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PRABATH FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED
“Study of Fluctuations of Indian Stock Market”
SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULLFILMENT OF THE REQUIRMENT FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION OF THE RAJASTHAN TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY, KOTA.
SUPERVISED BY:Mr. S. P. Kabra
SUBMITTED BY :Rahul Jajoo
FACITLITY SUPERVISOR:Ms. Shilpi Kuntal
SUBMITTED TO :DEPARTMENT OF MANAGENENT STUDIES, SWAMI KESHVANAND INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, MANAGEMENT & GRAMOTHAN. JAIPUR
“The completion of any project depends upon the co-operation, coordination and combined efforts of several resources of knowledge, inspiration & energy.” Words fall short acknowledging immense support lent to me yet I will try to give full credit to the deserver's. My sincere thanks goes to Mr. Vikas Shrotriya (HOD DMS) giving me an opportunity to discover more knowledge. I am also thankful to Mr. S. P. Kabra (Director,Prabhat financial services) for his support, guidance and cooperation throughout to accomplish this project also expressing deep sense of gratitude to my Project guide, Ms. Shilpi Kuntal (Lecturer) for her valuable guidance, continuous encouragement and tremendous patience in discussing my problems, have been of the greatest help in bringing out my task in present shape. I am equally grateful to all my other teachers for their complete support. It would be unfair on my part if I do not thank my colleagues for their continuous help without which this work could never have been accomplished. They made me realize the importance of teamwork and also the leadership skills. I am grateful to all of them standing with me and supporting me in this project.
( Rahul Jajoo )
Companies tend to smooth dividends. this is the study about the last two year fluctuation in stock market which enables the investor in taking decision regarding investment. so they will be less volatile than stock prices. Contents 4 .In the present situation where stock market is going up and down. since it is difficult to assess certainty about future earnings and dividends. Volatile stock prices do not have a major impact on consumption and capital spending since there is a good chance that price movements in one direction may be reversed. The objective of selecting the topic is to know about the market trends of the stock market and the information related to the investment for the future investor. This study tells the factor which directly or indirectly affects the market and some basic information not only share market but also other market such as derivatives or commodity market for the new investors or the students who have some interest in stock market. it is necessary to invest consciously in the market whatever it is. This is not easy to prove. The study of fluctuations of stock market makes the investor aquatinted with the factor affecting the investment and Stock prices can be volatile and some analysts argue that this volatility is excessive.
Conclusion 6. Core Study 4. Bibliography Executive summary 5 .6 Limitation of Study 3. Abstract 2.1 Title of the Study 2.4 Type of Research 2. SWOT 5. Research Methodology 2.2 Duration of the Project 2.1.3 Objective of Study 2.5 Scope of Study 2.
The number of buyers and sellers involved will have a direct bearing on the price of the good or service to be sold. services and/ or information. and has become known as the law of supply and demand. shopping centers. Markets originally started as marketplaces usually in the center of villages and towns. 6 . These interactions define demand and supply characteristics and are therefore fundamental to economies. banks. Markets are dependent on two major participants – buyers and sellers. With the rising price of oil and food. Conversely. virtual marketplaces supported by IT networks such as the internet have become the largest and most liquid. such as specialist markets. or they can be planned and regulated . If there are more buyers than sellers.A market is an environment that allows buyers and sellers to trade or exchange goods. Governments or trade bodies often step in when such distortions undermine the smooth functioning of free markets. markets were physical meeting places where buyers and sellers gathered together to trade. Historically. services. Twenty four hours a day. A market can be defined as a place where any type of trade takes place. or even virtual markets such as eBay. Although physical markets are still vital. These kinds of street markets developed into a whole variety of consumer-oriented markets. although they often maintain a physical location for buyers. Markets can appear spontaneously when there are goods or services to be exchanged. in that the government does not intervene in how the market operates. investors and consumers are buying and selling every currency. for the sale or barter of farm produce. Most stock markets today are primarily electronic networks. Some markets are very competitive. sellers and market makers to interact directly.Free markets operate under ‘laissez-fare’ conditions. The currency markets are the largest continuously traded markets in the world. Stock markets have become highly complex markets that allow investors to buy shares in companies or in funds that aggregate companies or industries together. the availability of supply will push down prices. seven days a week. some markets have low or no competition. Buyers and sellers typically trade goods. particularly if the industry is protected by government legislation. the increased demand will push up prices. supermarkets. governments. with a number of vendors selling the same kinds of products or services. Where there are more sellers than buyers. leading to massive money flows constantly changing hands. These markets may be distorted if a seller gains monopoly power by managing the majority of supply (or indeed if a buyer develops monophony power by managing demand). clothing and tools. and information.
Stock markets are going to be volatile for next few days. gas. Everyone has seen it and everyone is wishing if he should have buy stocks before this rally. So what should a small investor do now? Should he buy stocks or should be selling stocks that he holds. and financial commodities such as bonds. coal and increasingly renewable energy sources such as biodiesel). went till 3oo points down. it paid off for those who bought. you MUST read this article! We have explained all the concepts and talked about all the "myths" that people have about the stock market! INTRODUCTION TO THE ORGANIZATION 7 . on Tuesday. Transactions tend to be wholesale with large quantities of goods being transacted at low prices. sugar. Today. corn. coffee. markets opened in red.commodity markets are once again under the spotlight. soft commodities and grains (wheat. cotton. meat. A number of services can also be associated with these goods. etc). rice. Albeit it could have been a gamble buying stocks before declaration of election results. oat. frozen orange juice. cocoa.This article is a COMPLETE guide to the basics of making money in the stock market! If you are considering investing in the stock market. Capital goods markets help businesses to buy durable goods to be used in industrial and manufacturing processes. then recovered and went up to 500 points up and finally settled for flat closing. Commodity markets include: energy (oil. i. Commodities underpin economic activity. Now that's history. soya beans.e.
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY TITLE OF THE STUDY:8 .
Research can use the scientific method. a harnessing of curiosity. 9 . ¬ To get the knowledge of other markets such as commodity market and derivatives. including many companies. TYPE OF RESEARCH Research Research is defined as human activity based on intellectual application in the investigation of matter. It makes practical applications possible. interpreting. ¬ To forecast or predict the future trend of stock market which helps in investment.“Study of fluctuations of Indian stock market” DURATION OF THE PROJECT:.45 days OBJECTIVE OF STUDY ¬ To know the basic terminology of stock market. ¬ To know the effect of these fluctuation on the Indian economy. but need not do so. Scientific research can be subdivided into different classifications according to their academic and application disciplines. Scientific research relies on the application of the scientific method. ¬ To know the ups and downs of stock market of last two years. and the development of methods and systems for the advancement of human knowledge on a wide variety of scientific matters of our world and the universe. ¬ To make the investor aware about the factors which may affect their investment. by charitable organizations and by private groups. This research provides scientific information and theories for the explanation of the nature and the properties of the world around us. The primary purpose for applied research is discovering. Scientific research is funded by public authorities.
analyze and interpret the present conditions. Quantitative descriptive research emphasizes on what is. but makes use of non-quantitative research methods in describing the conditions of the present. Qualitative descriptive research also emphasizes on what is. Descriptive research can be of two types: i. SCOPE OF STUDY ¬ Derivatives ¬ Sebi ¬ Stock exchange ¬ Commodity market ¬ Stock market 10 . record.In this project the research type used is descriptive because this research is the most commonly used and the basic reason for carrying out descriptive research is to identify the cause of something that is happening. whether a company’s market share differs between geographical regions or to discover how many competitors a company has in their marketplace. and makes use of quantitative methods to describe. DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH Descriptive research is used to obtain information concerning the current status of the phenomena to describe "what exists" with respect to variables or conditions in a situation. if the research is to return useful results. to developmental studies which seek to determine changes over time. the correlation study which investigates the relationship between variables. For instance. However. whoever is conducting the research must comply with strict research requirements in order to obtain the most accurate figures/results possible. The methods involved range from the survey which describes the status quo. this research could be used in order to find out what age group is buying a particular brand of cola.
So. which a very important factor of this study as conclusion has been derived from this secondary data only.e. they refer to the data which have already been collected and analysed by someone else. 11 . Accuracy: The facts and findings of the data cannot be accepted as accurate to some extent as firstly. So. some of them are as under: 1. 4. 2. this puts a question mark on the reliability of this data. because in short period you cannot cover each point accurately. 3. Secondly. Data Collection: The most important constraint in this study was data collection as Secondary data was selected for study. for doing descriptive research time needed to be more.¬ Securities ¬ Day trading ¬ Factor affecting Indian stock market ¬ Effect on Indian economy LIMITATIONS Limitations are the limiting lines that restrict the work in some way or other. In this research study also their were some limiting factors. Time Period: Time period was one of the main factor as only one month was allotted and the topic covered in research has a wide scope. Secondary data means data that are already available i. secondary data was collected. Reliability: The data collected in research work was secondary data. it was not possible to cover it in a short span of time.
Moreover.6 trillion US at the beginning of October 2008 . The stock market in the United States includes the trading of all securities listed on the NYSE. as well as on the many regional exchanges.e. the Deutsche Börse and the Paris Bourse. a derivative 'bet' on an event occurring is offset by a comparable derivative 'bet' on the event not occurring. European examples of stock exchanges include the London Stock Exchange.Core study Stock market A stock market is a public market for the trading of company stock and derivatives at an agreed price.) The stocks are listed and traded on stock exchanges which are entities a corporation or mutual organization specialized in the business of bringing buyers and sellers of the organizations to a listing of stocks and securities together. now part of Euronext. This allows businesses to be publicly traded. rather than an actual market price. The total world derivatives market has been estimated at about $791 trillion face or nominal value. cannot be directly compared to a stock or a fixed income security. compared to other less liquid investments such as real estate. the Amex. Function and purpose The stock market is one of the most important sources for companies to raise money.g. 11 times the size of the entire world economy. because it is stated in terms of notional values. e. The value of the derivatives market. which traditionally refers to an actual value. The liquidity that an exchange provides affords investors the ability to quickly and easily sell securities. the vast majority of derivatives 'cancel' each other out (i. 12 .). these are securities listed on a stock exchange as well as those only traded privately. OTCBB and Pink Sheets. The size of the world stock market was estimated at about $36. Many such relatively illiquid securities are valued as marked to model. This is an attractive feature of investing in stocks.. the NASDAQ. or raise additional capital for expansion by selling shares of ownership of the company in a public market.
deposit accounts and other very liquid assets with little risk made up almost 60 percent of households' financial wealth. Statistics show that in recent decades shares have made up an increasingly large proportion of households' financial assets in many countries.g. In the 1970s.History has shown that the price of shares and other assets is an important part of the dynamics of economic activity. has been an important component of this process. the stock market is often considered the primary indicator of a country's economic strength and development. hedge funds. One feature of this development is disintermediation. meaning that they collect and deliver the shares. Financial stability is the raison d'être of central banks. central banks tend to keep an eye on the control and behavior of the stock market and. The major part of this adjustment in financial portfolios has gone directly to shares but a good deal now takes the form of various kinds of institutional investment for groups of individuals. An economy where the stock market is on the rise is considered to be an up and coming economy. and can influence or be an indicator of social mood. tend to be associated with increased business investment and vice versa. Exchanges also act as the clearinghouse for each transaction. e. A portion of the funds involved in saving and financing flows directly to the financial markets instead of being routed via the traditional bank lending and deposit operations. Therefore. In fact. compared to less than 20 percent in the 2000s. permitting a 13 .. on the smooth operation of financial system functions. The trend towards forms of saving with a higher risk has been accentuated by new rules for most funds and insurance. in Sweden. Rising share prices. and guarantee payment to the seller of a security. insurance investment of premiums. for instance. in general. The smooth functioning of all these activities facilitates economic growth in that lower costs and enterprise risks promote the production of goods and services as well as employment. Share prices also affect the wealth of households and their consumption. Relation of the stock market to the modern financial system The financial system in most western countries has undergone a remarkable transformation. pension funds. mutual funds. In this way the financial system contributes to increased prosperity. The general public's heightened interest in investing in the stock market. either directly or through mutual funds. This eliminates the risk to an individual buyer or seller that the counterparty could default on the transaction. etc.
individual investors. Stock prices fluctuate widely.e. despite all this available information.. or have acquired other 'risky' investments (such as 'investment' property. real estate and collectables). The quote illustrates some of what has been happening in the stock market during the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. financial writers. Japan and other developed nations. Television commentators. Yet. immersed in chat rooms and message boards. Similar tendencies are to be found in other industrialized countries.higher proportion of shares to bonds. the noise level in the stock market rises. then plummet just as quickly. and $105. investors find it increasingly difficult to profit. This is certainly more important now that so many newcomers have entered the stock market. such as the European Union. in marked contrast to the stability of (government insured) bank deposits or bonds. the United States. i. analysts. With each passing year. and financial risk Riskier long-term saving requires that an individual possess the ability to manage the associated increased risks. are exchanging questionable and often misleading tips. Stock prices skyrocket with little reason. and people who have turned to investing for their children's education and their own retirement become frightened. and market strategists are all overtaking each other to get investors' attention. In all developed economic systems.000 from seven limited partners consisting of Buffett's family and friends. This is a quote from the preface to a published biography about the long-term value-oriented stock investor Warren Buffett. Over the years he has built himself a multi-billion-dollar fortune. The following deals with some of the risks of the financial sector in general and the stock market in particular. 14 . At the same time. Sometimes there appears to be no rhyme or reason to the market. individual investors. only folly. The stock market. Buffett began his career with $100. but also the economy on a large scale. This is something that could affect not only the individual investor or household. the trend has been the same: saving has moved away from traditional (government insured) bank deposits to more risky securities of one sort or another.
Securities and Exchange Board of India SEBI Bhavan. Maharashtra. SEBI is headquartered in the popular business district of Bandra-Kurla complex in Mumbai.in SEBI is the Regulator for the Securities Market in India.Chaired by C B Bhave. The Board comprises Name Mr CB Bhave Designation Chairman SEBI 15 As per CHAIRMAN (S. he had been the chairman of NSDL (National Securities Depository Limited) ushering in paperless securities. Organization Structure Chandrasekhar Bhaskar Bhave is the sixth chairman of the Securities Market Regulator. Eastern. . 2008 - Total Staff 525 Official Website Website www.gov. Prior to his stint at NSDL. India 1992 India Head Chairman Chairman Term C B Bhave February 16. He is a former Indian Administrative Service officer of the 1975 batch. Southern and Western regional offices in New Delhi. he had served SEBI as a Senior Executive Director. Mumbai Headquarters of SEBI Organization Details Headquarters Established Jurisdiction Mumbai. and has Northern. Originally set up by the Government of India in 1988.4(1)(a) of the SEBI Act. it acquired statutory form in 1992 with SEBI Act 1992 being passed by the Indian Parliament.sebi. Chennai and Ahmedabad. Prior to taking charge as Chairman SEBI. Kolkata.
4(1)(d) of the SEBI Act.4(1)(b) of the SEBI Act. Ministry of Corporate Affairs Member (S. quasi-judicial and quasiexecutive. it conducts investigation and enforcement action in its executive function and it passes rulings and orders in its judicial capacity. A second appeal lies directly to the Supreme Court. There is a Securities Appellate Tribunal which is a three member tribunal and is presently headed by a former Chief Justice of a High court .4(1)(d) of the SEBI Act. which constitute the market: the issuers of securities the investors the market intermediaries. Though this makes it very powerful. there is an appeals process to create accountability. 1992) Member (S. 16 .Mr. Justice NK Sodhi. It drafts regulations in its legislative capacity.4(1)(b) of the SEBI Act. Infosys Functions and Responsibilities SEBI has to be responsive to the needs of three groups. 1992) Mr Anurag Goel Dr G Mohan Gopal Mr MS Sahoo Director. 1992) Member (S.4(1)(d) of the SEBI Act. SEBI has three functions rolled into one body quasi-legislative. Bhopal Whole Time Member.1992) Mr KP Krishnan Joint Secretary. SEBI Mr Mohandas Pai Director. Member (S. National Judicial Academy.4(1)(d) of the SEBI Act. SEBI 1992) Member (S. Ministry of Finance Secretary. 1992) Member (S. 1992) Dr KM Abraham Whole Time Member.
this may include the following: 1. Supply and demand in stock markets is driven by various factors which. SEBI has been active in setting up the regulations as required under law. The initial offering of stocks and bonds to investors is by definition done in the primary market and subsequent trading is done in the secondary market. Raising capital for businesses 17 . To be able to trade a security on a certain stock exchange. unit trusts. The securities traded on a stock exchange include: shares issued by companies. Stock exchanges also provide facilities for the issue and redemption of securities as well as other financial instruments and capital events including the payment of income and dividends. as modern markets are electronic networks. Stock exchange A stock exchange. Trade on an exchange is by members only. affect the price of stocks (see stock valuation). There is usually no compulsion to issue stock via the stock exchange itself.SEBI has enjoyed success as a regulator by pushing systemic reforms aggressively and successively (e. Increasingly. Usually there is a central location at least for recordkeeping. it has to be listed there. nor must stock be subsequently traded on the exchange. as in all free markets. Such trading is said to be off exchange or over-the-counter. This is the usual way that derivatives and bonds are traded. stock exchanges are part of a global market for securities. (formerly a securities exchange) is a corporation or mutual organization which provides "trading" facilities for stock brokers and traders. but trade is less and less linked to such a physical place. derivatives. the quick movement towards making the markets electronic and paperless rolling settlement on T+2 basis). which gives them advantages of speed and cost of transactions. A stock exchange is often the most important component of a stock market. The role of stock exchanges Stock exchanges have multiple roles in the economy. pooled investment products and bonds. to trade stocks and other securities.g.
or kept in idle deposits with banks. which could have been consumed. commerce and industry. hedge against volatility. 2. 4. will share in the wealth of profitable businesses.Facilitating company growth Companies view acquisitions as an opportunity to expand product lines.Corporate governance By having a wide and varied scope of owners. through dividends and stock price increases that may result in capital gains. However. are mobilized and redirected to promote business activity with benefits for several economic sectors such as agriculture. both casual and professional stock investors. 5. 3. it leads to a more rational allocation of resources because funds. companies generally tend to improve on their management standards and efficiency in order to satisfy the demands of these shareholders and the more stringent rules for public corporations imposed by public stock exchanges and the government. often owned by the company founders and/or their families and 18 . it is alleged that public companies (companies that are owned by shareholders who are members of the general public and trade shares on public exchanges) tend to have better management records than privately-held companies (those companies where shares are not publicly traded.Mobilizing savings for investment When people draw their savings and invest in shares. increase distribution channels.Redistribution of wealth Stock exchanges do not exist to redistribute wealth. or acquire other necessary business assets. resulting in stronger economic growth and higher productivity levels and firms. increase its market share. A takeover bid or a merger agreement through the stock market is one of the simplest and most common ways for a company to grow by acquisition or fusion. Consequently.The Stock Exchange provide companies with the facility to raise capital for expansion through selling shares to the investing public.
Therefore the movement of share prices and in general of the stock indexes can be an indicator of the general trend in the economy.heirs. or financial crisis could eventually lead to a stock market crash.Creating investment opportunities for small investors As opposed to other businesses that require huge capital outlay. The dot-com bubble in the early 2000s.Tel (2001).Barometer of the economy At the stock exchange. are classical examples of corporate mismanagement. Sunbeam (2001). One. Parmalat (2003). largely. investing in shares is open to both the large and small stock investors because a person buys the number of shares they can afford. on market forces. thus loaning money to the government.Government capital-raising for development projects Governments at various levels may decide to borrow money in order to finance infrastructure projects such as sewage and water treatment works or housing estates by selling another category of securities known as bonds. Enron Corporation (2001). or otherwise by a small group of investors). These bonds can be raised through the Stock Exchange whereby members of the public buy them. and Satyam Computer Services (2009) were among the most widely scrutinized by the media. Therefore the Stock Exchange provides the opportunity for small investors to own shares of the same companies as large investors.com (2000). An economic recession. American International Group (2008). and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007-08. Share prices tend to rise or remain stable when companies and the economy in general show signs of stability and growth. 19 . share prices rise and fall depending. Lehman Brothers (2008). MCI WorldCom (2002). some well-documented cases are known where it is alleged that there has been considerable slippage in corporate governance on the part of some public companies. However. The issuance of such bonds can obviate the need to directly tax the citizens in order to finance development. although by securing such bonds with the full faith and credit of the government instead of with collateral. the result is that the government must tax the citizens or otherwise raise additional funds to make any regular coupon payments and refund the principal when the bonds mature. 9. depression. Companies like Pets. 8. Adelphia (2002). Webvan (2001). 7.
including 12 sectoral indices. now spanning three centuries in its 133 years of existence. 1956. The market capitalization as on December 31. There is perhaps no major corporate in India which has not sourced BSE's services in raising resources from the capital market. BSE has two of world's best exchanges. An investor can choose from more than 4. BSE offers 21 indices. BSE is the first stock exchange in the country which obtained permanent recognition (in 1956) from the Government of India under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act 1956. Deutsche Börse and Singapore Exchange. which for easy reference. pursuant to the BSE (Corporatisation and Demutualisation) Scheme. Apart from the SENSEX.79 trillion .700 listed companies. 2007 stood at USD 1.Bombay Stock Exchange Introduction Bombay Stock Exchange is the oldest stock exchange in Asia with a rich heritage. It is an index of 30 stocks representing 12 major sectors. Over the past 133 years. S. With demutualisation. B. BSE is the world's number 1 exchange in terms of the number of listed companies and the world's 5th in transaction numbers. SENSEX. BSE has facilitated the growth of the Indian corporate sector by providing it with an efficient access to resources. It migrated from the open outcry system to an online screen-based order driven trading system in 1995. What is now popularly known as BSE was established as "The Native Share & Stock Brokers' Association" in 1875. The BSE Index. Today. 2005 notified by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). are classified into A. as its strategic partners. T and Z groups. BSE is now a corporatised and demutualised entity incorporated under the provisions of the Companies Act. is India's first stock market index that enjoys an iconic stature . The SENSEX is constructed on a 'free-float' methodology. and is sensitive to market sentiments and market realities. This agreement has made 20 . BSE's pivotal and pre-eminent role in the development of the Indian capital market is widely recognized. Earlier an Association Of Persons (AOP). and is tracked worldwide. BSE has entered into an index cooperation agreement with Deutsche Börse.
BSE is the first exchange in India and the second in the world to obtain an ISO 9001:2000 certification. it has become the first national level stock exchange to launch its website in Gujarati and Hindi to reach out to a larger number of investors. In 2006. It brings to the investors a trading tool that can be easily used for the purposes of investment. the global leader in ETFs through its iSharesÂ® brand. trading. BSE continues to innovate. BSE launched the Directors Database and ICERS (Indian Corporate Electronic Reporting System) to facilitate information flow and increase transparency in the Indian capital market. BSE provides an efficient and transparent market for trading in equity. It has successfully launched a reporting platform for corporate bonds in India christened the ICDM or Indian Corporate Debt Market and a unique ticker-cum-screen aptly named 'BSE Broadcast' which enables information dissemination to the common man on the street. SPIcE allows small investors to take a long-term view of the market. The systems and processes are designed to safeguard market integrity and enhance transparency in operations. It has a nation-wide reach with a presence in more than 359 cities and towns of India. called "SPIcE" is listed on BSE. has created the 'iSharesÂ® BSE SENSEX India Tracker' which tracks the SENSEX. In recent times. hedging and arbitrage.SENSEX and other BSE indices available to investors in Europe and America. Moreover. BSE has always been at par with the international standards. debt instruments and derivatives. BSE also has a wide range of services to empower investors and facilitate smooth transactions: 21 . The ETF enables investors in Hong Kong to take an exposure to the Indian equity market. the ICERS facilitates the corporates in sharing with BSE their corporate announcements. While the Directors Database provides a single-point access to information on the boards of directors of listed companies. Barclays Global Investors (BGI). It is also the first exchange in the country and second in the world to receive Information Security Management System Standard BS 7799-2-2002 certification for its BSE On-line Trading System (BOLT). The first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) on SENSEX.
The Annual Reports and Accounts of BSE for the year ended March 31. BSEWEBX. BSE introduced the world's first centralized exchangebased Internet trading system.000 Trader Workstations located across over 359 cities in India. market reconstruction and generation of cross market alerts. BOLT is currently operating in 25. 22 . BSE was the first exchange in the country to provide an amount of Rs. volume positions and members' positions and real-time measurement of default risk.Investor Services: The Department of Investor Services redresses grievances of investors. The BSE On-line Trading (BOLT): BSE On-line Trading (BOLT) facilitates on-line screen based trading in securities. 2006 and March 31 2007 have been awarded the ICAI awards for excellence in financial reporting.000 people have attended the BTI programmes Awards The World Council of Corporate Governance has awarded the Golden Peacock Global CSR Award for BSE's initiatives in Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). BSE Training Institute: BTI imparts capital market training and certification.'Safe Investing in the Stock Market' under which 264 programmes were held in more than 200 cities. More than 20. This initiative enables investors anywhere in the world to trade on the BSE platform.1 million towards the investor protection fund.com. BSEWEBX. Surveillance: BSE's On-Line Surveillance System (BOSS) monitors on a real-time basis the price movements. it is an amount higher than that of any exchange in the country.com: In February 2001. It offers over 40 courses on various aspects of the capital market and financial sector. BSE launched a nationwide investor awareness programme. in collaboration with reputed management institutes and universities.
Calcutta. Ahmedabad and Madras. The journey in the 20th century has not been an easy one. The launch of SENSEX in 1986 was later followed up in January 1989 by introduction of BSE National Index (Base: 1983-84 = 100). A lot has changed since 1875 when 318 persons by paying a then princely amount of Re.Pacific HRM awards for its efforts in employer branding through talent management at work. BSE. 1994 two new index series viz. segment-specific and sector-specific indices. BSE has come a long way in attuning itself to the varied needs of investors and market participants. 1.Mumbai. Since then. 1996 and since then. It comprised 100 stocks listed at five major stock exchanges in India . became members of what today is called Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE). Over the decades. BSE has continuously 23 . Delhi. the stock market in the country has passed through good and bad periods.. With a view to provide a better representation of the increasing number of listed companies. Till the decade of eighties. BSE will continue to remain an icon in the Indian capital market. it is being calculated taking into consideration only the prices of stocks listed at BSE. in 1986. health management at work and excellence in HR through technology Drawing from its rich past and its equally robust performance in the recent times. History For the premier stock exchange that pioneered the securities transaction business in India. came out with a Stock Index-SENSEX. In order to fulfill the need for still broader. BSE launched the dollar-linked version of BSE-100 index on May 22. BSE launched on 27th May. the 'BSE-200' and the 'DOLLEX-200'. 2006.The Human Resource Management at BSE has won the Asia . there was no measure or scale that could precisely measure the various ups and downs in the Indian stock market. larger market capitalization and the new industry sectors.that subsequently became the barometer of the Indian stock market. The BSE National Index was renamed BSE-100 Index from October 14. over a century of experience is a proud achievement.
been increasing the range of its indices. BSE-500 Index and 5 sectoral indices were launched in 1999. In 2001, BSE launched BSE-PSU Index, DOLLEX-30 and the country's first free-float based index - the BSE TECk Index. Over the years, BSE shifted all its indices to the free-float methodology
National Stock Exchange of India
National Stock Exchange Limited
Stock Exchange Mumbai, India
19°3′37″N 72°51′35″E/19.06028°N 72.85972°E/19.06028; 72.85972
Owner Key people Currency No. of listings MarketCap
National Stock Exchange of India Limited Mr. Ravi Narain (Managing Director & CEO) IN R 1587 US$ 1.46 trillion (2006) S&P CNX Nifty
CNX Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500
NSE is mutually-owned by a set of leading financial institutions, banks, insurance companies and The National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE), is a Mumbai-based stock exchange. It is the largest stock exchange in India in terms of daily turnover and number of trades, for both equities and derivative trading.. Though a number of other exchanges exist, NSE and the Bombay Stock Exchange are the two most significant stock exchanges in India, and between them are responsible for the vast majority of share transactions. The NSE's key index is the S&P CNX Nifty, known as the Nifty, an index of fifty major stocks weighted by market capitalisation. other financial intermediaries in India but its ownership and management operate as separate entities. There are at least 2 foreign investors NYSE Euronext and Goldman Sachs who have taken a stake in the NSE. As of 2006[update], the NSE VSAT terminals, 2799 in total, cover more than 1500 cities across India . In October 2007, the equity market capitalization of the companies listed on the NSE was US$ 1.46 trillion, making it the second largest stock exchange in South Asia. NSE is the third largest Stock Exchange in the world in terms of the number of trades in equities. It is the second fastest growing stock exchange in the world with a recorded growth of 16.6%. Origins NSE building at BKC The National Stock Exchange of India was promoted by leading Financial institutions at the behest of the Government of India, and was incorporated in November 1992 as a tax-paying company. In April 1993, it was recognized as a stock exchange under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956. NSE commenced operations in the Wholesale Debt Market (WDM) segment in June 1994. The Capital Market (Equities) segment of the NSE commenced operations in November 1994, while operations in the Derivatives segment commenced in June 2000. Innovations
NSE has remained in the forefront of modernization of India's capital and financial markets, and its pioneering efforts include: Being the first national, anonymous, electronic limit order book (LOB) exchange to trade securities in India. Since the success of the NSE, existent market and new market structures have followed the "NSE" model. Setting up the first clearing corporation "National Securities Clearing Corporation Ltd." in India. NSCCL was a landmark in providing innovation on all spot equity market (and later, derivatives market)trades in India. Co-promoting and setting up of National Securities Depository Limited, first depository in India. Setting up of S&P CNX Nifty. NSE pioneered commencement of Internet Trading in February 2000, which led to the wide popularization of the NSE in the broker community. Being the first exchange that, in 1996, proposed exchange traded derivatives, particularly on an equity index, in India. After four years of policy and regulatory debate and formulation, the NSE was permitted to start trading equity derivatives Being the first and the only exchange to trade GOLD ETFs (exchange traded funds) in India. NSE has also launched the NSE-CNBC-TV18 media centre in association with CNBCTV18, it is the one of the most important stock exchange in the world.
S&P CNX Nifty
S&P CNX Nifty is a well diversified 50 stock index accounting for 21 sectors of the economy. It is used for a variety of purposes such as benchmarking fund portfolios, index based derivatives and index funds.
S&P CNX Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products Ltd. (IISL), which
The The Sensex Nifty is is an an indicator indicator of of all all the the major major companies companies of of the the BSE. IISL has a Marketing and licensing agreement with Standard & Poor's (S&P). who are world leaders in index services. the Nifty represents the top stocks of the NSE. this tells you that the stock price of most of the major stocks on the BSE have gone down.is a joint venture between NSE and CRISIL. Impact cost of the S&P CNX Nifty for a portfolio size of Rs. is the Bombay Stock Exchange and the NSE is the National Stock Exchange. Just like the Sensex represents the top stocks of the BSE.34% of the total market capitalization as on Mar 31. . Just in case you are confused.16% S&P CNX Nifty is professionally maintained and is ideal for derivatives trading Sensex & the Nifty The Sensex is an "index". but they are not as popular as the BSE and the NSE. If the Sensex goes down. These are the major stock exchanges in the country. There are other stock exchanges like the Calcutta Stock Exchange etc. the BSE.Most of the stock trading in the country is done 27 though the BSE & the NSE. 2009. The total traded value for the last six months of all Nifty stocks is approximately 65.2 crore is 0. NSE. It gives you a general idea about whether most of the stocks have gone up or most of the stocks have gone down. If the Sensex goes up.68% of the traded value of all stocks on the NSE Nifty stocks represent about 65. it means that the prices of the stocks of most of the major companies on the BSE have gone up. The BSE is situated at Bombay and the NSE is situated at Delhi. What is an index? An index is basically an indicator. IISL is India's first specialised company focused upon the index as a core product.
The reason behind this is that analysts base their future value of a company on their earnings projection. you have to figure out what news is positive for a company and what news is negative and how any news about a company will be interpreted by the people. Public companies are required to report their earnings four times a year (once each quarter). which are referred to as earnings seasons. By this we mean that stock prices change because of “supply and demand”. if more people wanted to sell a stock than buy it. there would be greater supply than demand. What is difficult to understand is what makes people like a particular stock and dislike another stock. If a company's results disappoint and are worse than expected. The most important factor that affects the value of a company is its earnings. If more people want to buy a stock (demand) than sell it (supply). you will know what people are buying and what people are selling. (Basics of economics!) Understanding supply and demand is easy. If a company never makes money. If you know this you will know what prices go up and what prices go down! To figure out the likes and dislikes of people. There is an index that gives you an idea about whether the mid-cap stocks go up and down. If a company's results are better than expected. it isn't going to stay in business. . then the price moves up! Conversely. Dalal Street watches with great attention at these times. and in the long run no company can survive without them. If you understand this. and the price would fall. This is called the “BSE Mid-cap Index”. It makes sense when you think about it. The reasons for stock prices going "up" and "down" Stock prices change every day because of market forces.Besides Sensex and the Nifty there are many other indexes. 28 then the price will fall. Earnings are the profit a company makes. the price jumps up.
It is important that you understand the distinction between a company financing through 29 . issuing stock is called “equity financing”. while others think that by drawing charts and looking at past price movements. it's not just earnings that can change the feeling people have about a stock. companies can either borrow it from somebody or raise it by selling part of the company. The only thing we do know is that stocks are volatile and can change in price very very rapidly. Issuing stock is advantageous for the company because it does not require the company to pay back the money or make interest payments along the way.Of course. these high stock prices did not hold. which is issued by the private company itself. As we all know. The reasons for which companies issue stocks Why would the founders share the profits with thousands of people when they could keep profits to themselves? The reason is that at some point every company needs to "raise money". what are "all the factors" that affect the stocks price? The best answer is that nobody really knows for sure. for example. Some believe that it isn't possible to predict how stock prices will change. It would be a rather simple world if this were the case! During the “dotcom bubble”. On the other hand. this fact demonstrates that there are factors other than current earnings that influence stocks. which is known as issuing stock. is called the initial public offering (IPO). The first sale of a stock. A company can borrow by taking a loan from a bank or by issuing bonds. So. you can determine when to buy and sell. To do this. All that the shareholders get in return for their money is the hope that the shares will someday be worth more than what they paid for them. Both methods come under "debt financing". Still. the stock price of dozens of internet companies rose without ever making even the smallest profit. and most internet companies saw their values shrink to a fraction of their highs.
Technical Analysis Fundamental analysis is the analysis of a stock on the basis of core financial and economic analysis to predict the movement of stocks price. for forecasting of future stock price or financial price movements. By becoming an owner.just as a small business owner isn't guaranteed a return. fundamental analysis looks at the actual company and tries to figure out what the company price is going to be like in the future. When you buy a debt investment such as a bond. peoples buying behavior etc. you are guaranteed the return of your money (the principal) along with promised interest payments. but they also stand to lose their entire investment if the company isn't successful. There are two major types of analysis: 1. Before picking the right stock you need to do some analysis. It depends more on experience and involves some statistics and mathematics. Fundamental Analysis 2. In this article we will go into the basics of “fundamental analysis”. neither is a shareholder. you assume the risk of the company not being successful .debt and financing through equity. It is much more of an "art" than a science. Stock Picking –Having understood all the basics of the stock market and the risk involved. technical analysis is the study of prices and volume. Calculation of BSE SENSEX… 30 . On the other hand. to try and figure out what the stock price is going to be like in the future. Technical analysis is a little more complicated. now we will go into stock picking and how to pick the right stock. Shareholders earn a lot if a company is successful. On the other hand technical analysis look at the stocks chart. This isn't the case with an equity investment. so explaining technical analysis is out of the scope of this article. Simply put.
They do this because they have their money invested in those stocks. : Don't even consider "tips" that tell you about "hot stocks". Consider the source: There are many people in the market who put in all their time and effort in promoting certain stocks. If they can get enough people to buy the stock and they can get the stock price to rise. they will sell the stock for a huge price.This article explains how the value of the “BSE Sensex” or “sensitive index” is calculated. You must always use your own brain. To show this accurately. is almost always a complete disaster. or generally going down. you can find this out by reading our “How to make money in the stock market?” article. The stock market is a field dominated by savvy investors who know the ins-and-outs of the market. The Sensex is supposed to be an indicator of the stocks in the BSE. For people who are not “on the inside”. Always use your own brain: It's extremely important. Relying on the advice of others. This is done to make the Sensex an accurate index and so that it represents the BSE stocks properly. the Sensex is calculated taking into consideration stock prices of 30 different BSE listed companies. Make sure you dig in and really examine the "facts about the companies" 31 . It is calculated using the “free-float market capitalization” method. the stock price will crash and they will walk off to promote another stock. The Sensex has a very important function. no matter how well intentioned it may be. 3 important things you must know and follow as an new investor! You need to KNOW some “unforgettable basics” before you enter the world of investing in stocks. the stock market can be a VERY dangerous place. It is supposed to show whether the stocks are generally going up. If you are not sure what we mean by the Sensex or what the Sensex is all about. Please note: The method used for calculating the Sensex and the 30 companies that are taken into consideration are changed from time to time. This is a world wide accepted method as one of the best methods for calculating a stock market index.
interest level. the underlying asset. Essentially. In fact. They are for your own safety. By following these rules. rather than the asset itself. it’s this flexibility that appeals to investors 32 . Ignore press releases which have very little substance. this never works. You cannot understand the market by just looking at it from far. but many many people miss it. And finally the most important tip!!! Only invest money you can afford to lose!! Sure this is a basic point. nothing comes free. currency. but in many cases. Once you really get into the stock market you do not need to follow these rules anymore. You should only invest money that you can honestly afford to lose!! Everyone enters into investments with the idea of earning big profits. In more simpler form. But then again. and rely on "hype" to tell the company's story. this means you buy a promise to convey ownership of the asset. commodities. The legal terms of a contract are much more varied and flexible than the terms of property ownership. (Especially if you are new to investing in the stock market!) Please understand that the above tips are tips for beginners. It is a generic term for a variety of financial instruments. derivatives are financial security such as an option or future whose value is derived in part from the value and characteristics of another security. you MUST follow these rules. But if you are a new investor. You will have to loose some money. stock market index or anything else are known as “Derivatives”.before you invest. you will basically not loose too much! Derivatives Commodities whose value is derived from the price of some underlying asset like securities. Everything has a price. make some bad decisions and then only will you really understand the market. bullion.
derivatives – wittingly or unwittingly. An ‘options’ contract gives the owner the right to buy or sell an asset at a set price on or before a given date. Derivatives securities or derivatives products are in real terms contracts rather than solid as it fairly sounds. The other examples of derivatives are warrants and convertible bonds (similar to shares in that they are assets). Beyond this. On the other hand. or currency. bond.. It is likely that any person who has funds invested. the underlying asset is usually a commodity. an insurance policy or a pension fund. India Commodity Market 33 . where the contract details may not be standardized. that they are investing in. they will be usually be fairly standardised and governed by the property of securities laws in an appropriate country. and exposed to. Shares or bonds are financial assets where one can claim on another person or corporation. He bet that the value derived from the underlying asset will increase or decrease by a certain amount within a certain fixed period of time. the derivatives range is only limited by the imagination of investment banks. But derivatives are usually contracts. On the other hand. a contract is merely an agreement between two parties. When a person invests in derivative. the owner of a ‘futures’ contract is obligated to buy or sell the asset. stock. ‘Futures’ and ‘options’ are two commodity traded types of derivatives.
Such markets are social institutions that facilitate exchange of goods for money. acted as mere parasites who did not add any value to the product but raised its price which was eventually faced by the consumers.the extent of the retail market (both organized and unorganized) has evolved in leaps and bounds.The vast geographical extent of India and her huge population is aptly complemented by the size of her market. It was the retailers who finally sold the goods to the consumers. we shall deal with the former in a little detail. The cost of goods is estimated in terms of domestic currency . Reliance. the success stories of the commodity market of India in recent years has mainly centered around the growth generated by the Retail Sector. The broadest classification of the Indian Market can be made in terms of the commodity market and the bond market. the retail outlets belong to both the organized as well as the unorganized sector. The unorganized retail outlets of the yesteryears consist of small shop owners who are price takers where consumers face a highly competitive price structure. The improvement in transport facilities made the retailers directly interact with the producers and hence the need for whole sellers was not felt. In recent years. Such 34 . The traditional wholesale market in India dealt with whole sellers who bought goods from the farmers and manufacturers and then sold them to the retailers after making a profit in the process. With the passage of time the importance of whole sellers began to fade out for the following reasons: The whole sellers in most situations. Moreover. India Commodity Market can be subdivided into the following two categories: Wholesale Market Retail Market Let us now take a look at what the present scenario of each of the above markets is like. Here. The commodity market in India comprises of all palpable markets that we come across in our daily lives. Almost every commodity under the sun both agricultural and industrial are now being provided at well distributed retail outlets throughout the country. Tata and others. In fact. The organized sector on the other hand are owned by various business houses like Pantaloons.
The money market securities that are issued by the government or financial institutions or large corporations are very liquid. Demand for commodities is likely to become four times by 2010 than what it presently is. Transactions take place over phone or the electronic system. Since the money market is extremely safe.markets are usually sell a wide range of articles both agricultural and manufactured. Unlike the stock exchanges the money market securities do not operate in exchanges or through brokers. edible and inedible. The money market is a type of a dealer market where firms purchase securities in their own account by assuming the risks themselves. the total valuation of the Indian Retail Market is estimated to cross Rs. Treasury Bills and 35 . Money Market Definition Money Market Definition is simply meant as the short-term debt market. Since the money market securities trade at very high denominations it becomes very difficult for the individual investors to have access to it.000 billion by the year 2010. Although the stock market is associated with high risks and high returns . it yields very low returns unlike the bond market. 10. The money market deals with very short term debt securities that mature in less than a year. perishable and durable. Considering the present growth rate. then it becomes risky to keep savings there. Money Market When the stock prices show a downward trend . Modern marketing strategies and other techniques of sales promotion enable such markets to draw customers from every section of the society. One may browse through the following links to have a more detailed information about money market. However the growth of such markets has still centered around the urban areas primarily due to infrastructural limitations. many are risk averse and prefer to invest in the more secure money market .
Demand AND SUPPLY One of the major factors affecting stock price is demand and supply. So. Find detailed on the world money market. then you should always make a good survey of the whole market. rates on bankers' acceptance etc. When people are buying more stocks. Money Market Rates Money Market Rates can be simply defined as the market rates including the broker call loan rate. On the other hand if people are selling more stocks. World Money Market World Money Market has been providing origination. then the price of that stock falls. The trend of the stock market trading directly affects the price. As you know that you cannot predict the stock market. so in that case you need to know the functioning of the market. So let us discuss about the different factors affecting the stock price in this article. trading and the distribution of short-term debt instruments across different regions over the world. Get the method of finding the money market rates. you should be very careful when you decide to invest in the Indian stock market. Market Cap 36 . which renders a clear-cut idea on making investment. federal funds rate. Major Factors That Affect Stock Price in stock market globally When you wish to invest in the stock market. then the price of that particular stock increases. There are some major factors that affect stock price. Money Market Index Money Market Index is a true indicator of the prevailing money market.certificate of deposits are regarded as the instruments in the money market.
what is the amount you would have to pay? That amount is called the “market capitalization”! To calculate the market cap of a particular company. “small-cap” and “large-cap” stocks. "Market Capitalization"? You probably think that you have never heard of the term “market capitalization” before. Cap” will be the market cap value.170. it can ruin the prospect of a stock. when there is a negative press release. On the other hand. So. the company will either be a “mid-cap” or “largecap” or “small-cap” company! Now the question is. News When you get positive news about a company then it can increase the buying interest in the market. ONGC. has a market cap of “Rs. simply multiply the “current share price” by the “number of shares issued by the company”! Just to give you an idea. You have! When you are talking about “mid-cap”.com and look up the company whose market cap you are interested in finding out! The figure in front of “Mkt. In this case you should remember that news should not matter much but the overall performance of the company matters more. So market cap is another factor that affects stock price. how do YOU calculate the market cap of a particular company? You don’t! Just go to a website like MoneyControl. Earning/Price Ratio 37 . You should always keep in mind that it is not the stock but the market capitalization of the company that determines the worth of the company.705. news is another factor affecting stock price.21 Cr” (when this article was written) Depending on the value of the market cap. you are talking about market capitalization! Market cap or market capitalization is simply the worth of a company in terms of it’s shares! To put it in a simple way. if you were to buy all the shares of a particular company.Never try to guess the worth of a company simply by comparing the price of the stock.
currencies. options. then it has the potential to rise in the near future. Trading Styles There are several different styles of day trading. So. The styles range from short term trading such as scalping where positions are only held for a few seconds or minutes. and can make the same trades at very low cost. and stocks. 38 .Another important factor affecting stock price is the earning/price ratio. Day trading was originally only available to financial companies (such as banks). to longer term swing and position trading where a position may be held throughout the trading day. But with recent technology such as the Internet. suited to different day trader personalities. Some day traders will trade multiple styles. because only they had access to the exchanges and market data. The stock becomes overvalued if the price is much higher than the actual earning. But if this is the case. but most traders will choose a single style and only take that type of trade. and can have open positions for anywhere from a few minutes to a few hours. such as futures. with the goal of making a profit from the difference between the buying price and the selling price. individual traders now have direct access to the same exchanges and market data. depending upon how the trade is doing (whether it is in profit). these are the major factors that affect stock price. This gives you a fair idea of a company’s share price when it is compared to its earnings. The stock becomes undervalued if the price of the share is much lower than the earnings of a company. Day trading differs slightly from other styles of trading in that positions are rarely (if ever) held overnight or when the market being traded is closed. Day Trading Day trading (and trading in general) is the buying and selling of various financial instruments. Most day trading systems have a lot of flexibility.
e. Most day traders will choose a single type of trade. while others prefer to wait for what they consider the best conditions for their trade. counter-trend trades. and ranging trades. and perhaps only make one trade per day. Ranging trades are trades that go back and forth between two prices. However many trades are made.Day trading also has different types of trade.e. and counter-trend trades are trades against the direction of the current price movement (i. The foreign direct investment (FDI) stood at US $ 27. there are other variances between day traders. and the desired goal of making a profit. India attracted total foreign investments of US $ 15. Current State of the Indian Economy: Capital Inflows During the April-January period of 2008-09. but some traders will take different types. and are used when the market is moving sideways. selling if the price is moving up). while the portfolio investment stood at US $ -11. and choose which one to trade depending upon the current condition of the market.426 million. buying if the price is moving up). such as trend trades. Some day traders like to make many trades throughout the trading day. Monthly trends in foreign investments ($ million) Total foreign investments 200708(P) 3617 Months Foreign direct investments Portfolio investments 2007-08(P) 2008-09(P) 2007-08(P) 2008-09(P) 2008-09(P) April 1643 3749 1974 -880 2869 May 2120 3932 39 1852 -288 3972 3644 .881 million. are the same. Trend trades are trades in the direction of the current price movement (i.545 million. the trading process that is used. In addition to the style and type of day trading.
79 = 100) AveragHigh e 1 2 3 4 5 6 40 (Base : 1983 . i.100 S & P CNX Nifty * (Base : 1978 .June 1238 2392 3664 -3010 4902 -618 July August September October November December January February March AprilJanuary 705 831 713 2027 1864 1558 1767 5670 4438 - 2247 2328 2562 1497 1083 1362 2733 27426 6713 -2875 7081 9564 -107 5294 6739 -8904 -1600 - -492 593 -1403 -5243 -574 30 -614 -11881 7418 -2044 7794 11591 1757 6852 8506 -3234 2838 - 1755 2921 1159 -3746 509 1392 2119 15545 Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Stock Market Trends * NSE ..e.50. 1995 = 1000) Aver.84 = 100) Average High Low (Base : November 3. Nifty has been rechristened as ' S & P CNX Nifty with effect BSE Sensitive Index BSE .High age 7 8 9 10 Low Low .
12 8627.84 2854.56 5483.50 4647.88 5201.5 18663.54 11509.91 5195.20 4823.55 41 .64 5756.16945.85 4899.70 Aug-0814722.71 7760.75 7276.79 4739.86 12595.45 2678.96 8895.02 4901.55 July.35 6287.01 Dec-08 9513.00 6564.34 7704.14997.56 5432.05 Oct-08 10549.17 2834.58 10099.62 08 8 7029.69 4504.01 5328.48 3 Sept.20 4835.46 15343.55 5181.57 9 May.8 15049.64 08 5 8621.60 9969.12 16275.60 4476.00 3850.16 16608.58 8907.49 8363.28 8488.6 17600.75 2524.93 8674.59 8982.90 4838.60 7909.1 15503.84 5028.30 June.42 10335.6 13055.36 3121.23 08 8 8095.40 4214.87 5 Nov-08 9453.12 4620.50 4953.50 2895.01 4769.9 17378.18 13461.67 8509.06 4206.92 6776.1 14942.3 16677.30 5 Feb-08 17727.15838.10 8785.2 16063.59 4 Mar.21 3210.91 8739.25 Apr-08 16290.00 4503.79 3148.75 8101.74 4463.33 16729.88 14809.13942.32 08 8 6580.28 12575.49 4417.13716.22 3950.94 10526.94 4443.25 2553.01 9435.80 3816.60 4040.35 4343.Jan-08 19325.92 14048.36 5396.15 4864.67 4124.20 9348.09 4332.24 Jan-09 9350.80 3077.96 10631.59 9240.87 08 1 7362.50 2656.35 7860.45 4802.00 7828.95 4441.12 8451.66 5228.80 7143.6 20873.
750.39 272.86 3.411.36 10.20 3.93 8.91 1.774.472.697.08 Low 7.69 82.5126.96.36.1995.803.18 1.251.809.77 5.10 3.18 4.102.86 1.77 65.19 7.54 2.907.919.161.54 4.408.949.01 2.77 533.90 2.24 13.741.32 4.53 2.549.64 8.04 0.899.38 1.70 202.925.98 2.99 253.27 284.208.37 3.60 11.75 2.24 7.393.06 2.297.330.14 11.367.547.805.53 2.853.28 Full Market Capitalisation % to (Rs.602.274.53 373.77 660.874.60 8.12 BSE Sectoral Indices AUTO BANKEX CD CG FMCG HC IT METAL OIL&GAS POWER PSU R EA LTY 4.917.91 2.43 4.13 3.987.38 3.638.127.28 6.30 17.17 31.18 9.39 2.863.31 184.63 7.27 2.042.112.74 1.60 4.86 977.15 4.60 2.05 13.94 11.77 756.450.346.56 663.71 807.42 8.516.43 5.27 6.285.82 42 137.866.41 3.20 95.802.88 0.06 9.54 211.04 104.897.94 12.505.744.081.46 47.93 2.58 407.46 9.240.890.59 17.28 1.62 8.683.875.96 9.70 High 17. crore) 2.361.18 7.85 11.24 3.64 Turnover % to Total Turnover 31.312.622.74 5.186.38 .060.88 3.806.57 8.95 12.85 29.65 906.23 2.398.16 2.02 6.34 7.692.66 4.516.75 5.688.45 1.293.69 76.427.40 48.79 4.85 4.52 94.77 7.019.99 7.59 86.162.36 182.90 2.990.25 1.08 623.29 (Rs.68 5.62 7.66 3.673.569.853.607. crore) Total Mkt Cap 2.748.888.262.60 128.864.81 3.92 1.001.65 8.490.38 668.52 Week INDICES Close SENSEX MIDCAP SMLCAP BSE-100 BSE-200 BSE-500 14.428.746.45 123.13 921.02 735.598.
638.58 841.472.227.15 8.TECk BSE Dollex Indices DOLLEX-30 DOLLEX100 DOLLEX200 2.328.664.00 -- -- -- -- Note : The market capitalisation of all the indices is free float market capitalisation except for BSEPSU. Trends in Inflation 43 .41 1.13 2.99 12.32 3.67 750.00 --- --- --- --- 591.618.59 0.64 1.00 0.91 2.582.423.72 3.77 570.82 0.
75 191.28 204.00 173.00 August 205.73 175.63 320.40 March 196.02 202.90 April 199.80 171.93 328.88 314.30 200.43 192.50 171.08 44 .05 324.76 May 201.90 315.10 205.(1) Index Numbers Of Wholesale Prices in India ( Monthly Averages) (Base: 1993-94 = 100) Year Month All Commodities Primary Articles Fuel.72 330. Light & Lubricants Manufactured Products 2006 January 196.32 179.08 175.84 317.83 September 207.05 June 203.10 171. Power.76 211.80 177.30 July 204.76 326.30 194.94 177.02 195.28 February 196.78 310.
70 U. The ability to profit in rising or falling markets. The 45 . Volatile markets offering profit opportunities.S. Leveraged trading with low margin requirements. Foreign currencies are constantly and simultaneously bought and sold across local and global markets and traders' investments increase or decrease in value based upon currency movements. If the investor had bought 1000 euros on that date. Many options for zero commission trading. the exchange rate of EUR/USD on Aug 26th. Forex trading or currency trading is always done in currency pairs. typically via brokers. dollars. the Forex rate was 1.Forex An overview of the Forex market The Forex market is a non-stop cash market where currencies of nations are traded. which means that the value of the euro (the numerator of the EUR/USD ratio) increased in relation to the U. 2003 was 1. The main enticements of currency dealing to private investors and attractions for short-term Forex trading are: ♣ ♣ ♣ ♣ ♣ ♣ ♣ 24-hour trading.S. Forex trading The investor's goal in Forex trading is to profit from foreign currency movements. One year later. 5 days a week with non-stop access to global Forex dealers. dollar. An enormous liquid market making it easy to trade most currencies. he would have paid 1085. Standard instruments for controlling risk exposure. Foreign exchange market conditions can change at any time in response to real-time events.0857.2083. For example. This number is also referred to as a "Forex rate" or just "rate" for short.
An open trade (also called an open position) is a trade in which a trader has bought or sold a particular currency pair and has not yet sold or bought back the equivalent amount to close the position. trade only when you expect the currency you are buying to increase in value relative to the currency you are selling. At the very minimum. they were solely speculating on the movement of that particular currency. the person or institution that bought or sold the currency has no plan to actually take delivery of the currency in the end. Analysis Technical analysis is a method of predicting price movements and future market trends by studying charts of past market action. i.30 dollars. However. the U. If the currency you are buying does increase in value.S. They have the same goal . rather. ForexForecasting This article provides insight into the two major methods of analysis used to forecast the behavior of the Forex market.to predict a price or movement. the return on investment (ROI) should be compared to the return on a "risk-free" investment.60 more than what he had started one year earlier.e. Therefore. to know if the investor made a good investment. government going bankrupt or being unable or unwilling to pay its debt obligation. you must sell back the other currency in order to lock in a profit.S. One example of a risk-free investment is long-term U. The technician studies the effect while the fundamentalist studies the cause of market movement. one needs to compare this investment option to alternative investments. In other words. it is estimated that anywhere from 70%-90% of the FX market is speculative. Technical analysis and fundamental analysis differ greatly. Technical analysis is concerned with what has actually 46 . but both can be useful forecast tools for the Forex trader. When trading currencies. government bonds since there is practically no chance for a default. However. Many successful traders combine a mixture of both approaches for superior results. the investor would have USD 122.investor could now sell the 1000 euros in order to receive 1208.
However. There are five categories in Forex technical analysis theory: ♣ ♣ ♣ ♣ ♣ Indicators (oscillators.g. For many given patterns there is a high probability that they will produce the expected results. History repeats itself Forex chart patterns have been recognized and categorized for over 100 years and the manner in which many patterns are repeated leads to the conclusion that human psychology changes little over time. Forex charts are based on market action involving price. political factors and market sentiment. Also. e. supply and demand. Market action discounts everything! This means that the actual price is a reflection of everything that is known to the market that could affect it. Prices move in trends Technical analysis is used to identify patterns of market behavior that have long been recognized as significant.: Relative Strength Index (RSI) Number theory (Fibonacci numbers.happened in the market. 2. rather than what should happen and takes into account the price of instruments and the volume of trading. there are recognized patterns that repeat themselves on a consistent basis. the pure technical analyst is only concerned with price movements. Some major technical analysis tools are described below: Relative Strength Index (RSI): 47 . One major advantage of technical analysis is that experienced analysts can follow many markets and market instruments simultaneously. not with the reasons for any changes. Gann numbers) Waves (Elliott wave theory) Gaps (high-low. 3. open-closing) Trends (following moving average). Technical analysis is built on three essential principles: 1. and creates charts from that data to use as the primary tool. for example.
1.13. Conversely. as prices fall in a strong down trend.The RSI measures the ratio of up-moves to down-moves and normalizes the calculation so that the index is expressed in a range of 0-100. which is an exponential moving average of the difference. which is 38%. If the MACD and trigger lines cross. then the instrument is assumed to be overbought (a situation in which prices have risen more than market expectations).2. The inverse of 62%. Divergence between the stochastic lines and the price action of the underlying instrument gives a powerful trading signal.34. which is a popular Fibonacci retracement number. then this is taken as a signal that a change in the trend is likely. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): This indicator involves plotting two momentum lines. %K and %D that are used to indicate overbought/oversold areas of a chart. The MACD line is the difference between two exponential moving averages and the signal or trigger line. closing prices tend to be near to the extreme low of the period range. 48 . The indicator is based on the observation that in a strong up trend. The ratio of any number to the next larger number is 62%.8.) is constructed by adding the first two numbers to arrive at the third. Stochastic calculations produce two lines. is also used as a Fibonacci retracement number.. period closing prices tend to concentrate in the higher part of the period's range. Number theory: Fibonacci numbers: The Fibonacci number sequence (1. If the RSI is 70 or greater. Stochastic oscillator: This is used to indicate overbought/oversold conditions on a scale of 0-100%.3..5.21. An RSI of 30 or less is taken as a signal that the instrument may be oversold (a situation in which prices have fallen more than the market expectations).
It usually signals the beginning of an important price move. An exhaustion gap is a price gap that occurs at the end of an important trend and signals that the trend is ending. Moving averages are used to smooth price information in order to confirm trends and support and resistance levels. He made his fortune using methods that he developed for trading instruments based on relationships between price movement and time. Trends A trend refers to the direction of prices. A runaway gap is a price gap that usually occurs around the mid-point of an important market trend. it is also called a measuring gap. Waves Elliott wave theory: The Elliott wave theory is an approach to market analysis that is based on repetitive wave patterns and the Fibonacci number sequence. A breakaway gap is a price gap that forms on the completion of an important price pattern.D. falling peaks and troughs constitute a downtrend that determines the steepness of the current trend. For that reason. The breaking of a trend line usually signals a trend reversal. They are also useful in deciding on a trading strategy. particularly in futures trading or a market with a strong up or down trend. Gann was a stock and a commodity trader working in the '50s who reputedly made over million in the markets. but in essence he used angles in charts to determine support and resistance areas and predict the times of future trend changes. known as time/price equivalents. Rising peaks and troughs constitute an up trend. A down gap is formed when the highest price of the day is lower than the lowest price of the prior day.Gann numbers: W. Gaps Gaps are spaces left on the bar chart where no trading has taken place. An up gap is formed when the lowest price on a trading day is higher than the highest high of the previous day. while a down gap is a sign of market weakness. Horizontal peaks and troughs characterize a trading range. An up gap is usually a sign of market strength. 49 . An ideal Elliott wave patterns shows a five-wave advance followed by a three-wave decline. He also used lines in charts to predict support and resistance areas. There is no easy explanation for Gann's methods.
environmental and other relevant factors and statistics that will affect the basic supply and demand of whatever underlies the financial instrument. Fundamental analysis Fundamental analysis is a method of forecasting the future price movements of a financial instrument based on economic. Factors involved in price analysis: Supply and demand. weather and government policy. and other "fundamental" elements. the technical analyst is not much concerned with any of the "bigger picture" factors affecting the market. political. seasonal cycles. DMI (Directional Movement Indicator) is a popular technical indicator used to determine whether or not a currency pair is trending. Fundamental analysis is a macro or strategic assessment of where a currency should be trading based on any criteria but the movement of the currency's price itself.The most common technical tools: Coppock Curve is an investment tool used in technical analysis for predicting bear market lows. Many profitable trades are made moments prior to or shortly after major economic announcements. Unlike the fundamental analyst. many market players use technical analysis in conjunction with fundamental analysis to determine their trading strategy. These criteria often include the economic condition of the country that the currency represents. but concentrates on the activity of that instrument's market. monetary policy. Fundamental analysis focuses on what ought to happen in a market. In practice. 50 .
7.800 in October. Indian GDP grew at 9% in 2007-08 and analysts predicted about 10% growth in 2009. But todays it has been touch the point 14000 due to government stability. Inflation moved to 13% and analysts talked about 15% but inflation fell to 8% in December.000 targets in 2009.000 levels in January and analysts predicted 25. 51 . Investment banking is the most sought after industry in early 2008.What happened in 2008? Sensex was crossed 21. 2008. Crude Oil prices touched $147 per barrel and Goldman Sachs talked about $200 per barrel but crude oil in now trading around $45 levels. 5. 3. They are now either disappeared or merged with banks. Rupee strengthened to 39 against dollar and analysts like ICICI Kamat predicted 35 levels but rupee fell to 50 levels. They are actually now talking about deflation. Experts are now talking about 7% GDP growth in 2008-09 and 5% GDP growth in 2009-10. 6. 2. Commodities traded around all time high levels in June. Experts are now talking about 7. Experts are now talking about 55 against dollar in 2009. 2008 but they collapsed to 2003 levels in December. Experts are now talking about $30 per barrel in 20094. Experts are now talking about 4% levels in 2009.000 levels but Sensex fell to 7. Companies are now shutting down plants and are removing employees due to lack of demand and piling up of inventories.
even good companies with strong growth prospects also fall along with bad overvalued stocks. How long Government will deceive people on this unmanageable issue? Biggest problem with this crisis is no one in the world 52 . 3. Significant statements: 1. One should take into consideration this psychological aspect along with business fundamentals in arriving at price target. We will hear some bankruptcies in 2009 in this sector. stock markets now become more dynamic. Just see what happened to investors in Reliance Power IPO. more volatile and more unpredictable due to more global integration of economy and money flows. Significant falls or rises do not occur in slow motion. If real economy will suffer in early 2009. 80% of price variations occur in 20% of days – time of maximum profits and losses. 6. On 18 May we have been seen more variation in recession time market has been touched the level of 14000 with growth of 2100 points 5. Timing: It is very difficult to time the stock market investments. Stock market investors will never react normally – they will either overreact or under react to the economic or political events. Many real estate stocks were corrected by 70-90% in this year alone. stocks will rise by late 2009. If economic conditions will improve by early 2010. 7. Investment lessons from 2008: 1. Believe in your research and gut feeling.8. Real Estate prices reached stratospheric levels in early 2008 but investors bought them as if there will be no land available for purchase in 2009. 2. stocks fell by October. Unlike in past. the impact on India is also turning out to be stronger than we had earlier expected. 4. DLF and Unitech will cut prices by 30% in 2009. As I said in my previous posts. They are steep and severe. Biggest investment lesson: When investors are in panic mood. Never follow herds. stock markets always move much ahead of real economy. They are now announcing bonuses and free offers to attract buyers. 2008. RBI Governor: “The global economic crisis is turning out to be deeper and longer than we had earlier expected.” This is the frank statement from Subbarao.
boosted by double-digit economic growth and increased investment by domestic investors. This is the first drop for crude oil demand since 1983. Not just whether to pull back from India but how risky pushing forward will be. According to World Bank. International Energy Agency (IEA): for the first time in 25 years. Jack Welch (former GE Chairman): “The terror strike in Mumbai could well tilt the focus of foreign investors towards neighboring China. demand for crude falls. According to RBI Governor. This is the perception of foreigners about India. including pension and insurance funds. Significant statistics: 1. India will grow by 5.Reuters poll: India's economy is expected to grow at its slowest pace in six years in the fiscal year to March 2009.” 5. Indian GDP growth will be around 6. 2. How India’s leaders respond to the Mumbai attacks will tell the business world what it wants and needs to know.2% in 2008-09. 2009-10 may be a more difficult year. 53 . Commerce Minister: “Government will announce second stimulus package in the next week.5% in the last 5 years. World Bank: “The financial crisis is now likely to result in the most serious recession since the 1930s.” 3. 5% in 2009-10 and will be around 7% in 2010-11. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala: “India will see the mother of all bull runs in the next 4 or 5 years. Many investors will be thinking about tilting the balance to China. Textiles.2% in 2009-10.” 6.8% in 2008-09 and 6.8% in 2009. It estimates for Indian GDP: 6. Indian economy never grew less than 7.knows about magnitude and duration of financial crisis.” 4. Agriculture and Construction are the priority sectors for Government in the next package.
000) in 26 years in USA.2% in November. Anil Ambani family holds 67% stake in the company. 7. 3.2% and 6. 6. R-Com stock lost 70% of value in 2008. Asian Development Bank (ADB): Growth rates of China and India will be at 8. 2.2. IT and Hospitality sectors are the worst affected while Telecom is the most optimistic one. 5.73. World Bank: Global trade will fall for the first time since 1982. Positive Stock market news: 1. McKinsey report: United States credit losses may top $3 trillion. India will be in election mood when we need these measures. India needs particular attention. World economy will grow by 0. Government stability is big positive reason for sensex. More than 20 lakh Americans will lose jobs in 2009 and unemployment rate will touch 9% level in 2009. Promoter will not reduce his holding.5% respectively in 2009. Goldman Sachs: China GDP growth for 2009 is around 6%. 54 . These losses will increase if another major asset class will collapse 4. the first decline since June 2001 . DLF and Unitech may lower property prices by 30% in mid-2009 to stimulate buyers.9% in 2009 and inflows to developing countries will fall by 50%. given its weaker fiscal position. 3.the largest yearover-year monthly decline since April 1999. 8. Shocking! China will grow at 9% in 2010 if Government takes proper simulative decisions. New claims for unemployment benefits reached their highest level (5. China: Exports fell by 2. Global Telecom Companies are planning to buy 20-25% stake in Reliance Communications. This deal is beneficial for investors as only 12% of shares are available for trading after this purchase in the secondary market. These job losses will have cascading effect on real economy. Manpower survey: India is the second most optimistic employment market in the world but there will freezing in hiring in the next 3 months.
We may hear some shocking news on this front in the next 2 years. NPA statistics: NPAs of ICICI Bank in 2007: Rs 5. 2008: World economy will grow by 2.2% in 2009. NPAs will not only propel the negative sentiment but increase the banks reluctance to give loans which will once again destroy the positive aspects of the bailout packages. As stock markets are unlikely to recover in the next 12-15 months. November.9% in 2009.5% in 2008. NPAs of ICICI Bank in 2008: Rs 9. 2008: Asian economy will grow by 6.. September. it is interesting to see how promoters will clear their dues. Interesting statistics about Asian and World economies: 1. 2008: Asian economy will grow by 7. December. World Bank estimates: A. Only positive aspect is many PSU banks reported fall in NPAs in 2008 over 2007 except SBI and IOB. 2008: Asian economy will grow by 7.500 crore.9% in 2008. NPA shocks: Many people are underestimating the impact of Non Performing Assets (NPAs). B. ADB estimates about Asian economy in 2008: A. 2008: Asian economy will grow by 5. B. 55 . September.FCCB shocks: Foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs?) of many companies will be due for repayment in the next 3 years.2% in 2009. 2. NPAs will affect in 2 ways. 2008: World economy will grow by 0.8% in 2009. December. B.930 crore. 3. ADB estimates about Asian economy in 2009: A. December.
It is not invested with a long term mindset. can not directly deal in buying/selling of sticks. 56 . The cause of concern for the Government was that in this major share of FIIs. P/E of Sensex in 2008 economic slowdown: 9. this concept of allowing anonymous investors in the market broaden the reach of the market. Current P/E of Sensex: 10. which ultimately allows them trade in the market. Yet.4. more than half was in the form of hot money being invested into the market by anonymous investors who pump money into the market by utilizing the Participatory Note (PN) facility. The economy is as sound as it was in the boom time. the market crashed because the Government tried to instill some sort of regulation in it. the regulatory body for stocks in India. The companies are as profitable as they were a few days ago. it also ensure free entry of dollars into Indian economy as well as increase the percentage of hot money in the market.5 This is a much severe crisis than 2001 slowdown. the Government was looking for someway to curb this inflow of dollars. The hot money is that kind of money which is invested only for a short time to make some quick buck. Let me explain it a bit : As I wrote in my last article that a major portion of the money being invested into the share market is coming from FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors). So they took a sort of permission from registered FIIs by buying Participatory Notes (PN) from them in exchange of dollars. Though. Making the availability of Participatory Notes some difficult for foreign investors was one step Government thought would help control the inflow of dollars. All those foreign investors who are not registered with the SEBI (Stock Exchange Board of India). Since the continuous inflow of dollar into Indian economy is making the Indian currency (Rupee) stronger and thus making the export costlier. Effect of fluctuation on Indian stock market Nothing actually. So a few days ago the SEBI contemplated on a draft policy to make the issuing of PN difficult for FIIs.
The main reason of my belief is that the Indian economy as a whole is performing very well Same is the case with most Indian companies listed in the market. it is also because of the appreciation in the price of the shares of Reliance industries. here are some of my observations on what can happen if the stock market boom continues for lone in India: First some positive one First of all if this boom continues for long. are going to become really rich. we must not forget that these people are here only till they find a new market more profitable than India. However. they will immediately shift there. This news will from the Business standard give you some detail of this exercise done by the Government. However. The word crorepati (multimillionaire) can soon become a common thing in India all thanks to share market. it will continue itâ€™s upward swing despite such momentary crash. Once they find a place which offer better return on their investment than India. there is only a remote possibility of that as of now. Ultimately the Government had to rush in to alleviate the growing concern of Investors by stating that it would not control the issuing of PN to investors. there is a word of caution here. $100000 per minute ! Though it has much to do with his huge and expanding empire of Reliance industries. With the above note. As of now the market is still fluctuating and is yet to be stabilized. who are in the market for quite sometime. they started exiting form the market by selling their stock. you never know what can happen in future.the market fell more than a 1000 point in a few hours and had to shut down for some time. Yes you read it write. Secondly most investors.This was the step which gave a jolt to the buying spree of FIIs. As people found that it would be difficult to trade in the market in future owing to non-availability of PN. soon the richest person in the world will be an Indian. Result. That’s why most expert 57 . I think that in all probability. On the last count (as per a leading newspaper report) Mukesh Ambani. As this boom is being driven by FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors). Though. the chairman of Reliance group was earning Rs 40 Lakhs ($ 100000) per minute.
this can only be done if Government put some break on the inflow of dollars by FIIs which will actually mean putting a break on stock market boom. The profits margin of these industries have reduced as it mostly depend on current value of dollar. As I explained in my earlier article. Some of our major export oriented industries such as Softwares and textiles are feeling the heat every day. Ironically. In nutshell if I am to summarize this boom of stock market. a increase in interest rate in US may reverse this flow of FIIs. The RBI is facing difficultly in managing this continuous inflow of dollars as their huge supply and easy availability has resulted into dollarâ€™s depreciation vis-Ã -vis Rupee. Recession A recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for two or more consecutive quarters of a year. The last but not the least is the overvaluation of many stocks in the market. Or we may see emergence of a new market with great potential on some other place on earth. Owing to stock market boom.are advising people to stick to their long-term investment plan and don’t make any move in haste. All these things. the continued depreciation of dollar is also a cause of deep concern which needs to be addressed. A recession is also preceded by several quarters of slowing down.) The investment being made by FIIs in Indian share market has resulted in to a huge inflow of dollars into the economy. There is a pressure on Government to mange the appreciation of rupee to favour exporters. can put a break on this boom. there is another very interesting situation being faced by Reserve Bank of India(RBI) (the leading central bank which decides various economic policies here just like the Federal Reserve Bank of US. I must say that this boom is not going to last forever as it is dependent on some very volatile factors that may change in the times to come. However. 58 . The Rupee is becoming stronger to dollar thus making imports cheaper and export costlier. (it actually happened some days ago as I described above) Government certainly donâ€™t want to spoil the party that is going on in the stock market. if happen. Some experts have opined that market is trading at 22 to 23 times of actual earning and no one can justify these valuations.
When the global economy has been cooling down. but investors are a worried lot. However. stock prices are now at a low ebb in India with little cheer coming to investors. The Fed will almost certainly respond with sharp cuts in interest rates towards the end of the month. And investors seem to have little faith in the Bush rescue plan's ability to ward off a recession in the US. The stock markets reflect the buoyancy of the economy. The Sensex crashed by nearly 13 per cent in just two trading sessions in January. The markets bounced back after the US Fed cut interest rates. lay-offs and a sharp rise in unemployment. A recession normally takes place when consumers lose confidence in the growth of the economy and spend less.Causes of recession An economy which grows over a period of time tends to slow down the growth as a part of the normal economic cycle. but the market has already 59 . The way in which Asian stock prices responded last week to the fall of the Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices by 4 per cent. Stock markets & recession The economy and the stock market are closely related. This leads to a decreased demand for goods and services. it was inevitable that stock markets around the world would start catching the chill. which in turn leads to a decrease in production. The Indian stock markets also crashed due to a slowdown in the US economy. along with European stocks. Investors around the world have taken note of the fact that the broad-based S&P 500 index is at a 16-month low. An economy typically expands for 6-10 years and tends to go into a recession for about six months to 2 years. and the financial sector in particular has been heading from one cold shower to the next. In the US. Investors spend less as they fear stocks values will fall and thus stock markets fall on negative sentiment. a recession is yet to be declared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. hitting a 10-month low. has also punctured a hole in the decoupling argument (which said Asia would not be hit by an America-based problem) that had become fashionable in recent weeks.
What began with profit-booking and unwinding of long positions cascaded on Friday into a 3. On a forward basis.150 billion)).which would mean wiping out the gains of the past three months. among all Asian markets. which is not cheap in anyone's book. which pulled in a record amount of application money (Rs 1. fresh buyingcannot be very far away. Also relevant was the Reliance Power IPO. it is a large enough sum for the market to go into correction mode. Yet. When coupled with the data showing that the export target for the year will be missed by a wide margin.5 per cent decline in the Sensex. it was inevitable that stock prices would have to come off their dizzy highs. buying may soon begin A global liquidity surplus had certainly contributed to momentum buying. Even if a third or a fourth of that was being garnered by sale of stocks. There is no doubt that valuations had become expensive. when compared to the same quarter a year earlier. no more.200 crore (Rs 22 billion) in January. Even after the 10 per cent correction from the market's peak.discounted for that. Investors will also have noticed that the third-quarter corporate numbers show significant deceleration in both sales and profit growth. Impact of a US recession on India A slowdown in the US economy is bad news for India.15. and FIIs have been net sellers to the tune of Rs 2. The question is whether the correction that has occurred so far is enough for fresh buying to emerge. This may have been because the correction in the overheated Chinese stock market began some weeks ago. Foreign institutional investors had moved to the sidelines in the secondary markets even earlier. Indian markets worst hit It is interesting that Indian markets were hit the most.5.000 crore (Rs 1.000-odd -. and that the industrial sector has suffered a sharp slowdown. Provided the general economic and corporate news does not get worse than has already been anticipated. or whether a further fall is required before value-based buying starts. The floor therefore would probably be a Sensex level of 17. 60 . the Sensex trades at an FY09 estimated P/E of 18. the Sensex trades at a trailing P/E multiple of 24.
61 . But experts note that the long-term prospects for India are stable. say experts. the DJIA was down 30 per cent in December 2002 from the highs it hit in January 2000. Indian companies with big tickets deals in the US would see their profit margins shrinking. The worries for exporters will grow as rupee strengthens further against the dollar.Indian companies have major outsourcing deals from the US. the Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 22. Black Monday saw bloodbath on Dalal Street as the Indian stock markets crashed by over 1430 points in afternoon trade (the market has since then recovered somewhat). factors. The whole of Asia would be hit by a recession as it depends on the US economy. Oil may get cheaper brining down inflation. In contrast.7 per cent.6 per cent. Hedge funds and FIIs could have been the biggest sellers in the Indian markets. If the fall from the record highs reached is taken. The presence of hedge funds across asset classes. The India economy is likely to lose between 1 to 2 percentage points in GDP growth in the next fiscal year. India's exports to the US have also grown substantially over the years. Asia is yet to totally decouple itself (or be independent) from the rest of the world. One of the primary triggers is the huge fear of the United States' economy going into a recession with foreign institutional investors trying to reallocate their funds from risky emerging markets to stable developed markets. booking profits and making the most of the unprecedented bull run that has dominated the Indian stock market for a long time now. The current volatility is also linked to global bourses. has increased event-related volatility. reminding investors that there is no one-way bet on the stock market. There is a big correlation among global markets. Analysts are now expecting a cut in US interest rates. the Sensex was down 45 per cent. A weak dollar could bring more foreign money to Indian markets. Between January 2001 and December 2002. One. along with increased global movement of capital. while the Sensex fell by 14. there is a change in the global investment climate. A recession could bring down oil prices to $70.
he added. he added. said Vora. a technical correction in the derivatives segment has perpetrated a larger fall. 62 . The Sensex can fall another 10-15%. India is trading at 65% premium to emerging markets and India is playing catchup with other declining global markets. other emerging markets were down nearly 20% so India is playing catch-up. At current levels it would be a buy call and we would not advise investors to wait to catch the bottom. he said. he added. said Mihir Vora of HSBC Mutual Fund. This could be seen as a buying opportunity and we will revisit market valuations after the correction. Analysts expect the markets to continue to be choppy for a while till global liquidity and commodity prices settle in. on NDTV Profit. There is no need to get very pessimistic that this is the end of equity investing in India. said Adrian Mowat of JP Morgan. on NDTV Profit. On the global front.Volatility in commodities markets has also significantly affected equity markets. With the markets falling. On the local front there has been a huge build-up in derivatives positions and volatility led to margin calls. he said. Also many IPOs have sucked out liquidity from the primary market into the secondary market. A combination of global and local factors is affecting this market.
Strength: ¬ High return ¬ Large investment ¬ Acquire capital for expanding the business ¬ Secure the future losses Weakness: ¬ High risk ¬ Based on the fluctuation. ¬ Market is providing new opportunities and new options to Threat : ¬ Recession ¬ New government ¬ Bubble burst ¬ Fluctuates dollar prices 63 s: al si O S T n a y . It becomes high loss when market goes down. ¬ Can’t predict W Opportunity: ¬ Lot of people wants to invest but don’t invest due to insufficient knowledge.
¬ Stock market is all about future prediction. ¬ Stock market is very sensitive market. may survive in the market and generates profits or good return whether the market is down ¬ Investors should not invest on the basis of rumors they must observe the market condition or trends Indian economy and than invest If they wanna generate good return.Conclusion: Through this research we can conclude that: ¬ Stock market fluctuates by the external environment. 64 .” ¬ Comparatively stock market is less risky than the other market and generates more money for the economy ¬ One who have good knowledge in stock market. ¬ It is based on “high risk and high return.
htm www. Madhumati page no.tradingstock.com The economics times - 65 .org www.icai.7 & 8 Investment Analysis and portfolio management-M Raghunathan.bseindia.200.ltslnewsStock_ExchangesStock. 6.209 Journals and magazines JARN.worldbank.tdd.stockmarkets.Hafer work package no.Hafer.Rik W.24. Published Feb 2009 Business today Business standard Websites: www. W.26. 23. Scott E. Hein.28.org http://en.Bibliography Text books The Stock Market-The Stock Market .wikipedia.com http://econ. R.com www.org www.