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Oil and Gas Sector Update COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS UPDATE AND CORRESPONDING TARGET ADJUSTMENTS
We have revised our commodity price forecasts to reflect current market conditions. The table on Page 2 summarizes the changes in our commodity price forecast. We have increased our crude forecasts to reflect the continued risk associated with geopolitical issues in the Middle East and North Africa. Our natural gas price forecast remains unchanged as it continues to reflect current market conditions. We have updated our evaluation on selected companies based on our revised commodity price forecasts. These selected companies have minor or no operational changes which would affect expected production, and the changes in the price forecasts do not cause a material change in capital spending plans. We have provided a table on Page 3 highlighting key changes in our evaluation. We have also adjusted our foreign exchange forecast (See Page 2 for summary table). ANALYST: STEPHEN CALDERWOOD, P.ENG, MBA
stephen.calderwood@jenningscapital.com +1.403.292.9483
Revised Commodity Price Forecasts Overall, we have increased our price forecasts for crude oil and maintained our natural gas price forecast.
Jennings Crude Price Forecasts 21-Jul-11 7-Mar-11 Effective Crude Oil: WTI (US$/Bbl) $94.46 2011 Q1A $93.50 $102.28 2011 Q2A $99.00 $97.50 2011 Q3 $96.50 $98.50 2011 Q4 $94.00 $98.25 2011 $95.75 $100.00 2012 $92.25 $100.00 2013 $91.75 $100.00 2014 $91.50 $100.00 2015 $93.50 Crude Oil: Brent (US$/Bbl) $105.21 2011 Q1A $103.50 $116.80 2011 Q2A $105.00 $115.00 2011 Q3 $102.50 $112.00 2011 Q4 $100.00 $112.25 2011 $102.75 $110.00 2012 $98.25 $107.00 2013 $95.75 $104.00 2014 $93.50 $102.00 2015 $93.50 Crude Oil: Edmonton Par (CDN$/Bbl) $88.60 2011 Q1A $87.50 $102.39 2011 Q2A $96.00 $95.00 2011 Q3 $95.00 $94.50 2011 Q4 $93.00 $95.00 2011 $92.88 $98.00 2012 $93.50 $100.00 2013 $95.00 $102.50 2014 $95.00 $103.00 2015 $97.00
Jennings Natural Gas Price Forecasts 21-Jul-11 7-Mar-11 Effective Natural Gas: Henry Hub (US$/MMBtu) $4.18 2011 Q1A $4.25 $4.36 2011 Q2A $4.00 $4.25 2011 Q3 $4.25 $4.50 2011 Q4 $4.50 $4.25 2011 $4.25 $4.75 2012 $4.75 $5.50 2013 $5.50 $6.00 2014 $6.00 $6.25 2015 $6.25 Natural Gas: AECO (CDN$/MMBtu) $3.77 2011 Q1A $3.75 $3.89 2011 Q2A $3.50 $3.75 2011 Q3 $3.75 $4.00 2011 Q4 $4.00 $3.75 2011 $3.75 $4.50 2012 $4.50 $5.25 2013 $5.25 $5.75 2014 $5.75 $6.00 2015 $6.00
US$/C$
The information contained in this report was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable. We do not represent that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. Any opinions expressed herein reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change. Jennings Capital Inc. and/or employees from time to time may hold shares, options or warrants on any issue included in this report and may buy or sell such securities. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy securities. Member CIPF. Jennings Capital (USA) Inc. is a member of SIPC.
Updated Company Evaluation Incorporating the revised commodity price forecasts into our evaluation models has resulted in the following target changes. Analyst: Greg Chornoboy
Company Ticker Year End 31-Dec 31-Dec 31-Dec 31-Dec 31-Mar 31-Dec 31-Dec 31-Dec Price Shares O/S (MM) 244 98 110 88 94 376 464 35 Mkt. Cap. ($MM) 1,477 217 959 277 38 49 137 144 Target New Old ($/Sh) $10.50 $10.50 $7.00 $7.00 $16.50 $14.25 $4.00 $4.00 $0.70 $0.70 $0.40 $0.50 $0.90 $0.90 $8.25 $7.75 Rec. New Buy Spec. Buy Spec. Buy Spec. Buy Spec. Buy Spec. Buy Spec. Buy Spec. Buy Old Buy Spec. Buy Spec. Buy Spec. Buy Spec. Buy Spec. Buy Spec. Buy Spec. Buy CFPS 2PNAV 2011E New 2011E Old 2012E New 2012E Old New Old ($/Sh) ($/Sh) ($/Sh) US$0.80 US$0.73 US$1.05 US$1.03 US$7.67 US$7.03 US$0.36 US$0.31 US$1.35 US$1.29 US$4.54 US$4.22 US$2.49 US$2.22 US$3.49 US$3.16 US$15.89 US$13.06 $0.10 $0.12 $0.07 $0.11 $2.98 $2.97 ($0.01) ($0.01) ($0.01) ($0.01) $0.54 $0.33 US$0.03 US$0.05 US$0.05 US$0.07 US$0.32 US$0.34 $0.02 $0.02 $0.07 $0.06 $0.19 $0.17 US$1.51 US$1.89 US$2.16 US$2.00 US$6.86 US$6.08
Bankers Petroleum Calvalley Petroleum Coastal Energy Corridor Resources Primeline Energy Sea Dragon Energy Valeura Energy Winstar Resources
Brownstone Energy Canacol Energy Gran Tierra Energy Pacific Rubiales Energy Petroamerica Oil Petrodorado Energy PetroMagdalena Energy Petrominerales Quetzal Energy Suroco Energy
BWN-V CNE-T GTE-T PRE-T PTA-V PDQ-V PMD-V PMG-T QEI-V SRN-V
30-Jun $0.73 30-Jun $0.94 31-Dec $6.42 31-Dec $25.00 31-Dec $0.14 31-Dec $0.28 31-Dec $1.31 31-Dec $28.15 31-Dec $0.09 31-Dec $0.59
Delphi Energy Equal Energy Midway Energy Novus Energy Palliser Oil & Gas Reliable Energy Ltd. Renegade Petroleum Torquay Oil Corp. Westfire Energy Wild Stream Exploration
DEE-T EQU-T MEL-T NVS-V PXL-V REL-V RPL-V TOC'A-V WFE-T WSX-V
31-Dec $2.33 31-Dec $6.20 31-Dec $4.64 31-Dec $0.94 31-Dec $1.24 31-Dec $0.39 31-Dec $3.20 31-Dec $1.58 31-Dec $8.15 31-Dec $12.22
The information contained in this report was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable. We do not represent that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. Any opinions expressed herein reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change. Jennings Capital Inc. and/or employees from time to time may hold shares, options or warrants on any issue included in this report and may buy or sell such securities. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy securities. Member CIPF. Jennings Capital (USA) Inc. is a member of SIPC.
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Security Abbreviations: NVS (non-voting shares); RVS (restricted voting shares); RS (restricted shares); SVS (subordinate voting shares); MV (multiple voting shares). Quarterly Recommendation Hierarchy: Is a ranking distribution identifying the percentage of total, number, and the investment banking relationship (%) for all recommendation categories that can be found on the Jennings Capital Inc. website (www.JenningsCapital.com). Analyst Stock Holdings: Equity Research analysts, associates and members of their households are permitted to invest in securities covered by them. No Jennings Capital Inc. analyst, associate or employee involved in the preparation of an analyst report is permitted to effect a trade in the security of an issuer whereby there is an outstanding recommendation for a period of 30 calendar days before and 5 calendar days after issuance of the research report Compensation: The compensation of the analyst and/or associate who prepared this research report is based upon in part, the overall revenues and profitability of Jennings Capital Inc. Analysts are compensated on a salary and bonus system. Some factors affecting compensation including the productivity and quality of research, support to institutional, retail and investment bankers, net revenues to the equity and investment banking revenue as well as compensation levels for analysts at competing brokerage dealers. Analysts are not directly compensated for specific Investment Banking transactions. Jennings Capital Inc. Relationships: Jennings Capital Inc. may receive or seek compensation for investment banking services from all issuers under research coverage within the next 3 months. Jennings Capital Inc. or its officers, employees or affiliates may execute transactions in securities mentioned in this report that may not be consistent with the reports conclusions.
Analyst Certification I, Greg Chornoboy, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that I have not, am not, and will not receive, directly or indirectly, compensation in exchange for expressing the specific recommendations or views in this report. I, David Ricciardi, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that I have not, am not, and will not receive, directly or indirectly, compensation in exchange for expressing the specific recommendations or views in this report. I, Trenton Latos, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that I have not, am not, and will not receive, directly or indirectly, compensation in exchange for expressing the specific recommendations or views in this report.
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3 2 2 2,3 1 2 2
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Note: We initiated coverage on Alange Energy Corp. on November 6, 2009 with a BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a target price of C$0.85. Share price at that time was C$0.54. In our Sector Valuation Update dated January 15, 2010, we increased our target price to C$0.90. Share price at that time was C$0.66. On May 5, 2010 we decreased our target price to C$0.80. Share price at that time was C$0.425. In our Sector Valuation Update dated July 13, 2010, we decreased our target price to C$0.75. Share price at that time was C$0.35. On August 9, 2010 we increased our target price to C$0.80. Share price at that time was C$0.44. On September 1, 2010 we decreased our target price to C$0.65. Share price at that time was C$0.375. In our Sector Valuation Update dated October 19, 2010, we increased our target price to C$0.75. Share price at that time was C$0.59. On January 13, 2011, we placed our recommendation, target and risk rating all UNDER REVIEW. On January 13, 2011, we revised our recommendation to SPECULATIVE BUY and our risk rating to SPECULATIVE, and we decreased our target price to C$0.40. Share price at that time was C$0.32. On May 3, 2011, we downgraded our recommendation to HOLD and reduced our target price to C$0.30. Share price at that time was C$0.28. On July 19, 2011, Alange Energy Corp. changed its name to Petromagdalena Energy Corp. and consolidated its shares on a one-forseven basis. We adjusted our 12-month target to C$2.10 per share to reflect the one-for-seven share consolidation and revised our recommendation to SPECULATIVE BUY. Post-consolidation share price at that time was C$1.30. Note: We initiated coverage on Bankers Petroleum Ltd. on April 1, 2009 with a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a C$2.35 target price. Share price at that time was C$1.76. On May 7, 2009 we increased our target price to $3.00. Share price at that time was C$1.84. On July 13, 2009 we increased our target price to C$3.25. Share price at that time was C$1.74. On August 18, 2009 we increased our target price to C$4.50. Share price at that time was C$3.38. On October 7, 2009 we increased our target price to C$5.75. Share price at that time was C$4.50. On January 13, 2010 we increased our target price to C$8.25. Share price at that time was C$6.06. On March 3, 2010 we increased our target price to C$9.25. Share price at that time was C$6.06. On April 13, 2010 we increased our target price to C$11.25. Share price at that time was C$9.12. On July 21, 2010 we upgraded our recommendation to BUY, but reduced our target price to C$10.50. Share price at that time was C$7.36. Note: We initiated coverage on Brownstone Ventures Inc. on January 12, 2011 with a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a C$1.75 target price. Share price at that time was C$0.96. On January 18, 2011, Brownstone Ventures Inc. changed its name to Brownstone Energy Inc. Note: We initiated coverage of Calvalley Petroleum Inc. on January 9, 2006 with a 12-month target of $6.75 and a BUY recommendation. The Share price at the time was $4.52. On February 10, 2006, we increased our target to $8.35, while maintaining our BUY recommendation. Share price was $6.70. On April 20, 2006, we increased our 12-month target to $9.25 with a BUY recommendation. The share price was $8.19. July 25, 2006, we increased our 12-month target to $12.60 and a STRONG BUY recommendation. Share price was $6.19. On November 2, 2006, we decreased our target to $11.85 while maintaining our STRONG BUY recommendation. Share price at the time was $7.55. On December 13, 2006, we decreased our recommendation to BUY while maintaining our target of $11.85. On January 15, 2007, we increased our recommendation to STRONG BUY while maintaining our target of $11.85. On March 19, 2007, we reduced our target to $11.10, while maintaining a STRONG BUY recommendation. On August 28, 2007, we reduced our target to $8.10, and our recommendation to SPECULATIVE BUY. On April 14, 2008 we reduced our target to C$6.80. Share price at the time was C$3.70. On October 29, 2008, we decreased our target price to C$5.50. Share price at that time was C$1.33. On December 2, 2008, we reduced our target price to C$3.00. Share price at that time was C$1.45. On February 27, 2009, we reduced our target price to C$2.25. Share price at that time was C$1.15. On May 14, 2009, we increased our target price to C$3.00. Share price at that time was C$1.59. On July 6, 2009, we increased our target price to C$3.25. Share price at that time was C$1.90. On January 15, 2010, we increased our target price to C$3.50. Share price at that time was C$2.39. On February 16, 2010, we increased our target to C$4.75. Share price at that time was C$2.57. On August 23, 2010, we increased our target price to C$5.25. Share price at that time was C$3.24. On October 19, 2010, we increased our target price to C$5.50. Share price at that time was $3.60. On January 11, 2011 we increased our target price to C$7.00. Share price at that time was C$4.95. On February 23, 2011 we increased our target price to C$8.25. Share price at that time was $3.95. On May 11, 2011, we reduced our target to C$7.75. Share price at that time was C$2.77. On July 13, 2011, we reduced our target to C$7.00. Share price at that time was C$2.21. Note: We initiated coverage on Canacol Energy Ltd. on December 16, 2009 with a BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a target price of C$.75. Share price at that time was C$0.49. In our Sector Valuation Update dated January 15, 2010, we increased our target price to C$0.85. Share price at that time was C$0.62. On July 2, 2010 we downgraded our recommendation to HOLD an, but increased our target price to C$0.90. Share price at that time was C$0.90. In our Sector Valuation Update dated July 13, 2010, we decreased our target price to C$0.85. Share price at that time was C$0.89. On August 10, 2010, we increased our target price to C$1.25. Share price at that time was C$1.22. On August 27, 2010, we increased our target price to C$1.35. Share price at that time was C$1.35. In our Sector Valuation Update dated October 19, 2010, we increased our target price to C$1.55. Share price at that time was C$1.51. On October 21, 2010, we increased our target price to C$1.70. Share price at that time was C$1.64. On October 27, 2010, we increased our target to C$1.90 and upgraded our recommendation to BUY. Share price at that time was C$1.67. On February 24, 2011, we increased our target price to C$2.00. Share price at that time was C$1.61. On April 25, 2011, we decreased our target price to C$1.85. Share price at that time was C$1.21. Note: We initiated coverage on Coastal Energy Company on November 17, 2010 with a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a C$7.50 target price. Share price at that time was C$4.68. On December 9, 2010, we increased our target price to C$8.00. Share price at that time was C$5.72. On January 11, 2011 we increased our target price to C$8.75. Share price at that time was $6.72. On March 7, 2011, we increased our target to C$9.50. Share price at the time was C$7.32. On May 17, 2011, we increased our target to C$11.25. Share price at the time was C$6.15. On July 4, 2011, we increased our target to C$14.25. Share price at the time was C$8.46. Note: On March 28, 2006 we initiated coverage on Corridor Resources Inc. with a BUY recommendation and a C$5.80 target price. Share price at that time was C$5.00. On May 9, 2006 we introduced a risked longer-term potential target price of C$10.50. Share price at that time was C$5.37. On August 17, 2006 we raised our target price to C$6.60. Share price at that time was C$5.80. On October 12, 2006 we lowered our target price to C$5.95. Share price at that time was C$5.35. On January 22, 2007 we raised our target price to C$7.15 and introduced a risk rating of ABOVE AVERAGE as a result of additions to our rating system. Share price at that time was C$5.60. On April 4, 2007, we increased our target price to C$9.90. Share price at that time was C$8.70. On July 5, 2007 we raised our target price to C$13.65, while maintaining our BUY recommendation. Share price at that time was C$11.45. On December 18, 2007 we decreased our target price to C$12.30. Share price at that time was C$7.40. On April 1, 2008 we reduced our target price to C$11.25. Share price at that time was $6.64. On October 16, 2008 we reduced our target price to C$9.00. Share price at that time was C$2.15. On December 2, 2008 we reduced our target price to C$4.25. Share price at that time was C$2.34. On March 27, 2009 we decreased our target price to C$3.50. Share price at that time was C$2.05. On April 14, 2009, in our Oil and Gas Sector Valuation Update, we decreased our target price to C$3.00. Share price at that time was C$1.98. On September 1, 2009 we downgraded our recommendation to SPECULATIVE BUY. Share price at that time was C$2.57. On September 16, 2009 we increased our target price to C$4.15. Share price at that time was C$3.30. On November 30, 2009 we increased our target price to C$5.25. Share price at that time was C$4.17. On December 8, 2009 we increased our target price to C$6.50. Share price at that time was C$5.10. On February 22, 2010 we decreased our target price to C$6.00. Share price
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at that time was C$4.41. On April 12, 2010 we increased our target price to C$6.25. Share price at that time was C$5.31. On October 19, 2010 we increased our target price to C$8.75. Share price at that time was C$6.10. On December 7, 2010 we decreased our target price to C$7.25. Share price at that time was C$5.19. On April 5, 2011, we decreased our target price to C$6.50. Share price at that time was C$5.19. On June 1, 2011, we decreased the target to C$4.00. Share price at that time was C$3.18. Note: We initiated coverage on Delphi Energy Corp. on March 5, 2010 with a BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a target price of C$3.25 per share. Share price at that time was C$2.79. In our Sector Valuation Update dated October 19, 2010, we increased our target price to C$3.25. Share price at that time was C$2.27. Note: We initiated coverage on Enterra Energy Trust on May 27, 2010 with a BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a target price of C$3.25 per share. Share price at that time was C$2.79. On June 1, 2010 the Company converted from a Trust to a Corporation and changed its name to Equal Energy Ltd. Each trust unit was exchanged for one-third of one common share, and, accordingly, our target price became C$9.75. The common shares began trading on a post-consolidation basis on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol EQU, on June 1, 2010, and on the Toronto Stock Exchange, also under the symbol EQU, on June 3, 2020. On June 8, 2010 we increased our target price to C$10.25. Share price at that time was C$7.40. On July 19, 2010 we decreased our target price to C$9.50. Share price at that time was C$5.63. On October 6, 2010, we decreased our target price to C$8.75. Share price at that time was C$4.66. In our Sector Valuation Update dated March 7, 2011, we increased our target price to C$9.00. Share price at that time was C$7.05. On March 31, 2011, we increased our target price to C$11.50. Share price at that time was C$7.85. On May 30, 2011, we increased our target price to C$12.25. Share price at that time was C$7.20. Note: We initiated coverage on Gran Tierra Energy Inc. on September 14, 2009 with a BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a C$5.25 target price. Share price at that time was C$4.38. In our Oil and Gas Sector Valuation Updated on October 19, 2009, we increased our target price to C$6.00. Share price at that time was C$5.00. In our Sector Valuation Update dated January 15, 2010, we increased our target price to C$6.50. Share price at that time was C$5.41. In our Sector Valuation Update dated July 13, 2010, we decreased our target price to C$6.25. Share price at that time was C$5.42. On July 15, 2010 we increased our target price to C$7.25. Share price at that time was C$5.46. On August 26, 2010 we increased our target price to C$8.00. Share price at that time was C$6.40. On August 31, 2010 we increased our target price to C$8.25. Share price at that time was C$6.61. In our Sector Valuation Update dated October 19, 2010, we increased our target price to C$8.75. Share price at that time was C$7.71. On October 25, 2010, we increased our target price to C$9.50. Share price at that time was C$7.57. On January 18, 2011, we increased our target price to C$10.00. Share price at that time was C$8.29. On February 25, 2011, we increased our target price to C$10.50. Share price at that time was C$8.78. Note: We initiated coverage on Midway Energy Ltd. on March 24, 2010 with a BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a target price of C$3.95. Share price at that time was C$3.20. On July 13, 2010 in our Section Valuation Update, we decreased the target price to C$3.75. Share price at that time was C$3.07. On September 23, 2010, we increased our target price to C$4.25. Share price at that time was C$3.45. In our Sector Valuation Update dated October 19, 2010, we increased our target price to C$4.50. Share price at that time was C$3.58. On January 21, 2011 we increased our target price to C$5.50. Share price at that time was C$5.01. On February 1, 2011 we increased our target price to C$6.00. Share price at that time was $4.42. Note: We initiated coverage on Novus Energy Inc. on February 23, 2010 with a BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a target price of C$1.20 per share. Share price at that time was C$0.88. On July 14, 2010 we decreased our target price to C$1.10. Share price at that time was C$0.83. On August 30, 2010 we decreased our target price to C$1.00. Share price at that time was C$0.81. In our Sector Valuation Update dated October 19, 2010, we increased our target price to C$1.05. Share price at that time was C$0.88. On our Sector Valuation Update dated January 11, 2011 we increased our target price to C$1.10. Share price at that time was C$1.04. On February 1, 2011 we increased our target price to C$1.25. Share price at that time was C$1.14. On February 3, 2011 we increased our share price to C$1.40. Share price at that time was C$1.30. On our Sector Valuation Update dated March 7, 2011 we increased our target price to C$1.45. Share price at that time was C$1.37. Note: We initiated coverage on Palliser Oil & Gas Corp. on March 24, 2010 with a BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a target price of C$2.00 per share. Share price at that time was C$1.27. In our Sector Valuation Update dated January 11, 2011 we increased our target price to C$2.10. Share price at that time was C$1.49. On January 27, 2011 we increased our target price to C$2.35. Share price at that time was C$1.75. On February 1, 2011 we increased our target price to C$2.85. Share price at that time was C$1.95. On March 25, 2011 we increased our target price to C$3.00. Share price at that time was C$1.87. Note: We initiated coverage on Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp. on June 30, 2009 with a BUY recommendation, an AVERAGE risk rating and an C$11.75 target price. Share price at that time was C$9.60. On July 28, 2009 we increased our target price to $13.50. Share price at that time was C$11.09. On September 8, 2009 we increased our target price to C$16.25. Share price at that time was C$13.80. In our Oil and Gas Sector Valuation Updated on October 19, 2009, we increased our target price to C$18.75. Share price at that time was C$14.00. On November 16, 2009 we increased our target price to C$20.00. Share price at that time was C$15.36. In our Sector Valuation Update dated January 15, 2010, we increased our target price to C$21.75. Share price at that time was C$15.00. On March 16, 2010 we increased our target price to C$24.50. Share price at that time was C$19.00. On April 26, 2010 we increased our target price to C$29.25. Share price at that time was C$21.27. In our Sector Valuation Update dated July 13, 2010, we decreased our target price to C$29.00. Share price at that time was C$24.16. On October 13, 2010 we increased our target price to C$34.50. Share price at that time was C$30.80. In our Sector Valuation Update dated October 19, 2010, we increased our target price to C$36.00. Share price at that time was C$29.75. In our Sector Valuation Updated dated January 11, 2011, we increased our target price to C$37.00. Share price at that time was C$31.47. On January 12, 2011, we increased our target price to C$40.00. Share price at the time was C$33.79. On March 7, 2011, in our Sector Update, we increased the target to C$41.00. Share price at that time was C$34.51. Note: We initiated coverage on Petroamerica Oil Corp. on October 6, 2010 with a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a target price of $0.80. Share price at that time was C$0.295. In our Sector Valuation Update dated October 19, 2010, we increased our target price to C$0.85. Share price at that time was C$0.42. On November 29, 2010, we decreased our target to C$0.80. Share price at that time was C$0.475. In our Sector Valuation Update dated January 11, 2011, we increased our target to C$0.85. Share price at that time was C$0.64. On March 7, 2011, we decreased our target price to C$0.75. Share price at that time was C$0.455. On May 25, 2011, we decreased our target price to C$0.20 and revised our risk rating to SPECULATIVE. Share price at that time was C$0.17. Note: We initiated coverage on Petrodorado Energy Ltd. on November 23, 2010 with a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a target price of $1.00. Share price at that time was C$0.60. Note: We initiated coverage on Petrominerales Ltd. on January 30, 2009 with a BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a target price of C$9.00 per share. Share price at that time was C$6.15. On March 4, 2009 we increased our target price to C$11.50. Share price at that time was C$9.59. On April 28, 2009 we increased our target price to C$14.25. Share price at that time was C$10.62. On August 10, 2009 we decreased our
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target price to C$14.00. Share price at that time was C$12.30. On October 20, 2009 we downgraded our recommendation to HOLD and increased our target price to C$16.50. Share price at that time was C$16.30. On January 12, 2010 we increased our target price to C$22.00. Share price at that time was C$21.76. On February 16, 2010 we upgraded our recommendation to BUY and increased our target price to C$30.50. Share price at that time was C$26.55. On February 22, 2010 we increased our target price to C$32.00. Share price at that time was C$28.57. On March 29, 2010 we increased our target price to C$38.25. Share price at that time was C$31.52. In our Sector Valuation Update dated July 13, 2010, we decreased our target price to C$36.00. Share price at that time was C$23.77. On September 13, 2010 we decreased our target price to C$32.50. Share price at that time was C$24.95. On October 19, 2010, in our Sector Valuation Update, we increased our target price to C$35.00. Share price at that time was C$25.70. On December 14, 2010, we increased our target to C$36.00. Share price at that time was C$32.15. On January 5, 2011, we increased our target to C$41.00. Share price at that time was C$33.31. In our sector valuation update dated January 11, 2011, we increased our target to C$43.00. Share price at that time was C$35.47. On March 7, 2011, in our Sector Update, we increased the target to C$44.00. Share price at that time was C$39.77. Note: We initiated coverage on Primeline Energy Holdings Inc. on July 14, 2006 with a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation and a C$4.10 target price. Share price at that time was C$2.50. On May 4, 2007 we introduced an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating due to additions to our rating system. Share price at that time was C$2.25. On September 26, 2007 we decreased our target price to C$3.75. Share price at that time was C$1.91. On December 2, 2008 we reduced our target price to $1.00. Share price at that time was C$0.26. On December 9, 2008 we introduced an Unrisked Long Term Potential Target of C$3.75. Share price at that time was C$0.35. On February 2, 2010 we increased our target price to C$1.50. Share price at that time was C$0.64. On March 19, 2010 we increased our target price to C$2.00. Share price at that time was C$1.08. On June 4, 2010 we decreased our target price to C$0.70. Share price at that time was C$0.50. Note: We initiated coverage on Quetzal Energy Ltd. on December 14, 2010 with a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a target price of $0.40. Share price at that time was C$0.185. On February 7, 2011, we decreased our target to C$0.30. Share price at that time was C$0.135. Note: We initiated coverage on Reliable Energy Ltd. on May 2, 2011 with a BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a target price of $0.60. Share price at that time was C$0.46. Note: We initiated coverage on Renegade Petroleum Ltd. on September 20, 2010 with a BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a target price of C$5.25 per share. Share price at that time was C$3.35. In our Sector Valuation Update dated October 19, 2010, we increased our target price to C$5.75. Share price at that time was C$3.70. On November 30, 2010, we decreased our target to C$5.25. Share price at that time was C$4.00. On February 1, 2011 we increased our target price to C$6.00. Share price at that time was C$4.42. Note: We initiated coverage on Sea Dragon Energy Inc. on March 19, 2010 with a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a target price of C$0.75. On July 13, 2010, we decreased our target price to C$0.60. Share price at that time was C$0.28. On January 13, 2011 we decreased our target price to C$0.50. Share price at that time was $0.31. Note: We initiated coverage on Suroco Energy Inc. on March 8, 2010 with a BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a target price of C$0.85 per share. Share price at that time was C$0.63. On April 6, 2010, we increased our target price to C$0.90. Share price at that time was C$0.72. On April 23, 2010, we placed our recommendation, target and risk rating all UNDER REVIEW. On July 20, 2010, we resumed coverage with a BUY recommendation, a target price of C$1.00 and a risk rating of ABOVE AVERAGE. Share price at that time was C$0.43. On September 10, 2010, we decreased our target price to C$0.90. Share price at that time was C$0.45. On October 5, 2010, we decreased our target price to C$0.85. Share price at that time was C$0.475. In our Sector Valuation Update dated October 19, 2010, we increased our target price to C$0.90. Share price at that time was C$0.48. On October 27, 2010, we decreased our target to C$0.85. Share price at that time was C$0.61. On January 17, 2011, we increased our target price to C$1.25. Share price at that time was C$0.86. On May 10, 2011, we increased our target to C$1.40. Share price at that time was C$0.78. Note: We initiated coverage on WestFire Energy Ltd. on March 18, 2010 with a BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a target price of C$9.75 per share. Share price at that time was C$8.20. On May 4, 2010 we increased our target price to C$10.75. Share price at that time was C$8.13. In our Sector Valuation Update dated July 13, 2010, we decreased our target price to C$9.75. Share price at that time was C$6.11. On August 17, 2010, we decreased our target price to C$9.25. Share price at that time was C$5.25. On February 1, 2011 we increased our target price to C$9.75. Share price at that time was C$8.00. On March 9, 2011 we increased our target price to C$11.75. Share price at that time was C$8.91. Note: We initiated coverage report on Wild Stream Exploration Inc. on March 9, 2010 with a BUY recommendation, an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating and a target price of $7.50. Share price at the time was C$6.35. In our Sector Valuation Update dated July 13, 2010, we decreased our target price to C$6.75. Share price at that time was C$5.57. On August 24, 2010, we increased our target price to C$7.25. Share price at that time was C$6.55. On October 19, 2010, in our Sector Valuation Update, we increased our target price to C$8.00. Share price at that time was C$5.70. On November 30, 2010, we increased our target to C$9.25 and changed our recommendation to a HOLD. Share price at that time was C$8.79. On January 11, 2011, in our Sector Valuation Update, we increased our target price to C$9.50. Share price at that time was C$9.15. On January 31, 2011 we increased our target price to C$11.00. Share price at that time was C$10.25. On February 1, 2011 we increased our target price to C$11.50. Share price at that time was C$10.70. On February 16, 2011 we increased our target price to C$12.50. Share price at that time was C$11.09. On March 7, 2011 in our Sector Valuation Update, we increased our target price to C$13.00. Share price at that time was C$11.15. On April 15, 2011 we increased our target price to C$14.75. Share price at that time was C$11.31. Note: We initiated coverage on Winstar Resources Ltd. on July 3, 2008 with a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation, a C$7.75 target price and an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating. Share price at that time was C$5.50. On October 21, 2008 we reduced our target price to C$6.50, but maintained our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation. Share price at that time was C$2.01. On December 2, 2008 we reduced our target price to C$4.50. Share price at that time was C$1.74. On February 17, 2009 we reduced our target price to C$2.50. Share price at that time was C$1.20. On April 22, 2009 we increased our target price to C$3.00. Share price at that time was C$1.80. On November 23, 2009 we increased our target price to C$4.00. Share price at that time was C$2.41. In our Sector Valuation Update dated January 15, 2010, we increased our target price to C$4.50. Share price at that time was C$3.10. On May 26, 2010 we increased our target price to C5.25. Share price at that time was C$3.71. In our Sector Valuation Update dated July 13, 2010, we increased our target price to C$5.75. Share price at that time was C$3.68. On September 24, 2010, we decreased our target price to C$5.25. Share price at that time was C$3.40. On October 19, 2010, we increased our target price to C$5.50. Share price at that time was C$3.84. On January 11, 2011 we increased our target price to C$6.75. Share price at that time was $5.74. On February 22, 2011 we decreased our target price to C$6.25. Share price at that time was $4.31. Note: We initiated coverage on Valeura Energy Inc. on June 21, 2011 with a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation, a C$0.90 target price and an ABOVE AVERAGE risk rating.