ADB Water Learning Week Asian Development Bank, Manila, The Philippines, November 7, 2011

OUT OF THE BLUE: CHOICES FOR A SUSTAINABLE PLANET AFTER RIO+20
András Szöllösi-Nagy UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education

The Global Water System

• Water Cycling Deeply Embedded in Earth System • Interconnections are Strong • Change to One Part Reverberates Throughout

WATER

•The cycle is changing? •Increased risks? •Growing vulnerability? •More disasters ? •Less water for people? •Crisis is looming? •What crisis? •Global or local? 3

First message: Humans are changing the global water system in a globally-significant way without….. adequate knowledge of the system and thus its response to change

Are we really dealing with the most important questions?

5

Global change drivers:
• Population growth, movement and age structures • Geo-political changes and realignments • Trade and subsidies • Technological changes • Climate change

U.S. Bureau of the Census

World Cities exceeding 5 million residents

1950

Source: U.N. Population Division

World Cities exceeding 5 million residents

2015

Source: U.N. Population Division

Global change impacts
• Global change is more than global climate variability/change • It has natural PLUS human/social dimensions • A constellation of changes, many global in domain
For example, we see large changes in:

Mackenzie et al (2002)

Richards (1991), WRI (1990)

Reid & Miller (1989)

NOAA

Vitousek (1994)

From: Steffen et al. 2004

The Earth System: Coupling the Physical, Biogeochemical and Human Components

6

High Risk for Instabilities
5

IPCC Projections for 2100
Global Temperature (°C)

4

3

Lower Risk for Instabilities
N.H. Temperature (°C) 1 0.5 0 -0.5 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2

1

0

(1 Aug 2007 Sirajgong District, Bangladesh)

Flood Disaster in Pakistan (August, 2010)

Flood Disaster in Korea (September 21, 2010)

Flood Disaster in Australia (January, 2011)

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Does the cycle accelerate?

Climate is changing…
• There are many factors leading to

changes in the rate of climate change

• Whatever the main reason is, the climate variations prompt for

developing the water management strategies that take climate uncertainties into account
– – – – –

•  the need for
More observation systems Better predictive modelling tools Methods to handle uncertainty Changes in design and adaptive management practices Changes in educational programmes at all levels

Climate change: What do we know?
• Global Mean Temperature have increased • Greenhouse Gases play a role • Reducing Emissions alone will not avoid impacts

South Cascade Glacier (Washington State, USA)

1928

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VERNAGTFERNER
1998 1978

Discharge (m3s-1)

8

4

0

u 19-J

l

l 4-Ju 2

u 29-J

l

ug 3-A

ug 8-A

ug ug ug ug 18-A 28-A 13-A 23-A

(Source: Bayerische Akademie der Wissenschaften, Glaziologische Kommission)

Major floods and droughts worldwide in 2002
Germany

Germany

China China

Korea Flood Drought

ドイツ Austria France Turkey Senegal Ethiopia Nepal Bangladesh India Sri Lanka Kenya Indonesia Micronesia Peru Bolivia Uruguay Philippines Vietnam Ecuador Czech Russia Afghanistan China Korea

USA

USA
Mexico Haiti/ Jamaica

Kenya

There is pressing need to develop advanced risk management on water hazard in order to secure human life and ensure sustainable socio-economic development and poverty alleviation.

ADAPTATION OPTIONS:
       MORE STORAGE MORE HYDROPOWER MORE GROUNDWATER USE MORE INLAND NAVIGATION

WE WILL NEED MORE STORAGE

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Physical Vulnerability to Weather-related Disaster and sea level rise (SLR)

The map shows area of natural vulnerability to floods, storms, droughts and sea level rise; areas vulnerable to extreme temperature events are not shown.
Source: Human Impacts Report, 2009

Socio-economic Vulnerability to Climate Change
Measured by income, investment in adaptation and early warning systems

Source: Human Impact Report, 2009

GLOBAL FRESHWATER RESOURCES
Relation between water availability and population

UN Millennium Development Goals (MDG)
Agreed by 189 countries in 2000 to be achieved by 2015

(Source: www.betterbytheyear.org)

2000: If the current trend continues, sub-Saharan Africa will not reach MDG water target

Progress in drinking water coverage, 19902002 (UNICEF/WHO JMP)

Drinking-water 2010
The world is ALMOST on track

Source: WHO/UNICEF 2010

2000: Many countries not on track to reach MDG sanitation target

Progress in sanitation coverage, 19902002 (UNICEF/WHO JMP)

Sanitation 2010 The world is not on track

Source: WHO/UNICEF 2010

WHAT DO WE HAVE TO RETHINK AFTER RIO+20?

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Second message:

LOOMING WATER CRISES
The time of easy water is over

WAR OVER WATER?

The Indus River and the Ganges Brahmaputra-Maghna River Basin

The Tigris Euphrates basin

The Aral Sea basin

Third message:

WATER IS A SOURCE OF COOPERATION: WATER CONNECTS AND DOES NOT DIVIDE

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Aquifer – Transboundary Issues

Rainfall affects growth..
the case of Zimbabwe
15.0 3.0

Real GDP growth (%)

10.0 1.0 5.0 0.0 -1.0

0.0

-2.0 -3.0 -4.0

-5.0 Real GDP grow th (%) Variability in Rainfall (Meter) -10.0

Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe

Years

Variability in Rainfall (Meter)

2.0

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

History of US Dam & Reservoir Construction

1800

1900

1950

2000

2000
• 700% increase in water held by river systems • Several years of residence time change in many basins • Tripling of river runoff travel times globally (from 20 up to 60 days) • Substantial impact on aquatic biodiversity • Interception of 30% of continental TSS flux

Stored Runoff
< 2% annual flow 2 10 25 50 100 >100

From: Vörösmarty et al. 2004, Eos-AGU Trans.

Infrastructure gap: Water storage [m3/person]

Water storage per person (m3)
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 6,150 4,729 3,255 2,486 746 43 Thailand Australia Ethiopia North America South Africa China Brazil Laos 1,287 1,406

Water Stress Changes to 2025 (scenario)

• 80% of future stress from
population & development, not climate change!

•Correct Priorities?
(E.g. 85% US global change research funding to climate and carbon)

Vörösmarty et al. 2000

Water hazard as a major challenge
Intensifying and increasing occurrence of water related hazard in many part of the world Serious concern on climate change such as extreme hydrologic events and sea level rising

FLOOD LOSSES IN FUNCTION OF GDP

Damages of Floods in 1990's
100,000
Asia

Economic Losses

China

(Million USD)

10,000

Japan Europe

1,000

N.Am Others

100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

Death Tolls (Persons)

Fukuoka Flood in 1999

(Source : MLIT)

Urban expansion taking place downward  Underground flood risk Recent developments  Long term risks are not experienced

(Source: Herat, UNU)

Fukuoka simulation

At Hakata station

Volume of water entered into underground space: •2,017 m3 (simulated volume) •1,320 m3 (total pumped water station)

Human Fingerprint on Land-to-Ocean Linkages --Intercepted sediments that “nourish” our coastlines

• Coastal zone now gets 30% less sediment
• 700% increase in water held in rivers • Tripling of river runoff travel times

Vörösmarty et al. 2003

Fourth message:

“There is no sustainable development without adequate information about the state of the Earth and its environment”
Statement at WSSD

Flow of information in a Hydroinformatics system Data  Models  Knowledge  Decisions
Earth observation, Numerical Weather monitoring Prediction Models Data modelling, Access to integration with modelling hydrologic and results hydraulic models Decision support

Map of flood probability

(Source: D. Solomatine)

Modelling is the heart of Hydroinformatics
• Technologies ensuring the whole information cycle, and integrates

data, models, and humans

∂Q ∂  Q 2  ∂h   + gA − gAS o + gAS f = 0 + ∂t ∂x  A  ∂x  

.

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One-day-ahead forecasts of the KALMAN-filtered DLCM structural and AR(1) autoregressive (stochastic) combined model with the forecast error standard deviation (+/- σ) One-day-ahead forecast error sequence.

Remotely sensed data

(Source: D. Solomatine) 62

High Technology Earth Systems Tools •Satellite data •Simulation models •Geospatial analysis tools

Huge progress but…

Fifth message:

Our capacity to monitor remains limited

Where do we go from here?

THE WAY AHEAD

SO, WILL THERE BE ENOUGH WATER FORASIA IN THE 21ST CENTURY?

YES, BUT WE NEED SOLUTIONS NOW
6th World Water Forum, Marseille, March, 2012 7th World Water Forum, Daegu (?), March, 2015
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We need to generate …
• The political will to … • The capacity to … • The resources to … DO IT DO IT RIGHT DO IT RIGHT NOW

The challenge we all have
How to put water in the minds of people?

SIXTH MESSAGE:

WATER EDUCATION, CAPACITY BUILDING,

EFFECTIVE PARTNERSHIP

Alumni community: >14,800 alumni in 162 Countries
UNESCO-IHE Alumni Community

99% return to their home country 85% still active 25 years after graduation

0 - 50

51-150

151-300

301-500

501-850

851-1200

Examples for Partnerships & Networks

Future: Global Campus of Water REFORM PROCESS Education and Research

What does that mean for Water Education?

7th and FINAL MESSAGE:

“Anybody who can solve the problems of water will be worthy of two Nobel Prizes, one for peace and one for science.”
(P resident John. F. K ennedy )
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