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Tuesday, 29 November, 2011

5 Day Statewide Weather Outlook

No Threat
Lightning Flooding

Low Threat
Damaging Wind Tornado Tropics

Moderate Threat
Inland Panhandle (Tue-Fri)

High Threat
Rip Currents
Panhandle (Tue) Gulf Coast (Tue-Wed), Northeast FL (Tue), East Coast (Thu-Fri)

Inland North FL (Thu-Fri)

Forecast Temperatures for Wednesday Afternoon and Thursday Morning

High Pressure Remains in the Region through the Week (click to update and expand)

Forecast Total Rainfall Amounts for Tuesday - Friday

Drier and Much Cooler Conditions Expected For Much of the WeekFreezing Temperatures and Frost Possible Across North Florida Thursday & FridayCoolest Air of the Season Reaches South FloridaElevated Rip Current Risk Along Many Florida BeachesThe 2011 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Officially Ends Wednesday
FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 11.29.11

Tuesday-Wednesday: In the wake of the cold front which pushed through the state Sunday and Monday, a weak secondary cold front associated with an upper level low pressure area over the Appalachians will push southward through the state Tuesday and reinforce the cold and dry airmass pushing southward through the region. As high pressure over Texas slides east, cloudy skies in the morning will gradually clear through the day, with mostly sunny skies expected for much of the state by mid-afternoon. A cold airmass will remain in place for much of the week and temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Afternoon high temperatures on Tuesday will only reach the low to mid 60s across North Florida. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s are forecast for Central Florida areas between Ocala and Vero Beach, with mid to upper 70s expected for the Treasure Coast and much of South Florida. Northwest winds of 10-15mph will make these temperatures feel even colder. By Wednesday, even colder daytime temperatures are expected, with North Florida areas north of Gainesville struggling to reach the 60 degree mark. Areas south of Ocala towards Lake Okeechobee should see highs rising into the 60s while South Florida areas only see highs in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday will be the coldest day and a light freeze with frost is possible across North Florida Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Tuesday night lows will dip into the upper 30s to low 40s across much of North Florida, except for coastal areas of Northeast Florida where lows will be in the mid to upper 40s. Low 50s to low 60s are expected for the Central and South Florida Peninsula, with mid 60s forecast for the Florida Keys. On Wednesday night, lows in the lower 30s are expected away from the immediate coastlines of North Florida with freeze durations of 1-4 hours. A few of the normally colder locations north of Pensacola may even dip into the upper 20s for a brief period Thursday morning. Otherwise, lows in the mid to upper 30s could extend all the way down the Nature Coast of Florida. Areas along and south of the I-4 corridor down to Lake Okeechobee, as well as some coastal areas of Northeast Florida, will drop into the low to mid 40s, though metro areas and immediate coastal locations may stay in the upper 40s. Further south, much of South Florida will be in the low 50s to low 60s, with the coldest temperatures occurring over Southwest Florida. Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories may be issued for portions of North Florida. When freezing temperatures are forecast, everyone is encouraged to follow the 5 Ps of cold weather safety. The 5 Ps are: Protecting People, Protecting Plants, Protecting Pets, Protecting Pipes and Practicing Indoor Fire Safety. Thursday-Friday: Temperatures on Thursday and Friday will warm up as high pressure begins to exit the region to the northeast, but still expect another cool day with breezy conditions similar to Tuesday with highs in the 60s across North Florida and low to mid 70s across Central and South Florida with a 5-15mph wind. Temperatures should return to normal values by Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s across North Florida, but widespread sub-freezing conditions are not currently expected. However, areas of light frost are possible for areas that reach the mid 30s along the I-10 corridor and Frost Advisories may be issued. Friday morning lows in the 50s are forecast for many Central and South Florida areas, except for the Florida Keys and metro Miami-Dade where lows will be in the lower 60s. As the center of high pressure moves towards the Mid-Atlantic States, winds will switch to a more easterly direction. This could bring a slight chance of isolated showers over the Gulf Stream westward towards the Florida East Coast. Due to the dry airmass still in place, rain
FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 11.29.11

chances are currently only around 10-20% for immediate coastal areas south of Flagler Beach on Friday and Friday night. NWS Mobile Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Tallahassee Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Jacksonville Daily Hazards NWS Melbourne Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Tampa Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Miami Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Key West Daily Hazards Current Watches, Warnings, and Advisories Listed By County Rip Currents: Lingering ocean swells and breezy winds along the Gulf of Mexico waters will produce a moderate risk of rip currents today at most Florida Gulf Coast beaches today, though a high risk of rip currents is forecast for Florida Panhandle beaches west of Apalachicola. High Surf Advisories are currently in effect for Bay, Gulf, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte and Lee counties through tonight. A moderate risk of rip currents is also expected at Northeast Florida beaches, with a low rip current risk along the remainder of the East Coast. Anyone who plans to enter the water should check their local rip current forecast and learn how to escape a rip current before going to their beach destination. Everyone should always remember that the safest beaches are the ones protected by lifeguards. Daily surf zone and rip current forecasts for all Florida beaches. Tropics: A weak area of low pressure located a few hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the western-central Atlantic Ocean. This low is currently interacting with an upper-level low and experiencing moderate wind shear over the system. Though this wind shear is forecast to decrease, environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for development. As a result, the National Hurricane Center has placed a 10% chance of tropical or sub-tropical development within the next 2 days. The 2011 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season officially ends Wednesday, November 30, 2011. The 2011 Hurricane Season produced 19 named storms, including 7 hurricanes, 3 of which became major hurricanes (Irene, Katia, & Ophelia). This season ties 2010, 1995 and 1887 for the 3rd most active hurricane season on record for the Atlantic Basin. Only 2005 and 1933 have produced more named storms. Two storms made landfall along the U.S. coastlineHurricane Irene in August and Tropical Storm Lee in September. Even though three major hurricanes formed, none reached Category 5 strength. This is the 4th consecutive year with no Category 5 hurricanes. This is also the 6th consecutive year that Florida has not been impacted by a hurricane. This is the longest span in reliable hurricane history that no hurricanes have made landfall along the Florida Coast. Named tropical cyclones can still form outside the confines of the official hurricane season. Recent examples include Tropical Storms Odette and Peter in 2003, Hurricane Epsilon in 2005 and Tropical Storm Olga in 2007. Click here for more information from the National Hurricane Center. Drought & Fire Weather: Low humidity, breezy winds and high drought values will result in an elevated risk for wildfires today across portions of Northwest Florida. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for Walton, Holmes,
FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 11.29.11

Washington and Jackson Counties. Big Bend areas will briefly reach near critical humidity levels. Though relative humidity values are currently forecast to be above critical levels, drought values across North Florida will still keep a threat for wildfires to occur. It is advised that anyone handling flammable materials use caution while outdoors on elevated wildfire danger days. The dry vegetation can fuel a wildfire and cause it to spread rapidly, turning a tiny spark into a devastating wildfire. Your local fire weather forecast can be found here. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, one-quarter (26%) of Florida is still considered to be in at least moderate drought conditions, including about 20% of Florida in severe to extreme drought conditions. These high drought values currently only exist across North Florida areas, where it is estimated that 6-15 inches of rain is needed to relieve the current long-term drought across North Florida. Due to continuing La Nina conditions which are forecast to persist through Spring of 2012, a drier and warmer than normal winter is forecast for the Southeastern U.S. As a result, drought conditions are forecast to worsen and expand across the entire state through the remainder of the winter months.
Florida NCAA Division 1 Football: Thursday, December 1 USF vs. West Virginia Kick-off: 8pm at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Mostly clear. North-northeast winds 5-10mph. Kick-off temperature around 60, dropping to the mid and upper 50s. Saturday, December 3 FAU vs. Louisiana-Monroe Kick-off: 4pm at Lockhart Stadium, Boca Raton Mostly cloudy, with a 15% chance of isolated showers before 7pm. Windy, with an east-northeast wind around 15mph, gusting to 20-25mph. Kick-off temperature in the low 70s, dropping into the upper 60s after sunset. (Bowl game forecasts will be released in future updates for eligible teams)

For the official National Weather Service forecast, please click on one of the following cities: Pensacola Panama City Tallahassee Gainesville Jacksonville Daytona Beach Orlando Tampa Fort Myers West Palm Beach Miami Key West Click here for the latest watches, warnings, and advisories from The National Weather Service For coastal and offshore forecasts throughout Florida and Georgia, please click here.

Stay warm and have a great week!! Amy Godsey State Meteorologist State Meteorological Support Unit Florida Division of Emergency Management
FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 11.29.11