October 26, 2008

Voters in TX-7 Looking for Change
Michael Skelly and John Culberson in Tight Race for Congress
To: From: Interested Parties Ben Tulchin and Julie Lein, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research

With less than two weeks until Election Day, wind energy businessman Michael Skelly is in a heated race with incumbent Congressman John Culberson. Currently, Skelly trails 44% - 49%, with 3% for the libertarian candidate and 4% undecided. The fact that Culberson is under 50% as an incumbent, with Skelly within striking distance, in what has been a traditionally Republican district is remarkable and demonstrates just how competitive Skelly is in this district. Furthermore, with recent public polling showing Barack Obama and Democrats leading Republicans countywide, Skelly has the momentum as the campaign heads into the final week.

Skelly and Culberson in Tight Race
50

49
40

44

30

20

10

0

3 Skelly Culberson Parks

4 Undecided

Driving Skelly’s strong performance is his consolidation of the Democratic base, out-performing Culberson with the GOP base, and leading among independents. Skelly draws nearly nine out of 10 Democrats (87% to only 9% for Culberson) and one in six Republicans (13% to 82% for Culberson and 3% for Libertarian Drew Parks). Most importantly, Skelly maintains an advantage among independent voters in the district, 46% Skelly – 40% Culberson, with 6% voting for Parks and 8% undecided.

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Texas CD-7 Survey Results

2

Skelly v. Culberson Vote Along Party Lines
Democrats Independents Republicans

+ 78
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

+6
90
90 80 70 60 50

-69
82

87

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

46 40

40 30 20 10

9
0

1
Parks

3
0

13
Skelly Culberson

6
Skelly Culberson Parks

8
Undecided

3
Parks

1
Undecided

0

Skelly

Culberson

Undecided

The trend for Skelly has been increasingly positive over time, as he continues to narrow the divide with Culberson. Starting with an initial 19-point deficit last December, Skelly has made steady progress over the course of the campaign and is now within just five points in the horserace.
Upward trend for Skelly over Time
60

Skelly

Culberson

50

52

54 48 49

40

44 39 37 39

44

30

33

20

10

0

12/12/2007

2/12/2008

4/12/2008

6/12/2008

8/12/2008

10/12/2008

Concerns over the economy continue to be the most resonant issue among Houston voters, with over half (56%) of the district citing the economy, jobs, and the financial crisis as their top concern for Congress. Among these economically-conscious voters, Skelly maintains a 46% - 42% advantage over Culberson. Overall, Michael Skelly’s message of bringing a new energy to Congress is clearly resonating with CD-7 voters who are eager for change. Voters are overwhelmingly pessimistic about the direction of the country, the incumbent Congressman draws less than a majority support, and President Bush is unpopular in the district – 37% favorable to 52% unfavorable – even though he won here by 26 points in 2004. These voters are looking for change in Congress, and Michael Skelly is well positioned to benefit from this demand for change and pull off an upset.

© 2008 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved.

October, 2008

Texas CD-7 Survey Results

3

Survey Methodology: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research conducted a telephone survey among 400 likely general election voters in the 7th Texas Congressional district from October 2223, 2008. The survey has a margin of error +/- 4.9%.

© 2008 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved.

October, 2008

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