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Archimedes
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Newton
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Use of Hydraulic Modeling and Simulation Software to Optimize the Operation of Water Distribution Networks
Thesis submitted by Emad Shudifat In Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy at: French Institute of Forestry, Agricultural and Environmental Engineering
Laplace
Lagrange
( ENGREFMontpellier France )
Reynolds
January 03, 2007
Venturi Euler
Gauss
Hardy Cross
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Fourier
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Wasser מם י
წა ყლი पन ègua ाी
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nư c ớ
École Nationale Du Génie Rural Des Eaux et Des Forêts ENGREF – Montpellier
Société Du Canal De Provence SCP – Aix En Provence
MREA
Mission Régionale EauAgriculture MREA – Amman – Jordanie This PhD thesis submitted by:
Emad Shudifat
In Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy at:
French Institute of Forestry, Agricultural, and Environmental Engineering ( ENGREF Montpellier  France )
And it was orally defended in public on January 03, 2007 in the front of the following committee:
 Chairperson / Président :  Supervisor / Directeur de thèse :  Reviewer / Rapporteur :  Examiner / Examinateur :  Invitee / Invité :
i
Acknowledgements
Traditionally, acknowledgement is addressed only to persons whom we have met in person and who helped us to carry out our research work. But my first, and most earnest, acknowledgment must go to all scientists in mathematics, in physics, and in hydraulics, such whom appear on the cover page of this work, whom I did not meet in person but I will be ever respectful for them and for their scientific heritage that they left behind since hundreds and thousands of years, and this precious heritage is the core of this thesis. The greatest acknowledgement is addressed to MREA (Mission Régionale EauxAgriculture, French EmbassyAmmanJordan). I would not have been able to accomplish or even start this thesis without the support of MREA; in particular Mr. Rémy Courcier and Mlle. Alice Arrighi de Casanova who have been instrumental in ensuring my academic, professional, financial, and moral well being, and they deserve far more credit than I can ever give them. This work has been carried out during the years 2003–2006 at Canal de Provence Company in France (SCP). I wish to heartily thank the former for providing excellent facilities for both research and studying. I have always considered it a privilege to have had the opportunity of pursuing my Ph.D. at SCP. The time I have spent at the Engineering Division of SCP has been very fruitful, extremely enriching. I want especially to thank M. Pierre Rousset, M. Bruno Grawitz, M. Frédéric Bonnadier, M. Franck Sanfilippo, and M. Georges Favreau for having always been there for me and helped in most variable matters. Although I will not be able to acknowledge all the people who have directly or indirectly helped me during my work at SCP. I would like to gratefully acknowledge the supervision of my advisor Dr. PierreOlivier Malaterre during this work. He has given me constant advice throughout this study and his encouraging comments have been most valuable for me. I would also thank him for the reviewing of this thesis with great effort. I would also like to acknowledge Dr. Alain Delacourt who deserves particular credit for his careful support and who started me on the path I traveled during this thesis, and for his assistance with all types of administrative problems  at all times. He has always treated me with trust – and with patience, too. I also owe a huge debt of gratitude to Dr. Bogumil Ulanicki, Dr. Bryan Coulbeck, Dr. Peter Bounds and other friends from Water Software Systems at De Montfort University, located in Leicester City in England, who were instrumental in the success of my two visits to their university. They are acknowledged for numerous stimulating and relevant discussions, ii
and general advices throughout this study and teaching me how to use their software FINESSE. I want to thank several people from Agricultural and Environmental Engineering Research Institute (CemagrefBordeaux) for the time that they spent for me and for receiving me for one week to carry out some relevant research work. Dr. Jacques Sau, from University of Lyon I, is acknowledged for his contribution and for interesting towards my studies. Many thanks go also to the committee members. Far too many people to mention individually have assisted in so many ways during my work. They all have my sincere gratitude. I am grateful to all my friends from AixEnProvence and Montpellier Cities for being the surrogate family during the four years I stayed in France and for their continued moral support there after. “My Tunisians brothers” are especially thanked for the warm atmosphere. A penultimate and sincere thankyou goes to my wonderful family. I am very grateful to both of my parents for their love, support, and belief in me, and never once complaining about how infrequently I visit in Jordan while I was working on this study here in France. My final, and most heartfelt, acknowledgment must go to “my wife” whom I never even met nor found and, if she has been with me, she would surely have had a knack for boosting my morale during rough times, and she would have been acknowledged for her understanding, endless patience and encouragement when it is most required. Her support, encouragement, and companionship would have turned my journey through this thesis into a pleasure. For all that, and for being everything I am not, she has my everlasting love, and I dedicate this thesis to her.
iii
Abstract The two major contradictory objectives of the operation management of the water supply systems are security of water supply and minimizing the water production and transportation costs. Optimization tools can help to achieve these objectives. The efficient operation of water supply systems is a fundamental issue for extending the system’s service life as much as possible. Efficient operation requires knowledge of the system, supported by necessary tools that play essential roles in the management optimization of water supply systems. These tools are: modeling and simulation, calibration, demand prediction, and SCADA system. In general, these four mainstays represent the fundamental elements in the management optimization problem of an existing water supply system, and they constitute the core of this thesis. Besides, this thesis, carried out at the Canal de Provence Company (French: Société du Canal de Provence, SCP), shows a casestudy for a particular SCP’s water supply network, constituting the water supply system “Les Laures  Trapan  La Môle” composed of the main supply pipe of the same name and the sets of the derived storage tanks. This unit is commonly called “Toulon Est”, where a development program is proposed upon the decision of SCP to improve safety and reliability of the water supplying service for the eastern zone of the region of Toulon City. The program includes the construction of a reversible pumpturbine plant which will be installed close to a dam called Trapan, of 2 Mm3 (million cubic meter) in volume, and the construction of a new water tank at Col Gratteloup. We will highlight in this thesis the problems of the optimization and the management of the “Toulon Est” system, the Trapan dam and the future pumpturbine plant. For many years, design and projects have used computer modeling programs, a trend that has been amplified by the development of computerassisted drawing and design. FINESSE, acronym of “Fully Integrated Network Editing, Simulation, and Scheduling Environment”, a software of modeling and “On Line” and “Real Time” simulation, developed by De Montfort University (DMUUK), enables the user to determine an optimal operating schedule for pumps and valves for the whole operating horizon (typically 24 hours). This software is the modeling and scheduling tools that will be used in this research work.
iv
Thesis objectives and organization The objective of the thesis is to study the theoretical and practical problems related to the use of computer simulation models and softwares to optimize the operation of the pressurized water distribution and irrigation networks. The theoretical bases of these softwares will be analyzed, and the complementary modules necessary to their practical use will be developed to meet the needs listed and expressed by the services of networks management and operation. Moreover, we will highlight the problems of the optimization of the management of the “Toulon Est” hydraulic system and also Trapan dam and the future pumpturbine plant. Yet, we will recall these objectives later. In order to cover the major elements that play very important and critical roles in the modeling and optimizing the operation and management of pressurized water systems this thesis is organized in eleven chapters: 1. Chapter N° 1: This chapter is an introduction to the water distribution and management challenges and solutions where certain concepts are presented such as, Water Utility Production Management System, Information Technology (IT), Computer Integrated Manufacturing and Engineering (CIME). 2. Chapter N° 2: In this chapter the thesis problematic, methodology, and objectives are presented. The Canal de Provence Company and the eastern branch of Toulon City’s network are also presented here. Chapter N° 3: This chapter is an introduction to the water distribution systems hydraulic, modeling, and simulation. Their basics concepts, methodologies and applications will be discussed. Chapter N°4: This chapter relates to the first mainstay of the optimization and management of water networks that is the modeling softwares available in the market, and also the softwares already used at SCP, and their applications. 5. Chapter N°5: This chapter is about the fundamental numerical methods for solving water pipe networks problem. 4. 3.
v
Chapter N°6: This chapter is an introduction to SCADA system, the second mainstay of the optimization and management of water networks, and its role and its integration in the “Real Time” modeling and simulation of the water networks. The operation of SCADA system of SCP also will be described. Chapter N°7: This chapter approaches the third mainstay of the optimization of water networks; the process of the calibration of the hydraulic parameters of the model: roughness and demand factor. The calibration of “Toulon Est” network also will be presented. Chapter N°8: This chapter approaches the fourth mainstay of the optimization and management of water networks; demand prediction. The theoretical base of FINESSE module of demand prediction will be explained in detail and the SCP’s demand prediction technique too. 9. Chapter N°9: This chapter is concerned with the optimization of water distribution network where the optimization terminologies, applications, and methods will be presented, and the optimization method implemented in FINESSE will be presented too. 10. Chapter N°10: In this chapter the “Toulon Est” development program and the reversible pumpturbine plant of Trapan dam and its optimization will be covered. 11. Chapter N°11: The last part of the thesis, it is the conclusions section where the personal achievements, the objectives fulfillment and the future work proposed are included. 8. 7.
6.
vi
Acronyms  ACF  AIC  ANN  AR  ARIMA  ASCII  BFM  CAD : Autocorrelation Function : Aikake Information Criterion : Artificial Neural Networks : AutoRegressive : AutoRegressive Integrated MovingAverage : American Standard Code for Information Interchange : Branch Flow Model : Computer Aided Design Engineering
 CEMAGREF : Agricultural and Environmental Research InstituteFrance  CEO  CGTC  CIME  CONOPT  CRE  CSV  DAE  DES  DMU  DP  EDF  EPS  ES  FAC
: Compagnie d’Eau et d’Ozone (English: Water and Ozone Company) : Centre Général de TéléControl (English: Control Central) : Computer Integrated Manufacturing and Engineering : Nonlinear programming solver : Centre Régional d’Exploitation (English: Regional Operating Room) : Comma Separated Value file format : Differential Algebraic Equation : DoubleExponential Smoothing : De Montfort University : Dynamic Programming : Électricité De France (English: France’s Electricity Company) : Extended Period Simulations : Evolutionary Strategy : Free Available Chlorine
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 FCV  FEM  FFT  FINESSE  FPE  GA  GAMS  GIDAP  GINAS  GIS  GRG  GSM  GUI  HGL  HW  IEEE  IP  IT  LFM  LP  LTCCP  MA  MAE  MIP  MM
: Flow Control Valve : Finite Element methods : FastFourierTransform : Fully Integrated Network Editing, Simulation and Scheduling Environment Software : Final Prediction Error : Genetic Algorithm : General Algebraic Modeling System : Graphical Prediction Interactive Demand Analysis and
: Graphical and Interactive program for Network Analysis and Simulation for water distribution system : Geographical Information System : Generalized Reduced Gradient : Global System for Mobile Communication : Graphical User Interface : Hydraulic Gradient Line : HoltWinters method : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers : Integer Programming problem : Information Technology : Loop Flow Model : Linear Programming : Long Term Council Community Plan : MovingAverage : Mean Absolute Error : Mixed Integer Programming problem : Mixed Model
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 MMI/HMI  MRPE  MSE  MUX  NAS  NGF  NLP  NM  NPSHa  NPSHr  NRV  PACA  PACF  PCV  PRV  PSV  RMINLP  RT  RTU  SBB  SCADA  SCE  SCP  SES  SIDECM
: Man Machine Interface/Human Machine Interface : Mean Relative Percentage Error : Mean Squared Error : Multiplexing : Network Analysis Software : Nivellement Général de la France (English: French National Levelling) : NonLinear Programming : Nodal Model : Available Net Positive Suction Head : Required Net Positive Suction Head : NonReturn Valve : ProvenceAlpesCôte d’Azur : Partial Autocorrelation Function : Pressure Control Valve : Pressure Reducing Valve : Pressure Sustaining Valve : Relaxed Mixed Integer Nonlinear Programming : Remote Transmission : Remote Terminal Units : Simple Branch and Bound algorithm : Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition : Shuffled Complex Evolution : Société du Canal de Provence (English: Canal de Provence Company) : SingleExponential Smoothing : Syndicat Intercommunal de Distribution d’Eau de la Corniche des Maures (English: Water Distributing Association of La Corniche des Maures) ix
 TCV  TES  UK  VMS  WAN  WDMs  WDS  WMA  WSS
: Throttle Control Valve : TripleExponential Smoothing : United Kingdome : Virtual Memory System operating system : Wide Area Network : Water Distribution Models : Water Distribution System : Weighted Moving Average : Water Software Systems
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Table of Contents
Acknowledgements......................................................................................ii Abstract ....................................................................................................... iv Acronyms ...................................................................................................vii Table of Contents .......................................................................................xi List of Figures ............................................................................................ xv List of Tables............................................................................................xvii CHAPTER 1 ................................................................................................. 1 1. Water Distribution and Management Challenges and Solutions ... 1
1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Introduction................................................................................................... 1 Water utility production management system .............................................. 6 Information integration technology in water utilities ................................... 8 Computer Integrated Manufacturing and Engineering, CIME ................... 10 Management and operational control of water supply and distribution systems........................................................................................................ 13 Use computer model of water network systems ......................................... 15
CHAPTER 2 ............................................................................................... 18 2. Thesis Problematic and Objectives .................................................. 18
2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 Canal de Provence Company and needs for modeling tools ...................... 18 Thesis objectives......................................................................................... 20 Presentation of Canal de Provence Company (SCP) .................................. 22 Presentation of the “Toulon Est” water supply network............................. 25 Description of the existing hydraulic system of “Toulon East” ................. 25 Operation and hydraulic management ........................................................ 31 Water demand of the zone “Toulon Est” .................................................... 32 Development program of the zone “Toulon Est” ....................................... 33
CHAPTER 3 ............................................................................................... 34 3. Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling .. 34
3.1 Anatomy of water distribution network system.......................................... 34 3.1.1 Source of water ................................................................................... 34 3.1.2 Customers of water ............................................................................. 34 3.1.3 Transport facilities .............................................................................. 35 3.1.4 System configurations......................................................................... 35 3.1.5 Solving network problems .................................................................. 37 3.2 Water distribution network system simulation ........................................... 37 3.3 Water distribution network system modeling............................................. 38 3.3.1 Application of models......................................................................... 38 3.3.2 Modeling process................................................................................ 40 3.3.3 Network model elements .................................................................... 43 3.3.4 Water quality modeling ...................................................................... 44 3.3.5 Model simplification (skeletonisation) ............................................... 44 3.3.6 Model calibration................................................................................ 45 3.3.7 Model maintenance............................................................................. 46
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3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7
Network water consumption....................................................................... 46 Network system security............................................................................. 47 Using SCADA system for hydraulic modeling .......................................... 49 Network optimization ................................................................................. 49
CHAPTER 4 ............................................................................................... 50 4. Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares50
4.1 Introduction................................................................................................. 50 4.2 Market study for water distribution modeling softwares............................ 51 4.2.1 Market study aims............................................................................... 51 4.2.2 Market studies tasks............................................................................ 52 4.3 Identifying and analyzing competitor products .......................................... 53 4.3.1 Final product list ................................................................................. 53 4.3.2 Sources of Information ....................................................................... 53 4.3.3 Product information ............................................................................ 54 4.3.4 Omitted products................................................................................. 56 4.3.5 Developer information........................................................................ 59 4.3.6 Criteria ................................................................................................ 61 4.4 General conclusions.................................................................................... 68 4.5 Water distribution networks simulation and modeling softwares at the SCP. .................................................................................................................... 69 4.6 FINESSE..................................................................................................... 70 4.7 EPANET Software...................................................................................... 76
CHAPTER 5 ............................................................................................... 78 5. Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem..................... 78
5.1 Introduction................................................................................................. 78 5.2 Conceptual model of a water network ........................................................ 79 5.3 Fundamental mathematical model .............................................................. 80 5.4 Theoretical properties of the mathematical model ..................................... 88 5.5 Numerical methods ..................................................................................... 89 5.5.1 HardyCross method ........................................................................... 89 5.5.2 NewtonRaphson method ................................................................... 90 5.5.3 Linear Theory method ........................................................................ 90 5.5.4 Finite Element Methods...................................................................... 90 5.5.5 Linear Graph theory............................................................................ 91 5.6 Extendedperiod simulation........................................................................ 91 5.7 FINESSE simulator (GINAS)..................................................................... 92
CHAPTER 6 ............................................................................................... 94 6. Role of SCADA System for Real Time Hydraulic Simulation ...... 94
6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 Objectives of SCADA systems for water distribution network.................. 94 Components of a SCADA system .............................................................. 96 Data acquisition mechanisms...................................................................... 97 Types of SCADA data and SCADA data format ....................................... 98 Handling of data during SCADA failures and processing of data from the field ............................................................................................................. 98 Responding to data problems and verifying data validity .......................... 99 Integrating SCADA systems and hydraulic models ................................. 100
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6.8 Description of SCADA systems at SCP (Canivet, 2002) ......................... 102 6.8.1 The equipments of the supervisor system......................................... 102 6.8.2 Description of the measuring chain of SCP...................................... 103 6.8.3 The measurements acquisition in realtime ...................................... 107 6.8.4 Measurements conciliation technique............................................... 108 6.9 Establishing link between FINESSE SCADA Gateway and CGTC supervisor.................................................................................................. 108
CHAPTER 7 ............................................................................................. 112 7. Calibration of Pipe Network Hydraulic Model ............................ 112
7.1 Introduction............................................................................................... 112 7.2 Calibration approach................................................................................. 113 7.3 Calibration methods.................................................................................. 116 7.4 State estimation of water network ............................................................ 119 7.5 Observability and identifiability of water network................................... 120 7.6 Problem formulation for network calibration ........................................... 121 7.7 FINESSE for automatic network calibration ............................................ 123 7.8 Calibrating “Toulon Est” network ............................................................ 124 7.8.1 “EPAXL Calibrator” approach ......................................................... 124 7.8.2 Schematic diagram of the mainline of “Toulon Est” network.......... 127 7.8.3 Part#1: Singleperiod calibration ...................................................... 129 7.8.4 SCP’s Maintenance Division calibration tests.................................. 130 7.8.5 EPAXL Calibrator results................................................................. 132 7.8.6 Calibration results discussion ........................................................... 134 7.8.7 Part#2: Extendedperiod calibration ................................................. 142 7.8.8 Continuity equation........................................................................... 142 7.8.9 Extendedperiod calibration approach .............................................. 143 7.9 General discussion and conclusion ........................................................... 156
CHAPTER 8 ............................................................................................. 159 8. Demand Prediction .......................................................................... 159
8.1 Introduction............................................................................................... 159 8.2 Water demand prediction.......................................................................... 159 8.3 Prediction methodology and techniques ................................................... 164 8.4 Time series methods ................................................................................. 166 8.4.1 Autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF).............................................................................................. 167 8.4.2 Simple autoregressive models .......................................................... 168 8.4.3 Simple movingaverage models........................................................ 169 8.4.4 Simple BoxJenkins ARMA model .................................................. 170 8.4.5 ARIMA model .................................................................................. 171 8.4.6 BoxJenkins Model Identification .................................................... 171 8.4.7 Smoothing methods .......................................................................... 173 8.5 Evaluating the accuracy of forecasting ..................................................... 175 8.6 Forecasting softwares ............................................................................... 176 8.7 Water demand prediction technique at SCP ............................................. 178 8.8 Daily demand prediction technique implemented in FINESSE software. 181 8.9 Comparison between shortterm water demand forecasting techniques for water supply networks  case study : “Toulon Est” network system........ 186
xiii
8.9.1 8.9.2 8.9.3
Approach........................................................................................... 186 Comparison of the prediction results ................................................ 197 Conclusion ........................................................................................ 205
CHAPTER 9 ............................................................................................. 206 9. Optimization of Water Distribution Networks............................. 206
9.1 Introduction............................................................................................... 206 9.2 Optimization terminology......................................................................... 207 9.3 The Optimization process ......................................................................... 208 9.4 Water distribution networks optimization ................................................ 209 9.5 Applications of optimization in water distribution networks ................... 211 9.6 Optimization methods............................................................................... 212 9.7 FINESSE scheduler for optimal operational scheduling .......................... 216 9.7.1 Mathematical principles and problem formulation........................... 216 9.7.2 Transformation of the network scheduling problem into a nonlinear programming problem ...................................................................... 219 9.7.3 The equationoriented programming language................................. 220 9.7.4 Selection of a starting point .............................................................. 222 9.7.5 Continuous relaxation of the network scheduling problem .............. 222 9.7.6 Solution approaches to integer programming problems (IP)............ 224 9.7.7 Discretization by postprocessing of continuous solution ................ 229 9.7.8 Remarks on GAMS/CONOPT Solver for optimal operational scheduling ......................................................................................... 237
CHAPTER 10 ........................................................................................... 241 10. Development Program and the Reversible PumpTurbine Plant of Trapan Dam ..................................................................................... 241
10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 10.10 Introduction............................................................................................... 241 Optimization of pumping stations at SCP................................................. 242 The Pump – Turbine plant of Trapan........................................................ 243 Gratteloup water tank................................................................................ 246 Piping and fittings..................................................................................... 246 Electrical equipments................................................................................ 251 Operating points of pumpturbine plant.................................................... 251 NPSH (Net Positive Suction Head) .......................................................... 261 Reversible pumpturbine plant: operation principles and scenarios......... 262 Reversible pumpturbine plant scheduling using FINESSE Pump Scheduler (CONOPT/GAMS) .................................................................................. 269 10.10.1 Pumpmode................................................................................... 272 10.10.2 Turbinemode................................................................................ 274
CHAPTER 11 ........................................................................................... 277 11. Summary and Conclusions ........................................................... 277
11.1 11.2 Summary................................................................................................... 277 General conclusions.................................................................................. 278
References................................................................................................. 281
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List of Figures
Figure 1.1 : Production management system.................................................................... 7 Figure 1.2 : WaterCIME methodology ........................................................................... 11 Figure 1.3 : CIME pyramid............................................................................................. 12 Figure 1.4 : Mainstays of optimization........................................................................... 17 Figure 2.1 : General sight of Canal de Provence ............................................................ 24 Figure 2.2 : General sight of “Toulon Est” water supply network ................................. 25 Figure 2.3 : Point A – Les Laures................................................................................... 26 Figure 2.4 : Point C – Pierrascas tank............................................................................. 27 Figure 2.5 : Point F – Fenouillet tank ............................................................................. 27 Figure 2.6 : Point G – Mont Redon tank......................................................................... 28 Figure 2.7 : Point H – Golf Hôtel tank ........................................................................... 28 Figure 2.8 : Point M – La Môle ...................................................................................... 28 Figure 2.9 : Hydraulic profile of Toulon Est network .................................................... 29 Figure 2.10 : Point T – Trapan dam................................................................................ 30 Figure 3.1 : Looped and branched networks................................................................... 36 Figure 3.2 : Looped and branched networks after network failure................................. 36 Figure 3.3 : Major points of vulnerability in a water supply system .............................. 47 Figure 4.1 : FINESSE architecture ................................................................................. 71 Figure 4.2 : FINESSE interface ...................................................................................... 76 Figure 5.1 : Conceptual model........................................................................................ 79 Figure 6.1 : Generic SCADA system network ............................................................... 97 Figure 6.2 : Architecture of SCADA communication at SCP ...................................... 104 Figure 6.3 : Schema of data conciliation algorithm...................................................... 109 Figure 6.4 : “Telemetric Link” between FINESSE and CGTC/SCP supervisor ......... 111 Figure 7.1 : Calibration approach for pipe roughness .................................................. 128 Figure 7.2 : Schematic diagram of the mainline of “Toulon Est” network .................. 129 Figure 7.3 : ε_values computed by EPAXL ................................................................. 134 Figure 7.4 : Differences between ε_values of Test#1 and Test#2 ................................ 136 Figure 7.5 : Differences between ε_values of SCP and EPAXL.................................. 138 Figure 7.6 : Difference between measured and simulated pressures –Test#1 .............. 140 Figure 7.7 : Difference between measured and simulated pressures –Test#2 .............. 141 Figure 7.8 : Hourly total water demand – Toulon Est, Year 2005 ............................... 143 Figure 7.9 : Differences between system inflows and outflows ................................... 143 Figure 7.10 : Colebrook vs. simplified friction factor equations.................................. 144 Figure 7.11 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe AB ............................................................................. 145 Figure 7.12 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe BC ............................................................................. 146 Figure 7.13 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe CE ............................................................................. 146 Figure 7.14 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe EF.............................................................................. 147 Figure 7.15 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe FG ............................................................................. 147 Figure 7.16 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe GH............................................................................. 148 Figure 7.17 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe HK............................................................................. 148 Figure 7.18 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point B......................................... 152 Figure 7.19 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point C......................................... 152 Figure 7.20 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point E......................................... 153 Figure 7.21 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point F ......................................... 153 Figure 7.22 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point G ........................................ 154 Figure 7.23 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point H ........................................ 154 Figure 7.24 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point K ........................................ 155
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Figure 7.25 : Calculated delta’s values (Δ)................................................................... 155 Figure 7.26 : Comparison between the ε_values .......................................................... 156 Figure 8.1 : Example of demand prediction at SCP – Toulon Est – 2006.................... 180 Figure 8.2 : GIPAD’s demand prediction stages .......................................................... 182 Figure 8.3 : Example of original vs. smoothed demand  Year 2002 ........................... 187 Figure 8.4 : Measured demand and the periodogram ................................................... 188 Figure 8.5 : Autocorrelation function of demand series ............................................... 193 Figure 8.6 : Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions, 2002 .................... 194 Figure 8.7 : Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions, 2003 .................... 195 Figure 8.8 : Autocorrelation function of residual ......................................................... 196 Figure 8.9 : Prediction methods comparison – Year 2002 ........................................... 199 Figure 8.10 : Prediction methods comparison – Year 2003 ......................................... 200 Figure 8.11 : Prediction methods comparison – July 31, 2003..................................... 201 Figure 8.12 : Measured and predicted demand (July 31, 2003) ................................... 202 Figure 8.13 : Prediction methods comparison – Year 2004 ......................................... 203 Figure 8.14 : Prediction methods comparison – Year 2005 ......................................... 204 Figure 9.1 : Optimization process................................................................................. 207 Figure 9.2 : Discretization by valve aperture adjustment ............................................. 230 Figure 9.3 : Valve adjustment approach ....................................................................... 231 Figure 9.4 : Discretization by pump speed adjustment................................................. 232 Figure 9.5 : Pump speed adjustment approach ............................................................. 234 Figure 9.6 : Timestep adjustment approach.................................................................. 236 Figure 9.7 : Network configuration example 1............................................................. 237 Figure 9.8 : Network configuration example 2............................................................. 238 Figure 10.1 : Hydraulic characteristics of the pump  turbine unit............................... 245 Figure 10.2 : Hydraulic profile of Toulon Est network ................................................ 248 Figure 10.3 : 900mmpipeline profile connecting the station to Trapan ...................... 249 Figure 10.4 : 700mmpipeline profile connecting the station and the supply pipe ...... 249 Figure 10.5 : General view of the project ..................................................................... 250 Figure 10.6 : Turbine operating points ......................................................................... 253 Figure 10.7 : Operation of the Trapan pumping station at different conditions ........... 260 Figure 10.8 : NPSH – Toulon Est pumping station ...................................................... 262 Figure 10.9 : FINESSE model for “Toulon Est” .......................................................... 271 Figure 10.10 : Pumping and turbining in the same time............................................... 271 Figure 10.11 : Toulon Est in pumpmode under normal operation .............................. 273 Figure 10.12 : Pump control – Pump optimal continuous solution .............................. 273 Figure 10.13 : Toulon Est in turbinemode under normal operation ............................ 275 Figure 10.14 : Toulon Est in turbinemode and water tanks between Les Laures and Trapan are not isolated.................................................................................................. 276
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List of Tables
Table 2.1 : Characteristics of the submain pipelines ...................................................... 27 Table 3.1 : Types of problems that could be analyzed by modeling .............................. 39 Table 3.2 : Network Data................................................................................................ 42 Table 3.3 : Demand Data ................................................................................................ 43 Table 3.4 : Operational Data........................................................................................... 43 Table 3.5 : Common network modeling elements.......................................................... 43 Table 4.1 : General software information and features .................................................. 69 Table 7.1 : Description of hydraulic measurements of “Toulon Est”........................... 129 Table 7.2 : Flow measurements during Test#1_SCP.................................................... 130 Table 7.3 : Calibration results for Test#1_SCP ............................................................ 131 Table 7.4 : Flow measurements during Test#2_SCP.................................................... 131 Table 7.5 : Calibration results for Test#2_SCP ............................................................ 131 Table 7.6 : Calibration results for Test#1_EPAXL ...................................................... 133 Table 7.7 : Calibration results for Test#2_EPAXL ...................................................... 133 Table 7.8 : Calibration results for Test#1 and Test#2_EPAXL................................... 134 Table 7.9 : Differences between ε_SCP#1 and ε_SCP#2............................................. 135 Table 7.10 : Differences between ε_ EPAXL#1 and ε_ EPAXL#2 ............................. 136 Table 7.11 : Difference between ε_SCP#1 and ε_EPAXL#1....................................... 137 Table 7.12 : Difference between ε_SCP#2 and ε_EPAXL#2....................................... 137 Table 7.13 : Difference between measured and simulated pressures –Test#1 ............. 140 Table 7.14 : Difference between measured and simulated pressures –Test#2 ............. 141 Table 7.15 : Results for linear regression parameters estimation  2005...................... 145 Table 7.16 : Calibration results for equation inversion ................................................ 150 Table 7.17 : Results for EPAXL Calibrator  2005 ...................................................... 151 Table 7.18 : Summary of ε_values for calibration 2005 and 2006.............................. 156 Table 8.1 : Alpha setting for SES ................................................................................. 190 Table 8.2 : Alpha setting for TES ................................................................................. 191 Table 8.3 : Parameter estimation .................................................................................. 197 Table 8.4 : Results  2002 ............................................................................................. 199 Table 8.5 : Results  2003 ............................................................................................. 200 Table 8.6 : Results  July 31, 2003 ............................................................................... 201 Table 8.7 : Results  2004 ............................................................................................. 203 Table 8.8 : Results  2005 ............................................................................................. 204 Table 10.1 : Optimal operating points .......................................................................... 244 Table 10.2 : Pumping to Les Laures ............................................................................ 255 Table 10.3 : Pumping to Les Laures ............................................................................ 255 Table 10.4 : Pumping to Gratteloup............................................................................. 257 Table 10.5 : Pumping to Gratteloup............................................................................. 257 Table 10.6 : Pumping to Golf Hôtel ............................................................................ 259 Table 10.7 : Pumping to Golf Hôtel ............................................................................ 259 Table 10.8 : 2005 Summer Demand for Toulon Est..................................................... 272 Table 10.9 : EDF Electricity tariff (€/kWhr) ................................................................ 272
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CHAPTER 1
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Introduction
Human life, as with all animal and plant life on the planet, is dependent upon water. Not only do we need water to grow our food, generate our power and run our industries, but we need it as a basic part of our daily lives; our bodies need to ingest water every day to continue functioning. Communities and individuals can exist without many things if they have to; they can be deprived of comfort, of shelter, even of food for a period, but they can not be deprived of water and survive for more than a few days. Because of the intimate relationship between water and life, water is woven into the fabric of all cultures, religions and societies in many ways (Gleick, 1999). Water and civilization, two terms historically associated. The first civilizations appeared by the big rivers (Gleick, 1999). The flowing waters of the Euphrates, the Nile, the Indus and the Yangtze were silent witnesses of the human settlements along their banks and the flourishing of their culture. They switched from subsistence agriculture to organized farming in a short time. Water can be social, economic, private and public good. Water is important to the process of economic development improving both individual and social well being. It is essential for life and health and has cultural and religious significance (Suleiman, 2002). Access to basic water requirements is a fundamental right implicitly supported by international law, declarations and state practices. This right is even more basic than other explicit human rights as can be seen by its recognition in some local traditional laws or religious norm (Gleick, 1999). The holly Quran for instance, says that “And we made from water every living thing”. This forthright statement explicitly correlates water with life (Suleiman, 2002). The worldwide consumption of the last century has increased seven folds. In the last half of the XX century the answer to this increase in the demand was basically the construction of more and larger hydraulic infrastructures, especially reservoirs and canals for deviating rivers. More
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than 85% of the 40,000 reservoirs built in the world have been constructed in the last 35 years (Pérez, 2003). Such engineering works have guaranteed the supply of water to great urban and rural areas but have, in the opinion of ecologists, led to the degradation of the fluvial deltas and increased the risk of extinction of some species in wetland areas. Nobody can ignore the fact that it is not possible to satisfy a demand without limit with a permanent increase of the offer of a commodity that has ecological, physical and economic limitations. As the most accessible sources of water are exhausted new resources are obtained in an increasingly complicated and hence more expensive way. This leads to a worse quality of the resource and the necessity of a new culture of water usage based on a more rational and sustainable use of this valuable resource (Pérez, 2003). The challenge is to spend less and more efficiently. To guarantee a sufficient supply of water does not in itself suffice to solve the distribution problems. It is necessary to continue conserving water. This is a broad concept that includes all those techniques orientated to help in the saving and better management of this liquid (UNICEF, 2000). Such techniques include the modernization and rehabilitation of the networks to minimize leakage. This is a problem that affects not only the urban centers where 30% of the water that enters the network does not get to its destiny at the consumption points but also the watering infrastructures. Installation of low consumption devices nowadays allows savings of 50% without losing quality in the service. There are models of taps, showers and toilets with such improved efficiency. Wastewater can be reused after a good process of depuration. Education campaigns are crucial for saving water and the introduction of new tariffs can stimulate such savings (UNICEF, 2000). The contamination of both surface water (rivers become increasingly polluted as they pass by cities and industrial areas) and ground water (polluted by nitrates, heavy metals and organic components and affected by salinization) should be reduced. Water provision can not be separated from two other interrelated factors  sanitation and health. This is because one of the primary causes of contamination of water is the inadequate or improper disposal of human (and animal) excreta. This often leads to a cycle of infection and contamination that remains one of the leading causes of illness and death in the developing world. Drinking water quality is not an objective any more but an obligation (Pérez, 2003). Access to clean water is fundamental to survival and critical for reducing the prevalence of many water related diseases. For centuries, Europe had to cope with plagues and epidemics unaware of their origin. In 1854 in London, during a cholera epidemic, Dr John Snow discovered that the means of dissemination of this disease was water. He treated the water
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with chlorine and it eradicated the disease. After this experience the temporary treatment of water with chlorine began, first in the United Kingdom and afterwards in the United States becoming generalized at the beginning of the 20th century. It brought about the reduction of diseases such as Hepatitis A, Cholera and Typhus. The purification of water with chlorine has been the sanitary measure that has saved most lives in the last century. In addition, the provision of safe drinking water and proper sanitation has the greatest overall impact upon national development and public health. 1.1 billion people in the world are still without some form of improved water supply, 2.4 billion live without adequate sanitation and 5 million people a year, of mostly children under age 5, die from illnesses linked to unsafe water, unclean domestic environments and improper sanitation (UNICEF, 2000). The modern treatment stations use slow filtration systems that reproduce the conditions of the riverbeds. The European legislation defines three types of water depending on which treatment it undergoes. This ranges from the simplest physical treatment and disinfecting to the most sophisticated physical and chemical treatment and disinfecting. Now in the quick filtration plants water undergoes treatment that includes different phases: caption, mixing with coagulating and reactive substances, decantation and sand separation, flocculation, sedimentation, filtration, and disinfecting. This procedure may last five hours and some new tools have been added. These technologies allow the fulfillment of the quality standards. Active carbon (produced by the combustion in special and controlled conditions of organic substances) that presents a big exposed area can trap by absorption suspended particles and dissolved substances. The disinfecting process using Ozone is very efficient but is more expensive than the use of chlorine. Inverse osmosis uses membranes to separate dissolved salts. In general solar technologies applied to the purification of water are only useful for water with low contamination. Desalination of water is the other choice to increase the availability of water instead of reusing residual water. It is a perfectly viable solution from a technological point of view. The problem is the high cost of the technology. Nevertheless the latest advances in this technology and the introduction of inverse osmosis have decreased the energetic cost. The cost seems to be decreasing and the supporters of this technology believe that soon this water will be cheaper. On the other hand the energy needed is a great drawback for obtaining a sustainable supply of water by this method. Although the chemical purification methodologies guarantee that the water that comes from the taps is all right from the sanitary point of view in the last few years the consumption of bottled water has increased spectacularly. This happens despite consumers having to pay between 500
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and 1,000 times more for this water than that in the public network, and that in more than 50% of cases this bottled water has the same quality as the tap water except for some salts and aggregated minerals. Consumption of bottled water increases in the world by 7% each year (WHO, 2001). The reason has to be found in the fact that consumers do not like tap water, sometimes because it has a disagreeable taste or odor or sometimes because it can appear white color. Aware of this problem the distribution companies have started plans to determine and increase the quality of the water offered to their customers. For example the Societat General d’Aigües de Barcelona (Agbar), in collaboration with the French Society Lyonaise des Eaux and the North American Water Works Association Research, has developed a system to quantify the color, taste and odor of the drinking water. If there is any case in which one of these characteristics becomes unpleasant the causes are discovered and corrected. For this purpose there are some professionals that can detect 30 different tastes and smells in the water like the ones who work with wine. Typical tastes of chlorine, humid soil, metallic, cooked vegetable or the classical acid, sweet, salt and bitter can define the water. After the taste process the chemical analysis allows the detection of substances that produce such problems and the water can be treated adequately. Unlike other sectors, water sector is the closest approximation to the ideal “natural monopoly” of economic texts (OECD, 1998). The required infrastructure is costly and specialized. Therefore, duplication by potential competitors would be prohibitive. As a consequence, one can not count on competition to maintain reasonable prices and levels of services. Although privatization does not work magic in the public area, experience has approved that it is quite successful in those industries where technology is flexible in the sense of permitting multicompany use of facilities. In the water sector, the natural monopoly problem has not been overcome and unless, there is a competitive market, private sector involvement will not be able to offer the potential efficiency gains. Actually what is apparent after all these facts is that the water that is consumed is cheap but the solutions to guarantee its availability and quality are not. The reality is that water is a limited resource and should be treated not just as a social commodity, but an economical one too. Citizens should use water in the most efficient way and pay for the real cost of this precious resource. The Worldwatch Institute estimates that only 15% of the real cost is paid, a fact which does not encourage water conservation (Suleiman, 2002). Careful usage as recommended by experts should be supported by different initiatives. Specific legislation and recommendations for the population about this necessity would help avoid wastage. The adoption of
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financial incentives would stimulate the substitution (for uses that do not require high quality water) of the potable water with that coming from the regeneration of residual waters. The objective of these programs would be the adjustment of the resource to the demands in order to liberate high quality flows to the most appropriate uses. It is not sensible to use potable water to water the plants, wash the car, or clean the streets. Managing water as economic good means that water will be allocated among competitive users in a way that maximize the net benefit from the amount of water (OECD, 1998). As a result, the cost of water should consider the full economic cost including the opportunity cost. This may cause poor people to be priced out of the market leaving them without adequate social good. The recognition of the economic character of the water was associated with the existence of the water market but, it has not been clear so far how practically, to achieve the rights balance between managing water as both a social and economic good. International human rights law recognizes that without access to adequate water, it is not possible to attain many other explicit rights, such as life, health, education, gender equity, and adequate standards of livings. Some women in Ghana have correlated lack of water with lack of dignity and even sometimes violence in the home under the growing emphasis on the market to manage water supply, certainly, and if the market fail to provide the water basic requirements, it is the responsibility of the state to meet these needs under the human right agreements. At the World Water Forum in The Hague, it was the subject of heated debate, with the World Bank and the water companies seeking to have it declared as a human need that is not semantic. If water is a human need, it can be provided by the private sector while if it is a human right, it can not be sold. Water is not simply a handout or a market commodity that can be priced through contractual agreement. A human rights perspective demands authentic popular consultation and participation in decisions affecting the production and distribution of water (UNICEF, 2000). The problem outlined in the previous paragraphs affects all of society. Some of the solutions suggested so far depend on the customers, others depend on the governments, and some depend on production companies and some on the distribution companies. Distribution of water also presents some challenges. Distribution has improved in the last century although it existed in ancient civilizations. The quality control of the water that flows through the network is an obligation nowadays. The physical conditions of the water offered to the customers are an objective of all the distribution companies. It is necessary to assure a pressure of water and a reliability of the service so that people, industry, hostelry, hospitals and all of society can trust in a basic service. Another important aspect already mentioned is the huge quantity of water
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that disappears in the network before it reaches its target. A knowledge allowing an understanding of what happens in a water utility is indispensable for any quality certification, as the quality concept has more to do with the reliability of the data and assertion than to improve an unknown level. This knowledge is useful to correct any failure in the process or to improve its functioning. This knowledge is provided by control and supervision of the process. In a distribution network such supervision uses the dataloggers distributed in the network where the communications are often by radio due to the remote location of these measures, informatics applications that show the working state of the network, and some decision tools, depending on the water utility, that help the human operators. Control and supervision of processes are part of the Water Utility Production Management System described hereafter. 1.2 Water utility production management system
The term “water utility” covers all forms of organization directly responsible for managing parts of water cycle (WaterCIME, 1994). The term “production management” system covers the engineering activities required to run a water system. Examples of such activities include operational control, maintenance and planning design and construction (Figure 1.1). The activities include tasks which are automated and/or performed by people. The European Union contains diversity of organizational types and national legal frameworks. Despite this diversity, the essential missions of water utilities are similar, and it is not surprising that similar categories of activities are found in every water utility, for example, operational control, planning design and construction, maintenance, water quality analysis, finance, personnel management, costumer services, etc (Eureau, 1993). The existence of common objectives and activities creates the possibility of generalized methods of analyzing utilities, just as there are generalized methods for analyzing hydraulic networks. In the ideal utility, its mission decomposed into hierarchy of objectives with corresponding activities which cooperate to achieve the utility’s objectives. The management of water system can be characterized as a process control and transport problem. Water management systems typically consist of distributed structures and works, having relatively high levels of instrumentations, controls and automation, which are interconnected by transport networks having lower levels. Dynamic information is exchanged with the water system via the supervisory system. The water system is also described by more or less static information in asset databases. An operator’s view of the water system is usually limited to this information
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(WaterCIME, 1995). Some of the problems associated with water utility production management system are: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Information distributed in time, space and according to the departmental and hierarchical organization. Information may be inconsistent, out of date and inaccessible. The net effect of the complex mixture of human and automated activities, each having localized objectives, is not generally efficient overall. There are difficulties in communication owing to different protocol and understanding. Much stafftime is spent on data gathering, checking and processing. It is difficult to understand the overall effect of introducing reorganized and new systems.
Planning Design and Construction
Maintenance
Water Utility Production Management System
Operational Control
Customer Services
Figure 1.1 : Production management system Therefore, organizing and improving production management system is a complex and challenging task, because it is often complex with many activities distributed in time and space. Activities are also distributed across department and the management hierarchy. Activities can be viewed as information producers and costumers. Information must be exchanged for the utility to work in an efficient and coordinated way. Also, information is distributed and exists in different paperbased and computerized forms. However, the water utilities are trying to achieve greater efficiencies from
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the use of complex and more integrated Information Technology Systems IT (WaterCIME, 1995). The role of Information Integration is to enable and make utility activities more efficient. 1.3 Information integration technology in water utilities
As mentioned here above, Information is distributed across a water utility in different departments and geographical locations. It is also distributed vertically according to management level (Buxton, 1996). This distribution, and the use of different computer and paperbased information systems cause difficulties when ensuring that shared information is up to date, correct and consistent. Different activities require and produce information in different forms. In general, information is aggregated and abstracted through the different management levels, requiring information processing, much of which is trivial and repetitive. Much stafftime is spent on relatively simple data acquisition, gathering, checking and processing tasks, which is time consuming, costly and reduce the time available for data analysis. Many of these data processing tasks could be automated. The degree of automation is a matter of utility management strategy. Some activities can be fully or partially automated (Rance, 1999). However, computers are unable to abstract and conceptualize and can not handle incomplete and illdefined description, and some activities can not be automated. A computerized system stores and manipulates data. It carries out many complex tasks and accurately executes complex formallyspecified procedures such as calculating the optimal schedule for a supply network. A computer can perform a number of unrelated tasks simultaneously which a single person would find impossible. In particular, a computer has an extensive and accurate shortterm and longterm memory. Data storage and access is currently the major role in water utilities which are commissioning large information management systems such as Geographical Information System (GIS). Communication networks provide the ability to exchange and share information quickly across a distributed utility. Placing existing utility information into a common data store can impose formal constraints, such as the identification of unique name for certain items in order to access the data store effectively. Information integration means the consistent linking of computer systems, its general objective is to provide timely, reliable and relevant information to perform activities and make decisions. This usually involves the use of digital computer systems which is the dominant technology for information storage, retrieval and processing. However, the efficient exploitation of this technology requires the use of systematic analytical and
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planning methods. The main problems in achieving information integration arise from organizational complexity, organizational change, and in managing the introduction of new technology and existing systems (Brunel Uni., 1997). In practice, information integration often occurs gradually by evolution under the pressure of different forces. Competition and regulatory pressures drive water companies to address particular aspects of the business such as asset management, leakage reduction, and costumer service. Computer technology develops rapidly and offers new tools for companies to improve efficiency. There are different levels of integration and different interpretations of integration (Rance, 1999): 1. Separate databases and applications implemented to support specific aspect of the business such as asset management, operational control, and customer service. Examples include Geographical Information System (GIS), Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA), Asset maintenance databases, and customer billing system. Many companies are implementing such databases as the primary source of information about these aspects of the business. The philosophy is to assemble all relevant information about a particular aspect in one database, and thereafter to maintain and use this database as the primary source of information. Interconnected databases and applications are required by some activities. For example, the management of leakage requires information which is typically stored in the asset and operational control databases. Some companies have developed specialized software interfaces to extract and process the required information, and to exchange it across computer networks. Such interfaces are specialized to the requirements of a particular activity. There are standards and products which facilitate the development of such interfaces. The company – wide integration of information system requires a systematic analytical approach and planning method. Information integration proceeds through the theoretical analysis of the operation of a company and the development of a migration plan which takes into account the investment in existing systems and the improvement opportunity within the company. Such an approach can lead to the improvement in the operation of the company as a whole. It may involve changing some working practices.
2.
3.
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Most companies have achieved successes at level 1 and 2. Although, coherent plans and policies toward fully integrated information systems are uncommon in the water industry at present, many companies are now considering the issue. The task of designing an information integration system is quite complex and time consuming process. This has led some manufacturing industries (which have activities and products families in common with water utilities) to develop general models or references as guides that defines a general methodology for information integration problem, and for developing and trying out practical, open and evolutionary solutions. This subject had been studied during a European project called “WaterCIME” (1995). “WaterCIME” project consortium consists of, Alcatel TITN Answare (France), AspenTechCIMTECH (Belgium), DaimlerBenz Aerospace (Germany), De Montfort University (UK), Instituut voor Agrotechnologisch Onderzoek (Netherlands), Bremer EntsorgungsBetriebe (Germany), Société Canal de Provence (France), and the Société Wallonne des Distribution d’Eau (Belgium). It belongs to the European research program ESPRIT relating to information technologies. It has for the base the concept CIME “Computer Integrated Manufacturing and Engineering” that already largely used in other industrial field. The consortium of 1.4 Computer Integrated Manufacturing and Engineering, CIME
Much work has been performed on the cooperation of computerbased engineering activities in the manufacturing industry. The task of designing a computer integrated manufacturing system is complex and time consuming (WaterCIME, 1995). The CIME methodology, developed by some manufacturing industries, helps to plan, design and operate manufacturing enterprise, and it is particularly suited to engineering organizations. CIME models are verbal and graphical descriptions of the overall process of CIME development and implementation. Also, water utilities share some common problems with electrical power and gas industries. Results arising from these industries are also relevant to water industry. The CIME concepts were adapted to the water domain (WaterCIME, 1995). The mission of WaterCIME project is to develop open water management systems. As a step toward achieving this, the consortium of this project developed the WaterCIME methodology. It was developed from the experience of the partners and drawing from working manufacturing industries to address the problem of information integration in “water production management systems”, a term used to cover the activities required to run a water system. Four groups of activities are
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identified in the production management system: operational control, maintenance, planning design and construction, and costumer services. The groups include tasks which are automated and/or performed by people. The methodology treats activities as information procedures and consumers. Hierarchical models of the system are built; the modeling enables the rational identification of improvement opportunities. The outputs of the methodology include models of the existing and improved company, and a migration plan and cost/benefit analysis (WaterCIME, 1995). The essence of the methodology is to produce a full model of the existing production management system, called “AsIs” model. The model building process reveals potential improvement to the system. This and other knowledge is used to construct another full model capturing the improvement opportunities, called “ToBe” model. The CIME methodology is supported by the Reference Model (Figure 1.2) which is a generalized example used to help derive the specific models. The Reference Model includes the following submodels, providing successive layers of abstraction: 1. 2. 3. 4. Reference Objectives and Constrain Model. Reference Decision Model. Reference Information Model. Reference Information System.
The Reference Objective and Constrain Model describe general water utility objectives. These are transformed into the Reference Decision Model, which is hierarchical model of activities and associated information flows between the activities. The information flows are decomposed into an objectoriented data model called the Reference Information Model. This model aggregates these data objects and utility functions into the elements of a computerized information system.
WaterCIME Methodology
Reference Model As Is Model To Be Model Step by Step Approach Real Organization ASIS Utility
Plan
Assess
TOBE Utility
Figure 1.2 : WaterCIME methodology Generally speaking, any production management system can be divided into management levels, each level bringing together distinct
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elements so as to form a homogenous whole containing the same functionality. This division is commonly called the CIME pyramid (Figure 1.3). The means brought into operation at each of the levels of the CIME pyramid are different. At each level, there are functions some of which are executed using software.
Level 5 Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 Level 0
Company Management Factory Management Process Management Process Supervision Process Control Sensors / Actuators
Figure 1.3 : CIME pyramid Level 0  Sensors/Actuators Contains the whole of the sensors and actuators. It is the one closet to the process, the function of this level enables the development of the process to be followed and guided. At this level, process information is taken up toward level 1. Typically, we will find at this level motors, pressure sensors, and meters… Level 1 Process Control Corresponds to the management of the part of a facility (pumping station, reservoir, water tower…). At this level we find a control and operating system of the programmable automatic device type piloting the facility in real time. The absence of permanent communications between this level and the upper levels, means that interesting information is temporary stored with a view to its future repatriation. Level 2 Process Supervision This level manages a group of equipments which has to ensure a
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function or a group of clearly defined functions, such as pumping and storage. It is in charge of the management of alarms, monitoring of the process through animated supervision screen, filling of process data, creation of production reports, and the transmission of input or orders to level1 equipment. It corresponds to process daily management activities. The geographical dispersion of facilities requires the use of commutated or digital telephone networks or radio network, such as GSM, in order to exchange information between level 1 and 2. Level 3 Process Management This level is entrusted with the consistent management of a group of interconnected facilities or networks. Simulation and process optimization as well as the quality followup of the product, are carried out at this level. Level 4 Factory Management Corresponds to the management of a group of geographically close networks but not necessary interconnected. This is the role of a company regional management. At this level, process maintenance planning, spare part and store management are worked out. Level 5 Overall Company Management This level is a general management level. It is the level where decisions are made so as to improve the use of the system. This level needs information from facilities and networks, but also additional information concerning the topology of the process, human and technical resources, sales data, etc (WaterCIME, 1995). 1.5 Management and operational control of water supply and distribution systems
Water is linked to life and human activities from many angles and using drinking water has become a commonplace for each of us (Brunel University, 1997). Water flows as soon as we open the tap, as naturally as if it is spurting from a spring and we are far from thinking that the managers of water production and distribution services must devote sustained efforts to maintaining such a permanence and quality of service. Water is taken from surface resources or from underground resources. Then water is purified in treatment works by physical and chemical processes. The clean water is then pumped into a supply network of pipes. It may be
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stored in service reservoirs and it is distributed to the consumers through distribution pipe networks. Water is transported through the pipenetworks under pressure derived from the force of gravity and pumps. As users, we do not generally realize how complex the process is until we are victims of trouble such as pressure drops, supply cuts or doubtful quality – smell, taste, and appearance. It seems useful to briefly recall the structure of the water supply and distribution system. It consists three main parts: A. Treatment works
It is a process plant with a relatively high level of monitoring and control and dedicated communications network. Many variables are monitored at frequent intervals including flows, tank levels, water quality parameters etc. The plant contains many local control loops, but from the point of view of the control of an entire water system, the important relationship is between the intake flow from the source (cause) and the outflow (effect). When viewed as an input/output model, the treatment processes impose some operational constraints on the control problem including: minimum and maximum output flow at any time and total volume over 24 hours. B. Water supply systems
Water supply systems (also called Transmission system) share common features that are important from the operational control point of view: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Relatively simple network structure with a limited number of connections. Pipes of large diameter to transport bulk quantities of water. Large pump stations composed of numbers of highlift pumps. Interactions with the distribution part of the system can be modeled as demands and can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. Systems flows are often insensitive with respect to reservoir level variations.
The pipe system has relatively spare measurement and control and, typically, only key flows and pressures are monitored. C. Water distribution systems
The following features of water distribution systems are important
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from an operational control point of view: 1. 2. 3. 4. Complicated network structure with hundreds of connections and many pipeloops. A typical zone contains one service reservoir to sustain supplies and maintain pressures. Reservoir level variations may have significant impact on flows and pressures of the system. Elements such as booster pumps and control valves to control local conditions.
The distribution system has also relatively spare measurements and control. Typically only a few key flows and pressures are monitored frequently. The distribution part can include many subsystems. Complex water systems composed of many subsystems required an adequate control structure. The lower level decision structure (Level 0Sensors/Actuators of CIME pyramid) directly interacts with the physical system by a distributed telemetry system (SCADA system). The responsibilities of the operator, in a local control room, can vary from following orders from the upper level to solving some parameterized subproblems. Schedules for major control elements calculated by the coordination level are based on abstract mathematical models and the local manager or operator has to convert them into direct control action taking into account detailed physical layouts of the control elements. Typically a computer model of the water network is the basic tool for the manager and operator so the control decisions before being applied to the physical system are verified by this model. 1.6 Use computer model of water network systems
The problem of integrating IT systems is one of which is facing all hydraulic schema operators. Progress in this field has led to the development of tools and softwares bringing considerable improvement in the performances of their design, execution, operation, maintenance, and marketing and sales services, but most often quite separately. Based on this observation, overall management of these systems has to be optimized by avoiding inconsistencies and redundancies, and by drawing most advantage from the synergies involved. For many years, design and projects have used computer modeling programs (WaterCIME, 1995), a trend that has been amplified by development of computerassisted drawing and design. It is necessary to use modeling methods for a water network system of a company to correspond to the computer integrated management system of
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the CIME pyramid. In modern system control of water supply and distribution, there is a need for more systematic handling of system complexities and for prevision of more efficient guidelines for overall operations. A model may be considered as an abstraction and simplified representation of the reality. Its aim is to help to better perceive the reality or to help to better achieve the objectives which have been set, and to predict the results of different solution which may be brought to real problems. The model should simulate the variations in flow and pressure in the water supply pressurized pipe network. It should represent the dynamic operation of the pumping stations, valves, control valves and reservoirs. Engineers are using water supply modeling in two main areas, substantiating new infrastructure and daytoday operational planning. A model is constructed to represent the hydraulic behavior of the real system and must be calibrated to ensure that the simulation represents the true operation of the real network. Once this is achieved the modeler can try different improvements to the system without disturbing real customers or disrupting normal operations. Each scenario can be simulated and the best solution chosen for implementation. The model is also extremely useful in providing support in daytoday operations for looking at contingency planning, operational maintenance and emergency situations such as firefighting and pollution management. The construction of a model is a data intensive process and involves manipulating key asset data from a number of different sources. The latest generation modeling software has a number of advanced tools for making the job of building, calibrating and reporting much easier. By linking to Geographical Information Systems (GIS) it is possible to build the network model automatically from asset information held within it to reduce effort in constructing the network in the modeling software. Links to live data sources make the job of calibration much easier and model management enables the modeler to keep track of data sources, different model versions and the updating of live models. When choosing modeling software to undertake water supply network modeling one should consider the following: How well does it integrate with GIS systems such as ArcView or MapInfo? How fast and robust is the hydraulic simulation? How quickly will I be able to construct my model and use it? How will I be able to keep track of my data coming into the model and then manage it? How will I be able to keep my models up to date?
1.
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What tools will be available to help me validate and verify my model? Is it able to be connected with external systems such as SCADA system?
The two major contradictory objectives of modeling and optimizing the water supply systems are security of water supplying and minimizing the water production and transportation costs (Guhl, 1999). This is the role of the optimization tools. In order to achieve these two objectives optimization tools can be supported by tools that play essential roles in the management and optimization of water supply systems, these tools are (Figure 1.4): 1. 2. 3. 4. Robust model, this depends mainly on the adopted modeling software. Calibration module. Demand prediction module SCADA system communication is essential in the process of the optimization.
In general, these four mainstays (Figure 1.4) represent the fundamental elements in the management and optimization problem of water supply systems, and they constitute the core of this thesis and they will be described in details in the chapters coming later.
AsIs System (Non Optimized) Demand Predictor Calibration Tools Modeling Tools
SCADA
ToBe System (Optimized)
Figure 1.4 : Mainstays of optimization
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CHAPTER 2
2.
Thesis Problematic and Objectives
2.1
Canal de Provence Company and needs for modeling tools
As in any regional planning and management operation, it is very important to implement technical solutions, to mobilize financial plans and to manage the operations of whole system while making profit of all the interventions and while bringing an effective assistant to the most fragile or most difficult zones. As many organizations charged to distribute water, the Canal de Provence Company (French: Société du Canal de Provence, SCP) attaches an increasing importance to the followup and the optimization of the operation of its works. This concern relates to the service quality as well as the reduction in the operating costs, maintenance and adaptation of the installations to the evolution of demand (Jean, 2003). The operation and the hydraulic installations of the Canal de Provence were most important and especially most urgent to realize, it thus should have been made sure that the transport network systems would derive from the Verdon River only volumes necessary to the uses. Consequently, an effective control and regulation are essential to prevent that one does not fall into levels of weak operation and efficiency that waste the resources and generate excessive capital costs. With the aim of better meeting what we have just presented above, SCP developed and installed, within the framework of its research program, a telemetry network connected to a host computer of supervision at the Control Central, named CGTC (French: Centre Général de TéléControl), for the operation of the hydraulic works. This one collects and presents the data coming from many sensors of flows, pressures, operation of pumps and valves, disseminated on a wide perimeter. Measurements are filed and stored every fifteen minutes in the database of the supervisor and in the case of the principal hydraulic works ensure a monitoring and a control in real time (Dynamic Regulation). The great number of information does not allow a permanent followup of the state of all the equipments from where SCP had to set up a module of automatic failures control to announce them to the operator. The software of supervision provides to other applications historical measurements that must be coherent the ones with the others. This
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coherence is generally not respected because of the inaccuracy of the data. The purpose of the module of the measurements reconciliation (Canivet, 2002) is to bring practical solutions to these two problems. For obvious economic reasons, this network of telemetry is much less dense on the feeders and mains supply or distribution pipe networks that represent the majority of linear installations (approximately 5,000 km). However, the operating conditions for the whole are similar: Continuous followup of the networks operation to detect, at the appropriate time, the abnormal operations or the incidents. Operation optimization primarily from the economic perspective and security of system supplying. This function can be very complex when it applies to multiple works equipping the networks (closed meshes, pumping stations, tanks, turbine, etc.) Choice of emergency operations to be carried out in case of incident so as to minimize their consequences. Highlighting the evolution of demand to anticipate the saturation of the networks and to launch in time the reinforcement operations. The use of numerical simulation models could bring, in theory, an effective assistant but in practice they are complex when they are used in realtime operation, and are far from having all the necessary functionalities. Regarding the networks modeling tools, SCP has basically three modeling and simulation softwares that it already used but of which two are today not really installed in an operational way: o IRMA and RAMI : “House” software developed by SCP (France) o PICCOLO : developed by SAFÉGE (France) o FINESSE : developed by De Montfort University (UK). The Engineering Division uses usually the “house” tools IRMA and RAMI. This last allows the optimized dimensioning of the system of branching pipes. IRMA allows modeling all types of networks whose pipe’s diameters are known to check the pressures at the service points or the compensation of the demand by the tanks. IRMA and RAMI are dependent, RAMI is requested by IRMA to dimension the pipes whose diameters are to be defined. The large majority of the networks at SCP are today available under IRMA format files (*.irm). About PICCOLO software, in spite of the fact that it is available in SCP, it seems that PICCOLO was never used in SCP to realize hydraulic simulation studies on any of its networks. PICCOLO was only used during two projects abroad that carried out on networks that are not operated by
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SCP. Moreover, this version of PICCOLO is an OffLine simulator, but the SAFÉGE has developed a new version with a module that allows link between PICCOLO and SCADA system. This version is not available at SCP. However, feedback from the experience on its own particular case has led SCP to participate as a lead company in the European research and development project socalled WaterCIME (1995). Three years after, during another european project, which related to WaterCIME project, called “WaterMain” Water Management Integration (1998), in cooperation with De Montfort University (DMU – UK), SCP had installed set of software tools on the pilot site at the regional operating room of Trévaresse network at Saint Cannat. They were tried, tested and improved. These set of software tools constitute what was called “WaterMain platform”; and SCP started to test simulation software directly connected to its network of telemetry. The software in question is called FINESSE, acronym for “Fully Integrated Network Editing, Simulation and Scheduling Environment”. FINESSE was developed by DMU. This software is able to reach the data stored in the database of supervisor of the CGTC of SCP. The innovation brought by this installation is the “On Line” networks simulation, and thus the possibility of connecting the simulation model with the supervision system making it possible to confront measurements in realtime and to use measurements to improve modeling and conversely to use simulation calculations to complete the information for the operators and to optimize the networks operation. After WaterMain; it was appeared that FINESSE is a tool that had its place rather in the CGTC in Tholonet than in a regional control room. The reasons relate mainly to the cost of installation (licenses, materials and time of installation) and to the qualification level necessary for the users, which remains relatively high. 2.2 Thesis objectives
Apart from the practical aspects related to the installation of these softwares and to their integration with the telemetry systems at SCP, the use of their models raises a certain number of theoretical problems which are far from being taken into account or solved: Possibility of calibrating of the hydraulic characteristics by simple but robust and sufficiently precise methods. This calibration must be taken again several times per season because of the possible evolution of the roughness of the pipes. Observability of the system state (pressures and flows) from only
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limited number of pressure and flow measurements, and the possibility of reconstituting of intermediate series of measures in space and in time. Forecast of the water demand using historical demands information and evaluation of the precision and the reliability of these forecasts. Optimization of the operating costs and ensuring the necessary service and the normal constraints of water supply service. Generally it is a question of minimizing the energy expenses but other criteria can be taken into account such as the limitation of the number of labors. The available softwares mentioned previously are based on hydraulic simulations and have modules able to offer with more or less precision some of these functionalities. FINESSE, software of modeling and “On Line” and “Real Time” simulation is obviously not implemented in a really operational way because it does not arrive yet to its state of final maturation. Indeed, SCP maybe could be much interested in FINESSE as a tool that could be effective for daily use by the manager of the hydraulic works. A pumpturbine plant is considered and it is neither modeled nor optimized yet, thus it is the occasion to put to the test the software. Moreover, a collaboration agreement was signed with DMU for technical assistance during this research work and had allowed to more easily analyze the theoretical bases of FINESSE software and to possibly adapt its functionalities to the needs. The objective of the thesis is thus to study the theoretical and practical problems related to the use of computer simulation models and softwares to optimize the operation of the pressurized water distribution and irrigation networks. The theoretical bases of these softwares will be analyzed, and the complementary modules necessary to their practical use will be developed to meet the needs listed and expressed by the services of networks operation. A particular SCP’s water supply network, called “Toulon Est”, was selected as our casestudy where a development program is proposed upon the decision of SCP to improve safety and reliability of the watersupplying service for the eastern zone of the region of Toulon City. The program includes the construction of a reversible pumpturbine plant which will be installed close to a dam called Trapan, of 2 Mm3 in volume. Thus, in this thesis we will highlight the problems of the optimization of the management of the “Toulon Est” hydraulic system and also Trapan dam and the future pumpturbine plant. Owning to the fact that this pumpturbine plant is not yet constructed its management and operation are still not completely well defined, and many questions rise concerning the following important points:
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2.3
The optimal scheduling and operation of the revisable pump, Trapan dams, and the water tanks. The volume of water that can be pumped and the volume of water that can be turbined. The pumping costs and the turbining returns. When we have to pump and when we can turbine. The influence on the water quality in the Trapan dam. The eventual scenarios and hydraulics constrains.
Presentation of Canal de Provence Company (SCP)
Three interdependent territorial communities created the Canal de Provence Company (SCP) at the behest of the Ministry of Agriculture in 1957: The departments of “Le Var”, “BouchesduRhône”, and “La Vallée de Marseille”. Sharing their rights of water, these communities commissioned to SCP to assure the hydraulic management and planning of the Provence Region, and particularly to conceive, to realize and to operate the Canal de Provence. SCP is a mixed – semipublic – water company. Its capital of 3.7 million euros is today distributed between the following: Region of “Provence –Alpes – Côte d’Azur (PACA)”, Department of “BouchesduRhône”, Department of “Le Var”, Department of “Vaucluse”, Department of “Alpesde HauteProvence et des HautesAlpes”, Marseille City, Farmers’ Associations and the Regional Fund of “ Crédit Agricole ” of the above five departments, the National Fund of “ Crédit Agricole ”, the “Deposit and Consignment Office” (Jean, 2003). At the request of the territorial communities concerned, by means of the state and of the region, SCP realized and continues to realize hydraulic managements for the Provence Region. These largescale managements required the creation of more than 250 million cubic meters of stored reserves backs 7 dams. They implied the realization of 150 Km of subterranean galleries, 121 km of open canals, 34 large regulating structures, 14 civil engineering structures, 75 dams, 580 km of transporting pipelines, 4,200 km of distributing pipelines, 83 pumping stations and boosters, 212 stations of remote transmission, more than 52,000 points of consumption. The Canal de Provence was able to divert high quality water from Verdon River thanks to the hydroelectric management of Durance River and Verdon River realized by France’s Electricity Company (French: Électricité De France, EDF). It will eventually allow the irrigation of 60,000 hectares, which is more than third of the cultivated zones of the concerned region. It supplies more than 500 industrial enterprises, and supplies to hundred of municipalities in “BouchesduRhône” and “Le Var” either drinking water,
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or a raw water requiring only elementary treatments. The structures of the Canal de Provence can be classified in two groups:  Main structures including the main canal and four branches that drive the water since Verdon River towards La Provence and the coastal zone. Flow of water is driven by gravity and the discharges decrease from 40 to 10 m3 /s.  Secondary installations (or pressurized distribution networks) that include 580 km of pipes between 500 and 1,300 mm in diameter, and 420 km secondary pipes of diameter lower than 500 mm. In harmony with its philosophy, the strategy of SCP, its project, its quality assurance approach and its system of environmental management, aim to reconcile satisfaction of the customer, respect for the environment and to assure a strict financial balance. Expertise acquired by SCP has allowed it to promote engineering products adapted to the necessities of the public or private specialists of planning and management. Not less than thirty disciplines are represented at SCP: from hydraulics to landscaped architecture, from electronics to agronomy, from civil engineering to microbiology, from geology to land expertise. On the occasion of its researches and its achievements, SCP established a wide network of French and foreign partners: research or financial organisms, specialized research departments, and big companies. SCP intervened mainly in several countries: Albania, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Bolivia, Cameroon, China, Egypt, the United States, Greece, India, Iraq, Morocco, Oman, Tunisia, Jordan, etc. From its creation, SCP dedicated huge efforts in the development researches, particularly in the methods of calculation and operation of hydraulic works and facilities. It led, in the 60s, in major innovations, today adopted all over the world. It is notably about the “Dynamic Regulation” system of Canal de Provence, and optimization methods of the pressurized irrigation networks. The activities of research and development concern today all the domains of competence and intervention of SCP. In most of cases, researches are realized in association with specialized partners; universities and schools, public researches centers, other regional management companies and societies, big public and private companies, research departments. This thesis comes within the framework of the research programs of SCP.
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Figure 2.1 : General view of Canal de Provence
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2.4
Presentation of the “Toulon Est” water supply network
The present study is concerned with one of the SCP’s water networks constituting the water supply system “Les Laures  Trapan  La Môle” composed of the main supply pipe of the same name and the sets of the derived storage tanks, the unit being commonly called “Toulon Est” (Figure 2.2).
Les Laures
Point A Z= 295.0 m Point C Z=98.0 m Point F Mont Redon Z=30.7 m Point H Z=6.8 m Pierrascas Fenouillet Point G Z=17.0 m Golf Hôtel Point T Z=75.0 m
Trapan
Point M Z= 35.0 m
La Môle
Figure 2.2 : General view of “Toulon Est” water supply network (CGTCSCADA interface) 2.5 Description of the existing hydraulic system of “Toulon East”
The zone covered by this study understands the whole hydraulic infrastructures, main pipelines and tanks, located downstream from the divisor of “Les Laures” to the outlet of the Valaury gallery, to the supply point of La Môle (Engineering DivisionSCP, 2002). a) “Les Laures” divisor –(Point A) It is an impact block dissipator linking the network to the extremity of the “Toulon Est” branch of Canal de Provence (Figure 2.3). The water withdrawal from the Canal is carried out through a pressurized gallery and then it derived by a 1,000mm pipe provided with a butterfly control valve. Two parallels pipes (one is 400 mm, the other is 1,000 mm) equipped with modern electromagnetic flowmeters are linked to the 1,000mm pipe. This dissipator consists of a basin equipped with a shutoff floating diaphragm
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(800 mm). An automatic filter extends the basin and retains the suspended particles greater than 2 mm. This work is connected to the main pipeline by a penstock (1,250 mm). The whole of this dissipator is bypassed by 1,250mm pipe at the beginning and then 600mm pipe on which is mounted a pressure regulator. The theoretical maximum flow available at the end of the gallery is 10 m3/s at altitude of 295 m above mean see level (French: Nivellement Général de la France, NGF). However the dissipator actual flow is about 3.5 m3/s (maximum). The highest water level of the basin is 295 m NGF, and the lowest water level is 293 m NGF.
Divisor Dissipator
ByPass
Figure 2.3 : Point A – Les Laures b) “Les Laures – La Môle” main water supply pipeline The “Toulon Est” system is structured around the main pipeline “Les Laures – La Môle”. This feeder, approximately 43 km in length, can be divided into two sections (Figure 2.2):  Section N° 1 “Les Laures – Trapan” is 26 km in length, was installed in 1976. It consists of 1,000mm pipe 7 km in length, 900mm pipe 7 km in length, and 700mm pipe 12 km in length. This section extends from the dissipator until the Trapan dam. It supplies the Trapan dam, various irrigation networks, and five submain pipes.  Section N° 2 “Trapan – La Môle” is 700mm pipe in 17 km length, and was installed in 1978. It is an extension of the preceding section to the supply point of La Môle. It supplies some irrigation networks upstream the dissipator at Gratteloup and ends in the downstream at the level of La Môle. From this point departs a pipe to the supply point of the Water Distributing Association of La Corniche des Maures (French: Syndicat Intercommunal de Distribution d’Eau de la Corniche des Maures, SIDECM), and the suction manifold of the small booster of La Môle, which supplies the network of La Verne.
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c) Submain water supply pipelines The submain pipelines all have the same architecture: control apparatus at the head to the right of the connection point, connecting pipe to a water tank, tank with shutoff floating diaphragm from where departs a supply pipe for the irrigation networks. Characteristics of the submain pipelines are summarized in Table 2.1: Table 2.1 : Characteristics of the submain pipelines Submain Pierrascas Fenouillet Mont Redon Golf Hôtel Extension pipe 1,790 m  700 mm 2,080 m  600 mm 1,014 m  400 mm 1,350 m  700 mm Water Tank Elevation Volume (m3) (m NGF) 194.2 5,500 215.3 5,400 180.9 3,900 171.2 7,500
Figure 2.4 : Point C – Pierrascas tank
Figure 2.5 : Point F – Fenouillet tank
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Figure 2.6 : Point G – Mont Redon tank
Figure 2.7 : Point H – Golf Hôtel tank
Figure 2.8 : Point M – La Môle
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Figure 2.9 : Hydraulic profile of Toulon Est network
Les Laures Dissipator (295 m NGF)
Elevation ( m NGF)
Cumulated distance (km)
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d) Trapan dam The Trapan dam, located at the southwest of the communes of Bormes Les Mimosas, was constructed with an aim of supplementing the water supply to the eastern zone of Toulon City. The construction of Trapan dam and its operation were confided to SCP in February 1965. The first commissioning of this dam took place in 1968. This dam allows accumulating, in winter, about 2 Mm3 of water which are available to satisfy the water demand during the peak period. The feeding of Trapan dam is mixed, on the one hand the water delivered from “Toulon Est” network coming from the Verdon River; on the other hand the surface water coming from the surface runoff of the catchment area of the small stream of La Pellegrin upstream of the dam. This dam has two principal functions, after potabilization by Water and Ozone Company (French: Compagnie d’Eau et d’Ozone, CEO) downstream the dam, part of the potabilized water is distributed during the summer period of high consumption to the urban district of the nearby shoreline, and it can be also used for the load shedding of the basins of the Canal de Provence; when necessary.
Figure 2.10 : Point T – Trapan dam Trapan dam, in its current operating mode, is a static dam. The concern of the water quality control rises from this operating mode. The information feedbacks concerning the water quality come from the CEO. CEO carries out physicochemical controls of the water which delivered to the CEO from the dam for potabilization. The problems punctually encountered during the summer period relate to the water temperature sometimes very high near the surface, and a high concentration of Manganese, Iron and Ammonium near the bottom in summer. The operator switch the supply of the CEO directly from the feeder “Les Laures – La Môle” if a water quality problem is detected at the CEO supply point from the dam.
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In practice the dam useful volume is less than 2 Mm3 because of the deposits at the bottom of the dam and the water quality problems. However the operator points out that in case of emergency water supply, the low water level to be considered is 45 m (1.8 Mm3 useful volume). The existing management of the dam is very simple; the only operating constraint is to start the peak demand season with a full reserve, to limit the water quality problems related to the temperature as mentioned above. For that the filling of Trapan starts in February and spreads out until May. The dam feeding setup from the main pipeline consists of a dissipator equipped with a shutoff floating diaphragm. The exit of the dissipator is double and makes it possible to supply either the dam from the bottom, or directly supplying the CEO in case of accidental pollution or insufficient water quality of Trapan. The maximum theoretical flow of this work is of 600 l/s. 2.6 Operation and hydraulic management
The hydraulic management of “Toulon Est” system remained of passive type, without real dynamic control of storage volumes available in the five tanks. Their filling is controlled from the downstream by means of a shutoff floating diaphragm. Their filling flow is determined by the pressure valve downstream the corresponding pressure reducing valve, which ensures also the reduction of the maximum service pressure. Generally, it appears that the tanks are requested very little in their function of demand compensation and that they are maintained full permanently, even during the peak periods of water demand. Until recently, the hydraulic system of “Toulon Est” was far from saturation because the emergency water supply contract of the SIDECM had been considerably decreased in January 2000. However, the exceptional climatic condition at the end of the year 2001 and at the beginning of the year 2002 led the SIDECM to subscribe an increase in its urban contract to 410 l/s. The totality of this flow was actually mobilized during the peak season of 2002. A dynamic simulation during peak period showed that this increase in water supply contract would have brought up the water demand to a level close to saturation what would have resulted in a theoretical pressure insufficient at Le Col Gratteloup point during the peak period. A dynamic control of Golf Hôtel tank was therefore set up. The principle is such that filling the tank during offpeak hours and emptying it during peak hours so that the instantaneous demand at the head of the network stays almost close to its continuous average flow.
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2.7
Water demand of the zone “Toulon Est”
Globally, the annual volume introduced into the zone of “Toulon Est” is relatively stable, close to 16 to 17 Mm3 during last years, of which 98% are provided by the Canal de Provence from the divisor of “Les Laures”, and 2% by the sources of Carnoules. An important part of the introduced volumes is not counted (more than 30%). In order to identify the source of these losses the Maintenance Division replaced the flowmeters in the network. The demand can be characterized by type of use: a) Industrial demand: is very small, it represents approximately 1% of the total demand. Only one customer of this type exists in the zone of “Toulon Est” that is La Varoise Distillery Company concerning a supply of 10 l/s during normal use. b) Urban demand: it represents approximately 18% of the mobilized annual volume. The supply is mainly concerned with raw water, except for the commune of Cures and the NavalAir Base de Cures Pierrefeu to which drinking water is delivered. c) Irrigation agricultural and nonagricultural demand and diverse water use: is very significant since it represents nearly 50% of the total demand. The zone “Toulon Est” supplies around twenty irrigation networks, for a total subscribed surface of 6,525 hectares in 2000. These networks all almost derive water from branches on the main pipeline. A small number of them are supplied directly from the main pipeline “Les Laures – la Môle”. These networks gather various types of water use characterized as follow:  Agricultural irrigation, it concerns mainly water supply for a greenhouse growers. This type of user requires a flow throughout the year. Thus, even in winter, there is a significant irrigation flow.  Nonagricultural Irrigation, for watering mainly the green areas.  Diverse uses, for the other uses (domestic water supply, swimming pool, …). According to the annual report published by the maintenance staff concerning the efficiency of the networks, it is possible to know the overall distribution of billed volumes between the various uses as well as the demand interannual variations. The low number of operational flowmeters in the zone of “Toulon Est” constrained us to approach the daily demand of the irrigation and diverse uses networks.
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2.8
Development program of the zone “Toulon Est”
The general study of the hydraulic operation and the development program of the zone of “Toulon Est” has as principal objective of maintaining water supply of the customers located between the divisor of Les Laures and the Trapan dam in the case of unavailability of water from Les Laures or in the case of burst on the main pipeline between Les Laures and Trapan. The development program considers the construction of reversible pumpturbine plant at Trapan and of a new water tank to be built at Le Col Gratteloup.  Reversible pumpturbine station of Trapan dam According to the development program of “Toulon Est”, the station had been proposed following the decision of SCP to improve safety and reliability of the watersupplying service for the eastern zone of the region of Toulon City. The primary objective is to maintain the possibility of supplying the priority customers in the case of unavailability of water from Les Laures or in the case of pipe bursting on the main pipeline between Les Laures and Trapan making out of service the infrastructures of the Canal de Provence upstream of the divisor of Les Laures for a long time. The second objective is to generate electrical energy by the possibility of equipping the station with a reversible pumpturbine unit.  New water tank at Le Col Gratteloup It is proposed to build a new tank at Le Col Gratteloup that will come to supplement the five tanks available on the main pipeline of “Toulon Est”. Its function is to contribute in the increase in the available system flow and in association with the future pumping station. In addition, it will make it possible to maximize the potential net income of the electrical energy production. The size of this tank will depend on the requested objective concerning the safety level and energy income. It will be at least of 5,000 m3 for a minimal safety objective and to optimize the operation of the unit as turbine, and it will be to the maximum of 20,000 m3 to maximize the energy income and to increase the safety level. The operations of the future reversible pumping station of Trapan and proposals, scenarios, and options will be presented and studied later in Chapter 10.
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CHAPTER 3
3.
Water Distribution Network System Hydraulics and Modeling
3.1
Anatomy of water distribution network system
Although the size and complexity of water distribution systems vary dramatically, they all have the same basic purpose; to deliver water from the source (or treatment facility) to the customer. 3.1.1 Source of water
Untreated water (also called raw water) may come from groundwater sources or surface waters such as lakes, reservoirs, and rivers. The raw water is usually transported to a water treatment plant, where it is processed to produce treated water (also known as potable or finished water). The degree to which the raw water is processed to achieve potability depends on the characteristics of the raw water, relevant drinking water standards, treatment processes used, and the characteristics of the distribution system. In the case of groundwater, many sources offer up consistently high quality water that could be consumed without disinfection. 3.1.2 Customers of water
Customers of a water supply system are easily identified  they are the reason that the system exists in the first place. Homeowners, factories, hospitals, restaurants, golf courses, and thousands of other types of customers depend on water systems to provide everything from safe drinking water to irrigation. Customers and the nature in which they use water are the driving mechanism behind how a water distribution system behaves (Babbitt, 1931). Water use can vary over time in the longterm, mediumterm, and the shortterm, and over space. Good knowledge of how water use is distributed across the system is critical to accurate modeling.
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3.1.3
Transport facilities
Moving water from the source to the customer requires a network of pipes, pumps, valves, and other appurtenances. Storing water to accommodate fluctuations in demand due to varying rates of usage or fire protection needs requires storage facilities such as tanks and reservoirs. Piping, storage, and the supporting infrastructure are together referred to as the water distribution system (WDS). This system of piping is often categorized into transmission/trunk mains and distribution mains. Transmission mains consist of components that are designed to convey large amounts of water over great distances, typically between major facilities within the system. For example, a transmission main may be used to transport water from a treatment facility to storage tanks throughout several cities and towns. Individual customers are usually not served from transmission mains. Distribution mains are an intermediate step toward delivering water to the end customers. Distribution mains are smaller in diameter than transmission mains, and typically follow the general topology and alignment of the city streets. Elbows, tees, wyes, crosses, and numerous other fittings are used to connect and redirect sections of pipe. Fire hydrants, isolation valves, control valves, blowoffs, and other maintenance and operational appurtenances are frequently connected directly to the distribution mains. Services, also called service lines, transmit the water from the distribution mains to the end customers. Homes, businesses, and industries have their own internal plumbing systems to transport water to sinks, washing machines, and so forth. Typically, the internal plumbing of a customer is not included in a WDS model; however, in some cases, such as sprinkler systems, internal plumbing may be modeled. 3.1.4 System configurations
Transmission and distribution systems can be either looped or branched, as shown in Figure 3.1. As the name suggests, in looped systems there may be several different paths that the water can follow to get from the source to a particular customer. In a branched system, also called a tree or dendritic system, the water has only one possible path from the source to a customer. Looped systems are generally more desirable than branched systems because, coupled with sufficient valving, they can provide an additional level of reliability. For example, consider a main break occurring near the reservoir in each system depicted in Figure 3.2. In the looped system, that break can be isolated and repaired with little impact on customers outside of that immediate area. In the branched system, however, all the customers
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downstream from the break will have their water service interrupted until the repairs are finished. Another advantage of a looped configuration is that, because there is more than one path for water to reach the user, the velocities will be lower, and system capacity greater. Most water supply systems are a complex combination of loops and branches, with a tradeoff between loops for reliability (redundancy) and branches for infrastructure cost savings (Walski, 2004).
Figure 3.1 : Looped and branched networks
Figure 3.2 : Looped and branched networks after network failure
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3.1.5
Solving network problems
Real water distribution systems do not consist of a single pipe and cannot be described by a single set of continuity and energy equations. Instead, one continuity equation must be developed for each node in the system, and one energy equation must be developed for each pipe (or loop), depending on the method used. For real systems, these equations can number in the thousands. The first systematic approach for solving these equations was developed by Hardy Cross (1936). The invention of digital computers, however, allowed more powerful numerical techniques to be developed. These techniques set up and solve the system of equations describing the hydraulics of the network in matrix form. Because the energy equations are nonlinear in terms of flow and head, they cannot be solved directly. Instead, these techniques estimate a solution and then iteratively improve it until the difference between solutions falls within a specified tolerance. At this point, the hydraulic equations are considered solved. Some of the methods used in network analysis are described in (Bhave, 1991), (Lansey, 2000), and (Todini, 1987). Chapter 5 of this thesis is devoted for the methods for solving water pipe networks problem. 3.2 Water distribution network system simulation
The term simulation generally refers to the process of imitating the behavior of one system through the functions of another. Here, the term simulation refers to the process of using a mathematical representation of the real system, called a model. Network simulations, which replicate the dynamics of an existing or proposed system, are commonly performed when it is not practical for the real system to be directly subjected to experimentation, or for evaluating a system before it is actually built (Ulanicki, 2001). In addition, for situations in which water quality is an issue directly testing a system may be costly and a potentially hazardous risk to public health. Simulations can be used to predict system responses to events under a wide range of conditions without disrupting the actual system. Using simulations, problems can be anticipated in proposed or existing systems, and solutions can be evaluated before time, money, and materials are invested in a realworld project. For example, a water utility might want to verify that a new subdivision can be provided with enough water to fight a fire without compromising the level of service to existing customers. The system could be built and tested directly, but if any problems were to be discovered, the cost of correction would be enormous. Regardless of
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project size, modelbased simulation can provide valuable information to assist an engineer in making wellinformed decisions (Fishwick, 1995). Simulations can either be steadystate or extendedperiod. Steadystate simulations represent a snapshot in time and are used to determine the operating behavior of a system under static conditions. This type of analysis can be useful in determining the shortterm effect of fire flows or average demand conditions on the system. Extended period simulations (EPS) are used to evaluate system performance over time. This type of analysis allows the user to model tanks filling and draining, regulating valves opening and closing, and pressures and flow rates changing throughout the system in response to varying demand conditions and automatic control strategies formulated by the modeler. Modern simulation software packages use a Graphical User Interface (GUI) that makes it easier to create models and visualize the results of simulations. Oldergeneration software relied exclusively on tabular input and output. 3.3 Water distribution network system modeling
Today, water distribution modeling is a critical part of designing and operating water distribution systems that are capable of serving communities reliably, efficiently, and safely, both now and in the future (Male, 1990). The availability of increasingly sophisticated and accessible models allows these goals to be realized more fully than ever before. This part is an introduction to water distribution modeling by giving an overview of the basic distribution system modeling, defining the nature and purposes of distribution system models, and outlining the basic steps in the modeling process. 3.3.1 Application of models
Most Water Distribution Models (WDMs) can be used to analyze a variety of other pressure piping systems, such as industrial cooling systems, oil pipelines, or any network carrying an incompressible, singlephase, Newtonian fluid in full pipes. Municipal water utilities, however, are by far the most common application of these models (Cesario, 1991). Models are especially important for WDSs due to their complex topology, frequent growth and change. It is not uncommon for a system to supply hundreds of thousands of people (large networks supply millions); thus, the potential impact of a utility decision can be tremendous. In general terms the problem area could be related to operational, planning or legislative requirements and more recently to water quality management. An overview
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of problem types in water supply systems, which could be analyzed by using the hydraulic network models are presented in Table 3.1 (Pilipovic, 2004). Table 3.1 : Types of problems that could be analyzed by modeling
Domain Possible Problem
Developing and understanding of how the system operates Training water system operators Assessing the level of service Assessing the carrying capacity of the existing system Assessing the efficiency of current operational management policy Assessing levels of pressures at critical points within the system Identifying and resolving operational anomalies – closed valves Low pressure or high pressure fluctuation problems Low fire flow at hydrants  if it is different from expected capacity Daily operational use  shutting down a section of the system due to major breaks Power outage – impact on pump stations Sizing control points – subsystem metering, control valves – PRV, PSV, FCV Sizing sprinkler systems – fire service and other Assessing the available range of pressure at customer connections Real time control of the system Identifying the impact of future population growth on the existing system Identifying the impact of major new industrial or commercial developments on the existing system Identifying key bottlenecks in current and future systems Designing the reinforcement to the existing system to meet future demand Designing the new distribution system Optimizing the capital works programs
Operational Management
Planning
Assessing the new resource option Assessing the effects of rehabilitation techniques Leak control – Reducing losses by lowering maximum pressure Demand management – Reducing the pressure related demand by lowering service pressure Sizing elements of the system to meet fire service requirements in existing and future systems Assessing the value and design of distribution monitoring systems – Telemetry, Data Loggers Contingency planning – Answering “ what if “ questions on major outages Long Term Council Community Plan (LTCCP) and Water Assessments – Assessing levels of service, Regulatory levels of service reporting, and options for future planning based on community consultations Public Health  Maintaining levels of residual Free Available Chlorine (FAC) within predefined values. Assessing the financial contribution required for new developments Fire Service Code of Practice – Water and pressure requirements for fire fighting purposes Disinfectant residual assessments  levels of FAC throughout the system
Legislative
Water Quality
Substance tracking, determination of age of water, water blending from various sources Distribution Systems Flushing  velocity and flow assessments, sedimentation trends Analyzing water quality contamination events
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3.3.2
Modeling process
Development and use of water distribution models comprises of many activities and processes. As with any such complex task, it can be managed more successfully and efficiently if it is broken down into its components or stages. The process is common for almost any such type of project, regardless of the size of the system and it could be divided into eight characteristic stages, namely: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Setting up a new modeling project or Reestablishing the existing, Data Collection, Model Build (or Model Update), Data Verification and Model testing, Model Calibration and Validation, Model Use, Results Interpretation, Reports and model documentation, Change monitoring and model management.
Some tasks can be done in parallel while others must be done in series. The first step in undertaking any modeling project is to develop a consensus within the water utility regarding the need for the model and the purposes for which the model will be used in both the short and longterm. It is important to have utility personnel, from upper management and engineering to operations and maintenance, commit to the model in terms of human resources, time, and funding. Modeling should not be viewed as an isolated endeavor by a single modeler, but rather a utilitywide effort with the modeler as the key worker (Cesario, 1995). After the vision of the model has been accepted by the utility, decisions on such issues as extent of model simplification and accuracy of calibration will naturally follow. Most of the work in modeling must be done before the model can be used to solve real problems. Therefore, it is important to budget sufficient time to use the model once it has been developed and calibrated. Too many modeling projects fall short of their goals for usage because the modelbuilding process takes up all of the allotted time and resources. There is not enough time left to use the model to understand the full range of alternative solutions to the problems (Walski, 2003). Modeling involves a series of abstractions. First, the real pipes and pumps in the system are represented in maps and drawings of those facilities. Then, the maps are converted to a model that represents the facilities as links and nodes. Another layer of abstraction is introduced as the behaviors of the links and nodes are described mathematically. The model equations are then solved, and the solutions are typically displayed
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on maps of the system or as tabular output. A model’s value stems from the usefulness of these abstractions in facilitating efficient design of system improvements or better operation of an existing system. Before building a model, it is necessary to gather information describing the network. Many potential sources are available for obtaining the data required to generate a water distribution model, and the availability of these sources varies dramatically from utility to utility. Some of the most commonly used resources, including system maps, asbuilt drawings, and electronic data files. There are three types of data essential for assembling a water distribution model as outlined in Table 3.2 , Table 3.3 and Table 3.4. These are network data, water demand data, and operational data. The most fundamental data requirement is to have an accurate representation of the network topology, which details what the elements are and how they are interconnected. If a model does not faithfully duplicate realworld layout (for example, the model pipe connects two nodes that are not really connected), then the model will never accurately describe realworld performance, regardless of the quality of the remaining data (Pilipovic, 2004). Because models may contain tens of thousands of elements, naming conventions are an important consideration in making the relationship between realworld components and model elements as obvious as possible. Naming conventions should mirror the way the modeler thinks about the particular network by using a mixture of prefixes, suffixes, numbers, and descriptive text. The following should be noted in the management of the modeling process (Cesario, 1995): The key decision which must be made at the very start of the process is whether or not to use the hydraulic network modeling software as the right tool for providing answers to problems faced in managing water distribution systems. If a hydraulic network model is the right tool, running the water distributionmodeling project is an ongoing activity, which needs regular model updating and checking if the existing model is still an adequate tool for providing answers to actual requirements. The process of the management of the modeling process inherently has many loops and feedbacks from previous steps. One of the key characteristics of the process is that these feedbacks make the modeling work an iterative process; not linear as it was traditionally presented. The modeling process should be considered as a process closely linked to other corporate systems, not as an isolated activity. The model’s output provides input and support to many strategic
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Water Utilities programs or policies, and the model requires strong linkages with GIS, Telemetry, Water billing and other corporate systems. The process requires at various stages, agreements with involved parties, on reached decisions about the quality of completed work at certain project stages and recommendations prior to commencement of the next stage. Supervision of the project should be continuously run from the beginning of the process by preferably one party based more on a working relationship than on traditional audit control approach. Depending on the size of the distribution systems, models can vary from very simple  with only one water source and a small network, up to very complex systems with multiple sources and sophisticated operation regimes. Although the level of complexity in managing a modeling project varies with the size and complexity of a particular system the principles of the modeling process remain the same. Table 3.2 : Network Data
Data
Nodes
Detail
Number or name Coordinates, Elevation Type – Network junctions or end points, source of water Initial node, end node Diameter – nominal or internal Length, Material, Construction year Pipe roughness, Minor loss coefficients Water Quality – Reaction rate coefficients: bulk and wall. Initial Node, end node Diameter, Length, Roughness coefficients Type – Throttled, NRV, PRV, PSV, PCV, TCV, FCV. Initial node end node Diameter of suction and delivery pipe Number or pump, name, pump type Pump delivery rate, delivery head, power Rotating speed, number of stage, efficiency Pump characteristic “Q – H – P curve”, protections Type – Fixed or variable speed pumps Number or reservoir name Shape and volume Inflow and outflow pipes arrangements Type – Storages, Water Towers Zone or sub zones boundary lines
Source
GIS, Asbuilt plans, Operational staff
Pipelines
GIS, Asbuilt plans, Operational staff Design standards, recommendations, hydraulic textbook Design standards, recommendations, hydraulic textbook GIS, Control valve database Asbuilt plans
Valves and control equipment Pumping stations
GIS Pump station database Asbuilt plans
Reservoirs
GIS , Reservoir database As – built plans
Zones Boundary
GIS, Contour plans
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Table 3.3 : Demand Data
Data
Existing demand Spatial Allocation Time varying factors Future demand
Detail
Yearly average or base consumption Type of consumer Level of water losses Location of water meters or water users Daily and hourly peaking factors Diurnal curves – Patterns of water use Projected future demand and its allocation
Source
Water Billing System, Sub meter readings Water Balance Sheet Minimum Night Flow Water Billing System, GIS Telemetry or data loggers Typical patterns Water Utility or regional planning documents
Table 3.4 : Operational Data
Data
Source node Pump Station Reservoirs Control Valves Zone valves
Detail
Hydraulic Grade Line Initial Water Quality, Baseline concentrations and patterns Pump’s operational regimes – setting points: pressure at node, water level at reservoir, time Water levels ranges – lower and upper operational limits Control regimes, control points, trigger values, throttled valves Locations of permanently closed valves
Source
Operational staff Operational staff SCADA Operational staff, SCADA Operational staff SCADA Operational staff, GIS
3.3.3
Network model elements
Water distribution models have many types of nodal elements, including junction nodes where pipes connect, storage tank and reservoir nodes, pump nodes, and control valve nodes. Models use link elements to describe the pipes connecting these nodes. Also, elements such as valves and pumps are sometimes classified as links rather than nodes. Table 3.5 lists each model element, the type of element used to represent it in the model, and the primary modeling purpose. Table 3.5 : Common network modeling elements
Element
Reservoir Tank Junction Pipe Pump Control Valve
Type
Node Node Node Link Node or link Node or link
Primary Modeling Purpose
Provides water to the system Stores excess water within the system and releases that water at times of high usage Removes (demand) or adds (inflow) water from/to the system Conveys water from one node to another Raises the hydraulic grade to overcome elevation differences and friction losses Controls flow or pressure in the system based on specified criteria
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3.3.4
Water quality modeling
Water quality modeling is a direct extension of hydraulic network modeling and can be used to perform many useful analyses (Rossman, 1996). Developers of hydraulic network simulation models recognized the potential for water quality analysis and began adding water quality calculation features to their models in the mid 1980s. Transport, mixing, and decay are the fundamental physical and chemical processes typically represented in water quality models. Water quality simulations also use the network hydraulic solution as part of their computations. Flow rates in pipes and the flow paths that define how water travels through the network are used to determine mixing, residence times, and other hydraulic characteristics affecting disinfectant transport and decay. The results of an extended period hydraulic simulation can be used as a starting point in performing a water quality analysis. The equations describing transport through pipes, mixing at nodes, chemical formation and decay reactions, and storage and mixing in tanks are adapted from Grayman, Rossman, and Geldreich (Grayman, 2000). The water quality modeling will not be approached in this research. 3.3.5 Model simplification (skeletonisation)
Model Simplification (or Skeletonization) is the process of selecting for inclusion in the model only the parts of the hydraulic network that have a significant impact on the behavior of the system. Attempting to include each individual service connection, gate valve, and every other component of a large system in a model could be a huge undertaking without a significant impact on the model results. Capturing every feature of a system would also result in tremendous amounts of data, enough to make managing, using, and troubleshooting the model a difficult and errorprone task. Simplification is a more practical approach to modeling that allows the modeler to produce reliable, accurate results without investing unnecessary time and money (Ulanicki, 1996). Eggener and Polkowski (Eggener, 1976) did the first study of simplification when they systematically removed pipes from a model of Menomonie, Wisconsin, to test the sensitivity of model results. They found that under normal demands, they could remove a large number of pipes and still not affect pressure significantly. Shamir and Hamberg (Shamir 1988a, 1988b) investigated rigorous rules for reducing the size of models. Simplification should not be confused with the omission of data. The portions of the system that are not modeled during the simplification process are not discarded; rather, their effects are accounted for within parts of the system that are included in the model.
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The network model simplification problem can be expressed as in the following statement: Find a hydraulic model of a network with a reduced number of components, which approximates the mapping between the input and output variables over a wide range of operating conditions, where: Input variables are: source inflows, source heads, demands, pump schedules and initial reservoir levels, and output variables are: flows in pipes and heads at nodes over a time horizon (Ulanicki, 1996). The reduced model should preserve the nonlinearity of the original network and approximate its operation accurately under different conditions. It is expected that the relationships between heads and demands are similar in both the full and reduced models. There are three common approaches to model simplification: element by element, variable elimination, and approximation. The element by element method includes two activities: skeletonisation of the structure and the use of equivalent pipes in place of numbers of pipes connected in parallel and/or in series. The skeletonisation technique eliminates pipes of a small diameter leaving only major pipes in the model. At the same time demands fed by smaller pipes are aggregated and allocated to the nearest upstream node of a major pipe. Variable elimination is based on a mathematical formalism. A pipe network mathematical model is a system of simultaneous algebraic equations. Some of variables (flows and heads) can be eliminated from these equations using an algorithm, thus reducing the size of a model. The FINESSE simplifier is based on a Gaussian elimination procedure (Ulanicki, 1996). Approximation is a method based on an estimation technique where an arbitrary topology of a simplified model is assumed where the simplified model includes all reservoirs and all pressure control nodes. The technique calculates parameters of pipes (resistance) and the distribution of the demand (demand factor) minimizing the difference of the behavior of a simplified model and network measurements. 3.3.6 Model calibration
Even though the required data have been collected and entered into a hydraulic simulation software package, the modeler cannot assume that the model is an accurate mathematical representation of the system (Ormsbee, 1997). The hydraulic simulation software simply solves the equations of continuity and energy using the supplied data; thus, the quality of the data will dictate the quality of the results. The accuracy of a hydraulic model depends on how well it has been calibrated, so a calibration analysis should always be performed before a model is used for decisionmaking purposes. The calibration process will be discussed in details in Chapter 7.
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3.3.7
Model maintenance
Once a water distribution model is constructed and calibrated, it can be modified to simulate and predict system behavior under a range of conditions. The model represents a significant investment on the part of the utility, and that investment should be maximized by carefully maintaining the model for use well into the future (Basford, 1995). The user needs to periodically update the model file so that installed piping is accurately distinguished from proposed facilities, and that facilities that will most likely never be installed are removed from the model. The modeler also needs to be in regular contact with operations personnel to determine when new piping is placed into service. Note that there may be a substantial lag between the time that a pipe or other facility is placed into service, and the time that facility shows up in the system map. The version of the model used for operational studies should not be updated until the facilities are actually placed into service. 3.4 Network water consumption
The consumption or use of water, also known as water demand, is the driving force behind the hydraulic dynamics occurring in water distribution systems. Anywhere that water can leave the system represents a point of consumption, including a customer’s faucet, a leaky main, or an open fire hydrant. Three questions related to water consumption must be answered when building a hydraulic model: (1) How much water is being used? (2) Where are the points of consumption located? and (3) How does the usage change as a function of time?. Water distribution models are created not only to solve the problems of today, but also to prevent problems in the future (Cesario, 1991). With almost any endeavor, the future holds a lot of uncertainty, and demand prediction is no exception. Longrange planning may include the analysis of a system for 5, 10, and 20year time frames. When performing longterm planning analyses, estimating future demands is an important factor influencing the quality of information provided by the model. The uncertainty of this process puts the modeler in the difficult position of trying to predict the future. The complexity of such analyses, however, can be reduced to some extent with software that supports such analysis. The demand prediction will be discussed in details in Chapter 8.
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3.5
Network system security
The security of water systems has long been a concern in the water industry. The potential for natural, accidental, and purposeful contamination or other events that would hinder the ability of the system to provide a safe water supply has been the subject of many studies (Walski, 2003). Because water systems are spatially diverse (see Figure 3.3), they are inherently vulnerable to a variety of activities that can compromise the system’s ability to reliably deliver sufficient water at an acceptable level of quality. There are several areas of vulnerability as water travels to the customer. These areas include (1) the raw water source (surface or groundwater); (2) raw water canals and pipelines; (3) raw water reservoirs; (4) the treatment facilities; (5) connections to the distribution system pipes; (6) pump stations and valves; and (7) finished water tanks and reservoirs. Each of these system elements presents unique challenges to the water utility in safeguarding the water supply. These challenges include: • • • Physical disruption that prevents sufficient water flow at an acceptable pressure to all customers. Contamination of the water delivered to the customer by a chemical or biological agent such that the product is not safe to use or is not of an acceptable quality to the customer. Loss of confidence by customers in the ability of the water utility to deliver a safe and secure water supply.
Figure 3.3 : Major points of vulnerability in a water supply system Simulation models can be used in vulnerability studies to help a water utility understand how their system will respond to an accidental or purposeful physical or chemical event. This understanding can be used to identify the consequences of such events, to test solutions to minimize the
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impacts of the events, or to learn how to respond if such events occur. Models are representations of systems that are especially effective in examining the consequences of “what if” scenarios. Within the context of water system security, some examples of “what if” scenarios include the following (Walski, 2003): If an oil tank adjacent to a river ruptures and discharges to a river used downstream as a source of raw water, when should the utility close its water intake and for how long will they need to keep the intake closed? If a major main in the water system breaks, what happens to pressure throughout the distribution system and will there be sufficient flow and pressure to provide fire protection? If runoff contaminates a particular well, what customers would receive contaminated water and how quickly will the contaminant reach them? In the area of water system security, computer models have been used to examine three different time frames: • • • As a planning tool to look at what may happen in the future in order to assess the vulnerability of a system to different types of events and to plan how to respond if such an event occurs. As a realtime tool for use during an actual event to assist in formulating a response to the situation. As a tool for investigating a past event so as to understand what happened.
The characteristics of models used and the type of information that is available in these three time frames can vary significantly. A water distribution system model can be applied to a wide range of “what if” scenarios to determine the general vulnerability of the distribution system. For example, the model can be used to determine the effects of a major pipe break or the impacts of a purposeful or accidental contamination of the system. With this information in hand, a water utility is better equipped to develop an effective plan of action. A water distribution system model can be used to simulate flows and pressures within a distribution system, and the movement and transformation of a constituent after it is introduced into the distribution system. In order to simulate the movement of a contaminant in a distribution system, a hydraulic extendedperiod simulation (EPS) model of the system is needed (Rao, 1977). Water distribution system models have been proposed as part of a
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realtime or near realtime system to assist in many aspects of the operation of a water system including energy management, water quality management, and emergency operation (Male, 1990). The major obstacle in such use of water distribution system models is the requirement that the model must be calibrated for a wide range of conditions and is ready to apply quickly and easily in an extendedperiod simulation mode. Information on the current state of the system must be readily available to the model through direct ties to a SCADA system. In addition, the model must be set up in an automated mode so that operation is represented by a series of logical controls that reflect the existing operating procedures. The key to using a model as part of a realtime response lies in having the model ready to run. During an emergency, there is no time to construct a model. There is only time to make some minor adjustments to an existing model. 3.6 Using SCADA system for hydraulic modeling
SCADA systems enable an operator to remotely view realtime measurements, such as the level of water in a tank, and remotely initiate the operation of network elements such as pumps and valves. SCADA systems can be set up to sound alarms at the central host computer when a fault within a water supply system is identified. They can also be used to keep a historical record of the temporal behavior of various variables in the system such as tank and reservoir levels. Chapter 6 provides an indepth introduction to SCADA systems and their components. 3.7 Network optimization
Optimization, as it applies to water distribution system modeling, is the process of finding the best, or optimal, solution to a water distribution system problem. Examples of possible problems are the design of new piping or determination of the most efficient pumping schedule. The typical optimization problem consists of finding the maximum or minimum value of an objective function, subject to constraints (Brdys, 1994). Chapter 9 and 10 will be donated to discuss this topic and the optimization of the “Toulon Est” network.
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CHAPTER 4
4.
Pressurized Water Network Modeling and Simulation Softwares
4.1
Introduction
In the previous chapter we introduced the process of the water distribution systems modeling, simulation, calibration, and optimization of these systems. One perceived obviously that the realization of these fundamental tasks, which aim to improve the efficiency of the system and the service quality, is almost impossible  specially when it is about a rather complex system  to analyze the system and to carry out the calculations and to find the resolutions of the hydraulic equations in a traditional way, and we can not understand the behavior of the system and the weak points and find solutions and then choose the best one, this is before or after the design of the system, from where results the need of tools which are characterized by the efficiency, preciseness, speed and robustness and which facilitate the task for the designer, the engineer, the manager, or the operator of the system. Doubtless, the computer software packages supply such tools. Before the advent of computers, the analysis of even very simple distribution systems relied on an engineer’s experience and very crude theoretical models (Ulanicki, 2001). These models relied on gross assumptions plus laborious and timeconsuming calculations (WSS, 2002). Since the 1970’s there has been a trend towards the use of digital computers for network analysis. The availability of cheap processing power, the general trend towards more automation in the industry and integrated information technologies, means computer simulation can provide an efficient way of predicting a system behavior. But today, because of the multitude of the market software packages for modeling of water distribution systems, the question which arises here is that “Which software should I opt to resolve my problem?”. However, I find that it is convenient to summarize in this research work the main results of three interesting market studies that apprehend software packages concern the modeling. The first and second studies are a comparison between several software packages of the market, and the other
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study is a comparison between FINESSE software and other software packages. Knowledge: It is indeed necessary that I declare here that the first study is SCP property realized in November 2003 by Frank BESSEAT from Engineering DivisionSCP, the second one is prepared by CH2M HILLUSA in 1999, and the third one is a property of De Montfort University, UK Water Software Systems (WSS) – realized in August 2000. 4.2 4.2.1 Market study for water distribution modeling softwares Market study aims
For the DMU, this market study came about due to the forthcoming release of FINESSE Water Network Modeling Suite. The fundamental aim of this market study was to help WSS in providing input for the development a business and marketing plan for FINESSE. This research hopefully helps determine factors such as: • • • • • • FINESSE’s strengths FINESSE’s limitations Marketing strategy Pricing strategy Distribution methods Support and training
Most importantly this research provide suggestions on how WSS should approach the modeling tool market and identify where FINESSE fits in with the other water network modeling packages (WSS, 2000). From the SCP’s point of view, firstly, the general purpose of study is to create an exhaustive list of simulation and modeling softwares regarding administrative data, global references, new technology implementation and scope of technical functionalities developed by software companies (Besseat, 2003). Secondly, SCP, as an engineering and consulting company in water industry, will have a full softwares market comparison. This comparison is based on softwares evaluations and the result can be used to advise potential overseas clients according to their specific constraints. The market study focuses on comparison criteria. The aim is not to obtain a classification of all the softwares but to gather useful information that will be analyzed and compared to be used to choose a simulation and modeling softwares for a new project or to operate an existing water network.
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Finally, this report hopefully provides suggestions on how a Consultant or a Final Client should approach the Network Analysis Software (NAS) and identify which essential criteria must be focused on accordingly to their specific requirements. 4.2.2 Market studies tasks
Before moving into the main body of market study the first task was to learn the basic concepts of water network modeling and simulation and also the fundamentals of the FINESSE package. This was necessary to get an understanding of the relevant information needed for the comparison of the other modeling tools. The studies consisted of one main task along with three associated subtasks. Main Task: Identify and analyze competitor products The main task of the study was to identify products on the market. The main parameters used to select the products were: Availability of selected functionalities Medium or long term experienced products, Significant references around the world, Global representation. Subtasks aAnalyze competitor companies: Tying in with the above task, there was a need to gather corporate information on the developers of the competing softwares, such as turnover, profit, parent company, number of staff, etc. Information about the network modeling softwares market such as identifying whom the market leaders, market share, and other softwares sold. Analyze modeling/simulation features: This technical task focuses on the engine features, the main functionalities developed and the optional modules proposed. Links with SCADA, GIS and Customer Management System: Modern water production and distribution utilities require more systematic handling of system complexities and provision of more efficient guidelines for overall operations. The aim of this task is to analyze the efforts provided to develop integrated solutions with other main system of the network manager.
b
c
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4.3
Identifying and analyzing competitor products
The first stage of the market studies was to identify the other packages on the market. Using initial information from SCP  mainly from a market study supplied in 1997 to analyze the Water Colombo Network in Sri Lanka and secondly from the research supplied in the field of WaterCIME RDT project (WATERCIME, 1997), from De Monfort University (DMU, 2000) and from CH2M HILL “Water Distribution Hydraulic Model Selection” research, and also internet advanced research; a preliminary list of water network distribution modeling packages was drawn up. This initial list included: AQUIS EPAnet FINESSE GAnet H2Onet InfoWorks IRMA KYPIPE 4.3.1 Final product list LIQSS NETBASE PICCOLO StruMap SynerGEE Water WaterCAD
After some initial research it appeared that some of the names in the initial list were not as prevalent in the current modeling tool market as first expected. So then using primarily the Internet, more uptodate modeling packages were identified. A final list was then trimmed down to six products for the purposes of the comparison. This final list of products included a wide mixture of modeling tool types and origins. From highend American products such as WaterCAD, H2Onet and SynerGEE, to new European products such as AQUIS and InfoWorks and more established names such as PICCOLO. PORTEAU is water network simulation software developed by CEMAGREF (BordeauxFrance, 2002), that was not included in the mentioned market studies and I will introduce it in this chapter. 4.3.2 Sources of Information
The following sources have provided the main basis for gathering information: Knowledge within Water Software System: The basis of the initial information came from the different members of WSS, in
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particular all the information concerning FINESSE. Internet: Along with the internal WSS knowledge, Internet based information has proved to be one the most extensive and useful sources of information for the research. Most of the competitor developers provided fairly comprehensive details of their products on their respective websites. Company Literature: The second most useful source of data was literature sent by the developers. However some of brochure packs were sales orientated rather than technically orientated and but generally did not offer more detail than available on the web sites. Product information
4.3.3
The following summaries provide a brief overview of each product considered in the comparison. AQUIS A new modular based hydraulic simulation package with a very strong focus on its ability to work in realtime and online. AQUIS has been developed by the Danish Company Seven Technologies and is based around the technology of two established platforms — LICwater and WATNET. >> (http://www.7t.dk/aquis). H2Onet An AutoCAD based package consisting of a very comprehensive suite of tools. It has a strong emphasis on speed, ease of use, and also a firm focus on network design and rehabilitation offering modules such as Network designer and Advisor. >> (http://www.mpact.com/page/p_product/net/net_overview.htm) InfoWorks InfoWorks is Wallingford Software’s Windows based successor to Wesnet. But, notably InfoWorks hydraulic and quality simulation is still heavily based around the WesNet simulation engine. >> (http://www.wallingfordsoftware.com/products/infoworks/) PICCOLO An established name in the water network market, offering one the largest choice of optional modules of any of the products in the comparison, including water quality, costing, pipe sizing, transient analysis and more. SAFÉGE make strong emphasis about PICCOLO’s Realtime
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operation, its powerful user interface and its strong performance claiming “PICCOLO uses the most efficient method available for resolving problems in meshed networks”. >>(http://www.safege.fr/wwwsafegefr/english/dom/logiciel/reseaux/ piccolo/atouts.htm) SynerGEE Water SynerGEE Water is Stoner’s successor to their original Stoner Workstation Services. SynerGEE Water is based around the base SynerGEE product developed for gas and electric and of course water. Stoner makes the bold claim that “SynerGEE is the most advanced family of network modeling and management application modules commercially available”. Offered in modular format, SynerGEE has modules to allow linking to Customer Information Systems, SCADA linking, main isolation and model simplification. >> (http://www.advantica.biz) WaterCAD Another highend American developed software package that can be used in conjunction with AutoCAD or bought as a standalone windows program. Strong focus on ability to link to virtually any type of external sources e.g. any database, spreadsheet, GIS, SCADA, etc. Also stresses on ease of use and extensive data manipulation features. >> (http://www.haestad.com/software/watercad/) PORTEAU To improve the distribution of drinking water the CEMAGREF (Agricultural and Environmental Engineering Research Institute– Bordeaux– France) developed a software called PORTEAU, which allows to estimate the reliability of the drinking water distribution system and the respect of the water quality standards. PORTEAU software also allows to estimate the water pressure, its stagnation duration in the network, the origins of this water or the disinfectants evolution in the network, such as chlorine. PORTEAU thus constitutes modeling tools for the steady state behavior of pressurized meshed water supply and distribution networks. It represents a decisionmaking aid for the management of water supply or distribution networks (CEMAGREF, 2002). Several modules of calculation are available; each one allows the simulation of a particular use of the network. At present, the modules of calculation associated with this graphical environment are: • The module “Zomayet”: It allows to study, by an extendedperiod
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simulation (24 hours to 15 days), the hydraulic operation of a water distribution system and visualize the results on its schema. • The module “Opointe”: It allows simulating the operation of a drinking water distribution system during peakdemand period and visualizing the results on its schema. • The module “Quality”: it allows simulating the spatial and temporal evolutions of solution’s concentration through the network. This module takes into account the legitimate requirements of the subscribers who require today of the manager, in the absence of hydraulic problems, that the quality of water should be irreproachable. >> (http://porteau.CEMAGREF.fr/) 4.3.4 Omitted products
Several important names were also not in the comparison. Here is the explanation for few keymissing products. FINESSE and GAnet were omitted from the comparison list, as they are university research based products. Only commercial products were compared in the SCP and CH2M HILL market study reports. But GANet and FINESSE are mentioned in this report and summarized in this chapter as a showcase of the current research way. KYPIPE, LIQSS and NETBASE are standalone product used mainly by Consulting and Services companies for designing, simulating or modeling small networks quickly and efficiently. Other missing product that is well used by utilities is StruMap. It’s omitted from the final comparison list because of a not clear commercial and support policy from MVM Consultants Company. GANet  Exeter University/Optimal Solutions Another key missing product from the list was GAnet; the simulation product based on the use of Genetic Algorithms developed by Exeter University and commercially supported by Ewan Associates (the joint venture is known as Optimal Solutions). The Optimal Solutions setup is of great interest to WSS simply because it’s the only other organization that operates in a reasonably similar fashion to WSS; i.e. research based with a commercial partnership. Optimal Solutions appears to be the result of the joining of skills from Exeter Universities and Ewan Associates – a water industry consultancy firm. Optimal Solutions is an operating division of Ewan Associates, who appear to be responsible for all the commercial aspects of GAnet. GAcal Optimal Solutions has produced a package called GAcal, which links
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to STL’s StruMap GIS with its embedded HARP hydraulic solver. GAcal’s, sibling GAnet, has already proved to be a highly effective tool for planning the optimal strengthening, rehabilitation and operation of water networks. GAcal, which may be applied by modelers who do not have detailed GA background knowledge, is now available. “As well as removing most of the routine and tedious aspects of the job, GAcal will generally achieve better fits to the data and will adopt a consistent approach that is more likely to highlight real inconsistencies and problems”. FINESSE FINESSE is a well known product from SCP. FINESSE was developed by Water Software Systems WSS – UK. >> (http://www.eng.dmu.ac.uk/wssys/Software.htm) StruMap Modeling StruMap Modeling is Geodesys’s hydraulic modeling version of its StruMap GIS package, using an EPANET based simulation engine integrated with the GIS. StruMap Modeling offers a surprisingly comprehensive range of modeling features including water quality, leakage assessment, etc. Geodesys firstly developed StruMap. Now the product is sold by MVM Consultants plc. But, according to the web site, it seems that the product is maintained but will probably not be developed more. Hence StruMap was omitted from the comparison. >> (www.geodesys.co.uk) EPANET One of the key names  EPANET was omitted from the comparison, as it is a freeware product. EPANET is US Environmental Protection Agency software well known by their hydraulic community. As a freeware, there is no formal support or services offered for EPANET. It’s important to notice that most of the products selected in this report are based on the EPANET Engine. >> (http://www.epa.gov/ORD/NRMRL/wswrd/epanet.html) NETBASE Crowder and Co Ltd is an established firm of consulting engineers and software developers, founded in 1985 – UK. The company offers flexible and competitive services to developers, contractors, architects, water utilities, local authorities and property services companies. Crowder and Co developed NETBASE as an integrated management system for water distribution and wastewater drainage networks. It provides the tools
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to monitor performance in many different ways, to meet regulatory requirements, to plan, develop and operate networks to suit the particular strategies of the end user. NETBASE has been developed and applied by Crowder and Co analysts and engineers, and by major water utilities for more than 10 years. It fulfils a simple but powerful concept of a single, integrated database and software suite for the management of distribution and drainage systems. Its interfaces with corporate data and with proprietary applications make it both dynamic and flexible. A team of programmers and analysts whose skills encompass serverdatabase technology, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), client server systems and networks carries out its development and support. >>(http://www.crowderconsult.co.uk/lang/en/netbase/content_pages/ database.htm) KYPIPE KYPIPE is a USA product sold by LLC Software Center in Lexington, KY. KYPIPE offers a lot functionalities found in product compared in this reports. There is also a SCADA interface providing some very advanced capabilities for reviewing and modifying settings, which affect the operation of the system, and launching an analysis using these settings. The current version of KYPIPE is the 2000 version. LLC software develops also Gas2000, Surge2000, Steam2000 and Goflow2000. KYPIPE LCC and MWH software have a string partnership. Here is a quote from LLC websites describing this partnership: “Whereas Surge2000 and H2O SURGE provide identical analysis capabilities (they actually utilize the same binaries) these programs are targeted at different users. The programs are offered at a different price point, have different support arrangements, and have different operational requirements. Partnering with MWH Soft allows KYPIPE LLC to bring our software to a market segment that we would not ordinarily reach”. >> (http://www.kypipe.com) LIQSS A mention has to be made about LIQSS software which is one of the four nongraphical steadystate and transient network analysis simulators developed by Dr. Michael A. Stoner who launched Stoner Associates in seventies. A lot of LIQSS licences still exist all around the world. But, now the SynerGEE water product from Advantica will be the only one commercialize. IRMARAMI “House” software developed by SCPFrance. This program includes
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some number of additional features developed for the proper necessities of the SCP. This program is in FORTRAN and uses the SCP graphic library (Bonnadier, 2000). 4.3.5 Developer information
The developers of the products in the comparison varied quite noticeably in their structure, business intention’s and focuses. The following passage shows that some the companies involved are research and consultancy firms who have software divisions, or firms who specifically provide software and solutions to the utilities markets. There are also several exceptions to this rule in particular Ewan Associates, Geodesys and Haestad Methods. Advantica – USA – SynerGEE Water Stoner Associates provide a very wide range of services and software solutions to the natural gas, electric, water, and petroleum industries. They have three locations in the US, one in the UK  Loughborough  and one in Australia – Sydney. Haestad Methods – USA – WaterCAD Haestad Methods is quite unique in that its key area of work is in developing software, literature and courses related specifically to water management. Their software products include WaterCAD, SewerCAD, StormCAD, WaterGEMS, Darwin Calibrator and Designer, LoadBuilder, Skelebrator, WaterSAfe, Hammer, HECPack, PondPack, CulvertMaster and FlowMaster. The other key area of Haestad is the holding of seminars and courses related to general water management issues and more specifically on the use of their software products (like a training in Dubai in February 2004 including a free modeling social part). Montgomery Watson Software (MWSoft) – USA – H2ONet MWSoft are a division of Montgomery Watson, who appear to be a very large Worldwide services/consultancy/research group, in a similar mould to that of WRc in the UK. However Montgomery Watson USA cover a much broader area of work including environmental engineering, applied research, construction and construction management, financing, government relations and IT, where MWSoft is just one part. MWSoft also has an IT solutions division and a specialist CAD group. MWSoft appears to be specifically setup for the development of water network modeling products such as H2Onet. MWSoft has offices all around the world but only US offices are detailed on the website.
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SAFÉGE – France – PICCOLO SAFÉGE is another large environment consulting and engineering practice specializing in the following areas: Water Supply Environment Public Utilities Management Regional Development They also develop a wide range of applications including network modeling, network draught and GIS tools. Notably, SAFÉGE also has office locations on all five continents. Seven Technologies – Denmark – AQUIS Seven Technologies headquarter is located in Denmark. Recently, Energy Solutions was representing the UK arm of Seven Technologies, promoting and supporting AQUIS in the UK as they no longer develop their own water network modeling tool (LICWater). But actually, Seven Technologies has its own office in UK – Northallerton. The Third representation of Seven Technologies is in Malaysia. Wallingford Software – UK – InfoWorks The Wallingford group appears to be a relatively large organization that provides a range of services and products specifically for the water industry. Wallingford group claims to be specialists in consultancy, research and software for the water environment. It is split into two segments, HR Wallingford which is the research and consultancy arm and Wallingford Software which produce InfoWorks and is responsible for developing and supporting other softwares for the water and sewage industry. There are five Wallingford Software representations in the world, but none in Africa or Middle East. CEMAGREF – Bordeaux – France – Porteau CEMAGREF is a public research institute whose work focuses on sustainable development in nonurban areas. It contributes to the conservation and acceptable management of land and water systems, the prevention of associated risks and the development of sustainable economic activity. CEMAGREF has been developed common scientific methods on geographical information, modeling, and computing sciences. For many years, CEMAGREF has been working in partnership with domestic water supply operators to improve their water supply system management. A suite of computer programs under the name PORTEAU has been written to model piped water supply system operation and performance. The research
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was done jointly with the postgraduate school of mathematics and information technology at the University of Bordeaux and the postgraduate school of engineering science at the Louis Pasteur University in Strasbourg. 4.3.6 Criteria
A list of criteria was developed to compare the competitors. These criteria have a strong marketing focus as well as focusing on the general technical aspects of the software. The method for developing the criteria was based around drawing up a large list of all the different features and functionality of all the different packages, and then analyzing where overlaps occurred, and trying to identify commonly occurring features and functions. The development of the criteria was an ongoing process with numerous changes being made, even up until the completion of all the tables. After much analysis, seven major criteria were identified, each with their own set of subcriteria. These seven criteria are as follows: ABCDEFGGeneral software information Hydraulic simulation Water quality simulation Additional analysis features Data exchange tools External system linking User interface features
This following section explains the seven criteria and their respective subcriteria in more detail. A. General software information
Criteria Summary: The first set of criteria looked at all the significant nontechnical information about the products. It is perhaps the most important table for identifying a business strategy as this table gives an idea on how each of the competitors is marketed, distributed, and supported. Note: Some questions have a simple Yes/No answer, whilst others required a descriptive input. This applies throughout the entire criteria. A.1 Product summary: A brief description about what the product is and how it is aimed at the market. A.2. Platform: The operating system(s) which product is designed to run
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on e.g. Windows, UNIX, etc. A.3. Modular configuration: Indicates if the product is sold in modules; i.e. if the product is sold as a standard unit with optional modules available at extra cost. A.4. Basic simulation functions: Indicates which of the most common simulation functions are available; i.e. if the product is sold as a standard unit (hydraulic simulation) with optional basic functions available (water quality simulation and surge simulation). A.5 Optional modules: The additional modules/functionality that can be added to the standard configuration at extra cost. A.6 Additional 3rd party software: Additional softwares required to operate the product. A.7. Recommended specifications: The developer’s recommended hardware specification(s) for running their software. A.8 Pricing scheme: The method by which the company prices their software, typically by number of links, or number of licences (or combination). Also note that optional modules affect the pricing structure. A.9 Distribution media: The format the product is delivered in e.g. CD, Diskettes or Internet Download. A.10 Customer support: Type of user support offered by company and the format for support such as phone, fax or email. A.11 Support costs: The cost passed on to the customer for user support (support licences). A.12 Training courses: Training courses available to end users of the product. B. Hydraulic simulation
Criteria summary: The technical details of the two main simulation processes provided by the product – the technical details of hydraulic simulation, and water quality simulation. B.1 Simulation engine: The background simulation process being used to simulate hydraulic models (for example: EPANET). B.2 Steady state simulation: Indicates if product can perform steady state (instantaneous) simulation. B.3 Extended period simulation (EPS): Indicates if the product can perform extended period simulation. B.4 Offline analysis: Indicates if product can perform offline analysis. B.5 Online analysis: Indicates the ability to perform hydraulic analysis using online data from SCADA systems. B.6 Realtime analysis: Indicates the ability to perform hydraulic analysis in realtime using data from SCADA systems. B.7 Max network size: An indication of the maximum network size that
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hydraulic simulation can be executed. B.8 Calculation speed: The Speed taken to calculate a typical network (if available). B.9 EPS control: Describes the type of control offered to the user during EPS simulation, for example pausing, stopping, resuming, etc. C. Water quality simulation
Criteria summary: This criterion looks at the technical details of water quality simulation offered by the products. C.1 Offered: Indicates if product offers water quality simulation in the first place, and whether it is an optional module or standard. C.2 Simulation engine: The background simulation process being used to simulate water quality models for example EPANET (Typically the same engine as for hydraulic simulation). C.3 Steady state simulation: Indicates if the product can perform steady state (instantaneous) water quality simulation. C.4 Extended period simulation: Indicates if the product can perform dynamic water quality simulation C.5 Conservative substance propagation: States if the water quality simulation can analyze the movement of conservative substances such as Nitrates, Phosphates or Fluoride through the network. C.6 Reactive substance propagation: States if the water quality simulation can analyze the movement of reactive substances such as Chlorine, through the network. C.7 Water age calculation: Indicates if the water quality simulation can calculate the age of water C.8 Source tracing: Indicates the ability to identify origins of water in the system. C.9 Sediment analysis: States if the water quality simulation can analyze the movement of sediment material through network. C.10 Bacterial analysis: Indicates the ability to analyze and track of the growth of bacteria in the system. C.11 Substance conversion analysis: Indicates if the water quality simulation allows for the conversion of substances from one state to another. D. Additional analysis features
Criteria summary: This criterion is the one of the largest of the set. It highlights the additional analysis features and applications offered by the software on top of the standard hydraulic (and quality) simulation. This
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includes functions such as Calibration, Scheduling, Fire Flow analysis, etc. It also indicates if these extra features are provided as standard or as optional module. D.1 Model calibration: Indicates if the product offers a model calibration feature and whether it is an optional module or offered as standard. Details: Any further information on calibration such as the algorithms and methods used. Automatic calibration: Indicates if the calibration is performed automatically rather than manually. Offline/online: If calibration can be performed online or offline or both. D.2 Scheduling (Optimization): Indicates if product offers a pumpscheduling optimization feature. D.3 Demand prediction: Indicates if the product offers a demand prediction (future load forecasting) feature. D.4 Cost analysis: (Yes/No) indicates if the product offers ability to calculate operating costs. Details: Further information on the costs that can be analyzed and the tariffs that can be incorporated. D.5 Pipe isolation analysis (shut off analysis): Indicates if the product can analyze the effects of shutting off main pipes/nodes; i.e. identify which valves to close and parts of the network will be affected. D.6 Model simplification / skeletonization: Indicates if the product offers a proper model simplification or model skeletonization feature. Details: Highlights if the method used in model simplification such as skeletonization, is a mathematical procedure, and any further information provided by the developer about the feature. D.7 Model extracting and merge: Indicates if product can perform sub model management; i.e. the ability to extract model elements and merge them. This feature is very closely related to simplification/skeletonization. D.8 Fire/emergency analysis: Indicates if the product offers analysis of fire/emergency scenarios; i.e. calculates necessary available pressure at different parts of the network. D.9 Leakage analysis: States if the product has a leakage analysis function. D.10 Transient/surge analysis: States if the product can analyze surges events /transient phenomena within the distribution network D.11 Network design optimization: Indicates if the product offers a facility to determine design alternatives for the network distribution system based on user criteria. D.12 Pipe Sizing Analysis: Indicates if the product can calculate optimal pipe diameter for given design and demand criteria. D.13 Network reliability/failure analysis: Indicates if the product has a
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feature that can analyze the effects of pipe or component failure on a network; i.e. identify which parts of the network affected and possibly identifies customers affected D.14 Flushing analysis: This shows if the product can calculate flushing schedules, to show which hydrants to open, and in what order so that polluting material can be removed from the network. D.15 Steady state pressure analysis: Indicates if the product can perform steady state pressure analysis within a network. Note: Simplification and Skeletonization: A special note must be made about model simplification and Skeletonization and the importance of being able to make a distinction between the two. This was the hardest part of the criteria simply because it was not easy to tell what each developer is claiming. The following rule was used: if the product claims to be able to reduce a hydraulic model and then reallocate demand to other nodes in the model, it was classed as simplification. Whereas skeletonization is understood to be where the product simply trims or removes unwanted nodes such dead end and small pipes – and then presumably a loss of accuracy in the model. E. Data exchange tools
Criteria summary: The table focuses on the product’s ability to exchange information with databases, spreadsheets and windows programs, etc. It also highlights the file formats for importing and exporting; network model data input and the import of CAD drawings. E.1 External database linking: Indicates if product can link to external databases, and if it the feature is standard or optional. E.2 Bidirectional link: Indicates if the product has a bidirectional link with the external database(s); i.e. if the external database is updated automatically if the simulation model is changed. E.3 Method/details: method used to connect to databases. E.4 Database’s supported: A list of the database(s) the product claims to be able to link to. Method: The method used to link to the external databases e.g. ODBC, translator programs, command language, etc. E.5 GIS linking: Indicates if product can link to external GIS and if it is a GIS based product. E.6 GIS systems/formats supported: A list of GIS format the product claims to be able to link to. E.7 Spreadsheet linking: Indicates if product can link to external
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spreadsheet packages, and if it the feature is standard or optional. E.8 Spreadsheets supported: A list of the spreadsheet package(s) the product claims to be able to link to. E.9 Data exchange with Windows programs: Highlights if the product can exchange data with a variety of other windows based programs. Programs supported: A list of the windows program(s) the product claims to be able to exchange data with, such as EPANET, Stoner, WATNET, etc. E.10 Data import file format(s): File format(s) that the modeling tool is capable of importing directly, for example ASCII, CSV. E.11 Data export file format: The export file format(s) the product can generate. E.12 CAD drawing conversion: Indicates if the product can directly import CAD files and convert them into network models/data. Supported CAD formats: The CAD formats supported for the above process. F. SCADA system linking
Criterion summary: This table looks at the ability to link with external systems in particular telemetry systems (SCADA). F.1 SCADA linking: Indicates if product can link to SCADA system(s) and if the feature is standard or optional. F.2 SCADA systems supported: Brief description of the SCADA systems/formats claimed to be supported by the product. Method: The file format/method used to by the product to collect SCADA data. F.3 Online SCADA link: Indicates if the product can capture online data from SCADA (see notes below). F.4 Realtime SCADA link: Indicates if the product can capture data from SCADA in real time (See notes below). F.5 Automatic SCADA data transfer: (Yes/No) indicates if the product claims to automatically transfer SCADA data into the simulation model database. F.6 Logging equipment support: Indicates the ability to link to logging equipment. SCADA online and realtime linking Although seven out of the eight tools in the comparison claim to link to SCADA systems a clear distinction needs to be made between a products ability to link with SCADA systems in either online and realtime modes.
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Online linking Online linking refers to the product’s ability to capture historical recorded data from SCADA that has been collected over a certain period of time e.g. 24 hours or a week. The presumption can be made that any tool that has SCADA linking can perform online collection of data as standard as this is the basic function necessary of a SCADA connection. • Realtime linking
•
Realtime linking is different as this refers to the collection of the most recently measured values from SCADA with a delay of few minutes (typically between 515 minutes). The term realtime is perhaps a little misleading in water network modeling terms, as it is not instantaneous as it first implies. The rule used for the assessment is that any product is capable of obtaining recently measured values is capable of realtime SCADA linking. G. User interface tools Criteria summary: The final set of criteria highlights the key features offered in the user interface. G.1 Scenario management: Indicates if the product offers scenario management tools that helps the user to manipulate, reuse and save scenarios. G.2 EPS animation: Indicates if the product offers an animation feature that helps the user to visualize dynamic simulation. G.3 User definable units: Indicates if the product allows the user to create their own new units or modify existing predefined units. G.4 Color coding: Indicates if user interface offers color coding of model attributes Attributes: The attributes the user can choose for colorcoding. G.5 Contour maps: Highlights if the product can display contour maps that graphically display findings Attributes: The attributes the user can choose for displaying contours. G.6 Display background maps: Indicates if the product can display background image maps below the network schematic such as those from CAD, GIS or image files. File formats: The file formats supported for displaying background maps G.7 Zooming: Indicates if the product offers the basic feature of zooming. G.8 Panning: indicates if the product offers the basic feature of panning
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(scrolling). G.9 Multiple windows: Indicates if the product offers the feature of multiple window displays. 4.4 General conclusions
Choice of competitors A question may be raised about the choice of competitors as several of them are aimed at the top end of the market. Although the choice of products may not be ideal, now that the criteria list has been created it would be quite straightforward to add other products to the list. Application or actual function? Because of wording used by the developers, it made it difficult to decipher if a feature is a specifically designed application or something that can be done by the user by combining various options. For example does a calibration feature mean an estimation procedure, or an option to facilitate “trial and error” calibration?. Marketing focus Some of the information sources provided by the companies was quite marketing orientated, focusing on the benefits rather than actual details of operation. For example product X “can help to reduce this”, or “can help to improve that”, etc. It appears that marketing aimed at higher level, not engineers who use software. The only true exception was SAFÉGE who made the effort to provide more technically orientated information such maximum network size and speed of calculation exception. Web based information The most valuable source of information for the project has been the use of the internet. Two developers clearly stated that they no longer produce traditional marketing literature as the web allows the putout as much information and keep it updated more regularly. Presumably this is also cheaper than producing glossy literature on a regular basis. US products The two main American based softwares – H2Onet and WaterCAD appear to offer very comprehensive functionality. In Table 4.1 some of the softwares mentioned here above and their main features are summarized:
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Table 4.1 : General software information and features
WaterCAD SynerGEE Infoworks FINESSE Porteau Y N Y N Y Y Y N Y N N N N N N N N N H2Onet EPAnet Y Y Y N Y Y Y N Y N N N N N N N N N AQUIS Piccolo Y N Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y Y N
Software Platform Windows Platform Unix Water Quality 3rd Party Software Steady State Simulation Extended Period Simulation (EPS) Offline Analysis Online Analysis Large Size Network Model Calibration Scheduling (Optimization Demand Prediction Model Simplification Leakage Analysis Transient/Surge Analysis Pipe Sizing Analysis SCADA linking Network design optimisation
Y N Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N
Y N Y Y Y Y Y ? Y Y Y N Y N N N Y Y
Y N Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N N N N Y N
Y N Y N Y Y Y Y Y N N N Y N N N Y N
Y N Y Y Y Y Y ? Y Y N N Y N N N Y N
Y N N Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N N Y N
Finally, the interested reader can refer to the original market studies for further information and details. 4.5 Water distribution softwares at the SCP networks simulation and modeling
As it was previously mentioned in Chapter 2, SCP has three modeling and simulation softwares for pipe networks that it already used but of which two are today not really installed in an operational way: PICCOLO We had said that this software was never used in SCP to realize hydraulic simulation studies on any of its networks. For more details about this software and its tools and functionalities please refer to the market Studies presented in this chapter. FINESSE Developed by De Montfort UniversityUK. This software is the modeling tools that will be used in this research work and it will be describe in details in the next section.
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IRMA RAMI “House” softwares developed by SCPFrance. A brief description of this software is presented in the paragraphs hereafter. This program, property of the SCP, was the object of numerous evolutions in the course of years to answer the new necessities of the different users as well designers as administrators of networks. This software simulates the behavior of pressurized supply networks. It calculates head at nodes and flows in pipes based on a description of the network geometry, pipes, equipment and water demands. This software is well adapted to study irrigation and distribution networks, or more or less complex networks grouping several uses of water (irrigation, industrial, drinking water, etc.). It can be used for design (sizing of pipe diameters, tanks and other equipment) or for operation management and diagnosis of existing networks (minimum pressures, infrastructure capacities, saturation level, possible additional flows at specific points). This program is written in FORTRAN and uses the SCP graphic library. In the general case, the flows circulating in sections are calculated by Clément’s law. Besides, the program includes some number of additional features developed for the proper necessities of the SCP. There are different “bridges” between IRMA and the tools that constitute its immediate environment in the SCP. An automatism of call of RAMI program of optimal sizing of new branched connected with a general infrastructure. This function allows calculating directly the diameters of new branches. It is enough to describe the new branch(s) in the database file without clarifying the diameters. The calculations of optimization will be launched automatically and the database file updated with the diameters resulting from calculations of RAMI. In the other direction, an interface between RAMI program (calculation of branched networks) and the IRMA program which allows using the data of RAMI’s files for the modeling of SCP networks containing loops. Also, a “bridges” were established between IRMA and the SCP network database to create and to update models of IRMA from valid data stored in the database. An interface is also available to create data files for FINESSE software (Bonnadier, 2000). 4.6 FINESSE (WSS, 2002)
FINESSE « Fully Integrated Network Editing, Simulation, and Scheduling Environment », the advanced modeling software from Water Software Systems, is an online operational modeling environment, which seamlessly integrates waterrelated software components with a database
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and graphical user interface. FINESSE is presented here in details because it will be used in this thesis. This software is intended for water engineering and operators. An engineer may need to use the full range of facilities but infrequently; while an operator may only be required to follow a predefined scenario to schedule pump and valve controls (WSS, 2002). Complementary modeling functions are integrated to solve operational and design problems. FINESSE has four main modeling functions: hydraulic simulation, demand prediction, operational scheduling, and model simplification. These functions share data through a common database. They share a Microsoft Windows user interface. They also share data processing and communications functions to interface and exchange data with other systems, including Supervisory Control, Automation and Data Acquisition systems for online applications. The overall software architecture and main functions are shown in Figure 4.1. The architecture was first published in 1998. Since then more modeling functions have been added, the software has been converted to Microsoft Windows operating systems and experience has been gained from further case studies. Some of the functions are based on software products, which have been used by industry for some time and others are the result of recent research. The modeling functions are described in the following subsections.
Microsoft Windows Interface
Model Data Files
Model Builder
Network Simulator
Demand Predictor
Network Scheduler
Model Simplifier
SCADA Interface
SCADA
GINAS
GIDAP
CONOPT
Modeling Database Figure 4.1 : FINESSE architecture a) Network simulation This provides steady state hydraulic simulation, and extendedperiod simulation (e.g. over a 24 hours horizon). It calculates timeprofiles of flows, velocities, headloss, pressures and heads, reservoir levels, reservoir inflows and outflows and operating costs. The input data include network topology and component parameters, water demands and control variables.
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The calculation engine is a third party software called GINAS “Graphical and Interactive program for Network Analysis and Simulation” for water distribution system, which since the 1980s, has been applied by many water companies to many networks. It is also possible to integrate other simulation engines if needed. b) Online network simulation This is a special configuration of the network simulation function for online application. It performs steady state hydraulic simulation using the most recently measured state of the network as the initial condition. The Network Simulator is configured to automatically acquire data including reservoir levels, flows and pressures from a SCADA system. It then performs a simulation over a predefined time horizon. c) Network scheduling Pumps, valves and water works outputs are scheduled to minimize the total water production and distribution costs, typically over a time horizon of one or more days. The schedules conform to practical operating requirements defined by constraints on variables such as pressures, reservoir levels, flows, etc. Nonlinear hydraulic models are used to calculate least cost schedules, even for large networks. Such models are accurate over wide ranges of operating conditions, which is particularly important in the analysis of operating constraints. The scheduler can use network simulation models directly. The FINESSE Pump Scheduler will later be presented in detail in Chapter 9 of this thesis. d) Demand prediction Water demand patterns and volumes are predicted from historical flow time series. Typically, 6 weeks of historical data are required to setup the prediction model, which is based on categorization of demand patterns and a triple exponential smoothing algorithm. Thereafter, the software predicts future patterns of demand (e.g. for 1 to 7 days at 15 minute intervals) from recently acquired time series. FINESSE can be configured to acquire data online for a number of zones and then predict demands patterns for each of them. Alternatively, it can be used to analyze historical flow time series offline. The prediction software was first used in the 1980s, and has been applied successfully to a number of networks. WSS has also applied a number of other methods to water demand and leakage prediction, including Box Jenkins methods and artificial neural networks. FINESSE Demand Prediction will later be presented in detail in Chapter 8 of this thesis.
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e) Model simplification The model simplifier automatically calculates simplified models directly from detailed ones. The simplified models contain all key components and critical pressure nodes chosen by the user. The results are typically accurate to within 2% of the original models for comparable quantities. Simplified models can be used directly in either simulation or optimization and they can be recalculated from the detailed models at any time and for any given reason, such as if there are any changes to the network. The simplifier is based on a Gaussian elimination procedure. f) Pressure control This is a tool to calculate optimal pressure profiles directly from simulation models of a network. The profiles are calculated to minimize leakage whilst maintaining specified head constraints at each node of the network. The pressure control module can be applied to large pressure management areas of any configuration. FINESSE  general features  Model data: model data are stored in a single database and are shared seamlessly between the modeling functions. Models can be built and edited interactively using FINESSE model building features. The network schematic is created by “drag and drop” from a palette of standard model components.
 User interface: FINESSE has a comprehensive windows user
interface based on a schematic of the network.  Software integration: FINESSE is developed in the Boorland C++ Builder environment, which supports direct access to all major database management systems through ODBC, COM, etc, and the internet through TCP/IP. Data can be exchanged with other information systems to meet specific water company requirements. Tried and tested modeling packages are integrated within FINESSE including GINAS and GAMS / CONOPT. Other computational modules can be added if required. WSS has the expertise to write interface to various computational engines.  SCADA gateway: provides an interface to SCADA systems for online applications. The user specifies the data servers and the mnemonics for the online variables in a simple lookup table. The table also maps the variables to model parameters. FINESSE can also be interfaced to other SCADA and telemetry systems either through CIMVIEW or directly.
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 Model import: imports data files of other modeling packages and automatically builds the FINESSE database. So far import options for GINAS, EPANET and WATNET have been implemented. These files have also been used as an intermediate interface with GIS systems that export these formats. Other import formats will be added if required.  Model dimensions and calculation performance: FINESSE currently has a maximum model size of 10,000 nodes but the dimensions may be increased if required. Calculation times depend on the type of application, model dimensions, model timestep and a number of other model features.  Hardware requirements: Most standard PCs running Windows 95+ or NT will be adequate. A minimum of 128MB RAM is recommended. Primary FINESSE drawbacks It was felt that the biggest differences between FINESSE and the other softwares lied in these following areas: • • Water quality : FINESSE’s biggest omission appears to be its lack of water quality simulation that is offered by all competitor products in this comparison. GIS linking : This was another feature that was found on all products. No GIS linking means FINESSE is unable to extract and import network data from GIS systems or display GIS background maps. Data exchange tools : Compared with some of the other products FINESSE has quite limited exchange of data with other standard databases such as Access and Oracle. It also lacks the ability to import and convert CAD drawings. Overall FINESSE lacks the degree of “openness” shown by some of the packages here, in particular WaterCAD. Model data import : Another aspect of FINESSE’s lack of openness is its inability to directly import models/data from other modeling package. This could be a major issue for users of existing packages wishing to migrate onto FINESSE. True realtime hydraulic simulation : Another important feature missing from FINESSE is the ability to perform realtime hydraulic simulation. Several of the competitors offered the ability to perform true realtime analysis using live SCADA data rather than use captured historical online data as found in FINESSE.
•
•
•
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•
•
Limited node capacity : FINESSE may also suffer from its limited maximum network size capability. This was highlighted by PICCOLO that claimed to be able to model up 65,000 node models. Main isolation : FINESSE does not offer the user with the specific facility to analyze the effects the closure of a main pipe/node. This was an unexpectedly common feature offered by three other products – all as optional modules. Secondary FINESSE drawbacks
Other less significant (but still useful) features lacking in FINESSE but are relatively common in the other packages included: • • • • • • Linking to customer, billing and postcode information Scenario Management User Command Language Contour Maps Background maps Animation FINESSE STRONG POINTS • Demand prediction : FINESSE was one of only two products in the comparison that offered a demand prediction feature. The other – AQUIS, gave very little information about its “load forecasting” feature, and very little known about how it works or its accuracy. True model simplification : FINESSE offers true model simplification with a known level of high model reduction accuracy. This is a strong point because the others do not state the accuracy lost when reducing hydraulic models. More importantly it is not a skeletonization process that simply trims excessive unwanted pipes. Scheduling : Although offered by several other packages, FINESSE offers a known high level of accuracy with its scheduling feature. Module integration : FINESSE offers a high level of integration between all its “modules”. Network design (drag and drop) : Offered as standard. Complex tariffs : The assessment on FINESSE carried out by South Staffordshire Water CompanyUK found that FINESSE
•
• • • •
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•
• •
•
has ability to deal with complex tariffs. Use of complete hydraulic model for scheduling : Again as stated by Jay Mistry at South Staffordshire Water Company, FINESSE has the ability to incorporate the complete hydraulic model, important for accurate scheduling. Sevenday extended period simulation : FINESSE offers a seven day simulation period which appears to be longer than most. Pressure control feature in future : FINESSE has the potential feature in future of steadystate pressure control analysis, which would appears to be unique, however as we have seen PICCOLO and AQUIS already provide transient analysis of networks. Ease of use. Figure 4.2 : FINESSE interface
Toulon Est network model
4.7
EPANET Software
I will also briefly introduce EPANET software because it will be used later to perform some calibration work. EPANET is a freeware computer program that performs extended period simulation of hydraulic and water quality behavior within pressurized pipe networks. EPANET tracks the flow of water in each pipe, the pressure at each node, the height
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of water in each tank, and the concentration of a chemical species throughout the network during a simulation period comprised of multiple timesteps. In addition to chemical species, water age and source tracing can also be simulated. Running under Windows, EPANET provides an integrated environment for editing network input data, running hydraulic and water quality simulations, and viewing the results in a variety of formats. These include colorcoded network maps, data tables, time series graphs, and contour plots. EPANET contains a stateoftheart hydraulic analysis engine that includes the following capabilities (Rossman, 2000): Placing no limit on the size of the network that can be analyzed. Computing friction headloss using the HazenWilliams, DarcyWeisbach, or ChezyManning formulas. Including minor headloss for bends, fittings, etc. Modeling constant or variable speed pumps. Computing pumping energy and cost. Modeling various types of valves including shutoff, check, pressure regulating, and flow control valves. Allowing storage tanks to have any shape (i.e. diameter can vary with height). Considering multiple demand categories at nodes, each with its own pattern of time variation. Modeling pressuredependent flow issuing from emitters (sprinkler heads) Can base system operation on both simple tank level or timer controls and on complex rulebased controls. In addition to hydraulic modeling, EPANET provides other water quality modeling capabilities (Rossman, 2000). The method used in EPANET to solve the flow continuity and headloss equations that characterize the hydraulic state of the pipe network at a given point in time can be termed a hybrid nodeloop approach which will be introduced in the next chapter.
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CHAPTER 5
5.
Methods for Solving Water Pipe Networks Problem
5.1
Introduction
An important element in the examination of many physical systems is the ability to formulate and solve a variety of mathematical models. Water networks are large scale and nonlinear systems (Chenoweth, 1974). The operational control of such system has posed difficulties in the past to the human operator that had to take the right decisions, such as pumping more water or closing a valve, within a short period of time and quite frequently in the absence of reliable measurement information such as pressure and flow values. Computer simulations of such systems have alleviated these difficulties. They allowed “whatif” scenarios to be run by the manager or operator, giving him the possibility to know in advance the operational problems that can arise in the reallife networks due to malfunctions of valves or burst in pipes. Industry and academia have made a significant investment in the research and development of computer algorithms for the design, modeling and control of water distribution (AWWA, 1987). The industrial use of many of these algorithms is commonplace but there are no standards for their evaluation. Numerical algorithms are complex software procedures used to solve systems of equations. Owing to their complexity, it is difficult to compare different algorithms directly, or to verify that they provide correct results. Today, fast computers and efficient computational algorithms make both large and small system modeling feasible. Water distribution software using sparse matrix algorithms can solve these large systems with reasonable runtimes compared to a few years ago, when such analyses were impractical. One element to be considered when selecting a hydraulic model is that computer programs differ in their mathematical formulations (Haestad Methods, 1997).
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5.2
Conceptual model of a water network
A conceptual model of a water network can be presented as an inputoutput system in Figure 5.1 (Rance, 2002). Control Schedules are pump, valve and source schedules. Demands are node outflows representing water consumption. Initial Conditions are the initial reservoir levels. Output comprises heads at nodes, flows in elements, and operating costs. Water network mathematical model is the set of mathematical equations modeling the behavior of the physical system. Connections between components are described by topology, which for example can be represented by a nodebranch incidence matrix. It is useful to distinguish between “basic two terminal components” with regular characteristics and “complex components” with local control loops that potentially have irregular (nonmonotonic, nonsmooth) characteristics. The two terminal components are described by an equation relating component flow and the headloss. For the complex components the origin and destination heads may appear explicitly as separate variables. Basic components are reservoirs, pipes, valves, and pumps. Complex components with local control loops are control elements such as pressure reducing valves, pressure sustaining valves, pressure control pumps.
Control Schedules Demand Initial Conditions
Water Network Mathematical Model
Output Pressures Flows Costs
Figure 5.1 : Conceptual model Water networks often have control loops in order to achieve the desired behavior of the network. The control loops can be local, e.g. around pressure reducing valves (PRVs) or global, e.g. a pump controlled by a reservoir level. In the first case the local control loop can be masked and the component together with the control loop can be represented as a complex component. These control loops can not be included within a component characteristic and have to be considered as a separate part of the model. It is important to understand the behavior of the basic network (basic components) before considering control loops. In a computer implementation, a water network model is represented by a set of network data (values of parameters) and a set of equations (physical operation of the model).
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5.3
Fundamental mathematical model
The fundamental model is formulated using the laws of physics. Subsequently, different models can be derived by mathematical manipulation. For water network models three physical laws are employed: flow continuity, headloss continuity, and component equations (head/flow law), as follows (DMU, 1999):
dh r = − S − 1 (hr ) q r (t ) dt
Reservoir equation Component equation Mass balance equation
(Eq. 5.1) (Eq. 5.2) (Eq. 5.3)
Δh = R q n
Λq = − d
⎡Δh f ⎤ ΓΔ h = ⎢ ⎥ ⎣0 ⎦
Where:
Energy balance equation (Eq. 5.4)
S (hr )
qr
hr
= vector of reservoir heads (m) = area of the reservoir at hr level (m2) = vector of net reservoir outflow (m3/s) = component headloss vector (m) = branch (component) flow vector (m3/s) = demand flow vector (m3/s) = component resistance matrix (sn/m3n1):
Δh q d R
⎡ r1 ⎢0 R = ⎢ ⎢ ... ⎢ ⎣0
0 r2 0 ...
... ... ... 0
0 ... 0 rb
⎤ ⎥ ⎥ ... ⎥ ⎥ ⎦
( Eq .
5 .5 )
⎡Λ f ⎤ Λ = ⎢ ⎥ = n x b nodebranch incidence matrix ⎣Λ c ⎦
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This incidence matrix has a row for every node and a column for every branch (component) of the network. Two nonzero entries for each column +1 and 1 indicate the beginning and end of the branch respectively.
Λ
c
= nc x b connection node incidence matrix as above = nf x b fixed grade node incidence matrix as above
Λ
f
⎡Γ f ⎤ Γ = ⎢ ⎥ = (f+l) x b loopbranch incidence matrix that has a row ⎣Γl ⎦ for every fixed grade pseudoloop and for every primary loop and a column for every branch (component) of the network. Two nonzero entries (+1) and (1) in each row indicate orientation of the branch to go with or against the loop orientation.
Γf
= f x b fixed grade pseudoloop incidence matrix = l x b Primary loopbranch incidence matrix
Γl
Δ h f = headloss vector on fixed grade pseudoloop where a fixed
grade pseudoloop is a chain of branches between the pseudodatum node and any other fixed grade node. The vectors of reservoir heads and the vector of junction node heads can be combined into one vector of nodal heads:
h = hr
[
T
hc
T
]
T
( Eq .
5 .6 )
There are HazenWilliams Formula, DarcyWeisbach Formula, and ChezyManning Formula in water distribution network to calculate headloss Δ h (Rossman, 2000), the general formula is:
Δ h = Rq
n
(Eq. 5.7)
Where: R = pipe’s resistance, depends on pipe diameter and length, and how rough the pipe inner surface: For HazenWilliams Formula : R =
10 . 7 L C 1 . 852 D 4 .87 ( Eq . 5 .8 a )
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For DarcyWeisbach Formula : R =
8 fL gπ 2D 5
( Eq .
5 .8 b )
For ChezyManning Formula : R = Where: q D L C f m n
10 . 33 m 2 L ( Eq . D 5 .33
5 .8 c )
= flow rate (m3/s) = pipe diameter (m) = pipe length (m) = HazenWilliams CFactor (dimensionless) = DarcyWeisbach friction factor (dependent on pipe roughness, diameter, and flow rate, and its dimensionless) = Manning roughness coefficient = 1.852 for HazenWilliam and 2.0 for DarcyWeisbach and 2.0 for ChezyManning
In reality, the pipe CFactor “C” used in HazenWilliams formula’s is not constant. It vary depends on pipe diameter and flow rate variation. Thus if use HazenWilliam formula and assume “C” as constant, the result will not be accurate. But in actual application the error of assuming “C” value, as constant and use HazenWilliams formula will not affect design result significantly, moreover since the formula is simpler, convenience to calculate, thus general engineering application still use HazenWilliams formula at large (MingChang Tsai, 2002). The DarcyWeisbach equation is valid for fully developed, steady state and incompressible flow. The friction factor (f) depends on the flow, if it is laminar, transient or turbulent, and the roughness of the pipe. The friction factor can be calculated by using the Moody Diagram or by the Colebrook equation (Finnemore, 2001). The work of Lewis F. Moody, Professor, Hydraulic Engineering, Princeton University, and the Moody Diagram, has become the basis for many of the calculations on friction loss in pipes, ductwork and flues (Moody, 1944). The Moody Diagram can be used as a graphical solution of the Colebrook equation. The friction factor of commercial pipes is described by a semiempirical equation developed by Colebrook. This equation that expresses the friction factor as a function of relative roughness and Reynolds number (Re) is an implicit one requiring a trialanderror procedure for its determination (Jerry, 2002). There are tools available today that allow solution of the Colebrook equation, in both its implicit forms and explicit forms, without using the graphical approach (Lester, 2003).
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Implicit Forms of Colebrook: Friction factor is calculated, generally, by any one of the implicit equation of Colebrook (Colebrook, 1937). There are at least three forms of the Colebrook equation that can be found in current literature on hydraulics (Lester, 2003). These are:
1 = f 1 = f ⎛ ε 2 . 51 − 2 Log ⎜ + ⎜ 3 . 7 D Re f ⎝ ⎞ ⎟ ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎟ ⎟ ⎠ ( Eq . 5 .9 a )
⎛ 2ε 18 . 7 1 . 74 − 2 Log ⎜ + ⎜ D Re f ⎝
( Eq .
5 .9 b )
1 = f
⎛D⎞ 1 .14 + 2 Log ⎜ ⎟ ⎝ε ⎠
⎛ ⎞ ⎜ ⎟ 9 .3 ⎟ − 2 log ⎜ 1 + ⎜ ⎟ ⎛D⎞ Re ⎜ ⎟ f ⎟ ⎜ ⎝ε ⎠ ⎝ ⎠
( Eq . 5.9c )
Where: f = friction factor (dimensionless) ε = absolute pipe roughness (mm) D = inner diameter (mm) * Note: (ε /D) is the relative roughness and is dimensionless. Re = Reynolds Number (dimensionless):
Re =
ν
4q πD ν
( Eq .
5 . 10 )
= water kinematic viscosity (1.0x 106 m2/s at 20 °C)
These equations can be solved for ( f ), given the relative roughness (ε/D) and the Reynolds Number (Re), by iteration. Explicit Forms of Colebrook: To make the solution of Colebrook equation easier, some great engineers developed explicit expressions for the friction factor and there were many explicit expressions. Out of those, the following are the famous equations (Chen, 1976), (Churchill, 1976), (Jain, 1976), (Chen, 1976) , (Swamee, 1976), (Wood, 1977), (Zigrang, 1982), and (Serghides, 1984).
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1. Serghides equation (for Re > 2,100 and any ε/D)
⎫ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎬ 2 . 51 A ⎞ ⎪ ⎛ ε + B = − 2 Log ⎜ ⎟ Re ⎠ ⎪ ⎝ 3 .7 D ⎪ 2 . 51 B ⎞ ⎪ ⎛ ε + C = − 2 Log ⎜ ⎟⎪ Re ⎠ ⎭ ⎝ 3 .7 D ⎡ (B − A )2 ⎤ f = ⎢A − (C − 2 B + A )⎥ ⎣ ⎦ 12 ⎞ ⎛ ε + A = − 2 Log ⎜ ⎟ Re ⎠ ⎝ 3 .7 D
−2
(Eq .
5 . 11 a )
2. Moody equation (4,000 < Re < 107 and ε/D < 0.01)
13 ⎛ ⎛ ε 106 ⎞ ⎞ ⎟ ⎟ f = 5.5 ×10−3 ⎜1 + ⎜ 2 ×104 + ⎜ ⎜ ⎝ D Re ⎟ ⎟ ⎠ ⎠ ⎝
(Eq.
5.11b)
3. Wood equation (Re > 4,000 and any ε/D)
⎛ε ⎞ f = 0.094⎜ ⎟ ⎝ D⎠ ⎛ε ⎞ a = − 1.62⎜ ⎟ ⎝D⎠
0.225
⎛ε ⎞ ⎛ε ⎞ + 0.53⎜ ⎟ + 88⎜ ⎟ ⎝D⎠ ⎝D⎠
0.44
0.134
⎫ Re ⎪ ⎪ ⎬ ( Eq. 5.11c) ⎪ ⎪ ⎭
a
4. Jain Equation (for 5,000 < Re < 107 and 0.0000 4 < ε/D < 0.05)
1 21 . 25 ⎞ ⎛ε = 1 . 14 − 2 . 0 Log ⎜ + ⎟ Re 0 .9 ⎠ f ⎝D
( Eq .
5 . 11 d )
5. Swamee and Jain Equation (for Re > 4,000 and ε/D < 0.02)
f = 0 . 25 ⎡ ⎢ Log ⎣ 5 . 74 ⎛ + ⎜ 0 .9 ⎝ 3 . 7 D Re
ε
⎞⎤ ⎟⎥ ⎠⎦
2
( Eq .
5 . 11 e )
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6. Churchill Equation (for all values of Re and ε/D)
⎛ ⎛ 8 ⎞ 0 .5 1 f = 8⎜ ⎜ ⎟ + ⎜ ⎝ Re ⎠ ( A + B )1 .5 ⎝ ⎛ ⎛ 7 ⎞ 0 .9 A = − 2 . 457 Ln ⎜ ⎜ ⎜ ⎝ Re ⎟ ⎠ ⎝ ⎛ 37530 ⎞ B =⎜ ⎟ ⎝ Re ⎠
16
⎫ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ 16 ⎪ 0 . 27 ε ⎞ ⎪ ⎟ ⎬ + D ⎟ ⎪ ⎠ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎭ ⎞ ⎟ ⎟ ⎠
1 12
( Eq .
5 . 11 f )
7. Chen Equation (for all values of Re and ε/D)
⎛⎛ 1 ε ⎞ 5.0452 A ⎞ ⎫ = −2.0 Log ⎜ ⎜ ⎜ 3.7065 D ⎟ − Re ⎟ ⎪ ⎟ f ⎠ ⎝⎝ ⎠⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎞ ⎛ ⎛ ε ⎞1.10987 ⎟ ⎜⎜ ⎟ ⎬ ⎜⎝ D⎠ ⎛ 5.8506 ⎞ ⎟ ⎪ A = Log ⎜ + ⎜ 0.8981 ⎟ ⎟ ⎪ 2.8257 ⎝ Re ⎠⎟ ⎜ ⎪ ⎟ ⎜ ⎪ ⎠ ⎝ ⎭
( Eq. 5.11g )
8. Zigrang and Sylvester Equation (for 4,000 < Re < 108 and 0.00004 < ε/D < 0.05)
⎫ ⎪ ⎪ ⎬ ⎛ ε ⎛⎛ ε 5.02 13 ⎞ ⎞ ⎞⎪ A = Log ⎜ ⎟⎟ ⎜ ⎜ 3.7 D − Re Log ⎜ ⎜ 3.7 D + D ⎟ ⎟ ⎟⎪ ⎠ ⎠ ⎠⎭ ⎝⎝ ⎝
1 5.02 A ⎞ ⎛ ε = −2.0 Log ⎜ − ⎟ Re ⎠ f ⎝ 3.7 D
( Eq. 5.11h)
The ChezyManning formula is more commonly used for open channel flow that is out of the scope of this study. The fundamental mathematical model of water networks can be seen as a nonlinear differential algebraic equation (DAE) system, where equation (5.1) is the differential part describing the dynamics of the model, equations (5.2), (5.3), and (5.4) are representing the static model, where equations (5.2) and (5.4) are nonlinear algebraic equations, and equation (5.3) is linear equation. In order to solve this dynamic model it is necessary to calculate the righthand side of the differential equation (5.1). This in
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turn requires solution of a system of algebraic equations (5.2), (5.3), and (5.4)  the static model. Irrespective of the numerical procedure used, the simulation of water networks has led to the development of many methods of network flow analysis using various types of decompositions. Each decomposition expresses the resulting system of equations in terms of a specific type of independent variables. In the literature there are several types of models derived from the fundamental model, depending on which variables and which equations have been used (Ulanicka, 1998). The flow models have branch flows or loop flows for unknown variables. The nodal model has nodal heads for unknown variables and finally the mixed (or hybrid) model has both branch flows and nodal heads as the unknown variables. The numerical algorithms for solving the nonlinear equations are based on iterative techniques, e.g. NewtonRaphson (Brenan, 1989) where during each iteration; a system of linear equations is solved. These methods are commonly used to solve one of the four formulations of the continuity and energy equations that are necessary in implementing hydraulic modeling software. The four systems of equations and models are as follows: A Branch Flow Model (BFM) Where equations describing mass continuity (flow in = flow out) at each junction are coupled with headloss equations around each loop in the network. This method produces two separate sets of equations to be solved: linear junction equations and nonlinear loop equations. The total number of equations, which must be solved simultaneously, equals the number of branches (or pipes). Therefore, programs using the BFM often take a long time to complete the system calculations:
Λc q = − d ⎡Δh f ⎤ Γ R qn = ⎢ ⎥ ⎣0 ⎦
⎫ ⎪ ⎬ ⎪ ⎭
(Eq. 5.12)
The branch flows q are the unknown variables. BNodal Model (NM)
Where the Hydraulic Gradient Line (HGL) elevations at nodes are solved simultaneously. Unfortunately, all nodal model equations developed are nonlinear, but there are fewer equations to solve than with the branch flow model, because no loop equations must be solved:
Λc (GΛT h)−n =− d
(Eq. 5.13)
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Where G=1/R is the component conductance matrix. The node heads h are the unknown variables. C Loop Flow Model (LFM) Where the program assumes an initial value for flows through a loop and iteratively solves for the unknown corrective flow rate around each loop. Obviously, there are fewer loops than with either pipes or junctions, so the matrix created by the LFM formulation is smaller than with either of the other methods:
⎡Δhf ⎤ ΓR qn (ql , q f ) = ⎢ ⎥ ⎣0 ⎦
(Eq. 5.14)
The unknown variables are flows in fundamental loops ql and pseudoloops qf. The algorithm requires a complex procedure for finding the loops. D Mixed Model (MM) Known also as Hybrid Model (Hamam, 1971), which uses a combination of features associated with the nodal model and the loop flow model:
⎧Λc q = − d ⎨ n T ⎩R q = Λ h
(Eq. 5.15)
The branch flows q, and nodal heads h, are the unknown variables. These four models are present in the formulation of other application tasks such as network design, optimization, simplification or state estimation. In order to asses the relative merits of the different formulations for solving large pipe network problems, the comparison can be made in terms of simplicity of input, initial solution, size of the system of linear equations and efficiency of solution of the system of equations. The balance of these merits made the combination of the nodal heads and the NewtonRaphson algorithm to be the most frequently used procedure for solving water networks. Extended time simulations which are used to evaluate system performance over time and allows the human operator to model tanks filing and draining, valves opening and closing, have been implemented based on nodal heads equations. Finally, the combination of the NewtonRaphson method and the loop corrective flows is called the loop system of equations. Over the last decade the numerical simulations based on loop equations have received an increased attention. It has been
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shown that using the loop equations is a suitable framework for the inclusion of pressurecontrolling elements without specifying the operational state of the network (Arsene, 2004). 5.4 Theoretical properties of the mathematical model
The differential part of the fundamental model is described by equation (5.1), and equations (5.2), (5.3), and (5.4) represent the algebraic part. The theoretical properties that have direct practical significance are (Ulanicka, 1998): Existence of the solution (i.e. do one or more solutions exist?) Index of the model (i.e. is the Jacobian matrix nonsingular?) Stability (i.e. can a hydraulic model become unstable?) Models of water networks are nonlinear systems analogous to electrical networks. Some results can be almost directly transferred from the theory of electrical networks. The equivalent result for a water network can be formulated as follows: Theorem 1 (Existence theorem): “The static model (Eq. 5.2, 5.3, and 5.4) of a network comprising reservoirs, pipes, valves, and pumps, has one and only one solution for branch flows and nodal heads”. o Proof: The proof is accomplished by identifying the corresponding elements in water networks and electrical networks and by checking that pipes, valves and pumps have strictly monotonically increasing head/flow characteristics. Theorem 2 (Index theorem): The DAE model of a water network consisting of reservoirs, pipes, valves, and pumps, has an index equal to 1. o Proof: The proof is accomplished by investigating the Jacobian of the algebraic part of the model, and by checking that the Jacobian of (Eq. 5.2, 5.3, and 5.4) is a nonsingular matrix. Theorem 3 (Stability theorem): The model of a water network consisting of reservoirs, pipes, valves, and pumps is a stable system. o Proof: The model is equivalent to an electrical network made of nonlinear monotonic resistors, independent sources and capacitors and the latter model is stable. Some water networks include pressurecontrolling valves (PRVs and PSVs). These valves have local control loops and cannot be represented by two terminal models with monotonic characteristics. There are strong indications that Theorems 1, 2, 3 are also valid for networks with pressure
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controlling valves. The reasoning can be based on the fact that stabilization of the downstream head is accomplished by modification of the conductance (minor losses) of the valve. The changes in the state of the valve from closed to active and then open are obtained by a continuous change in conductance starting from zero to some maximum value that corresponds to the valve being fully open. 5.5 Numerical methods
Simulation of real water distribution systems, that do not consist of a single pipe and cannot be described by a single equation, consists of solving a system of equations. The invention of digital computers allowed powerful numerical technique to be developed that set up and solve the system of equations describing the hydraulics of the network in matrix form (Rossman, 1996). These numerical methods can be classified as HardyCross method, NewtonRaphson method, Linear Theory method, Linear Graph theory, Finite Element Method (Corneliu, 2004). These classes include methods used for the solution of systems of nonlinear equations. Generally to simplify calculation of water network analysis, we assume pipe network’s water flow is steady flow, thus omit time factor in influencing flow volume. 5.5.1 HardyCross method
The oldest method for systematically solving the problem of steady flow in pipenetworks is HardyCross method. HardyCross invented this method in 1936. Fair Howland and Fair Hurst later improved it (Corneliu, 2004). HardyCross Method is a simplified version of the iterative linear analysis to solve problems related to flow in pipe networks (MingChang, 2002). It is a trial and error method. The HardyCross method is also known as the single path adjustment method and is a relaxation method. The flow rate in each pipe is adjusted iteratively until all equations are satisfied. The method is based on two primary physical laws: A The sum of pipe flows into and out of a node equals the flow entering or leaving the system through the node. B Hydraulic head (i.e. elevation head + pressure head) is singlevalued. This means that the hydraulic head at a node is the same whether it is computed from upstream or downstream directions. Pipe flows are adjusted iteratively using the following equation:
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Δq = ±
∑
⎡ ⎢n ⎣
N
h
i=1 N
fi fi
∑
h
i=1
qi
⎤ ⎥ ⎦
(Eq.
5.16)
Where: ∆q N q hfi n
= loop flow adjustment (m3/s) = number of pipes in the loop = pipe flow rate (m3/s) = headloss in pipe I (m) = 1.852 for HazenWilliam and 2.0 for DarcyWeisbach
The pipe flow is adjusted until the change in flow in each pipe is less than the convergence criteria. 5.5.2 NewtonRaphson method
Later, NewtonRaphson method has been utilized to solve large networks. Computer storage requirements are not greatly larger than those needed by the HardyCross method. NewtonRaphson is an iterative method for solving nonlinear problems. It begins with an initial guess at the solution, and then generates a sequence of points that step increasingly close to the real solution. When the initial guess is far from the solution, the NewtonRaphson method may diverge (Brenan, 1989). 5.5.3 Linear Theory method
An additional method called Linear Theory method has also been proposed. The Linear Theory Method was first introduced by McIlroy in 1949 (McIlroy, 1949). He based his algorithm on Qequations (linearized equations based on the difference between estimated and corrected flows in a pipe). The basic idea of the linear theory is to transform nonlinear headloss equations into linear equations and then solve the system of equations together with linear continuity equations. Later computer programs were written based on Qequations (linearized equations of flows in pipes) and hequations (linearized equation of nodal heads) (Scholz, 2005). 5.5.4 Finite Element Methods
Recently, with the gaining of popularity of Finite Element Methods (FEM), pipe network is analyzed with relative advantage. The FEM is quite
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different from Kirchhoff’s analogy. FEM was introduced originally as a method for solving structural mechanical problems, which was later recognized as a general procedure for numerical approximation to all physical problems that can be modeled by a differential equation description. To solve any problem using the FEM, the boundary conditions for the problem must be known. The FEM based on matrix structuring requires an important volume of iterations and calculations that could constitute a major constraint in the case of a large network. Large volume of literature is available for the first three methods, however, only few literature is available to exploit the advantages of Finite Element Method (Collins, 1975). 5.5.5 Linear Graph theory
The linear graph theory is used in analyzing and optimizing water distribution networks. The method has many distinct advantages over the existing methods such as HardyCross method, NewtonRaphson method, Linear theory method which are basically relaxation techniques. In these methods, the two independent set of continuity equations do not appear explicitly in the formulation of the problem but are primarily used for verification purpose. Therefore suitability of these methods entirely depends upon the proper initial guess of the variable values and the iteration scheme used in the analysis. Many times the solution does not converge and, even if it converges, it may take unusually large computer time. In the first step, the component model of hydraulic network such as reservoir or tank, pipe, check valve, pressure reducing valve and booster pump based on graph theory approach is formed. Then the analysis based on linear graph theory approach has been carried out which frees the analysis from the problem of convergence and initialization. In this case, the model formulation is based on the direct utilization of both sets of continuity equations and no initial guess or convergence problem occur. The analysis is based on two types of formulation, namely, twig formulation and link formulation. Moreover, the linear graph theory approach, explicitly takes into account the various topographical feature of the system. The addition of pumps, reservoirs etc can also be easily incorporated in the analysis (Rajiv, 2000). 5.6 Extendedperiod simulation
Extended time hydraulic simulation is a process of solving the mathematical model equations (5.1) to (5.4) over the time horizon with given initial conditions, control schedules and demands in order to
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calculate the output. The network model is an instance of a DAE system but with a very specific structure. The dynamic part is very small and simple and the static part is very complicated. The static and dynamic parts interact by two vectors hf (reservoir head) and qf (reservoir flow). For given reservoir levels the static part can be solved (static simulation). The reservoir levels in turn are affected only by reservoir flows. This structure ensures that instantaneous properties of the model are decided by the static part and a simple Euler integration scheme is sufficient to solve the dynamic model; extendedperiod simulation (Ulanicka, 1998). Euler integration is the simplest and most obvious way to numerically integrate a set of differential equations (William, 2001). Euler integration consists of the following steps: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Set Time to its initial value. Initialize the levels. Compute the rates of change of the Levels at the current value of Time. Use the rates of change to compute the Levels at Time + Timestep. Add Timestep to Time. Repeat steps 35 until Time is equal to Final Time.
Euler integration assumes that the rates computed at a given time are constant through the time interval (timestep). This method is easy to understand, and easy to implement; however it is not accurate enough for integrating over any reasonably long time intervals. It is accurate enough to use in short time integrations though. The error made in using Euler integration is proportional to the square of timestep on an integration step and proportional to timestep over the whole simulation. To make the integration more accurate, one can decrease timestep. 5.7 FINESSE simulator (GINAS)
As it was mentioned in Chapter 4, FINESSE simulator provides steadystate simulation, and extendedperiod simulation (e.g. over a 24 hours horizon). The calculation engine is a third party software called GINAS (Coulbeck, 1985) and (DMU, 1991). GINAS is a “Graphical and Interactive program for Network Analysis and Simulation” for water distribution system and is applicable to most of water supply network. Information about a network and about the way in which it is simulated is to be simulated is fed to GINAS via an input data file. The results are presented graphically in response to the user
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request. The types of network components provided for by GINAS are introduced:  Nodes: Normal junction nodes, Variable load node, Fixed head reservoir, Variable head reservoir, and Curve head reservoir.  Elements: Normal pipeline, Completely closed line, Altitude control valve, Borehole head drawdown, Proportional pressure reducing valve, Flow reducing valve, Pressure modulating valve, Nonreturn valve, Pressure reducing valve, variable control valve, Head controlled valve, Fixed head element, Curve head element, Fixed flow element, Curve flow element, Fixed speed pump, Variable speed pump, Variable throttle pump, Fixed speed turbine.  Switches: Time switch, Head switch, High head switch with time delay, Low head switch with time delay, Time switch with high head switch, Time switch with low head switch.
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CHAPTER 6
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Objectives of SCADA systems for water distribution network
A Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system is a widely distributed computerized system primarily used to remotely control and monitor the condition of fieldbased assets from a central location. SCADA systems enable the manager (or operator) to remotely view realtime measurements, such as the level of water in a tank, and remotely initiate the operation of network elements such as pumps and valves. SCADA systems can be set up to sound alarms at the central host computer when a fault within a water supply system is identified. They can also be used to keep a historical record of the temporal behavior of various variables in the system such as tank and reservoir levels. The value of the SCADA system can be enhanced if it incorporates advanced capabilities, such as modeling and simulation (Cameron, 1998). When working with SCADA data, the modeler often has access to more data than can be easily processed. For example, the modeler may have several weeks of data from which to calibrate an extendedperiod simulation (EPS) model and must pick a representative day or days to use as the basis for calibration. Selecting the best modeling analysis period from these thousands of numbers, which may be in several sources, is extremely difficult. Usually, there is no day when all of the instrumentation is functioning properly, so selecting that day is often based on finding the day with the fewest problems (Walski, 2003). Another challenge of working with SCADA data is that incorrect readings, timescale errors, or missing values may not be readily apparent in the mass of raw data. Fortunately, the modeler can use any of several procedures to compile and organize SCADA information into a more usable format, usually in the form of a spreadsheet. The tables and graphs developed using these procedures can be then used directly for a range of applications, including EPS model calibration, forecasting of system operations, and estimating water loss during main breaks (Walski, 2003). For a water distribution network, the common objectives of a
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SCADA system are to do the following: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Monitor the system. Obtain control over the system and ensure that required performance is always achieved. Reduce operational staffing levels through automation or by operating a system from a single central location. Store data on the behavior of a system and therefore achieve full compliance with mandatory reporting requirements for any regulatory agency. Provide information on the performance of the system and establish effective asset management procedures for the system. Establish efficient operation of the system by minimizing the need for routine visits to remote sites and potentially reduce power consumption during pumping operations through operational optimization. Provide a control system that will enable operating objectives to be set and achieved. Provide an alarm system that will allow faults to be diagnosed from a central point, thus allowing field repair trips to be made by suitably qualified staff to correct the given fault condition and to avoid incidents that may be damaging to the environment.
7. 8.
However, a hydraulic model can also be used to assist SCADA operators with setting up controls for an existing SCADA system or for entirely new SCADA installations. Rather than experimenting with the real system, the operator can test out different control strategies in the model and determine if the new controls are an improvement or if there are adverse impacts. Before a SCADA system comes on line, it is usually tested by simulating events such as tank levels and valve statuses using EPS model runs. Results from these tests can be used to determine control set points, levels, and variablefrequencydrive settings. With model output linked to the manmachine interface of the SCADA system, it becomes possible to simulate much more realistic sequences of events to better test the SCADA system (Cameron, 1998). In the water industry the water security and reliably providing water is one of it basic core competencies. SCADA data allows operations staff to develop a high level of understanding the effects their actions have on the supply of water, by providing feedback. Most water utilities would have had some form of such feedback even without SCADA (e.g. being able to interrogate tank levels). Another core competency of a water utility is ensuring the water quality is maintained. This means ensuring an
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appropriate chlorine residual is maintained throughout the system. The basic information to do this is the chlorine residual, the rate of turnover of water in the system, the temperature of the water, and the raw water quality. Much of this information is expensive to collect and rarely provided in a comprehensive manner with or without SCADA. If this information is routinely provided it can be seen that the competency of the utility in this area would improve dramatically by increasing the understanding of operations staff of the impact of their operating decisions on water quality (Ian, 2005). Also, secure water systems have properties that reduce the likelihood of successful attacks (Barry C. Ezell, 1998) and the system would provide constant monitoring of all vulnerable areas. It would immediately report any security breaches or abnormal operation conditions. It would eliminate any necessity for regular patrols and significantly reduce the frequency of visits to remote sites. The system would continue operating if the power was cut off or communication line severed. It would be accessible to operations people even if the control room were disables or evacuated. It would provide security from hacking. The system also would be able to react to conditions and perform control actions, which could safely shut down processes or isolate sections of the water distribution system (Bristol Babcock Inc., 2001). On January 1998 a survey was posted at “http://virginia.edu”. The purpose of the survey was to gather information about the cyber threat, understand the state of SCADA in water supply systems, document any intrusions in the past year, and analyze trends among the administrators of these systems. 6.2 Components of a SCADA system
SCADA encompasses the transfer of data between a SCADA central host computer and a number of remote sites (Remote Terminal Units RTUs), and the central host and the operator terminals. A generic SCADA system employs some form of data multiplexing (MUXs) between the central host and the RTUs (Figure 6.1). These multiplexers serve to route data to and from a number of RTUs on a local network, while using one or very few physical links on a Wide Area Network (WAN) backbone to pass data back to the central host computer. An important aspect of every SCADA system is the computer software used within the system. The most obvious software component is the operator interface or MMI/HMI (Man Machine Interface/Human Machine Interface) package; however, softwares of some form present throughout all levels of a SCADA system. Depending on the size and nature of the SCADA application, software can be a significant cost item
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when developing, maintaining, and expanding a SCADA system. When software is welldefined, designed, written, checked, and tested, a successful SCADA system will likely be produced. Poor performances in any of these project phases will very easily cause a SCADA project to fail. Many SCADA systems employ commercial proprietary software upon which the SCADA system is developed. The proprietary software often is configured for a specific hardware platform and may not interface with the software or hardware produced by competing vendors.
Figure 6.1 : Generic SCADA system network 6.3 Data acquisition mechanisms
Data acquisition within SCADA systems is accomplished first by the RTUs scanning the field data interface devices connected to the RTU. The time to perform this task is called the scanning interval and can be faster than two seconds. The central host computer scans the RTUs (usually at a much slower rate) to access the data in a process referred to as polling the RTUs. Some systems allow the RTU to transmit field values and alarms to the central host without being polled by the central host. This mechanism is known as unsolicited messaging. Systems that allow this mechanism usually use it in combination with the process of polling the RTU to solicit information as to the health of the RTU. Unsolicited messages are usually only transmitted when the field data has deviated by a prespecified percentage, so as to minimize the use of the communications channels, or when a suitably urgent alarm indicating some site abnormality exists. Control actions that are performed by using the central host are generally treated as data that are sent to the RTU. As such, any control actions by an operator logged into the central host will initiate a
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communication link with the RTU to allow the control command to be sent to the field data interface device under control. SCADA systems usually employ several layers of checking mechanisms to ensure that the transmitted command is received by the intended target. 6.4 Types of SCADA data and SCADA data format
Data received from SCADA systems fall into one of the following categories: a) Analog data (real numbers): Analog data are usually represented by integers or IEEE floatingpoint numbers (these are numbers that have no fixed number of digits before and after the decimal point and that follow the popular Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers standard IEEE). It may be trended (placed in charts that show variation over time) or used to generate alarms indicate an abnormal condition. b) Digital data (on/off or open/closed): Digital data may be used to sound alarms, depending on the state (on/off or open/closed) reflected by the data. c) Pulse data: Pulse data, such as the number of revolutions of a meter, are accumulated at either the site collection point or at the SCADA central host computer. They are typically converted to the same number format as analog data; however, they are physically derived in a different manner from pure, real number analog data obtained from field instrumentation. d) Status bits (or flags): Status bits are usually auxiliary to analog data. For example, a data flag can accompany an analog input if the SCADA system determines that a value is possibly invalid. SCADA systems generally allow some form of data transfer to external applications. For example, data may be exported as ASCII text, as a spreadsheet file, or to a proprietary “data historian” software package. Once the data are in tabular format within a spreadsheet, it is possible to manipulate the data to investigate the behavior of the instrument or the associated plant being monitored. 6.5 Handling of data during SCADA failures and processing of data from the field Different SCADA systems cope differently with a failure event.
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Some systems rely primarily on the inherent redundancy of the SCADA system, and others may use some form of storage mechanism to archive data that may be recovered once the SCADA system has returned to normal operating capacity. These options are: Storage of data in the RTUs System redundancy Most SCADA systems employ a combination of the preceding mechanisms to ensure data continuity during failure events. The primary interface to the operator from the operator terminal is a Graphical User Interface (GUI) display that shows a representation of the plant or equipment in graphical form. Live data are shown as graphical shapes (foreground) over a static background. As the data changes in the field, the foreground is updated. For example, a valve may be shown as open or closed, depending on the latest digital value from the field. The most recent analog values are displayed on the screens as numerical values or as some physical representation, such as the amount of filled color in a tank to represent water level. Alarms may be represented on a screen as a red flashing icon above the relevant field device. The system may have many such displays, and the operator can select from the relevant ones at any time. 6.6 Responding to data problems and verifying data validity
When incorrect SCADA readings are found, the modeler typically examines another time period and set of data where the problems do not occur. However, if a unique distribution system event is to be analyzed or if collecting the SCADA data requires a special effort by SCADA operators, the modeler may not have the option of selecting another problemfree period. Discussions with SCADA operators can provide insight into the causes of inconsistencies in the data and permit the modeler to make appropriate allowances. Completing the data series with information from chart recorders, data loggers, or other monitoring devices, and shifting time scales where justified also can address SCADA data issues sufficiently to support modeling applications (Walski, 2003). EPS modeling analyses require SCADA information to be divided into model timesteps. The duration of the model timestep depends on the type of analysis being performed and is usually based on separating the total analysis time period into a reasonable and manageable number of steps. However, it may be difficult to download SCADA data at time increments that directly correspond to model timesteps (Walski, 2003).
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Along with the convenience of remote monitoring via SCADA comes the drawback of data consumers becoming overly reliant on the data received from the SCADA system. A user of data may mistakenly assume the correctness of data received from a SCADA system when in fact the only way to be assured of its integrity is through critical analysis. Software for the central host is available that offers automatic detection of sensor data errors through continuous automatic analysis of data using such techniques as neural network analysis. However, more conventional data techniques are typically used to verify the validity of critical sensors and systems associated with a SCADA system. 6.7 Integrating SCADA systems and hydraulic models
SCADA systems monitor the water distribution system performance at discrete stations scattered throughout the service area. However, there may be locations in the distribution system, such as meter pits, that lack the power or communication connections required for a functional SCADA station. For these situations, the flows and pressures can be estimated from SCADA information at nearby stations. When these calculations are not complicated, they can be performed within the SCADA software (for example, by offsetting pressure readings from other stations based on differences in elevation). However, when the situation is more complex, a hydraulic model interfaced with the SCADA software is required to estimate parameters at non SCADA locations (Ingeduld, 2000). The steps involved in calculating information for nonSCADA sites include: Export data on boundary conditions from SCADA, Configure the hydraulic model to match those specific conditions, Execute the model, and finally view the results or import results from the model back into SCADA. This type of procedure is typically automated and accomplished with some form of dynamic data linkage between the SCADA system and modeling software. Another example of this integration is estimating water loss during main breaks. Tracking the water discharged from the system during main breaks can help quantify losses. Generally, a significant main break will show up in SCADA records as low pressures readings, an unexplained decline in tank levels, excessive pump flow, or other unexplained data inconsistencies. SCADA information for the time period surrounding the break can be downloaded to a hydraulic model and the model can then be executed to simulate system conditions at the time of the break. By adjusting the demands  or emitter coefficients  at the break location and trying different start and finish times for the break, the modeler should be able to match modeling results to the SCADA records during the break and thus determine the quantity of water lost.
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In Chapter 4 of this thesis the hydraulic modeling and simulation softwares were introduced. Most of the softwares packages offered linking with external systems in particular SCADA. AQUIS, PICCOLO and SynerGEE make linking to SCADA an optional extra whilst the others provide it as standard. With the information provided by the developers from their Websites or brochures, it was quite difficult to determine exactly if the different packages offered realtime links to SCADA, or if in fact the links were merely online. The only packages that offer true realtime linking were AQUIS, InfoWorks, H2Onet and PICCOLO. It could not be determined if SynerGEE and WaterCAD perform realtime linking. AQUIS – Optional realtime module for SCADA linking The system can operate in two modes, online and realtime. In online mode, the system will use SCADA and logger data collected over a period, say 24 hours or a week, while in realtime mode new SCADA data is used every few minutes. H2Onet  SCADA Interface provided as standard with Analyzer H2ONet Analyzer provides the capability to extract realtime modeling data directly from SCADA system in ASCII format. InfoWorks – SCADA interface provided as standard Realtime links with telemetry and logger data systems. Live Data Links enable transfers and fixed heads to be updated automatically at a frequency determined by field data download. This allows the simulated network to reflect current hydraulic behavior making the model a true operational tool. PICCOLO – Optional realtime module for SCADA linking PICCOLO Realtime is an application which allows a hot link between a SCADA system and a PICCOLO model, and provides alarms on unexpected events such as abnormal data, or discrepancy between real time data and model results. PICCOLO Realtime analyzes a network’s real time operation conditions and validates pumping strategies in terms of water quality and pressure. SynerGEE Water – Optional online module for SCADA linking Online Module capabilities provide automatic transfer of operational and reference data from SCADA system into SynerGEE and hydraulic simulation using that data. This is all done without operator intervention. WaterCAD – SCADA interface provided as standard No information provided by Haestad on whether WaterCAD could perform realtime linking with SCADA.
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FINESSE – SCADA Interface provided as standard It can perform “OnLine” and “Real time” simulation. FINESSE SCADA interface provides the capability to extract realtime modeling data directly from SCADA system. * Note: All the above information was taken from the same sources as those of Chapter 4. 6.8 Description of SCADA systems at SCP
The problem of the hydraulic management arises when the system’s manager and operators have to administer hydraulic streams of openflow structures (canals, galleries) and storage tanks. This kind of hydraulic systems needs particular research for control applications because they are big scale systems, open and characterized by big delays and great inertia. The main purpose of the automatic control of open channel hydraulic systems, such as irrigation canals, is to optimize the water supply in order to match the expected or aleatory water demands at the offtakes level. In real situations with the traditional management tools, an openchannel water conveyance and delivery system is very difficult to manage, especially if there is a ondemand operation (Almeida, 2002). The objectives of the systems of hydraulic management are to answer in appropriate time and in sufficiency the necessities and behavior of the users, to respect the constraints of use of hydraulic works, to optimize resources in water, and to optimize the set of the costs of construction, running costs of works and equipments. These objectives are reached by means of a system of remote supervision. The management and operation of the Canal de Provence are assured by automatic regulation software connected to a realtime supervisor. This supervisor centralizes and archive data coming from numerous sensors spread on a vast perimeter. The following sections describe the main components of this SCADA system at SCP (Canivet, 2002). 6.8.1 The equipments of the supervisor system
Data processing is assured by two workstations of type Alpha Server 300 (HP) used under the operating system VMS based in the Control Central (CGTC). The CGTC supervises 11 Regional Operating Room (French: Centre Régional d’Exploitation, CRE). Each of these centers possesses a PC or a workstation using the same software packages that CGTC uses. These regional operating rooms are connected to host computers but also control their own telemeasurements locally (Figure 6.2). Hence, the system of data acquisition via the remote control network
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is done either: Directly by remote transmission stations or automatons, By the remote transmission frontends at the equipment room of CGTC, Or by “calculator” connected to the supervisors at the regional operating rooms. The different media serve as means of remote transmission are: • • • • • Private cables Rented specialized connections Public telephone network GSM network Radio links
The securing of information is assured by the redundancy of information and by looping some connections. Generally the GSM network is used as standby network in case of rupture of cabled communication. The realtime database of the CGTC supervisor is composed of: o 1,300 telemetries (TM) which include the measurements of levels, position of gates, pressure, quality of the water …), o 13,000 remotesignalization (RS) (states or defects of the equipments), o 41 remoteregulation (by sending signals of flow or gate opening at the automaton), o 375 remotecontrols (direct, on gates securities or pumps). The acquisition of measurements from automatons is done every minute. Data archived in the realtime database of the supervisor is done every 15 minutes. The used equipments provide, first of all, information on the state of the canal all the time. This information is mainly obtained by means of measuring sensors. 6.8.2 Description of the measuring chain of SCP
This section aims at describing the architecture of the chain of network measurement of Canal de Provence. It describes in details the various types of measurements made within the framework of the networks and canals supervision, as well as data connected to these measurements and collected in the realtime database. In the case of the measurements that are made on the Canal de Provence, we shall distinguish two types of measurements:
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Host Computers
RT frontend
Support of RT Specialized connections Specialized connections Public telephone network
STATION RT
STATION RT
STATION RT
RS REGULATOR AUTOMATONS
Equipments
Equipments
RC Actuator
TM
OnOff Switch Gate Pump
Sensors
Figure 6.2 : Architecture of SCADA communication at SCP 1) Direct measurements, which represent measurements whose error results from the calibration of the measuring chain. 2) Calculated measurements, which are the measurements obtained from direct measurements. They use mathematical laws to transform these measurements into final measurements. This class concerns the measurements of flow in the case of openflow surface. a) The measurements of levels The measurements of levels are used to follow:  The variation of water levels in the reservoirs and water tanks (static regime),
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 The evolution of water levels in the canals (dynamic regime). On the majority of hydraulic works, the measurements of levels are done in measuring wells communicating with the controlled work. This technique allows filtering the fluctuations in levels that disrupt measurements (notably those due to the wind). The types of used devices are very different:  Sensors measuring hydrostatic differential pressure,  Immersed probes whose height is at least equal to the maximal height of the reservoir. At present, two new types of devices come to be used. These devices use a method based on the use of the radiation to deduct the level. Radiation can be: • Acoustic wave: The sensor is composed of a receiving emitting station and is placed either at the top of the reservoir or at the bottom. the acoustic devices utilize an acoustic “shockwave” sent down a vertical waveguide. After striking the water surface, the wave is reflected back to a transducer and microcomputer that converts travel time to distance based on the speed of sound in air. This type of device allows more precise measurements but the speed of acoustic waves in the air depends on the temperature. • Microwaves: Used technology is identical to acoustic wave. The propagation of waves is close to the light speed so independent on the temperature and the pressure surrounding the receiving emitting station. The levels measurements are considered by the operator as the most reliable measurements among the set of measurements made on the canal. They belong to the class of direct measurements. b) The flow measurements The measurements of flow are divided into two classes: 1. The direct flow measurements Numerous types of sensors allow knowing the flow that passes through a pressurized pipe. At SCP, we find:
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>> The electromagnetic flowmeters The emission of a magnetic induction field perpendicular to the flow velocity of a fluid in a pipe of diameter D, creates an electromagnetic force whose amplitude is directly related to the flow velocity. >> Ultrasound flowmeters The speed of the sound depends on the physical media of propagation and its temperature. If this media is in movement then the time of propagation of the acoustic wave is affected by the velocity of moving media. The measurement of this propagation time allows to measure the velocity of the fluid and hence the measurement of flow. In this case, it is possible to build a mathematical expression, which relates the propagation time of the wave directly to the distance that separates receiving emitting stations, and to the flow velocity of the fluid, without taking into account the speed of the sound. Generally, ultrasound flowmeters is installed in the pressurized networks just like the electromagnetic flowmeters. >> Venturi Flowmeters A contraction of the pipe carrying a flow creates between the upstream and downstream a difference of pressure ΔP related to the flow. The knowledge of the geometry’s constant of the device as well as the density is necessary to establish this relation. 2. The indirect flow measurements The knowledge of flow rates in the case of openflow surface is done from laws that are empirical and mathematical laws that allow relating various direct measurements to obtain an estimate of the flow rate. In the case of the Canal de Provence two types of laws are used: laws of gates and laws of weirs. These laws allow knowing flow according to the used type of gate/weir as well as the opening of the gate/weir and the water level at the upstream and at the downstream of the gate/weir. c) Volume measurements Volume measurements are indirect measurements, which are dependent on the water levels measurements and the reservoir geometry. For canals, the volume measurement in a canal depends on the average inflow and on the downstream level of the canal.
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6.8.3
The measurements acquisition in realtime
Every minute, the host computer comes to interrogate the local stations of remote transmission to obtain immediate measurements. These measurements are displayed on representative synoptic of the hydraulic works and facilities of Canal de Provence. Every fifteen minutes, the measurements archiving procedure is launched. Measurements can be: >> Valid if the station sends back a value which falls within the defined measuring range corresponding to the interrogated sensor. >> Nonvalid for the cases where:  Communication with the remote transmission station is not done neither by the direct communication nor by the standby network.  Communication between the sensor and the remote transmission station is impossible (sensor is out of service, or is being repaired …),  Measurement does not fall into the defined measuring range corresponding to the interrogated sensor,  The system of supervision is stopped before the phase of acquisition and restarted later. Measurement is then absent in the database. A measurement code is archived in the database and translates the causes of the absence of measurements: If value in the database is ( 1), interrogated measurement was invalidated by a posterior treatment (measurements out of range, sensor out of service …) If value in the database is ( 2), measurement is absent in the database (communication with the station is impossible, task of acquisition from supervision is stopped …), If value in the database is ( 3), measurement does not exist in the interrogated base (computer address corresponding in the measurement is not recognized by the database). In case of prolonged absence of measurements in the database, a special acquisition task is set up. This task interrogates the databases of the computers at the regional operating rooms. If a measurement is faulty in the central database and present in the regional operating room database, then, the values of this measurement are replaced by the data from the regional database. This task is launched every morning (at 06:00 AM) for measurements verification for the day before. The water levels measurements in the supervisor realtime database
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are instantaneous measurements that are archived every 15 minutes. The archived flows measurements are the average flow of the instantaneous measurements over 15 minutes stored in the remote transmission stations. It is not so strictly speaking instantaneous measurements. Calculated measurements are dependent on the presence of valid measurements in the database. So if a direct measurement serving for constructing a calculated measurement is absent, then calculated measurement will be in turn nonvalid. All the acquisitions tasks which cannot succeed and which are due to nonvalid measurements in the database are announced to the operator by alarms. 6.8.4 Measurements conciliation technique
The measurements reconciliation consists in generating information representing a physical unit, which will be regarded as credible and reliable by the users. The algorithm used for data validation is made up as shown in Figure 6.3. 6.9 Establishing link between FINESSE SCADA Gateway and CGTC supervisor
FINESSE is able to carry out two types of simulation: either “OffLine” simulation where the software employs all the data already entered in its database since the model building stage; or “OnLine” and “Real time” simulation where the software must be connected to the supervisor such as it will look up data necessary for the simulation (Rance, 2002). The CGTC supervisor data that is at the disposal of FINESSE is mainly: abcdefghTanks Level (m) Tank inflow or outflow (m3/s) Pump pressure (bar) Pump flow (m3/s) Pump rotation speed (rpm) Valve opening (%) Watermeters measurements Pressure sensors measurements (bar)
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Acquisition of measurements
Global estimation under constraints:  of positivity of measurements,  of respect of flows balance.
Calculation of the residues of normalized estimation
Recalculation of residues considering the bias
Nonverified Test
Verified Test
Not all estimated data is valid
Sequential estimation of measurements and bias All estimated data is valid under constraint:
End of estimating procedure
Figure 6.3 : Schema of data conciliation algorithm Each one of these data has its own address to which it is saved in the database of the supervisor. According to the data storage system of the CGTC, this address is made up of five subaddresses separated by “points”, for example: TM.07.03.03.00, and PM.03.01.01.02, where: 1) Two characters refer to the “data category”, for example: TM refers to TeleMeasured one, PM refers to PseudoMeasured one. The “Pseudo” prefix indicates that this measurement is estimated, calculated or derived from one measured value or more. For example if the pumping flow is measured, the pressure can be estimated from the pump characteristic curve.
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2) Two digits refer to the “Frontend Number” of the interrogated station by the CGTC server. 3) Two digits refer to the “Station Number” interrogated by the Frontend. 4) Two digits refer to the “AddressWord Number” linked to the station sensor. 5) Two digits refer to the “Number of Bits” in the AddressWord. In order to carry out “OnLine” simulation, it is necessary to define the following six elements in FINESSE input data: A. Simulation Period: the numbers of days for which FINESSE will look up data from the supervisor and perform the simulation. It lies between one and seven days. B. Simulation timestep: the lapse of time, in minutes, to which FINESSE will carry out calculations. In all cases, the maximum ratio of the simulation period to the timestep must be less than or equal to 168. For example, if the simulation period is seven days (10,080 minutes), the timestep must be at least 10,080/168 = 60 minutes. C. Curve: this curve represent a data storage and the variation of the stored data (pressure, flow, pump rotation speed, …) over the simulation period at each timestep mentioned above. This curve must be defined by its ID number and it will be automatically filled in during the “Online” simulation if the data are available in the supervisor. D. Starting Date of the simulation. E. Supervisor name and address where the data is stored and to which FINESSE will be connected. F. Data address label in the supervisor. This address should be identical to that explained above. This address is defined in FINESSE by what is called “Mnemonic”. The schema of Figure 6.4 shows the “Telemetric Link” between FINESSE and CGTC/SCP supervisor. However, this link is tested in at the CGTC and it was working correctly.
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Figure 6.4 : “Telemetric Link” between FINESSE and CGTC/SCP supervisor
CGTC Supervisor
FINESSE SCADA Interface
( Database )
Water Level Sensor ( Size = 2 bits )
Address Word N°2 Address Word N°1 TM.02.01.03.02
Frontend N°1 Station N°1 Frontend N°2 Frontend N°3 Frontend N°4
CGTC
TM.03.01.02.02 TM.01.01.01.02 TM.04.01.02.01
Res_X
Address Word N°3
Station N°2
Address Word N°4
Alpha Server
Station N°3 Station N°4
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CHAPTER 7
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7.1
Introduction
Scarcity of water in many countries imposes a rational use of resources. For this reason, hydraulic network management is very important. Modeling hydraulic network can be very useful in managing the system and making decisions about a system rehabilitation or major expansion. The simulation models, with introducing of SCADA system for an efficient management, have also eased the decisionmaking process by predicting the behavior of a real water distribution system under existing or modified condition. One of the most important problems concerning the use of the mathematical simulators is determining how well they represent the physical system (Walski, 2003). The primary objective of a simulation is to reproduce the behavior of a real system and its spatial and dynamic characteristics in a useful way. It is unlikely that the pressures and flows computed by the simulation model will absolutely agree with observed pressures and flows (Pérez, 2001). Significant mathematical assumptions are employed by the simulation software to make the simulation computationally tractable, yet allow the simulated results to be meaningful and useful. Even though the required data have been collected and entered into a hydraulic simulation software package, the modeler can not assume that the model is an accurate mathematical representation of the system. The hydraulic simulation software simply solves the equations of continuity and energy using the supplied data; thus, the quality of the data will dictate the quality of the results. The accuracy of a hydraulic model depends on how well it has been calibrated. Calibration is the process of comparing the model results to field observations and, if necessary, adjusting the data describing the system until modelpredicted performance reasonably agrees with measured system performance over a wide range of operating conditions (Walski, 2003). The process of calibration may include changing system demands, finetuning the roughness of pipes, altering pump operating characteristics,
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and adjusting other model attributes that affect simulation results. Some may assume that calibration can be accomplished by adjusting only internal pipe roughness values or estimates of nodal demands until an agreement between observed and computed pressures and flows is obtained. Generally speaking, the basis for this claim is that unlike pipe lengths, diameters, and tank levels, which are directly measured, pipe roughness values and nodal demands are typically estimated, and thus have room for adjustment. Numerous factors, however, can contribute to disagreement between model and field observations. Any and all input data that have uncertainty associated with them are candidates for adjustment during calibration to obtain reasonable agreement between modelpredicted behavior and actual field behavior. In the case of water quality models, a match between some observed and predicted water quality parameter such as chlorine or fluoride concentrations is usually used for calibration purposes. However in the case of nonconservative species such as chlorine not only are systemwide concentrations dependent upon the network hydraulics, but they are a function of any reactions that take place in the system. Clearly one can see that calibrating for water quality can greatly increase the level of effort required to obtain a suitable match between observed and computer predicted performance (Walski, 2003). A discrepancy found during the calibration process can also mean that the system itself has problems. A review of the system should be done before any changes are made to rationally developed model data. Possible system problems are large leaks, previously undetected errors in the metered consumption, errors in recorded pipe sizes, unknown throttled or closed valves, worn pump impellers, or old construction debris left in pipes. Also, discrepancies between the model and observed values are not always a sign of model inaccuracies. Even though data may have come from a SCADA system with several digits of precision, it should not be assumed that the data are accurate to that level. 7.2 Calibration approach
The most challenging part of calibrating a model is making judgments regarding the adjustments that must be made to the model to bring it into agreement with field results. This section introduces methods for making these calibration judgments. The following is a sevenstep approach that can be used as a guide to model calibration described by Ormsbee and Lingireddy (Pérez, 2003):
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a.
Identify the intended use of the model
Identifying the intended use of the model (pipe sizing, operational studies, design studies, water quality studies) is the first and most important step because it helps the designer establish the level of detail needed in the model, the nature of the data collection, and the acceptable level of tolerance for errors between field measurements and simulation results. Water quality and operational studies require an extendedperiod analysis; whereas some design studies may be performed using a steadystate analysis. b. Determine estimates of model parameters
In most models some degree of uncertainty is associated with several parameters. Parameters to be estimated are those that are less likely to be measured and change within time. Special emphasis will be put on pipe roughness and node demand factors but these could be generalized to pump curves or valves coefficients. Initial estimates of pipe roughness values may be obtained using average values from literature but this information’s specific applicability decreases significantly as the pipes age increases. To obtain initial estimates of roughness it is best to divide the water distribution system into composite zones that contain pipes of similar material and age. c. Collect calibration data
The most common types of data are those for flow rate, tank water level and pressure. Depending on the level of instrumentation and telemetry, much of the data may already be collected as part of normal operations. Data collection plays an important role in managing water distribution systems. The main aim of the field data collection planning exercise is to determine what, when, under what conditions, and where to observe the behavior of the system and collect data that, when used for calibration, will yield the best results. This is what is known as a sampling design problem. Depending on the flow conditions being simulated, the model will have different reactions to different types of data changes. For most water distribution systems, the Hydraulic Gradient Line (HGL) throughout the system (also referred to as the piezometric surface) is fairly flat during averageday demand conditions. The reason for these small headloss is that most systems are designed to operate at an acceptable level of service during maximum day demands while accommodating fire flows. As a result, the pipe sizes are usually large enough that averageday headloss are
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small. For this reason, calibration during average conditions does not provide much information on roughness coefficients and water use. Average conditions do, however, provide insights into boundary conditions and node elevations. During periods when flows through the system are high, such as peak hour flows, pipe roughness and demand values play a much larger role in determining systemwide pressures. Therefore, pipe roughness values, and to a lesser extent demands, should be adjusted during periods of high flow to achieve model calibration. d. Evaluate model results based on initial estimates of model parameters
Using collected data the model can be evaluated, different simulators are available (see Chapter 4). The evaluated pressures, flows and tank water levels are then compared with the observed values in attempt to assess model accuracy, and large discrepancies can be addressed simply by looking at the nature and location of differences between the model results and the field data. e. Perform a roughtuning or macrocalibration analysis
During macrocalibration the major errors and mistakes are removed. A human normally performs this task. If measured values are different from the modeled values by an amount significantly excessive, the cause for the difference probably extends beyond errors in the estimates for either pipe roughness or demands. The typical causes are inaccurate plant models such as pumps and reservoirs, incorrect network topology, and incorrect boundary conditions. The only way to adequately address such errors is to systematically review the data associated with the model and compare them with the field data. This stage of calibration is normally done manually using some common sense rules (WSS, 1998). But it can be timeconsuming and require skill and judgment. An automatic system could carry out the macrocalibration that concerns the topological and crude errors in the model, or at least could support the task of the experts. In order to perform macrocalibration automatically, the knowledge has to be organized. An expert system allows the diagnosis of errors and finding their causes. Another approach would be the classification of the errors for correction. This automatic system is presented in (Pérez, 2003). f. Perform a sensitivity analysis
Next, a sensitivity analysis can be conducted to judge how performance of the calibration changes with respect to parameter
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adjustments. For example, if pipe roughness values are globally adjusted by 10 percent, the modeler may notice that pressures do not change much in the system, thus indicating that the system is insensitive to roughness for that demand pattern. Alternatively, nodal demands may be changed by 15 percent for the same system, causing pressures and flows to change significantly. In this case, time may be more wisely spent focusing on establishing good estimates of system demands. If neither roughness coefficients nor demands have a significant impact on system heads, then the velocity in the system may be too low for the data to be useful for this purpose. g. Perform a finetuning or microcalibration analysis
The parameters to be adjusted in this final phase of calibration are pipe roughness and nodal demands. Historically, most attempts at model calibration have employed an empirical or trialanderror approach which can be timeconsuming, particularly if there are a large number of pipes or nodes that are candidates for adjustment. Several researchers have proposed different algorithms for use in automatically calibrating hydraulic network models. Most of these techniques have been restricted to steadystate calibration. These techniques have been based on the use of analytical equations, simulation models and optimization methods. In addition to these standards, the AWWA Engineering Computer Applications Committee (AWWA, 1999) posted some calibration guidelines on its web page. However, each modeling application is unique and requires its own unique set of calibration requirements. 7.3 Calibration methods
Several procedures were developed for hydraulic network calibration, based on analytical and simulation model methods. More recently, different techniques that solve the problem using an optimization procedure were proposed. Model calibration has been a manual task by adjusting the uncertain model parameters on a trialanderror basis. Because many potential combinations of calibration parameters exist, finding the best set of parameters presents a challenge to the modeler. Therefore, by using a computerbased techniques the modeler can calibrate the system much more efficiently and consistently to achieve as close a match as possible to the field data. Generally, calibration methods can be grouped into the following categories:
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Direct method: This method is the simplest one and is used when the pipe’s roughness is the only unknown parameter and the demands and pressures are measured for all the nodes in the network (as it is the case for “Toulon Est” network) and, hence, the pipe’s headloss and flow are known for all the pipes. For each pipe, the pipe roughness is computed directly from the headloss equation (DarcyWeisbach formula, HazenWilliams formula, or ChezyManning formula) where the unknown parameter is the pipe’s roughness. Trialanderror method (Iterative method): This method is based on some specifically developed, iterative, trialanderror procedures. Networks that have a small numbers of calibration parameters can be effectively handled. To reduce number of calibration parameters for large network the simplification of the network is typically necessary (Ormsbee, 1986). The convergence rate of the iterative methods is rather slow. However, these iterative procedures are the fundamental principles and guidelines regarding water distribution calibration were used to develop more sophisticated calibration techniques as a result. Explicit methods (hydraulic simulation methods): is based on solving an extended set of steadystate, massbalance, and energy equations. The extended set consists of the initial set of equations; those normally used in network simulation models, augmented by a set of equations derived from available head and flow measurements (one additional equation per measurement), and it is solved numerically. The number of unknown calibration parameters is limited by the number of available measurements, so when the number of unknown calibration parameters is larger than the number of available measurements (underdetermined problem), the number of calibration parameters must be reduced by grouping. Explicit calibration methods have several disadvantages and limitations. The calibration problem must be evendetermined; that is, the number of calibration parameters must be equal to the number of measurements. Measurement errors are not taken into account and it is difficult to quantify the uncertainty of the estimated calibration parameters (Ormsbee, 1986). Implicit methods (optimization methods): consists of optimizationbased methods. In this case, the calibration problem is represented as an optimization problem by introducing an objective function. The problem is solved implicitly, usually by minimizing the objective function, errors. Errors are calculated as differences between measured and output variables computed by the hydraulic model. Hydraulic models linked to optimization methods are steadystate
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models (single or multipledemand condition), extendedperiod simulation models, or unsteady (transient) models. Transient equations in such cases are much more complicated, especially for huge networks from which their use is not generally extended in simulation, optimization and, generally, in water management procedures (Ormsbee, 1989). Since the calibration problem could be treated as an optimization one (Meredith, 1983) and (Pérez, 2003), in the recent years, much research has been directed to developing global optimization methods for automatic calibration of the conceptual models as well as hydrodynamic models. The solution of optimization problem was extensively discussed by many authors in the past. However, the proposed numerical algorithms can be classified into the following categories: GaussNewton, Gradient search, and Direct search methods. The direct search method is not very used because the rate of the convergence is generally slow. In the GaussNewton method and its variations it is necessary to compute the sensitivity matrix (Jacobian) of the state variables with respect to the unknown parameters at each iteration of the nonlinear least square minimization. Gradient search method needs to compute the gradient vector of the objective function with respect to the unknown parameters, instead of the sensitivity matrix, that takes less computer time. Although they can require more iterations for convergence they are usually more efficient. In this respect, populationbased algorithms such as Genetic Algorithms (GA), Evolutionary Strategy (ES), and Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) have shown to be effective and efficient in locating global optimum of a model with respect to single objective calibration. One of the approaches to solve a global optimization problem that has become popular during the recent years is the use of the socalled Genetic Algorithms (GA). GA is a robust search paradigm based on the principles of natural evolution and biological reproduction. For optimizing calibration of a water distribution model, a genetic algorithm program first generates a population of trial solutions of the model parameters. A hydraulic solver then simulates each trial solution. The resulting hydraulic simulation predicts the junction pressures and pipe flows at a predetermined number of nodes (or data points) in the network. This information is then passed back to the associated calibration module. The calibration module evaluates how closely the model simulation is to the observed data, the calibration evaluation computes a “goodnessoffit” value, which is the discrepancy between the observed data and the model predicted pipe flows and junction pressures, for each solution. This goodnessoffit value is then assigned as the “fitness” for that solution in the GA.
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One generation produced by the GA is then complete. The fitness measure is taken into account when performing the next generation of the GA operations. To find the optimal calibration solutions, fitter solutions will be selected by mimicking Darwin’s natural selection principal of “survival of the fittest”. The selected solutions are used to reproduce a next generation of calibration solutions by performing genetic operations. Over many generations, the solutions evolve, and the optimal or near optimal solutions ultimately emerge. The integration of GIS and hydraulic modeling software, offers many additional capabilities of analysis and data management. The benefits of the integration are quite evident. The modeler can save a lot of time in constructing a network model making use of all the potential that the GIS offers when it comes to data management, manipulation and analysis. GISRed is an extension to ESRI’s ArcView GIS software that integrates the widely used hydraulic modeling software EPANET 2.0 and a calibration module based on a GA, along with all the original GIS functions. This “builtin” application was originally conceived to make water distribution network models, and be used besides, to perform complex tasks such as importing a whole or partial network from an external source, creating a hydraulic network model and automatically calibrating it. The modeling of the water network using optimization techniques for the parameter estimation may have convergence problems unless macrocalibration is performed first to remove crude errors. Models can be calibrated using one steadystate simulation, but the more steadystate simulations for which calibration is achieved, the more closely the model will represent the behavior of the real system. At a minimum, a steadystate calibration should be performed for a range of demand conditions. To improve results further, the model should be calibrated for timevarying conditions using an extendedperiod simulation. In Chapter 4, the software packages that provided calibration tools are listed in Table 4.1. No further information on these calibration tools such as the algorithms and methods used is available. These were simply the result of the developers not offering any (or insufficient) information (WSS, 2000). 7.4 State estimation of water network
The physical water network behavior is monitored through a telemetry system. However only a limited number of flows and heads are measured directly and they do not constitute a complete picture of the System State. It is therefore necessary to estimate unknown variables based
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on available measurements and mathematical models of the network (Pérez, 2003). The concept of State Estimation has a long history and occupies a central position in modern control theory. The state can be expressed as the values of given variables. In traditional system description, the number of variables must be equal to the number of equations, and the state is determined as the values of the variables exactly fulfill the equations. In practices however, the number of variables often is not equal to the number of equations. Microcalibration process belongs to a class of State Estimation problems (Pérez, 2003). The network model is assumed to be represented by flow continuity equations and by pipe flowheadloss characteristics. Some parameters appear in the equations, such as roughness and demand factors. The state estimation problem assumes that these parameters are known so that a model of the network is available. If all of these parameters are not known they will have to be estimated as well and the problem becomes a generalized one, a state and parameter estimation. The calibration process of a network includes the measurement of physical parameters but some parameters have to be estimated. These are generally roughness of pipes and demand distribution factors; this is the state and parameter estimation problem. The main difference between variables and parameters is that the latter are constant in time, assuming a determined time horizon. 7.5 Observability and identifiability of water network
Observability is a property of the coupling between the state and the output. A linear system is observable at t if x(t) can be determined from the output function y(t0,t) (or output sequence) for t0≤t, where t is some finite time. If this is true for all t and x(t) it is called completely observable (Pérez, 2003). Full observability means that the values of all variables are known. A problem common to all calibration approaches deals with identifiability. The problem of identifiability occurs when an underdetermined calibration problem is being solved. An undetermined calibration problem is when the number of calibration parameters is larger than the total number of independent observations. Similar difficulties may occur even for evendetermined or overdetermined problems, that is, when there are at least as many observations as calibration parameters. Difficulties occur because the set of available observations simply fails to provide sufficient information for determination of one or more calibration parameters, for example, pressure monitoring points may not be properly located to enable identification of all or some of the parameters (Pérez,
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2003). The identification problem tries to determine parameters such as roughness and demand coefficients, which are constant (they change in a large period of time). Also it tries to determine the necessary meters that have to be installed in order to have a good calibration but not to increase the cost unnecessarily. When parameters are estimated, identifiability substitutes observability concept. Problems associated with identifiability can be overcome by grouping unknown parameters, for example, pipe roughness coefficients for all pipes that share the same material, diameter, age, and location, or by increasing the quantity of observed information through additional field measurements. Grouping is based on the assumption that pipes laid in roughly the same time period with the same material will have the same roughness properties. Grouping greatly reduces the identifiability problem, but it may introduce errors if the pipes and nodes in a given group should not have the same adjustments applied. As more measurements are available, namely outputs, the calibration will be possible or easier and more robust. The variables not measured; flows, heads, boundary flows, demands, demand factors and roughness have to be treated as parameters to be determined and a large number of such unmeasured parameters reduce the identifiability of the system. As the parameters of the network (roughness and demand factors) are constant in time they relate measurements taken in different timesteps. That means that if the same measurements are taken more than once the number of unknown variables increases but not as the number of equations does. So a system that is not identifiable with just one timestep can become identifiable if some timesteps are included. The interest of using more than one timestep in the measurement makes necessary the generalization of the identifiability conditions. The identifiability study should determine; which are the variables that have to be measured, how many timesteps must be taken into account, and which are the conditions in each timestep that make all these measurements useful for the calibration. Water network’s models are in general nonlinear, only in special cases where all heads or flows are measured it will become linear. The approximation by Taylor series drives to the use of Jacobian to study the identifiability of the network (Pérez, 2003). 7.6 Problem formulation for network calibration
From a mathematical point of view, the calibration or parameters identification is an inverse problem, because measurements of state variables are used to determine the unknown parameters by fitting the model output with measurement. However, the optimization methods for
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calibration search for a solution describing the unknown calibration parameters that minimizes an objective function, while simultaneously satisfying constraints that describe the feasible solution region. The objective function usually minimizes the sum of the squares of differences between observed and modelpredicted heads and flows. The total equation number is n = np+nn, where np is the number of pipes, and nn is the number of nodes. In the forewarned problem nodal demands are known and the problem unknowns are nodal heads and pipe flows. They are n, as the equations. We saw in Chapter 5 that these equations represent an algebraic nonlinear system of equations, and can be written as:
f i (x 1 , x 2 , … , x n ) = 0
i = 1, 2, ..., n
(Eq. 7.1)
The unknowns x1, x2,…, xn are nodal heads and pipe flows. System (Eq. 7.1) can be solved using NewtonRaphson technique. The Jacobian matrix of this system is:
⎡ ⎢ ⎢ ⎢ ⎢ ⎢ ⎢ ⎣ ∂ f1 ∂x1 ... ... ∂fn ∂x1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ∂ f1 ∂x n ... ... ∂fn ∂x n ⎤ ⎥ ⎥ ⎥ ⎥ ⎥ ⎥ ⎦
A =
(Eq.
7.2)
In a calibration problem the network geometry is known, but nodal demands and pipes roughness are unknowns and named calibration parameters. Since function fi of system (Eq. 7.1) depends from the calibration parameters, the system can be written as:
f i (p, x) = 0
i = 1, 2, ..., n
(Eq. 7.3)
In which p= (p1, …, pnc) is the vector of the calibration parameters. For solving a calibration problem, it is necessary to have some measurements, likes pipe flows or nodal heads. As said, calibration objective is to choose system parameters so that the differences between observed and computed values are as small as possible. If the vector of those unknown parameters is given as p (roughness, demand), the objective function may be given as:
Min f ( p) =
∑
N
i =1
wi x
[
* i
− xi (p )
]
2
(Eq. 7.4)
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Where: f(p) p N wi x i* xi (p) = objective function to be minimized = vector of unknowns = number of observations = weighting factors = observation (head, flow) = model predicted system variable (head, flow)
The set of constraints associated with this problem are implicit hydraulic constraints (continuity and energy loss relationships), known initial conditions (device statuses and tank levels), and boundary conditions (reservoir levels). Rather than explicitly incorporating the equations of conservation of mass and energy into the optimization routine, later approaches have simply called out to a standard hydraulic simulation program to evaluate the hydraulics of the solution. Then the solution is passed back to the optimization routine, where the algorithm computes the objective function, evaluates the constraints, and, if necessary, updates the decision variables. New values of the decision variables are then passed to the simulation routine, and the process is repeated until an acceptable calibration is obtained. 7.7 FINESSE for automatic network calibration
The Water Software Systems (WSS) group in Leicester proposed a microcalibration procedure where the calibration problem is implemented in GAMS programming language to solve the optimization problem. The nonlinear programming solver called CONOPT is called by GAMS to solve the calibration problem. However, the FINESSE calibration module was developed for the purpose of WaterMain project in 1998 to calibrate the Trévaresse network at SCP. This module is not yet robust nor generic and need to be improved; thus it has been removed from the current version of FINESSE. As users of FINESSE, we can not modify its codes nor add new module to its interface. For these reasons, we looked for another calibration tool. EPANET software was selected because its computational engine can be customized. In addition it is easy to be used and free. EPANET Programmer’s Toolkit is a dynamic link library (DLL) of functions that allow developers to customize EPANET’s computational engine for their own specific needs. The functions can be incorporated into 32bit Windows applications written in C/C++, Delphi Pascal, Visual Basic, or any other language that can call functions within a Windows DLL. There are over 50 functions that can be used to open a network description file, read and modify various network
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design and operating parameters, run multiple extended period simulations accessing results as they are generated or saving them to file, and write selected results to file in a userspecified format (EPA website). 7.8 Calibrating “Toulon Est” network
This section aims to present an automatic trialanderror calibration approach of the pipe roughness using EPANET software and to apply it to “Toulon Est” network. For this intention, a visual basic macro was written in MS Excel to perform the calibration process using extendedperiod measurements of the flows and pressures available from the SCADA system at SCP’s control center. This macro is linked to a simulation model for “Toulon Est” network that was built in EPANET simulation software. The macro will be called here “EPAXL Calibrator” and it will be presented in the following section. This calibration work is divided into two parts: Part#1: Singleperiod calibration Part#2: Extendedperiod calibration 7.8.1 “EPAXL Calibrator” approach
Now, I will present the automatic trialanderror calibration approach used in this work to calibrate the pipes roughness for “Toulon Est” network using EPAXL Calibrator. The calibrator is a visual basic macro created in MS Excel. This macro is linked to EPANET software and its function is to prepare the extendedperiod calibration data (flows and pressures) and export those to the simulation model created in EPANET for the case in hand and it triggers the simulation process and then sends the simulated pressures back to excel and compares them to the measured pressures. The hydraulic head lost by water flowing in a pipe due to friction with the pipe walls can be computed using one of three different formulas (Rossman, 2000): DarcyWeisbach formula HazenWilliams formula ChezyManning formula The DarcyWeisbach formula is the most theoretically correct (Rossman, 2000). It applies over all flow regimes and to all liquids, and it is usually used at SCP to calculate the headloss and hence for these raisons it will be used in this work. DarcyWeisbach formula uses the following
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equation to compute headloss between the start and end node of the pipe:
hf =
Where: hf Q D L f
8 fL × Q2 2 5 gπ D
= pipe headloss (m) = pipe flow (m3/s) = pipe diameter (m) = pipe length (m) = DarcyWeisbach friction factor
( Eq .
7 .5 )
In Chapter 5 (see section 5.3) we introduced Colebrook equation that expresses the friction factor as a function of relative roughness and Reynolds number (Re) and we saw that there are many implicit and explicit forms for this equation. EPANET uses different methods to compute the friction factor ( f ) depending on the flow’s Reynolds Number (Re): 1. The Hagen–Poiseuille formula is used for laminar flow (Re < 2,000).
f = 64 Re ( Eq . 7 .6 )
2. Or by a cubic interpolation from the Moody Diagram is used for transitional flow (2,000 < Re < 4,000). 3. The Swamee and Jain approximation to the ColebrookWhite equation is used for fully turbulent flow (Re > 4,000).
f = 0 . 25 ⎡ 5 . 74 ⎛ ε ⎢ Log ⎜ 3 . 7 D + Re 0 .9 ⎝ ⎣
Re = 4Q πD ν
⎞⎤ ⎟⎥ ⎠⎦
2
( Eq .
7 .7 )
( Eq .
7 .8 )
( ν ) is the water kinematic viscosity and it equals to 1.0x 106 m2/s at 20 °C. ( ε ) is the pipe roughness in mm and this is the calibration parameter. EPAXL Calibrator has two options for the pipe roughness calibration; Option #1 assumes that all the pipes have the same roughness (ε), and Option #2 assumes that the pipes have different roughness values.
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A) Option #1: All the pipes have the same roughness We simplify the problem by assuming that the roughness is the same for all the pipes. The calibration problem is treated as optimization problem where the objective function is that the residuals between measured and simulated pressures are as small as possible. If the pressure is measured at (N) nodes in the system over an extended period (T), the objective function can be given as:
Minimize R (ε ) =
∑∑
N
T
i =1 t =1
Ps ( i , t ) − Pm ( i , t )
(Eq .
7 .9 )
Where: R(ε ) = objective function to minimize (Residual). ε = unknown variable (Roughness). Pm = measured pressure. Ps = simulated pressure. N = number of nodes at which the pressures are measured. T = length of the extended period. The set of constraints associated with this problem are continuity and headloss equations. The calibration module attempts to find the roughness at which R(ε) is minimal, and we will call this value as ε optimal. The problem is solved by iteration on ε such that for each value of ε the calibrator will send this value to EPANET and the nodes pressures are evaluated. Then the solution is passed back to the calibration module, where the objective function R(ε) is evaluated. To initiate the calibration process we have to define the minimum and maximum value of ε, and also the increment by which the roughness will grow throughout the calibration process (εminimum, εmaximum, and εincrement). When the objective function is evaluated for all values of ε, the R(ε)minimal and thus ε optimal are determined and then the average of the absolute differences between the simulated and measured pressures ( Δ P ), standard error (σ), and confidence interval (C.I.) are evaluated at ε optimal. The calibration approach is shown in the schema of Figure 7.1. Furthermore, this approach and module described here to calibrate “Toulon Est” network can be used to calibrate pipe roughness for any network. B) Option #2: Pipes have different roughness values In this option we calibrate the pipes such that each pipe has its own roughness ε and of course this is closer to the reality than assigning a
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unique value for all the pipes. For this purpose, the same approach described in the previous paragraph and in Figure 7.3 is applied. But in this case the procedure is executed for each pipe instead of executing it only once for all the pipes as in the first option. However, EPAXL Calibrator is able to do this task automatically. In Option#1 the initial roughness is set to ε i = ε minimum at the beginning of the iteration process, but in this option the calibrator randomly generates and assigns roughness for each pipe within the predefined constrains: ε minimum ≤ ε ≤ ε maximum, this could reduce the time required to find a solution. Then the procedure in Figure 7.1 is repeated for each pipe and at the end of the iteration new εvalues are obtained. For each iteration, the new εvalues are compared to the εvalues obtained from the previous iteration and if the εvalues do not change any more then the process is terminated and an optimal solution is found. EPAXL Calibrator approach will be applied to “Toulon Est” network to calibrate its mainline roughness and for this purpose a simulation model for the “Toulon Est” mainline was built in EPANET simulation software and it will be introduced in the next section. On the 1st February 2006 the SCP’s Maintenance Division has performed two field measurements test on this network in order to estimate the evolution of the mainline roughness of “Toulon Est”. The results of these field measurements tests will be presented, and then the same field measurements will be provided to EPAXL Calibrator to validate the approach presented here above and the results of this calibration also will be presented, commented on and compared with the SCP results. 7.8.2 Schematic diagram of the mainline of “Toulon Est” network
The mainline of “Toulon Est”, dated from 1970s, is composed of steel pipe approximately 43 km in length and 1,250 mm to 700 mm in diameter. The water flows under gravity through these pipes. The network has been presented in Chapter 2 of this thesis. All the hydraulic measurements of “Toulon Est” necessary for the calibration and their locations on the mainline are described and indicated in Table 7.1 and Figure 7.2.
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Figure 7.1 : Calibration approach for pipe roughness
Input
EPANET Network Model Extended period demand flows (Q) Extended period measured pressures (Hm)
ε bounds: ε minimum ε maximum ε increment
Calibration Module
Start Set: i = 1 , R(ε)minimal = ∞ , ε i = ε minimum Export the extended period demands to EPANET Set Roughness = ε i for all pipes Run EPANET and get extended period simulated pressures Evaluate the objective function R(ε i) Check R(ε i)<= Rminimum ? No
Yes
R(ε)minimal = R(ε i) ε optimal = ε i
ε i+1 = ε i + ε increment
i=i+1 No Check ε i > ε maximum ? Yes Stop
Output
(ε optimal , Δ P =
R( ε optimal ) N×T
, C.I. )
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7.8.3
Part#1: Singleperiod calibration
In this part we will use a singleperiod (or a steadystate) field measurements to estimate the pipes roughness. Table 7.1 : Description of hydraulic measurements of “Toulon Est”
Symbol Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10 P q1 , q2 Description Total flow entering the system (m3 /s) CEO company water demand (m3/s) Pierrascas tank inflow (m3 /s) La Bastidette water demand (m3 /s) Fenouillet tank inflow (m3 /s) Mont Redon tank inflow (m3 /s) Golf Hôtel tank inflow (m3 /s) La Pascalette water demand (m3 /s) Trapan dam inflow (m3 /s) La Môle water demand at Point M Pressure measurements on the mainline ( bar) Water demand taken directly from the mainline Comment Measured Measured Measured Measured Measured Measured Measured Measured Measured Measured Measured Non Measured
Figure 7.2 : Schematic diagram of the mainline of “Toulon Est” network
Les Laures
Q1
Pierrascas
Q3 P P
Fenouillet
Golf_Hôtel Trapan
Q7 P Q9
Mont Redon
Q5 Q6
La Môle
M
Q10
A
P
B
Q2
C
P
E
Q4
F
P
G
P
H
P
K
Q8 q1
T
P q2
CEO
La Bastidette
La Pascalette
Legend:
Node q NonMeasured Q Water P Pressure
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7.8.4
SCP’s Maintenance Division calibration tests
The Maintenance Division has performed two field measurements tests on “Toulon Est” network. For the purpose of the tests, water was delivered only to the following consumption points: Point H (Golf Hôtel), Point T (Trapan), and Point M (La Môle). The pressure measurements were made at the following points: A, C, E, F, G, H, K, and T. The SCP’s Maintenance Division computes pipe roughness by using a preprepared commercial excel sheet, named “CLAVAL SIZING SOFTWARE” and developed by CLAVAL CompanyUK (SCP’s Maintenance Division). It uses DarcyWeisbach formula (Eq. 7.5) to compute pipe headloss and the friction factor ( f ) is calculated from an implicit commercial formula:
f = 0 . 25 ⎡ ⎢ Log ⎣ ⎛ ε 2 . 51 ⎜ ⎜ 3 . 7 D + Re ( f + 0 . 00001 ⎝ ⎞⎤ ⎟⎥ ⎟ ⎠⎦
2
( Eq .
7 . 10 )
)0 .5
The water kinematic viscosity ( ν ) used to calculate Reynolds Number from (Eq. 7.8) and the acceleration of gravity (g) are set by default to 1.3 x 106 m2/s (at 10 °C) and 10.0 m/s2 respectively. For the purpose of this calibration, we changed these values to be the same as those used in EPANET software (ν =1.0x 106 m2/s at 20 °C, g = 9.82 m/s2 where these values are more realistic). The solution finding procedure is not automatic. For each pipe, the user has to manually change the cell assigned for pipe roughness, and the friction factor and, hence, headlosses are computed. Then the user compares the computed headloss with the headloss obtained by field measurement. This process is repeated until the computed headloss is equal to the headloss obtained by field measurement. The results obtained by this procedure for each test are summarized here after. Test#1_SCP Table 7.2 : Flow measurements during Test#1_SCP
Date and Time 1 February 2006 10:10 AM  11:30 AM
st
Average Flow (l/s) Q_Point H = 504 l/s Q_Point T = 570 l/s Q_Point M = 0 l/s Q_Total = 1,074 l/s
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Table 7.3 : Calibration results for Test#1_SCP
Pipe AC CE EF FG GH HK KT Q (l/s) 1,074 1,074 1,074 1,074 1,074 570 570 L (m) 3,063 2,714 4,000 2,264 3,774 4,786 7,414 DN (mm) 1,250 1,050 1,050 900 900 700 700 Pup (m) 20.98 195.48 237.64 248.67 255.01 250.10 231.23 Pdown (m) 195.48 237.64 248.67 255.01 250.10 231.23 142.52 Hf (m) 2.52 5.93 7.81 9.30 14.10 20.70 29.45 ε_SCP#1 (mm) 3.79 4.61 3.11 2.42 1.69 2.34 1.72
Test#2_SCP Table 7.4 : Flow measurements during Test#2_SCP
Date and Time 11:30 AM  12:55 PM 1st feburary 2006 Average Flow (l/s) Q_Point H = 0 l/s Q_Point T = 360 l/s Q_Point M = 400 l/s Q_Total = 760 l/s
Table 7.5 : Calibration results for Test#2_SCP
Pipe AC CE EF FG GH HK KT Q (l/s) 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 L (m) 3,063 2,714 4,000 2,264 3,774 4,786 7,414 DN (mm) 1,250 1,050 1,050 900 900 700 700 Pup (m) 21.11 196.99 241.81 256.90 267.67 269.95 234.55 Pdown (m) 196.99 241.81 256.90 267.67 269.95 234.55 122.31 Hf (m) 1.14 3.27 3.75 4.87 6.91 37.23 52.98 ε_SCP #2 (mm) 2.57 6.33 2.64 2.83 1.54 2.45 1.80
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7.8.5
EPAXL Calibrator results
An EPANET simulation model was built for the “Toulon Est” mainline shown in Figure 7.2, then EPAXL Calibrator was executed to calibrate the pipes roughness. The EPAXL Calibrator performed: a steadystate calibration (singleperiod hydraulic analysis) using the field measurements for Test#1, a steady state calibration using the field measurements for Test#2, and a calibration using the field measurements for both Test#1 and Test#2. For these calibrations, we set the roughness bounds such that: (εminimum =0.05 mm) ≤ εoptimal ≤ (εmaximum =10.0 mm) εincrement =0.05 mm. For each calibration, in order to estimate the confidence interval for the pipe roughness we carried out a stochastic analysis. From the pressures measurements we randomly generate new pressures values (Pr) such that: P m  σ ≤ Pr ≤ P m + σ Where: Pm Pr σ = measured pressure (m) = randomly generated pressure (m) = standard error of the pressure device (m)
The accuracy of the pressure device is about ± 1.0 m, this equals to 3σ, thus σ = 0.3 m. Each time new pressure values generated, EPAXL uses these values to find new roughness values. This procedure is repeated 20 times, and hence 20 values for the roughness are obtained for each pipe and the confidence interval is estimated from these values. The optimal solution (εvalues) and the results of this analysis are summarized in the following tables:
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Test#1_EPAXL Table 7.6 : Calibration results for Test#1_EPAXL
Pipe AC CE EF FG GH HK KT ε_EPAXL#1 (mm) 3.50 6.00 2.70 2.30 1.60 2.35 1.70 C.I. 0.13 0.18 0.12 0.14 0.10 0.14 0.10
Test#2_EPAXL Table 7.7 : Calibration results for Test#2_EPAXL
Pipe AC CE EF FG GH HK KT ε_EPAXL#2 (mm) 2.55 6.35 2.85 2.60 1.50 2.55 1.70 C.I. 0.11 0.13 0.08 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.12
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Test#1 and Test#2_EPAXL Table 7.8 : Calibration results for Test#1 and Test#2_EPAXL
Pipe AC CE EF FG GH HK KT ε_EPAXL (mm) 4.35 6.25 2.15 2.45 1.45 2.50 1.75 C.I. 0.20 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.19 0.17 0.21
Figure 7.3 : ε_values computed by EPAXL
7
ε_EPAXL# 1
6
ε_EPAXL# 2 ε_EPAXL
Roughness (mm)
5
4
3
2
1
0
Pipe AC
Pipe CE
Pipe EF
Pipe FG
Pipe GH
Pipe HK
Pipe KT
7.8.6
Calibration results discussion
We will discuss and comment on the calibration results in the following manner:
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A) First we will compare the εvalues of Test#1_SCP to the εvalues of Test#2_SCP. B) Then we will compare the εvalues of the Test#1_EPAXL to the εvalues of Test#2_EPAXL. Some remarks on A and B will be made. C) Then we will compare the εvalues of Test#1_SCP to the εvalues of Test#1_EPAXL. D) Then we will compare the εvalues of Test#2_SCP to the εvalues of Test#2_EPAXL. Some remarks on C and D will be made. E) And then we will discuss and comment on the calibration results and the errors and discrepancies between Test#1 and Test#2 and between SCP and EPAXL results; if there is any. A) Differences between ε_SCP#1 and ε_SCP#2 The εvalues of Test#1_SCP (ε_SCP#1 in Table 7.3) were different from the εvalues of Test#2_SCP (ε_SCP#2 in Table 7.5) and the differences (ε_SCP#2  ε_SCP#1) are calculated for each pipe section as a percentage of ε_SCP#1, and also the average roughness of the two tests are calculated (έ_SCP): Table 7.9 : Differences between ε_SCP#1 and ε_SCP#2
Pipe AC CE EF FG GH HK KT ε_SCP #1 ε_SCP #2 Difference έ_SCP (mm) (mm) (%) (mm) 3.79 2.57 32.2 3.18 4.61 6.33 37.3 5.47 3.11 2.64 15.1 2.88 2.42 2.83 16.9 2.63 1.69 1.54 8.9 1.62 2.34 2.45 4.7 2.40 1.72 1.80 4.7 1.76
B)
Differences between ε_EPAXL#1 and ε_EPAXL#2
The same is applied on EPAXL where the εvalues of Test#1_EPAXL (ε_EPAXL#1 in Table 7.6) were different from the εvalues of Test#2_EPAXL (ε_EPAXL#2 in Table 7.7) and the differences (ε_EPAXL#2 ε_EPAXL#1) are calculated for each pipe section as a percentage of ε_EPAXL#1, and also the average roughness of the two tests are calculated (έ_ EPAXL):
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Table 7.10 : Differences between ε_ EPAXL#1 and ε_ EPAXL#2
Pipe AC CE EF FG GH HK KT ε_EPAXL#1 ε_EPAXL#2 Difference έ_EPAXL (mm) (mm) (%) (mm) 3.50 2.55 27.1 3.03 6.00 6.35 5.8 6.18 2.70 2.85 5.6 2.78 2.30 2.60 13.0 2.45 1.60 1.50 6.3 1.55 2.35 2.55 8.5 2.45 1.70 1.70 0.0 1.70
•
Remarks on (A) and (B)
For both A and B the differences are plotted on Figure 7.4. One can see that the differences between εvalues of Test#1_SCP and those of Test#2_SCP are considerable and they lie between 4.7% and 37.3%. The εvalues for Pipes: AC, EF, and GH decreased, while for Pipes: CE, FG, HK, and KT the εvalues increased. On the other hand, because the same field measurements were used in EPAXL different εvalues were obtained but the differences between εvalues of Test#1_EPAXL and those of Test#2_EPAXL are less and they lie between 0.0% and 27.1%. The εvalues for Pipes: AC and GH decreased, while for Pipes: CE, EF, FG, HK, and KT the εvalues increased. Figure 7.4 : Differences between ε_values of Test#1 and Test#2
40
ε_SCP
30
ε_EPAXL
20
Difference (% )
10
0
Pipe AC
Pipe CE
Pipe EF
Pipe FG
Pipe GH
Pipe HK
Pipe KT
10
20
30
40
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C) Comparison between ε_SCP#1 and ε_EPAXL#1 The ε_values of EPAXL will now compared to those of SCP for Test#1 and then for Test#2. The differences between ε_SCP#1 and ε_EPAXL#1 (ε_SCP#1  ε_EPAXL#1) are calculated for each pipe section as a percentage of ε_SCP#1: Table 7.11 : Difference between ε_SCP#1 and ε_EPAXL#1
Pipe AC CE EF FG GH HK KT ε_SCP#1 (mm) 3.79 4.61 3.11 2.42 1.69 2.34 1.72 ε_EPAXL#1 (mm) 3.50 6.00 2.70 2.30 1.60 2.35 1.70 Difference (%) 7.7 30.2 13.2 5.0 5.3 0.4 1.2
D) Comparison between ε_SCP#2 and ε_EPAXL#2 The same as for Test#1, the differences between ε_SCP#2 and ε_EPAXL#2 (ε_SCP#2  ε_EPAXL#2) are calculated for each pipe section as a percentage of ε_SCP#2: Table 7.12 : Difference between ε_SCP#2 and ε_EPAXL#2
Pipe AC CE EF FG GH HK KT ε_SCP#2 (mm) 2.57 6.33 2.64 2.83 1.54 2.45 1.80 ε_EPAXL#2 (mm) 2.55 6.35 2.85 2.60 1.50 2.55 1.70 Difference (%) 0.8 0.3 8.0 8.1 2.6 4.1 5.6
•
Remarks on (C) and (D)
For both C and D the differences are plotted on Figure 7.5. One can see that the εvalues of EPAXL and SCP are not the same and the differences lie between 0.4% and 30.2% for Test#1, and between 0.3% and 8.1% for Test#2. Roughly speaking, the εvalues of EPAXL are less than those of SCP.
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Figure 7.5 : Differences between ε_values of SCP and EPAXL
35
Test # 1 Test # 2
25
15
D ifference (% )
5
5
Pipe AC
Pipe CE
Pipe EF
Pipe FG
Pipe GH
Pipe HK
Pipe KT
15
25
35
E)
Discussion and errors sources
Before passing judgment on EPAXL, let’s first consider the two field measurements and the results obtained by the SCP’s Maintenance Division. The two field measurements were made under controlled conditions and by the same team and with the same measuring devices (flowmeters and pressure sensors). According to the persons who carried out the tests, the main source of errors during the test is due to the accuracies of the measuring devices. The accuracies of the measuring devices are: Flowmeters: ±1.0% (Scale 4,000 l/s thus ±40 l/s). Pressure sensor ±0.5% (Scale 10 bar thus ±0.05 bar or ±0.5 m) at Point A. Pressure sensor ±0.5% (Scale 30 bar thus ±0.15 bar or ±1.5 m) at Points C, E, F, G, H, K, and T. The devices can be considered accurate. Even though, each test gave ε_values different from the other test as shown in (A) where the difference was up to 40%. For both tests, the calculated total headloss in the pipes were considered only due to the pipe friction and then they were used in DarcyWeisbach formula (Eq. 7.5) to calculate the pipe roughness. But in fact, the total headloss is composed of the friction headloss due to the pipe roughness and of the minor headloss due to the pipe fitting (elbows, tees,
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valves, etc). The same for EPAXL where in the simulation model for “Toulon Est” built in EPANET the pipe fittings are not considered and only the mainline pipe was modeled. Moreover, the pipe diameters used in these calculations are the nominal diameters of the steel pipes, but in fact a concrete lining was applied to the inner surface of the mainline pipe of “Toulon Est”. The thickness of this lining is estimated between 8 mm and 12 mm. The roughness obtained by the SCP’s Maintenance Division are computed by using a preprepared excel sheet and the formula of (Eq. 7.10) as we mentioned previously (see section 7.8.4). It is clear that this implicit formula is not the same as the explicit formula in (Eq. 7.7) used in EPANET software to compute the friction factor ( f ). To show how this causes some discrepancies between the calibration results of the SCP’ Maintenance Division and that of EPAXL Calibrator the following simulation are performed: 1. The εvalues of Test#1_SCP are passed to the EPANET model of “Toulon Est” and EPANET is executed and then the differences between the measured pressures (Pm) and simulated pressures (Ps_ε_SCP) are calculated. 2. The εvalues of Test#1_EPAXL are passed to the EPANET model of “Toulon Est” and EPANET is executed and then the differences between the measured pressures (Pm) and simulated pressures (Ps_ε_EPAXL) are calculated. 3. The εvalues of Test#2_SCP are passed to the EPANET model of “Toulon Est” and EPANET is executed and then the differences between the measured pressures (Pm) and simulated pressures (Ps_ε_SCP) are calculated. 4. The εvalues of Test#2_EPAXL are passed to the EPANET model of “Toulon Est” and EPANET is executed and then the differences between the measured pressures (Pm) and simulated pressures (Ps_ε_EPAXL) are calculated. The results of simulations (1) and (2) are shown in Table 7.13 and Figure 7.6, and the results of simulations (3) and (4) are shown in Table 7.14 and Figure 7.7. For each simulation the average of the differences between the measured and simulated pressures (average ∆P), standard error (σ), and confidence interval (C.I.) are computed. One can note that for both tests the simulated pressures using the εvalues of EPAXL (Ps_ε_EPAXL) are closer to the measured pressures (Pm) than the simulated pressures using the εvalues of SCP (Ps_ε_SCP) as shown in the figures and the tables. Moreover, we perceive that the Ps_ε_SCP is always less than the Pm and the deviation from Pm increases, almost exponentially,
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as we move downstream the mainline from Point A to Point K. In fact, this is because of that the εvalues of SCP passed to the simulation model are not computed by using the same formula in EPANET as we mentioned in the previous paragraph, and since these values are a little higher than those of EPAXL Calibrator the headloss are also a little higher in each pipe and this additional headloss accumulate as one moves downstream the mainline from Point A to Point K. Table 7.13 : Difference between measured and simulated pressures –Test#1
Point A C E F G H K T Pm (m) 20.98 195.48 237.64 248.67 255.01 250.10 231.23 142.52 (Pm)  (Ps_ε_SCP) (m) 0.00 0.07 0.10 0.15 0.21 0.26 0.32 0.44 0.19 0.14 0.10 (Pm)  (Ps_ε_EPAXL) (m) 0.00 0.05 0.46 0.18 0.08 0.08 0.01 0.04 0.13 0.15 0.10
Average ∆P = Stander error σ = Confidence Interval CI=
Figure 7.6 : Difference between measured and simulated pressures –Test#1
0.50
(Pm)  (Ps_ε_SCP) (Pm)  (Ps_ε_EPAXL)
0.40
Pressure Difference (m )
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
A
0.10
C
E
F
G
H
K
T
0.20
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Table 7.14 : Difference between measured and simulated pressures –Test#2
Point A C E F G H K T Pm (m) 21.11 196.99 241.81 256.90 267.67 269.95 234.55 122.31 (Pm)  (Ps_ε_SCP) (m) 0.00 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.12 0.27 0.54 0.84 0.24 0.30 0.21 (Pm)  (Ps_ε_EPAXL) (m) 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.51 0.16 0.11 0.18 0.12
Average ∆P = Stander error σ = Confidence Interval CI=
Figure 7.7 : Difference between measured and simulated pressures –Test#2
1.00
(Pm)  (Ps_ε_SCP) (Pm)  (Ps_ε_EPAXL)
0.80
P re s s u re D iffe re n c e (m )
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
A
0.20
C
E
F
G
H
K
T
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7.8.7
Part#2: Extendedperiod calibration
In this part we will perform an extendedperiod calibration to estimate the pipes roughness by using extendedperiod measurements of the flows and pressures available from the SCADA system at SCP’s control center for “ToulonEst” network. 7.8.8 Continuity equation
We will apply the continuity equation to the “Toulon Est” network; in other words, the total flow entering the network at Point A (Les Laures) must be equal to the total demands leaving the network. The continuity equation can be written like this:
Qin = Qout
⎫ ⎪ Where: ⎪ ⎬ (Eq. 7.11) Qin = Q1 ⎪ Qout = Q2 + Q3 + Q4 + Q5 + Q6 + Q7 + Q8 + Q9 + Q10 + (q1+ q2)⎪ ⎭
For the non measured demand q1 and q2 we do not have records for these demands, but however they are very small with respect to the other measured demands and thus they will be neglected in this calibration. Another parameter that doesn’t appear in the righthand side of (Eq. 7.11) is the “unaccountedfor water” (the portion of total consumption that is lost due to system leakage, unmetered services, or other causes). According to the SCP’s Maintenance Division this portion is approximately 8% of the total consumption. The calibration data that used here are the hourly measured flows (Q) and pressures (P) for three selected periods:  From 1st to 7th of April 2005.  From 1st to 7th of August 2005.  From 1st to 7th of October 2005. First of all, we will check the validity of the continuity equation (Eq. 7.11). Figure 7.8 shows the hourly Qin and Qout during these selected periods. Then, the differences between Qin and Qout (∆Q) are calculated and plotted in Figure 7.9. The average ∆Q is about 2.4 ± 2.3 l/s.
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Figure 7.8 : Hourly total water demand – Toulon Est, Year 2005
2.5 Qin Qout 2.0
Hourly demand (m3/s)
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1st to 7th of April 2005
1st to 7th of August 2005
1st to 7th of October 2005
Figure 7.9 : Differences between system inflows and outflows
0.08 0.06 0.04
∆Q = (Qout  Qin )
Average ∆Q=2.4 ∆Q C.I. =2.3 l/s
∆Q (m3/s)
0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08
1st to 7th of April 2005
1st to 7th of August 2005
1st to 7th of October 2005
7.8.9
Extendedperiod calibration approach
We will perform two extendedperiod calibrations using the demand flows and pressures for the previously mentioned periods. The first calibration is a direct approach and the second one is EPAXL Calibrator approach. A. Direct approach
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As one can see on the hydraulic schema of “Toulon Est” (Figure 7.2) the pressures are measured at the start and end node of each pipe (except for pipe KT and pipe TM where no pressure data is available at the SCP’s control center) and the pipe’s flow can be calculated from the continuity equation at each node. Therefore, the pipes can be calibrated easily. From the pressure measurement at the start and end node for a pipe we compute the total head at each node (node’s elevation + node’s pressure), and the difference between total head at the start and end node is the headloss in that pipe (hf). The roughness can be obtained in two manners: A.1 Linear regression Let’s rewrite DarcyWeisbach formula given by (Eq. 7.5) like this:
8 fL and the friction factor ( f ) is computed from gπ 2D 5 ColebrookWhite equation (Eq. 7.7) and it depends on the pipe flow (Q). However, for Reynolds Number Re > 25,000 and relative roughness (ε/D > 3.5 x 105) the ColebrookWhite equation can be reduced to:
hf = k Q2
+
e
( Eq .
7 .12 )
Where : k =
fˆ =
0 . 25 ⎡ ⎢ Log ⎣ ⎛ ε ⎞⎤ + 1 . 06 × 10 − 5 ⎟ ⎥ ⎜ ⎝ 3 .7 D ⎠⎦
2
( Eq .
7 . 13 )
(Eq. 7.7) is plotted against (Eq. 7.13) on Figure 7.10. The differences between friction factors computed by the two equations are less than ±3%. Figure 7.10 : Colebrook vs. simplified friction factor equations
0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05
f = 1.0008 fˆ R 2 = 0 .9998
f
0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
fˆ
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Thus, the friction factor is not anymore function of the pipe flow and if we perform linear regression between (hf) and (Q2) for each pipe, the slope k of (Eq. 7.12) can be estimated and, hence, the friction factor f and then the pipe roughness ε also can be estimated. The small e that appears in (Eq.7.12) is the intercept with the vertical abscissas (hf) and it must be zero in the ideal case. Linear regression results The linear regression and parameters estimation were carried out using the statistical analysis software “NCSS” (Hintze, 2005) and the results are summarized in Table 7.15. The headloss (hf) are plotted versus the pipe’s flows squared (Q2) for each pipe as shown on the figures below: Table 7.15 : Results for linear regression parameters estimation  2005
Pipe Pipe AB Pipe BC Pipe CE Pipe EF Pipe FG Pipe GH Pipe HK L (m) D (mm)
1,050 665 2,716 3,964 2,264 3,774 4,789 1,250 1,000 1,050 1,050 900 900 700
k (s2 /m5)
0.948 ± 0.023 1.717 ± 0.053 5.317 ± 0.125 7.239 ± 0.251 9.038 ± 0.291
f
0.033 0.031 0.030 0.028 0.029
ε_Reg_05 (mm)
8.44 ± 0.66 4.94 ± 0.53 4.76 ± 0.40 3.60 ± 0.47 3.24 ± 0.39 2.32 ± 0.29 3.17 ± 0.32
e (m)
2.767 ± 0.060 0.465 ± 0.081 0.718 ± 0.138 1.762 ± 0.217 0.777 ± 0.195 0.306 ± 0.245 0.765 ± 0.557
13.718 ± 0.432 0.026 71.570 ± 2.049 0.030
9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0
Figure 7.11 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe AB
hf (m)
5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
RSquared = 0.93
Q (m /s )
2
6
2
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Figure 7.12 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe BC
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0
hf (m)
4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
RSquared = 0.88
Q2 (m6/s2)
Figure 7.13 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe CE
15.0
13.0
11.0
9.0
hf (m)
7.0
5.0
RSquared = 0.93
3.0
1.0 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Q2 (m6/s2)
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Figure 7.14 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe EF
16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0
hf (m)
8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
RSquared = 0.86
Q2 (m6/s2)
Figure 7.15 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe FG
12.0
10.0
8.0
hf (m)
6.0
4.0
RSquared = 0.87
2.0
0.0 0.0 2.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
Q2 (m6/s2)
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Figure 7.16 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe GH
17.0 15.0 13.0 11.0
hf (m)
9.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
RSquared = 0.88
Q (m /s )
2
6
2
Figure 7.17 : hf vs. Q2 for Pipe HK
37.0
32.0
27.0
hf (m)
22.0
17.0
12.0
7.0
RSquared = 0.90
2.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5
3.0
Q2 (m6/s2)
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Discussion of linear regression results In the ideal case where the pressure and flow measurements are accurate then plotting (hf) versus (Q2) must perfectly fit a straight line whose intercept is equal zero. In practice, nothing is ideal and the measuring devices are not perfectly accurate and, hence, there are always errors in the measured parameters. As shown on the figures from the linear regression performed here, the points (hf, Q2) are not perfectly linear as Rsquared between 0.86 and 0.93, and the intercept (e) is not null. This mainly is because of the errors in the measured pressures and flows and also because of the fact that we did assume that the headloss are only due to the friction in the pipe and we ignored the loss due to pipe fittings. For Pipe AB, the intercept was significant (2.767 m) and the estimated roughness was high (8.44 ± 0.66 mm) and this is because in the reality there is an electromagnetic flowmeter, a butterfly control valve and filter in proximity to point A (see Figure 2.3) and the headloss in these device is important even it might be higher than the friction headloss. However, for Pipe FG and Pipe HK the intercepts were negtive and relativly small (0.777 ± 0.195 m for Pipe FG, and 0.765 ± 0.557 m for Pipe HK) and this might be explained by that the errors are more important than the fitting headloss in these two pipes. A.2 Equation inversion From DarcyWeisbach formula given by (Eq. 7.5) we can obtain:
gπ 2 D 5 h f f = × 2 8L Q
( Eq .
7 .14 )
Also, from the reduced ColebrookWhite equation (Eq. 7.13) we can obtain:
⎡ −0.ˆ5 ⎤ ⎢10 f − 1 .06 × 10 − 5 ⎥ ε = 3 .7 D ⎢ ⎥ ⎣ ⎦
Substitute (Eq. 7.14) in (Eq. 7.15) :
( Eq . 7 .15 )
⎡ ⎢ ε = 3 . 7 D ⎢10 ⎢ ⎢ ⎣
− 0 .5 gπ D 5 h f × 2 8L Q
2
⎤ ⎥ −5 − 1 . 06 × 10 ⎥ ⎥ ⎥ ⎦
( Eq .
7 . 16 )
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This inverted equation explicitly states pipe roughness (ε) as a function of pipe headloss (hf), flow (Q), length (L), and diameter (D). For each pipe and for each pair (hf, Q) from the extendedperiod measurements of the flows and pressures available from the SCADA system at SCP’s control center for the previously mentioned periods, a roughness value can be computed. Then, the average roughness and its confidence interval can be estimated for each pipe. The results are summarized in Table 7.16: Table 7.16 : Calibration results for equation inversion
Pipe Pipe AB Pipe BC Pipe CE Pipe EF Pipe FG Pipe GH Pipe HK ε_EqIn_05 (mm) 310.08 ± 28.16 24.53 ± 4.93 16.95 ± 3.83 17.22 ± 1.94 3.84 ± 1.22 7.10 ± 2.07 5.80 ± 1.90
The roughness values obtained by equation inversion are very large for Pipe AB, BC, CE, and EF; even they are not physically possible. This is not due to the equation inversion but it is due to the errors in the measured pressures and flows and also because we did assume that the headloss are only due to the friction in the pipe and we ignored the loss due to pipe fittings. The inverted equation (Eq. 7.16) is a mathematical solution for pipe roughness and considers the headloss and flow as being accurate. If we assume that the error in the measured pressures plus minor headloss for Pipe AB are roughly 2.0 m and we subtract this from the calculated headloss and recalculate the roughness, the recalculated roughness will be 70% less; i.e. ε = 93.74 mm instead of ε = 310.08 mm). Therefore, (Eq. 7.16) can be used only when the measurements are accurate enough. B. EPAXL Calibrator
EPAXL Calibrator was executed to perform an extendedperiod calibration using the demand flows and pressures records for the periods mentioned previously. For this calibration, we set the roughness bounds such that: (εminimum =0.1 mm) ≤ εoptimal ≤ (εmaximum =15.0 mm)
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εincrement =0.05 mm. As we did before and in order to estimate the confidence interval for the pipe roughness we carried out a stochastic analysis as described in section (7.9.2). B.1 EPAXL Calibrator results In this calibration, the time needed to find a solution is quite long because the size of the problem is relatively large as there are 7 nodes and 504 pressure measurements at each node, and 7 pipes and 300 possible values for the roughness for each pipe. It took about 8 hours to solve the calibration problem of “Toulon Est”. The pipes roughness values computed by EPAXL and their confidence intervals are listed in Table 7.17: Table 7.17 : Results for EPAXL Calibrator  2005
Pipe Pipe AB Pipe BC Pipe CE Pipe EF Pipe FG Pipe GH Pipe HK ε_EPAXL_05 (mm) 7.10 ± 0.38 11.15 ± 0.47 9.15 ± 0.47 6.80 ± 0.39 4.40 ± 0.21 2.60 ± 0.12 2.75 ± 0.12
B.2 Comparison between Calibrator results
linear
regression
and
EPAXL
The simulated pressures computed by using the roughness obtained from linear regression (ε_Reg_05) and the simulated pressures computed by using roughness obtained by EPAXL (ε_EPAXL_05) were compared to the measured pressures for each point and they are plotted on the figures below:
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Figure 7.18 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point B
162 161 160
Pressure (m)
159 158 157 156 155 154 153 152 P_Measured P_EPAXL P_Regression
April 2005
August 2005
October 2005
Figure 7.19 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point C
200 198 196
Pressure (m)
194 192 190 188 186 184 182 P_Measured P_EPAXL P_Regression
April 2005
August 2005
October 2005
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Figure 7.20 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point E
250 245
Pressure (m)
240
235
230
225
P_Measured P_EPAXL P_Regression
220
April 2005
August 2005
October 2005
Figure 7.21 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point F
270 265 260
Pressure (m)
255 250 245 240 235 230 225 220 P_Measured P_EPAXL P_Regression
April 2005
August 2005
October 2005
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Figure 7.22 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point G
290 280
Pressure (m)
270 260 250 240 230 220 P_Measured P_EPAXL P_Regression
April 2005
August 2005
October 2005
Figure 7.23 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point H
300 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 P_Measured P_EPAXL P_Regression
Pressure (m)
April 2005
August 2005
October 2005
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Figure 7.24 : Measured and simulated pressures at Point K
300 290 280
Pressure (m)
270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 P_Measured P_EPAXL P_Regression
April 2005
August 2005
October 2005
It can be seen that the simulated pressures are, generally speaking, higher than the measured pressures. However, the simulated pressures of EPAXL (PsEPAXL) are a bit closer to the measured one than those of linear regression (PsReg) and since this is not seen clearly on the figures hereabove we calculate delta (Δ) as:
Δ = P m  Ps_EPAXL P m  Ps_Reg ( Eq . 7 . 17 )
If delta is less than 1.0 this means that the PsEPAXL is the closest to the Pm and if delta is greater than 1.0 this means that the PsReg is closest to the Pm. As shown on Figure 7.25, the delta’s values are less than 1.0 in most cases. Figure 7.25 : Calculated delta’s values (Δ)
3
2
Δ
1 0
Point B
Point C
Point E
Point F
Point G
Point H
Point K
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7.9
General discussion and conclusion
From this calibration work we obtained four values for roughness for each pipe, which are:  The average roughness obtained by SCP’s Maintenance Division from the two field tests for year 2006 (έ_SCP in Table 7.9).  The average roughness obtained by EPAXL Calibrator of the two field tests for year 2006 (έ_EPAXL in Table 7.10)  The roughness obtained from linear regression for year 2005 (ε_Reg_05 in Table 7.15)  The roughness obtained by EPAXL for year 2005 (ε_EPAXL_05 in Table 7.17) These values are summarized in Table 7.18 and Figure 7.26: Table 7.18 : Summary of ε_values for calibration 2005 and 2006
Pipe Pipe AB Pipe BC Pipe CE Pipe EF Pipe FG Pipe GH Pipe HK Pipe KT ε_Reg_05 8.44 4.94 4.76 3.60 3.24 2.32 3.17 # ε_EPAXL_05 7.10 11.15 9.15 6.80 4.40 2.60 2.75 # έ_SCP_06 3.00 3.00 5.80 2.85 2.80 1.70 2.55 1.85 έ_EPAXL_06 3.03 3.03 6.18 2.78 2.45 1.55 2.45 1.70
Figure 7.26 : Comparison between the ε_values
12
ε_Reg._05 έ_SCP_06
10
ε_EPAXL_05 έ_EPAXL_06
Roughness (mm)
8
6
4
2
0
Pipe AB
Pipe BC
Pipe CE
Pipe EF
Pipe FG
Pipe GH
Pipe HK
Pipe KT
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One may ask “what are the true pipes roughness?”. In the singleperiod calibration (2006) we compute the roughness that satisfy only two field measurements while in the extendedperiod (2005) we compute the roughness that satisfy a widerang operation conditions, but the flows measurements were more accurate in the singleperiod calibration since the measurements were made under controlled conditions, and in the extendedperiod calibration the flows measurements are less accurate because of the unaccountedfor water which is around 8%. However, the maximum and minimum of these four values for roughness could give an idea about the range within which the true roughness falls. One must be careful when using pipe headloss hf to estimate the pipe roughness. The problem of hf is that the hf is computed such that: hf =(Pup + Zup) – (Pdown + Zdown) (Eq. 7.18)
Where Pup and Zup are the pressure and the elevation of the upstream node, and Pdown and Zdown are the pressure and the elevation of the downstream node. If we assume that the elevations are exact but the error in the pressure measuring device is about ±0.5 m and the headloss are around 1.65 m (pipe of L =1,000 m, D =1.0 m, ε =1.0 mm, Q =1.0 m3). If the errors committed in measuring Pup and Pdown have, luckily, the same magnitude and sign then the hf will be correct. However, if the error in measuring Pup is equal to +0.25 m and the error in measuring Pdown is equal to 0.25 m then the error in hf will be +0.50 m and this is about 30% of the computed parameter hf. Also, this calibration work shows how difficult is the calibration process of the hydraulic model for water pipe network; even for a simple network like “Toulon Est” network, where there is no loops and the state of the system is wellidentified (i.e. nodes demands and pressures and pipes flows are known in space and in time) and there is only seven parameters to be calibrated (roughness). However, when the system contains many pipes and loops and not only the pipes roughness are the calibration parameters but the nodes demand factors are to be calibrated too, and if there is a limited number of pressure and flow measurements in the system, then the calibration process is a real challenge to the modeler. Regarding EPAXL Calibrator, the algorithm presented here needs to be improved to be faster and more robust. Finally, the calibration process understands some choices and parameters that have an effect on this process, such as:  Headloss equation: DarcyWeisbach or Hazen –Williams equation?
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Pipe diameter: Nominal pipe diameter or inner pipe diameter? Water kinematic viscosity: 1.0 x 106 m2/s or 1.3 x 106 m2/s? Acceleration of gravity: 9.82 m/s2 or 10.0 m/s2? Pressure: 1.0 bar is 10.0 m or 10.2 m? Friction factor: implicit or explicit ColebrookWhite formula? Extended or single period calibration? Accuracy of the measuring devices? Node’s elevation: is the datum the bottom, the center line or the top of the pipe?  Minor and fitting headloss?  Calibration approach to be implemented?
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CHAPTER 8
8.
Demand Prediction
8.1
Introduction
The term “Prediction” or “Forecasting” is the estimation of the value of a variable or set of variables at some future point in time. A forecasting exercise is usually carried out in order to provide an aide to decisionmaking and planning the future. Typically all such exercises work on the premise that “if we can predict what the future will be like we can modify our behavior now to be in a better position, than we otherwise would have been when the future arrives”. However, forecasting techniques are applied in some of life’s domain, for example inventory control and production planning where forecasting the demand for a product enables to control the stock of raw materials and plan the production schedule, investment policy for forecasting financial information such as interest rates, exchange rates and the price of gold, economic policy for forecasting economic information such as the growth in economy, unemployment and the inflation rate, and water demand forecasting for effective water resources planning and management. All these forecasting exercises are vital both to government and business in planning the future (Opitz, 1998), (Baumann, 1998), and (Weigend, 1994). One way of classifying forecasting problems is to consider the timescale involved in the forecast, in other word, how far forward into the future we are trying to forecast. Short, medium and longterm are usual categories but the actual meaning of each will vary according to the situation that is being studied, for example in forecasting energy demand in order to construct power station 5 to 10 years would be shortterm and 50 years would be longterm, while in forecasting costumer water demand in many water distribution systems up to one month would be shortterm and over a couple of years longterm (Ani, 2003). The terms “Forecasting” and “Prediction” will be used alternatively throughout this chapter. 8.2 Water demand prediction Prediction of consumer demands is a prerequisite for water
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resources demands management and planning, and also for water optimal control of water supply and distribution systems. The main objectives of demand forecasting are management and conservation of natural water resources, and optimization of water supply (Guhl, 1999). A water utility’s primary purpose is to provide water to its customers, but it must also plan for its customers’ future water needs. A critical aspect of this planning is predicting shortterm, mediumterm, and longterm water demands and optimizing the water supply system to meet these demands and also managing water demands and supplies in the future. Moreover, understanding the magnitude and location of future water demands, and any potential changes from existing water demands, allows to develop recommendations that will meet or manage demands for water quantity and quality into the future (Ani, 2003). If changes in water demand can be predicted, the inflow can be changed in advance and the operation becomes more effective and efficient. For this reason, anticipation is often used to improve the control response. Making more efficient use of existing water resources through demand management is an economical and environmentally responsible way to meet growing demand for water. Water conservation is an important component of managing water demands and supplies in the future. Agricultural practices could achieve conservation at an onfarm level e.g., by reduction of applied water, and at a district level e.g., through such methods as canal lining, spill recovery, and automation (AWWA, 2001). Water demand forecasts are used in many areas of utility planning. These demand forecasts can contribute to identifying appropriate management alternatives in balancing supply and demand. From small utility models to longterm interstate resource management, reliable forecasts are critical components of water planning and policy. To be reliable, water demand forecasts must include social, economic, and environmental factors. The use of such forecasts has become standard, particularly when considering new water resource supplies. Forecasting water demand is inherently challenging, as the factors that most directly affect water demand are difficult to predict. Viewed in its simplest form, future water demands are a function of a region’s population, the growth or decline of its industrial activity, technological changes, code changes, water pricing, and changes in outdoor water use associated with weather and landscaping choices. Unforeseen events significantly impact these factors (Ani, 2003) and (Jowitt, 1992). Water demand forecasts are essential to many planning activities including expansion, expanding existing distribution systems, preparing contingency plans for droughts, evaluating conservation methods, performing sensitivity analysis using different assumptions about the explanatory variables, and assessing utility revenues (Ani, 2003). In
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addition to these applications, forecasts also play an important role in cases related to climate change where demand forecasts will be critical to providing information about the future of regional water resource demands and how they should be distributed. Today, water demand forecasting has become an essential ingredient in effective water resources planning and management. Water forecasts, together with an evaluation of existing supplies, provide valuable triggers in determining when, or if, new sources of water must be developed. However, the cost of securing new water supplies has grown dramatically (Ani, 2003). Forecasts also provide an opportunity to organize important utility information and demand data. With increasing acclaim and accuracy, demand forecasting may guide communities toward a more sustainable future in water resources. Demand forecasting became necessary as urban populations dependent on public water supplies grew rapidly. New demands for water could not always be met. In some cases, water infrastructure required long lead times to construct, requiring long planning horizons. In other cases, multiple options for water supply existed and the optimal choice depended on understanding likely future requirements. In either case demand forecasting was a means to optimize expansion of the water supply system (Opitz, 1998). Other water resource issues that would benefit from water demand forecasts include water conflicts. For example, California continues to struggle with limited state resources, a contract battle over the Colorado River and growing urban populations, demand forecasts are useful to decisions about water transfers, contract battles, and new techniques in water conservation in agriculture (Ani, 2003). Though water demand forecasts are rarely used as the only determining factor in resource planning, forecasts can prevent utilities from making needless investments and policy errors in development (AWWA, 2001). For the purpose of this thesis, we will focus on the water demand prediction for water distribution systems. In a typical water distribution system, the source of water might be a lake, river, underground well or canal. Water is delivered to the distribution system either by gravity or pumped directly form the source to the distribution system or is pumped to reservoirs at a number location in the system and then is pumped from the reservoirs to the distribution system, or to another reservoir. Pressures and rates of flow throughout the system can be controlled by means of pumps and valves housed in pumping station. The human operator, who controls the operations of the distribution system, uses sometimes heuristics or rule of thumb to optimize the water supply. Documenting the heuristics of the most experienced expert operators in an expert system is one way to reduce
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operating costs and improve the supply and distribution of water. In order to develop an expert system for monitoring and control of the water distribution system, we conduct knowledge acquisition through interviews with human experts and obtained heuristics for effective water utility operations. Analysis of these heuristics indicates that it is important that shortterm forecasts of water demand is accurately estimated in order that the optimization of water supply and effective operation may be derived. The inaccurate demand estimations by the experience of the experts possibly results in insufficient operations of the water distribution system, and the lack of knowledge on water demand prediction translates to a gap in the knowledge base of the expert system and, thus, manual knowledge acquisition by itself is inadequate for handling all situations that may arise in a complex engineering application (An, 1995). Therefore, resource engineers have developed predictive models that guide our management of water supply and demand. Predictive models have become commonplace in all phases of planning, providing resource managers guidance for the various possible futures (Law, 2000). The goal is to create a predictive model that appropriately captures the uncertainty of the future and guides decision making. Forecast models are primarily dependent on the data available and the model’s intended use. The complexity of a model hinges on the level of detail in the data required by the model. However, a more complex model is not always more appropriate. Water demand models can have various timesteps: long (annual or decadal), medium (monthly to annual), or short term (hourly, daily, or weekly) (AWWA, 1996). For the purposes of this study, we focus on shortterm models, more precisely daily demand prediction. Water resource engineers commonly use the past as a guide to the future, planning as if events that have not occurred are unlikely to occur. However, the future’s uncertainty has required planners to predict water demand two or three decades into the future. Past, longterm forecasts have allowed resource managers to be generous in their estimates of water demand. Longterm water demand modeling is a difficult task; it requires robust data sets and consideration of uncertain climate, economic, and cultural conditions. Therefore, water resource managers felt the professional responsibility to generate demands that were unlikely to be exceeded. For example, during the postWorld War II years, resource managers and planners typically chose the largest feasible project. While population and the economy grew, such decisions were justifiable (DeKay, 1985). Now, however, we find population growth more stable and significant environmental considerations. These changes have caused many water resource managers to rethink longterm demand planning. Longterm models are helpful for supply planning, reservoir or urban
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infrastructure changes (i.e., water mains, transfer pipes, etc.), extended conservation programming or plumbing code changes, and regional urban planning and development. Unlike shortterm models, longterm water demand models do not contribute to nearterm or seasonal operations’ policies regarding drought, instream flows, or climate variability. Instead, longterm models provide extended foresight for resource managers to address overall system capacity and management (Bauman., 1998). Longterm models usually focus on forecasts for 10 or more years into the future. These models help managers determine longterm infrastructure or supply changes while considering variables such as changes in population, price structure, or climate change. While these forecasts are critical to future management, such forecasts are often highly uncertain. Of course, the greater the forecast time (i.e., 30 years, 40 years), the less accurate the forecast or predictive variables tend to be. Unlike the longterm vision of the decadal model, the mediumterm model typically investigates periods of less than one year. These models may be used to examine the impacts of climate variability and planned seasonal operations or financial changes. Mediumterm models are often quite accurate, but may be plagued by unexpected changes in weather or sociologic factors. Shortterm demand projections help water managers make more informed water management decisions to balance the needs of water supply, residential, industrial, and agricultural demands, and instream flows for fish and other habitat. Shortterm demands aid utilities in planning and managing water demands for nearterm events (Jain, 2002). Shortterm forecasting can also help managers make decisions during unexpected climate conditions, emergencies, or unanticipated financial change. Shortterm forecasting models are typically based upon recent trends and actual conditions. Shortterm method of modeling water demands plays an important role in seasonal water resource management techniques (Bauman, 1998) and (Billings, 1996). The shortterm model demonstrates the importance of several independent variables: temperature, precipitation, and water use. A longterm model often uses additional household characteristics such as income, size (number of people), house age, housing density (number per km2), water price, etc. These variables are more likely to change on an annual or decadal basis, whereas the shortterm model accounts for data variation within a shorter timeframe. Most longterm water demand models refer to a handful of standard model variables from the most influential categories: population, economy, technology, climate, water price, conservation, housing characteristics, and landuse (AWWA, 1996). Moreover, in the water demand forecasting one should consider the methods by which water is distributed to the users. In water distribution
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systems, there are three water delivery methods which can be distinguished according to the degree of freedom given to the water users in choosing the flow rate, duration, and frequency of water delivery. Clemmens (1987) describes various water delivery schedules, with their intended flow rate, duration, and frequency:  Proportional water distribution: this method consists in distributing water in proportion to the size of supplied area or to the water rights. This method is applied in Pakistan and India and known as “Warabandi”.  Rotational schedule water distribution: in this method, the users get water according to a preprepared rotation schedule. It has very little or no flexibility built into it, and the flow rate, duration, and frequency are therefore fixed. This method is the simplest for the managers, but the most rigid for the users, and it is the most popular one in the world. This method is applied in the Jordan Valley.  Ondemand water distribution: this method allows the users to get water when they want, and thus the flow, duration, and the frequency are flexibles. Only the value of the maximum flow is fixed. This method is particularly applied to the pressurized networks as in Canal de Provence Company in France. Generally speaking, the estimation of the future demand will depend on the method by which water is distributed to the users. 8.3 Prediction methodology and techniques
While predicting the future is impossible, there are wide range techniques for thinking about what might happened, and how we can influence that. More than one hundred and thirty principles are used to summarize knowledge about forecasting. They cover formulating a problem, obtaining information about it, selecting and applying methods, evaluating methods, and using forecasts. Each principle is described along with its purpose, the conditions under which it is relevant, and the strength and sources of evidence (Armstrong, 2001). Statisticians spend much time on the development of methods for timeseries forecasting. According to Fildes and Makridakis (Fildes, 1995), few statisticians even address whether their models can be applied to forecasting (Fildes, 1995). In their survey of the literature, they estimated that about 21% of the timeseries papers addressed forecasting issues.
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When they looked at the timeseries forecasting papers published in the Journal of the American Statistical Association from 1971 to 1991, only about 10% looked at outofsample forecast accuracy, and only 11% made forecasting comparisons against reasonable alternative approaches (Yurkiewicz, 2004). In general, forecasting methods can be classified into three different categories: • Qualitative method Where there is no formal mathematical model, often because the data available is not enough to be representative of the future longterm forecasting. Qualitative methods rely on judgment, intuition, and subjective evaluation (Ernest, 2001). Among the major techniques within this category are market research (surveys), Delphi (panel consensus), historical analogy, and management estimation (guess). Not everyone has estimation talent; however, some studies have shown that a mathematical technique, consistently followed, will lead to better results than the “expert modification” of those forecasts. Nonetheless, many mathematical techniques need significant quantities of historical data that may not be available. When substantial data are lacking, subjective management judgment may be the better alternative. • Connectionist methods This method is commonly known as “Artificial Neural Networks ANN” which is a branch of artificial intelligence. ANNs are types of information processing system whose architectures are inspired by the structure of human biological neural systems (Refenes, 1994). They concentrate on machine learning which was based on the concept of selfadjustment of internal control parameters. The ANN environment consists of five primary components; learning domain, neural nets, learning strategies, learning process, and analysis process. The data used in the model to train neural networks are historical recorded data. Combining the learning capabilities of neural networks and time series techniques and using wavelet decomposition technique to explore more details of the time series signals. The wavelet transform has its roots in the Fourier transform. Typical neural network models are closely related to statistical models. However, high noise, high nonstationarity time series prediction is fundamentally difficult for these models. A wide range of interesting applications of ANNs has been investigated; it can be applied in pattern recognition, to diagnosing problems, in decision making and optimization, for design and planning, for management, and can be also applied for prediction or forecasting. The behavior of complex systems has been a broad application domain for neural networks. In particular, applications such as electric load forecasting, economic forecasting, and forecasting
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natural and physical phenomena have been widely studied (Grino, 1992), (Metaxiotis, 2003), (Dillon, 1991), and (Refenes, 1994). • Time series methods methods of this type are concerned with a variable that changes with time and which can be said to depend only upon the current time and previous values that it took ( i.e. independent on any other variables or external factors). Time series methods are especially good for shorttime forecasting where the past behavior of a particular variable is a good indicator of its future behavior at least in the shortterm (Franmlin, 1986) and (Weigend, 1994). The typical example here is shortterm demand forecasting for a water distribution system. The time series method uses different technique to forecast the future variable such as: moving average, exponential smoothing, and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (BoxJenkins approach). In this thesis we will consider only the time series method for forecasting the water demand for the system being studied here. 8.4 Time series methods
The term “univariate time series” refers to a time series that consists of single (scalar) observations recorded sequentially over equal time increments (Brockwell, 1991 and 1996). Time series forecasting methods are widely used in business situations where forecasts of a year or less are required. Classically, researchers approach the problem of modeling a time series by identifying four kinds of components. These four components are known as Seasonality, Trend, Cycling, and Residual (AbuMostafa, 1996). The Seasonal variation in a time series is the repetitive pattern observed over some time horizon (day, month, year, etc). The Trend is the increase or decrease in the series over a long period of time. For this reason is also known as the longterm trend. The Cyclical variation is the wavelike up and down fluctuations about the trend, and it is not tied to the seasonal variation. Lastly, the Residual effect is what remains, having removed the Trend, Cycling and Seasonal components of a time series. It represents the random error effect of a time series, caused by events as widespread wars, hurricanes, strikes and randomness of human actions.
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The foundation of time series analysis is stationarity (Ruey, 2002). A stationary time series has a constant mean, a constant variance and autocovariances (or autocorrelations), which depend only upon the difference in the time index and not on their location in time. A nonstationary time series is a time series in which one or all of these conditions are not satisfied. A stationary time series is generated by a process that remains the same over time. Thus, the mean, variance, and autocovariances are all independent of time. 8.4.1 Autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF)
The correlation coefficient between two random variables X and Y is defined as:
Rx , y
Cov( X , Y ) = Var( X ) ×Var(Y )
=
∑ [ (x
t =1 T
T
t
− x )( yt − y ) ]
( Eq. 8.1 )
2
∑ (x
t =1
t
− x)
∑( y
t
− y)
2
Where x and y are the mean of X and Y, respectively, Cov(X,Y) is the covariance of X and Y, Var(X) and Var(Y) are variance of X and Y, respectively. It is assumed that the variances exist. This coefficient measures the strength of linear dependence between X and Y, and it can be shown that −1 ≤ Rx,y ≤ 1 and Rx,y = Ry,x . The two random variables are uncorrelated if Rx,y = 0. In addition, if both X and Y are normal random variables, then Rx,y = 0 if and only if X and Y are independent. • Autocorrelation function (ACF) Time series data often exhibits something called autocorrelation. This means that observations are not independent one from another. Consider a stationary series rt, when the linear dependence between rt and its past values rt−i is of interest, the concept of correlation is generalized to autocorrelation. The correlation coefficient between rt and rt−l is called the lagl autocorrelation of rt and is commonly denoted by ρl, which under the weak stationarity assumption is a function of lagl only. Specifically, we define:
ρl =
Cov ( rt , rt − l ) Cov ( rt , rt − l ) γ l = = Var ( rt ) γ0 Var ( rt ) Var ( rt − l )
( Eq. 8.2 )
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Where the property Var(rt) = Var(rt−l) for a stationary series is used. From the definition, we have ρ0 = 1, ρl = ρ−l, and −1 ≤ ρl ≤ 1. In addition, a stationary series rt is not serially correlated if and only if ρl = 0 for all l > 0. Stationary series applications often require to test that several autocorrelations of rt are zero. Autocorrelation plots are a commonlyused tool for checking randomness in a data set. In addition, autocorrelation plots are used for model identification in ARIMA BoxJenkins model. • Partial autocorrelation function (PACF) The partial autocorrelation at lag l is the measure of the strength of correlation between rt and rtl that is not accounted for by lags 1 through (l 1). Partial autocorrelation plots are a commonlyused tool for model identification in ARIMA BoxJenkins model, specifically in identifying the order of an autoregressive model. • White noise A time series rt is called a white noise if rt is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables with finite mean and variance. In particular, if rt is normally distributed with mean zero and variance σ2, the series is called a Gaussian white noise. For a white noise series, all the ACFs are zero. In practice, if all sample ACFs are close to zero, then the series is a white noise series. 8.4.2 Simple autoregressive models
The fact that rt has a statistically significant lag1 autocorrelation indicates that the lagged rt−1 might be useful in predicting rt. A simple model that makes use of such predictive power is:
rt = φ
0
+ φ 1 rt − 1 + a t
( Eq. 8.3 )
Where a t is assumed to be a white noise series with mean zero and variance σa², Φ0 and Φ1 are model parameters. This model is in the same form as the wellknown simple linear regression model in which rt is the dependent variable and rt−1 is the explanatory variable. In the time series literature, Model (Eq. 8.3) is referred to as a simple autoregressive (AR) model of order 1 or simply an AR(1) model. A straightforward generalization of the AR(1) model is the AR(p) model:
rt
= φ 0 + φ 1 rt − 1 + ... + φ p rt − p + a t
( Eq. 8.4 )
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Where p is a nonnegative integer and a t is defined in (Eq. 8.3). The AR(p) model is in the same form as a multiple linear regression model with lagged values serving as the explanatory variables. 8.4.3 Simple movingaverage models
We now turn to another class of simple models that are also useful in modeling stationary time series. These models are called movingaverage (MA) models. There are several ways to introduce MA models. One approach is to treat the model as a simple extension of white noise series. Another approach is to treat the model as an infiniteorder AR model with some parameter constraints. In adopting the second approach, there is no particular reason, but simplicity, to assume a priori that the order of an AR model is finite. We may entertain, at least in theory, an AR model with infinite order as:
rt = φ 0 + φ 1 rt − 1 + φ 2 rt − 2 + ... + a t
( Eq. 8.5 )
However, such an AR model is not realistic because it has infinite many parameters. One way to make the model practical is to assume that the coefficients Φis satisfy some constraints so that they are determined by a finite number of parameters. A special case of this idea is:
rt = φ 0 − θ 1 rt − 1 − θ 12 rt − 2 − θ 13 rt − 3 − ... + a t
( Eq. 8.6 )
Where the coefficients depend on a single parameter θ1 via Φi =− θ 1i for i ≥ 1. For the model in (Eq. 8.6) to be stationary, θ1 must be less than one in absolute value; otherwise, θ 1i and the series will explode. Because  θ1  < 1, we have θ 1i → 0 as i → ∞. Thus, the contribution of rt−i to rt decays exponentially as i increases. This is reasonable as the dependence of a stationary series rt on its lagged value rt−i, if any, should decay over time. The model in (Eq. 8.6) can be rewritten in a rather compact form. To see this, rewrite the model as:
rt + θ 1 rt − 1 + θ 12 rt − 2 + ... = φ 0 + a t
The model for rt−1 is then:
( Eq. 8.7 )
rt − 1 + θ 1 rt − 2 + θ 12 rt − 3 + ... = φ 0 + a t − 1
( Eq. 8.8 )
Multiplying (Eq. 8.8) by θ1 and subtracting the result from (Eq. 8.7), we obtain:
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rt = φ 0 (1 − θ 1 ) + a t − θ 1 a t − 1
( Eq. 8.9 )
Which says that except for the constant term rt is a weighted average of shocks at and at−1. Therefore, the model is called an MA model of order 1 or MA(1) model for short. The general form of an MA(1) model is:
rt = c
0
+ a
t
− θ
1
a
t −1
( Eq. 8.10 )
Where c0 is a constant and at is a white noise series. Similarly, an MA(q) model is:
rt = c 0 + a t − θ 1 a t −1 − ... − θ q a t − q
8.4.4 Simple BoxJenkins ARMA model
, where q > 0 ( Eq. 8.11 )
In some applications, the AR or MA models discussed in the previous sections become cumbersome because one may need a highorder model with many parameters to adequately describe the dynamic structure of the data. To overcome this difficulty, the autoregressive movingaverage (ARMA) models are introduced; known as BoxJenkins ARMA model (Box, 1994) and (Ruey, 2002). A general ARMA(p, q) model is in the form:
rt = φ 0 +
∑
p
i =1
φ i rt − i + a t −
∑
q
θ ia
i =1
t−i
( Eq. 8.12 )
Where at is a white noise series and p and q are nonnegative integers. The AR and MA models are special cases of the ARMA(p, q) model. • Nonstationary time series Many real time series do not satisfy the stationarity conditions stated earlier for which ARMA models have been derived. Then these times series are called nonstationary and should be reexpressed such that they become stationary with respect to the variance and the mean. One of the methodologies that can be used to make a nonstationary time series stationary is to apply a difference operator to a data series. However, differencing can sometimes reduce a nonstationary series to stationarity. Differencing once or twice is often enough. The BoxJenkins model assumes that the time series is stationary. Box and Jenkins recommend differencing nonstationary series one or more times to achieve stationarity. Doing so produces an ARIMA model, with the “I” standing for “Integrated”.
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8.4.5
ARIMA model
ARIMA processes have been studied extensively and are a major part of time series analysis. They were popularized by George Box and Gwilym Jenkins in the early 1970s (Box, 1994). The acronym ARIMA stands for AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average. In fact, the easiest way to think of ARIMA models is as finetuned versions of random walk and randomtrend models. Lags of the differenced series appearing in the forecasting equation are called autoregressive terms, lags of the forecast errors are called moving average terms, and a time series which needs to be differenced to be made stationary is said to be an integrated version of a stationary series. Randomwalk and randomtrend models, autoregressive models, and exponential smoothing models (i.e., exponential weighted moving averages) are all special cases of ARIMA models. A nonseasonal ARIMA model is classified as an ARIMA(p,d,q) model where:  p is the number of nonseasonal autoregressive terms,  d is the number of nonseasonal differences, and  q is the number of nonseasonal moving average terms. Seasonality Some time series exhibits certain cyclical or periodic behavior. Such a time series is called a seasonal time series. If seasonality is present, it must be incorporated into the time series model. BoxJenkins models can be extended to include seasonal autoregressive and seasonal moving average terms. Although this complicates the notation and mathematics of the model, the underlying concepts for seasonal autoregressive and seasonal moving average terms are similar to the nonseasonal autoregressive and moving average terms. The most general ARIMA BoxJenkins model includes difference operators, autoregressive terms, moving average terms, seasonal difference operators, seasonal autoregressive terms, and seasonal moving average terms. A seasonal ARIMA model is classified as an ARIMA(p,d,q)x(P,D,Q)S model, where P = number of seasonal autoregressive terms (SAR), D = number of seasonal differences, Q = number of seasonal moving average terms (SMA), S = number of seasons. 8.4.6 BoxJenkins Model Identification
1) Identifying the order of differencing (d) The first and most important step in fitting an ARIMA model is the determination if the series is stationary and if there is any significant
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seasonality, and then to determine the order of differencing needed to stationarize the series. Stationarity and seasonality can also be detected from an autocorrelation plot. Specifically, nonstationarity is often indicated by an autocorrelation plot with very slow decay. Normally, the correct amount of differencing is the lowest order of differencing that yields a time series which fluctuates around a welldefined mean value and whose autocorrelation function (ACF) plot decays fairly rapidly to zero, either from above or below. Integrated component (d) is usually 0, 1, or 2. The integrated component is simply 0 if the raw data are stationary to begin with, 1 if there is a linear trend, or 2 if there is a quadratic trend. Higher positive values are possible but very rarely useful. 2) Identifying the numbers of AR (p) and MA (q) terms Once stationarity and seasonality have been addressed and a time series has been stationarized by differencing, the next step is to determine whether AR or MA terms are needed to correct any autocorrelation that remains in the differenced series. The primary tools for doing this are the autocorrelation plot and the partial autocorrelation plot.  AR and MA signatures: If the PACF displays a sharp cutoff while the ACF decays more slowly (i.e., has significant spikes at higher lags), we say that the stationarized series displays an “AR signature”, meaning that the autocorrelation pattern can be explained more easily by adding AR terms than by adding MA terms. In principle, any autocorrelation pattern can be removed from a stationarized series by adding enough autoregressive terms (lags of the stationarized series) to the forecasting equation, and the PACF tells you how many such terms are likely be needed. However, this is not always the simplest way to explain a given pattern of autocorrelation: sometimes it is more efficient to add MA terms (lags of the forecast errors) instead. The autocorrelation function (ACF) plays the same role for MA terms that the PACF plays for AR terms, that is, the ACF tells you how many MA terms are likely to be needed to remove the remaining autocorrelation from the differenced series. If the autocorrelation is significant at lag l but not at any higher lags; i.e. if the ACF “cuts off” at lag l this indicates that exactly k MA terms should be used in the forecasting equation. In the latter case, we say that the stationarized series displays an “MA signature” meaning that the autocorrelation pattern can be explained more easily by adding MA terms than by adding AR terms. In practice, the sample autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions are random variables and will not give the same picture as the theoretical functions. This makes the model identification more difficult. In
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particular, mixed models can be particularly difficult to identify. Although experience is helpful, developing good models using these sample plots can involve much trial and error. For this reason, in recent years informationbased criteria such as FPE (Final Prediction Error) and AIC (Aikake Information Criterion) and others have been preferred and used. These techniques can help automate the model identification process. These techniques require computer software to use (Ruey, 2002).
8.4.7 Smoothing methods
A time series is a sequence of observations, which are ordered in time. Inherent in the collection of data taken over time is some form of random variation. There exist methods for reducing of canceling the effect due to random variation. A widely used technique is “smoothing” (Brown, 1962). This technique, when properly applied, reveals more clearly the underlying trend, seasonal and cyclic components. It is used to filter random “white noise” from the data, to make the time series smoother or even to emphasize certain informational components contained in the time series. There are two distinct groups of smoothing methods: Averaging Methods and Exponential Smoothing Methods. • Moving averages (MA) The bestknown forecasting methods is the moving averages or simply takes a certain number of past periods and add them together; then divide by the number of periods. Simple Moving Averages is effective and efficient approach provided the time series is stationary in both mean and variance (Brockwell, 1991). The following formula is used in finding the moving average of order n, MA(n) for a period t+1:
+ rt 1 + ... + rt  n +1 ) ( Eq. 8.13 ) n Where n is the number of observations used in the calculation. The forecast for time period t + 1 is the forecast for all future time periods. However, this forecast is revised only when new data becomes available. rt +1 =
• Weighted Moving Average (WMA) They are widely used where repeated forecasts requireduses methods like sumofthedigits and trend adjustment methods. A weighted moving average is: r t + 1 = w 1 .r t + w
2
(rt
.r t 1 + … + w
n
.r t  n + 1
( Eq. 8.14 )
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Where the weights (w) are any positive numbers such that: w1 + w2 + …+wn = 1 • Exponential Smoothing One of the most successful forecasting methods is the exponential smoothing (ES) techniques. Moreover, it can be modified efficiently to use effectively for time series with seasonal patterns. An ES is an averaging technique that uses unequal weights; however, the weights applied to past observations decline in an exponential manner (Pollock, 1999).  Single Exponential Smoothing: It calculates the smoothed series as a damping coefficient times the actual series plus 1 minus the damping coefficient times the lagged value of the smoothed series. The extrapolated smoothed series is a constant, equal to the last value of the smoothed series during the period when actual data on the underlying series are available. While the simple moving average method is a special case of the ES, the ES is more parsimonious in its data usage. The forecasting formula is the basic equation:
Ft + 1 = α rt + (1  α ) Ft
Where: rt Ft α t
( Eq. 8.15 )
= actual value = forecasted value = smoothing factor, which ranges from 0 to 1 = current time period.
This can be written as:
Ft +1 = Ft + α ε t
( Eq. 8.16 )
Where (εt) is the forecast error (actual  forecast) for period (t). In other words, the new forecast is the old one plus an adjustment for the error that occurred in the last forecast. A small (α) provides a detectable and visible smoothing. While a large (α) provides a fast response to the recent changes in the time series but provides a smaller amount of smoothing. An exponential smoothing over an already smoothed time series is called doubleexponential smoothing. In some cases, it might be necessary to extend it even to a tripleexponential smoothing, and the resulting set of equations is called the “HoltWinters (HW)” method after the names of the inventors. While simple exponential smoothing requires
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stationary condition, the doubleexponential smoothing can capture linear trends, and tripleexponential smoothing can handle almost all other time series.
8.5 Evaluating the accuracy of forecasting
All forecasting models have either an implicit or explicit error structure, where error is defined as the difference between the model prediction and the “true” value. Using any method for forecasting one must use a performance measure to assess the quality of the method. The most straightforward way of evaluating the accuracy of forecasts is to plot the observed values and the onestepahead forecasts in identifying the residual behavior over time. The widely used statistical measures of error that can help us to identify a method or the optimum value of the parameter within a model are:
a. Mean absolute error (MAE): is the average absolute error value. Closer this value is to zero the better the forecast is
=
MAE
∑
N
X N
i=1
i
 Fi
( Eq. 8.17 )
b. Mean squared error (MSE): is computed as the sum (or average) of the squared error values. This is the most commonly used lackoffit indicator in statistical fitting procedures. As compared to the mean absolute error value, this measure is very sensitive to any outlier; that is, unique or rare large error values will impact greatly MSE value.
=
MSE
∑ (X
i=1
N
i
 Fi
)2
( Eq. 8.18 )
N
c. Mean Relative Percentage Error (MRPE): The above measures rely on the error value without considering the magnitude of the observed values. The MRPE is computed as the average of the Relative Absolute Percentage Error (RAPE) values:
RAPE
t
= 100 ×
X t − Ft Xt
( Eq. 8.19 )
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d. Correlation coefficient and RSquared: Correlation is one of the most common and most useful statistical techniques which can show whether and how strongly pairs of variables are related. The main result of a correlation is called the correlation coefficient (or “R”). A correlation coefficient is a single number and it ranges from (1.0) to (+1.0). The closer R is to +1 or 1, the more closely the two variables are related. Recall that the Rsquared value is the square of the correlation coefficient.
R =
∑ (X
N i=1
i
− X
)(F
N
i
− F
i
)
− F
∑ (X
N i=1
i
− X
)
2
∑ (F
i=1
)
( Eq. 8.20 )
2
e. DurbinWatson statistic: quantifies the serial correlation of serial correlation of the errors in time series analysis and forecasting. DW statistic is defined by:
D  W Statistic =
∑ (e
i= 2
n
i n
−
e i −1 )
2 i
2
∑e
i =1
( Eq. 8.21 )
Where ei is the i error. DW takes values within [0, 4]. For no serial correlation, a value close to 2 is expected. With positive serial correlation, adjacent deviates tend to have the same sign; therefore DW becomes less than 2; whereas with negative serial correlation, alternating signs of error, DW takes values larger than 2. For a forecasting where the value of DW is significantly different from 2, the estimates of the variances and covariances of the model’s parameters can be in error, being either too large or too small.
8.6 Forecasting softwares
th
An interesting forecasting software survey appeared in December 2004 showed that the number of tools for planning and forecasting on the market is very large and their variety confusing (Yurkiewicz, 2004). Look at the forecasting softwares market, the level of maturity and stability of products and their features has reached “steadystate”. Programs such as: SAS, Minitab, NCSS, SCA, ADAPTA DLSFBS, DrPro++, AGSS, Demand Solutions, Forecast Pro XE, PROC FORECAST, Futurmaster, AutoBox, Smart forecast, SPSS Trend, Statgraphics, Matlab, Statistica, UNISTAT.Minitab, NCSS, SAS and Systat are examples of this group.
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Typically, these programs include BoxJenkins and exponential smoothing techniques as their core offerings, with different levels of automation and “ease of use”. Most current versions of these products have virtually identical forecasting features and capabilities. A newer branch of this market is the Microsoft Excel AddIns. Working on top of the spreadsheet engine, these products, typically macros, have the statistics and forecasting capabilities. These softwares have mainly segmented into two categories. Perhaps the largest is the standalone, dedicated statistics programs that offer forecasting capabilities as one of its features. A second broad category is standalone, dedicated forecast programs and these more advanced products generally offer many forecasting techniques, coupled with user features that make choosing the appropriate model, getting optimal parameters for that model, examining results, etc., easier than those found in general statistics programs. The software’s capabilities, ease of use and accuracy are the primary attributes that users seek. Judging how easy a program is to use is problematical and open to debate. An automatic program is one in which the software, after scanning the data and doing statistical tests, tells the user which methodology is most appropriate to use, or the user manually chooses an alternative model. In either case, the program then proceeds to find the optimal parameters for the model, makes forecasts for some userspecified time horizon, displays plots of the data and the forecasts. Users without that statistical background may blithely rely on the program’s recommendation, treating the software as a “black box”. However, good automatic software should give the user clear information about why and how it made its recommendation. Users expect the software to be accurate, but rarely do two programs using identical data, models and parameters get the same “optimal” parameters, and this, of course, leads to different forecasts. A general weakness of many of the products is that documentation is frequently short on mathematical or technical details. Sometime series are too short or volatile to use, while others may have missing values or statistical outliers that could preclude using the program or causing poor forecasts. Some programs facilitate this process, automatically giving the time series plot and offering warnings about the data and suggestions for correction. The typical user may have his or her data in an Excel spreadsheet, and while most programs claim that they can read such data and thus are Excel “compatible”, there are different degrees of compatibility. Others would not read an older Excel version spreadsheet, but wanted an earlier version of Excel. Graphics output varies. Some programs offer little user control of the plot, thus making cosmetic changes difficult. These and other issues can be easy to resolve. However, resolving
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some other issues may be harder. The infrequent forecast user wants to know details about the ease of learning and ease of use of the program. These products are frequently expensive, and the best way to answer these and other questions would be to download a “trial version” of the product. These versions are generally either the complete product limited to some time duration (15 or 30 days) or a certain number of runs, or have some type of crippling such as limited time series size, or not printing or saving data.
8.7 Water demand prediction technique at SCP
Water demand prediction at SCP plays an important role in the “Dynamic Regulation” control of the Canal de Provence. Indeed, ondemand water supply leads to large fluctuations in the canal flow which are difficult to forecast. On the contrary to the pressurized pipe networks which are more adapted to the ondemand water supply, the open canals are characterized by high response time, and present less flexibility since the storage volume are small. The “Dynamic Regulation” control is based on three different actions:  Anticipatory action: this action is based on the forecast of water requirements. According to the type of offtakes, flow forecasting can be either based on preestablished program, or by extrapolation of the trend for the coming hours using the average trends computed over the ten previous days. The forecasted flow at check structure are then calculated by introducing hydraulic delay from the intake to various offtakes and allow to determine target volumes for the different reachs of the canal for the next period of time.  Corrective action: practically the exact balance between the inflow and outflow in each reach cannot be achieved. This leads in the variations of volume in each reach which have to be counterbalanced by another action called corrective action. This corrective action consists in increasing the inflow in a reach if the actual volume is under the target volume and decreasing the inflow in the opposite case.  Coordination action: the corrective action can be different for two adjacent reachs and introduces a discrepancy between inflow and outflow in a reach. Thus, it is recommended to mitigate this imbalance by carrying forward the corrective action from one reach
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to the other upstream reachs, and this is called “coordination action” and it allows to better maintain the target volume. Finally, the flow to be delivered at the upstream of each reach is given by the sum of the three actions described previously:
Qreach = Q prediction + Qcorrection + Qcoordination
( Eq. 8.22 )
The SCP’s operators at the control center developed their own demand prediction tools based on their understanding of their own system being operated. These predictions carried out for a “statistical period (PS)” in general equals to 24 hours in the future. This period is divided into 96 timesteps because at SCP the average flows over a time interval of 15 minutes are archived and therefore we have 96 flow measurements a day. The predictions are carried out starting from “dimensionless curve” updated periodically at preset moments of the day. This curve is rebuilt repeatedly (around 10 times per day) using the archived flow data for a “statistical horizon” that is the previous ten days form the actual date (Viala, 2004). For each statistical period Psi of the statistical horizon, where i from 1 to 10, and for each timestep j, where j from 1 to 96, we have the historical flows. The average flow Q i is calculated for each Psi :
Q
i
=
∑
96
Q
j =1
ij
( Eq. 8.23 )
96
Then, for each statistical period Psi, we build the “dimensionless curve” such that the flows Qij are divided by their average flow Q i to define the ratio kij where:
k
ij
=
Q Q
ij i
( Eq. 8.24 )
Now, we create the “trend curve” such that the average of the kij ratios is calculated for each timestep over the statistical horizon:
kj =
∑
10
i =1
k ij
, j from 1 to 96
( Eq. 8.25)
10
This dimensionless curve gives the tendency of evolution of the flow over the statistical period, and it will be used to predict the demand flow for
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the coming statistical period. So, we define the “stabilization period Pstab” equals to 4 timesteps (i.e. 1 hour) preceding the actual date, and the average flow is then calculated over this period for only the last statistical curve, and we call this flow as “stabilization flow Qstab”. Also we calculate the average k of the dimensionless curve over this period. The ration of these two values is the “adjustment flow Qadjust” which used to adjust the dimensionless curve:
Q stab =
∑Q
j = 93
96
1j
4
,
k stab =
∑k
j = 93
96
j
4
→ Q adjust =
Q stab k stab
( Eq. 8.26 )
We multiply the dimensionless curve by Qadjust to produce the prediction curve for the considered period of 24 hours:
Q prediction
( j ) = k j × Q adjust
( Eq. 8.27 )
Figure 8.1 shows the recorded demand versus the predicted one for “Toulon Est” network from midday 10/03/2006 to midday 13/03/2006. These recorded demands are measured by electromagnetic flowmeter installed at the head of the system. The demands characteristics of “Toulon Est” network have been introduced in Chapter 2 (see section 2.7). The predicted demands are computed using the above technique. Figure 8.1 : Example of demand prediction at SCP – Toulon Est – 2006
0.8
Qreal
0.7 0.6 0.5
Qprediction
Q (m3/s)
0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
00:00:00 11/03/06 00:00:00 12/03/06 00:00:00 13/03/06 12:00:00 10/03/06 12:00:00 13/03/06
Time
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8.8
Daily demand prediction technique implemented in FINESSE software
Demand prediction in FINESSE takes as input measured daily demand profiles and produces as output a predicted daily demand. The demand predictor has an extensive data requirement but the prediction is fast. Typically, it takes longer to acquire measurement data that it does to analyze and predict demand. In Online use, each day the demand prediction program is provided with the daily measured demands for the previous period (typically six weeks) and the demand prediction in turn produce a prediction for the next 24 hours based on this data. Prediction is strictly on a daybyday basis, and it uses vertical prediction, where the demand at for example 08:00 on a given day is based on the demand at 08:00 on the preceding days. This is contrast to horizontal prediction where the prediction at 08:00 takes into account the demand at 07:45 if the prediction timestep is 15minutes for example. The demand prediction program implemented in FINESSE is called “Graphical Interactive Demand Analysis and Prediction, GIDAP” (Coulbeck, 1989) and (SEEE, 1989). GIDAP is basically divided into two halves; Demand Analysis and Demand Prediction. Prior to prediction the actual data is first screened and smoothed to produce the equivalent useful data. The main function of GIDAP is to predict 24hour or weekly demand profiles from current and recorded demand data. Demands profiles can consist of values at intervals as small as 15 minutes. The demand prediction process consists of several distinct stages concerned with the gradual refinement of raw data prior to prediction, as follows: 1. Data Screening. 2. Data Smoothing. 3. Data Forecasting. Special parameters are required at each stage of the prediction process. Data screening requires suitable screening thresholds; data smoothing requires the maximum significant harmonic to be known and data forecasting requires knowing how daily profiles are categorized (Figure 8.2). These parameters can sometimes be obtained by inspecting the demand data with a little experience. The analysis techniques employed in GIDAP are described in detail in the following sections.
1. Data screening
GIDAP assumes that the actual demand data that it uses to predict contains possible transmission and recording errors. These errors may
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manifest themselves as unusually small or large data values, sudden peaks or dips in the data or missing values. The screening process applied to this raw demand data attempts to identify such errors. For effective data screening four thresholds are defined:
Raw Demand Data
DEMAND PREDICTION
Data Screening
DEMAND ANALYSIS
Screening Thresholds
Data Smoothing
Maximum Significant Harmonic
Data Forecasting
Profile Categories
Predicted Demand Data
Figure 8.2 : GIPAD’s demand prediction stages 1. Lower demand threshold (DDMin) : data values below this threshold are considered to be too small and are rejected as transmission errors. 2. Upper demand threshold (DDMax) : data values above this threshold are considered to b too large and are rejected as transmission errors. 3. Maximum first difference (FDMax) : the first difference of a demand value defines the rate of change of demand represented by that value. The maximum first difference is defined such that if the first difference of a value exceeds it, then that value, then that value can be considered to be the result of an exaggerated rate of change in demand, and should be rejected. The first difference, FD[n], of the n’th data value is defined by:
FD [n ] =
Dt [n ] − Dt [m ] n−m
( Eq. 8.28 )
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4. Maximum second difference threshold (SDMax): the second difference of a demand value is a measure of the ‘peakiness’ of that value, or the acceleration of demand represented by that value. The maximum second difference is defined such that if the second difference of a value exceeds it, then that value could be the result of a transmission error. The second difference, SD[n], of the n’th data value is defined by:
SD [n ] = 2 × p −m −2 FD [ p ] − FD [n ]
( Eq. 8.29 )
0
Where: Dt[x] n m p NT
<
n, m , p
≤
NT
= demand value at position x, and day t = position of current demand value = position of last nonrejected demand value = position of next acceptable demand value = number of demand values per day
The screening process takes each value in a demand profile in turn, and tests it against each of the above threshold values; if the value fails the test on any one of the thresholds it is rejected and replaced by a predicted value. If the later value itself fails any of the same tests, then it is replaced again by a linear interpolation between adjacent nonrejected values. To be effective, the screening process requires the appropriate setting of each of the above mentioned thresholds.
2. Data smoothing
Data screening removes relatively coarse transmission errors but overlooks small random fluctuations in demand present usually as high frequency low amplitude harmonics. These harmonics make no significant contribution to the underlying trends in the demand or to the basic shape of the demand profile, but nevertheless they can affect forecasts unless they are removed. The smoothing process attempts to remove such insignificants harmonic components to reveal the underlying demand information. Basically, the screened demand profile is composed into its harmonic components, using a method based upon Fourier Analysis, called the FastFourierTransform, FFT. All harmonic components below a certain frequency are then recombined to form a smoothed version of the original profile. The assumption is that the components with the higher frequencies make no significant contribution to the profile and they are due instead to
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random fluctuations in demand. Specifically, a continuous demand pattern represented by the infinite Fourier series:
D (t ) = a0 +
∑ a Cos ( 2πjt )
j =1 j
∞
+
∑ b Sin ( 2πt )
j =1 j
∞
( Eq. 8.30 )
It can be estimated by:
ˆ ˆ D (t , NH ) = a0 + ˆ ∑ a j Cos (2πjt ) +
j =1 NH
ˆ ∑ b Sin (2πjt )
j =1 j
NH
( Eq. 8.31 )
Where: D(t) ˆ D(t , NH ) aj , bj ˆ ˆ aj , b j NH
= demand value at time t = estimate of D(t) summing NH harmonic = real harmonic coefficients = estimate of aj , bj = referred to the smoothing threshold, or the Highest Significant Harmonic.
NH represents that frequency, above which harmonic components become insignificant. The value selected for NH in the above model affects the amount of random data allowed to pass through to the prediction phase. If NH is too low, then significant trend information is lost and prediction performance will decline. Conversely, if NH is too high, noisy data would be passed on, also adversely affecting the prediction performance.
3. Data forecasting
Data forecasting is based upon the Triple Exponential Smoothing technique. This technique maintains estimates of current position, velocity and acceleration for each data value in a diurnal, which reflect the latest trends. These estimates are updated in the light of current smoothed data and then extrapolated forward one time period to produce the desired forecast. Days of the week can be grouped according to the statistical similarity of their average diurnal patterns, and therefore a separate set of estimates is maintained for each group or “category”. When actual smoothed data becomes available for the period t, Dt , the predicted error for that period, E, is found as follows: E = Pt – Dt ( Eq. 8.32 )
Where Pt is the predicted data or time period t.
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If the day of the week corresponding to time period t is in profile category i, then the current position Sit, velocity Vit and acceleration Ait estimates of category I, are updated in the light of the current prediction error E, as follows: Sit = Dt + ( 1 – α )3 * E Vit = Vit1 + Ait1  1.5 * ( 2 – α ) * α 2 * E Ait = Ait1 – α 3 * E ( Eq. 8.33 )
Where (α) is the smoothing constant.
If the day of the week corresponding to the period t+1 is in category j, then the forecast for the time period following period t, Pt+1, is found as follows: Pt+1 = Sjt + Vjt + 0.5 * Ajt ( Eq. 8.34 )
When actual data for time period t+1 becomes available, the above process is repeated for the forecast for the time period t+2. The performance of the exponential smoothing depends largely upon the value selected for the smoothing constant a. This constant effectively controls the number of past realizations of the time series that are to influence the forecast. Small values for a give more weight to previous data values and therefore results in a slow response of the forecasting model to trends in the demand data. Large values for a give more weight to more recent values and cause model to respond more rapidly to change in demand.
GIDAP program configuration
The correct functioning of demand prediction program is based upon the appropriate setting of the abovementioned parameters; screening thresholds, highest significant harmonic and smoothing constant. These values can be estimated, but they can also be derived automatically by supplying the demand prediction program with a certain amount of demand data and instructing it to configure itself. This usually requires about 6 weeks of data, mainly for the profile category analysis, but if the latter are known then as little as one day’s data is required as long as the data is good. In FINESSE this configuration is done automatically.
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Improved FINESSE demand prediction:
However, this version of the demand prediction is not very robust and the prediction results were not very good when compared to some other techniques as it will be demonstrated in the next section. Accordingly, the DMU improved this demand prediction and now the user can select between single, double, or triple exponential smoothing, and also the smoothing constant can be set manually.
8.9 Comparison between shortterm water demand forecasting techniques for water supply networks  case study : “Toulon Est” network system
One problem with each of these forecasting methods and techniques is simple: How good is it?. The aim of this comparison mainly is to raise this question. The approach used here is to employ more than one prediction method and tool, and then to compare their prediction results with each other. As a secondary aim of this paper is also to show the effect of prediction period selected on the results of the prediction. The following techniques are used for the comparison purpose: 123456Weighted Moving Average (WMA), Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES), SCP Prediction Technique, FINESSE demand predictor. AutoRegression Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA),
Approach
8.9.1
A Demand data source
The source of raw demand data used in this comparison is the recorded total water demand measured at the head of the “Toulon Est” distribution network for the years 2002 and 2003. The average demand over a time interval of 15 minutes is recorded in cubic meters per second, so we have 96 demand measurements a day.
B Data pretreatment
Since the historical demand data contains some missing and noise
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values, the demand data will be screened and smoothed to estimate the missing one and remove the noise before passing to the prediction process. The screening process used here is just to eliminate the outlier data or extrapolate the missing one using moving average without losing any important information about the original demand profile. The screening is based on a relatively very coarse criterion that is: starting from a valid demand, the rate of change in system’s demand over 15 minutes will not exceed 30% and erroneous values and then the demand values are replaced by moving average demand for the last three measured demands. Figure 8.3 : Example of original vs. smoothed demand  Year 2002
1.2 Original dem and Sm oothed dem and 1.0
demand (m 3/s)
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
8juin02
9juin02
10juin02
10juin02
A spectral analysis has been also done for the measured demand and the periodogram was drawn0 (Figure 8.4). It was detected that the maximum period was at about wavelength = 96, where the wavelength corresponds to the number of measurements, thus the wavelength =96 means that the system’s periodicity is every 96 measurements, in others words, 24hour water demand pattern. The spectrum shown in Figure 8.4 is for year 2002 only.
C Prediction period
The demand will be predicted for the coming day using certain number of preceding days, this number refers to the “prediction period”.
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For WMA, SES, TES, and FINESSE two prediction periods were selected: 21days (3 weeks) and 42 days (6 weeks). While for the SCP prediction technique only one prediction period has been selected, that is 10 days. For ARIMA, the prediction period is from the beginning of the year to the day before the day for which the demand will be predicted. Figure 8.4 : Measured demand and the periodogram
2 ,5 0 0
T o u lo n  E s t D e m a n d F o r Y e a r 2 0 0 2
2 ,0 0 0
Demand (m3/s)
1 ,5 0 0
1 ,0 0 0
0 ,5 0 0
0 ,0 0 0 < 30 June 2002 > < 29 Aug. 2002 > < 1 May 2002 > < 31 May 2002 > < 30 July 2002 > < 28 Sept. 2002 > < 29 Oct. 2002 >
P erio d o gram F o r T o ulo nEst Demand (2002)
3 ,E+0 9 2 ,E+0 9 2 ,E+0 9 1 ,E+0 9 5 ,E+0 8 0 ,E+0 0 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 W a ve le n g th = 96
Period
Wave le ngth
D Foreword prediction period
The demand will be predicted 24hours foreword for every day for the period from the 1st of May 2002 to the 31 October 2002, and from the 1st of May 2003 to the 31 October 2003, which means 184 days for each year. Because of the daily water demand behavior of this system, the prediction is vertical prediction, where the demand at for example 08:00 on a given day is based on the demand at 08:00 on the preceding days. The predicted demand will be compared to the measured one to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction using the criterion described soon.
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E Evaluating the accuracy of prediction
We want a measure of how good the prediction is. The predicted demand will be statically compared to the measured one. The “decisive factors” used in the comparison between different techniques in order to decide the “best” forecasting technique are: Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean absolute relative error (MARE), RSquared, Correlation Coefficient.
F Prediction tools
The tools that were used to realize the prediction are briefly described here for each technique:
1 Weighted moving average (WMA)
In order to do the prediction by this technique, a macro was created in MS Excel since the prediction techniques, such as WMA, are easy to implement on a spreadsheet. The mathematical equation used by WMA to predict the demand for the next 24 hours is simple:
PD =
∑
T
t +1
t =1
t ×Dt
T
∑
( Eq. 8.35 )
t
t =1
Where: t T Dt PDt
= time period (t =1, 2, 3, …, T) = prediction period or number of days used to predict demand = actual demand at time period t = predicted demand for time period t
For the prediction period (T), two prediction periods were selected: 21days (3 weeks) and 42 days (6 weeks).
2 Single exponential smoothing (SES)
This technique is also implemented in an Excel spreadsheet. The mathematical equations used by SES to predict the demand for the next 24 hours are:
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Et = PD PD
t
Dt
S t = D t + (1  α ) × Ε t
t
( Eq. 8.36 )
= St
Where: t T N Dt PDt Et α
= time period (t =1, 2, 3, …, T) = prediction period or number of days used to predict demand = number of demand measurements per day = actual demand at time period t = predicted demand for time period t = actual prediction error at time period t = smoothing constant
For the prediction period (T), two prediction periods were selected: 21days (3 weeks) and 42 days (6 weeks). One of the problems regarding the SES is setting its smoothing constants, alpha, to the appropriate values. Thus, a several values of alpha were used to predict the demand for the same 184 days, and then selecting the “optimal” value of alpha that one results statistically in predictions close to the measured demands. The following values of alpha were used : α = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8 and 0.9. It was found that alpha optimal for year 2002 was α = 0.7, while for year 2003 alpha optimal was α = 0.5 and 0.6 (see Table 2.1). As a compromise, alpha was selected to be α = 0.6 for both years. Table 8.1 : Alpha setting for SES
SES 2002 Alpha 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 RSquared 101 MSE 102 RSquared 101 SES 2003 MSE 102
9.660 9.752 9.777 9.791 9.798
9.820 9.822
4.780 3.534 3.066 2.825 2.693
2.356 2.400
9.586 9.672 9.704 9.718
9.976 9.976
4.435 3.592 3.279 3.137
2.569 2.581
9.719 9.709 9.693
3.164 3.282 3.457
9.800 9.795
2.548 2.617
3 Triple exponential smoothing (TES)
The same as the WMA and SES, this technique is implemented in an Excel spreadsheet. The mathematical equations used by TES to predict the
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demand for the next 24 hours are:
E t = PD t  D t S t = D t + (1  α ) 3 × E t V t = V t 1 + A t 1 1.5 × ( 2  α ) × α 2 × E t A t = A t 1 − α 3 × E t PD
t +1
( Eq. 8.37 )
= S t + V t + 0 .5 × A t
Where: t T N Dt PDt Et α
= time period (t =1, 2, 3,… T) = prediction period or number of days used to predict demand = number of demand measurements per day = actual demand at time period t = predicted demand for time period t = actual prediction error at time period t = smoothing constant
For the prediction period (T), two prediction periods were selected: 21days (3 weeks) and 42 days (6 weeks). Again, we should set the smoothing constant, alpha, to the appropriate values. The following values of alpha were used : α = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8 and 0.9. It was found that alpha optimal for year 2002 was α = 0.2, and for year 2003 alpha optimal was α = 0.2 (see Table 8.2). Thus, alpha was selected to be α = 0.2 for both years. Table 8.2 : Alpha setting for TES
TEST 2002 Alpha 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 RSquared 101 MSE 102 RSquared 101 TEST 2003 MSE 102
9.734
9.767
3.610
3.076
9.645
9.706
3.923
3.228
9.752 9.709 9.655 9.573 9.450 9.263 8.979
3.373 3.743 4.701 5.765 7.454 9.055 9.502
9.616 9.552 9.455 9.310 9.093 8.769 8.288
4.263 5.032 6.196 7.967 10.708 15.039 22.075
4 SCP prediction technique
This is also simple technique and was implemented in MS Excel spreadsheet. We tried here to mimic the same procedure done at the control
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room of SCP as describe in section 8.7 of this chapter, where the prediction period is 10 days and the prediction is updated about four times a day, i.e. every 6 hours. However, we will use the same prediction period (10 days), the prediction will be updated every 6 hours (4 times /day), and then every 24 hours (1 times/day) to compare between the two updating frequencies.
5 FINESSE predictor module
The only thing we have to do here is to prepare the demand data in appropriate format accepted by FINESSE predictor, where the data must be in a text (tab delimited) format. Then the importation of data inside FINESSE should be done manually for each day. For the prediction period, two prediction periods were selected, the same as for SES and TES: 21days (3 weeks) and 42 days (6 weeks). Both the old and the new versions of the FINESSE demand prediction will be tested. The new one will be used to predict the demand twice by using single exponential smoothing level and smoothing constant = 0.6, and then by using triple exponential smoothing level and smoothing constant = 0.2 for the same prediction periods: 21days (3 weeks) and 42 days (6 weeks).
6 Autoregression integrated moving average (ARIMA)
For ARIMA, because this technique is more complex than the above techniques, we used statistical analysis software known as “NCSS” (Hintze, 2005), which provides the user with timeseries analysis tools; including ARIMA model. The first step is to determine the order of differencing needed to stationarize the series. From the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions, any nonstationarity in the series can be identified. The ACF is shown in Figure 8.5 for demand series. From the ACFs for both years 2002 and 2003, it is clear that the ACFs decay very slowly, indicating nonstationary series, and there are peaks every 96 time lags. These peaks imply a seasonal effect of season length = 96, which correspond to a daily pattern since the data is measured every 15 minutes (this already shown in the periodogram in Figure 8.4). It is likely that the model will need to incorporate a first order consecutive difference and a 96 seasonal difference term. Therefore, the ACF and PACF of the model ARIMA (0,1,0)(0,1,0)96 were examined. These are shown in Figure 8.6 and Figure 8.7. The series are now stationarized after differencing. In light of these figures, a model consisting of a nonseasonal autoregressive parameter, two nonseasonal moving average parameters, and a seasonal moving average parameter was considered as an appropriate model. The ARIMA model is written as ARIMA (1,1,2)(0,1,1)96, and the parameter estimation there significance on
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the model were done by the NCSS software as shown in Table 8.3. However, further terms were added to the model but were found to be unnecessary. The next step was to examine the residual of the time series, and this done by the examination of the ACF of the residual. The ACF is shown in Figure 8.8 for both years 2002 and 2003. The figure shows that the series is white noise. Figure 8.5 : Autocorrelation function of demand series
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Figure 8.6 : Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions, 2002
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Figure 8.7 : Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions, 2003
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Figure 8.8 : Autocorrelation function of residual
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Table 8.3 : Parameter estimation Model Estimation Section for Year 2002: Model: Regular(1,1,2), Seasonal(0,1,1), Seasons = 96 Parameter Name AR(1) MA(1) MA(2) SMA(1) Parameter Estimate 0.529 0.283 0.231 0.974 Standard Error 1.162E02 1.178E02 6.310E03 1.021E03 TValue 45.503 23.999 36.659 954.085 Prob Level 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Model Estimation Section for Year 2003: Model: Regular(1,1,2), Seasonal(0,1,1), Seasons = 96 Parameter Name AR(1) MA(1) MA(2) SMA(1) Parameter Estimate 0.381 0.077 0.235 0.959 Standard Error 1.426E02 1.407E02 6.674E03 1.382E03 TValue 26.735 5.476 35.205 693.853 Prob Level 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
8.9.2
Comparison of the prediction results
The measured and predicted demands for these techniques are compared to each others using the NCSS software. The results of this comparison (RSquared, correlation, MSE, and MARE) are summarized in Table 8.4 and Table 8.5 and Figure 8.9 and Figure 8.10 shown in the next pages. The techniques are ranked in the tables. For year 2002, the SCP technique is statistically in the first rank and the best one that predict the demand for our system because it gives the maximum RSquared and correlation, and the minimum MSE and MARE, and the prediction was better with 2hour updating frequency (SCP2h) than with 24hour updating frequency (SCP24h). The new FINESSE demand predictor is in the second rank. The ARIMA technique comes in the third rank, then SES, TES, WMA, and the old FINESSE demand predictor in the last rank that what shows us Table 8.4 and Figure 8.9. For year 2003, the SCP technique is still statistically in the first rank, and the prediction was better with 2hour updating frequency (SCP2h) than with 24hour updating frequency (SCP24h). ARIMA technique comes in the second rank, then SES which upgraded to the third rank.
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While the new FINESSE demand predictor downgraded to the fourth rank, then TES, WMA, and the old FINESSE demand predictor is the last one that what shows us Table 8.5and Figure 8.10. For all cases, it is clear that the single exponential smoothing forecasts the demand better than the triple exponential smoothing. Moreover, the effect of the 21day and 42day prediction periods was almost negligible for SES, TES and FINESSE, and this applies to both years 2002 and 2003. Generally, the 21day prediction period is fairly better, except for old FINESSE predictor for the year 2003. In parallel, the same comparison has been made between the different methods but for only one day arbitrarily selected during the peak period demand of the year 2003 (July 31, 2003). As shown in Figure 8.11 and Table 8.6, one note that the SCP technique, with 2hour updating frequency (SCP2h), is still statistically in the first rank and the best one that predict the demand for our system because it gives the maximum RSquared and correlation, and the minimum MSE and MARE.
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Figure 8.9 : Prediction methods comparison – Year 2002
1.00 Rsquared 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 ARIMA TES21 TES42 WMA21 WMA42 SCP24 SES21 SES42 FIN21_New_T02 FIN42_New_T02 FIN21_Old FIN42_Old SCP2h FIN21_New_S06 FIN42_New_S06
RSquared 2002
Correlation
1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70
Correlation 2002
ARIMA
TES21
TES42
WMA21
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
FIN21_Old FIN21_Old
FIN21_New_S06
0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 SCP2h FIN21_New_S06
MeanSquaredError (MSE) 2002
0.25 0.20 MARE 0.15 0.10 0.05
Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE) 2002
MSE
ARIMA
FIN42_New_S06
TES21
TES42
ARIMA
TES21
WMA21
WMA42
TES42
WMA21
FIN42_Old FIN42_Old
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
Table 8.4 : Results  2002
Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Method
SCP2h FIN21_New_S06 FIN42_New_S06 FIN21_New_T02 FIN42_New_T02 SCP24 ARIMA SES21 SES42 TES21 TES42 WMA21 FIN21_Old FIN42_Old WMA42
RSquared
0.9641 0.9575 0.9466 0.9407 0.9295 0.8888 0.8828 0.8566 0.8566 0.8272 0.8256 0.7240 0.6832 0.6827 0.6265
Correlation
0.9819 0.9785 0.9729 0.9699 0.9641 0.9428 0.9396 0.9255 0.9255 0.9095 0.9086 0.8509 0.8266 0.8262 0.7915
FIN42_New_S06
FIN42_New_T02
FIN21_Old
FIN42_Old
MSE
0.0059 0.0070 0.0088 0.0102 0.0122 0.0185 0.0206 0.0236 0.0236 0.0308 0.0310 0.0458 0.0532 0.0533 0.0633
MARE
0.0729 0.0758 0.0838 0.0942 0.1004 0.1253 0.1312 0.1400 0.1400 0.1584 0.1591 0.2004 0.2176 0.2219 0.2470
WMA42
SCP24
SCP24
SES21
SES42
SES21
SCP2h
SES42
WMA42
SCP24
SES21
SCP2h
SES42
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Figure 8.10 : Prediction methods comparison – Year 2003
1.00 0.90 Rsquared 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 ARIMA TES21 TES42 FIN21_New_T02 FIN42_New_T02 SES21 SES42 WMA21 WMA42 SCP24 FIN42_Old FIN21_Old SCP2h FIN21_New_S06 FIN42_New_S06
RSquared 2003
Correlation
1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 ARIMA
Correlation 2003
TES21
TES42
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
SES21
SES42
WMA21
FIN42_Old FIN42_Old
FIN21_New_S06
0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00
MeanSquaredError (MSE) 2003
0.25 0.23 0.21 0.19 0.17 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.05
Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE) 2003
ARIMA
MARE
MSE
TES21
TES42
ARIMA
FIN42_New_S06
TES21
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
TES42
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
SES21
SES42
SES21
SCP24
WMA21
WMA42
SCP24
SES42
WMA21
FIN21_Old FIN21_Old
FIN42_Old
FIN21_Old
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
Table 8.5 : Results  2003
Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Method
SCP2h SCP24 ARIMA SES21 SES42 FIN21_New_S06 FIN42_New_S06 TES21 TES42 FIN21_New_T02 FIN42_New_T02 WMA21 FIN42_Old FIN21_Old WMA42
RSquared
0.9369 0.7733 0.7679 0.7435 0.7435 0.7288 0.7089 0.7074 0.7026 0.7008 0.6658 0.5771 0.5327 0.5040 0.4623
Correlation
0.9679 0.8794 0.8763 0.8623 0.8623 0.8537 0.8420 0.8411 0.8382 0.8372 0.8160 0.7596 0.7298 0.7099 0.6799
FIN42_New_S06
MSE
0.0063 0.0237 0.0245 0.0261 0.0261 0.0281 0.0312 0.0324 0.0325 0.0334 0.0385 0.0429 0.0498 0.0536 0.0577
MARE
0.0609 0.1249 0.1264 0.1404 0.1404 0.1447 0.1512 0.1522 0.1523 0.1544 0.1649 0.1928 0.2115 0.2177 0.2309
WMA42
SCP2h
SCP2h
WMA42
SCP2h
SCP24
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Figure 8.11 : Prediction methods comparison – July 31, 2003
RSquared July 31, 2003
Correlation
1.0 0.9 Rsquared 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 ARIMA
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 TES21 TES42 ARIMA
Correlation July 31, 2003
TES21 FIN42_Old
WMA42
WMA21
SCP24
WMA42
WMA21
FIN42_New_T02
FIN21_New_T02
SCP24
FIN42_New_T02
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
0.020 0.016
MeanSquaredError (MSE) July 31, 2003
0.10 0.08 MARE 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00
Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE) July 31, 2003
MSE
0.012 0.008 0.004 0.000 ARIMA TES42 TES21 SES42 SES21 WMA21 SCP24 WMA42 FIN42_New_T02 FIN21_New_T02 FIN21_Old FIN42_Old SCP2h FIN42_New_S06 FIN21_New_S06
ARIMA
FIN21_New_S06
TES42
SES42
SES21
WMA21
SCP24
TES21
FIN21_New_T02
SES21
SES42
SES21
FIN21_Old
FIN42_Old
FIN21_Old
FIN42_Old
SCP2h
SCP2h
SES42
FIN42_New_T02
FIN42_New_S06
Table 8.6 : Results  July 31, 2003
Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Method
SCP2h FIN21_Old FIN42_Old ARIMA WMA42 WMA21 SCP24 FIN42_New_S06 FIN21_New_S06 FIN42_New_T02 SES21 SES42 FIN21_New_T02 TES21 TES42
RSquared
0.8656 0.8255 0.8112 0.7464 0.7424 0.7090 0.6739 0.6456 0.6393 0.6099 0.6097 0.6097 0.5845 0.5680 0.5635
Correlation
0.9304 0.9086 0.9007 0.8639 0.8616 0.8420 0.8209 0.8035 0.7996 0.7809 0.7809 0.7809 0.7646 0.7537 0.7507
FIN21_New_S06
MSE
0.0015 0.0082 0.0114 0.0062 0.0133 0.0054 0.0036 0.0058 0.0062 0.0073 0.0052 0.0052 0.0103 0.0079 0.0079
MARE
0.0228 0.0652 0.0727 0.0497 0.0814 0.0494 0.0363 0.0462 0.0497 0.0544 0.0460 0.0460 0.0708 0.0612 0.0611
FIN21_New_T02
FIN21_Old
WMA42
SCP2h
TES42
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Figure Measured and predicted demand (July 31, 2003) Figure 8.12 : 8.12 : Measured vs. predicted demands
1.7 1.6 1.5
(July 31, 2003)
D e m a n d (m 3 /s )
1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1
Dm WMA21 TES21 SCP2h FIN42_New_S06 WMA42 TES42 SCP24 FIN21_New_T02 SES21 FIN21_Old ARIMA FIN42_New_T02
1.0 0.9 0.8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
SES42 FIN42_Old FIN21_New_S06
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour
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Lately, we also made the same comparison for the years 2004 and 2005. The technique for the old version of FINESSE was excluded here since it is not available any more. The results of this comparison were in agreement with what we obtained for years 2002 and 2003. The SCP technique is still in the first rank, the SES forecasts the demand better than the TES, and the effect of the prediction periods was almost negligible. Figure 8.13 : Prediction methods comparison – Year 2004
1.00 Rsquared 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 ARIMA TES21 TES42 WMA21 WMA42 SCP24 FIN42_New_T02 FIN21_New_T02 SES21 SES42 SCP2h FIN42_New_S06 FIN21_New_S06
RSquared 2004
Correlation
1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 ARIMA
Correlation 2004
TES21
TES42
WMA21 WMA21
FIN42_New_T02
FIN42_New_S06
0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 ARIMA
MeanSquaredError (MSE) 2004
0.30 0.25 MARE 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 TES21 TES42
Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE) 2004
MSE
ARIMA
FIN21_New_S06
FIN21_New_T02
TES21
WMA21
WMA42
TES42
FIN42_New_T02
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
Table 8.7 : Results  2004
Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Method
SCP2h ARIMA SCP24 SES21 SES42 FIN42_New_S06 FIN21_New_S06 FIN42_New_T02 FIN21_New_T02 TES21 TES42 WMA21 WMA42
RSquared
0.9624 0.9303 0.8923 0.8523 0.8523 0.8519 0.8503 0.8316 0.8304 0.8256 0.8249 0.6730 0.5584
Correlation
0.9810 0.9645 0.9446 0.9232 0.9232 0.9230 0.9221 0.9119 0.9113 0.9086 0.9083 0.8203 0.7473
FIN21_New_S06
MSE
0.0054 0.0099 0.0132 0.0161 0.0161 0.0162 0.0163 0.0203 0.0203 0.0217 0.0218 0.0385 0.0523
FIN21_New_T02
MARE
0.0684 0.0861 0.1009 0.1220 0.1220 0.1251 0.1254 0.1419 0.1423 0.1479 0.1480 0.2245 0.2835
WMA42
SCP24
SES21
SES42
SCP24
SES21
SCP2h
SCP2h
SES42
WMA42
SCP24
SES21
SCP2h
SES42
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Figure 8.14 : Prediction methods comparison – Year 2005
RSquared 2005
Correlation
1.00 Rsquared 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 ARIMA
1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 TES21 TES42 ARIMA
Correlation 2005
TES21
WMA21
WMA42
TES42
WMA21 WMA21
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
FIN21_New_T02
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 SCP24 SCP2h
MeanSquaredError (MSE) 2005
0.30 0.25 MARE 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05
Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE) 2005
MSE
ARIMA
TES21
TES42
ARIMA
FIN42_New_S06
FIN42_New_T02
TES21
WMA21
WMA42
TES42
FIN21_New_T02
FIN42_New_T02
FIN21_New_T02
FIN21_New_S06
FIN42_New_S06
FIN21_New_S06
Table 8.8 : Results  2005
Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Method
SCP2h SCP24 ARIMA FIN21_New_S06 FIN42_New_S06 SES42 SES21 FIN21_New_T02 FIN42_New_T02 TES21 TES42 WMA21 WMA42
RSquared
0.9595 0.9417 0.9303 0.9025 0.9004 0.8929 0.8929 0.8927 0.8916 0.8788 0.8779 0.7945 0.6316
Correlation
0.9795 0.9704 0.9645 0.9500 0.9489 0.9449 0.9449 0.9448 0.9443 0.9374 0.9370 0.8913 0.7947
FIN42_New_S06
MSE
0.0139 0.0201 0.0290 0.0335 0.0344 0.0368 0.0368 0.0377 0.0382 0.0434 0.0435 0.0703 0.1264
FIN42_New_T02
MARE
0.0816 0.1026 0.1288 0.1370 0.1380 0.1408 0.1408 0.1491 0.1501 0.1588 0.1590 0.2092 0.2961
WMA42
SES42
SES21
SCP24
SES42
SCP2h
SES21
WMA42
SES42
SES21
SES42
SCP24
SCP2h
SCP2h
SCP24
SES21
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8.9.3
Conclusion
Data pretreatment process, such as screening and smoothing, are widely used as an effective and efficient time series mining tools. In this test the raw demand data was screened and smoothed to replace the missing data and remove the noise in the signal. Prediction period is another issue that should be considered in the prediction. In this test, the effect of this issue was not quite evident for SES and TES techniques, and a little effect was observed for FINESSE. Anyway, when “data is money” from economic viewpoint, using less data to predict means less prediction costs. Thus, in some cases using a prediction technique that requires less data will positively be preferable in term of money. As mentioned before, one of the problems regarding the exponential smoothing techniques is setting its smoothing constants, alpha, to the appropriate values. This parameter depends on the system demand and should be calibrated and updated from time to time. An interesting result form this comparison is that the knowledge and the experience of the persons who manage and operate the networks at the SCP’s control room had permitted them to develop their own forecasting tools giving good forecasts for demands for the systems which they operate when compared to others known techniques such these presented here. Finally, The morale of this comparison is neither to criticize nor to praise one of the these techniques but it’s rather to reveal that certain technique could be more appropriate for a system than others and vice versa depending mainly on the system itself. However, the persons who operate the system are the best one who can tell, based on their well understanding of the behavior of the system demand and water user, which technique (or techniques) is (are) appropriate(s) to predict the demand for the system.
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CHAPTER 9
9.
Optimization of Water Distribution Networks
9.1
Introduction
Practical optimization is the art and science of allocating scarce resources to the best possible effect. Optimization techniques are called into play every day in questions of industrial planning, resource allocation, scheduling, decisionmaking, etc. Many of large scale optimization techniques in general use today can trace their origins to methods developed during the World War II to deal with the massive logistical issues raised by huge armies having millions of men and machines. Any techniques that promised to improve the effectiveness of the war effort were desperately needed, especially in the face of limited numbers of people, machines, and supplies. The fundamentals of the first practical, largescale optimization technique, the simplex method, were developed during the war. This simplex method was perfected shortly after the war when the first electronic computers were becoming available. In fact, the early history of computing is closely intertwined with the history of practical optimization. In the early years, the vast majority of all calculation on electronic computers was devoted to optimization via the simplex method (John, 2000). New optimization techniques are arriving daily, often stimulated by fascinating insights from other fields. Genetic algorithms, for example, use an analogy to chromosome encoding and natural selection to evolve good optimization solutions. Optimization techniques play a role in training artificial neural networks used in artificial intelligence research for pattern recognition. Today, optimization methods are used everywhere in business, industry, government, engineering, and computer science because optimization problems arise just as regularly in these fields as they did during World War II (John, 2000) and (Simpson, 1994). The process of optimization is shown schematically in Figure 9.1 (John, 2000). We typically begin with real problem, full of details and complexities, some relevant and some not. From this we extract the essential elements to create a model, and choose an algorithm or solution
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technique to apply to it. In practical problems, the computer will carry out the necessary calculations. Moving from the algorithm or solution technique computer implementation is generally the province of numerical methods. Moving from computer implementation back to the algorithm or solution technique is called verification. The main idea is to make sure that the computer implementation is actually carrying out the algorithm as it is supposed to. Again, this will not be of great concern for users of welltested commercial optimizers. We will be greatly concerned with the validation and sensitivity analysis, the process of moving between the algorithm or solution technique and the real world problem. Validation is the process of making sure that the algorithm or solution technique is appropriate for the real situation. Sensitivity analysis looks at the effect of the specific data on the results.
Real word problem
Analysis Validation and sensitivity analysis
Algorithm or solution technique
Numerical model Verification
Computer implementation
Figure 9.1 : Optimization process In most operational optimization methods, the optimization problem is simplified through assumptions, discretization or heuristic rules. Such simplification makes it easier for specific optimization methods to determine the optimal solution, but introduces bias into the solution by excluding a large number of potentially good solutions. Genetic algorithms do not require such simplification measures, giving them a significant advantage in finding a near global optimal solution over most other optimization methods (Walski, 2003).
9.2 Optimization terminology Objective function
When optimizing a system or process, it is important to quantify how good a particular solution is. A mathematical function called an objective function is used to measure system performance and indicate the degree to
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which the objectives are achieved. If multiple objectives exist, then there will be multiple objective functions. The term optimization refers to mathematical techniques used to automatically adjust some details of the system in such a way as to achieve, for instance, the best possible system performance, or the leastcost design that achieves a specified performance level. The best or most advantageous solution (or solutions in multiobjective analysis) is called the optimal solution.
Decision variables
In order to improve the performance of a system, the parameters that can be changed must be known. These quantifiable parameters are called decision variables, and their respective values are to be determined. For example, in pipesize optimization, the decision variables are the diameter for each of the pipes being considered. Any restrictions on the values that can be assigned to decision variables should be clearly stated in the optimization model. In the case of pipe sizes, each discrete pipe size available should be defined.
Constraints
When judging systems and solutions, it is necessary to consider the limits or restrictions within which the system must operate. These limits are called constraints. If one's objective is to attain a minimumcost solution, for example, one must also consider the constraints on system performance and reliability. Constraints serve to define the decision space from which the objective function can take its values. The decision space is the set of all possible decision variables, and the solution space is the set of all possible solutions to the problem. Constraints may be further classified as hard constraints, which may not be exceeded without failure or severe damage to the system, and soft constraints, which may be exceeded to a certain extent, although it is generally not desirable to do so. An example of a hard constraint is the maximum pressure that a pipe can withstand without jeopardizing the structural integrity of the system. A minimum pressure requirement for all water system nodes and a maximum permissible velocity for system pipes are possible soft constraints.
9.3 The Optimization process
The optimization involves:
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a) The selection of a set of decision variables to describe the decision alternatives. b) The selection of an objective or several objectives expressed in terms of the decision variables that one seeks to optimize (that is; minimize or maximize). c) The determination of a set of constraints (both hard and soft), expressed in terms of the decision variables, which must be satisfied by any acceptable (feasible) solution. d) The determination of a set of values (continuous or discrete) for the decision variables so as to minimize (or maximize) the objective function, while satisfying all constraints. In a more formal mathematical fashion, an optimization problem is said to be given in the standard form if the above elements of the problem are presented as: Objective function: Max f(x) Subject to constraints: g(x) ≤ 0 and h(x) = 0 x ∈ X (Eq. 9.1) Where: f x f, g, h X = objective function = vector of decision variables = functions of x = set of all possible solutions
When dealing with complex problems in practice, the experienced engineer will of course adopt rules of thumb and use personal experience to focus on possible alternatives that are reasonably costeffective, thereby dramatically reducing the decision space size. Optimization is simply another type of modeling, and the logic that applies to the application of other computer models applies to optimization models as well. Optimization tools therefore should be used for supporting decisions rather than for making them  they should not substitute for the decisionmaking process (Goldman, 1998).
9.4 Water distribution networks optimization
Given that water and energy are fundamentally important for the health and vitality of any community, efficient energy management is important for water companies to meet government environmental targets and energy savings for economic reasons. For realtime control of water distribution networks, the aim should be to optimize the whole process for
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both improved performance and operationalcost reduction, rather than one or the other. Water distribution systems management is multidimensional. It embraces planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance. Water distribution systems optimization has been a goal for many research and design projects in the water industry around the world, and can be broadly classified into two categories, namely design and operations. Design can include, for example, determining pipe diameters and locations of chlorine booster stations. Alternatively, water distribution systems operation is focused on the shorter time horizon, such as choosing triggerlevels in tanks for switching pumps on/off, and may also include chlorine dosing concentrations. More recently, water quality considerations have also been incorporated into water distribution systems optimization by requiring a minimum chlorine disinfection level throughout the system. Due to uncertainty in water distribution systems data, such as the demands and pipe roughness factors, reliability has also been incorporated into optimization. The objective has usually been to minimize cost, subject to hydraulic constraints, such as satisfying minimum pressure. The efficient operation of such systems is a fundamental tool for extending the system’s service life as much as possible, thus ensuring a reliable service to the consumers while keeping electrical energy and maintenance costs at acceptable levels. Efficient operation requires knowledge of the system, supported by tools such as models for hydraulic simulation, optimization, and definition of rules, provides the operator with proper conditions for the rational operation of the system’s units. In this research work only the optimization of the operation of water distribution systems was dealt with. Many water utilities spend 50% or more of their annual operating costs for electric power, of which more than 95% of the electric power budget may be associated with the cost of pumping (Pezeshk, 1996). Consequently, optimizing pump operations can generate significant savings that would be in the range of hundreds of thousands of euros annually. The problem of finding the optimal operating strategy is far from simple: both the electricity tariff and consumer demand can vary greatly through a typical operating cycle; minimum levels of water have to be maintained in tanks to ensure reliability of the supply, and the number of pump switches in an operating cycle has to be limited to avoid excessive pump maintenance costs. Added to these factors the fact that the hydraulic behavior of water distribution systems is highly nonlinear, making computer modeling a complex and timeconsuming process. Finally, the number of possible operating strategies becomes vast for systems with more than a few pumps and tanks. In the planning, design and operating phases of a water system, there
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are often many alternatives for each component of the system (Pérez, 2001). To illustrate the size of the optimization problem, consider a simple network design example in which only 10 pipes must be sized. If we assume that there are 10 discrete diameters to choose from for each pipe, then theoretically, the total number of possible design alternatives is 1010. With the aid of a hydraulic network model, the modeler adopts a trialanderror approach to produce a few feasible solutions, which can then be priced. The main reason to rely on any model in a decisionmaking process is to provide a quantitative assessment of the effects of management decisions on the system being considered. A model also provides an objective assessment as opposed to subjective opinions of system behavior. Thus, models should be used in support of decisionmaking. Optimization, as it applies to water distribution system modeling, is the process of finding the best, or optimal, solution to a water distribution system problem. Examples of possible problems are the design of new piping or determination of the most efficient pumping schedule. This section provides a general overview of the optimization process, including key terminology and principles.
9.5 Applications of optimization in water distribution networks
Many realworld engineering design or decisionmaking problems need to achieve several objectives: minimize risks, maximize reliability, minimize deviations from desired (target) levels, minimize cost (both capital and operational), and so on. Various problems from water distribution modeling practice can be formulated as optimization problems. This section provides a brief overview of the main areas where optimization has been applied to water distribution management problems (Walski, 2003).
Automated calibration
Before hydraulic network models can be used for predictive purposes with any degree of confidence, they need to be calibrated against field data. Optimization can automate the process of adjusting the parameters of the network model by using a measure of the match between modeled and observed values as the objective. In other words, optimization in this case is aimed at determining the pipe roughness and nodal demand, which will minimize the difference between modeled and observed values (see Chapter 7).
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Operational optimization
Pump operating costs make up a large proportion of the expenses of water utilities. It is therefore important to plan the operation of pumps to minimize energy consumption while maintaining the required standard of service and reliability. For water distribution systems, the objective function is normally defined to minimize the operational cost of the system over a period of time (typically 24 hours), and the decision variables are the times for which each pump is run.
Design/Expansion
Design of new water distribution networks or expansion of existing ones is often viewed as a leastcost optimization problem with pipe diameters being the decision variables. Pipe layout, connectivity, and imposed head and velocity constraints are considered known. Obviously, other elements (such as service reservoirs and pumps) and other possible objectives (reliability, redundancy, and water quality) exist that could be included in the optimization process. However, difficulties with including reservoirs and pumps and with quantifying additional objectives for use within the optimization process have historically kept most optimization researchers focused on pipe diameters and the single objective of least cost (Walski, 2003).
Rehabilitation
Improvements in a water distribution system's performance can be achieved through replacing, rehabilitating, duplicating, or repairing some of the pipes or other components (pumps, tanks, and so on) in the network, and also by adding completely new components. It is likely that funding will be available to modify or add only a small number of components to a network at any one time. The multiobjective optimization problem is therefore formulated to choose which components to add or improve (and how to improve them) in order to maximize the benefits resulting from the system changes, while minimizing the costs, possibly subject to budget constraints.
9.6 Optimization methods
Optimization search methods range from analytical optimization of one variable; to linear, nonlinear, and dynamic programming approaches. The most sophisticated search methods mimic various natural processes in
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their approaches; these techniques are called adaptive search methods. Adaptive methods known as genetic algorithms mimic the natural selection process and have been successfully applied to distribution network optimization (Walski, 2003). The hydraulic simulation model is used to implicitly solve for the hydraulic constraints that define the flow phenomena (continuity and energy balance) each time the search method needs to evaluate these constraints. The search process starts by generating one or more initial solutions. Each solution is then tested by solving the hydraulic simulation model to compute the flows and pressures in the system. Based on the cost and performance (minimum pressure at nodes, minimum/maximum velocities, travel times, and so on), the solution is assessed and the search method generates a new test solution. The procedure is repeated until some convergence criterion is reached.
Analytical Optimization
Analytical optimization techniques are often introduced in calculus courses. These techniques usually deal with unconstrained problems for which one is trying to obtain the optimal solution to a problem that consists of an objective function alone (that is, without constraints imposed on the solution). The problem of unconstrained optimization of a function of more than one variable (the multivariate case) is concerned with finding the correct combination of the values of the variables to obtain the best value of the objective function. The criteria used for selecting the combination of variables are similar to those used for singlevariable functions but require more complex mathematical techniques (Walski, 2003). Analytical optimization methods do not usually work well for network problems because of the large number of elements involved (pipes, valves, tanks, pumps, etc).
Linear programming
Linear programming (LP) refers to the class of optimization problems in which both the objective function and constraints in (Eq. 9.1) are linear functions that is, the variable's exponent is 1. The knowledge that the optimal solution of a LP problem is an extreme point motivates a special iterative procedure for reaching the optimum called the simplex method. Starting from a feasible extreme point, the simplex method changes the variables to move to an adjacent extreme point where the objective function has a larger value. Movement therefore occurs on the edge of the feasible region along a selected constraint line that is connected to the current extreme point. The procedure selects the next extreme point
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on the basis of the largest gain in the objective function value. It continues in this way until an extreme point is reached for which no further improvement in the objective function is possible (Hillier, 1995) and (Wagner, 1975). One of the greatest advantages of LP over nonlinear programming (NLP) algorithms is that if the optimum exists, LP is guaranteed to find it. Thanks to the advances in computing of the past decade, problems having tens or hundreds of thousands of continuous variables are regularly solved. LP makes it possible to analyze the final solution and find its sensitivity to changes in parameters. However, the assumption of linearity is often not appropriate for real engineering systems, and it is certainly not appropriate for water distribution system optimization. Linear programming techniques work well for pipe sizing problems involving branched systems with onedirectional flow (Walski, 2003).
Nonlinear programming
Nonlinear programming (NLP) problems have the same structure as the general optimization problem given in (Eq. 9.1). However, nonlinear programming refers to the class of optimization problems for which some or all of the problem functions, f(x), g(x), and h(x), are nonlinear with respect to the variables. NLP models more realistically capture certain characteristics of system relations but introduce significant computational difficulties. Nonlinear problems become even more difficult to solve if one or more constraints are involved. Some NLP problems are further complicated by the existence of decision variables that can only take one integer values. Discrete pipe sizes are an example of this. Optimization problems that combine continuous and integer values are referred to as mixedinteger problems and require a special set of techniques such as the Simple BranchandBound (SBB) method (Hillier, 1995). Because of the nonlinear nature of head loss equations and cost functions, various nonlinear programming methods have been used for pipe sizing optimization and optimal pumps scheduling.
Dynamic programming
Dynamic Programming (DP) is a procedure for optimizing a multistage decision process in which a decision is required at each stage. The technique is based on the simple principle of optimality of Bellman (Bellman, 1957), which states that an optimal policy must have the property that regardless of the decisions leading to a particular state, the remaining decisions must constitute an optimal sequence for leaving that state. This technique is appropriate for problems that have the following
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characteristics: a) The problem can be divided into stages with a decision required at each stage; b) Each stage has a number of system states associated with it; c) The decision at one stage transforms that state into a state in the next stage through a state transformation function; d) Given the current state, the optimal decision for each of the remaining states does not depend on the previous states or decisions. Consider the following example, which illustrates the basic principles behind the DP method. Assume that the operation of a water distribution system needs to be optimized over a 24hour period under known demand conditions. If a day is divided into 24 periods, then the decision of how much water to pump into the central reservoir to meet demands and minimize the cost of pumping is made at 24 stages. The reservoir volume will go through different states during the 24 hours (for example, the reservoir could be full initially, then empty, and then refill). Therefore, the system state or the state variable is defined as the states of the reservoir (that is, the reservoir volume). The decision in the example is the volume pumped into the reservoir, and the state transformation function is the continuity equation relating the storage in one time period to the storage in the previous time period. Dynamic programming works well as long as the number of decision variables is very small.
Genetic Algorithms
The theory behind Genetic Algorithms (GAs) was proposed by Holland (Holland, 1975) and further developed in the 1980s by Goldberg (Goldberg, 1989) and others. These methods rely on the collective learning process within a population of individuals, each of which represents a search point in the space of potential solutions. Various applications have been presented since the first works, and GAs have clearly demonstrated their capability to yield good solutions even in the complicated cases of multipeak, discontinuous, and nondifferentiable functions. The following are the steps in a standard GA run: 1. Randomly generate an initial population of solutions. 2. Compute the fitness of each solution in the initial population. 3. Generate a new population using biologically inspired operators: reproduction (crossover) and mutation. 4. Compute fitness of the new solutions.
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5. Stop if the termination condition is reached, or repeat steps 3 through 5 to produce successive generations. Genetic algorithms belong to a class of nondeterministic algorithms that draws on Darwinian evolution theory (Savic, 1997). This search strategy allows GAs to converge rapidly on an optimal or nearoptimal solution while only analyzing a fraction of the number of possible solutions. Although they are not guaranteed to find the global optimum, GAs are generally good at finding "acceptably good" solutions to problems "acceptably quickly." Where specialized techniques exist for solving a particular problem, they are likely to outperform GA in both speed and accuracy of the final result. GAs can be computationally intensive when objective function evaluation requires significant computational resources such as those required for the hydraulic analysis of a large water distribution model.
9.7 FINESSE scheduler for optimal operational scheduling
FINESSE software has an environment for performing enhanced hydraulic modeling including optimal scheduling and other optimization tasks. This calculates optimal control schedules for pumps and valves, and for water production, with respect to specified system constraints, for example reservoir levels. The input data are similar to that of the simulator but also include constraints, electricity tariffs and simulated hydraulics. The scheduler, as with all tools in FINESSE, is general purpose in that it takes any data model of a network in FINESSE and if the model is feasible it calculates the optimal schedules (WSSDMU, 2003). The scheduler has solved other networks such as Kilham (UK), Yorkshire Grid (UK), South Staffordshire water supply system (UK) and Aix Nord/Trévaresse (France) networks (Tischer, 2003). However, FINESSE Pump Scheduler considers only HazenWilliams equation to calculate the elements headloss. DarcyWeisbach equation is not considered for the moment in the Scheduler.
9.7.1 Mathematical principles and problem formulation
Optimal scheduling calculates operational schedules for pumps, valves and treatment works for a given period of time, typically 24 hours, and can be classified as an optimal control problem. Generally speaking, the formulation of the optimal scheduling problems comprises three components (Tischer, 2003), (Walski, 2003), (Ulanicki 1997) and (Yu, 1994):
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 Objective function  Network model  Operational constraints They have to be expressed in the language of mathematical equations. The optimization problem consists in searching the space of input schedules to minimize the cost over a given horizon while satisfying constraints on the output flows and heads. The problem formulation will involve many equations and many variables.
1) Objective function
The objective function typically includes energy cost for pumping and treatment cost for producing a given mass of water. The formula for the energy cost should include a pump efficiency factor. The pumping cost depends on the electrical tariff. There are different pricing options proposed by electrical boards. The tariff is a function of time so there are cheaper and more expensive periods. The optimization problem will be considered over a given time horizon. The operational cost can be expressed by the following equation (Eq. 9.2) containing the two terms corresponding to a unit tariff charge and the treatment cost respectively; other costs can be added as required.
φ=
∑
tf
j∈ J p
gq j (t )Δ h j (t ) γ (t ) × dt + ∫ η q j (t ), c j (t ) t0
j p
(
)
∑ ∫ γ (t ) × q (t )dt
j∈ J s j s j s t0
tf
( Eq .
9 .2 )
Where: o Ф o Jp o Js
gq j (t )Δh j (t ) o = electrical power consumed by a j pump station at any η q j (t ), c j (t )
= total operational cost = set of indices for pump stations = set of indices for treatment works (sources)
(
)
o o
o o o o
point of time g q jΔ h j = mechanical power required to increase the head of the j pump flow q by Δh j , g is the gravity constant η(qj , cj) = pump efficiency, depends on the pump flow qj and the control variable cj . The latter vector can represent number of pumps on and/or pump speed. Typically η(qj , cj) is a quadratic function of qj qsj = water treatment work flow (sources) c j (t ) = number of pumpson and/or pump speed j = unit electricity tariff γ p (t) γ sj (t) = volumetric treatment cost for j treatment works
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2)
Network model
The hydraulic model has been formulated in Chapter 5 (see section 5.3) :
dh r = − S − 1 (h r ) q r (t ) dt
Δ h = R (q (t ) ) q (t )
Λ q (t ) = − d
(Eq. 9.3)
⎡Δ h ⎤ ΓΔ h = ⎢ ⎥ ⎣ 0 ⎦
The fundamental requirement in an optimal scheduling problem is that all calculated variables satisfy the hydraulic model equations. The network equations are nonlinear and play the role of equality constraints in the optimization problem. In the simulation task the operational schedule were known, in the optimal scheduling task the schedules for pumps, valves, and water production (treatment works schedules) are unknown and they are called decision variables.
3) Operational constraints
The operational control constraints reflect requirements for a physical system to remain in a feasible state. They include: Constraints on operational variables, e.g. maximum number of pumps in a pump station. • Treatment work requirements reflecting production technology such as: limited flow rate, limited change rate, limited total production. • Reservoir levels lower and upper bounds. • Pressure requirements at critical nodes.
•
These constraints are linear and are very easy to handle by numerical algorithms. The major task for operational control is to keep the system states within their assigned limits (feasible region). Practical requirements are translated from grammatical statements into mathematical equalities and inequalities. The control variables such as number of pumpson, pump speed; or valve positions are constrained by lower and upper bounds determined by the construction of the control components:
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cmin ≤ c(t) ≤ cmax
(Eq. 9.4)
Constraints on the control variable corresponding to water production reflect the properties of the water treatment processes. These may be instantaneous constraints:
qsmin ≤ qs(t) ≤ qsmax for t ∈ [ t0,tf ]
(Eq. 9.5)
The reservoir levels (water network state variables) are constrained in order to prevent the reservoirs from emptying or overflowing. These may also be used to maintain adequate reserve storage for emergency purposes:
hrmin ≤ hr(t) ≤ hrmax for t ∈ [ t0,tf ]
(Eq. 9.6)
Similar constraints must be applied to the heads at critical connection nodes in order to maintain required pressures throughout the water network:
hcmin ≤ hc(t) ≤ hcmax 4) Decision variables for t ∈ [ t0,tf ]
(Eq. 9.7)
The network scheduling problem consists in searching the space of decision variables to minimize the objective function over a given time horizon, whilst satisfying the constraints. The decision variables are operational schedules c(t) for the control elements (e.g. pumps and valves), and water production schedules q s (t ) . For given control schedules ( c(t ), q s (t ) ) the network model equations can be solved and the values of all internal variables evaluated. This enables the calculation of the cost (value of the objective function Ф), and also the validation that all operational constraints are satisfied. Decision variables such as pump speed, valve position and pump flow are naturally continuous while others such as the number of pumps switched on are integer.
9.7.2 Transformation of the network scheduling problem into a nonlinear programming problem
In order to solve the above optimization equations (objective function, network model equations, and operational control constraints) numerically, the problem is converted into a nonlinear programming problem using time discretization. The time horizon [t 0 , t f ] is replaced by a
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discrete grid {t 0 , t1 , t 2 ,..., t K } where t K = t f and Δt = t k +1 − t k is a timestep. The time grid can be referred to as {0, 1, 2, ..., K } . The integrals in the objective function (Eq. 9.2) are replaced by finite sums in (Eq. 9.7):
gq j (k )Δh j (k ) φ = ∑ ∑ γ (k ) × × Δt + η q j (k ), c j (k ) j∈J p k = 0
k =K j p
(
)
j∈ J s k = 0
∑ ∑γ
k =K
j s
(k ) × qsj (k ) × Δ t
( Eq. 9.8)
The differential equation describing reservoir storage is discretized using a simple Euler scheme in (Eq. 9.9):
dhr = − S −1 (hr ) qr (t ) ⇒ dt hr (k + 1) − hr (k ) = −Δ t × S −1 qr (k )
for k = 0,1,..., K − 1 ( Eq . 9.9)
The algebraic equations (Eq. 9.3) are transformed by direct replacement of the continuous argument (t) by the discrete variable (k). Thus (Eq. 9.8) is an objective function of the nonlinear programming problem, (Eq. 9.3) and (Eq. 9.9) represent equality constraints, and [(Eq. 9.4), (Eq. 9.5), (Eq. 9.6), and (Eq. 9.7)] represents inequality constraints. In this interpretation, each equation is a collection of constraints for each timestep k=0,…,K1, so the total number of constraints is equal to the number of equations multiplied by a number of timesteps. Similarly, the number of variables is multiplied by the number of timesteps, and subsequently the decision vector has the following structure:
x = [cT (0), qs (0), hc (0), hr (0), qT (0), qr (0), ..., cT (K − 1), qs (K − 1), hc (K − 1), hr (K − 1), qT (K − 1), qr (K − 1)]
T T T T T T T
(Eq. 9.10)
In the transformed nonlinear programming problem all variables are decision variables and are iterated during the numerical procedure.
9.7.3 The equationoriented programming language
Substantial progress was made in the 1950s and 1960s with the development of algorithms and computer codes to solve large mathematical programming problems. The number of applications of these tools in the 1970s was less than expected, however, because the solution procedures formed only a small part of the overall modeling effort. A large part of the time required to develop a model involved data preparation and transformation and report preparation. Each model required many hours of analyst and programming time to organize the data and write the programs
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that would transform the data into the form required by the mathematical programming optimizers. Furthermore, it was difficult to detect and eliminate errors because the programs that performed the data operations were only accessible to the specialist who wrote them and not to the analysts in charge of the project (Brooke, 1992). There are very efficient modeling environments and solvers for resolving largescale nonlinear programming problems. The General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) is a highlevel modeling system for mathematical programming and optimization. It consists of a language compiler and a stable of integrated highperformance solvers. GAMS is tailored for complex, large scale modeling applications, and allows to build large maintainable models that can be adapted quickly to new situations. GAMS is available for use on personal computers, workstations, mainframes and supercomputers (Brooke, 1992), (Brooke, 1998), and (Ulanicki, 1997). The GAMS programming language is a declarative language in that it declares what the problem is, rather than how to solve it. The GAMS compiler and a “Solver” automatically accomplish the latter task. The GAMS program is automatically compiled to a form that can be executed by numerical solvers. The results from the numerical solver are automatically returned and GAMS outputs the results. CONOPT is a nonlinear programming solver, which is based on the Generalized Reduced Gradient algorithm or originally in French “Gradient Réduit Généralisé” (GRG) first suggested by Abadie and Carpentier and was presented in English in 1969 (Abadie, 1969). Details on the algorithm can be found in Drud (1985 and 1992). Generalized Reduced Gradient is the generalization of Wolfe's reduced gradient method to a set of nonlinear constraints. Hence it has the advantage of performing iterations in a reduced state space. Some variables are changed freely by the algorithm (superbasic variables) and some are calculated from the equality constraints of the problem (basic variables). The gradient is calculated only with respect to the superbasic variables. GRG algorithms are efficient for models with few degrees of freedom (Ladson, 1986) and (Drud, 1992). CONOPT can solve the optimal scheduling problem in reasonable operational time for mediumtolarge sized networks (Drud, 1996). The FINESSE scheduler for optimal scheduling problem and solution of different optimization tasks is based on the GAMS modeling language and the CONOPT solver. GAMS has been integrated into FINESSE by using a Dynamic Link Library (Tischer, 2003). The modeling environment includes previously prepared templates for different types of tasks. In order to solve a specific network the templates are filled with data from the data store. The optimal scheduling problem can be solved for any network topology. Because there is plenty of existing network models, as
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GINAS input data files (Coulbeck, 1985) and (Ulanicki, 1999), the software is equipped with an auxiliary module to import existing models into the Data Store. If a model contains too many pipes it can be automatically simplified by a special network simplification. The scheduler is general purpose. If a specific network is to be solved then modeling code is generated from the network data model stored in the FINESSE database. The optimization procedure is initiated by the user by operating the user interface. Data is transferred from FINESSE to the GAMS manager via the FINESSE data interface library. The GAMS manager produces the GAMS source file containing a complete and concise formulation of the problem for the specific network. The GAMS executable is then called to compile and execute the source file. The GAMS software environment itself controls the solver via its solver interface. When the solution is completed GAMS outputs the results into an output file according to instructions given in the source file. This output file is read by the GAMS manager and translated back to FINESSE via the FINESSE Data Interface Library (DMUWSS, 2003).
9.7.4 Selection of a starting point
An important requirement for nonlinear programming is the selection of a starting point for numerical iterations. Nonlinear programming belongs to a class of “hill climbing” local search algorithms and the starting point should be as close as possible to the final solution. All variables shown in the vector (Eq. 9.10) have to be initialized. Since GAMS and CONOPT solver are integrated into FINESSE environment with a common data structure, the simulator is used to provide an initial starting point for the network scheduler. This facilitates the solution of the initialization problem in a very efficient manner. The user provides an initial guess for water production (qs(t)) and pump schedules (c(t)), which are simulated and the hydraulic results passed to the scheduler as a starting point. In operational use, the initial schedules can be taken from historical data (Drud, 1994) and (Ulanicki, 1999).
9.7.5 Continuous relaxation of the network scheduling problem
Problems containing both continuous and integer variables are called MixedInteger problems. The MixedInteger problems and the algorithms for solving them will briefly be presented in the next section. Examples of such problem in water distribution network are: optimal design of water distribution network (Hossein, 2006), optimal operation schedules of a water distribution network (Bounds, 2005), and discretetime operative planning problem when operating schedules are specified typically in
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hourly intervals (Burgschweiger, 2004). The FINESSE Pump Scheduler can produce both continuous and discrete schedules. Decision variables such as pump speed, valve position and pump flow are naturally continuous while others such as the number of pumps switched on are integer. The energy savings are mainly obtained through reservoirs that enable the shifting of pumping between expensive and cheap tariff periods. The reservoirs can be filled during the cheap tariff periods and used to offset pumping during expensive periods. The change in a reservoir volume over some period of time (timestep) is governed by its net inflow/outflow during that period, which in turn affects the average flow pumped during the period. Using this practical observation it is assumed that the integer decision variables can vary continuously within constraints. The scheduler in FINESSE initially assumes that the problem is a purely continuous one to calculate the optimal pump flows. The nonlinear programming algorithm efficiently solves this relaxed continuous optimization problem. The relaxed optimal continuous solution is cheaper than any optimal discrete solution (Фc < Фd). The discrete solution that is found in the neighborhood of the continuous solution is assumed to be close to the optimal discrete solution (Ulanicki, 1999). In the later version of FINESSE, a discrete scheduler is employed in order to translate the continuous solution into an integer solution for local operational use. As a starting point, the reservoir trajectories are taken from the continuous solution. For each tariff period, a Simple BranchandBound algorithm (SBB) is applied to follow the original reservoir trajectories as closely as possible. However, the SBB solver is not available at the SCP. SBB is a GAMS solver based on a combination of the standard branchandbound method known from mixed integer linear programming and nonlinear programming solvers supported by GAMS. Initially, the Relaxed Mixed Integer Nonlinear Programming (RMINLP) model is solved using the initial values provided by the modeler. SBB will stop immediately if the RMINLP model is unbounded or infeasible or fails. If all discrete variables in the RMINLP model are integer, SBB will return this solution as the optimal integer solution. Otherwise, the current solution is stored and the BranchandBound procedure will start (SBB User Manual) and (John, 2000). The SBB method is the basic workhorse technique for solving integer and discrete problem. The method is based on the observation that the enumeration of integer solution has a tree structure. The main idea of BranchandBound is to avoid growing the whole tree as much as possible. The name of the method comes from the “branching” that happens when a node is selected for further growth and the next generation of children of that node is created. The “bounding” comes from the bound on the best value attained by growing a node is estimated.
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9.7.6
Solution approaches to integer programming problems (IP)
LP and NLP problems assume continuity of the solution region where decision variables can equal whole numbers or any other real number. However, in engineering problems fractional solutions are not always acceptable. Integer programming (IP) requires a subset of the decision variables to take on integer values. IP also permits modeling of fixed costs, logical conditions, discrete levels of resources and nonlinear functions. Problems containing integer variables fall into several classes. A problem in which all variables are integer is a pure IP problem. A problem with some integer and some continuous variables, is a Mixed IP problem (MIP). A problem in which the integer variables are restricted to equal either zero or one is called a zeroone IP problem. There are pure zeroone IP problems where all variables are zeroone and mixed zeroone IP problems containing both zeroone and continuous (McCarl, 1997). IP problems are notoriously difficult to solve due to their combinatorial nature and potential existence of multiple local minima in the search space (Vladimir, 2003). They can be solved by several very different algorithms. Today, algorithm selection is an art as some algorithms work better on some problems. After the invention of LP and NLP, those examining LP relatively quickly came to the realization that it would be desirable to solve problems which had some integer variables (Dantzig, 1960). This led to algorithms for the solution of pure IP problems. The first algorithms were cutting plane algorithms as developed by Dantzig, Fulkerson and Johnson (Dantzig, 1954) and Gomory (Gomory, 1958). Land and Doig subsequently introduced the branch and bound algorithm (Land, 1960). More recently, implicit enumeration (Balas, 1965), decomposition (Benders, 1962), lagrangian relaxation (Geoffrion, 1974) and heuristic (Zanakis, 1981) approaches have been used. Unfortunately, after 20 years of experience involving literally thousands of studies none of the available algorithms have been shown to perform satisfactorily for all IP problems (Von Randow, 1982). However, certain types of algorithms are good at solving certain types of problems. The section below briefly reviews these approaches.
A) Rounding
Rounding is the most naive approach to IP problem solution. The rounding approach involves the solution of the problem as a LP problem followed by an attempt to round the solution to an integer one by dropping all the fractional parts; or by searching out satisfactory solutions wherein the variable values are adjusted to nearby larger or smaller integer values.
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Rounding is probably the most common approach to solving IP problems. In general, rounding is often practical, but it should be used with care. One should compare the rounded and unrounded solutions to see whether after rounding: a) the constraints are adequately satisfied; and b) whether the difference between the optimal LP and the post rounding objective function value is reasonably small. If so, the formal IP algorithms are usually not cost effective and the rounded solution can be used. On the other hand, if one finds the rounded objective function to be significantly altered or the constraints violated from a pragmatic viewpoint, then a formal IP exercise needs to be undertaken (McCarl, 1997).
B) Cutting planes
The first formal IP algorithms involved the concept of cutting planes. Cutting planes remove part of the feasible region without removing integer solution points. The basic idea behind a cutting plane is that the optimal integer point is close to the optimal LP solution, but does not fall at the constraint intersection so additional constraints need to be imposed. Consequently, constraints are added to force the noninteger LP solution to be infeasible without eliminating any integer solutions. The cutting plane algorithm continually adds such constraints until an integer solution is obtained. Several points need to be made about cutting plane approaches. First, many cuts may be required to obtain an integer solution. Second, the first integer solution found is the optimal solution. This solution is discovered after only enough cuts have been added to yield an integer solution. Consequently, if the solution algorithm runs out of time or space the modeler is left without an acceptable solution (this is often the case). Third, given comparative performance in comparison with other algorithms, cutting plane approaches have faded in popularity (Dantzig, 1954) and (Gomory, 1958).
C) BranchandBound
The second solution approach developed was the branch and bound algorithm. Branch and bound, originally introduced by Land and Doig, pursues a divideandconquer strategy. The algorithm starts with a LP solution and also imposes constraints to force the LP solution to become an integer solution much as do cutting planes. However, branch and bound constraints are upper and lower bounds on variables. The branch and bound solution procedure generates two problems (branches) after each LP solution. Each problem excludes the unwanted noninteger solution, forming an increasingly more tightly constrained LP problem. There are several decisions required. One must both decide which variable to branch
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upon and which problem to solve (branch to follow). When one solves a particular problem, one may find an integer solution. However, one cannot be sure it is optimal until all problems have been examined. The branch and bound approach is the most commonly used general purpose IP solution algorithm (Beale, 1977) and (Lawler, 1966). It is implemented in many codes including all of those interfaced with GAMS. However, its use can be expensive. The algorithm does yield intermediate solutions which are usable although not optimal. Often the branch and bound algorithm will come up with near optimal solutions quickly but will then spend a lot of time verifying optimality (Land, 1960).
D) Lagrangian relaxation
Lagrangian relaxation (Geoffrion, 1974) is another area of IP algorithmic development. Lagrangian relaxation refers to a procedure in which some of the constraints are relaxed into the objective function using an approach motivated by Lagrangian multipliers. The main idea is to remove difficult constraints from the problem so the integer programs are much easier to solve. The trick then is to choose the right constraints to relax and to develop values for the Lagrange multipliers leading to the appropriate solution. Lagrangian Relaxation has been used in two settings: to improve the performance of bounds on solutions; and to develop solutions which can be adjusted directly or through heuristics so they are feasible in the overall problem (Fisher, 1981). An important Lagrangian Relaxation result is that the relaxed problem provides an upper bound on the solution to the unrelaxed problem at any stage. Lagrangian Relaxation has been heavily used in branch and bound algorithms to derive upper bounds for a problem to see whether further traversal down that branch is worthwhile.
E) Benders decomposition
Another algorithm for IP is called Benders Decomposition. This algorithm solves mixed integer programs via structural exploitation. Benders developed the procedure, thereafter called Benders Decomposition, which decomposes a mixed integer problem into two problems which are solved iteratively  an integer master problem and a linear subproblem. The success of the procedure involves the structure of the subproblem and the choice of the subproblem. The procedure can work very poorly for certain structures. The real art of utilizing Benders decomposition involves the recognition of appropriate problems and/or problem structures which will converge rapidly. The most common reason to use Benders is to decompose large mixed integer problem into a small,
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difficult master problem and a larger simple linear program. This allows the solution of the problem by two pieces of software which individually would not be adequate for the overall problem but collectively are sufficient for the resultant pieces. In addition, the decomposition may be used to isolate particular easytosolve subproblem structures (Benders, 1962).
F) Heuristics
Many IP problems are combinatorial and difficult to solve by nature. In fact, the study of NP complete problems (Papadimitrou, 1982) has shown extreme computational complexity for problems such as the traveling salesman problem. Such computational difficulties have led to a large number of heuristics. These heuristics (Zanakis, 1981) are used when the quality of the data does not merit the generation of exact optimal solutions; a simplified model has been used, and/or when a reliable exact method is not available, computationally attractive, and/or affordable. Arguments for heuristics are also presented regarding improving the performance of an optimizer where a heuristic may be used to save time in a branch and bound code, or if the problem is repeatedly solved. Many IP heuristics have been developed, some of which are specific to particular types of problems. Generally, heuristics perform well on special types of problems, quite often coming up with errors of smaller than two percent. Heuristics also do not necessarily reveal the true optimal solution, and in any problem, one is uncertain as to how far one is from the optimal solution.
G) Structural exploitation
Years of experience and thousands of papers on IP have indicated that generalpurpose IP algorithms do not work satisfactorily for all IP problems. The most promising developments in the last several years have involved structural exploitation, where the particular structure of a problem has been used in the development of the solution algorithm. Such approaches have been the crux of the development of a number of heuristics, the Benders Decomposition approaches, Lagrangian Relaxation and a number of problem reformulation approaches. Specialized branch and bound algorithms adapted to particular problems have also been developed (Fuller, 1976) and (Glover, 1978). The application of such algorithms has often led to spectacular results, with problems with thousands of variables being solved in seconds of computer time (Geoffriones, 1974). The main mechanisms for structural exploitation are to develop an algorithm especially tuned to a particular problem or, more
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generally, to transform a problem into a simpler problem to solve.
H) Other solution algorithms and computer algorithms
The above characterization of solution algorithms is not exhaustive. A field as vast as IP has spawned many other types of algorithms and algorithmic approaches. Genetic algorithms (GA) are powerful tools for solving IP problems (Vladimir, 2003). These methods do not require gradient or Hessian information. However, to reach an optimal solution with a high degree of confidence, they typically require a large number of analyses during the optimization search. Performance of these methods is even more of an issue for problems that include continuous variables. Several studies have concentrated on improving the reliability and efficiency of GAs. Hybrid algorithms formed by the combination of a GA with local search methods provide increased performance when compared to a GA with a discrete encoding of real numbers or local search alone (Seront, 2000).
Integer Programming softwares:
Recent developments in integer–programming software systems have tremendously improved our ability to solve large–scale instances. Today, instances with thousands of integer variables are solved reliably on a personal computer and high quality solutions. The basis of state–of–the– art integer–programming systems is a linear–programming based Branch– and–Bound algorithm (Atamturk, 2005). The most known software packages available for solving IPs are listed here. Complete coverage of these softwares is far beyond the scope of this thesis and the interested reader could consult:
http://wwwfp.mcs.anl.gov/otc/Guide/SoftwareGuide/Categories/intprog.html
IP softwares list: 1. CPLEX : linear, quadratically constrained and mixed integer programming. 2. SBB : Simple Branchand Bound Solver GAMS 3. Excel and Quattro Pro Solvers : spreadsheetbased linear, integer and nonlinear programming. 4. FortMP : linear and mixed integer quadratic programming. 5. LAMPS : linear and mixedinteger programming. 6. LINDO Callable Library : linear, mixedinteger and quadratic programming. 7. LINGO : linear, integer, nonlinear programming with modeling language.
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8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19.
MILP88 : mixedinteger linear programming. MINTO : mixedinteger linear programming. MIPIII : mixed integer programming. MPSIII : linear and mixed integer programming (includes OML, WHIZARD, and DATAFORM). OML : linear and mixedinteger programming. OSL : linear, quadratic and mixedinteger programming. PROC LP : linear and integer programming. Q01SUBS : quadratic programming for matrices. QAPP : quadratic assignment problems. What'sBest : linear and mixed integer programming. WHIZARD : linear and mixedinteger programming. XPRESSMP : from Dash Associateslinear and integer programming. Discretization by postprocessing of continuous solution
9.7.7
The FINESSE Pump Scheduler does assume that the number of pumps switched on can vary continuously between constraints. For example, 3.73 pumps switched on would be an acceptable solution. However, the continuous solution can be transformed into a discrete solution by simple postprocessing. The idea behind the postprocessing approach that I will present in the next paragraphs to discretize the continuous pump schedules, is that for every timestep the continuous number of pumps turned on is rounded up or down and, thus, the nearest discrete solution is chosen such that the deviation from the optimal reservoir trajectory is smallest. Owning to the fact that the optimal pump schedule is continuous solution; therefore, any discrete solution will be less optimal, either in terms of total cost, or in terms of hydraulic behavior of the system. We assume that the best discrete solution in terms of hydraulic behavior lies in the neighborhood of the continuous solution. When we round the continuous number of pumps up or down, for a given timestep, one parameter (or more) in the system must be therefore adjusted to eliminate the effect of the rounding on the hydraulic behavior of the system. In other words, the pump’s head and total discharge must be as those of the continuous solution for the given timestep. Here, I will illustrate how one can transform the continuous solution into discrete solution for the pump schedule by adjusting one of these parameters:  Valve aperture,  Pump speed, or  Timestep length
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1. Discretization by: Valve aperture adjustment
In this approach, when we round the number of pumps up or down, we adjust the valve aperture (or opening) mounted just at the outlet of the pumping station (Figure 9.2). When we round up the pump curve will move upward and since we attempt to maintain the discharge obtained by the continuous solution, hence, we decrease the valve aperture to increase system headloss and shift the system curve upward such that the two curves intersect at the same discharge obtained by the continuous solution but the pump head will increase. Conversely, when we round down the pump curve will move downward and to maintain the discharge obtained by the continuous solution, we increase the valve aperture to reduce system headloss and shift the system curve downward such that the two curves intersect at the same discharge obtained by the continuous solution but the pump head will decrease. The criterion for rounding up or down is the change in the valve aperture (∆vv) such that whichever rounding results in smallest ∆vv will be selected as the discrete solution. This means the deviation from the pump optimal head is therefore smallest. The discretization procedure is shown in 0. This procedure is repeated for each timestep. Figure 9.2 : Discretization by valve aperture adjustment
120 1.0 Pump 2.0 Pumps 100 2.7 Pumps
80
Hc
Hup Δ h vup
3.0 Pumps Sy s tem Curv e_2.7 Sy s tem Curv e_3.0 Sy s tem Curv e_2.0
H (m)
60
Δ h vdown
Hdown
40
20
1.0 pump
0 0 50 100
2.0 pumps Qc
150 200
2.7 pumps
250
3.0 pumps
300 350
Q (l/s)
Pump Qcont , Hcont
Valve hv, vv
Qcont
⎛ Qp⎞ hv = kv ⎜ ⎟ ⎜v ⎟ ⎝ v⎠
1.852
h v : valve headloss, k v : valve coefficien t v V : valve aperture
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Figure 9.3 : Valve adjustment approach
Input From Continuous solution
Ncont = number of pumps Qcont = total discharge Hcont = pump head h cont = valve headloss v v cont = valve aperture v
Calculations Nup =Roundup(Ncont)
⎛Q ⎛Q ⎞ H up = a ⎜ cont ⎟ + b⎜ cont ⎜ N ⎜ N up ⎟ ⎝ up ⎠ ⎝ up Δh v = H up − H cont
2
Ndown =Rounddown(Ncont)
⎞ ⎟+c ⎟ ⎠
⎛Q ⎞ ⎛Q H down = a ⎜ cont ⎟ + b⎜ cont ⎜N ⎟ ⎜N ⎝ down ⎝ down ⎠ down Δh v = H cont − H down h down = h cont − Δh down v v v
2
⎞ ⎟+c ⎟ ⎠
h up = h cont + Δh up v v v
v up = v kv h up v Q cont
( )
0.54
v down = v
kv h down v Q cont
(
)
0.54
Δv up = v cont  v up v v v
Δv down = v down  v cont v v v
Discretization
Nup or Ndown?
if Δv down > Δv up then N disc = N up v v if Δv down < Δv up then N disc = N down v v and v disc = v up v v and v disc = v down v v
Output
N disc and v disc v
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2. Discretization by: Pump speed adjustment:
Instead of adjusting the valve aperture one can adjust the pump speed (RPM) to discretize the pump continuous schedule. If the pump speed is fixed then the discretization by valve aperture adjustment is the best choice. The advantage of the pump speed adjustment approach is that both pump discharge and head for discrete solution will be the same as those for the continuous solution (Figure 9.4). When we round up the pump curve will move upward and since we attempt to maintain the pump discharge and head obtained by the continuous solution, hence, we decrease the pump speed (RPM) to shift the pump curve downward such that the pump and system curves intersect at the same discharge and head obtained by the continuous. On the other hand, when we round down the pump curve will move downward and since we attempt to maintain the pump discharge and head obtained by the continuous solution, hence, we increase the pump speed (RPM) to shift the pump curve upward such that the pump and system curves intersect at the same discharge and head obtained by the continuous. The criterion for rounding up or down is the change in the pump speed (or speed ration Sr) such that whichever rounding results in smallest ∆Sr will be selected as the discrete solution. This means the deviation from the pump optimal speed is therefore smallest. The discretization procedure is shown in Figure 9.5. This procedure is repeated for each timestep. However, before all we have to derive the equation from which the speed ratio (Sr) is calculated. Figure 9.4 : Discretization by pump speed adjustment
140
Sr =
Pump operating speed RPM = Pump nominal speed RPM nominal
2.7 Pumps_Sr=1
120 100
System curve System Curve
2Pump_Sr=1.075 3Pumps_Sr=0.955
80
Hpump 3Pumps_Sr=0.955 2.7Pumps_Sr=1
H (m)
60
40
2Pumps_Sr=1.075
20
0 0 50 100
Qpump
150 200 250 300 350
Q (l/s)
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Speed ration (Sr)
 Pump equation at nominal speed (RPMnominal) is approximated by quadratic equation: ⇒ H nominal = a Q 2 nominal + b Q nominal + c  If N pumps are configured in parallel, the pump equation will be:
⎛Q ⎞ ⎛Q ⎞ ⇒ H = a ⎜ nominal ⎟ + b ⎜ nominal ⎟ + c ⎝ N ⎠ ⎝ N ⎠
2
 If the pump operates at speed RPM different form RPMnominal :
Affinity Law ⇒ Q Qnominal ( Nelik, 1999): H H nominal ⎛ RPM ⎞ ⎟ = Sr 2 =⎜ ⎜ RPM ⎟ nominal ⎠ ⎝
2
RPM = = Sr and RPMnominal
Then the pump equation is written like this:
⇒ H Sr
2
Q ⎛ ⎞ = a⎜ ⎟ ⎝ N × Sr ⎠
2
2
Q ⎛ ⎞ + b⎜ ⎜ N × Sr ⎟ + c ⎟ ⎝ ⎠
2
⎛ Q ⎞ ⇒ H = a⎜ ⎟ ⎝ N ⎠
⎛ Q ⎞ + b⎜ ⎟ × Sr + c × Sr ⎝ N ⎠
We rewrite this equation for Sr:
ˆ ⇒ a Sr
2
ˆ ˆ + b Sr + c = 0
2
b Q ⎛ Q ⎞ ˆ ˆ ˆ Where : a = c , b = , c = a⎜ ⎟ N ⎝ N ⎠  By solving this quadratic equation we obtain:
− H
Sr
=
− bˆ ±
ˆ ˆ bˆ 2 − 4 a c ˆ 2 a
 Then we calculate Sr when the number of pumps is rounded up and when it is rounded down. The approach is shown in Figure 9.5.
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Figure 9.5 : Pump speed adjustment approach
Input From Continuous solution
Ncont = number of pumps Qcont = total discharge Hcont = pump head a, b, c = pump coefficients RPM cont = pump operating
Srcont = speed ratio RPM nominal = pump nominal speed RPMmax= pump maximum speed RPMmin= pump minimum speed
Calculations
ˆ a = c b Q cont ˆ b = N up
Nup =Roundup(Ncont)
ˆ a = c b Q cont ˆ b = N down
cont
Ndown =Rounddown(Ncont)
⎛ Q con t ˆ c = a⎜ ⎜ N up ⎝
⎞ ⎟ ⎟ ⎠
2
− H
⎛ Q con t ˆ c = a⎜ ⎜ N down ⎝
⎞ ⎟ ⎟ ⎠
2
− H
cont
ˆ ˆˆ b 2 − 4ac Sr up = ˆ 2a Δ Sr up = Sr cont − Sr up
RPMup = Srup × RPMnominal
ˆ −b±
ˆ ˆ ˆˆ − b ± b 2 − 4 ac Sr down = ˆ 2a Δ Sr down = Sr down − Sr cont
RPM down = Srdown × RPM nominal
Discretization
Nup or Ndown?
If RPMup > RPMmax then Ndisc = Ndown and RPMdisc = RPMdown Else If RPMdown < RPMmin then Ndisc = N up and RPMdisc = RPMup Else If ΔSrdown < ΔSrup then Ndisc = Ndown and RPMdisc = RPMdown Else If ΔSrdown > ΔSrup then Ndisc = Nup and RPMdisc = RPMup
Output and RPM disc
N disc
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3. Discretization by: Timestep adjustment:
The pump optimal schedule is calculated for a given period of time, typically one day or one week with regular timestep Ts. Instead of adjusting the valve aperture or pump speed, we can discretize the pump schedule by adjusting the timestep, for example, if Ncont=2.7 pumps turned on for a given timestep (Ts) can be realized by a combination of 2 and 3 pumps switched over the timestep. The time lap for which the 2 pumps will be turned on and the time lap for which the 3 pumps will be turned on are calculated such that the discharged volume of water during the Ts, by a combination of 2 and 3 pumps switched over the timestep, equals to the discharged volume of water when 2.7 pumps are ON, and also the pump head should be the same in both cases as much as possible. In general, over the timestep (Ts), the pumps are operated such that we turn on Nup=Roundup (Ncont) pumps for a certain time (tup) less than or equal (Ts), then we turn on Ndown=Rounddown(Ncont) for the rest of the timestep (tdown=Tstup). As mentioned previously, tup and tdown are calculated such that the volume of water delivered to the system and the pump head during the timestep Ts equal that of the continuous solution. The discharged volume is calculated like this:
Discharged volume = Qcont × Ts = qup × tup + qdown × t down
Where: Qcont = pumps total discharge obtained from the continuous solution qup = pumps total discharge when Ncont rounded up qdown = pumps total discharge when Ncont rounded down  And since the pump head assumed to be the same:
Discharge per pump = ⇒ q up = N up N cont × Q cont
q Q cont q = up = down N cont N up N down and q down = N down × Q cont N cont
 And the sum of tup and tdown must be equal to timestep Ts:
Ts
= t up + t down
 We solve for tup and tdown :
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t up = ( N cont − N down ) × Ts
and
t down = (N up − N cont )× Ts
 If Ts =1 hour then tup will be equal to the decimal portion of the Ncont. The discretization procedure is shown in Figure 9.6. Figure 9.6 : Timestep adjustment approach
Input From Continuous solution Ncont = number of pumps
Qcont = total discharge Ts =regular timestep
Calculations Nup =Roundup(Ncont)
Ndown =Rounddown(Ncont)
tup = ( N cont − N down ) × Ts tdown = (N up − N cont )× Ts
Output ( Nup , tup )
Discretization
( Ndown, tdown )
It is clear that the discretization by adjusting timestep of the optimization will produce solution with irregular timesteps.  Yet, the postprocessing approachs are useful heuristics but depend on either a local valve at the pump discharge, the pump being able to vary its speed, or the pump being durable with rapid switching for small timesteps.
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9.7.8
Remarks on GAMS/CONOPT Solver for optimal operational scheduling
In the following section I will consider two network examples and use the Pump Scheduler to optimize them. The objective here is to check how good the GAMS/CONOPT solver is for solving an optimization problem. Some interesting remarks have been observed and they are presented hereafter.
1. Network configuration
Let’s consider the following network model created in FINESSE as shown in Figure 9.7: Figure 9.7 : Network configuration example 1
(a) (b)
deadend pipe
The scheme in Figure 9.7a is the original network, and the scheme in Figure 9.7b is exactly the same network except that we added “deadend” pipe at the suction side of the pumping station as indicated by the arrow on the scheme. However, this deadend pipe has a negligible length and diameter and thus it does not change a bit the hydraulic operation of the network. I attempted to find the optimal pump schedule for this network using Pump Scheduler interface. The starting point (reservoirs levels,
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pumps and valves settings) is the same for both configurations. The optimization done here is continuous; this means that the number of pumps in operation can be any real number from 0 to nmax, and thus, for example, 2.3 pumps in operation is feasible. For the original network in Figure 9.7a, the GAMS/CONOPT solver was not able to find the optimal solution and instead an “Infeasible Solution” was found and the total costs were 11.247 k€, and it took 3 seconds to find this solution. For the second network in Figure 9.7b the solver, however, was able to find the optimal solution and the total cost was 6.228 k€, and it took 8 seconds to find this optimal solution. If one tries to change the location of the deadend pipe the Solver will find optimal solution if and only if the deadend pipe is connected to one of the three nodes that have a black mark in the center as shown on Figure 9.7b. Let’s take also another network example and do the same thing as in the above example. The scheme in Figure 9.8a is the original network, and the scheme in Figure 9.8b is exactly the same network except that we added “deadend” pipe to the reservoir and at the suction side of the pumping station as indicated by the arrow on the scheme. For both configurations and the same starting point (reservoirs levels, pumps and valves settings), the GAMS/CONOPT was able to find optimal solution for both of them but the optimal solution was not the same solution for each. The total costs for the network in Figure 9.8a were 542.0 €, and the total costs for the network in Figure 9.8a were 174.0 €. If one tries to change the location of the deadend pipe, the Solver will find the 174.0 €optimal solution when the deadend pipe is connected to any node in the network except for the node immediately at the discharge side of the pump where the 542.0 €optimal solution is found. Figure 9.8 : Network configuration example 2
(a) (b)
deadend pipe
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In spite of the fact that the two networks are hydraulically the same but it seems that they are mathematically not the same for GAMS/CONOPT Solver. In parallel, these network models were sent to WSS at DMU to reexamine them and they have made some investigations into FINESSE and the scheduler. It was found that the main problem is that we are using an old version of GAMS and CONOPT (1999) at SCP. While at DMU they are currently using a later version of GAMS and CONOPT (2003). This means that they cannot reproduce our results exactly. They got infeasible solutions for the networks in Figure 9.7a and Figure 9.7b. However, when they modified the starting point of the pump stations then they got an optimal solution and the cost was 6.228 k€ for both networks in Figure 9.7a and Figure 9.7b (the deadend pipe had no effect), this is exactly the same cost we got here by the old version of GAMS and CONOPT when the deadend pipe is added. For the networks in Figure 9.8a and Figure 9.8b they did get optimal solutions without modifying the starting point, and the cost was of 174.0 k€ for the network in Figure 9.8a, and it was of 161.4 € for the network in Figure 9.8b. In this case even the results of the new version of GAMS and CONOPT were affected by the deadend pipe. However, they got the same optimal solution that we got by the old version of GAMS and CONOPT when the deadend pipe is added (174.0 €). The deadend pipe does not affect the hydraulic operation of the network and should have zero flow and zero head difference but this may not be true during the optimization because there may be a numerical inaccuracy.
2. Starting points
Not only the network configuration affects the performance of the GAMS/CONOPT Solver but also the starting points, i.e. the initial hydraulic conditions including: reservoirs levels, valves apertures, number of onpumps, have an effect on the optimal solution. For the same networks in Figure 9.7 and Figure 9.8 I tried different starting points by changing randomly the valves apertures and I got sometimes “optimized solution”, sometimes “infeasible solution”, sometimes “GAMS execution error”, and sometimes “Error in solution”. At some starting points where an optimal solution is found for network in Figure 9.7b the total costs were not the same, for example: 6.228 k€ , 6.237 k€, and 6.582 k€, and for the network in Figure 9.8a : 151.0 k€, 174.0 k€, 187.0 k€, 195.0 k€, 275.0 k€. For the network in Figure 9.7 I, however, tried to find an optimal solution without using the Pump Scheduler but instead I used the simulation and the trailanderror technique and I reached an optimal discrete solution where the total costs were about 5.516 k€, and this is
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obviously cheaper than the costs found by GAMS/CONOPT Solver (6.228 k€). Then, I used this solution as starting point to initialize the Solver, and the Solver was able to find an optimal solution and the total cost was about 5.767 k€; this solution is cheaper than the solutions obtained previously but even though it is still higher than the solution obtained by trialanderror technique. Moreover, for this starting point the Solver was able to find the 5.767 k€optimal solution for the network in Figure 9.7 with and even without adding the deadend pipe.
3. Multioptimal solutions
As has been shown here above, the water network has multioptimal solutions according to GAMS Solver, and an optimal solution depends on the system configuration and the starting point. This is a nonconvex optimization and such a problem may have multiple feasible regions and multiple locally optimal points within each region. Even that the starting point is very close to an optimal solution, the Solver might diverges from the optimal solution.
4. Optimization Timestep
The optimization timestep were 3hours for which all above optimal solutions were found. But, when the optimization timestep was reduced to 1hour it was hard to obtain an optimal solution for the network in Figure 9.7, while the Solver still was able to find optimal solution even when the timestep was reduced to 1hour for network in Figure 9.8.
5. Valve aperture
The discrete optimization searches an optimal discrete solution such that the number of pumps in operation is necessarily integer number, but on the other hand the valve aperture is allowed to be continuous and it lies between 0 and 1. However, this solution is feasible providing that the valves are fully automated, otherwise, this solution is infeasible and it will be hard to actuate the valves continuously.
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CHAPTER 10
Development Program and the Reversible PumpTurbine Plant of Trapan Dam
10.
10.1
Introduction
The development program proposed in the general study of hydraulic operation and management of “Toulon Est” network performed upon the decision of SCP to improve safety and reliability of the watersupplying service for the eastern zone of the region of Toulon city (Engineering DivisionSCP, 2002). The primary objective is to maintain the possibility of supplying the priority customers in the case of unavailability of water from Les Laures or in the case of pipe bursting on the main pipeline between Les Laures and Trapan dam and, consequently, the infrastructures of the “Canal de Provence” upstream of the divisor of Les Laures will be out of service for a long time. It is also a question of allowing the organization of maintenance operation programmed during the offpeak period of water consumption, and in particular the cleaning activities of the Montrieux gallery. It appeared necessary to extend safety in case of a serious incident intervening on one of the sections of the main pipeline between Les Laures and Gratteloup. This objective implies the construction of a pumping station at Trapan dam to mobilize the volume of this dam, which could be associated with new water tank to be built to the right side of Le Col Gratteloup (Figure 10.2). The second objective is to generate electrical energy by the possibility of equipping the station of Trapan with a reversible pumpturbine unit, and of associating it with the Gratteloup tank to maximize net head for the turbine. The unit associated with the Gratteloup tank also offers opportunity of realizing a third objective that is to increase the system supply flow to satisfy new eventual demands. This objective is added to the agenda with the increase in the subscription of the SIDECM intervened in 2002.
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10.2
Optimization of pumping stations at SCP
Before speaking about the optimization of the pumping station of Trapan, I will briefly introduce here the optimization procedure applied at the SCP’s control center. As most of water agencies and companies, the SCP has requirements for an effective operation policy for the pumping stations. The operation policy for a pumping station represents a set of temporal rules or guidelines (pump operating times) that indicate when a particular pump or group of pumps should be turned on and off over a specified period of time, typically 24 hours. The optimal pump policy is the schedule of pump operations that will yield the lowest operating cost while satisfying the desired operational performance of the water system: maintaining an adequate pressure range and meeting water turnover and storage requirements. In order to optimize the energy costs, contractual constraints must be considered when setting an operation policy for the pumping station. These are the contractual subscriptions and constrains of EDF that correspond to a maximum number of pumps turned on according to the EDF tariff period. EDF’s Scenario allows defining the tariff periods. For SCP, we always use the same scenario. This scenario is cyclic, it is the same whatever the day: Peak period is from 06:00 to 22:00, and Offpeak period is from 22:00 to 06:00. Also, the year is divided into two large periods; the winter period and the summer period. Winter period is from 1st November to 31st Mars, and Summer period is from 1st April to 31st October. In addition to this scenario, signals are sent from the field, they inform of the tariff period seen locally by the station to check permanently that the pump scheduling program is well coupled with the field and to identify inconsistencies. Generally speaking, at SCP there are two modes for the optimization of pumping station operation:
A. Optimization based on the water demand forecast
For this optimization mode, the operating flow of the considered station is calculated from water demand forecasts and, hence, the volumes of water which will be consumed from the downstream tank during a tariff period are calculated. Two tariff periods are distinguished:  Offpeak period: during this period the objective is to deliver the maximum volume at the end of the period.  Peak period: during this period the objective is to deliver the minimum volume at the end of the period while maintaining the volume of security in the tanks.
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In general manner, optimization always uses the minimum necessary number of pumps to be turned on. The optimization algorithm can be described as follows: 1. Creating the forecast scenario according to the statistics of the downstream tanks (continuous flows), 2. Recovering the available drawdown volume of the tanks (the difference between the high and the actual water level in the tank), 3. Distributing this drawdown volume between the upstream pumping stations, 4. Calculating, at the stations level, the optimization scenarios according to the available drawdown volume, to tariff period, and to the pumping station constraints (allowed nominal discharge). This algorithm is a backtracking testing the various possible adjustments until obtaining a solution fulfilling these criteria.
B. Optimization based on the tank’s water level
In this mode, the control of the pumping station flow can nevertheless be carried out in a local way without using forecasts. In this case, the pumping station is directly controlled depending on the water level in the downstream tank. Such a control can be carried out directly by using automated controllers. The principle is then the following. Thresholds of water levels will trigger the startup or the switchoff of the pumps. This system allows maintaining, roughly, the water level in the tank within a certain limit. A lower level or a high level is used according to whether we want to empty the tank or we want to store water in the tank. During the offirrigation period in winter, the operation is based on the high level such that we refill the tank during the offpeak tariff period of EDF (in the night), and based on low level to empty the tank during peak tariff period of EDF (in the day). During the peak water demand, it is necessary that the tank level is permanently maintained at the high level.
10.3 The Pump – Turbine plant of Trapan
Two installation options are proposed for the equipment of the plant at Trapan:  Installation of two pumps of the same characteristics in parallel.  Installation of three pumps in parallel with the possibility of delaying the installation of the third pump.
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The technical solution suggested hereafter results from the first research near manufacturers which made it possible to be ensured of the existence in the market of equipment adapted to the case studied here, but which also showed the choice is very restricted. Pre  consultation was launched near five suppliers of pumps concerning the supply of a machine that fulfills in the best possible conditions the desired objectives in terms of pumping and turbining. Only one manufacturer could present a material answering the arising problem. The pump  turbine unit proposed is a standard reversible pump "SULZER" and no particular adaptation is necessary for turbinemode. It concerns a model of pump that was developed for severe particular applications such as the pumping out of mine with heads of 400 m, and of boiler supply with temperatures of 100C°. For the moment, SCP does not purchase this unit. The optimal hydraulic operation points and hydraulic characteristics of this pump  turbine unit are summarized in Table 10.1 and Figure 10.1:
Table 10.1 : Optimal operating points
Mode Discharge (l/s) Net charge (m CE) Nominal speed (tr/mn) Efficiency (%) Pump Turbine
256 177 1,525 84
345 240 1,525 83
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Figure 10.1 : Hydraulic characteristics of the pump  turbine unit
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10.4
Gratteloup water tank
The functions of a new water tank to be built at Le Col Gratteloup are:
A. Increase the system flow
It is a question of building at Gratteloup a complementary volume to the volume already available in the existing tanks to improve the compensation of the daily demand of the whole networks upstream of the Gratteloup and to increase thus the system flow available downstream.
B. Energy production
The Gratteloup tank will participate in the energy production because it will allow increasing the net head available to the turbine by allowing the disconnection of all the networks located downstream of Trapan. The volume necessary corresponds to the daily demand asked at La Môle in winter that should be stored in the tank during the night; i.e. during the offpeak period of electricity tariff (8 hours from 22h to 6h) to maintain the continuity of the service for the networks during the turbinemode period (peak period of electricity tariff). If we consider only the flow subscribed for normal use by the SIDECM, that is 330 l/s, this volume is approximately 4,750 m3 if the water turbining is limited to 4 hours per day (peak period only), and of 19,000 m3 if the water turbining intervenes during the totality of the peak period (16 hours). At this stage, we consider that the volume reserved for the turbining will be at least 5,000 m3, to go up to approximately 20,000 m3 according to the selected option and if we wish to maximize the energy production.
10.5 Piping and fittings
The supply in pumping mode and the rejection in turbining (Figure 10.5) will be ensured by a single siphon (Figure 10.3). It is a pipeline of 900 mm in diameter and length of 200 m approximately. It will be laid on the bottom of the dam and its upper end at water level of 43 m. The end of the siphon will be equipped with a strainer. It is admitted that the station will not be able to operate in pump and turbine mode at the same time insofar as we do not consider the doubling of the siphon; as well as of the pump discharge pipe until the connecting point on the main supply pipe (about 170 m pipes and fitting). A deep well of 7.5 m is dug near the dam on the left bank at the high point of the siphon. Then, this well will
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accommodate a balloon connected to a vacuum pump laid out at the high point of the siphon for pump priming. The water level adjustment in Trapan can be done by a winch installed on the banks with a system with cable and pulley. An articulation is considered on the last section of the siphon equipped with a mobile joint making it possible the pipe intake to vary between the minimum and maximum allowable levels of Trapan (43 m and 56 m respectively). A system of vertical guide will have to be set up for this section of mobile pipe. The pipe connecting the station to the dam will end up in the suction well equipped with a general isolation valve. This collector well will include three taps for the pumpturbine groups (including one closed by a flange corresponding to the reservation for the third group) corresponding to the 600 mmsuction pipes of the groups with for each group an electrically motorized valve. This valve will allow the change of the unitoperating mode: pump or turbine. The valves will have hydraulic controls and security mechanism. The securization will be ensured by a counterweight that guarantees the full cut of the flow within approximately 20 seconds in the case of power outage of EDF, it is pumpoverspeeding protection. A water hammer protecting tank will be connected to the end of the suction well. The connection of the station and the main supply pipe is done by a pipe in 700 mm diameter and 120 m in length at point located at about fifty meter approximately before the arrival on the pressure dissipater tank (Figure 10.4). The installation of isolation valve will allow the isolation of the section Laures  Trapan to pump only towards Gratteloup tank.
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Figure 10.2 : Hydraulic profile of Toulon Est network
Les Laures Dissipator (295 m NGF) Les Laures Dissipator (295 m NGF)
Elevation ( m NGF) Elevation ( m NGF)
Cumulated distance (km) Cumulated distance (km)
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Figure 10.3 : 900mmpipeline profile connecting the station to Trapan
Figure 10.4 : 700mmpipeline profile connecting the station and the main supply pipe
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Figure 10.5 : General view of the project
Siphon intake
Trapan Dam
Pumping Direction
Pumping Station
Turbining Direction
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10.6
Electrical equipments
The electrical motorgenerator will be of the Asynchronous type. It will be in a standard way as well driving motor as generator with the possibility of reversing the sense of rotation. Each motor (two motors for first phase and future one for the future third group) will have a rating power of 1,000 kW. It is also considered two transformers of electrical power. Each one will function like a stepdown transformor in pumping mode, and each one will also be able to function like a stepup transformor in turbinemode, thus these two transformors will have to be reversible. Lastly, each unit of the reversible pumpturbine will be controlled by such a reversible variable speed transmission.
10.7 Operating points of pumpturbine plant
After this general presentation of the development program of “Toulon Est” and the pumpturbine plant of Trapan, we now will analyze and simulate the different possible scenarios of the station operation in order to determine the operating points (discharge and head) in turbine mode and in pump mode. However, some part of this analysis was carried out before by the Engineering DivisionSCP in the framework of the project brief and the development program of Toulon Est. We thus will redo this analysis but with FINESSE software.
A Turbine mode
This mode is about the electrical energy production by turbining water coming from Les Laures by gravity by exploiting the volume available in Trapan dam. The objective of the following analysis is to identify the operating point of the turbine. To find the operating point of the station in turbine mode we will trace initially the system curve. The system curve is the difference in altitude between the divisor at Les Laures and the Trapan dam “less” the headloss in the main supply pipe. It depends on the turbine flow and the derived water demands.
Hydraulic conditions and hypothesis
In this operating mode, only one turbine will be in function at constant speed, which is the nominal speed of the machine (1,525 rpm). We define two system curves; maximum head curve and minimum head curve.
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 Maximum head: corresponds to the difference between the high water level in Les Laures (295 m) and the low water level in Trapan (45 m), less the headloss calculated with the optimistic hypothesis of roughness (ε =0.5 mm). To maximize the head available at Trapan, it is provided that all the tanks between Les Laures and Trapan are insolated, that no water demand takes place on the main supply pipe, and that the delivery of La Môle (point M) does not withdraw. The net head available at Trapan is thus maximal.  Minimum head: corresponds to the difference between the low water level in Les Laures (293 m) and high water level in Trapan (57 m), less the headloss calculated with the pessimistic hypothesis of roughness (ε =3.0 mm), and with a flow delivered on the way taken equal to 50 l/s and transported up to approximately 5 km downstream from Golf Hôtel to represent the winter demand, which can not be provided from a tank during the turbining periods. The net head available to Trapan is thus minimal.
The two cases are modeled and simulated using FINESSE. Only the following components are kept and modeled in FINESSE to trace the curves:  Les Laures divisor modeled as fixed head reservoir.  Trapan dam modeled as fixed head reservoir.  Main supply pipe from Les Laures to Trapan. The two system curves issued from this simulation and the characteristic curve of the turbine provided by the manufacturer are overlapped and the intersections of both give the operating points. While referring to the graph below (Figure 10.6) we find that the nominal operating points of the turbine are:  Maximum head: The flow is 341 l/s (1,227 m3/h), the head available at Trapan is 235 m, and the efficiency is 83% (from Figure 10.1).  Minimum head: The flow is 322 l/s (1,166 m3/h), the head available at Trapan is 215 m, and the efficiency is 82% (from Figure 10.1).
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Figure 10.6 : Turbine operating points
300
TurbineV = 1525rpm Turbine V=1525rpm Head_Maxi maxi charge nette
250
charge nette Head_Mini mini
Head (m)
200
150
100
50 150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Flow (l/s)
This analysis shows that the operating points of the turbine are naturally almost at its best performance.
B Pump mode
The first function which the pumpturbine station will have to provide is that maintaining water supply of the customers located between the divisor of Les Laures and Trapan dam in the case of unavailability of water from Les Laures or in the case of pipe bursting on the main pipeline between Les Laures and Trapan. In view of the system current hydraulic state, there is no any possibility of emergency supply. From the point of view of system safety, we can consider that the station will also allow minimizing the incidents risks because it will make it possible or more convenient the maintenance interventions. Currently certain operations prove to be impossible because of the duration of the water cuts; it is particularly the case for Montrieux gallery cleaning, the guard valves on the gallery at Les Laures, and the sectional valves equipping the main supply pipe, and also the pipes flushing operations. The pumping station will function according to three distinct modes which we will be modeled separately hereafter. It will be equipped with three pumps in parallel, but in the first phase only two groups will be installed.
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1) Pumping to Les Laures
It is the case of pumping water to Les Laures in emergency cases; we pump water back from Trapan to Les Laures divisor.
Hydraulic conditions and hypothesis
In this operating mode we will simulate the operation of the station by changing at the same time the number of operating groups and the rotation speed of the pumps. We define two system curves; maximum head curve and minimum head curve.
 Piezometric conditions maximal: corresponds to the difference between high water level in Les Laures (295 m) and low water level in Trapan (45 m), plus the headloss calculated with the pessimistic hypothesis of roughness (ε =3.0 mm). All the tanks between Les Laures and Trapan are isolated.  Piezometric conditions minimal: corresponds to the difference between low water level in Les Laures (293 m) and high water level in Trapan (57 m), plus the headloss calculated with the optimistic hypothesis of roughness (ε =0.5 mm), and with all the tanks between Les Laures and Trapan are isolated.
Only the following components are kept and modeled in FINESSE to trace the curves:  Les Laures divisor modeled as fixed head reservoir.  Trapan dam modeled as fixed head reservoir.  Main supply pipe from Les Laures to Trapan.
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Table 10.2 : Pumping to Les Laures
Piezometric conditions maximal
Speed (rpm) 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 1 Pump Q ( l/s) # # # # # # 38 207 272 327 375 H (m) # # # # # # 250 259 266 273 281 θ (%) # # # # # # 23 78 83 83 82 Q ( l/s) # # # # # # 66 295 435 524 603 2 Pumps H (m) # # # # # # 251 269 291 310 329 θ (%) # # # # # # 20 65 77 81 83 Q ( l/s) # # # # # # 84 330 483 608 714 3 Pumps H (m) # # # # # # 252 274 301 331 361 θ (%) # # # # # # 17 53 66 73 77
Table 10.3 : Pumping to Les Laures
Piezometric conditions minimal
Speed (rpm) 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 1 Pump Q ( l/s) # # # # # # 136 243 303 356 403 H (m) # # # # # # 239 244 249 254 259 θ (%) # # # # # # 64 82 84 82 80 Q ( l/s) # # # # # # 210 410 516 607 690 2 Pumps H (m) # # # # # # 243 260 273 288 302 θ (%) # # # # # # 53 77 82 83 83 Q ( l/s) # # # # # # 250 475 639 754 858 3 Pumps H (m) # # # # # # 245 268 293 315 338 θ (%) # # # # # # 44 68 77 80 82
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This analysis shows that (Table 10.2 and Table 10.3):  The pump rotation speed must be approximately equal or higher than 1,600 rpm so that water reaches the divisor at Les Laures.  The maximum efficiency obtained at speeds between 1,800 rpm and 2,000 rpm.  According to characteristics of the main pipe LauresTrapan and also according to waterhammer protection analysis (Engineering DivisionSCP, 2002) the maximum operation pressure should not exceed the authorized maximum pressure 300 m (30 bars). We see that the maximum speed is approximately 1,800 rpm to fulfill this constraint.
2) Pumping to Gratteloup:
It is the case of pumping water to the new tank at Gratteloup in order to increase the flow available downstream of Gratteloup.
Hydraulic conditions and hypothesis
In this operating mode we carry out the simulation as in Les Laures case, and we define also two system curves; the maximum head curve and the minimum head curve.
 Piezometric conditions maximal: corresponds to the difference between high water level in Gratteloup (assumed level: 170 m) and low water level in Trapan (45 m), plus the headloss calculated with the pessimistic assumption of roughness (ε =3.0 mm).  Piezometric conditions minimal: corresponds to the difference between low water level in Gratteloup (160 m) and high water level in Trapan (57 m), plus the headloss calculated with the optimistic assumption of roughness (ε =0.5 mm).
Only the following components are kept and modeled in FINESSE to trace the curves:  Trapan dam modeled as fixed head reservoir.  Gratteloup tank modeled as fixed head reservoir.  Discharge pipe towards La Môle. This analysis shows that (Table 10.4 and Table 10.5):  The pump rotation speed must be approximately equal or higher than 1,100 rpm so that water reaches the Gratteloup tank.
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Table 10.4 : Pumping to Gratteloup
Piezometric conditions maximal
Speed (rpm) 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 1 Pump Q (l/s) # # 154 221 274 321 364 405 444 482 519 H (m) # # 127 129 131 134 136 139 142 145 148 θ (%) # # 79 84 81 77 72 68 64 60 57 Q (l/s) # # 272 397 494 579 658 732 803 872 939 2 Pumps H (m) # # 131 138 145 153 161 170 179 189 199 θ (%) # # 75 83 83 81 79 76 74 71 69 Q (l/s) # # 323 517 645 758 861 960 1,053 1,144 1,233 3 Pumps H (m) # # 134 147 160 173 187 202 218 235 252 θ (%) # # 66 80 83 84 83 82 81 80 79
Table 10.5 : Pumping to Gratteloup
Piezometric conditions minimal
Speed (rpm) 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 1 Pump Q ( l/s) # 150 214 267 312 355 395 434 471 509 545 H (m) # 104 106 107 108 110 111 113 115 117 119 θ (%) # 81 83 79 74 68 64 59 56 52 49 Q ( l/s) # 278 400 497 583 663 739 812 883 952 1,019 2 Pumps H (m) # 107 112 116 121 126 132 138 144 151 158 θ (%) # 79 84 82 78 74 71 67 64 62 60 Q ( l/s) # 370 542 675 794 903 1,007 1,107 1,203 1,298 1,390 3 Pumps H (m) # 110 119 127 137 146 157 169 180 192 205 θ (%) # 75 83 83 82 80 78 76 74 72 70
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3) Pumping to Golf Hôtel:
This case corresponds to the recycling of turbined water into Golf Hôtel tank.
Hydraulic conditions and hypothesis
In this operating mode we carry out the simulation as in the above cases, and we define also two system curves; the maximum head curve and the minimum head curve.
 Piezometric conditions maximal: corresponds to the difference between high water level in Golf Hôtel (171 m) and low water level in Trapan (45 m), plus the headloss calculated with the pessimistic assumption of roughness (ε =3.0 mm).  Piezometric conditions minimal: corresponds to the difference between low water level in Golf Hôtel (164 m) and high water level in Trapan (57 m), plus the headloss calculated with the optimistic assumption of roughness (ε =0.5 mm).
Only the following components are kept and modeled in FINESSE to trace the curves:  Trapan dam modeled as fixed head reservoir.  Golf Hôtel tank modeled as fixed head reservoir.  Discharge pipe towards Golf Hôtel. This analysis shows that (Table 10.6 and Table 10.7):  The pump rotation speed must be approximately equal or higher than 1,100 rpm so that water reaches the Golf Hôtel tank.
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Table 10.6 : Pumping to Golf Hôtel
Piezometric conditions maximal
Speed (rpm) 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 1 Pump Q ( l/s) # # 142 208 259 304 345 385 422 458 494 H (m) # # 130 135 139 145 150 156 162 168 175 θ (%) # # 77 83 82 79 76 72 69 66 64 Q ( l/s) # # 203 336 422 496 565 630 692 752 811 2 Pumps H (m) # # 134 149 162 175 190 205 222 239 257 θ (%) # # 64 80 83 84 83 82 81 80 79 Q ( l/s) # # 229 386 503 594 678 756 832 904 975 3 Pumps H (m) # # 137 156 177 196 218 240 264 289 315 θ (%) # # 52 70 77 80 82 83 83 83 84
Table 10.7 : Pumping to Golf Hôtel Pumping to Golf Hôtel
B  Piezometric conditions minimal
Speed (rpm) 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 1 Pump Q ( l/s) # 131 198 251 296 338 378 419 453 489 524 H (m) # 109 112 115 118 122 125 129 133 138 142 θ (%) # 77 84 81 77 73 69 64 61 58 56 Q ( l/s) # 200 341 433 513 587 657 723 788 851 912 2 Pumps H (m) # 112 122 131 141 151 162 173 185 198 212 θ (%) # 67 82 84 83 81 79 77 75 73 72 Q ( l/s) # 233 426 543 645 739 826 912 994 1,074 1,152 3 Pumps H (m) # 114 130 145 160 176 193 212 231 252 274 θ (%) # 56 77 81 83 84 83 83 83 82 81
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Figure 10.7 : Operation of the Trapan pumping station at different conditions
Les Laures_mini
Golf Hôtel_maxi Golf Hôtel_mini
300
1pump_1800
3pump_1800 Les Laures_maxi Gratteloup_maxi 2pumps_1800
250 Head (m)
200
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3pumps_1525 2pumps_1525 Gratteloup_mini
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1pump_3000
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800 Discharge (l/s)
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10.8
NPSH (Net Positive Suction Head)
Pump has a maximum aspiration capacity which is the value of the vacuum that it can produce. This characteristic varies according to the type and the design of the pump. Theoretically, the maximum height of aspiration, in a cavity where prevails the absolute vacuum, is equal to the atmospheric pressure, i.e. 10.33 m at sea level. It decreases gradually when altitude increases. This height is also limited by the physical properties of pumped liquid. NPSH is simply a measure permitting to quantify the total suction head at the pump inlet to avoid pump cavitation. Thus, the NPSH is defined as the absolute pressure at the pump inlet expressed in meters of liquid, plus the velocity head, minus the vapor pressure of the liquid at pumping temperature, and corrected to the elevation of the pump centerline. NPSH is always positive.
NPSH Required (NPSHr)
This is the minimum head required to stop the pump from caviating. NPSHr is a function of the pump design and is determined based on actual pump test by the vendor. Pump manufacturer's curves normally provide this information. The NPSHr is independent of the liquid density. The NPSHr varies with speed and capacity within any particular pump.
NPSH Available (NPSHa)
NPSHa represents the pressure of the liquid over the vapor pressure at the pump inlet and is determined entirely by the system preceding the pump, and it depends on:  Atmospheric pressure at the suction liquid level (Patm = 10.3 m).  Total headloss (friction plus fitting) in the pump suction pipe (Psuc).  Vapor pressure of the pumped liquid (Pvap= 0.1252 m at 10°C, Pvap= 0.2387 m at 20°C).  Static suction pressure i.e. the vertical distance between the impeller centerline and the suction liquid level (Pz).
NPSHa = Patm – Pvap – Psuc  Pz NPSH for “ToulonEst” pumping station
The curve of Figure 10.8 shows us the NPSH available versus the
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pump total flow. We saw that in the case of pumping towards Les Laures the maximum rotation speed is approximately 1,800 rpm and the flow through one pump is 300 l/s. At this operating point the NPSHr is approximately 17 m and the total flow should not thus exceed 900 l/s (from Figure 10.1). In all cases the flow is limited voluntarily to 300 l/s by group for reasons of NPSHa. The Net Positive Suction Head available to the pump inlet must be above the Net Positive Suction Head required to prevent damage caused by cavitation. Figure 10.8 : NPSH – Toulon Est pumping station
17.5 17.4 17.3
NPSHa (m) NPSH disponible (mCE)
17.2 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.7 16.6 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300
Flow (l/s)
Débit (lps)
10.9
Reversible pumpturbine plant: operation principles and scenarios
Here, we will present the operation principles and scenarios of the future station according to the general study and the development program of Toulon Est.
1) Emergency Operation
It is the main motive of the project, which corresponds to pumping back from Trapan dam up to Les Laures divisor. We speak of course about pumping mode only. Several cases can arise:
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A. Pipe bursting at Les Laures level
The pumping station must be able to pump back up to divisor. It is the operation obtained by one or two pumps at 1,800 rpm where the flow available to Les Laures is around 270 l/s to 300 l/s (1 pump) or 450 l/s to 510 l/s (2 pumps) with no demand taken out on the way. It had been considered the successive isolation of the tanks by closings the valves on the main pipe to limit the pumping head and to fill the tanks the ones after the others. It had been also suggested the possibility of limiting the pumping head to the highest tank, which is Fenouillet, located approximately 80 m below Les Laures. But to simplify the operation, the following rules are considered: • Starting the first pump with 1,800 rpm at first level, that is the high level of Les Laures. • Starting the second pump with 1,800 rpm at a second level, that is the low level of Les Laures. • Controlling the filling flows of each tank by means of the equipments that already exist and recently renovated. Choices will have to be made knowing that the maximum flow provided by the station in this configuration is of 500 l/s.
B. Pipe bursting at any level between Les Laures and Trapan dam
The tanks located upstream the burst can be supplied by gravity from Les Laures. Downstream, the station must ensure the supply of the tanks (and possible customers). In this case the pumping head is adjusted by the variable speed drive.
C. Pipe bursting at Les Laures and at some level between Les Laures and Trapan
This case would justify the implementation of a device controlling the tanks emptying flows, those remaining only the sources of water. It would be then possible to manage these tanks and allow the filling of the one by the other to prevent for example that a tank is emptied quickly whereas the others still have reserve.
2) Normal operation: pumpingturbining
The principles held in “Toulon Est” general study are to turbine in winter when the energy bought by EDF is most expensive and to recycle water by pumping in summer when the cost of purchase of electricity for
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SCP is the least expensive. This means that we fill the dam in winter and we empty it in summer. The main problem which is opposed to turbine permanently is that recycling would become impossible because the turbined volume would be greater than the pumped volume. Moreover it is held in the general study in order to optimize the energy generation the pumping head is limited up to Golf Hôtel tank. Recycling is done then by the various flows taken out the dam:  Flow taken out by the CEO.  Flow pumped to the Golf Hôtel tank.  Flow pumped to La Môle. The considered control is, of course, different according to whether we are in pump mode or in turbine mode.
Turbine mode
Standard operation will be to ensure a constant rotation speed equal the nominal speed of the machine, 1,525 rpm in turbine mode. The variable speed drive of the concerned machine will generate the nominal tensions and frequencies of the engine: 690 V, 50 Hz. The evolution of turbined flow will then follow roughly the headflow curve of the turbine. In fact in this case, the variable speed drive acts only as an intermediary between EDF and the engine. The variable speed drive provides thus engine protection, speed control which must be constant, and harmonics filtering. In turbine mode, we expect to isolate the tanks between Les Laures and Trapan. The net head available at Trapan is maximum and thus controlled. If for various reasons the head do not follow any more the expected system curves, for example when necessary to fill any of the tanks, there is a possibility of adapting the rotation speed of the turbine to remain permanently at maximum efficiency. In a very simple way, the variable speed drive then do not generates any more 50 Hz but a slightly lower frequency; produces an operation curve (head vs. flow) slightly higher and more adapted in term of output efficiency at low turbined flow. In this case the variable speed drive ensures a real speed variation.
Pumps mode
Pumping under normal operation corresponds mainly to recycling part of turbined water in winter and where necessary to the increase in the system flow of the supply pipe between Trapan and La Môle. Within the framework of pumping, it is a matter of making place for the next turbining season. Volume to be pumped is estimated at 0.7 Mm3. It is estimated in
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function of the rainfall and the evaporation losses each year in Trapan. Pumping is done mainly towards the Golf Hôtel tank and possibly towards the delivery point at La Môle when this asks for water. When the flow must be pumped toward the two branches (Golf Hôtel and La Môle), the basic solution is to maintain a constant water level in the Golf Hôtel tank which is slightly higher in terms of system curve than La Môle. But we are then confronted with the supply of small possible flows which would be asked by La Môle. When the high level of Golf Hôtel tank is reached, the station stops and the difference in elevation between the water level in Golf Hôtel and Gratteloup is too weak to guarantee the supply of La Môle. The station not being able to provide a flow lower than 150 l/s, this simple operation is not a solution. Another constraint is the pressure at Gratteloup: the latter is the limiting factor for supply pipe flow between Trapan and La Môle. In the case of the reinforcement of the flow of this pipe, the station will have to maintain a minimum pressure at Gratteloup (1.0 bar). The solution suggested is as follows. The principle is the organization each summer an "emptying campaign" for Trapan, corresponding to an approximate period of one month during which the valve on the main pipe at point G (Figure 10.2) is closed (the connecting point to Mont Redon tank). The upstream section to this valve is supplied by gravity and the downstream section by the pumping station for only Golf Hôtel tank. The interest is to limit the valve operation to one closing and one opening per season, and surely to at least limit the pumping head to the Golf Hôtel tank. The operation is as follow: • Closing the existing sectional valve (motorized and remotecontrolled) at point G to pump only in Golf Hôtel and to isolate the tanks upstream to this point. • Controlling an optimal pressure at the point H, departure towards Golf Hôtel, by the pumping station. • Controlling the valve at the departure towards Golf Hôtel (recently renovated) to flow close to 200 l/s.  The station should not stop at the high water level in Golf Hôtel to be able to provide the possible small demands (between 0 and 150 l/s) asked by La Môle. The 200 l/s flow is informative and corresponds to the summer continuous emptying flow of Golf Hôtel in 2002. It also corresponds to the minimum flow provided by a pump at maximum efficiency. In absolute terms, we fix the minimum flow that can be provided by the station to 150 l/s, knowing that efficiency
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loss can be observed.  Any higher flow asked by La Môle can be provided by the station and thus simplifies the operation insofar as the volume in Trapan is recycled more quickly.  In this configuration, the maximum flow that can be provided by the station is about 610 l/s, covering the contractual flow of La Môle (410 l/s) and supplying the Golf Hôtel (200 l/s). • Safety: in the case of station breakdown, the valve at point G can always be reopened. In addition we hold the possibility of pumping towards the other tanks in case of too low flow asked by the Golf Hôtel networks. • Booster mode: in the case of pressure drop beyond a certain limit at Gratteloup, this pressure sent back to the pumping station which will have to control a pressure setting at Gratteloup.
3) The Choice of Trapan useful volume
Useful volume of Trapan is that will be used within the framework of pumpingturbining between a minimum and maximum water level in Trapan. The conclusion of the general study showed that the larger this volume; the more we favor the energy balance between the income of the generator driven by the turbine and the expense of the motordriven pump. However, the larger this volume; the more the operating constraints increase, the more the quality of water in the dam is uncertain; from where the obligation to find a compromise between various parameters. The general study clarifies here below the procedure leading to this compromise:
1 The lowest water level in normal operation is 47 m, and the highest water level is 57 m. By taking one meter on these two levels for safety, the minimum and maximum dam water levels are 48 m and 56 m. The corresponding useful volume is 1.7 Mm3 (at Level of 56 m) – 0.4 Mm3 (at level of 48 m) = 1.3 Mm3. 2 The average net inflow (rainfall – evaporation – leakage) is estimated at about 0.3 Mm3 a year as described in the general study. We thus obtains the useful volume of 1.3 Mm3 – 0.3 Mm3 = 1.0 m3.
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3 The study on the water quality in the dam brings more elements on the validity of these hypotheses.
• Raising Trapan water level The operation of the unit as turbine will be possible in the beginning of November, which at that time corresponded to the seasonal peak period tariff of EDF, where the level of Trapan will have to be at 48 m. The objective is to deliver at the end of March the million m3 through the turbine. The turbining will take place 6 hours per day until end of Mars, from 9:00 AM to 12:00 PM and from 5:00 PM to 8:00 PM. Thus, we get entirely benefit from the sale of energy during peak period. The tanks which will be isolated during these time bounds will run out whereas until now the levels were maintained constant. It was verified for each tank that the volumes taken by the networks during these hours, in particular from 9:00 AM to 12:00 PM, could be provided. Refilling the tanks will be ensured by gravity from Les Laures during the offpeak period, where there is nonturbining, and controlled by the installations renovated recently at each departure point to the tank. • Lowering Trapan water level In summer at the beginning of April to the end of October, the water level must be lowered up to 48 m. The preceding studies show that the CEO Company downstream Trapan takes on average 0.6 Mm3 per year mainly during this period. The flow to be recycled by pumping is thus: 1.0 Mm3 (turbined) + 0.3 Mm3 (average net inflow) – 0.6 Mm3 (CEO water demand) = 0.7 Mm3. This volume will then be pumped towards La Môle or Golf Hôtel (the pumping conditions are similar), in certain manner since the summer continuous flow taken only by the networks downstream from Golf Hôtel is 200 l/s. Pumping will be carried out according to the principle of the "emptying campaign" exposed previously. • Winter water demand available for turbining According to the flow records at the cenral room (CGTC) provided by Les Laures flowmeter during December for the previous years illustrating the quantity of the total water demand in winter for Toulon Est, we observe a daily demand greater than 200 l/s, that is at least 2.6 Mm3/year. A fraction of this volume could be turbined in addition to the volume available in Trapan. It is then possible to optimize the energy production by turbining each day more time and by pumping the same day
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the additional volume. In fact, we turbine a significant volume of the demand in winter during peak period, and recycling this volume during offpeak period in the night.
4) Influence on Trapan water quality
In spite of the absence of the results of the water quality study, the various operating modes of the station are reexamined below by analyzing their impact on the water quality. • Turbine mode During the turbining, the water level in Trapan rises up from 48 m to 56 m, the only constraint is not to suspend the sediments which rest on the bottom. In this optics it is interesting to raise the end of the siphon as the water level in the dam rises up and to maintain a constant height between the end of the siphon and the water level, height which will have to be sufficient to prevent surface current form being created. • Pump mode During the water pumping in summer, the level drops down regularly to 48 m. The intake pipe must follow this drop. The intake level will be optimized by taking into account the main water quality constraints in the summer:  A strong temperature variation exists between the surface and the bottom. The water temperature at the CEO Company should not exceed 25°. This temperature is reached regularly in summer near to the surface.  Another strong gradient exists, but in the opposite direction, regarding the dissolved metals content and in particular the manganese which is a major constraint because it is difficult to be treated. The manganese content is null on the surface and increases with the depth. • Emergency mode Under emergency operating conditions, pumping is subjected to the same constraints as in pumping under normal conditions. Only the pumping head and the extent of the supplied networks increase. The pumping under normal condition is limited by the minimum admissible water level of 48 m in Trapan. In emergency mode, this minimum admissible water level could
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be violated implying high difficulties management.
Water quality improvement
In addition to the operation modes discussed here, we consider simply that it is possible to implement a pumping and turbining during the summer aiming only at improving water quality of Trapan subjected to the constraints mentioned previously. The principle is as follow:
By turbining: bringing fresh water and its dissolved oxygen and thus: Reducing the manganese content. Limiting water temperature variations in every day. By pumping: tacking out surface water from Trapan and thus:  Recycling the volume brought by turbining.  Improving water quality by mixing.
Finally the considered operation in this case does not bring any additional constraint in comparison to the normal pumpingturbining operation exposed previously. We consider a simplified pumpingturbining such that:  It is not necessary to close all the tanks between Les Laures and Trapan to optimize the turbining.  It is not necessary, and voluntarily we do not consider optimizing pumping towards Golf Hôtel tank. The considered operation is to maintain one or two pumps at 1,800 rpm to reach the maximum height and the maximum flow of 300 l/s or 600 l/s. No valve operation on the main pipe is thus necessary.
10.10 Reversible pumpturbine plant scheduling using FINESSE Pump Scheduler (CONOPT/GAMS)
One of the most difficult problems encountered in the optimization of the network of “Toulon Est” is the presence of the turbine. This new hydraulic element was not included in the earlier versions of FINESSE and it has been thus implemented into the later version of FINESSE modeling environment by DMU upon our request within the framework of the technical assistance contract and for the purpose of this research work. However, this did not completely solve the problem and this is because of that:
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B. The pump  turbine unit proposed is a standard reversible pump "SULZER" model and there will be three units in parallel, but in the first phase only two units will be installed, and they will share the same suction pipe. This means that the pump and turbine are physically the same element and we change the operating mode by reversing the rotation direction of the impeller, and this type of operations is programmatically complex to be modeled and to be optimized too. In FINESSE, the pumpturbine unit of “Toulon Est” is modeled by adding two elements connected in parallel, one for the pump and the other for the turbine, and in fact this does not represent the real system. From optimization point of view, using the GAMS/CONOPT Solver to solve this system; the solver will possibly find a solution such that the pump and the turbine are turned on in the same time where part or all of the pumped water reenters the turbine, and also where part or all of the turbined water will reenter the pump as shown in Figure 10.10. This because of the characteristic of EDF electricity tariff (Table 10.9) where the selling price from EDF is less than the buying price to EDF. C. We also want to manage the operation of the water tanks, pumpturbine plant, and the Trapan dam over the year not over 24 hours (or one week). D. In addition, as we introduced the future operation scenarios of this pumping station in section (10.8), the pumpmode under normal operation corresponds to pumping water mainly up to Golf Hôtel tank at Point H (Figure 10.9) and possibly towards the supply point at La Môle when this asks for water, and thus the system upstream Point H will be isolated and no water will be available from Les Laures to the system downstream Point H. Contrary to the turbinemode, Les Laures is the main source of water to the turbine and thus it can not be isolated from the system.
In fact, if we suppose that the real system consists of pump and turbine as two separated elements like the system in Figure 10.9 and the water from Les Laures is available, and then we look for the optimal solution of this system. In this case, there is no need to any optimizer to solve the problem because the optimal solution is simply that the pumping station is shut down and the turbine is turned on along the optimization period and the reservoirs filled up with water coming from Les Laures upstream the system, and thus we produce energy and earn money. However, the Toulon Est model shown in Figure 10.9 includes pump and turbine and the FINESSE Pump Scheduler has been used to schedule the pumpturbine unit and infeasible solution was found with pumping and
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turbining in the same time, or sometimes “GAMS execution error” message was obtained at the end of the optimization for different starting points, and as we have seen in the previous chapter (section 9.7.6); GAMS/CONOPT Solver is sensitive to the selected starting point. Figure 10.9 : FINESSE model for “Toulon Est”
(a)
(b)
Qtrapan Qturbine Qpump Qturbine
Qtrapan Qpump
Turbine
Pump
Turbine
Pump
Qturbine Qsystem
Qpump
Qturbine Qsystem
Qpump
Figure 10.10 : Pumping and turbining in the same time Nevertheless, we split the model in Figure 10.9 into two models; one for the pump and the other for the turbine, and we will try to estimate the power absorbed by the pump and the power recovered by the turbine under normal operation conditions. We need to know the system water demands and thus we use here the average demands (rounded up to the nearest ten) recorded during the summer of 2005 as shown in Table 10.5:
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Table 10.8 : 2005 Summer Demand for Toulon Est
Point Point B  CEO Point C  PIERRASCAS Point E Point F  FENOUILLET Point G  MONT REDON Point H  GOLF HOTEL Point K Point T  TRAPAN Point M  LA MÔLE 2005 Summer Demand (l/s) 100 200 150 100 100 250 60 80 270
And we added around thirty liters per second derived along the mainline for the nonrecorded demand. Also, we need to know the electricity tariff. The electricity tariff used for development program and the general study of hydraulic operation of “Toulon Est” will be used as in Table 10.6. In fact, this tariff is only an informative one because the electricity tariff for this project is not yet defined for the moment. Table 10.9 : EDF Electricity tariff (€/kWhr)
Period Selling price from EDF Buying price to EDF Peak (06:00  22:00) 0.13 0.19 Offpeak (22:00  06:00) 0.04 0.06
10.10.1 Pumpmode
As mentioned previously, the pumpmode under normal operation corresponds to pumping water mainly up to Golf Hôtel tank at Point H and possibly towards Gratteloup tank as show in Figure 10.11a where only the pump and the system downstream point H were kept. A good starting point has been selected to initiate the optimization process and, for this starting point, the number of pumps turned on is discrete. In the pump constrains the minimum number of pumps is set equal to 0 and the maximum number of pumps is set equal to 2. The Pump Scheduler was used to optimize the simple system in Figure 10.11a and, nevertheless, it was not able to find optimal solution. On the other hand, the system shown in Figure 10.11b is the same as in Figure 10.11a except that we added a deadend pipe to the node at point T as indicated on the schema, and the Pump Scheduler was used again to optimize this system and the same starting point was used. Even though the two systems are, hydraulically, the same the Scheduler was able to find an optimal solution in the second case. Fore this obtained optimal solution the
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number of pumps turned on is continuous solution since we do not have the SBB Solver (Figure 10.12). Figure 10.11 : Toulon Est in pumpmode under normal operation (a)
(b)
Deadend pipe
Figure 10.12 : Pump control – Pump optimal continuous solution
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The volume of water pumped from Trapan was around 36,000 m /day and the pump absorbed power was around 15.57 MWhr/day, and since the total volume of water that would be pumped from Trapan is about 0.7 Mm3/year, then the total power absorbed is:
3
700,000 m 3 /year × 15.57 MWhr/day ≈ 302.75 MWhr/year 36,000 m 3 /day
However, the operation costs in the case of continuous solution were around 1.77 k€ while they were around 1.78 k€ in the case of discrete solution. This problem of “deadend pipe” was previously introduced in Chapter 9.
10.10.2 Turbinemode
The standard operation will be to ensure a constant rotation speed equal the nominal speed of the machine, 1,525 rpm in turbine mode, and we expect to isolate the tanks between Les Laures and Trapan as explained in section 10.8. The Schema in Figure 10.13a represents the system in turbinemode, and the Gratteloup tank, which has a volume of 20,000 m3, can assure continuous water supply to La Môle of 270 l/s for 20 hours. We selected a good starting point to initialize the optimizer and the number of turbine turned on is always one. In the turbine constrains the minimum number of turbines is set equal to 1 and the maximum number of turbine also is set equal to 1. This means that the turbine is turned on all the time to maximize the power production. As in the pumpmode, the optimizer was not able to find an optimal solution for the system in Figure 10.13a, even though it was able to find an optimal solution for the same system when adding the deadend pipe as shown in Figure 10.13b. For this optimal solution, the optimal “costs” were around 2.48 k€, and the turbined water into Trapan dam was around 23,000 m3/day and the turbine recovered power was around 15.50 MWhr/day, and since the total volume of water that would be turbined into Trapan dam is about 1.0 Mm3/year, then the total power recovered is:
1,000,000 m 3 /year × 15.50 MWhr/day ≈ 673.90 MWhr/year 23,000 m 3 /day
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Figure 10.13 : Toulon Est in turbinemode under normal operation (a)
(b)
Deadend pipe
We will consider another scenario for the turbinemode such that the tanks between Les Laures and Trapan are not isolate as shown in Figure 10.14. As before, we selected a good starting point and, however, no optimal solution was found. Here, we did not add deadend pipe but rather the valve and the pipe, which are pointed out by the arrows as shown in Figure 10.14, are switched round with each other, and then an optimal solution was obtained. In this scenario, the optimal “costs” were around 2.35 k€, and the turbined water into Trapan dam was around 22,300 m3/day and the turbine recovered power was around 14.60 MWhr/day, and thus the total power recovered is:
1,000,000 m 3 /year × 14.60 MWhr/day ≈ 654.70 MWhr/year 22,300 m 3 /day
And this is clearly less than the power recovered when the tanks were isolated.
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Figure 10.14 : Toulon Est in turbinemode and water tanks between Les Laures and Trapan are not isolated
Optimal solution when these two elements are switched round!
Finally, these eventual scenarios that present the future operation of the pumping station show us that the power recovered by the turbine can be significantly higher than the power absorbed by the pumps, and thus this means that the benefits form selling the generated power will, at least, recover the pumping costs.
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CHAPTER 11
11.
Summary and Conclusions
11.1
Summary
In this research work we dealt with the operation management and optimization of water distribution networks. The water quality issue was out of the scope of this work. The operation management and optimization of water distribution networks led us to approach other relevant topics such: modeling and simulation methods and software (Chapters 3, 4, and 5), SCADA system (Chapter 6), network calibration (Chapter 7), water demand prediction (Chapter 8), and optimization principles and methods (Chapter 9). Indeed, each one of these topics has vital role in the efficient management and operation of the water distribution network. We need modeling and simulation tools to construct a model which can be considered as an abstraction and simplified representation of the hydraulic behavior of the real system and must be calibrated to ensure that the model simulated performance reasonably agrees with real system performance over a wide range of operating conditions. Also, we need to know the system water production or demand which is the driving force behind the hydraulic dynamics occurring in water distribution systems, and we need rules, guides, and tools to manage, improve, and optimize the system operation. SCADA system, if one exists, will help the manager to follow the state of the system in realtime and remotely initiate the operation of system elements such as pumps and valves from a single central location. This, in turn, will reduce operational staffing levels through automation or remote control, leading to efficient management of the system. At Canal de Provence Company in France, where this research work was carried out, a water supply network was selected as a casestudy where a new reversible pumpturbine plant will be constructed. This network is known as “Toulon Est” network and presented in Chapter 2, and the new reversible pumpturbine plant was introduced in Chapter 10. FINESSE software was used as our main modeling, simulation, prediction, and optimization tool.
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11.2
General conclusions
Before the commencement of the overall management and optimization process of an existing water distribution system, the system is in its initial state that is the “Asis” and “Nonoptimized” state, and by the end of this process the system will come to its final aimed state that is the “Tobe” and “Optimized” state. In order to bring the system to this final state, this process includes carrying out some tasks such as: making plan and strategy, consultation, data collection, model building, model calibration and validation, understanding customers water requirements and predicting system future water demand, installation of new SCADA system or improving an existing one, looking for feasible and economical solutions and executing them, decisionmaking, etc. Each one of these tasks is a challenge for the manager. At each stage, there are difficulties and obstacles and thus the manager has to make decisions to successfully accomplish the task. As we saw in this work, mathematicians, hydraulic engineers, and programmers have made an appreciative effort and have developed different methods, algorithms, softwares, and tools to accomplish the same task. This multitude means that the path to be followed to reach the final state is not unique and thus nobody guarantees that the final solution is unique since each methods, algorithms, and tools has its own assumptions, and complexity and accuracy levels. The key decision which must be made at the very start of the process is whether or not to use the hydraulic network modeling software as the right tool for providing answers to problems faced in managing water distribution systems. However, the manager must make a choice which leads him to the final state with feasible, satisfactory, and economical solutions. Concerning FINESSE software, this study was a useful opportunity, not only for SCP but also for DMU, to try and test this software and its modeling, simulation, prediction, and optimization tools at SCP. During this work some bugs in the software have been identified and the demand prediction module was improved, and new element was added, that is “turbine”. One of the obstacles of using FINESSE is lack of documentation and its “help file” is not complete and, hence, the user always needs to contact the software developer at DMU to request help on using the software tools. However, some problems have been encountered during the use of FINESSE for “Toulon Est” network, for example the turbine, where this element was not integrated into FINESSE and then it was added upon our request for
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the purpose of this study. Even though, this was not enough to fulfill our needs since the pump and the turbine are physically the same unit but in FINESSE they are modeled as two separated elements. Yet, the usefulness of this software at SCP is doubtful. Another problem is related to the “Pump Scheduler”. The problem is that at SCP we are currently using an old version of GAMS and CONOPT (1999) and it seems that this version is not efficient in some cases as such are those that were presented in Chapter 9 and Chapter 10. A more recent version of GAMS and CONOPT (2003) used at DMU also showed difficulties in finding a feasible and optimal solution sometimes proving that this non linear optimization problem is a difficult one and that the available algorithms and software may not fulfill our requirements yet. In this thesis, a calibration approach has been presented, and we described the use of EPANET software and Excel VBA macro in search of the best set of pipe roughness coefficients. This tool is an automatic trialanderror calibration approach and provides reasonable solutions as well. It performs very well with the small size network but in large size network the time required to find an optimal solution is often very long. However, this tool maybe needs to be improved to reduce the time required to find a solution, and it would be great if the nodes demand factors can be calibrated too. Also, this calibration work shows how difficult is the calibration process of the hydraulic model for water pipe network; even for a simple network like “Toulon Est” network. According to the comparison study made between FINESSE demand prediction and other prediction techniques, including those used at the SCP, the DMUWSS has improved the demand prediction and the new version gives better results than the old one and allows the user to choose either single, double, or triple exponential soothing, but it cannot automatically set the smoothing constant for the case at hand and thus the user must either accept the default value or he already must know the right smoothing constant for the case at hand. The knowledge and the experience of the persons who manage and operate the networks at the SCP’s control center had permitted them to develop their own forecasting tools giving good forecasts for demands for the systems which they operate when compared to others known techniques such as those presented in this work.
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Finally, since this research work comes within the framework of the FrancoJordanian technical cooperation the knowledge acquired in this domain will be transferred when I go back to Jordan to improve the situation of water distribution in the country that is one of the ten countries most threatened by the water shortage in the world and is facing a chronic imbalance in the water supplydemand equation. The operating cost of urban water in a country, having semiarid climate and water resources limited and difficult to exploit, is very high.
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« Et Nous avons fait de l’eau toute chose vivante » « And We made every living thing of water »