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2012

Management Functions Quantitative Methods in Social Sciences Module for Intro. to Business Administration

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Sabri ERDEM Department of Business Administration

Decision Making

Quantitative Methods

Qualitative Methods

Calculus Statistics Econometrics Business Forecasting Management Science Decision Theory Operations Research

Modeling Concept

Verbal Mathematical Set of points that have equal distance (radius) from a certain point (center). Verbal Mathematical

Modeling Concept

Individuals consume more goods and services when increase in revenue. C = a + bYd

X2+y2=r2

Graphical

Graphical

02.01.2012

Quantitative Methods

Stochastic Methods

Situations where next stage is probabilistic Statistical Methods

Stochastic Methods

Descriptive Statistics Data Analysis

Regression Trend Analysis

Deterministic Methods

Situations where next stage is certain Decision making under certainty

Situations where next stage is uncertain Decision making under uncertainty

Deterministic Methods

Linear Programming Integer Programming Network Analysis

CPM/PERT Shortest Path Maximum/minimum Flow Transportation and Assignment

Data Summarization Frequency distributions Histograms Crosstab Analysis Probability Distributions Sampling

Descriptive Statistics GPA Levels

95% Confidence Level N Means Std. Deviation Std. Error Lower Limit Upper Limit Min Max

Descriptive Statistics

Frequency Table Histogram

Freshman

132

2,53

,507

,090

2,35

2,71

Junior

148

2,38

,599

,049

2,28

2,48

Senior

120

2,06

,639

,058

1,94

2,17

Total

300

2,27

,630

,036

2,20

2,34

02.01.2012

Crosstabs

Dept*Motivation Crosstab Before Midterm Exam Motivation Total Low Count BA % Dept % Total Count Dept ECN % Dept % Total Count THM % Dept % Total Count Total % Dept. % Total 52 52,0% 17,3% 34 34,0% 11,3% 17 17,0% 5,7% 133 44,3% 44,3% Med 18 18,0% 6,0% 50 50,0% 16,7% 35 35,0% 11,7% 103 34,3% 34,3% High 30 18,0% 10,0% 16 16,0% 5,3% 48 48,0% 16,0% 64 21,3% 21,3% 100 100,0% 33,3% 100 100,0% 33,3% 100 100,0% 33,3% 300 100,0% 100,0%

H0: All groups GPA means are equal H1: Not all are equal

Anova Sum of Squares Between Groups Within Groups Total Sd Mean Squares F P Value

9,295

4,648

12,621

,000

109,371

297

,368

118,667

299

Relationship between one dependent and one/more independent variables

OLS Method

Monthly Patients (X) (X1000) 10 12 18 16 15 14 8 7 10 Monthly Profit (Y) (X1000 TL) 100 140 132 125 136 142 90 95 120

Y=b0+b1X1+...+bnXn

Y: Dependent variable Xi: Independent variables bi: Regression coefficients

Correlation Coefficient

Forecasting

Predicting future Time series analysis

Moving Averages Exponential Smoothing Seasonal Adjustments Trend Analysis

Qualitative Analysis

Delphi Method Judgemental Analysis

02.01.2012

Like time based regression analysis

Independent variable: Time

Y=b0+b1Xt+...+bnXt-n+1

Y: Dependent var Xt: Independent var bi: Regression coefficients

Months(X) Monthly Patients (X) (X1000)

Decision Trees

Calculation of expected values in case of probabilistic/uncertain situations Making decision by induction backward

2005-10 (1) 10 2005-11 (2) 12 2005-12 (3) 18 2006-1 (4) 2006-2 (5) 2006-3 (6) 2006-4 (7) 2006-5 (8) 2006-7 (9) 16 15 14 8 7 10

Best choices: optimistic approach

Risk taker

Risk avoider

http://www.treeplan.com/images/treeplan_large_2009-11-06_13-22-46.gif

02.01.2012

Waiting line modeling Patients care, banking, cash points, call centers, maintenance staff and determinin ATMs Optimizing service cost

Single Channel/ Single Stage

Linear Programming

Objective Function (Maximization/Minimization)

Network Model

ABC Company produces chairs and tables. Maximum chairs for production period is limited by 6. For each chair two units of wooden material and for each chair three unit of wooden material is required. Total available wooden material is 19. Similarly, unit labor hours required by both chair and table is one and total available labor hours is limited by 8. Build LP model that maximizes total profit under given constraints.

Max z = 5x1 + 7x2 s.t. x1 < 6 2x1 + 3x2 < 19 x1 + x2 < 8 x1, x2 > 0

02.01.2012

Integer Programming

Linear programming where variables are integers

Possible variables: Patients, cars, engines, tourists, households...

Max Z=6x+5y s.t: x+4y<=16 6x+4y<=30 2x-5y<=6 x,y >=0 and integers

Branch-Bound Algorithms Cutting Planes Listing Enumerations

PERT: Project Evaluation and Review Technique CPM: Critical Path Method

Critical Path: Longest Path in a Network

Microsoft Project/Project Server Primavera

02.01.2012

Long term, complex and expensive projects Hundreds of activities Precedence relationships and parallel activities Certain and uncertain/probabilistic activity times Time/Cost trade offs Resource allocation and balancing

Table Representation

Capacity

Network Representation

Demand

Capacity

Demand

http://www.me.utexas.edu/~jensen/ORMM/models/unit/network/subunits/special_cases/transportation.html

Personnel-Job assignments Worker-Machine assignments 1/0 Integer Programming

Table Representation Network Representation

http://www.me.utexas.edu/~jensen/ORMM/models/unit/network/subunits/special_cases/assignment.html

02.01.2012

Dynamic Programming

Optimization by Best-of-Best

Stages States Decisions Optimal policy Transition functions

Non-Linear Programming

Objective Function and/or constraints are not linear

Quadratic Programming Polynomial Programming Trigonometric Models Expoential/Logarithmic Models Mixed Models

Differential based methods Methods Without Derivatives Local/Global Solutions

Divide&Conquer Method

min f ( x) ( xi x) 2 ( yi y ) 2 s.t. ( xi x) 2 ( yi y ) 2 bi

More than one objective function

Minimum cost Maximum efficiency of machinery Minimum waste ...

Objective/Goal Programming

Prioritization

Other Methods

Simulations Fuzzy Logic Artificial Neural Networks Evolutionary/Genetic Algorithms Simulated Annealing Ant Colony Optimization

02.01.2012

Simulation

Simulating decision making environment Monte Carlo Simlation Advanced Simlation Tools

Arena ProModel Siman GPSS ....

Fuzzy Logic

Simulation of Neural Netwoks

Prediction Pattern Recognation Classification ...

Evolutionary Algorithms

Biological Inspired Method Utilizing genetics for problem solving Operators

Cross Over Mutation New Generation ....

02.01.2012

Kaynak: http://www.ewh.ieee.org/soc/es/May2001/14/

Simulated Annealing

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