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WHO KILLED ZINJANTHROPUS?

WHAT KILLED ZINJANTHROPUS?

HOW DID ZINJANTHROPUS DIE?

HOW DID ZINJANTHROPUS LIVE?

AMENITIES OF LIFE

SAMENESS

BIGGEST CHALLENGE TO OUR SURVIVAL?

SAMENESS

HOW DO WE LIVE NOW?

TYPICAL TANZANIAN

Millions 0.5 1 2 3 1.5 2.5 3.5 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+ Male Population 0

Millions 0.5 1 2 3 1.5 2.5 3.5 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+ Female Population Male Population 0

Millions 0.5 1 2 3 1.5 2.5 3.5 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+ Female Population Male Population 0

Zawadia TYPICAL Tanzanian

Doesnt have a secondary education Lives in a mud house Fetches water from a dugout well Uses pit latrine Has no mobile phone Walks to most places Rarely eats meat or fish

Zawadi was born to a family of seven people


36

24 17.5 19 19.5

Household size First intercourse

Married

Husband age

First child

Last child

First intercourse at the age of 17.5 years


36

24 17.5 19 19.5

Household size First intercourse

Married

Husband age

First child

Last child

Marries at the age of 19 years


36

24 17.5 19 19.5

Household size First intercourse

Married

Husband age

First child

Last child

to a man 5 years older than her


36

24 17.5 19 19.5

Household size First intercourse

Married

Husband age

First child

Last child

First child at the age of 19.5 years


36

24 17.5 19 19.5

Household size First intercourse

Married

Husband age

First child

Last child

and last child at the age of 36 years old


36

24 17.5 19 19.5

Household size First intercourse

Married

Husband age

First child

Last child

HOW DO WE LIVE?

Assured of university education Lives in a 4-bedroom house, with pipe water and sewer system Drinks bottled water Drives to most places Has a 78% chance of employment in a nonfarm job Has more than one mobile phone Regularly eats meat and fish

Vanessa was born in a family of five people


Zawadi Vanessa 23.2 17.518.5 19 24 26.2 23.5 19.5 36 32

Household size First intercourse

Married

Husband age

First child

Last child

First intercourse at the age of 18.5 years


36 32 26.2 23.5 19.5

23.2 17.518.5 19

24

Household size First intercourse

Married

Husband age

First child

Last child

Marries at the age of 23.2 years


36 32 26.2 23.5 19.5

23.2 17.518.5 19

24

Household size First intercourse

Married

Husband age

First child

Last child

to a man three years older than her


36 32 26.2 23.5 19.5

23.2 17.518.5 19

24

Household size First intercourse

Married

Husband age

First child

Last child

First child at the age of 23.5 years old


36 32 26.2 23.5 19.5

23.2 17.518.5 19

24

Household size First intercourse

Married

Husband age

First child

Last child

and last child at the age 32 years old


36 32 26.2 23.5 19.5

23.2 17.518.5 19

24

Household size First intercourse

Married

Husband age

First child

Last child

Both get married already pregnant


5.4 Months

3 Months

Zawadi

Vanessa

Vanessa will have fewer kids than she desires, Zawadi more kids than she desires
Zawadi Vanessa
5.5 4.7 3.7 3

Preferred number of children

Actual number of children had

Population increasingly getting younger

Number of poor increasing


Poverty headcount ratio based on $2 and $1.25 a day (PPP)
$2 a day (PPP) Millions 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 1992 2000 2007 25 20 33 30 28 $1.25 a day (PPP) 36

The rich get richer, everyone else get poorer


Change of income share between 1992 and 2007
3.22

Lowest 20% -0.63

Second 20% -1.07

Third 20% -0.99

Fourth 20% -0.53

Highest 20%

Economy growing, but consumption erratic


GDP per capita growth (annual %) 15 ConsumpKon per capita growth (annual %)

10

1992

1993

1995

1996

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2005

1994

1997

1998

2004

2006

-5

-10

2007

SAMENESS

IS IT POSSIBLE?

Need to harvest almost 15% of all available renewable water to satisfy domestic middle income demand every year
Available renewable water and usage (trillion litres/year) Water Stress in Tanzania (percent of population affected) 72 50
Current harvest capacity

Available water

96.75

3.87

31

Required consuption

14.51
2000 2050 (Pop growth only) 2050 (Pop growth + climate change)

Zawadis income need to grow 6x


Needed Per Capita Income Growth
$3000

$530

Current

Middle income

Annual protein consumption equivalent to 7m cows, or 56pct of currently available cow population

Only 12.5m cows available today

7m cows will be needed every year

Middle Income consumption

or equivalent to 900 million chicken, 26x current chicken consumption


900m

35m Current consumption Required for middle income consumption

Power consumption increases 28x


Electricity consumption (billion kWh)
120.0

Installed Capacity (MW)


15000

4.3 Current consumption Middle income consumption

1100 Current installed Required capacity capacity

Fuel consumption to increase 19x, from current 14m to 260m barrels per year
Fuel import bill 4x amount spent on all imports 2010 and 1.3x 2010 GDP (billion USD)
28.8 23.1

7.1 3.6

Official reserves 2010 (FX & Gold)

Overall import bill 2010

GDP 2010 (current US$)

Fuel import bill at middle income

IS IT SUSTAINABLE?

WILL CLIQUE OF CONSUMERISM KILL HOMO SAPIENS?

Hadzabe eat better than average Tanzanian


2140 2100

2010

Recommended

Hadzabe

Tanzania

ZINJANTHROPUS LIVED BETTER THAN HOMO SAPIENS?