NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2011

Inside This Issue

Gwen Wang
Keller Williams Realty 505 Hamilton Ave., Ste. 100 Palo Alto, CA 94301 (650) 454-8568 (415) 225-4936 Gwen.Wang@kw.com http://www.MenloRealEstate.com http://homes-for-sale-PaloAlto-today.com
DRE #01393647

> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1 > MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2 > HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2 > FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3 > CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3 > ANNUAL TABLES ................................. 4

The Real Estate Report local market trends
Trends at a Glance

SAN MATEO COUNTY

Underwater Mortgage Holders Get Help
The Home Affordable Refinance Program, or HARP, is being revamped.

be a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac instrument, owned or guaranteed by one agency or the other, and you must not have missed any It was originally aimed at a housing market that had payments in the last six months (since April 24, an estimated 5 million struggling homeowners. at present), or have more than one missed Unfortunately, HARP’s original terms and limits payment over the last year. were so restrictive that the program, to date, has reached fewer than 900,000 mortgage holders. The The FHFA, or Federal Housing Finance Agency, major restriction eliminated any homeowner whose which currently controls Fannie, Freddie, and 12 existing mortgage represented more than 125% of other Federal Home Loan Banks – located in Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas, Des the loan-to-value of their home. Moines, Indianapolis, New York, Pittsburgh, San The revamping of HARP will let borrowers whose Francisco, Seattle and Topeka - is expected to mortgages are backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie announce the final program parameters by Mac refinance those underwater mortgages, November 15. presumably no matter how far their home’s value has fallen. In fact, current loan-to-value ratio on the This is a much needed expansion of the program. existing mortgage must be greater than 80 percent. Unfortunately, there are over ten million homeowners underwater and this new HARP will And, mortgage holders can’t double-dip; that is, if only be available to 10% of them. they already have an earlier HARP loan, they can’t get another at the even better rate of 4%. The new MARKET STATISTICS terms also eliminate the need for yet another The sale of single-family, re-sale homes were down property appraisal in calculating LTV, and the 11% year-over-year. Year-to-date, home sales are program’s end date has been extended. up 6.9%. The plan, announced last week still has certain Condo sales were up 22.9% year-over-year. Yeareligibility limits. For example, your mortgage has to to-date, condo sales are up 2.4%. San Mateo County Homes: Sales Momentum

(Single-family Homes) Oct 11 Sep 11 Oct 10 Median Price: $ 674,000 $ 645,000 $ 675,000 Av erage Price: $ 913,650 $ 843,857 $ 973,976 Home Sales: 325 403 365 Pending Sales: 675 609 598 Inv entory : 1,139 1,166 1,428 Sale/List Price Ratio: 98.5% 98.3% 98.2% Day s on Market: 56 59 58 Day s of Inv entory : 105 84 117

The median price for homes was down 0.1% yearover-year. The median price for condos was down 6.6% yearover-year. That’s eighteen months in a row the median price has been lower than the year before. Inventory of both homes and condos continues to be weak. Home inventory was down 20.2% compared to last October. Please note, only active listings are included in this figure. Numbers from the local associations include properties that are also in a pending status, meaning they have an accepted offer, but haven’t been taken off the market. Condo inventory was down 35.8% year-over-year. Please remember, while statistics are nice, they will not determine the price you pay or get for a property. That will come down to you and the buyer or seller.

50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% 0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASO 6 7 8 9 0 1 -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% Sales Pending Median © 2011 rereport.com

Gwen Wang | Gwen.Wang@kw.com | (650) 454-8568

The Real Estate Report

Mortgage Rate Outlook
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
07-11 04-11 01-11 10-10 07-10 04-10 01-10 10-09 07-09 04-09 01-09 10-08 07-08 04-08 01-08 10-07 07-07 04-07 01-07 10-06 07-06 04-06 01-06 10-05 07-05 04-05 01-05 3.0%

Nov. 4, 2011 -- HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- found that the overall average rate for 30year fixed-rate mortgages eased by nine basis points (0.09%) from last week, slipping up to an average 4.36%, the lowest reading in a month's time. The FRMI's 15-year companion closed the week with an eight basis point decline to 3.66%. Important to homebuyers and low-equity-stake refinancers, 30year FHA-backed mortgages shed seven hundredths of a percentage point to land a 3.93%, a new record low, while the overall average for 5/1 Hybrid ARMs dropped by five basis points to 3.11%.

and unemployment while increasing their projections for inflation for 2012 and beyond. None of this was particularly good news, but did underscore the Fed's recent decision to hold short-term interest rates at low levels at least though mid-2013 as it would appear the economy may need the additional support should the Fed's expectations turn into reality. Of course, there's nothing that says these forecasts will come true. Previous ones predicting a more rosy economy by now never materialized, and just as the old ones were wrong to the upside, perhaps these new ones will be wrong to the downside, too. Opportunities to finance or refinance remain strong, and if you are so inclined, you might do well to get your loan in process before month's end, when at least a minor crush of refinancing is to be expected due to the expansion of the HARP program. The slight slip in rates this week will probably hold for next week, unless a spate of optimism for a Greek deal comes to market. Figure on a couple basis point move upward at most.

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

While news about the economy continues to suggest we will avoid falling into a new recession, there's not much to suggest that a strong breakout of growth is imminent, either, and the slow economic slog continues, if at perhaps a better pace. No one knows this better than the Federal Reserve, which noted in the release which signaled the close of their two-day meeting this week that "economic growth strengthened somewhat in the third quarter" but "recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated." The Fed also released its latest set of economic projections, and marked down the paths for GDP growth

The chart above shows the National monthly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages as compiled by HSH.com. The average includes mortgages of all sizes, including conforming, "expanded conforming," and jumbo.

San Mateo County - October 2011
Single-Family Homes
Cities County Atherton Belmont Burlingame Daly City El Granada East Palo Alto Foster City Hillsborough Half Moon Bay Millbrae Menlo Park Montara Moss Beach Pacifica Portola Valley Redw ood City Redw ood Shores San Bruno San Carlos San Mateo S. San Francisco Woodside Prices Median Average Sales Pend Inven DOI $ 674,000 $ 913,650 325 675 1,139 105 $ 3,811,250 $ 3,749,380 4 9 31 233 $ 806,000 $ 984,196 11 25 42 115 $ 1,156,500 $ 1,289,800 12 26 33 83 $ 448,100 $ 458,732 40 82 111 83 $ 480,000 $ 568,000 3 4 24 240 $ 230,000 $ 246,879 13 41 21 48 $ 890,000 $ 930,000 4 22 16 120 $ 1,884,000 $ 2,643,500 8 11 50 188 $ 595,500 $ 996,143 7 12 73 313 $ 800,500 $ 826,722 9 14 31 103 $ 1,411,750 $ 1,412,800 24 38 54 68 $ 700,000 $ 700,000 1 4 19 570 $ 500,000 $ 500,000 1 3 10 300 $ 530,000 $ 604,733 15 45 95 190 $ 1,900,000 $ 2,896,670 3 9 21 210 $ 714,000 $ 786,314 36 76 132 110 $ 947,500 $ 1,005,000 4 6 11 83 $ 525,000 $ 500,972 16 52 45 84 $ 932,500 $ 972,870 30 30 38 38 $ 707,500 $ 811,818 40 80 119 89 $ 452,950 $ 460,029 34 62 70 62 $ 3,566,500 $ 3,475,170 6 13 53 265 SP/LP 98.5% 96.5% 99.8% 97.8% 97.9% 94.9% 100.8% 94.5% 96.8% 91.3% 97.7% 102.9% 100.0% 83.5% 97.5% 95.9% 99.5% 100.0% 98.6% 99.2% 99.7% 97.1% 93.2%

% Change from Year Before
Prices Med Ave -0.1% -6.2% 41.2% 9.7% -6.7% 17.0% -11.4% -1.8% -13.5% -11.4% -11.3% 4.0% -3.2% -6.1% -11.9% -6.7% -36.4% -16.7% -29.9% -6.8% -9.5% -2.7% -13.1% -11.7% 250.0% 250.0% n/a n/a 1.9% 8.5% 31.0% 99.8% 17.8% 9.2% -3.7% 0.6% -1.7% -5.1% 16.6% 9.9% -15.3% -2.8% -17.6% -22.0% -41.1% -51.1% Sales -11.0% -63.6% -15.4% -29.4% -2.4% 0.0% -40.9% -33.3% 33.3% -22.2% -25.0% -4.0% 0.0% n/a -11.8% 200.0% -29.4% -33.3% -27.3% 30.4% -20.0% 126.7% 50.0% Pend2 12.9% 80.0% -10.7% 0.0% 20.6% 33.3% -2.4% 57.1% -31.3% 0.0% -12.5% -5.0% 0.0% n/a 45.2% 12.5% 15.2% -40.0% 73.3% 3.4% -2.4% 14.8% 85.7% Inven -20.2% -27.9% 2.4% -32.7% -20.1% -27.3% -16.0% -46.7% -36.7% -12.0% 3.3% -35.7% 26.7% n/a 17.3% -41.7% -15.9% -47.6% -28.6% -37.7% -19.0% -12.5% -23.2%

Page 2

San Mateo County Homes - Prices & Sales
(3-month moving average—prices in $000's) 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 0 FM AMJ JASOND0 FM AMJ JASOND0 FM AMJ JASOND1 FM AMJ JASOND1 FM AMJ JASO 7 8 9 0 1 100
Single-family Hom e Sales Median & Average Prices

$1,500 $1,300 $1,100 $900 $700 $500 $300 $100

500

FORECLOSURE STATISTICS
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, in San Mateo County were down 26.1% in September from August. Year-over-year, notices were off 11.6%. Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auction, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before sale, were down 29.5% from August, and down 33.5% year-over-year. This is the fourth month in a row notices have been lower than the month before. After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements. Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank. In August, cancellations were down 11.7% year-overyear, and down 9.8% from August. Properties going back to the bank were down in September from August by 33.6%. Year-over-year, properties going back to the back were down 48.2%. The total number of homes that have had a notice of default filed decreased by 20.9% in September compared to September 2010. The total number of homes scheduled for sale declined by 9.7% year-over-year Unfortunately, the total number of homes owned by the bank was up 12.2% year-over-year. The banks now own 1,137 properties in San Mateo County.

San Mateo County Condos- Prices & Sales
(3-month moving average—prices in $000's)
Median & Average Prices

$700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASO 7 8 9 0 1

160 140
Condo Sales

Table Definitions _______________ Median Price
The price at which 50% of prices were higher and 50%were lower.

120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Average Price
Add all prices and divide by the number of sales.

SP/LP
Sales price to list price ratio or the price paid for the property divided by the asking price.

San Mateo County - October 2011
Condos/Townhomes
Cities County Burlingame Daly City Foster City Menlo Park Redw ood City Redw ood Shores San Bruno San Carlos San Mateo S. San Francisco $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

% Change from Year Before

DOI
Days of Inventory, or how many days it would take to sell all the property for sale at the current rate of sales.

Prices Prices Median Average Sales Pend Inven DOI SP/LP Med Ave Sales Pend2 Inven 355,000 $ 410,482 86 237 303 106 98.2% -6.6% 2.4% 22.9% 39.4% -35.8% 390,000 $ 390,000 1 3 10 300 97.7% -22.0% -10.0% -66.7% -62.5% -41.2% 277,000 $ 280,333 9 33 34 113 99.9% -5.6% -4.8% 28.6% 106.3% -24.4% 477,500 $ 469,650 10 24 25 75 97.2% -1.5% -10.0% 11.1% -4.0% -41.9% 825,000 $ 1,031,000 5 9 15 90 98.2% 33.1% 106.6% 0.0% 0.0% -40.0% 240,000 $ 240,000 1 7 15 450 100.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 360,000 $ 367,333 3 7 16 160 97.6% -29.7% -27.0% -62.5% -41.7% -52.9% 170,000 $ 161,583 6 27 19 95 97.2% -16.5% -30.7% -25.0% 35.0% -56.8% 477,500 $ 540,250 4 11 20 150 96.9% -21.9% -13.0% 0.0% 37.5% -28.6% 385,000 $ 416,460 24 64 89 111 97.8% 16.7% 6.2% 84.6% 137.0% -37.3% 300,000 $ 272,000 7 27 16 69 98.5% -10.4% -16.0% 40.0% 68.8% -30.4%

Pend
Property under contract to sell that hasn’t closed escrow.

Inven
Number of properties actively for sale as of the last day of the month.

Page 3

THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
San Mateo County

Gwen Wang Keller Williams Realty
505 Hamilton Ave., Ste. 100 Palo Alto, CA 94301 (650) 454-8568 (415) 225-4936 Gwen.Wang@kw.com http://www.MenloRealEstate.com http://homes-for-sale-PaloAlto-today.com

This is not intended as a solicitation if your home is currently listed.

San Mateo County Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Price Change
50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% 0 FMA M J J A SO ND0 F MA M J J A SO ND0 F MA M J J A SO ND1 FMA M J J A SO ND1 FMA M J J A SO 7 8 9 0 1 -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0%

This Real Estate Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com. Information contained herein is deemed accurate and correct, but no warranty is implied or given.

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