The Exaflood

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Minnesota Ultra High-Speed Broadband Task Force
October.24.08

Bret Swanson Center for Global Innovation The Progress & Freedom Foundation | pff.org bret.swanson@gmail.com
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Internet’s Three Phases
• Phase One – Arpanet in 1969 • Phase Two – Net comes to the masses in
1995 via email and World Wide Web

• Phase Three – Broadband means “the

network is the computer” . . . Video ushers in the Exaflood
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Prefixes
kilo = 6 mega = 10 9 giga = 10 12 tera = 10 15 peta = 10 18 exa = 10 21 zetta = 10
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What is an exabyte?
• The Library of Congress holds about 20
million big books

• Each book is about 1 megabyte • The Library of Congress is thus 20
terabytes

• One exabyte is 50,000 Libraries of
Congress
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YouTube
– 50 petabytes per month as of mid-2007 – 600 petabytes per year – ~7% of U.S. Internet traffic – all original broadcast and cable TV and radio content adds up to ~100 petabytes per year – YouTube streams that much data in 2 months – YouTube receives 13 hours of video every minute = 18,720 hours of new video each day – a HI-DEF YouTube would mean 12 exabytes per year, or equal to the entire U.S. Internet of 2007 – YouTube and competitors still in their infancy
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Video conferencing
–MSN Messenger Video Calling in mid-2007 generated 4 petabytes per month = to the entire Net in 1997 –Cisco’s new Telepresence requires 15 Mbps symmetrical bandwidth –A one-hour conference call = 13.5 gigabytes –Just 75 of these calls would equal the entire Internet of 1990 –30 exabytes of telephone traffic each year –move to video-phones would mean 400 exabytes – at least – in the U.S., or 10x the size of the existing world Internet
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Home video / motion pictures
– 10 exabytes of home video each year – conversion to HD would mean 100 exabytes per year, or 3x today’s annual world Internet traffic – one HD movie is ~10 GB – Amazon, Netflix, Blockbuster, Apple all in the movie download business – So are cable companies and telcos, CinemaNow, MovieLink, etc. – With HD, NetFlix today would ship 5.8 exabytes of DVDs each year – American HD movie downloads could generate 100 exabytes per year, or 3x today’s world Internet
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IPTV
– Telcos and possibly cablecos moving to IPTV – Remains to be seen just what portion of content will actually traverse the Net – Regardless, last mile bandwidth must expand 10-100x to meet new IPTV challenges – Joost and competitors deliver free TV over the Net – 350 megabytes per hour – Mike Volpi of Cisco is CEO – Single-cast and multi-cast generates many times the traffic of broadcast – NBC streamed 50 million of its TV shows in October 2007 – NBC Universal and News Corp. launched premium Hulu with their considerable TV and film resources
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3D / Home theater
– Today’s HD video requires between 8 and 18 Mbps, depending on the codec – Next generation 3D video will require between 50 and 100 Mbps – HP Labs’ “IMAX at Home” – 4,096 x 2,304 pixels or 16 x 9 ft. image – 250 GB for two-hour movie (uncompressed) – Ultra High Def (UHDTV) – circa 2016 – 7,680 x 4,320 33 megapixels @ 60 fps, or 16-32x the pixels/sec of HDTV Uncompressed two-hour movie ~ 25 terabytes MPEG4 two-hour movie ~ 360 gigabytes – So all the HD numbers get multiplied by another 10x, which is 100x more than standard def video – 100 exabytes of HD video becomes a zettabyte of 3D
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Online games / Virtual Worlds
– Graphics chips from Nvidia and ATI make 3D gaming and virtual worlds a possibility for first time – Otoy / LightStage makes possible real-time 3D rendering and mass- and peer-to-peer distribution of rich video – One massively parallel game with 1 million players could generate 100 PB per month – more than an exabyte a year – or one-tenth today’s U.S. Internet

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photorealistic 3D ... rendered in real-time
http://www.amd.com/us-en/assets/content_type/DigitalMedia/AMD_Ruby_S04.swf

40 hours vs. Right Now

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LightStage

Real-life image capture and rendering for real-time 3D photorealistic virtual worlds

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Imaging
– Mobile phone cameras 1 billion mobile phones sold each year beginning 2006 400 million camera phones sold in 2006 700+ million camera phones sold by 2009 – Personal Cameras 100 million compact digital cameras sold by 2009 6 million high-resolution DSLR cameras sold by 2009 – Surveillance / Medical / Automobile / PCs A dozen cameras on each city block or building entrance? A dozen digital cameras in every automobile? A camera in every PC: 100 million per year
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Mobile revolution
– 3 billion mobile phone users / 1 billion PC users – 1.6 billion 3G mobile subscribers by 2012 – iPhones, Treos, Blackberries are not phones or PDAs – They are teleputers – mobile computers – Google saw huge traffic spike from iPhones on Christmas Day 2007 – Mobile Internet is now real – Amazon Kindle – We can now consume and produce rich content anywhere, anytime, not just at our desktop or laptop – More people connected more of the time – New data traffic patterns
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Mobile Health
• Phone is most personal device • BAN – Body Area Network • Remote diagnostics, monitoring, presence,
reminders, family updates

• ECG, apnea, coumadin • Replace many large devices with small

sensors, phone, and cloud – “diagnostics as a service”
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IPv6
– IPv4 is 32-bit 4 billion unique addresses Network Address Translation Payload up to 64 KB – IPv6 is 128-bit 3.4 x 1038 unique addresses or 340 billion billion billion billion Payload up to 4 GB “jumbograms” – Every person, device, product, object, place, and virtual space can have thousands of addresses – Connect everything to the Net

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All things digital
annual worldwide digital information created, captured, and replicated (though not necessarily stored or transmitted)

• 161 exabytes in 2006 • 988 exabytes in 2010 (est.)
source: “The Expanding Digital Universe.” IDC. March 2007.
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Beyond Moore’s Law
3D Chips – the ultimate “system on several chips” – chip stacking with deep vias and a million contacts per sq. cm. eliminates the bottleneck of pins – staying “on-chip” boosts memory bandwidth by several orders of magnitude Integrated optical devices – implantation of thousands of lasers and photodetectors in silicon – direct optical bandwidth from chip to chip and across the Net Neuromorphic Analog – biological basis for more powerful and ubiquitous sensors that feed ever more information back into the network Hard Disk Miracle…. – 2x Moore’s law – $500 bought 100 megabytes in 1991…today $178 buys a terabyte drive… disk storage has thus advanced by a factor of 10,000+ in 17 years – Continues with new Hybrid Disk storage, Ovonic Memory, and “Racetrack Memory”…
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LAN’s End
Trusted Computing – Eliminates firewalled LANs and infuriating virus software and passwords – Allows all local traffic, storage, and apps seamlessly to flood the Internet Dark Web – John Chambers of Cisco writes that unconnected, firewalled, quarantined data of the Dark Web could be 500 times the size of the existing Internet Network Computing / Web Services – Googleplex paradigm of centralized computing – applications move from the PC to “the cloud” – Hosted real-time applications will require robust connections of 25 Mbps+
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LAN’s End
Peer to Peer –File sharing – music, tv, home videos, podcasts –Some have claimed BitTorrent accounts for one-third of Internet traffic. This estimate is too high, but BitTorrent and its competitors are a major factor. –Applications like Microsoft’s Photosynth, which reach out, gather, and synthesize data and content from across the Web Remote Backup –2 billion PCs –50 GB per PC (in the near future) –100 exabytes
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Adding up the bytes
Summing these trends, circa 2015 in the U.S., we project Movie downloads and P2P………………..….100 exabytes Video calling and virtual windows…………...400 exabytes “Cloud computing” and remote backup……....50 exabytes Net video, gaming, and virtual worlds……......200 exabytes Non-Internet “IPTV”……………………….100+ exabytes Business IP traffic…………………………….100 exabytes Other (phone, Web, e-mail, photos, music)…....50 exabytes Total…………………………1,000 exabytes = 1 zettabyte

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Zettabyte by 2015?

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• • • • • •

Broadband Ups & Downs
late 1990s dot-coms were built upon expectation of real broadband complex hyper-regulation from FCC and 51 state PUCs stopped broadband in its tracks helped cause telecom & tech crash of 2000-02 U.S. fell way behind Asia and Europe U.S. began relaxing or eliminating harmful rules from 2003 to 2006 Now broadband buildout – and innovative applications and services – are booming
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Broadband Case Study
Broadcast.com vs. YouTube
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#15 Is U.S. broadband really that bad?
• U.S. did fall way behind rest of world –
America’s 1 Mbps vs. Korea’s 50 Mbps

• George Gilder and I were among the first • But now U.S. is rapidly catching up – and
even surpassing other nations

to note this trend in The Wall Street Journal and GTR

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Policy Cycle

Late 1990s

• • • • • • • •

“Open access” – UNE-P Price controls – TELRIC state-by-state micromanagement Cable much less regulated . . . and thus more successful . . . gained 2/3 of broadband market

mid-2000s 2003 Triennial Review frees fiber and begins reform 2005 Brand-X case makes all broadband an information service 2006 brings FCC confirmation of broadband deregulation . . . plus important state-level reforms
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The cloud is not magic It’s routers and switches It takes a machine to move exadigits

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Net Neutrality
• • • • •
Assumes we’ve got all the bandwidth we need and won’t need anymore – “carve up the existing capacity, rather than create more” Mandates technical details and prohibits existing routing features and Net architectures Allows only certain business plans / outlaws others Creates a new platform to regulate every part of the Internet – potentially much worse than late-90s regulation In this dynamic time we need to encourage:

• •

broadband investment experimentation with Net architectures and business plans
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The Net’s great virtue was decentralization But Kevin from on high decreed concentration of power and decisions over all peers Substitute bureaucrats for Net engineers

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• Internet . . . • U.S. traffic ~ 20 exabytes • World traffic ~ 60 exabytes • Digital storage . . . 1 terabyte = $177.99 • iPod memory . . . 4 GB = $25 • Biology . . . $0.001 per DNA base pair • China . . . GDP ~ $3.6 trillion • World economy . . . GWP ~ $55 trillion
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2008

• Internet . . . • U.S. traffic ~ 48 terabytes • World traffic ~ 48 terabytes • Digital storage . . . 1 terabyte ~ $5,000,000 • “iPod memory” . . . 4 GB ~ $500,000 • Biology . . . $10 per DNA base pair • China . . . GDP ~ $328 billion . . . like
Greece or Denmark today

1992

• World economy . . . GWP = $20.4 trillion
. . . like US+Germany+Japan today
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2018
• Internet . . . • U.S. Net ~ 3 zettabytes • World Net ~ 10 zettabytes • Digital storage . . . 10 petabytes ~ $177.99 • iPod memory . . . 85 years’ worth of video • Biology . . . $0.000001 per DNA base pair • China . . . GDP ~ $9.4 trillion • World economy . . . GWP ~ $80 trillion
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2024
• Internet . . . pervasive real-time
laptop photorealistic 3D holographic virtual worlds

• Digital storage . . . All TV and radio on your • Biology . . . One genome for $100 + a full
MRI body-scan for free!

• China . . . GDP ~ $16 trillion • World economy . . . GWP ~ $100 trillion
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1989
• • • • •
the “most powerful computer ever!” 20 MHz 2 MB RAM for “only” $8499.00 ($15,000 in 2008 dollars, or €10.000) “monitor and mouse not included”
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Miracle though the Net may be The global telecosm is not free
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How big?
• In 2015, the U.S., Europe, and Asia therefore
could each transmit the equivalent of 2 Libraries of Congress every second for the entire year.

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Zettaflood, anyone?

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see “Estimating the Exaflood” and other Center for Global Innovation publications at www.pff.org/cgi/publications.html
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