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Richard A. Wynne
Director Geopolitical and Policy Analysis Boeing Commercial Airplanes
March 3, 2010
Why do we care?
A critical industry
! Air travel is, and will continue to be, a highly valued and integral part of the social and economic fabric of our world ! Air travel is crucial to business, personal relationships, transporting goods and improving the standard of living around the world ! Today, the air transport industry supports (directly and indirectly) more than 32-million jobs... about 8% of World GDP* ! In 20 years, these economic benefits have the potential to more than double
*The Economic and Social Benefits of Air Transport 2008, ATAG
Our challenge: aviations CO2 emissions contribution could grow from 2% to 3% by 2030
Emissions by sector, 20002030 Mt CO2/year
60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000
3% of total
2% of total
Air Other transport Power Industrial Buildings Forestry Agriculture & waste
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Making selfish choices such as flying on holiday or buying a large car are a symptom of sin. Richard Chartres, Bishop, Church of England
100%
100% of Boeing major manufacturing sites will maintain ISO 14001 certification.
25%
Focus on 25% efficiency improvements in worldwide fleet fuel use and CO2 emissions by 2020.
15%
Improve CO2 emissions and fuel efficiency by at least 15%
75%
Devote more than 75% of R&D toward benefiting environmental performance
HIGHER DECIBELS
90% Reduction in Noise Footprint 70% Fuel Improvement and Reduced CO2
Noise dB
LOWER DECIBELS
LESS FUEL
EVEN LESS
EVEN LOWER
1950s
Noise footprint based on 85 dBa.
1990s
3.0
T re
nd
2.0
1.0
0.0
RPKs = Revenue Passenger Kilometers Source: ICAO, Scheduled Traffic and operating profit
2009E 1985 1986 1987 1988 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1989 1990 1991 1999 1992 2000 1993 2001 1994 2002 1995 2003 1996 2004 1997 2005 1998 2006 2007 2008
! ! ! !
Presented to ICAO GIACC/3 February 2009 by Paul Steele on behalf of ACI, CANSO, IATA and ICCAIA
Focus on Sustainability
Are all biofuels equal? What are the best sources?
Opportunities:
! Significant supplies ! Proven technology ! Steady supply ! Public policy support ! Lower lifecycle CO2 ! Avoids food for fuel ! Regional solutions ! Supply chain not mature ! Costs near-term
Challenges:
! Capital costs ! Energy, water intensive ! CCS tech. not mature ! Competes with food ! Airplane compatibility
Boeing is focusing on alternate fuels that have low life-cycle CO2 emissions
3
3 5 years
Fuels Approval
Feedstock Viability
Airport Infrastructure
Commercial Production
75%
20%
10%
10%
15%
Boeing Stakeholders: Commercial Airplanes Environment, Health and Safety Government Operations Boeing Research & Technology
Over time, as more feedstock is cultivated, more refineries come online and more biofuel is blended into fuel for commercial flights
<1%
1%
15%
30%
50%
Source: Beginners Guide to Aviation Biofuels, Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), May 2009
D1655
D1655
Boeing is working to: ! Research and test fuel to inform the aviation community ! Increase airline participation in ASTM ! Write a technical fuel certification report
Circles indicate potential locations for biofuel feedstock growth (indicative estimate)
Jatropha
Ready in 2 to 4 years Challenges
Warm climates only Manual harvest today
Halophytes
Ready in 2 to 4 years Challenges
Prove at scale Optimize agronomy
Algae
Ready in 8 to 10 years Challenges
Bio-optimization Competing approaches Processing costs
Fossil Fuels mature technology chasing finite & diminishing supply Biofuels emerging technology driving renewable & increasing supply
COST
TIME
*Data is notional
20,000 vehicles
Processing
UOP-type hydrotreating
Certification
ASTM spec ???
Cellulosics
Pyrolysis/gasification /fermentation
www.safug.org
Sustainability Pledge
Things to remember
! Commercial aviation is a critical driver of economic growth and good jobs ! Boeing is committed to the environment ! Sustainable biofuels, produced at scale and at an acceptable price point, are a central element in reducing aviations GHG emissions ! Feedstock availability and cost are the major challenges ! Let a hundred flowers blossom ! Coherent and focused policy advocacy required
The Challenge
Just as employees mastered "impossible" challenges like supersonic flight, stealth, space exploration and super-efficient composite airplanes, now we must focus our spirit of innovation and our resources on reducing greenhousegas emissions in our products and operations.
W. J. McNerney Chairman, President and CEO The Boeing Company
THANK YOU
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