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Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan External Scan July 21, 2011

I. Demographic Data

A. Population Trends

           

%

2006

2011

2017

2020

2011

Estimated

Estimated

Projected

Projected

2011 to

to

Population

Population

Population

Population

2020

2020

Los Angeles Community College District (LACCD)

5,110,599

5,253,575

5,363,301

5,382,041

128,466

2.45%

Los Angeles County (LA Co.)

9,760,604

9,994,634

10,177,641

10,207,332

212,698

2.13%

California (CA)

35,979,051

37,801,004

38,979,441

39,138,311

1,337,307

3.54%

United States of America (USA)

298,593,217

312,816,057

322,200,698

323,404,631

10,588,574

3.38%

Population by Age Group: LACCD Service Area 1,600,000 2011 Estimated 1,400,000 Population 1,200,000 2017 Projected
Population by Age Group: LACCD Service Area
1,600,000
2011 Estimated
1,400,000
Population
1,200,000
2017 Projected
1,000,000
Population
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
Under 20 20 ‐ 24 25 ‐ 34 35 ‐ 54 55 and
Over

Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan External Scan July 21, 2011

Population by Ethnicity: LACCD Service Area 2011 Estimated 3,000,000 Population 2,500,000 2017 Projected Population
Population by Ethnicity: LACCD Service Area
2011 Estimated
3,000,000
Population
2,500,000
2017 Projected
Population
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
American
Asian,
Black or
Caucasian
Hispanic
Two or
Indian or
Native
African
more races
Alaska
Hawaiian,
American
Native
or other
Pacific
Islander

Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan External Scan July 21, 2011

Los Angeles County educational attainment data; note that these data only include population over the
Los Angeles County educational attainment data; note that these data only include
population over the age of 25:
2011 Educational Attainment* by Ethnicity:
Los Angeles County
College Degree
100%
14.45%
90%
22.68%
High School
32.00%
36.87%
80%
Diploma
52.45%
70%
57.73%
41.03%
60%
Less Than High
School
46.63%
50%
40%
54.48%
44.22%
30%
29.61%
40.31%
44.52%
20%
30.69%
10%
18.92%
12.66%
13.52%
7.23%
0%
American
Asian, Native
Black or
Caucasian
Hispanic
Indian or
Hawaiian, or
African
Two or more
races
Alaska Native
other Pacific
American
Islander

*Educational Attainment Key:

Less Than High School = High School Diploma = College Degree =

Less Than 9th Grade & 9th Grade to 12th Grade High School Diploma & Some College Associate's Degree, Bachelor's Degree, & Graduate Degree and Higher

B. Additional Population Statistics (from the 2009 American Community Survey)

                 

% Speak

Median

Age

Number of

Households

Average

Household

Size

Median

Household

Income

Labor Force

Participation

Rate (Age

% of

Individuals

in Poverty

%

Population

Foreign

% Foreign

Born that

are Non-

Language

other than

English at

16+)

Born

Citizens

Home (Age

5+)

LA Co.

34.2

3,166,126

3.05

$54,467

66.1%

16.1%

35.7%

54.7%

57.1%

CA

34.9

12,214,891

2.96

$58,931

65.3%

14.2%

26.9%

54.3%

43.1%

USA

36.8

113,616,229

2.63

$50,221

65.3%

14.3%

12.5%

56.3%

20.0%

Prepared by: LACCD Office of Institutional Effectiveness

Page 3 of 15

Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan External Scan July 21, 2011

II. Educational Trends

A. Tuition and Fees

Average Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fee Rates in Public Universities and Colleges, 1999-00 to 2009-10
Average Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fee Rates in
Public Universities and Colleges, 1999-00 to 2009-10
$
$10,000
$9,000
$8,000
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
Annual Cost UC
$3,000
Annual Cost Flg Univ
Natl Mean
Annual Cost CSU
$2,000
$1,000
Annual Cost State Univ
Natl Mean
Annual Cost CCC
$0
Annual Cost CC Natl
Mean
Year
   

Annual Cost Flg Univ Natl Mean

Annual

Annual Cost State Univ Natl Mean

   

Annual

Cost

Annual

Annual Cost CC Natl Mean

Year

Cost UC

CSU

Cost CCC

1999-00

$4,047

$3,809

$1,847

$3,025

$330

$1,638

2000-01

$4,046

$4,003

$1,859

$3,164

$330

$1,726

2001-02

$4,123

$4,263

$1,897

$3,384

$330

$1,811

2002-03

$3,830

$4,694

$2,072

$3,738

$330

$1,972

2003-04

$5,250

$5,221

$2,649

$4,173

$540

$2,146

2004-05

$5,956

$5,701

$2,993

$4,545

$780

$2,318

2005-06

$7,434

$6,172

$3,225

$4,872

$780

$2,481

2006-07

$7,800

$6,618

$3,228

$5,201

$690

$2,626

2007-08

$8,385

$7,021

$3,604

$5,517

$600

$2,735

2008-09

$8,932

$7,481

$3,927

$5,862

$600

$2,854

2009-10

$9,434

$7,963

$4,956

$6,257

$780

$3,029

Increase over period

233%

209%

268%

207%

236%

185%

Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan External Scan July 21, 2011

B. K-12 Enrollments

Plan External Scan July 21, 2011 B. K-12 Enrollments Prepared by: LACCD Office of Institutional Effectiveness
Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan External Scan July 21, 2011 Students Projected 12th
Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan
External Scan
July 21, 2011
Students
Projected 12th Grade Enrollments and High School Graduates,
2000-01 to 2019-20
California and Los Angeles County
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
CA excl LA 12th Grade
200,000
CA excl LA Grads
150,000
LA 12th Grade
100,000
LA Grads
50,000
0
Year
C. K-12 Institutional Performance Average API Scores in California and LAUSD, 2005-2010 API Score 740
C. K-12 Institutional Performance
Average API Scores in California and LAUSD, 2005-2010
API Score
740
720
700
680
Avg API California
Avg API LAUSD
660
640
620
600
580
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year

Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan External Scan July 21, 2011

D. Projected Enrollment in California Public Higher Education

CPEC California Community College Projected Enrollment Demand, 2009–2019

Headcount

College Projected Enrollment Demand, 2009–2019 Headcount Year Mid-Range Forecast, Public Higher Education

Year

Mid-Range Forecast, Public Higher Education Undergraduates, 2008–2019 Fall

Year

CCC

CSU

UC

Total

2008

1,823,516

362,226

172,775

2,358,517

2009

1,897,197

370,371

176,284

2,443,852

2010

1,969,143

378,910

179,960

2,528,013

2011

2,041,666

387,863

183,811

2,613,340

2012

2,060,953

397,253

187,850

2,646,056

2013

2,076,558

407,099

192,086

2,675,743

2014

2,090,152

417,442

196,448

2,704,042

2015

2,103,820

419,572

195,880

2,719,272

2016

2,113,684

419,405

194,621

2,727,710

2017

2,122,914

418,730

193,701

2,735,345

2018

2,130,174

417,309

193,254

2,740,737

2019

2,136,779

416,106

193,018

2,745,903

Percent

       

change

17.20%

14.90%

11.70%

16.40%

Additional

       

students

313,263

53,880

20,243

387,386

Source: www.cpec.ca.gov, Report 10-08, June

2010

Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan External Scan July 21, 2011

E. For-Profit Institutions

Number of degrees conferred by degree-granting institutions and percent change, by type of institution:

Academic years 1998–99 and 2008–09

Level of degree and academic year

Total

Public

 

Private

Total

Not-for-profit

For-profit

Number of degrees

 

Associate’s

1998–99

559,954

448,334

111,620

47,611

64,009

2008–09

787,325

596,098

191,227

46,929

144,298

Percent change

40.6

33.0

71.3

-1.4

125.4

Bachelor’s

1998–99

1,200,303

790,287

410,016

393,680

16,336

2008–09

1,601,368

1,020,435

580,933

496,260

84,673

Percent change

33.4

29.1

41.7

26.1

418.3

Source: Aud, S., Hussar, W., Kena, G., Bianco, K., Frohlich, L., Kemp, J., Tahan, K. (2011). The Condition of Education 2011 (NCES 2011-033). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan External Scan July 21, 2011

III. Employment and Labor Force

A. Los Angeles County Industry Employment Projections

       

%

2011

2017

Change

Change

Goods Producing

622,224

600,466

-21,758

-3.5%

Manufacturing

400,147

365,294

-34,853

-8.7%

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

18,675

25,418

 

6,743

36.1%

Construction

194,725

201,728

 

7,003

3.6%

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

8,677

8,026

 

-651

-7.5%

Service Providing

4,871,707

5,273,214

401,507

8.2%

Educational and Health Services

699,969

801,248

101,279

14.5%

Health Care and Social Assistance

542,060

621,775

 

79,715

14.7%

Educational Services

157,909

179,473

 

21,564

13.7%

Leisure and Hospitality

556,381

595,715

 

39,334

7.1%

Accommodation and Food Services

358,258

377,454

 

19,196

5.4%

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

198,123

218,261

 

20,138

10.2%

Government

577,687

612,174

 

34,487

6.0%

State and Local Government

529,658

562,034

 

32,376

6.1%

Federal Government

48,029

50,140

 

2,111

4.4%

Professional and Business Services

870,894

941,980

 

71,086

8.2%

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

363,866

390,653

 

26,787

7.4%

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

451,305

504,371

 

53,066

11.8%

Management of Companies and Enterprises

55,723

46,956

 

-8,767

-15.7%

Information

234,581

243,755

 

9,174

3.9%

Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries

139,537

148,195

 

8,658

6.2%

Broadcasting (except Internet)

22,199

23,540

 

1,341

6.0%

Data Processing, Hosting and Related Services

7,814

8,232

 

418

5.3%

Publishing Industries (except Internet)

21,528

21,281

 

-247

-1.1%

Telecommunications

34,107

31,929

 

-2,178

-6.4%

Other Information Services

9,396

10,578

 

1,182

12.6%

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

984,926

1,027,885

 

42,959

4.4%

Wholesale Trade

257,848

279,004

 

21,156

8.2%

Transportation and Warehousing

213,819

220,932

 

7,113

3.3%

Retail Trade

499,734

513,187

 

13,453

2.7%

Utilities

13,525

14,762

 

1,237

9.1%

Financial Activities

540,308

595,942

 

55,634

10.3%

Finance and Insurance

265,822

295,163

 

29,341

11.0%

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

274,486

300,779

 

26,293

9.6%

Other Services (except Public Administration)

406,961

454,515

 

47,554

11.7%

Repair and Maintenance

65,613

64,583

 

-1,030

-1.6%

Personal and Laundry Services

78,090

85,238

 

7,148

9.2%

Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations

77,179

78,268

 

1,089

1.4%

Private Households

186,079

226,426

 

40,347

21.7%

Total

5,493,931

5,873,680

379,749

6.9%

Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan External Scan July 21, 2011

College District Strategic Plan External Scan July 21, 2011 B. Los Angeles County Job Projections by

B. Los Angeles County Job Projections by Degree Required

       

2011 to

%2011

Education Level

2011 Jobs

2017 Jobs

2020 Jobs

2020

to 2020

Postsecondary vocational award

336,153

371,694

384,504

48,351

14.38%

Associate's degree

152,784

171,008

180,251

27,467

17.98%

Bachelor's degree

821,565

907,225

945,541

123,976

15.09%

Master's degree

66,401

74,190

77,361

10,960

16.51%

Doctoral degree

70,456

79,998

84,306

13,850

19.66%

Degree plus work experience

300,350

319,532

328,447

28,097

9.35%

First professional degree

85,158

92,330

95,085

9,927

11.66%

Total

1,832,867

2,015,977

2,095,495

262,628

14.33%

Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan External Scan July 21, 2011

California Labor Market Gaps by Educational Level

21, 2011 California Labor Market Gaps by Educational Level Jobs requiring a postsecondary vocational award or

Jobs requiring a postsecondary vocational award or Associate’s degree, ranked by the size of the expected increase in number of jobs from 2011 to 2017:

           

2011

2011

2017

Change

%

Median

Jobs

Jobs

Change

Hourly

Rank

Postsecondary vocational award jobs

 

Wage

1

Real estate sales agents

89,755

102,190

12,435

13.85%

$9.48

2

Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants

37,848

42,934

5,086

13.44%

$12.24

3

Medical secretaries

22,285

25,586

3,301

14.81%

$15.11

4

Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses

21,469

24,295

2,826

13.16%

$22.83

5

Hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists

13,646

15,501

1,855

13.59%

$16.54

6

Preschool teachers, except special education

16,599

18,327

1,728

10.41%

$12.70

7

Fitness trainers and aerobics instructors

8,642

10,227

1,585

18.34%

$15.26

8

Appraisers and assessors of real estate

10,723

12,113

1,390

12.96%

$14.08

9

Legal secretaries

11,062

11,852

790

7.14%

$23.82

10

Travel agents

5,271

5,885

614

11.65%

$16.01

11

Massage therapists

3,740

4,315

575

15.37%

$20.77

12

Gaming dealers

3,439

3,915

476

13.84%

$8.95

13

Emergency medical technicians and paramedics

2,887

3,350

463

16.04%

$13.72

14

Surgical technologists

2,603

3,021

418

16.06%

$21.15

Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan External Scan July 21, 2011

           

2011

2011

2017

Change

%

Median

Jobs

Jobs

Change

Hourly

Rank

Postsecondary vocational award jobs

 

Wage

15

Healthcare technologists and technicians, all other

4,219

4,627

408

9.67%

$19.61

16

Automotive service technicians and mechanics

18,747

19,074

327

1.74%

$21.43

17

Manicurists and pedicurists

4,259

4,581

322

7.56%

$11.31

18

Healthcare practitioners and technical workers, all other

2,227

2,486

259

11.63%

$30.55

19

Slot key persons

1,522

1,780

258

16.95%

$9.91

20

Skin care specialists

1,327

1,557

230

17.33%

$17.09

21

Medical transcriptionists

4,617

4,805

188

4.07%

$15.58

22

Barbers

1,218

1,398

180

14.78%

$21.96

23

Library technicians

2,125

2,263

138

6.49%

$18.49

24

Bus and truck mechanics and diesel engine specialists

5,248

5,376

128

2.44%

$22.43

25

Mobile heavy equipment mechanics, except engines

3,541

3,662

121

3.42%

$32.16

Jobs requiring an Associate’s degree, ranked by the size of the expected increase in number of jobs from 2011 to 2017:

 
           

2011

2011

2017

Change

%

Median

Jobs

Jobs

Change

Hourly

Rank

Associate's degree jobs

 

Wage

1

Registered nurses

62,450

72,192

9,742

15.60%

$38.25

2

Paralegals and legal assistants

9,115

10,188

1,073

11.77%

$27.81

3

Computer support specialists

14,972

15,741

769

5.14%

$21.90

4

Medical and clinical laboratory technicians

4,936

5,542

606

12.28%

$18.38

5

Respiratory therapists

3,630

4,211

581

16.01%

$30.96

6

Medical records and health information technicians

4,507

5,077

570

12.65%

$16.33

7

Radiologic technologists and technicians

4,362

4,881

519

11.90%

$29.09

8

Dental hygienists

3,340

3,852

512

15.33%

$40.27

9

Computer specialists, all other

7,605

8,104

499

6.56%

$34.39

10

Interior designers

3,893

4,315

422

10.84%

$20.32

11

Veterinary technologists and technicians

1,677

2,066

389

23.20%

$15.96

12

Biological technicians

1,849

2,180

331

17.90%

$19.69

13

Fashion designers

3,750

3,995

245

6.53%

$29.47

Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan External Scan July 21, 2011

           

2011

2011

2017

Change

%

Median

Jobs

Jobs

Change

Hourly

Rank

Associate's degree jobs

 

Wage

14

Physical therapist assistants

906

1,113

207

22.85%

$25.97

15

Geological and petroleum technicians

535

736

201

37.57%

$21.39

16

Diagnostic medical sonographers

1,580

1,775

195

12.34%

$33.67

17

Cardiovascular technologists and technicians

1,024

1,201

177

17.29%

$30.23

18

Life, physical, and social science technicians, all other

1,507

1,675

168

11.15%

$19.53

19

Occupational therapist assistants

631

760

129

20.44%

$24.79

20

Civil engineering technicians

1,822

1,937

115

6.31%

$31.72

21

Radiation therapists

607

718

111

18.29%

$44.15

22

Broadcast technicians

2,246

2,351

105

4.67%

$16.26

23

Environmental science and protection technicians, including health

705

803

98

13.90%

$25.25

24

Engineering technicians, except drafters, all other

1,952

2,010

58

2.97%

$30.36

25

Social science research assistants

516

570

54

10.47%

$19.17

Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan External Scan July 21, 2011

C. Unemployment Rates in Los Angeles and California, 2000 – 2010

Unemployment Rates: 2000 ‐ 2010 14.0% 12.0% Los Angeles County 10.0% California 8.0% 6.0% 4.0%
Unemployment Rates: 2000 ‐ 2010
14.0%
12.0%
Los Angeles County
10.0%
California
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Year
Unemployment Rate

IV. Policies and Initiatives

Student Progress & Achievement Rate (SPAR)*

2009-10

East Los Angeles College

44.5

Los Angeles City College

42.0

Los Angeles Harbor College

49.0

Los Angeles Mission College

43.0

Los Angeles Pierce College

52.0

Los Angeles Southwest College

40.3

Los Angeles Trade Technical College

36.4

Los Angeles Valley College

51.0

West Los Angeles College

46.4

State Average

53.6

*Percentage of first-time students who showed intent to complete and who achieved any of the following outcomes within six years: Transferred to a four-year college; or earned an AA/AS; or earned a Certificate (18 units or more); or achieved "Transfer Directed" status; or achieved "Transfer Prepared" status.

Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan External Scan July 21, 2011

Progress Of Fall 2007 Cohort Students Placed in Basic Skills Math

By Student Ethnicity, Over 3 Years 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
By Student Ethnicity, Over 3 Years
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Enrolled in
Recommended
Course in the First
Year
Completed First
Course in the First
Year
Passed
Passed
Elementary
Intermediate
Algebra
Algebra
Passed College
Algebra / Transfer
Level Math
Asian
Black
Hispanic
White
   

Amer

 

Ind/

Other

Non-

All

Asian

Black

Hispanic

White

White

Students

Enrolled in Recommended Course in the First Year

67.6%

62.4%

73.7%

62.3%

57.4%

69.8%

Completed First Course in the First Year

50.6%

26.4%

43.5%

44.9%

40.6%

41.6%

Passed Elementary Algebra

47.2%

18.5%

36.8%

46.8%

43.9%

36.2%

Passed Intermediate Algebra

30.6%

7.3%

19.7%

26.3%

19.4%

19.5%

Passed College Algebra / Transfer Level Math

17.7%

3.1%

9.1%

12.0%

8.4%

9.2%