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Production Forecasting Production Forecasting process of judging how much production is required to meet estimated sales in a particular forecasting period. Considerations include previous sales, the general state of the economy, consumer preferences, and competitive products. Production forecasting decisions affect budgetary and scheduling decisions.

2. Difference between a Gantt load chart and a Gantt schedule chart? The Gantt load chart indicates a planned allocation of capacity in the allocation. Gantt schedule chart indicates, for each job or order, the relative adherence to the particular time schedule, i.e., what fraction of total time to be expended on an of the capacity of a department or work center to a particular job or order. The order has been expended. Examples: Figure5: This is an example of Gantt Load Chart:

A typical load chart is illustrated in figure above. This chart indicates that: Painting work centre is completely loaded for the entire week Metal Works, Mechanical and Electronics work centers will be available on Friday. 3. The white color box indicates that the work centre will be available. 4. The yellow color box indicates that the work centre is working on certain job, for example, painting work centre is working on the job349 on Tuesday and Wednesday. 5. The green box indicates that the centre is not available because is busy doing other work, for example, maintenance job, repairs job or shortages. Gantt Load Chart has some major limitations: y For one, it does not account for production availability such as unexpected breakdowns or human error that require reworking a job.. 1. 2.

The chart must also be updated regularly for account for new jobs and revise time estimates.


Example of the Gantt Schedule Chart:









1. Each of the green brackets on the time axis denotes the estimated starting and finishing of a job enclosed within it. 2. The red solid bars reflect the actual progress of the job. 3. The blue solid bar indicates the non-production time or maintenance time. 4. The blue dotted line indicates that the current date. Therefore, the progress of the schedule can be checked out whether it is ahead of schedule, on schedule or behind schedule. The results of the observation from the example of Gantt Schedule Chart above are: y y y Job A is about one-half day behind the schedule. Job B was completed after equipment maintenance, it is on schedule. Job C is ahead of schedule.

3. The Planning and Control files needed in a job shop activity system. The Planning Files: Item Master File: contains all manufacturing and inventory data relevant to an item. Data elements include: part number, descriptions, lead time: on-hand, allocated, and on-order quantities; and lot sizes. There is one record in the item master tile for each part number. The file contains, in one place, all of the pertinent data related to the part. For PAC, this includes the following: y y y y y y y y Part number, a unique number assigned to a component. Part description. Manufacturing lead time, the normal time needed to make this part. Quantity on hand. Quantity available. Allocated quantity, quantities assigned to specific work orders but not yet withdrawn from inventory. On-order quantities, the balance due on all outstanding orders. Lot-size quantity, the quantity normally ordered at one time.

Shop Order Detail File: contains all information relevant to the planning, scheduling, actual progress, and priority, related to an operation required by a shop order. Similar to the Master File, except each detail file record refers to a single operation. Data elements include actual set-up time, run time, and quantity disbursed as each operation is recorded. Each shop order has a detail file that contains a record for each operation needed to make the item. Each record contains the following information: y y y y y y Operation number. Setup hours, planned and actual. Run hours, planned and actual. Quantity reported complete at that operation. Quantity reported scrapped at that operation. Due date or lead time remaining.

4. What is input output control? How does it help the operations manager? Input/output control keeps track of planned versus actual inputs and outputs, highlighting deviations and indicating bottlenecks. Input/Output Control y Production activity control must balance the flow of work to and from different work centers. This is to ensure queue, work-in-process, and lead times are controlled. The input/output control system is a method of managing queues and work-in-process lead times by monitoring and controlling the input to, and output from, a facility. It is designed to balance the input rate in hours with the output rate so these will be controlled.

The input rate is controlled by the release of orders to the shop floor. If the rate of input is increased, queue, work-in-process, and lead times increase. The output rate is controlled by increasing or decreasing the capacity of a work center. Capacity change is a problem for manufacturing, but it can be attained by overtime or under-time, shifting workers, and so forth. Figure 6.13 shows the idea graphically.

Input/output report. y To control input and output, a plan must be devised, along with a method for comparing what actually occurs against what was planned. This in-formation is shown on an input/output report. Figure 6.14 is an example of such a report. The values are in standard hours.

Work Center: 201 Capacity per Period: 40 standard hours Period Planned Input Actual Input Cumulative Variance Planned Input Actual Input Cumulative Variance Planned Backlog Actual Backlog Figure 6.14 Input/output report 1 38 34 -4 2 32 32 -4 3 36 32 -8 4 40 42 -6 5 44 40 -10 Total 190 180 -10

40 32 -8

40 36 -12

40 44 -8

40 44 -4

40 36 -8

200 192 -8

32 32

30 34

22 30

18 18

18 16

22 20

7. Advantages of level material flow? Advantages of level material use are: lower inventory costs faster product throughput Shorter lead times) improved Component and product quality reduced floor space requirement improved communication between employees because they are closer together smoother Production process because large lots do not have hidden problems

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