Project evaluation

Y1 Q1: October-December 2011

This evaluation considers the available evidence to measure current progress against the seven stage one objectives of Open Briefing.

Objective 1: Establish the think tank and associated online presence

Objective 1 has been achieved. Open Briefing was registered with Companies House as a non-profit company limited by guarantee on 27 May 2011. Following a period of project development and fundraising, Open Briefing was publicly launched on 10 October with the unveiling of our website at www.openbriefing.org. Social networks were also established on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and LinkedIn, and a weekly e-bulletin and mobile and web apps were launched shortly afterwards. A podcast was then launched in November. To summarise, Open Briefing currently has the following online presence: Website e-Bulletin RSS feeds Podcast Social networks Facebook Twitter YouTube LinkedIn Issuu Scribd Mobile app Web apps

In addition, many of the intelligence desks also maintain separate RSS feeds and lists on Twitter and YouTube, which focus on their particular area of concern.

Objective 2: Collect, assess and distribute at least 90 open source intelligence items
On target to achieve and surpass the goal set in objective 2. Open Briefing has already analysed, filed and distributed 52 open source intelligence items in the ten weeks since launching. These items have been widely disseminated through our website, RSS feed, podcast and weekly e-bulletin and our Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn networks. Our users have also further disseminated them through their own networks using the sharing tools built in to our website.

Additional material has been solely disseminated through our Twitter and YouTube networks.

Objective 3: Publish at least 15 analyses, 3 dossiers and 2 briefings

On target to achieve the goal set in objective 3. Open Briefing has published four analyses, one dossier and one briefing to date. Analyses have been published on the dubious nature of US allegations of an Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador in Washington, the wider context of the capture and death of Muammar Gaddifi, an objective reading of the most recent IAEA report on Irans nuclear activities, and the possible effects of the Arab League sanctions against Syria; a dossier was published on the announcement by the Basque separatist group Eta of a definitive cessation of armed activity; and a media briefing was published on avoiding the mistakes of Oslo and Utya in future media reporting of suspected terrorist attacks. The media briefing, As the dust settles, has been particularly well received, with, for example, the Norwegian journalist and television producer Magnus Nome remarking that With its rational, thorough and transparent approach, Open Briefing has the potential to become an important corrective to often speculative media coverage. The briefing was also highlighted and quoted from in live reporting by The Guardian of the December 2011 grenade attacks in Lige, Belgium.

Objective 4: Sign up at least 300 subscribers to the organisation's weekly e-bulletin and social networks
On target to achieve and surpass the goal set in objective 4. Despite only launching ten weeks ago, Open Briefing already has 138 known subscriptions to our social networks and e-bulletin and other outputs (together with a further 81 known installs of our mobile and web apps). With support from a recent Network for Social Change fast-track funding grant, our Open Outreach project aims to greatly expand our network of subscribers, supporters and users, as this is where our ability to influence policy will come from.

Objective 5: Attract at least 500 visitors a month from around the world to the organisation's website
On target to achieve and surpass the goal set in objective 5. In the first month after the launch there were 772 unique visitors to the Open Briefing website (generating 1,212 visits and 4,222 page views). This dropped in the second month to 425 unique visitors (generating 662 visits and 2,016 page views), but has increased again in this third month. On average, visitors are currently viewing three pages per visit and staying on the site for over five minutes each time. Visits have come from all over the world, though a majority come from Europe and North America (predominantly the United Kingdom and United States). These are excellent results for a new and unknown organisation relying solely on word of mouth to engage new users and supporters.

Objective 6: Carry out a thorough evaluation of the organisation's effectiveness and value
On target to achieve the goal set in objective 6. Our progress in achieving our aim and objectives is being constantly monitored against qualitative and quantitative data from various independent sources. This will be summarised in quarterly reports such as this one. At the end of stage one a formal evaluation of the project will be carried out.

Objective 7: Secure longer-term funding for stage two of the project

Work has not started on achieving objective 7. The first necessity is to secure the full funding needed for stage one of the project. The required set up costs and operating costs for stage one are budgeted at 39,385. Of that, Open Briefing has successfully raised 29,265 from the Marmot Charitable Trust, the Network for Social Change, the Polden-Puckham Charitable Foundation and individual donations, leaving 10,120 still to raise. If successful, a pending application with the Network for Social Change peace pool for 12,000 would cover the remainder of the stage one budget and enable us to bring in some freelance capacity when needed, as well as pursue new initiatives that would increase our influence. This would then allow fundraising efforts to be focussed on stage two of the project. In addition, Open Briefing has received individual donations from members of the public totalling 195 (our target for the year is 500).

Other developments
Other developments include: We have launched new and improved versions of our mobile and web apps, with a complete redesign and added features. We have rationalised the think tank element of the project and developed and clarified our activities and outputs (see revised business plan). We have already received several applications for the associate analyst and intern roles, despite these voluntary posts not yet being openly advertised. We have launched two special projects: The psychology of security, and Achieving sustainable security.

Media coverage of Open Briefings work has included: The Guardian, 13 December 2011 The Friend, 17 November 2011 The Cornishman, 13 October 2011 and 10 November 2011 Ekklesia, 11 October 2011

Future developments
Key initiatives for the first half of 2012 include: Increasing the number of items filed by the intelligence desks and including more Open Briefing analysis with those items. Developing v2.0 of the RC(C) Evaluation System, with a simpler but more thorough percentage likelihood rating. Developing the special projects, beginning with a briefing paper on the social and cognitive biases that affect international security policymaking. Launching Caf Scurit, a university society network of weekly discussion groups for students of international relations and related subjects. Recruiting a dozen associate analysts to provide material for the intelligence desks and two interns to assist with the special projects and maintaining our social networks. Registering as a charity with the Charity Commission.

Conclusion
The successes we have already achieved and the obvious and surprisingly widespread interest Open Briefing is generating have set us on course to achieve and likely surpass all the planned objectives. It is worth highlighting that this progress has been achieved in only ten weeks and with only one part-time staff member. The organisation has been launched successfully and it is now time to concentrate on our core research and advocacy work. Future progress is needed on two key fronts: expanding our networks of outreach and influence, and building our fundraising base to enable the required extra capacity and secure longer-term funding. Chris Abbott, Executive Director 15 December 2011