Citrus outlook

2011/2012
Philippe Binard
General Delegate
Freshfel Europe

Citrus update and forecast

! Review NH season 2010/2011
! Review SH season 2011
! Forecast 20112012 NH
! Conclusions

Freshfel Europe

Freshfel Shaffe citrus WG

Date
September

Freshfel SHAFFE Citrus WG

Freshfel :
Chair: Jose Antonio Garcia ( Ailimpo)
Vice Chair : Salvo Laudani (Oranfrizer/ Fruitimprese)
SHAFFE :
Adolfo Storni ( Argentina )

Specific Topic

Type

Preliminary NH forecast / SH
Ending Season

TC

NH Forecast / SH Balance

TC

December

NH on going season

TC

February

Preliminary SH Forecast
Development NH

PM

April

SH Forecast / NH Ending Situation

TC

July

SH on going season

TC

October

Balance Northern Hemisphere season 2010 2011

NH season 2010/2011
One of the most complex season with availability of 18.5
Mln T in the Med region = >
larger volume were available (almost 500.000T more than previous
year)
Strong production both in Turkey and Spain

Poor price return across the varieties

Turkey : looking to other destinations than EU, eastwards
and northwards
Ongoing SH presence on EU markets
World markets overall struggling as well as other products
EHEC impact for Spain at end of season

Outlook SH season 2011

Southern hemisphere

! Production at 6.5 Mln T

! Export at 2.3 Mln T down so far by 2.3 %

TOTAL SH
Production
Oranges
Mandarins
Lemons
Grapefruit
Total
Export
Oranges
Mandarins
Lemons
Grapefruit
Total

2003
2.973.698
1.031.361
1.919.431
554.448
6.478.938
2003
1.116.227
254.892
457.417
200.061
2.028.597

2004
3.062.463
1.276.653
1.989.827
536.721
6.865.664
2004
1.061.577
270.463
484.298
219.043
2.035.381

2005
3.267.705
1.201.231
2.183.012
711.978
7.363.926
2005
1.169.109
275.181
539.139
292.409
2.275.838

2006
3.245.765
1.230.760
2.231.554
633.882
7.341.961
2006
1.170.117
296.999
484.448
181.733
2.133.297

2007
3.554.082
1.333.358
2.289.230
677.574
7.854.244
2007
1.379.134
335.256
529.026
249.511
2.492.927

2008
3.315.615
1.158.817
2.120.695
630.726
7.225.853
2008
1.324.260
338.872
599.718
226.488
2.489.338

2009
3.087.125
1.025.618
1.888.105
663.407
6.664.255
2009
1.209.621
360.126
431.350
233.386
2.234.483

2010
3.340.953
1.047.023
1.644.631
465.824
6.498.431
2010
1.382.546
389.319
411.679
198.286
2.381.830

2011
Var 2011/2010 Var 2011/Av 03/10
3.134.890
6,17%
2,97%
950.548
9,21%
18,27%
1.935.472
17,68%
4,81%
522.237
12,11%
14,29%
6.543.147
0,69%
7,01%
2011
Var 2011/2010 Var 2011/Av 03/10
1.279.825
7,43%
4,34%
390.620
0,33%
23,95%
413.762
0,51%
15,92%
242.274
22,18%
7,62%
2.326.481
2,32%
2,99%

SH and market summary

Overall SH export to international market down by 2.3 %
Saturated demand in Russia and rolling effect onto Middle East
markets
Asian market : not buoyant Japan only moving slowly South East
Asian market not as strong as previous year
European market : complex after EHEC crisis, summer fruit complexity
, late end of NH season but larger volume of oranges and grapefruit

On product basis :

Soft citrus : poor quality , little demand

Oranges : affected by poor NH season with late end
Lemons : improved given lower Argentine volume
Export
Grapefruit : the most complex , pending stocks Oranges
Soft citrus
Lemons
Grapefruits
Total

SH Export to EU
2009

2010

2011 (up to week 38)

419.761

462.005

496.711

162.073

167.937

147.675

199.612

225.412

206.059

111.831

81.123

134.873

893.277

936.477

985.318

Outlook Northern hemsiphere

2010/2011

Key points EU Med production

EU Med production down by 5% at 10 Mln T
!

Spain:
! Decrease of citrus production by 10.6% . Soft citrus will be 12.9% lower , oranges 10.4% lower lemons down by
6.5% ( Verna up by 8% but Fino down by 10%),grapefruit up by 5.5%
! Better commercial size still to be influenced by upcoming rain ,slightly earlier start for picking for all varieties except
for lemon , higher juice content
! Main focus on EU markets, look for opportunities on 1/3 countries. Some stock of juice.

Italy:
!
!
!
!

Similar as two years ago

Oranges production to be up by 18%
Soft citrus declining by 9.4%
Lemons to be stable

Cyprus
! Lower production except for oranges ( stable ) leading to lower export to EU market ( 8% ) and external trade (
2.5%)
! High

Greece:
! Lower orange production to 500/550.000 T leading to lower domestic supply & processing and stable EU shipment
and export
! Stable soft citrus production, 0% to EU markets, 12% to local market
! Slight delay in picking, size on average

Key points Non EU Med production

Non EU production to be up by 6 % to 8, 4 Mln T
!

Turkey:
! Production to increase by 22% at 3.4 Mln T ( in particular for oranges , lemons and grapefruit; due to
alternaria easy peeler declining ) exports up by 7.8%

Israel:
! Recovery after peak low last season at 520.000 T last year => + 30% and also up 10% to average
! Concerns for the grapefruit markets

!
!

Egypt: Remains difficult to get estimates... !!!!!

Morocco:
! Production up by 6% to 1.8 Mln T
! Soft citrus to be delayed by 10 days smaller/normal size
! Oranges : on schedule, some consequences of heavy t in Souss

USA: official data to be released on 12 October

! Florida: slightly large crop despite citrus acreage down by 2.3 %

! Texas: lower crop due to February freeze
! California : Lower by 8% after bumper crop in 2010 ; late maturity. Expansion of soft citrus

Med forecast orange

Med production estimated 2 % up to last year NH at 9.7 Mnl T
EU production : 2% at 5.5 Mln T( 56.8% of Med prod compared to 59,1%
last year )
Non EU production : +8% at 4.2 Mln T

ORANGES
SPAIN
CYPRUS
ITALY
GREECE
TOTAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
MOROCCO
TURKEY
EGYPT
ISRAEL
TOTAL OTHER MED COUNTRIES
TOTAL MED BASIN

Production

Production

Production

Production

Prod. Forecast

Variation

2007/2008
2.705.000
29.200
2.293.500
930.500
5.958.200
732.400
1.173.000
1.800.000
115.000
3.820.400
9.778.600

2008/2009
3.462.571
23.360
1.500.000
802.000
5.787.931
790.000
1.230.000
1.620.000
173.000
3.813.000
9.600.931

2009/2010
2.756.042
24.000
2.293.500
860.000
5.933.542
710.000
1.230.000
1.700.000
140.000
3.780.000
9.713.542

2010/2011
2.997.000
24.000
1.950.000
685.000
5.656.000
875.000
1.260.000
1.700.000
73.500
3.908.500
9.564.500

2011/2012
2.685.000
24.000
2.300.000
525.000
5.534.000
976.000
1.386.000
1.700.000
145.000
4.207.000
9.741.000

(10/11)/(11/12)
-10%
0%
18%
-23%
-2%
12%
10%
0%
97%
8%
2%

Export orange
Med export to all destination close to 3.3 Mln T due to
Increase on non EU ( +90.000 T ) at 1.5 Mln T
Decrease from EU suppliers both Spain and Greece are down ( 150.000 T)
at 1.77 Mln T
ORANGES
SPAIN
CYPRUS
ITALY
GREECE
EU MED
MOROCCO
TURKEY
EGYPT
ISRAEL
NON EU MED
TOTAL MED BASIN

Exports

Exports

Exports

2009/2010
1.112.393
3.447
132.589
435.918
1.684.347
216.000
201.324
855.000
35.000
1.307.324
2.991.671

2010/2011
1.445.061
8.500
117.400
335.000
1.905.961
170.000
328.761
900.000
12.500
1.411.261
3.317.222

2011/2012
1.325.000
8.500
130.000
310.000
1.773.500
222.000
361.093
900.000
25.000
1.508.093
3.281.593

Med forecast soft citrus

Med production estimated to be 8% down at 4.972.000 T
EU production : 11% ( 57,2% compared to 59% last year )
Non EU production 4%

EASY PEELERS
SPAIN
CYPRUS
ITALY
GREECE
TOTAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
MOROCCO
TURKEY
EGYPT
ISRAEL
TOTAL OTHER MED COUNTRIES
TOTAL MED BASIN

2007/2008
2.040.000
61.300
702.700
64.910
2.868.910
471.600
495.000
660.000
133.000
1.759.600
4.628.510

2008/2009
2.229.626
49.040
527.000
58.500
2.864.166
531.000
650.000
594.000
130.000
1.905.000
4.769.166

2009/2010
2.021.023
50.000
702.700
62.000
2.835.723
570.000
500.000
625.000
150.000
1.845.000
4.680.723

2010/2011
2.197.000
55.000
850.000
100.000
3.202.000
781.000
687.500
625.000
135.000
2.228.500
5.430.500

2011/2012
1.914.000
51.000
770.000
100.000
2.835.000
763.000
584.375
625.000
165.000
2.137.375
4.972.375

Variation
-13%
-7%
-9%
0%
-11%
-2%
-15%
0%
22%
-4%
-8%

Export soft citrus

Med export to be lower by 150.000 T but
Lower EU export by 170.000 T ( Spain )
Peak volume of export at 900.000 T , including larger export target for
Turkey despite lower crop
EASY PEELERS
SPAIN

2009/2010

2010/2011

2011/2012
1.454.000

1.663.747

1.621.220

CYPRUS

41.705

28.000

26.000

ITALY

114.077

117.400

115.000

GREECE

99.471

77.500

75.000

EU MED

1.918.999

1.844.120

1.670.000

MOROCCO

309.000

347.000

350.000

TURKEY

327.259

451.282

473.846

EGYPT

10.000

10.000

10.000

ISRAEL

60.000

56.000

70.000

NON EU MED

706.259

864.282

903.846

TOTAL MED BASIN

2.625.258

2.708.402

2.573.846

Med forecast lemon

Total Med production to be 10=% up to
3.098.000T
EU production : 4% at 1.5 Mln T ( 50.6% of Med
production compared to 55.5% last year )
Non EU production : +17 % also at 1.5 Mln T
LEMONS
SPAIN
CYPRUS
ITALY
GREECE
TOTAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
MOROCCO (Other citru
TURKEY
EGYPT
ISRAEL
TOTAL OTHER MED COUNTRIES
TOTAL MED BASIN

2007/2008
552.192
17.500
546.600
46.500
1.162.792
35.000
500.000
335.000
64.000
934.000
2.096.792

2008/2009
945.562
14.000
655.920
30.500
1.645.982
39.000
550.000
301.500
45.000
935.500
2.581.482

2009/2010
673.075
15.000
655.920
40.000
1.383.995
40.000
750.000
320.000
55.000
1.165.000
2.548.995

2010/2011
930.512
16.500
488.000
25.000
1.460.012
80.000
860.000
320.000
43.500
1.303.500
2.763.512

2011/2012
870.000
18.300
600.000
30.000
1.518.300
80.000
1.075.000
320.000
55.000
1.530.000
3.048.300

Variation
-7%
11%
23%
20%
4%
0%
25%
0%
26%
17%
10%

Export lemon
Med export at 1.050.000 T
EU export at 509.000 T
Ongoing push from Turkey at 512.000 T
LEMONS
SPAIN
CYPRUS
ITALY
GREECE
EU MED
MOROCCO (Other citrus)
TURKEY
EGYPT
ISRAEL

2009/2010
325.025
3.997
18.382

2010/2011
464.627
3.600
29.700

2011/2012
475.000
4.000
25.000

2.385

3.000

5.000

349.788
7.000
417.858
23.000

500.927
7.000
465.867
20.000

509.000
7.000
512.454
20.000

3.000

500

2.000

NON EU MED

450.858

493.367

541.454

TOTAL MED BASIN

800.646

994.294

1.050.454

Med grapefruit production

Med grapefruit production to be up by 24 % at 665.000T

EU production stable at 77.000 T

Non EU production pushed up by Turkey to
588.000 T
GRAPEFUITS
SPAIN
CYPRUS
ITALY
GREECE
TOTAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
MOROCCO
TURKEY
EGYPT
ISRAEL
TOTAL OTHER MED COUNTRIES
TOTAL MED BASIN

2007/2008
46.194
28.600
0
7.300
82.094
0
245.000
0
235.000
480.000
562.094

2008/2009
50.814
22.800
0
6.500
80.114
0
170.000
0
220.000
390.000
470.114

2009/2010
52.000
23.000
0
7.000
82.000
0
300.000
0
215.000
515.000
597.000

2010/2011
53.070
23.000
0
1.000
77.070
0
270.000
0
188.000
458.000
535.070

2011/2012
56.000
20.200
0
1.000
77.200
0
378.000
0
210.000
588.000
665.200

Variation
6%
-12%
0%
0%
40%
12%
28%
24%

Grapefruit export
Med grapefruit export to remain around 300.000 T

Challenging market & declining consumption

Stocks from SH , Mexico ,....
GRAPEFUITS

2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012

SPAIN

37.164

43.770

46.500

CYPRUS

9.497

12.500

11.000

ITALY

5.540

7.400

6.000

GREECE

1.224

EU MED

53.424

63.670

63.500

MOROCCO

TURKEY

152.442

152.871

160.515

EGYPT

12.600

90.000

85.000

85.000

NON EU MED

ISRAEL

255.042

237.871

245.515

TOTAL MED BASIN

308.466

301.541

309.015

Med Total Citrus production

Med citrus production to be overall stable to last year at
18.476.875 T but :
EU production : 5% ( 54.2% of Med production ) at 10 Mln T
=> lowest of the last 5 years
Non EU production + 6% at 8.4 Mln T => highest from the last
5 years
TOTAL CITRUS
SPAIN
CYPRUS
ITALY
GREECE
TOTAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
MOROCCO
TURKEY
EGYPT
ISRAEL
TOTAL OTHER MED COUNTRIES
TOTAL MED BASIN

2007/2008
5.343.386
136.600
3.542.800
1.049.210
10.071.996
1.239.000
2.413.000
2.795.000
547.000
6.994.000
17.065.996

2008/2009
6.688.573
109.200
2.682.920
897.500
10.378.193
1.360.000
2.600.000
2.515.500
568.000
7.043.500
17.421.693

2009/2010
5.502.140
112.000
3.652.120
969.000
10.235.260
1.320.000
2.780.000
2.645.000
580.000
7.325.000
17.560.260

2010/2011
6.177.582
118.500
3.450.000
811.000
10.557.082
1.736.000
3.077.500
2.645.000
520.000
7.978.500
18.535.582

2011/2012
5.525.000
113.500
3.720.000
656.000
10.014.500
1.819.000
3.423.375
2.645.000
575.000
8.462.375
18.476.875

Variation
-11%
-4%
8%
-19%
-5%
5%
11%
0%
11%
6%
0%

Export Citrus
Med citrus export to be slighty lower by 100.000 T than last year
at 7.2 Mln T but
EU supply to be similar to 2009/2010 at 4 Mln T
Non EU supply to be 200.000 T highrt at 3.2 Mln T
TOTAL CITRUS
SPAIN

2009/2010

2010/2011

2011/2012

3.138.328

3.574.678

3.300.500

CYPRUS

58.645

52.600

49.500

ITALY

270.589

271.900

276.000

GREECE

538.998

415.500

390.000

EU MED

4.006.559

4.314.678

4.016.000

MOROCCO

532.000

524.000

579.000

TURKEY

1.098.884

1.398.781

1.507.907

EGYPT

900.600

930.000

930.000

ISRAEL

188.000

154.000

182.000

NON EU MED

2.719.484

3.006.781

3.198.907

TOTAL MED BASIN

6.726.042

7.321.459

7.214.907

Conclusions
Outlook in time of crisis :

Price return down in the chain

Increasing cost ( energy, intrants, labor )
Economic and financial crisis : market uncertainties
Exchange rate fluctuations
Impact of crisis on consumption ( citrus and other product, available
income, frequency of purchase, pack type,)
Changing lifestyle
Competition among product categories and with other food and non
food product
Competitiveness for EU producers with growing players ( TK, EG)
Plant health threat : citrus greening
Consequences of EHEC
on the sector
on consumer confidence

Conclusions
Remedy :
Communication : fresh produce are cheap compared to
other agrifood product
Health benefit of fresh produce
Claims and image protection
Communication other positive assets ( www.enjoyfresh.eu )
Changing CAP ( fruit school scheme, promotion ,..)
Balancing markets to avoid overlap => market transparency
Status of consumption
Innovation

Thank you!

www.freshfel.org
www.enjoyfresh.org
www.freshquality.org