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We're back in day-to-day mode

NEW YORK - Traders placed their largest wager against the euro since June 2010,
betting that Europe sovereign-debt crisis will continue to plague the currency, according
to U.S. government data released Monday.
Ìnvestors bets that the euro will weaken against the dollar outstripped positions
anticipating a stronger currency by $14.4 billion as of Nov. 22, up 11% from the
previous week, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission latest weekly report
showed. Corporate-bond issuers were able to take advantage of favorable market
conditions in the U.S. Monday before newfound optimism fizzled out in the afternoon.
The White House said Monday that U.S. taxpayers should not bear the burden of
helping stabilize Europe's economy, even as President Obama was hosting European
Union leaders for a summit amid deepening concerns about the future of the euro. With
the EU currency in a particularly perilous state as experts fret it could collapse in a
matter of days, Mr. Obama said the U.S. "stands ready to do our part to help resolve
this issue.¨ "This is of huge importance to our own economy,¨ Mr. Obama said after the
summit. "Ìf Europe is contracting or if Europe is having difficulties, then it's much more
difficult for us to create good jobs here at home because we send so many of our
products and services to Europe. "We've got a stake in their success, and we will
continue to work in a constructive way to try to resolve this issue in the near future,¨ he
continued. Earlier Monday, Mr. Obama's spokesman, Jay Carney, said the U.S. has
plenty of experience in dealing with the economic crises but will only offer advice and
consultation rather than financial help. "We do not in any way believe that additional
resources are required from the United States or from American taxpayers,¨ Mr. Carney
said.
We're back in day-to-day mode for the time being
No fewer than seven deals hit the U.S. credit markets as issuers waiting for an
opportune moment finally got their chance to meet investors willing to take some risk.
High-grade new issuance totaled $3.33 billion Monday. Last week, due to heightened
concerns boiling in Europe and a holiday interruption, no high-yield borrowers had
entered the primary market.
One syndicate manager said more deals are ready in the pipeline for the remainder of
this week, but he noted credit didn't perform as well as equities Monday, so it is unclear
how much will come through the system. Long-term investors also mopped up a rare
50-year bond deal from DTE Energy Co. (DTE). The bonds featured a 6.50% coupon.
Favorable conditions allowed the Detroit, Mich., electric-and-natural-gas provider to
borrow $280 million, compared with an original projection of $150 million.
The bonds are junior subordinated debentures due in 2061, with credit ratings of Baa3
from Moody's Ìnvestors Service, an equivalent BBB-minus from Standard & Poor's, and
a BB-plus rating--just below investment grade--from Fitch Ratings.
%he French government still expects economic growth
French Finance Minister Francois Baroin Tuesday said there is a need to change the
economic governance of the euro zone, to strengthen budget oversight and harmonize
tax rates.
These changes are part of a proposal being drafted by the French and German
governments to change existing treaties and resolve the euro-zone sovereign debt
crisis, Baroin said in an interview with France Ìnfo radio station.
He added the French government still expects the economic growth to be 1% in 2012
even though the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
Monday announced it expected a 0.3% growth. He said the government has a EUR6
billion margin to face a slower-than-expected growth and doesn't plan to announce
another austerity package.
%he markets continues to be at the mercy of policymakers
Whether it's political gridlock in Washington or the headlines out of the Euro Zone, the
market continues to be at the mercy of policymakers in the U.S. and Europe, meaning
volatile trading is here to stay, writes the investment strategy team at Wells Fargo
Wealth Management in a recent note to clients.
"Developed countries are only beginning to de-lever their balance sheets, and, as long
as we take two steps forward and one and three-quarters steps back, the markets are
likely to suffer uncertainty, volatility and a general re-pricing of risk," Wells Fargo
advisers say.
Ìnvesting for the long haul always means waiting out periods of violent price swings and
anxiety. But sticking to your plan is difficult when markets are overemotional, as they
are now. Nothing works in Europe without Merkel. And the German chancellor isn't just
opposed to euro bonds. She also refuses to accept a move by the European Central
Bank (ECB), backed by the French in particular, to buy up the bonds of ailing euro-zone
countries on a much larger scale than it has done to date, in order to bring down the
yields on those bonds. But that was not an official topic in Strasbourg, where Sarkozy
assured his fellow leaders that France respected the independence of the ECB.
The staged harmonious mood stands in sharp contrast with reality. Ìn the middle of its
biggest crisis, Europe is hopelessly divided. One summit follows the next, and they all
end with conciliatory statements and avowals, but not with any shared plan for how to
save the euro.
%he situation could hardly be any more dramatic
The European monetary union threatens to implode unless something happens soon.
The ambitious project that was supposed to permanently unify the continent will have
failed, with dramatic consequences for Europe and the rest of the world. Countries
would go bankrupt, banks would have to be rescued once again, and the economy
would sink into a recession that would last for years.
The moment of truth is approaching, now that the end game for the euro has begun. But
what will happen now? Ìn the coming weeks, but particularly in the first quarter of 2012,
the ailing European countries will have to raise massive amounts of money. Ìn Ìtaly
alone, more than C110 billion ($145 billion) in old debt is set to expire, which will have to
be refinanced (see graphic). But who is going to give these countries fresh capital at the
moment?
The "confidence" game
Ìnvestors have lost confidence in the euro-zone countries and in their ability to rescue
the common currency. Not even the recent changes of government in Ìtaly, Greece and
Spain have been enough to persuade them otherwise.
There is a growing sense of fear, both in the financial markets and in government
offices. Even serious bankers who exude confidence in public admit privately that the
monetary union could soon fall apart.
The previous bailout attempts have been worthless, they say, noting that Europe must
finally reach for the only weapon whose firepower is endless, the European Central
Bank. The ECB must finance the debtor nations, even if its own constitution bars it from
doing so. The central bank has enough money, and it can also print money if necessary.
Most European leaders share this realization by now -- all except Merkel. She remains
resistant, concerned about the central bank's independence and monetary stability. She
is also staunchly opposed to all attempts to pool the debts of euro nations through
jointly issued debt known as euro bonds.
The European Central Bank missed its target at its weekly operation to drain the volume
of its bond purchases from the euro zone's banking system, ECB data showed
Tuesday. The data suggest that banks are hoarding cash amid the euro
zone's intensifying debt crisis. The ECB only drained EUR194.199 billion in its weekly
operation, below the target of EUR203.5 billion. The target amount equals the total
volume of purchases under the ECB's program for buying euro-zone government bonds
on the secondary market.
has missed the mark on a 'draining operation"
Ìt is the first time that the ECB has missed the mark on a draining operation since May
and only the sixth time since the ECB started its bond-buying program in May 2010. Ìt is
also the first time that the draining operation has failed since the ECB revived the
program in August. Following the announcement of the failed operation, the euro
dropped against the dollar, reversing gains made earlier Tuesday after Ìtaly's debt
auction.
Peter Chatwell, an Ìnterest Rate Strategist at Credit Agricole CÌB, said banks' concerns
about collateral may have prompted them to use their cash differently than they have
done in the past. Banks right now may "not want to give money to the ECB when there
are treasury bills on offer and they can be used as collateral at the ECB.¨
Though banks could get higher returns by depositing at the central bank, they are
putting money instead in short-term instruments that they can use at the ECB as
collateral to refinance, he said.
Banks are increasingly using the ECB as an intermediary. This is due to growing
concern among banks about counterparties' exposure to the euro zone debt crisis.
Banks are borrowing at record levels from the ECB's weekly main refinancing operation
and also depositing funds at the ECB's overnight facility at very elevated volumes.
%he German chancellor is increasingly isolated
At home, Merkel must defend any concessions to save the euro against her coalition
partners, the business-friendly Free Democratic Party and the conservative Christian
Social Union (the Bavarian sister party to Merkel's Christian Democratic Union). She
must convince members of parliament from her own party and abide by the rules set by
Germany's Constitutional Court in its far-reaching decisions on the euro crisis. The FDP
is creating alarm by polling its members on the party's position on the crisis. Ìn other
countries, Merkel is seen as a stubborn defender of German interests who hasn't
recognized how serious the situation is -- and is therefore jeopardizing the entire
monetary union.
Jacques Attali, who used to be an adviser to former French President François
Mitterrand, paints the concerns of partner countries in a particularly drastic light. After
the two world wars, says Attali, it is "now Germany, once again, that holds the weapons
for the entire continent's suicide in its hands." Ìf Germany doesn't change its position,
says Attali, "there will be a catastrophe."
A bleak assessment
A bleak assessment from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) on Monday (28 November) warned that the euro zone crisis
threatens the globe with a serious recession if left unresolved.
"The euro area crisis remains the key risk to the world economy," the Paris-based
economic think-tank said in its biennial report, adding that the euro zone debt train
crash could result in global liquidity seizing up.
"Ìf not addressed, recent contagion to countries thought to have relatively solid public
finances could massively escalate economic disruption. Pressures on bank funding and
balance sheets increase the risk of a credit crunch."ľ
The body cut its projections for growth across all OECD or developed countries from 2.3
percent in its last report to 1.6 percent in 2012, while EU states dropped in its
estimations from two percent to 0.2 percent for next year.

Here are seven worthy strategies to apply to today's investing landscape, says
Wells Fargo Wealth Management:
O Understand your time horizon and liquidity needs. Ìf you need to spend the
money within the next year, leave it in cash or short-term bonds. You should
typically have enough cash to cover between 12 and 18 months of living
expenses to avoid selling long-term assets during volatile markets.
O Diversify a portfolio. Allocation to stocks, bonds, real assets and complementary
strategies is the best way to reach long-term investment goals, regardless of the
short-term noise. For example, this year stocks are down, but bonds are up.
Meanwhile, within the stock market, the financial sector is down, but consumer
staples are up. Ìn commodities, industrial metals are down, but energy is up.
O Globalize a portfolio. Although the market headlines this year have revolved
around events in the U.S. and Europe, much of the world's economic growth is
coming from countries outside of these geographic areas. Wells Fargo
recommends at least 25 percent of a bond portfolio and 35 percent of the rest of
a portfolio be invested outside of dollar-denominated assets.
O Don't give up on equities. Ìt's been a rough year for global equity markets, but
average index returns are still up significantly from their 2009 lows. The sell-off
has created attractive valuations to accompany strong fundamentals, which likely
will benefit investors when volatility subsides.
O Overweight domestic large-cap stocks. While much of the rest of the world's
economic growth has been decelerating, domestic growth has been accelerating.
The U.S. economy has improved notably since the beginning of the year, while
earnings have reached record highs. Given those conditions, Wells Fargo likes
domestic large-cap stocks for price-appreciation potential as well as dividend
income.
O Diversify income streams. Ìf we are in a period of below-average returns for
stocks, the income component will likely be an even larger portion of an
investor's total returns. Wells Fargo likes companies that both pay and are seen
to be growing their dividends. As for bonds, the wealth managers suggest
considering local currency emerging markets debt (or dollar-denominated
currency for lower volatility), high-yield bonds and global high-grade corporate
bonds. Avoid Treasuries and developed market sovereign debt.
O Take advantage of the holiday sale. With safe-haven assets such as Treasuries
outperforming this year, your portfolio may be overweight bonds. Risk is on sale,
and now would be a good time to rebalance back into some of the beaten down
asset classes. Wells Fargo recommends adding to asset classes that still
possess solid fundamentals but have suffered during the risk-off trade, including
domestic large-cap stocks, emerging market stocks and high-yield bonds.


Date: nov 30. 2011

Mircea Halaciuga, Esq.
0040724581078
Financial news - Eastern Europe

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