An International Perspective on

Integrated Coastal Area Management

Professor Tim Smith

Director, Sustainability Research Centre

Inter-generational equity

Water

Consumption

Biodiversity

Population
Poverty Pollution

Globalisation Waste

Intra-generational equity

“As for the future, your task is not to foresee it but to enable it”

Antoine De Saint-Exupery
Saint-Exupery, A de 1952, The Wisdom of the Sands, Hollis & Carter, London (UK Edition).

Traditional approaches to coastal management • Top-down • Fuelled by ‘Tragedy of the Commons’ fears

Hardin 1968
Hardin, G. 1968, ‘The Tragedy of the Commons’, Science, Vol. 162.

The problems
• • • • • • • Adversarial modes of decision-making Mismatches of jurisdictions, benefits, costs and implementation Subordination of public interest to a special interest Lack of coordination and trust – intra and inter institutional ‘silos’ Institutional inertia Piecemeal or symptoms approaches to problems Ineffective use of science

 Inability to deal with complexity

Ways forward • Linking ecological and social systems
– – Systems thinking & sustainability learning Collaborative partnerships & effective community engagement
Senge 1990; Gunderson Holling & Light 1995; Wondolleck & Yaffee 2000; Smith & Smith 2006; Tàbara & Pahl-Wostl 2007
Senge, P. 1990, The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, Doubleday, New York. Gunderson, L. H., Holling, C. S., and Light, S. S. (eds) 1995, Barriers and Bridges to Renewal of Ecosystems and Institutions, Columbia University Press, New York. Wondolleck, J. M. and Yaffee, S. L. 2000. Making Collaboration Work: Lessons from Innovation in Natural Resource Management, Island Press, Washington DC. Smith TF & Smith DC. 2006, Learning Coastal Management, In Lazarow N, Souter R, Fearon R & Dovers S (eds.) Coastal Management in Australia, Coastal CRC, Brisbane, pp. 101-106. Tàbara J & Pahl-Wostl C 2007 Sustainability learning in natural resource use & management. Ecology & Society 12(2)

• New governance arrangements

Reasons for community engagement
• Ethical rationale: people should be involved in the decisions that affect them

• Substantive rationale: people may have unique contributions to public decisions and people‘s values and technical knowledge should help to inform the final decision • Pragmatic rationale: people that have contributed to and been educated by the decision-making process are more likely to support the decision outcome and facilitate its implementation

Adapted from Korfmacher 2001
Korfmacher, K. S., 2001, ‘The politics of participation in watershed modelling’, Environmental Management, vol. 27, pp. 161-176

Paradigm shifts

Management

Governance

Evolution of coastal management

Smith et al. 2010 after Smith 2002

Evolution of coastal management

Smith et al. 2010 after Smith 2002

Emerging context for coastal management

• Complexity, uncertainty and high decision stakes leading to changes in:
– The science-policy-community interface – Research approaches

 Typifies coastal management in the face of climate change

Climate change: what we know
• Hotter • Sea level rise • More extreme events:
– More intense storms – More intense floods – More intense storm surge

Is it really that bad?
Australia is a coastal nation
• 85% of Australia’s population reside within 50km of the coastline • up to 247 600 existing residential buildings will be at risk from sea inundation by 2100 under a sea-level rise scenario of 1.1m*

* Climate Change Risks to Australia’s Coasts Report

Is it really that bad?
Sea level rise is relatively easy ... it’s the extreme events that are the major worry!

Some examples of different outcomes
North Queensland versus South East Queensland

Fatalities:
• North Queensland (cyclone Yasi) = 1 • South East Queensland (floods) = >20 • Brazil (floods) = >700 Japan versus Indonesia

Fatalities:
• Japan (Tsunami and earthquake) = >20 000 • Indonesia (Tsunami) = >200 000

Understanding vulnerability
Eg. increased temperature
exposure

Eg. elderly
sensitivity Eg. social networks Adaptive capacity

Potential harm Past science focus

Vulnerability
Adapted from Allen Consulting 2005, after IPCC 2001

Allen Consulting 2005 Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability, Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment and Heritage, Canberra, Australia. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001). In: McCarthy, J., Caziani, O., Leary, N., Dokken, D. & White, K. (eds.) Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Drivers of climate change impacts Climate change drivers:
• Wind, sea level rise, rainfall, temperature

Other drivers:
• Population movements (eg. migration)

• Population characteristics (eg. education)
• Economic conditions (eg. ability to raise funds) • Legislative and policy frameworks

Coastal Population Growth Projections
Australian sea change regions (local government area, State) Projected population change (2002 to 2022) Sunshine Coast, Queensland 80% increase Surf Coast, Victoria 71% increase Douglas Shire, Queensland 65% increase Augusta-Margaret River, Western Australia 64% increase Projected population in 2022 450,000 30,572 17,365 16,513

Smith and Thomsen 2008, adapted from ABS 2001, and QDIP 2008
Smith, T. F. and Thomsen, D. C. (2008) “Understanding Vulnerabilities in Transitional Coastal Communities”, In Wallendorf, L., Ewing, L., Jones, C. and Jaffe, B. (eds.) Proceedings of Solutions to Coastal Disasters 2008, April 13-16, Hawaii: American Society of Civil Engineers, pp. 980-989. Australian Bureau of Statistics (2001) Population Projections by SLA (ASGC 2001), 2002-2022. Canberra: Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing. Queensland Department of Infrastructure and Planning (QDIP) (2008) Sunshine Coast population and housing fact sheet. Brisbane: Queensland Department of Infrastructure and Planning, February 2008.

Population at risk in South East Queensland
Risk of inundation from a 1-in-100 year storm surge event: • Current risk 270 000 people (10% of current population)

• Risk in 2030 without population growth 378 000 people
• Risk in 2030 with projected population growth of 60% 616 000 people
This material was prepared by Xiaoming Wang, Mark Stafford Smith, Ryan McAllister, Anne Leitch, Steve McFallan, Seona Meharg of CSIRO’s Climate Adaptation Flagship, based on research in the ‘South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative’, analysis of readily available information and expert knowledge to provide a realistic assessment of the issues covered.

From planning to implementation

Coastal strategy

Adaptive Capacity

Effective Implementation

Institutional complexity
Voluntary Conservation Agreement

Environmentally Relevant Activity: EPA Bed/banks River Major Rock Wall Wetland: Code of Practice for sustainable Cane Growing

Wet Tropics World Heritage Area

Voluntary Conservation Agreement Grazing Land, leasehold

Sugar Cane: Sugar Freehold Land Industry Act

Wetland

Provincial Boundary
Coastal Control District Marine Plants Regional Coastal Management Plan Recreation Area Management Act Declared Fish Habitat Area Fish Habitat Code of Practice Works in tidally affected areas

Source: Jenny Bellamy

Nested approach to coastal management
ICAM Conservation agendas Development agendas Economic growth agendas

Equity agendas
International agendas

Summary comments

• Approaches to coastal management are continuing to rapidly evolve • Climate change will exacerbate existing coastal management challenges • Institutions for ICAM need to be adaptive but also mainstreamed

Coastal management is achieved through social processes

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