Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: U.S. Re-engagement in Southeast Asia: Chinese Responses Carlyle A. Thayer December 20, 2011

[clientnamedeleted] Q1.WhatisyourassessmentaboutthepermanentdeploymentofU.S.combatships toSingaporeandthePhilippinesincomingyears?Alongwiththedecisiontodeploy 2500 marines to Darwin, does this represent a new assertive U.S. strategy in THE AsiaPacificaswellasSoutheastAsia? ANSWER: Singapore has agreed to host U.S. Littoral Combat Ships but the issue in thePhilippineshasnotbeensettled.TherearegreatsensitivitiesinthePhilippines regardingprovidingfacilitiestoforeignmilitariesthatcanbeconstruedasbases.It should also be born in mind that U.S. policy for many years as been and remains places not [permanent] bases. The deployment of up to 2,500 U.S. Marines to training facilities near Darwin will be on a rotational basis. They will not be permanently stationed there and the U.S. will not establish permanent bases in Australia. ThesechangesresultedfromaU.SForcePostureReviewabouthowtobestutilize U.S.militaryforcesandassetsintheAsiaPacific.Onemajorstrategicdevelopment influencing the porting of ships in Singapore and the rotation of U.S. Marines in DarwinistheemergenceofanIndoPacificmaritimeregionthatincludestheIndian Ocean,thewatersofSoutheastAsiaandtheWesternPacific. AU.S.presenceinSingaporeandAustraliareinforcesthealreadystrongdefenceand security ties among these countries. They are designed to make good on the interestsofallthreecountriesinfreedomandsafetyofnavigationandoverflightin SoutheastAsianwatersincludingtheSouthChinaSea. Q2.WilltheU.S.reestablishitsSouthEastAsiabasesasitdidinSubicBayandClark AirfieldinPhilippinesbefore?IncaseofstationedinSingapore,willtheU.S.Littoral CombatShipsimpactgeographically? ANSWER:TheUnitedStateswillnotestablishpermanentbasesinSoutheastAsia.In themodernerabasesbecomealiabilitybecausetheycanbetargetedbycountries possessing ballistic missiles. U.S. bases in Japan and Guam, for example, can be threatenedbymissilesfromChina.TheU.S.isseekingoperationalflexibilitytodeal with newly emerging challenges to regional order. The Littoral Combat Ships will enabletheUnitedStatestodeploytotherelativeshallowwatersoftheSouthChina

2 Sea.Theseshipscanbeusedforantisubmarinewarfareandminehuntingaswellas lodgingmilitaryforces. SingaporemadeitsfacilitiesavailabletotheUnitedStateswhenitwasclearthatthe PhilippineswasclosingdownU.S.basesatSubicBayandClarkAirField.Singapore views the U.S. military presence as stabilizing and therefore offered to host U.S. shipsandaircraft.TheU.S.shipscancontributetostabilityoperationsnoonlyinthe South China Sea but in the western approaches to the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. Q3. In your assessment, how does the U.S. decision to deploy forces influence the structureandenvironmentofsecurityintheAsiaPacificRegion?Willthebalanceof forcesbalanceremain? ANSWER: The U.S. force posture relies on three aircraft carrier battle groups and nearly sixty percent of all U.S. nuclear submarines (attack and ballistic missile). SecretaryofDefenceLeonPanettahassaidthatbudgetcutwillnotaffecttheU.S. forcepostureinAsia.TheUnitedStateswillremainthestrongestnavalpowerinthe AsiaPacificfordecadestocomedespiteChinesenavalmodernization.TheU.S.also hasapowerfulnavalalliesinJapanandAustralia. TheU.S.forcepresencewillactasadeterrenttoChina.TheU.S.militarypresence willmeanitcanstepuptrainingandcapacitybuildingamongregionalnavies.Anda U.S. force presence means that it can respond quicker to threats to security much faster. Q4.HowwillChinareacttoU.S.moved?HowwillotherAsiaPacificcountriesadapt theirpoliciestonewsituation? ANSWER:Chinahasalreadyrevealedsomeofitsstrategy.Itwillusepropagandato arguetheU.S.isanoutsiderthatshouldnotbeinvolvedinregionalaffairs.Chinese propagandistswillalsoarguethattheU.S.isthecauseofsecuritytensions.Chinawill warn countries like Vietnam and the Philippines that they are playing with fire. Chinesepropagandaisdesignedtointimidateregionalstatesfromcooperatingwith theUnitedStates. China will continue with its plans for the modernization and transformation of it naval forces to be deploy and fight in the Western Pacific beyond the first island chain.ChinaispursuingastrategytomakeU.S.accesstotheWesternPacificmore difficultandtomakeU.S.accesstothewatersaroundTaiwanevenmoredifficult. TheU.S.anditsalliesandstrategicpartnerswillcontinuetomodernizeanddevelop interoperability. Other countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam will be more circumspectbutwillbuilduptheirowncapacitiesforselfdefence.Theywilldevelop morelimitedmilitarytieswithbothChinaandtheU.S.Theremainingstagesaretoo smallandweaktocontributetothemilitarybalance. China will step up its defence cooperation and defence diplomacy with regional statesandstresstheimportanceofdealingwithnontraditionalsecurityissues. Q5.Finally,howwillU.S.stationinginSingaporeimpactsovereigntydisputesinthe SouthChinaSea?

3 ANSWER: The United States has repeatedly made clear it will not take sides in sovereigntydisputesoverislands,rocksandotherfeaturesintheSouthChinaSea. Theymustbesettledbythecountriesindispute.TheU.S.willopposeanycountry that uses threats of force or force itself to settle territorial disputes. The U.S. will provide a military deterrent against intimidation of this kind. Finally, if diplomatic negotiationbetweenChinaandtheclaimantstatesbeginstofaltertheU.S.willoffer tofacilitateadiplomaticsettlement.Insum,aU.S.militarypresenceinSingapore and elsewhere in the region will act as a deterrent to Chinas use of force to intimidateregionalstates.