CBS NEWS POLL For Release: Monday, January 9, 2012 6:30 pm (ET

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Romney Leads and Santorum Surges into the Top Tier, But Voters Want More Choices January 4-8, 2012 • On the heels of his win in the Iowa caucuses last week, Mitt Romney leads in the race for the Republican nomination in this national poll. Newt Gingrich is in second, and Rick Santorum has leapt into the top tier and is now right behind Gingrich. Santorum’s support has increased by 11 points since last month. The poll finds dissatisfaction with the field of Republican candidates: 58% of Republican primary voters want more choices, up from 46% last October. 37% are satisfied. Despite his lead, just 27% would be enthusiastic about Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee. 33% say they would be enthusiastic about Santorum as the nominee, and 29% say the same about Gingrich. 17% would not vote for Gingrich if he were the nominee, compared to just one in ten who say that about Romney or Santorum.

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In the race for the nomination nationally, 19% of Republican primary voters support Mitt Romney, followed by Newt Gingrich with 15%, and Rick Santorum right behind him with 14%. This is an increase of 11 points for Santorum since last month, but a 5 point decline for Gingrich. 2012 Republican Nomination for President (among Republican primary voters) Now 12/11 11/11 10/25 10/3 Mitt Romney 19% 20% 15% 21% 17% Newt Gingrich 15 20 15 10 8 Rick Santorum 14 3 2 1 3 Ron Paul 10 10 5 8 7 Rick Perry 6 6 8 6 12 Jon Huntsman 4 1 1 1 2 Someone else 19 19 14 12 10 Undecided/Don’t know 13 17 17 14 18

9/16 16% 7 1 5 23 1 11 22

When voters who chose someone else are asked to choose a candidate from the current field, the race remains similar: Romney leads with 24%, followed by Santorum and Gingrich, each with 18%. Nationally, the race for the nomination remains fluid, and most voters have not completely settled on their candidate. Among Republican voters who pick a candidate, 71% say it’s too early to say whether their mind is made up. 28% say they’ve made up their minds. Moreover, a majority of Republican primary voters continue to say they have reservations about their candidate choice, and only 20% strongly favors their candidate.

Support for Candidate (among Republican primary voters with a choice) Now 12/2011 Strongly favor your candidate 20% 23% Like your candidate, but with reservations 59 62 Dislike other candidates 20 13 While the results of the Iowa caucuses dominated much of the news in the last week, 56% of Republican primary voters nationwide say the Iowa results are not important in their decision about whom to support in this election.

Dissatisfaction with the Republican Field Even with the nominating process now officially underway, 58% of Republican primary voters are unsatisfied with the current field of candidates and wish they had more choices. Republican voters are now more unhappy with their choices than they were last fall. Satisfied with Republican Candidates for President (among Republican primary voters) Now 10/2011 9/2011 6/2011 Yes, satisfied 37% 46% 43% 23% No, want more choices 58 46 50 71 Republican primary voters are not especially enthusiastic about any of the current candidates eventually becoming the party’s nominee. 33% of Republican primary voters say they would enthusiastically back Santorum if he became the party’s nominee – the highest of any candidate. A quarter would have reservations about him. Fewer Republican voters would enthusiastically back Romney (27%) or Gingrich (29%) as the nominee, and just 15% would be enthusiastic about Ron Paul. What’s more, 17% say they would not vote for Gingrich if he were the nominee, and 20% say that for Ron Paul. Only one in ten says they would not support Romney or Santorum. Republican primary voters would be least enthusiastic about Huntsman as the Republican nominee. If …. Were the Republican Nominee Would you …? (among Republican primary voters) Santorum 33% 26 22 11 Paul 15% 35 26 20 Gingrich 29% 33 18 17 Huntsman 12% 27 33 17 Romney 27% 40 22 9 Perry 17% 35 22 20

Enthusiastically support him Support him with reservations Support him only b/c he is the nominee Not support him

Enthusiastically support him Support him with reservations Support him only b/c he is the nominee Not support him

Overall, 27% of registered voters nationwide say they are more enthusiastic about the 2012 presidential election compared to past elections. Despite dissatisfaction with the field of candidates, there is a 20 point partisan enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats about voting in 2012. Enthusiasm Now vs. Past Elections (among registered voters) All Reps Dems Inds 27% 41% 21% 21% 24 24 24 25 48 35 53 53

More Less Same

Candidate Qualities: Electability When asked directly which candidate has the best chance to beat Barack Obama next year, Romney remains at the top of the list -- and has gained on the other candidates in the last month. Now, 49% say Romney has the best chance to win, up from 37% in December. Gingrich has dropped sharply on this measure, from 31% to just 13% now. Which Candidate Has Best Chance of Beating Obama? (Among Republican Primary Voters) Now Last month Romney 49% 37% Gingrich 13 31 Santorum 8 2 Perry 5 5 Paul 4 8 Huntsman 1 2 Fresh off his narrow victory in Iowa, most Republican primary voters (55%) now expect Mitt Romney to eventually be the Republican nominee for president– far ahead of any other candidate. Registered voters nationwide agree. Who Do You Expect To Be The Republican Nominee? Rep Primary Voters All Registered Voters Romney 55% 48% Gingrich 9 7 Santorum 7 7 Paul 4 6 Perry 3 3 Huntsman 2 2 Don’t know 20 26 As was the case last month, Republican primary voters remain divided about which is more important – half prefer a candidate who agrees with them on the issues (48%), but as many (47%) are looking for someone who has a good chance to win the presidency in 2012.

What’s More Important in Your Vote - A Candidate Who…? (Among Republican Primary Voters) Agrees on the issues 48% Will win in 2012 47 Republican primary voters who are most concerned about the issues are divided between Rick Santorum (15%) and Ron Paul (15%) as their top choice for the nomination, while those who are more concerned with winning in November pick Mitt Romney first (28%), followed by Newt Gingrich (18%).

Candidate Qualities: Values Rick Santorum has risen in the race for the nomination in this poll, and he resonates with these voters when it comes to his values. Santorum is now at the top of the list of candidates who best represents these voters’ values, closely followed by Mitt Romney. Santorum has risen 17 points on this measure since November. Which Candidate Best Represents the Values You Live by? (Among Republican Primary Voters) Now 11/2011 Santorum 22% 5% Romney 21 17 Gingrich 14 9 Paul 13 7 Perry 6 9 Huntsman 3 2 Santorum also leads by a large margin on promoting conservative principles. Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney trail him on this measure. Which Candidate Will Do Best on Promoting Conservative Principles? (Among Republican Primary Voters) Santorum 29% Gingrich 17 Romney 16 Paul 12 Perry 7 Huntsman 2 Among conservatives, Santorum’s lead grows even wider: 35% choose him as best on this, followed by Gingrich with 19%. Just 10% of conservative Republican voters choose Romney.

Candidate Qualities: Issues Mitt Romney’s strength lies in voters’ assessments of his handling of the economy: he is now clearly the candidate Republican primary voters trust most to handle the economy and unemployment. In December, Romney and Gingrich were tied at the top; Gingrich has dropped ten points since then. While just 12% choose Santorum as best on this measure, that is a 9 point increase for the candidate since last month.

Which Candidate Will Do Best On Economy and Unemployment? (Among Republican Primary Voters) Now Last month Romney 31% 26% Gingrich 16 26 Paul 13 16 Santorum 12 3 Perry 7 9 Huntsman 2 1 Newt Gingrich has maintained his strong position on being able to handle an international crisis; he continues to lead the other candidates by a large margin. Which Candidate Will Do Best on Handling an International Crisis? (Among Republican Primary Voters) Now 11/2011 Gingrich 35% 31% Romney 21 19 Santorum 8 3 Paul 7 3 Perry 6 9 Huntsman 3 4 And Romney ties Santorum on agreeing with these voters on the issues they care most about. Which Candidate Do You Agree with Most on Issue that Matter to You? (Among Republican Primary Voters) Now Romney 21% Santorum 20 Gingrich 17 Paul 15 Perry 8 Huntsman 4 Voter Groups Each of the candidates receives their support from different factions of the Republican primary electorate. Romney leads among women, moderates and Republican voters who do not support the Tea Party movement. Some groups that previously backed Gingrich appear to be migrating toward Santorum. Santorum is the leader among Republican voters who identify as very conservative – a group that Gingrich led with last month. Gingrich is ahead among those who say they are somewhat conservative. Santorum and Gingrich are tied among Republican primary voters who support the Tea Party movement, but Gingrich led this group by 16 points in December. White evangelicals now back Santorum in this race. Their votes were split between Romney and Gingrich last month.

Men (50%) Women (50%)

2012 Republican Nomination for President (among Republican primary voters) Romney Gingrich 18% 17 20% 14 13% 15% 17% 25% 18 17 23 8

Santorum 16 12 21 26 12 5

White evangelicals (39%) Very conservative (33%) Somewhat conservative (29%) Moderate (33%)

Tea Party (49%) 17% 19 19 Non-Tea Party (41%) 23% 12 9 ____________________________________________________________________
This poll was conducted by telephone from January 4-8, 2012 among 1,413 adults nationwide. 1,247 interviews were conducted with registered voters and 440 with voters who said they plan to vote in a Republican primary. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three points and five points for the sample of Republican primary voters. The error for subgroups may be higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

CBS News Poll Romney Leads and Santorum Surges in the Top Tier, But Voters Want More Choices JANUARY 4-8, 2012 q1-12 SEPARATE RELEASE q13 How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2012 presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far? **** REGISTERED VOTERS **** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 35 38 32 34 37 43 34 34 19 12 22 21 9 7 11 10 0 0 1 1

A lot Some Not much None DK/NA

Dec11b % 32 42 17 9 0

q14 Are you generally satisfied with the candidates now running for the Republican nomination for President, or do you wish there were more choices? *REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS* % 37 58 5 Sep11b % 46 46 8

Satisfied More choices DK/NA

q15 Which one of these candidates would you like to see the Republican Party nominate for President in 2012 - Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, or would you like to see someone else nominated? Dec11b^ 20 20 3 10 6 1 19 4 13 0 4

Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Rick Santorum Ron Paul Rick Perry Jon Huntsman Someone Else Michele Bachmann (Vol.) Undecided (Vol.) No/No one DK/NA
^Included Michele Bachmann

19 15 14 10 6 4 19 0 7 0 6

q16 If you had to choose, which one of these candidates would you like to see the Republican Party nominate for President in 2012 - Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum? *REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS* (No “Someone else” choice) % 24 18 18 11 7 4 2 10 1 5

Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Rick Santorum Ron Paul Rick Perry Jon Huntsman Someone Else (vol.) Undecided (Vol.) No/No one DK/NA

q17 Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure? *REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS WITH A CHOICE* % 28 71 1 Dec11b % 21 79 0

Mind made up Still too early DK/NA

q18 Which of these best describes your preference for the Republican nomination for President in 2012: 1) I strongly favor my candidate, 2) I like my candidate but with reservations, or 3) I dislike the other candidates? Strongly favor Like with reservations Dislike others DK/NA 20 59 20 1 23 62 13 2

q19 Compared to past Presidential elections, how would you describe you level of enthusiasm about voting in the 2012 Presidential election -- are you more enthusiastic, than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? *** REGISTERED VOTERS *** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 27 41 21 21 24 24 24 25 48 35 53 53 1 0 2 1

More Less Same DK/NA

Nov11a % 26 23 50 1

q20 Thinking about the Republican party's nominee for President in 2012, if you had to choose, which is more important to you -- having a Republican nominee who agrees with your positions on most issues, or having a nominee with the best chance of defeating Barack Obama in 2012? *REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * % 48 47 5 Dec11b % 49 48 3

Agrees with issues Win in 2012 Don't know/No answer

q21 Would you be willing or not willing to vote for a candidate for the Republican nomination who has views that are less conservative than yours if you thought that candidate had a good chance to win the presidency in November 2012? *REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * % 71 22 7 Oct07a % 64 23 13

Willing Not willing Don't know/No answer

q22 When you are deciding which candidate to support for the Republican nomination, how important are the results of the Iowa caucuses -- very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not important at all DK/NA q23-24 BLANK q25 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which one of these candidates do you think has the best chance of beating Barack Obama in the general election in November 2012 -- Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum? Dec11b^ 37 31 2 5 8 2 3 2 1 9 4 37 27 29 3

Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Rick Santorum Rick Perry Ron Paul Jon Huntsman Michele Bachmann (Vol.) All of them (Vol.) None of them (Vol.) DK/NA
^Included Michele Bachmann

49 13 8 5 4 1 0 1 3 16

q26 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which one of these candidates do you think most represents the values you try to live by -- Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum? Nov11a^ 5 17 9 7 9 2 10 13 1 8 19

Rick Santorum Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Ron Paul Rick Perry Jon Huntsman Michele Bachmann (Vol.) Herman Cain All of them (Vol.) None of them (Vol.) DK/NA
^Includes Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain

22 21 14 13 6 3 0 na 0 3 18

q27 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which candidate do you think will do the most to promote conservative principles -- Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum? *REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * % 29 17 16 12 7 2 1 1 0 1

Rick Santorum Newt Gingrich Mitt Romney Ron Paul Rick Perry Jon Huntsman Michele Bachmann (Vol.) All of them (Vol.) None of them (Vol.) DK/NA

q28 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which candidate do you trust most to handle an international crisis -- Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum? Nov11a^ 31 19 3 3 9 4 3 0 5 15

Newt Gingrich Mitt Romney Rick Santorum Ron Paul Rick Perry Jon Huntsman Michele Bachmann (Vol.) All of them (Vol.) None of them (Vol.) DK/NA
^Includes Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain

35 21 8 7 6 3 0 1 2 17

q29 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which candidate do you trust most to deal with the economy and unemployment -- Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum? Dec11b^ 26 26 16 3 9 1 8 0 1 10

Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Ron Paul Rick Santorum Rick Perry Jon Huntsman Michele Bachmann (vol.) All of them (Vol.) None of them (Vol.) DK/NA
^Includes Michele Bachmann

31 16 13 12 7 2 0 1 2 16

q30 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which candidate do you agree with most on the issues that matter to you -- Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum? *REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * % 21 20 17 15 8 4 1 0 1 13

Mitt Romney Rick Santorum Newt Gingrich Ron Paul Rick Perry Jon Huntsman Michele Bachmann (Vol.) All of them (Vol.) None of them (Vol.) DK/NA q31-34 BLANK

q35 If Newt Gingrich became the Republican nominee for President next year, would you enthusiastically support him, support him but with reservations, support him only because he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him? Enthusiastically support Support with reservations Support only because nominee Not support Don't know/No answer 29 33 18 17 3

q36 If Jon Huntsman became the Republican nominee for President next year, would you enthusiastically support him, support him but with reservations, support him only because he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him? Enthusiastically support Support with reservations Support only because nominee Not support Don't know/No answer 12 27 33 17 11

q37 If Ron Paul became the Republican nominee for President next year, would you enthusiastically support him, support him but with reservations, support him only because he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him? Enthusiastically support Support with reservations Support only because nominee Not support Don't know/No answer 15 35 26 20 4

q38 If Rick Perry became the Republican nominee for President next year, would you enthusiastically support him, support him but with reservations, support him only because he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him? Enthusiastically support Support with reservations Support only because nominee Not support Don't know/No answer 17 35 22 20 6

q39 If Mitt Romney became the Republican nominee for President next year, would you enthusiastically support him, support him but with reservations, support him only because he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him? *REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * % 27 40 22 9 2

Enthusiastically support Support with reservations Support only because nominee Not support Don't know/No answer

q40 If Rick Santorum became the Republican nominee for President next year, would you enthusiastically support him, support him but with reservations, support him only because he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him? Enthusiastically support Support with reservations Support only because nominee Not support Don't know/No answer q41-44 BLANK q45 Regardless of who you support, who do you expect to finally win the Republican nomination for President in 2012 -- Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum? *** REGISTERED VOTERS *** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 48 51 48 44 7 11 5 7 7 8 7 7 6 4 7 8 3 3 4 2 2 2 1 4 1 0 2 1 26 21 26 27 33 26 22 11 8

Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Rick Santorum Ron Paul Rick Perry Jon Huntsman Someone Else (vol.) DK/NA q46-54 SEPARATE RELEASE

Republican Primary Voters % 55 9 7 4 3 2 0 20

q55 Thinking about you vote for president this year, how important is it that a candidate shares your religious beliefs -- is it very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not very important Not at all important DK/NA 23 25 20 32 0 30 31 18 21 0 21 21 23 35 0 18 22 20 38 2

Total Respondents Total Registered Voters Republicans Democrats Independents Total Republican Primary Voters

UNWEIGHTED 1,413 1,247 380 451 416 440

WEIGHTED

1,133 350 (31%) 396 (35%) 387 (34%) 398

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