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MORE LOCAL PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN - FEWER SECONDARY SCHOOL OPTIONS

HSC SCHOOLS DATA COLLECTION REPORT NOVEMBER 2011 The numbers to warrant a high school for Coburg were already here back in 2006 (Spatial Vision report for DEECD 2010). However High School for Coburg (HSC)’s data collection work in 2009 showed a wave of increased numbers coming through local primary schools. We have now updated that earlier work with data and projections obtained from schools and the DEECD and our new results show the wave of children is increasing. The need for an open entry state secondary to be reinstated in Coburg is here now. HSC will continue to lobby for local state secondary school provision planning for the demonstrated increasing number of local primary school children to begin immediately

MORE PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN
SCHOOLS DATA COLLECTION 2011- KEY RESULTS:   Over 100% more children in Prep than Grade 6 in local primary schools in 2012. (Not counting Coburg West PS which is already at capacity for all year levels) The number of children enrolled in Prep at twelve local schools will increase by 53% in the four years from 2008 to 2012.* (This is a conservative figure as two of the schools –Preston West and Coburg West are capped and therefore cannot take any more children) The increase in local Preps from 2008 to 2012 will be 245 to a total of 705 children. Total enrolments at twelve local state primary schools will increase by 30% from 2009 to 2013 - an increase of 888 in four years. (the two capped schools included).* There are projected to be 3894 children enrolled at local primary schools in 2013. [* See graphs]

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FEWER SECONDARY SCHOOL OPTIONS
Concurrent with the increase in primary school enrolments and a baby boom has been a decrease in the number of secondary school options and access. Since 2004:        Moreland City College closed 2004 http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/08/03/1091476489884.html?from=storylhs St Josephs Catholic Boys secondary closed 2009 Lakeside Secondary College closed 2010 http://northcoteleader.whereilive.com.au/news/story/trashed/ Thornbury High School will be capping Year 7 enrolments in 2012 Northland High will become a Senior High in 2012 Northcote High School is considering ways to further restrict access as they cope with extreme enrolment demand http://www.nhs.vic.edu.au/content/docs/newsletter/newsletter1114b%20web.pdf Moonee Ponds Central School currently looking at removing Years 7 and 8 provision.

THE DEECD SPATIAL VISION REPORT 2010 SHOWS THE NEED
In 2010 Spatial Vision were commissioned by the DEECD to do a review of secondary provision within the Coburg area. The two stated objectives were 1) Describe the extent and nature of the changing demographic composition and 2) Review the potential for an additional government secondary school (Review Methodology, 15th June-Spatial Vision) Key sections of the DEECD Spatial Vision Report 2010 may be read at www.highschoolforcoburg.org under “Data” – DEECD Report-Coburg Core Area, Areas of Most Growth and Network Capacity Analysis.    In 2006 there were over 5,000 secondary school aged persons in the “Coburg Core Area” (page 71). This area - Coburg SLA plus West Preston – would, according to HSC, be the catchment for a high school in Coburg The Coburg Core Area would account for 1.8 to 10 times more average long term demand for state secondary than surrounding secondary school catchments (page 80) The report showed a significant secondary provision shortfall which is most prominent in the areas with most expected growth in numbers and least secondary school options (page 60)

THE BABY BOOM ENSURES THE NEED WILL BE SUSTAINED:
 Moreland has experienced a 30% birthrate increase since the year 2000. Darebin has had similarly big increases in birth notifications. (See graphs on the last page of this report) Back in 2008 a national ABC story on Australia’s Baby Boom focused on Moreland http://www.abc.net.au/rn/backgroundbriefing/stories/2008/2192548.htm Moreland is traditionally working class and multicultural, and has fast become a popular destination for young families, wanting to buy a home within five to ten kilometres of the city. This municipality is at the forefront of the baby boom; it's had the biggest increase in birth numbers of any inner city area in Victoria In early 2011 Moreland Council included this article “Baby Boom Hits Moreland“ in the Inside Moreland publication -http://www.moreland.vic.gov.au/about-council/newsmedia/inside-moreland/inside-moreland-summer-2011/inside-moreland-2011-babyboom.html?s=1001

METHODOLOGY
Data obtained from:  Phoning schools.  DEECD commissioned Spatial Vision Report 2010  DEECD .

www.highschoolforcoburg.org http://www.facebook.com/highschoolforcoburg

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HIGH SCHOOL FOR COBURG Local State School Prep Enrolments 2008 to 2012 Data taken from the followIng local schools:
Bell Brunswick East Brunswick North West Coburg Coburg West* Coburg North Newlands Moreland Pascoe Vale Pascoe Vale North Preston West* Reservoir West *capped enrolments NOTES: 1. Overall growth in prep numbers 2008-12 for these schools = 53% 2. * = School with capped enrolments 3. No figures for 2013 included due to fluctuations in data 538

705

650

642

Student numbers

610

603

570

530

490 460 450 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3500 3400 3300 3200 3100 3006 3000 2900 2009

Data taken from the followIng local schools: Bell Brunswick East Brunswick North West Coburg Coburg West* Coburg North Moreland Newlands Pascoe Vale Pascoe vale North Preston West* Reservoir West NOTES: 1. Overall growth in total numbers 2009-13 for these schools = 30% 2. Figures for 2013 are projections 3. * = School with capped enrolments 3212

HIGH SCHOOL FOR COBURG Local State School Total Enrolments 2009 - 2013

3894

3682

3350

2010

2011

2012

2013