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2037
Fourth Quarter
January 2012
It was a difficult year for investors, one in which most markets and sectors fell appreciably, and a frustrating one, with several false starts. It was also a very volatile year one of the most in a long while with little direction, as investors reacted to the days headlines and latest pronouncements out of Brussels or Washington, buffeted by natural disaster, political upheaval, and credit downgrades. We dont know about the first, but we suspect we havent seen the last of the political and credit problems. Notwithstanding a far-fromPollyanna-ish outlook on European and U.S. debt, we are optimistic that this coming year will see a rally in many global stock markets (including Europes) and gold stocks as explosive if not as sustained as that which started in March of 2009.
margin usage; companies, particularly in the U.S., are in reasonably healthy condition; and finally, the easy money policies of central banks of the U.S. and Europe are creating the fuel for the rally. As for gold stocks, they are selling at 10-year valuation lows relative to gold itself. All in all, we could see strong moves in many markets and sectors this coming year, and likely in the first quarter. These rallies could be as explosive as 2009, if not as sustained. We are well positioned for such moves.
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Housing is the biggest problem in the economy, with excess inventory even as sales decline. Though a housing collapse would certainly hurt the economy including government finances, with nearly half of loans to developers from local governments it should be noted that housing is not central to the Chinese financial market the way it was in the U.S. before the bust. In the U.S., many houses were purchased with no money down, while others used home equity loans to finance both consumption and financial investments. In China, most buyers tend to be more wealthy and often pay cash, and there is a legal requirement for a minimum 30% down for first-time buyers. This limits damage to the overall economy.
Unless Chinas economy reverses which we think unlikely at present demand for resources will continue to grow; whether the economy grows at 10% or 5%, thats still a healthy increase in demand. Given the relatively low per-capita end-use of various items, including, for example, automobiles at less than 30 per 1,000 population compared with around 550-600 in most industrialized countries, there is a lot further to go.
In addition, the weakness in the Indian rupee caused the price of gold in that crucial market to move dramatically higher, leading the traditionally price-sensitive Indians to reduce and postpone gold purchases. Golds fall through its 200-day moving average, which had held in the past, dealt a psychological blow to the market and led to many pundits proclaiming the end of the bull market. Not so fast! Weve seen corrections before in this 11-year bull market, some of greater extent than this. The fundamentals remain positive, while central bank selling is likely to act as a floor on corrections (as it did at the end of September). The pullback suggests that the Indians will return in the traditionally strong New Year, while Chinese imports continue to hit new record highs (triple the level a year ago).
prepared to hold, particularly where stocks pay a decent dividend. Equally, however, we are anticipating a rally in the new year that could be
quite strong, and will certainly take the opportunity to raise some cash. Our cash exposure is just under 6%, including foreign currencies, which is down slightly from the 7% at the beginning of the quarter. That itself was down from earlier as we bought heavily when the global markets collapsed in September. As before, most of our cash is set aside for the potential exercise of puts we have sold. Our weighting to different broad sectors remains identical with the quarters onset: about 15% to major global markets; 14% to income-oriented stocks, mostly in the U.S.; high allocations to gold and resources; with the balance in funds, special situations, and emerging markets. Selling where risk increased Though we increased equity holdings, that does not mean there were no sales. We exited a few positions, mainly because of increased perceived risk, including our new toehold in Brazil well wait until the battle between higher inflation and a weaker currency is resolved Hong Kongs Swire Pacific, because of the risk of lower property sales, and Research in Motion, after it emerged that potential buyers of the company had passed. Buying undervalued stocks We took losses and moved into other situations, so we remain prepared for the rally we anticipate. We had only one new buy this quarter Spains Banco Santander, very cheap with a high dividend (with only one-third of its revenues from Europe, less than from rapidly-growing Latin America). We also added to existing positions, including some of the very cheapest (such as Portugals toll road operator, Brisa, trading at 3 times earnings and yielding over 12%), as well as some favorites (including Collectors Universe, taking advantage of a drop from $16 to $13, where the yield moved over 9%). As we mentioned, stocks in Spain, Portugal and other PIIGS were being thrown out before year end by managers lacking the courage of their convictions. As John Templeton put it, we believe in buying at the point of maximum pessimism.
As mentioned, we are anticipating a strong global stock market rally at some point in the months ahead. We are well positioned, but will use the opportunity to raise some cash, perhaps selling partial positions to reduce our cost basis. We will also be alert constantly to any heightened risk at holdings, so we can swap into something stronger or less expensive, but remain invested for the rally ahead.
Gold Accounts
Our gold accounts remain fully invested, with cash holdings down to under 2%. We have been buying as stocks have declined in recent months, both seniors and juniors. Our allocation to senior producers inched up again, now to a little over 26% of accounts, the highest weighting for some years. This is a result both of senior stocks holding up better in the recent decline, but also because of additional buying in this area. As before, mid-tiers are a little over 20% of accounts, with the rest in exploration companies and other resource stocks. Difficulties lead us to sell As usual in the gold and resource accounts, we trade a little more than in global accounts. This quarter we exited two companies, Newmont as protests against its $4.8 billion Minas Conga mine in Peru caused a suspension of the project; and Solitario, a company we bought for its royalty portfolio but sold as it undergoes the difficult task of developing its own mine. We will return to Newmont, but thought prudence the better part of valor, particularly in a weak market. Depressed prices present buying opportunities We added two new companies, Agnico-Eagle, a high-quality Canadian producer, whose stock tumbled after it wrote down a rather minor project; and Keegan Resources, with an advanced project in Ghana, and very undervalued. We expect to hold these for a while, though as always, well be watching both developments and stock prices. Most of our buying has been additional positions in existing companies, taking advantage of any particularly weak stock prices. This past quarter, for example, we added to Eurasian Minerals, Vista Gold, Allied Nevada, and Mirasol, as well as picking away at favorite Virginia on dips. More
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recently, we have stepped up to buy Goldcorp for clients who do not own it, after the stock tumbled over 20% to the low $40s. These buys, as always, are price sensitive, and rallies cause us to step back and wait. We remain very positive on golds fundamentals and think the gold stocks could finally play catch up in the next leg up for the gold market, particularly if the broad stock market is acting well at the same time. The stocks are very undervalued relative to bullion, while many of our exploration companies have interesting projects that could attract the eyes of resource-hungry seniors. This year could be an interesting one for the gold stocks.
prudence overruled optimism. We also sold several other stocks, not widely owned by clients, where the risk had increased. New agriculture holding We added one new company, Norways Yara International, a diversified global fertilizer leader, cheap on growing earnings. We want to increase exposure to agriculture, and the fertilizer industry is the best way to do this. Most other buys this past quarter were in gold, as well as opportunistically among other companies we already own, particularly in depressed geothermal company Alterra Power, which we believe has turned the corner, nearly doubling our position. Again, we remain firm in our conviction that we are only part way through a long bull market in resources and, therefore, remain nearly fully invested. We expect rallies in various sectors throughout the year gold early in the year and will take advantage of rallies to raise cash and reposition in other areas yet to move, particularly if Chinas slowdown seems to have stabilized. We can then increase exposure to copper, iron ore, PGMs and other areas that are most leveraged to Chinas economy. In sum, 2011 was a very difficult and frustrating year, with economic, natural and geopolitical disasters driving markets down. Throughout the year, false starts in Europe and the U.S. kept markets volatile. In the end, nearly everything was down, other than the U.S. stock market (essentially flat), and gold and oil, two of the few assets to be up for the year (though not so for the stocks). While not sanguine on any speedy or final resolution to the Euro-zones debt crisis nor to Washingtons ongoing budget problems we do believe that stocks, given their valuations and the weight of money on the sidelines, could see a strong rally this year, and we are positioned for that eventuality. Adrian Day, December 31st, 2011
Resource Accounts
We remain long-term bulls on resources, as discussed above. Last quarter, we indicated that the risk had increased due to concerns about an economic slowdown, in Europe and the U.S. as well as in China, leading us to look to exit some positions. We did indeed raise cash this past quarter, ending the year at a still-low 4% of accounts. But this belies the selling we did, since much of the cash raised was redeployed into sub-sectors and individual companies with less risk or better prospects, including gold. Gold allocation high The gold stocks remain our largest weighting in the resource accounts, and increased again (for the reasons above) to around a third of accounts. We remain bullish on copper, energy and agriculture, as well as PGMs and uranium, though the last two are perhaps more dependent on China than some other resources. We exited two major holdings, Canadas Daylight Energy after a takeover bid from a Chinese company, and Areva, after the Socialist opposition party (gaining in the polls) announced plans to scale back Frances dependence on nuclear power. Again,
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