Professional Documents
Culture Documents
10 18
Minnesota
Ultra High-Speed Broadband Task Force
October.24.08
Bret Swanson
Center for Global Innovation
The Progress & Freedom Foundation | pff.org
bret.swanson@gmail.com
1
Internet’s Three Phases
• Phase One – Arpanet in 1969
mega = 10 6
giga = 10 9
tera = 10 12
peta = 10 15
exa = 10 18
zetta = 10 21
3
What is an exabyte?
• The Library of Congress holds about 20
million big books
• Each book is about 1 megabyte
• The Library of Congress is thus 20
terabytes
• One exabyte is 50,000 Libraries of
Congress
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5
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YouTube
– 50 petabytes per month as of mid-2007
– 600 petabytes per year
– ~7% of U.S. Internet traffic
– all original broadcast and cable TV and radio
content adds up to ~100 petabytes per year
– YouTube streams that much data in 2 months
– YouTube receives 13 hours of video every minute
= 18,720 hours of new video each day
– a HI-DEF YouTube would mean 12 exabytes per
year, or equal to the entire U.S. Internet of 2007
– YouTube and competitors still in their infancy
7
Video conferencing
–MSN Messenger Video Calling in mid-2007
generated 4 petabytes per month = to the
entire Net in 1997
–Cisco’s new Telepresence requires 15 Mbps
symmetrical bandwidth
–A one-hour conference call = 13.5
gigabytes
–Just 75 of these calls would equal the
entire Internet of 1990
–30 exabytes of telephone traffic each year
–move to video-phones would mean 400
exabytes – at least – in the U.S., or 10x the
size of the existing world Internet
8
Home video /
motion pictures
– 10 exabytes of home video each year
– conversion to HD would mean 100 exabytes per
year, or 3x today’s annual world Internet traffic
– one HD movie is ~10 GB
– Amazon, Netflix, Blockbuster, Apple all in the movie
download business
– So are cable companies and telcos, CinemaNow,
MovieLink, etc.
– With HD, NetFlix today would ship 5.8 exabytes of
DVDs each year
– American HD movie downloads could generate 100
exabytes per year, or 3x today’s world Internet
9
IPTV
– Telcos and possibly cablecos moving to IPTV
– Remains to be seen just what portion of content will
actually traverse the Net
– Regardless, last mile bandwidth must expand 10-100x to
meet new IPTV challenges
– Joost and competitors deliver free TV over the Net – 350
megabytes per hour – Mike Volpi of Cisco is CEO
– Single-cast and multi-cast generates many times the traffic
of broadcast
– NBC streamed 50 million of its TV shows in October
2007
– NBC Universal and News Corp. launched premium Hulu
with their considerable TV and film resources
10
3D / Home theater
– Today’s HD video requires between 8 and 18 Mbps,
depending on the codec
– Next generation 3D video will require between 50 and
100 Mbps
– HP Labs’ “IMAX at Home” – 4,096 x 2,304 pixels or 16 x
9 ft. image – 250 GB for two-hour movie (uncompressed)
– Ultra High Def (UHDTV) – circa 2016 – 7,680 x 4,320
33 megapixels @ 60 fps, or 16-32x the pixels/sec of
HDTV
Uncompressed two-hour movie ~ 25 terabytes
MPEG4 two-hour movie ~ 360 gigabytes
– So all the HD numbers get multiplied by another 10x,
which is 100x more than standard def video
– 100 exabytes of HD video becomes a zettabyte of 3D
11
Online games /
Virtual Worlds
– Graphics chips from Nvidia and ATI make 3D
gaming and virtual worlds a possibility for first time
12
40 hours vs. Right Now
photorealistic 3D ... rendered in real-time
http://www.amd.com/us-en/assets/content_type/DigitalMedia/AMD_Ruby_S04.swf
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LightStage
• Real-life image capture and rendering for real-time 3D photorealistic virtual worlds
14
Imaging
– Mobile phone cameras
1 billion mobile phones sold each year beginning 2006
400 million camera phones sold in 2006
700+ million camera phones sold by 2009
– Personal Cameras
100 million compact digital cameras sold by 2009
6 million high-resolution DSLR cameras sold by 2009
– Surveillance / Medical / Automobile / PCs
A dozen cameras on each city block or building
entrance?
A dozen digital cameras in every automobile?
A camera in every PC: 100 million per year
15
Mobile revolution
– 3 billion mobile phone users / 1 billion PC users
– 1.6 billion 3G mobile subscribers by 2012
– iPhones, Treos, Blackberries are not phones or PDAs
– They are teleputers – mobile computers
– Google saw huge traffic spike from iPhones on Christmas
Day 2007
– Mobile Internet is now real
– Amazon Kindle
– We can now consume and produce rich content
anywhere, anytime, not just at our desktop or laptop
– More people connected more of the time – New data
traffic patterns
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Mobile Health
• Phone is most personal device
• BAN – Body Area Network
• Remote diagnostics, monitoring, presence,
reminders, family updates
• ECG, apnea, coumadin
• Replace many large devices with small
sensors, phone, and cloud – “diagnostics as
a service”
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IPv6
– IPv4 is 32-bit
4 billion unique addresses
Network Address Translation
Payload up to 64 KB
– IPv6 is 128-bit
3.4 x 1038 unique addresses
or 340 billion billion billion billion
Payload up to 4 GB “jumbograms”
– Every person, device, product, object, place, and virtual
space can have thousands of addresses
– Connect everything to the Net
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All things digital
annual worldwide digital information created, captured,
and replicated (though not necessarily stored or
transmitted)
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Beyond Moore’s Law
3D Chips
– the ultimate “system on several chips”
– chip stacking with deep vias and a million contacts per sq. cm. eliminates the
bottleneck of pins
– staying “on-chip” boosts memory bandwidth by several orders of magnitude
Neuromorphic Analog
– biological basis for more powerful and ubiquitous sensors that feed ever
more information back into the network
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LAN’s End
Trusted Computing
– Eliminates firewalled LANs and infuriating virus
software and passwords
– Allows all local traffic, storage, and apps seamlessly
to flood the Internet
Dark Web
– John Chambers of Cisco writes that unconnected,
firewalled, quarantined data of the Dark Web could
be 500 times the size of the existing Internet
Remote Backup
–2 billion PCs
–50 GB per PC (in the near future)
–100 exabytes
23
Adding up the bytes
Summing these trends, circa 2015 in the U.S., we project
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Zettabyte by 2015?
25
Broadband Ups &
Downs
• late 1990s dot-coms were built upon expectation
of real broadband
Broadcast.com
vs.
YouTube
27
#15
Is U.S. broadband really
that bad?
• U.S. did fall way behind rest of world –
America’s 1 Mbps vs. Korea’s 50 Mbps
• George Gilder and I were among the first
to note this trend in The Wall Street Journal
and GTR
• But now U.S. is rapidly catching up – and
even surpassing other nations
28
Policy Cycle
• Late 1990s
• state-by-state micromanagement
• mid-2000s
32
Net Neutrality
• Assumes we’ve got all the bandwidth we need and won’t
need anymore – “carve up the existing capacity, rather than
create more”
• broadband investment
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The Net’s great virtue was decentralization
34
2008
• Internet . . .
• U.S. traffic ~ 20 exabytes
• World traffic ~ 60 exabytes
• Digital storage . . . 1 terabyte = $177.99
• iPod memory . . . 4 GB = $25
• Biology . . . $0.001 per DNA base pair
• China . . . GDP ~ $3.6 trillion
• World economy . . . GWP ~ $55 trillion
35
• Internet . . .
1992
• U.S. traffic ~ 48 terabytes
• World traffic ~ 48 terabytes
• Digital storage . . . 1 terabyte ~ $5,000,000
• “iPod memory” . . . 4 GB ~ $500,000
• Biology . . . $10 per DNA base pair
• China . . . GDP ~ $328 billion . . . like
Greece or Denmark today
• World economy . . . GWP = $20.4 trillion
. . . like US+Germany+Japan today
36
2018
• Internet . . .
• U.S. Net ~ 3 zettabytes
• World Net ~ 10 zettabytes
• Digital storage . . . 10 petabytes ~ $177.99
• iPod memory . . . 85 years’ worth of video
• Biology . . . $0.000001 per DNA base pair
• China . . . GDP ~ $9.4 trillion
• World economy . . . GWP ~ $80 trillion 37
2024
• Internet . . . pervasive real-time
photorealistic 3D holographic virtual
worlds
• Digital storage . . . All TV and radio on your
laptop
• Biology . . . One genome for $100 + a full
MRI body-scan for free!
• China . . . GDP ~ $16 trillion
• World economy . . . GWP ~ $100 trillion
38
1989
• the “most powerful
computer ever!”
• 20 MHz
• 2 MB RAM
39
Miracle though the Net
may be
40
How big?
41
Zettaflood, anyone?
10 21
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