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October 3, 2011

TAG OIL LTD. (TAO-T, $6.10)
Recommendation: Speculative Buy; Target: $10.50

Analyst: Kevin Shaw, P.Eng. MBA (403) 835-3158 KShaw@casimircapital.ca Associate: Ryan Galloway, CMA (403) 613-8350 RGalloway@casimircapital.ca

Initiating Coverage: Prod’n “Behind Pipe” to Double Cashflow at Taranaki; Apache-TAG Deal in NZ East Coast Shale a Huge Step Forward
Projected Total Return Market Data 52-Week Trading Range Median Weekly Volume Shares Outstanding, Basic (mm) Shares Outstanding, Diluted In-the-Money (mm) Market Capitalization ($mm) Estimated Net Debt (Cash) Q4/11 ($mm) Enterprise Value ($mm) Forecasts Fiscal Year End: Mar 31 Average Gas Production (mcf/d) Average Oil & Liquids (bbls/d) Average Total Production (boe/d) Percentage Oil Realized Gas Price ($/mcf) Realized Oil Price ($/bbl) Modeled Revenues ($mm) CF From Operations ($mm) Year-End Net Debt (Net Cash) ($mm) Capex (ex A&D) ($mm) Net Debt / Cashflow (x) Per Share ($) EPS ($, FDTSM) DACF/sh (FDTSM) P/E (x) EV/DACF (x) EV/(Avg Boe/d) Asset Values 1P Proved Reserves (2011) Probable Reserves (2011) 2P Proved Plus Probable Reserves (2011) Working Capital at 2012FYE Proceeds from Dilutive Securities Other Estimated Reserve Additions (2012) $ $ $ $ $ $ 72.1% $2.53 - $7.64 608,050 51.1 57.2 $348.7 $(47.2) $301.5

Massive 14B bbl unconventional and conventional oil potential with Apache
Combined AJM and Sproule estimates total 14 Bbbl TPIIP in New Zealand’s East Coast Basin held 100% by TAG. TAG entered into a farm-out agreement with Apache in September 2011 on 1.7mm acres & Apache will carry up to ~$100mm in exploration & appraisal costs for an initial 25% interest in 5,120 acres, growing to 50% WI across the entire acreage. Apache brings key unconventional shale experience from around the globe coupled with TAG’s familiarity of NZ geology.

F2010A 323 323 100% 85.00 6.5 0.2 (8.5) (2.5) n/m $(0.07) $0.00 n/m 1,792.4x n/m

F2011A 606 413 514 80% 86.00 13.1 (1.2) (68.3) 15.6 n/m $(0.01) $(0.03) n/m n/m n/m

F2012E 9,143 859 2,383 36% 7.73 102.27 57.5 23.3 (49.3) 46.0 n/m $0.27 $0.43 22.8x 12.4x $126,554 (m m ) 24.07 29.94 54.01 49.28 22.15 $ $ $ $ $ $ $

F2013E 31,257 1,732 6,942 25% 7.80 102.04 153.5 67.4 (46.7) 70.0 n/m $0.97 $1.23 6.3x 4.3x $43,436 /sh 0.42 0.52 0.94 0.86 0.39 2.56

~2,800 boe/d today & ramping to 5,000+ boe/d with staged Sidewinder start-up
With ongoing Taranaki basin success at Cheal and Sidewinder over the past 10 months, TAG is nicely positioned to ramp big cash flows. Over the next two quarters, multiple wells are expected to start-up and tie-into newly upgraded facilities at Cheal & new facility infrastructure at Sidewinder.

$ 146.15

EMV of Exploration & Developm ent Projects - Taranaki Basin Gross Unrisked Recoverable Resource (mmboe) 55 Net Unrisked Recoverable Resource (mmboe) 42 Net Risked Recoverable Resource (mmboe) 18 EMV ($mm) Success $ 560 EMV ($mm) Risked $ 254 EMV of Exploration & Developm ent Projects - East Coast Basin Gross Unrisked Recoverable Resource (mmboe) 718 Net Unrisked Recoverable Resource (mmboe) 359 Net Risked Recoverable Resource (mmboe) 38 EMV ($mm) Success $ 3,129 EMV ($mm) Risked $ 339

Low to medium risk conventional drilling likely to offset decline & churn cash flow
$ $ 9.80 4.45

$ $

54.74 5.94

With a sizeable inventory of drilling locations, further development and lower risk exploration activities are expected to continue in Taranaki through 2012 onward. We estimate 10 additional Sidewinders and 5 Cheal locations to be drilled over the next 18 months.

Price

Volume (000s)

$10.00 $8.00 $6.00

2,000 1,500 1,000

Valuation Driven by Cashflow ramp at Taranaki & Long-term East Coast Potential
We value TAG based Core NAV of $4.75/sh plus risked EMV of the Taranaki Basin, and a partial inclusion of the true value we estimate in the East Coast Basin. We initiate coverage with a 12-month target of $10.50/sh.

$4.00 $2.00 $0.00 20-Sep-10 500 0 20-Sep-11

20-Jan-11

20-May-11

Source: ThomsonOne, Company Reports, Casimir Capital Ltd.

© Casimir Capital Ltd., Member of IIROC and the CIPF Toronto, Ontario M5H 4E5, Canada 145 Adelaide St. W, Suite 200

and the 20% non-op Kaheru prospect offshore. CMA (403) 613-8350 RGalloway@casimircapital. These basins were estimated to have 12 billion barrels of OOIP unconventional (AJM) and 1. and additional oil production (from 2 Cheal wells) are brought online. Ontario M5H 4E5. Messenger. High Working Interest. MBA (403) 835-3158 KShaw@casimircapital. with the recent arrangement in the East Coast basin with Apache whereby TAG is essentially carried for a few years or up to $100 mm in exploration costs. We look forward to the first East Coast basin vertical strat “tests” in 2012. P. including more Sidewinders and new Cheal wells targeting the Urenui. We estimate about 720 mmbbls recoverable based on their evaluation of less than 2000. Member of IIROC and the CIPF Toronto. Coast Basin – Conventional & Unconventional TAG & Apache plan to spend $100mm over the next four years exploring the Waipawa and Whangai oil shale deposits in TAG’s East Coast Basin permits. At Taranaki.ca Associate: Ryan Galloway.00/mcf and oil above $100/bbl.ca © Casimir Capital Ltd. and this is set to increase to nearly 6.000 boe/d as significant gas & liquids production from a series of Sidewinder wells.V.94 per share if fully included in our target. Cashed-Up with Large Acreage Positions. Cheal C-2 spud in the last week and 4 additional Cheal wells are up afterward. and Key Strategic J. All of these projects supply an excellent cash flow given local gas prices of $7. On a risked basis we believe these reserves could be worth ~$5. Canada 145 Adelaide St. With upgraded facilities expected. TAG will be carried during this time for all costs (or 50/50 if costs exceed pre-specified limits).74 billion barrels conventional (Sproule). Analyst: Kevin Shaw. W.Key Investment Highlights 14 billion barrel OGIP Farm-out to Apache Positions TAG to More Quickly Unlock the Huge Upside Potential of the E. conventional onshore drilling to continue and supply solid cash flow TAG plans to keep drilling the various conventional onshore prospects. one of the world’s leading unconventional shale players. This valuable capital injection will accelerate TAG’s ability to deliver on these projects and explore this huge land base with Apache. Partners to Accelerate Exploration at a Low Cost TAG is estimated to have more than $55mm in working capital at the end of September.Eng. these wells should be tied-in over the next two to three quarters. Suite 200 2 . and in a success case.. In addition. Additional exploration activities are also planned in the Cardiff gas & condensate prospect.800 bbls/d with the recent commissioning of the first well at Sidewinder. and the exciting new Moki formations. could add an astounding $55/share. TAG is uniquely positioned to utilize its very strong cash & cash flow from production positions to be opportunistic to potentially add additional growth assets to its portfolio by way of acquisitions. which is more than sufficient to fund the continued drilling of Sidewinder and Cheal wells.000 acres of TAG’s total acreage package. Mt. 2X Production Ramp as Sidewinder and Cheal Wells Tied into Upgraded Facilities Current production is estimated at around 2. An additional 5 wells are included in rig commitments but not yet finalized.

3% 0.15 $49.54 NPV (mm) $138. Figure 1: Reserves and Forecast Net Asset Value Volumes Proved Producing Proved Non-Producing Undeveloped Total Proved (1P) Total Probable Total Proved + Probable (2P) NPV ($mm) Proved Producing Proved Non-Producing Undeveloped Total Proved (1P) Total Probable Total Proved + Probable (2P) Oil mmbbl 0.6% 55.28 $125.ca Associate: Ryan Galloway.1 0.2 NGLs mmbbl Total mmboe 0.Valuation TAG is an exploration-oriented company which is quickly transitioning into a key producer within the New Zealand landscape. and neither the Cheal B4ST nor Cheal C1 results) and the potential for success on future exploration and development projects.5 2.75/share plus the EMV of incremental exploration & development upside in Taranaki at $4.74 $28.5 $48. Ontario M5H 4E5. As a result.0 2.45 $2.8 $200.9 54.5 $186.60 $4.0 21.00 $22.5 0.9 % of Total 23.8% 4. CMA (403) 613-8350 RGalloway@casimircapital.0 0.ca © Casimir Capital Ltd. we value the company by using a risk-adjusted F2012E NAV of $4.2 2.6 Gas bcf 0. arriving at a target valuation for TAG of $10.50/share.9 $40.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.Eng.6 1.0% 44. Casimir Capital Ltd.9 0.19 Forecast Changes to Reserves Proven Producing Non-Producing and Undeveloped Total Reserve Additions Estimated Reserve Deductions from Production Risk-Adjusted F2012E Reserves Risk-Adjusted F2012E Core Asset NAV ($mm) Risk-Adjusted F2012E NAV (per Share) mmboe 4.0% 100. Suite 200 3 .0 5.2 $271.0 0.0 0.1 29. MBA (403) 835-3158 KShaw@casimircapital.5 1.4 0.45 $46. P.6 0.0 24.0% 71. Canada 145 Adelaide St.7% 0. Analyst: Kevin Shaw.0% 29.75 Source: Company Reports.9 7. Member of IIROC and the CIPF Toronto. W.0 NPV/boe $34.45/share.94/share EMV of East Coast Basin projects.94 $24.1 0.0 0..7% 5.0 0.46 $31.0% Other NAV Components Value of Undeveloped Land Proceeds from Dilutive Securities Tax Credits Other Plus (Minus) Working Capital at Fiscal Year-End Estimated Core NAV ($mm) Estimated Core NAV (per Share) $0. Currently our valuation is derived from the company’s existing 2P reserves (which do not include SW 2. 3 or 4.4 1.0 39.0% 0.4% 100. We further only partially include 20% of the fully risked $5.

79 0.0% 10% 20.528.62 0.70 $26.0% 50. After carefully managing spending during the financial crisis of 2008.2 Risked EMV ($mm) $153.5 260. Ontario M5H 4E5.1 17.00 $100.0% 20. P.2 $0.ca Associate: Ryan Galloway.82 $0. By 2007 the company officially began producing from the Cheal discovery with less than 100 bbls/d and growing ever since. Member of IIROC and the CIPF Toronto.75 Inclusion 100% 100% Valuation Build-Up $2. It secured a listing on the TSX Venture in 2005 and continued to grow its asset base. data.39 Source: Company Reports.19 $2.41 $0.0% 0.51 0.0% Gross Unrisked Recoverable Resource (mmboe) 14.9 $339.Teranaki Basin EMV of Risk-Adjusted Incremental Upside . Figure 3: Risk Adjusted EMV of Upside in East Coast Basin (20% Inclusion) Region / Project Initial Working Participating Gross Unrisked COS Success Case NPV Time Value Success EMV Risked EMV EMV/sh ($) EMV/sh ($) Capital/Exploration Interest Interest Recoverable Resource (%) NPV/boe Adjustment ($mm) ($mm) Success Risked Cost ($mm) (%) (%) (mmboe) $10.83 0.0 $1.56 $4.4 $1.83 0.62 0.East Coast Basin Valuation $4.34 $0. The company became active in the Taranaki basin of New Zealand in 2002.00 $35.44 $3.0% 30% 100.00 $10.1 $106.45 Cheal Oil Sidewinder Gas Cardiff Gas/Condensate Kaheru Offshore Total Source: Company Reports.0% 40% 100.00 $25. the company has begun to capitalize on new shale technologies to explore in new prolific basins.19 $2. Canada 145 Adelaide St. Figure 4: Target Derivation Valuation Method: Net Asset Value & EMV of Risked Upside Value Estimated Core Asset NAV 2011 Estimated Risk-Adjusted NAV Additions this Fiscal Year Forecast Risk-Adjusted F2012E Core Asset NAV $2.0% 50. Casimir Capital Ltd.6 $23.74 $0.74 $54.19 $10.00 $20.0% 50.51 $311.6 $3.00 NPV Time Value Adjustment 0.3 $560.00 $40.14 $3.4 55. CMA (403) 613-8350 RGalloway@casimircapital.58 $1.5 $95. MBA (403) 835-3158 KShaw@casimircapital.00 $16.Figure 2: Risk Adjusted EMV of Upside in Taranaki Basin (100% Inclusion) Region / Project Working Participatin Initial COS Capital/Exploration Interest g Interest (%) Cost ($mm) (%) (%) $0.129.4 $20.67 $0.00 $16.56 $4.1 35.0% 0. and proceeded to acquire acreage.00 $16.9 $152.35 $1.7 $33.75 EMV of Risk-Adjusted Incremental Upside .45 $1.00 $10. Casimir Capital Ltd.00 65% 100.86 $18.9 $76.00 $40. and startup capital for initial exploration activities.94 Waitangi Hill Oil Boar Hill Oil Waipawa Black Oil Shale Whangai Oil Shale Total Source: Company Reports.00 0.7 $254.4 EMV/sh EMV/sh ($) Success ($) Risked $4.87 $2. Analyst: Kevin Shaw.63 $9.0% 0.4 372.80 $2.3 11. Casimir Capital Ltd.ca © Casimir Capital Ltd.0% 50.5 Success Case NPV/boe $20.94 100% 20% $4.1 $46.45 $5.5 $5.00 $20.1 $220.65 Success EMV ($mm) $236.4 718.6 12.069.00 $10.0% 100. Suite 200 4 .69 $1.67 $5.Eng.0% 100.01 $4.0% 0.6 $36. Company Background TAG Oil is a high-growth E&P with focus on onshore & offshore New Zealand properties. W.00 $0.0% 100..00 15% 15% 10% 10% 50.8 $191.

the company possesses over 1. and has identified hundreds of future exploration targets with relatively low-risk drilling. In total. the company seeks to leverage technological advances to drill unconventional oil shales in the East Coast Basin of New Zealand.. Member of IIROC and the CIPF Toronto. P. TAG’s acreage in the Taranaki Basin is a current producer with 100 mmbbls OOIP and 500 bcf OGIP potential and a large cash flow provider to the company.The company has a short term strategy of maximizing the value of its discoveries at Cheal and Sidewinder and an increasing cash flow to allow future growth with minimal shareholder dilution. Analyst: Kevin Shaw. Figure 5: Geography of TAGs primary assets in Taranaki and East Coast New Zealand Source: Company Reports The company has a 100% working interest in most of its lands.Eng. TAG’s early entry into these basins gave it a strong first-mover advantage in the form of lower costs and some of the highest quality acreage throughout the New Zealand landscape. Canada 145 Adelaide St. Ontario M5H 4E5.ca © Casimir Capital Ltd.7 million prospective acres with both conventional and unconventional reservoirs.ca Associate: Ryan Galloway. In the long term. W. This position is estimated to have a potential resource of 14 billion barrels OOIP. Asset Overview TAG holds acreage in both the western Taranaki and the East Coast Basins of New Zealand. Suite 200 5 . The company graduated from the TSX Venture to the TSX in July 2011. MBA (403) 835-3158 KShaw@casimircapital. The East Coast Basin has huge potential for exploration upside both conventionally and unconventionally. CMA (403) 613-8350 RGalloway@casimircapital.

W. The area however is only lightly explored and offers significant exploration upside.000 boe/d level with steady growth from behind-pipe production continuing into 2012. and we estimate production from this region by year-end approaching the 3.ca © Casimir Capital Ltd. CMA (403) 613-8350 RGalloway@casimircapital. The company has 50+ drilling prospects. Ontario M5H 4E5. TAG owns two permits in the area with a 100% WI and significant 3D seismic coverage..Figure 6: TAG’s Asset Mix – 100 mmboe conventional ‘development-oriented’ Taranaki with 14 billion bbl potential in East Coast exploration Source: Company Reports Taranaki Basin The Taranaki Basin is situated around Mt. MBA (403) 835-3158 KShaw@casimircapital. The basin has proven reserves of 600 mmbbls and 7 tcf of natural gas. P. Canada 145 Adelaide St. Suite 200 6 . Member of IIROC and the CIPF Toronto.ca Associate: Ryan Galloway. Figure 7: Overview of the Taranaki Basin Source: Company Reports Analyst: Kevin Shaw. Taranaki on the western coast of New Zealand.Eng.

98 0.80 7.B4ST Cheal.4 Cheal.ca © Casimir Capital Ltd. Canada 145 Adelaide St. Suite 200 7 .900 boe/d expected by calendar year-end G a s R a te (mmc f/ d ) Sidewinder. Member of IIROC and the CIPF Toronto. P.1 Sidewinder. W.C1 * T ota l: 7. CMA (403) 613-8350 RGalloway@casimircapital. Figure 9: Overview of the lower-risk multi-stacked development at Cheal Source: Company Reports Analyst: Kevin Shaw.21 6.87 O il Ra te (bb ls/ d) 0 0 0 0 360 360 720 BO E Ra te (boe / d) 1.. MBA (403) 835-3158 KShaw@casimircapital. Ontario M5H 4E5.I. The entire permit has 3D seismic coverage.Eng. Upgrades are currently underway to increase the capacity of the Cheal facility to handle additional wells which have already been drilled. Company expec ts flow rates similar to B4ST Source: Company Reports Cheal Oil & Gas Field – 100% W.24 30. We anticipate up to 10 additional vertical Cheal wells by 2013. namely B4ST and Cheal C1 which were drilled earlier in 2011.Figure 8: Production Past & Future – up to 5.3 Sidewinder. but stabilized rates not yet published. The company is also eager to assess the Moki formation with upcoming wildcat targets. Development Asset The Cheal Oil & Gas Field is characterized by multiple stacked formations. primarily the Kiore. Messenger.163 400 400 5.202 1. and Moki.865 F ina l Dra wdown Ra te 28% 25% 40% 25% – – Ne t P a y Enc oun te re d 14 meters 47 meters 15 meters 19 meters 17 meters 15 meters *Cheal.C1 has suc cessfully tested. Urenui.467 1.24 0. Mt.ca Associate: Ryan Galloway.233 1.2 Sidewinder.40 8. and all wells drilled at Cheal are easily tied into a TAG-operated production facility.

sizeable exploration upside.Eng. and we estimate up to 10 additional vertical development wells being drilled through March 2013.910 acres. Ontario M5H 4E5. TAG has begun discussing a high-impact gas target in deeper reservoirs beneath the Sidewinder discovery. Figure 10: Sidewinder area . the company has not released adequate details for us to create a risk-adjusted EMV. In March 2011.) Recently. but at this time.ca © Casimir Capital Ltd. the company had identified numerous other drill locations. The aptly-named Hellfire prospect targets Kapuni level (3. This exciting new regional prospect is likely to add value to the company. W..Sidewinder Discovery (100% W. which is anticipated to be condensate rich. Canada 145 Adelaide St. which have 25 mmboe proven reserves. P.I.000m) deep gas. MBA (403) 835-3158 KShaw@casimircapital. room to run & past success Source: Company Reports Hellfire Natural Gas & Condensate Beneath Sidewinder (100% W.) – A Cashflow Machine Just Recently “Fired-up” TAG has had great success in 2011 from the Sidewinder discovery area with 4 successful gas wells. Member of IIROC and the CIPF Toronto. Suite 200 8 . Analyst: Kevin Shaw. though all are still awaiting tie-in to facilities. and directly offsets nearby Kaimiro and Ngatoro fields.I. CMA (403) 613-8350 RGalloway@casimircapital. The Sidewinder permit area is 7.ca Associate: Ryan Galloway.0004.

Suite 200 9 . Canada 145 Adelaide St. With current gas prices creeping toward US$7.) The Cardiff gas discovery is adjacent to the Cheal discovery in the Taranaki basin.I. P. Kaheru Prospect – 20% W.ca © Casimir Capital Ltd. Analyst: Kevin Shaw. MBA (403) 835-3158 KShaw@casimircapital. in which the company has a 20% non-operated working interest with partner Roc Oil.ca Associate: Ryan Galloway. and the company believes horizontal drilling into the tight sands could access up to 508 bcf of gas OGIP. as it is offsetting the Shell / Todd’s Kapuni field. the economics of gas plays in New Zealand are highly attractive and much more lucrative than in places like North America where gas prices are currently depressed due to oversupply and less demand. A previous resource assessment of the area estimated a potential of up to 819 bcf and 21.Cardiff Natural Gas & Condensate (100% W.Eng. CMA (403) 613-8350 RGalloway@casimircapital. The company is eager to explore this acreage. W. which was the first major discovery in New Zealand. Joint Venture The Kaheru prospect is one of several potential offshore locations in the Taranaki basin.. Member of IIROC and the CIPF Toronto.000 metres. Figure 11: Overview of Cardiff Discovery Near Cheal Source: Company Reports The Cardiff pay has a depth of approximately 4.00/mcf.I. Roc is a proven offshore exploration and development company and provides necessary offshore experience to TAG.4 mmbbls original resource in place. plus condensates. Ontario M5H 4E5.

Ontario M5H 4E5. W. estimated by Sproule to be 1. Canada 145 Adelaide St.ca Associate: Ryan Galloway.Figure 12: The Kaheru Prospect Joint Venture with Roc Oil Source: Company Reports East Coast Basin – A “Company Maker” For Any Size of E&P The East Coast Basin is a significantly under-explored basin in which TAG has over 1.000 acres of this position. Suite 200 10 . CMA (403) 613-8350 RGalloway@casimircapital. which still yields a massive 720 mmbbls recoverable resource. MBA (403) 835-3158 KShaw@casimircapital.Eng.ca © Casimir Capital Ltd. and much larger unconventional oil shale ambitions. Figure 13: Overview of massive 1. P. We estimate a 5% recovery factor at this time. AJM were hired for an independent resource assessment..7+ mm net acre position in the East Coast Basin Source: Company Reports Analyst: Kevin Shaw. Member of IIROC and the CIPF Toronto.7mm acres of 100% working interest land.74 billion bbls OOIP. The company has several shallow conventional targets and deep conventional targets. and identified 12 billion barrels of potentially undiscovered unconventional resource at the P50 (mid-case) level on just 200.

W. P. in exchange for carrying TAG on the initial upfront exploration costs. with potential for more. Planning is underway for at least one 1.Eng. at which point both companies will pay their respective working interest portion of overages. the company announced a farm-out agreement with Apache.ca © Casimir Capital Ltd. Member of IIROC and the CIPF Toronto. Suite 200 11 . Figure 14: Waitangi Hill Acreage Overview Source: Company Reports Boar Hill (Permit 38349) The Boar Hill prospect has identified numerous Miocene sandstones with 20%+ porosities and at least 20 conventional drill sites across the acreage. up to a cost cap. We assign a gross un-risked recoverable resource of 372 mmboe to this region. CMA (403) 613-8350 RGalloway@casimircapital. Ontario M5H 4E5. Apache intends to spend up to $100mm to get the field into a ‘pre-operations’ phase. MBA (403) 835-3158 KShaw@casimircapital.. Waitangi Hill (Permit 38348) and Nicks Head (Permit 50940) Waitangi Hill exploration drilling can potentially allow for rapid shallow oil development and additional oil cash-flow.ca Associate: Ryan Galloway. Oil & gas seeps were noted in this area and TAG completed a 487m stratigraphic well in 2009. Figure 15: Boar Hill Acreage Overview Analyst: Kevin Shaw. while providing additional critical information about the viability of deeper oil shales in the Waipawa and Whangai. which identified progressively more oil rich readings as the well penetrated the Oligocene strata.In September 2011. in which Apache will gradually earn up to a 50% interest in most of the East Coast blocks.000m exploration well in the future.500-3. Canada 145 Adelaide St. We assign a gross un-risked recoverable resource of 36 mmbbls to this area.

with significant over-pressuring and 50 degree API oil. These shales are naturally fractured.Eng. CMA (403) 613-8350 RGalloway@casimircapital. Ontario M5H 4E5..ca Associate: Ryan Galloway. We assign a gross un-risked recoverable resource of 260 mmbbls to Waipawa and 372 mmbbls to Whangai. Canada 145 Adelaide St. plus naturally occurring oil and gas seeps in the area provide confidence in the recoverability of resources at this early stage. P.ca © Casimir Capital Ltd. This quality.Source: Company Reports Waipawa and Whangai Oil Shale The W&W oil shales in TAG’s acreage are comparable in organic carbon content and maturity levels to those seen in the Bakken and Liassic Shales. Member of IIROC and the CIPF Toronto. W. Figure 16: Extremely Favorable Comparison between W&W and Bakken Shale Source: Company Reports Analyst: Kevin Shaw. Suite 200 12 . MBA (403) 835-3158 KShaw@casimircapital. significantly better porosity.

CMA (403) 613-8350 RGalloway@casimircapital.ca © Casimir Capital Ltd. Johnson. Mr. Prior to joining TAG. leading a team of geoscientists. Member of IIROC and the CIPF Toronto. Johnson was Finance Director for Bridge Petroleum Limited (NZ) and has an exceptional track record of managing operational risk in highly regulated industries. Cadenhead received world-class technical training and in-depth knowledge of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin during his 24 years based in Calgary. Mr. and ability to execute complex transactions have been key to TAG Oil's transformation from a start-up to prominent international production and development-stage company. engineers and technical support staff into a successful multi-well drilling program and secondary recovery implementation before joining TAG Oil in 2003. MBA (403) 835-3158 KShaw@casimircapital.Eng. Johnson's perseverance. CEO Mr. P.Appendix A: Management and Directors Management Garth Johnson. Selkirk Energy and Summit Resources. Chief Operating Officer Mr. Canada 145 Adelaide St. Suite 200 13 . His responsibilities have included corporate governance and accounting functions for TAG’s New Zealand subsidiaries. and a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of New Zealand. He is a member of the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (UK). Cadenhead gained his New Zealand experience with Fletcher Challenge Energy Taranaki. He also worked in various leadership capacities for a number of other Canadian-based companies including Ulster Petroleum.. Analyst: Kevin Shaw. has worked with the Company for the last four years. Cadenhead holds a Bachelor of Science Degree in Geology from the University of Calgary. His strong leadership is critical to TAG's continued growth and success. Chief Financial Officer Mr. he has developed a deep expertise in New Zealand and Papua New Guinea oil and gas activities. Blair Johnson. Over the past 15 years. Thirteen of those years were with Canadian Hunter Exploration. At Summit he was responsible for identifying and leading the company into the Gunnell area of BC to test the Upper Devonian Jean Marie Formation where multi-TCF gas deposits were subsequently discovered. Ontario M5H 4E5. and is a member of APEGGA.ca Associate: Ryan Galloway. Mr. Drew Cadenhead. W. strategic planning skills. who holds a Bachelor of Management Studies with First Class Honors in Accounting and Marketing. as well as a wealth of diverse business experience in North America and Australasia.

British Columbia office. In the 1980s. and has previously articled at the law firm of Lang Michener LLP in their Vancouver. Prior to this. he has founded and led a number of successful Canadian-based growth companies. He obtained a B.ca © Casimir Capital Ltd. Hill is the Chairman of Black Pearl Resources Inc. Mr. transforming Walking Stick Oil and Gas Ltd. into a significant entity that later merged with Bonavista Petroleum. CMA (403) 613-8350 RGalloway@casimircapital. W. Guidi began his journey into the oil business as a drilling roughneck in Alberta at age 18. (TSX-V: AOI). Hill holds a Master of Science degree in Geology and Bachelor of Science degree in Geophysics from Michigan State University. Ronald Bertuzzi. with distinction in Sociology from the University of Victoria in 2001 and an LL. (TSX: PXX) and ShaMaran Petroleum Corp. Director – As Above Analyst: Kevin Shaw. Hill was instrumental in developing Valkyries Petroleum Corp. Ontario M5H 4E5. Giuseppe (Pino) Perone. Bertuzzi holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of British Columbia and he has more than 20 years of executive. Perone is an active member of the Law Society of British Columbia and is currently practicing as a corporate lawyer for a group of public companies. as well as an MBA from the University of St. Member of IIROC and the CIPF Toronto.. Mr. and Tanganyika Oil Company Ltd. which has resulted in the discovery of several wildcat oil and gas discoveries in New Zealand and major gas reserves in Papua New Guinea's Foreland. Director Mr. Thomas in Houston. Corporate Secretary/Treasurer Mr. both highly successful international oil and gas producers which were acquired by major oil companies. Garth Johnson. MBA (403) 835-3158 KShaw@casimircapital. and is the CEO of Africa Oil Corp. Mr. Director Mr.. Guidi. Director Mr.B. P. Mr. development and growth strategy of several companies that pioneered exploration onshore and offshore in Australasia and China throughout the early 1990s to the present.A.Eng. Mr. Guidi introduced new horizontal drilling technology to mature fields in South East Saskatchewan.Board of Directors Alex P. Mr. board and committee experience with US and Canadian junior listed companies focused primarily in the oil and gas industry doing business in Australasia. Guidi has also led the funding. acquiring and exploring significant exploration acreages and ending in discovery. Suite 200 14 . Since then. Bertuzzi’s experience covers various stages of company development beginning with initial start-up and initial public offerings. key parts of which were recently acquired by Talisman Energy. from the University of Alberta in 2005. (TSX-V: SNM). Keith Hill. Guidi is highly experienced international oil and gas entrepreneur and the founder of TAG Oil. facility development and commercial production of oil and gas. Canada 145 Adelaide St.ca Associate: Ryan Galloway.

Eng. 7. to be a Third-Party Research Report as per FINRA rules and regulations. Casimir endeavours to make all reasonable efforts to disseminate research to all eligible clients in a timely manner through either physical or electronic distribution such as mail. hold or sell positions in the securities mentioned herein as principal or agent. its affiliates and/other respective officers. 2. a director. expressed or implied. not Casimir Capital L. The research analyst(s) or associate(s) or a member of the research analyst's(s) or associate's(s) household has a long position in the shares and/or is long calls/short put options of the subject issuer. W. P. the compensation of Research Analysts is impacted by the overall profitability of the firm. Distribution Policy. Affiliate Related Disclosures: TAG Oil Ltd. 5. and its affiliate Casimir Capital Ltd. or analyst with Casimir has provided services for remuneration. email. whose name appears in this research report hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal views about any and all of the securities or issuers discussed herein that are within the analyst’s coverage universe and (ii) no part of the research analyst’s compensation was. is made to their accuracy or completeness. 3. however. estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. to the subject issuer. and its affiliate Casimir Capital Ltd.. Casimir or its affiliates have provided investment banking and/or related services for the subject issuer. Canada 145 Adelaide St. fax.Company Name TAG Oil Ltd. but no representation or warranty. An employee. This report has been prepared by Casimir Capital Ltd. and is therefore deemed by Casimir Capital L. Casimir Capital L. As with most other employees. or an advisor to. Officer of. officer. Each analyst of Casimir Capital Ltd.ca © Casimir Capital Ltd. Casimir or its affiliates is a market maker. This report has been prepared by Casimir Capital Ltd. direct or indirectly related to the provision of specific recommendations or view expressed by the research analyst in the research report. directors and employees may from time to time acquire. MBA (403) 835-3158 KShaw@casimircapital. Member of IIROC and the CIPF Toronto. and has been not been a client during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of this research report. Casimir or its affiliates collectively beneficially own 1% or more of any class of the issuer’s equity securities. officer. and its affiliate Casimir Capital Ltd.P. directly related to any specific corporate finance transactions. or will be. Casimir and/or its affiliates may have acted as financial adviser and/or underwriter for certain of the issuers mentioned herein and may have received remuneration for such services. have not provided investment banking services to the subject company and have not received investment banking or non-investment banking related fee or compensation from the subject company. 4.P. Suite 200 15 . or is associated with the specialist that makes a market in the securities of the subject issuer.ca Associate: Ryan Galloway. Within the last 12 months. and offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. or director of Casimir is a member of the Board of Directors. Casimir Capital L. the subject issuer. Analyst Certification.. Research Analysts' compensation is not. Disclosures None Disclosure List 1.P. and is not to be construed as. which may include revenues from investment banking activities of the firm's Corporate Finance department. Within the last 12 months. The information contained herein is for information purposes only and this report is not. The research analyst(s) has viewed the material operations of the subject issuer. Disclaimer. (the “subject company”) is not a client of Casimir Capital L. 6. or by posting to Casimir proprietary websites. Casimir.P. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or derived from the sources believed reliable. Neither Casimir nor its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents.P. CMA (403) 613-8350 RGalloway@casimircapital. is. (“Casimir”) Opinions. Analyst: Kevin Shaw. The compensation of Research Analysts and Research Associates is intended to reflect the value of the services they provide to the clients of Casimir Capital. other than investment advisory or trading services. Ontario M5H 4E5. intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company during the next 3 months. During aforementioned period.

Suite 200 16 . Ontario M5H 4E5. which at the time the rating is instituted and/or reiterated. which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated. due to a variety of factors including but not limited to market conditions. Member of IIROC and the CIPF Toronto. A security which at the time the rating is instituted and/or reiterated. our oil and gas research evaluates securities primarily on a return basis. A security. indicates that the security is likely to underperform the broader market. CMA (403) 613-8350 RGalloway@casimircapital. As a result. In addition.Eng. we may at our discretion adjust our investment ratings to reflect short-term trading conditions that are different than our long-term view of the returns on specific securities. W. political risk. Casimir Capital Ltd. Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Not Rated Analyst: Kevin Shaw. P. indicates that we expect it to significantly outperform the broader market. indicates that we expect the security to perform at levels comparable to the broader market. which at the time the rating is instituted and/or reiterated. A security which at the time the rating is instituted and/or reiterated.ca Associate: Ryan Galloway.. indicates an expectation of exceptionally strong returns but the risk of a significant loss is materially higher than other oil and gas companies. and news flow. does not have an opinion or expectation as to the price of the security. indicates that we expect it to modestly outperform the broader market. Canada 145 Adelaide St.ca © Casimir Capital Ltd.Investment Ratings System Casimir’s system for rating oil & gas investment opportunities assumes that these securities have higher levels of risk than the broader stock market. A security. Below is a summary example of these investment ratings: Investment Rating Speculative Buy Rating Description A security. MBA (403) 835-3158 KShaw@casimircapital.

Canada MEMBER OF IIROC & CIPF Analyst: Kevin Shaw.CASIMIR CAPITAL LTD. Suite 200 17 . 145 Adelaide St. CMA (403) 613-8350 RGalloway@casimircapital.ca Associate: Ryan Galloway. MBA (403) 835-3158 KShaw@casimircapital.. Member of IIROC and the CIPF Toronto.ca © Casimir Capital Ltd. Ontario M5H 4E5. Suite 200 Toronto.Eng. Canada 145 Adelaide St. W. Ontario M5H 4E5. W. P.