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2011 NEW ZEALAND GENERAL ELECTION

ANALYSIS OF RESULTS BY ELECTORATE,
AREA AND REGION

DECEMBER 2011

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

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CONTENTS
CONTENTS ....................................................................................................................................................... 2
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................... 3
2011 OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS ............................................................................................................ 4
OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS CHANGES 2008 TO 2011 .......................................................................... 5
2011 PARTY VOTE BY REGION ...................................................................................................................... 6
2011 PARTY VOTE BY AREA .......................................................................................................................... 7
PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2008 – 2011 BY REGION ......................................................................................... 8
PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2008 – 2011 BY AREA .............................................................................................. 8
NATIONAL 2011 PARTY VOTE ........................................................................................................................ 9
NATIONAL 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ............................................................................................ 10
NATIONAL 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE .......................................................................................................... 11
NATIONAL 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE ................................................................................ 12
NATIONAL PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11 ............................................................................................. 13
NATIONAL PARTY VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 08 TO 11 ........................................................................... 14
NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11 ................................................................................. 15
NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 08 TO 11 ................................................................ 16
NATIONAL 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE .................................................................................. 17
NATIONAL 2011 ELECTORATE MARGINS ................................................................................................... 18
2011 ELECTORATE MAJORITIES ................................................................................................................. 19
LABOUR 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ............................................................................................... 20
LABOUR 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE ................................................................................... 21
LABOUR 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE ..................................................................................... 22
LABOUR 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE/LAB + GREEN PARTY VOTE ............................................................ 23
LABOUR PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11................................................................................................. 24
LABOUR ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11 .................................................................................... 25
GREENS 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ............................................................................................... 26
GREEN PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11.................................................................................................... 27
NZ FIRST 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE .............................................................................................. 28
NZ FIRST PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11 ................................................................................................ 29
CONSERVATIVE 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE .................................................................................. 30
MAORI PARTY 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ..................................................................................... 31
MAORI PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11..................................................................................................... 32
MANA PARTY 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ...................................................................................... 33
ACT 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ....................................................................................................... 34
ACT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11 ........................................................................................................ 35
UNITED FUTURE 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ................................................................................. 36
UNITED FUTURE PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11 .................................................................................. 37
RIGHT 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (National/ACT/United Future) ................................................... 38
CENTRE 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (Conservative/Maori) ............................................................ 39
LEFT 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (Labour/Greens/NZ First/Mana) .................................................. 40
RIGHT – LEFT 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ..................................................................................... 41
RIGHT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11 ..................................................................................................... 42
LEFT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11........................................................................................................ 43
2011 VALID (PARTY) VOTERS ...................................................................................................................... 44

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

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INTRODUCTION

This document shows results for National, Labour, Greens, NZ First, Conservatives, Maori Party, Mana Party
and ACT for the country, by region and area and for each of the 70 electorates. Generally each page has
the electorates ranked in order from “best” to “worst” for that particular criterion.
Electorates have been grouped into the five National Party Regions (plus a “Maori” Region) and also have
been grouped into Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Provincial, and Rural areas so results can be
compared for these groupings.
Parties have also been grouped together for bloc analysis. The following definitions have been used:
R = Right = National + ACT + United Future
C = Centre = Conservatives + Maori Party
L = Left = Labour + Greens + NZ First + Mana (+ Progressive for 2008)
R – L = Gap between votes for the right and the left parties
Right parties are those who committed to a National-led Government.
Centre parties are those who said they could support either National or Labour, and were not ruled out be
either.
Left parties are those who generally would not support a National-led Government.
Note different definitions were used in my 2008 analysis, based on the different stances at the time. However
in this document the above definitions have been used for both 2011 and 2008 so that any comparisons are
valid.
Inquiries or requests for further information are welcome.

David Farrar
11 December 2011

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

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2011 OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS
Party

Party
Votes

% of all
Party
Votes

% of
effective
party
vote

Seat
Entitlement

Electorate
Seats

List
Seats

Total
Seats

National
Labour
Greens
NZ First
Maori
Mana
ACT
United Future
SUB-TOTAL
Conservative
Legalise
Cannabis
Democrats
Libertarianz
Alliance
TOTAL

1,058,638
614,936
247,370
147,544
31,932
24,168
23,889
13,443
2,191,105
59,236
11,738

47.31%
27.48%
11.06%
6.59%
1.43%
1.08%
1.07%
0.60%
96.62%
2.65%
0.52%

48.97%
28.44%
11.44%
6.82%
1.48%
1.12%
1.10%
0.62%
100.00%

59
34
14
8
2
1
1
1
120

41
23
0
0
3
1
1
1
70

18
11
14
8
0
0
0
0
51

59
34
14
8
3
1
1
1
121

1,714
1,595
1,209
2,344,566

0.08%
0.07%
0.05%
100.00%

Right
Centre
Left

1,095,970
91,168
1,034,018

46.75%
3.89%
44.10%

163,160

6.96%

R–L

The four parliamentary parties of the left (Labour, Greens, NZ First and Mana) got 44.1%. The three of the
right (National, ACT, United) got 46.7% and the two (incl. Conservatives who are not in Parliament) of the
centre (Conservatives and Maori) got 3.9%.
The wasted vote was 3.4% down from 6.6% in 2008. Conservatives were the highest of the parties that did
not make it.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

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OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS CHANGES 2008 TO 2011
Party

Party
Vote
Change
%

2011
Party
Vote %

2008
Party
Vote %

Electorate
Vote
Change %

2011
Electorate
Vote %

2008
Electorate
Vote %

National
Labour
Greens
NZ First
Maori
Mana
ACT
United Future
Progressive
SUB-TOTAL
Conservatives
Others
TOTAL

+2.38%
-6.51%
+4.34%
+2.52%
-0.96%
+1.08%
-2.58%
-0.21%
-0.91%
-0.85%
+2.65%
-1.75%

47.31%
27.48%
11.06%
6.59%
1.43%
1.08%
1.07%
0.60%

44.93%
33.99%
6.72%
4.07%
2.39%

+0.71%
-0.10%
+1.53%
+0.15%
-1.53%
+1.37%
-1.56%
-0.26%
-1.13%
-0.82%
+2.38%
-1.53%

47.31%
35.12%
7.16%
1.84%
1.81%
1.37%
1.43%
0.87%

46.60%
35.22%
5.63%
1.69%
3.34%

Right
Centre
Left
R–L

3.65%
0.87%
0.91%
97.53%

96.62%
2.65%
0.73%
100.00%

2.48%
100.00%

-0.47%
+1.69%
-0.52%

48.98%
4.08%
46.21%

49.45%
2.39%
45.69%

-0.99%

2.77%

3.76%

2.99%
1.13%
1.13%
97.73%

96.91%
2.38%
0.73%
100.00%

2.26%
100.00%

-1.11%
0.85%
1.82%

49.61%
4.19%
45.49%

50.72%
3.34%
43.67%

-2.93%

4.12%

7.05%

The gap between right and left narrowed by almost 1%. This was mainly due to the drop in support for ACT
and increase in support for NZ First. The centre vote grew due to the Conservatives.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

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2011 PARTY VOTE BY REGION
Party

Northern

CNI

LNI

C/W

Southern

Maori

National
Labour
Greens
NZ First
Maori
Mana
ACT
United Future

49.8%
28.7%
9.4%
5.9%
0.6%
0.4%
1.4%
0.4%

54.0%
20.3%
9.2%
9.3%
0.7%
0.4%
1.2%
0.7%

45.4%
29.4%
13.3%
5.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.9%
0.8%

51.0%
25.1%
12.9%
5.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.8%
0.8%

48.4%
26.9%
13.0%
6.0%
0.4%
0.2%
1.1%
0.7%

8.6%
41.0%
10.3%
9.5%
15.6%
13.0%
0.2%
0.1%

Conservatives

2.8%

3.5%

2.6%

2.6%

2.2%

0.5%

51.6%
3.4%
44.5%

56.0%
4.2%
39.2%

47.1%
3.3%
49.0%

52.6%
3.0%
43.7%

50.2%
2.6%
46.1%

8.9%
16.1%
73.8%

7.1%

16.8%

-1.8%

8.8%

4.1%

-64.9%

Right
Centre
Left
R–L

The above figures are on the boundaries of the five National Party Regions. The seven Maori seats are
treated as a de facto sixth Region to allow a cleaner comparison from Region to Region.
National got over 50% in the CNI and C/W Regions. LNI was the lowest Region at 45.4%
LNI Region is the best area for Labour at 29.4% followed by Northern at 28.7%. They are weakest in CNI at
20.3%.
NZ First was strongest in CNI Region at 9.3% and the Maori seats at 9.5%.
Maori and Mana parties were at or below 1% everywhere except the Maori seats where they got 15.6% and
13.0% of the party votes respectively
ACT support is higher in Northern with 1.4%.
Support for the Greens was best in LNI at 13.3%.
United Future was lowest in Northern.
Conservatives did best in the CNI Region.
The gap between National and Labour for each Region was:
Northern +21.1%
CNI +33.7%
LNI +16.0%
C/W +25.8%
Southern +21.5%

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

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2011 PARTY VOTE BY AREA
Party

Auckland

Wgtn

Chch

Provincial

Rural

Maori

National
Labour
Greens
NZ First
Maori
Mana
ACT
United Future

49.1%
30.4%
9.4%
5.4%
0.6%
0.4%
1.3%
0.4%

41.1%
32.1%
17.2%
4.7%
0.6%
0.4%
0.8%
0.9%

49.4%
26.7%
13.7%
5.3%
0.4%
0.2%
0.7%
0.6%

48.3%
26.8%
10.9%
7.6%
0.6%
0.3%
1.0%
0.7%

56.2%
18.8%
9.9%
7.7%
0.5%
0.3%
1.3%
0.8%

8.6%
41.0%
10.3%
9.5%
15.6%
13.0%
0.2%
0.1%

Conservatives

2.5%

1.6%

2.2%

2.9%

3.7%

0.5%

50.7%
3.1%
45.6%

42.8%
2.3%
54.3%

50.7%
2.6%
45.9%

50.0%
3.5%
45.7%

58.3%
4.2%
36.7%

8.9%
16.1%
73.8%

5.2%

-11.5%

4.8%

4.3%

21.6%

-64.9%

Right
Centre
Left
R–L




Auckland is defined as the 20 seats in greater Auckland stretching from Rodney in the North to Papakura
in the South.
Wellington is the six seats South of and including Mana and Rimutaka.
Christchurch is the six seats wholly or mainly in Christchurch including Waimakariri and Port Hills.
Provincial are those 17 seats which have more than 50% of their population in minor cities such as
Nelson, New Plymouth, Dunedin, Hamilton, Napier etc.
Rural are the 14 seats where less than 50% of the population live in a city.

Labour is strongest in Wellington at 32.1% and weakest in rural NZ at 18.8%
National is lowest in Wellington at 41.1% and highest in rural NZ at 56.2%.
NZ First does very well in provincial and rural NZ and worst in Wellington, the only area they got under 5%.
ACT is strongest in Auckland and rural NZ.
Greens are very high in Wellington at 17.2%.
United Future also strongest in Wellington.
Conservatives did best in rural NZ.
The gap between National and Labour for each area was:
Auckland +18.6%
Wellington +9.0%
Christchurch +22.7%
Provincial +21.5%
Rural +37.4%

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

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PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2008 – 2011 BY REGION
Party

Northern

CNI

LNI

C/W

Southern

Maori

National
Labour
Greens
NZ First
Maori
Mana
ACT
United Future

+0.7%
-3.1%
+3.8%
+2.4%
-0.1%
+0.4%
-3.6%
-0.4%

+1.4%
-7.0%
+3.7%
+3.4%
-0.3%
+0.4%
-2.6%
-0.2%

+2.6%
-7.3%
+4.7%
+2.2%
-0.2%
+0.3%
-2.3%
-0.3%

+6.0%
-9.6%
+4.6%
+2.1%
-0.1%
+0.2%
-2.0%
-0.2%

+3.8%
-9.4%
+5.1%
+2.4%
-0.1%
+0.2%
-1.8%
-0.1%

+1.1%
-9.1%
+6.4%
+3.4%
-13.3%
+13.0%
-0.3%
-0.0%

Conservatives

+2.8%

+3.5%

+2.6%

+2.6%

+2.2%

+0.5%

Right
Centre
Left

-3.3%
+2.7%
+2.8%

-1.4%
+3.2%
-0.1%

-0.1%
+2.4%
-1.0%

+3.8%
+2.4%
-4.5%

+1.9%
+2.1%
-2.7%

+0.8%
-12.8%
13.4%

R–L

-6.2%

-1.4%

+0.9%

+8.3%

+4.6%

-12.5%

National had the biggest increases in C/W.
Labour’s biggest declines were in C/W and Southern Regions.
The Greens picked up most support in LNI and Southern.
In terms of the gap between right and left, Northern had it close by 6.2% while at the other end it grew by
8.3% in C/W.

PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2008 – 2011 BY AREA
Party

Auckland

Wgtn

Chch

Provincial

Rural

Maori

National
Labour
Greens
NZ First
Maori
Mana
ACT
United Future

+0.7%
-2.5%
+3.7%
+2.2%
-0.1%
+0.4%
-3.6%
0.4%

+3.1%
-7.5%
+5.4%
+1.9%
-0.2%
+0.4%
-2.1%
0.9%

+7.3%
-10.3%
+4.9%
+2.1%
-0.2%
+0.2%
-1.8%
0.6%

+2.4%
-8.0%
+4.4%
+2.9%
-0.2%
+0.3%
-2.1%
0.7%

+2.2%
-7.2%
+3.8%
+2.7%
-0.2%
+0.3%
-2.9%
0.8%

+1.1%
-9.1%
+6.4%
+3.4%
-13.3%
+13.0%
-0.3%
0.1%

Conservatives

+2.5%

+1.6%

+2.2%

+2.9%

+3.7%

+0.5%

-3.36%
+2.4%
+3.2%

+0.6%
+1.4%
-0.5%

+5.1%
+2.1%
-5.6%

+0.1%
+2.7%
-1.2%

-0.7%
+3.5%
-1.2%

+0.8%
-12.8%
13.4%

-6.5%

+1.1%

+10.7%

+1.3%

+0.5%

-12.5%

Right
Centre
Left
R–L

National gained the most in Christchurch – 7.3% followed by 3.1% in Wellington, 2.4% in provincial NZ and
2.2% in rural NZ. Auckland had the least gain at 0.7%.
Labour lost the most in Christchurch – a large 10.3%. They lost the least support in Auckland – only 2.5%.
Greens did best in Wellington with a 5.4% increase in their vote, plus 6.1% up in Maori seats.
The right-left margin increased by 10.7% in Christchurch and shrank by 6.5% in Auckland.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

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NATIONAL 2011 PARTY VOTE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Tamaki
Rodney
Epsom
Helensville
North Shore
Selwyn
Hunua
Waitaki
East Coast Bays
Bay of Plenty
Waimakariri
Pakuranga
Clutha Southland
Ilam
Tauranga
Rangitata
Taupo
Kaikoura
Waikato
Ohariu
Taranaki-King Country
New Plymouth
Wairarapa
Coromandel
Tukituki
Botany
Otaki
Whangarei
Northcote
Rangitikei
Hamilton East
Papakura
Napier
Northland
Rotorua

24,338
23,967
23,725
23,558
23,113
23,086
22,161
21,309
21,079
20,853
20,489
20,471
20,020
19,934
19,858
19,282
19,003
18,909
18,875
18,764
18,759
18,073
18,046
18,021
17,935
17,749
17,609
17,486
17,263
17,115
17,085
16,640
16,538
16,381
16,159

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Invercargill
Nelson
West Coast Tasman
Rimutaka
Hamilton West
Whanganui
Wellington Central
East Coast
Maungakiekie
Palmerston North
Port Hills
Auckland Central
Wigram
Dunedin South
Mana
Hutt South
Christchurch East
New Lynn
Mt Roskill
Te Atatu
Waitakere
Christchurch Central
Rongotai
Mt Albert
Dunedin North
Manurewa
Manukau East
Mangere
Te Tai Tonga
Te Tai Tokerau
Tamaki Makaurau
Hauraki-Waikato
Te Tai Hauauru
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Waiariki

16,140
16,016
15,462
15,364
15,300
15,151
15,128
14,804
14,747
14,577
14,532
14,447
14,357
14,163
13,754
13,510
13,252
13,211
12,781
12,701
12,534
12,507
12,168
12,102
9,707
6,606
5,287
3,592
2,631
1,814
1,569
1,491
1,421
1,091
1,068

Tamaki had the highest absolute party vote for National at 24,338 with Rodney second on 23,967.
In total 13 electorates got a party vote over 20,000 – the same as 2008.
42 seats got a party vote over 15,000 and 59 seats had a party vote over 10,000.
The median electorate was Rotorua on 16,159 votes and the worst electorates after the Maori seats were
Mangere and Manukau East.
The number of electors who vote in each electorate can vary by over 10,000 so generally the percentage
National got is seen as a more useful comparison.
th

West Coast-Tasman in 38 place had the highest party vote of the seats we contested (excluding Epsom
th
and Ohariu) but did not win. Conversely Auckland Central in 47 place had the lowest party vote of the
seats National did win.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

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NATIONAL 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Helensville
Epsom
Tamaki
Clutha Southland
East Coast Bays
Pakuranga
Selwyn
Hunua
North Shore
Rodney
Botany
Taranaki-King Country
Waikato
Ilam
Bay of Plenty
Waimakariri
Taupo
Kaikoura
Waitaki
Tauranga
Rangitikei
Rangitata
New Plymouth
Papakura
Tukituki
Northcote
Coromandel
Wairarapa
Hamilton East
Rotorua
Whangarei
Northland
Invercargill
East Coast
Ohariu

65.8%
64.5%
64.4%
62.9%
62.9%
62.8%
62.6%
62.6%
62.2%
62.2%
61.1%
60.4%
60.0%
58.3%
57.6%
56.9%
56.3%
55.4%
55.3%
54.2%
53.9%
53.7%
53.3%
52.6%
52.6%
52.3%
52.1%
51.5%
51.4%
51.3%
50.7%
50.1%
49.9%
49.8%
49.6%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Napier
Hamilton West
Whanganui
Otaki
Christchurch East
West Coast Tasman
Nelson
Rimutaka
Christchurch Central
Wigram
Palmerston North
Port Hills
Maungakiekie
Auckland Central
Te Atatu
Hutt South
Waitakere
Dunedin South
Mana
Mt Roskill
New Lynn
Wellington Central
Mt Albert
Rongotai
Dunedin North
Manurewa
Manukau East
Te Tai Tonga
Mangere
Te Tai Tokerau
Tamaki Makaurau
Hauraki-Waikato
Te Tai Hauauru
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Waiariki

48.8%
47.7%
47.6%
46.8%
46.1%
45.8%
45.4%
44.7%
44.6%
44.5%
44.1%
43.7%
43.6%
42.2%
41.2%
41.0%
40.3%
40.2%
40.0%
39.5%
39.2%
38.4%
36.7%
33.0%
32.4%
26.1%
19.6%
14.9%
14.4%
9.2%
8.4%
8.3%
7.8%
6.0%
5.7%

On a percentage basis Helensville had the best party vote for National at 65.8% followed by Epsom and
Tamaki.
13 electorates (up from six in 2008) got over 60% party vote, and 32 electorates got over 50% party vote. 51
electorates got over 40% party vote.
th

Christchurch East in 40 place was the highest polling seat of those National did not win but contested.
th
Auckland Central in 49 place had the lowest party vote percentage of the seats National did win.
The median electorate is Ohariu on 49.6%.
Apart from the Maori seats Mangere, Manukau East and Manurewa were worse for National on 14.4%,
19.6% and 26.1%.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 11 -

NATIONAL 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32

Helensville
Selwyn
Tamaki
Bay of Plenty
Waitaki
North Shore
Hunua
Tauranga
Clutha Southland
East Coast Bays
Taupo
Taranaki-King Country
Pakuranga
Rodney
Ilam
Whangarei
Kaikoura
Waikato
Rangitata
Tukituki
Otaki
Northcote
Coromandel
Hamilton East
Nelson
Rangitikei
Northland
Papakura
Wairarapa
Botany
New Plymouth
Napier

26,011
24,963
24,837
23,710
23,219
22,709
22,563
21,971
21,375
21,094
20,934
20,842
20,694
20,253
20,070
20,049
19,961
19,817
19,580
19,378
19,151
18,908
18,571
18,505
18,360
18,284
18,188
18,096
17,881
17,780
17,644
17,337

33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63

Invercargill
Rotorua
Waimakariri
Whanganui
Hamilton West
Maungakiekie
Auckland Central
Mana
East Coast
Rimutaka
Epsom
Waitakere
Palmerston North
West Coast Tasman
Dunedin South
Port Hills
Wigram
Wellington Central
Christchurch Central
New Lynn
Hutt South
Mt Roskill
Te Atatu
Christchurch East
Dunedin North
Rongotai
Mt Albert
Ohariu
Manurewa
Manukau East
Mangere

17,275
17,188
16,787
16,743
16,587
16,189
15,038
14,093
14,003
13,885
13,574
13,457
13,240
13,214
12,669
12,640
12,580
12,460
12,064
11,809
11,003
10,635
10,444
10,225
9,487
9,132
8,695
6,907
6,351
3,561
3,018

No surprise that Helensville had the highest electorate vote for National at 26,011 with Selwyn and Tamaki
following.
16 (was 25 in 2008) National MPs managed attracted over 20,000 votes.
The median electorate was Napier on 17,337 votes and the worst electorates (Maori seats were not
contested) were Mangere and Manukau East.
The number of electors who vote in each electorate can vary by over 10,000 so generally the percentage
National got is seen as a more useful comparison.
th

Mana in 40 place had the highest electorate vote of the seats National contested but did not win.
st
Conversely East Coast in 41 place had the lowest electorate vote of the seats National did win.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 12 -

NATIONAL 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32

Helensville
Taranaki-King Country
Selwyn
Clutha Southland
Tamaki
Bay of Plenty
Pakuranga
Hunua
East Coast Bays
Waikato
Botany
Taupo
North Shore
Waitaki
Tauranga
Ilam
Kaikoura
Papakura
Whangarei
Rangitikei
Northcote
Tukituki
Northland
Hamilton East
Rotorua
Rangitata
Coromandel
Invercargill
Whanganui
Rodney
New Plymouth
Hamilton West

74.4%
69.6%
69.1%
68.8%
67.7%
67.5%
65.9%
65.6%
65.0%
64.9%
64.0%
63.7%
62.4%
61.4%
61.4%
60.4%
60.2%
59.6%
59.2%
58.9%
58.5%
58.4%
57.5%
57.1%
56.2%
55.8%
55.0%
54.6%
53.7%
53.5%
53.3%
53.3%

33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63

Nelson
Wairarapa
Napier
Otaki
Maungakiekie
East Coast
Waimakariri
Auckland Central
Waitakere
Christchurch Central
Mana
Rimutaka
Palmerston North
Wigram
West Coast Tasman
Port Hills
Epsom
Dunedin South
Christchurch East
New Lynn
Te Atatu
Hutt South
Mt Roskill
Wellington Central
Dunedin North
Mt Albert
Manurewa
Rongotai
Ohariu
Manukau East
Mangere

53.1%
52.6%
52.1%
51.6%
49.9%
48.3%
47.3%
45.4%
44.7%
44.5%
42.0%
41.7%
41.1%
40.3%
39.9%
38.9%
37.8%
36.8%
36.5%
36.2%
35.4%
34.3%
33.9%
32.5%
32.4%
27.5%
26.9%
25.4%
18.6%
14.2%
12.6%

Helensville is the only National seat with over 70% of the vote – 74.4%. Following that are Taranaki-King Country and
Selwyn.
17 seats (up two) had electorate votes of over 60% and 36 seats had an absolute majority of over 50%.
st

Waitakere on 44.7% in 41 place had the highest electorate vote percentage of any seat which National did not win.
th
Auckland Central in 40 place had the lowest percentage on 45.4% of a seat National did win.
National’s electorate vote percentage was lowest in Mangere, Manukau East, Ohariu and Rongotai.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 13 -

NATIONAL PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Christchurch
East
Selwyn
Waimakariri
Christchurch
Central
Wigram
Port Hills
Dunedin
South
Ilam
Rangitata
Tamaki
North Shore
Rimutaka
Waitaki
Te Tai Tonga
Kaikoura
Palmerston
North
Ohariu
Mana
Hutt South
Rodney
Pakuranga
Dunedin
North
Clutha
Southland
Wellington
Central
Nelson
Wairarapa
New
Plymouth
Taupo
Waikato
Tukituki
Invercargill
Auckland
Central
East Coast
Helensville
Otaki
Hunua

Change

2011

2008

10.4%
7.7%
7.5%

46.1%
62.6%
56.9%

35.7%
54.9%
49.4%

7.0%
6.6%
6.0%

44.6%
44.5%
43.7%

37.6%
37.9%
37.7%

6.0%
5.5%
5.1%
4.2%
4.1%
4.1%
3.9%
3.8%
3.6%

40.2%
58.3%
53.7%
64.4%
62.2%
44.7%
55.3%
14.9%
55.4%

34.2%
52.8%
48.6%
60.2%
58.1%
40.7%
51.4%
11.1%
51.8%

3.5%
3.3%
3.3%
3.2%
3.2%
3.1%

44.1%
49.6%
40.0%
41.0%
62.2%
62.8%

40.7%
46.3%
36.7%
37.8%
59.0%
59.7%

3.0%

32.4%

29.4%

3.0%

62.9%

59.9%

3.0%
3.0%
2.9%

38.4%
45.4%
51.5%

35.4%
42.5%
48.7%

2.8%
2.7%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%

53.3%
56.3%
60.0%
52.6%
49.9%

50.5%
53.6%
57.4%
50.2%
47.5%

2.2%
2.1%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%

42.2%
49.8%
65.8%
46.8%
62.6%

40.1%
47.6%
63.7%
44.8%
60.6%

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Epsom
Hamilton East
Northcote
Hamilton
West
West Coast
Tasman
Rongotai
Napier
Rangitikei
East Coast
Bays
Whanganui
Te Tai
Hauauru
Papakura
HaurakiWaikato
IkaroaRawhiti
Maungakiekie
Mt Albert
Tamaki
Makaurau
Rotorua
Taranaki-King
Country
Whangarei
Coromandel
Waiariki
Tauranga
Botany
Te Tai
Tokerau
Te Atatu
New Lynn
Waitakere
Bay of Plenty
Northland
Mangere
Mt Roskill
Manurewa
Manukau
East

1.9%
1.9%
1.9%

64.5%
51.4%
52.3%

62.6%
49.5%
50.4%

1.8%

47.7%

46.0%

1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%

45.8%
33.0%
48.8%
53.9%

44.1%
31.4%
47.3%
52.4%

1.5%
1.3%

62.9%
47.6%

61.4%
46.3%

1.2%
1.1%

7.8%
52.6%

6.6%
51.5%

1.1%

8.3%

7.2%

1.1%
1.1%
1.0%

6.0%
43.6%
36.7%

4.9%
42.5%
35.7%

1.0%
0.9%

8.4%
51.3%

7.4%
50.3%

0.9%
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
-0.1%
-0.1%

60.4%
50.7%
52.1%
5.7%
54.2%
61.1%

59.5%
50.0%
51.7%
5.5%
54.3%
61.2%

-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.9%
-0.9%
-1.1%
-1.6%
-2.1%
-2.6%
-4.2%

9.2%
41.2%
39.2%
40.3%
57.6%
50.1%
14.4%
39.5%
26.1%

9.3%
41.5%
40.1%
41.2%
58.7%
51.7%
16.4%
42.1%
30.3%

-4.6%

19.6%

24.2%

58 of 70 electorate increased the party vote. Chch East had the largest increase at 10.4%, followed by
Selwyn at 7.7%, Waimakariri at 7,5% and Chch Central on 7.0%.
The seat with the largest decreases for National were Manukau East, Manurewa and Mt Roskill.
Nine seats had an increase of 5% or more, and 35 seats an increase of 2% or more.
The median electorate was Otaki with an 2.0% increase.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 14 -

NATIONAL PARTY VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 08 TO 11
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

Te Tai Tonga
Christchurch
East
IkaroaRawhiti
Te Tai
Hauauru
Christchurch
Central
Wigram
Dunedin
South
Port Hills
HaurakiWaikato
Waimakariri
Selwyn
Tamaki
Makaurau
Rangitata
Ilam
Dunedin
North
Rimutaka
Mana
Wellington
Central
Palmerston
North
Hutt South
Waitaki
Ohariu
North Shore
Tamaki
Nelson
Kaikoura
Wairarapa
New
Plymouth
Auckland
Central
Rodney
Pakuranga
Rongotai
Taupo
Clutha

Change
33.9%

2011
14.9%

2008
11.1%

29.1%

46.1%

35.7%

23.0%

6.0%

4.9%

35
36
37
38
39

18.9%

7.8%

6.6%

40

18.8%
17.5%

44.6%
44.5%

37.6%
37.9%

41

17.5%
15.9%

40.2%
43.7%

34.2%
37.7%

15.6%
15.1%
14.1%

8.3%
56.9%
62.6%

7.2%
49.4%
54.9%

13.4%
10.5%
10.4%

8.4%
53.7%
58.3%

7.4%
48.6%
52.8%

10.4%
10.1%
9.0%

32.4%
44.7%
40.0%

29.4%
40.7%
36.7%

8.5%

38.4%

35.4%

8.5%
8.5%
7.6%
7.2%
7.1%
7.0%
7.0%
6.9%
5.9%

44.1%
41.0%
55.3%
49.6%
62.2%
64.4%
45.4%
55.4%
51.5%

40.7%
37.8%
51.4%
46.3%
58.1%
60.2%
42.5%
51.8%
48.7%

5.5%

53.3%

50.5%

5.4%
5.4%
5.2%
5.2%
5.1%
5.1%

42.2%
62.2%
62.8%
33.0%
56.3%
62.9%

40.1%
59.0%
59.7%
31.4%
53.6%
59.9%

42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Southland
Invercargill
Tukituki
East Coast
Otaki
Waikato
West Coast
Tasman
Hamilton
West
Hamilton
East
Northcote
Helensville
Waiariki
Hunua
Napier
Epsom
Mt Albert
Rangitikei
Whanganui
Maungakiekie
East Coast
Bays
Papakura
Rotorua
TaranakiKing Country
Whangarei
Coromandel
Tauranga
Botany
Te Atatu
Bay of Plenty
Te Tai
Tokerau
New Lynn
Waitakere
Northland
Mt Roskill
Mangere
Manurewa
Manukau
East

4.9%
4.7%
4.5%
4.5%
4.4%

49.9%
52.6%
49.8%
46.8%
60.0%

47.5%
50.2%
47.6%
44.8%
57.4%

3.9%

45.8%

44.1%

3.8%

47.7%

46.0%

3.8%
3.7%
3.3%
3.2%
3.2%
3.2%
3.1%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%

51.4%
52.3%
65.8%
5.7%
62.6%
48.8%
64.5%
36.7%
53.9%
47.6%
43.6%

49.5%
50.4%
63.7%
5.5%
60.6%
47.3%
62.6%
35.7%
52.4%
46.3%
42.5%

2.4%
2.2%
1.8%

62.9%
52.6%
51.3%

61.4%
51.5%
50.3%

1.5%
1.3%
0.9%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.8%
-1.8%

60.4%
50.7%
52.1%
54.2%
61.1%
41.2%
57.6%

59.5%
50.0%
51.7%
54.3%
61.2%
41.5%
58.7%

-1.8%
-2.2%
-2.3%
-3.0%
-6.1%
-12.6%
-13.8%

9.2%
39.2%
40.3%
50.1%
39.5%
14.4%
26.1%

9.3%
40.1%
41.2%
51.7%
42.1%
16.4%
30.3%

-18.9%

19.6%

24.2%

The key difference between this table and the previous is the percentage change is not shown as an
absolute shift in the percentage of the party vote, but the relative change as a percentage of the 2005 vote.
As the Maori seats were on such a small base, they top the table. Next is Christchurch East which saw the
party vote increase 29.1% relative to 2008..
The median increase was 4.9% in Invercargill.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 15 -

NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32

Epsom
Wigram
Selwyn
Botany
Mana
East Coast
Bays
Taupo
New Plymouth
Rimutaka
Tauranga
Hamilton West
Maungakiekie
Pakuranga
Waimakariri
Christchurch
Central
Ilam
Otaki
Bay of Plenty
Auckland
Central
Kaikoura
Rotorua
Dunedin South
Tamaki
Port Hills
Dunedin North
Wairarapa
Waikato
Waitaki
Tukituki
Hunua
Taranaki-King
Country
Clutha

Change
16.0%
9.7%
8.7%
7.8%
7.0%

2011
37.8%
40.3%
69.1%
64.0%
42.0%

2008
21.8%
30.7%
60.5%
56.2%
35.0%

6.9%
5.7%
5.1%
4.6%
4.6%
4.5%
4.3%
4.3%
4.2%

65.0%
63.7%
53.3%
41.7%
61.4%
53.3%
49.9%
65.9%
47.3%

58.1%
57.9%
48.2%
37.1%
56.8%
48.8%
45.5%
61.6%
43.0%

3.6%
3.5%
2.9%
2.6%

44.5%
60.4%
51.6%
67.5%

40.9%
56.9%
48.7%
64.9%

2.5%
2.5%
2.3%
2.0%
1.9%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%

45.4%
60.2%
56.2%
36.8%
67.7%
38.9%
32.4%
52.6%
64.9%
61.4%
58.4%
65.6%

42.9%
57.8%
53.9%
34.7%
65.7%
37.1%
30.6%
51.0%
63.4%
60.1%
57.2%
64.4%

1.0%
1.0%

69.6%
68.8%

68.7%
67.9%

33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63

Southland
Helensville
North Shore
Northcote
Christchurch
East
Papakura
Waitakere
Manurewa
Te Atatu
Mt Albert
Mangere
Invercargill
Hamilton East
Northland
Rangitata
Palmerston
North
New Lynn
Whanganui
Mt Roskill
Hutt South
Rongotai
Nelson
East Coast
Manukau East
Wellington
Central
Whangarei
West Coast
Tasman
Rangitikei
Rodney
Napier
Ohariu
Coromandel

0.8%
0.6%
0.6%

74.4%
62.4%
58.5%

73.6%
61.8%
57.9%

0.6%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.8%
-1.3%
-1.3%
-1.4%
-1.5%
-1.6%
-2.1%

36.5%
59.6%
44.7%
26.9%
35.4%
27.5%
12.6%
54.6%
57.1%
57.5%
55.8%

35.9%
59.7%
44.9%
27.1%
36.2%
28.8%
14.0%
56.0%
58.6%
59.1%
57.9%

-2.4%
-2.4%
-2.6%
-2.6%
-2.9%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-4.2%
-4.3%

41.1%
36.2%
53.7%
33.9%
34.3%
25.4%
53.1%
48.3%
14.2%

43.5%
38.7%
56.3%
36.6%
37.2%
28.3%
57.1%
52.5%
18.4%

-5.0%
-5.0%

32.5%
59.2%

37.5%
64.2%

-6.7%
-6.8%
-6.9%
-7.6%
-8.0%
-8.0%

39.9%
58.9%
53.5%
52.1%
18.6%
55.0%

46.5%
65.7%
60.4%
59.7%
26.5%
63.0%

Epsom had the largest electorate vote increase at 16.0% followed by Wigram on 9.7% and Selwyn on 8.7%.
The biggest increase for a seat National did not win after Wigram was Mana at 7.0% and Rimutaka on 4.6%.
National increased the electorate vote % in 36 seats and had it drop in 27 seats.
The median electorate was Clutha-Southland with a 1.0% increase.
The largest drops were in Coromandel and Ohariu at 8.0% each, then Napier, Rodney and Rangitikei.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 16 -

NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 08 TO 11
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32

Epsom
Wigram
Mana
Selwyn
Botany
Rimutaka
East Coast
Bays
New Plymouth
Taupo
Waimakariri
Maungakiekie
Hamilton West
Christchurch
Central
Tauranga
Pakuranga
Ilam
Otaki
Dunedin South
Auckland
Central
Dunedin North
Port Hills
Kaikoura
Rotorua
Bay of Plenty
Wairarapa
Tamaki
Waikato
Waitaki
Tukituki
Hunua
Christchurch
East
Taranaki-King

Change
73.1%
31.5%
19.9%
14.3%
13.9%
12.4%

2011
37.8%
40.3%
42.0%
69.1%
64.0%
41.7%

2008
21.8%
30.7%
35.0%
60.5%
56.2%
37.1%

11.9%
10.6%
9.9%
9.9%
9.5%
9.2%

65.0%
53.3%
63.7%
47.3%
49.9%
53.3%

58.1%
48.2%
57.9%
43.0%
45.5%
48.8%

8.8%
8.1%
6.9%
6.2%
6.0%
5.9%

44.5%
61.4%
65.9%
60.4%
51.6%
36.8%

40.9%
56.8%
61.6%
56.9%
48.7%
34.7%

5.8%
5.6%
4.7%
4.3%
4.2%
4.0%
3.2%
2.9%
2.3%
2.2%
2.2%
1.8%

45.4%
32.4%
38.9%
60.2%
56.2%
67.5%
52.6%
67.7%
64.9%
61.4%
58.4%
65.6%

42.9%
30.6%
37.1%
57.8%
53.9%
64.9%
51.0%
65.7%
63.4%
60.1%
57.2%
64.4%

1.5%
1.4%

36.5%
69.6%

35.9%
68.7%

33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63

Country
Clutha
Southland
Helensville
Northcote
North Shore
Papakura
Waitakere
Manurewa
Te Atatu
Invercargill
Hamilton East
Northland
Rangitata
Whanganui
Mt Albert
Palmerston
North
New Lynn
Nelson
Mt Roskill
Hutt South
Whangarei
East Coast
Mangere
Rangitikei
Rongotai
Rodney
Coromandel
Napier
Wellington
Central
West Coast
Tasman
Manukau East
Ohariu

1.4%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
-0.2%
-0.4%
-0.9%
-2.2%
-2.5%
-2.5%
-2.7%
-3.6%
-4.6%
-4.7%

68.8%
74.4%
58.5%
62.4%
59.6%
44.7%
26.9%
35.4%
54.6%
57.1%
57.5%
55.8%
53.7%
27.5%

67.9%
73.6%
57.9%
61.8%
59.7%
44.9%
27.1%
36.2%
56.0%
58.6%
59.1%
57.9%
56.3%
28.8%

-5.6%
-6.3%
-7.0%
-7.2%
-7.8%
-7.8%
-8.0%
-9.7%
-10.4%
-10.4%
-11.4%
-12.7%
-12.7%

41.1%
36.2%
53.1%
33.9%
34.3%
59.2%
48.3%
12.6%
58.9%
25.4%
53.5%
55.0%
52.1%

43.5%
38.7%
57.1%
36.6%
37.2%
64.2%
52.5%
14.0%
65.7%
28.3%
60.4%
63.0%
59.7%

-13.2%

32.5%

37.5%

-14.3%
-23.1%
-30.0%

39.9%
14.2%
18.6%

46.5%
18.4%
26.5%

The key difference between this table and the previous is the percentage change is not shown as an
absolute shift in the percentage of the party vote, but the relative change as a percentage of the 2005 vote.
Epsom had the largest relative change with a 73% increase, followed by Wigram, Mana and Selwyn.
The median relative increase was TKC with a 1.4% relative increase.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 17 -

NATIONAL 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33

Bay of Plenty
Nelson
Whangarei
Taranaki-King
Country
Northland
Maungakiekie
Papakura
Tauranga
Helensville
Taupo
Whanganui
Northcote
Hamilton West
Hamilton East
Waitaki
Tukituki
Waitakere
Selwyn
Otaki
Rotorua
Clutha Southland
Invercargill
Rangitikei
Kaikoura
Waikato
Auckland Central
Napier
Coromandel
Tamaki
Mana
Pakuranga
Hunua
Botany

EV/PV
117.1%
117.0%
116.8%

EV
67.5%
53.1%
59.2%

PV
57.6%
45.4%
50.7%

115.2%
114.8%
114.4%
113.2%
113.2%
113.1%
113.0%
112.9%
111.9%
111.6%
111.1%
111.1%
111.1%
111.1%
110.4%
110.2%
109.6%
109.4%
109.4%
109.1%
108.7%
108.2%
107.5%
106.8%
105.6%
105.1%
105.0%
104.9%
104.8%
104.7%

69.6%
57.5%
49.9%
59.6%
61.4%
74.4%
63.7%
53.7%
58.5%
53.3%
57.1%
61.4%
58.4%
44.7%
69.1%
51.6%
56.2%
68.8%
54.6%
58.9%
60.2%
64.9%
45.4%
52.1%
55.0%
67.7%
42.0%
65.9%
65.6%
64.0%

60.4%
50.1%
43.6%
52.6%
54.2%
65.8%
56.3%
47.6%
52.3%
47.7%
51.4%
55.3%
52.6%
40.3%
62.6%
46.8%
51.3%
62.9%
49.9%
53.9%
55.4%
60.0%
42.2%
48.8%
52.1%
64.4%
40.0%
62.8%
62.6%
61.1%

34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63

Rangitata
Ilam
East Coast Bays
Manurewa
Wairarapa
North Shore
New Plymouth
Dunedin North
Christchurch
Central
East Coast
Rimutaka
Palmerston
North
New Lynn
Dunedin South
Wigram
Port Hills
Mangere
West Coast
Tasman
Rodney
Te Atatu
Mt Roskill
Wellington
Central
Hutt South
Waimakariri
Christchurch
East
Rongotai
Mt Albert
Manukau East
Epsom
Ohariu

103.9%
103.5%
103.4%
102.8%
102.2%
100.4%
100.1%
99.9%

55.8%
60.4%
65.0%
26.9%
52.6%
62.4%
53.3%
32.4%

53.7%
58.3%
62.9%
26.1%
51.5%
62.2%
53.3%
32.4%

99.8%
97.0%
93.2%

44.5%
48.3%
41.7%

44.6%
49.8%
44.7%

93.2%
92.4%
91.5%
90.5%
89.1%
87.7%

41.1%
36.2%
36.8%
40.3%
38.9%
12.6%

44.1%
39.2%
40.2%
44.5%
43.7%
14.4%

87.0%
86.1%
86.1%
85.9%

39.9%
53.5%
35.4%
33.9%

45.8%
62.2%
41.2%
39.5%

84.6%
83.6%
83.1%

32.5%
34.3%
47.3%

38.4%
41.0%
56.9%

79.2%
76.9%
75.0%
72.2%
58.6%
37.4%

36.5%
25.4%
27.5%
14.2%
37.8%
18.6%

46.1%
33.0%
36.7%
19.6%
64.5%
49.6%

This shows how National did in the electorate vote relative to the party vote in each seat. At 100% it means
the electorate vote was exactly equal to the party vote.
Bay of Plenty just pipped Nelson as the seat where the candidate was most popular relative to the party vote
at 117%. This was followed by Whangarei and TKC at 117% and 115% respectively.
Waitakere was the highest of the general electorate seats National did not win at 111%.
The median seat was Hunua at 104.8%.
The lowest ratio for a seat National did win was Waimakariri at 83.1%.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 18 -

NATIONAL 2011 ELECTORATE MARGINS
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32

Helensville
Selwyn
Tamaki
Bay of Plenty
Tauranga
Hunua
Clutha Southland
North Shore
Taranaki-King Country
Rodney
East Coast Bays
Waikato
Waitaki
Taupo
Pakuranga
Ilam
Coromandel
Whangarei
Kaikoura
Northland
Botany
Papakura
Tukituki
Rangitikei
Northcote
Hamilton East
Rotorua
Wairarapa
Nelson
Rangitata
Invercargill
Otaki

21,066
19,451
17,786
17,760
17,360
16,797
16,168
15,228
15,089
15,083
14,641
14,198
14,143
14,115
13,846
13,312
12,740
12,447
11,445
11,362
10,741
9,890
9,660
9,382
9,379
8,275
7,357
7,135
7,088
6,537
6,263
5,231

33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63

Whanganui
East Coast
Hamilton West
New Plymouth
Napier
Maungakiekie
Auckland Central
Waimakariri
Christchurch Central
Waitakere
Wigram
Mana
Epsom
West Coast Tasman
Port Hills
Palmerston North
Rimutaka
Dunedin North
Dunedin South
Hutt South
New Lynn
Christchurch East
Te Atatu
Wellington Central
Mt Roskill
Ohariu
Manurewa
Rongotai
Mt Albert
Mangere
Manukau East

5,046
4,774
4,418
4,270
3,701
3,021
717
642
45
11
- 1,500
- 2,230
- 2,261
- 2,539
- 3,097
- 3,285
- 3,286
- 3,489
- 4,175
- 4,825
- 5,190
- 5,334
- 5,416
- 6,376
- 7,271
- 7,450
- 8,610
- 9,047
- 10,021
- 15,159
- 15,838

nd

Please note this is the margin between the National Candidate and either the 2 place getter or the person
who won the seat. In some seats National came third or lower so the margin shown here is not necessarily
the margin the seat was won by – that is on another table.
John Key in Helensville has the largest majority at 21,066. In total National won 41 seats and have margins
of over 10,000 in 21 of them and over 5,000 in a further 12. National’s most marginal seat is Christchurch
Central on 45 votes, followed by Waimakariri and Auckland Central.
There are no National held seats with a majority of between 1,000 and 3,000. So there are 33 quite safe
seats, five reasonably safe seats and three distinctly marginal seats.
In three seats the National candidate was more than 10,000 votes behind the winning candidate. In a total of
11 seats the National candidate was more than 5,000 votes behind the winning candidate.
There are five seats (Waitakere, Wigram, Mana, Epsom and WCT) National lost by less than 3.000 votes.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 19 -

2011 ELECTORATE MAJORITIES
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Helensville
Selwyn
Tamaki
Bay of Plenty
Tauranga
Hunua
Clutha Southland
Manukau East
North Shore
Taranaki-King
Country
Rodney
East Coast Bays
Waikato
Waitaki
Taupo
Pakuranga
Ilam
Coromandel
Whangarei
Kaikoura
Northland
Botany
Mt Albert
Papakura
Tukituki
Rangitikei
Northcote
Rongotai
Manurewa
Hamilton East
Rotorua
Mt Roskill
Wairarapa
Mangere
Nelson

Majority
21,066
19,451
17,786
17,760
17,360
16,797
16,168
15,838
15,228

Party
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
LAB
NAT

15,089
15,083
14,641
14,198
14,143
14,115
13,846
13,312
12,740
12,447
11,445
11,362
10,741
10,021
9,890
9,660
9,382
9,379
9,047
8,610
8,275
7,357
7,271
7,135
7,126
7,088

NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
LAB
NAT
NAT
NAT
NAT
LAB
LAB
NAT
NAT
LAB
NAT
LAB
NAT

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Hauraki-Waikato
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Rangitata
Wellington Central
Invercargill
Te Atatu
Christchurch East
Otaki
New Lynn
Whanganui
Hutt South
East Coast
Hamilton West
New Plymouth
Dunedin South
Napier
Dunedin North
Waiariki
Rimutaka
Palmerston North
Te Tai Hauauru
Port Hills
Maungakiekie
West Coast Tasman
Epsom
Mana
Wigram
Te Tai Tonga
Ohariu
Te Tai Tokerau
Tamaki Makaurau
Auckland Central
Waimakariri
Christchurch Central
Waitakere

6,852
6,541
6,537
6,376
6,263
5,416
5,334
5,231
5,190
5,046
4,825
4,774
4,418
4,270
4,175
3,701
3,489
3,296
3,286
3,285
3,221
3,097
3,021
2,539
2,261
2,230
1,500
1,475
1,392
1,165
936
717
642
45
11

LAB
LAB
NAT
LAB
NAT
LAB
LAB
NAT
LAB
NAT
LAB
NAT
NAT
NAT
LAB
NAT
LAB
MAO
LAB
LAB
MAO
LAB
NAT
LAB
ACT
LAB
LAB
LAB
UFNZ
MANA
MAO
NAT
NAT
NAT
LAB

th

National has the top seven majorities. Ross Robertson for Labour in Manukau East is the 8 ,
There are 23 majorities over 10,000 – 21 National, and two Labour.
Of the nine majorities below 2,000 three are National held, three are Labour held, one is Maori Party held
one is Mana held, and one is United held.
The median majority is Nelson on 7,088.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 20 -

LABOUR 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Mangere
Manukau East
Manurewa
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Hauraki-Waikato
Mt Roskill
Te Tai Hauauru
Tamaki Makaurau
Te Atatu
Te Tai Tonga
Mana
Waitakere
Mt Albert
New Lynn
Maungakiekie
Hutt South
Waiariki
Dunedin South
Te Tai Tokerau
Rongotai
Palmerston North
Dunedin North
Rimutaka
Christchurch East
Wigram
Otaki
Christchurch Central
Napier
Hamilton West
Invercargill
Port Hills
Whanganui
Nelson
West Coast Tasman
Papakura
Rangitata

71.8%
66.7%
57.4%
49.6%
46.1%
43.6%
42.0%
41.5%
38.9%
38.5%
37.8%
37.2%
37.1%
37.0%
36.9%
35.7%
35.0%
35.0%
34.7%
34.2%
33.9%
33.8%
33.1%
31.7%
30.6%
29.6%
29.4%
29.3%
29.1%
28.7%
27.6%
27.4%
27.3%
27.2%
27.2%
27.0%

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Wellington Central
Ohariu
New Plymouth
Auckland Central
Northcote
Hamilton East
Botany
Tukituki
East Coast
Waimakariri
Wairarapa
Rotorua
Waitaki
Rangitikei
Whangarei
Taupo
Kaikoura
Ilam
Pakuranga
Coromandel
Northland
Tamaki
East Coast Bays
Waikato
North Shore
Clutha Southland
Selwyn
Hunua
Taranaki-King
Country
Epsom
Tauranga
Helensville
Bay of Plenty
Rodney

26.6%
26.5%
25.8%
25.1%
25.0%
24.7%
24.5%
24.1%
23.9%
23.4%
23.3%
22.0%
21.4%
21.2%
20.3%
20.3%
19.9%
19.2%
18.6%
18.1%
17.6%
17.6%
17.2%
16.4%
16.2%
16.2%
16.1%
16.1%
15.9%
15.5%
15.0%
14.3%
13.7%
13.4%

Mangere had the best party vote for Labour at 71.8% followed by Manukau East.
Labour got over 50% party vote in just three seats, and over 40% in just 8 seats. In 25 seats they got over
30%, and in 29 seats under 25%.
Their median seat was Papakura at 27.2%.
The seat they did best in that National won was Maungakiekie at 36.9%.
th

Wellington Central had the lowest party vote of any seat they won. It was 37 with 26.6%, followed by WCT
and Port Hills.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 21 -

LABOUR 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Manukau East
Mangere
Manurewa
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Mt Albert
Hauraki-Waikato
Mt Roskill
Christchurch East
Te Atatu
New Lynn
Rimutaka
Palmerston North
Rongotai
Hutt South
Wellington Central
Dunedin South
Mana
Port Hills
West Coast Tasman
Waimakariri
Wigram
Waitakere
Christchurch Central
Dunedin North
Auckland Central
Napier
Te Tai Tonga
Maungakiekie
New Plymouth
Hamilton West
Whanganui
Otaki
Rangitata
Te Tai Tokerau
Tamaki Makaurau

77.1%
75.9%
63.3%
60.7%
59.2%
58.4%
57.1%
55.5%
53.8%
52.1%
51.6%
51.3%
50.5%
49.4%
49.1%
48.9%
48.6%
48.4%
47.5%
45.5%
45.1%
44.8%
44.4%
44.3%
43.2%
41.0%
40.6%
40.6%
40.4%
39.1%
37.5%
37.5%
37.1%
37.1%
35.1%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Ohariu
Invercargill
Nelson
Rotorua
East Coast
Wairarapa
Hamilton East
Te Tai Hauauru
Northcote
Tukituki
Rangitikei
Papakura
Kaikoura
Botany
Waiariki
Waitaki
Whangarei
Pakuranga
Northland
Taupo
North Shore
Ilam
East Coast Bays
Taranaki-King Country
Tamaki
Waikato
Coromandel
Bay of Plenty
Clutha Southland
Hunua
Selwyn
Helensville
Rodney
Tauranga
Epsom

34.8%
34.8%
32.6%
32.1%
31.8%
31.6%
31.6%
29.8%
29.5%
29.3%
28.7%
27.0%
25.7%
25.3%
24.5%
24.0%
22.4%
21.8%
21.6%
20.7%
20.6%
20.3%
19.9%
19.2%
19.2%
18.4%
17.3%
16.9%
16.8%
16.8%
15.3%
14.1%
13.7%
13.2%
10.4%

Manukau East had the highest electorate vote for Labour at 77.1% followed by Mangere at 75.9%.
Labour received over 50% of the EV in 13 seats.
Their median seat was Tamaki Makaurau at 35.1%.
Their lowest percentage for a seat which they won was Te Tai Tonga at 40.6%% and then Dunedin North at
44.3%. Conversely their best result in a seat they did not win was Waimakariri at 45.5%.
Their worst seat was Epsom at 10.4% and then Tauranga with the candidate getting under 13.2%. In 21
seats their candidate got under 25%.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 22 -

LABOUR 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

Waimakariri
Wellington
Central
Christchurch
East
Port Hills
West Coast
Tasman
Auckland
Central
Mt Albert
New Plymouth
Rimutaka
Palmerston
North
Christchurch
Central
Rongotai
Wigram
Rotorua
New Lynn
Napier
Dunedin South
Te Atatu
Hutt South
Rangitata
Whanganui
Wairarapa
Rangitikei
Hamilton West
East Coast
Ohariu
Mt Roskill
Dunedin North
Kaikoura
Mana
Hamilton East
North Shore
Otaki
HaurakiWaikato

EV/PV
194.3%

EV
45.5%

PV
23.4%

185.0%

49.1%

26.6%

175.5%
175.2%

55.5%
48.4%

31.7%
27.6%

174.4%

47.5%

27.2%

172.1%
159.6%
156.5%
155.7%

43.2%
59.2%
40.4%
51.6%

25.1%
37.1%
25.8%
33.1%

151.5%

51.3%

33.9%

150.8%
147.8%
147.4%
146.4%
140.9%
140.1%
139.8%
138.3%
138.3%
137.8%
136.8%
135.8%
135.3%
134.1%
133.3%
131.3%
131.1%
130.9%
129.5%
128.7%
127.8%
126.7%
126.7%

44.4%
50.5%
45.1%
32.1%
52.1%
41.0%
48.9%
53.8%
49.4%
37.1%
37.5%
31.6%
28.7%
39.1%
31.8%
34.8%
57.1%
44.3%
25.7%
48.6%
31.6%
20.6%
37.5%

29.4%
34.2%
30.6%
22.0%
37.0%
29.3%
35.0%
38.9%
35.7%
27.0%
27.4%
23.3%
21.2%
29.1%
23.9%
26.5%
43.6%
33.8%
19.9%
37.8%
24.7%
16.2%
29.6%

126.6%

58.4%

46.1%

35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Bay of Plenty
Northland
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Tukituki
Invercargill
Taranaki-King
Country
Waitakere
Nelson
Northcote
Pakuranga
Manukau East
East Coast
Bays
Waitaki
Waikato
Whangarei
Manurewa
Maungakiekie
Tamaki
Te Tai Tokerau
Ilam
Mangere
Te Tai Tonga
Hunua
Botany
Clutha
Southland
Taupo
Rodney
Papakura
Helensville
Coromandel
Selwyn
Tauranga
Tamaki
Makaurau
Te Tai Hauauru
Waiariki
Epsom

123.4%
122.7%
122.5%
121.4%
121.1%

16.9%
21.6%
60.7%
29.3%
34.8%

13.7%
17.6%
49.6%
24.1%
28.7%

120.5%
120.3%
119.4%
117.8%
117.1%
115.6%

19.2%
44.8%
32.6%
29.5%
21.8%
77.1%

15.9%
37.2%
27.3%
25.0%
18.6%
66.7%

115.6%
112.1%
111.9%
110.4%
110.2%
110.1%
109.3%
107.1%
106.1%
105.7%
105.4%
104.0%
103.5%

19.9%
24.0%
18.4%
22.4%
63.3%
40.6%
19.2%
37.1%
20.3%
75.9%
40.6%
16.8%
25.3%

17.2%
21.4%
16.4%
20.3%
57.4%
36.9%
17.6%
34.7%
19.2%
71.8%
38.5%
16.1%
24.5%

103.4%
102.2%
101.8%
99.3%
98.5%
95.8%
94.7%
87.6%

16.8%
20.7%
13.7%
27.0%
14.1%
17.3%
15.3%
13.2%

16.2%
20.3%
13.4%
27.2%
14.3%
18.1%
16.1%
15.0%

84.6%
71.0%
69.9%
67.2%

35.1%
29.8%
24.5%
10.4%

41.5%
42.0%
35.0%
15.5%

This shows how Labour did in the electorate vote relative to the party vote in each seat. At 100% it means
the electorate vote was exactly equal to the party vote.
Waimakariri is the seat where the candidate was most popular relative to the party vote at 194%. This was
followed by Wellington Central and Christchurch East at 185% and 176% respectively.
The median seat was Bay of Plenty at 123.4%.
The lowest ratio was in Epsom at 67% and Waiariki at 70%.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 23 -

LABOUR 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE/LAB + GREEN PARTY VOTE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

Waimakariri
Christchurch
East
Rimutaka
Te Atatu
Palmerston
North
West Coast
Tasman
New Plymouth
Mt Roskill
Manukau East
Mt Albert
Rangitata
New Lynn
Hauraki-Waikato
Rotorua
Napier
Hutt South
Whanganui
Manurewa
Wigram
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Hamilton West
Port Hills
Dunedin South
Mangere
Christchurch
Central
Mana
Otaki
Wairarapa
Invercargill
Waitakere
Rangitikei
East Coast
Wellington
Central
Auckland Central

EV/PV
142.7%

EV
45.5%

PV
31.9%

128.2%
119.7%
116.6%

55.5%
51.6%
53.8%

43.3%
43.1%
46.1%

115.6%

51.3%

44.4%

114.7%
113.9%
112.3%
110.1%
109.1%
106.1%
106.1%
105.7%
105.3%
104.9%
103.6%
103.1%
103.1%
103.1%
103.0%
102.8%
102.5%
100.6%
100.3%

47.5%
40.4%
57.1%
77.1%
59.2%
37.1%
52.1%
58.4%
32.1%
41.0%
49.4%
37.5%
63.3%
45.1%
60.7%
39.1%
48.4%
48.9%
75.9%

41.4%
35.5%
50.9%
70.1%
54.2%
35.0%
49.1%
55.2%
30.5%
39.1%
47.7%
36.4%
61.4%
43.8%
58.9%
38.0%
47.2%
48.6%
75.7%

97.1%
96.2%
95.6%
95.5%
93.7%
93.6%
93.6%
92.3%

44.4%
48.6%
37.5%
31.6%
34.8%
44.8%
28.7%
31.8%

45.7%
50.5%
39.2%
33.1%
37.1%
47.8%
30.6%
34.5%

90.6%
90.2%

49.1%
43.2%

54.3%
47.9%

35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Pakuranga
Botany
Maungakiekie
Tukituki
Rongotai
Hamilton East
Te Tai Tokerau
Ohariu
Kaikoura
Papakura
Northcote
Taranaki-King
Country
East Coast Bays
Waikato
Dunedin North
North Shore
Bay of Plenty
Nelson
Te Tai Tonga
Taupo
Northland
Tamaki
Hunua
Whangarei
Waitaki
Tamaki
Makaurau
Clutha Southland
Rodney
Ilam
Helensville
Coromandel
Te Tai Hauauru
Waiariki
Selwyn
Tauranga
Epsom

87.8%
87.7%
87.5%
86.7%
86.6%
86.3%
85.7%
85.1%
83.1%
82.7%
81.9%

21.8%
25.3%
40.6%
29.3%
50.5%
31.6%
37.1%
34.8%
25.7%
27.0%
29.5%

24.8%
28.9%
46.4%
33.8%
58.4%
36.6%
43.3%
40.9%
30.9%
32.7%
36.0%

79.5%
78.7%
78.5%
77.4%
75.9%
75.6%
75.2%
74.7%
74.5%
73.5%
72.9%
72.9%
72.4%
72.1%

19.2%
19.9%
18.4%
44.3%
20.6%
16.9%
32.6%
40.6%
20.7%
21.6%
19.2%
16.8%
22.4%
24.0%

24.2%
25.3%
23.5%
57.2%
27.1%
22.4%
43.4%
54.3%
27.8%
29.4%
26.4%
23.0%
31.0%
33.3%

68.5%
67.5%
62.4%
62.4%
61.5%
58.8%
56.1%
55.8%
55.4%
55.3%
37.9%

35.1%
16.8%
13.7%
20.3%
14.1%
17.3%
29.8%
24.5%
15.3%
13.2%
10.4%

51.2%
24.9%
21.9%
32.6%
23.0%
29.4%
53.2%
43.9%
27.6%
23.8%
27.6%

In this table we compare the Labour electorate vote to the combined party vote for Labour and Greens. This
removes the impact of Green voters who tactically voted for the Labour candidate to get a better idea of
which Labour candidates attracted support beyond the main left party vote.
Waimakariri is the seat where the candidate was most popular relative to the L/G party vote at 143%. This
was followed by Christchurch East and Rimutaka at 128% and 120% respectively.
In only 24 seats did the Labour candidate get more votes than the combined party vote for Labour and
Greens.
The median seat was Pakuranga at 88%.
The lowest ratio was in Epsom at 38% and Tauranga at 55%.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 24 -

LABOUR PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Mangere
Manukau East
Manurewa
Mt Roskill
Botany
Papakura
Waitakere
Te Atatu
Maungakiekie
New Lynn
Tamaki
Hunua
Pakuranga
Helensville
East Coast Bays
Epsom
Northcote
North Shore
Taranaki-King
Country
Mt Albert
New Plymouth
Hamilton East
Waikato
Mana
West Coast
Tasman
Napier
Rangitikei
Hauraki-Waikato
Bay of Plenty
Hamilton West
Palmerston
North
Ohariu
Hutt South
Rodney
Otaki

Change
10.2%
7.4%
5.2%
1.0%
-0.7%
-2.1%
-2.6%
-2.6%
-2.7%
-3.3%
-3.6%
-3.6%
-3.7%
-4.1%
-4.4%
-4.5%
-4.7%
-5.2%

2011
71.8%
66.7%
57.4%
43.6%
24.5%
27.2%
37.2%
38.9%
36.9%
37.0%
17.6%
16.1%
18.6%
14.3%
17.2%
15.5%
25.0%
16.2%

2008
61.6%
59.3%
52.2%
42.6%
25.2%
29.3%
39.8%
41.5%
39.5%
40.3%
21.2%
19.7%
22.3%
18.5%
21.6%
20.1%
29.7%
21.4%

-5.2%
-5.5%
-5.6%
-6.1%
-6.1%
-6.2%

15.9%
37.1%
25.8%
24.7%
16.4%
37.8%

21.2%
42.6%
31.4%
30.8%
22.6%
43.9%

-6.2%
-6.3%
-6.3%
-6.4%
-6.5%
-6.5%

27.2%
29.3%
21.2%
46.1%
13.7%
29.1%

33.5%
35.6%
27.5%
52.6%
20.2%
35.6%

-6.8%
-6.8%
-7.1%
-7.2%
-7.4%

33.9%
26.5%
35.7%
13.4%
29.6%

40.7%
33.3%
42.8%
20.6%
37.0%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Northland
Tauranga
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Clutha Southland
East Coast
Rangitata
Wairarapa
Coromandel
Tukituki
Wellington
Central
Rotorua
Whanganui
Invercargill
Rimutaka
Tamaki
Makaurau
Whangarei
Ilam
Kaikoura
Rongotai
Te Tai Hauauru
Waitaki
Taupo
Auckland Central
Selwyn
Port Hills
Wigram
Christchurch
Central
Dunedin North
Waimakariri
Nelson
Waiariki
Te Tai Tokerau
Te Tai Tonga
Dunedin South
Christchurch
East

-7.4%
-7.6%
-7.6%
-7.7%
-7.8%
-7.9%
-7.9%
-7.9%
-8.0%

17.6%
15.0%
49.6%
16.2%
23.9%
27.0%
23.3%
18.1%
24.1%

25.0%
22.6%
57.2%
23.9%
31.7%
34.8%
31.2%
26.0%
32.1%

-8.0%
-8.1%
-8.1%
-8.1%
-8.2%

26.6%
22.0%
27.4%
28.7%
33.1%

34.6%
30.0%
35.5%
36.9%
41.3%

-8.2%
-8.3%
-8.3%
-8.3%
-8.5%
-8.6%
-8.7%
-8.9%
-9.4%
-9.5%
-9.5%
-9.6%

41.5%
20.3%
19.2%
19.9%
34.2%
42.0%
21.4%
20.3%
25.1%
16.1%
27.6%
30.6%

49.7%
28.6%
27.5%
28.2%
42.7%
50.7%
30.1%
29.2%
34.6%
25.6%
37.1%
40.2%

-10.0%
-10.4%
-10.5%
-10.5%
-10.5%
-11.0%
-11.1%
-11.8%

29.4%
33.8%
23.4%
27.3%
35.0%
34.7%
38.5%
35.0%

39.4%
44.2%
33.9%
37.8%
45.6%
45.6%
49.6%
46.7%

-13.6%

31.7%

45.3%

Labour lost party vote in 66 of 70 seats. They increased it in Mangere, Manukau East, Manurewa and Mt
Roskill.
Overall 13 seats had a party vote decrease of less than 5%, 34 seats had a decrease of or over 7.5%
The median change was in Otaki on -7.4%
Labour’s largest drops were Christchurch East, Dunedin South and Te Tai Tonga.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 25 -

LABOUR ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33

Wigram
Mangere
Rimutaka
Manukau East
Manurewa
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Tamaki
Makaurau
Te Tai Tokerau
Napier
Wellington
Central
Hauraki-Waikato
Tauranga
Ohariu
Auckland Central
Palmerston
North
Botany
West Coast
Tasman
Christchurch
East
East Coast Bays
Waitakere
New Lynn
Port Hills
Waimakariri
Mt Roskill
Bay of Plenty
Rangitata
Maungakiekie
Christchurch
Central
Te Tai Hauauru
Te Atatu
Pakuranga
Hutt South
Papakura

Change
30.0%
23.5%
12.3%
11.0%
9.3%
9.2%

2011
45.1%
75.9%
51.6%
77.1%
63.3%
60.7%

2008
15.1%
52.4%
39.3%
66.1%
54.0%
51.5%

7.7%
7.7%
7.1%

35.1%
37.1%
41.0%

27.3%
29.4%
33.9%

7.0%
5.9%
5.4%
4.9%
4.7%

49.1%
58.4%
13.2%
34.8%
43.2%

42.2%
52.5%
7.7%
29.9%
38.5%

4.5%
4.3%

51.3%
25.3%

46.8%
21.1%

3.9%

47.5%

43.7%

2.6%
2.1%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.4%
1.3%
0.9%
0.9%
0.7%

55.5%
19.9%
44.8%
52.1%
48.4%
45.5%
57.1%
16.9%
37.1%
40.6%

52.9%
17.8%
42.8%
50.3%
46.7%
44.1%
55.8%
16.1%
36.3%
39.8%

0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
-0.1%

44.4%
29.8%
53.8%
21.8%
49.4%
27.0%

43.8%
29.4%
53.4%
21.6%
49.3%
27.1%

34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Whanganui
Mt Albert
East Coast
Taranaki-King
Country
Hamilton East
Kaikoura
Rangitikei
Wairarapa
Nelson
Whangarei
Hunua
Te Tai Tonga
Northcote
Tamaki
Rongotai
Invercargill
Helensville
Epsom
Dunedin South
North Shore
Ilam
Mana
Waikato
Clutha Southland
Hamilton West
Rodney
Coromandel
Tukituki
Rotorua
Waiariki
New Plymouth
Northland
Otaki
Waitaki
Dunedin North
Selwyn
Taupo

-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.2%

37.5%
59.2%
31.8%

37.6%
59.3%
32.0%

-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.7%
-0.7%
-0.8%
-0.9%
-0.9%
-1.1%
-1.2%
-1.5%
-1.5%
-1.9%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-3.1%
-3.4%
-3.4%
-3.8%
-4.5%
-4.5%
-4.7%
-4.8%
-5.1%
-5.2%
-5.7%
-6.4%
-7.3%
-7.5%
-7.6%
-7.7%
-8.0%
-8.4%
-14.5%
-18.7%

19.2%
31.6%
25.7%
28.7%
31.6%
32.6%
22.4%
16.8%
40.6%
29.5%
19.2%
50.5%
34.8%
14.1%
10.4%
48.9%
20.6%
20.3%
48.6%
18.4%
16.8%
39.1%
13.7%
17.3%
29.3%
32.1%
24.5%
40.4%
21.6%
37.5%
24.0%
44.3%
15.3%
20.7%

19.6%
32.0%
26.4%
29.4%
32.4%
33.5%
23.4%
17.8%
41.8%
31.0%
20.7%
52.4%
36.8%
17.1%
13.6%
52.3%
24.0%
24.1%
53.1%
22.9%
21.5%
43.9%
18.8%
22.5%
35.0%
38.5%
31.8%
47.9%
29.2%
45.2%
32.1%
52.6%
29.8%
39.4%

Labour’s increased the electorate vote in 32 seats. The biggest were Wigram, Mangere, Rimutaka and
Manukau East.
The median change was Mt Albert on -0.1% (from 2008)
Labour lost EV in 38 seats. The biggest drops were 18.7% in Taupo, 14.5% in Selwyn, 8.4% in
Dunedin North and 8.0% in Waitaki.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 26 -

GREENS 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Wellington Central
Rongotai
Dunedin North
Auckland Central
Port Hills
Mt Albert
Christchurch Central
Nelson
Te Tai Tonga
Ohariu
West Coast Tasman
Dunedin South
Ilam
Wigram
Mana
New Lynn
Epsom
Hutt South
Waitaki
Hamilton East
Northland
Christchurch East
Selwyn
Coromandel
Te Tai Hauauru
Kaikoura
Northcote
North Shore
Whangarei
Waitakere
East Coast
Palmerston North
Rimutaka
Wairarapa
Napier

27.7%
24.2%
23.4%
22.8%
19.6%
17.2%
16.3%
16.0%
15.8%
14.4%
14.2%
13.6%
13.4%
13.2%
12.8%
12.2%
12.0%
12.0%
11.9%
11.9%
11.8%
11.7%
11.4%
11.4%
11.2%
11.1%
10.9%
10.9%
10.6%
10.6%
10.6%
10.5%
10.0%
9.8%
9.8%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Tamaki Makaurau
Tukituki
New Plymouth
Otaki
Maungakiekie
Rangitikei
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Hauraki-Waikato
Whanganui
Hamilton West
Waiariki
Tamaki
Tauranga
Bay of Plenty
Clutha Southland
Helensville
Te Tai Tokerau
Rotorua
Waimakariri
Rodney
Invercargill
Taranaki-King Country
East Coast Bays
Rangitata
Taupo
Mt Roskill
Te Atatu
Waikato
Hunua
Pakuranga
Papakura
Botany
Manurewa
Mangere
Manukau East

9.7%
9.7%
9.7%
9.6%
9.5%
9.4%
9.4%
9.1%
9.0%
8.8%
8.8%
8.8%
8.8%
8.7%
8.6%
8.6%
8.6%
8.6%
8.5%
8.5%
8.4%
8.2%
8.1%
8.1%
7.6%
7.3%
7.2%
7.0%
6.9%
6.2%
5.5%
4.4%
3.9%
3.8%
3.4%

The Greens again did exceptionally well in Wellington achieving 27.7% in Wellington Central (beating Labour
in the party vote) and 24.2% in Rongotai. Also above 20% was Dunedin North and Auckland Central.
In nine seats they got over 15%, and in 33 seats, over 10%.
Their median seat was Napier on 9.8%. This is less than their average of 11.1% so their stronger seats
drags them up considerably.
Their worst seats were Manukau East and Mangere. They were below 5% in four seats.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 27 -

GREEN PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Te Tai Tonga
Te Tai Hauauru
Dunedin North
Auckland Central
Rongotai
Wellington
Central
Nelson
Wigram
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Waiariki
Mt Albert
Hauraki-Waikato
Port Hills
Tamaki
Makaurau
Dunedin South
Ohariu
Ilam
Epsom
Te Tai Tokerau
Christchurch
Central
Waitaki
Hamilton East
Whangarei
New Lynn
Christchurch
East
Northland
Mana
Hutt South
Napier
Northcote
East Coast
North Shore
Tauranga
Invercargill
Waitakere

Change
8.6%
7.6%
7.6%
7.3%
7.2%

2011
15.8%
11.2%
23.4%
22.8%
24.2%

2008
7.2%
3.5%
15.8%
15.5%
17.0%

7.1%
6.6%
6.2%
6.2%
6.2%
6.2%
5.9%
5.8%

27.7%
16.0%
13.2%
9.4%
8.8%
17.2%
9.1%
19.6%

20.6%
9.4%
6.9%
3.2%
2.7%
11.0%
3.2%
13.8%

5.7%
5.6%
5.3%
5.2%
5.1%
5.1%

9.7%
13.6%
14.4%
13.4%
12.0%
8.6%

4.0%
8.0%
9.1%
8.2%
6.9%
3.5%

5.1%
4.9%
4.7%
4.6%
4.5%

16.3%
11.9%
11.9%
10.6%
12.2%

11.2%
7.0%
7.2%
6.0%
7.6%

4.5%
4.4%
4.4%
4.3%
4.3%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%

11.7%
11.8%
12.8%
12.0%
9.8%
10.9%
10.6%
10.9%
8.8%
8.4%
10.6%

7.2%
7.3%
8.4%
7.7%
5.5%
6.7%
6.4%
6.6%
4.6%
4.3%
6.5%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Kaikoura
Wairarapa
Maungakiekie
Rimutaka
Rangitikei
Palmerston
North
East Coast Bays
Otaki
Selwyn
Rangitata
Bay of Plenty
Coromandel
Hamilton West
Helensville
Whanganui
Tukituki
Rotorua
Clutha Southland
Hunua
Tamaki
West Coast
Tasman
Rodney
Taranaki-King
Country
Te Atatu
New Plymouth
Waikato
Taupo
Waimakariri
Mt Roskill
Pakuranga
Papakura
Botany
Mangere
Manurewa
Manukau East

4.1%
4.1%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%

11.1%
9.8%
9.5%
10.0%
9.4%

7.0%
5.7%
5.5%
5.9%
5.4%

4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
3.9%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.7%
3.7%
3.6%
3.6%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%

10.5%
8.1%
9.6%
11.4%
8.1%
8.7%
11.4%
8.8%
8.6%
9.0%
9.7%
8.6%
8.6%
6.9%
8.8%

6.5%
4.1%
5.6%
7.5%
4.2%
4.9%
7.6%
5.1%
4.9%
5.3%
6.0%
5.0%
5.1%
3.4%
5.3%

3.3%
3.3%

14.2%
8.5%

10.9%
5.2%

3.3%
3.2%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
2.6%
2.5%
2.0%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%

8.2%
7.2%
9.7%
7.0%
7.6%
8.5%
7.3%
6.2%
5.5%
4.4%
3.8%
3.9%
3.4%

5.0%
4.0%
6.4%
3.9%
4.5%
5.4%
4.3%
3.6%
3.0%
2.4%
2.0%
2.2%
1.8%

The Greens gained support in all 70 seats.
Their biggest increases were two of the Maori seats at and then Dunedin North and Auckland Central.
Overall 20 seats had a party vote increase of over 5%.
The median increase was Waitakere on 4.2%.
The smallest increases were the three South Auckland seats.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 28 -

NZ FIRST 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Tauranga
Bay of Plenty
Coromandel
Waiariki
Rotorua
Tamaki Makaurau
Northland
Te Tai Tokerau
Hauraki-Waikato
Whangarei
Whanganui
Te Tai Tonga
East Coast
Papakura
Taupo
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Otaki
Waikato
Te Tai Hauauru
Wairarapa
Hamilton West
Hunua
Manurewa
Rangitikei
Taranaki-King Country
Dunedin South
Rodney
Invercargill
Te Atatu
Kaikoura
Waitakere
Manukau East
New Plymouth
Christchurch East
Rimutaka

14.9%
12.6%
11.0%
10.9%
10.6%
10.4%
10.2%
9.9%
9.8%
9.7%
9.5%
8.8%
8.5%
8.5%
8.4%
8.3%
8.1%
8.1%
7.9%
7.8%
7.7%
7.4%
7.4%
7.3%
7.3%
7.2%
7.0%
6.8%
6.7%
6.6%
6.5%
6.3%
6.3%
6.3%
6.3%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

New Lynn
Wigram
Hutt South
Waimakariri
Mangere
Tukituki
Rangitata
West Coast Tasman
Dunedin North
Pakuranga
Palmerston North
Northcote
Napier
Nelson
Hamilton East
Waitaki
Maungakiekie
Christchurch Central
East Coast Bays
Clutha Southland
North Shore
Mana
Port Hills
Selwyn
Mt Roskill
Helensville
Mt Albert
Rongotai
Botany
Auckland Central
Ilam
Ohariu
Tamaki
Wellington Central
Epsom

6.2%
6.0%
6.0%
5.9%
5.9%
5.9%
5.8%
5.7%
5.7%
5.7%
5.7%
5.6%
5.6%
5.4%
5.4%
5.2%
5.2%
5.0%
4.9%
4.9%
4.9%
4.8%
4.8%
4.7%
4.7%
4.6%
4.5%
4.4%
4.4%
4.1%
4.0%
3.9%
3.8%
2.9%
2.6%

Seven seats got into double digits for NZ First. In total 53 out of 70 seats had NZ First over the 5% threshold.
Their median seat was Rimutaka at 6.3%.
Their lowest support was in central city seats such as Epsom and Wellington Central – at 2.6% and 2.9%.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 29 -

NZ FIRST PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37

Tauranga
Coromandel
Tamaki
Makaurau
Whanganui
Bay of Plenty
HaurakiWaikato
Rotorua
Northland
Whangarei
Invercargill
Hamilton West
Papakura
Taupo
Te Tai Tonga
Waiariki
Wigram
Hunua
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Waitakere
Manurewa
Waikato
Taranaki-King
Country
Te Tai Hauauru
Tukituki
East Coast
Manukau East
Otaki
New Lynn
Dunedin South
Te Atatu
Mangere
Hutt South
Northcote
Rodney
Te Tai Tokerau
Nelson
Christchurch

Change
4.8%
4.7%

2011
14.9%
11.0%

2008
10.1%
6.3%

4.6%
4.4%
4.4%

10.4%
9.5%
12.6%

5.9%
5.1%
8.3%

4.4%
4.2%
3.8%
3.5%
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%

9.8%
10.6%
10.2%
9.7%
6.8%
7.7%
8.5%
8.4%
8.8%
10.9%
6.0%
7.4%
8.3%
6.5%
7.4%
8.1%

5.5%
6.3%
6.4%
6.2%
3.4%
4.3%
5.1%
5.1%
5.6%
7.8%
3.0%
4.4%
5.4%
3.6%
4.5%
5.3%

2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.3%

7.3%
7.9%
5.9%
8.5%
6.3%
8.1%
6.2%
7.2%
6.7%
5.9%
6.0%
5.6%
7.0%
9.9%
5.4%
6.3%

4.5%
5.2%
3.2%
5.8%
3.7%
5.5%
3.6%
4.6%
4.2%
3.3%
3.5%
3.2%
4.5%
7.4%
3.0%
3.9%

38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

East
Dunedin North
Wairarapa
Botany
New Plymouth
Maungakiekie
Pakuranga
Rangitikei
Rimutaka
East Coast
Bays
Port Hills
Hamilton East
Helensville
Rangitata
Clutha
Southland
Kaikoura
Waimakariri
Rongotai
North Shore
West Coast
Tasman
Napier
Mt Roskill
Mana
Mt Albert
Christchurch
Central
Ohariu
Auckland
Central
Selwyn
Palmerston
North
Waitaki
Ilam
Wellington
Central
Tamaki
Epsom

NZ First gained party vote in all 70 seats.
Their biggest increase was Tauranga and Coromandel.
The median increase was Te Tai Tokerau at 2.4%
Their smallest increase was Epsom at 1.2%.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
2.2%
2.2%
2.2%
2.2%

5.7%
7.8%
4.4%
6.3%
5.2%
5.7%
7.3%
6.3%

3.4%
5.6%
2.1%
4.0%
3.0%
3.5%
5.1%
4.1%

2.1%
2.1%
2.1%
2.1%
2.0%

4.9%
4.8%
5.4%
4.6%
5.8%

2.8%
2.8%
3.3%
2.5%
3.8%

2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%

4.9%
6.6%
5.9%
4.4%
4.9%

2.9%
4.6%
4.0%
2.5%
2.9%

1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%

5.7%
5.6%
4.7%
4.8%
4.5%

3.8%
3.7%
2.8%
3.0%
2.7%

1.8%
1.8%

5.0%
3.9%

3.1%
2.1%

1.8%
1.7%

4.1%
4.7%

2.3%
3.0%

1.6%
1.6%
1.5%

5.7%
5.2%
4.0%

4.0%
3.6%
2.4%

1.3%
1.3%
1.2%

2.9%
3.8%
2.6%

1.5%
2.5%
1.5%

- 30 -

CONSERVATIVE 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Rodney
Northland
Whangarei
Rangitikei
Bay of Plenty
Tauranga
Waikato
Coromandel
Taranaki-King Country
Tukituki
Kaikoura
Wairarapa
East Coast Bays
Hunua
Taupo
Pakuranga
Helensville
Hamilton East
Napier
Waimakariri
Whanganui
Otaki
Hamilton West
West Coast Tasman
Clutha Southland
Papakura
East Coast
Palmerston North
Rotorua
Waitaki
Rimutaka
Te Atatu
Nelson
Botany
New Lynn

6.4%
5.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
3.9%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.5%
3.5%
3.4%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.2%
3.2%
3.2%
3.1%
3.1%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Northcote
Selwyn
Mt Roskill
Waitakere
Rangitata
Wigram
Manurewa
North Shore
Christchurch East
Ilam
Hutt South
Invercargill
New Plymouth
Mana
Christchurch Central
Maungakiekie
Ohariu
Port Hills
Mt Albert
Mangere
Tamaki
Dunedin South
Manukau East
Dunedin North
Epsom
Rongotai
Auckland Central
Wellington Central
Te Tai Tonga
Te Tai Tokerau
Tamaki Makaurau
Hauraki-Waikato
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Te Tai Hauauru
Waiariki

2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.1%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.8%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.1%
1.1%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%

Conservative’s highest party vote was in Rodney where Colin Craig stood – at 6.4%. Northland at 5.2% is
the only other seat in which they broke the 5% threshold.
They got over 3% party vote in 29 seats.
Their median seat was New Lynn on 2.6%.
The Maori seats were their worse seats followed by Wellington Central and Auckland Central.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 31 -

MAORI PARTY 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Waiariki
Te Tai Hauauru
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Tamaki Makaurau
Te Tai Tonga
Hauraki-Waikato
Te Tai Tokerau
Auckland Central
Rotorua
East Coast
Northland
Rangitikei
Tukituki
Whanganui
Wellington Central
Rongotai
Taranaki-King Country
Taupo
Mana
Manurewa
Maungakiekie
Te Atatu
Wairarapa
Whangarei
Napier
New Plymouth
North Shore
Hutt South
Waikato
Epsom
Bay of Plenty
Hamilton West
Hamilton East
Papakura
Otaki

21.2%
21.1%
15.0%
14.4%
13.5%
13.1%
11.2%
1.6%
1.3%
1.1%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Rimutaka
Northcote
Waitakere
Mangere
Ohariu
Hunua
Mt Albert
Helensville
Tamaki
Palmerston North
Invercargill
Ilam
Tauranga
Christchurch Central
Manukau East
Nelson
New Lynn
Wigram
Coromandel
Kaikoura
West Coast Tasman
Clutha Southland
Dunedin North
Port Hills
East Coast Bays
Mt Roskill
Selwyn
Rodney
Waitaki
Rangitata
Pakuranga
Dunedin South
Christchurch East
Botany
Waimakariri

0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%

As expected the Maori Party did best amongst the seven Maori seats. They had considerable variation
though ranging from 21.2% in Waiariki to 11.2% in Te Tai Tokerau.
Their next best seats were Auckland Central and Rotorua on 1.6% and 1.3%. In only 10 seats did they get
over 1%
Their median seat was Otaki on 0.6%.
Their worst seats were Waimakariri, Botany, Chch East and Dunedin South on 0.3%.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 32 -

MAORI PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Auckland Central
Pakuranga
Rangitata
Helensville
Epsom
Clutha Southland
North Shore
Tamaki
East Coast Bays
Hunua
Botany
Ilam
Selwyn
Nelson
Maungakiekie
Tauranga
Invercargill
Northcote
Mt Roskill
Tukituki
Wairarapa
Bay of Plenty
Waimakariri
Rodney
Dunedin South
Wigram
Rangitikei
Kaikoura
Waikato
New Plymouth
Wellington
Central
Waitaki
Napier
Rimutaka
Ohariu
West Coast
Tasman

Change
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%

2011
1.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.8%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.4%
0.8%
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%

2008
0.9%
0.3%
0.3%
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.5%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.9%
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.6%
0.9%
0.6%
0.7%
0.7%

-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%

0.7%
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%

0.9%
0.5%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%

-0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Christchurch
Central
Palmerston
North
Te Atatu
Christchurch
East
Waitakere
Rongotai
Taupo
Hutt South
Mt Albert
New Lynn
Otaki
Dunedin North
Port Hills
Whanganui
Whangarei
Coromandel
Taranaki-King
Country
Papakura
Hamilton East
Mana
East Coast
Mangere
Hamilton West
Rotorua
Manukau East
Manurewa
Northland
Te Tai Tonga
Te Tai Hauauru
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Waiariki
Tamaki
Makaurau
Hauraki-Waikato
Te Tai Tokerau

The Maori Party increased their vote in Auckland Central only.
Their median decrease was Ohariu on -0.2%.
Their biggest decrease was Te Tai Tokerau on -19.6%.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

-0.2%

0.5%

0.7%

-0.2%
-0.2%

0.5%
0.6%

0.7%
0.8%

-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%

0.3%
0.5%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%

0.5%
0.8%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
1.0%
0.9%
0.7%

-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.6%
-0.7%
-8.8%
-9.7%
-11.9%
-14.1%

0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.7%
1.1%
0.5%
0.6%
1.3%
0.5%
0.6%
0.8%
13.5%
21.1%
15.0%
21.2%

1.0%
0.9%
1.0%
1.0%
1.4%
1.0%
1.1%
1.8%
1.0%
1.3%
1.5%
22.3%
30.8%
26.9%
35.3%

-14.2%
-14.6%
-19.6%

14.4%
13.1%
11.2%

28.6%
27.7%
30.8%

- 33 -

MANA PARTY 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Te Tai Tokerau
Waiariki
Tamaki Makaurau
Hauraki-Waikato
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Te Tai Hauauru
Te Tai Tonga
Northland
Rotorua
Mangere
Manukau East
Manurewa
East Coast
Auckland Central
Whangarei
Wellington Central
Dunedin North
Mt Albert
Waitakere
Rongotai
Te Atatu
Papakura
Mana
New Lynn
Taupo
Maungakiekie
Hutt South
Hamilton West
Christchurch Central
Tukituki
Northcote
Port Hills
Waikato
Palmerston North
Tamaki

24.5%
16.6%
13.7%
11.2%
9.6%
8.2%
5.9%
1.3%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

West Coast Tasman
Hamilton East
Taranaki-King Country
Coromandel
Bay of Plenty
Botany
Epsom
Napier
Whanganui
Rimutaka
Christchurch East
Wairarapa
Otaki
New Plymouth
Hunua
Wigram
Mt Roskill
Rangitikei
Invercargill
Ohariu
East Coast Bays
Nelson
Dunedin South
Helensville
North Shore
Tauranga
Ilam
Clutha Southland
Rodney
Selwyn
Waitaki
Kaikoura
Pakuranga
Waimakariri
Rangitata

0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%

As expected the Mana Party did best amongst the seven Maori seats. They had considerable variation
though ranging from 24.5% in Te Tai Tokerau to 5.9% in Te Tai Tonga.
Their next best seats were Northland and Rotorua on 1.3% and 1.0%. In only 10 seats did they get over 1%.
They got below 0.5% in 47 seats.
Their median seat was Tamaki on 0.3%.
Their worst seats were Rangitata and Waimakariri on 0.1%.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 34 -

ACT 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Epsom
Tamaki
Waikato
North Shore
Clutha Southland
Pakuranga
Whangarei
Botany
Northland
East Coast Bays
Rangitikei
Taranaki-King Country
Northcote
Tukituki
Hunua
Helensville
Coromandel
Wairarapa
Invercargill
Rodney
Maungakiekie
Auckland Central
Wellington Central
Taupo
Tauranga
Bay of Plenty
Ilam
Waitaki
Kaikoura
Whanganui
Mt Roskill
Napier
Papakura
Hamilton East
New Plymouth

2.6%
2.4%
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Rangitata
New Lynn
East Coast
Mt Albert
Selwyn
Hamilton West
Te Atatu
Rotorua
Waitakere
West Coast Tasman
Christchurch Central
Hutt South
Ohariu
Palmerston North
Port Hills
Nelson
Dunedin North
Rimutaka
Otaki
Rongotai
Wigram
Manurewa
Dunedin South
Waimakariri
Manukau East
Mana
Christchurch East
Mangere
Te Tai Tokerau
Hauraki-Waikato
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Te Tai Tonga
Tamaki Makaurau
Waiariki
Te Tai Hauauru

Act’s highest party vote was in Epsom where John Banks stood – at 2.8%.
They got over 1.2% party vote (enough for a second MP) in 18 seats.
Their median seat was New Plymouth on 1.0%.
The Maori seats were their worse seats followed by Mangere, Christchurch East and Mana.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%

- 35 -

ACT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Waiariki
Te Tai Hauauru
Te Tai Tokerau
HaurakiWaikato
Te Tai Tonga
Tamaki
Makaurau
Mangere
Manukau East
Wigram
West Coast
Tasman
Rongotai
Invercargill
Dunedin South
Dunedin North
Christchurch
East
East Coast
Port Hills
Tauranga
Nelson
Bay of Plenty
Rotorua
Manurewa
Rimutaka
Mana
Otaki
Christchurch
Central
Kaikoura
Whanganui
Palmerston
North
Hutt South
Waimakariri
Clutha
Southland
Whangarei

Change
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.3%
-0.3%

2011
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%

2008
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%

-0.4%
-0.5%

0.2%
0.2%

0.6%
0.7%

-0.5%
-0.8%
-1.1%
-1.2%

0.2%
0.3%
0.5%
0.6%

0.7%
1.1%
1.6%
1.9%

-1.3%
-1.3%
-1.5%
-1.5%
-1.5%

0.8%
0.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.7%

2.2%
2.0%
2.7%
2.1%
2.3%

-1.6%
-1.6%
-1.6%
-1.7%
-1.8%
-1.8%
-1.8%
-1.8%
-1.9%
-1.9%
-1.9%

0.4%
0.9%
0.7%
1.2%
0.7%
1.2%
0.9%
0.6%
0.7%
0.5%
0.7%

1.9%
2.6%
2.4%
2.9%
2.5%
2.9%
2.6%
2.4%
2.6%
2.4%
2.6%

-1.9%
-2.0%
-2.0%

0.8%
1.1%
1.1%

2.7%
3.1%
3.1%

-2.0%
-2.0%
-2.0%

0.7%
0.8%
0.5%

2.7%
2.8%
2.5%

-2.1%
-2.1%

1.8%
1.7%

3.9%
3.8%

35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

New Plymouth
Te Atatu
Mt Roskill
Taupo
Waitaki
Waitakere
Northland
Mt Albert
Napier
Ohariu
Ilam
New Lynn
Rangitata
Selwyn
Wellington
Central
Rangitikei
Hamilton West
Tukituki
Auckland
Central
Coromandel
Hamilton East
Botany
Wairarapa
Maungakiekie
Taranaki-King
Country
Epsom
Northcote
East Coast
Bays
Waikato
Papakura
Helensville
Rodney
Pakuranga
North Shore
Tamaki
Hunua

-2.2%
-2.3%
-2.3%
-2.3%
-2.5%
-2.6%
-2.6%
-2.6%
-2.6%
-2.7%
-2.7%
-2.7%
-2.7%
-2.8%

1.0%
0.9%
1.1%
1.2%
1.1%
0.8%
1.6%
0.9%
1.1%
0.8%
1.2%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%

3.2%
3.2%
3.4%
3.5%
3.6%
3.4%
4.2%
3.5%
3.7%
3.4%
3.8%
3.7%
3.8%
3.7%

-2.8%
-2.8%
-2.8%
-2.9%

1.2%
1.5%
0.9%
1.5%

4.0%
4.3%
3.7%
4.4%

-3.0%
-3.0%
-3.1%
-3.2%
-3.2%
-3.3%

1.2%
1.4%
1.0%
1.6%
1.3%
1.2%

4.1%
4.4%
4.1%
4.8%
4.5%
4.5%

-3.6%
-3.7%
-3.8%

1.5%
2.6%
1.5%

5.1%
6.2%
5.3%

-4.1%
-4.5%
-5.0%
-5.3%
-5.4%
-5.4%
-5.6%
-5.6%
-6.8%

1.6%
1.9%
1.0%
1.4%
1.2%
1.8%
1.9%
2.4%
1.5%

5.7%
6.5%
6.1%
6.7%
6.6%
7.2%
7.5%
7.9%
8.2%

ACT lost support in every seat. Their smallest decreases were the Maori seats as there was less vote to
lose.
The median drop was New Plymouth on 2.2%
Seven seats had a drop of over 5% with the largest being Hunua which dropped 6.8%.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 36 -

UNITED FUTURE 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Ohariu
West Coast Tasman
Taranaki-King Country
Rimutaka
Nelson
Taupo
East Coast
Kaikoura
Hutt South
Rangitata
Waitaki
Rangitikei
Rotorua
Invercargill
Clutha Southland
Hamilton East
Wigram
Waikato
Ilam
Hamilton West
Otaki
Selwyn
Coromandel
Mana
Wairarapa
Wellington Central
Tukituki
Palmerston North
Dunedin North
Napier
Rongotai
Northcote
Waimakariri
Bay of Plenty
Tauranga

1.8%
1.4%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Christchurch East
Christchurch Central
Dunedin South
Whangarei
North Shore
Hunua
Port Hills
Pakuranga
Northland
Helensville
New Plymouth
Whanganui
East Coast Bays
Papakura
Tamaki
Waitakere
Rodney
Te Atatu
Mt Roskill
Maungakiekie
New Lynn
Mt Albert
Botany
Epsom
Te Tai Tonga
Manurewa
Auckland Central
Mangere
Hauraki-Waikato
Manukau East
Te Tai Hauauru
Waiariki
Te Tai Tokerau
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Tamaki Makaurau

0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%

United’s highest party vote was in Ohariu where Peter Dunne stood – at 1.8%. Second was West CoastTasman at 1.4%
They got 1.0% party vote or higher in just 5 seats.
Their median seat was Tauranga on 0.6%.
Six of the Maori seats were their worse seats followed by Manukau East, Mangere and Auckland Central

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 37 -

UNITED FUTURE PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Taranaki-King
Country
West Coast
Tasman
Taupo
Waitaki
Tukituki
Clutha Southland
Te Tai Tonga
Te Tai Hauauru
Hauraki-Waikato
Wairarapa
Napier
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Rangitata
Waiariki
Rotorua
Kaikoura
Te Tai Tokerau
Coromandel
Tamaki
Makaurau
Nelson
Invercargill
Waikato
Tauranga
Bay of Plenty
Christchurch
Central
Whangarei
New Plymouth
Whanganui
Northland
Dunedin South
Wigram
Auckland Central
Rongotai
Otaki
Waitakere

Change

2011

2008

0.3%

1.1%

0.8%

0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.1%

1.4%
0.9%
0.8%
0.6%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
0.2%
0.7%
0.6%
0.1%
0.9%
0.1%
0.8%
0.9%
0.1%
0.7%

1.2%
0.8%
0.7%
0.5%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
0.2%
0.7%
0.6%
0.1%
0.9%
0.1%
0.8%
0.9%
0.1%
0.7%

-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%

0.1%
1.0%
0.8%
0.8%
0.6%
0.6%

0.1%
1.1%
0.9%
0.9%
0.7%
0.7%

-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%

0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.8%
0.2%
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%

0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
1.0%
0.5%
0.9%
1.0%
0.7%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Manukau East
East Coast Bays
Mt Albert
Helensville
Rangitikei
Dunedin North
Waimakariri
Hunua
Wellington
Central
Tamaki
Epsom
Rodney
Botany
Christchurch
East
Northcote
Hamilton West
Papakura
Rimutaka
Port Hills
Manurewa
Ohariu
Selwyn
New Lynn
North Shore
Mt Roskill
Te Atatu
Pakuranga
Hutt South
Hamilton East
Palmerston
North
Mana
Ilam
Mangere
Maungakiekie
East Coast

-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%

0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%

0.5%
0.7%
0.7%
0.8%
1.1%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%

-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%

0.7%
0.4%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%

1.0%
0.8%
0.7%
0.8%
0.7%

-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.6%

0.6%
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
1.8%
0.7%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.5%
0.9%
0.8%

0.9%
1.0%
1.1%
0.8%
1.4%
0.9%
0.6%
2.2%
1.1%
0.8%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
1.0%
1.4%
1.4%

-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.7%
-0.7%
-0.7%
-1.3%

0.6%
0.7%
0.7%
0.2%
0.4%
0.9%

1.2%
1.3%
1.4%
0.9%
1.1%
2.2%

United Future gained votes in 17 seats, with the largest gains being Taranaki-King Country and West CoastTasman.
The median drop was Waitakere on -0.3%
Seven seats had a drop of over -0.5% with the largest being East Coast which dropped 1.3%.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 38 -

RIGHT 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
(National/ACT/United Future)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Helensville
Epsom
Tamaki
Clutha Southland
Pakuranga
East Coast Bays
North Shore
Hunua
Selwyn
Rodney
Botany
Taranaki-King Country
Waikato
Ilam
Bay of Plenty
Taupo
Waimakariri
Kaikoura
Waitaki
Rangitikei
Tauranga
Rangitata
New Plymouth
Tukituki
Northcote
Coromandel
Papakura
Wairarapa
Hamilton East
Rotorua
Whangarei
Northland
Ohariu
Invercargill
East Coast

67.6%
67.4%
67.2%
65.5%
65.1%
64.9%
64.6%
64.5%
64.3%
63.7%
63.1%
63.0%
62.7%
60.2%
59.4%
58.4%
58.0%
57.4%
57.2%
56.3%
56.0%
55.5%
54.7%
54.7%
54.3%
54.2%
54.1%
53.5%
53.2%
52.9%
52.9%
52.2%
52.1%
51.9%
51.6%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Napier
Hamilton West
Whanganui
Otaki
West Coast Tasman
Nelson
Christchurch East
Rimutaka
Wigram
Christchurch Central
Palmerston North
Maungakiekie
Port Hills
Auckland Central
Hutt South
Te Atatu
Waitakere
Dunedin South
Mana
Mt Roskill
New Lynn
Wellington Central
Mt Albert
Rongotai
Dunedin North
Manurewa
Manukau East
Te Tai Tonga
Mangere
Te Tai Tokerau
Hauraki-Waikato
Tamaki Makaurau
Te Tai Hauauru
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Waiariki

50.4%
49.4%
49.1%
48.2%
48.0%
47.1%
47.0%
46.4%
46.0%
45.9%
45.5%
45.2%
44.9%
43.6%
42.7%
42.5%
41.5%
41.3%
41.1%
41.0%
40.6%
40.2%
37.9%
34.2%
33.7%
27.0%
20.3%
15.3%
14.9%
9.5%
8.7%
8.6%
8.1%
6.2%
5.9%

Helensville at 67.6% had the highest right vote followed by Epsom. 14 seats in total had a right vote over
60% and 36 seats had a right vote of over 50%.
The median electorate was East Coast on 51.6%.
13 seats had a right vote of below 40%.
The lowest electorates after the Maori seats and South Auckland were Dunedin North, Rongotai and Mt
Albert.
The seat with the highest right party vote that Labour won was West Coast-Tasman at 48.0%.
The seat with the lowest right party vote that National won was Auckland Central at 43.6%.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 39 -

CENTRE 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
(Conservative/Maori)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Waiariki
Te Tai Hauauru
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Tamaki Makaurau
Te Tai Tonga
Hauraki-Waikato
Te Tai Tokerau
Rodney
Northland
Rangitikei
Whangarei
Bay of Plenty
Waikato
Tauranga
Tukituki
Taranaki-King Country
Wairarapa
Coromandel
Taupo
Rotorua
Hunua
Kaikoura
East Coast Bays
East Coast
Helensville
Hamilton East
Napier
Whanganui
Pakuranga
Hamilton West
Otaki
Papakura
West Coast Tasman
Clutha Southland
Palmerston North

21.5%
21.4%
15.4%
15.0%
14.2%
13.5%
11.7%
6.7%
6.0%
5.0%
4.8%
4.7%
4.7%
4.6%
4.6%
4.5%
4.4%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.2%
4.1%
4.1%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
3.9%
3.9%
3.8%
3.8%
3.6%
3.6%
3.5%
3.5%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Waimakariri
Te Atatu
Rimutaka
Waitaki
Nelson
Northcote
New Lynn
Botany
Waitakere
Manurewa
Selwyn
North Shore
Mt Roskill
Wigram
Rangitata
Hutt South
Ilam
New Plymouth
Invercargill
Auckland Central
Christchurch East
Mana
Maungakiekie
Christchurch Central
Ohariu
Mangere
Mt Albert
Port Hills
Tamaki
Manukau East
Rongotai
Dunedin South
Dunedin North
Epsom
Wellington Central

3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.2%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.2%
2.2%
2.1%
2.1%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
1.4%

The combination of Conservatives and Maori as centre parties may seem strange but they were the only two
parties saying they could support either National or Labour, and in turn not ruled out by either.
After the Maori seats Rodney is next highest with 6.7% for centre parties, followed by Northland and
Rangitikei.
The median electorate was Palmerston North on 3.5%
The lowest electorates for the centre were Wellington Central and Epsom.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 40 -

LEFT 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
(Labour/Greens/NZ First/Mana)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Mangere
Te Tai Tokerau
Manukau East
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Hauraki-Waikato
Tamaki Makaurau
Waiariki
Manurewa
Te Tai Hauauru
Te Tai Tonga
Dunedin North
Rongotai
Mt Albert
Wellington Central
Dunedin South
Mana
New Lynn
Mt Roskill
Waitakere
Hutt South
Te Atatu
Auckland Central
Port Hills
Maungakiekie
Christchurch Central
Palmerston North
Wigram
Christchurch East
Rimutaka
Nelson
Otaki
West Coast Tasman
Whanganui
Hamilton West
Ohariu

82.5%
77.6%
77.3%
76.8%
76.3%
75.3%
71.4%
69.6%
69.4%
69.0%
63.5%
63.4%
59.3%
57.8%
55.9%
55.9%
55.8%
55.8%
54.8%
54.0%
53.4%
52.7%
52.4%
52.0%
51.0%
50.3%
50.0%
49.8%
49.6%
49.0%
47.5%
47.4%
46.1%
46.1%
45.0%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Napier
Invercargill
East Coast
Hamilton East
Rotorua
New Plymouth
Northcote
Papakura
Whangarei
Wairarapa
Rangitata
Northland
Coromandel
Tukituki
Tauranga
Waitaki
Rangitikei
Waimakariri
Kaikoura
Ilam
Taupo
Bay of Plenty
Botany
Selwyn
North Shore
Waikato
Taranaki-King Country
Hunua
Pakuranga
Epsom
East Coast Bays
Tamaki
Clutha Southland
Rodney
Helensville

44.9%
44.2%
43.8%
42.2%
42.1%
42.0%
41.9%
41.7%
41.3%
41.2%
40.9%
40.9%
40.7%
40.0%
38.8%
38.7%
38.1%
37.9%
37.6%
36.7%
36.6%
35.3%
33.5%
32.5%
32.1%
31.8%
31.7%
30.6%
30.6%
30.4%
30.4%
30.4%
29.9%
29.0%
27.8%

Mangere at 82.5% had the highest left vote followed by Te Tai Tokerau and Manukau East. 27 seats in total
had a left vote over 50%.
The median electorate was Ohariu on 45.0%.
21 seats have a total left vote of under 40%.
The lowest electorates were Helensville, Rodney and Clutha-Southland, all under 30%.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 41 -

RIGHT – LEFT 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Helensville
Epsom
Tamaki
Clutha Southland
Rodney
East Coast Bays
Pakuranga
Hunua
North Shore
Selwyn
Taranaki-King Country
Waikato
Botany
Bay of Plenty
Ilam
Taupo
Waimakariri
Kaikoura
Waitaki
Rangitikei
Tauranga
Tukituki
Rangitata
Coromandel
New Plymouth
Papakura
Northcote
Wairarapa
Whangarei
Northland
Hamilton East
Rotorua
East Coast
Invercargill
Ohariu

39.9%
37.0%
36.8%
35.6%
34.7%
34.5%
34.4%
33.9%
32.5%
31.8%
31.3%
30.8%
29.6%
24.1%
23.5%
21.8%
20.1%
19.8%
18.6%
18.2%
17.1%
14.7%
14.6%
13.5%
12.8%
12.4%
12.4%
12.4%
11.6%
11.4%
11.0%
10.8%
7.9%
7.7%
7.1%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Napier
Hamilton West
Whanganui
Otaki
West Coast Tasman
Nelson
Christchurch East
Rimutaka
Wigram
Palmerston North
Christchurch Central
Maungakiekie
Port Hills
Auckland Central
Te Atatu
Hutt South
Waitakere
Dunedin South
Mana
Mt Roskill
New Lynn
Wellington Central
Mt Albert
Rongotai
Dunedin North
Manurewa
Te Tai Tonga
Manukau East
Te Tai Hauauru
Waiariki
Tamaki Makaurau
Hauraki-Waikato
Mangere
Te Tai Tokerau
Ikaroa-Rawhiti

5.5%
3.3%
3.0%
0.6%
0.6%
-1.9%
-2.8%
-3.2%
-4.1%
-4.8%
-5.0%
-6.8%
-7.5%
-9.1%
-11.0%
-11.3%
-13.3%
-14.6%
-14.8%
-14.8%
-15.2%
-17.5%
-21.4%
-29.1%
-29.8%
-42.6%
-53.7%
-57.0%
-61.3%
-65.5%
-66.7%
-67.6%
-67.7%
-68.1%
-70.6%

Helensville had the largest margin between the vote for the right and the left at 39.9%. They are followed by
Epsom and Tamaki.
17 seats have a greater than 20% gap, and 40 seats (out of 70) have the right with more votes than the left.
In 30 seats the left got more votes than the right, In 21 of those seats, by more than 10%.
The median electorate was Ohariu with the right 7.1% ahead of the left.
The seven Maori seats and South Auckland are most favourable to the left with party vote margins of over
40%.
The seat with the highest right-left margin Labour won was West Coast-Tasman at +0.6%.
The seat with the lowest right-left margin that National won was Auckland Central at -9.1%.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 42 -

RIGHT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33

Christchurch
East
Wigram
Waimakariri
Christchurch
Central
Selwyn
Dunedin South
Port Hills
Te Tai Tonga
Rangitata
Ilam
Rimutaka
Kaikoura
Waitaki
Dunedin North
Nelson
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Clutha Southland
Te Tai Hauauru
Palmerston
North
Invercargill
Mana
Hauraki-Waikato
Hutt South
West Coast
Tasman
Taupo
New Plymouth
Tamaki
Makaurau
Ohariu
Waiariki
Rongotai
Wellington
Central
Otaki
Wairarapa

Change

2011

2008

8.4%
5.2%
5.1%

47.0%
46.0%
58.0%

38.6%
40.8%
52.9%

4.9%
4.5%
4.2%
3.9%
3.4%
2.3%
2.2%
1.8%
1.6%
1.6%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%

45.9%
64.3%
41.3%
44.9%
15.3%
55.5%
60.2%
46.4%
57.4%
57.2%
33.7%
47.1%
6.2%
65.5%
8.1%

41.0%
59.7%
37.1%
40.9%
12.0%
53.2%
58.1%
44.6%
55.9%
55.7%
32.6%
46.0%
5.2%
64.5%
7.1%

0.9%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%

45.5%
51.9%
41.1%
8.7%
42.7%

44.6%
51.1%
40.4%
8.0%
42.0%

0.6%
0.5%
0.4%

48.0%
58.4%
54.7%

47.4%
57.9%
54.3%

0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%

8.6%
52.1%
5.9%
34.2%

8.2%
51.9%
5.8%
34.2%

-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.3%

40.2%
48.2%
53.5%

40.4%
48.4%
53.9%

34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Tukituki
Te Tai Tokerau
East Coast
Rotorua
Whanganui
Auckland Central
Napier
Hamilton West
Rangitikei
Whangarei
Tamaki
Hamilton East
Mt Albert
North Shore
Tauranga
Epsom
Waikato
Taranaki-King
Country
Northcote
Rodney
Coromandel
Pakuranga
Bay of Plenty
East Coast Bays
Maungakiekie
Te Atatu
Helensville
Mangere
Botany
Waitakere
New Lynn
Papakura
Northland
Hunua
Mt Roskill
Manukau East
Manurewa

-0.4%
-0.5%
-0.8%
-0.9%
-0.9%
-1.1%
-1.1%
-1.5%
-1.6%
-1.6%
-1.7%
-1.8%
-1.9%
-1.9%
-1.9%
-2.1%
-2.1%

54.7%
9.5%
51.6%
52.9%
49.1%
43.6%
50.4%
49.4%
56.3%
52.9%
67.2%
53.2%
37.9%
64.6%
56.0%
67.4%
62.7%

55.1%
10.0%
52.4%
53.8%
50.0%
44.7%
51.5%
50.8%
57.9%
54.5%
68.9%
55.0%
39.8%
66.5%
57.9%
69.5%
64.8%

-2.4%
-2.4%
-2.6%
-2.6%
-2.8%
-2.9%
-2.9%
-3.0%
-3.1%
-3.5%
-3.5%
-3.7%
-3.8%
-4.1%
-4.3%
-4.3%
-5.2%
-5.4%
-6.0%
-6.4%

63.0%
54.3%
63.7%
54.2%
65.1%
59.4%
64.9%
45.2%
42.5%
67.6%
14.9%
63.1%
41.5%
40.6%
54.1%
52.2%
64.5%
41.0%
20.3%
27.0%

65.4%
56.7%
66.3%
56.8%
67.8%
62.3%
67.8%
48.1%
45.6%
71.2%
18.4%
66.8%
45.3%
44.6%
58.4%
56.6%
69.7%
46.4%
26.3%
33.4%

The largest increase in right vote was Christchurch East at 8.4% and then Wigram at 5.2%. The top five
increases are all in or by Christchurch. Next after that was Dunedin South.
30 of 70 electorates had an increase in the party vote for the right.
The median change was Te Tai Tokerau on -0.5%
The largest drops in support for the right was Manurewa, Manukau East, Mt Roskill and Hunua – all over 5%
drops.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 43 -

LEFT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Te Tai Tokerau
Tamaki
Makaurau
Waiariki
Mangere
Hauraki-Waikato
Manukau East
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Te Tai Hauauru
Manurewa
Te Tai Tonga
Mt Roskill
Waitakere
Papakura
New Lynn
Botany
Maungakiekie
Te Atatu
Hunua
Mt Albert
Epsom
Bay of Plenty
Northcote
Helensville
Northland
East Coast Bays
Tauranga
Tamaki
North Shore
Pakuranga
Hamilton West
Taranaki-King
Country
Rongotai
Wellington
Central
Hamilton East
Coromandel

Change
20.7%

2011
77.6%

2008
56.9%

15.5%
15.3%
14.9%
14.8%
11.2%
10.9%
9.8%
9.5%
6.1%
5.2%
4.3%
3.5%
3.4%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.6%
2.4%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.0%
1.0%
0.7%
0.5%
0.5%

75.3%
71.4%
82.5%
76.3%
77.3%
76.8%
69.4%
69.6%
69.0%
55.8%
54.8%
41.7%
55.8%
33.5%
52.0%
53.4%
30.6%
59.3%
30.4%
35.3%
41.9%
27.8%
40.9%
30.4%
38.8%
30.4%
32.1%
30.6%
46.1%

59.8%
56.2%
67.6%
61.5%
66.2%
65.9%
59.6%
60.1%
63.0%
50.5%
50.5%
38.1%
52.4%
30.4%
48.9%
50.5%
28.0%
57.0%
28.8%
33.8%
40.4%
26.4%
39.5%
29.2%
37.8%
29.4%
31.4%
30.1%
45.6%

0.5%
0.4%

31.7%
63.4%

31.2%
62.9%

0.4%
0.4%
0.2%

57.8%
42.2%
40.7%

57.4%
41.9%
40.5%

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Rotorua
Mana
Ohariu
Auckland Central
Whanganui
Waikato
New Plymouth
Napier
East Coast
Hutt South
Whangarei
Rangitikei
Dunedin North
Invercargill
West Coast
Tasman
Otaki
Rodney
Wairarapa
Nelson
Palmerston
North
Tukituki
Clutha Southland
Rimutaka
Rangitata
Taupo
Ilam
Kaikoura
Waitaki
Port Hills
Dunedin South
Christchurch
Central
Selwyn
Wigram
Waimakariri
Christchurch
East

0.1%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.6%
-0.7%
-0.7%
-0.8%
-0.9%
-0.9%
-0.9%
-1.2%

42.1%
55.9%
45.0%
52.7%
46.1%
31.8%
42.0%
44.9%
43.8%
54.0%
41.3%
38.1%
63.5%
44.2%

42.0%
56.1%
45.3%
53.0%
46.7%
32.4%
42.6%
45.6%
44.5%
54.9%
42.2%
39.0%
64.4%
45.4%

-1.6%
-1.7%
-1.8%
-2.1%
-2.1%

47.4%
47.5%
29.0%
41.2%
49.0%

49.0%
49.2%
30.8%
43.2%
51.1%

-2.1%
-2.2%
-2.7%
-2.7%
-2.8%
-2.9%
-2.9%
-2.9%
-3.0%
-3.9%
-4.6%

50.3%
40.0%
29.9%
49.6%
40.9%
36.6%
36.7%
37.6%
38.7%
52.4%
55.9%

52.4%
42.2%
32.6%
52.3%
43.7%
39.5%
39.6%
40.6%
41.7%
56.3%
60.5%

-4.8%
-5.6%
-5.8%
-6.4%

51.0%
32.5%
50.0%
37.9%

55.8%
38.0%
55.8%
44.3%

-8.6%

49.8%

58.4%

The largest increase in left vote were five of the Maori seats, plus Mangere and Manukau East. They all went
up by over 10%, with Mana making an impact there.
36 of 70 electorates had an increase in the party vote for the left.
The median change was Coromandel on +0.2%
The largest drops in support for the left was the Christchurch seats and Dunedin South.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 44 -

2011 VALID (PARTY) VOTERS
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Wellington Central
Rodney
Waitaki
Ohariu
Tamaki
Otaki
North Shore
Rongotai
Selwyn
Epsom
Tauranga
Bay of Plenty
Waimakariri
Rangitata
Helensville
Hunua
Nelson
Dunedin South
Wairarapa
Coromandel
Whangarei
Mana
Rimutaka
Auckland Central
Ilam
Kaikoura
Tukituki
New Plymouth
Napier
Maungakiekie
West Coast Tasman
Taupo
New Lynn
East Coast Bays
Port Hills

39,372
38,563
38,541
37,828
37,782
37,633
37,181
36,879
36,851
36,769
36,620
36,177
36,016
35,931
35,809
35,411
35,267
35,251
35,021
34,564
34,512
34,425
34,333
34,206
34,169
34,128
34,098
33,932
33,907
33,831
33,766
33,747
33,685
33,535
33,282

36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70

Hamilton East
Palmerston North
Northcote
Mt Albert
Hutt South
Northland
Pakuranga
Invercargill
Mt Roskill
Wigram
Hamilton West
Whanganui
Clutha Southland
Rangitikei
Papakura
Rotorua
Waikato
Waitakere
Taranaki-King Country
Te Atatu
Dunedin North
East Coast
Botany
Christchurch East
Christchurch Central
Manukau East
Manurewa
Mangere
Te Tai Tokerau
Waiariki
Tamaki Makaurau
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Te Tai Hauauru
Hauraki-Waikato
Te Tai Tonga

33,249
33,038
33,030
32,999
32,914
32,665
32,595
32,355
32,330
32,230
32,049
31,858
31,831
31,731
31,621
31,517
31,467
31,118
31,038
30,835
29,965
29,743
29,034
28,749
28,026
26,960
25,277
25,007
19,782
18,807
18,648
18,262
18,188
17,893
17,629

Wellington Central again had the highest number of valid voters at 39,372 followed by Rodney and Waitaki.
The median electorate was Port Hills with 33,282 votes. The mean was 31,964.
After the seven Maori seats which traditionally always have the lowest turnouts, we have South Auckland
and then Christchurch Central.

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 45 -

2011 PARTY VOTE PLACINGS
st

1
nd
2
rd
3
th
4
th
5
th
6
th
7
th
8
th
9

NAT LAB GRE
56
14
7
55
2
1
1
51
0
13
1
3
5
1

NZF

CON MAO MAN ACT

12
55
3

5
1
1
1
4
16
41
1

58
3
9

st

UF

1
4
1
3
44
12
8
3

4
6
6
48

nd

1
9
27
15
18

rd

This shows the number of seats in which each party came 1 , 2 , 3 etc. in the party vote. This is out of the
seven parliamentary parties plus NZ First only.
National won the party vote in 56 of the 70 seats, was 2
Labour won the party vote in 14 seats and was 2

nd

nd

rd

th

in 7 and 3 to 6 or the seven Maori seats.

in 55 seats. In Wellington Central they came third.

rd

rd

The Greens were 2 in 2 seats and 3rd in 51 seats. Median placing was 3 .
rd

NZ First were 3 in the party vote in 12 seats Median placing was 4th.
th

Conservatives were 5

The Maori Party were 2
Mana was 2

nd

in 58 seats. Median placing was 5th.
nd

th

in five seats. Median placing was 8 .
rd

th

in one seat and 3 in 4 seats, Median placing was 9 .

th

th

ACT were 5 in 3 seats. Median placing was 6 .
th

th

United Future were 5 in 3 seats. Median placing was 7 .

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

- 46 -

2011 ELECTORATE VOTE PLACINGS
st

1
nd
2
rd
3
th
4
th
5
th
6
th
7
th
8

NAT LAB GRE
41
23
21
44
1
3
53
6

NZF

7
18
5
2

CON MAO MAN ACT
3
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
26
3
9
22
5
19
1
2
6
16
2
1
3
1
2
st

nd

UF
1

3
5
6
5

rd

This shows the number of seats in which each party came 1 , 2 , 3 etc. in the electorate vote. This is out
of the parliamentary parties (and Conservatives) only.
National won the electorate vote in 41 seats, was 2

nd

rd

in 21 of them and 3 in one seat (Ohariu-Belmont).

Labour won the electorate vote in 23 of the 70 seats, was 2
Rodney and Waiariki).

nd

rd

in 44 seats and 3 in three seats (Epsom,

rd

The Greens were 3 in 53 seats.
rd

NZ First were 3 in seven seats.
The Maori Party won three Maori seats, were 2
Mana won one seat, were 2
Conservatives were 2

nd

nd

nd

rd

in two others and 3 in the remaining two.

rd

th

in two seats, 3 in two seats and 4 in three seats (including Manukau East).
rd

in one seat (Rodney) and 3 in two further seats (Botany and Pakuranga).

2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, david@farrar.com

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