Survey of Public Opinion in Eastern Libya

October 12 – 25, 2011
This survey was conducted by Shabakat Corporation - www.shabakat.se

Survey Specifications
• • • Conducted by Shabakat Corporation on behalf of the International Republican Institute. Caerus Associates LLC contributed statistical analysis. Fieldwork was carried out October 12 – 25, 2011. The survey includes six out of Libya’s 22 districts: Al-Butnan, Al-Jabal Al-Akhdar, Al-Marj, Al-Wahat, Benghazi and Darnah. These six districts make up Libya’s eastern region. The sample was 1,428 adult Libyan citizens (age 18+). Overall margin of error = +/- 2.6 percent. Interview data was collected using in-person, face-to-face methodology by trained professional interviewers. Women interviewed women, and men interviewed men. Households were randomly selected using a multi-stage stratification proportionate to population sample distribution across the survey universe of six districts. Levels of stratification: (1) district (all six districts were sampled), (2) urban/semi-rural/rural, (3) municipality, (4) cluster, (5) household, (6) individual Only one individual was interviewed per randomly selected household. The Kish grid method was used to select respondents within the household. The right-hand method was used to select every third household within each randomly selected cluster. The response rate was 92.4 percent. The numerator for this figure is the number of surveys that were run to completion. The denominator is all respondents who were at home and met the qualifying criteria: aged 18 or older, residing at the address sampled, and not an National Transitional Council (NTC) official, a local-council official, a member of the military or police, a member of the media, or a member of any other security agency. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

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Survey questions

GENERAL

Now thinking about how things are going in Libya as a whole, how would you say things are going in our country overall these days? Are they going in the right direction or the wrong direction?
Don't know 8%

Refused 2%
Wrong direction 6%

Right direction 84%

Survey questions

GOVERNMENT & POLITICS

Do you support the NTC?

Strongly support Moderately support No opinion Moderately unsupportive Strongly unsupportive Refused Don't know 12%

84%

1%
1% 0% 1% 1%

Are there specific individuals or groups you support within the NTC? (open-ended question)
Mustafa Abdul Jalil* No specific individuals or groups / All NTC members Mahmoud Jibril**

36%

29%
22% 8% 2% 2% 2% 0%

Mustafa Abdul Jalil and Mahmoud Jibril
Don't know Refused Other None

*Mustafa Abdul Jalil is chairman of the NTC and therefore Libya’s interim head of state. **Mahmoud Jibril was chairman of the NTC’s executive board and therefore Libya’s interim prime minister. He had promised to resign after Libya’s had been “liberated,” and on October 23, 2011 (during the course of this survey), he did so.

How likely is the NTC to address the issues of Libya?

Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not at all likely 3% 1% 0% 3%

63%

31%

Refused
Don't know

What should be the NTC top priority? (closed-ended question)

Weapons collection
Medical treatment Provision of security Organizing a proper government Ensuring distribution of wealth Other Refused Don't know 0% 0% 4% 14% 22% 19%

33%

8%

What should be the main priority of the NTC? (open-ended question)
Establish new government Care for the injured and for families of martyrs Security provision Don't know Weapons collection Wealth distribution 6% 4% 15% 13% 13% 12%

19%

Infrastructure
Constitution Employment Refused Take care of youth Tribes Ex-Gaddafi officials

3%
3% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 6%

Misinformed population
Other

How important is it for the government to...?
Very important Somewhat important Indifferent Somewhat unimportant Very unimportant Refused / Don't know

Provide food and housing for poor people in society
Play central role in the economy and business sector Have laws that govern social issues, such as divorce and marriage Allow the press and media the freedom to publish anything they want Have laws that give all religious and tribal groups equal rights Have laws that govern religious issues, such as where you can worship

97%

2%

0%

0%

0%

0%

72%

16%

2%

2%

4%

3%

67%

15%

3%

2%

10%

2%

56%

27%

3%

5%

5%

3%

56%

15%

6%

5%

12%

6%

37%

13%

5%

7%

27%

9%

How much influence does this individual’s opinion have on you and your opinions about current events and politics?
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Head of household

67%

17%

14% 1% 2%

Strong influence
Some influence No influence

NTC member

45%

31%

21% 1% 3%

Refused
Don't know

Religious leader

42%

31%

22%

1%
Tribal leader 14% 28% 54% 1%

3%

3%

How much do you trust _________ to protect your neighborhood?
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

NTC

55%

26%

9% 8% 1%

Volunteers

40%

31%

13%

13% 2%

A great deal A fair amount Only a little Not at all Refused Don't know

Local brigades

36%

29%

11%

19%
1% 4%

Local police

28%

34%

16%

19%

3% Local tribe
13% 24% 16% 42% 1% 4%

How do you feel about the following statements?

Strongly agree People should be prohibited from offending other religions Religion should be part of public life (e.g. public education) Religion should be part of government Religion should be part a private/personal issue

Somewhat agree

No opinion

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

Refused / Don't know 1%

86%

8%

1%

1%

2%

84%

11%

1%

1%

2%

1%

68%

17%

2%

4%

7%

1%

44%

13%

3%

8%

28%

3%

Would you approve or disapprove of the future government of Libya being secular?

Refused 2%

Don't know 16%

Approve 14%

Disapprove 69%

When should national elections occur in Libya?

Within six months Less than a year More than one year Between one and two years 8% 8% 5% 1% 34%

44%

Don't know
Refused

What system of government would you like to have in Libya?
A democratic system with a strong president A democratic system with a strong parliament A federalist system that would allow for local autonomy A constitutional monarchy 7% 7% 6% 2%

43%

35%

Don't know
Refused

How do you feel about the following individuals and groups?
Strongly positive Mustafa Abdul Jalil February 17th Youth Mahmoud Jibril NTC military 87% 76% 70% 67% 59% 58% 52% 46% 42% 37% Somewhat positive 5% 20% 17% 24% 31% 31% 34% 37% 34% 29% No feeling 1% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 6% 8% 6% Somewhat negative 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 5% 3% Strongly negative 0% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 2% 3% 4% 7% Refused / Don't know 6% 0% 6% 3% 3% 3% 4% 6% 8% 18%

Local volunteers
NTC members Local brigades NTC police Obeidi tribe Amazigh tribe Ali Al-Issawi Jihadists Tribal leaders Ahmed Hussein Al-Darrat Jalal Al-Digheily Abdullah Shamia Salafists Muslim Brotherhood Tebus tribe Maghara tribe Touareg tribe Ghaddafa tribe Genturyah tribe

24%
20% 16% 15% 14% 14% 11% 9% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2%

20%
16% 39% 16% 18% 14% 17% 22% 16% 24% 15% 21% 2%

10%
13% 19% 10% 10% 7% 18% 17% 13% 14% 14% 10% 4%

5%
6% 9% 2% 3% 2% 10% 9% 7% 14% 10% 20% 6%

6%
18% 13% 2% 5% 2% 15% 16% 13% 20% 21% 34% 81%

35%
27% 4% 54% 49% 61% 29% 26% 43% 22% 36% 13% 5%

Survey questions

ECONOMY & EVERYDAY LIFE

How would you describe the current economic situation in Libya?

Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad

16% 59%

18%
6%

Very bad
Refused

0%
1%

Don't know

Over the last year, how has your household’s financial situation changed?

Gotten much better Gotten somewhat better Stayed the same Gotten somewhat worse Gotten much worse 8% 2% 1%

12% 36%

25%
17%

Refused
Don't know

In the next year, how do you expect your household’s financial situation to change?

Get much better Get somewhat better Stay the same Get somewhat worse Get much worse Refused 2% 1% 0% 0% 4% 20%

72%

Don't know

How has the situation changed over the past year with regard to...?

Gotten much better Development of independent media Development of independent civil society Access to electricity Security Access to water Living standards Education Health care Unemployment Infrastructure 48% 30% 19% 16% 15% 9% 5% 4% 2% 2%

Gotten somewhat better 31% 33% 30% 34% 20% 35% 18% 17% 12% 4%

Stayed the same 7% 17% 42% 18% 54% 33% 55% 37% 55% 50%

Gotten somewhat worse 3% 2% 6% 20% 6% 14% 8% 19% 11% 13%

Gotten much worse 10% 10% 3% 11% 5% 9% 13% 22% 17% 29%

Refused / Don't know 1% 8% 0% 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1%

In your opinion, is it your right to have a firearm in your home?
Refused 1% Don't know 1% Yes 20%

To your knowledge, is there a firearm in your home?

Refused 1% Yes 12%

No 78%

No 87%

If you could pick only one of the following, which would you first consider yourself to be?

Muslim Libyan Arab Member of a tribe African Refused Don't know 1% 1% 0% 0% 9% 41%

48%

Survey questions

FOREIGN RELATIONS

What is your opinion of...?

Highly favorable Qatar France the United Arab Emirates NATO Tunisia the United States the United Nations the European Union the Arab League Egypt the African Union 94% 84% 76% 68% 60% 60% 60% 53% 51% 45% 7%

Somewhat Somewhat Highly No opinion favorable unfavorable unfavorable 5% 11% 18% 21% 34% 30% 31% 33% 33% 41% 9% 0% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 6% 0% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 5% 12% 1% 1% 2% 5% 2% 4% 2% 2% 6% 4% 62%

Refused / Don't know 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 5% 2% 1% 3%

Which country does Libya have the best relations with?
Qatar France 21% 2% 69%

Which country has most supported the NTC?
Qatar
France USA UK
3% 25% 68%

USA
UK Italy Other Refused Don't know

1%
1% 4% 0%

1%
0% 3% 0%

Italy
Other Refused Don't know

1%

1%

Which country do you trust most in its relations with Libya?
Qatar

Which country has been the least supportive of Libya?
Algeria China Niger Chad India Other Refused Don't know 1% 3% 7% 5% 2% 2% 13% 68%

71%
13% 4% 1%

France
USA UK Italy

1%
5% 1% 4%

Other
Refused Don't know

Do you support international development to assist Libya with its transition to democracy?

Highly supportive

70%

Somewhat supportive

18%

Somewhat unsupportive

3%

Highly unsupportive

6%

Refused

0%

Don't know

3%

Survey questions

PROFILE OF SURVEY SAMPLE

Sampled Municipalities
Al-Butnān (District 1) Tubruq (semi-urban) Musā’id (rural) Kambūt (rural) Darnah (District 2) Darnah (semi-urban) Al-Qubbah (rural) Al-Tamīmī (rural) Mudīriyat Matrūbah (rural) Al-Jabal Al-Akhdar (District 3) Al-Baydā’ (semi-urban) Shahhāt (rural) Zāwiyat Bishārah (rural) Al-Labraq (rural) Fā’idīyah (rural) Al-Wāhāt (District 6) Ajdābiyah (semi-urban) Jālū (rural) Awjilah (rural) Al-Zuwaytīnah (rural)

Al-Marj (District 4) Al-Marj (semi-urban) Al-Abyār (rural) Sīdī Khalīfah (rural) Talmīthah (rural) Battah (rural) Jardas al-’Abīd (rural)

Benghazi (District 5) Benghazi (urban) Sulūq (rural) Al-Nawwaqīyah (rural)

Respondent age*

Respondent gender*

Over 50 7%

36-50 23%

18-25 38%

Female 49%

Male 51%

26-35 32%

*This is after all results were post-weighted by gender. The gender breakdown of the actual respondent sample was 69 percent male, 31 percent female. All figures in this presentation reflect post-weighting by gender.

Monthly household income (as stated by recipient)
More than LD 2,500 LD 1,501 - LD 2,500 LD 1,001 - LD 1,500 LD 501 - LD 1,000 LD 201 - LD 500 LD 200 or less Don't know Refused 5% 8% 7% 2% 4% 7% 28% 41%

Which answer best describes your current economic condition?
I am able to afford things like new clothes and eating out and also support other members of my family who are not able to do these things I am able to afford things like new clothes and eating at restaurants but not often I have enough means for survival, but I do not have enough money for extra things I have trouble feeding myself and my family, and buying even the most essential things for survival

12%

16%

53%

7%

Refused

5%

Don't know

8%

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