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Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor

OPTIMIZING CLOUD SEEDING FOR WATER AND ENERGY IN CALIFORNIA

Prepared For:

California Energy Commission


Public Interest Energy Research Program

Prepared By: Steven M. Hunter, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

March 2007 CEC-500-2007-008

PIER FINAL PROJECT REPORT

Prepared By: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Technical Service Center Steven M. Hunter Denver, Colorado Commission Contract No. Insert: # 500-99-013 Commission Work Authorization No: 103

Prepared For: Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program California Energy Commission

Beth Chambers Joe OHagan Contract Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Lead Energy-Related Environmental Research Laurie ten Hope Office Manager Energy Systems Research Martha Krebs Deputy Director ENERGY RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

DISCLAIMER
This report was prepared as the result of work sponsored by the California Energy Commission. It does not necessarily represent the views of the Energy Commission, its employees or the State of California. The Energy Commission, the State of California, its employees, contractors and subcontractors make no warrant, express or implied, and assume no legal liability for the information in this report; nor does any party represent that the uses of this information will not infringe upon privately owned rights. This report has not been approved or disapproved by the California Energy Commission nor has the California Energy Commission passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of the information in this report.

Acknowledgments
TheCaliforniaEnergyCommission(EnergyCommission),throughthePublicInterestEnergy Research(PIER)program,providedfundingforthisworkthroughsubcontractC0535.Iwish tothankJoeOHaganoftheEnergyCommissionfortechnicalandadministrativeguidance. RobFarber(SCE)andByronMarler(PG&E),alongwithOHagan,haveprovidedthe foundationforthiseffortthroughstewardshipoftheCaliforniaCloudSeedingOptimization Group(AppendixA).Thefollowingmembersofthisgroupprovidedhelpfulreviewsofthis paper:BrianMcGurty,ArlinSuper,JimHeimbach,DonGriffith,BernieSilverman,Maury Roos,ArlenHuggins,BillWoodley,ByronMarler,andRobFarber.Iamdeeplyindebtedtomy fellowWDMPteammember,JonMedina,forhisnumerousinsightsintoweathermodification andstatistics. Pleasecitethisreportasfollows: Hunter,StevenM.(U.S.BureauofReclamation).2007.OptimizingCloudSeedingforWaterand EnergyinCalifornia.CaliforniaEnergyCommission,PIEREnergyRelatedEnvironmental ResearchProgram.CEC5002007008.

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Preface
ThePublicInterestEnergyResearch(PIER)Programsupportspublicinterestenergyresearch anddevelopmentthatwillhelpimprovethequalityoflifeinCaliforniabybringing environmentallysafe,affordable,andreliableenergyservicesandproductstothemarketplace. ThePIERProgram,managedbytheCaliforniaEnergyCommission(EnergyCommission), conductspublicinterestresearch,development,anddemonstration(RD&D)projectstobenefit California. ThePIERProgramstrivestoconductthemostpromisingpublicinterestenergyresearchby partneringwithRD&Dentities,includingindividuals,businesses,utilities,andpublicor privateresearchinstitutions. PIERfundingeffortsarefocusedonthefollowingRD&Dprogramareas:

BuildingsEndUseEnergyEfficiency EnergyInnovationsSmallGrants EnergyRelatedEnvironmentalResearch EnergySystemsIntegration EnvironmentallyPreferredAdvancedGeneration Industrial/Agricultural/WaterEndUseEnergyEfficiency RenewableEnergyTechnologies Transportation

OptimizingCloudSeedingforWaterandEnergyinCaliforniaisthefinalreportfortheWhitePaper forCloudSeedingOptimizationinCaliforniaproject(contractnumber50099013),conducted bytheU.S.BureauofReclamation.TheinformationfromthisprojectcontributestoPIERs EnergyRelatedEnvironmentalResearchProgram. FormoreinformationaboutthePIERProgram,pleasevisittheEnergyCommissionswebsiteat www.energy.ca.gov/pierorcontacttheEnergyCommissionat9166545164.

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Table of Contents
Preface.................................................................................................................................................. iii Abstract ............................................................................................................................................... vii ExecutiveSummary ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.0 1.1. 1.2. 1.3. 2.0 2.1. 2.1.1. 2.2. 2.2.1. 2.2.2. 2.2.3. 2.3. 2.3.1. 2.3.2. 2.3.3. 2.4. 2.5. 2.6. 3.0 4.0 AppendixA.PrioritizedCloudSeedingResearchNeedsforCalifornia TheImpactofCloudSeedingonCaliforniasWaterandEnergySituation ............... 3 RelevanceandNeed .......................................................................................................3 ContributionandLimitationsofCloudSeedingProjects .........................................5 FactorsAffectingSeedingEffectiveness ......................................................................7 What Current Knowledge and Future Applied Research Can Do to Optimize Cloud Seeding.................................................................................................................................. 11 Whatiscloudseeding?...................................................................................................11 DoesSeedingWorkandHowMuchMoreWaterCanItProduce? .................. 13 TheStateofWeatherModificationanditsCapabilities ............................................13 CurrentKnowledgeandRemainingChallenges.................................................. 13 AreThereAnyAdverseImpacts? .......................................................................... 16 AnticipatedDevelopmentsandtheirRelevancetoCalifornia ........................... 18 PossibleMethodsandEvaluationFramework ...........................................................19 TransportandDiffusionofSeedingMaterialsModelingandObservations. 20 SeedingTechnologiesandEffectiveness ............................................................... 21 EvaluationTechniques ............................................................................................. 22 BenefitsandCostsVersusOtherWaterAugmentationTechnologies ....................24 ProposedTasksandSequence.......................................................................................25 Recommendations...........................................................................................................26 References............................................................................................................................. 27 Glossary ................................................................................................................................ 33

List of Figures
Figure1.MapofexpectedwaterconflictareasfromWater2025website(DoI2003) .................... 4 Figure2.MapofoperationalseedingprojectsinCaliforniaasofwinter20042005,alongwith projectsponsors.......................................................................................................................................... 6 Figure3.MultispectralanalysisofsatelliteimagefromNOAA16polarorbitingsatelliteon11 January 2005. The colors are derived from redgreenblue combinations based on coding variouscombinationsofvisiblereflectance,temperature,andcloudtopeffectiveradius(sizeof cloudhydrometeors).Yellowwhiteareasarecloudscomposedofmanysmallerhydrometeors, typical of continental clouds that are less likely to produce precipitation by the coalescence process.Reddishareasarecloudsthathavemoremaritimepristinestructure,withfewerbut larger hydrometeors, thereby more likely to generate precipitation. Plots on the right correspondtothenumberedareasonthesatelliteimageandshowsizesofparticlesoreffective radius r (on xaxis, in micrometers) vs. temperature in C (on yaxis). Note that area 2, downwindofLosAngeles,hasmuchsmallerparticlesrthaninothermorepristineareas......... 8 Figure4.Basicsilveriodideseedingprocessfromgroundgenerators............................................ 12 Figure5.Planview(left)and3Dperspectiveview(right)ofWalkerRiverBasinfromthe southwest.Shownaresimulatedseededparticleplumesfromfourgeneratorsites(eachwitha differentcolor).ThesimulationsweredonewithaDesertResearchInstitutedispersionmodel. TheWalkerBasinstraddlestheCalifornia/NevadaborderandiseastoftheSierraNevada, whichisoutlinedbythewhiteareas(Hugginsetal.2005a) ............................................................ 15

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Abstract

The origins of this work trace to a group of professionals from utility companies, water management agencies, and weather modification (WM) scientists. This group was convened in 2005 at the California Energy Commission (Energy Commission) to discuss the current state of WM (cloud seeding) in California and the need to improve that state. WM has been conducted in the Sierra Nevada Mountains to increase water from snowpack since the 1950s, to the benefit of irrigated agriculture, hydroelectric power, recreation, municipal and industrial water users, and water quality. The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) conservative estimates that the combined state seeding projects generate 300,000 to 400,000 acre-feet of water annually. This report examines the current state of winter cloud seeding in general and its practice in California in particular, so as to make recommendations for optimization. Included are a problem statement, WM history, its current state of advancement and obstacles to understanding, benefit/cost ratios achievable versus other water augmentation technologies, and its optimization potential using the latest scientific and technical knowledge. Solutions to problems are offered and evaluated, and recommendations are made for applied research, funding and frameworks toward optimization. The report is intended to inform and provide decision assistance to policy makers in energy, water resources, government, agriculture, environment, recreation, and other sectors of California.
Keywords:Weathermodification,cloudseeding,snowpackenhancement,precipitation increase,electricityproduction,watersupplies,agriculture,irrigation,recreation

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Executive Summary
Operationalweathermodification(cloudseeding)hasbeenconductedinCaliforniasincethe early1950soneofthelongestrecordsofseedingintheworld.Cloudseedinghasbeen conductedinmanyareas,butthemostcontinuousprogramshavebeeninwinteroverthe SierraNevada.Thisseedinghasbeenintendedtoaugmentsnowfallandsnowpack.The additionalsnowpackmeltsandrunsoff,providingmorewaterforvarioususessuchas hydroelectricpower,agriculture,municipalandindustrialneeds,recreation,andendangered specieshabitat.TheCaliforniaDepartmentofWaterResources(DWR)hasconservatively estimateda4percentannualprecipitationincreaseattributabletothecombined state seeding projects. Seedingofmountaincloudsinwinteristhemostscientificallycredibleformofintentional largescaleweathermodification(WM).Thisstrongconclusionissupportedbyseveral professionalscientificorganizations,includingtheAmericanMeteorologicalSocietyandthe WorldMeteorologicalOrganization.Theconclusionisbaseduponstatisticalevidencethatsuch seeding,ifproperlydesignedandconducted,canaugmentseasonalprecipitationbyabout 10percent.AmajorobjectiveofthisreportistosurveythecurrentstateoftheWMfieldsoas torecommendapproachestooptimizeCaliforniasseedingprograms.Suchoptimizationmight increasetheeffectivenessofthoseprograms,fromthecurrent4percentyieldtowardthisgoal of10percent. Thereportdescribesthefollowingcharacteristicsofwinterweathermodification:

ItsrelevanceandneedinCalifornia. Itshistoryandcurrentstate. Itsenvironmentalandhealthimpacts. Itsdownwindeffectsonprecipitation. Itscostsandpotentialbenefits,relativetootherwateraugmentationtechnologies.

Pastresearchhasdemonstratedthatcloudseedingposesminimalenvironmentalandhealth risksandthatthereisalmostnoevidencefordecreasesinprecipitationdownwindofseeding targetareas. Theprincipalconclusionsofthisreportarethat:

Cloudseedingismuchlessexpensivethanotherwateraugmentationtechnologies andhaslargebenefittocostratios.Therefore,seedingisanattractiveoptiontohelp alleviatewatersupplyproblems.PopulationgrowthinCaliforniawillcausewater demandstoregularlyoutstripwatersuppliesinthenearfuture,especiallyduring inevitabledroughts.Thereisevidencethatthecurrentperiodofatmosphericwarming and/orairpollutionmaybedecreasingnaturalsnowfalland,therefore,freshwater supplies.Unlessstepsaretaken,thesesituationswillexacerbateconflictsandinstigate litigationoverthosesupplies.

Appliedresearchisneededtooptimizetheeffectivenessofoperationalseeding programsinthestate.Thisappliedresearchwouldquantitativelymeasurecloud seedingeffectivenessandidentifyanyimpedimentstogreatereffectiveness.Theresults wouldleadtochangesthatcanoptimizeseedingpractices.Theapproachwillsurvey thelatestscientificadvancesincloudphysics,remotesensing,atmosphericscience, seedingtechnologies,andevaluationstrategiesandthenrecommendthebestcoursesof actiontomaximizethecontributionofoperationalcloudseedingprogramstothestates watersupplies.Itisrecommendedthatthoseprogramsmaintainanappliedresearch componentsothatthelatestscientificandtechnologicaladvancesmayberapidly incorporatedonanongoingbasis.

1.0 The Impact of Cloud Seeding on Californias Water and Energy Situation
1.1. Relevance and Need
Californiarecentlysufferedanenergycrisis,andpredictionsarethatsuchcriseswillbe repeatedunlesssignificantpreventativestepsaretaken.Thesupplyanddeliveryofelectric powerinandaroundCaliforniaareaffectedbyeconomic,political,andphysicaldelivery factors.Thehydroelectricsectorhasbeenadverselyimpactedbyseveralyearsofbelownormal precipitation.InCaliforniaonaverage,15%ofelectricalpowerisderivedfromhydroelectric generation(CEC2005)anditisthecheapestsourceofpowerinthestate.Theabilityof hydroelectricpowercompaniestoproducepowertomeettheneedsofCaliforniaandother westernstatesisheavilydependentonsnowpackrunofffromtheSierraNevadaandother mountainranges(primarilythosewhosesnowpackfeedstheColumbiaandColoradoRivers). ThemajorityofprecipitationthatfeedsWesternhydrologicalreserves(mainlyreservoirs) occursduringthecoolseason,intheformofsnowfall.Freshwaterfromsnowpackmeltisalso criticalforagriculture,recreation,municipalandindustrialwaterusers,wildlifeandfish habitat,andwaterquality. Californiaalreadyexperiencesfreshwatershortagesindryyears.Severalrecentstudiesproject inadequatesupplieseveninnormalyearsofthenearfuture,primarilybecauseofincreasing demands.TheAssociationofCaliforniaWaterAgencies(ACWA)predictsthatthestatewillbe chronicallyshortofwaterby2010,unlessstepsaretakennowtoimproveitswatersupply system(ACWA2006). ThedirectoroftheCaliforniaDepartmentofWaterResources(DWR) recentlysaidthatthestatewillneedatleasttwomillionacrefeetofwatereachyearby2030to meetthedemandsofagrowingpopulation(Shaw2006). Similarly, theBureauofReclamation (Reclamation)Water2025programstatesthatconsumptiveuseofwaterintheWestcontinues togrowrapidly,largelybecauseofsustainedurbangrowth(DoI2003).Thissituationhas alreadycausedmajorwaterconflicts,evenduringnormalwatersupply(nondrought)periods, andisexpectedtoworsenunlesssignificantactionistaken.Theexpectedconflictareas identifiedbytheWater2025programareshownbyFigure1.Muchofthewatersupplyin southernCaliforniacomesfromtheColoradoRiver,whosebasinwasinadroughtfrom1999to 2005.LakePowell,whichservesasawaterbankduringdrought,hadApril2005reservoir storageat33%ofcapacity.Thiswasthelowestthelakehadbeensince1969(Bureauof Reclamation2006).Unfortunately,droughtisanormalpartoftheclimatecycleinthearidWest, andresearchhasshownthatfarmoresevereandlengthydroughtshaveoccurredthantheone ofthelastsixyears(USGS2004). Perhapsmoredisturbingly,therehavebeenwidespreaddeclinesinwesternNorthAmericas April1mountainsnowpacksincemidcentury(Moteetal.2005).Theauthorsofthis investigationpointtoseveralclimatestudiessuggestingthatthistrendwillcontinueandeven accelerate.Theskiindustryisconcernedthatlesssnowfromwarmingcouldseriouslyimpact theiroperations,andclimatemodelsindicatethatthelowestelevationWesternresortswould

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Figure 1. Map of expected water conflict areas from Water 2025 website (DoI 2003)

behurtfirst(RockyMountainNews2005).Arecentreport(SaundersandMaxwell2005) declaresthatclimatedisruptionintheWestisalreadyunderwayandwilllikelyresultinmore heat,lesssnowpack,andearliersnowmeltandrunoff.Otherrelatedimpactscouldinclude moreevaporationanddroughts,lessgroundwater,andmorefloodcontrolreleases. Thereareseveralwaystoamelioratetheloomingcrisesbyaugmentingwatersupplies.One suchwayisweathermodification,commonlycalledcloudseeding.Californiaisnotaloneina recentresurgenceofinterestinweathermodification.OnAugust25,2005,thesevenColorado RiverBasinstatesaddressedalettertotheSecretaryoftheInteriorinwhichtheyannounced agreementonthedevelopmentofmanagementstrategiesforoperatingLakesPowellandMead underlowreservoir(drought)conditions.Thestatessaidthattheywishtoworkwiththe DepartmentoftheInterior(DoI)toimplementacloudseedingprograminthebasin.The MetropolitanWaterDistrictofSouthernCalifornia(MWD)recentlyaddedtheirsupportfor cloudseedingasonewaytoaugmentflowsintheriver(Ryan2005).Billswereintroduced beforetheUnitedStatesHouseofRepresentatives(HR2995)andSenate(S517),proposinga nationwideweathermodificationresearchprogram.Suchaprogramwasrecommendedbya NationalResearchCouncil(NRC)reportonweathermodificationresearch(NationalResearch Council2003),aresponsetotheNRCreportbytheWeatherModificationAssociation(WMA) (Orvilleetal.2004),andanarticleonthefutureofweathermodification(List2004).The WesternStatesWaterCouncil,whichisaccountabletotheWesternGovernorsAssociation, madeapolicystatementinJuly2005endorsingthenationalprogramandCongressionalbills. Theremainderofthispaperwilldiscussthestateofweathermodificationanditspotentialfor augmentingwatersuppliesinCaliforniaandtheWest.

1.2.

Contribution and Limitations of Cloud Seeding Projects

CloudseedinghasbeenconductedinCaliforniaforover55years,oneofthelongestrecordsof operationalweathermodificationanywhereintheworld.Theearliestprogramwasatthe BishopCreekwatershedintheeasternSierrain1948,sponsoredbytheCaliforniaElectric PowerCompany,nowSouthernCaliforniaEdison(SCE)(Henderson2004).TheLakeAlmanor andMokelumneprojectsofPacificGasandElectric(PG&E)(Marler1992)andUpperSan JoaquinprojectofSCEhavebothoperatedforoverfiftyyears.TheSantaBarbaraoperational precipitationenhancementproject(Griffithetal.2005)beganin1950,withsomeresearch phasesbetween19571960and19671974.OtherprogramshavebeenoperatedinLosAngeles andMontereycounties. MostseedinginCaliforniahasbeenintendedtoincreasemountainsnowpackforgreater hydroelectricpowergeneration,althoughsomeoftheadditionalwaterhasbeentargetedforthe stateshugeurbanandagriculturalsectors.Theprojectshavebeenprincipallylocatedinthe SierraNevadaandhaveusedgroundbasedsilveriodideastheseedingagentinorographic (mountain)clouds.Inafewinstances,liquidpropaneorhygroscopicmaterialswereusedfor seeding,whileaircraftseedinghasbeendoneundercertainconditions(Henderson2004).The numberofoperatingprojectsinCaliforniahastendedtoincreaseduringdroughts,upto20in 1991,buthasleveledofftoabout12or13.SeeFigure2forarecentprojectmap.

PROJECT SPONSOR: 1. Lake Almanor - PG&E 2. Tahoe-Truckee - Desert Research Institute (DRI) 3. Upper American River Sacramento Municipal Utility District 4. Upper Mokelumne River PG&E 5. Carson and Walker Rivers DRI 6. Tuolumne River - Turlock and Modesto Irrigation District 7. San Joaquin River - SCE 8. Eastern Sierra Los Angeles Department of Water and Power 9. Kings River - Kings River Conservation District 10. Kaweah River -Kaweah Delta Water Conservation District 11. Kern River - North Kern Water Storage District 12. Santa Barbara County Santa Barbara County 13. Monterey County Monterey County
Figure 2. Map of operational seeding projects in California as of winter 20042005, along with project sponsors Norigorous,comprehensivestudyhasbeenmadeofallCaliforniaprecipitationenhancement projects.Partofthereasonforthisisthedifficultyinselectingsuitablecontrolbasinsunaffected byseeding,yetwhosenaturalprecipitationorstreamflowarehighlycorrelatedwiththetarget. Asuitableselectionfacilitatescomparisonofthecontrolandnearbytargetareausingstatistics (Dennis1980).Unfortunately,windvariationsintheSierracancauseseedingplumetransport andspilloverofseedingeffectsintoadjoiningareas.Targetcontrolcomparisonsbasedonthe commonstatisticalmethodofhistoricalregressionalsoassumethattheclimatehasbeenstable overmanydecades,apotentialproblemdiscussedfurtherinSection2.3.3.Somestudiesof individualprojectshavebeenmade,suchastheKingsRiverproject,andhaveshownincreases inwater.AtmosphericsInc.ofFresnohaspreparednumerousannualevaluationreportsfor

severalcentralSierraprojects.Thesereportsshowlongtermincreasesinstreamflowvia multipleregressionanalysis,includingasixpercentincreasefrom19541964ontheKingsRiver (Henderson1966;Henderson2003).Yearbyyearanalysesofstreamflowhaveshownboth positiveandnegativeeffectsinseededbasins,however,suggestinglimitationsofthismethod andtheselectedcontrolareastreams.AstudyoftheLakeAlmanorprojectusinganetworkof precipitationgagesintargetandcontrolareasfoundstatisticallysignificantincreasesin precipitationduringcertainstormtypes(MooneyandLunn1969).Thisprecipitationgage networkwascostlytooperateandhasbeeneliminatedfromthecurrentproject.Ithasbeen conservativelyestimatedthatalltheCaliforniaseedingprojectsgenerateanadditional4%or 300,000400,000acrefeetofwaterannually(DWR2005).

1.3.

Factors Affecting Seeding Effectiveness

Thefactorsaffectingcloudseedingsabilitytoaugmentwatersuppliesaremanifoldand complex,butmaybeclassifiedasenvironmentalandhuman.Majorenvironmentalfactors include:Atmosphericvariablesliketemperature,moisture,wind,stability,cloudphysics,and naturalnuclei;geographicvariablessuchastopography(slopeandaspect),soilmoistureand infiltrationcharacteristics,vegetativecover,spatialdistributionofthesnowpackincluding exposuretosolarradiation,andevapotranspiration.Importanthumanfactorsinclude:Seeding technologieslikeseedingagentformulationandgeneratoroutputrate;locations,timingand durationofagentrelease(includingairborneorgroundbased)relativetotheatmospheric variables.Thecomplexandinterdependentrelationshipsbetweenthesevariablesmake achievementofseedingeffectivenessadauntingtask,andthemodesofsuccessinonelocaledo notguaranteesuccessinanother.Moreover,theclimateitselfmaybechanging,castingdoubt onwhetherseedingmethodsthatwereeffective2030yearsagoarestillso.Forexample,there isconsiderableevidencethatatmosphericwarmingwillcontinue(SaundersandMaxwell2005). Silveriodide,whichisthemostcommoncloudseedingagent,isonlyeffectiveattemperatures ofabout5Corcolder,soatmosphericwarmingcouldbedecreasingthefrequencyofsuitable cloudsand,therefore,opportunitiesforgroundbasedseeding. Anotherpossibleimpactonseedingeffectivenessisrelatedtoanthropogeniceffectsonclouds.A longtermstudy(GivatiandRosenfeld2004)showedprecipitationlossesovertopographic barriersdownwindofmajorcoastalurbanareasinCaliforniaamountingto15%25%ofthe annualprecipitation.Theselossesoccurredduringthetwentiethcenturyinincreasingly pollutedareas,whereasnosuchtrendswereobservedinsimilarnearbypristineareas.The authorslaterinvestigated(GivatiandRosenfeld2005)anorographicenhancementfactorin Israel(ratioofprecipitationininlandhillyareasfrom5001000metersinelevation,tothatat upwindcoastsandplains)from19502002,segregatingseededandnonseededdays.They foundthat,asinCalifornia,increasingairpollutiondecreasedorographicprecipitation;the decreaseswereofsuchmagnitudeastocancelincreasesfromcloudseeding.Physicalevidence ofcloudandaerosolchangesinducedbyairpollutiondownwindofurbanareashasbeen documentedbysatellite(Rosenfeld2000;RosenfeldandLensky1998)andaircraft(Axisaetal. 2005)measurements.SeeFigure3foranexampleofthesatelliteanalysesinCalifornia.

Figure 3. Multi-spectral analysis of satellite image from NOAA-16 polar-orbiting satellite


on 11 January 2005. The colors are derived from red-green-blue combinations based on coding various combinations of visible reflectance, temperature, and cloud-top effective radius (size of cloud hydrometeors). Yellow-white areas are clouds composed of many smaller hydrometeors, typical of continental clouds that are less likely to produce precipitation by the coalescence process. Reddish areas are clouds that have more maritime pristine structure, with fewer but larger hydrometeors, thereby more likely to generate precipitation. Plots on the right correspond to the numbered areas on the satellite image and show sizes of particles or effective radius r (on x-axis, in micrometers) vs. temperature in C (on y-axis). Note that area 2, downwind of Los Angeles, has much smaller particles r than in other more pristine areas. Source: Daniel Rosenfeld, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, presented at 16th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification, San Diego, California, January 2005.

Becauseoftheramificationsoftheanthropogenicfindingsforhydroelectricpowergeneration inCalifornia,studiesofhowaerosolsaffectcloudsandprecipitationintheSierraNevadahave beencontinuedwithintheSuppressionofPrecipitation(SUPRECIP)Experiment.The SUPRECIP,whichisbeingfundedbythePublicInterestEnergyResearch(PIER)Programofthe CaliforniaEnergyCommission(EnergyCommission),hadmajorfieldcampaignsinthewinters of2005and2006.In2006,extensivemeasurementsweremadeinSierracloudswithawell equippedCheyenne2cloudphysicsaircraftandaCessna340(mostlycloudbase)aerosol aircraft.Measurementsweremadeindeep,mostlyglaciatedclouds,andinrelativelyshallow cloudswhoseliquidwaterwasmostlysupercooled(colderthanthefreezingpoint).Analysisof theuniqueSUPRECIPdatasetisunderway,towardthegoalofdocumentingtheeffectsof

aerosolsonSierracloudsandprecipitation.Thesedatashouldalsobeavaluableresourcefor optimizingcloudseedingintheregion. Theatmosphericeffectsoflongtermwarmingandurban/industrialairpollutionareonlytwo possibleinfluencesonseedingeffectiveness.Sincethe1950stherehavebeenvariationsin seedingmaterialsandtechnologies.Someseedinggeneratorlocationshavealsochanged. Thereforerecordsoftheseedingoperatorsmustbepreservedandexaminedforsuchchanges andanassessmentmadeoftheirpossibleconsequences.Ofcourseotherinfluences,relatedor unrelatedtotheonescitedabove,mayplayarole.

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2.0 What Current Knowledge and Future Applied Research Can Do to Optimize Cloud Seeding
2.1. What is cloud seeding?
TheprimarytypeofseedinginCaliforniahasbeenincoldseasonorographicclouds,sothat typewillbetheprincipalfocushere.Seedingtosuppresshailanddispersefogisroutinely conductedinotherstates.AccordingtotheNorthAmericanInterstateWeatherModification Council,therearepresentlyoperationalprogramsin11ofthe17Westernstates.Precipitation enhancementofwarmseasonconvectivecloudswithhygroscopicmaterials(substanceslike saltthattakeupatmosphericwater)hasshownpromise,buthasnotbeenusedmuchin California. ColdseasonorographiccloudsformasmoistairflowingfromthePacificbeginstoriserapidly asitreachesthewestern(windward)sideoftheSierraNevada.Thisriseresultsincooling, condensationand,often,precipitationaseitherrainorsnow.Inmanyinstanceswithinthese clouds,waterdropletsremainasliquidattemperaturesbelowthefreezingpoint(32F).Such dropletsmakeupsupercooledliquidwater(SLW)clouds,thepresenceofwhichleadstoaircraft icing.OnlyasmallfractionofSLWdropletsfreezeintoicecrystals,usuallythroughinteraction withtinywindblownparticlescalledicenuclei(IN).Thesecrystalsthengrowrapidlyatthe expenseofthemuchmorenumerousSLWdroplets,andcanattainsufficientsizetofalltothe groundassnowflakes.WhilenaturalINexistinnature,theireffectivenessislimitedunless SLWcloudtemperaturesarerelativelycold.Silveriodideandotherseedingagentscancreate icecrystalsatsignificantlywarmertemperatures.Cloudseedingcanthusinitiatesnowfall withinthistemperaturewindowofopportunity,whennatureisineffectiveatdoingso. Byfarthemostcommonseedingagentinthehistoryofweathermodificationhasbeensilver iodide(AgI),releasedasafinesmoke.Thiscompoundhasacrystallinestructurenearly identicaltoice,effectivelyprovidingINthatinteractwithwatervapororSLWdropletstoform tinyicecrystals.Figure4illustrateshowAgIseedingfromgroundgeneratorsworks.Themost effectiveAgInucleantscanbeginproducingicecrystalsattemperaturescolderthanabout5C. AnalternativeistochilltheairsufficientlysothattheSLWdropletsfreezewithoutnuclei.This

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Figure 4. Basic silver iodide seeding process from ground generators

chillingisaccomplishedthroughintroductionofdryiceorexpansionofliquidpropane(LP) intoagas.Liquidpropanecanbeginicecrystalformationat1Corcolder,expandingthe temperaturewindowofopportunity.WatervaporandSLWgenerallyincreasewithwarmer temperatures,soSLWisfrequentlymoreabundantwithinthisexpandedwindowfrom1Cto 5C.Therefore,muchSLWisnotconvertedtoprecipitationnaturallyandpassesdownwindof mountaincrests,whereitevaporates.Seedingagentsthatareeffectiveinthiswarmer, expandedtemperaturewindowareconsequentlyattractive,asrecognizedinthedesignofa majorLPseedingexperiment(Reynolds1996)intheNorthernSierraNevada.Whatevertheir initiationprocess,seededicecrystals,liketheirnaturalcounterparts,growrapidlyatthe expenseoftheSLWdroplets. Theforegoingdiscussiondealswiththecloudmicrophysicsassociatedwithseeding.Such microphysicalconditionsdependincomplicatedwaysonatmosphericdynamicsand thermodynamics.Alltheseconditionsareintimatelylinkedwithatmosphericmotionsona vastrangeofscales,fromplanetaryscalecirculationstosynoptic(weathermap)scales,to stormscalestosmallscaleturbulentmotions.Someunderstandingofallthesephenomenais necessarytodevelopaconceptualmodeloftheatmosphere,onwhicheffectiveseeding approachesdepend.Thisconceptualmodeliscontinuallyrevisedastheatmosphereisstudied andnewknowledgeattained.

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2.1.1. Does Seeding Work and How Much More Water Can It Produce?
Thereisevidencethatseedingoforographiccloudstoaugmentsnowfallismoreeffectivethan allothertypesofweathermodification(exceptforcoldfogsuppression,whichcertainly works).ThisclaimissupportedbyapolicystatementoftheAmericanMeteorologicalSociety (AMS)(AMS1998),aweathermodificationstatusstatementoftheWorldMeteorological Organization,theNRCreport(NRC2003),andtheWMA(Orvilleetal.2004).TheAMSfurther statesthatthereisstatisticalevidencethatsuchseedingcanproduceseasonalprecipitation increasesofabout10%. TheCaliforniaDWR(DWR2005)estimatesthatanadditional300,000to400,000acrefeetof watercouldpotentiallybeproducedannuallybymoreandimprovedcloudseedingin California.Thisincreasedamountofwaterwouldcomeatacostofabout$19peracrefoot. Manyofthebestprospectsforadditionalweathermodificationwaterincreasesareinthe SacramentoRiverbasin,inwatershedsthatarenotpresentlyseeded.Mostofthesouthern SierrabasinsintheSanJoaquinRiverandTulareLakeregionsarealreadyseeded(Figure2). WiththeexceptionoftheupperTrinityRiverwatershedandperhapstheRussianRiver,thereis littlenewpotentialintheNorthCoastregion,sincenotmuchextrarunoffcouldbecaptured becauseoflimitedstoragecapacity(DWR2005).Thereisalsopotentialtoincreasewater productionbyimprovingtheeffectivenessofexistingseedingprojects. Themainquestionishowbesttoachieveadditionalwaterthroughweathermodification.The physicalmechanismsdescribedinSection2.1arewelldocumented(Dennis1980).Although theNRCandWMAhavesomedisagreements,theyconcurthatwinterorographiccloud seedingispromisingfortheaforementionedincreasesandthatthereisaneedforafully randomizedstatisticalweathermodificationprogramtobuildonexistingoperationalprojects (Garstangetal.2005).Thisprogramwouldhavestrongobservationalandcomputermodeling components,andincorporatethelatestscienceandtechnology.Mostimportantly,theprogram wouldincreaseconfidenceinestimationofattainableseasonalsnowwaterequivalentincreases fromcloudseeding. Cloudseedingshouldnotbeviewedasadroughtfixtobeconductedonlyduringdry periods,sinceseedingopportunitiesarelessfrequentinsuchperiods.Seedingeveryyear, however,canaugmentsurfaceandgroundwaterstoragetoincreaseaveragesupplies,helping alleviatetheadverseimpactsofdrought.Weathermodificationshouldbeviewedasonetool inthetoolboxofwaterresourcemanagement.

2.2.

The State of Weather Modification and its Capabilities

2.2.1. Current Knowledge and Remaining Challenges


Successincloudseedingrequiressubstantialknowledgeofthephysicalprocessesinnatural cloudsandhowseedingmaterialschangethoseprocessestoaugmentprecipitation.Therehave beentwomajorresearchprojectsrelatedtocloudseedinginCalifornia.Thelargereffortwas theSierraCooperativePilotProject(SCPP),whichwasconductedbyReclamationandthestates ofCaliforniaandNevadabetween1977and1987.TheSCPP(ReynoldsandArnett1986) focusedonphysicalmechanismsaffectingSierraNevadaclouds,sothatsoundcloudseeding

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technologiescouldbedeveloped.Groundbasedandairbornesilveriodideseedingwasdone, alongwiththereleaseoftracermaterialstoassessthetransportanddiffusion(T&D)ofseeded plumes(Section2.3.1below).Majorfindingswere:SierraNevadastormsoftenhaverapidly changingphasesthataffectseedability;alowlevelbarrierjetstreamfrequentlycomplicates T&Dandtargetingofseedingmaterials;cloudsarefrequentlyefficientnaturalsnowfall producersbecauseofaprocessknownasicemultiplication;andmostoftheSLWthatisneeded forseedingtobeeffectiveiswithin3000feetoftheground,attemperatureswarmerthan10C (Marwitz1987;Reynolds1989;Rangno1986). Thesecondproject,theLakeOrovilleRunoffEnhancementProject(LOREP),wasperformedin thenorthernSierranearBeckwourth,California,from19911994.TheLOREPwasthefirst projectintheUnitedStatestouseLPgasastheseedingagent.ThechoiceofLPwasbasedon findingsofSLWexistenceatrelativelywarmtemperatures,sinceLPcanbemoreeffectiveat thosetemperatures(Section2.1).Seedingplumesweresuccessfullytrackedusingtracergases, andicecrystalswithinplumeswerealsostudied.TheLOREPwassuspendedafterthreeyears (shortoftheintendedfiveyears)becauseT&Dcausedproblemsintargetingseededicecrystals, necessitatingadesignchange.Theshorterdurationalsoprecludedstatisticallysignificant resultsfromtherandomizedpartoftheseedingexperiment.TherehasbeennoLP experimentationintheSierrasincetheLOREP.Nevertheless,theexistenceofsignificantSLW whentemperatureswerewarmerthan4Cwasconfirmedtooccurabout80%ofthetime (Reynolds1996). Severalreviewarticles(Rangno1986;Reynolds1988;Super1990)havestatedthatachieving adequateT&DforseedingSLWregionsisprobablythemostdifficultproblemfacingwinter orographiccloudseeding.Thiswasrecognizedasastillfundamentalprobleminamorerecent reviewarticle(Bruintjes1999)anditremainsanissueinCaliforniasoperationalprograms, althoughchemicaltracerexperimentsandplumedispersionmodelshaveimproved understanding.First,seedingmaterialsmustbetransportedinadequateconcentrationsto cloudregionswithsufficientSLWandpropertemperatures.Ifthatisachieved,thematerials mustthengenerateicecrystalsinsufficientconcentrationsinregionswherethecrystalscan growandfallout,producingsignificantsnowprecipitationinthedesiredtargetarea.Ifany processesinthisphysicalchainofeventsarenotsatisfied,theseedingwillnotsignificantly increaseprecipitationinthetarget.TracerexperimentshavebeenconductedbyPG&E,SCE, andtheDesertResearchInstitute(DRI).Theseexperimentshaverevealedsomeofthe complexitiesoftargetingseedingmaterials,giventhecomplicatedwindfieldsthatoccurwithin theSierraNevada(Figure5).Localwindsteeringbyvalleysandridges,flowblockagesby mountainpeaks,andotherdynamicmeteorologicaleffectscanshiftseedingmaterialandeffects toareasoutsidethetarget.Sometimestheshiftscanbetowardcontrolareas,adversely affectingevaluationefforts. Use of high-altitude ground-seeding devices, at least halfway up the

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15
Figure 5. Plan view (left) and 3-D perspective view (right) of Walker River Basin from the southwest. Shown are simulated seeded particle plumes from four generator sites (each with a different color). The simulations were done with a Desert Research Institute dispersion model. The Walker Basin straddles the California/Nevada border and is east of the Sierra Nevada, which is outlined by the white areas (Huggins et al. 2005a).

windwardslope,substantiallyreducestargetinguncertainties(Holroydetal.1988).In mountainrangeswithextensivewildernessareas,sitingofthosedevicescanbeproblematic, becausetheyarenotallowedinsuchareas. Knowledgeofcloudseedingwillcontinuetoadvancethroughbasicandappliedresearch,and throughseedingorrelatedhydrometeorologicalexperiments.Californiacanbenefitfrom ongoingresearchprojects;particularlythosebeingconductedinthestate.Anexcellentexample istheHydrometeorologicalTestbed(HMT)program,expectedtobeconductedintheAmerican RiverBasinfrom20062011(NOAA2006).Thisbasinoverlapsorisneartoexistingweather modificationprogramsintheUpperAmerican,TahoeTruckee,CarsonWalker,andUpper MokelumneBasins.TheHMTprogramwilldeploytransportableandmobilescanning precipitationradars,windprofilingradars,precipitationprofilingradars,andglobal positioningsystem(GPS)sensorsformeasuringprecipitablewatervapor.Additional instrumentswillincludeprecipitationgauges,raindropdisdrometers,surfacemeteorological stations,soilmoisture/temperatureprobes,radiosondes,andstreamlevelloggers.TheHMT willprovideawealthofdataimportanttoweathermodificationinCalifornia,anditis advisablethatfutureeffortstooptimizeoperationalseedingprogramsestablishacollaborative andsynergisticdataexchangewiththeHMTprogramandotherslikeit.TheHMT,however, willnotinvolvecloudseedingandsocannotprovideanswerstoalltheremainingquestions facingweathermodificationinCaliforniaandelsewhere.

2.2.2. Are There Any Adverse Impacts?


Questionsaboutpotentialunintendedimpactsfromcloudseedinghavebeenraisedand addressedthroughoutthehistoryofweathermodification.Commonconcernsare: (1)downwindeffectsthatis,enhancingprecipitationinoneareaattheexpenseofthose downwind(RobbingPetertopayPaulorcloudrustling),(2)longtermenvironmentalor healtheffectsofseedingmaterials,and(3)consequencesofadditionalsnow. Asforthefirstconcern,evidencedoesnotshowthatseedingcloudswithsilveriodidecausesa decreaseindownwindprecipitation;infact,sometimestheremaybeanincreaseasfaras100 milesdownwindofthetargetarea(BureauofReclamation1977;Harris1981)Theamountof atmosphericmoisturepassingoveramountainbarrierthatisconvertedtoprecipitationis usually10%orlessofthetotalwaterbudget.Ifthisnaturalprecipitationisincreased10%by cloudseeding,only1%oftheoriginalatmosphericmoisturesupplyisdepletedbyseeding. Moreover,wintercloudseedingisconductedontheupwindsideofmountainranges.These cloudsusuallydissipateonthedownwindorleesideoftherange,anaturaleffectcalledthe rainshadow.Thisiswhyareasdownwindofmountains,likeEasternColoradoandNevada, aremuchdrierthanupwindareas.Sotheatmosphericmoisturesupplyonthedownwindside ofmountainrangeswillnotlikelyprecipitateanyway(unlessaidedbyweathermodification). Regardingthesecondconcern,Reclamationhasstudiedenvironmentalandhealthimpacts extensively(BureauofReclamation1977;Harris1981;Howell1977).Thetoxicityofsilverand silvercompounds(fromsilveriodide)wasshowntobeofloworder.AccordingtoReclamation, thesmallamountsofsilverusedincloudseedingare100timeslessthanindustryemissions intotheatmosphereinmanypartsofthecountryorindividualexposurefromtoothfillings.

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Accumulationsinthesoil,vegetation,andsurfacerunoffhavenotbeenlargeenoughto measureabovenaturalbackground(Klein1978).A2004studyforSnowyHydroLimitedin Australiaconfirmedtheseearlierfindings.TheexpansionofLPasagasisanotherpossible seedingmethod.Regardingtheflammabilityofpropanereleasedfromdispensers(Vardiman etal.1971),itwasshownthatitwasnecessarytobringtheignitionsourcetowithinfourfeetof thedispensernozzletocausethepropaneplumetoburnunderverylightwinds.Amodest increaseinwindspeedwouldblowouttheflame.Itwasfurthernotedthat,Propaneisa colorless,odorless,hydrocarbonthatisharmlesstoplantandanimallife.Thequantitiesusedin seedingaresosmall,0.75lbperminutefromeachdispenser,thatthereisnoaccumulation leadingtoapollutionproblem.Anotherstudy(SuperandHeimbach2005a)notedthatThere isagreatdealofpropane(C3H8)andbutane(C4H10),anotherhydrocarbon,beingreleasedby humanactivitiesatascalefarlargerthanforpropaneseeding.Propanedoesnotpresentan environmentalhazardbecauseofitsrapidoxidativedegradation.Althoughtechnicallya greenhousegas,itsapproximateonemonthlifetimeintheatmosphereistooshorttofunctionin thismanner.Incontrast,chlorofluorocarbons(CFCs)haveatmosphericlifetimesintherangeof 60500yrs. Asforthethirdconcern,theconsequencesofadditionalsnow,theSCPPEnvironmental Assessmentreport(Harris1981)investigatedtheimpactsofanassumedweathermodification inducedprecipitationincreaseof5%7.5%onweatherelements,hydrologicandphysiographic phenomena,plantandanimalcommunities,thehumanenvironment,andlandandwater resourceuse.Thereportconcludedthattherewouldbenosignificantimpactonthese environmentalsectors.Thepercentageincreasesfromweathermodificationaremuchsmaller thaninterannualvariabilityofnaturalprecipitation.Furthermore,allCaliforniaoperating projectshavesuspensioncriteriadesignedtostopcloudseedinganytimethereisafloodthreat. Allprojectsemploymeteorologistswhomonitorcurrentandprojectedweatherconditions. Additionally,watermanagementpersonnelfromsponsoringcompaniesmonitorstreamflow andreservoirstorage.Thecombinedinterdisciplinaryinputsaboutfloodpotentialare considered,andconditionsarecomparedagainstsuspensioncriteriainadvanceofany potentialfloodproducingstorms.Moreover,thetypesofstormsthatproducefloodsin Californiaarealmostalwaystoowarmforeffectivesilveriodideseeding(ByronMarler,PG&E, personalcommunication).Althoughweathermodificationincreasesaresmallcomparedto naturalprecipitationvariability,onecananticipatesomeconcernsaboutsnowremovalfrom roadsandsnowloadingonroofs. Finally,somehavequestionedthenotionofinterferingwithnaturethroughweather modification.Thesequestionsoftenignorethefactthathumanactivitieshavecaused inadvertentweathermodificationformanycenturies.TheNRCreport(NRC2003)statesthat thereisampleevidencethatinadvertentweatherandglobalclimatemodification(e.g., greenhousegasesaffectingglobaltemperaturesandanthropogenicaerosolsaffectingcloud properties)isareality.Eventhesimpleactofcultivatingafarmfieldwillalterlocalclimate. Intentionalweathermodification,particularlyoftheformpracticedinwinterseeding,altersthe environmentfarlessthantheaccumulatedeffectsofinadvertentweathermodification.Indeed,

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cloudseedinginCaliforniamayhavebeenpartiallycompensatingforprecipitationlossesfrom theinadvertentweathermodificationbroughtonbyairpollution.

2.2.3. Anticipated Developments and their Relevance to California


Theforegoinginformationpointstoaneedforappliedweathermodificationresearchthatcan beintegratedintoCaliforniasoperatingweathermodificationprogramsrapidlyandeffectively, sothatthoseprogramsmaybeoptimized.Therefore,anticipateddevelopmentsinthenextfew yearsmaybeclassifiedasunfoldingontwofrontsappliedresearchandprogrammatic supportforthatresearch. ThemostrecentweathermodificationresearcheffortisReclamationsWeatherDamage ModificationProgram(WDMP)(Hunteretal.2005).TheWDMPwasbeguninlate2002and wasthefirstfederallysupportedresearchprograminoveradecade.Althoughfederalfunds werelimited($2million),theywerematchedbyfundsfromseveralparticipatingstates.Cost leveragingwasalsoachievedbypiggybackingtheresearchonoperationalweather modificationprojectsalreadybeingconductedbythosestates.TheWDMPconcludedin2006, butmoststateshadalreadyfinishedtheirresearch,includingtheorographicseedingstatesof Utah,Colorado,andNevada.InUtah,arandomizedexperimentusingLPwascarriedouton theWasatchPlateau(SuperandHeimbach2005b).Routinetargetingoftheseededplumewas alreadyassuredbypriorT&Dstudies.Seedingdispenserswerefullyautomated,with experimentalunits(EUs,seedingorplacebo)initiatedbythedetectionofSLWcloudwithan icingsensor.Therewasa25%increaseinprecipitationofseededEUsversusnonseeded,and seedinggeneratedsufficienticecrystalconcentrationstoproduceatleast0.01inchperhour additionalprecipitation.GivenmeasuredSLWfrequency,thiswouldyieldanestimated8% increaseinseasonalprecipitation.ThispercentageisclosetothatgivenintheAMSpolicy statementonweathermodification(AMS1998). TheNevadaWDMPwasintheSierraNevadaneartheCaliforniaborder,andsoitsresultsare highlyrelevanthere.Majorcomponentswereasfollows: 1. PhysicalandchemicalsnowpackanalysesfromtheWalkerandTruckee/TahoeBasins usingminuteamountsofsilver,cesium,rubidium,andotherchemicalstodetermine anddistinguishtargetingbyseededplumesfromgroundandaircraftsources(Huggins etal.2005a)Resultsshowroutinetargetingbyhighelevationgroundgenerators,and lessfrequenttargetingbyaircraftseeding.Therewasnocorrelationbetweensnow densityandsilvercontent. 2. ModelingstudiesAparticledispersionmodelintegratedwithanumericalcloudmodel wasusedtopredictseededplumelocations,forcomparisontothetracechemical analysesandforevaluatingseedinggeneratorplacement(Hugginsetal.2005b).Results showcomplexandrapidlychangingplumesastheymoveintheruggedterrainofthe SierraNevadaanddownwindregions(Figure5).Themodelalsoshowed contaminationintheTahoeandNevadaCarsontargetareasfromupwindoperational seedingprojects.Mountaininducedatmosphericgravitywaves,whichcandramatically affectT&D,werealsopredicted.

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3. HydrologicmodelingAhydrologicmodelwasrevisedtoassesstheimpactofan assumed10%precipitationincreaseintheWalkerBasin.Resultingrunoffpercentages variedfrom65%to95%ofthisaddedprecipitation,dependingonsoilandvegetation characteristicsinthesubbasins. 4. AircraftmicrophysicalmeasurementsInitialfindingsshowageneralinabilitytodocument seedingeffectswithaircraft.Thisoutcomemaybetheresultofnumerouscloudphysics aircraftflightsoverdownwindtargetareas,whereevaporation/sublimationofseeding inducediceparticlesmaybeoccurring.Previousinvestigations,however,have documentedseedingeffectswithaircraft(McGurty1999).Aircraftandradiometer measurementswereusedtovalidatethecloudmodelpredictions,andshowedthatthe extensionofSLWintoregionsdownwindoftheSierraNevadawasunderpredictedby themodel.TheoverallfindingsoftheNevadaWDMPrevealedthatmodeltargeting canbeverifiedbythepresenceofseedingmaterialinthesnowpack,thaticenucleation ratherthanjustscavenging(Section2.3.1)hasbeenverifiedbydualtracerexperiments, andthatthepotentialforaquantitativeevaluationofseedingeffectsmayberealized throughchemicalandphysicalmeasurementsofsnowfall. TheNRCreportonweathermodification(NRC2003)pointsoutaparadox:operationalWMhas continuedunabated,withactivitiesin24countriesandelevenU.S.states,despiteinadequate understandingofcriticalatmosphericprocesses,whichinturnhasledtoascarcityof predictable,detectable,andverifiableresults.Thisparadoxmaybepartlyexplainedbythe perceptionamongsponsorsthatpotentialrewardsaregreaterthantherelativelylowfinancial investmentrequiredtopracticeoperationalweathermodification.TheNRCfurtherrecognizes thattherehavebeenmajorimprovementsoverthelastfewdecadesincomputingpowerand modeling,observationaltechnologies,statisticalmethods,andnewseedingmaterials.Butthese improvementshavenotbeensatisfactorilyrealizedinweathermodification,accordingtothe council,becauseoflackoffundingsupportforthisfieldofscienceintheUnitedStates.For example,comparedto30yearsago,therehasbeenabouta30foldreductionininflation adjusteddollarsbeingspentoncloudseedingresearchintheUnitedStates.Inthelastthree years,lessthan$500,000hasbeendirectedatresearchtopicsthatarespecifictoCalifornia. ThisiswheretheEnergyCommissionsPIERprogramcanhelp.PIERreceivesfundsfrom Californiautilities(gas,electric,telephone,cable)viaasmallchargeoneachratepayers monthlybill.Inturn,PIERfundsresearchforthepublicgoodofCaliforniaanditsratepayers. SCEandPG&EhavebeenworkingwithPIERrepresentatives,towardestablishinga coordinatedPIERresearchprogramonthetopicofoptimizingcloudseedingtechnologiesfor California.ThereisalsopotentialtomatchPIERresearchfundswithfederalresearchfundsfor workoncloudseedingtechnology.

2.3.

Possible Methods and Evaluation Framework

Themethodsdiscussedinthissectionareclassifiedaccordingtotheweathermodification issuesanddevelopmentspresentedabove.Eachsubsectiondescribeshowthemethod

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addressesthoseissuesordevelopments,aswellasthepotentialstrengthsandweaknessesof eachapproach.

2.3.1. Transport and Diffusion of Seeding Materials - Modeling and Observations


Assubmittedabove,T&Dofseedingmaterialsiswidelyregardedasthebiggestobstacleto theireffectiveness.Thecomplexanddependentphysicalchainofeventsmustoccurinthe propersequenceandlocations,withsufficientconcentrationsofeffectiveseedingmaterials,to producedesiredprecipitationaugmentation.Assessmentoftheabilityofseedingtomeetthese criteriacanbedonethroughdirectobservationsorpossiblythroughmodeling. AsrelatedintheNRCreport(NRC2003),computermodelinghasseengreatadvancesinthe lasttwotothreedecades,andweathermodificationshouldcapitalizeonitsuse.Three dimensionalcloudmodelscapableofsimulatingT&Dandcloudmicrophysicsrelatedto seedingeffectshavealreadybeenusedinresearch.ExamplesincludeexperimentsinUtah (Heimbachetal.1997),theNevadaWDMP(Hugginsetal.2005b),ColoradoWDMP(Bustoet al.2005),andafeasibilitystudyforanewWyomingcloudseedingpilotproject(Jensenetal. 2005).SuchmodelingcanbeusedtopredictseededplumeT&Dforoptimumplacementof seedinggenerators,aswellasverificationofseedingeffect(precipitationenhancement). Althoughtherehavebeensignificantadvancesinmodeling,mostinvestigatorsagreethat modelsarenotcurrentlysophisticatedenoughtoaccuratelysimulateallrelevantcloud processes,andthereforetheyshouldnotbetheonlytoolsusedinpredictionandverification. Thisiswheredirectobservationscanhelp. Directphysicalmeasurementshavebeenmadeinweathermodificationformanyyears.An importanttypeofsuchmeasurementshasbeentracers.Examplesoftracersaregasessuchas sulfurhexafluoride(SF6)orchemicalslikesilver,indium,cesium,orrubidium.Thechemicals areoftenreleasedsimultaneouslywithaircraftorgroundreleasedseedingmaterials,andcanbe detecteddownwindofthosesources.Thesilvercontentfromtheseedingmaterialitself(AgI) hasfrequentlybeenusedasatracer.Thissilvercaneitherbescavengedfromcloudsbynatural (notseeded)precipitation,oritcanbedepositedinthesnowpackasaresultoficenucleation, growthandfallout.Therefore,comparativeuseoftheotherchemicalsthatcanbescavenged, butdonothaveicenucleatingproperties,canprovidestrongevidencethattheseedingplume producedadditionalprecipitationoverthetargetarea(Warburtonetal.1995a).Failureto measuresilverinsnowatgreaterthannaturalbackgroundlevels,however,indicatesthatasilver iodideseedingplumedidnotinteractwithcloudsandprecipitationinthetargetareainsucha waytomakeseedingeffective.Otherphysicalmeasurementsmaybeusedtodistinguishseeded fromnaturaliceparticles.Forexample,thesizesandhabitsofthoseparticlescanbemeasuredby electronicprobesordirectcapture.Also,thedensityofvariouslayersinthesnowpack correspondingtoseededorunseededperiodscanbecomparedforanydifferences.A1994SCE researchproject(McGurty1999)measureddensityincreasesinseededsnowlayerstoestimatea minimum8%increaseinsnowwaterfromseeding.Moresuchresearchcouldenhancethe physicalbasisofprojectevaluation. Oneofthegreatestuncertaintiesinbothmodelingandphysicalmeasurementofseededplumes istheconcentrationoficecrystalsproducedbyseeding.Itisbelievedthatconcentrations

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exceeding20crystalsperliterofairarerequiredtoproducesignificantprecipitationrates (Ludlam1955;Super2005a).Assessmentofcrystalconcentrationsatagivenlocationinthetarget areadependson(a)theplumeconcentrationsatasingletime,and(b)thespatialmeanderofthe plumewithtime.AsseenfromFigure5,both(a)and(b)canbehighlyvariable.Moreresearch intoicenucleants,bothnaturalandseeded,isneededtoaddresstheseuncertainties.

2.3.2. Seeding Technologies and Effectiveness


TheprincipalseedingmethodshaveusedAgI,hygroscopicparticles,dryice,andLP.These firstthreecanbedispersedfromgroundgeneratorsoraircraft.Hygroscopicparticlesanddry icehavenotbeenusedmuchinCalifornia,andtheformerismainlyemployedinwarmseason seedingofconvectiveclouds.ThereforethefocuswillbeonAgI,LP,andtheirmethodsof delivery.TheeffectsofthesetwomethodsoncloudmicrophysicswerediscussedinSection2.1, sothefollowingwilladdressequipmentandrelatedlogistics. AircraftseedingwithAgIcanbedonethroughcombustioninplaceorviadroppableflares. Becauseofaircraftmovement,theresultisalinesourceofAgI,whichcombinedwith atmosphericmotionsandiceparticlefallspeeds,producesacurtainofseedingeffects.The shapeandextentofthiscurtainarehighlydeterminedbyT&Dthatisinturncontrolledby atmosphericwinds,turbulence,andcloudmicrophysics.Whetherthiscurtainroutinely envelopsthetargetareatoproducedesiredprecipitationamountshasnotbeenconclusively shown(Deshleretal.1990),somoreresearchisneededinthisarea.Furthermore,sincethebulk ofSLWisfrequentlyconfinedtothelowest3000feetabovethesurface,itpresentsaproblemfor aircraftseeding.Safetyrestrictionsfrequentlyprohibitaircraftoperationthatcloseto mountainousterrain.TheFederalAviationAdministration(FAA)mandatesaminimumflight levelovermountainsof2,000feetabovethehighestterrainwithinahorizontaldistanceoffour nauticalmiles,althoughinspecialcircumstancesawaiverpermitsaclearanceof1,000feet. Icingconditions,especiallyduringdarkness,addtotheconcern.Theremaybesomemountain barrierswhereaircraftseedingmightbeworthconsideration,particularlywhereground seedingisnotfeasible(e.g.,inwildernessareas).Suchmountainsshouldberelativelyisolated soaircraftcouldsafelydescendbelowthefreezinglevelwhenairframeicingbecomesexcessive, orwhereaircraftcouldremainwellupwindwhereexposuretoicingwouldbelimited.Aircraft seedingissubstantiallymoreexpensivethangroundseeding,sothevalueofwater augmentationwouldneedtobehighenoughtojustifysuchanoption. SeedingfromthegroundhasbeenaccomplishedintheSierraNevadaprincipallythroughAgI generators.AtleastoneprojectintheCaliforniacoastalmountainsseedsfromthegroundusing arackwithendburningAgIflares.TherehavebeenexperimentsusingLPdispensers(Section 2.2.1).Allthreedevicesmayberemotelycontrolled,allowingthemtobelocatedathigh altitudesthatarenotroutinelyaccessiblebyoperatorsandtechnicians.Highaltitude,remotely controlleddevicesallowfastresponsetochangingstormconditions,andincreasethechanceof seededplumesreachingthepropertemperatureandSLWregionsoforographicclouds.These devicesarelesscommonthantheirmanuallyoperatedcounterparts,becauseofincreasedcost andoperationalcomplexity;however,someCaliforniaandNevadaprojectshaveusedthem

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exclusively.RemotecontrolledAgIgeneratorsaremorecostlyandcomplexthanremote controlledLPdispensers. Whatevertypesofseedingdevicesareused,itiscriticalthattheybesitedsotheyprovideadequate androutinecoverageofthetargetarea.Thisisnosimpletask,asitmusttakeintoaccounthighly variablemeteorologicalconditionsduringstorms;seetheT&DdiscussioninSection2.2.1. Nevertheless,earlierstudies(Super1990;Super1974;SuperandHeimbach1983;Superand Heimbach1988;Griffith1996)indicatethatseededplumewidthsarelessthan30degrees.More measurementsofthevariationsoficecrystalconcentrationswithinseededplumesareneeded (SuperandBoe1988;SuperandHeimbach1983).Evenifsuchmeasurementsarelacking,itis prudenttospacegenerators/dispenserscloseenoughacrossthewindtoproduceoverlapping plumesandsufficientcrystalmassforsignificantsnowfallincreases(20crystalsperliter minimumrequirement,Section2.3.1).Theseinstrumentsitingsandconfigurationsareamong themostimportantwaystooptimizeseeding.Operationalprojectsshouldassesstheseissues andmakechangesasneeded.MuchmoredetailonSLWavailability,T&D,andgeneratorsiting maybefoundinarecentseedingfeasibilitystudy(SuperandHeimbach2005c). Finally,AgIgeneratorsshouldbeabletoadjustandmeasuresolutionflowrateandflame temperature,toensurethatseedingisoccurringasplanned.LikewiseforLPdispensers, propaneflowrateandtemperaturedownstreamoftheexpansionnozzleshouldbemonitored. Thesearchforoptimumchemistryformulations,burners,andparticlesizesfromgenerators shouldcontinue.

2.3.3. Evaluation Techniques


Scientificevaluationofseedingeffectsaddscosttooperationalseedingprograms,andtherefore hasnotbeencommonlypursuedaspartofthoseprograms.Therehavebeenseveralresearch projectsinwhichevaluationofeffectswastheprimaryobjective.Themaingoalhereshouldbe tooptimizeseedingmethodsthroughappliedresearch.Thisresearchshoulddemonstratethat seedingmaterialsareproducingthedesiredprecipitationincreasesinthetargetarea.Thethree primaryevaluationmethodsmaybecategorizedasphysical,modeling,andstatistical. PhysicalTechniques.Theapproachesinthiscategoryinvolveeitherremoteorinsitu measurementsofseededplumes,theireffectsonprecipitation,orotheratmosphericparameters relatedtocloudseeding.Tomeasureseededplumesandtheireffectsonprecipitation,aircraft samplingandtracechemicalanalysesofsnowhavebeenused.Examplesincludesingleand dualtracertechniques,andcombinedphysicalandchemicalmethods(Chaietal.1993; McGurty1999;Warburtonetal.1995b;Warburtonetal.1996).Anexampleofmeasuring seedingrelatedparameterswouldbemicrowaveradiometer(remotesensing)andaircraftor ground(insitu)measurementsofSLW.Satellitesensorscontinuetobeimprovedand techniquesformonitoringcloudhydrometeors,suchastheoneusedtoproduceFigure3,will certainlycontributetoweathermodificationrelatedknowledge.Satelliteshavetheadvantage ofamuchwidersamplingareathanotherinstruments,andmaybeabletomeasurecloudSLW incertaincases.Radarhasalsobeenusedtotrackseedingplumes(Martneretal.1992; Reinkingetal.1999).Thereisaconsensusamongscientificorganizations(NRC2003;AMS1998; WMO2004)thatphysicalmeasurementsarecrucialtoevaluations,sincetheyareneededto

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verifyandquantifythephysicalchainofeventsrequiredforsuccessfulseeding.Monitoringof naturalambientconditionssuchasSLWandtemperatureinadvanceofanyseedingishighly desirable,sinceitwouldsetabaselineforevaluatingseedingfeasibilityandeventualseeding effects. ModelingTechniques.Thisapproachhasgainedpopularityinthelastdecade,fueledby increasesincomputingpower.RecentexamplesincludetheColoradoandNevadaWDMP experimentsandtheWyomingpilotproject(Section2.3.1).Theseprojectshaveused sophisticatedthreedimensionalnumericalcloudmodelscoupledwithdispersionmodels. Thesemodelspredictseededplumedispersioninmountainousterrain,whichhavebeenused fortargetingassessmentandgeneratorplacementaswellasevaluationofseedingeffects.The outputofsuchmodelsisexemplifiedinFigure5.Hydrologicmodelshavebeenusedto estimatestreamflowsresultingfromassumedseedinginducedsnowpackincreases.Modeling hasseenconsiderableimprovementinphysicalsimulation,theory,speed,sophistication,and accuracy,asacknowledgedintheNRCreport.Nevertheless,modelsimulationsarenot presentlyaccurateenoughtodistinguishseededfromnaturalprecipitationorstreamflow,and thereforemodelsaregenerallyusedforguidancepurposesonly.Useofmodelsinconjunction withphysicalmeasurementsandstatisticalanalysescanbeaveryusefulintegratedapproach, however.Therearesomeinstancesofmodelingresultscomparingfavorablywithphysical sampling(Holroydetal.1995). StatisticalTechniques.Statisticshavebeenthemostcommonandlongstandingtoolsto assessseedingeffects,havingbeenusedalmostsincetheinceptionofweathermodification itself.Thetaskhasprovenformidable,sinceprecipitationaugmentationfromseedingissmall comparedtothenaturalvariabilityofprecipitation.Theproblemisexacerbatedbecauseitis difficulteventopredictthebehaviorofnaturalclouds.Thestatisticalapproachhaslargely consistedoftwotypes:historicaltargetcontrolregression,andrandomizedseedingtrials.The formerattemptstocompareprecipitationfromanareaassumedtobetargetedbyseedingand fromanearbybutsimilarareaunaffectedbyseeding(similaringeography,altitude,etc.).This approachrequiresasuitablylongdurationofobservationsinboththeseededandnonseeded areasduringthehistoricalperiod,toestablisharelationshipforpredictingnaturaltarget precipitationduringtheoperationalseedingperiod.Departuresbetweenpredictedand observedtargetamountscanthenbestatisticallytested.Thecomparisoncanbebetween variablessuchassnowwaterandrunoff,aswellasprecipitation.Alongduration,perhaps10 yearsormore,isrequiredtoachievestable,statisticallysignificantresults(asexemplifiedby someKingsRiverinvestigations(Henderson1966;Henderson2003).Themainassumption hereisthattherelationshipbetweennaturalprecipitationinthetargetandcontrolareasis stablewithtime,thereforelittleclimatechange.Thevalidityofthisassumptionandother limitationsoftargetcontrolregressionhavebeendescribedbyDennis(1980)andothers. Thegoldstandardofstatisticaltechniquesforevaluationofseedingeffectsisthe randomizedexperiment,andisencouragedbytheweathermodificationoperationaland researchcommunities(Garstangetal.2004).Thisapproachrequiresacarefulaprioridesign, unlikemanyregressionanalysesthathavebeendoneposthoc.Thisdesignwouldbeforan exploratoryorconfirmatoryexperimentthatisbasedonfindingsfromaprecedingmodelor

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exploratoryexperiment.Experimentalunitsofafixeddurationareeitherseededorunseeded (placebo)andvariables(usuallyprecipitation)fromthetwoperiodsarecompared.Itis essentialthatnaturalprecipitationinoneormorenearbycontrolareasbemeasured,toguard againststatisticalerrorsandtoallowcompletionoftheexperimentinareasonableperiod (SuperandHeimbach2005a;SuperandHeimbach2005b).Randomizedexperimentsrequire numerous,precisemeasurementofEUresponsevariablesandtypicallyfiveormoreyearsof datatoachievestatisticallysignificantresults.SinceaportionoftheEUsinrandomized experimentsmustbeunseeded,theyaremorecostlyandarethereforeusuallyattemptedonly withinresearchprojects.TherehavebeenrelativelyfewsuchexperimentsintheWestern UnitedStates.Moreover,theseexperimentshavenotalwaysadequatelystudiedrelevant physicalprocessesandT&D,leadingsometoquestiontheirconclusions.TherecentUtah WDMPrandomizedexperimentusedhighresolutioncrosswindcontrolandtargetareasnow gauges,shortdurationEUs,andthreedifferentstatisticaltests.Thesecapabilitiesledto stronglysuggestivepositiveseedingeffectsoverjustonewinter(Vardimanetal.1971;Hunter etal.2005).Whilethisexperimentwasexploratoryratherthanconfirmatoryandcovereda limitedareabecauseofresourceconstraints,itmaybeusedasamodelforfuturestatistical designs.

2.4. Benefits and Costs Versus Other Water Augmentation Technologies


Thecostsofweathermodificationprogramsareoftenexpressedperacrefoot(acft)ofwater theyproduce.Theseestimatesdependonthevalueofwater,whichofcoursevarieswithlocal marketsandtheusetowhichthewaterisput.Also,thecostofoperationalweather modificationprogramsvarieswithgeneratorconfiguration,seedingagents,etc.Because demandforwaterintheWestisincreasing,soisitsvalue.AgriculturalwaterinCaliforniais valuedfrom$40to$50peracft($175peracftduringdrought),whiletheaveragevaluefor hydroelectricuse(byPG&E)is$100peracft(ByronMarler,PG&E,personalcommunication). Municipalandindustrialvaluesaregenerallyhigher,from$300$600peracft(MWD2005). TheWyomingpilotprojectconservativelyestimatesaweathermodificationcostbetween$3.96 and$7.91peracftwithassociatedbenefittocostratiosof2.4toone(WeatherModification Incorporated2005).Benefittocostratiosof3:1to10:1wereestimatedfor10%mountain snowfallincreasesintheSevierRiverbasininUtah(SuperandReynolds1991).Theauthorsare unawareofanycalculationsofbenefitstoskiareas,buttheyarebelievedtobehigh,since severalskiareashaveinvestedinthetechnology.TheUtahDivisionofWaterResourceshas statedthattheestimateddirectcostofwaterfroman8%to12%increaseinsnowpackfrom cloudseedinginkeymountainwatershedsisabout$1peracft(UtahDWR2000).Nevada augmentationestimateshaveledtocostestimatesof$6to$12peracft.InColorado,costsfor cloudseedinggenerallywouldbelessthan$20peracft,withexistingprogramscostingabout onethirdthatofnewprograms.Thisisbecausemuchbackgroundworkhasbeencompleted andinstrumentationarraysarealreadyinplace.TheCaliforniaDWRhasestimatedthatan additional300,000400,000acftofnewsupplycouldberealizedbyseeding,withaninvestment ofaround$7million(DWR2005).Thisrepresentsacostofabout$19peracft,whichincludes

24

aninitialinvestmentofanestimated$1.5to$2millioninplanningandenvironmentalstudies. Thesecostsdonotincluderandomizationorevaluationcomponents,whicharerecommended additionstoongoingprograms.Statelawmandatesthatwaterfromcloudseedingistreated thesameasnaturalsupplywithregardtowaterrights. Fromtheforegoing,theauthorsconcludethatthecurrentcostofoperationalweather modificationprogramsisbetween$1to$20peracftofwaterproduced,givingbenefittocost ratiosbetweentwotooneandtentoone.Comparethesefigurestoother,moreinfrastructure intensivealternativesforincreasingwatersupplyavailability.Thecostofgroundwater bankingprojects(operations)isbetween$150$250peracft,plusmoreforbuildingfacilities (TomRyan,MWD,personalcommunication). Desalinizationispresentlyabout$700peracft andthereisalsoenvironmentalconcernwithbrinedisposal.Newdamconstructioncosts averageover$2,000peracrefoot,anddamstypicallytake10to20yearstodesignandbuild (ACWA2006). Furthermore,newdamsandreservoirsarefrequentlyopposedby environmentalgroups.Therelativelylowcostofweathermodificationisprobablythemain rationalethatmanywater,hydropowerandirrigationagencieshaveusedtopursueit,evenin theabsenceofrigorousscientificproofofitsefficacy.Asthedemandforandthevalueof watergrowsintheWest(Section1.1),thebenefittocostratiosofweathermodificationwill makeitanincreasinglyattractiveoptionforaugmentingwatersupplies.

2.5.

Proposed Tasks and Sequence

SinceitisassumedthatoperationalcloudseedingprogramswillcontinueinCalifornia indefinitelyintothefuture,itisproposedthattheoptimizationofthoseprogramsbe continuousaswell.Itisfurtherproposedthattheactivitieshereinbeginassoonaspracticable, pendingfunding.Withintheuncertaintiesofsuchfundingandlogistics,thefollowingisa recommendedsequenceofimportanttasks: 1. Performfollowonstudiesofthedeclineinoperationalseedingeffectivenessandpotential causes. 2. Developmentofaresearchroadmap.Thiswillinvolveindependentrecommendationsfor criticalelementsofappliedresearchandtheirimplementation,plusinputfromanexisting groupofscientistsandCaliforniaseedingoperators. 3. Beginfieldworktomonitoratmosphericconditionsrelevanttoweathermodification(see Section2.3.3,thesubsectiononphysicalevaluationtechniques).Initiatedataacquisition andcollaborationwiththeHMTprogram. 4. Design,deployinstrumentation,andimplementanappliedresearchprogramthatis piggybackedononeormoreCaliforniaoperationalweathermodificationprograms.The specificationsofsuchaprogramwouldbegenerallydescribedintheresearchroadmap,but arandomizedcomponentisessential.Thestepsinprogramimplementationwoulddowell toapproximatethoseputforthbyList(2004): a.Conceptualmodeldevelopment(basedpartlyonfindingsfromitems1and3above)

25

b.Siteselection c.Exploratoryfieldstudies(extensionofactivitiesinitem3above) d.Randomizedexperiment(toverifyseedingeffectsfrompriorstatisticalstudies) e.Evaluation 5. Analyzeresultsfromappliedresearchprogramofitem4,beginningin2008. 6. Beginimplementationofresearchresultsinoperationalseedingprogramstooptimizethem, beginning2009.

2.6.

Recommendations
FundingshouldbesoughtfromvariouspublicandprivatesourcesinCalifornia(e.g., theCaliforniaEnergyCommission,CalFedBayDeltaProgram,andstakeholderssuchas hydroelectricpowerutilitiesandwatersupplyagencies,waterconservationorirrigation districts,skiareas)tosupporttheproposedappliedresearch. Aneducationpackageshouldbedevelopedandusedtoinformpolicymakers, stakeholders,andthepublicaboutthecurrentstateofweathermodification. Giventheavailabilityoffunding,beginthetasksoutlinedintheprevioussection. Synergywithotherresearchprojectsrelatedtoweathermodificationshouldbesought, suchaswiththeNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministrations(NOAAs) HydrometeorologicalTestbed(HMT)program.Datafrompastrelevantprojects,such asSUPRECIP,shouldbeanalyzedfortheircontributionsofknowledgetoseeding optimization. AweathermodificationresearchfacilityshouldbeformedinCalifornia,involving universities,researchlaboratories,andotherinterestedagencies.

Theauthoroffersthefollowinggeneralrecommendations:

26

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Holroyd,E.W.,J.A.Heimbach,andA.B.Super,1995:ObservationsandModelSimulationof AgIseedingwithinaWinterStormoverUtahsWasatchPlateau.J.WeatherModification27, 3656. Howell,WallaceE.,1977:EnvironmentalImpactsofPrecipitationManagement:Resultsand InferencesfromProjectSkywater.Bull.AmericanMeteorologicalSociety58,488501. Huggins,ArlenW.,P.RossEdwards,andJosephR.McConnell,2005a:SummaryofTrace ChemicalandPhysicalMeasurementsofSnowfallinTwoNevadaCloudSeedingTargetAreas. 16thConferenceonPlannedandInadvertentWeatherModification,PaperP1.12.American MeteorologicalSociety,SanDiego,California,913January2005.Onlineat http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/83608.pdf. Huggins,ArlenW.,DarkoKoracin,DomagojPodnar,andMingXiao,2005b:ACaseStudyof MesoscaleandPlumeDispersionModelingforaFebruary2004CloudSeedingEventinthe WalkerRiverBasinofCalifornia/Nevada.16thConferenceonPlannedandInadvertentWeather Modification,Paper3.5.AmericanMeteorologicalSociety,SanDiego,California,913January 2005.Onlineathttp://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/83606.pdf. Hunter,StevenM.,JonMedina,andDavidA.Matthews.TheWeatherDamageModification Program,AnnualMeeting,16thConferenceonPlannedandInadvertentWeatherModification,Paper 7.1.AmericanMeteorologicalSociety,SanDiego,California,913January2005.Onlineat http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/82476.pdf. Jensen,Tara,RoelofBruintjes,DanielBreed,WilliamHall,BruceBoe,andKristyRoss,2005:A ModelBasedFeasibilityStudyofGlaciogenicSeedingDuringaWinterOrographic PrecipitationEventinWyoming.16thConferenceonPlannedandInadvertentWeatherModification, PaperP1.8.AmericanMeteorologicalSociety,SanDiego,California,913January2005.Online athttp://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/85221.pdf. Klein,DonaldA.,1978:EnvironmentalImpactsofArtificialIceNucleatingAgents,Dowden, Hutchinson&Ross,Inc.,Stroudsburg,Pennsylvania,256pp. List,Roland,2004:WeatherModificationAScenariofortheFuture.BulletinAmer. MeteorologicalSociety85,5163. Ludlam,F.H.,1955:Artificialsnowfallfrommountainclouds.Tellus7,277290. Marler,ByronL.,1992:WeathermodificationprogramsatPacificGasandElectricCompany. Preprints,SymposiumonPlannedandInadvertentWeatherModification,AmericanMeteorological Society,Atlanta,Georgia,5457. Martner,B.E.,R.A.Kropfli,andJ.D.Marwitz,1992:Radarobservationsoftransportand diffusionincloudsandprecipitationusingTRACIR.J.Atmos.Technol.3,226241. Marwitz,JohnD.,1987:CloudPhysicsStudiesinSCPPfrom19771987.ReportNo.AS157, DepartmentofAtmosphericScience,UniversityofWyoming,Laramie,101pp.

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McGurty,B.M.,1999:Turningsilverintogold:Measuringthebenefitsofcloudseeding. HydroReview18,26. MetropolitanWaterDistrictofSouthernCalifornia(MWD),2005:TheDistrictataGlance. BrochureproducedJuly2005. Mooney,MargaretL.,andGeorgeW.Lunn,1969:TheareaofMaximumEffectResultingfrom theLakeAlmanorRandomizedCloudSeedingExperiment.J.AppliedMeteorology,8,6874. Mote,PhillipW.,AlanF.Hamlet,MartynP.Clark,andDennisP.Lettenmaier,2005:Declining MountainSnowpackinWesternNorthAmerica.BulletinAmer.MeteorologicalSociety86,3949. NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),2006:NOAA HydrometeorologicalTestbedHMTWest2006Operations.NOAAEarthSystemResearch Laboratoryonlinepublicationatwww.etl.noaa.gov/programs/2006/hmt/. NationalResearchCouncil,2003:CriticalIssuesinWeatherModificationResearch.National AcademyPress,WashingtonD.C.,123pp.Onlineat http://books.nap.edu/books/0309090539/html/index.html. Orville,HaroldD.,BruceA.Boe,GeorgeW.Bomar,WilliamR.Cotton,ByronL.Marler,and JosephA.Warburton,2004:AresponsebytheWeatherModificationAssociationtothe NationalResearchCouncilsreporttitledCriticalIssuesinWeatherModificationResearch. Onlineathttp://weathermodification.org/wma_response.htm. PublicBroadcastingSystem(PBS)Frontline,2001:Blackout,Program#1916.Onlineat www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/blackout/.Originalairdate:June5,2001. Rangno,A.L.,1986:Howgoodareourconceptualmodelsoforographiccloudseeding? PrecipitationEnhancementAScientificChallenge.(R.Braham,Ed.)Meteorological Monographs,21,No.43,AmericanMeteorologicalSociety,115126. Reinking,R.F.,R.T.Bruintjes,B.W.Bartram,B.W.OrrandB.E.Martner,1999:Chafftagging fortrackingtheevolutionofcloudparcels.J.WeatherMod.31,119133. Reynolds,DavidW.,andArnettS.Dennis.1986:AReviewoftheSierraCooperativePilot Project.BulletinoftheAmericanMeteorologicalSociety67,513523. Reynolds,D.W.,1988:Areportonwintersnowpackaugmentation.BulletinAmerican MeteorologicalSociety69,12901300. Reynolds,DavidW.,1989:DesignofaGroundBasedSnowpackEnhancementProgramUsing LiquidPropane.JournalofWeatherModificationApril1989,2934. Reynolds,DavidW.,1996:TheEffectsofMountainLeeWavesontheTransportofLiquid PropaneGeneratedIceCrystals.JournalofAppliedMeteorology35,14351456. RockyMountainNews,2005:ChangeInTheAir:ThirdInAnOccasionalSeriesAboutHigh AltitudeResearchInColorado.Part3:Bleakforecastforskiindustry.March19,2005;Onlineat www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/local/article/0,1299,DRMN_15_3634381,00.html.

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Rosenfeld,Daniel,2000:SuppressionofRainandSnowbyUrbanandIndustrialAir Pollution.Science287,10March2000.Onlineat www.earth.huji.ac.il/data/pics/Science_Smoke.pdf. RosenfeldD.,andI.M.Lensky,1998:Satellitebasedinsightsintoprecipitationformation processesincontinentalandmaritimeconvectiveclouds.BulletinAmericanMeteorological Society79,24572476.Onlineatwww.earth.huji.ac.il/data/pics/RosenfeldLendsky_BAMS98.pdf. Ryan,Tom,2005:WeatherModificationforPrecipitationAugmentationanditsPotentialUsefulnessto theColoradoRiverBasinStates.MetropolitanWaterDistrictofSouthernCalifornia,34pp. Onlineathttp://cwcb.state.co.us/Weather_Modification/WxMod%20Basin%20States1.pdf. Saunders,Stephen,andMaureenMaxwell,2005:LessSnow,LessWater:ClimateDisruptioninthe West.RockyMountainClimateOrganization,ACleartheAirReport,September2005. Shaw,Hank,2006:CaliforniahasanExpensiveThirst.StocktonRecord15February2006. Super,ArlinB.,1974:SilveriodideplumecharacteristicsovertheBridgerMountainRange, Montana.J.AppliedMeteorology13,6270. Super,ArlinB.,andJamesA.Heimbach,1983:EvaluationoftheBridgerRangewintercloud seedingexperimentusingcontrolgages.J.AppliedMeteorology22,19892011. Super,ArlinB.,andJamesA.Heimbach,1988:Microphysicaleffectsofwintertimecloud seedingwithsilveriodideovertheRockyMountains:PartII:ObservationsovertheBridger Range,Montana.J.AppliedMeteorology27,11521165. Super,ArlinB.,andBruceA.Boe,1988:Microphysicaleffectsofwintertimecloudseedingwith silveriodideovertheRockyMountains:PartIII:ObservationsovertheGrandMesa,Colorado. J.AppliedMeteorology27,11661182. Super,ArlinB.,1990:WinterOrographicCloudSeedingintheIntermountainWest.J. WeatherModification31,106116. Super,ArlinB.,andD.W.Reynolds,1991:TheFeasibilityofEnhancingStreamflowintheSevier RiverBasinofUtahbySeedingWinterMountainClouds,ReportNo.R9110,Bureauof Reclamation,DenverFederalCenter,Denver,Colorado. Super,ArlinB.,andJamesA.Heimbach,2005a:FinalReportonUtahcloudseedingexperimentation usingpropaneduringthe2003/04winter.UtahDivisionofWaterResourcesfinalreporttothe BureauofReclamation,March2005,114pp.Onlineat www.usbr.gov/pmts/rivers/WxMod/UTFinal.pdf. Super,ArlinB.,andJamesA.Heimbach,2005b:Randomizedpropaneseedingexperiment: WasatchPlateau,Utah.J.WeatherModification37,3566. Super,ArlinB.,andJamesA.Heimbach,2005c:FeasibilityofSnowpackEnhancementfromColorado WinterMountainClouds:EmphasisonSupercooledLiquidWaterandSeedingwithSilverIodideand

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4.0 Glossary
ACWA AMS

AssociationofCaliforniaWaterAgencies AmericanMeteorologicalSociety

CFCs

chlorofluorocarbons

DWR DoI

CaliforniaDepartmentofWaterResources DepartmentoftheInterior

DRI

DesertResearchInstitute

EUs

experimentalunits

FAA GPS

FederalAviationAdministration globalpositioningsystem

HMT IN

HydrometeorologicalTestbed icenuclei

LOREP LP

LakeOrovilleRunoffEnhancementProject liquidpropane

MWD

MetropolitanWaterDistrictofSouthernCalifornia

NOAA NRC

NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration NationalResearchCouncil

PG&E PIER SCE


PacificGasandElectric PublicInterestEnergyResearchProgram SouthernCaliforniaEdison

SCPP SLW

SierraCooperativePilotProject supercooledliquidwater

SUPRECIP T&D WM

SuppressionofPrecipitationExperiment transportanddiffusion weathermodification WeatherModificationAssociation

WMA WDMP

WeatherDamageModificationProgram

33

34

Appendix A Prioritized Cloud Seeding Research Needs for California

APA-1

Appendix A Prioritized Cloud Seeding Research Needs for California


Research needs were recently identified by a team of California cloud seeding operators, including electric utility and water agency representatives (the California cloud seeding optimization group see participants below). Additional input to the research needs was obtained from leading scientists in the field of cloud seeding. The California Energy Commissions PIER representatives sponsored three meetings of stakeholders and helped organize the information. The list of research priorities developed by this group follows: CONFIRM Silverman Preliminary Findings 1. Studies of existing data o More control streams (coastal?) Better controls on basin to basin basis More information about past and present operations and target areas Reanalysis with better/different data OPTIMIZE Seeding Programs 1. Air and surface strategies/ liability 2. Transport and Dispersion Field studies 3. Evaluations using tracers 4. Sufficient data to operate and evaluate, and better equipment and systems to achieve high reliability Improve Conceptual models Use new radar technologies Ground based seeding plume lofting Generator improvements- generator network density Modeling (Transport and Dispersion) Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) Better ice nucleation chemistry and other agents (liquid propane) High resolution atmospheric and cloud microphysics models Identify liabilities and establish business based values

The following participants of the California cloud seeding optimization group helped develop the cloud seeding research priority list: Person Rob Farber Brian McGurty Byron L Marler Ed McCarthy Dennis Gibbs Paul Scantlin Norm Worthington Pierre Stevens Tom Ryan Tom Weddle Lynn Garver Steve Hugen Bruce George Bruce Boe Tom Henderson Arlen Huggins Richard Stone Steve Hunter William Woodley Maurice Roos Mike Floyd Bernie Silverman Don Griffith Mike Kleeman Phil Duffy Norm Miller Joe OHagan Agency SCE SCE PG&E PG&E Santa Barbara County Water Agency LA Dept of Water and Power Northern California Power Agency Sacramento Municipal Utilities District Metropolitan Water District of Southern California Kaweah Delta Water Conservation District Kings River Conservation District Kings River Conservation District Kaweah Delta Water Conservation District Weather Modification Inc Atmospherics, Inc. Desert Research Institute RHS Consulting U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Woodley Weather Consultants DWR DWR Consulting Meteorologist North American Weather Consultants UC Davis Lawrence Livermore National Labs Lawrence Berkeley Labs California Energy Commission