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TAIWAN WILL NOT DECLARE INDEPENDENCE- EVEN THE PREVIOUSLY PRO-INDEPENDENCE GREEN PARTY IS BACKING OFF DIRECT INDEPENDANCE. The Economist (weekly publicationon world issues), Economist Publishing, 24 September 2011 [“Dim Sum for China”
http://www.economist.com/node/21530121] How realistic is that fear? Under the previous green president, Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan’s relations with both China and America plumbed new lows. Mr Chen’s successor as leader of the greens, Tsai Ing-wen, is running against Mr Ma in the presidential election in January. But she is a lot more moderate than Mr Chen, and the provocateurs who want to declare formal independence
are mainly old and fading. Younger green politicians may be nationalistic, but they seem more pragmatic and understand the imperative of American support.
CHINESE RELATIONS WOULD DETERIORATE, IN ADDITION OTHER NATIONS IN THE REGION WOULD LOSE FAITH IN AMERICA. The Economist (weekly publicationon world issues), Economist Publishing, 24 September 2011 [“Dim Sum for China”
But to walk away from Taiwan would in effect mean ceding to China the terms of unification. Over the long run, that will not improve Sino-American relations. Five thousand years of Chinese diplomatic history suggest it is more likely to
respect a strong state than a weak and vacillating one. Appeasement would also probably increase China’s appetite for regional domination. Its “core interests” in the area seem to be growing. To Chinese military planners, Taiwan is a potential base from which to
push out into the Pacific. At minimum, that would unsettle Japan to the north and the Philippines to the south. Strong American backing for Taiwan has served the region well so far. It has improved, rather than damaged, cross-straits
relations, for Mr Ma would never have felt able to open up to China without it, and it has been the foundation for half a century of peace and security throughout East Asia (see Banyan). To abandon Taiwan now would bring out the worst in China, and lead the
region’s democracies to worry that America might be willing to let them swing too. That is why, as long as China insists on the right to use force in Taiwan, America should continue to support the island.
ALT CAUSALITY- TAIWAN IS A PRODUCT OF MUTUAL DISTRUST NOT THE CAUSE.
Richard Weitz (staff writer), The Diplomat, 10 April 2010 [“China Overplaying Taiwan Arms” http://the-diplomat.com/2010/06/21/chinaoverplaying-taiwan-arms/2/] But it’s anyway doubtful that the United States and China could have a healthy defence relationship even if Washington were to completely sever ties with Taiwan because, despite decades of sustained engagement, the bilateral military dialogue remains
highly constrained and vulnerable to disruption from external shocks. The most important impediment to better SinoUS defence ties has been the underlying contentious nature of their relationship in general. This has been most apparent over Taiwan, but reflects deeper differences over power and values. As the leaders of the weaker power, Chinese
policymakers also fear that excessive transparency could provide the Pentagon with insights into their continuing military vulnerabilities and, influenced by a military tradition that emphasizes deception, many Chinese strategists see opaqueness as helping deter opponents by complicating their defence planning. Domestic politics also play a role, as leaders hesitate to appear weak in defending their country’s national interests. But arguably the main obstacle to achieving a ‘sustained and reliable’ Sino-US military relationship has been the underlying climate of security tension between the two countries. At the root of this is the simple fact that China’s increasing military power is
enabling Chinese policymakers to more directly challenge US military policies that Beijing has long opposed.
This resistance has become evident in the repeated confrontations between the two navies in the seas off China, most notably last year’s clash over The Impeccable.
1) Aerospace Turn
and local governments US$593 million.6 percent. it would positively contribute to the U. said the council’s president Rupert Hammond-Chambers.S. Hammond-Chambers argued. sold Taiwan F-16 C/D fighter jets.He estimated F-16 sales could help the U. while stimulating the economy in states such as Ohio and Florida where unemployment rates have reached 8.The analysis forecast that the aerospace industries in California. and that the aerospace industry in 50 states would be affected.php?id=1745240]
More than one million jobs in the aerospace industry are at risk as U.7 billion worth of businesses and help keep 16.S.com. Hammond-Chambers said.6 percent-10. federal government could receive tax revenues of up to US$768 million from the arms sales. job market and economy.
CAREER DEFENSE HEG TURN CHINA’S RISING MILITARY DETRACTS FROM US HEGEMONY AND PLACES THE REGION ON EDGE.000 jobs in the aerospace industry. citing an economic
analysis published Monday by the Aerospace Industries Association.UPenn 11/12 Pettyjohn
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F-16 SALES TO TAIWAN CRITICAL TO US AEROSPACE INDUSTRY.taiwannews. generate US$8.S. defense spending cuts would approach US$1 trillion over the next 10 years.tw/etn/news_content. Virginia and Texas would be the hardest hit by the steep defense budget cuts.S.The U. Taiwanese News (staff writer).If the U.
. 31 October 2011 [“F-16 sales to Taiwan could save US Aerospace industry”
pushing them out further offshore. and it is building its own stealth fighter aircraft along with advanced carrier-based aircraft built from Russian designs. 05 September 2011 [“Taiwan answers Chinese carrier threat”
http://www. China has recently floated its first aircraft carrier and is set to operate a carrier fleet.bbc.All of these can target US bases. 10 August 2011 [“China’s first Aircraft Carrier starts sea trials” http://www. China is focusing on weapons designed to blunt US military power. AND OUR EAST ASIAN ALLIANCES (CAN ALSO BE USED AS A SECOND LINK TO THE JAPAN DA)
. US ships and US carriers in Asia. analysts say. analysts say.securitydefenceagenda.
TAIWAN IS KEY TO CONTAINING CHINA AND MAINTAINING US HEG.aspx]
The Taiwanese navy has equipped its warships with a new missile type able to reach supersonic speed. making Tawain significantly more vulnerable to attack from its Peoples Liberation Army (PLA). But in its rapid expansion. designed to sink aircraft carriers while they are manoeuvring at sea up to 1.co.The PLA has invested heavily in submarines.Taiwan.
APPLY OUR #2. US ARMS SALES CRITICAL TO PROTECTING TAIWANESE SOVERGNTY.UPenn 11/12 Pettyjohn
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BBC (staff writer). The deployment has been confirmed as a response to the continuing Chinese naval build up in the region.org/Contentnavigation/Library/Libraryoverview/tabid/1299/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/2530/Taiwananswers-Chinese-carrier-threat. The anti-ship missile has been developed in Taiwan and will be deployed in several frigates and patrol boats. They will make it much more dangerous for US carrier fleets to operate close to China's coast.uk/news/worldasia-pacific-14470882]
China's military is generally believed to be 20 years behind America's in its development. The € 280m project will include an unknown number of the new missile type. Security and Defense Agenda.500km (930 miles) offshore. It is believed to be close to deploying the world's first "carrier-killer" ballistic missile. authorities
announced. Lin Yu-fang of the ruling Kuomintang party told the press on 8 May. News Asia-Pacific. Korea and Japan that look to the US for their security may start to question how much America can really protect them in future.0. which can reach speeds at up to mach 2.
a coherent and consistent message of
U. policy interests in East Asia have been articulated by various Department of State officials. policy toward the ultimate issue of armed intervention on behalf of Taiwan. and prosperous China. but does not clearly resolve the ambiguity of U. 1992.S.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc? AD=ADA448769&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc. Army War Colege “East Asia Summit Steps Toward Community to Prevent Great Power Hegemony and Implications for U. and include: (1) promotion of democracy and human rights. Korea. and expresses appreciation for assistance provided by Singapore and New Zealand in the war against terrorism. (5) a peaceful and prosperous partnership with China. 1995.S.dtic.12 reiterates the importance of U.7 thereby inhibiting intraregional development and cooperation. peaceful.13 Specific U. The East Asia Strategy Reports were
produced in 1990.”11 The NSS also recognizes Indonesia for taking courageous steps to create a democracy and respect for the rule of law. and 1998.S.S. but does mention China in the context of a “great power” and welcomes the emergence of a “strong. Peterson. The end of the Cold War led Washington to reassess its vision and security strategy for East Asia. 15 March 2006 (United States Marine Corps Reserve.
Japan. political and economic freedom.pdf) The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 affirms the commitment of the United States to a peaceful settlement of the future of Taiwan and allows provision of
weapons for Taiwan’s self-defense. policy interests in East Asia. These policy goals are derived from the 2002 National Security Strategy of the United States. These goals fully support the President’s vision articulated in the 2002 National Security Strategy of the United States. U. alliances with Australia.S. (6) non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. From a broad
perspective. but members of the Department of State have set forth. Bush. The NSS provides little specific guidance on Asia-Pacific affairs. Policy” http://www. and (8) environmental preservation and disease prevention. Thailand.8 It
appears that the notion of an East Asian Community is driven in part by a desire to establish a security regime that is not dictated by the great powers. (7) assistance fighting international crime and drug trafficking.
Implicit in these interests are the peaceful reunification of Korea and the peaceful resolution of the status of Taiwan
MISSILE DEFENSE TURN MISSILE DEFENSE REPRESENTS A CRUCIAL COMPONENT OF ARMS SALES TO TAIWAN.UPenn 11/12 Pettyjohn
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A) US Hegemony and strong alliances in East Asia solves a laundry list of impacts
Lieutenant Colonel Scott T. and a balance of power that favors human freedom. (3) peace and regional stability. the President has expressed in the National Security Strategy (NSS)10 a commitment to human rights. in testimony before Congressional committees and speeches before interested parties.9 No similar report has been issued by the administration of President George W. (4) rejection of radical Islam and assistance in combating terrorism. (2) economic growth and prosperity. and the Philippines. selfdetermination.
These alliances have had the practical effect of subjecting actions and relationships of the states in the region to the wishes and policies of the great powers.S.
it said. (Walter Slocombe.pdf]
The most likely and most dangerous threat comes from a single or limited missile launch. The first is an accidental launch. prompting Taipei to seek more advanced defence weaponry.
MISSILE DEFENSE IS KEY TO PREVENT NUCLEAR THREATS FROM ROGUE STATES THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR WAR.000warhead salvo by the Soviet Union still allowed for the detonation of 100 nuclear bombs in American cities—and both we and the Soviets had enough missiles to make such an attack plausible. America and the world could only sit back and watch.But China still considers Taiwan to be territory awaiting reunification. hoping that a potentially world-destroying conflict did not spin out of control.UPenn 11/12 Pettyjohn
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Asia One News (staff writer). But if a single missile were launched out of the blue from the deep with the Asian landmass today. for whatever reason. halts America’s banking and commerce and reduces the battlefield for America’s military to third world status—it might provide for the very survival of our way of life. the paper said. by definition undeterrable.ndu. but no submarines or
new fighter aircraft. 2011 [“Toward a Theory of Spacepower” http://www. Richard Nelson). or Sky Bow. the system will also include locally produced tactical ballistic missiles evolved from existing missiles known as "Tienkung". critics pointed out that even if a 99percent-reliable defense from space could be achieved. And if a US space defense could intercept a single Scud missilt launch by terrorists froma ship near America’s coasts before it detonated a nuclear warhead 100 miles up – creating an electromagnetic pulse that shuts down America’s powergrid.
If Iran should launch a missile ar Israel. Professor of Military Studies at USAF) and Henry Cooper (former DoD deputy executive).html]
A long-range early warning radar system. or in a preemptory strike Israwl should attempt the reverse. and from sources that are unlikely to be either rational or predictable. June 2003
[“Missile Defense in Asia” http://www. The Atlantic Council of the United States. and watch.pdf]
. Black Hawk helicopters. More likely than an accidental launch is the intentional launch of one or a few missiles. by force if necessary.
Everett Dolman (Phd. would today hit its target is almost incomprehensible. Michael Carns. The defence ministry declined to comment on the report. While the Patriot III and radars are USmade. will allow the military to detect and track incoming ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. either by a nonstate actor (a terrorist or "rogue boat captain" as the scenario was described in the early 1980s) or a rogue state attempting to maximize damage as a prelude to broader conflict. priced at about 40 billion Taiwan dollars.asiaone. Jacques Gansler.edu/press/lib/pdf/spacepower/spacepower. and equipment for Taiwan's F-16 fighter jets. Slocombe et al.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/2003-06-Missile_Defense_in_Asia.Military experts estimate the People's Liberation Army currently has more than 1.com/News/Latest
%2BNews/Asia/Story/A1Story20100906-235807.acus. a 10.Ties between Taiwan and its giant neighbour have improved markedly since President Ma Ying-jeou of the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang took office in Taipei in 2008.TAIWAN CAN BE CONFIDENT IN ITS DEFENSIVE APPROACH. a threat we avoided making protections against
due to the potentially destabilizing effect on the precarious Cold War balance. That an accidental launch. largely from the United States. When President Reagan announced his desire for a missile shield in 1983. This is especially likely in the underdeveloped theories pertaining to deterring third-party states. a space-based missile defense system with 99-percent reliability would be a godsend.
TAIWANESE MISSILE DEFENSE PROVIDES IMPORTANT PSYCHOLOGICAL SECURITY BEENFITS. 06 September 2010 [“Taiwan’s missile defense shield ready next year” http://news. The United States can do nothing today to prevent India from launching a nuclear attack against Pakistan (or vice versa) except threaten retaliation.Washington announced in January a weapons package for Taiwan that includes Patriot missiles.600 missiles aimed at the island.
but takes a more political and psychological approach. While it may well be true that China would object vigorously. a limited defense would deny the PRC the luxury of absolute confidence in the success of its attack – and at a minimum require a greater commitment. In Taiwan there is now a debate between a “shield versus a sword.
WITHOUT STRONG DEFENSE CAPABILITIES TAIWAN WILL DEVELOP AND OFFENSIVE NUCLEAR ARSENAL. even if significantly limited in military capability would be highly useful. if for no other reason than to deter threats from the PRC. specifically a commitment to building some measure of defense. a Taiwanese official described to the late Gerald Segal of London’s International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS).”
Taiwan wanted to be seen as being capable of a “nuclear breakout” in as short a time as six weeks. in military and strategic terms. presumably from Russian so-called “loose nukes” and that Taiwan was enhancing ties with South Africa and Israel. the threat requires some direct response by the ROC government and military.
EAST ASIAN NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION WILL LEAD TO NUCLEAR WAR
Joseph Cerincione (Director of the Non-Proliferation Project). this group argues. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Foreign Policy. pressure and monitoring of Taiwan’s fissile materials. systems.S. Proquest]
The blocks would fall quickest and hardest in Asia. a large percentage of the population (claimed to be 80 percent) reportedly favors Taiwan acquiring missile defenses. and Taiwan (as well as the United States) will be in a better position to overcome those objections when what is at issue is ballistic missile defense. There would be important psychological and morale benefits of having some defense – or even the prospect of some defense in the reasonably near future – rather than none at all. about 2 and a half years ago. military sales to Taiwan. If a nuclear breakout takes place in Asia. Indeed. according to this school of thought. with all the concomitant potential for increasing the political costs to the PRC and the chance of U. Publicly available information suggests at least two episodes in Taiwan’s recent history where it seemed to be moving towards a nuclear weapons capability. another place with nuclear questions of its own. A defense.” It is clear that the missile build-up by China across the Taiwan Straits has helped to push this debate forward. It begins with the proposition that the missile threat is a very serious psychological threat to Taiwan and its population because it seems to afford Beijing a capability to bypass Taiwan’s defenses altogether. The PRC opposes all significant
U. Don Berlin (Chief Researcher and Professor for International Relations respectively). than it might be in the case of other.apcss. where proliferation pressures are already building more quickly than anywhere else in the world. Satu Limaye and Dr. Even as recently as April 2000 a press report suggested that Taiwan had acquired at least two nuclear devices. 22 April 2000 [“Nuclear Weapons Challenges in Asia” http://www.html] In between northeast Asia and southeast Asia is of course Taiwan. Reportedly. 2000 [“The Asian nuclear reaction chain” Issue 118. Therefore. intervention. then the international arms
.org/Publications/Nuclear%20Weapons %20Challenges%20in%20Asia.S. less clearly defensive. Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies. a purely protective system. be a decisive objection. Moreover.S. that cannot. Sping.
Dr. Taiwan’s nuclear policy as being one of “intense ambiguity. These attempts were halted due to intense U.UPenn 11/12 Pettyjohn
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The contrasting view does not dispute the basic technical and military analysis.
India and Pakistan shoot across borders while running a slow-motion nuclear arms race. one nation's actions can trigger reactions throughout the region.
. Consider what is already happening: North Korea continues to play guessing games with its nuclear and missile programs. the first combat use of a nuclear weapon since 1945. the others are capable of constructing them.UPenn 11/12 Pettyjohn
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control agreements that have been painstakingly negotiated over the past 40 years will crumble. Like neutrons firing from a split atom. These nations form an interlocking Asian nuclear reaction chain that vibrates dangerously with each new development. perhaps. Moreover. the
United Statescould find itself embroiled in its fourth war on the Asian continent in six decades--a costly rebuke to those who seek the safety of Fortress America by hiding behind national missile defenses. South Korea wants its own missiles to match Pyongyang's. Five of these states have nuclear weapons. and Russia-whose Far East nuclear deployments alone make it the largest Asian nuclear power-struggles to maintain territorial coherence. bringingregional and global economic and political instability and. China modernizes its nuclear arsenal amid tensions with Taiwan and the United States. If the frequency and intensity of this reaction cycle increase. stimulate additional actions. Japan's vice defense minister is forced to resign after extolling the benefits of nuclear weapons. critical decisions taken by any one of these governments could cascade into the second great wave of nuclear-weapon proliferation. which in turn.