EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Commodity market in India
Commodity markets are markets where raw or primary products are exchanged. It covers
physical product (Iood, metals, and electricity) markets but not the ways that services, including
those oI governments, nor investment nor debt, can be seen as a commodity.
The Indian economy is witnessing a mini revolution in commodity derivatives and risk
management. Commodity options trading and cash settlement oI commodity Iutures had been
banned since 1952 and until 2002 commodity derivatives market was virtually non-existent,
except some negligible activity on an OTC basis. In September 2005, the country had 3 national
level electronic exchanges and 21 regional exchanges Ior trading commodity derivatives. As
many as eighty (80) commodities have been allowed Ior derivatives trading. The value oI trading
has been booming and is likely to touch $5 Trillion in a Iew years.

1.2 History

The history oI organized commodity derivatives in India goes back to the nineteenth
century when the Cotton Trade Association started Iutures trading in 1875, barely about a decade
aIter the commodity derivatives started in Chicago. Over time the derivatives market developed
in several other commodities in India. Following cotton, derivatives trading started in oilseeds in
Bombay (1900), raw jute and jute goods in Calcutta (1912), wheat in Hapur (1913) and in
Bullion in Bombay (1920).
However, many Ieared that derivatives Iuelled unnecessary speculation in essential commodities,
and were detrimental to the healthy Iunctioning oI the markets Ior the underlying commodities,
and hence to the Iarmers. With a view to restricting speculative activity in cotton market, the
Government oI Bombay prohibited options business in cotton in 1939. Later in 1943, Iorward
trading was prohibited in oilseeds and some other commodities including Iood-grains, spices,
vegetable oils, sugar and cloth.
AIter Independence, the Parliament passed Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1952 which
regulated Iorward contracts in commodities all over India. The Act applies to goods, which are
deIined as any movable property other than security, currency and actionable claims. The Act

prohibited options trading in goods along with cash settlements oI Iorward trades, rendering a
crushing blow to the commodity derivatives market.
Under the Act, only those associations/exchanges, which are granted recognition by the
Government, are allowed to organize Iorward trading in regulated commodities. The Act
envisages three-tier regulation: (i) The Exchange which organizes Iorward trading in
commodities can regulate trading on a day-to-day basis; (ii) the Forward Markets Commission
provides regulatory oversight under the powers delegated to it by the central Government, and
(iii) the Central Government Department oI Consumer AIIairs, Ministry oI Consumer AIIairs,
Food and Public Distribution is the ultimate regulatory authority.The already shaken
commodity derivatives market got a crushing blow when in 1960s, Iollowing several years oI
severe draughts that Iorced many Iarmers to deIault on Iorward contracts (and even caused some
suicides), Iorward trading was banned in many commodities considered primary or essential. As
a result, commodities derivative markets dismantled and went underground where to some extent
they continued as OTC contracts at negligible volumes. Much later, in 1970s and 1980s the
Government relaxed Iorward trading rules Ior some commodities, but the market could never
regain the lost volumes.

1.3 Change in Government Policy

AIter the Indian economy embarked upon the process oI liberalization and globalization
in 1990, the Government set up a Committee in 1993 to examine the role oI Iutures trading. The
Committee (headed by ProI. K.N. Kabra) recommended allowing Iutures trading in 17
commodity groups. It also recommended strengthening oI the Forward Markets Commission,
and certain amendments to Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act 1952, particularly allowing
options trading in goods and registration oI brokers with Forward Markets Commission. The
Government accepted most oI these recommendations and Iutures trading were permitted in all
recommended commodities.
Commodity Iutures trading in India remained in a state oI hibernation Ior nearly Iour decades,
mainly due to doubts about the beneIits oI derivatives. Finally a realization that derivatives do
perIorm a role in risk management led the government to change its stance. The policy changes
Iavoring commodity derivatives were also Iacilitated by the enhanced role assigned to Iree
market Iorces under the new liberalization policy oI the Government. Indeed, it was a timely

decision too, since internationally the commodity cycle is on the upswing and the next decade is
being touted as the decade oI commodities.

1.4 Commodity Derivatives

India is among the top-5 producers oI most oI the commodities, in addition to being a
major consumer oI bullion and energy products. Agriculture contributes about 22° to the GDP
oI the Indian economy. It employees around 57° oI the labor Iorce on a total oI 163 million
hectares oI land. Agriculture sector is an important Iactor in achieving a GDP growth oI 8-10°.
All this indicates that India can be promoted as a major center Ior trading oI commodity
derivatives.
It is unIortunate that the policies oI FMC during the most oI 1950s to 1980s suppressed the very
markets it was supposed to encourage and nurture to grow with times. It was a mistake other
emerging economies oI the world would want to avoid. However, it is not in India alone that
derivatives were suspected oI creating too much speculation that would be to the detriment oI the
healthy growth oI the markets and the Iarmers. Such suspicions might normally arise due to a
misunderstanding oI the characteristics and role oI derivative product.
It is important to understand why commodity derivatives are required and the role they can play
in risk management. It is common knowledge that prices oI commodities, metals, shares and
currencies Iluctuate over time. The possibility oI adverse price changes in Iuture creates risk Ior
businesses. Derivatives are used to reduce or eliminate price risk arising Irom unIoreseen price
changes. A derivative is a Iinancial contract whose price depends on, or is derived Irom, the
price oI another asset.
Two important derivatives are Iutures and options.

Commodity Futures Contracts: A Iutures contract is an agreement Ior buying or selling a
commodity Ior a predetermined delivery price at a speciIic Iuture time. Futures are standardized
contracts that are traded on organized Iutures exchanges that ensure perIormance oI the contracts
and thus remove the deIault risk. The commodity Iutures have existed since the Chicago Board
oI Trade (CBOT, www.cbot.com) was established in 1848 to bring Iarmers and merchants
together. The major Iunction oI Iutures markets is to transIer price risk Irom hedgers to
speculators. For example, suppose a Iarmer is expecting his crop oI wheat to be ready in two
months` time, but is worried that the price oI wheat may decline in this period. In order to

minimize his risk, he can enter into a Iutures contract to sell his crop in two months` time at a
price determined now. This way he is able to hedge his risk arising Irom a possible adverse
change in the price oI his commodity.

Commodity Options contracts: Like Iutures, options are also Iinancial instruments used Ior
hedging and speculation. The commodity option holder has the right, but not the obligation, to
buy (or sell) a speciIic quantity oI a commodity at a speciIied price on or beIore a speciIied date.
Option contracts involve two parties the seller oI the option writes the option in Iavour oI the
buyer (holder) who pays a certain premium to the seller as a price Ior the option. There are two
types oI commodity options: a call` option gives the holder a right to buy a commodity at an
agreed price, while a put` option gives the holder a right to sell a commodity at an agreed price
on or beIore a speciIied date (called expiry date).
The option holder will exercise the option only iI it is beneIicial to him; otherwise he will
let the option lapse. For example, suppose a Iarmer buys a put option to sell 100 Quintals oI
wheat at a price oI $25 per quintal and pays a premium` oI $0.5 per quintal (or a total oI $50). II
the price oI wheat declines to say $20 beIore expiry, the Iarmer will exercise his option and sell
his wheat at the agreed price oI $25 per quintal. However, iI the market price oI wheat increases
to say $30 per quintal, it would be advantageous Ior the Iarmer to sell it directly in the open
market at the spot price, rather than exercise his option to sell at $25 per quintal.
Futures and options trading thereIore helps in hedging the price risk and also provide
investment opportunity to speculators who are willing to assume risk Ior a possible return.
Further, Iutures trading and the ensuing discovery oI price can help Iarmers in deciding which
crops to grow. They can also help in building a competitive edge and enable businesses to
smoothen their earnings because non-hedging oI the risk would increase the volatility oI their
quarterly earnings. Thus Iutures and options markets perIorm important Iunctions that cannot be
ignored in modern business environment. At the same time, it is true that too much speculative
activity in essential commodities would destabilize the markets and thereIore, these markets are
normally regulated as per the laws oI the country.
The biggest advantage to trading Iutures contracts is the leverage provided by the
exchange. However, controlling large contracts with relatively low amounts oI capital can create
high levels oI volatility. As a result, many traders will argue that leverage is actually a

disadvantage. Regardless oI your opinion on leverage and margin requirements, it is important
that you Iully understand the concepts.
BeIore a customer can establish a position he is required to make a minimum 'good Iaith
deposit,¨ or margin, to assure the perIormance oI his obligations. A margin deposit is, in essence,
a perIormance bond, which is usually between 5° and 10° oI the underlying contract value. A
good Iaith deposit indicates the buyer or seller`s willingness and capability to compensate the
opposite party to a transaction.
Because margin requirements are low, hedgers are given the ability to lock in pricing oI cash
market goods without tying up a lot oI capital. It would be counterproductive Ior a hedger who
handles large quantities to put up 100° oI the value oI the hedged commodity. The exchange
grants margin discounts to those that are deemed to be 'boneIied¨ hedgers, due to the Iact that
the underlying cash position is seen as collateral to secure the capital risked in the Iutures
market.
Low margins make speculation in the Iutures markets very attractive, without the advantage oI
leverage the rate oI return on most commodities would be marginal. The exchanges are
responsible Ior setting margin requirements, but brokerage Iirms have discretion to require
higher deposits. Generally, the initial margin is suIIicient to cover the maximum daily price
Iluctuations. It is not uncommon Ior margin requirements to Iluctuate with the volatility oI the
market. A maintenance level is established below the initial margin, usually 75° oI the initial
margin. Once a trader's good Iaith deposit Ialls below this threshold additional Iunds must be
deposited or positions must be liquidated. This is known as a margin call.

Market Order: The purpose oI a market order is to execute a trade immediately at the best
possible price. Such orders give traders the ability to enter or exit a trade quickly, but do not
guarantee a Iavorable price. This order should be used when time is more valuable than price.

Limit Order: Limit orders are used to buy or sell at a speciIied price or better, and will only be
Iilled at the state price or one that is more Iavorable. For a sell limit order 'better¨ means higher,
Ior buy limit orders 'better¨ means lower.
Stop Order: This type oI order is usually placed to close a position; its name is derived Irom the
Iact that, iI placed properly, it will 'stop loss¨ should the market go against a trader`s position.
Most traders chose to place a stop order at the time that they enter a position. By deIinition, a sell

stop will be placed below the market while a buy stop will be placed above. All orders are day
orders unless speciIied otherwise and are canceled at the end oI the trading day. By entering the
order GTC (good till canceled), the order will be working in each trading session until cancelled
by the trader.

1.5 Modern Commodity Exchanges

To make up Ior the loss oI growth and development during the Iour decades oI restrictive
government policies, FMC and the Government encouraged setting up oI the commodity
exchanges using the most modern systems and practices in the world. Some oI the main
regulatory measures imposed by the FMC include daily mark to market system oI margins,
creation oI trade guarantee Iund, back-oIIice computerization Ior the existing single commodity
Exchanges, online trading Ior the new Exchanges, demutualization Ior the new Exchanges, and
one-third representation oI independent Directors on the Boards oI existing Exchanges etc.
Responding positively to the Iavorable policy changes, several Nation-wide Multi-Commodity
Exchanges (NMCE) have been set up since 2002, using modern practices such as electronic
trading and clearing. The two most important commodity exchanges in India are |Multi-
Commodity Exchange oI India Limited (MCX), and National Multi-Commodity & Derivatives
Exchange oI India Limited (NCDEX)|.

List of traded commodities

Agricultural Products
Corn, Oats, Rough Rice, Soybeans, Rapeseed, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil,
Wheat, Cocoa, CoIIee , Cotton No.2, Sugar No.11, Sugar No.14.
Livestock and meat
Lean Hogs, Frozen Pork Bellies, Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle.
Energy
WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude, Ethanol, Natural Gas, Heating Oil, GulI Coast Gasoline, RBOB
Gasoline, Propane, Uranium.
Precious Metal
Gold,Platinum, Palladium, Silver.

Industrial Metals
Copper, Lead, Zinc, Tin, Aluminum, aluminum alloy, Nickel, aluminum
alloy, Recycled steel.

O THE NCDEX
National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX) is a technology driven
commodity exchange. It is a public limited company registered under the Companies Act, 1956
with the Registrar oI Companies, Maharashtra in Mumbai on April 23, 2003. It has an
independent Board oI Directors and proIessionals not having any vested interest in commodity
markets. It has been launched to provide a world-class commodity exchange platIorm Ior market
participants to trade in a wide spectrum oI commodity derivatives driven by best global
practices, proIessionalism and transparency.

NCDEX is regulated by Forward Markets Commission in respect oI Iutures trading in
commodities. Besides, NCDEX is subjected to various laws oI the land like the Companies Act,
Stamp Act, Contracts Act, Forward Commission (Regulation) Act and various other legislations,
which impinge on its working. It is located in Mumbai and oIIers Iacilities to its members in
about 91 cities throughout India at the moment. NCDEX currently Iacilitates trading oI ten
commodities - gold, silver, soy bean, soy bean oil, rapeseed-mustard seed, expeller rapeseed-
mustard seed oil, and RBD palmolein, crude Palm oil and cotton, Medium and long staple
varieties, At subsequent phases trading in more commodities would be Iacilitated.


NCDEX is run by an independent Board oI Directors. Promoters do not participate in the day to
day activities oI the exchange. The directors are appointed in accordance with the provisions oI
the Articles oI Association oI the company. The board is responsible Ior managing and
regulating all the operations oI the exchange and commodities transactions. It Iormulates the
rules and regulations related to the operations oI the exchange. Board appoints an executive
committee and other committees Ior the purpose oI managing activities oI the exchange.
The executive committee consists oI Managing Director oI the exchange who would be acting as
the ChieI Executive oI the exchange, and also other members appointed by the board.

Apart Irom the executive committee the board has constitute committee like Membership
committee, Audit Committee, Risk Committee, Nomination Committee, Compensation
Committee and Business Strategy Committee, which, help the Board in policy Iormulation.
As we saw in the Iirst chapter, every market transaction consists oI three components:
O Trading
O clearing
O Settlement
TRADING
The trading system on the NCDEX provides a Iully automated screen. Based trading Ior Iutures
on commodities on a nationwide basis as well as an online monitoring and surveillance
mechanism. It supports an order driven market and provides complete transparency oI trading
operations. The trade timings oI the NCDEX are 10.00 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. AIter hours trading has
also been proposed Ior implementation at a later stage.

The NCDEX system supports an order driven market, where orders match
automatically. Order matching is essentially on the basis oI commodity, its price, time and
quantity. All quantity Iields are in units and price in rupees. The exchange speciIies the unit oI
trading and the delivery unit Ior Iutures contracts on various commodities. The exchange notiIies
the regular lot size and tick size Ior each oI the contracts traded Irom time to time. When any
order enters the trading system, it is an active order. It tries to Iind a match on the other side oI
the book. II it Iinds a match, a trade is generated. II it does not Iind a match, the order becomes
passive and gets queued in the respective outstanding order book in the system. Time stamping is
done Ior each trade and provides the possibility Ior a complete audit trail iI required.

NCDEX trades commodity Iutures contracts having one Month, two Month and three month
expiry cycles. All contracts expire on the 20th oI the expiry month. Thus a January expiration
contract would expire on the 20th oI January and a February expiry contract would cease trading
on the 20th oI February. II the 20th oI the expiry month is a trading holiday, the contracts shall
expire on the previous trading day. New contracts will be introduced on the trading day
Iollowing the expiry oI the near month contract.

CLEARING
National Securities Clearing Corporation Limited (NSCCL) undertakes clearing oI trades
executed on the NCDEX. The settlement guarantee Iund is maintained and managed by NCDEX.
Only clearing members including proIessional clearing members (PCMs) only are entitled to
clear and settle contracts through the clearing house.
At NCDEX, aIter the trading hours on the expiry date, based on the available inIormation, the
matching Ior deliveries takes place Iirstly, on the basis oI locations and then randomly, keeping
in view the Iactors such as available capacity oI the vault/ warehouse, commodities already
deposited and dematerialized and oIIered Ior delivery etc., Matching done by this process is
binding on the clearing members. AIter completion oI the matching process, clearing members
are inIormed oI the deliverable/ receivable positions and the unmatched positions. Unmatched
positions have to be settled in cash. The cash settlement is only Ior the incremental gain/ loss as
determined on the basis oI Iinal settlement price.

SETTLEMENT

Futures contracts have two types oI settlements, the MTM settlement which happens on a
continuous basis at the end oI each day, and the Iinal settlement which happens on the last
trading day oI the Iutures contract. On the NCDEX, daily MTM settlement and Iinal MTM
settlement in respect oI admitted deals in Iutures contracts are cash settled by debiting/ crediting
the clearing accounts oI CMs with the respective clearing bank. All positions oI a CM, either
brought Iorward, created during the day or closed out during the day, are market to market at the
daily settlement price or the Iinal settlement price at the close oI trading hours on a day. On the
date oI expiry, the Iinal settlement price is the spot price on the expiry day. The Responsibility oI
settlement is on a trading cum clearing member Ior all trades done on his own account and his
client's trades. A proIessional clearing member is responsible Ior settling all the participants`
trades which he has conIirmed to the exchange.

On the expiry date oI a Iutures contract, members submit delivery inIormation through delivery
request window on the trader workstations provided by NCDEX Ior all open positions Ior a
commodity Ior all constituents individually. NCDEX on receipt oI such inIormation matches the
inIormation and arrives at a delivery position Ior a member Ior a commodity.

The seller intending to make delivery takes the commodities to the designated warehouse. These
commodities have to be assayed by the exchange speciIied assayer. The commodities have to
meet the contract speciIications with allowed variances. II the commodities meet the
speciIications, the warehouse accepts them. Warehouse then ensures that the receipts get
updatedin the depository system giving a credit in the depositor's electronic account. The seller
then gives the invoice to his clearing member, who would courier the same to the buyer's
clearing member. On an appointed date, the buyer goes to the warehouse and takes physical
possession oI the commodities.

O MULTI-COMMODITY EXCHANGE OF INDIA LIMITED (MCX)
MCX an independent and de-mutualized multi commodity exchange has permanent recognition
Irom Government oI India Ior Iacilitating online trading, clearing and settlement operations Ior
commodity Iutures markets across the country. Key shareholders oI MCX are Financial
Technologies (India) Ltd., State Bank oI India, NABARD, NSE, HDFC Bank, State Bank oI
Indore, State Bank oI Hyderabad, State Bank oI Saurashtra, SBI LiIe Insurance Co. Ltd., Union
Bank oI India, Bank OI India, Bank OI Baroda, Canara Bank, Corporation Bank.
Headquartered in Mumbai, MCX is led by an expert management team with deep domain
knowledge oI the commodity Iutures markets. Through the integration oI dedicated resources,
robust technology and scalable inIrastructure, since inception MCX has recorded many Iirst to its
credit.
Inaugurated in November 2003 by ShriMukeshAmbani, Chairman & Managing Director,
Reliance Industries Ltd, MCX oIIers Iutures trading in the Iollowing commodity categories:
Agro Commodities, Bullion, Metals- Ferrous & Non-Ierrous, Pulses, Oils & Oilseeds, Energy,
Plantations, Spices and other soIt commodities. MCX has built strategic alliances with some oI
the largest players in commodities eco-system, namely, Bombay Bullion Association, Bombay
Metal Exchange, Solvent Extractors' Association oI India, Pulses Importers Association,
ShetkariSanghatana, United Planters Association oI India and India Pepper and Spice Trade
Association.

Today MCX is oIIering spectacular growth opportunities and advantages to a large cross section
oI the participants including Producers / Processors, Traders, Corporate, Regional Trading
Centers, Importers, Exporters, Cooperatives, Industry Associations, amongst others MCX being
nation-wide commodity exchange, oIIering multiple commodities Ior trading with wide reach
and penetration and robust inIrastructure, is well placed to tap this vast potential.

Hedging-Blessing or Curse
Even though the commodity derivatives market has made good progress in the last Iew years, the
real issues Iacing the Iuture oI the market have not been resolved. Agreed, the number oI
commodities allowed Ior derivative trading have increased, the volume and the value oI business
has zoomed, but the objectives oI setting up commodity derivative exchanges may not be
achieved and the growth rates witnessed may not be sustainable unless these real issues are
sorted out as soon as possible. Some oI the main unresolved issues are discussed below.

a. Commodity Options: Trading in commodity options contracts has been banned since 1952.
The market Ior commodity derivatives cannot be called complete without the presence oI this
Important derivative. Both Iutures and options are necessary Ior the healthy growth oI the
market.
While Iutures contracts help a participant (say a Iarmer) to hedge against downside price
movements, it does not allow him to reap the beneIits oI an increase in prices. No doubt there is
an immediate need to bring about the necessary legal and regulatory changes to introduce
commodity options trading in the country. The matter is said to be under the active consideration
oI the Government and the options trading may be introduced in the near Iuture.

b. 1he Warehousing and Standardization: For commodity derivatives market to work
eIIiciently, it is necessary to have a sophisticated, cost-eIIective, reliable and convenient
warehousing system in the country. The Habibullah (2003) task Iorce admitted, 'A sophisticated
warehousing industry has yet to come about¨. Further, independent labs or quality testing centers
should be set up in each region to certiIy the quality, grade and quantity oI commodities so that
they are appropriately standardized and there are no shocks waiting Ior the ultimate buyer who
takes the physical delivery. Warehouses also need to be conveniently located.

Central Warehousing Corporation oI India (CWC: www.Iieo.com) is operating 500 Warehouses
across the country with a storage capacity oI 10.4 million tons. This is obviously not adequate Ior
a vast country. To resolve the problem, a GraminBhandaranYojana (Rural Warehousing Plan)
has been introduced to construct new and expand the existing rural godowns. Large scale
privatization oI state warehouses is also being examined.

c. Cash versus Physical Settlement: It is probably due to the ineIIiciencies in the present
warehousing system that only about 1° to 5° oI the total commodity derivatives trades in the
country are settled in physical delivery. ThereIore the warehousing problem obviously has to be
handled on a war Iooting, as a good delivery system is the backbone oI any commodity trade. A
particularly diIIicult problem in cash settlement oI commodity derivative contracts is that at
present, under the Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act 1952, cash settlement oI outstanding
contracts at maturity is not allowed. In other words, all outstanding contracts at maturity should
be settled in physical delivery. To avoid this, participants square oII their positions beIore
maturity. So, in practice, most contracts are settled in cash but beIore maturity. There is a need
to modiIy the law to bring it closer to the widespread practice and save the participants Irom
unnecessary hassles.
d. 1he Regulator: As the market activity pick-up and the volumes rise, the market will deIinitely
need a strong and independent regular; similar to the Securities and Exchange Board oI India
(SEBI) that regulates the securities markets. Unlike SEBI which is an independent body, the
Forwards Markets Commission (FMC) is under the Department oI Consumer AIIairs (Ministry
oI Consumer AIIairs, Food and Public Distribution) and depends on it Ior Iunds. It is imperative
that the Government should grant more powers to the FMC to ensure an orderly development oI
the commodity markets. The SEBI and FMC also need to work closely with each other due to the
inter-relationship between the two markets.
e. Lack of Economy of Scale: There are too many (3 national level and 21 regional) commodity
exchanges. Though over 80 commodities are allowed Ior derivatives trading, in practice
derivatives are popular Ior only a Iew commodities. Again, most oI the trade takes place only on
a Iew exchanges. All this splits volumes and makes some exchanges unviable. This problem can
possibly be addressed by consolidating some exchanges. Also, the question oI convergence oI
securities and commodities derivatives markets has been debated Ior a long time now. The

Government oI India has announced its intention to integrate the two markets. It is Ielt that
convergence oI these derivative markets would bring in economies oI scale and scope without
having to duplicate the eIIorts, thereby giving a boost to the growth oI commodity derivatives
market. It would also help in resolving some oI the issues concerning regulation oI the derivative
markets. However, this would necessitate complete coordination among various regulating
authorities such as Reserve Bank oI India, Forward Markets commission, the Securities and
Exchange Board oI India, and the Department oI Company aIIairs etc.
I. 1ax and Legal bottlenecks: There are at present restrictions on the movement oI certain goods
Irom one state to another. These need to be removed so that a truly national market could
develop Ior commodities and derivatives. Also, regulatory changes are required to bring about
uniIormity in octroi and sales taxes etc. VAT has been introduced in the country in 2005, but has
not yet been uniIormly implemented by all states.
5. FINDINGS AND SUGGESTIONS
O India is one oI the top producers oI a large number oI commodities, and also has a long
history oI trading in commodities and related derivatives. The market has made enormous
progress in terms oI technology, transparency and the trading activity. Interestingly, this
has happened only aIter the Government protection was removed Irom a number oI
commodities, and market Iorces were allowed to play their role.

O The management oI price risk is going to assume even greater importance in Iuture with
the promotion oI Iree trade and removal oI trade barriers in the world.

O Even though the commodity derivatives market has made good progress in the last Iew
years, the real issues Iacing the Iuture oI the market have not been resolved. The
objectives oI setting up commodity derivative exchanges may not be achieved and the
growth rates witnessed may not be sustainable unless these real issues are sorted out as
soon as possible.
O Sugar prices in India are thereIore inIluenced by various demand supply Iactors operating
within the country, international sugar beet and sugarcane prices, demand Ior reIined

sugar Irom abroad, Candy and conIectionery sales , prices oI sugarcane and the other
sugar sources, are less likely to have any major impact on sugar prices in India.
O The international trade in sugar has changed dramatically. Perhaps the greatest change in
the international sugar trade has been the trend toward price stabilization. Historically at
the mercy oI everything Irom war to weather, the price oI sugar still has always been
extremely volatile.

O Despite the economic recession world over, sugar consumption growth was less impacted
and remained positive. The supply-demand disequilibrium has been caused essentially by
the strident slippage in Indian production, exacerbated by the decline in EU and other
Asian countries.

O The statistical outlook Ior the market till the end oI the season in September 2009 Ior
sugar remains constructive and supportive to the market values.

O Wheat Iarmers have little impact on demand, but putting all the heads together can make
a signiIicant diIIerence in product demand and market price. And that leads to the
ultimate goal oI the improved income Ior wheat producers.

O World wheat consumption is consistently growing with growth in population, as it is one
oI the major staple Ioods across the world.There exists a clear trough and crest in the
seasonality oI wheat production, indicating a typical seasonality in the production cycle.

O Factors that inIluence price are Supply demand scenario oI wheat and its competing crops
like maize, barley etc., in the global market apart Irom other staple Ioods such as grains

O Wheat anticipates a change in trend Irom up to down on a break Irom the month oI May
2010.

SUGGESTIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

O The Govt should take all possible steps to solve the unresolved issues such as
4 Commodity Options
4 1he Warehousing and Standardization
4 Cash versus Physical Settlement
4 1he Regulator
4 Lack of Economy of Scale
4 1ax and Legal bottlenecks

O More training should be carried out periodically to enhance the skills oI the persons
involved in commodity trading

O Implementation aspects oI margining and risk management at NCDEX must be monitored
continuously

O To impart knowledge on Commodity Market and their uses to Business Management
Students by revising courses taking into consideration the increasing importance oI
Commodity Market in India as an investment avenue.

O More simpler analytical techniques must be developed Ior analysis and interpretation oI
commodity Iutures charts and data.

CONCLUSION
India is one oI the top producers oI a large number oI commodities, and also has a long history oI
trading in commodities and related derivatives. The commodities derivatives market has seen ups
and downs, but seem to have Iinally arrived now. The market has made enormous progress in
terms oI technology, transparency and the trading activity. Interestingly, this has happened only
aIter the Government protection was removed Irom a number oI commodities, and market Iorces
were allowed to play their role. This should act as a major lesson Ior the policy makers in
developing countries, that pricing and price risk management should be leIt to the market Iorces

rather than trying to achieve these through administered price mechanisms. The management oI
price risk is going to assume even greater importance in Iuture with the promotion oI Iree trade
and removal oI trade barriers in the world. All this augurs well Ior the commodity derivatives
markets.

Did the prices oI a
While almost all agricultural product prices increased at least in nominal terms, the rate oI
increase varied signiIicantly Irom one commodity to another. In particular, international prices oI
basic Ioods, such as cereals, oilseeds and dairy products, increased Iar more dramatically than
the prices oI tropical products, such as coIIee and cocoa, and raw materials, such as cotton or
rubber.

ThereIore, developing countries dependent on exports oI these latter products Iound that while
their export earnings might have been increasing this was at a slower rate than the cost oI their
Iood imports. As many developing countries are net Iood importers, this imposed a serious
balance oI payments problem. The leap in Iood prices was in sharp contrast to the secular
downward trend and the prolonged slump in commodity prices Irom 1995 to 2002, which even
prompted calls Ior the revival oI international commodity agreements.

For some analysts, the increases or signaled the end oI the long-term decline in real agricultural
commodity prices, with The Economist (2007) announcing 'the end oI cheap Iood¨. It is an
interesting question whether these sharp increases are Iundamentally diIIerent Irom earlier price
spikes and whether the long-term decline in real prices could have come to a halt, signaling a
Iundamental change in agricultural commodity market behavior. High-price events, like low ice
low-price events, are not rare occurrences in agricultural markets, although high prices oIten tend
to be short-lived compared with low prices, which persist Ior longer periods.

What has distinguished this episode was the concurrence oI the hike in world prices oI not just a
Iew but oI nearly all major Iood and Ieed commodities and the possibility that the prices may
remain high aIter the eIIects oI short- term shocks dissipate In the Iirst Iour months oI 2008,
volatility in wheat and rice prices approached record highs (volatility in wheat prices was twice
the level oI the previous year while rice price volatility was Iive times higher). The increase in

volatility was not conIined to cereals vegetable oils, livestock products and sugar all witnessed
much larger price swings than in the recent past. High volatility means uncertainty, which
complicates decision-making Ior buyers and sellers.
Greater uncertainty limits opportunities Ior producers to access credit markets and tends to result
in the adoption oI low-risk production technologies at the expense oI innovation and
entrepreneurship. In addition, the wider and more unpredictable the price changes in a
commodity are, the greater is the possibility oI realizing large gains by speculating on Iuture
price movements oI that commodity.
THE STUDY
I. OB1ECTIVES OF THE STUDY
PRIMARY OB1ECTIVE
1) To under st and realist ically t he pat t ern oI Iluct uat ions oI pr ice indices
oI t wo agricult ural commodit ies and t he Iact ors behind t hat
SECONDARY OB1ECTIVE
2) To st udy t he operat ion oI commodit y t rading in india and assess it s
import ance
3) To provide a t rend analysis oI t he current MCX & NCDEX indices
II. SCOPE OF THE STUDY
Organized commodity derivatives in India started as early as 1875, barely about a decade aIter
they started in Chicago. However, many Ieared that derivatives Iuelled unnecessary speculation
and were detrimental to the healthy Iunctioning oI the markets Ior the underlying commodities.
As a result, aIter independence, commodity options trading and cash settlement oI commodity
Iutures were banned in 1952. A Iurther blow came in 1960s when, Iollowing several years oI
severe draughts that Iorced many Iarmers to deIault on Iorward contracts (and even caused some
suicides), Iorward trading was banned in many commodities considered primary or essential.
Consequently, the commodities derivative markets dismantled and remained dormant Ior about

Iour decades until the new millennium when the Government, in a complete change in policy,
started actively encouraging the commodity derivatives market. Since 2002, the commodities
Iutures market in India has experienced an unprecedented boom in terms oI the number oI
modern exchanges, number oI commodities allowed Ior derivatives trading as well as the value
oI Iutures trading in commodities, which might cross the $ 1 Trillion mark in 2006.
However, there are several impediments to be overcome and issues to be decided Ior sustainable
development oI the market. This paper attempts to answer questions such as:
How do price indices Iluctuate so easily and how to understand them?
Is this progress sustainable and what are the obstacles that need urgent attention iI the
market is to realize its Iull potential?
Why are commodity derivatives important and what could other emerging economies
learn Irom the Indian mistakes and experience?

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Magazines
O ISO February outlook 2009

Internet
Charts:
O www.barcharts.com
O www.chartsrus.com
O www.mongabay.com
O www.djindexes.com
O Dow 1ones Industrial Average Historical Prices / Charts
Trend and other information:
O www.crnindia.com
O www.indiamart.com
O www.ncdex.com

O www.Imc.gov.in
O http://uk.reuters.com

O http://oilprice.com

BOOKS
O Futures, options and swaps by Robert W. Kolb.
O Derivative markets in India 2003 edited by Susan Thomas.
O Options, Iutures and other derivatives by John Hull.
O Thomas Susan (2003): Agricultural Commodity Markets in India; Policy Issues Ior
Growth,Indira Gandhi Institute Ior Development Research, Mumbai.











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