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Stage Birth rate Why?

1 High (35/1000) + Agrarian society Need for family labour in largely labour intensive farms with low level of technology (still apply?) Children = farmhands (two hands, one mouth) + Compensation effect/ survival theory With high death rates and short lifespan (X<35), there is a prevailing notion to compensate for the death of other children. + Social cultural mindset Require males to light the funeral pyres of their fathers (India) Male heir to carry on the family name Children = form of insurance for retirement + Ignorance/ low level of acceptance towards contraception Despite efforts by UN to spread the use of contraception Religious issue + Lack of education (due to inaccessibility) Lack knowledge on family planning

2 Roughly similar to stage 1 + Unlike death-rates, birth rates are determined by mindset rather than the level of advancements in technology. + Having children was and still is a personal decision that is guided by a complex set of socio-economic circumstances. + Although the agrarian mindset of bearing children for the sake of increasing labour supply has eroded due to the change in the form of income source, the social cultural mindset still pretty much prevails. + Government has yet seen the need for family planning. + Early marriages are still a norm.

3 Falling to (20/1000) Increasing affluence and industrialisation + socialcultural changes brought high BR to levels that of DR Under the social and economic changes in the system, children are increasingly seen as a liability rather than an asset. This is also due to an increasingly diversifying economy compounded with the switch to a knowledge based, innovation driven economy. Such raises the cost of educating a child as the society demands workers equipped with more developed and varied skills. An undeveloped scholarship system would increase such a burden on the parents. (China) sees a booming population as a threat to the standard of living, compelled to implement policies that restricts population growth.

4 Below (16/1000) Emancipation and the changing roles of women: career-minded, liberalised and educated. Society edges towards equality between man and woman. + No longer a subordinate to the husband/ mother-in-law. + Not under their command to give birth/ adhere to the social cultural mindset which they now deem outdated after being immersed in a liberalised and open society Most societies fail to provide a favourable environment for procreation. + (Singapore) Men dont get childcare benefits as much as woman does women, having to juggle both work and child-rearing, feel the strain which could translate to lower fertility rates. High accessibility and generally more opened to various forms of family planning. E.g. contraception, ultrasound scans and abortion

Death rate Why?

+ Longer fertility span due to earlier marriages - Girls marry as young as 16. Compared to those married at their 30s, they have a longer fertility span High (35/1000) + Low level of hygiene, As a result, diseases become more communicable + Lack of medical technological advancements to provide proper healthcare + A more superstitious society in general, opting to visit a witch doctor rather than a certified one Curable diseases (e.g. diarrhea) when denied of proper medical attention leads to large number of preventable deaths up to millions per year.

Lower than stage 1 about 2035/1000 Advent of Industrial Revolution

Lower than stage 2 (15/1000) Advancements in technologies, that helped lengthened the lifespan of a person, becomes more rapid.

+ Advancements in medical and healthcare field (Europe) Development of cures to once untreatable diseases Innovation in transportation Better knowledge on how to also helps in making the upkeep a healthy body benefiting technologies more accessible. + Innovation in agricultural production methods Together, they push DRs lower. High yields Nutritious meal becomes more affordable due to economies of scale + A society more inclined to scientific methods of cure rather than religious ones Diseases get the right medical attention + (Else where) importation of these technologies (esp. after WW2)

Might be higher than birth rate and stage 3s Ageing population higher percentage of population above 65 means the propensity of deaths to occur is high. E.g. Italy DR 10.2/1000 BR 9/1000 IN FACT higher DR than Indonesias 6/1000 + Advanced healthcare Good proportion of medical amenities (hospitals, ambulance, clinics, nursing homes, retiree homes) as well as personnel (doctors and nurses) to patient Good healthcare coverage/ subsidies by government affordability of health check-ups, which leads to increased regularity and decreased chances of illness left unattended + Advance medicine and vaccines Wealthy governments ability to afford and acquire vaccines easily + More informed about their wellbeing

Natural increase


Highest among the stages *(Lag period between plummeting DRs and plummeting BRs led to rapid population explosion) The least developed countries falls into this category

Gradually in decline

Minimal bordering negative


Today, there are virtually no e.g. of countries which belongs to this state. Even the least developed countries like that Sub-Saharan countries like Rwanda and Ethiopia has seen declining death rates credited to greater medical accessibility and healthcare. However, there might still be incidences of high birth rates and death rates approximating this stage in the remote and rural regions/ villages in those countries (Rwanda) Case study: Nihon

Japans fertility rate stands at 1.39 in 2010, far below the replacement rate of 2.1. This has significant impact on Japans competitiveness in the global economy. If not efficiently and effectively remedied, Japan would eventually head towards rapid declination, as experts warn. Japans low birth rate compounded with its almost zero immigration policy would severely shrink its workforce, leading to a decline in production capacity. Thereafter, Japan would lose out in economic competiveness together with its global presence. Further, a burgeoning aged population would shift priorities and funds towards sectors such as elderly care, reducing funds in sectors which Japans economy lifeline hangs on. On top of that, a reduced workforce equates to reduced human resources as well as tax money for the execution of plans and policies. With tightened budget, social security system might suffer resulting in greater disparity in living standards. Overall, the quality and standard of the government and the society will suffer altogether.

In Japan, too much focus has been placed on distributing cash to households and not enough on providing a supportive environment for working mothers. The latter has got more to do with declining birth rates, as experts point out. In Japan, mothers have to work as most families survive on a dual-income. As such, if Japan were to effectively solve the woes of a working mother, it would mean tackling low fertility rates at a large scale. Survey (PSCL) has pointed towards the trend that the availability of maternity leave from employment generates a significant increase in married womans fertility rate. Yet, provision of maternity leaves only gets half the job done, setting up enough childcare centres is as important. Since life-long maternity leave is cost ineffective, childcare centres are needed to lessen the burden of working mothers once their maternity leave ends. However, Japanese government has not set up enough child-care facilities, with more than 25 thousand children still on the waiting list last year. France Frances fertility rate stands at 2.01 in 2010, very close to the replacement rate and amongst the highest in developed countries. It has consistently worked its way up since its great dip in the 1990s. This could be credited to Frances effort in creating a pro-family environment. Here are some policies that has made child rearing a non-burdensome and enjoyable experience in France. + Maternity leave is a definite + The most important of which is a calibrated income tax rate, which means that the more children you have, the less you pay + Monthly allowance, for families with kids, which rises as the kids grow + Reduced rates on trains fare and free entrance to swimming pools and other amenities + Allowance to fund extra-curricular arts and sports + Tax reduction for home help which makes its easier for mums to work + An abundance of pre-schools and nursery schools + Highly subsidized education In addition, government figures show that France has one of Europes highest rates of females in the workforce. This proves that with the right policies, work and babies can go hand in hand.