uaLa Analysls for 1om's MusLangs

Aprll 2010
CM333Ŵ Applled Managerlal SLaLlsLlcs

1he execuLlve summary
1hls shorL paper ls a summary of Lhe daLa l recelved from 1om relaLed Lo asklng prlces of used MusLangs
ln Lhe areaŦ l revlewed Lhe daLa ln scaLLer ploL graphs and by runnlng regresslon analysls Lo see lf Lhere ls
a correlaLlon ln asklng prlce and color and age of MusLangsŦ 8ased on Lhe daLa l was able Lo see a
correlaLlon of hlgher asklng prlce beLweenţ age of carţ and lf Lhe model ls a converLlble or C1 LypeŦ l'd
suggesL Lo 1om Lo use Lhese caLegorles when prlclng hls MusLangsŦ 8elow ls more deLall along wlLh Lhe
graphs and analysls l compleLedŦ As sLaLed ln Lhe concluslonţ l suggesLed LhaL more daLa should be
collecLed so 1om could prlce hls MusLangs more relevanL Lo Lhose ln Lhe areaŦ

lnLroducLlon
1om has recenLly opened a used car loLŦ AlLhough he has very llLLle buslness experlenceţ hls passlon has
always been for vlnLage auLomobllesŦ 1om has been collecLlng and repalrlng old cars slnce he was a
Leenager and has loLs of Lechnlcal knowledge abouL carbureLorsţ shock absorbersţ alr condlLlonersţ and
so forLhŦ 1om has declded Lo Lurn hls hobby lnLo a moneyŴmaklng venLure for hlmselfŦ unforLunaLelyţ
1om knows almosL noLhlng abouL adverLlslngţ Laxesţ soclal securlLy paymenLs for hls employeesţ
bookkeeplngţ or oLher aspecLs of Lhe buslness of selllng carsŦ lor Lhls reasonţ 1om ls Laklng a few
buslness courses aL Lhe local communlLy collegeŦ (bowermandţ CƌConnellţ !ŦbŦCrrlsţ Ǝ Murphreeţ 2010)
8ackground on Lhe problem
1he car loL has been open for a few monLhs and several of 1om's cusLomers have Lold hlm LhaL hls
asklng prlces are way ouL of llne wlLh Lhe resL of Lhe markeLŸsomeLlmes Loo hlgh and someLlmes Loo
lowţ buL never close Lo Lhe golng raLeŦ 1om Lyplcally relles on a guL feellng for deLermlnlng asklng prlcesŦ
lor lnsLanceţ all else Lhe sameţ he Lhlnks LhaL red cars appear sporLler and can be sold aL a premlumŦ Pe
knows LhaL older cars sell for lessţ buL he doesn'L know exacLly how much lessŦ ApparenLlyţ Lhls lnformal
scheme ls noL worklng very wellŦ
PypoLheses
1he prlce of a musLang ls dependenL on several facLors such as lf Lhe musLang ls a converLlble or C1
modelţ Lhe age of Lhe carţ Lhe color of Lhe carţ lf Lhe musLang has alr condlLlonlngţ Lhe number of
cyllnders ln Lhe englneţ lf lL's an auLomaLlc or manual Lransmlsslonţ how many prevlous owners and Lhe
mlles on Lhe odomeLerŦ 1om has a Lheory LhaL red cars appear sporLler and can be sold aL a premlumţ
and he knows LhaL older cars sell for lessŦ l wlll work wlLh Lhe daLa he has collecLed Lo analyze lf color ls a
facLor and lf red cars sell for moreţ along wlLh LesLlng lf older cars sell for lessŦ llnally slnce 1om needs
and ldea of whaL a good selllng prlce would be for hls carsţ l'll do an analysls based on Lhe daLa he's
collecLed Lo glve hlm an ldea of a good selllng prlce based on Lhe characLerlsLlcs of Lhe carŦ

naLure of Lhe daLa
1o more Lhoroughly undersLand Lhls lssueţ 1om has secreLly vlslLed a compeLlLor's loLţ buL Lhere are so
many physlcal characLerlsLlcs of a car LhaL he ls havlng Lrouble plnpolnLlng a useful prlclng schemeŦ
llndlng perfecL maLches for hls cars ls nearly lmposslble glven all of Lhe posslble opLlons on carsŦ
(bowermandţ CƌConnellţ !ŦbŦCrrlsţ Ǝ Murphreeţ 2010) 1om has hlred me Lo perform a sLaLlsLlcal analysls
of asklng prlces for used MusLangsŦ 1om has already collecLed lnformaLlon from Lhe local newspapers
and oLher sourcesŦ 1om has provlded me wlLh over 33 used MusLangs and 10 dlfferenL characLerlsLlcsŦ
Analysls and meLhods secLlon
l flrsL wanLed Lo look lnLo 1om's clalm LhaL 8ed MusLangs sell for more Lhan oLher colored musLangsŦ 1o
do Lhls l flrsL performed a scaLLerŴploL on Lhe caLegory color ln relaLlon Lo Lhe asklng prlceŦ Craph #1
shows Lhe scaLLerŴploL graphŦ When l added Lhe Lrend llne lL shows LhaL Lhere ls no real correlaLlon
beLween Lhe asklng prlce of Lhe car and Lhe colorţ buL Lo be sure a llnear regresslon analysls can be
performed on Lhe daLaseL regardlng color as seen ln llgure #1 of Lhe appendlxŦ 1he proporLlon of Lhe
LoLal varlaLlon ls explalned by 0Ŧ01363 (r2)ţ and Lhe sLrengLh of a poslLlve llnear relaLlonshlp ls 0Ŧ12308
(r) whlch lndlcaLes Lhere ls noL a sLrong poslLlve llnear relaLlonshlpţ slnce Lhe closer Lhe number ls Lo 1
Lhe hlgher Lhe correlaLlonŦ 1he oLher lndlcaLor would be Lhe lŴLesL Ǝ ÞŴvalueţ Lhe pŴvalue lndlcaLes lf lL's
a slgnlflcanL conLrlbuLor Lo Lhe asklng prlce Lhe closer lL ls Lo zeroţ and Lhe lŴLesL ls used Lo LesL
slgnlflcance of llnear regresslon and Lhe hlgher Lhe number Lhe sLronger Lhe correlaLlonŦ ln Lhls case Lhe
l LesL ls 0Ŧ32 whlch ls low and Lhe ÞŴvalue ls 0Ŧ474 whlch ls hlgh compared Lo zeroŦ 1hls suggesLs LhaL
elLher more daLa ls needed or LhaL 1om's LhoughL LhaL Lhe color of a 8ed car carrles a hlgher asklng prlce
ls noL provenŦ 1he daLa suggesL LhaL color ls noL a Lrue lndlcaLor of asklng prlceŦ
1he 2nd Lhlng 1om was confldenL ln ls LhaL older cars have a lower asklng prlceŦ l wlll run a scaLLerŴploL
and regresslon analysls on Lhe caLegory of age and asklng prlce slmllar Lo whaL l dld for color Lo LesL
1om's LheoryŦ llgure # 2 ln Lhe appendlx shows Lhe analysls and graphŦ 1he scaLLerŴploL lndlcaLes by Lhe
Lrend llne LhaL 1om ls rlghLţ Lhe lower Lhe age of Lhe car Lhe hlgher he can seL Lhe asklng prlceţ Lo
conflrm LhaL Lhe regresslon analysls lndlcaLes a sLrong correlaLlon beLween Lhe 2 varlables by Lhe l LesL
of 68Ŧ2Ŧ llnally l revlewed Lhe 3 facLors LhaL seemed Lo have Lhe mosL lmpacL on asklng prlce for
MusLangsţ ageţ model C1 or converLlble Lhls covers 93Ʒ of Lhe daLa and has a hlgh l value whlch
lndlcaLes a sLrong correlaLlon beLween Lhe asklng prlce and Lhe 3 caLegorlesŦ
Concluslon
1he analysls based on a sample of 33 cars may be Loo small buL lL does provlde a slgnlflcanL amounL of
daLa Lo conclude LhaL Lhe color of Lhe car ls noL a varlable ln Lhe asklng prlceţ and LhaL Lhe age of Lhe car
ls a facLor on Lhe asklng prlceŦ l also found LhaL Lhe converLlble and C1 models seem Lo be slgnlflcanL ln
Lhe asklng prlceŦ l'd suggesL LhaL furLher daLa be collecLed and analyzed Lo ensure 1om's asklng prlces
are ln llne wlLh oLher dealers ln Lhe areaţ buL Lo sLarL 1om should use Lhe daLa l have provlded as a good
sLarL for havlng selllng prlces LhaL are relevanL Lo Lhe areaŦ l'd also suggesL LhaL 1om uses Lhe 3
characLerlsLlcs of Model CL or converLlble and age as Lhe ma[or deLermlnaLlon on hls asklng prlce for
MusLangsŦ
8lbllography
bowermandţ 8Ŧţ CƌConnellţ 8Ŧ 1Ŧţ !ŦbŦCrrlsţ Ǝ Murphreeţ LŦ SŦ (2010)Ŧ LssenLlals of 8uslness SLaLlsLlcsŦ Mc
CrawŴPlll lrwlnŦ
Appendlx
llgure # 1 | | | | | | |
8egresslon Analysls for CCLC8 | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| r² | 0Ŧ016 | n | 33 | | |
| r | 0Ŧ123 | k | 1 | | |
| SLdŦ Lrror | 3810Ŧ211 | uepŦ varŦ | Þ8lCL | | |
| | | | | | |
AnCvA Lable | | | | | |
Source | SS | df | MS | l | pŴvalue | |
8egresslon | 7ţ614ţ378 | 1 | 7ţ614ţ378Ŧ4173 | 0Ŧ32 | Ŧ4740 | |
8esldual | 479ţ084ţ371 | 33 | 14ţ317ţ708Ŧ2139 | | | |
1oLal | 486ţ698ţ930 | 34 | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
8egresslon ouLpuL | | | | confldence lnLerval |
varlables | coefflclenLs | sLdŦ error | L (dfƹ33) | pŴvalue | 90Ʒ lower | 90Ʒ
upper |
lnLercepL | 7ţ098 | 1ţ644 | 4Ŧ317 | Ŧ00014 | 4ţ316 |
9ţ881 |
CCLC8 | 231 | 319 | 0Ŧ724 | Ŧ4740 | (309) | 771
|
| | | | | | | |
| | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
| | 0Ŧ016 | n | 33 | | | |
| | 0Ŧ123 | k | 1 | | | |
|
| | 3810Ŧ211 | uepŦ varŦ | Þ8lCL | | | |
| | | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| | df | MS | l | pŴvalue | | |
| | 1 | 7ţ614ţ378Ŧ4173 | 0Ŧ32 | Ŧ4740 | | |
| | 33 | 14ţ317ţ708Ŧ2139 | | | | |
| | 34 | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
| | | | confldence lnLerval | |
| | sLdŦ error | L (dfƹ33) | pŴvalue | 90Ʒ lower | 90Ʒ upper |
|
| | 1ţ644 | 4Ŧ317 | Ŧ00014 | 4ţ316 | 9ţ881 |
|
llgure # 2 | | | | | | | |
8egresslon Analysls for ACL | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
| r² | 0Ŧ674 | n | 33 | | | |
| r | Ŵ0Ŧ821 | k | 1 | | | |
| SLdŦ Lrror | 2193Ŧ014 | uepŦ varŦ | Þ8lCL | | | |
| | | | | | | |
AnCvA Lable | | | | | | |
Source | SS | df | MS | l | pŴvalue | | |
8egresslon | 327ţ991ţ630 | 1 | 327ţ991ţ630 | 68Ŧ20 | 1Ŧ33LŴ09 |
| |
8esldual | 138ţ707ţ299 | 33 | 4ţ809ţ312 | | | |
|
1oLal | 486ţ698ţ930 | 34 | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
8egresslon ouLpuL | | | | confldence lnLerval | |
varlables | coefflclenLs | sLdŦ error | L (dfƹ33) | pŴvalue | 90Ʒ lower | 90Ʒ
upper | |
lnLercepL | 13ţ727 | 766 | 17Ŧ927 | 1Ŧ41LŴ18 | 12ţ431 |
13ţ023 | |
ACL | (1ţ393) | 169 | Ŵ8Ŧ238 | 1Ŧ33LŴ09 | (1ţ679) | (1ţ108)
| |
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llgure # 3 8egresslon Analysls | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| 8² | 0Ŧ932 | | | | |
| Ad[usLed 8² | 0Ŧ923 | n | 33 | | |
| 8 | 0Ŧ963 | k | 3 | | |
| SLdŦ Lrror | 1033Ŧ778 | uepŦ varŦ | Þ8lCL | | |
| | | | | | |
AnCvA Lable | | | | | | |
Source | SS | df | MS | l | pŴvalue | |
8egresslon | 433ţ369ţ373 | 3 | 131ţ189ţ791 | 141Ŧ47 | 3Ŧ38LŴ18
| |
8esldual | 33ţ129ţ377 | 31 | 1ţ068ţ696 | | | |
1oLal | 486ţ698ţ930 | 34 | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
8egresslon ouLpuL | | | | confldence lnLerval |
varlables | coefflclenLs | sLdŦ error | L (dfƹ31) | pŴvalue | 90Ʒ lower | 90Ʒ
upper |
lnLercepL | 11ţ316Ŧ27 | 414Ŧ97 | 27Ŧ732 | 1Ŧ86LŴ23 | 10ţ812Ŧ68
| 12ţ219Ŧ86 |
CCnvL81 | 3ţ162Ŧ33 | 389Ŧ07 | 8Ŧ128 | 3Ŧ32LŴ09 | 2ţ302Ŧ68
| 3ţ822Ŧ02 |
ACL | (1ţ333Ŧ40) | 79Ŧ72 | Ŵ16Ŧ726 | 4Ŧ33LŴ17 | (1ţ468Ŧ36) |
(1ţ198Ŧ23) |
C1 | 2ţ879Ŧ64 | 363Ŧ66 | 7Ŧ918 | 6Ŧ13LŴ09 | 2ţ263Ŧ04 |
3ţ496Ŧ24 |
| | 319 | 0Ŧ724 | Ŧ4740 | (309) | 771 | |
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