REPUBUC OF KENYA

MINISTRY OF WATER AND IRRIGATION
ATHI WATER SERVICES BOARD (AWSB)

FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS

AWSB Water Sources Options Review Report

aegisbceom Irltern;ltlor la/

+mm

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MANGAT,l.B.PAT€t

8 PARTNERS

AWSB

Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat, I.B. Patel & Partners

Table of Contents

Table of Contents
Executive Summary ......................................................................................1
1 2 Introduction ...........................................................................................1 Present Situation and Future Sources for Nairobi Water Supply ......2
2.1 Available Surface Water Sources .................................................................. 2 2.2 Future Water Sources .................................................................................... 2
2.2.1 Surface Water Sources ....................................................................................2 2.2.2 Groundwater ....................................................................................................2 2.2.3 Other Water Sources........................................................................................4

2.3 Existing Production Systems ......................................................................... 4

3 4

Population and Water Demand Projections ........................................5 Surface Water Assessment ..................................................................9
4.1 Background Reports on Hydrology ................................................................ 9 4.2 Responsibility for Measurement of Water Resources ................................... 9 4.3 Water Resources Data Obtained for the Study ............................................. 9 4.4 Rainfall Analysis ........................................................................................... 10 4.5 The Eastern Aberdare Rivers – Sustainable Surface Water Sources ......... 10 4.6 Preliminary River Flow Data Analysis .......................................................... 10 4.7 Separate Hydrological Study of Sasumua and Negthu System .................. 11 4.8 “Confirmation” of Hydrology ......................................................................... 11 4.9 WRMA River Abstraction Data .................................................................... 12 4.10 WRMA Compensation Flow Release Rules ...................................... 12 4.11 Conclusion on Yields.......................................................................... 12 4.12 Thika Dam Yields ............................................................................... 13 4.13 River Yields and Catchment Management ........................................ 13 4.14 Further Work and Climate Change Modelling .................................... 14

AWSB

5 6

Water Resources Development Strategy ........................................... 14 Building Development Scenarios ....................................................... 16
6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 Proposed Scenarios..................................................................................... 16 Summary Water Balance for Contemplated Scenarios ............................... 18 Scenarios Components................................................................................ 21 Preliminary Design, Costing and Implementation Schedule for Selected Scenarios ..................................................................................................... 21 6.5 Comparison of Contemplated Scenarios against the Development Strategy Objectives ...................................................................................... 21

7

Least Cost Analysis ............................................................................ 22
7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 Comparison of Investment Scenarios .......................................................... 22 Inclusion of Opportunity Costs of Hydropower ............................................ 23 Inclusion of Transfer Tunnel from Athi River to Thika River ........................ 23 Sensitivity on Discount Factor...................................................................... 23 No Project Option ......................................................................................... 24 Environmental Flows.................................................................................... 24 Upstream Impacts ........................................................................................ 24 Impacts on Ecosystem ................................................................................. 24 Environmental Monitoring Plan .................................................................... 25

8

Environmental Impacts ....................................................................... 24
8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5

9

Multi-Criteria Analysis......................................................................... 26
9.1 Principles...................................................................................................... 26 9.2 Weighting of Criteria .................................................................................... 27 9.3 First Step of the Analysis: Mandatory Criteria on Water Demand Coverage and Security on Water Source .................................................... 28
9.3.1 Meeting Water Demand Projections up to 2035: ............................................28

FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS

Page ii Version 02

................ 1-1 Objectives of the Assignment .............................2 Middle Supply Area .................. 2-1 1 Present Water Sources . I..................2..............................................5... 2-13 3........................................................ 2-15 3....................................................3 Lower Supply Area ................ 1-2 3....................2-11 2................................ 1-7 Water Services Boards (WSB) ...............................3 Study Outputs ..............2...2...................1 Upper Supply Area .....2 Security and Reliability of Water Supply...........................................Present Water Sources ............. 2-18 3................. 2-6 Others .......................1 Third Nairobi Water Supply Project ..3 1............................................... 1-1 Content of the Water Sources Option Review Report ..........................................3 4...............................3...........5 Third Step ...............................................................2 Simulation of the System Operation ...1 4................ 1-2 th 3....................... 2-12 3 Previous and On-going Studies .......................1 Long-term Development Plan (Regional Studies) ..... 2-2 1.....7 4...........3................. 2-16 3......................................... June 2011) .......................................................................4........ 2-13 3....... 30 Chapter 1 ..... 2-9 1.................................2 Nairobi Water and Sewerage Emergency Physical Investments Project ............................... 29 9.......2.....................................................................................................Multicriteria Analysis on Other Criterias .....................................1 1........................ 2-18 3........................................ 2-9 1............ 2-16 3....................4............1 Terms of Reference ....Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat............................8 Key Legislation and Policies ......3..3 Storages and Main Distribution Zoning ............. 2-5 Thika – Ngethu – Gigiri System ........ 1-3 3...................................2 Northern Collector Scheme ..... 1-1 1 2 3 General...5 4...................................................................... 1-5 Water Resources Management Authority (WRMA) .............................................. 2-11 2 On-going Works .................4 4.......... 1-3 4 Water Sector Organisation .................................................................3..........5 Kikuyu Springs System ............2 Sasumua Ngethu Systems (Components 1 and 2) ....................................................................................3 Hydrological Study and Water Management for the Ngethu – Sasumua System (BRLi/Seureca Draft Report..29 9.........3......................2 Clarification Issued on 11 January 2010 .......................................................2 1..................... 2-2 Ruiru – Kabete System ................................................1 Existing Water Production Systems....................................................... 1-6 Water Services Trust Fund (WSTF) .......................................................2 4....... 2-11 1..............28 9...... 2-9 AWSB 1............................. 1-5 Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI) .......7 Advantages of Scenario 2 ............................................... 2-1 1.....................................................................................................................2-13 3...........................................................2.........................B......3.................................................................... 2-16 3........................................ 2-19 Chapter 3 ........2 Reports Related to Projects Planned by Tana Water Services Board ..............................Study Area....1 Yield Analysis ..............4 Second Step: Least Cost analysis............. 2-2 1..................... 2-2 Sasumua – Kabete System ............ 3-1 FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page iii Version 02 ............................. 1-7 Athi Water Services Board (AWSB).................................................................................................... 30 9...................... Land Use...............................2 Production and Transmission Systems ...................................................................................Introduction .......................... 1-5 Water Services Regulatory Board (WASREB) ..............................................................1 Criterias Considered.......... 1-6 Water Appeals Board .................................................................................................. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends ......1............................................................ .. 2-12 2...6 Results of the Analysis...1 Reports related to Groundwater .........6 4............ 1-5 4.............4 1...... 1-7 Chapter 2 ....................................... 2-13 3............. 29 9. Patel & Partners Table of Contents 9..............................1 Mwagu – Ngethu – Gigiri System Rehabilitation Works Schedule ...............................................1................................4 Other Study Reports ............

.................................4 Population Growth ....................... 3-16 Population Distribution in Nairobi City.......3 High and Low Growth Multi Centric Development Scenario ....5 Main Economic Activities –Now and Into the Future ........................................8.........2............2 Topography and Drainage..........8.............................10 Machakos –Mlolongo-Isinya-Kitengela-Ngong Corridor Zoning Plans .....................................3.......... 3-25 3... 3-27 Kikuyu ................................................7...............................................................................................3 3...................3 The 1992 Hill Area Zoning Plan ........................................2 3........................................................... 3-21 Land Use Distribution in the Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR) ... 3-9 Transport .................. 3-26 3.................... 3-14 3....3..............................1 Geology........ 3-14 3................................................................. Topography.. 3-14 3....................................................................................1 3........................................................................B....................................9............................... Socio Economic and Demographic Trends . 3-15 3...........................1 Future Population Patterns-2035 ...................................... 3-16 3..........................................7................................................................................................................................................. 3-13 3.. 3-14 3.. Drainage And Climate ....................3...1 Depressed Population & Demographic Indicators .................. 3-14 3............5 3...................... ...... 3-28 Kajiado ........................................ 3-10 Residential .....9..................... 3-5 2................ 3-12 Environmental Status ...................................3 The Nairobi Metropolitan Region Growth Strategies ...9.............3................................. 3-28 Mavoko.... 3-11 Industrial....... 3-6 2..................................................................................................................... 3-27 Ruiru.............2...................... 3-16 Population Density In Nairobi Metropolitan Region ............................................... 3-11 Commercial .....4 Population in Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR) ...........4 3......3..............3 3...........7 The Nairobi We Want Initiation ....................................9............................4 3..........................2.....2 3.....................................................................5...........................2.........10.................2............9 Satellite Towns in Nairobi Metropolitan Region ............5.....1 3....3........................... 3-29 3........7....................................2... 3-2 2............... Patel & Partners Table of Contents 1 2 Study Area Presentation ......................... 3-22 Land Use Analysis in the Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR) ..............................2 Water Sources in the Project Area ...2 3.........................................................................................................................7........................... 3-25 3..........................9...........................6 3..........2 The 1973 NRM Growth Strategy .......4 3............ 3-14 3............................................................................. 3-26 3........ 3-20 Employment ..................................7.................................5........................................9 The Redevelopment of the Eastlands ... 3-16 Factors Affecting Population Growth in Nairobi .....3..... 3-14 3.... 3-14 3.........1 Nairobi City Boundary ........................................ 3-26 Kiambu ......... 3-29 FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page iv Version 02 .8 3.............. 3-15 3.8......................... 3-27 Karuri............................................................8 Land Use ...............................1................ 3-17 AWSB 3..................... 3-27 Machakos .....1 Geology ............................. 3-1 Nairobi and Satellite Towns ..................... I........................4 The 1998 Karen-Langata Structure Plan .......3. 3-13 3................................................................................9...................................................................................6 Education and Health Facilities ...5.........9................ 3-18 3..........10 Challenges Facing Nairobi Metropolitan Region ................9..................................... 3-20 3.......................3..............9 Thika ...........................7 3.....2........6 The 2006 Local Physical Development Plan for Zone 3............................................ 3-7 3......... 3-11 Social Amenities .................. 3-5 2...1 3...................................1 The 1948 Nairobi Master Plan ...... 3-24 3................... 3-15 3............ 3-11 Airport Overlay ..........................3 Climate .............2 3....2 Nairobi City ..........7 Development Potential ................3................9.................... 3-7 3 Land Use......... 3-12 3................................................7 3.......................................................3... 3-20 District Centers .............................5 Population Dynamics in Nairobi City....6 3.......................11 Kikuyu-Kiambu-Ruiru-Thika Corridor Zoning Plans ...8 The 2006 Nairobi Metropolitan Transport Master Plan ............. 4 &5 .................................... 3-9 3..3 3.......... 3-22 3..........8 Population Size and Growth in Metropolitan Regions ........................... 3-8 3.5 3..............3 3.............................. 3-28 3................................................................5 The 2006 Karen Langata Local Physical Development Plan........................ ...... 3-27 Limuru ..........1 3....... 3-5 2...................................................2 High and Low Growth Nairobi Centric Development Scenario .......................2....................................Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat............1.................................1.........................................................

......3. 4-4 2................................. 3-29 3............... 4-2 1.10.....................2 2.. ......................................8 Ineffective Legal & Government Institutions .................1 Coverage Area / Individual Connections .........3 2.............3 Depressed Economic Performance and Employment ........................Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat............................... 4-1 1 Review of Existing Reports .........................................................................3....... 4-3 1...........10.......................5 Poor Community and Social Services ....................... 4-4 Domestic Water Demand ............................................................................. 4-1 1...........3 Water Demand Forecast in Previous Studies ................3 Water Demand Forecast for Nairobi and Satellites Towns.........3 Water Demand Forecast .......................................................................... 3-30 3.............Water Demand Forecast .....................................................................3...... I.......................4 Water Demand Forecast in Water Sources Region .....3 Water Supply and Sewerage Services Demand Forecast for Nairobi City – Uniconsult Kenya (March 2007) & Nairobi Water and Sewerage Institutional Restructuring Project............... 4-8 3.......7 Environmental Pollution................................. etc....... .............................................................10.........................................................3.......................................2 Nairobi Water and Sewerage Emergency Physical Investments Project........ 4-9 3............................ Diagnostic of the Current Situation – Sogreah / Cape Consult January 2005................ 3-30 3............................................ Patel & Partners Table of Contents 3..............................10....................... 4-8 AWSB 3 Water Demand Forecast .......................................4 Inadequate Infrastructure & Utilities .. Hydraulic Network Modelling – Seureca / Cas Consulting Engineers (August 2007) ...... 4-6 Commercial Water Demand.. 4-10 3.............................2 Population Projections and Distribution Based on Income Levels ............... 4-13 3............................5 General ........................................ 4-1 1...... 3-29 3....................9 Way Forward for Metropolitan Region ................................. 4-7 Industrial Water Demand .................... Industrial....2 Inadequate Housing .................................. 3-29 3..............................3. 4-12 3............. 4-5 Institutional Water Demand........................... 4-2 1.....10................1 Demographic Trends Adopted in Previous Studies to Calculate Water Demand.................... 3-30 Chapter 4 ................1 Access for Water..10............................................. 4-14 3....................... 4-15 FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page v Version 02 .........................................10..1 2.............................................10................. 3-29 3.....................................................4 2..............................1 Third Nairobi Water Supply Project – Long Term Development Plan – Howard Humphreys (1986) ............................... 4-8 3..................2 Per Capita Water Consumption Rates Used in Previous Studies ... 4-2 1..... 4-3 2 Methodology For Forecasting Water Demand Within The Study Area ................................... 3-30 3..........................................................................3.........2 “Other Demand” – Commercial.............................B.............................6 Inadequate Transportation Services..........

..........................1 Thika 6 Dam (70Mm ) 225...... below: ........................................4 Introduction ................5-22 10.4 The WRUA Development Cycle .......... 5-44 16......................................1......................3..........3.......................................................2 10..............................................................3............. above: ......5-25 11.... 5-47 17 River Flow Data ........ 5-22 3 3 10 Third Nairobi Water Supply Project...........................5-34 13 Hydrological Study and Water Management for Ngethu-Sasumua System..............5-35 AWSB 15...........2 Introduction ................................................4 15.......................... Feasibility Report.........................1.............. I....................................... 5-21 3 3 9......................... 5-38 Compensation Flows and Resultant Yields ....3.......1 The Water Act......000 m /day):........ 5-45 16..3 Downstream Water Demands ........................................ 5-37 Study Area Water Demand and Yield Comparison in 1986 .....................................................................................4 Seasonal Rainfall Change ....4 Physiography of Eastern Aberdare Catchments .....2............................ 5-22 Hydrological Data Collection ...........5 Strategic Actions ................. 5-22 3 3 9..............................2...................................2...3........ 5-45 16........... 5-47 16..........3 15......... for WRMA............................................ 5-23 Other Hydrological Findings..2.................................................................................................................... 5-23 Naturalised flow sequences .............2 The Eastern Aberdare Catchments ......... 5-45 16......3.........3...........2 Annual Rainfall Averages.......................1 Rainfall ... 5-26 11....... BRLi / Seureca........... Northern Collector Scheme...........2.......................3 Licensed Abstraction from Northern Collector Rivers .......................2 Soil Hydrological Characteristics – Eastern Aberdare Catchments ..................6 16....... 2007 .....2.......... 5-39 Recent legislation Governing Water Resources Management ........2 Water Resources Management Rules.....................2 River Flow .....1........000 m /day) – see Error! Reference source not found..................... 2002 ............................. 5-25 11.......................................... 5-25 Hydrological Data Collection ............................... 5-43 16.....5-51 17.... 5-42 16...............................2...................Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat...............1 Criteria for Reliability of Supply ...........................1........................ 5-42 16.......................... 5-42 16 Hydrological Data Update Since 1992... 5-43 16........ 225...... Athi Water Services Board (AWSB)..................... 5-42 16.. Antonaropoulos & Associates..1 11............... Howard Humphreys.............1 10..................... 5-43 16..................5 15................. 5-45 16.............................................000 m /day .................. 5-51 Page iii Version 02 FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS ........................ for Athi Water Services Board (AWSB) ................1.................................5-34 14 Physiographical Survey in Upper Tana Catchment......................................................3 Soil infiltration Characteristics of Eastern Aberdare Catchments .......................... 82..............1 Mean Annual Runoff Distribution .B...............3..............000 m /day) – see Error! Reference source not found................................................................... below: .............................2 15..................3 Rainfall Data Update ...........5-42 16................................... 5-22 3 3 9.... 5-35 Flow Naturalisation ...1 Rainfall Data Integrity...........................................1 Introduction .2 Northern Collector Scheme – see Error! Reference source not found.. 5-20 9.............................................................................................MoWD . 5-37 Transposition Equations for diversion and storage sites ......... 5-27 11........... Second Draft Report (Draft Version).........5-35 15 Previous Hydrological Yield Analysis..........................................4 Yield Assessments ............................................................................. 5-24 11 Nairobi Water Supply Project...... 397....1 15.. 2010 ....................... 5-35 Criteria for Reliability of Supply – Nairobi Water Supply Projects ..........................3 Water Resource Users Associations (WRUA) ..... 2009 ........................3......................................................................... Hydrology Review............................................2............ 5-32 12 Fourth Nairobi Water Supply Project (Maragua 4 Dam Project)....................................5 Maragua 4 Dam (102 Mm .. 1994 and 1995 .......... Patel & Partners Table of Contents 9......................... Howard Humphreys.........3 10.. Feasibility Report Review Report.............................4 Ruiru 1 Dam (50 Mm ... 5-47 16........ 5-43 16.................................................. 5-27 11...... Z&A P................ 1998 ........ 5-25 11..3 Ndarugu River Dam (300 Mm ..3 Long Term Annual Rainfall Change .....

. 6-7 4.. 6-1 Data Availability..................... 6-1 1 2 3 Introduction ........................................2 3...............2...........................................................2.....3..................2.......................3 Overall Groundwater Resource .............. 6-7 4........ 6-1 Groundwater Inventory ......................1 Direct Recharge over the NGWB ..........................................1 3.....................3.................5 Individual Domestic Boreholes .............................2 Possible Well-fields developments outside Nairobi City ................................................Groundwater Assessment .........................2 Groundwater Exchange with Rivers .. 6-2 3.................................................................. 6-3 3................3....................................................................4 3.. 6-4 Community Water Supplies .......................................................2..... 6-4 Boreholes for Industrial and Commercial Purpose .......................................... 6-3 Abstraction from Water Companies for Public Water Supply ...................2...................... 6-5 3......1 Present Situation ......2......................................................... 6-7 4................ 6-6 3..2 Wells and Groundwater Abstraction ...............1 Nairobi City ............................................................................................................... 6-7 4. 6-2 3.................................2................... 6-5 3. 6-4 3.....................................2 Probable and Possible Changes for Groundwater Abstraction in Study Area ..................................1 Existence of Groundwater Body .................................. 6-4 Other public and institutional water supply ..........................3 Groundwater Abstraction ...................2............ 6-6 4 Groundwater Data for Water Balance Model ............................................3 3.......... 6-9 AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 6-ii Version 02 ............. 6-7 4..................................................................................................................................3 Outside the Nairobi Groundwater Body ..................................Egis Bceom International in association with MIBP Table of Contents Table of Contents Chapter 6 ..................

.................................. 6-7 4.........2.........Groundwater Assessment ... 6-1 1 2 3 Introduction ...........................................1 Nairobi City ........................................ 6-3 Abstraction from Water Companies for Public Water Supply ...................................... 6-4 Community Water Supplies .......................................................2. 6-6 3.2 3...........................................................................................Egis Bceom International in association with MIBP Table of Contents Table of Contents Chapter 6 ...................................................... 6-2 3...3 Outside the Nairobi Groundwater Body ......................................3... 6-4 Boreholes for Industrial and Commercial Purpose ..... 6-2 3...2..............................................2...2...... 6-4 Other public and institutional water supply .....................................2 Possible Well-fields developments outside Nairobi City ............ 6-3 3..............3 3.......................... 6-1 Data Availability..2...................................................3 Groundwater Abstraction ....................................................................... 6-7 4.......................3.............................................................5 Individual Domestic Boreholes ......2..... 6-7 4.......................................1 3...3................ 6-5 3..........2 Wells and Groundwater Abstraction .2........................................ 6-9 AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 6-ii Version 02 ...................................... 6-7 4..............................3 Overall Groundwater Resource .....1 Existence of Groundwater Body ............................................ 6-5 3.........................................2 Probable and Possible Changes for Groundwater Abstraction in Study Area .................. 6-4 3........... 6-1 Groundwater Inventory ...... 6-6 4 Groundwater Data for Water Balance Model .................................1 Present Situation ..................................................... 6-7 4....................................................................................1 Direct Recharge over the NGWB .....4 3.............................2 Groundwater Exchange with Rivers ......................................................................................

...2030: Population Forecast............... 3-25 Table 3-7: Population Growth Patterns Within NMR Between 1999 ............ 2-17 Table 3-1 : Study Area ....................................... 4-10 FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page vi Version 02 3 3 AWSB ......................................................................................................... Health Sector and Administrations ........................................Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat................................... 4-3 Table 4-6 : Projections of Water Demand for Nairobi – Seureca/CAS (2007) ......................... 3-15 Table 3-4: Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR) ................................................................................................................................................................................ 2-17 Table 2-17: Simulated Abstractions compared to the Inflows (averages over the Period)...... CBS).....................................................................B.............................................................. 2-14 Table 2-13: Phase II Configuration for the Northern Collector . 3-26 Table 4-1: Comparison of Population Growth Rates Used In Previous Studies / Intercensal Growth Rates ................................. 2-5 Table 2-4: Thika Dam Characteristics ............................2035 .......................... 2005) .............. 4-3 Table 4-5 : Projections of Water Demand for Nairobi – Sogreah/Cape (2005) ................................................................................. 4-9 Table 4-14 : Housing Type Distribution for Three Towns (Statistical Abstracts...... 3-25 Table 3-6: Growth Options under High and Low Growth Nairobi Centric Development Scenario ............................................................................ 3-1 Table 3-2 : List of Satellite Towns.......List of Districts and 2009 Population ................................................................................................................. 2-8 Table 2-6: Capacity of Ngethu Water Treatment Works ...............................................................................Ngethu System ..................... 4-7 Table 4-12 : Demand per Capita for Health Sector....... 2-14 Table 2-14: 90% Reliable Yield in m /s..............................................................................Gigiri .......................................................................... P and others) and Population Living in Urban Area .......................... 2-1 Table 2-2: Ruiru Dam Characteristics .............................................................................................. 2-9 Table 2-9: Nairobi Middle Supply Area ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2-11 Table 2-10: Nairobi Lower Supply Area ... 2-2 Table 2-3: Sasumua Dam Characteristics ...................... 3-2 Table 3-3 : Population Distribution in NMR Based on 1999 – 2009 National Housing Cencus .................. 4-6 Table 4-10 : Consumption Rates for Schools.................... Patel & Partners List of Tables List of Tables Table 2-1: Water Sources and related Capacities ........... 4-2 Table 4-4 : Summary of Water Demand Projections within the Study Area in m /d. 3-24 Table 3-5: Projected Population up to 2035 .......... 2-11 Table 2-11: NWSEPIP Programme ................... 2-17 Table 2-16: Water Balance at Thika Dam Over the Simulated Period ........................... 2-11 Table 2-12: Phase I Configuration for the Northern Collector ........ 4-6 Table 4-11 : Demand per Capita for Education ....................... 2-7 Table 2-5: Design Capacity of the Mwagu ..................... I......................... 2-9 Table 2-8: Nairobi Upper Supply Area ................................................ 4-2 Table 4-3 : Projections of Water Demand for Nairobi – Howard Humphreys (June 1985).......................................................................................... 4-1 Table 4-2: Per Capita Consumption Rates Adopted in Previous Studies ....................................... 4-3 Table 4-7 : Categorisation of Domestic Consumers ................................... 2005............................... 4-5 Table 4-9 : Adopted Consumption Rates Without UfW.................................................. 4-10 Table 4-15 : Population Growth Rate Estimate and Population in the Study Area at District Level .................................................... 4-4 Table 4-8 : Consumption Rates for Urban Areas and Rural (Practice Manual............................................................................... 2-16 Table 2-15: Water Balance at Sasumua Dam Over the Simulated Period .............Mataara ............................................................ 4-7 Table 4-13 : Population per Source (PD......................................................................................................................................................... 2-8 Table 2-7: Treated Water Transmission Pipelines Ngethu .............................

.................... 4-19 Table 4-25: Water Demand Forecast .................... 4-11 Table 4-17 : Number of Households by Water Sources in Nairobi City ......................... I..................................................... 4-12 Table 4-19 : Average Billed Volumes per Category from July to December 2010 .......................Ngong........................................... 4-27 Table 4-33: Water Demand Forecast ...................................... 4-25 Table 4-31: Water Demand Forecast ..........................Mavoko Area ....B......................................Kiambu Area.................................................................................................Karuri Area .................. 4-18 Table 4-24: Water Demand Forecast ............... 4-22 Table 4-28: Water Demand Forecast ..........................................Githunguri Town ..........................................Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.. 4-17 Table 4-23: Water Demand Forecast .......... Patel & Partners List of Tables Table 4-16: Spreadsheet ................. 4-12 Table 4-18 : Water Supply Coverage by Income Level .................Ruiru-Juja Area ..............................................................................................Gatundu Town ......................Nairobi City Plus Envelop Areas..................Thika Town ........................................ 4-28 Table 4-34: Water Demand Forecast ......... 4-16 Table 4-22: Water Demand Forecast – Nairobi City ................ 4-14 Table 4-21: Nairobi Water Demand Calcultion – Medium Population Growth Scenario .................................................................................... 4-23 Table 4-29: Water Demand Forecast ..............................................................Kikuyu Area ........................................... 4-21 Table 4-27: Water Demand Forecast .................................. 4-24 Table 4-30: Water Demand Forecast .................. Ongata Rongai & Kiserian Areas .......................................Limuru Town .................................................................................. 4-13 Table 4-20 : Summary of Water Demand Forecast from Various Studies . 4-20 Table 4-26: Water Demand Forecast ...................................................................................... 4-26 Table 4-32: Water Demand Forecast .....................Tala – Kangundo Towns.................... 4-29 AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page vii Version 02 .................................

............ 5-33 Table 5...............................Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat........... 5-36 Table 5...................9: Gauging Record Extended to 1994 ...........................14: Water supply schemes ...............................................................27: Rainfall Data Availability ..............................................11: Flow Data Availability ........................................ 5-94 Table 5..............................................34: Flow Duration Results ........ 5-101 Table 5.......................................... with and without HEP ................. 5-32 Table 5.. 5-24 Table 5.......................................5: Naturalised flow sequence available from 1946-84 ........................................................................7: Observed 10-day Flow Data .....................39: Thika Dam – Critical drawdown periods .......... 5-37 Table 5.................... I..................................................................................................25: Soil Characteristics – Eastern Aberdare Catchments .........................3: Base Stations Used for Data Infilling and Extension .....................33: RGS 4CB5 – Flow duration for Different Periods Analysed................ 5-48 Table 5...................................................15: Comparison of Flow Frequency and Flow Duration Indices .......... 5-17 Table 5................ 5-20 Table 5...................................... 5-40 Table 5.. 5-18 Table 5........37: Potential Dam Site Locations and Catchment Areas ........ Patel & Partners List of Tables List of Tables Table 5.........38: Thika Dam Mean Annual Inflow (MAI) ......................................................................................................................28: Flow Records ...... 5-57 Table 5...13: Licensed abstractions from Northern Collector Rivers ...21: Reliable Yields Relative to MAR and Flow Duration Exceedence ........................ 5-47 Table 5......... 5-27 Table 5............................... 5-89 Table 5............. 5-110 Table 5...................................................2: Quality Summary – Data to 1984 ....................................................6: Potential dam sites .................................... 5-31 Table 5.... 5-89 Table 5.................... 5-41 Table 5............................16: Effect of Reliability Criterion .......... 5-44 Table 5..............................................................20: Flow Transposition Ratios for Diversion Sites (1998 Report) ........................................................................ 5-106 Table 5....................................... 5-33 Table 5............................................................................................. 5-36 Table 5................................................ 5-40 Table 5...17: Public Water Supply Abstractions in 1986... 5-16 Table 5........................................................... 5-111 FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page v Version 02 AWSB ..................................................................................B........................... 5-29 Table 5................. 5-38 Table 5...............................................................................12: Northern Collector Feasibility Report Recommended Source Developments ............................................................................. 5-39 Table 5.......................36: Mean Monthly Reservoir Evaporation Estimates at Thika Dam .......................................................... 5-55 Table 5................................29: Gauging record extended from 1994 Onwards .............................................................................30: Flow and Rainfall Comparisons .........................31: RGS 4CB5 – Extended WRMA data compared with previous studies ................................................... 5-4 Table 5.. 5-74 Table 5.......................................................................35: Abstraction permits from WRMA .........10: Rainfall Data Availability .....................32: Comparison of Flows With Previous Estimates ........................................................................................... 5-70 Table 5.........................................19: Storage and Diversion Site Transposition Equations (1986 Report) .............................. 5-41 Table 5..................4: Gauging Stations grouped according to naturalisation needs (in 1986) ................................. 5-18 Table 5..........................................................................................................................24: Compensation flows at diversion sites.........18: Balance Between Surface Water Resources and Water Demand ....................26: Rainfall Seasons .....................1: Early low flow studies for Nairobi ......... 5-102 Table 5.................................8: Naturalised 10-day flow sequences .......................23: Recommended Northern Collector Phase II Configuration...................... 5-39 Table 5................................................22: Recommended Northern Collector Phase I Configuration.................. 5-24 Table 5................................40: Thika Dam – Yield During Critical Drawdown Periods............................................................ 5-90 Table 5.....................................................

..............................................................................................4: Thika 6 Reservoir and tunnels feeding to Chania River ......................... 5-53 Figure 5......................................... 5-22 Figure 5......... 5-61 Figure 5... 5-62 Figure 5.............................................................8: Rainfall Data Availability from KMD................................................ 5-68 Figure 5.................................................................................................19: Station 4BD6 Rating Check ....................... 5-62 Figure 5............................................. 5-59 Figure 5.......................... 5-121 List of Figures Figure 5.......................... 5-60 Figure 5....................................................................................................................... HH.. 5-11 Figure 5.............................................................5: Northern Collector & Maragua 4 Reservoir ............... 5-21 Figure 5.................... 5-46 Figure 5......................................................23: Station 4BE1 Gaugings 1977-85 ............................................. 5-52 Figure 5................. I.. 5-118 Table 5........... 5-49 Figure 5.........................................................21: Station 4BE1 Rating Check................................17: Variation in Mean Runoff between Sub-Basins ............7: Double mass curve – Rainfall stations …233 and …259 ..............................................................20: Station 4BD7 Rating Check ..........................................................28: Station 4BE6 Rating Check.........3: Extended study area – Supplement to Vol............................................... 5-117 Table 5.............................. 5-50 Figure 5................Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat...............2: Chania and Thika Catchments ..............................................14: Thika Dam Rainfall ......................................... 4...... 5-51 Figure 5........... 5-67 Figure 5............... 5-69 Figure 5.....................................................34: Double Mass Curve – Checking RGS 4CB5 Data with RGS 4BE1 ................22: Station 4BE1 rating comparison 1963-77...............32: Station 4CB5 Rating Check ..............................................................................................36: Comparison RGS 4BE1 / 4CB5 with later spurious 4CB5 data deleted ...............................................................10: Long Term Rainfall at North Kinangop ................................................................................................1: River and hydrometric network (lower catchments not shown) . 5-65 Figure 5............33: Station 4CB7 Rating Check .......25: Station 4BE1 Gaugings 2010-11 .............................................................12: Annual Rainfall Variation at Gatare Forest Station ...................................................................................................6: Ruiru Dams ... 5-58 Figure 5............................................16: Mean Annual Runoff Distribution in millimetres........................................................ 5-54 Figure 5..................................41: 90% Reliability Estimated Yields for assumed highest dam heights .11: Rainfall at Kahuhia . 5-60 Figure 5........................................ 5-61 Figure 5..........................31: Station 4BE9 Rating Check – Irati River .........................29: Station 4BE7 Rating Check...............................27: Station 4BE4 Rating Check.......................................................... 5-50 Figure 5....30: Station 4BE8 Rating Check – Gikigie River ...........................24: Station 4BE1 Gaugings 1986-99 ...................................15: Mean Annual Runoff .........................................................................................9: Long Term Rainfall at Muranga District Office .............................................................................................................................................. 5-9 Figure 5.............................13: Monthly Rainfall Variation at Gatare Forest Station .... 5-64 Figure 5.............................26: Station 4BE3 Rating Check.......................... 5-50 Figure 5........................................................18: Variation in Mean Unit Runoff between Sub-Basins .................................................. 5-72 FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page vi Version 02 AWSB ......42: Sediment Yield Rates ............... 5-54 Figure 5.... Patel & Partners List of Figures Table 5...................................................... 5-71 Figure 5.............................................................................43: Maragua 4 floods – Preliminary Estimates ............................................... 5-2 Figure 5................................................ 5-49 Figure 5.............................................................................................. 5-51 Figure 5...................................................................................... 5-21 Figure 5........... 5-66 Figure 5..35: Double mass curve – Checking RGS 4CB5 data with RGS 4CB7 . 5-63 Figure 5............B......................... 1984 .................... 5-71 Figure 5..............

....................Downstream flow releases............................48: RGS 4BD7 v 4CB5 – Daily flow correlation........... 5-90 Figure 5.....................69: Reservoir Impounded Area / Gross Storage (Sub-Basins 3BD...................................... 5-108 Figure 5.................................................................................37: Correlation of 4CB5 Naturalised and 4CB7 Flows...... Collector Rivers – Q/ADF ..................47: RGS 4BD6 v 4BD7 – Daily flow correlation....................74: Thika Dam Inflows Since Commissioning (2 x RGS 4CB5 flow) ..................77: Thika Dam ...... 5-110 Figure 5............................................................. I.............. 3CB) ....58: 10-Day Flow Duration – All N..................................38: Correlation of 4CB5 Naturalised and 4CB7 Flows..................72: Observed Daily Flow Correlation – RGS 4CB5 and RGS 4CB8 ............................................ 5-102 Figure 5..................................... Ruiru potential reservoir yields compared with Thika 6 .. 5-111 Figure 5.................................. 3BC) ................................. 1990-01 Data ...............62: Various potential reservoir sites on Thika River ................... 5-78 Figure 5.................................................. 5-73 Figure 5...................................................................................71: Correlation between RGS 4CB5 flows and Thika dam inflows ............................. 5-85 Figure 5..................................................78: RGS 4CB5 actual record – 1950 to 2010 ...............61: Various potential reservoir sites – Karimenu and Kimakia compared ............................44: RGS 4BD6 v 4CB5 – Correlation with adopted equation . 5-91 Figure 5........... 5-97 Figure 5........................................... 5-79 Figure 5............ 5-111 FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page vii Version 02 AWSB 2 .......... 5-81 Figure 5.......... 5-99 Figure 5.......................... 5-80 Figure 5.......................... 5-92 Figure 5......................... 5-74 Figure 5.................55: Station 4BD6: One-Day Flow Duration Curve Comparisons ................................................... 5-92 Figure 5........... 1972-82 Data .............45: Regression equations for data infilling – RGS 4BD7 v 4BE1 ... 3BB.....................59: Flow / Catchment Area Relationship (1970-2010 data)...................40: Regression equations for data infilling – RGS 4BD6 v 4BE1 ..........63: Potential Ndarugu...........................................39: Cumulative Runoff at RGS 4BE1 – Comparison with previous studies................. Collector Rivers ...... 5-104 Figure 5............................ 5-99 Figure 5...........43: RGS 4BD6 v 4BE1 – 1993 to 2000 flow correlation .. 5-86 Figure 5........................................ 5-83 Figure 5........64: Potential Maragua reservoir yields compared with Thika 6 . 5-109 Figure 5........Tunnel Drawoff Record ................................. 5-81 Figure 5.............................................60: Various reservoir sites – Chania.........................41: RGS 4BD6 v 4BE1 – 1972 to 1985 flow correlation .................54: Station 4BD7: One-Day Flow Duration Curve Comparisons ......76: Thika Dam – Storage Changes With Time ................68: Reservoir Impounded Area / Gross Storage (Sub-Basins 3BA. 5-107 Figure 5...70: Reservoir Impounded Area / Gross Storage (Sub-Basins 3BD................. 5-108 Figure 5.......53: Station 4BE1: One-Day Flow Duration Curve Comparisons .................. 5-104 Figure 5..............73: Thika Dam – NCWSC Inflow as Proportion of RGS 4CB5 Flow ......... 5-107 Figure 5......57: 10-Day Standardised Flow Duration – All N...46: RGS 4BD7 v 4BE1 – Correlation with Error! Reference source not found. Kiama and Kimakia............................................................................................ 5-84 Figure 5........Cumec .... 5-93 Figure 5..................50: RGS 4BE6 v 4BE1 – Daily flow correlation (1977-84)............... 5-105 Figure 5....................................... 5-98 Figure 5.... Collector Rivers Unit Runoff .................................................. 5-87 Figure 5............................................75: Thika Dam ...... 5-83 Figure 5.. 3CB) ..............................................52: RGS 4BE9 v 4BE1 – Daily flow correlation (1977-00)..............49: RGS 4BE6 v 4BE1 – Daily flow correlation ..................... 5-97 Figure 5......... 5-80 Figure 5........ ........................................................ 5-91 Figure 5...............................67: Evaporation Data ....................................... and extended ..........................B.............................Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.......51: RGS 4BE8 v 4BE1 – Daily flow correlation (1990-97)....L/s/km ..... 5-98 Figure 5.....56: 10-Day Flow duration – All N......................................... 5-100 Figure 5.....65: Potential Reservoir yields at Northern Corridor Diversion Points compared with Thika 6 and potential Maragua yields ........................................ Patel & Partners List of Figures Figure 5................................................66: Reservoir Area / Storage Curves ...42: RGS 4BD6 v 4BE1 – 1986 to 1992 flow correlation ............. 5-82 Figure 5............................................. 5-93 Figure 5.... 5-84 Figure 5...

.83: Maragua 4 Reservoir – Yield v Failure Rate ....Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat..................................... 1997 to 2010 ....................... 5-115 Figure 5................................................B.............................. 5-116 Figure 5.79: Thika Dam simulation – 1997 to 2010 data ............... 5-113 Figure 5................82: Surface Area / Volume Relationship – Maragua 4 Reservoir ... 5-118 Figure 5...............80: Thika Dam – Gross Yield Reliability............ 5-112 Figure 5................... 5-114 Figure 5................................................. 5-116 Figure 5....85: Generalised Yield / Storage Relationships ............ I..................................81: Thika Dam – Comparison of 1997-2010 Yield with Earlier Estimates ......................................................................84: Maragua 4 – 90% Reliable Yield / Storage Compared with Previous Estimate....................... 5-121 AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page viii Version 02 ............... Patel & Partners List of Figures Figure 5...................................86: TNWSP Flood Estimates ...............

...................... 6-7 List of Figures Figure 6-1: Extension of the Nairobi Groundwater Body (NGWB) ............................................................................................. 6-5 Table 6-2: Groundwater Balance ......................... 6-9 AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 6-iii Version 02 ......................................................................................... 6-8 Figure 6-3: Possible Location of a Well Field in Kiunyu Sector ........................................................................................................................ 6-3 Figure 6-2: Possible Location of a Well Field in the North of Kiambu ................... 6-5 Table 6-3: Present Groundwater Contribution to Water Demand .....Egis Bceom International in association with MIBP List of Tables List of Tables Table 6-1: Existing Wells and Groundwater Abstraction (NGWB) .............................................

................... 3-3 Figure 3-2: Nairobi City and the Effective Demand Envelop .......................................................................................................B... Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Limuru Town ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4-23 Figure 4-8: Water Demand for High.. 4-25 Figure 4-10: Water Demand for High.................................... Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Kiambu Area ............. 3-19 Figure 3-9: The Map Showing the Land Use Distribution in the Metropolitan Region.......................................... 3-8 Figure 3-4: Map Showing the Expansion of Nairobi City 1900 .................................................................................................................................................................... Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Kikuyu Area ............................... Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – RuiruJuja Area ................................................................................................................................................................... 4-24 Figure 4-9: Water Demand for High....................................................................................... 2-10 Figure 3-1: Project Location Plan – Nairobi City and Satellite Towns ............ 4-22 Figure 4-7: Water Demand for High............................................................. 2-3 Figure 2-2: Existing Nairobi City Water Supply System ............. Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Thika Town ................................ 3-18 Figure 3-8: Distribution of Population Density in Nairobi Metropolitan Region 2009................................................................................................................................ Ongata Rongai & Kiserian Areas .................................Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat....................................... Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Githunguri Town.............................................................. 1-4 Figure 1-2: Functions and Roles of Institutions set up under Water Act.................................... Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Mavoko Area ................................................... 4-17 Figure 4-2: Water Demand for High........................................................... 2002 ............. Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Ngong................................................................. 3-23 Figure 4-1: Water Demand for High....................................... 1-5 Figure 2-1: Nairobi Water Supply – Schematic of Existing Main Systems ....... 3-9 Figure 3-5: Map Showing Nairobi Metropolitan Growth Strategy ................................. 3-13 Figure 3-6: Population Distribution in Nairobi City in 1990s ............................................... 4-20 Figure 4-5: Water Demand for High...................................................................... 3-4 Figure 3-3: Metro Region in Relation to Nairobi.... Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Nairobi & Envelop Areas....... Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Karuri Area ........................... 4-27 Figure 4-12: Water Demand for High....... 3-17 Figure 3-7: Distribution of Schools and 276 Sub Locations .................................................... Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – TalaKangundo Towns ......................................................................................................................................... Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Nairobi City.................... 4-18 Figure 4-3: Water Demand for High.......................................................................................... 4-29 AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page viii Version 02 .......... I.........................................................................2009 .......... Patel & Partners List of Figures List of Figures Figure 1-1: Project Location Map ... 4-21 Figure 4-6: Water Demand for High............................................................................................................................................................................................. 4-19 Figure 4-4: Water Demand for High...................................................................................................... 4-28 Figure 4-13: Water Demand for High...... 2-4 Figure 2-3: Nairobi Three Water Supply Areas ................... 4-26 Figure 4-11: Water Demand for High..............................................................Nairobi City and Satellite Towns ........................................................................................... Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Gatundu Town ........................................

B. Patel & Partners Acronyms and abbreviations Acronyms and abbreviations AFD AWSB EBI EIA GOK IDA IPPF KENGEN MCA MWI NCWSC NEMA NWMP NWSEPIP PCC RAP RPF TC TWSB TOR UFW WA2002 WB WRMA WASREB WaSSIP WSB WSP Agence Française de Développement Athi Water Services Board Egis Bceom International Environmental Impact Assessment Government of Kenya International Development Association of the World Bank Indigenous Peoples Planning Framework Kenya Electricity Generating Company Limited Multi Criteria Analysis Ministry of Water and Irrigation Nairobi City Water Supply and Sewerage Company National Environment Management Authority National Water Master Plan Nairobi Water and Sanitation Emergency Physical Investment Project Project Coordination Committee Resettlement Action Plan AWSB Resettlement Plan Framework Technical Committee Tana Water Services Board Terms of Reference Unaccounted For Water Water Act 2002 World Bank Water Resources Management Authority Water Services Regulatory Board Water and Sanitation Service Improvement Project Water Services Board Water Service Provider FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page ix Version 02 .Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. I.

AFD. Socio-Economic and Demographic Trends • Water Demand Forecast • Surface Water Resource Assessment • Groundwater Assessment • Other Water Sources • Preparation of Water Source Long term development Strategy and Scenarios • Water Balance Modelling • Least Cost Analysis of Nairobi Water Supply Water Sources Development Scenarios • Environmental Impacts • Multi-Criteria Analysis FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 1 Version 02 . and egis/MIBP. Production and Transmission Systems • Study Area. Land-use. Accordingly. Patel & Partners. Volume 1 of the present report is organised as follows: • Present Water Sources. Meetings / Video Conferences were held between Representatives of AWSB. Preliminary discussions regarding the Proposed Scenarios. I. Comments on the Preliminary findings have been incorporated in the Water Sources Option Review Report. AWSB The Draft Version 01 of the Water Sources Options Review Report was submitted to AWSB on rd 23 May 2011. The Minutes of the Meeting are given in Annex 1. Patel & Partners Executive Summary Executive Summary 1 Introduction The present document is the Water Sources Option Review Report prepared by the Consultant Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat I.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. World Bank. Patel & Partners according to the Contract with Athi Water Services Board (AWSB) for the consulting services related to the Feasibility Study and Master Plan for Developing New Water Sources for Nairobi and Satellite Towns. • • • • • Inception Report.B. 3 – Water Demand Report – April 2011 Review of Groundwater Resources – June 2011 Various discussion forums have been held jointly between AWSB. World Bank. 1 – Preliminary Review and Update of Scenarios for Water Supply to Nairobi – February 2011 Working Paper No. AFD and other Stakeholders to discuss the Preliminary findings outlined in the above mentioned Working Papers. February 2011 Working Paper No. the following Reports / Working Papers have been submitted by Egis Bceom International / Mangat I. 2 – Surface Water Hydrology – March 2011 Working Paper No. To date.B. Economic Analysis and Multi Criteria Analysis were held and the Consultant was asked to review the Final Report incorporating comments by various Parties.B. Subsequent to the submission.

On-going Studies and Projects Proposals for New Water Sources Mobilisation 2 2. The yields from the proposed surface water and ground water sources are given in Table E2 on page 4.000 104.66 1. Patel & Partners Executive Summary Volume 2 of the present report provides standalone analysis for each of the Satellite Towns included in the scope of the study with: • Present situation of Water Sources Mobilisation and Related Schemes • Water Demand Forecast • New Sources already Identified.000 4.000 21.60 0.560m /d) and 0. Figure E1 on page 3 shows the locations of the existing Sources and Transmission Pipelines to Nairobi City.240m /d) respectively. I. Two New Wellfields in Kiunyu (Thika) and Ruiru have been identified with potential yields of 3 3 0.000 456.35m3/s (30.000 m3/day with a potential to grow by 1. 2. private or individual boreholes and wells was considered to be about 3 45.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.2.000 Yield (m³/s) 0.000 225. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 2 Version 02 .27 Remarks Sasumua Reservoir Chania River / Mwagu Intake Ruiru Reservoir Kikuyu Springs Ndakaini Dam (Thika 6) Groundwater (Private & NWSC Boreholes) Total Available Yield : Existing Existing Existing Existing Existing (70 Mm³ Storage). Table E1 : Yield of Existing Water Sources Source Yield (m³/d) 57.24 0.52 5. the Surface Water Resource available from existing sources is summarized in Table E1 below.4m3/s (34.1 Future Water Sources Surface Water Sources AWSB A number of sources have been proposed to supplement the existing sources to supply the main schemes supplying Nairobi City. Estimated Contribution 2.20 0.B.000 45.2 2. Test boreholes to be drilled to confirm these yields.000 m /day per year till the 2035 horizon. commercial or industrial purpose via public.1 Present Situation and Future Sources for Nairobi Water Supply Available Surface Water Sources Considering confirmation of the hydrology for rivers in the Study Area.2.05 2. The expected yields as assessed by previous studies were checked and refined in the present study as stated in chapter 5 “Surface Water Resources Assessment” and in chapter 9 “Water Balance Modelling”.2 Groundwater The groundwater contributions to Nairobi Water Supply for both domestic.

Existing Nairobi City Water supply Schemes AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 3 Version 02 .B.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. I. Patel & Partners Executive Summary Figure E1 .

However.60 9. These options have to be studied in detail under the Proposed Sewage Master Plan. this option is relatively expensive and water quality / level of treatment required for this option to be developed is dependent on the various uses of recycled water.440 797. the option of transfer of treated wastewater back to Tana catchment can provide the additional benefits of returning water for generation of hydropower.Komu River Transfer.472 m /d 3 4.3 Other Water Sources Other water source which can be used in the long term is recycling of wastewater. AWSB 2.2. Patel & Partners Executive Summary Table E2 : Proposed Potential New Water Sources Source Yield (m³/d) Yield (m³/s) 0.3 Existing Production Systems Four different systems are presently supplying water to Nairobi City.240 151. (300 Mm³ Storage). The following section summarizes briefly their characteristics for raw water production. Wastewater can be used in a number of ways: • • • • Industrial Use Agricultural / Irrigation Environmental and Recreational use Supplementing Potable Water Supply from other Sources Another option for indirect use of treated wastewater is to recharge aquifers or the replenishment of surface water reservoirs.792 0. 2. Similarly.23m /s 3 Diversion and transfer from Irati.6 1. Githugi & North Mathioya Rivers the yield of Maragua Dam is dependent on cross basin transfer and varies for different Scenarios With Chania .75 Remarks Proposed Groundwater Wellfields in Kiunyu & Ruiru Proposed Northern Collector – Phase I Proposed Northern Collector – Phase II Proposed Maragua 4 Reservoir 64. I.75 45. Hembe. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 4 Version 02 . treatment and transmission facilities.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. • • • • Thika – Ngethu – Gigiri System Sasumua – Kabete System Ruiru – Kabete System Kikuyu Springs System Table E3 on page 5 gives a summary of the estimated capacities of the existing facilities.800 138.53 Proposed Ndarugu 1 Reservoir Total Potential Yield 397.200 1. Gikigie and Maragua Rivers Diversion and transfer from South Mathioya.B.

691 0.000 m /day From 442.000 m /day 3 473.000 m /day 3 63.7 m /s) 3 5.01% 1.761 0. AWSB Approximately 92% of Nairobi Population receive water from NCWSC piped network either through direct connections.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. However. 1.100 m /day 3 20. According to NCC (1996).000 m /day 3 (5.9 million inhabitants of Nairobi City rely on NCWSC water supply at present.000 m /day 3 (5.07% 985.B.18% NCWSC Network 907.000m /day 3 3 Population and Water Demand Projections The forecast water demand including population projection for Nairobi City and Nairobi City plus Envelop Areas are given in Tables E6 and E7 and Figures E2 and E3 on Pages 7 and 8 respectively. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 5 Version 02 .17% Other Total 99 0.800 m /day 3 3 Ruiru – Kabete Kikuyu Springs Groundwater 45.Estimated Capacities of Existing Facilities System Thika – Gigiri Ngethu – Facility Reservoir intake Kiamia – Chania tunnel Kimakia – Chania tunnel Mwagu intake – Mataara tunnel Mataara pipelines Ngethu Treatment Plant Transmission main Sasumua – Kabete Dam offtake Sasumua Treatment Work Offtake Kabete Treatment Plant Combined Boreholes (Private & NWSC) Design Capacity 3 492. I.729 7.28% Lake Stream Spring / Well / Borehole 70.600 to 285.8 m /s 3 544. A 92% coverage of Nairobi population means that approximately 2. water kiosks or water vendors as described in Table E4 below. Patel & Partners Executive Summary Table E3 : Summary . 12% of the plots in the informal settlements have direct access to water in the plot while the majority (86% of the plots) obtain water from kiosks and water vendors. 2005).000 m /day Present Capacity 360.3 m /s) 3 458.000 m /day 3 4.345 0.000 3 m /day 54.000 m /day 3 357.000 3 /m ) as a result of inadequacy and unreliability of the existing water supply system.15% Jabia / Rain Harvesting 1.000 m /day 3 (6.3 m /s) 3 465.14% 687 0. Table E4: Number of Households by Water Sources in Nairobi City Water Sources: Households Percentage Pond / Dam 2.000 m /day 3 3 59. Access to water in these areas is a major problem due to the high cost of water purchased from water vendors (about Kshs.016 100% Source: 2009 Population and Housing Census The existing NCWSC network can be considered largely as the most important source of water for Nairobi.704 92.700 m /day 23. the per capita water coverage in Nairobi’s informal settlements is very low with the demand being far above the supply (Sogreah et al. Water kiosks are known to sell water at three times more than that charged by NCWSC.

Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 6 Version 02 .401 6% 50% 22% 22% 78% 2035 7.107. Table E5: Water Supply Coverage by Income Level Year Population High Income (IC) Medium Income (IC) Low Income (IC) Low Income (NIC) % of Pop.063. It is estimated that approximately 25. supplied by IC IC .420m /day. 100% water supply coverage has been adopted. water kiosks. I. It is expected that the increase in population within the planning period coupled with increase in water supply coverage through increased number of households served by individual connections will result to huge investment needs to facilitate the implementation of new water connections.g. either through individual connections or through communal water points / water kiosks / water vendors.493m /day. The Gross Water Demand based on 80% Individual Connections in Year 2035 is 3 1.B.343.517.086. This is estimated to remain constant within the planning period upto year 2035.No Individual Connection 2010 3. A low per capita rate of 30l/c/d has been adopted for low income earners with no individual connections. It is therefore recommended that future financing to increase Nairobi City Water Supply situation should incorporate the need to incorporate the new water connections to ensure equitable water supply to the residents especially in the low income areas. whereas based on 90% Individual Connections in Year 2035 the Gross Water 3 Demand increases marginally to 1. For the low income earners.615 6% 50% 9% 35% 65% 2017 4.314.903 6% 50% 24% 20% 80% Overall.Individual Connection NIC . water vendors etc. year 2035 as new interventions to meet forecasted water demand are developed.000 new connections will be required annually due to increased population and water supply coverage.800 6% 50% 16% 28% 72% 2030 6. it has been estimated that all the households in the informal settlement get water from NCWSC with only 9% getting water through individual connections while the rest obtain through other means e. The connection ratio in the low income areas is however expected to increase within the planning period from the present 9% to 24% by year 2035 as shown Table E5 below.466 6% 50% 12% 32% 68% 2020 4.257. the population served by the public network (NCWSC) through individual connections presently stands at 65% and is expected to increase to 80% at the ultimate planning period. It has been estimated that the high and medium income population have 100% water supply coverage by the public (NCWSC) network and are served by individual water connections. A sensitivity of Individual Connections to increase from 65% to 90% by the Year 2035 has also been analysed. Patel & Partners Executive Summary In the water demand calculations.

44% Income Distribution Medium Income .314.5% 7.206 582.666.3.138.647 3.912 728.493 1.615 3.578 3.417 2035 1.063.517.448.351 756.479 Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario 2030 1.515 2.2% 4.213.0% 7.452 1.762 3.445 3.B.783.488 583.369 Figure E2: Water Demand for High.453 2.107.0% 6.910 2.260.438. Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Nairobi City AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 7 Version 02 .6% Population Served by Public Water Service Provider (Individual Connections) Year 2010 2017 2020 2030 2035 Percentage as I.5% 2035 6.800 3.674 1.104 Year 2009 Nairobi City Census Population .9% 4.903 3.126.322 850.401 3.5% Low Income .928 740.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.Cs 65% 68% 72% 78% 80% Water Demand Forecast.816 3.035.257.7% 2020 4.4% 4.50% High Income .198. I.398.466 3.687.555. Patel & Partners Executive Summary Table E6: Water Demand Forecast – Nairobi City Population Projections Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate 2010 3.6% 3.293 802.1% 4.6% 2030 5.6% 6.9% 2017 4.8% 3.250.338 3.086.053.193.797 1.984 3. m3/d 2010 2017 2020 581.870 823.

Patel & Partners Executive Summary Table E7: Water Demand Forecast .053 3.534 3. m3/d 2010 2017 2020 685.401.404.774.538.B.9% 9.Cs 53% 56% 62% 72% 76% Water Demand Forecast.6% 2030 8.522 886.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.415 1.127 2.949 4.230 1.9% 4.194 Year 2009 Nairobi City plus Envelop Areas Census Population .6% Population Served by Public Water Service Provider (Individual Connections) Year 2010 2017 2020 2030 2035 Percentage as I.3% 6.4% 10.591.134 3.117.510.037.366.637 4.163 4.416.391.125 1.2% 12.236145 Figure E3: Water Demand for High.4.52% High Income .424 4.621.188 1.464 3.037 942.098.923.443.3% 4.356 3.282 4.42% Income Distribution Medium Income .435.823 Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario 2030 1.603.299 2.7% 6.182.7% 2020 6.5% 5.921 2.598 4.882 2035 1.217 908.811.707.262 1.057.675 3.3% 2035 9.052 3. I.312 1.7% 2017 5.9% Low Income .000.6% 10.Nairobi City Plus Envelop Areas Population Projections Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate 2010 4.001.015 687.235.0% 6. Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Nairobi & Envelop Areas AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 8 Version 02 .721 689.

but this older data is held in archives in manuscript form. but this was late into the project. it is impossible to verify the accuracy of river gauge readings recorded during this time. Since 1992. Howard Humphreys prepared all the reports. The digitised database does not include the very early historic data. 4. may also record daily rainfall. Hence.1 Surface Water Assessment Background Reports on Hydrology All available documentation in regard to the hydrology of potential sources for the Study area has been reviewed. The WRMA data can be obtained subject to their payment terms. AWSB 4. based on the natural drainage basins.2 Responsibility for Measurement of Water Resources The measurement of water resources is the responsibility of the Water Resources Management Authority (WRMA). Other stakeholders. and in some cases these records are submitted to Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) in Nairobi. Potentially. The Kenya Meteorological Department in Nairobi maintains a centralised rainfall database. WRMA was formed under Section 7 of the Water Act 2002. eighteen years of additional data could have been collected since that time. there is greater assurance about river flow data quality as during this period Howard Humphreys were employed to prepare hydrological yearbooks and reports. The water resources investigated under this Study fall within two of the six WRMA regions. Up to date rainfall and river flow was requested.3 Water Resources Data Obtained for the Study The previous published reports presented monthly data up to 1992. The Athi Water Services Board also commissioned BRLi/Seureca for consultancy services for “hydrological study and water management of the Ngethu-Sasumua system”. WRMA has de-centralised data collection to regional offices. and because of the infrequency of visits to gauging stations. Patel & Partners Executive Summary 4 4. during which period the stations were closely monitored. There are numerous gaps in the available raw data. WRMA has taken over data formerly collected by the Ministry of Water Development. the data can only be used with caution. Missing documents have been listed. 2008)”. Since 1998. Various reports dating from the 1960s document the water resources available for the City of Nairobi. and has largely been obtained. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 9 Version 02 . These included instances of blatant fabrication of data by gauge readers. From 1984-92.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. I. namely Athi River Catchment Area. which may be purchased. The country has been divided into six regions. and the data has not been subjected to quality checking by either KMD or WRMA. the national river gauging effort has declined. and is “the lead agency in prudent water resources management in Kenya (WRMA. there has been no update on water resources availability. The results and findings from this study have been adopted under the surface water assessment for water source options for Nairobi. WRMA collects river flow data. such as schools and private estates. and Tana River Catchment Area. Previous reports in connection with the Third Nairobi Water Supply Project reported many quality problems with the river gauge data collected up until 1984. The last report dealing with water resources is dated 1998. and rainfall data from selected stations.B.

The ACA includes the Aberdare National Park and the gazetted Forest Reserves that surround the National Park. Unfortunately. Hence the sustainability of the surface water sources arising from the ACA is assured under current Government policy. notably the Mau Forest. These areas are all under Government protection through Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) and Kenya Forest Service (KFS). On the other hand. 4. subject to control of abstractions. and some stations no longer file returns to KMD. Many of the river flow measurement gauges are located near to the boundary of the ACA. rise within the Aberdare Conservation Area (ACA). The data was then infilled and extended through a process of cross-gauge correlation. notably the Howard Humphreys studies (which worked with data to 1992. 4. 4. The results were presented in Working Paper No.5 The Eastern Aberdare Rivers – Sustainable Surface Water Sources The Eastern Aberdare Rivers of interest to this Study. Manuscript data from the field was requested but the recording books were not located. as has been recorded in other national forests.B.4 Rainfall Analysis Rainfall analysis has been performed. and hence the flows measured recently are less likely to be adversely affected by upstream abstractions. The selected river gauges are close to the forest boundary. including an assessment of long term rainfall changes over the past 100 years at two stations for which earlier manuscript annual data was obtained from reports. but will be strengthened. Although there are quality concerns with data collected since that time. The previous two decades are drier than average at some stations. The flow duration index of low flow was selected for this purpose.6 Preliminary River Flow Data Analysis AWSB The river flow database from WRMA was analysed initially in its raw state in spite of the numerous missing data gaps. data has not been returned to KMD since 1992 for two of the four key rain gauges selected for rainfall runoff modelling of the Northern Collector Rivers. our analysis shows no change to the hydrology of the Northern Collector Rivers for which data was obtained. It can reasonably be assumed that the “protected area” status will not only be maintained by the Government. and was believed representative of naturalised flows in many of the rivers studied. The annual rainfall totals continue to follow the long-term trend of average annual rainfall. catchment conditions appear stable. This started in the mid 1950s. see Table E8 on page 10). the data from that time was believed to provide a useful and applicable benchmark for monitoring hydrological change in these rivers. Patel & Partners Executive Summary Up to date rainfall data was hard to obtain. as the catchments have been protected.2. Hence.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. and continued through to the early 1970s. as KMD is not current with its data entry processing. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 10 Version 02 . This low flow index was proposed by the previous studies. The results of this Study’s flow duration are comparable with previous studies. The river flow data up to the early 1980s was not prone to the effects of upstream water supply abstractions. especially through the extensive establishment of smallholder tea plantations. These areas are not subject to catchment degradation through settlement and forest clearance. the early data is not representative as catchment land usage went through significant change. and hence provides a useful basis for comparison. Since that time. I.

436 0.562 0. 1946-77 data 4. attention needs to be paid to plans by WRMA to authorise further abstractions within the ACA.3 2 1.917 1. especially where the rivers originate from the “protected area” that comprises the Aberdare Conservation Area (ACA). HH. 1946-92 data 4. and these were used by the WEAP Model to derive the total system combined yield. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 11 Version 02 . Table 4.3 2 1992-2010 32. 4. Hydrology Review.291 95 percentile flow m3/sec 90 percentile flow m3/sec 75 percentile flow m /sec 50 percentile flow m3/sec 25 percentile flow m3/sec 10 percentile flow m /sec 5 percentile flow m3/sec 3 3 3 4 5 1 1970-1992 32. Chania-Thika Study. Appendix A. has reached a similar conclusion concerning the hydrology of the Chania and Thika rivers.095 4. HH.7 Separate Hydrological Study of Sasumua and Negthu System AWSB The separate study by another Athi Water Services Board Consultant. Analysis carried out by EBI/MIBP JV 3.610 0. the Consultant BRLi/Seureca stated that the hydrology of their study rivers was “confirmed”. BRLi/Seureca. 1979. and Chania Rivers. Hydrology.358 Notes: 1. 1946-1984 data 2. These rivers have similar hydrological conditions to the Eastern Aberdare and Northern Collector rivers in this Study. including the Sasumua Dam system.457 1. Flow sequences were provided for the Kimakia. I. and the Ngethu system (which includes various rivers and Thika Dam). Patel & Partners Executive Summary Table E8: RGS 4CB5 – Flow Duration for Different Periods Analysed RGS 4CB5 Area km2 Previous Studies 32. This “confirmation” supports the findings of this Study.313 Average Daily Flow m3/sec 1.346 1.637 3. In particular. Kiama. and in their recent presentation. 1995. HH. as this will reduce available yield. HH.3 1.3. Long Term Development Plan. 1946-84 data 5. Short Term Plan to 1995. Hydrology Appendix C.404 0. Stage 1 Report. In a very recent Interim Report.306 0. This means that previously published hydrology findings can be applied with some confidence.373 0.B.453 0.886 1.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.8 “Confirmation” of Hydrology The current analysis has confirmed the hydrology of the rivers in the basin. This separate study covers the southern-most Rivers of the Eastern Aberdares. Part 2B.7.640 3.804 0. in the Chania – Thika catchments.322 4.447 0.

The previous reliability criterion is more severe. The WRMA water abstraction permit database for the study area was obtained. together with different compensation flow release scenarios (see chapter presenting WEAP Model results). FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 12 Version 02 . but it is hard to work with. This would normally be provided through the national database of licensed abstractions. Hence the total downstream release is 2xQ95. and the flow sequences have not been “naturalised”. and would assume that the license restrictions are complied with.3% in the catchment areas as against 3% for Kenya nation-wide).9 WRMA River Abstraction Data The WRMA river flow data is raw.B. which proposes to abstract 0. There are also plans to install new intakes within the ACA to abstract for water supply. Hence. as most of the abstraction licenses are not geo-referenced. Murang’a Water Supply Project. At these gauge locations. A full analysis of the effects of the differing definitions is undertaken using the WEAP Model.28 m /sec from the N. In the case of the Northern Collector Rivers. and these abstraction rates can be quantified with some certainty. is well below the national growth rate (0. the 95% exceedence flow is assumed to be the basic minimum that must be released to meet ecological needs. 2010). with target timelines dating until the year 2013.11 Conclusion on Yields The definition of reliability adopted by previous studies differs from the definition adopted in this study. In this study. and the results are presented elsewhere in this report. the compensation flow requirements will be marginally higher today. and that there are no unlicensed abstractions. in the catchment areas of the northern collector rivers. 4. but the full impact during low flow periods would be minimal if the water abstraction permits specify that 90 days of storage must be provided for use during low flow periods. Patel & Partners Executive Summary 4. The growth rate of population during the intercensal period 1999 – 2009. is subject to quality assessment. The WEAP Model has been used in this study to test the effect of different downstream release assumptions.10 WRMA Compensation Flow Release Rules WRMA’s Catchment Management Strategy for the Athi River Catchment includes many targets and strategic actions. naturalisation is less of a problem where the river gauges are close to the gazetted forest boundary. thereby having a nominal effect on the yield that is available to the Nairobi Water Supply or any other requirements. and unlicensed abstractions have not yet been captured. The Northern Collector river gross yields have not changed since the studies reported in 1998. Flow naturalisation requires accurate records of upstream river diversions. AWSB 4. Irrigation demands may have increased. WRMA is currently working nation-wide to update the national database of licensed water abstractions. This means that upstream abstractions have not been added back in order to provide the “natural” catchment response to rainfall. An 3 example is the proposed Murang’a Water Supply. The rural water demands have been analysed.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. I.Mathioya River. there are very few upstream abstraction intakes. A further flow release equivalent to the 95% exceedence flow is added to cater for downstream needs. from an intake within the forest (Howard Humphreys.

The 1986 yield assessments were reduced by Howard Humphreys compared to the earlier estimate.06 m /sec). and will also increase sediment runoff. BRLi/Seureca have presented an inflow simulation based on the 1946-2010 data.4 m /sec from the river upstream. the main river gauging station not far upstream of the dam. 3 • • • • • • AWSB 4. In the steep red soil catchments characteristic of the Study Area. This is contrary to the Water Act of 2002 that forbids unlicensed utilisation of riparian areas. The mean annual inflow (MAI) derived from the 1977-2010 data (2. or that unit runoff has since increased slightly due to rainfall or increasing intensity of land usage in the cultivated catchment areas. I. Patel & Partners Executive Summary 4.B. A field inspection of rivers shows that land pressure is resulting in farmers increasingly utilising the riparian zones. including forbidding tillage and cultivation. The ecological impact of the reduced compensation flow is uncertain.. Hence the protection of the riparian zone in these catchments is crucial. thereafter impacted the low flows into the dam.42 m /sec). The inflows are based on a known correlation between inflow and RGS 4CB5. It is conceivable that the 1984 drought record may have overly influenced the analysis. This impact can be visually seen in the time series for RGS 4CB5. the “standard contributing area” (runoff coefficient for standard grassed area) for floods is only 11% of the catchment area (TRRL. which abstracts 3 about 0. RGS 4CB5 is one of the few stations for which data to the year 2009 was available for this study. The Thika dam data is very relevant for hydrological analysis and findings for the dam are interesting: • The commissioning of the Kandara Water Supply in the early 1980s. the early studies produced conservative estimates of hydrological yield for this dam. and two critical drawdown periods have been recorded. as this comprises a significant part of the “contributing area”. From a hydrological perspective. In conclusion. Their figures are comparable with this Study’s findings. the longest lasting up to 33 months.42 m /sec) is higher 3 than the 1979 Stage 1 Report estimate of 2. but were halved in 2009. 1976). and the yield has not declined. It is also higher than the 1986 3 Long Term Development Plan estimate (2. as agreed between AWSB and WRMA. and records were obtained. This was based on consideration of the 1984 drought. The results from this study and from the BRLi/Seureca study are very similar. and both studies confirm the previous hydrology. The dam has performed. The compensation flow releases from Thika Dam downstream have been adhered to.22 m /sec.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. The later studies are comparable with the very earliest studies. but is identical to the 1998 3 Northern Corridor Feasibility Report assessment (2. interference with riparian zones will lead to increasing runoff.13 River Yields and Catchment Management The 1986 studies reduced yields compared to their earlier studies.12 Thika Dam Yields The dam inflows and outflows are measured by the Nairobi City Water & Sewerage Company. to take account of the “1984 drought record”. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 13 Version 02 .

in accordance with a Ministerial directive to restore indigenous vegetation.) when appropriate. The different scenarios have been tested in the WEAP Model results presented elsewhere.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. However. and the impact these have on surface water resource availability.14 Further Work and Climate Change Modelling The WRMA database has been infilled and extended through cross-gauge correlation. and the Government has issued cautionary advertisements in the press to state that eucalyptus does not diminish water resources.B. The naturally swampy riverbank riparian zones act as a sponge. The sediment runoff in the Upper Tana catchment is being studied in detail by a study commissioned by WRMA (Antonaropoulos & Karavokyris. rainfall roof harvesting. all supplies are created to a common standard for potable water supply. The previous hydrology was comprehensive. thereby reducing flood peaks and the associated erosion. there are negative impacts arising from the denudation that is resulting. waste water treatment.2. new water sources and facilities increase the reliability and security of water supply for Nairobi and satellite towns through: optimal use of the existing facilities. holding water for subsequent release. The drainage of the riparian zones to create grazing adjacent to rivers is an especial concern. particular attention is needed by the Administration to prevent the increasing cultivation and drainage of the critically important riparian zones. AWSB The impacts of climate change will be explored through the WEAP Water Balance Model. diversification of water sources (surface water. and the BRLi/Seureca study “confirmed” the hydrology. This study is establishing a monitoring network for sedimentation in existing dams. etc. They also provide habitat for natural swamp vegetation. This is commendable insofar as the restoration of an indigenous riparian zone is concerned. increase of surface water storage sources. I. 5 • • • • Water Resources Development Strategy all water supply demands are fully met up to the 2035 horizon. but the results do not alter the previous findings reported in Working Paper No. This exercise is separate from the analysis reported in this Hydrology report. and the analysis in this report is in agreement. and also slows down the entry of the surface runoff to the river. The swamp vegetation filters surface storm runoff. as is popularly perceived. Patel & Partners Executive Summary Our field inspections have revealed the ongoing removal of Eucalyptus (gum) trees from riparian zones. The study has reported that there has been no substantial change in the Thika Dam storage as a result of sedimentation. 2010). development of new water sources is considered. Care must be taken not to create large denuded areas. The strategy for Nairobi and Satellite Towns’ Water Supply shall ensure that: FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 14 Version 02 . In addition. groundwater. The key factors to be rationalised in determining net yield are water demand from rivers. The analysis has then been repeated. 4.

2. Efforts to reduce to minimum level the physical water losses along the systems (intakes. 5. to reduce costs and optimize the operation. 10.) 8. The water sources development strategy should make the optimal use of the existing facilities (reservoirs. (ii) limiting or avoiding pumping requirements and maximize gravity transmission. water treatment works. interconnection and expansion. through a staged investment process. and (iv) best use of existing water system infrastructure through rehabilitation/upgrading. 3. treatment works. 6. Independent water schemes should be preferred for the satellite towns when local surface or groundwater water sources are available. distribution schemes. The strategy should propose the diversification of water sources and the development of schemes providing more safety and operational flexibility. transmission pipes. 2. 4. 7. (iii) optimizing dam reservoir size and dam location. AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 15 Version 02 . Consistent phasing of investments: any new step in the development of new sources. The above principles compose the strategy adopted for the development of new water sources for Nairobi Water Supply. The water sources development strategy should meet the growing demand for water supply up to year 2035. Water tapping from the main transmission lines to Nairobi City water scheme for local needs should be avoided or limited to the maximum in case no sufficient local source is identified. Patel & Partners Executive Summary - Development of local or combined water supply systems for satellite towns and generally speaking promoting the use of local water resources to provide drinking water to people near the source. promote the steady development of boreholes to tap groundwater. transmission lines. should be consistent with the previous ones and with the next planned steps. the following key principles have been considered for preparing the long term development strategy: 1. downstream uses and environmental flow).B.). agriculture & livestock. promote alternative water sources such as rainwater roof harvesting. etc. I. To meet these broad strategic objectives. 9. Diversification of sources: 1. 11. Limit or avoid when possible competition between water uses on the water source (hydropower production.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Priority to be given to scenarios with less social and environmental impacts. 12. etc. Small water production schemes for Nairobi City should be limited in order to avoid complexification of the Water Supply systems. Minimize the cost of the new water sources facilities through (i) limiting the length of water distribution.

Diversion from S. from Maragua 4 Dam or from both. in the proposed scenarios this is a first step for the implementation of Northern Collector Phase II. • • FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 16 Version 02 . While preparing the related Development Scenarios for the mobilisation of new water sources the Consultant followed the principles established for the strategy. The proposed scenarios involve the combination in different manners and following various implementation schedules of the following water resources and main water schemes for the infrastructure (diversion / storage / treatment / transmission / etc. Four (4) main Scenarios have been established. These scenarios have been prepared in view to meet the water demand of Nairobi City up to year 2035 without considering the surrounding areas (Envelope) for which other local water resources will be considered based on the proposed strategy. Northern Collector Phase II either connected to Northern Collector Phase I to supplement supply to Thika reservoir or to Maragua 4 reservoir. data collection and processing the Consultant selected the new main sources to be mobilised to meet the projected water demand. Diversion and transfer from Chania River to Komu River to supplement Ndarugu 1 reservoir. then treated water is pumped to Gigiri Reservoir. • • • AWSB The mobilisation of additional water resources will require additional water transmission facilities towards Nairobi City.1 Proposed Scenarios Based on the Consultant’s review of previous studies and on its own analyses. Patel & Partners Executive Summary 6 Building Development Scenarios The planning for Future Development of Water Resources for Nairobi and the Satellite Towns involves a comparison between known sources availability and projected water demands. Ndarugu 1 Dam on Ndarugu River. to Thika reservoir.): • • Northern Collector Phase I with two sub-alternatives (whole collector from Maragua R. These facilities are linked to new water treatment facilities with characteristics depending of each scenario and variant as follows: • New Water Treatment Works located in Ndunyu Chege: could be supplied either from Thika Dam via the second offtake. or only from Irati R. 6. then the treated water could supplied to Kabete Reservoir per gravity New Water Treatment Works in Ndarugu. Downstream the treated water would be transferred to Gigiri Reservoir New High-Level Water Treatment Works located at Ngorongo: it would be supplied from Thika Dam second offtake by gravity.B. I.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. to Thika reservoir). Mathioya to Maragua River either to supplement the Northern Collector Phase I then Thika reservoir or to Maragua 4 reservoir.

Phase 5: Ndarugu 1 Dam with natural inflow. Phase 6: Transfer from Chania River to Komu River to supplement inflow to Ndarugu Reservoir. Phase 3: Maragua 4 Dam and South Mathioya River transfer to Maragua River. Phase 4: Northern Collector Phase II to S. AWSB • Scenario 4: • • • • • • Phase 1: Wellfields development in Kiunyu then in Ruiru areas. Phase 2: Northern Collector Phase I (from Irati River only) to Thika Reservoir.B. Phase 5: Ndarugu 1 Dam with natural inflow. Phase 6: Transfer from Chania River to Komu River to supplement natural inflow to Ndarugu 1 Reservoir. Phase 6: Transfer from Chania River to Komu River to supplement inflow to Ndarugu 1 Reservoir. I. Patel & Partners Executive Summary The proposed four Scenarios and related sequences of development are briefly described in the following sections: • Scenario 1: • • • • • • • Phase 1: Well fields development in Kiunyu then in Ruiru areas. Phase 2: Northern Collector Phase I to Thika reservoir. Phase 5: Transfer from Chania River to Komu River to supplement inflow to Ndarugu 1 Reservoir. Phase 4: Ndarugu 1 Dam with natural inflow.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Phase 3: Northern Collector Phase II to NCI and Thika Reservoir. Phase 5: Ndarugu 1 Dam with natural inflow. Phase 4: Northern Collector Phase II to S. Phase 3: Maragua 4 Dam and transfer from South Mathioya River to Maragua River. • Scenario 3: • • • • • • Phase 1: Well fields development in Kiunyu then in Ruiru areas. Phase 2: Northern Collector Phase I to Thika Reservoir. Phase 3: Maragua 4 Dam and South Mathioya River transfer to NCI and Thika Reservoir. Phase 2: Northern Collector Phase I to Thika Reservoir. Phase 4: Northern Collector Phase II beyond South Mathioya River connected to Maragua 4 Reservoir. Scenario 2: • • • • • Phase 1: Well fields development in Kiunyu then in Ruiru areas. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 17 Version 02 . Mathioya River to supplement inflow to Maragua Reservoir. Mathioya River and to Maragua Reservoir.

The main figures are as follows: • • Raw water demand estimated at about 583.B.000 m /day (year 2010) and slightly 3 increasing to about 594.000 m /day (or 8.315. the requirement 3 3 for new resources mobilisation is estimated to be about 720. Any faster implementation of NCI would reduce the duration of the deficit. because the complete process for studying and implementing Northern Collector I and related downstream facilities (first step for transmission to Ndunyu Chege or Ngorongo.000 m /day (year 2010) increasing to 3 1. I. Water Treatment Works (WTW). This WTW will also receive flow from Maragua 4 Reservoir (Scenario 1 and 3) and from Northen Collector Phase II through Maragua Reservoir (Scenario 1). Alternative Scenarios 1a and 3a: the transmission line from the second offtake of Thika Dam will feed another new WTW to be built at Ngorongo (Ruiru Junction). the Water Resources availability and expected yields of the proposed facilities under the various scenarios considered a preliminary water balance was prepared for each of the contemplated scenarios. 3 3 • AWSB 3 The present water resources availability is based on the assumption that the current rehabilitation works on the existing production / transmission facilities will allow coming back to the full design capacity for these structures.000 m /day (year 2035) due to the steady development of groundwater supply scattered within Nairobi The water deficit was estimated to be about 14. Patel & Partners Executive Summary The mid-term phases under Scenarios 1 and 3 can be implemented following two different alternatives: • Basic Scenarios 1 and 3: additional outflow from Thika is supplied to Gigiri Reservoir through new Water Treatment Works located in Ndunyu Chege. Ndunyu Chege WTW will be constructed later on either for the system Maragua 4 supplemented by NCII (Scenario 1a) or Maragua 4 plus the surplus from NCI + NCII (Scenario 3a). All contemplated scenarios were designed to meet the raw water demand at the Project horizon. • 6. this plant will provide treated water per gravity to Kabete Reservoir. transmission from WTW to Gigiri or Kabete Reservoirs) would require an estimated period of six years some deficit is still expected for all scenarios until beginning of year 2016.000 m /day (year 2035) Existing water resources providing about 569. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 18 Version 02 .000 m /day in year 2010.3 m /s) in year 2035. However.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.2 Summary Water Balance for Contemplated Scenarios Considering the results of the Water Demand Projections.

000 181.240 138.10 181.232 50.000 37% 1.53 2030 6.560 30.232 55.560 Wellfield in Ruiru (2015) 0.240 138.056 216. the rest to Gigiri m /s m /d Wellfield in Kiunyu (2014) 0.000 21.240 138.000 21.768 -0.000 443.000 574.41 4.000 56.240 28.240 28.512 28.240 28.668 -1.000 56.257.512 133.000 181.700 740.512 S.240 138.900 823.240 138.240 28.152 2025 34.314.240 38.440 70.768 -56.268 -2.056 216.056 216.240 138.268 -8.056 216.000 584.000 21.000 -13.000 56.000 443.000 594.560 30.400 37% 37% 37% 37% 37% 583.22 4.552 2030 34.240 Northern Collector Tunnel Phase I to Thika Dam (2016) 1.512 133.33 28. Mathioya Transfer to Maragua Dam (2018) 0.232 -164.512 133. including Physical Water Losses) YEAR Population Projections (Nairobi City) 3 TOTAL Net Water Demand (m /day) Physical Water Losses (%) 3 TOTAL Water Demand (m /day) 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 3.440 3 Remaining surplus / deficit (m /day): (1a) Wellfields + NC I + Maragua Dam + S.512 28. but Transmission to Kabete Reservoirs via Ngorongo T.560 30.517.560 30.000 443.6m /s).107.240 28.000 695.500 Available Water Resources (m /day): Kikuyu springs Ruiru Dam Sasumua Dam Thika / Chania / Ngethu System 3 Groundwater Sources (assumed to increase by 1.232 -390.60 138.240 28.370 4.232 60. Mathioya Transfer to Maragua Dam + NC II + Ndarugu Dam + Chania-Komu Transfer 3 3 m /d Transmission to Gigiri Reservoirs via Ndunyu Chege T.368 427.800 603.560 30.000 56.512 S.Egis Bceom International in association with MIBP Executive Summary Table E9: Scenarios for Resources Mobilisation Schemes – Water balances NAIROBI WATER SUPPLY MASTER PLAN Selected Scenarios for Mobilisation of New Water Sources Water Demand for Nairobi City (based on Medium Population Growth Rate.232 -720.560 30.83 4.512 28.50 216.54 133.560 30.440 70.000 443.240 138.000 589.512 Northern Collector Tunnel Phase II to Maragua Dam (2021) 1.850.232 65.40 34.512 2.91 4.512 Northern Collector Tunnel Phase II to Maragua Dam (2021) 1.33 28.000 21.232 -244.000 21.668 2015 34.512 28.232 -13.560 30.000 56. Works (1.000 443.468 -1.240 3 Maragua Dam (33Mm ) (2018) 0.440 3 Remaining surplus / deficit (m /day): AWSB 4.33 28.512 133.512 28.796 2.000 576.615 3. Mathioya Transfer to Maragua Dam (2018) 0.10 181.512 28.000 569.560 30. Works m /s Wellfield in Kiunyu (2014) 0.512 133.568 -6.35 30.000 21.063.000 56.240 138.152 71.232 45.968 -4.500 975.232 -537.056 71.512 28.138.903 963.100 509.000 443.000 56.240 2017 34.796 2020 34.240 3 Maragua Dam (33Mm ) (2018) 0. Mathioya Transfer to Maragua Dam + NC II + Ndarugu Dam + Chania-Komu Transfer 3 3 3 Ditto.33 28.54 133.466 4.560 30.000 2035 34.34 Capacity / Yield 2010 2015 34.60 138.560 Wellfield in Ruiru (2015) 0.40 34.560 30.800 2035 7.240 Northern Collector Tunnel Phase I to Thika Dam (2016) 1.366 according to Census 4.240 28.086.056 3 Ndarugu Dam (300Mm ) with Natural Inflow (2026) 2.16 4.232 52.800 5.000 Ndarugu Dam + Chania-Komu Transfer (2032) 2.000 Ndarugu Dam + Chania-Komu Transfer (2032) 2.372 15.768 2010 -56.000 579.240 28.200 Data Sources: MWI Standards.240 138.50 216.240 2020 34.237.240 15.668 38.512 28.401 825.372 2017 34.512 133.232 -121.292 2035 34.560 30.000 21.240 138. 2009 Census and Consultant's analyses 2009 Population is 3.000 443.512 2025 34.300 714.126.292 -13.000m /day per year) Total Available Water Resources (m /day): 3 Expected Water Deficit (m /day): 3 Expected Water Deficit (m /s): Additional Water Resources based on Alternative Mobilisations Schemes: 3 3 (1) Wellfields + NC I + Maragua Dam + S.232 70.056 3 Ndarugu Dam (300Mm ) with Natural Inflow (2026) 2.552 FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 19 Version 02 .056 2030 34.500 37% 1.700 542.35 30.

240 138.240 47.000 181.520 30.028 Deficit 32.560 30.440 31.560 30.240 138.240 51.440 77.560 30.412 2035 34.204 2035 34.240 138.232 216.000 181.640 120.240 138.520 30.532 2020 34.640 43.560 30.200 88.240 119.128 216.240 51.240 138.000 181.75 2.240 151.240 119.272 2025 34.560 30.35 1.000 181.240 51.200 216.668 2015 34.840 116.232 -56.240 47.240 51.240 138.128 216.000 78.532 2020 34.520 30.040 Surplus 2035 34.240 119.50 Ndarugu Dam + Chania-Komu Transfer (2032) 2.668 -120.000 181.520 30.000 -56.440 41.35 Northern Collector Tunnel Phase I to Thika Dam (2016) 1.240 119.000 -48. Mathioya Transfer + NC II + Ndarugu Dam + Chania-Komu Transfer 3 m /s Wellfield in Kiunyu (2014) 0.560 30.232 216.50 2.768 2010 m /d 34.240 138.560 30.560 30.520 30.640 43.40 Wellfield in Ruiru (2015) 0.520 30. Mathioya Transfer to Thika Dam + Maragua Dam + NC II + Ndarugu Dam + Chania-Komu Transfer 3 3 Ditto.200 216.240 38.440 77.38 3 Ndarugu Dam (300Mm ) with Natural Inflow (2026) 2.560 30.240 38.240 151.240 138.560 30.240 151.560 30.240 119.240 47.40 Wellfield in Ruiru (2015) 0.232 216.672 2030 34.000 189.240 138.240 138.240 47.128 216.000 43.128 216.240 9.35 Northern Collector Tunnel Phase II to Thika Dam (2022) 1. Works m /s Wellfield in Kiunyu (2014) 0.560 30.60 1.240 47.372 2017 34.240 138.240 119.200 88.520 30.35 Northern Collector Tunnel Phase I to Thika Dam (2016) 1.35 Northern Collector Tunnel Phase I (Irati) to Thika Dam (2016) 0.10 m3/d 34.240 119.240 AWSB -56.Egis Bceom International in association with MIBP Executive Summary NAIROBI WATER SUPPLY MASTER PLAN Selected Scenarios for Mobilisation of New Water Sources (2) Wellfields + NC I + NC II to Thika Dam + Ndarugu Dam + Chania-Komu Transfer Wellfield in Kiunyu (2014) Wellfield in Ruiru (2015) Northern Collector Tunnel Phase I to Thika Dam (2016) Northern Collector Tunnel Phase II to Thika Dam (2018) 3 Ndarugu Dam (300Mm ) with Natural Inflow (2024) Ndarugu Dam + Chania-Komu Transfer (2031) 3 2010 m3/s 0.640 43.560 30.560 30.240 138.232 216. Mathioya Transfer to Thika Dam (2018) 0.200 9.768 3 3 2015 34.560 30.064 2025 34.6 + 1.10 3 Remaining surplus / deficit (m /day): (4) NC I (Irati) + Maragua Dam with Natural Inflow + S.640 43.440 -13.464 2030 34.50 Ndarugu Dam + Chania-Komu Transfer (2032) 2.2m /s).000 179.212 Legend: (2016) facilities start operating FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 20 Version 02 .240 47.240 2020 34.204 2035 34.240 47.200 216.60 3 Maragua Dam (33Mm ) with Natural Inflow (2018) 1.200 88.50 Northern Collector Tunnel Phase II to Maragua Dam (2022) 1.240 138.240 36.560 30.240 38.560 30.240 138.668 2015 34.972 2020 34.840 116.240 51.464 2030 34.40 0.640 43.240 151.840 116.200 2025 34.50 Ndarugu Dam + Chania-Komu Transfer (2031) 2.560 30.000 78.55 3 Maragua Dam (33Mm ) (2018) 0.064 2025 34.240 138.240 51.35 Northern Collector Tunnel Phase II to Thika Dam (2022) 1.372 2017 34.372 2017 34. Mathioya Transfer to Maragua Dam (2018) 0. but Transmission to Kabete Reservoirs via Ngorongo T.240 138.780 Remaining surplus / deficit (m /day): (3) Wellfields + NC I + S.520 30.240 47.232 216.240 119.55 3 Maragua Dam (33Mm ) (2018) 0. the rest to Gigiri m /s Wellfield in Kiunyu (2014) 0.240 109.768 2010 m3/d 34.38 3 Ndarugu Dam (300Mm ) with Natural Inflow (2026) 2.560 30.000 32. Mathioya Transfer to Thika Dam (2018) 0.560 30.668 2015 34.840 116.10 3 Remaining surplus / deficit (m /day): (3a) Wellfields + NC I + S.440 -13.240 2017 34.560 30.560 30.440 -13.768 2010 m /d 34.240 47.560 30.840 36.560 30.240 138.560 30.240 47.560 30.520 30.40 Wellfield in Ruiru (2015) 0.200 216. Mathioya Transfer to Thika Dam + Maragua Dam + NC II + Ndarugu Dam + Chania-Komu Transfer 3 Transmission to Gigiri Reservoirs via Ndunyu Chege T.440 -13.240 151.560 30.560 30.000 181.60 S.35 S.000 181.02 3 Ndarugu Dam (300Mm ) with Natural Inflow (2024) 2.60 S.520 30.10 3 Remaining surplus / deficit (m /day): -56.200 88.240 138.232 2030 34.000 181.840 116.232 216. Works (1.

Treatment Works and Transmission Line: Pumping station from Ndarugu to WTP.) which were designed at preliminary level for the purpose of this review report. The preliminary implementation schedules of facilities for each of the contemplated scenarios were established including: additional surveys and investigations. • Chania River to Komu River Transfer: weir. Intake. Hembe shaft. tunnel.3km long Tunnel. treatment works.3 Scenarios Components The proposed scenarios were built by combining several works components as part of the selected schemes (dams. diversion weirs. All activities are expected to start early in the Year 2012. 6. check dam. the present comparison based on advantages and disadvantages of the different scenarios highlights significant disadvantages for Scenario 4 while other scenarios are more consistent with the proposed approach.Egis Bceom International in association with MIBP Executive Summary 6. Transmission line from WTP to Gigiri. • Raw Water Gravity Main from Thika Dam to Ndunyu Chege Treatment Works • Ndunyu Chege Treatment Works and Transmission Line: transmission line from Maragua to Ndunyu Chege WTP.4km long Tunnel. Ndarugu WTP. Costing and Implementation Schedule for Selected Scenarios For the proposed scenarios. spillway. North Mathioya Weirs and Intakes. Transmission Line to Gigiri Reservoir. • Raw Water Transmission Line from Thika Second Offtake to Ngorongo High Level Water Treatment Works • Ngorongo High Level Water Treatment Works. Githugi Adit. Kaanja access. works tendering process. a preliminary design at identification level (without field investigations) was studied for the various components involved (listed above). diversion of electric line. intake.5 Comparison of Contemplated Scenarios against the Development Strategy Objectives The advantages and disadvantages of the different development scenarios were evaluated considering the objectives of the water supply strategy. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 21 Version 02 . Outlet. commissioning. outlet. Intake. Intake. Irati shaft. Githugi. pumping plants. Gikigie and Irati weirs and Intakes. transmission line to WTP. pipelines. Maragua. Pumping station from WTP to Gigiri. AWSB 6. and Treated Water Gravity Main • Maragua 4 Dam: Dam. • South Mathioya Transfer: Weir. • Northern Collector Phase 2: 11. • Ndarugu 1 Dam: dam. design. figures were used to compute the related capital costs. Costing was done based on previous/on-going contracts for construction works in Kenya or the Consultant’s experience where no other data was available. work construction. South Mathioya. Spillway. Tunnel. diversion of sewerage line. tunnels. etc. Hembe. The full comparison of the different scenarios has been carried out on the basis of the multicriteria analysis. • Ndarugu Pumping Stations. Maragua Outlet.4 Preliminary Design. The main structures involved in the various components are as follows: • Northern Collector Phase 1: 11. impounding of reservoirs. etc. Makomboki Outfall. However. shafts.

Of the other scenarios considered.081.100.64 which has the lowest PV of costs.680. diversion weirs.00 Scenario 1a 98.00 1.360 922 $0.021.000.761.00 Scenario 3a 98. to US$ . For each investment subproject. Table E11: Least Costs Analysis of the Scenarios Discount factor 5% Present value of water outputs Mm3 Present value of costs (PVEC) MUSD Average incremental economic cost (AIEC) USDS/m3 Note: opportunity costs of hydropower not considered. = 1 US$ (June 2011) AWSB Notes: 1.90Kshs.65 $0.00 Scenario 2 86. Scenario 1 and Scenario 4 have a similar AIEC while Scenario 1A and Scenario 3 fall in between.000.00 958.044.310 930 $0. required additional water treatment works.000. When one sub-project requires the lifting of water (Ndarugu dam) capital expenditure and O&M costs for pumping are considered in the analysis.00 Scenario 3 97.1 Least Cost Analysis Comparison of Investment Scenarios A least cost analysis has been carried out to compare each of these potential water resources development scenarios.000.00 * Exchange Rate Kshs.920.00 1. (ii) raw water mains. 10% physical contingencies and 9% for engineering and works supervision 2.00 1.000. Costs and water outputs have been discounted over 2011 – 2035 using a discount factor of 12%.62/m .68 3A 1.265. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 22 Version 02 3 .372. Costs for additional service reservoirs and for distribution are not considered in the analysis and assumed similar for each scenario. tunnels.64 3 1. Kiambu).200.790.510.293 865 824 $0.00 1. Table E10: Capital Expenditure of Scenarios Scenario Capital Expenditure Capital Expenditure (Kshs.62 4 1.350.000.000. Kabete. but is similar to Scenario 2 at $0. based on estimated investment and O&M costs. Scenario 3A has the highest PV of costs. Capital Expenditure for each Scenario is given in Table E10 below. Table E11 below presents the summary of least cost analysis of the different scenarios.095. the opportunity cost of hydropower is not considered.324 1.537. No financial contingencies included.000.083. In this first analysis. treated water transmission mains up to the existing main reservoirs of Nairobi city (Gigiri. As each alternative provides a different raw water output.00 1.500. Note: opportunity costs of hydropower not considered. a normalization procedure has been applied to allow for comparison of costs of the scenarios for a similar water output.00 Scenario 4 94.500. (i) water resource infrastructure (dams.Egis Bceom International in association with MIBP Executive Summary 7 7.000. 1 1. Investments considered in the analysis include.381 850 $0.000.71 Scenario 3A has the lowest AIEC at $0. etc).000.900.621.348 956 $0.097. fixed and variable O&M costs are considered in the least cost analysis.000.750.) (US$)* Scenario 1 97.800. All capital costs include 15% preliminaries and general items.71 Scenario 1A 2 1.

56 $0. Table E13 : Sensitivity Test .75 $0.3 Inclusion of Transfer Tunnel from Athi River to Thika River If the Athi – Thika transfer tunnel is retained for transferring the necessary compensation flow from Athi River to Tana River basin for the downstream hydropower dams on the Tana River.324 1. as shown in the table E13 below.310 1.348 956 $0.001 929 1.71 $0.53 $0.Egis Bceom International in association with MIBP Executive Summary 7. being considered as the cost of capital from international funding agencies in Kenya.71 $0. For each of the discount factors considered.324 1.82 $0.4 Sensitivity on Discount Factor Sensitivity test has been carried out on the discounting factor.310 930 $0.024 Average incremental economic cost (AIEC) USDS/m3 $0. To test the effect of a range of discount rates the AIEC for each scenario have been calculated for discount factors of both 3% and 8%.360 1. the AIEC for each scenario would not be altered as the investment cost for a transfer tunnel of around 10 MUSD is relatively minor and marginal to the analysis.360 922 $0.006 942 900 1.65 $0.381 1.70 $0.2 Inclusion of Opportunity Costs of Hydropower Hydropower generation losses can be taken into account either through (i) the inclusion of opportunity costs of downstream hydropower generation losses or (ii) by including in the investment program of each scenario the cost of Athi –Thika transfer tunnel which would allow the transfer of the required compensation flow for downstream hydropower dams.77 $0.57 $0.67 $0. the AIEC for each scenario are as shown in Table E12 below: Table E12 : AIEC for Each Scenario Including Opportunity Cost of Hydropower Generation Losses Scenario Discount factor 5% 1 1A 2 3 3A 4 Present value of water outputs Mm3 1.381 850 $0.293 1.64 Discount factor 5% Present value of water outputs Mm3 Present value of costs (PVEC) MUSD Average incremental economic cost (AIEC) USDS/m3 Discount factor 3% 1 1. If the opportunity costs of hydropower generation losses are included in the least cost analysis.84 Average incremental economic cost (AIEC) Discount factor 8% Average incremental economic cost (AIEC) FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 23 Version 02 .71 3 1.62 $0. AWSB 7. Moreover as the investment would be scheduled relatively late in the investment programme present value is only in the order of USD1.63 $0.3 million.76 (i) Present value (opportunity costs) of hydropower losses for five hydro dams on the Tana River and proposed HGF dam 7.348 Present value of costs (PVEC) MUSD 930 865 824 922 850 956 Present value of hydropower costs (i) MUSD 76 77 76 79 79 68 Total present value of costs MUSD 1.74 $0.59 $0.293 865 824 $0. The base case has been analysed with a discount factor of 5%. the ranking of scenarios AIEC’s remains similar. scenario 3A presenting the lowest AIEC. The inclusion of Athi to Thika transfer costs does not change the ranking of the Scenario.Discount Factor Scenario 1A 2 1.77 $0.80 $0.62 4 1.68 3A 1.86 $0.

2 Environmental Flows There is now an increasing recognition. and from operational management of diversion sites and the impacts on downstream riverine ecosystems. 8. Tea Cultivation -Tea is an important crop in those areas of the catchments. prevention of excess nutrients entering the river. as well as to reservoirs that have additional site level or local level impacts. This will result in siltation at the weirs and intakes. Catchment Protection . b) construction of dams. prevention of agricultural pesticides and herbicides entering the river.Deforestation in the Aberdare Range and reduced vegetation cover in the other parts of the river catchments will inevitably result in increased runoff during higher rainfall periods and in increased turbidity and suspended solids in the river flows. The deep roots and ground cover provided by tea plants result in relatively good soil and water conservation. the major environmental impacts are considered to be related to the reduced downstream flows. 8. An important and major part of the catchments of the proposed Northern Collector weirs and abstraction sites are included within the protected areas of the Aberdares. In terms of its environmental impact tea has advantages over other crops grown in these zones.4 Impacts on Ecosystem Potential environmental impacts will result from the creation of the diversion sites and structures themselves. worldwide. and satisfying downstream water requirements. The most important mitigation measures are the release of good quality Reserve Flows capable of maintaining important environmental services.Egis Bceom International in association with MIBP Executive Summary 8 Environmental Impacts Environmental impacts resulting from the proposed diversion of water for the Nairobi water supply will include impacts from: a) construction of weirs. and requirements for more expensive treatment. the “No Project Option” Alternative is not a suitable solution for affected communities and for Kenya as a whole.1 No Project Option A “No Project Option” Alternative was considered not to be viable in any eventuality. Downstream impacts on riverine ecosystems are considered to be the primary environmental impacts associated with the development of these water supply abstraction sites. It is recommended that the Forest Reserve land is managed to provide maximum catchment protection. c) construction of transmission pipelines and treatment works. 8. From an environmental and socio-economic perspective. as well as in downstream reservoirs. Of these. d) from operation of these systems. The Kenya Water Act (2002) supports the principle of maintaining environmental flows in river systems and calls for a reserve to be set for all rivers and to be considered in all water allocation plans. including the Aberdare National Park and neighbouring Aberdare Forest Reserve.3 Upstream Impacts Water Quality . including upstream impacts. including runoff and erosion. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 24 Version 02 . Additional impacts are related to a) construction and b) operation of the diversion sites and associated transmission pipelines. and that any potential deforestation in these areas is minimized. and e) changes to the downstream hydrology of the river basins as a result of reduced flow in the rivers. The “No Project Option” Alternative would imply that the status quo is maintained and no additional water supplies are developed.The requirements for provision of good quality water supplies will be to minimize negative impacts of upstream land use on water quality. tunnels and associated structures. including maintenance of instream and riparian habitats. as well as minimizing change in woody cover and land use within the catchments. AWSB 8. The river flows that are required to maintain these services are termed "Environmental Flows". that modifications made to river flows need to be balanced with maintenance of ecological services depending on the availability of water. Significant parts of all of the catchments associated with the proposed Northern Collector schemes are therefore considered to be under a “high” protection status.

settlement. access roads. such as South Mathioya to Maragua Rivers from Northern Collector 2. Interbasin Transfers .5 Environmental Monitoring Plan In order to fully achieve mitigation. All negative impacts on downstream flows will therefore occur in the Tana basin. In particular. include significant increases in flow over short stretches of river. Hembe. through changes to water flow patterns. obstacles to upstream movement or migration need to be avoided and. Changes in demand for water downstream of the intakes. Scenarios with less overall construction can be expected to have reduced impacts. The overall impacts from construction are considered to be manageable with appropriate mitigation measures. AWSB 8. However. it is necessary to monitor actual impacts and the mitigation measures that are incorporated. tunnels and pipelines. where present. Gikigie. Maragua. and North Mathioya) are connected to tributaries of the Tana. including both Environmental Flow and Compensation Flow components. The Environmental Monitoring Plan (EMP) that will be further developed during subsequent stages based on the chosen development scenario will include recommendations that the following be monitored: • Regular monitoring of flows upstream and downstream of all diversion structures and storage reservoirs.Weirs. there are currently no protected areas associated with the rivers from which abstraction is planned. Impacts from Operation . Water quality. Regular monitoring of increased flows downstream of relevant diversion outlets. Changes to communities of aquatic fauna in reservoirs. transfers of water will take place from these rivers to locations within the Athi basin. quantity and quality. Changes to riparian vegetation downstream of the intake weirs. The provision of adequate downstream environmental flows is considered to be essential for all rivers as a component of Reserve Flows. Impacts from Construction . It is therefore expected that increased consumption will result in increased waste water ultimately flowing into the Athi River. the increased flow will result in potentially increased erosion of river banks requiring specific mitigation measures. together with surveys and monitoring of possible erosion problems in land adjacent to stretches of river with increased flow. In particular. Regular surveys of aquatic fauna upstream and downstream of the intake weirs. Monitoring of sediment loads at intake weirs and downstream of intakes. including changes in demand related to increased demand for agricultural production. Aquatic and Riparian Environments . Githugi. This will include the monitoring and reporting of Reserve Flows. fish ladders or other means of passage need to be provided. and workmen’s camps. land acquisition. Page 25 Version 02 • • • • • • • • • FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS .Impacts that can be expected from construction include: potential soil erosion resulting from site preparation and construction activities. and upstream of Masinga Reservoir. South Mathioya.Primary environmental impacts resulting from operation of the diversion sites and reservoirs are related to the change in downstream hydrology. including regular testing for chemical pollution from agricultural inputs upstream of intake points. Forest cover in the Aberdares catchment area. related to changes in flow rates. Potential positive impacts include improved access enabling farm produce to gain better access to markets. as well as some limited local employment opportunities.Egis Bceom International in association with MIBP Executive Summary Protected Areas and Endangered Species . and to adapt management strategies based on the results of monitoring. for example where flow is diverted from South Mathioya to Maragua River and the proposed diversion of flow from Chania to Komu Rivers. Changes to communities of aquatic fauna downstream of the intake weirs.Impacts on the Athi basin are not expected to be significant as the rivers on which the proposed intakes are situated (Irati.Downstream of the proposed intake sites. dams and other structures along a river or stream will have inevitable impacts on fish species living in the rivers. pollution from machinery and construction activities. Additional impacts from operation. including weirs.

Maintenance of environmental integrity. Prevention of interruption to existing infrastructure installations and services. AWSB 9 9. Construction Environmental Management Plans will be required to deliver a practical and achievable plan of management and to ensure that any environmental impacts during the construction phases are minimised. The following issues will need to be included: • • • • • • • Physical setting. including agricultural activities in the catchment areas of the rivers associated with the Northern Collector phases 1 and 2. a measure of the relative cost of operating the system over its life. Ensure that noise and vibrations are kept to acceptable standards. Operational Environmental Management Plans will also be required.1 Multi-Criteria Analysis Principles A multicriteria analysis has been carried out to compare and rank the different scenarios against the objectives of the development strategy. Impacts of changes in the quality and availability of water supplies from rivers and associated streams on public health.Egis Bceom International in association with MIBP Executive Summary • • Land use and land cover. and the maintenance of compensation flows for downstream communities. Water quality management. including the provision of adequate downstream environmental flows. the coverage of the water demand of Nairobi and satellite towns. Present Value of Operation and Maintenance Costs (PVO&M). soil and groundwater contamination control. Present Value of Economic Costs (PVEC). Plans will need to be developed prior to construction once full design and construction details are available. Waste management. The AIEC is the present value of the cost of a scenario divided by the present value of water outputs that the scenario enables over the period 2011-2035. Resettlement and land compensation. These should focus on sound environmental management practices undertaken to minimise adverse impacts on the environment during normal operation of the intake sites. erosion and sediment control. including those communities dependant on downstream flows. Additional economic indicators considered are the utilisation of existing facilities has been considered to favour scenarios which are making full use of the design capacity of existing facilities. the reliability of the resource. including compensation for potential loss of livelihoods. impact on downstream flows and competition with alternative downstream/upstream uses of water. reservoirs and water transmission tunnels and pipelines. Energy management. The following issues will need to be included: • • • Overall management strategy. In addition. dust and air quality. including the building of alternative access routes as required. and Environmental Performance Monitoring. Economic Sustainability: scenarios are compared through their respective indicators of least cost analysis: Average Incremental Economic Cost of water (AIEC). The criteria have been selected to assess the impact of each scenario against the following four key sustainability issues: • Technical and Natural Resources Criteria: essentially mandatory water quantity indicators on the security of the resource for Nairobi WS. including measures to ensure minimizing greenhouse gas emissions. land contamination. flora and fauna. an indicator the scale of the capital investment costs. and competition Page 26 Version 02 • FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS . ensuring minimal environmental impact and proposing mitigation measures. including environmental performance monitoring and regular reporting.

Impact on resettlement and land losses is also evaluated.Egis Bceom International in association with MIBP Executive Summary with hydropower. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 27 Version 02 . However all six scenarios meet this mandatory criteria. • The analysis has been carried out in three steps: First Step – Mandatory Criteria: Meeting Projected Water Demand and Security on the Resource. A scenario which does not i) meet the projected quantity of water demand or ii) which relies too heavily on a single source or water route without developing security from additional water storage capacity will be dropped from further consideration. and impacts on appropriate management of downstream ecosystems during the construction and operation stages. the criteria of i) meeting the water demand and ii) ensuring sufficient security on the water sources have been considered as mandatory criteria. Second Step: Least Cost Analysis The cost of developing each scenario are compared through the least cost analysis applying the three criteria mentioned above: AIEC. Table 12. the impact they have on water quality issues for upstream land use. i. PVEC and PVO&M. The table below presents the adopted weights for each criteria. economic aspects 45%. Overall the sustainability issues are accorded 30%. calculated over the 2011-2035 period. Scenarios leading to specific water uses are ranked low. Third Step: Multi-Criteria Analysis on Other Criterias AWSB The scenarios are then compared though a multicriteria analysis against secondary indicators along with the four main sustainability issues which includes technical and natural criteria.2 Weighting of Criteria All criteria do not have the same importance for the ranking and selection of the best scenario.1 below presents the Analysis matrix used for the analysis showing the weighting given to each factor. Social Sustainability: Scenarios are compared against their impact on access to water. equity of access to water for upstream and downstream water users and stakeholders. which will occur when additional water is abstracted from upper Tana catchment. and scenarios maintaining access water are favoured.e. 9. environmental aspects 15% and social 10%. and both environmental and social indicators. Firstly. Therefore one indicator of opportunity cost on hydropower has also been included in the multicriteria analysis. economic indicators. • Environment Sustainability: scenarios are compared against their downstream impact of water quantity releases on environment.

scenario 2 is relying mostly on water abstraction of NCT1 and NCT2.1 All six scenarios studied meet the quantity of water supply to meet the projected 2025 demand for Nairobi and the satellite towns.0% 7. Of all the scenarios considered. without developing new dams with storage reservoirs. D.0% 10% Environment " " " Water quantity Water quality Ecology " Downtream Environmental Flow Upstream Impact Construction Operation 5.0% 3.3 First Step of the Analysis: Mandatory Criteria on Water Demand Coverage and Security on Water Source Meeting Water Demand Projections up to 2035: AWSB 9. Economic 5. 15. 3. 12.3. 9.0% 5. Environment 10. 11. 13.5% 7.5% 45% Headline Criteria Sub-criteria Diversity of the Resource Water Flows/Competition with Hydropower Water Flows/Competition with other Downstream Users Weighting % 10. enabling more security against drought periods.0% 2.0% 10. This risk is higher for scenarios which rely mostly on run-off river abstraction. All the other scenarios are built around the phased development of two storage dams.0% 30% Natural Resources Water Quantity " " " " 9. 7. Security of the Water Resource Analysis of the risk of supply scenario on long term or extended change: dry year.0% 15% Economic " " " " Cost Cost Cost Infrastructure Cost Present Value of Economic Costs (PVEC) Average Incremental Economic Cost (AIEC) O&M New infrastructure Opportunity Cost 15. B. 8. 2. Security on the Water Supply Routes All scenarios apart from Scenario 2 are developing four new sources while Scenario 1a and 3a propose four additional major water supply routes with the other four scenarios having three additional FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 28 Version 02 . while all the others have a limited risk. without developing additional storage dams in the upper Tana Catchment. C.0% TOTAL 100.Egis Bceom International in association with MIBP Executive Summary Table 0-1: Multi-Criteria Analysis – Weighting of Criterion Sustainability Issue 1. 9. Therefore Scenario 2 is assessed as having a high risk. 6.5% 7. climate change. namely Maragua 4 and Ndarugu dams. Social " Access Amenity Water access Resettlement / Compensation / Land loss 5.2 Security and Reliability of Water Supply Security of water supply is considered for both the security on the water sources and the reliability of water supply routes.3. Social 14.0% 5.5% 7.0% 10.

5.1. subcriteria developed for the comparison of scenarios include its comparison against: AWSB o Diversification of the Resource: share of alternative sources to surface water (groundwater. A scenario is ranked good if there is no impact on licensed HEP flows. These additional water supply routes abstract raw water flows from storage dams.Egis Bceom International in association with MIBP Executive Summary major water supply routes. the scenario is ranked medium. three criteria all linked to the water quantity abstracted for Nairobi City and satellite towns for the time horizon of 2035. Scenarios which do not make full use of existing design capacity of the system are ranked poor.5 9. a scenario is considered poor against this criteria when the licences HEP yearly flows are affected by more than 10%. Based on the main development objectives of the strategy adopted for Nairobi and satellite towns water supply. roof catchment. Summary of AIEC of the different scenarios is presented in the Analysis matrix in Table 12. Among all water sources development scenarios considered. The present value of O&M costs. Diversification of water sources of less than 5% of total water sources by 2035 is ranked poor.Multicriteria Analysis on Other Criterias Criterias Considered The list of criteria developed for this third step of the analysis include: • Technical and Natural Resources Criteria. 9. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 29 Version 02 . and when the alternative water sources are maintained or over 10% of the total water sources by 2035. The least cost analysis is presented in detail in Section 10. It is considered medium if the licensed HEP flows are affected by less than 10%. Water Flows/Competition with Other Downstream Uses: water flows left downstream by the different scenarios are compared to licensed flows downstream and impact on downstream users.1 Third Step . shows that Scenario 3a ranks highest as it has the lowest PV of O&M Costs. All six scenarios rank equally for this criteria. For the analysis.4 Second Step: Least Cost analysis. recycling). Scenario 3a scores the highest as it has the lowest Average Incremental 3 Economic Cost of water per m . All scenarios are ranked equally against this criterion o o • Economic Criteria: the two criteria used to compare the different development scenarios include: o Use of Existing Infrastructure: scenarios making use and built upon existing infrastructure will be preferred. Water Flows/Competition with Hydropower: scenarios are compared for their impact on downstream hydropower. The present value of economic costs (which includes the initial capital investment costs. All of the six scenarios studied are considered to meet the conditions of the mandatory criteria and can be considered for further evaluation against the multi criteria analysis. included to allow for the importance of the future pumping costs which affects financial sustainability and the magnitude of water tariffs. annual fixed and annual operation and maintenance costs) shows that Scenario 2 ranks the highest followed by Scenario 3a. 9. the scenario is ranked good for this indicator. When alternative sources are between 5% and 10% of total water sources. All scenarios are ranked equally against this criterion.

Below USD60 million. water quality and ecology criteria. Comparison of each water source development scenario shows that overall Scenario 2 with a score of 80% ranks higher by 8% than Scenario 3A.until 2035. o o o Downstream Impact (water quantity): impact of water quantity left downstream on environment: water flow patterns and downstream water and land use. • Social Criteria: the criteria retained include relate to o Water Access: equity of access to water and impact on downstream domestic and commercial users. nutrients. o 9. the closest and is considerably higher than the other scenarios. If opportunity costs are above USD80 million the scenario is ranked poor against this criteria. Ecosystems (Ecology): Impact on and appropriate management of downstream ecosystems during the construction and operational stages.6 Results of the Analysis AWSB The following tables present the results of the multicriteria analysis. Upstream Impact (water quality): impact of upstream land use on water quality: erosion. and runoff. excluding other water uses downstream or upstream are ranked poor. Between USD60 and USD80 million the scenarios are ranked medium. Resettlement/Land Losses: impact of each development scenario on population to be resettled and total land losses from storage dams and infrastructure. If there is no restriction on alternative water sources the scenario is ranked good. pesticides. A scenario is ranked poor when it leads to significant resettlement and land losses. Scenarios which allow only a specific use of water. Scenario 4 presents the lower ranking against the combined criteria. Security on the Water Source: Scenario 2 does not include the development of Maragua 4 storage dam and is mainly based on water sources abstracted from run-off rivers. the scenario is ranked good. • Environment Criteria: selected criteria include water quantity. the scenario is ranked medium. When several sectors have access to the water sources. It is ranked medium if there are manageable resettlement and land losses. Diversification of Water Sources and Reliability: Scenario 2 will develop three additional major water sources and three additional routes for Nairobi water supply: one new gravity system will convey water from Thika dam storage to the new Ngorongo high level water treatment works to the Kabete FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 30 Version 02 .3 presents the final weighted score and the ranking of the six scenarios.2 shows the weighting criteria and the allocation of weightings while Table 12. Consequently it is assessed as having a high risk of not meeting demand during extended droughts compared with the other scenarios.7 Advantages of Scenario 2 Scenario 2 presents the following advantages against the other water sources development scenarios: Meeting the 2035 Projected Water Demand: The water sources development phases of Scenario 2 ensure the production of additional water resources to meet the projected 2035 water demand. The phasing of infrastructure development ensures that the projected demand is continuously met from 2016.Egis Bceom International in association with MIBP Executive Summary o Opportunity Cost: discounted opportunity cost for downstream hydropower and alternative downstream water uses. 9. It is ranked good if there are no or minimum resettlement and land losses. Table 12.

The second system will use the Nadarugu storage dam resources. The Capital Expenditure of Scenario 2 is approximately 12. The Present Value of Economic Costs for Scenario 2 is the lowest at US$ 824. with an estimated AIEC of 0. Impact of Water Abstraction on Other Uses: Impact of each scenario on natural resources. In addition the impact on Tana downstream HP dams can be entirely compensated by a water transfer though the Athi-Thika tunnel. This option does not require the transfer of water from Gigiri to Kabete Reservoir. scenario 2 has the second lowest economic cost of hydropower water abstraction. based on feasibility level designs.5% lower than the Capital Expenditure of Scenario 3a which is the second best Scenario under the MultiCriteria Weighting Analysis. Least cost for Additional Water: Investments under scenario 2 present the second lowest least cost 3 per m3 of additional water over the 2011-2035 period. When including the impact of water abstraction on downstream hydropower.Egis Bceom International in association with MIBP Executive Summary Reservoir WTW. therefore saving on annual pumping costs.63 USD/m of treated water brought to the main reservoirs of Nairobi. environment and alternative water uses has been considered in the multicriteria analysis. Environmental and social impacts will have however to be estimated more precisely for scenario 2 in the following steps of the study. while the third will involve the development of groundwater resources. AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 31 Version 02 .

25 0.12.5 0.19 0.1 Economic O&M Cost NPV of O&M Costs in MUSD Score 276.75 0.) (<0.00) in USD/m3 $0. (800-850.00 3. (250-275.71 $0.64-0.7.00).5 C. Environment Water quantity significant impact some impact No change 0.75 0.5 1 0. 0. 0.5 0.50).25 930 0.69. ii) local demand and catchment w ide.5 0.75 7.5 0.5 3.25 951 0. aquatic fauna abd significant impact riverine ecosystems.50 922 0. 1.5 0. 0. . recyling etc. (0.63. significant issues manageable issues no issues 0.5 0.5 3.65 $0.00 843 0.25). dams and transmission systems Environmemtal impacts f rom operation. 0.5. MANDATORY CRITERIA Sustainability issue 1. (<800. 0. (0.75 0.5 Sub-Total . Technical & Natural Resources Water quantity Water flow s/ Competition w ith hydropow er Water ter f low s /Competition w ith other dow nstream uses Water lef t dow nstream meets dow nstream demand f or local hydropow er run-of f -river AWSB Licensed HEP yearly f low s maintained Good (100% of licensed flow s met) Most existing 0. 0.5 0. 0.5 0.) 3.3. OTHER CRITERIA .5 0. 0. Technical & Natural Resources 0 0. impact on upstream and dow nstream domestic.00) Present Value of Operation and Maintenance costs over the projected lif e of the inf rastructure (<200. (225-250.00).5 0. w ater f low patterns. and stakeholders Population to be resettled and total land losses f rom dam storage reservoirs.25 0.Egis Bceom International in association with MIBP Executive Summary Table E14 : Multi-criteria Analysis – Weighting Criteria/ Allocation of Weightings 1.4.67-0.62 0.5 0.00). (200-225.25 FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 32 Version 02 .25 0. Specific w ater supply use only Signif icant resettlement and land losses Several sectors have access All sectors can use No resettlement/land losses 3.50 6. Social Amenity Resettlement / Compensation / Land loss Manageable resettlement /Land losses 0.75). 0. etc.5 0.75 865 0.Other Criteria 6. incl impacts on protected areas and vulnerable species.71 Score in MUSD Score 0.5 1 Share of alternative sources to surf ace w ater (groundw ater roof catchment. 0.5 0.5 0.00 2.00) 2.6. Risk of supply option to long term or extended change: dry years. Environment Water quality Upstream impact Impacts of upstream land use on w ater quality : including catchment runoff & erosion.25 0.8.25 0.5 3. Environment Ecology Construction Environmental impacts from construction. including managememt of intake sites.2 Water Quality limited risk limited risk high risk limited risk limited risk limited risk 1.50). protection change in w oody cover and land use.94 0.00 210.5 0.61 $0.34 0.00 10.5 1 0.63 $0.1.1 Economic Cost Average Incremental Economic Cost (AIEC) Normalised discounted Average Economic cost/m3 (Capex and O&M) of the proposed scenario over the projected lif e of the inf rastructure (>0. Water Quantity Water lef t dow nstream meets licensed f low s dow nstream Satisf actory (70% of licensed f low s met) 1 1 1 1 1 1 B.5 0.2 Economic PVEC NPV of Capex and O&M Present Value of Economic Costs (PVEC) (>900.11.25 1.25 3.00 0.25).61. Econom ic 3.70. (875-900.00 176. commercial. Technical & Natural Resources Water Quantity Diversif ication of the resource below 5% of total w ater demand 2035 Licensed HEP yearly flow s aff ected by more than 10% unsuited: less than 50% of f low s met maintained to 10% betw een 5 to 10% of total of w ater demand w ater demand 2035 in 2035 Licensed HEP yearly f low s af f ected by less than 10% 1 1 1 1 1 1 3.5 0.3 Water Quality Number of additional and independent w ater Sources & Routes 4 new Sources & 3 additional 4 new Sources & 4 4 new Sources & 3 additional 4 new Sources & 4 additional 3 new Sources & 3 major WS routes additional major WS routes major WS routes major WS routes additional major WS routes 4 new Sources & 3 additional major WS routes Screening of scenario against mandatory criteria 2. Social Equity of access to w ater.25 3. nutrients/pesticides runof f .68 $0. WTW. significant impact including w eirs.5 1 1 0.75 9.25).75 214.5 0.5 0.5 0. (850-875.00 815 1.00 322.00 9. 0.5 3.5 0. 1.1.1 Technical& Natural Resources Technical& Natural Resources Technical& Natural Resources Headline Criteria Water Quality Sub-Criteria Water Demand Security of the Resource Reliability of the Resource Description Quantity of w ater supply to meet 2035 demand for i) Nairobi & satellite tow ns.5 0. Social Access Water access 0.25 0.LEAST COST ANALYSIS consider consider consider consider consider consider 2.75).75 277. Economic Cost Opportunity cost Opportunity cost Opportunity cost USD60 > USD80 million USD80 million Opportunity cost <USD60 million 0.61-0.5 0. ECONOMIC CRITERIA .9.5 D. 0. (0.5 0.75 0.10 Environment Operation some impact Minimal impact 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.66. some impact Minimal impact 0. Economic Infrastructure New inf rastructure Use and build upon existing inf rastructure & resources Opportunity cost for hydropow er &/or alternative w ater uses lost (discounted over project economic life) All new inf rastructure Some use existing 0.40 1. (>275.75.5 0.LEAST COST ANALYSIS Sustainability issue Headline Criteria Sub-criteria De scription Poor Medium Good Scenario 1 Scenario 1A Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 3A Scenario 4 A. Technical & Natural Resources .5 0.50).31 0. Environm ent Dow nstream environmemtal impact Impacts on environments dow nstream. climate change etc Scenario 1 Yes Scenario 1A Yes Scenario 2 Yes Scenario 3 Yes Scenario 3A Yes Scenario 4 Yes 1. dow nstream w ater and land use f rom reduced environmental f low s 3.75 1.5 0.

5% 7.00 0.03 0.03 49% 0.10 Scenario 3 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.0% TOTAL 100.03 72% 0.01 0.03 0.0% 5.0% 10% 0. 8.04 0. Environment 10.05 0.5% 7.10 0.0% 10. B.04 0.0% 10. 2.03 0.04 0.00 0.0% 30% 0. 15.05 0. D.03 0.01 0.10 Scenario 3A Scenario 4 0.03 0.02 FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS Page 33 Version 02 .04 0.0% 3.04 0.05 0.5% 0.04 Headline Criteria Sub-criteria Diversity of the Resource Water Flows/Competition with Hydropower Water Flows/Competition with other Downstream Users Weighting % Scenario 1 10.06 0.03 0.0% 5.04 80% 0. 13.04 0.03 0. Economic 5.11 0.11 0.0% 7.06 0.15 0.08 0. Social " Access Amenity Water access Resettlement / Compensation / Land loss 5.Weighting of Criteria and Ranking of Scenarios Sustainability Issue 1.01 0.04 45% 0.02 0.08 0.06 0. 12.02 0.10 0. 3.04 0.03 0.04 0.03 68% 0.05 0.02 0.04 0.05 0. 7.02 0.10 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.04 0.01 15% 0.01 0. Social 14.0% 2.03 0. 6.01 0.02 0.10 0.10 0. C.10 0.10 Natural Resources Water Quantity " " " " AWSB 5.5% 0.03 0.10 0.Egis Bceom International in association with MIBP Executive Summary Table E15 : Multicriteria Analysis .00 0.03 0.10 Scenario 1A Scenario 2 0.03 0.08 0.01 0.05 0.03 44% Environment " " " Water quantity Water quality Ecology " Downstream Environmental Flow Upstream Impact Construction Operation Economic " " " " Cost Cost Cost Infrastructure Cost Present Value of Economic Costs (PVEC) Average Incremental Economic Cost (AIEC) O&M New infrastructure Opportunity Cost 15. 9.10 0.05 0.0% 7.03 51% 0.06 0. 11.01 0.03 0.

Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Preliminary discussions regarding the Proposed Scenarios. the following Reports / Working Papers have been submitted by Egis Bceom International / Mangat I. 2 Content of the Water Sources Option Review Report The Terms of References for the Feasibility Study and Master Plan for Developing New Water Sources for Nairobi and Satellite Towns mention that the report “Review of Water Sources Options” shall discuss the following items: • • Water demands and water balance for present and future demands Water source options 1-1 Version 02 FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS . Patel & Partners Introduction Chapter 1 - Introduction 1 General The Government of Kenya has received a credit from International Development Association (IDA) and the Agence Française de Développement (AFD). The Draft Version 01 of the Water Sources Options Review Report was submitted to AWSB on rd 23 May 2011. Patel & Partners according to the Contract with Athi Water Services Board (AWSB) for the consulting services related to the Feasibility Study and Master Plan for Developing New Water Sources for Nairobi and Satellite Towns. I. AFD. and egis/MIBP. AFD and other Stakeholders to discuss the Preliminary findings outlined in the above mentioned Working Papers. • • • • • • Inception Report. Patel & Partners. 2 – Surface Water Hydrology – March 2011 Working Paper No. 1 – Preliminary Review and Update of Scenarios for Water Supply to Nairobi – February 2011 Working Paper No. Subsequent to the submission.B. The Minutes of the Meeting are given in Annex 1. Economic Analysis and Multi Criteria Analysis were held and the Consultant was asked to review the Final Report incorporating comments by various Parties. To date. and intends to apply part of the proceeds for Consulting Services for Improving Water Security: Feasibility Study and Master Plan for Nairobi and Satellite Towns. Meetings / Video Conferences were held between Representatives of AWSB.B. February 2011 Working Paper No. World Bank.B. World Bank. The present document is the Water Sources Option Review Report prepared by the Consultant Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat I. Comments on the Preliminary findings have been incorporated in the Water Sources Option Review Report. 3 – Water Demand Report – April 2011 Water Sources Options Review Report (Draft Version 01) – 23 May 2011 Review of Groundwater Resources – June 2011 rd AWSB Various discussion forums have been held jointly between AWSB.

2 below) have significantly changed the objectives. (ii) the Clarifications to Consultants on RFP Document issued on January 11 . Volume 1 of the present report is organised as follows: • • • • • • • • • • • Present Water Sources. The location Plan for Nairobi City and Satellite Towns is given in Figure 1-1 on Page 1-4. Patel & Partners Introduction • • • • Selection of the preferred development strategy to meet expected demands Capacity and quality of a possible transfer tunnel in the Aberdare ranges Security of Tana and Athi Rivers operational and environmental flows downstream Description of works and budget cost estimates to secure operational and environmental flows downstream Accordingly. The clarifications issued subsequently by AWSB (ref Section 3. issued in October 2009 th by AWSB. Production and Transmission Systems Study Area. On-going Studies and Projects Proposals for New Water Sources Mobilisation AWSB 3 3. 2010. by AWSB and (iii) the Minutes of Negotiations all attached together with the Consultant’s Proposal for the Contract.B.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Land-use. I. the sequences of activities and the expected outputs indicated in TOR. It must be emphasized that the TOR document mentioned Two Phases as follows: • Phase 1: including two steps: 1-2 Version 02 FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS . Socio-Economic and Demographic Trends Water Demand Forecast Surface Water Resource Assessment Groundwater Assessment Other Water Sources Preparation of Water Source Long term development Strategy and Scenarios Water Balance Modelling Least Cost Analysis of Nairobi Water Supply Water Sources Development Scenarios Environmental Impacts Multi-Criteria Analysis Volume 2 of the present report provides standalone analysis for each of the Satellite Towns included in the scope of the study with: • • • Present situation of Water Sources Mobilisation and Related Schemes Water Demand Forecast New Sources already Identified.1 Objectives of the Assignment Terms of Reference The reference documents to be used for carrying out the present assignment include: (i) the TOR related to Consultancy services for Improving Water Security: Feasibility Study and Master Plan for Developing New water Sources for Nairobi and Satellite Towns.

geotechnical investigations and topographical surveys at the feasibility level for potential dam sites and hydrogeological reviews for groundwater options. The letter stated that further clarifications are as follows: • “The Consultant is not required to prepare any detailed design for Maragua and Gatamayu dams or any other detailed design.B. Patel & Partners Introduction Draft Feasibility Study considering all options and recommending 2-3 strategies to meet 2035 demand in the most cost effective option.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. GOK reviews 2-3 strategies and selects one strategy which would be developed up to Full Feasibility Study Level.3 Study Outputs The Consultancy Contract Documents (Appendix B – “Reporting Requirements”.2 Clarification Issued on 11th January 2010 A letter related to “Clarifications to Consultant on RFP document” was issued by AWSB and addressed to all shortlisted consultants on 11 January 2010. page 26) clarifies that the Study Outputs will be as follows: • • • • • • • • • • Inception Report: four weeks after start of the assignment Monthly Progress Reports: one week after the end of each calendar month Water Sources Options Review: six months after mobilisation Water Sources Development Stage 1 pre-design: six months after mobilisation Review of Groundwater Resources: eight months after mobilisation Review of Social and Environmental Factors: eight months after mobilisation Request for Proposals for Detailed Design of Stage 1 Work: ten months after mobilisation Water Sources Development Master Plan Phase 2: twelve months after mobilisation Water Resources Management Report: fourteen months after mobilisation Terms of Reference for Sanitation Master Plan Update: fourteen months after mobilisation FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 1-3 Version 02 . The preliminary design may include one or more dams. treatment works and transmission main.” … “as part of the activities for the services. Detailed Design and Bidding Documents for the first 5 year increment (stage 1) – This th component was subsequently deleted in clarifications issued on 4 January 2010. the Consultant will be required to undertake a feasibility study and masterplan to meet the long term (25 years) needs for Nairobi and preliminary design for the short term measure to meet the demand for 2017. The preliminary design may include total water storage capacity of at least 100 million cubic meters.” • AWSB 3. The Consultant will undertake hydrological reviews. Detailed design will be part of another assignment which AWSB intends to procure as soon as the study is advanced enough to make a decision about specific investment needed. I. • Phase 2: including two main sub-activities: Master Plan for 25 years in 5 year increments (or stages). 3. groundwater development and/or other options.

I. Patel & Partners Introduction Figure 1-1: Project Location Map .Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.Nairobi City and Satellite Towns AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 1-4 Version 02 .B.

B.1 Water Sector Organisation Key Legislation and Policies Key legislation and policies for the water sector in Kenya include: • The National Policy on Water Resources Management and Development. and • The Water Act. The Ministry was established in January 2003 with the goal of conserving. The ministry and other state corporations that were involved in water supply such as the National Water Conservation and Pipeline Corporation also transferred their water supply facilities to these regional water service boards.3 Water Resources Management Authority (WRMA) The Water Resources Management Authority (WRMA) was formed as one of the water sector bodies under the water sector reforms. The Director of water was the person in charge of water services in the ministry but these powers and duties were transferred to the regional water service boards that are now licensed by the WASREB to provide water services in different regions across the country. Figure 1-2: Functions and Roles of Institutions set up under Water Act. Water resources for FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 1-5 Version 02 . Patel & Partners Introduction 4 4. the body was established under the Water Act 2002. managing and protecting water resources for socio-economic development.2 Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI) The Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI) is the ministry in charge of the water sector and is therefore responsible for the overall management of water resources and general government policy on the water sector in the country. water supply and sewerage services. 1 of 1999.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. NGOs. The overall mandate of WRMA is to protect and conserve water resources. the Ministry transferred management of and operation of water services to the Water Services Regulatory Board (WASREB) from mid 2005. 2002 AWSB 4. I. 4. CBOs and any other community self help groups are required to enter into agreements with the respective regional water service boards with regard to use of water supply facilities owned by the community organisations. which was aimed at providing for a harmonized and streamlined management of water resources. The institutional arrangements and authorities in charge are shown in Figure 1-2 and described in the sections below. Under the water sector reforms. 2002. Sessional Paper No.

• Regulating the provision of water and sanitation services. The functions of the WRMA include planning. Pro-Poor Implementation Plan for Water Supply and Sanitation (refer to the popular versions of these documents prepared by COHRE & Hakijamii Trust). establishing standards guidelines and monitoring the performance of Water Service Boards and Water Service Providers and enforcing regulations. tariff guidelines.B. • Setting the rules. The Water Service Providers are the agencies that directly provide water and sanitation services to consumers. The main objective of the WSTF is to assist in financing capital costs of providing services to communities without adequate water and sanitation services. ponds. the specific functions of the WASREB include: AWSB • Providing information about water and sanitation services. 4. The projects are funded through direct FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 1-6 Version 02 . Lake Victoria South catchment area in Kisumu. To standardize service provision. this is done through such methods as setting standards for the provision of water services. streams. I. Patel & Partners Introduction purposes of the Water Act include lakes. The WRMA responsibilities extend to the management of water catchments. • Licensing Water Service Boards such as the Athi Water Services Board and other regional water service boards and approving their appointed Water Service Providers through service provision agreements. Lake Victoria North catchment area in Kakamega and Ewaso Nyiro North catchment area in Nanyuki.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. 4. Tana catchment area in Embu.5 Water Services Trust Fund (WSTF) The Government of Kenya. The Water Act establishes the Catchment Area Advisory Committees whose principal functions are to advise the WRMA on water resources conservation. The WRMA is also authorized to receive and determine applications for water permits and monitor their compliance. The functions of the WASREB include the issuance of licences to Water Service Boards and to approve service provision agreements concluded between Water Service Boards and Water Service Providers. There are currently six established regional offices in Kenya these are Athi catchment area in Machakos. Rift Valley catchment area in Nakuru. marshes. management.4 Water Services Regulatory Board (WASREB) The Water Services Regulatory Board is established under the Water Act and was operationalised in March 2003. the Board has the responsibility of developing among others. The WASREB is responsible for ensuring that water services and supply are efficient and meet expectations of consumers through regulation and monitoring of Water Service Boards and Water Service Providers. monitor compliance of facilities for water supply with the set standards. protection and conservation of water resources. water quality and effluent disposal standards. swamps. use and apportionment at the catchment levels. • Establishing technical. the priority being given to poor and disadvantaged groups. watercourses or anybody of flowing or standing water both below and above the ground. through the Ministry of Water and Irrigation established the Water Services Trust Fund (WSTF) under the Water Act 2002 to channel funding for its long-term objectives of developing water and sanitation services in areas of Kenya without adequate water. The Board is therefore supposed to oversee the implementation of policies and strategies relating to provision of water and sanitation services. these policies include the National Water Services Strategy (2007 -2015). The WSTF focuses on reaching those areas that are underserved or not served at all such as informal settlements.

Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat, I.B. Patel & Partners

Introduction

allocation by the Government and donations and grants that may be received from bilateral and multilateral development partners, organisations and individuals.

4.6

Water Appeals Board

The Water Appeals Board is established under the Water Act to adjudicate disputes within the water sector. The Appeals Board is made up of three persons, one appointed by the President on advice of the Chief Justice and two others appointed by the Minister for Water and Irrigation. The Water Appeals Board can hear and determine appeals arising from the decision of the Minster of Water and Irrigation, the WASREB and the Water Resources Management Authority (WRMA) with respect to the issuance of permits or licensees under the Water Act.

4.7

Water Services Boards (WSB)

Water Services Boards (WSBs) are constituted under the Water Act 2002. The WSBs are responsible for the provision of water and sewerage services within their areas of coverage and are licensed by the WASREB. The WSBs are also responsible for contracting Water Services Providers (WSPs) for the provision of water services. WSB and WSP enter into service provision agreements that include but not limited to the supply area, development, rehabilitation and maintenance of water and sewerage facilities of the WSBs. The WSBs are responsible for the review of the water services tariffs proposals from WSP before submission to WASREB for consideration. There are currently eight (8) established WSBs namely: Athi Water Services Board, Tana Water Services Board, Coast Water Services Board, Lake Victoria South Water Services Board, Lake Victoria North Water Services Board, Northern Water Services Board, Rift Valley Water Services Board and Tanathi Water Services Board.

AWSB

4.8

Athi Water Services Board (AWSB)

The Athi Water Services Board serves Nairobi City and the surrounding districts of Kiambu East, Kiambu West, Gatundu and Thika. The main responsibilities of AWSB are to: • Expand coverage with strong focus on improving access to water services in urban informal settlements and to the rural poor. • Contribute to poverty reduction, promote gender equity, sensitize communities on good health and hygiene practices, promote HIV/AIDS awareness and conserve the environment. • Appoint viable and well managed Water Service Providers and ensure they have appropriate systems by undertaking the following: • Enforce water quality monitoring. • Ensure they have maintenance systems and procedures to minimise interruptions to water supplies. • Ensure they have accurate and efficient billing system. • Ensure they are customer focused in all their activities. • Monitor and evaluate performances against targets for the Board and Water Service Providers. • Build Capacities of Water Service Providers to embrace efficiency, accountability and responsibility in service delivery.

FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS

1-7 Version 02

Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat, I.B. Patel & Partners

Present Water Sources

Chapter 2 1 Present Water Sources

Present Water Sources

Nairobi is presently supplied with water from five (5) principal sources: Kikuyu springs, Ruiru Dam, Sasumua Dam, Chania River, Thika Dam with Kimakia and Kiama Rivers: • Kikuyu springs located to the west and immediately outside of the city boundary were the first water sources developed during the period 1900-1906. • Ruiru River was developed from 1936 to 1938 with initially an intake weir and transmission pipelines. This source was further developed by the construction of Ruiru Dam, completed in 1950. • Sasumua Dam on upstream Chania River was completed in 1956. The capacity of the reservoir was increased in 1968 by raising the dam height. • Chania river source, downstream of Sasumua, was developed from 1974 to 1983 with an intake weir in Mwagu. 1 • Thika Dam , on Thika River, completed with diversion from Kimakia and Kiama Rivers were developed from 1991 to 1994. This is supplemented by private, institutional and AWSB owned boreholes. The Thika Dam - Mwagu system contributes the bulk of the water to the system at about 85%, followed by the Sasumua system at 11%, while Ruiru Dam and Kikuyu Springs contribute approximately 3% and 1.5% respectively. It is noted that with the rapid development of boreholes drilling witnessed in the last ten years it appears that the contribution of groundwater is increasing. The details regarding the capacity and contribution to Nairobi city are provided in Table 2.1 below.

AWSB

Table 2-1: Water Sources and related Capacities
Name
2

Sasumua Dam

Thika Dam – Ngethu Ruiru Dam Kikuyu Springs Total

Available Water Resource 3 (m /day) 56,000 3 (68,400 ) 437,000 3 (475,200 ) 21,700 4,800 519,500

Raw Water Flow 3 (m /day) 43,902 3 (63,700 ) 348,384 3 443,232 ) 16,133 4,800 413,219

Clear Water 3 (m /day) 42,062 3 (56,000 ) 327,466 10,550 4,800 384,878

NWSC Coverage (%) 10,93 85,08 2,74 1,25 100,00

Flow to Nairobi City 3 (m /day) 24,143 311,059 10,550 4,800 350,552

Source: SOGREAH-Cape, 2005 Report (BRLi / Seureca, June 2011 Report) Note: Estimated Existing Production from Groundwater / Boreholes is 45,000m3/day

According to BRLi/Seureca Final Report (draft) dated June 2011, the total abstraction for Ngethu 3 3 3 Treatment Works is 5.13m /s (443,232 m /d) for a simulated period with 1.91m /s from Thika Dam and 3 3.22m /s from other Rivers. This figure has been adopted as the available resource of water from the Thika Ngethu System for the analysis of different Scenarios studied under the present assignment.

1 2

Sometime referred as Ndakaini Dam

Measurements made by the Consultant SOGREAH – Cape showed that the flow available from 3 3 Sasumua for Nairobi City is 24,143 m /day and losses in transmission lines 17,919 m /day which include losses plus legal and illegal papping for water supply along the lines
BRLi / Seureca Final Report (draft) June 2011

3

FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS

2-1 Version 02

Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat, I.B. Patel & Partners

Present Water Sources

1.1

Existing Water Production Systems

Most of the information presented in this section is from data provided in the Report issued in January 2005 by SOGREAH – Cape Consult “Nairobi Water and Sewerage Emergency Physical Investments Project – Component 1: Diagnostic of the Current Situation & Definition of an Emergency Physical Investments Programme”; it is complemented with data from Seureca – CAS “Consultancy Services on Hydraulic Network Modelling”, report issued in August 2007, and from BRLi – Seureca “Consultancy Services for Hydrological Study and Water Management for the Ngethu – Sasumua system, Inception Report, October 2010. Other data were directly supplied by Athi Water Services Board.

1.2
1.2.1

Production and Transmission Systems Kikuyu Springs System

The Kikuyu Springs Source was the original source of potable water for Nairobi and was developed at the beginning of the last century to supply water to what is now the City Centre. It was the principle source of water until the mid 1930’s. The spring source comprises three springs yielding a total of about 4800m /day, located 18 km to the west of the city at an elevation of 1960m. Although the output is now considered small compared with Nairobi’s present demand, its high elevation and good water quality provides a valuable low-cost water supply in the city particularly during water rationing. Measurement of 3 the flows carried out in 1998 indicated that the Kikuyu Springs system produced 9,000 m /day. The two principal springs supply presently local small distribution zones through 250 m service reservoir built under the Third Nairobi Water Supply Project. The third spring which is a minor source is only used for local supply.
3 3

AWSB

1.2.2

Ruiru – Kabete System

Ruiru Dam Originally an intake on the Ruiru River, a tributary of Nairobi River (Athi River basin), located about 25 kilometres north of Nairobi City, constructed in 1938, connected to a 225mm steel pipe and later to a 300mm pipe; the Ruiru Dam is a concrete gravity dam which was constructed in year 1950 and connected to a third 400mm pipe. Ruiru Dam main components and characteristics are listed in Table 2-2 below. Table 2-2: Ruiru Dam Characteristics
Dam Component Type Dam crest length Reservoir Normal Water Level Reservoir Maximum Water Level Total capacity of reservoir Reservoir surface area Reservoir safe yield Catchment area Spillway discharge capacity at maximum water level Spillway type Spillway crest length Spillway crest elevation Bottom outlet scour pipes discharge capacity Outlet Draw off Pipes Maximum height above foundation Characteristics Concrete gravity and masonry parapet and wing wall 155 m 1 959.86m AOD 1 962.59m AOD 2.9 million m3 35 ha 0.189 – 0.263 m3/s 6 680 ha 255 m3/s Over weir channel 48.75m 1 959.86m 2 no. 36” and 24” ND 6 no. 12” ND 18.3m

FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS

2-2 Version 02

Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Patel & Partners Present Water Sources Figure 2-1: Nairobi Water Supply – Schematic of Existing Main Systems AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 2-3 Version 02 .B. I.

B. I.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Patel & Partners Present Water Sources Figure 2-2: Existing Nairobi City Water Supply System AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 2-4 Version 02 .

• • FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 2-5 Version 02 . It has been in operation since year 1956. 4 days a week • 5 pumps to Uthiru Reservoir. Patel & Partners Present Water Sources Kabete Treatment Plant The Kabete Water Treatment Works. It is reported that mechanical and electrical equipment need replacement. Table 2-3: Sasumua Dam Characteristics Dam Component Height of the dam Full Water Supply Level Spillway Crest length Total capacity of reservoir Catchment area Spillway discharge capacity Characteristics AWSB 41.9 million m3 128 km2 452 m3/s The initial height of the dam was 33.5 m 2 496.B. the pipe is branched into two lines of bitumen – lined steel sections. located 8 km west of the city centre.66 m. Section 2: This section has two pipes running in parallel. it was raised between 1963 and 1968 to 41.5 m.000m /day. a tributary of the Chania River (Tana River basin).2. Kabete Pumping Stations There are eight (8) pumps with unit discharge of 400 m /h pumping treated water to Nairobi: • 3 pumps to Dagoretti Forest Reservoir. The main characteristics of the dam are listed in Table 2-3 below. Kiburu East and Kiburu West) are diverted into Sasumua Reservoir in order to increase the natural inflow. In this section. the other 3 days of the week 1. The first branch is of DN450 nominal diameter and the other is of DN 600 nominal diameter. split in three segments. the pipe is made of bitumen-lined steel pipe nominal diameter DN800. The description of the distinctive sections is as follows: • Section 1: From the tunnel outlet for a distance of about 80. Three streams (Chania River. If sufficient raw water is supplied 3 it can produce 20.5m.8 m. I. its current production is only half this figure. all totalling a length of 685. It has been expanded several times in the 1940s and the 1950s. Section 3: This section begins just outside the inlet to the treatment plant and ends at the power generating turbines. It is located about 6 km from the Njabini Market at the southern end of the Aberdare Ranges. This section terminates just before the inlet to the works. Raw Water Main The raw water transmission from the Dam consists of a pipeline. This section terminates in the first junction. the DN600 pipe is reduced in diameter from DN600 to DN 450 and both pipes deliver raw water for the hydro-turbines.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.3 3 Sasumua – Kabete System Sasumua Dam The Sasumua Dam is located on the Sasumua stream. in which also is installed an air valve. was built in 1939. however.4m AOD 427m 15. At this junction.

The first intake became a standby source. North of the existing site of Ngethu Treatment Plant • Phase 2 included the construction of a second intake at Mwagu. Sasumua dam was then intended to regulate flow in the Chania River and 3 to enhance flow at Mwagu intake from 104. AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 2-6 Version 02 . Rehabilitation works are being implemented for the Sasumua Dam spillway and the water treatment works (refer to Chapter 3 . I.B. According to Third Nairobi Water Project Reports. The losses within the treatment plant have been assessed as 10%. The total stated raw water design capacity of the plant is 3 approximately 63. close to Ndakaini village. while the larger one delivers flows to the phase two and three plants through a DN900 culvert.Section 3. Patel & Partners Present Water Sources The 1996 report by Howard Humphreys & Partners (Nairobi Water Supply Operating Philosophy) estimated that the carrying capacity of this raw water main has been reduced 3 progressively by slime deposits in the pipeline from initial 63. The smaller weir delivers flows to the phase one plant.2. From the flow measurements carried out at the inlet weirs by NCWSC. The main characteristics of the reservoir are listed in Table 2-4 on Page 2-7.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.2 – Sasumua Ngethu Systems (Components 1 and 2). the first stage was commissioned in 1956. From the hydro-turbines.700 m /day. while the Phase 3 was commissioned in 1963.4 Thika – Ngethu – Gigiri System The system was developed through the three phases of the Nairobi Water Supply Project with: • Phase 1 included the construction of a river intake and pumping station on the Chania River. operated as 2 duty and one standby. Sasumua Treatment Plant Situated about 1km downstream of the Dam the Sasumua Treatment Plant is an old plant that has been developed over three phases. the total raw water 3 delivered into the works is around 54. Phase 2 was commissioned in 1961.000 m /day to about 58. It is a river regulating reservoir to augment water supply to Nairobi by ensuring adequate flows at Ngethu Treatment works. 7km upstream of phase 1 intake in order to feed Ngethu treatment plant by gravity. the water is conveyed into a flow-division chamber with two sharp-crested weirs.5 kW.000 to 121. 1. A system of transmission tunnels picking up extra flows from Kiama and Kimakia Rivers delivers water to Mwagu intake Thika Dam The Thika Dam located about 50 km north of Nairobi.000 3 m /day. was constructed between 1989 and 1994 under the Third Nairobi Water Supply Project. Raw water from the transmission mains is delivered to the plant via three (3) impulse electrical power generating turbines each of rating 37.000 m /day • Phase 3 included the construction of Thika Dam on the Thika River.000 m /day.

The 1.3 3 m /s. The stated maximum capacity in this section of the tunnel can reach 6.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Chania Outfall The Kiama-Chania tunnel emerges into a short channel in which is installed a weir to measure the total discharge delivered by the tunnel. The settings of the tunnel are such that no flow enters the tunnel until compensation flows in the downstream 3 reaches 0.3 m /s which is the stated maximum tunnel design discharge.7m /s. shaft diameter: 5. Mwagu Intake The intake was completed year 1982.5m.8 km2 2 041m AOD 420m 70 million m3 75 km2 340m 3m 1 400mm with 6 draw-off valves H= 65m. From the pool the water flows to the Kimakia – Chania transmission tunnel. compensation and demand from a future high-level treatment works. Compensation flow was 3 AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 2-7 Version 02 . D= 2.4 km long with a 2.0 m long ogee-crested section creating a pool from which water flows through a penstock-controlled inlet to the Kiama – Chania tunnel which is about 3. Q= 6 m3/s The intake shaft is located on the southern edge of the reservoir. Kiama Weir Located 450m downstream of the Thika – Kiama tunnel outfall it includes a weir (4.B.5 m diameter.0 m high with an 8. A discharge valve regulates the outflow to the Thika – Kiama transmission tunnel. length: 180m Qmax=120 m3/s L= 1km.14 m /day. Q= 6 m3/s L= 3km. D= 2. I. Patel & Partners Present Water Sources Table 2-4: Thika Dam Characteristics Dam Component Height of the dam Reservoir water surface Full Water Supply Level Spillway Crest length Capacity of reservoir Catchment area Tunnel length Tunnel diameter Draw-off pipe Spillway characteristics Tunnel Emergency spillway Thika-Kiama tunnel Kimakia – Chania tunnel Characteristics 65 m 2. A 500mm scour outlet allows for silt flushing. Kimakia Weir The Kimakia weir comprises a 10 m long and 1. A gabion-lined channel carries water to an outfall structure some 80m above the bed of the receiving Chania River.0 m high concrete section constructed across the Kimakia River to abstract a portion of the river flow to complement releases from Thika dam.5m Discharge: 390 m3/s. Two 900mm scour pipes cross the central weir section.5m. A second draw off structure has been constructed to supply irrigation.400mm intake has been designed for a maximum flow of 5. The 14m high weir has three crest levels to facilitate flow measurement. The stated design of the 3 structure is 6.

400mm pipeline with overflow level 1.57 3 Ngethu to Gigiri Transmission Line The treated water transmission system was developed in three phases as follows. No compensation flow is released anymore during dry season.841.Mataara .200mm diameter pipeline with a new overflow raised to elevation 1. Mwagu Transmission System to Ngethu From Mwagu intake a 2.8m. Kiambu and Gigiri for optimizing flow distribution are controlled by flow valves at Gigiri Reservoirs.0m diameter tunnel connects to Mataraa Chamber in the Mataraa River valley.09 3 Output (m /s) 0.47 2. The tunnel leads to a horseshoe profile. It was extended in 1992 for connecting an extra 1.000 195.000 3 The combined design capacity of the pipes is 465. In 1984 and 1994 capacity was increased and the treatment process rehabilitated. Works were completed in 1978.000 m /day. Three pipelines. Table 2-6: Capacity of Ngethu Water Treatment Works Phase 1 + 1A 2 2A 3 Year 1974 / 78 1984 1994 1996 Total 5. 1200 mm 3 3 Design Capacity (m /day) 460. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 2-8 Version 02 . the other 50% is unlined. 2A and 3 are proprietary Degremont Plants with two “Pulsator” Clarifiers and 4 Constant Rate Gravity Filters “Aquazure” Type.000 270. 1400 mm Raw water main diam. Gatundu. The Phase 2 comprising of 3 clari-flocculators and 8 filter units are proprietary WABAG Plants. the chamber was connected to a 1.Ngethu System Component Mwagu intake Mataara tunnel Raw water main diam.000 m /day. Ngethu Water Treatment Works AWSB The site was developed in early 1970s in three phases to receive raw water from Mwagu and transfer treated water to Gigiri. According to the SOGREAH – Cape Consult assessment the combined flow reaching Ngethu treatment works was estimated 3 to be 360.B.3 m /s controlled by penstock valves. The treatment processes and the equipment for phases 1. Table 2-5: Design Capacity of the Mwagu . Patel & Partners Present Water Sources expected to be released via a 300mm pipe which clogged with silt.41 0. I. The intake discharges water into the Mataara tunnel with a maximum capacity of 5. Mataraa Chamber acts as a header tank for raw water pipelines to Ngethu.45 2.71 1.30 Input (m /s) 0.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. In year 1983.74 1.36 0. The treated water is stored in head reservoirs.7km long 3.000 m /day.68 5.841m. The maximum 3 total installed capacity of the three plants is said to be 450.000 460. inter-connected at Ruiru. Nairobi. For approximately 50% of its length the tunnel crown is lined either with a reinforced concrete arch or reinforced shotcrete. wholly by gravity.

Service Reservoirs.000 265.Gigiri Phase 1 Steel pipe Length (Km) Design capacity 3 (m /day) 49.0 AWSB 1.000 225. Table 2-8: Nairobi Upper Supply Area Zone Name Storage Capacity (m3) Sources 1 2 3 4 Kikuyu Springs Tank 1 Kikuyu Springs Tank 2 Dagoretti Forest Uthiru Loresho Tower 250 m3 250m3 11. Patel & Partners Present Water Sources Table 2-7: Treated Water Transmission Pipelines Ngethu .5 Others Groundwater is used as a supplementary water source for Nairobi since 1930s.0 5. Several groundwater schemes have been locally developed mostly in recent years and the TOR 4 suggested that groundwater could contribute a high proportion of the total supply. Zone 3 South is fed from the Zone 2 distribution network. Within the satellite towns. Nairobi City Water Supply and Sanitation Company (NCWSC) is managing about thirty boreholes within its service area out of which twelve are presently operated for about twelve hours a day.2 km long 500mm rising main Zone 3 is sub-divided into two major sub-zones. Zone 4 is headed by Loresho Water Tower which is supplied from two 37 l/s pumps in Kyuna Pumping Station.000 265.3.5 1.8 11. Distribution Principles and water supplied at present to the zones is given in Annex 2.2.000 2 3 700 mm 1000 mm 1200 mm 1400 mm 1200 mm 1000 mm 36.5 km long 500 mm rising main.0 13.000m3 11.000 108.000m3 450m3 Spring No 1 Spring No 2 Pumped from Kabete Pumped from Kabete Pumped from Kyuna 4 The figure of 25% has been mentioned FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 2-9 Version 02 .Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Middle Supply Area and Lower Supply Area as shown on Figure 2-3 on Page 2-10.1 Upper Supply Area It comprises four (4) Distribution Zones: Zone 1 is supplied by gravity from Kikuyu Springs with excess flows being discharged into Zone 2 Zone 2 is headed by Dagoretti Forest Reservoir which is supplied by three 118 l/s units in Kabete Pumping Station via a 10.3 36.B. Zone 3 North is headed by Uthiru Service Reservoir which is supplied by three 118 l/s units in Kabete Pumping Station via a 4. Detailed Layout Plan showing Nairobi Water Supply Pressure Zones. 1. I.600 128.3 6.3 Storages and Main Distribution Zoning Water supply in Nairobi can be broadly divided into three areas: Upper Supply Area. some schemes supplied from groundwater were identified during the field visits and related data available in Volume II.

B. Patel & Partners Present Water Sources Figure 2-3: Nairobi Three Water Supply Areas AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 2-10 Version 02 .Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. I.

3 Lower Supply Area The Lower Supply Area is fed by gravity from Gigiri Service Reservoirs.Rehabilitation of Sewers and Sewage Treatment Plants Works Package 4 . 10 and 11. studies and technical assistance are presently being implemented as described on Table 2-11 below. Ngethu and Sasumua Treatment Plants Package 3 .3. 6 and 7: Zone 5 is headed by Kyuna Service Reservoir which is supplied by a connection of the Sasumua transmission main through a pressure sustaining valve.000 59.Construction of Ablution Blocks Package 2 .Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.000 11.Karen via Kabete and Uthiru TA for improving performance of NCWSC including Water Demand Management Source: Data Communicated by AFD. Table 2-11: NWSEPIP Programme Item Description PACKAGE 1 (Sasumua Dam) Nature In progress In progress Completed In Progress Completed In progress Works Works Works Consultancy Completed In progress In progress Under preparation.000 18.B. Table 2-10: Nairobi Lower Supply Area Zone 8 9 Name Storage Capacity Sources (m3) Gigiri Kabete Karura Wilson Outering Kasarani AWSB 10 11 61.000 Ngethu Ngethu Ngethu Ngethu Ngethu Ngethu 2 On-going Works Under NWSEPIP the following rehabilitation works.000 9.Gigiri Systems Laying of Pipeline from Gigiri . Patel & Partners Present Water Sources 1.Rehabilitation of Ngethu . Zone 6 is supplied by gravity from Kabete Service Reservoir complex Zone 7 is headed by Hill Tank which is fed through a 450 mm main direct from Kabete Table 2-9: Nairobi Middle Supply Area Zone 5 6 7 Name Storage Capacity Sources (m ) Kyuna Kiambu Hill Tank 9. Apr-08 Mar-08 Jun-09 Jul-10 Mar-11 Oct-10 Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Apr-13 Nov-08 Jul-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Status Commencement Date Completion Date Works Package 1 .Rehabilitation of Mwagu System. 9.Sasumua Dam Works Consultancy Hydrological Study and Water Management for Ngethu Sasumua System Sanitation Works Components Package 4 .000 450 11.3.000 Gravity from Sasumua Gravity from Sasumua and Ruiru Gravity from Kabete 3 1.000 42. and comprises four distribution Zones: 8. Nairobi FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 2-11 Version 02 .2 Middle Supply Area It comprises of Zones 5. I.

demolition and reconstruction of wing wall. The rationale for the proposed programme was that these tasks secure and improve the Mwagu – Ngethu – Gigiri system all along from upstream to downstream.000 m /day. restoration of existing instrumentation system. etc. flocculation and sedimentation tanks.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. crest levelling.1 Mwagu – Ngethu – Gigiri System Rehabilitation Works Schedule A programme with three components listed below with approximate schedule is being implemented under NWSEPIP. and installation of some new instruments. 2. Mwagu intake and swabbing of the line Ngethu-Kabete): works should be completed by July 2011. • Promotion of dam safety for Sasumua Dam but also Thika and Ruiru Dams (Task 3). October 2005 6 FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 2-12 Version 02 . Patel & Partners Present Water Sources 2. chemical house. • • • Component 1 (Rehabilitation of Sasumua Dam): works completed. rehabilitation of the spillway side channel. AWSB 5 Figure provided by the Consultant SOGREAH – Cape Consult in the above quoted report dated October 2005 Data extracted from the report “Component 2: Feasibility Study of the Final Scenario”. pump house. This includes provision of instruments and computer based database software for handling data and analysis for the three dam sites. The rehabilitation is expected to 3 bring Sasumua production back to its initial design capacity at 56. Main items to be considered included rehabilitation of power house. SOGREAH – Cape Consult. filters. This includes the improvement of the riprap protection of the upstream dam slope. rehabilitation of the seepage measuring chamber. • Rehabilitation of Sasumua Treatment Plant (Task 4). Component 2 (Rehabilitation of Sasumua and Ngethu treatment plants. I. The construction of the pipeline between Gigiri and Kabete (Package 3b) starts this year. record reinstatement and O&M manuals.B. • Rehabilitation of Sasumua earth fill dam (Task 2). improvement of the drainage system. This includes rebuilding and upgrading the damaged spillway with demolition then reconstruction of element. The works related to package 3a (4th line Kwa Maiko-Gigiri) started in 2011. the high investment was said to be justified by the fact that this system provided 5 around 87% of Nairobi water supply .2 Sasumua Ngethu Systems (Components 1 and 2) Sasumua Dam spillway breached in May 2003 and this failure resulted into loss of production capacity. The feasibility study carried out by SOGREAH – Cape Consult in 2005 in the frame of “Nairobi Water and Sewerage Emergency Physical Investments Project” concluded that priority 6 should be given to the following sub-components : • Rehabilitation of Sasumua spillway weir and chute (Task 1).

After investigating additional water resources and making the required analyses the study concluded that following the completion of the Thika 6 scheme (Ndakaini Dam) which would transfer water per gravity to Nairobi via Mwagu intake and Ngethu Treatment Works.500 km the study area included Nairobi.1 Long-term Development Plan (Regional Studies) The Report was issued in June 1986. Kiambu. The study area covered the drainage area of the upper catchments of the Tana and Athi Rivers. Mavoko Municipality. AWSB 3. the Northern Collector should be extended to the North Mathioya river and additional supplies are 8 gravitated to Nairobi via a new high level treatment works to a service reservoir at Kabete. w/o rural schemes Ngorongo 8 FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 2-13 Version 02 .1. Feasibility Report.1. and the Feasibility Study Report in July 1998.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. I. Limuru. it included the whole of the upper Athi catchment but only the Thika catchment of the Upper 2 Tana system. England. Kiama and Chania Rivers. for the Nairobi City Commission. two Study Reports are particularly relevant for carrying out the present study: • Long-term Development Plan (Regional studies). The Long Term Plan was to be aimed at satisfying the needs of Nairobi and its environs to 2010. and Intakes on the Kimakia. the whole of Kiambu District 7 and parts of Muranga. Ngong Township and Tala-Kangundo. 7 The study area was different from that targeted under the present study which is limited to Nairobi and thirteen (13) satellite towns: Thika.B. Karuri. Ruiru-Juja. The previous studies confirmed that Thika Dam was the preferred choice of water for the Third 3 Nairobi Project with a yield of 3. and to propose an integrated implementation plan. In this context. Sasumua Dam.1 Previous and On-going Studies Third Nairobi Water Supply Project The study was carried out by Howard Humphreys & Partners. July 1998 3. Selected minor surface and groundwater sources will be developed at the same time to augment supplies to the areas outside Nairobi. Patel & Partners Present Water Sources 3 3.2 Northern Collector Scheme The Draft Report was issued in June 1998. Machakos. June 1986 • Northern Collector Scheme. The Northern Collector was to constitute an extension of the existing water resource system encompassing Thika Reservoir. Githunguri. Ongata Rongai. Kenya. The area lies within the Athi River catchment within the exception of Muranga which is within Tana River catchment. Kikuyu.8 m /s. the principal objective of the study was to identify sufficient sources of water to meet the demand for water of Nairobi until 2010. in association with Howard Humphreys (Kenya) Ltd. Covering 7. Based on the conclusions of the previous studies for the Third Nairobi Project. Lari. Gatundu. Kajiado and Nyandarua Districts .

Northern Collector Scheme.32 m /s. The diversion capacities 9 and compensation flows required are summarized in Table 2-13. AWSB 3 Phase II 84% of the required for phase II. 9 Without considering the downstream hydropower generation FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 2-14 Version 02 . I. Patel & Partners Present Water Sources The broad objective of the Northern Collector was to intercept a proportion of the flow in rivers to the north of Thika reservoir sufficient to allow the water resource system that supplies Nairobi to increase in yield in two phases: .27 m /s 3 The study recommendations were as follows: Phase I The required yield for Phase I of 1.Phase II: .50m /s could only be met by an extended 23 km long tunnel with additional diversions from the South Mathioya.0 1.484 0.50 m /s 3 2. Mathioya Compensation Flow 3 (m /s) 0.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.665 0.411 1.5 Source: Howard Humphreys & Partners.0 Source: Howard Humphreys & Partners. can be achieved with a tunnel of total length 25 km by diverting flows from the South Mathioya. Draft report.B.502 Diversion Capacity 3 (m /s) 2 3 2.Mathioya Hembe Githugi N. Northern Collector Scheme.093 Diversion Capacity 3 (m /s) 5 6 7 1.0 3. June 1998 The study concluded that it was not realistic to consider setting the compensation flows to minimize impact on the generation of hydropower within the District.332 0. The diversion capacities and compensation flows required are summarized in Table 2-13.Total: 1. Draft report.076 0.5 2. 2.0 1. June 1998 If compensations flows are set in such a manner as to minimize the impact on hydropower generation by the run-of-river schemes in Maranga District.Phase I: . the required yield for Phase 1 of 3 1. Table 2-12: Phase I Configuration for the Northern Collector Diversion No 1 3 River Irati Gikigie Maragua Compensation Flow 3 (m /s) 0.50 m /s can be achieved with a reliability of 90% by a 13 km long tunnel diverting flows from the Irati. Githugi and North Mathioya rivers in addition to the Phase I diversions. Gikigie and Maragua rivers. Table 2-13: Phase II Configuration for the Northern Collector Diversion No 4 River S. Hembe and Githugi rivers.5 1. Hembe.77 m /s 3 4.

B. with following main reasons: • Mwagu intake no longer has the capacity to divert the target discharge from Chania river • The transmission line from Maatara and Ngethu is not able to carry the required discharge • Ngethu Treatment Plant requires some rehabilitation to produce the design capacity • Transmission line from Ngethu to Gigiri no longer has the required capacity There is an unbalanced deficit with estimates of 49% for Kabete System and 13% for Gigiri System.2 Nairobi Water and Sewerage Emergency Physical Investments Project Due to the great need to improve water supply and sanitation services in Nairobi. the Conclusions of the SOGREAH-Cape’s Report were as follows: • The Emergency Physical Investments Programme should focus on increasing the volume of water supply to Nairobi • The programme should participate in reducing imbalance in water distribution within the City th • A Water Supply Master Plan in view to define a 4 Nairobi Water Supply Project is required as an emergency FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 2-15 Version 02 . 3. I. The diagnosis of the Nairobi water supply system leads to the following main observations: Measurements show that the actual flow measured in 2004 at Ngethu Treatment Plant is 3 110. “Feasibility Study of the Final Scenario”.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.000 m less than originally designed. included two components: • Component A: Emergency Rehabilitation of the Sasumua Dam. The NWSEPIP Study carried out by the Consultant SOGREAH. Some options for increasing the yield were already identified at a preliminary level mainly in the form of provision of new storage reservoirs. Kenya. It aims at providing investments opportunities to complement the Nairobi Water and Sewerage Institutional Restructuring Project (financed by World Bank) that aims at strengthening the institutional framework for water and sanitation services in Nairobi. Proposed Next Stage The Consultant noted that the construction of the Northern Collector will constitute the completion of the Long Term Development Plan as envisaged in 1986. As a result. damaged during the rains at the beginning of 2003 • Component B: other emergency physical investments related to the water and sanitation installations of Nairobi. in association with CAPE Consult. AWSB The following data review are related to the report for Component 2. the “Nairobi Water and Sewerage Emergency Physical Investments Project (NWSEPIP)”. submitted by the Consultant in October 2005. France. financed by the Agence Française de Développement (AFD) was initiated by the Ministry of Water and Irrigation on behalf of the Athi Water Services Board. Howard Humphreys’ study added that there was (in 1998) a need to establish a future plan for provision of water supply to the city. Patel & Partners Present Water Sources Phase III The analysis made by Howard Humphreys’ study showed that the yield of the project could be increased if additional storage can be introduced into the configuration.

FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 2-16 Version 02 . In fact the water demand at 3 68.21 0. France.16 and 2. Thika and Ruiru) and three water treatment plants (Ngethu. 2.260 m /day.31 and 3. i.3.400 m /day is guaranteed with a reliability of 98%.3 Hydrological Study and Water Management for the Ngethu – Sasumua System (BRLi/Seureca Draft Report. Sasumua and Kabete).920 m /day The results are summarised in Tables 2.41 1. higher than the 3 expected Sasumua WTP capacity (68. 3. It is possible that estimation in 1986 was based on the maximum compensation flow downstream Thika Dam.27 0. significantly higher than the total of the individual yields. with funds from Agence Française de Développement (AFD). 3.B.15. However in another report "Hydrological Review Howard Humphreys 1995" it is stated that "this is the yield influenced by the releases that are made from Thika Dam for the benefit of downstream users".01 2.3.1 Yield Analysis Table 2-14: Reliable Yield in m /s River / Structure Gross Yield 1.05 0.79 3 The 90% reliable yields are given in Table 2.25 0.44 0. Sections 3.598 AWSB 5.08 4.01 m /s or 87.8 m /s.92 3. I.3. June 2011) The Consultant BRL Ingénierie in association with Seureca.17 on Page 2-17.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.400 m /day in raw water).39 Compensation Flow Water Available 1.5 m /s with 90% reliability.2 below are abstracts from the BRLi/Seureca Final Report (draft) dated June 2011. In Howard Humphreys study (1986) the 90% reliable yield of the Thika-Kiama-Kimakia-Chania 3 system is estimated at 3.158 0.5 It can be noted that the whole system yield is 5.01 2. 3 • Sasumua WTP: 68.14 below for individual dam / weir Sasumua Dam Thika Dam Kiama Weir Kimakia Weir Chania between Sasumua & Mwagu Intake Total Thika + Kiama+Kimakia+Chania (Sasumua Dam & release from the dam not included) Total system Thika-Kiama-Kimakia-Chania (Sasumua Dam not included) taking into account joint management 0.14 0.69 0. aiming to maximizing the water production from the existing water system composed principally of three dams (Sasumua. have carried out the Hydrological Study and Water Management for the Ngethu – Sasumua system for Athi Water Services Board (AWSB).16 0.400 /day (raw water) 3 • Ngethu WTP: 457. Patel & Partners Present Water Sources 3.e. For the Sasumua Dam the 90% reliable yield is 1.2 3 3 3 Simulation of the System Operation A day-by-day simulation was carried out by taking into consideration the rehabilitated capacities of the two water Treatment Plants.

54m /s Table 2-16: Water Balance at Thika Dam Over the Simulated Period Average Characteristics Operation Data (1997-2010) Simulation with long Time Series (1946-2010) 3 Inflow 2.49 0.74 Thika Dam 2.71 Limited by Kimakia 3 intake capacity (1m /s) Chania River (lateral flow + 3. I. Kimakia + Chania) compensation flow 3 (0.62m /s (different from inflow 0.4m /s 3 (estimation from observation 2.3m /s in raw water).91 m /s from Thika Dam and 3.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.06 5.79 release from Sasumua Dam) (2.017m /s direct rainfall) direct rainfall) 3 3 Outflow 0.26 0.03m /s 3 -0.22 Taking into account (Kiamba.158m /s) and spilled water Thika Dam + River Runs 8. The water demand at Ngethu WTP is satisfied with a reliability of 92% (daily time step).64m /s (Rainfall-runoff 1.79 0.33m /s 1.22 from other Rivers. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 2-17 Version 02 3 3 .72 Kimakia Intake 1.67m /s) 3 3 Net losses (evaporation – -0. Patel & Partners Present Water Sources Table 2-15: Water Balance at Sasumua Dam Over the Simulated Period Average Characteristics Operation Data (2006-2010) Simulation with long Time Series (1946-2010) 3 3 Inflow 0. The average is lightly inferior to the water treatment 3 capacity (5.B.54) Total River runs at Mwagu Intake 5.76m /s) 3 Net losses -0.73m /s because of the storage variation in the dam between beginning and end of the period) 3 Spilled Water Unknown 0.40 3.25m /s 3 3 Release for Ngethu WTP 1.56m /s AWSB Table 2-17: Simulated Abstractions compared to the Inflows (averages over the Period) 3 Site Inflow (m /s) Abstraction Remark Nairobi Water 3 Supply (m /s) Sasumua Dam 1.58 +0.13 The total abstraction for Ngethu WTP is 5.02m /s (evaporation – direct rainfall) (evaporation < direct rainfall) 3 3 Compensation Flow 0.66 1.91 Kiama Intake 0.86m /s 0.01m /s (evaporation < -0.25m /s 0.66m /s 3 at 4CB5: 1.26m /s model for the same period: 3 0.13m /s for the simulated period with 1.91m /s 3 3 Spilled Water 0.12 1. because of the deficit in dry years.

the Consultant Hydrogeologists made a review of available Study Reports. Buried paleo 10 Also the “Aftercare Study Report” which was issued year 1998 FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 2-18 Version 02 . The report identified areas for future developments. 2009. year 2009. in 1964. I. potentials of underground resources and management weaknesses. • The Study on the National Water Resources Master Plan 10 The National Water Resources Master Plan was submitted by JICA in 1992 . summarized the status of Nairobi water supply. was issued as a conclusion of a study in view to identify potentially high yielding aquifers mainly in eastern Nairobi.4.Long Term Development Plan – Regional Studies – Hydrogeology The report is part of the study reports prepared by Howard Humphreys in 1986. with assessment on contribution. • Report for proposed Groundwater Borehole Drilling to Enhance Water Supply in Nairobi Area The report prepared by Earthview Geoconsultants. Section 2. Water Resources Assessment Study in Kiambu District. 2005.Kenya The report prepared by S. was related to Phase 1 of the project “Management of the aquifers underlying the Greater Nairobi Area”. Karen. Kikuyu Town and Ongata Rongai. AWSB • The Athi River Basin Integrated Water Resources Management Programme The Report prepared by BCEOM. Patel & Partners Present Water Sources 3. Foster et al. is a basis for all other studies in the field.. This report collated and integrated surface and groundwater information concerning the Athi River Basin into a groundwater model.5: • Hydrogeology of the Nairobi Area The report prepared by Gevaerts. presents the results of a Rapid Appraisal of Groundwater Abstractions in Five Areas (Hotspots): Westlands.1 Other Study Reports Reports related to Groundwater During their assignments in Nairobi for the Inception Report preparation. Thika Town. A detailed review of the report mentioned below is presented in Volume Annexes. • Preliminary Allocation Plan of the Nairobi Aquifer Suite The Report prepared by Norken (I) Ltd. • Geology of the Nairobi Area The report prepared in 1991 by Saggerson described among other the stratigraphic succession in Nairobi area. • The Role of Groundwater in the Water Supply of Greater Nairobi . 1998.4 3.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. for WRMA.B. Kenya • Third Nairobi Water Supply Project . In the Volume of Annexes to the present report there is a detailed review of the parts of JICA National Water Master Plan relating to groundwater resources.

Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat, I.B. Patel & Partners

Present Water Sources

valleys were identified and preliminary location for field works selected. Maps were not available. 3.4.2

Reports Related to Projects Planned by Tana Water Services Board

Reports prepared by the Consultant Howard Humphreys related to the development of water abstraction schemes from Maragua, South and North Mathioya Rivers were collected from TWSB (Nyeri) and were reviewed by the Consultant and assessment of water demand incorporated under the on-going study.

AWSB

FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS

2-19 Version 02

Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat, I.B. Patel & Partners

Study Area, Land Use, Socio Economic and Demographic Trends

Chapter 3 - Study Area, Land Use, Socio Economic and Demographic Trends

1

Study Area Presentation

The Objective of the Study is to identify strategies for bulk supply of water to Nairobi City and 13 Satellite Towns to initially meet the Short Term Year 2017 water demand and eventually the Long Term upto Year 2035 water demand. The task involves review of previous studies which have been carried out, but the proposed interventions have not been implemented to date. The initial aim is to identify priority strategy to meet the 2017 water demand for which Preliminary Design has to be carried out. A Master Plan to meet the 2035 water demand of Nairobi City and 13 Satellite Towns has to be prepared under the Study. The development of bulk water sources to supply Nairobi and 13 satellite towns will impact on the general resource water balance in the region. The Water Demand estimate must therefore be done at two levels: • • At Study Area Level which includes the River Basins from which water is abstracted to supply Nairobi and Satellite Towns At Town Area Level for Nairobi City and Satellite Towns

AWSB

The Study Area covers the river basins used to supply Nairobi and Satellite Towns (Tana, Thika and Athi River Basins). Table 3-1 indicates the Districts within the Study Area and their population as enumerated in the 2009 Census. Table 3-1 : Study Area - List of Districts and 2009 Population
Province Nairobi District Population (2009) 3,138,369 346,283 335,460 253,751 265,829 131,132 123,895 77,073 218,544 241,007 113,094 214,791 263,256 442,930 219,103 6,532,280

Central

Rift Valley Eastern

Muranga North Muranga South Kiambu East (Kiambaa) Kikuyu Kiambu West Lari Thika East Thika West Ruiru Gatanga Gatundu Kajiado North Machakos Kagundo
Total

FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS

3-1 Version 02

Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat, I.B. Patel & Partners

Study Area, Land Use, Socio Economic and Demographic Trends

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Nairobi and Satellite Towns

The list of the Satellite Towns as per the Request for Proposal (RFP) is given in Table 2 below and their locations with respect to Nairobi City are shown in Figure 3-1 on Page 3-3. Table 3-2 : List of Satellite Towns
No. 1 2 3 4 5 5 6 8 9 10 11 12 13 Satellite Town Gatundu Thika Lari (Uplands and Kimende) Kikuyu Limuru Kiambu Karuri Githunguri Ruiru-Juja Ongata Rongai NgongTownship Mavoko Municipality (Athi River) Tala-Kangundo District Gatundu Thika West Lari Kikuyu Kiambu West Kiambu East Kiambu East (Kiambaa) Githunguri Ruiru and Thika West Kadjado North Kadjado North Machakos Kangundo

When studying the Satellite Towns, it appears that some of the Towns are located in the vicinity of Nairobi and are becoming part of the Greater Nairobi. The population growth is not occurring within the Municipal Boundaries but is infilling all the land available between Satellite Towns and the Nairobi District Boundary. These present trends in physical development i.e. population growth, optimum housing densities, infrastructure development and the Study of Kenya Government Vision 2030 Strategy etc. have all been considered in ascertaining the “Effective Envelop of Nairobi Water Demand”.

AWSB

Figure 3-2 on Page 3-4 shows the Nairobi City and the effective demand Envelop. This Envelop was approved by AWSB on 27 December 2010. It includes some of the Satellite Towns under the present study for mobilization of bulk resources (i.e. Kikuyu, Karuri, Kiambu, Ruiru, Juja, Athi River, Ongata Rongai and Ngong). The area between Nairobi City Boundary and the Envelop Boundary is a contiguous part of Nairobi. Although this area lacks planned infrastructure, the development pattern is similar to Nairobi City and most residents in this area commute to Nairobi daily for work, schooling, etc. In term of water resources, these Towns will have their own resources wherever possible. Connections to the main transmission lines to Nairobi will only be allowed if there is no other resource available. For the others Satellites Towns, outside the Nairobi Envelope (i.e. Limuru, Uplands, Kimende, Githunguri, Gatundu, Thika, Tala, Kangundo), only the core urban centre will be taken into consideration for the water demand estimate. Rural areas are excluded from the present study except for ascertaining the water demand to be used in the Water Balance Model. The water demand forecast for Nairobi City and each of the Satellite Towns are detailed in the Annexes to the Main Strategy Report to be submitted in May 2011. This Report presents a summary of the Land Use Analysis within the Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR) and the water demand forecast for Nairobi City and the Satellite Towns. In addition, the water demand forecast for the Region has been assessed where the existing and proposed sources emanate. This will be used in the preparation of the Water Balance Model.

FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS

3-2 Version 02

B. Patel & Partners Study Area. I.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Land Use. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends Figure 3-1: Project Location Plan – Nairobi City and Satellite Towns AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-3 Version 02 .

Patel & Partners Study Area. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends Figure 3-2: Nairobi City and the Effective Demand Envelop AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-4 Version 02 . I.B. Land Use.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.

and following the dip direction of the underlying lava flows. which provides the greater part of Nairobi’s present water supply and the Rivers Thika. pyroclastic rocks or their weathered derivatives. The headwaters on the Rift Valley margin are both flatter and lower in elevation and in their middle courses the widely spaced tributaries of the Athi flow through a rolling plateau. Thiririka. Topography. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends 2. Upthrusting and concentration of volcanic activity at the margins of Rift Valley has resulted in a general alignment of lava flows and associated deposits in a southeasterly direction. This weathered mantle and the forest vegetation which covers elevations above 2200m. although its dry weather flow is small. Kinangop. the course of the Athi approaches that of the lower Thika and at one point they are separated by a distance of only 1. the most Southerly. rise four major tributaries of the River Tana. only the Upper Embakasi (or Mbagathi) is perennial. the character of the landscape changes to the South of Nairobi.500m are reached within the Study Area. The eroded surface of the pre-Cambrian basement rocks outcrops only on the southern and eastern margins of the area. I. The rivers within both the Tana and Athi drainage system form a parallel drainage density. The highest land occurs in the Nyandarua Mountains where elevations of over 3. displacement and volcanic activity associated with the Rift Valley System. Elsewhere it is overlain by a variable thickness of volcanic and pyroclastic rocks of Tertiary age. with occasionally rocky hills standing above the general level. Of the three tributaries of the Athi meeting at the Athi River Township. The Tertiary succession comprises various lava flows. The rivers emerge from their incised valleys onto a flat piedmont zone (at an elevation of approximately 1500m) which is without significant perennial tributaries and join up with the main Athi and Tana rivers.1. Subsequently their FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-5 Version 02 . Land Use.2 Topography and Drainage The Tertiary volcanic uplands on the margin of the Rift Valley are the source areas of the present drainage network. the highest point. The valley sides as well as the headwaters generally have a thick mantle of weathered rock and soil and only rarely is bedrock seen except within the river channel. the River Chania. oriented generally southeasterly. Downstream. Maragua and Mathioya.1. From the vicinity of Mt.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Patel & Partners Study Area.5 km and an intervening relief of 50m. They have formed deeply incised valleys in long narrow catchments with steep side slopes and longitudinal profiles. developed intervening periods sub-aerial weathering.1 Geology. and also palaesoils. With exception of the Ngong Hills which rise to 2460m. Ruiru and Nairobi Rivers. 2.1 2. Drainage And Climate Geology The Study Area is overlain with an ancient core of crystalline rocks of the Basement Complex which underlies the greater part of the plateau areas of Africa which have been affected by the extensive faulting. dampen the flood response of the rivers to intense rainfall and sustain dry weather flows.B. AWSB At the southern end of the Nyandarua Range the watershed to the internal drainage system of the Rift Valley becomes an undulating plateau and from this area originate several tributaries of the River Athi including from north to south the Ndarugu. The sporadic character of the volcanic events both in space and time has dictated the lateral and vertical variability of geological succession.

Land Use. In general also there is a decrease towards the south in the rainfall at a given altitude. Humidity is greatest at dawn and lowest in the early afternoon when the temperature reaches the diurnal maximum. The two rainy seasons are therefore centered around April-May (The Long Rains) and October-November (The Short Rains). the annual rainfall values decline to 800 to 900 mm but there is little further decline towards the east. Sunshine shows a decrease with altitude. to the South within the Upper Athi catchment there is a further reduction to less than 600mm. the Thika turning northwards to join the Tana at Masinga reservoir and Athi continuing southeastward along the margin of the Yatta plateau. However. 2. Below 1500m the mean daily duration of bright sunshine ranges from 4 hours during July and August to 9 hours during the Northern Monsoon season with an annual mean of 6.1. From December to March the persistent Northeasterly monsoon brings clear sunny weather with only occasional showers. Mean annual relative humidity values range from 65% at lower elevations to 80% or more above 2500m. with an annual mean of 5 hours at 2500m.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-6 Version 02 AWSB . Associated with these lower totals is a higher coefficient of variation. Other climatic elements have a significant influence on water resources.3 Climate The climate of the area is predominantly controlled by its equatorial position and the large scale pressure systems of the African Continent and the Indian Ocean. During the intervening dry seasons monsoonal systems bring rather dry air masses. topography strongly influences the magnitude of the climatic elements and to a lesser extent their seasonal distribution. The seasonal distribution of rainfall is dominated by the movement of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which separates the Northeastern and Southeastern trade wind systems and the belt of maximum rainfall follows the position of the overhead sun with a time lag of about 4 to 6 weeks. The highest annual totals of over 2600mm occur at the windward side of summit of the Nyandarua Mountains and there is a decline with elevation which is much more rapid on the leeward slope towards the Rift Valley than on the windward side.B. Mean annual free water surface evaporation as calculated by Woodhead using Penman’s ranges from around 1800mm in piedmont zone to less than 1400mm in the Nyandarua Range Potential evapotranspiration is estimated to be about 75% of free water evaporation in the highlands and 80% or more in dryer lying areas. Patel & Partners Study Area. daily minimum temperature values decrease more rapidly than the daily maximum.8 hours. I. Throughout the area mean daily temperature varies little with season and the diurnal variation is greater than the seasonal variation. especially in their effect on the rate of evapotranspiration loss. At the edge of the piedmont zone between Nairobi and Thika. With increasing altitude. Rainfall is the climatological element of greatest water resource significance. Indeed further south in the headwaters of the Thiririka and Ruiru rivers the rainfall divide is some distance to the east of the topographic divide. However. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends courses diverge. Typically the annual average diurnal range at elevations of 1500m is 13° to 25° whilst at C C 2500m the range is from 6° to 22° C C. During the period of Southeasterly monsoon from June to October the weather is duller and cooler with occasional drizzle which is more persistent at higher elevations.

Sasumua Dam was initially fed by Sasumua River. Patel & Partners Study Area. Subsequent developments have included raising the dam. This project was completed in 1956. After completion of the Mwagu Diversion Dam. pipelines and terminal reservoirs. The Project included a water treatment plant works adjacent to the dam and a pipeline which deliver treated water to the terminal reservoir at Kabete in Nairobi. the Northern Collector Phase 1 and Phase 2 were planned to be implemented in 2001 and 2006 respectively. the associated tunnel and pipeline conveying raw water to Ngethu. However the implementation of this project stalled and Nairobi is faced with chronic water shortage resulting to water rationing in most parts of the City. Land Use.B. Thika.an intake weir and pipeline. The Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR) covers Nairobi City. In order to ensure that Nairobi City does not suffer from chronic water shortage. the next source of water which was developed is the Chania River. When Sasumua yield was fully exploited. Then Thika Dam was developed and commissioned in 1994 to feed the Mwagu / Ngethu system. initially by pumping from the river at Ngethu.1. This source was further developed by commissioning a second pipeline in 1946. it accommodates 3. This produced small quantities of poor quality water and was later abandoned. the total available water to Nairobi was close to the demand. I. The next major source. Kajiado and Machakos. This project was completed in 1984. The first recorded water source for Nairobi was commissioned in 1899. based on the Ngong River (Nairobi Dam) in the Athi catchment. Nairobi City and its neighbouring Towns are located within the Athi River catchment. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends 2. followed by a diversion dam. page 31) were developed to produce approximately 4500 m / day which was sufficient for Nairobi’s needs until the late 1930’s.waters of the Chania River. Parts of Kiambu County. AWSB 3 Land Use. During the period 1900 to 1906 the Kikuyu Springs located 18 km from the city (refer to Figure 3 3.13 million people according to the 2009 National census figures. Nairobi is spread over 696 sq km which is about 2% of the NMR area. In 1938 the first phase of development of a source based on the Ruiru River.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-7 Version 02 . Figure 3-3 on Page 3-8 highlights the region occupied by Nairobi City (yellow) in relation to the rest of the metro region. and a third pipeline then Ruiru Dam in 1949. supplemented by water diverted from the head . Socio Economic and Demographic Trends This section presents a Land Use Analysis for the proposed Study Area for Nairobi and Satellite Towns. at Mwagu which transfers water to Ngethu treatment works by gravity via a three metre diameter tunnel and a 1400 mm pipeline.2 Water Sources in the Project Area There are two main rivers in the project area. Athi and Tana Rivers. diverting the Kiburu River into Sasumua and increasing the capacity of the treatment works. Part of the waste water from these Towns flows into the Athi River deteriorating its water quality and reducing its potential as a new water source for Nairobi.

in 1927 and it was expanded to 686sq.000sq km.1 Nairobi City Boundary In the last 100yrs. Patel & Partners Study Area. Figure 3. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-8 Version 02 . The City Boundary has also been extended to include the Nairobi National Park.B. the City Boundary has been extended to cover a greater region as shown by map above. Land Use. Initially the City covered 77sq. It is from this premise that the Metropolitan Region was mooted.km. Kajiado and Machakos District. At present the entire Nairobi Metropolitan Region area is 32. Nairobi City has expanded to accommodate different functions that compete for space within its boundaries.4 on Page 3-9 shows how the city boundary has expanded over the years with the ever increasing competition among different land uses. It has been extended to include rich agricultural and livestock area in Kiambu.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends Figure 3-3: Metro Region in Relation to Nairobi AWSB 3.km in 1963. I. The urban centres within the Metropolitan Region almost share the same pattern with the CBD occupying the central or the core of the Towns.

Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Embassies. The road network in the core Nairobi is mainly international and national passing through the City Centre. These developments. Urbanized Area.2009 3. casinos and office blocks that are developing at a very high rate. Uhuru Park. Westlands exhibits the true reflection of a City within a City with every component of a fullfledged City: shopping malls. These include the State House. Patel & Partners Study Area. The road network is highly dense regular grid type and limited road space for widening. five star hotels. commercial and residential. Government Offices. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends Figure 3-4: Map Showing the Expansion of Nairobi City 1900 . Urban Area and Sub Urban Area. The old town as the CBD today has the main administration offices and commercial centre including shopping malls. The road network here is incomplete and can be described as the missing links to the core and other regions with the wider City Boundary. The area outside the City Centre covering 5 to 7km radius from the CBD is classified as urbanized area and is surrounded by ring roads. Hotels (Serena) and residential apartments. The Hill Area represents the administration area to the western part of the city. Nairobi University. with supermarkets and entertainment outlets being the main attraction at the shopping centre. City Centre. The Land use in these regions is mainly industrial.1 Nairobi City Land Use Nairobi’s Land Use contains the zoned areas of Urban and Suburban areas such as CBD. Jica. the surrounding areas are mainly medium to high density residential areas. an International Convention Centre and Government Offices. Land Use. Buru Buru has emerged as centre of the Eastlands. especially the office blocks must be consistent with infrastructural components like road network systems to avoid the traffic congestion. I. World Bank.B. Nairobi Railway Station.2 3. City Council of Nairobi. The AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-9 Version 02 .2.

The road network is mainly radial arterial roads leading to the CBD. commuters into the city of Nairobi are. long trip lengths by vehicles. The traffic characteristics of the regional towns indicate a high intensity of walk trips. the road system is the most predominant. This has led to concentration of activities within and intense traffic to and from the city. AWSB A number of road development programs are under implementation. Nairobi city contains nearly 67% of the motor vehicles in Kenya. The road network is less developed except the western area where coffee/ tea feeder roads have been developed on the ridges. but have been constrained by the major traffic snarl ups during the peak hours.2. industrial. The road network is of radial pattern with Nairobi city as the focus. Radial road corridors traverse Nairobi city and extend into the region and beyond. able to travel in the trains that stops at Athi River Railway Station. Nairobi’s strategic location has made it an important regional hub for commercial. I.B. As the Mombasa Rail line also passes through that area. The geography of NMR poses a challenge to the development of telecommunication network. financial. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-10 Version 02 . The major concentration of people and activities are along these road corridors. Within Nairobi City Southern and Northern Bypasses are under construction. education and communication in Eastern Africa. high share of work trips and high dependence on public transport modes. Land Use. The role of railway in enabling regional commuter movement is very limited though a recent feasibility study has identified a number of corridors in the city and the region for development of high technology public mass transport systems comprising mass rapid transit system (MRTS) and light Rail Transit Systems (LRTS). Nairobi-Thika road (A-2).2 Transport Transport is an important component of a spartial development plan because it determines the direction and growth. It affects the economic viability and social mobility of the region and its people. At the regional level upgrading of Nairobi-Thika Road is a major one with financial assistance from African Development Bank and the Government of China. The area outside the urbanized ring is classified as Urban and the land use is mainly residential sub-divisions. Ruiru and Limuru have been acting as dormitory towns of Nairobi. In NRM. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends bypasses under construction are earmarked to solve part of these bottlenecks and ease congestion to the CBD. Patel & Partners Study Area. Thika. 3. Besides being the political and administrative center. The completion of these road projects is going to witness more people moving to Satellite Towns forming the Nairobi Metro Region. Orbital roads are missing. The out-most ring is classified as sub-urban and its land use characteristics are Agricultural and pasturage. Most of the road-based traffic from Municipal Council of Mavoko to Nairobi utilizes the Mombasa Road. primarily the matatus. Nairobi-Eldoret-Uganda) (A-104) and Nairobi-Mombasa (A-109) are important international trunk roads carrying large volume of traffic. sub-urban towns and residential developments.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Plans are under preparation for improvement of Ngong Road an important radial corridor. There are certain areas that are lacking in infrastructure facility and telecommunication network. industrial estates and commercial centres including air ports and Nairobi National park.

The structures here are mostly storage Godowns and small manufacturing plants with the major roads being Enterprise Road and Mombasa road. Its origin in the Kenyan Towns especially Nairobi and its Satellite Towns can be traced back to the emergence of colonization. beauty parlours. One of the most striking features of residential segregation in the city is its dynamics that involves transformation into different socio-spatial manifestations. dry cleaners. It is a feature that has spread to every estate shopping centre to ease shopping. pharmacies. 3. 3.2. It is the main railway terminus in Nairobi since all offloading and loading of manufacturing materials and loading of finished goods is done here.B. Community Commercial This designation is meant to encourage organized concentration of wide variety of retail goods and services for the residents. professional office and financial services.4 Social Amenities Social amenities in NMR are also not evenly distributed over the region with Nairobi forming the Hub of both educational and health facilities and in other parts of the region which have social amenities spread from 5km to 30km between facilities. Typical uses found in neighbourhood centres include: grocery stores. 3.4 as compared to the county’s average household size of 4. service stations. currently an estimated 55% of the total population of Nairobi lives in the spatially segregated informal settlements that occupy only 5% of Nairobi’s residential area. AWSB Light industrial plants have spread towards Mlolongo along Mombasa road in the mixed use land use area.3 Residential Residential patterns in the metropolitan region are largely segregated. It is flanked by mostly the city council estates like Makongeni. Kitengela has emerged as the prime residential area for factory workers from the cement factories and the EPZ Zone. In addition to the uses specified in the neighbourhood FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-11 Version 02 . restaurants.5 Industrial This is the region between the CBD and the greater East Land.2 and 3. Nairobi and NMR have a very low household size of 3. I.6 Commercial This is a function that is mostly dominant in the CBD of the core Nairobi City.2. The term commercial implies a lot of functions: Neighbourhood Commercial This is designated to encourage the organized concentration of retail goods and services for the convenience of the immediately adjacent residential neighbourhood.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends 3. Patel & Partners Study Area.2. Like any other metropolis there are a lot of apartments and big bungalow type housing in Nairobi and low rise residential development in other parts of the region. Maringo. The industrial area is the major employment centre for casual labourers hence deemed to have the highest employment rates at any time of the day. For instance.2. Bahati along Jogoo Road and the informal settlements of Mukuru Kwa Njenga and Mukuru Nyayo and Lunga Lunga.4. One such settlement is Kibera whose high density of about 2000 people per hectare makes it one of the most densely populated informal settlements in sub-Saharan Africa. Land Use.

Carnivore are the best examples. Besides these speciality shops. drainage.7 AWSB Airport Overlay Intended to ensure the development of properties that are subject to high noise levels or accident potential from aircraft operations. These include the areas along the outer ring road. There is a need for an integrated approach for environmental planning in NMR. Mamba Village. The area around Museum Hill.8 Environmental Status The environmental status in NMR consisting of geological features. 3. entertainment and other uses catering to visitors may also be provided.2. Jomo Kenyatta Airport and Wilson Airport areas fall in this category. Environmental issues of the region have to be identified and integrated in the development of the region. Employment generating uses are provided with range of retail and service uses. particularly Nairobi City and surroundings. numerous water bodies and other green/open areas. restaurants. medical clinics and convalescent homes. Typical uses are similar to those specified in the neighbourhood commercial but with an added emphasis on uses that serve the business community.2. but not limited merchandise sales. Related uses may include lodges and clubs. national parks. these are areas around Hill Area. appliance and building supply stores and rental businesses. Commercial Recreation This accommodates facilities for residents and visitors.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. 3. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-12 Version 02 . Land Use. hills. these are areas along Ngong road. temperature. furniture. rainfall. These are areas occupying Mombasa Road from Nyayo Natioal Stadium to Mlolongo. Specialized Commercial These are mostly commercial uses that are more suitable for individual auto access than for general shopping area developments. Donholm and Fox Drive-in. the uses found in community shopping centres include. movie theatres and furniture sales. Community. Business Commercial This category is mainly developed to serve the employees of the surrounding industrial parks. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends commercial designation. In Nairobi. Due to increase in urbanization. yet inappropriate for commercial or high-employment office centre because of the proximity to residential uses. hydrology. Office Commercial This is an area for professional and financial services in locations served by primary access. In Nairobi. NMR has widespread forest lands. climate. The uses include auto sales and service. They are characterized by high level of design to complement adjacent industrial and office development. drought and flood pattern. there are more requirements of housing and other economic development that can provide more employment in the region as shown by the Land Use Map Figure 3. Westlands and Bomas of Kenya. Visitor Commercial This accommodates hotels and motels. Patel & Partners Study Area. car washes.9 on Page 3-23. Westlands and Kilimani. Splash Water World. Langata road and Yaya Centre.B. I.

Patel & Partners Study Area. Figure 3-5 below shows the NMR growth strategy interventions since 1948 up to 2009. Land Use. The second and last strategic plan was the 1973 Nairobi Metropolitan Growth Strategy. The same plans have been prepared by different agencies hence not integrated and coordinated.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. The first strategic policy for the City is contained in the 1948 Nairobi Master Plan.3. I.B. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-13 Version 02 . Socio Economic and Demographic Trends 3. The plan catered for the old small colonial city covering about 10sq. Figure 3-5: Map Showing Nairobi Metropolitan Growth Strategy AWSB 3. Presently Nairobi City does not have a strategic development and/or master plan.1 The 1948 Nairobi Master Plan This was the first comprehensive development plan for the City.km. There has been several subsequent development plans for the City but short term and Adhoc.3 The Nairobi Metropolitan Region Growth Strategies There have been various strategies in intervening years since 1973 that have been geared towards the development of the metropolitan region.

5 The 2006 Karen Langata Local Physical Development Plan AWSB This was a first attempt by Ministry of Lands to prepare plan document under new Physical Planning Act. the plan was not effectively implemented and policies measured were not enforced. Westlands.3.3.3.B.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. I. 3. 3. the plan is not valid under the current physical legislation. 3. Land Use. Lavington. Expansion of roads and support infrastructure has not been incorporated in the plan. The minimum residential plot size was reduced to 0. The policy intervention looks at the development of highrise block of multi-family residential flat units. Though the plan was prepared by the City Council itself.3.3.3 The 1992 Hill Area Zoning Plan This plan covers the Upper Hill and Community Area just outside the CBD. The implementation of the document was however poor because of conflicting political interests. Patel & Partners Study Area.3.3. high income residential neighbourhood. 4 &5 This policy review document covers high income residential area of Kileleshwa. Parklands. Thompson. transportation.9 The Redevelopment of the Eastlands Majority of low income and middle-income population in Nairobi live in Eastlands. Woodley. River Side and Spring Valley. housing and revenue and expenditure patterns. 3. The focus of the policy was to convert the area that was formerly under agricultural and low residential development to smaller plot size of I hectare (2.6 The 2006 Local Physical Development Plan for Zone 3.7 The Nairobi We Want Initiation In this policy document the City Council of Nairobi initiated the process of having greater public participation in formulating City Council policy. 3. The implementation of the policy is however poor.2 The 1973 NRM Growth Strategy This 1973-2000 Metropolitan Growth Strategy covered the City of Nairobi and its environs. Unfortunately this is still the document which the City Council still relies on. economic activities. Loresho. formerly low density. Kilimani. This plan document is however not effective as it is not related to any comprehensive and overall development plan for the city 3.5 acres). The key focus was to make provision for more housing for increased population demand. This policy document is focussed on redevelopment of housing for the low and middle-income population in FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-14 Version 02 . The plan covered the population issues. land use. The focus of this policy document was to decongest the CBD by transferring new office space to Upper Hill.3. 3.5 acres.4 The 1998 Karen-Langata Structure Plan This plan covered the most exclusive and high income and low density residential of Nairobi.8 The 2006 Nairobi Metropolitan Transport Master Plan Nairobi Metropolitan Transport Master Plan is focussed on addressing transport problems/challenges in the city. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends 3. However.

312 5. Kayole. 3. The population growth rate in Nairobi City was approximately 3.711. Patel & Partners Study Area.144 40. Dandora and pipeline has witnessed unprecedented population increase among the low and middle income earners.412 3.473 645.85% 144 410 28 1.94% 11.4 Population in Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR) According to the 2009 population census.707 429.9% 10.822.141 668 272 19 31 32 18 6. These policy documents have been initiated by the Ministry of Lands but do not relate to City Council of Nairobi Development Plan.254 744.406.164 581.7%.098.903 288 21.054 9.326 60.168 179.475 68.Table 3.797 32.540 439 667 618 968 437 329 441 377 825 1.143.3% 5.250 4.509 241.677 906.924 .3.3 below presents the population distribution in the NMR based on the 1999 and 2009 National Housing Census.6% 2.960 291 94 1.31% 3.952 556.Nairobi City alone had a population of 3.131 71.16% 207 69 FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-15 Version 02 .9% while that of the entire NMR was approximately 6.432 406.745 94. I.713 109.140 1.607 1.845.833 864.544 687.3. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends Nairobi. 3.274 27. Tena. The same policy efforts do not fully relate to City Council policy efforts.889 Enumerated population 2009 3.43% Thika Ruiru MC Thika MC Thika CC Kajiado Kajiado TC Olkejuado CC Machakos Machakos MC Mavoko MC Kangundo TC Masaku CC NMR Kenya Population density /sq.km) 1999 2009 3079 4.324 137 46 156 98 887 1.138. Km) 696 1.370 CAGR 3.675 28.11 Kikuyu-Kiambu-Ruiru-Thika Corridor Zoning Plans These are also policy efforts by The Ministry of Lands centred on the Satellite Towns of Nairobi in Kiambu District.007 218.615 AWSB 1999 2.138. Table 3-3 : Population Distribution in NMR Based on 1999 – 2009 National Housing Cencus District TC/MC/CC Area (Sq.92% 2.574 106.369.576 21.20% Nairobi Kiambu City Council Kikuyu TC Karuri TC Limuru MC Kiambu MC Kiambu CC 104. the population within Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR) was 6. The introduction of high rise blocks in Umoja.369 922. 3.281 349 957 178 4.644 143.686.010 156.B.10 Machakos –Mlolongo-Isinya-Kitengela-Ngong Corridor Zoning Plans This zoning policy plans are addressed to the Satellite Towns of Nairobi that lie in Machakos and Kajiado Districts.010 116 151 49 175 6.605 387.509 562 697 1.584 1.165 396. Land Use.4% 5.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.

Land Use. In 1962. the City had a population of 343. The net immigration flow into the city between 1979 and 1989 was 772.5 3. By 1962. the population density is quite high. 2004).Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Central Division is the most densely populated with 22. Nairobi already has about 8 per cent of the country’s total population (CBS 2001) and 25 per cent of Kenya’s urban population (UN-Habitat 2001).6 in 1998 and is currently 2. there are differences.500 people. The population of Nairobi grew from 8. 2004).1 Population Dynamics in Nairobi City. This increase will put even more pressure on the available resources. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-16 Version 02 . Population Growth Population is a major driver of environmental change in Nairobi and as such is a determinant of other parameters such as solid-waste-generation rates. But there is also the phenomenon of diurnal migration of people from the environs who commute daily into Nairobi for purposes of employment. diurnal migration first needs to be quantified and factored into the City development policies.2 Factors Affecting Population Growth in Nairobi Fertility is one of the principal components of population dynamics. 2004).1 by 2010 (CBS et al. it is projected that the City’s population will be 3. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends 3. Projections are that diurnal migration will continue unless deliberate efforts are made to develop satellite towns and employ strategies to reduce the daily influx of people to the city.Between the 1948 and 1962 censuses.1 per cent of Kenya’s total surface area. although some of this could be attributed to extension of the City’s Boundaries . Although it covers only 0. One of the targets of the National Population Policy for Sustainable Development is to stabilize the fertility rate at 2. the others being mortality and migration (UN 1973 in CBS et al. For instance. Some areas of Kibera Division have extremely high densities. The other feature of Nairobi’s population is its distribution. there were over twice as many adult males as females. but. Indeed. Patel & Partners Study Area. the population grew at an average rate of 5. In order adequately to tackle these problems. the total fertility rate in Nairobi fell from 4. land-use patterns and settlement. 3. Figure 3-6 on Page 3-17 shows the population distribution in Nairobi City in the 1990’s. and the attraction of Nairobi as a market for goods and services. education or trade.5.079 people per square kilometre (CBS 2001).Population growth is partly explained by net migration into the City. Taking the 2009 census figures as a baseline. opportunities for higher education and higher wage employment. 2003).164 persons per square kilometre. The City’s overall population density is 3. This underlines the deliberate efforts by the Government to contain population growth (CBS et al.6 in 1989 to 2. and water consumption.3 Population Distribution in Nairobi City. however.B.7 (CBS et al.284 people per square kilometre (CBS 2001).624 (NEMA. Even within divisions.8 million by 2015 (CBS 2001).5.9 per cent per annum.5. while Kibera Division has 1.579 in 1948 (Rakodi 1997).6 per cent in the previous 12-year period. The forces motivating rural-urban migration to Nairobi include better economic prospects. I. universities could be established at regional levels so that higher education opportunities are taken closer to people in the countryside. 2004). especially in the slum areas. this varies significantly across the different divisions. AWSB 3. Fertility reduction became the thrust of the country’s population policy as early as 1967. In some areas of the City.000 in 1901 to 118. compared with 7. For instance.

Kiambu. Informal settlement areas like Mukuru kwa Njenga. the population density in the Town Councils of Kikuyu.4 Population Density In Nairobi Metropolitan Region The average population density for Nairobi City was 4509 persons per square km according to the 2009 census results.Kasarani and Kahawa are medium density areas mostly settled by people who are in medium to high income. Kitisuru.km in Kajiado to about 437 persons per sq. The Northern parts of NMR which includes the Districts of Kiambu and Thika covers about 10% of NMR area and had about 27% of NMR population and the compound annual growth of population over the past decade was 2. Ruiru and Thika have recorded a population growth of over 4% per FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-17 Version 02 .B.km. The densities in these regions are very high due to the short distances to work places and low rent on housing.6%. There is a strong correlation between work places and settlement patterns. Patel & Partners Study Area. Ruiru and Machakos is in the range of 400600 persons per sq. though physical infrastructure is near obsolete. As compared to this. 3. Mukuru Nyayo and Kibera are home to most of the population that work in the Industrial Area. Limuru. Karuri. the population density ranges between a low of 18 persons per sq. Kiambu. Karuri. Thika and Kangundo is around 1000-1500 persons per sq. I. Kilimani. The population density in the Municipal Council of Limuru. However. In County Councils of NMR.5. maisonettes and semi detached Bungalows. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends Figure 3-6: Population Distribution in Nairobi City in 1990s AWSB The Population within Nairobi Divisions has varied characteristics and densities. Land Use.km in Kiambu. the urban centres of Kikuyu. These areas are characterized by apartment development.km.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.

However. Figure 3-8 on Page 3-19 displays the distribution of population density in the NMR. Patel & Partners Study Area. Figure 3-7: Distribution of Schools and 276 Sub Locations FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-18 Version 02 . In Nairobi. The concentration of schools per sub-location is higher within the Nairobi City Boundary. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends annum.4 percent in the Southern area of NMR. Figure 3-7 below shows the distribution of schools and 275 sub-locations in the Metropolitan Region. Significant population growth in Ngong. Kajiado district in the Southern part of NMR covers about 68% of NMR area and contains about 10% of NMR population.B. Kajiado has the least school distribution per sub location.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. I. 3.District of Machakos which is in the Eastern part of NMR covers about 20% of NMR area and accommodates about 16% of NMR population. One would have to travel a distance of 5km and 30km to avail these facilities. These health services facilities have tremendously improved awareness about ailments especially child mortality rates hence the stead population increase.7 million people.94% per annum in the past decade. the situation is very different especially in the southern parts of the metro. The densities are a strong basis for determining the income distribution. public schools are supplemented by the private academies that help ease the congestion in public primary schools. Half of this figure is concentrated in Nairobi with varying densities that are defined by high concentration in the slum areas. These private schools have reduced distances covered by school going children to within a few metres. According to the 2009 population census figures the NRM population is pegged at 6. AWSB In the health sector.550. The total number of schools in the NMR area are 1. there are clinics and dispensaries that provide complimentary services. Land Use. aside from city council run hospitals and other public hospitals. Ongata Rongai and Kiserian areas of Kajiado District has contributed to an overall compound annual growth of 5. Population growth rate in this area was 1.6 Education and Health Facilities Social amenities in NMR are not evenly distributed over the region with Nairobi forming the Hub of both educational and health facilities and in other parts of the region. as compared with to rest of the Metropolitan Region. consistent with the high population densities.

Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Land Use. I. Patel & Partners Study Area.B. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends Figure 3-8: Distribution of Population Density in Nairobi Metropolitan Region 2009 AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-19 Version 02 .

is estimated to be 5.7 3. Fifth. is the opportunity of strengthening the role of Nairobi as the regional tourist circuit hub. There is thus. Province or District. 3. Land Use. In fact. To understand employment patterns in Nairobi Two spatial development patterns have been conceptualized. Secondly. Since data on the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) is not readily available for any Region. education. Presently the people in the age group 15-64 are considered as the labour force.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Based on revised WPR of NMR and the component spatial units. The occupation structures of the Urban areas have been proposed based on their envisaged functions.5% to GRDP. properly managed can transform itself into the region’s transportation and logistics hub. by 2030. I. The Secondary and Tertiary Sectors are mainly urban based activities and Nairobi. this provides a basis upon which Nairobi can develop the knowledge economy in service of the country and the region.1 Development Potential Main Economic Activities –Now and Into the Future It is known that Nairobi contributes significantly to the national GDP. Patel & Partners Study Area.2 AWSB Employment Kenya Vision 2030 envisages a sustained growth of GDP at 10% up to 2030. First.7.B. the ratio of formal to informal employment being 1:3:96 in NMR and 1:3:98 in Nairobi with development . the new opportunities available to Nairobi and the entire Metropolitan Area hinges on its central and strategic location within the African Continent. • Mono Nuclei Pattern • Multi-Nuclei Pattern FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-20 Version 02 . it is envisaged that there will be formalization of the economy. it is assumed that the ratios will normalize to 1:2 in NMR and 1:1 in Nairobi City. Forestry and Quarrying) is reported to contribute 24. This means that the NMR. commercial. an objective of Nairobi Metro Vision 2030. by 2030. Nairobi is host to a large number of regional and international bodies which serve the region and the world. building on the fact that Nairobi can be transformed into a transport.4million. Fourth. The employment size in NMR. the labour force size will reduce. with socio-economic development. the Primary Sector (Agriculture. Nairobi and its Metropolitan Region are centrally located within the global air transport network and on the Northern Transport Corridor. However. is proposed to be 35% and of rural areas to be 40%. it is then possible to build the requisite financial base to service this development. Considering employment and earnings as a proxy. The GDP of NMR has to grow at a higher rate of 15% in the initial decades. Presently the economy of NMR is highly informal. the employment size in NMR as a total. the large number of educational institutions in and around Nairobi provides an opportunity to turn it an international centre for education and research. an almost threefold increase from the present. therefore is a major location for these Sectors. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends 3. However. in the sub-regions and in urban centres have been forecast. research and diplomatic hub. The WPR of urban areas.7. The remaining 75% is contributed by the Secondary (manufacture) and Tertiary Section (services) Sector. a huge opportunity to transform Nairobi into the region and the continents diplomatic hub. Thirdly.

and meeting the day to day needs of the Constituent Division (Constituency) population including work. I. It would result in a dispersed pattern of trips. Patel & Partners Study Area. Kamukunji and Starehe. long delays. distributed over the city spatial framework.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Development of multi-nuclei would bring a better relationship between home and work place. It would optimize investments on transport system development and operations and promote system productivity. Most of the employment in the secondary and tertiary sectors is concentrated within or around the Central Business District (CBD) of the city.7. It would minimize trip lengths and thus help in reducing and managing travel demand. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends i) Mono-Nuclei Pattern Presently Nairobi City may said to be a Mono-Nuclei City. health and other needs. economically inefficient and socially disruptive. an ardent objective of city planning and development.3 District Centers A number of locations for development of District Centers. AWSB 3. next to CBD. It could be as high as 95% with the Tertiary Sector (including the emerging quaternary and quinnary sectors) accounting for a share of 75%. Land Use. standing second. etc. high congestion. Many of the FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-21 Version 02 . have been identified. through efficient planning and rigorous zoning supported by an effective and extensive transport system. ii) Multi-Nuclei Pattern To alleviate the problems and disadvantages of the Mono-Nuclei Structure it is the endeavor of the city to plan and promote a Multi-Nuclei Structure This pattern may be achieved over a period of time. the CBD will service the 3 Divisions of Makadara. need to be implemented to promote the desired pattern of development. Extrapolating the present structure under this concept of spatial concentration of activities (employment). resulting in long trip lengths. a share of 80% of the potential employment is assumed to be within the CBD area and the rest 20% distributed amongst other work centers of the City. Of the 8 Divisions. increasing accidents. The pattern of development is spatially inequitable. The above two sectors account for about 70% of the employment in the city.0 million. recreation. A number of other facilitating policies. commercial. developed and managed as Centers of activities with large employment of wide type and as mixed use development. incentives. This share would increase in times to come as the share of Primary Sector within the Metropolitan City would decline. with one center for each Division (constituency). high resource (energy and land) consumption and increasing environmental pollution. to serve a population size of up to 1. disincentives. The concentration of employment within the CBD is a primary cause for a host of transport problems the City faces everyday like high intensity. business.B. in the hierarchy of nuclei. The other centres identified are • Karen/Langata • Dagoretti • Westlands • Gigiri • Kasarani • Githurai • Komorock • Industrial Area/Airport These District Centers need to be planned. directionally imbalanced flows concentrated along a few radial corridors. reduce congestion and balance directional flows.

The main issues which need immediate attention are: the interaction between the different administrative units of the metropolis at the primary stage.5 Land Use Analysis in the Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR) Land Use is an integral component in any planning process. the envisaged urban structure is a means of promoting sustainable development of the city transport system. An extent of 100 to 150 Ha of land needs to be reserved for the District Centers at each of the 6 locations. It is important to understand the profile of each Local Authority in order to appreciate the push and pull factors that are attractive to job seekers. AWSB Another striking feature in Land Use distribution as shown in Figure 3-9 on Page 3-23 is the fact that apart from Machakos.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. leading to over concentration of employment in the CBD and industrial area. Land Use structures of the following Urban Centres of NMR. reservation of land for the proposed District Centers and formulation and implementation of zoning regulations are key requirement for the success of the Multi-Nuclei Development Structure. Land Use. public purpose and public utility. I. It helps in estimating and analysing the quantum of land put to various uses and also the quantum of land which can be utilized for future development.4 Land Use Distribution in the Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR) The Nairobi City lacks a clear planning strategy has led to planned. resulting in traffic congestion and environmental pollution and rapid growth of informal settlements.7. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends traffic problems would be minimized if not eliminated altogether. In short. Land use within the NMR is divided into seven (7) categories namely residential. This section examines the local authorities in the NRM based on the current economic potentials. industrial.7. recreational. improving its financial and institutional structure and management. The main problems faced by NRM are providing shelter. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-22 Version 02 . show that each Town has some portion of land under agricultural use which if required can be utilized for further development of Towns. The economic activities in an area are the benchmarks that define Land Use Distribution and trends in population growth and densities. all other towns have very less recreational spaces. basic urban services and transportation infrastructure. and formulating environmental policies and programmes. Rationalization of Land Use Pattern in each of the Divisions. Patel & Partners Study Area. haphazard pattern of development. Green spaces are very essential for both the health of the Town and the Population.B. educational. 3. commercial. the growth in urban population concentrations and dependence upon employment availability and informal settlements and high incidence of urban poverty 3.

I.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Patel & Partners Study Area.B. Land Use. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends Figure 3-9: The Map Showing the Land Use Distribution in the Metropolitan Region AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-23 Version 02 .

000 3. 10.232 425.8 Population Size and Growth in Metropolitan Regions The projected population (2007) of the metropolitan region was estimated at 5.881 5.141.176.462 687.978 107.990. it is estimated that by 2030. IV.5% predominantly urban population.712 809. IV.041 139.879 976.282 88.180. III.376. Kenya will be 61.658.351 164.910 15.276 931.320 529. Land Use.167 40. Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development.992 9.500 12. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends 3. 2008 The population is projected to grow to 7. Table 3-4 below illustrates these projection based on the individual centres.096 18.255 732. V. It is also estimated that the Nairobi Metropolitan region will accommodate a bulk of this urban population.022 422.053 129.923.980.853 104.212.999.969. III.000 in each) Total Urban Eastern Metro Machakos Mavoko Kangundo/Tala Sum 2 new towns( with 100.164 1.290 238.787.000 in each) Total Urban Southern Metro Ngong Kitengela Ongata Rongai Kiserian Kajiado Sum 2 new towns( with 100.712 200.913 954.199 936.788 3.879 597. The Projected Populations in the NMR are given in Tables 3-5 and 3-6 on Page 3-25.887.273 people.295 150.640.000 1. Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR) Core Nairobi Total Urban within NMR Outside Nairobi Metropolitan Region (ONMR) Total Urban within NMR (without Nairobi) Rural NORTHERN METRO Urban Rural EASTERN METRO Urban Rural SOUTHERN METRO Urban Rural NORTHERN METRO Ruiru Thika Limuru Kiambu Juja Kikuyu Karuri sum Two new towns( with 100.910 973.446 234.178 18.492 2.135.576 2.910 Source: adopted.138.869 40.000 2.380 218.526 412.336 1.196 362.045.6 million people (2012).889 4.934 976.000 10.963.000 4.180.978 507. VI.000 in each) Magadi Total Urban 6.376.712 642.584 1. 5b I.786.858 139.369 4.448 2.641 4.911 570.3 million (2030) –Due to the rapid urbanization. Table 3-4: Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR) .929 2.925 154.. Patel & Partners Study Area. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-24 Version 02 .188 58.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.312 265. III.281 241.050 1. II.526 200.641 223. of units Spatial Units 2009 2030 1 2 3 4 a b 5a 5b 5c 5a I.230.135.440 507.8 million (2022).526 593.2030: Population Forecast No.295 810.519.179 200.664 70.664 3.295 976.B.381 7. I.749. VII.770. V. II.557 507.978 537.631 1. and 14. II.673 69.295 1.179 AWSB 241. 5c I.

8 43. 2008 3.1m 13.4 4.40% 6.8 17.2 16.90% 5.8 23.20% 1.40% 7.265 161.8 16.B.90% 1.40% 6. The first assumption is that population will concentrate in Nairobi City and thus development in the NMR will be Nairobi Centric.2 Source: adopted.397 54.117 13. A low growth rate will be witnessed in Nairobi (2.20% Growth Low 2020 Rate High Growth Nairobi Centric 5.2 2030 62. mass rapid transport system (light rail and bus rapid transit).216 5.7 31. These could see increased growth in the outlying areas and an influx of population to the NMR FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-25 Version 02 .249 41.382 These scenarios should be rationalised in light of:1.689 43.7 12.841 42.30% 3.1 Future Population Patterns-2035 The population growth within NMR will follow different growth rates.651 6. Land Use.3 2012 41.3 61.20% 2.8 18.3 61.935 236.13m 16.903 199.141 19.135 49.100 26.387 12.576 6. The outlying areas in the NMR will also witness low growth rates due to focus on Nairobi city.7 20.7m 26616 8.310 24.7 2017 47.212 63.591 1.4 41.2 14.1 38.1 35.00% 4. 4.8 54.457 155.953 1.879 34.40% 5.4m 21411 6.861 192.8 19.447 8.5 22.9 9.93% 2.3 24. In 1999 Urban in 2009 Pop.339 22. Table 3-6 below captures the growth options under this scenario within the metropolitan local authorities.90% 1.222 53. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends Table 3-5: Projected Population up to 2035 Year Total National Population Total Urban Population Metropolitan Population Urban % of National Population NMR % of National Population NMR % of Urban Population 1999 28.571 1.2 16. 3.495 11.628 22.233 23.8.2 46.5 2009 36.0 6.549 38.8 37.0 21.308 207. Two assumptions are advanced to project the spatial distribution of population up to 2035.574 3.2 5.746 4. AWSB Table 3-6: Growth Options under High and Low Growth Nairobi Centric Development Scenario Local Authority Urban Pop.8%) due to urbanisation and uptake of modern urban culture and the average household size of 3.3 2022 52.100 88.3 9.428 313.20% 2.057 236.853 239. The second assumption envisages that future development in NMR will see population distributed to the areas outside Nairobi City in a Multi Centric Pattern of Growth.2 High and Low Growth Nairobi Centric Development Scenario Nairobi will continue to dominate as the primate city and this will see population and activities concentrate within it.981 7. I.0%.223 140.1 10.6 18.383 3.5 12.6 29.90% 1.442 9028 109.0 35.4 70.562 113.1 53.739 248.6m 21.763 34.30% 2.7 63. The influence of transport system changes and development within NMR – bypass.3m Low 2030 Low 2035 High 2020 High 2030 High 2035 Nairobi city Kiambu Limuru Karuri Kikuyu Thika Machakos Kajiado Ruiru 2.40% 8.386 29. High growth rates might be achieved due to the anticipated vision 2030 and Nairobi Metro 2030 projects which will make Nairobi an attractive world class city.7 40.7 5.053 214.326 428.20% 19.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.04m 11.538 285.814 4.00% 1.40% 8.794 474. Patel & Partners Study Area.20% 5.54m 2.7 88.4m 22. Growth Rate Growth Rate Low Growth Nairobi Centric 2.8.80% 1.332 185. express ways.341 858.30% 3.2m 29676 9.00% 2.574 6.0 2035 68.3 7. Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development.3 2027 58.9 23. Two possibilities are considered.728 18.00% 2.90% 5.853 5.281 169. High Growth and Low Growth.

It is an established Industrial Town with agro-processing industries and vehicle assembly. 3.108 307. Table 3-7: Population Growth Patterns Within NMR Between 1999 .755 57. Although the Town lost the leather tannery.574 6.154 1.20% 2.00% 7.80% 2.544 7. This would reduce pressure on NMR due to decreased rural – urban migration.3 High and Low Growth Multi Centric Development Scenario Under the Multi Centric Scenario.383 3. Former pasture lands to the East and South-West have been transformed into residential suburbs.239 262. The Town has a good network of internal roads linking the central part of the residential areas.40% 7.225 11. a tributary of the Athi River runs on the boundary of the Municipality to the North and its many water-falls is a tourist attraction.90% 5.435 21.085 65.80% 6.96m AWSB 1. they will retain a significant amount of local indigenous population and attract new immigrants.562 113.853 5.2035 Local Authority Urban Pop.878 403.90% 1.442 9. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends 2.410 36.757 1.26m 7.10% 3.100 26.861 192.903 199.25m 20.746 4.733 965.785 12.814 4. Effects of devolved system of government – if all counties develop their areas to meet high standards.100 88. Its hinterland constitutes large pineapple plantations to the North and to the East of the Town. Land Use.30% 3.832 7.00% 5.4m 28.674 13. River Chania. Thika Town has both road and rail connections to Nairobi. The old town area of Thika Municipality remains the commercial and administrative hub.141 19.508 524973 6.B.9.640 27.635 38.4m 4. It has an established terminus for all public transport vehicles that bring traffic from the hinterland.395 226.289 42.309 28. Patel & Partners Study Area. Further to the East is the Kilimanbogo Wildlife Sanctuary.201 149. Table 3-7 captures the growth patterns based on High and Low Growth MultiCentric Development Scenario. Growth Rate Growth Growth Low 2020 Rate Rate Low High Growth Growth Nairobi Nairobi Centric Centric Low 2030 Low 2035 High 2020 High 2030 High 2035 Nairobi city Kiambu Limuru Karuri Kikuyu Thika Machakos Kajiado Ruiru 2.40% 6.423 216.409 38. it is now home of food industries mainly flour milling and confectioneries.90% 2. The Nanyuki line of the Kenya Railways passes through the Town and the industrial area. It is the second oldest Municipality within the Metropolitan Region after the City of Nairobi.369 282. however the main difference is that concentration of population and activities will distributed to Multiple Centres of Development.50% 3.50% 2.344 6.6m 25.00% 2.891 49.863 81. In 1999 Urban in 2009 Pop. Two options for High Growth and Low Growth will take place as explained in the previous section.40% 9. I.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.117 13.812 173.50% 3.90% 5.14m 13.435 1.Yatta Road and Nairobi-Garissa Road (A2).441 191. Nairobi will lose its dominance as the primate city and this will see increased growth and development of the outlying areas of the NMR.304 23.506 5.20% 3.4m 32.00% 3.8.439 263.028 109.109 27. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-26 Version 02 .40% 8.20% 2.30% 4.202 8.00% 2.265 161.178 51.20% 3. The Town Center lies east of north of the Thika .5m 23.933 49.779 455.90% 4.985 69.6m 38.955 6.1 Satellite Towns in Nairobi Metropolitan Region Thika The Municipal Council of Thika lies to the North of the City of Nairobi at a distance of 40 km along the Nairobi-Garissa highway.170 254.655 10.574 3.9 3.13m 16.80% 2. New institutions have located within the town mainly towards the East.274 350.

2 Kiambu The Town is situated about 15kms north of Nairobi.9. The Township is also accessible through Kikuyu Road which is an extension of Ngong Road (C60) and also Dagoretti Road feeding also from Ngong Road. It is at the foot of the Aberdare Ranges to and the east of the Great Rift Valley. Due to the proximity of the Town to the Nairobi Metropolitan Area.4 Ruiru Ruiru is located about 20 km to the north of Nairobi City Centre on Thika Road. It serves a rich agricultural area in a hitherto marginal agro-ecological zone. The only employment base is in the service sector mainly for the public institutions situated in the Town. Ruiru Municipality was hived off from Kiambu County Council in the early 1990’s to enable provision of services. It has a small industrial base of steel rolling. Ruiru Town is home to a number of light industries that process farm produce. 3. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends 3. e. The Southern bypass from Mombasa Road through Ngong Forest (when constructed) passes through the Town and joins Nakuru Road at Gitaru. but finances are a major constraint. re-cycled oil refining. The Township is the commercial center for the hinterland and that sustains its economic activities together with the shoe factory and dairy activities.B.9. It is approximately 20 km from Nairobi. The catchment of many wetlands within the town council area forms the kitchen garden for the city of Nairobi.6 Limuru Limuru is 40km to the north of the City of Nairobi. cloth cutting factory etc.9.3 Machakos Machakos is 40km to the North – East of the city of Nairobi off the Nairobi-Mombasa Highway. Patel & Partners Study Area. The main road within Kiambu is highly congested as the shops and hawkers occupy the valuable road space. Nairobi. The area is also well endowed with dairy farming.9. The environs are home to subsistence farmers and there is little industrial activity. The Township Area is mainly a commercial area for the numerous industries that were set-up at the beginning of the 20th century. the Town has witnessed unprecedented growth during the past decade. 3. colleges. judiciary and little agro-processing at Mua Hills. for the rapidly growing population in the region between Nairobi and Thika.9. It is also home to the shoe manufacturing factory (BATA). The Municipality is in an agriculturally rich area with large tea plantations of multinational companies besides medium farms. Traffic from Ruiru is mostly to the Nairobi Metropolitan Region. AWSB 3. Land Use. . It is linked to the city of Nairobi through Limuru Road or Nakuru Road. The Municipality has identified problems of congestion and unreliable public transport and is in the process of initiating remedial measures. 3.5 Kikuyu The Township is accessible from the main Nairobi-Nakuru Highway. I. The hinterland has many coffee plantations in and around besides a lot of educational institutions resulting in high volumes of student population. Ruiru Town is served by rail and road transport with direct linkage to Nairobi. research institutions. There is thriving horti-culture farming within the area. Other functions of the area are that of a dormitory town for Nairobi.g. The FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-27 Version 02 .Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. There is regular commutation between Kiambu and Nairobi as many residents of Kiambu are employed in various professions in Nairobi. Limuru Town Center is approximately 4kms off Nakuru Road or Kamirithu. Thika and Mavoko Municipalities. Ruiru borders Kiambu.

8 Kajiado Kajiado is 80km to the South of the City of Nairobi. It has a common Boundary at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport. 3. The first EPZ was established in the Town in early 1980’s and is a beneficiary of AGOA. However.The administrative area together with the hospital is 3km to the south of the town centre. The main economic lifeline for Karuri area is subsistence farming as a kitchen garden for Nairobi City. AWSB 3.The industrial base of the Municipality located around Athi River. It is linked to Nairobi by the NairobiNamanga Road (A109) which branches out from Mombasa Road at Athi River.7 Karuri Karuri is approximately 16 km from Kikuyu Township and 10 kms from Kiambu.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. The residential areas of the Municipality are to the north and north-west of the town centre. the latter are increasingly being replaced by housing development.9 Mavoko The Municipal Council of Mavoko lies to the Southeast of the City of Nairobi.9. 3. Other major industries include cement factories (3). meat processing (KMC) and the leather tannery. to the North-East by Kangundo/Tala Town Council and to the South-West by Kitengela (Kajiado District). Kajiado Town is an administrative and service town for the greater Kajiado District.Apart from the road links to the City of Nairobi through Nakuru and Limuru Roads and also from Kiambu through Nazarene Hospital. There is regular commuting between Limuru and Nairobi.9. There are no industries of any kind within Kajiado. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends market is a transit point for vegetables that are grown as the hinterland as far as Githunguri and Kinale in Lari. The Town Center is along the Nairobi-Mombasa Highway and at the junction of Namanga-Nairobi highway. The main economic services within the Town Council area are mainly in services. The Town Center also straddles the Nairobi-Mombasa Railway line. There is no direct link between Karuri Town Center and the City of Nairobi. other than through Limuru Road and Ruaka.Population has increased tremendously due to the massive intrusion of the residential developments between the airport along Mombasa road. are large tea and coffee estates. both by road and rail. I. The valley also the storm drainage for the town flowing into Kajiado River.9. Kitengela is a residential area for the Export Processing Zone (EPZ) and cement factories located within Mavoko Municipality. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-28 Version 02 . To the North and West of the Township. Railways have established major rail stop workshops in Limuru. To the North of the centre along the Kajiado-Nairobi Road are the education institutions at a distance of 3km. the railway line to Kisumu/Kampala traverses through the township. The Limuru dairy has a milk processing plant in the Township.B. The main corridor for public transport is along the Nairobi-Namanga Road. River Athi and in the Kitengela surroundings. Recent proposals to locate the ICT centre at the Athi River (Mavoko) increases its significance as a major growth centre in NMR. They are separated by a valley and Magadi rail line of the Kenya Railways. has continued to increase with new industries moving into the area. Land Use. The Municipality is bordered to the East by Municipal Council of Machakos. Patel & Partners Study Area.

Schools and health centre facilities are not adequate.4 Inadequate Infrastructure & Utilities The provision of infrastructure and utilities in Nairobi Metropolitan Region is poor.5 Poor Community and Social Services Nairobi Metropolitan Region has inadequate community and social services to meet the rising demand.10. the rate of population growth is not matched with the rate of economic growth. Although Nairobi has a higher level of access to services. Patel & Partners Study Area.000500. water supply and waste disposal is low. Unfortunately. sports and recreation al facilities.B. 3. 3. 3. I.10. At the national level the housing supply is a low 35.10. the situation is worse in other smaller towns in the metropolitan region. This is reflected in increased unemployment and prevalent poverty (ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends 3. electricity connection at 75% of households.000 units per year compared to a high demand of 150.000 cubic metre per day compared to the low water supply of 400.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.1 Depressed Population & Demographic Indicators Like other regions in Kenya.000 units per year (ministry of National planning and vision 2030). Land Use. piped water at 76% and sewer connection at 66% of households.2 Inadequate Housing Kenya continues to experience serious housing shortage.10. Nairobi Metropolitan Region is experiencing very rapid urban population growth. 2008) 3. The result is decreased average per capita and house hold income. primary school FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-29 Version 02 . 2008).10.000 cubic metre per day. The household level of access to electricity.10 Challenges Facing Nairobi Metropolitan Region Besides the opportunities and great development potential. they are ill-equipped and poorly maintained and managed. The prolonged housing shortage has led to the proliferation of unplanned and informal settlements. The Metropolitan Region in 2010 water demand was estimated at 1. It is also noted that even these facilities are available. Nairobi Metropolitan Region is faced with several challenges and threats. In 2003 for example. These include: • Depressed performance in population and demographic indicators • Inadequate Housing • Depressed Economic and Employment Opportunities • Inadequate Infrastructure and Utilities • Poor Community and Social Services • Inadequate Transportation Services • Environmental Pollution • Poor Safety and Insecurity Concerns • Ineffective Legal and Governance Institutions. This is also true for open spaces.3 AWSB Depressed Economic Performance and Employment The rapid population growth in the metropolitan region is not matched with increased economic performance. 3. Nairobi metropolitan region is therefore faced with increased poverty (ministry of metropolitan Development.000. Nairobi has overall poverty index of 21% ( KNBS 2007).

I. the following measures have been undertaken • Establishment of the Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development • Formulation of Policy Framework.Nairobi Metro 2030 • Preparation of Nairobi Metropolitan Spatial Plan • Improvement of Housing • Improvement of Economic and Investment Opportunities • Improved Infrastructure and Utilities • Provision of Better Community and Social Services • Improved Transportation System • Improved Safety and Security • Effective Legal and Governance Institutions Note: Metropolitan Regions are now a reality in developing countries. The Metropolitan Region is also experiencing increased air pollution due to increased motor vehicle traffic and emission from processing factories in Nairobi.10.B. The Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development has no mandate over the formation. Socio Economic and Demographic Trends net attendance ratio was 85% and secondary schools at 32%. Patel & Partners Study Area. administration and management of Local Authorities. regional commuter distances are in excessive 30-40 kilometre long. Land Use. Nairobi Metropolitan Region presents great development potential in Kenya and the East African region. This sector is responsible for causing traffic congestion. of which 30-40% are in Nairobi. In the Metropolitan Region urban transport is expensive and poorly run. Within the City. Under the Local Government Act.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. 3. Kikuyu and Limuru. 3. Mavoko. The situation is lower and worse in other smaller Towns in the Metropolitan Region. 3.000 units. all the Local Authorities report to the Ministry of Local Government. Public transport in Nairobi is mainly run by the private matatu sector. Rift valley and Eastern. Kenya’s car population is between 400-500. The Local Authorities are not ready to forego their independence and report to the new Metropolitan Ministry. The metropolitan Region is set to be an international business and service hub.8 Ineffective Legal & Government Institutions Nairobi Metropolitan Region brings together 15 Local Authorities of different resource base and different political persuasion and is spread over four provinces: Nairobi.10. Ruiru. 3.6 Inadequate Transportation Services Nairobi has severely limited mobility and poor transport system. This is mainly due to inadequate disposal of wastewater and solid waste.7 Environmental Pollution Nairobi City and its Metropolitan Region is experiencing increased environmental pollution. Central. Other than Nairobi the other Local Authorities have extremely limited financial and technical capacity. This means that Nairobi has a high car dependence level compared to other towns.10.10. Thika. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 3-30 Version 02 . accidents and flouting traffic rules.9 AWSB Way Forward for Metropolitan Region In order to achieve effective development in Nairobi Metropolitan Region.

9% 2. I.2% 3.7% 4.1 Review of Existing Reports Demographic Trends Adopted in Previous Studies to Calculate Water Demand The Howard Humphreys ‘’Long Term Development Plan’’ Regional Studies (1986) was based on Intercensal Data from 1969 to 1979 and projections were presented upto the year 2010.1% 3. Table 4-1: Comparison of Population Growth Rates Used In Previous Studies / Intercensal Growth Rates Source i AWSB Period 1969 . Hydraulic Network Modelling – Seureca / Cas Consulting Engineers (August 2007) 1999 – 2005 2005 – 2010 2010 – 2020 2020 .3% 3. The present Study has the benefit of recently published population data by Central Bureau of Statistics for the Year 2009.7% 3. Uniconsult (March 2007) and Seureca / Cas (August 2007) have based their analysis for Water Demand on Intercensal Data 1969 – 1979.1999 1999 – 2009 Population Growth Rate 4.5% 3.4% 3.0% 2. Diagnostic of the Current Situation – Sogreah / Cape Consult January 2005.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.1979 1979 – 1989 1989 . 1979 – 1989 and 1989 – 1999 respectively. 1999 – 2006 2006 – 2008 2008 – 2010 2010 – 2012 2012 – 2014 2014 – 2016 2016 – 2018 2018 – 2020 iv Water Supply and Sewerage Services Demand Forecast for Nairobi City – Uniconsult Kenya (March 2007) & Nairobi Water and Sewerage Institutional Restructuring Project. A comparison of growth rates adopted under the previous studies with actual intercensal growth rates is given in Table 4-1 below.7% 4.3% 5.B. Subsequent Studies by other Consultants – Sogrea / Cape Consult (2005).0% Central Bureau of Statistics (Intercensal Results) ii Howard Humphreys – Long Term Development Plan (Regional Studies) 1986 1985 . Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast Chapter 4 - Water Demand Forecast 1 1.3% 4.2030 FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-1 Version 02 .2010 iii Nairobi Water and Sewerage Emergency Physical Investments Project.9% 4.8% 2.1995 1995 – 2000 2000 .8% 3.0% 4.3% 3.9% 5.

FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-2 Version 02 . 1.000 2010 3.000 167. Table 4-3 below summarizes the population and water demand forecast for 1985. The water demand forecast for Nairobi and other Regional Areas is given in Table 4-4 below.300 219.800 In 2010 the average per capita is 193 l/d (the rate includes others demands and UfW). The population growth rates adopted by the Sogreah / Cape Studies are marginally lower than the actual intercensal growth rates (see Table 9 above).B.800 596.000 132.400 326.000 81. Table 4-3 : Projections of Water Demand for Nairobi – Howard Humphreys (June 1985) Year 1985 1.200 745.950.3 Water Demand Forecast in Previous Studies The water demand forecast for Nairobi City have been updated at different times under a number of previous studies as detailed below. Table 4-2: Per Capita Consumption Rates Adopted in Previous Studies Per Capita Consumption Rates l/cap/day Urban Areas High Class Housing i) ii) Ministry of Water & “Practice Manual 2005” Irrigation 250 Medium Class Housing 150 Low Class Housing 75 IC 75 250 150 Kiosk 20 IC 75 275 170 Kiosk 20 IC 75 170 Kiosk 20 60 50 40 High Potential Rural Areas Medium Potential Low Potential 60 50 40 Long Term Development Plan – Howard Humphrey (1986) Water Demand Forecast for Nairobi City.100 203.400 65. 1.100 51.000 1995 1.700 3.162.000 377.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.100 71. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast The population growth rates adopted by the Howard Humphreys and Uniconsult and Seureca / Cas Studies are relatively higher than the actual intercensal growth rates published by the Central Bureau of Statistics.860.200 1.3.500 93.035. I.900 261.000 Population Nairobi Population Served Domestic Demand (m /d) Commercial-Industrial-Public Water Demand Total Demand Add UfW (20%) 3 Total Water Demand m /day 3 1.2 Per Capita Water Consumption Rates Used in Previous Studies Table 4-2 shows a comparison of Per Capita Water Consumption Rates between those recommended in the Ministry of Water and Irrigation “Practice Manual 2005” and those used under previous studies for water demand forecasting. Uniconsult (March 2007) Hydraullic Nework Modeling Seureca / Cas (August 2007) iii) iv) AWSB 275 IC – Individual Connection 1. 1995 and 2010.667.700 149.853.1 Third Nairobi Water Supply Project – Long Term Development Plan – Howard Humphreys (1986) The Howard Humphreys Study forecast the water demand for Nairobi and other regional areas upto Year 2010.

141 701. No detailed demand study was carried out by Sogreah / cape Consult.7% 3% 3% 3 Water Demand (m /d) 387.9% 2020 4.000 280.72 2025 5.25 2015 3. Table 4-5 : Projections of Water Demand for Nairobi – Sogreah/Cape (2005) Year Nairobi Population Annual Growth Rate Gross Water Demand 3 (m /day) 2005 2.Urban Other Urban Centers Rural Areas 3 Total Water Demand m /day Water Demand m /day 3 3 1985 203.141 981. the transmission and in the distribution system.496 + water losses * 154.300 268.7% 498.797 192.714 785.340.000 2010 745.400 1. The forecast demand is detailed in Table 4-5. The Seureca / Cas Study corrected this anomaly and presented the revised population and water demand forecast which is detailed in Table 4-6. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-3 Version 02 .335.233 683.777 957. Hydraulic Network Modelling – Seureca / Cas Consulting Engineers (August 2007) A detailed Water Demand Study Report for Nairobi City was carried out by Uniconsult (March 2007).073 *Water losses estimated at 28% during the treatment.800 1995 326.240.47 2030 6.419 480.3.861 583.2 Nairobi Water and Sewerage Emergency Physical Investments Project.550 382.327 1.086 819.751.100 439.4% 3.8% 3.62 2010 3.772.300 38. I.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.212 1. Diagnostic of the Current Situation – Sogreah / Cape Consult January 2005.900 964.709 1.737 AWSB 587.126 327.92 2020 4.3 Water Supply and Sewerage Services Demand Forecast for Nairobi City – Uniconsult Kenya (March 2007) & Nairobi Water and Sewerage Institutional Restructuring Project.279 2. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast Table 4-4 : Summary of Water Demand Projections within the Study Area in m /d (Howard Humphreys.B.600 113.4% 2010 3. 1985) Area Nairobi .200 61.155 3.133 233.216 672. In August 2007 Seureca / Cas Consulting Engineers under the Consultancy Services for Hydraulic Network Modelling carried out a comprehensive review of the water demand forecast by Uniconsult.200 27.34 Annual Growth 4.503 2.147.2% 2015 3.700 51.860 3.577 Gross Water Demand 542.900 104. Table 4-6 : Projections of Water Demand for Nairobi – Seureca/CAS (2007) Population (Million) 2005 2. The review concluded that the water demand study by Uniconsult had omitted some sub-locations during the analysis of population and water demand forecasting.994 816.3. The Sogreah / Cape Consult Study (2005) carried out a simplified forecast of water demand in Nairobi based on the hypothesis that the gross demand will follow the increase in population as forecasted in official forecasts.

Muranga South. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast 2 2. Administration) Commercial Industrial AWSB The spatial distribution of the water demand within the Municipality / City is largely dependent on the land use. Gatanga and Gatundu Districts Within Rift Valley Province: Kajiado North District Within Eastern Province : Machakos and Kagundo Districts Water demand is defined as the volume of water different categories of consumers can afford to consume in a context of unrestricted supply. Lari. Ruiru. housing density and mode of supply (see table 4-7 below) Table 4-7 : Categorisation of Domestic Consumers Income Group Type of Housing Mode of Supply High income Low density Always connected / metered water supply Medium income Medium density Always connected / metered water supply Low income High density With or without individual connections In most cases.B. Education. sanitation facilities and industrial / institutional requirements. The study area includes the following Districts: • • • Within Central Province: Muranga North. economic considerations. 2005. Thika West. Kiambu East. density and spread of the population. Kiambu West. Thika East. I. The water demand of a Municipality is dependent on the climate. This section outlines the water demand evaluation for different categories of consumers based on recommended water consumption criteria given in the MWI Practice Manual for Water Supply Services in Kenya. The water demand in the supply area has been classified into four categories as follows: • • • • Domestic Institutional (Health.1 Methodology For Forecasting Water Demand Within The Study Area General This section presents the methodology adopted by EBI/MBIP in forecasting the water demand within the Study Area. it has been determined that the current and historical billing records were not representative of the current water demand for different reasons: • The water production is not enough to supply all the consumers (water shortage) • The served areas don’t cover all the potential consumers • Some water meters are faulty or consumers are not metered FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-4 Version 02 . Kikuyu. The domestic water consumption can be categorized into the following three main user groups based in incomes. The future water demand involves estimating the overall demand of the supply area for the present year (2010) and the long term requirements up to the year 2035.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.

fire fighting. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-5 Version 02 . Table 4-8 : Consumption Rates for Urban Areas and Rural (Practice Manual.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. As a result. 2005) Consumer People with individual connections People without individual connections Unit High Class Urban Areas Medium Low Class Class Housing High Potential Rural Areas Medium Low Potential Potential l/capita/day 250 AWSB 150 _ 75 60 50 40 l/capita/day _ 20 20 15 10 According to the Manual. I. As seen above.2 Domestic Water Demand Consumption Rates The per capita demand for domestic consumers is dependent on the income levels. etc. The rates have been kept the same for Rural Areas and the demand per capita for people without individual connections in Urban Areas has been taken as 30 l/capita/day. No additional peak-factors shall be applied to calculate the design demand. the Economic Methods using demand functions on the basis of registered consumption cannot be used to estimate the future demand. the total water demand is calculated including UfW. density of housing. Total demand = Domestic + Institutional + Commercial + Industrial demand+ UfW The per capita water demand for each category of consumer has been based on the parameters set out in the MWI Practice Manual. carwash. the demands per capita adopted to calculate the total water demand are the ones proposed in the Practice Manual less 20% for UfW for Urban Areas (see Table 4-9 on Page 4-6). 2.B. Instead an analytical approach has been used involving estimation of water by different categories of customers with specific consumption demand behaviours and requirements. UfW varies from Town to Town but Water Service Providers should strive to meet at most 25% for UfW which is considered to be practical. The Practice Manual indicates demand per capita for different income levels for Urban and Rural areas (Table 4-8 below). Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast • The billing system is not adequate As a result of the above. the water consumption figures include about 20% allowance for losses through leakage and wastage (UfW). sanitary equipment and water consuming facilities – garden.

7 M) in 2006 was 17% (source: Provincial Director of Education. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast Table 4-9 : Adopted Consumption Rates Without UfW Urban Areas Consumer Unit High Class Medium Class Low Class Housing High Potential Rural Areas Medium Potential Low Potential People with individual connections People without individual connections l/capita/day 200 120 60 60 50 40 l/capita/day _ _ 30 20 15 10 2.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Nairobi. 2005) Consumer Boarding schools Day schools with WC Without WC Hospitals Regional District Unit l/capita/day l/capita/day Rural & Urban area 50 25 5 400 200 100 5. 2006). the ratio between the total enrolment for primary and secondary schools (453 000 pupils) and the total population (2.5 l/d can be applied for Education. Health Sector and Administrations (MWI Practice Manual. When there is no data available. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-6 Version 02 . the number of schools must be determined and the above demand per capita above applied. A ratio of 20 % has been adopted.000 25 AWSB l/bed/ day l/capita/day l/day l/capita/day + 20 l per outpatient and day (minimum of 5. 2005 as follows: Table 4-10 : Consumption Rates for Schools. a demand per capita of 5. I. This is lower than the 30% proposed in the MWI Practice Manual. Table 4-11 on page 4-7 shows the calculation. For Nairobi.B.3 Institutional Water Demand A guidance for Institutional Water Demand is given in the MWI Practice Manual for Water Supply Services in Kenya.000 l/day) Dispensary and Health Centre Administrative offices Education (schools) Water Demand When possible.

Where no data exists. workshops. bars. Table 4-12 : Demand per Capita for Health Sector Health Sector Number Water Demand Total Water l/day Demand(l/d) Population 40. a demand per capita of 25 l/day is applied. Health and Administration). restaurants.5 The MWI Practice Manual specifies that the development of health facilities should be based on the existing situation. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast Table 4-11 : Demand per Capita for Education Education Number Water Demand l/day Population 1.500 5.8 l/capita/day can be applied (see calculation in Table 4-12 below).000 5. The number of hospital beds can be assumed to 0.000 5. etc.000 Hospital bed 32 200 6. etc.3 l/capita/day can be adopted (sum of Education. Commercial water demand should be based on the existing situation where data is available. Training centres. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-7 Version 02 . It is anticipated that the future increase in commercial activity will be directly related to growth of population (MWI Practice Manual. Total Institutional Water Demand The Institutional water demand includes Education. Police and Prisons institutions. In the long term. one health centre and two to four dispensaries will be planned to serve about 35. 2. parks. an overall demand for Institutional of 11.8 The public services include the local government operational services for social amenities such as the fire fighting.400 AWSB Total Water Demand per Capita (l/capita/d) Administration Water Demand 31. the plans by Ministry of Health and the anticipated growth of the population.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Also included are Technical institutes. 2005).000 Dispensary 4 5. When there is no data available on the number of health facilities and their water consumption. When the number of employees in Administration services is known. markets. Otherwise. etc.000 to 40.000 20.4 Commercial Water Demand “Commercial” includes small shops. an average of 5 l/capita/day can be adopted to cover for the public services sector (it is assumed that 1 person in every 5 is working in a public administration). a demand of 0.8 beds per 1000 people.000 Health centre 1 5.000 Number of pupils (20% of population) 200 Day schools (90%) 180 25 Boarding schools (10%) 20 50 Total Water Demand per Capita (l/capita/d) Health Sector Water Demand Total Water Demand (l/d) 4.000 people.B.500 1. Health and Public Administration. I.400 0.

Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Water Vendor and others. a Water Community Scheme or a Private Operator. 36. The category “Spring/Well/Boreholes” includes boreholes that are not connected to a piped system. Industrial Water demand should be based on the existing data where possible. Income distribution and the per capita water demand which is considered constant over the planning period. etc. 3. three categories can be considered: • • Households Piped into Dwelling .5 Industrial Water Demand “Industrial” comprises large enterprises. When households fall in categories “piped into dwelling” and “piped”. Table 4-13 on page 4-9 gives the percentage of population per each category for piped into dwelling. within the study area.8% of the population is supplied by a pipe into dwelling.this includes consumers who have a tap connection into their yard or they are sharing a tap in a building. The Water network coverage has been taken as increasing over the planning period as more resources are mobilised to cater for the population not covered. flush toilets. Households Piped.6% by other sources. debes.g. In terms of water demand.8% in the Study Area without Nairobi City. water tankers. I. Jabia / Rain harvested. piped and for others who are not piped. etc. Lake. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast 2. Piped into dwelling. Unaccounted for Water (UfW) has been taken as constant within the planning period. that means that they are supplied from water systems which are managed by a Public Water Operator. Stream. The percentage of people living in Urban Centres has also been provided. AWSB • The 2009 Census also gives the percentage of population living in Urban Areas. 17. This percentage drops to 39. Spring /Well/ Boreholes. The development of large establishments should be indicated in Urban plans. Their water demand is lower as they have no individual facilities in their house/flat (shower. these households are located in Urban centres and have a high water demand per capita. In average.1 Access for Water The 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Census (Volume II) presents data at District Level on the number of households served by main Source of Water: Pond/Dam. The supply of water is from a planned water scheme or a private borehole linked to a small reservoir and includes a small piped network. tourist hotels. All the others – these comprises the population which does not get water from a water supply system but depend on alternative sources e.B. In average 68% of the total population lives in Urban areas. etc. military camps.6% by a pipe into the yard and 45. 3 Water Demand Forecast The Total Water Demand forecast takes into consideration Population growth. .In general. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-8 Version 02 .)but have communal facilities. Piped.

8% 26. This trend is already evident from the ongoing development in the metro areas of Ruiru / Juja.4% P 52.1% 16.805 442.102 935 1.1% 39.073 218. This data gives the percentage of poor (Low income) population in each division.2% 36..3% 84.5% 77.6% 3.5% 52.B. Districts and Divisions published by Central Bureau of Statistics following the 1999 Census.0% 6. P and others) and Population Living in Urban Area Province / District Nairobi City Central Study Area Muranga North Muranga South Kiam bu East Kikuyu Kiam bu West Lari Githunguri Gatanga Thika East Thika West Ruiru Gatundu Kajiado North (Ngong Division) Machakos Kangundo Sub-Total without Nairobi TOTAL STUDY AREA Area (km 2) 696 5. etc.465. Kikuyu.8% 12.1% 5.4% 14.6% 1.007 214.2% 7.2% 19. etc. The determination of number of poor people is based on a monetary poverty line which represents the cost of basic basket of food (allowing 2250 calories/adult).067 6.8% 68.4% 48.0% 7.9% 45. Ongata Rongai . In Urban 100% Rift Valley Eastern PD = Piped into Dwelling. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast Table 4-13 : Population per Source (PD. Other factors favouring the Multi – Centric Growth Strategy are the high price of land and property in Nairobi City.0% 98.701 253.4% 15.604.8% 0.3% 2.8% 0. This cost is revised every year. Eastern.8% 68. Population distribution based on income levels has been based on data obtained from the Urban Poverty Estimates for Kenya's Provinces.8% 26.930 219. Northern and Southern Bypasses which will not only ease the current traffic congestion but will open up underdeveloped areas leading to rapid urbanisation. lack of adequate public transportation facilities.0% 81.1% 29. 2009 Census 3.0% 9.1% 67.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.6% 56. general degradation of infrastructure.565.6% 56.549 9.8% 64.8% 17.1% 12.3% 82. the area around Nairobi City Boundary will be urbanised and become a contiguous part of Nairobi.3% 10.4% 6.6% 7.8% 23.2% 11.544 241.138.7% 69.2% 2.7% 29.8% 2.0% 46.763 113. I.6% 70. 3. For Nairobi City the growth rates have been analysed on the basis that Nairobi’s growth in future will be Multi – Centric i.7% 21.9% 14.791 237.2 Population Projections and Distribution Based on Income Levels Projections using growth rates for the 1999 . Urban poverty estimates for 2009 census have not been released to date.6% 39.103 3.245 Pop.132 123.2% Pop.3% 0.751 265.863 346.283 432.1% 22. Kiambu.1% 4.7% 32.366 2. AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-9 Version 02 . Mavoko.8% 2. The Multi – Centric Growth Strategy will further be compounded on completion of the ongoing Nairobi – Thika Highway.2009 Intercensal Period as the base reference population have been projected upto year 2035 at high. therefore figures for 1999 have been used in estimating the distribution of population based on income levels.701 6.2% 36.4% 36. availability of enough schools and other amenities within convenient range of residents.094 77.9% 60.895 147. medium and low growth rate scenarios.2% 94.0% 0.3% 57.3% Others 24.6% 96.6% 85. Ngong. traffic congestion.0% Water Sources PD 23.4% 21.025 189 236 282 439 174 312 413 327 292 478 717 1.0% 96. P = Piped.829 131.e.976 755 8.8% 10.7% 41.

070 6.084.170 TOTAL STUDY AREA 9.299 114.1% 1.574 241.938 146.000 39.619 11.132 439 111.071 113.0% 252.1% 0.726 661.459 479.614 228.149 457.0% 1.1% 5.913 215.4% 1.073 327 130.028 261.879 3.1% 2.233 77.005 328.8% 2.335 517.599 870.0% 3.588 6.2% Table 4-15 : Population Growth Rate Estimate and Population in the Study Area at District Level PROVINCE NAIROBI CENTRAL DISTRICTS Population Growth Rates Population Forecast Area Pop 1999 Pop 2009 Growth (Km2) Census Census 99-2009 2010 2017 2020 2030 2035 2010 2017 2020 2030 696 2.055 253.628 533.364 273.063.4% 1.054 2.2% 0.166 398.651 150.3% 2.818 386.517.437 113. The Water Demand Forecast proposed to be adopted for the Water Supply Options and Masterplan are given in spreadsheet on Page 411.946 548.521 265.2% 3.491 171.094 413 63.968 125.391 152.751 342.8% 0.194 217.406 5.7% 2. 2005.952 115.763 312 111.103 2035 7.1% 2.254 3.8% 23.0% 1.515 354.536.196 220.8% 1.910 4.107.7% 1.4% 1.0% 4.0% 5.879 353.025 387.8% 0.304 346.0% 4.002 89.446 621.956 219.639 349.0% 2. CBS.0% 3.347 536.609 182. Table 4-14 gives the type of housing expected in the project area. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-10 Version 02 .8% 1.283 1.4% 1.000 and 50.400 560.461 178.306 190.805 442.2% 0.413 8.5% 1.829 282 113.559 135.981 601.073 2.010.8% 0.1% 0.0% 3.969 237.1% 1.4% 3.4% 3.609 13.553 317.0% -0.207 78.2% Middle Class Between 10.368 218.554 147.0% 2.508 244.5% 1.6% 0.317 255.7% 0.2% 0.349 139.3% 1.207 350.0% 6.969.3 Water Demand Forecast for Nairobi and Satellites Towns Based on the Methodology and Criteria outlined in Section 2 of this Chapter.5% 456.578 131.4% 4.200 155.0% 0. Table 4-14 : Housing Type Distribution for Three Towns (Statistical Abstracts.1% 0.6% 3.1% 1.1% 1.006 3.880 172.252 3.6% 0.1% 1.5% 1.000 KShs 56. CBS) Type of Housing Low Class Income per month Nairobi City Thika Town Athi River Town <KShs 10.8% 0.804 132.6% 4.701 189 188. the Water Demand Forecast for Nairobi and Satellite Towns is detailed in Separate Water demand Reports which will be appended as Annexes to the Strategy Report.489 114.143.0% 0.1% 1.1% 1.379 447.976 755 125.4% 2.863 935 348.203 116.6% 0.7% High Class >KShs 50.5% 64.0% 3.257 434.100 329.0% 2.071 300.850.886 314.618 4.346 355.0% 2.271.257.969 432.324 161.0% 1.511 Study area Muranga North Muranga South Kiambu East Kikuyu Kiambu West Lari Githunguri Gatanga Thika East Thika West Ruiru Gatundu AWSB 2.086.2% 35.4% 1.111 482.159 214.213.4% 2.063 468.390 RIFT VALLEY Kajiado North (Ngong Division) EASTERN Machakos Kangundo 3.895.349 472.737 293.197 769.9% 3.2% 3.1% 6.4% 2.258 148.0% 2. Table 4-15 gives the population growth rates and population forecast in the Study Area at District Level.0% 2.597 256.470 4.629 437.245 4.000 4.302 123.604.1% 1.6% 2.544 292 109.1% 0.6% 6.0% 3.1% 2.007 478 213.0% 5.692 553.303 216.138.0% 3.0% 2.B.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.8% 0.895 174 136.4% 222.1% 6. I.565.0% 2.108. 2005.196.0% 1.0% 3.309 3.5% 0.805 6.6% 1.3% 8.8% 3.751 236 194.930 219.369 3.1% 3.2% 75.188 8.945 113.806.791 717 1.344 93.618.0% 0.1% 1.1% 0.019 786.415 338.333 346.8% 1.0% 0.218 1. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast Using wage earners brackets by major towns from statistical abstracts.493 107.483 357.102 2.2% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4% 4.0% 0.227 157.1% 3.

7% 3.3% Karuri area Kiambu East 25% 65% 10% 46.447.003 L .188 267.2% 3.765 125.238 3.634 669.071 133.380 89.090 20% 31% 41% 63% 74% 32% 43% 52% 70% 79% 20% 31% 41% 62% 72% 16% 27% 37% 58% 68% 22% 31% 42% 65% 75% 7% 17% 27% 48% 58% 18% 28% 38% 59% 69% 19.366.0% 2.338 3.666.791 98.2% 4.390 33.5% 2.202 32.7% 3.100.222 57.435 21.178 740.0% 2.922.880 238.484 246.0% 3.709 105.721 1.026 40.5% 5.0% 3.218 689.2% 3.401 51.0% 7.063.329 23.057.2% 3.670 224.0% 3.328 222.7% 2017 2.162 29.813.4% 4.404.3% 7.426 4.4% 4.312 908.522 687.808.0% 4.361 145.918 313.794 6.841 139.688 29.300 724.840 306.474.009 94.524 3.4% 0.897 1.4% 0.416.925 359.5 88.121 19.125 1.278 145.3% 2.594 638.084 1.785 % Population supplied by Public Network (IC) 2030 2035 61.640 231.107.582 11.5% 11.577 10.0% 7.831 57.282 6.6% 0. Census 2009 3.816 2010 65% 2017 68% 2020 72% 2030 78% 2035 80% 2017 728.319 883.338 2.776 6.826 3.3% 2.335 1.251 17.Individual Connections FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-11 Version 02 .433 171.228 2020 6.Low Population Growth Rate.0% 3.426 25.5% 32% 62% 7% 1.005 197.008 12.0% 5.661 69.193.380 152.7% 2.906 276.262 1.151.0% 2.515 6.060.6% 4.4% 2.707.594 1.229 35.0% 2.2% 1.1% 3.3% 6.8% 0.951 290.547.464.942 8.5% 6.636 62.772 3.957 167.233 70.166.117 224.337 1.Medium Population Growth Rate.562 1.7% 4.694 17.0% 3.425 3.0% 2.830 120.765 17.6% 3.643 39.343 19.147 18.053 8.670 30.5% 3.5% 2.231 4.996 5.214 84.213.435.924 6.130 38.230 905.6% Sub-Total 33% 62% 4% 244 228.097.494 2.028 537.8% 3.795 3.9% 5.654 300.9 320.6% 2.645 4.671 21.0% 3.8% TOTAL Nairobi Envelop 41% 53% 6% 1.0% 3.098.047.205 21.101 19.651 3.3% 1.351 2017 3.977 39.207.2% 6.344 58.127 1.406 67.538 77.6% 3.185 19.400 134.845 1.598 190.015 4.610 104.000.911 322.509 1.372 48.8% Mavoko Municipality Ngong.1% 8.622 2.675 141.8% 3.015 1.461 1.024 42.2% 4.468 6.7% 2.201 37.854 63.369 Growth rate 1989-1999 1999-2009 4.700 56.551 19.9% 223.4% 4.738 180.0% 2.6% 3.891.6% 5.0% 10.923.3% 6.103 937.529 112.545 185.986 495.834 91.3% 4.3% 3.5% 2.3% 3.637.832 20.4% 2.182.768 20.925.9% 3.769 92.0% 6.5% Tala-Kangundo Machakos 41% 57% 2% 77 19.624 47.180 28.6% 3.5% 3.037.947 71.0% 1.6% 2.746 4.441 35.423 535.5% 4.6% 3.9% 3.391.4% 4.899 509.6% 2.1% 3.817 1.5% 4.159 19.506 44.6% 2.High Population Growth Rate IC .398 158.097 6.139 191.644 6.7% L M H L M H L M H L M H L M H L M H L M H L M H 3.488 850.779 7.6% 5.041 7.174.564 595.675 4.4% 7. Ongata Rongai & Kiserian Sub-Total Machakos 39% 56% 5% 340 130.1% 1.063 3.338 2017 6.4% 2020 2.352 9.1% 3.3% 1.910 4.637 6.3% 1.402 70.895 457.234 3.058 1.5% 3.6% 2.823 1.8% 3.0% 9.086 346.147 5.433 3.115 206.807 315.448.6% 53% 57% 63% 73% 77% 1.8% 3.232 253.843 164.174 3.7% 3.483 1.559 1.069 54.984 2020 4.598 5.738 22.058.829 51.6% 1.415 1.7% 1.415 179.6% 3.780.0% 3.5% 2.498 27.5% Ruiru-Juja area Ruiru/Thika East 28% 68% 4% 527.804 16.424 4.8% 2.100 60.3% 2.949 12.9% 4.561 30.383 1.7% 4.799 311.024 187.468 3.990 19.022 1.7% 3.971 96.117.750 236.0% 4.479 2030 2035 695 3.418 28.9% Population Forecast 2017 44.1% 3.2 210.177 4.4% 2.2% 3.123 2.619 13.439 6.810 47.179 3.768 11.501 368.8% 1.951 9.944 114.599.398.739 38.2% 3.6% 2.2% 3.951 66.204 176.3% 1.1% 7.7% Thika Thika West 36% 59% 5% 90.299 9.7% 2.582 337.6% 38.143 1.915.591.9% L M H Population Growth Rate Forecast Scenario 2010 3.376.541 38.5% 3.950 275.347 390.762 4.337 4.056 198.714 23.260.110 313.525 517.0% 4.2% 2.224 637.283.803 35.561 389.1% 3.158 13.131 39.800 4.538.Egis Bceom International in association with MIBP Water Demand Forecast Table 4-16: Water Demand Spreadsheet – Nairobi and Satellite Towns Town/Area District Low Nairobi Province Nairobi 44% Income Level Medium High 50% 6% Area km 2 Pop.5% 4.722 3.849.699 3.521 4.528 3.054 447.956 342.049 22.9% 1.391 494.0% 2.764 27.001.099 5.0% 2.687 3.882 2.9 138.481 16.698.910 69.653.5% 5.0% 4.9% 3.655 211.5% 2.5% 3.188 24.290 105.6% 5.103 4.233 248.006 50.438.794 15.7 129.643 454.257.890 143.2 Pop.756 4.117 2. m3/d Other Satellite Towns Low Limuru Kiambu West Income Level Medium High 73% 2% Area km2 34.674 1.666.846 22.571 144.603.0% 6.777 4.568 304.863.313 14.928 583.4% Gatundu Gatundu 30% 60% 10% 27 15.811 383.438 12.8% 3.793 57.972 163.9% 1.960 19.9% 3.441 3.585 29.453 7.625 522.539 5.188 1.425 241.882 122.355 128.560 31.578 1.5% 4.003 422.417 1.7% 2.6% 9.6% AWSB 2030 2035 1.0% 2010 3.035.643 1.0% 2.2% 3.5% 5.809 1.4% 2.085 39.9% 4.7% 3.493 1.3% 4.513 17.6% 3.647 2017 4.809 214.812 4.8% 7.1% 1.834 91.474 15.5% 3.078 41.0% 3.2% 3.913.652 90.519 276.693 16.454 250.053.6% 7.198.783 3.430 64.615 3.928.003 12.669 4.289.892 336.567.832 241.135 28.8% 3.2% 3.133 12.064 134.454 534.589 10.5% 0.890 4.3% 3.329.024 3.250.280 453.040 228.870 756.466 4.722 413.466 116.299 962.5% 0.246.163 10.012 14.316 3.689 2.697 28.599 47.1% 5.271 29.304 4.7% 4.218 15.4% 4.783.0% 4.5% 3.510.553 26.126 62.016 310.5% 4.5% 4.981 25.443.253 16.2% 1.788 312.624 40.121 2010 2020 47.797 1.424 2035 11.7% 2020 2.998 6.268 24.774.144 509.349 728.1% 3.1% 2.623 37.819 15.8% Population Forecast 2035 2.256.049 261.660 21.664 2.419 2.996 37.655 187.912 582.564 15.6% 5.6% 2.842 29.8% 5.277 579.002 27.5% 3.0% 5.495.052 10.322 2020 802.018 379.6% 2.949 8.0% L M H L M H L M H L M H L M H L M H L M H Population Growth Rate Forecast 2010 2.284 2030 9.4% 4.115 12.138.2% 4.687 28.324 230.6% 2.018 3.157 12.937 167.231 6.865 32.110 445.6% 0.456 20.555.667 999.622 26.042 25.386 19.538 30.206 823.6% 3.6% 11.9% 1.399 25.8% 3.350 36.306 2.145 4.517.148 48.202 16.0% 6.921 6.9% 3.338 186.3% 3. m3/d 2010 581.621.134 4.0% 4.311 73.508 25.8% 3.4% 2.078.481 21.811.812.470.6% 2.133 35.754 21.8% 4.449 53.6% 2.651 1.134 6.6% 3.230 1.0% 9.5% 2.783.1% 3.4% 4.5% 7.127 942.464 9.542 2.639 481.249 601.821 11.491 27.722 37.465 73.0% 3.0% Kajiado North 39% 57% 4% 141.4% 0.310 3.7% 3.133 145.371 441.4% 5.663 905.445 Water Demand Forecast.8% 2.198 281.570 17.104 Satellite Towns within Nairobi Envelop Kikuyu area Kikuyu 33% 57% 10% 81 216.252 57.9% 3.814 80.888 26.570 33.158.935 350.250 104.2% 2.863 4.268 309.534 2.499 726.944 6.401.429 15.3% 3.037 886. M .167 8.593 51.5% 2.314.452 1.9% 3.7% 4.181 1.9% 3.6% 8.662 221.586 2.126.982 2.484 288.3% 3.649 157.578 3.1% 2.2% 1.511 18.6% 8.2% 2030 2.236.357 103.767 23.6% 5.126.993 17.923 223.0% 1.795 22.356 5.249 80.001 472.9% 3.030 416.0% % Population supplied by Public Network (IC) 2030 2035 6.554 66.195 1.024 615.143 79.050.223 18.506 7.7% 4.630 4.011 119.744 4.1% 2.359 78.706 725.2% 3.934 3.7% Kiambu area Kiambu East 25% 65% 10% 58.9% 3.853 57.236 58.716 319.005 1.577 360.5% 6.293 740.583 157.2% 1.611 Growth rate 1989-1999 1999-2009 3.086.032 48.957 2010 27% 2017 37% 2020 45% 2030 62% 2035 69% 2010 4.0% 3.711 3.7% 6.916 7.903 7.891 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 68% 77% 82% 90% 92% 34% 44% 53% 79% 89% 63% 71% 77% 87% 89% GRAND TOTAL 40% 53% 6% 2.377 31.945 183.4% 4.638 496.3% 5.9% 3.7% 3.043 401.194 Water Demand Forecast.880 18.964 79.6% 0.3% 3.4% 5.6% 1.401 6.444 235.932 64.394 4.633 208.9% 3.005 4.809 25% Githunguri Githunguri 25% 73% 2% 15 17.586 9.5% 4.2% 1. Census 2009 37.7% 4.3% 3.636.777 447.685 53.4% 1.620 307.941 360.076 18.279 21.783 2.687.7% 1.0% 1.711.9% 3.534 53% 56% 62% 72% 76% 685.2% 2.235.234 134.428 16.971 3.990 1. H .5% 5.016 22.673.543 22.705 339.090 4.

729 7. For the low income earners.800 6% 50% 16% 28% 72% 2030 6. the per capita water coverage in Nairobi’s informal settlements is very low with the demand being far above the supply (Sogreah – Cape.063. 2005). A 92% coverage of Nairobi population means that approximately 2. According to NCC (1996). However.615 6% 50% 9% 35% 65% 2017 4.01% 1. I.B. Water kiosks are known to sell water at three times more than that charged by NCWSC. 1. water vendors etc. water kiosks or water vendors as described in Table 4-17 below.107. A low per capita rate of 30l/c/d has been adopted for low income earners with no individual connections.g.3.000 3 /m ) as a result of inadequacy and unreliability of the existing water supply system.401 6% 50% 22% 22% 78% 2035 7.07% 985.761 0.9 million inhabitants of Nairobi City rely on NCWSC water supply at present. The connection ratio in the low income areas is however expected to increase within the planning period from the present 9% to 24% by year 2035 as shown Table 4-18 below.17% Other Total 99 0.086.1 Coverage Area / Individual Connections Approximately 92% of Nairobi Population receive water from NCWSC piped network either through direct connections. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast 3. Access to water in these areas is a major problem due to the high cost of water purchased from water vendors (about Kshs. it has been estimated that all the households in the informal settlement get water from NCWSC with only 9% getting water through individual connections while the rest obtain through other means e. it has been estimated that the high and medium income population have 100% water supply coverage by the public (NCWSC) network and are served by individual water connections.903 6% 50% 24% 20% 80% AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-12 Version 02 .345 0. This is estimated to remain constant within the planning period upto year 2035.016 100% Source: 2009 Population and Housing Census The existing NCWSC network can be considered largely as the most important source of water for Nairobi.517.Individual Connection NIC .466 6% 50% 12% 32% 68% 2020 4.15% Jabia / Rain Harvesting 1.14% 687 0. supplied by IC IC .257. Table 4-17 : Number of Households by Water Sources in Nairobi City Water Sources: Households Percentage Pond / Dam 2. In the water demand calculation. 12% of the plots in the informal settlements have direct access to water in the plot while the majority (86% of the plots) obtain water from kiosks and water vendors.691 0. Table 4-18 : Water Supply Coverage by Income Level Year Population High Income (IC) Medium Income (IC) Low Income (IC) Low Income (NIC) % of Pop.18% NCWSC Network 907.No Individual Connection 2010 3. water kiosks.704 92.28% Lake Stream Spring / Well / Borehole 70.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.

the “Other Demand” relative to the forecast domestic 3 demand for 2010 is 127.916 Metereed Social Services 28 Commercial 66.843m /d.B. community project. FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-13 Version 02 .000 new connections will be required annually due to increased population and water supply coverage. the “Other Demand” is expected to grow at the same growth rate as population under the various scenarios studied.482 EPZ (water transfer towards Athi) 8. Allowing approximately 10% additional demand for population residing outside Nairobi but commuting daily and working in Nairobi. etc.709m /d. It is therefore recommended that future financing to increase Nairobi City Water Supply situation should incorporate the need to incorporate the new water connections to ensure equitable water supply to the residents especially in the low income areas. It is expected that the increase in population within the planning period coupled with increase in water supply coverage through increased number of households served by individual connections will result to huge investment needs to facilitate the implementation of new water connections.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.446 Total 271.3. It is estimated that approximately 25.50%).2 “Other Demand” – Commercial.077m /d). the population served by the public network (NCWSC) through individual connections presently stands at 65% and is expected to increase to 80% at the ultimate planning period.077 Water Kiosks 6.50% of the residential consumption (177. Based on the above percentage (44.423m /d. This is categorized as “Other Demand” in the analysis for forecasting 3 demand and is approximately 44.057 Industrial 6. industrial. social 3 services is 78. I. year 2035 as new interventions to meet forecasted water demand are developed. the “Other Demand” forecast 3 for 2010 is 140.310 Community Project 2 Government 6. Under the water demand forecast.318 AWSB The average billed consumption for commercial. government. Industrial. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast Overall. Table 4-19 : Average Billed Volumes per Category from July to December 2010 (Source : NCWSC) 3 Category of Consumers Billed Volumes (m /d) Metered Residential 177. The Average Billed volume by category of consumption from July to December 2010 is given in Table 4-19 below. 3.

709 3. A sensitivity analysis of water demand variation based on the high.340.3 Water Demand Forecast Table 4-20 summarizes the comparison of water demand forecasts from various studies including the current EBI/MIBP JV Study.219 417.250.720.086. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast 3. Figure 4-3 (Page 4-19) Water Demand Forecast for Kiambu Area.352. 22% in 2030 and 20% in 2035).335. Figure 4-1 (Page 4-17) Water Demand Forecast for Nairobi City & Envelop.155 587.B. Figure 4-2 (Page 4-18) Water Demand Forecast for Kikuyu Area.903 1.401 1.800 823.073 AWSB 3. The gross water demand forecast is also based on population not served by individual connections consuming 30l/cap/day (35% in 2010.063. The forecast water demand including population projections for each of the Study Areas is given in Tables listed below.279 785.3. The Seureca / Cas and Uniconsult Studies were based on 100% of the population being on the network and consumption rates related to income groups.780 3.257.797 7.493 * Uniconsult Water Demand Figures are lower as some sub-locations were missed out.860.994 4. Figure 4-5 (Page 4-21) FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-14 Version 02 . The net water demand for Nairobi based on medium scenario of population growth is given in Table 4.765 6. I.000 672.928 4.396 1.251. medium and low population projection scenarios is given in graphical form below each Table.800 3. These forecasts for water demand are therefore higher than those estimated under the current study.340.720. 28% in 2020. These were reviewed and updated by the Seureca / Cas Study.212 6.240.314.000 745.052.517.233 4.000 981. Table 4-20 : Summary of Water Demand Forecast from Various Studies 2010 Howard Humphrey (1985)* Population Water Demand (m /d) Sogreah/Cape (2005) Population Water Demand (m /d) Uniconsult (March 2007) Population Water Demand (m /d) Seureca/Cas (August 2007) Population Water Demand (m /d) EBI/MIBP (2010) Population Based on Medium Growth Scenario Water Demand (m /d) 3 3 3 3 3 2020 2030 2035 3.21 on Page 4-16.126. Figure 4-4 (Page 4-20) Water Demand Forecast for Karuri Area.615 582.845 690.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Table 4-22 (Page 4-17) Table 4-23 (Page 4-18) Table 4-24 (Page 4-19) Table 4-25 (Page 4-20) Table 4-26 (Page 4-21) Water Demand Forecast for Nairobi City.000 1. The EBI/MIBP water demand forecast carried out under the on-going study are based on per capita consumption rates (excluding 20% UfW) outlined in the Ministry of Water and Irrigation Practice Manual (2005).488 6.307 4.

AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-15 Version 02 .4 Water Demand Forecast in Water Sources Region The water demands for the region which the bulk water sources for Nairobi and the Satellite Towns emanate demand has been calculated. The existing water supply schemes in the region including the location of the Intakes are shown in Figure in Annex 4. This has been done previously to prepare the water balance for the whole region.B.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. Figure 4-9 (Page 4-26) Water Demand Forecast for Gatundu Area. Ongata Rongai & Kiserian Areas. forecast water demands and the design capacity of existing schemes in the Region are detailed in Annex 4. Figure 4-12 (Page 4-29) Forecast water demands for Nairobi City by Pressure Zones and by main Service Reservoirs are shown in Annex 4. Figure 4-8 (Page 4-24) Table 4-30 (Page 4-25) Table 4-31 (Page 4-26) Table 4-32 (Page 4-27) Table 4-33 (Page 4-28) Table 4-34 (Page 4-29) - Water Demand Forecast for Limuru Area. Figure 4-6 (Page 4-22) Water Demand Forecast for Mavoko Area. Figure 4-9 (Page 4-25) Water Demand Forecast for Githunguri Area. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast Table 4-27 (Page 4-22) Table 4-28 (Page 4-23) Table 4-29 (Page 4-24) - Water Demand Forecast for Ruiru-Juja Area. I. Figure 4-10 (Page 4-27) Water Demand Forecast for Thika Area. The population projections. 3. Figure 4-11 (Page 4-28) Water Demand Forecast for Tala-Kangundo Area. Figure 4-7 (Page 4-23) Water Demand Forecast for Ngong.

Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat, I.B. Patel & Partners

Water Demand Forecast

Table 4-21: Nairobi Water Demand Calculation – Medium Population Growth Scenario
1. Population Forecasts by Nairobi Divisions

Dictricts

Divisions

Population by Census 1989 1999 527,248 240,509 286,739 632,318 434,884 197,434 776,078 234,942 338,925 202,211 207,610 2009 3,138,366 684,762 329,577 355,185 1,144,416 925,775 218,641 1,062,086 274,607 525,624 261,855 247,102 1,324,570 2,143,254 360,582 144,779 215,803 310,289 154,006 156,283 515,406 178,069 191,429 145,908 138,293

Growth Rate 1989-1999 1999-2009 4.9% 3.9% 5.2% 2.9% 7.4% 10.9% 2.4% 4.2% 2.8% 5.9% 3.3% 4.1% 3.9% 2.6% 3.2% 2.2% 6.1% 7.8% 1.0% 3.2% 1.6% 4.5% 2.6% 1.8% 2010 3.8% 2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 5.8% 7.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.5% 4.0% 2.5% 1.5%

Growth Rate Forecast 2017 3.4% 2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 4.9% 5.8% 1.0% 2.7% 1.3% 3.5% 2.5% 1.5% 2020 3.2% 2.1% 2.5% 1.8% 4.4% 5.2% 1.0% 2.7% 1.3% 3.5% 2.5% 1.5% 2030 3.0% 2.0% 2.4% 1.6% 4.2% 5.0% 1.0% 2.3% 1.0% 3.0% 2.2% 1.2% 2035 2.0% 2.4% 1.6% 4.5% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.2% 1.2% 2010 701,753 339,464 362,289

Population Forecast 2017 833,654 417,498 416,156 2020 2030 2035 3.0% 3,257,615 4,107,466 4,517,800 6,086,401 7,063,903 888,635 1,084,496 1,198,754 449,600 439,035 569,936 514,560 641,691 557,064

NAIROBI PROVINCE NAIROBI WEST Dagoretti Kibera NAIROBI EAST Embakasi Makadara NAIROBI NORTH Central Kasarani Pumwani NAIROBI WESTLANDS 2. Net / Gross Water Demand Year Population Growth Population % Pop. supplied by IC Income levels High (IC) Medium (IC) Low (IC) Low (NIC) Domestic Water Demand (m3/d) High (IC) 200 Medium (IC) 120 Low (IC) 60 Low (NIC) 30 Total Domestic WD Other Water Demand Net Water Demand UfW Gross Water Demand (m3/d) IC - Individual Connections NIC - No Individual Connections

3.8% 1,211,277 1,706,468 1,955,046 3,056,678 3,756,588 990,450 1,469,711 1,711,115 2,787,227 3,473,391 220,827 278,726 546,649 268,401 250,809 236,757 305,101 695,490 319,045 278,359 243,931 317,155 343,576 291,074 269,451 350,337 427,103 327,950 283,196 368,208 476,197 348,105

2.3% 1,093,776 1,319,636 1,431,834 1,813,737 2,045,757 771,102 1,036,297 1,201,352

2010 2017 3.8% 3.4% 3,257,615 4,107,466 65% 68%
6% 50% 9% 35% 6% 50% 12% 32%

2020 2030 3.2% 3.0% 4,517,800 6,086,401 72% 78%
6% 50% 16% 28% 6% 50% 22% 22%

2035 3.0% 7,063,903 80%
6% 50% 24% 20%

AWSB

Higher Coverage Area (Individual Connections) Scenario Year 2010 2017 2020 2030 2035 Population Growth 3.8% 3.4% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% Population 3,257,615 4,107,466 4,517,800 6,086,401 7,063,903 % Pop. supplied by IC 65% 72% 75% 85% 90% Income levels High (IC) 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% Medium (IC) 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Low (IC) 9% 16% 19% 29% 34% Low (NIC) 35% 28% 25% 15% 10% Domestic Water Demand (m3/d) High (IC) 200 Medium (IC) 120 Low (IC) 60 Low (NIC) 30 Total Domestic WD Other Water Demand Net Water Demand UfW Gross Water Demand (m3/d) 39,091 195,457 17,591 34,205 286,344 140,709 427,053 37% 582,928 49,290 246,448 39,432 34,503 369,672 178,019 547,691 37% 747,598 54,214 271,068 51,503 33,884 410,668 196,686 607,354 37% 73,037 365,184 105,903 27,389 571,513 266,761 838,274 37% 84,767 423,834 144,104 21,192 673,896 310,294 984,190 37%

39,091 195,457 17,591 34,205 286,344 140,709 427,053 37% 582,928

49,290 246,448 29,574 39,432 364,743 178,019 542,762 37% 740,870

54,214 271,068 43,371 37,950 406,602 196,686 603,288 37%

73,037 365,184 80,340 40,170 558,732 266,761 825,492 37%

84,767 423,834 101,720 42,383 652,705 310,294 962,999 37% 1,314,493

823,488 1,126,797

829,038 1,144,244 1,343,420

FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS

4-16 Version 02

Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat, I.B. Patel & Partners

Water Demand Forecast

Table 4-22: Water Demand Forecast – Nairobi City
Population Projections Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate 2010 3,250,338 3.6% 3,257,615 3.8% 3,260,647 3.9% 2017 4,035,762 3.1% 4,107,466 3.4% 4,193,984 3.7% 2020 4,398,910 2.9% 4,517,800 3.2% 4,666,816 3.6% 2030 5,687,515 2.6% 6,086,401 3.0% 6,555,578 3.5% 2035 6,438,453 2.5% 7,063,903 3.0% 7,783,445 3.5%

Low Income - 44%

Income Distribution Medium Income - 50%

High Income - 6%

Population Served by Public Water Service Provider (Individual Connections) Year 2010 2017 2020 2030 2035 Percentage as I.Cs 65% 68% 72% 78% 80% Water Demand Forecast, m3/d 2010 2017 2020 581,912 728,293 802,206 582,928 740,870 823,488 583,351 756,322 850,479

Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario

2030 1,053,452 1,126,797 1,213,417

2035 1,198,674 1,314,493 1,448,104

Year 2009 Nairobi City Census Population - 3,138,369

Figure 4-1: Water Demand for High, Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Nairobi City

AWSB

FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS

4-17 Version 02

Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat, I.B. Patel & Partners

Water Demand Forecast

Table 4-23: Water Demand Forecast - Nairobi City Plus Envelop Areas

Population Projections Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate 2010 4,401,675 3.9% 4,416,424 4.3% 4,435,598 4.7% 2017 5,603,356 3.5% 5,774,282 4.0% 6,057,637 4.7% 2020 6,182,053 3.3% 6,443,464 3.7% 6,923,163 4.6% 2030 8,235,299 2.9% 9,000,052 3.4% 10,404,949 4.3% 2035 9,366,921 2.6% 10,538,134 3.2% 12,591,534 3.9%

Low Income - 42%

Income Distribution Medium Income - 52%

High Income - 6%

Population Served by Public Water Service Provider (Individual Connections) Year Percentage as I.Cs 2010 53% 2017 56% 2020 62%
3

2030 72%

2035 76%

Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario

Water Demand Forecast, m /d 2010 2017 2020 685,522 886,230 1,001,015 687,217 908,415 1,037,721 689,037 942,125 1,098,823

Year 2009 Nairobi City plus Envelop Areas Census Population - 4,236145

Figure 4-2: Water Demand for High, Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Nairobi & Envelop Areas

AWSB

2030 1,391,262 1,510,188 1,707,882

2035 1,621,312 1,811,127 2,117,194

FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS

4-18 Version 02

0% 535.030 2.670 3.117 3. I.012 2030 58.Cs 2010 20% 2017 31% 2020 41% 2030 63% 2035 74% Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Water Demand Forecast.B. m3/d 2010 2017 2020 19.951 3.932 64.578 Figure 4-3: Water Demand for High.498 Year 2009 Kikuyu Area Census Population .8% 2017 275.639 2. Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Kikuyu Area AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-19 Version 02 .738 3.398 3.214 84.0% 453.3% 290.100 60.359 78.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.10% Population Served by Public Water Service Provider (Individual Connections) Year Percentage as I.268 2.6% 416.423 3.996 19.2% 322.135 35.911 3.57% High Income .0% 281.157 37.795 2035 73.7% 2020 300.Kikuyu Area Population Projections Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate 2010 223.5% 2035 441.529 3.121 28.6% 2030 390.101 28. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast Table 4-24: Water Demand Forecast .9% 309.229 19.4% Low Income .585 35.834 3.5% 481.882 3.33% Income Distribution Medium Income .216.3% 224.167 29.5% 224.280 3.198 3.

428 16.329 23.8% 2020 122.071 3.88.951 12.598 2.456 2030 22.049 3.6% 2035 180.7% 228.1% 92.765 2.944 3.764 27.10% Population Served by Public Water Service Provider (Individual Connections) Year Percentage as I.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.438 14.6% 163.B.769 3.619 15.0% 114.7% 190.6% Low Income .1% 119.162 29.1% 133.6% 2030 158.794 8.Kiambu Area Population Projections Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate 2010 91.843 3.640 3.202 9.024 2.65% High Income .Cs 2010 32% 2017 43% 2020 52% 2030 70% 2035 79% Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Water Demand Forecast. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast Table 4-25: Water Demand Forecast .972 2.350 36. Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Kiambu Area AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-20 Version 02 .865 2035 27.011 3.9% 2017 112.8% 125.2% 91.003 13.415 3.040 2.25% Income Distribution Medium Income .949 12. I.834 3.026 Year 2009 Kiambu Area Census Population .971 Figure 4-4: Water Demand for High.5% 187. m3/d 2010 2017 2020 8.400 3.

180 17.0% 191.3% 134.188 2.9% 183.B.115 16.277 3. Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Karuri Area AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-21 Version 02 .129.845 3.832 2.6% 2020 179.623 37.6% 2030 231.251 21.6% 241.906 2.945 2.234 3.7% 2017 164. I.934 Figure 4-5: Water Demand for High.705 3.5% 276.Cs 2010 20% 2017 31% 2020 41% 2030 62% 2035 72% Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Water Demand Forecast.993 20.830 2035 40. m3/d 2010 2017 2020 12.0% 167.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.064 3.986 3.133 17.65% High Income .390 33.032 48.10% Population Served by Public Water Service Provider (Individual Connections) Year Percentage as I.110 2.3% Low Income .139 3.810 22.016 12.Karuri Area Population Projections Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate 2010 134.126 2030 32.230 3.380 Year 2009 Karuri Area Census Population .25% Income Distribution Medium Income .433 3.957 3.4% 2035 261.8% 267. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast Table 4-26: Water Demand Forecast .024 42.671 12.2% 171.7% 313.2% 134.

086 6. m3/d 2010 2017 2020 28.698. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast Table 4-27: Water Demand Forecast .0% 2035 1.842 51.655 8.6% 595.0% 1.829 62.6% 346.0% Low Income .B.5% 534.320.564 6.1% 2017 495.Cs 16% 27% 37% 58% 68% Water Demand Forecast.491 80.793 2035 152.68% High Income .159 57.0% 740.2% 1.841 8.779 Figure 4-6: Water Demand for High.0% 342.204 176.697 47.0% 1.561 6.060.329.0% 2020 579.28% Population Served by Public Water Service Provider (Individual Connections) Year 2010 2017 2020 2030 2035 Percentage as I.454 5.559 5.249 29.655 187.675 141.6% 1.895 5.990 4.178 6.224 5.181 4.058 3.133 Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario 2030 120.Ruiru-Juja Area Population Projections Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate 2010 339.947 Year 2009 Ruiru-Juja Area Census Population .831 69.454 7.4% Income Distribution Medium Income .956 6.050. I. Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Ruiru-Juja Area AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-22 Version 02 .5% 2030 905.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.484 246.3% 637.289.661 28.

768 Figure 4-7: Water Demand for High.583 157.662 11.5% 306.9% 2035 457.39% Income Distribution Medium Income .2% 2020 250. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast Table 4-28: Water Demand Forecast .0% 143.840 8.001 7.890 7.268 53.1% 1.599 2035 71.016 5.8% 310.551 31.311 73. m3/d 2010 2017 2020 19.561 2030 57.625 4.935 10.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.Cs 2010 22% 2017 31% 2020 42% 2030 65% 2035 75% Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Water Demand Forecast.685 19. I.0% 413.620 11.560 35.319 5.126.185 27.009 94.278 9.722 7.078 19.5% 522.6% 145.232 6.0% Low Income .3% 638.57% High Income .Mavoko Area Population Projections Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate 2010 139.3% 883.130.4% 2017 211.005 4.5% 2030 389.236 Year 2009 Mavoko Municipality Area Census Population . Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Mavoko Area AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-23 Version 02 .B.722 41.4% Population Served by Public Water Service Provider (Individual Connections) Year Percentage as I.1% 253.819 37.028 5.466 116.594 3.

925 4.706 3.144 3.807 4.8% 2035 537.39% Income Distribution Medium Income .4% Population Served by Public Water Service Provider (Individual Connections) Year 2010 2017 2020 2030 2035 Percentage as I.Cs 7% 17% 27% 48% 58% Water Demand Forecast.693 25.509 9.4% 2020 350.4% 905. I.538 31.6% 601.542 4.663 3.003 Year 2009 Ngong.249 2. m3/d 2010 2017 2020 15.2% 2030 472.402 70. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast Table 4-29: Water Demand Forecast .5% 725.981 30. Ongata Rongai & Kiserian Areas Population Projections Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate 2010 221. Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Ngong.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.210.923 5.582 2035 58.085 16.5% 359.430 64.357 30. Ongata Rongai & Kiserian Areas Census Population .534 4.018 5.649 39.324 6.4% 2017 307.B.8% 315.5% 454. Ongata Rongai & Kiserian Areas AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-24 Version 02 .643 4.006 50.383 6.3% 223.0% 509.5% Low Income .Ngong.0% 230.022 7.746 Figure 4-8: Water Demand for High.056 Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario 2030 47.0% 379.377 15.564 24.971 96.57% High Income .

1% 70.777 6.9% 48.539 Year 2009 Limuru Town Census Population .0% 38.916 4.233 2.1% 47.768 3. I.008 12.611 Figure 4-9: Water Demand for High.0% 51.8% 63.426 2.0% 80.449 2.739 3.756 6.645 7.795 6.097 6. m3/d 2010 2017 2020 4. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast Table 4-30: Water Demand Forecast .880 3.25% Income Distribution Medium Income . Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Limuru Town AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-25 Version 02 .910 1.589 10.582 11.37.622 2.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.5% 38.7% 69.B.435 3.541 2.468 7.996 2035 11.8% 53.4% 2017 44.Limuru Town Population Projections Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate 2010 38.624 2.73% High Income .506 4.2% Population Served by Public Water Service Provider (Individual Connections) Year Percentage as I.8% 2035 61.Cs 2010 27% 2017 37% 2020 45% 2030 62% 2035 69% Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Water Demand Forecast.3% 2020 47.313 14.814 2.7% Low Income .401 2.854 1.372 2.863 2030 9.1% 2030 56.

73% High Income .2% 23.0% 29.099 5.17.063 2035 5.002 1.570 2.3% 30.394 3. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast Table 4-31: Water Demand Forecast .4% Low Income .4% 18.714 2.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat. m3/d 2010 2017 2020 3.711 4.699 4.279 2.2% Population Served by Public Water Service Provider (Individual Connections) Year Percentage as I.722 Figure 4-10: Water Demand for High.826 Year 2009 Githunguri Town Census Population .0% 33.25% Income Distribution Medium Income . Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Githunguri Town AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-26 Version 02 .B.783 2030 5.0% 18.5% 2030 25.8% 2017 20.481 2.337 4.513 2.441 4.Cs 2010 100% 2017 100% 2020 100% 2030 100% 2035 100% Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Water Demand Forecast.7% 22.543 1.4% 2035 26.687 4.218 2.5% 27.6% 2020 21.481 1.231 6.765 2.8% 21.644 6.670 1.147 2.076 2.177 4.3% 21.Githunguri Town Population Projections Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate 2010 18.439 6.688 2.630 3. I.804 2.

788 1.Gatundu Town Population Projections Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate 2010 15. Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Gatundu Town AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-27 Version 02 .234 3.5% 19.519 1.624 2030 3.0% 18.3% 2035 17.Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.429 0.30% Income Distribution Medium Income .694 1.832 0.115 1.1% 17.Cs 2010 100% 2017 100% 2020 100% 3 2030 100% 2035 100% Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Water Demand Forecast.335 Figure 4-11: Water Demand for High.571 1.15.511 0. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast Table 4-32: Water Demand Forecast .812 4.960 0.425 3.6% 17.9% 20.433 3.310 3.018 3.042 3.554 Year 2009 Gatundu Town Census Population .6% 15.5% 2020 16.338 1.174 3.521 4.024 3.474 0.B.6% 18.5% 2030 17.570 0.223 1.10% Population Served by Public Water Service Provider (Individual Connections) Year Percentage as I.7% 16.015 4.441 3. I.9% 21.60% High Income . m /d 2010 2017 2020 3.5% 2017 16.660 0.253 0.2% Low Income .9% 15.222 2035 3.

538 77. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast Table 4-33: Water Demand Forecast .143 79.506 25.Cs 2010 68% 2017 77% 2020 82% 2030 90% 2035 92% Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Water Demand Forecast.36% Income Distribution Medium Income .3% 2035 312.0% 2030 276.777 3.772 Figure 4-12: Water Demand for High.201 40.5% 360.148 25.0% 447.7% 197.399 35. I.133 4.188 4.2% 2017 186.425 4.0% 145. m3/d 2010 2017 2020 25.941 2.754 5.0% 241.982 48. Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Thika Town AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-28 Version 02 .005 3.508 37.5% 222.4% 368.791 98.138.59% High Income .846 5.Thika Town Population Projections Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate 2010 144.0% Low Income .5% Population Served by Public Water Service Provider (Individual Connections) Year Percentage as I.5% 208.361 4.0% 311.B.2% 2020 206.990 5.6% 145.553 4.179 2035 66.501 3.633 4.238 Year 2009 Thika Town Census Population .Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.328 3.951 66.799 3.622 39.338 2030 57.643 44.

853 2030 3.4% 32.593 2.110 2.316 3.964 2035 3.738 1.0% 2035 26. I.744 4.4% 29.3% 21.419 2.6% 19.528 3.689 2.41% Income Distribution Medium Income .Cs 2010 34% 2017 44% 2020 53% 2030 79% 2035 89% Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Water Demand Forecast.117 2.271 1.B. m3/d 2010 2017 2020 2.6% 23. Patel & Partners Water Demand Forecast Table 4-34: Water Demand Forecast .Egis Bceom International in association with Mangat.Tala – Kangundo Towns Population Projections Year Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate 2010 19.586 2.386 1.202 1.0% Low Income .652 Year 2009 Tala-Kangundo Towns Census Population .2% Population Served by Public Water Service Provider (Individual Connections) Year Percentage as I.084 Figure 4-13: Water Demand for High.27% High Income .2% 26.888 1.2% 28.1% 2030 24.418 1.494 2.4% 19.205 1.3% 22.19.444 1.9% 2017 21.005 4.123 2.043 2.484 2.049 1. Medium and Low Population Projections Scenarios – Tala-Kangundo Towns AWSB FEASIBILITY STUDY AND MASTER PLAN FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER SOURCES FOR NAIROBI AND SATELLITE TOWNS 4-29 Version 02 .6% 22.767 1.343 1.130 2.1% 2020 22.918 2.

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