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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

18 November, 2011

Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Bijoy Kar, CFA

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

DISCLAIMER &

DISCLOSURES

Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report

MIG BANK / Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes d’Or

Tel +41 32 722 81 00

Fax +41 32 722 81 01

MA

S-TERM

L-TERM

STRATEGY/

ENTRY

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS

STOP

MULTI-DAY

MULTI-WEEK

POSITION

LEVEL

 

EUR/USD

  • SHORT 3

1.3480

1.3140/1.3000/1.2860 (Entered 16/11/2011)

1.3650

GBP/USD

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Await New Buy Trade Setup.

USD/CHF



Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

  • LONG 3

1.0250

1.0360/1.0480/1.0670 (Entered on 10/11/2011)

1.0050

AUD/USD

  • SHORT 1

1.0570

0.9710 (Entered 01/11/2011)

1.0360

GBP/JPY

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Look to see how 104.00 fares.

EUR/GBP

  • SHORT 3

0.8555

0.8455/0.8285/0.8068 (Entered 11/11/2011)

0.8655

EUR/CHF

  • Sell stop 3

1.2130

1.2030/1.1526/1.1002

1.2230

GOLD

Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.

SILVER

  • SHORT 3

34.1300

29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011)

35.6880

       

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

CH-2008 Neuchâtel Switzerland

info@migbank.com

www.migbank.com

EUR/USD EUR/USD
EUR/USD
EUR/USD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

18 November, 2011

EUR/USD (Daily) BERMUDA TRIANGLE FAILED BREAKOUTS BREAKOUT ZONE (1.4000) 200-DMA (1.4102) 1.3000 (PSCHOLOGICAL) 1.2870 (2011 MAJOR
EUR/USD (Daily)
BERMUDA
TRIANGLE
FAILED
BREAKOUTS
BREAKOUT
ZONE
(1.4000)
200-DMA
(1.4102)
1.3000
(PSCHOLOGICAL)
1.2870
(2011 MAJOR LOW)
UPTREND
(2 YEARS)
EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Holding steady after sharp decline.

  • EUR/USD is holding steady after its sharp decline from key overhead resistance (primarily an important 2 year trend and its 200-day average).

  • Bearish momentum remains anchored by heightened contagion fears driven by greater European sovereign debt risk.

  • Expect downside scope into 1.3146 (Oct swing low) and psychological level at 1.3000, then 1.2870 (2011 major low).

  • Further pressure may also weigh from broad risk-related proxies. The euro continues to share a high correlation with the S&P500 and AUD/USD.

  • Inversely, the USD Index is holding above its long-term 200-day MA. The bulls are likely to recapture the recent 9-month highs near 80.

  • Speculative (net long) liquidity flows have unwound from recent spike highs (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain strong and help resume the USD’s major bull-run from its historic oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

USD INDEX USD INDEX EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9% CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%
USD INDEX
USD INDEX
EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%
CAD 9.1%,
SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%
(4 YEARS)
200-DMA
(75.72)
9 MONTH
HIGH
Special Report: EUR/USD ˝A Fall From Grace˝ ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410.
VIDEO
+19%
+27%
+10%
SO FAR
MIG Bank Webinar: “Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.”
US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg
BREAKOUT ZONE
DEMARK™
BUY SIGNAL
3 STD ABOVE
ONE YEAR
AVERAGE
TRIGGER
+
(15000)
13
9
KEY SUPPORT
DEMARK™
EXTREME NET
(73.50-73.00)
US $ SHORT
BUY SIGNALS
COT LIQUIDITY
-
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
POSITIONS
USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
 SHORT 3: 1.3480, Objs:1.3140/1.3000/1.2860, Stop: 1.3650
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

2

GBP/USD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

18 November, 2011

GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP GBP/USD hourly chart,b.kar@migbank.com , Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3 " id="pdf-obj-2-12" src="pdf-obj-2-12.jpg">
GBP/USD DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP GBP/USD hourly chart,b.kar@migbank.com , Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3 " id="pdf-obj-2-14" src="pdf-obj-2-14.jpg">
GBP/USD DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP GBP/USD hourly chart,b.kar@migbank.com , Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3 " id="pdf-obj-2-16" src="pdf-obj-2-16.jpg">

www.migbank.com

Break back over 1.6127 fails to materialise.

  • GBP/USD saw a clear break under the 1.5871-77 floor that had been containing weakness off the recent 1.6167 high. Monday’s failure to realise a return to 1.6200, to complete the rising phase off 1.5272, is another warning sign of a messy sideways market, with impulsive moves failing to materialise where expected.

  • We now look to see if the 1.5632 region can contain the current push lower. Failure to hold above this level will warn that strength from complete.

1.5272 is

  • The falling wedge that appears to be forming in the hourly timeframe is suggestive of an exhaustion of the recent down phase.

  • Sterling is expected to stay stronger then most, should the US Dollar enter into a strengthening phase.

S-T TREND

 

L-T TREND

STRATEGY

 

Await fresh signal.

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424

3

USD/JPY
USD/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

18 November, 2011

USD/JPY (Daily POST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT (PIR I) 1 YEAR) QUAKE SHOCK! 83.30 POST G7 MOVE (I)
USD/JPY
(Daily
POST INTERVENTION
RETRACEMENT (PIR I)
1 YEAR)
QUAKE
SHOCK!
83.30
POST
G7
MOVE (I)
HIGH
82.00
POST
BOJ
MOVE (II)
HIGH
80.24
POST
BOJ
USD/JPY Weekly
(2007 – 2011)
ENDING
MOVE (III)
HIGH
DIAGONAL
PIR II
PATTERN
BREAKOUT
TARGET
(85-79)
MONTHLY DEMARK™
BUY SIGNAL
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL AHEAD
OF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)
USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com

Probability favours retracement to pre-intervention levels.

  • USD/JPY is continuing to edge lower, with the growing probability of another price retracement back to pre-intervention levels (PIR) and potentially even a new post world war record low beneath 75.35 (PINL).

  • Furthermore, sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying pressure remains overcrowded as everyone in the market continues to try and be the first to call the market bottom.

  • This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders, which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.

  • The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a major long-term 40 year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection points to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

  • Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-term technical bias, including prior monthly DeMarkexhaustion signals, within the ending diagonal pattern, launching a powerful recovery into 91.00.

Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY   Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup. Ron William, Technical Strategist,
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
 Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426

4

USD/CHF
USD/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

18 November, 2011

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CHF DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP USD/CHF hourly chart,
USD/CHF DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP USD/CHF hourly chart,
USD/CHF DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP USD/CHF hourly chart,

www.migbank.com

Below 0.9316 suggests a corrective phase is more likely.

  • Strategy to buy at 0.9110 removed.

  • USD/CHF remains bound within the confines of the hourly channel which we highlighted yesterday. It has been decided to remove the strategy to buy at 0.9110, as a fall back down to this level, after pushing over 0.9200, would lead to a break down in positive structure, giving the long trade a weaker probability of success.

  • In fact while below 0.9316 a return to the region close to 0.8242 remains possible. However, if a break above 0.9316 can be achieved without breaking under 0.8568, a structural change will occur, increasing the probability of further gains ahead.

  • Focus still remains on Italian and Spanish sovereign yields. Also of interest is that French government bonds are widening across the whole curve versus their German counterparts, when compared to the spread just one month ago. This is a further warning sign, as shown in the chart to the left.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY   Await fresh signal. Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com,
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY

Await fresh signal.
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424

5

USD/CAD
USD/CAD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

18 November, 2011

USD/CAD (Daily) USD/CAD (Weekly) August High (1.0673) 200-DMA CONFIRMATION (0.9827) ABOVE 1.0680 OPENS LARGER DEMARK™ BUY
USD/CAD (Daily)
USD/CAD (Weekly)
August High
(1.0673)
200-DMA
CONFIRMATION
(0.9827)
ABOVE 1.0680
OPENS
LARGER
DEMARK™
BUY SIGNAL
USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
MAJOR RESISTANCE
CHF/CAD (Daily)
REVERSAL
PATTERN
50%
(1.3570)
61.8%
50%
(1.3379)
(1.1488)
61.8%
(1.0893)
200-DMA
(1.1335)
EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com
www.migbank.com

Bulls hold gains above psychological 1.0000 level.

  • USD/CAD’s short-term price activity remains positive, following the sharp bullish reversal from the psychological 1.0000 level (prior trading range).

  • Positive momentum needs to extend further into 1.0400 to rebuild the potential major upside reversal higher above the old resistance level at 1.0673 (August high & Congestion zone).

  • A strong directional confirmation above here will open a much larger recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the rate’s ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.

  • Only a sustained close beneath parity will unlock bearish setbacks into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9827 and 0.9726 (31 st Aug low).

  • EUR/CAD is extending above its 200-day MA, within a large multi-month trading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June swing high), which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern.

  • CHF/CAD continues to hold beneath the 200-day MA at 1.1335, following the dramatic price slide lower (triggered by the SNB intervention). The cross-rate has now retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.

S-T TREND

 

L-T TREND

STRATEGY

 

Long 3: 1.0250, Objs:1.0360/1.0480/1.0670, Stop: 1.0050

 

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

6

AUD/USD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

18 November, 2011

AUD/USD AUD/USD DEMARK™ (1 YEAR) (Weekly) SELL SIGNALS STRUCTURAL LEVEL 38.2% (0.9144) 3 YEAR 50% UPTREND
AUD/USD
AUD/USD
DEMARK™
(1 YEAR)
(Weekly)
SELL SIGNALS
STRUCTURAL
LEVEL
38.2%
(0.9144)
3 YEAR
50%
UPTREND
(0.8546)
IS UNDER
200-DMA
PRESSURE
(1.0413)
61.8%
(0.7947)
KEY
ZONE
AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/NZD
AUD/JPY
DEMARK™
13
(Daily)
SELL SIGNAL
(Daily)
200-DMA
CAPS
BEAR
MKT
38.2%
(76.70)
200-
DMA
50%
(82.95)
(72.58)
61.8%
(68.47)
RESUMPTION OF
BREAKDOWN
ADDS TO
RISK AVERSION
KEY SUPPORT
1.2319 / 1.2100
AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com

Testtsing 1.0000 psychological level.

  • AUD/USD’s sharp setback is now testing 1.0000 psychological level. Expect some temporary unwinding from oversold conditions.

  • Only a sustained move below 1.0000 is likely to compound downside pressure on the rate’s multi-year uptrend and push back toward 0.9611.

  • Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains stable against the New Zealand dollar. The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320 and 1.2100.

  • The Aussie dollar has reversed gains against the Japanese yen and is now trading back below the long-term 200-day MA which is currently at 82.88. Near-term support continues to hold at 77.63 (18 th Oct low). A break here will resume downside scope into 76.70 and signal further unwinding of risk appetite.

S-T TREND

 

L-T TREND

STRATEGY

 

SHORT 1: 1.0570, Obj: 0.9710, Stop: 1.0360

 

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

7

GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

18 November, 2011

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/JPY DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP GBP/JPY hourly chart,
GBP/JPY DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP GBP/JPY hourly chart,
GBP/JPY DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP GBP/JPY hourly chart,

www.migbank.com

Hourly falling wedge warns of downside exhaustion.

GBP/JPY has broken clearly under the 122.38/65 platform over the last two sessions. This now warns of a breakdown in positive structure. However, the hourly timeframe is currently exhibiting a falling wedge formation which is suggestive of a degree of downside exhaustion. We will thus await a bounce higher ahead of the possible formulation of a short strategy.

  • Strictly speaking a break under 120.85 needs to be witnessed, to completely break down the positive structure seen since 116.84.

  • If a push below this key level can be realised then a return back down to 116.84 would become favoured.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY   Await fresh signal. Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com,
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
 Await fresh signal.
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424

8

EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

18 November, 2011

EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP EUR/JPY hourly chart,
EUR/JPY DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP EUR/JPY hourly chart,
EUR/JPY DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP EUR/JPY hourly chart,

www.migbank.com

Initial signs of support seen close to 104.00.

  • EUR/JPY is currently testing the region close to 104.00. A degree of support was anticipated here.

Failure to hold above 103.41 will lead to a

complete breakdown in positive structure, with a return to 100.76 then favoured.

  • Back over 106.74 is required to neutralise the outlook in the short-term.

  • A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the medium- term outlook more bullish.

  • We will now monitor the price action close to 104.00 to try and determine if a short-term buying opportunity will present itself.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY   Look to see how the 104.00 region fares. Bijoy
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
 Look to see how the 104.00 region fares.
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424

9

EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

18 November, 2011

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP EUR/GBP hourly chart,
EUR/GBP DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP EUR/GBP hourly chart,
EUR/GBP DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP EUR/GBP hourly chart,

www.migbank.com

Return to 0.8486 and then lower now favoured.

  • EUR/GBP has failed to hold back over old trend line support in recent sessions. This now warns of a return to 0.8486 and then potentially lower. Weakness is still being contained by an hourly falling channel, with the support of this structure currently near 0.8450. A sustained break under 0.8486 will open up a return to the January 2011 low at 0.8285.

  • If a large move to the downside were to materialise in this environment, it is likely to be associated with Sterling being perceived as a safe haven. In this respect we need to monitor the yields on Italian, French and Spanish government bonds, noting that the ten year yield in both Italian and Spanish sovereigns are trading above 6.00%.

  • In the near-term, a break back over 0.8652 is required to neutralise the outlook once again

  • Failure to hold under the old double bottom and trend-line will warn of a false break lower, with a danger that trade returns back into the old range.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY   Short 3 at 0.8555, Objs: 0.8455/0.8285/0.8068, Stop: 0.8655 Bijoy
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
 Short 3 at 0.8555, Objs: 0.8455/0.8285/0.8068, Stop: 0.8655
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424

10

EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

18 November, 2011

EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP EUR/CHF hourly chart,
EUR/CHF DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP EUR/CHF hourly chart,
EUR/CHF DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP EUR/CHF hourly chart,

www.migbank.com

Approaches the 1.2500 region once again.

  • EUR/CHF is maintaining its tight trading range just under the 1.2500 level. It is anticipated that this zone may see a degree of resistance, particularly in light of the movement in periphery yield spreads versus bunds. Over time, this may lead to a renewed desire for a safe haven, with downside pressure returning to EUR/CHF.

  • We would prefer to trade this from a momentum perspective, awaiting a return to the 1.2000 region. Should a re-test of the 1.2000 region take place with a fall under 1.1973 also following, this would warn of the end of the recovery seen since 1.0075, increasing the probability of a return to this level.

  • It remains to be seen if the SNB will be able to hold back the possible flow of funds into Swiss Francs, that may occur, if further stresses lead to yet higher yields in Italian government bonds.

S-T TREND L-T TREND   Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230. Bijoy
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
 Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424

11

GOLD
GOLD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

18 November, 2011

GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS RISK ZONE III DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844 DOUBLE
GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS
RISK ZONE III
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844
DOUBLE
TOP
20%
DEMARK™ SIGNAL
WARNED OF GOLD’S
SO FAR
OVERBOUGHT
CONDITIONS
$1760
$1704
$1600
34%
$1532
200-DMA
BREAKOUT
NOT BROKEN
IN 3 YEARS!
26%
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530
UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE
INTO $1300 & $1040-1000
TREND
CHANNEL
(12 YEARS)
COT NET LONG
SPECULATOR
POSITIONS
I
25%
OVER 2 YEARS OF
SIZEABLE LONG
GOLD POSITIONS
UNDER THREAT
IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS
II
Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com

Weakening from resistance at 1800.

  • Short-term price activity is weakening from resistance at 1800. This may start to weigh on constructive recovery that we have seen over the last few weeks, following Gold’s dramatic 20% capitulation.

  • Speculative (net long) flows remain a concern having recently breached a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold positions.

  • There is heightened risk for a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly close beneath $1600 and $1592-30 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not been breached in 3 years!

  • A number of “bargain hunting” trend-followers will be watching this benchmark “line in the sand” for repeat support or a potential big squeeze lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Remember, this would still offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.

Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

S-T TREND

 

L-T TREND

STRATEGY



 

Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.

 

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

12

SILVER
SILVER

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

18 November, 2011

Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARK™ 13 SELL SIGNAL Silver (Daily) I DEMARK™ SELL SIGNALS 200
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High!
DEMARK™
13
SELL SIGNAL
Silver (Daily)
I
DEMARK™
SELL SIGNALS
200 DMA
II
(36.5125)
KEY
SUPPORT
(26.0700)
38.2%
(32.3135)
Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio
50%
(26.9150)
61.8%
(21.5165)
13 YEAR LEVEL
UNWINDING 67% FROM
OVERSOLD TERRITORY
OVER 30 YEAR BASE PATTERN
BULL
MARKET
FROM
1999
Silver Monthly (since 1980)
Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver “mint” ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP
Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver “mint” ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP
SILVER DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARK™ 13 SELL SIGNALr.william@migbank.com , Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13 " id="pdf-obj-12-12" src="pdf-obj-12-12.jpg">
SILVER DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARK™ 13 SELL SIGNALr.william@migbank.com , Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13 " id="pdf-obj-12-14" src="pdf-obj-12-14.jpg">
SILVER DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARK™ 13 SELL SIGNALr.william@migbank.com , Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13 " id="pdf-obj-12-16" src="pdf-obj-12-16.jpg">

www.migbank.com

Weakening into key support at $26.0700.

  • Silver is weakening back into its previous swing low at 26.0700. Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the major sell- off in September.

  • Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.

  • Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silver’s long- term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual resumption higher.

  • Continue to watch the gold-silver “mint” ratio which has now accelerated higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.

S-T TREND

 

L-T TREND

STRATEGY



 

SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 35.6880

 

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

18 November, 2011

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Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

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CONTACT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

18 November, 2011

  • Howard Friend

CONTACT DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 18 November, 2011 Howard Friend www.migbank.com Chief Market Strate <a href=g ist h.friend@migbank.com Ron William Technical Strate g ist r.william@migbank.com Bjioy Kar Technical Strate g ist b.kar@migbank.com MIG BANK info@migbank.com www.migbank.com 14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 Neuchâtel Tel. +41 32 722 81 00 15 " id="pdf-obj-14-13" src="pdf-obj-14-13.jpg">
www.migbank.com
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Ron William

Technical Strategist r.william@migbank.com

Bjioy Kar

Technical Strategist

MIG BANK info@migbank.com www.migbank.com
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14, rte des Gouttes d’Or

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