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Simas Vanceviius Energy Security in the Baltic Sea Region in the 21. Century 10 October 2011

Will change in energy resources influence geopolitical powers positions in international arena? Examination of traditional geopolitics doctrine lets you clearly understand H. J. Mackinders idea, that nation who rules Heartland, rules all World island. According to him it was the main goal to A. Macedonian, and in more recent times - England, Germany or Russia. But only identification of the goal does not lead to the successful implementation of it. In world politics is usually rests on power relations in the international arena. I dare say that those who have the most power and political influence in a certain historical period are the main policy makers and developers. It is worthwhile to remember, that when viewed from a historical perspective, the nature of power varies - from a purely territorial (advantage when enemies cant reach you) when there were no states, later moving to possessing of human resources, marine power and mineral resources. When todays world is moving towards united global society, military power is losing its influence in global policy arena and there are more and more signs of increasing importance of economy, resources, energy and so on. Even more interesting is that almost all Heartlands territory is owned by one country - Russia, which also has a great energy power. According to the traditional geopolitical doctrine (especially H.J. Mackinder's thoughts), with this substantial foundation Russia should dominate in the international politics, but it is not happening. The reason for that is emergence of the global economy and the common Western policy towards Russia. At the current situation the Western world has an obvious economic power while Russian policy is based on only its minerals and energy sector. In today's globalized world, where national interests overlap and are integrate with each other, both regions are forced to seek compromise and cooperation. This work will try to prove that the todays situation is radically changing. This is happening because of rapid decrease in the states resources - gas, oil, coal, uranium, etc. Recourses decline in coming decades will create global energy shortages and will affect the entire world. First, Russia's power will decline while at the same time will decline

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Heartlands power to influence global politics. This problem will also affect the western countries, denying them chance to dominate in Heartland. On the other hand, the emergence and development of alternative energy sources are likely to create new power centers that by using their resources will be able to participate more in the global politics. Identification of these power centers and resources is the second goal of this work.

The theoretical basis

As already mentioned, in this work I will refer to the traditional theory of geopolitics, but also Ill try to adapt it to today's reality. It is due to the fact that traditional theory, in principle, allows the analysis of the resources it has been chosen to make implications to the future and identify new power centers that might emerge in the world. In his book, H. J. Mackinder formulate the idea that someone who owns Heartland' (most European and Asian continents in part) becomes empowered to manage the remaining states1. Today's political system denies Mackinders idea (there is no one power center in the world), so the question is what then leads to the emergence of leading states. The answer to this question can be obtained from the examination of the nature of power, because that power and allow those countries to have a stronger voice in the international arena. With the help of traditional theory of geopolitics, it is possible to analyze national and regional power not only by military and political aspects, but also by available resources and their utilization. One of these resources can be location (Tibet location in the mountains and gain advantage to protect itself against interventions from Heartland states2), marine power (Great Britain after great geographical discoveries used its advantage as an island, also naval and economic power to support its position as the leader3), or Germanys human and economic resources during the war4. These examples of traditionalism reaffirm the idea that during different historical period, certain specific resources have allowed individual countries to gain power over the others. It is the latter position, as a theoretical basis, allows examining countries current nature of power through their resources and predicting the future. In the modern

Halford J. Mackinder, Democratic Ideals and Reality. Washington: National Deffense University Press, 1942, 53 104. 2 Ibid, 73. 3 Ibid, 87 90. 4 Ibid, 91 94.

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world as practice shows control over the Heartland does not give a lot advantage, so that is why Russia has to rely on its energy and mineral resources in order to influence the western states. After all, Russia is a major exporter of oil and gas to Western Europe and also one of the largest exporters of energy resources around the world. Only because of economic power (the EU leads the world in terms of goods turnover and value added, etc.) (see Table 1.) Western countries can balance this situation. In today's world energy sector is an integral part of all the states. This is fully understandable, since it is a modern energy system that has helped mankind over the last two centuries to achieve such progress. During the last few decades scientists are emphasizing the decline of traditional energy resources worldwide and this issue will affect policies of all states. Here will contribute traditional geopolitics doctrine in order to identify which countries are going to lose their power because the loss of resources and which will gain it because of emergence of alternative energy sources.

The current situation

In respect of energy resources the world can be divided into separate weak and strong regions. Namely those of its energy resources - oil, gas, nuclear fuel, electric power, rich regions (Russia, North America, the Asia Minor peninsula), through its export policy can influence the remaining states. Already today, energy is an integral part of global production, and general economic development of countries. Over the past century states put themselves into a corner, because such strong integral link between energy and development was created. Energy resources wont last and at todays rate of progressive massive consumption and consequent production countries will shortly exploit them. (As shown in the table 2 and 3), the most oil-intensive countries (they are the strongest economies in the world) do not have the resources they need. This reflects the wellknown fact that the great majority of their economic resources need to be imported. Because of this relationship, based on the traditional doctrine of geopolitics, it is resource-holders, and more specifically their exporters, that have a major impact on global development trends. Middle East (more than 12 million. BRL / day), Russia (~ 5 million. BRL / day), Norway (~ 3 million. BRL / day), Mexico (about 2 million. BRL / day)5 are one of the main today's geopolitical power centers, which rely on oil exports. Although these centers have the power,

NationMaster, Energy statistics. Woolwich, 2008. < >

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which can be analyzed on the basis of the recent rises in oil prices and the growing concern of the importing countries, but at the same time, they are not economically strong (Table 1) therefore can not unilaterally dominate in the international politics. The next today very important resource electricity, that is mainly obtained from nuclear power plants. This sector is important not only for the fact that now occupies majority of electricity generation capacity (more than 50% of EUs electricity is received from the nuclear power plants), but also because it is associated with UN Millennium Development Goals, Sustainable Development Goals and energy future in general. According to Ambassador Vaclav Bartuska countries power emerges not from nuclear energy capacity or export of electricity, but from possession of uranium resources and production capacity of power plants6. On the basis of production capacity, one can distinguish only a few centers of power in the world - the U.S., France, Russia, Japan and Korea. All of these states may affect the future of the energy sector, but even they do not have large production capacity. Another cornerstone of the nuclear energy - uranium resources (Table 4), is as well limited and available to a small part of the world. When you put in one area uranium resources and production capacity, it is possible to single out just U.S.A. and Russia that dispose of them both. It is these countries that are the main centers of nuclear power today. Although now it is clear which countries are dominating in the world politics because of their energy power the situation is changing rapidly. As I have mentioned above fossil fuels reserves in the world are rapidly diminishing. This situation leads to the implications for the future - if consumption continues to grow, and traditional energy resources will decline, the political power of countries, that posses these resources, will be significantly reduced. Decline in energy resources also poses a grate threat to the world's future, since the current system is closely tied up with a relatively inexpensive and easily accessible energy. According to the Culham Fusion Center director S. Cowley, in the best case, petroleum resources will only last about 30 years, gas - ~ 40 years, coal - 100 years and uranium - 10 years7. These projections suggest, that future states and the regions, their power in international politics will have to ensure not with conventional energy resources but with its substitutes. When summarize this chapter it is possible to exclude two main energydominant countries in the world - the United States and Russia. They both have quite a strong

Vaclav Bartuska, On nuclear energy. Report TSPMI. Vilnius, 2010 10 01. < > 7 Steven Cowley, Fusion is energys future. Report in TED conference. Oxford, 2009 07. < >

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position both in the traditional energy sector (oil, gas, coal) and nuclear sector as well. Current situation analysis also lets explain U.S.A. unipolar domination in international politics during the post-Cold War period. During the Cold War, the two world's superpowers (U.S.A. and USSR) competed and their power was based on military resources. After the collapse of the Soviet Union the situation has changed - the United States remained at the top, and Russia moved to the second plan. This happened because of a change in the nature of the resource the shift was from the military power to the economic and energy. Today Russia disposes of large energy resources, but although by the economy (GDP data) is among the leading countries, this area is not developed enough and mostly based only on energy exports. Thus, the U.S.A. is bound to remain the only dominant state with well-developed economy and a strong energy sector.

Redistribution of powers
Conventional energy resources decline makes the world countries to think more often about alternatives. A very unusual position in this regard, expresses, R. Sears - a geophysicist and former Shell chief executive now working for MIT Energy Initiative. He argues that there will be no shortage of fossil fuels in the world, whereas the data of the last century shows that carbon-based fuels consumption is decreasing. In 1820 was reached the highest point of wood consumption, in 1920 - coal, 1975 - oil (after the peak reached in every of these sectors, the energy consumption from them is gradually decreasing)8. This scientist predicted that in the coming decade the gas consumption will peak and after that the transition to renewable energy sources will begin. So, whether or not the traditional energy sources will be used up, finally the states and regions power in the political arena will have to be based on alternative sources of energy. This situation is one of the guiding forces influencing the evolution of the resources.

Fusion Energy. One of the approaches to the alternative energy is being developed, with
the resources and input of the major world powers, by already mentioned S. Cowley and his Culham Fusion Center. Fusion energy (hydrogen isotope binding at high temperatures and an enormous amount of energy gained because of it) is based on almost inexhaustible and easily

Richard Sears, Planning for the end of oil. Report in TED conference. Longbeach, 2010 08. < >

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available to all hydrogen sources. Implementation of this project involves United States, Japan, India, Russia, China, EU, South Korea9. Since the fusion power production does not require any special fuel (it comes from the water), disposal of the fuel (not as in oil, gas and uranium resources) will not provide any real power in international politics. On the other hand, examining the prospects for fusion energy there is a whole other resource that is likely to provide the dominant role for the countries. Solely because the fusion reaction is extremely difficult to carry out, participation in the project gives the state a huge preponderance of capacity (similar to the case of nuclear energy). It is this advantage in the future will allow these countries to control the supply of energy and accessibility to production capacity. Given the need for energy, it will create conditions for countries to take over the economy to their hands, while at the same time, and international policy-making.

Terrapower technology. One more approach to alternative energy resources is developed

by Bill Gates. Terrapower - is also nuclear energy, but it provides the most advanced technology, uses uranium not suitable for use in conventional reactors, provides zero-level radioactive waste, while also allows the nuclear reactor to be operational for 100 years without refueling10. Modern science and innovation (supercomputer simulations, etc.) let to bring this idea closer to reality. As the world has not yet created the technology (in contrary to fusion reaction), it requires tens of billions of dollars of investment, which only the strongest states on the planet can provide, while at the same time getting direct access to production facilities and information. Although it states that it is a global project which in the future will help to stabilize relations between the U.S.A. and China, rich and poor regions, and in particular will be great weapon in fight against global poverty11 - countries which directly contribute to its implementation will have a far greater advantage than any other country in the world. So, if it will be achieved a breakthrough in this area, as in case of nuclear energy, countires that posses uranium resources and productivity capacity will gain substantial power in global energy sector and through it international politics in general.

Renewable energy sources. Of this type of energy is widely spoken around the world, but

Steven Cowley, Fusion is energys future. Report in TED conference. Oxford, 2009 07. < > 10 Bill Gates, Inovating to zero. Report in TED conference. Longbeach, 2010 08. < > 11 Ibid.

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according to Bill Gross, renewable energy is directly dependent on the geographical environment (which can be seen as one of the national and regional resources)12. As a result, alternative energy is divided into the sunlight - can be efficiently extracted in sub-tropical regions, and the wind - the most efficient production recorded in the oceans and seas, or on their shores. The energy sector is not as efficient as the energy resources mentioned above and also requires a lot of expenses, which results in that it is included into energy grid only by developed and economically strong countries in the world. Since some of these countries do not have needed geographical resources, they move energy production from alternative resources to the poorer, but geographically relevant regions of the world. Such a position the U.S. takes when installing solar power plants in deserts of Mexico or the EU increasingly strengthening it positions in the African deserts. So we can say that this energy, that comes from renewable sources, in the future will provide a greater impact on the energy sector not only in developed world countries, but also in poor areas (where the energy is extracted).

Thus, this paper applied the traditional theory of geopolitics to today's context, considering the power of the states in the political arena on the basis of the available resources. Also, this work leads to the conclusion that in the long term, the traditional sources of energy and resources would wither away, and political power of countries which are disposing of these resources will eventually weaken. Taking into account all the arguments it is possible to predict that Russia (and thereby Heartland) will still occupy weaker positions in the international arena and may eventually fall into the shadow of the West. This indicates a very limited Russian approach to energy resources - it only focuses on nuclear energy, while Western countries are trying to integrate the various energy sectors. If such a policy will be continued, the after Cold War scenario will be repeated. When the change in the nature of resources happens (as already mentioned power arises from the disposition of resources), the Western world will have its power based in various fields and Russia will not be able to compete with it. Theory and contemporary experience led to the implications about the future, which aggregated to the energy resource map allows to predict what changes will happen to todays political power centers and where they will move. Also it allows to modify the

Bill Gross, New energy. Report in TED conference. Monterey, 2003 02.

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traditional geopolitical theory, and to change the idea of Mackinder to this - those who manage the most important resources for a period of time, acquires the power to govern the rest of the world. While speaking about Baltic Sea region it is important to mention, that according to this theory, it is possible to make long turn political goals. It is inevitable for this region to maintain diligent relations with Russia during the short period of time (at the moment a lot of energy resources comes from this neighbor country), but because as theory shows in future Russia will lose its importance as energy exporter it wont be good idea to include it in long term plans. In order to maintain strong positions in energy sector, countries of Baltic Sea region should participate in as much global projects a possible. Development and adaptation of alternative energy resources have to be increased. Also, when making long term policy plans, in order to diversify energy resources sector and energy importers, countries of Baltic Sea region should strengthen their relations with possible future energy exporters.

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Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Country United States of America China Japan India Germany United Kingdom Russia France Brazil Italy

Approximate GDPPurchasing Power Parity $13,860,000,000,000 $7,043,000,000,000 $4,305,000,000,000 $2,965,000,000,000 $2,833,000,000,000 $2,147,000,000,000 $2,076,000,000,000 $2,067,000,000,000 $1,838,000,000,000 $1,800,000,000,000

Table 1 World countries by GDP

# 1 United States: 20,680,000 bbl/day 2007 # 3 China: 7,578,000 bbl/day 2007 # 4 Japan: 5,007,000 bbl/day 2007 # 5 Russia: 2,858,000 bbl/day 2007 # 6 India: 2,722,000 bbl/day 2007 # 7 Germany: 2,456,000 bbl/day 2007 # 8 Brazil: 2,372,000 bbl/day 2007 # 9 Canada: 2,371,000 bbl/day 2007 # 10 Saudi Arabia: 2,311,000 bbl/day 2007 # 11 Korea, South: 2,214,000 bbl/day 2007 # 12 Mexico: 2,119,000 bbl/day 2007 # 13 France: 1,950,000 bbl/day 2007 # 14 United Kingdom: 1,763,000 bbl/day 2007 # 15 Italy: 1,702,000 bbl/day 2007

Table 2 Usage of oil per day

Table 3 Remaining oil resources

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# 1 Canada : 11,800 ton 2005 # 2 Australia : 8,980 ton 2005 # 3 Kazakhstan : 4,175 ton 2005 # 4 Russia : 3,275 ton 2005 # 5 Niger : 3,093 ton 2005 # 6 Namibia : 3,000 ton 2005 # 7 Uzbekistan : 2,300 ton 2005 # 8 South Africa: 848 ton 2005 # 9 United States : 835 ton 2005 # 10 Ukraine : 800 ton 2005 # 11 China : 730 ton 2005 # 11 Gabon : 730 ton 1999 # 13 Czech Republic : 320 ton 2005 # 14 India : 230 ton 2005 # 15 Brazil : 129 ton 2005

Table 4 Uran resources

Table 5 Posible centers of geopolitical power

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1. Halford J. Mackinder, Democratic Ideals and Reality. 2. EconomyWatch, The Worlds Largest Economies. 3. NationMaster, Energy statistics. 4. CIA The World Factbook, Oil reserves. 5. Vaclav Bartuska, On nuclear energy. 6. Steven Cowley, Fusion is energys future. 7. Richard Sears, Planning for the end of oil. 8. Bill Gates, Inovating to zero. 9. Bill Gross, New energy.