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1.

Introduction
Traffic along with highways can be described by their probabilities or statistical aspects in addition to theoretical models such as the car following and hydrodynamic models which deal with deterministic characteristics of traffic flow. Many variables such as arrival pattern, headway, gaps can be dealt with by the ordinary statistical aspects. As the vehicle pattern and inter arrival times are very difficult to predict, some distribution techniques can be applied to illustrate them properly. The study of spacing and headway characteristics are very important topics of study as they determine operating characteristics of headway and level of service. Vehicle arrival pattern is not at all predictable to study the arrival pattern we must use any mathematical distribution techniques. There are two methods of vehicle arrival study. 1. Continuous distribution technique or headway modeling.. 2. Discrete or Poisson distribution Poisson distribution technique deals with arrival rate of the vehicle which is a discrete variable. Continuous distribution technique deals with the headway or gap which will be discussed in detail in this study. There various traffic scenarios based on which there are different distribution techniques used to illustrate them namely Poisson, normal, Pearson type III distribution. They are discussed in detail in next chapter. Discrete distribution is also another important phenomenon which is kept as an advanced topic after the discussion. After analyzing the vehicle arrival patterns and different vehicle headway modeling still it is not possible to predict the random nature of the vehicle arrival pattern. The vehicle behavior is independent and also a sequence of vehicle does not follow any systematic pattern. Thus vehicles almost behave like random numbers. Keeping this fact in mind in this report following Monte Carlo method vehicles are generated assuming they are following some distribution techniques with some random numbers.

2.1. Basics of headway modeling A microscopic view of traffic flow is shown in fig 2.1 as several individual vehicles traverse a length of roadway for a certain period of time. The arrival time of each vehicle at the observation point is noted as t1, t2 Etc. The elapsed time between the arrival of pairs of vehicle defined as the time headways can be shown as 1

(h) 1-2=t2-t1, (h)2-3=t3-t2,.etc. Observe the time headway actually consists of two time intervals: the occupancy time for the physical vehicle to pass the observation point and the time gap between the rear of the lead vehicle and the front of the following vehicle.

Source: May.A,D. Traffic flow fundamentals Prentice hall, 1990 , pp-12

Time headway distribution generally varies directly with the traffic condition or flow rate. We can divide the headway distribution pattern depending on traffic in 3 parts: 1. Under low flow condition. 2. Under intermediate flow condition. 3. Under heavy flow condition.

Low flow condition means basically there is no properly defined interaction between two vehicles or their headways can be considered as Random. The only modification in the real life would be due to a minimum time headway required from the safety point of view .Random headway distributions can be easily mathematically illustrated by Negative exponential distribution. Under heavy flow conditions all the vehicles will try to interact with each other. So the driver will always try to maintain a constant headway, so this is Constant headway distribution. This can be mathematically expressed by Normal distribution method. Intermediate headway distribution describes the difference the two extreme flow condition. Here two of the above condition will be present. Some of the vehicles will interact with each other, others not. We generally use Pearson type III distribution to illustrate this intermediate distribution. 2.2. Random headway state The negative exponential distribution can be used to illustrate this headway state. For time headways to be truly random, two conditions to be met. Firstly, any point in time is likely to have a vehicle arriving as is any other point in time. Secondly, the arrival of one vehicle at a point in time does not affect the arrival time of any other vehicle.

The negative exponential distribution can be derived from the Poisson count distribution. The particular distribution can be indicated by the following form P (x) = (m x e-m)/ x! Where, P (x) = Probability of arrival of x vehicles in any interval of t sec m= (average rate of arrival) * (time interval) Let us consider the special case when there is no vehicle. x=0 P( 0 )= e-m (2) (1)

This means if there is no vehicle then the individual time headway must be equal or greater than t. Therefore, P (0)=P (h t) P (h t) = e-m (3) (4)

Now m is defined as the avg. no. of vehicles arriving in time interval t. The hourly flow rate is V and t in seconds. Then, m= (V/3600) t eqn (3.3) becomes P (h t) = e-(V/3600)t The mean time headway can be () can be determined easily so, P (h t) = et/

(5)

(6)

(7)

To calculate probability of a time headway between t and t+t P (t h t+t)= P (h t)-P (h t+t) (8)

Following the above mentioned procedure it is possible to fit this distribution into different flow levels to show the characteristics of the distribution. The theoretical results are superimposed on the measured time headway distribution. Careful study will give some characteristics of the random distribution to observed one.

Fig 2- Random time headway distribution

Source: May.A,D. Traffic flow fundamentals Prentice hall, 1990 , pp-19

Some of the important observations are 1. The random distribution has a characteristic of smallest headways occurring most likely, probabilities continuously decrease with the increase with time headway.

2. The comparison is best under lowest flow level. 2.3 Constant headway state When the flow is heavy then, the driver is attempting to maintain a constant headway But some error is making the headway vary about the mean time headway, and then we can apply normal distribution, The lowest theoretical headway, =-2s where, =mean time headway, s=standard deviation of the time headway distribution Now the pdf of the normal distribution is f(t)=(1/2) exp(-(t-)2/22) From this eqn we can write P(ht)=-t (1/2) exp(-(t-)2/22) In order to get the probability when headway is less than t+t P( h t+t)=-t+t (1/2) exp(-(t-)2/22) In order to get the probability in between t and t+t P(t h t+t)= P( h t+t)- P(ht)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

The integration of normal distribution is not available in closed form solution. Thats why one has to numerically integrate or normalize the given distribution having mean and standard deviation to a standard normal distribution (=0, sd =1). Whose values are available in standard table. As we know that, If X N (, 2), Then Z = X /

is a normal random variable with mean 0 and variance 1.

. Such a random variable Z is said to have a standard, or unit, normal distribution. Let () denote its distribution function as (t)=-t (1/2) exp(-(t-)2/22) This result that Z = (X )/ has a standard normal distribution when X is normal with parameters and is quite important, it enables us to write all probability statements about X in terms of probabilities for Z. So we can write,

(13)

Fig 3- Standardized normal distribution

Source: Ross S.M. Introduction to probability and statistics Elsevier press, 2003, pp-171

Considering, this we can find out the values using normal table. Following the above mentioned procedure it is possible to fit this distribution into different flow levels to show the characteristics of the distribution. The theoretical results are superimposed on the measured time headway distribution. Careful study will give some characteristics of the normal distribution to observed one.

Fig 4- Normal time headway distribution

Source: May.A,D. Traffic flow fundamentals Prentice hall, 1990 , pp-23

Some of the important observations are 1. The normal distribution has a characteristic of symmetrical about the mean time headway and a bell shaped distribution. 2. The comparison is best under highest flow level.

2.3.

The intermediate headway state lies between the two boundary conditions random, constant headway states. This is the situation encountered almost everyday. In this section it is tried to describe Pearson type III distribution by which we can easily illustrate this headway state.

Pearson type III distribution is a generalized mathematical model approach. The pdf of this distribution is f(t)=/ (k)[(t-)]k-1e-(t-) f(t)= probability density function = parameter, a function of , ,k. (k)= gamma function is equivalent to (k-1)!=(k-1 (k-1) Let k= 3.785 (3.785)= 2.785(2.785)= 2.785*1.785(1.785)= 2.785*1.785*.927(from gamma (14)

distribution table attached)= 0.461 ,= shift parameter K= shape parameter

Probability of headway greater than t is given as (fig 3.5(b)) P (ht) =t f (t) dt Thus probability of a headway lying between t and t+t is (fig 3.5(c)) P(tht+t)=t f(t) dt-t+t f(t)dt The formulation can be simplified into (fig 3.5(d)) P(tht+t)={[f(t)+f(t+t)]/2}dt (16) (15)

Fig 5- Probability function of a Pearson type III distribution 8

Following the above mentioned procedure it is possible to fit this distribution into different flow levels to show the characteristics of the distribution. The theoretical results are superimposed on the measured time headway distribution. Careful study will give some characteristics of the random distribution to observed one.

Fig 6- Pearson type III distribution

Source: May.A,D. Traffic flow fundamentals Prentice hall, 1990 , pp-26

Some of the important observations are 1. The probability of the theoretical and measured distribution are most inconsistent when time headways between 1 and 4 sec. 2. The comparison between this and measured distribution at four flow levels indicates that qualitatively the two are about the same.

2.4.

Numerical illustratation

Fit a (i) negative exponential distribution, (ii) normal distribution, ( iii) Pearson type III distribution for the following data with scan interval 2 sec, mean time headway 5 sec, standard deviation 3.9 sec and compute the estimated no. of headways. No. h h+2.0 observed no. of headways 1 2 3 4 5 0 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 10 Total no. of vehicles =57 20 16 14 5 2

Solution: (i) Negative exponential distribution

First observed probability of headway= 20/57=0.35 By this procedure we can find out all other observed probabilities. As we know P (t h) = eSo, P (t+2.0h)= et+2/ t/

When t=0 sec, t=2.0 sec, (Given, =mean headway=5 sec) Therefore,

P (t h) = e- =e0=1. P (t+2.0h)= et+2/

t/

= e-

2/5

=0.67

P(tht+2.0)= P (t h)-P(t+2.0h)=1-0.67=0.33

Now, the no. of headways estimated by negative exponential distribution =0.33*57=19 By this method we can find the estimated no. of headways by negative exponential distribution which is solved in a tabular manner.

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No.

h+2

obs prob.

P (t h)

P(tht+2.0)

Actual no of h/w

1 2 3 4 5

0 2 4 6 8

2 4 6 8 10

20 16 14 5 2 Total=57

0.33 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.20 1.00

19 12 9 6 11 Total=57

(ii)Normal distribution Given, =0.5, mean headway= 5 sec Standard deviation( for minimum headway)=(5-0.5)/2=2.25 sec As we know,. P(t h t+2) = P(h (t+2)-/)- P(h (t- )/) = P( h2)-P(h0) =P(h(2-5)/2.25)- P(h(0-5)/2.25) = P(h-1.33)- P(h-2.22) =0.091-0.013 (from table 1) = 0.078 Actual no. of headways observed during the first interval is= 0.078*57=4 By the above procedure we can find all the estimated no. of headways. The complete calculation is done in the following tabular form.

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No.

h+2

Observed P(th) prob.

1 2 3 4 5

0 2 4 6 8

2 4 6 8 10

20 16 14 5 2 Total=57

0.08 0.24 0.34 0.24 0.10 1.00

4 14 19 14 6 Total=57

(iii)Pearson type III distribution As we know from the pdf of Pearson type III distribution that, f(t)= / (k)[(t-)]k-1e-(t-) Now, k=(-)/ =(5-0.5)/3.9=1.154 ,=k/(-)=0.256 (k)= 0.933 (from table 2) Putting respective values in the given equation we get, f(t=2)=0.256/0.933((2-0.5)0.256)1.154-1e-0.256(2-0.5)=0.161 f(t=4)=(putting t=t+2 in the above eqn)=0.109 P(2h4)= P(tht+t)={[f(t)+f(t+t)]/2}dt =(0.161+0.109)/2*2 = 0.068 Actual no. of headways observed in this interval=0.068*57=4 Thus by applying the above method we can find out all the actual no. of headways found by this distribution technique. The complete solution is given in the following tabular manner.

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No.

h+2

Observed Observed no. of headways prob.

f(t)

P(tht+2)

1 2 3 4 5

0 2 4 6 8

2 4 6 8 10

20 16 14 5 2 Total=57

0.16 0.26 0.15 0.12 0.31

10 14 9 7 17 Total=57

The derived probabilities with different distributions are plotted in y axis and shown in a graphical manner

0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1 2 3 4 5 pearson type III observed normal negative exponential

. Fig 7. Comparison of three different types of distributions fitted into same headway data In fig 7 as we can see the different distributions are shown properly with respect to observed distribution

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2.5.Numerical illustratation Fit a (i) negative exponential distribution, (ii) normal distribution, ( iii) Pearson type III distribution for the following data with scan interval 0.5 sec, mean time headway 5 sec, standard deviation 3.9 sec and compute the estimated no. of headways.Total no. of headways observed = 1320. h
No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 h+0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0

81 87 90 102 87 102 83 81 65 36 40 41 33 32 26 20 22 24 17 253

Solution: (ii) Negative exponential distribution

First observed probability of headway= 20/57=0.35 By this procedure we can find out all other observed probabilities. As we know P (t h) = eSo, P (t+0.5h)= et+2/ t/

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When t=0 sec, t=0.5 sec, (Given, =mean headway=5 sec) Therefore, Now, the no. of headways

t/

= e-

0.5/5

=0.9

P(tht+2.0)= P (t h)-P(t+2.0h)=1-0.9=0.095 estimated by negative exponential distribution

=0.095*1320=126 By this method we can find the estimated no. of headways by negative exponential distribution which is solved in a tabular manner.

h+0.5
Obs. headway 81 87 90 102 87 102 83 81 65 36 40 41 33 32 26 20 22 24 17 253

obs prob.

P (t h)

P(tht+0.5)

Actual no of h/w

no 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0

0.061 0.066 0.068 0.077 0.066 0.077 0.063 0.061 0.049 0.027 0.030 0.031 0.025 0.024 0.020 0.015 0.017 0.018 0.013 0.192

1.00 0.90 0.82 0.74 0.67 0.61 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.27 0.25 0.22 0.20 0.18 0.17 0.15

0.095 0.086 0.078 0.070 0.064 0.058 0.052 0.047 0.043 0.039 0.035 0.032 0.029 0.026 0.023 0.021 0.019 0.017 0.016 0.150

126 114 103 93 84 76 69 62 56 51 46 42 38 34 31 28 25 23 21 197

(ii)Normal distribution Given, =0.5, mean headway= 5 sec Standard deviation( for minimum headway)=(5-0.5)/2=2.25 sec As we know,. P(t h t+2) = P(h (t+0.5)-/)- P(h (t- )/) 15

= P( h0.5)-P(h0) =P(h(0.5-5)/2.25)- P(h(0-5)/2.25) (from the normal table) = 0.010 Actual no. of headways observed during the first interval is= 0.010*1320=13 By the above procedure we can find all the estimated no. of headways. The complete calculation is done in the following tabular form.

No.

h+0.5

Observed P(th) prob.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0

81 87 90 102 87 102 83 81 65 36 40 41 33 32 26 20 22 24 17 253

0.061 0.066 0.068 0.077 0.066 0.077 0.063 0.061 0.049 0.027 0.030 0.031 0.025 0.024 0.020 0.015 0.017 0.018 0.013 0.192

0.013 0.023 0.038 0.060 0.091 0.133 0.187 0.252 0.328 0.412 0.500 0.588 0.672 0.748 0.813 0.867 0.909 0.940 0.962 0.977

0.010 0.015 0.022 0.031 0.042 0.054 0.065 0.076 0.084 0.088 0.088 0.084 0.076 0.065 0.054 0.042 0.031 0.022 0.015 0.036

13 20 29 41 56 71 86 100 110 116 116 110 100 86 71 56 41 29 20 47

(iii)Pearson type III distribution As we know from the pdf of Pearson type III distribution that,

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f(t)= / (k)[(t-)]k-1e-(t-) Now, k=(-)/ =(5-0.5)/3.9=1.154 ,=k/(-)=0.256 (k)= 0.933 (from gamma distribution table) Putting respective values in the given equation we get, f(t=2)=0.256/0.933((2-0.5)0.256)1.154-1e-0.256(2-0.5)=0.161 f(t=4)=(putting t=t+2 in the above eqn)=0.109 P(2h2.5)= P(tht+t)={[f(t)+f(t+t)]/2}dt =(0.161+0.148)/2*2 = 0.71 Actual no. of headways observed in this interval=0.071*1320=94 Thus by applying the above method we can find out all the actual no. of headways found by this distribution technique. The complete solution is given in the following tabular man No. h h+0.5 Observed Observed no. of headways
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 81 87 90 102 87 102 83 81 65 36 40 41 33 32 26 20 22 24 17 253 0.061 0.066 0.068 0.077 0.066 0.077 0.063 0.061 0.049 0.027 0.030 0.031 0.025 0.024 0.020 0.015 0.017 0.018 0.013 0.192 0.000 0.044 0.087 0.083 0.077 0.071 0.064 0.058 0.052 0.047 0.042 0.037 0.033 0.030 0.027 0.024 0.021 0.019 0.017 0.166

f(t)

P(tht+0.5)

0 58 115 110 102 94 85 77 69 62 55 49 44 39 35 31 28 25 22 219

prob.

0.000 0.176 0.172 0.161 0.148 0.135 0.122 0.110 0.099 0.089 0.079 0.071 0.063 0.056 0.050 0.044 0.039 0.035 0.031

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3. Vehicle generation
3.1. Background Until now throughout the study continuous distribution or headway modeling is being studied with different distribution techniques. Now we will try to study the vehicle generation . We will try to generate vehicles as per a given distribution so that whenever a random number is generated a vehicle arrives. Basically here sequence of outcomes is generated for a continuous random variable. We will use Monte-Carlo method for this purpose. By this method we can successfully simulate any repetitive, random event, such as random pattern of vehicle arrival ,repeated application of it leads to an approximation of the outcome of a system. For a sequence of independent and uniformly distributed numbers in the 0 to 1 range we can generate vehicles following certain distribution. Here vehicles are generated assuming their headways are following some distribution techniques. Here we have generated only such vehicles follow exponential distribution. numbers are used for this purpose. 3.2. Simulation outcomes of continuous random variables Now if we have a set of random numbers in the 0 to 1 region, say R N. Then we can transform them to a particular outcome. Let us consider some vehicles with headways following exponential distribution. For simplicity we are discussing only considering that the headways follow negative exponential distribution. Headways can also follow all other distribution (e.g.: normal distribution). F( x )=( 1- e-ax ) (18) Some previously generated random

In order to transform RN to the given outcome we need to equate RN with eqn 3.1. Using inverse transformation technique we get,. RN=( 1- e-ax ) so, e-ax=1- RN or, -ax=ln(1- RN ) or, x=-1/a ln(1- RN ) (19)

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3.3. Numerical example Using the following random numbers generate vehicle arrival for a period of 20 sec. Assume headways to follow exponential distribution with mean time headway 6 sec. [0.59, 0.45, 0.26, 0.70,0.14, 0.28, 0.93, 0.76,0.54, 0.45,0.65] Solution: a=1/mean headway=1/6 from eqn (3.2), x=-1/a l n(1- RN )

for the first arrival , h1=1/6ln(1-0.59)=5.43 sec similarly for the second arrival, , h2=1/6ln(1-0.45)=3.57 sec therefore, cumulative headway=5.43+3.57=9sec similarly we can find other headways. Calculation is done in the following table.

Vehicle no.

RN

1 2 3 4 5

5.43 3.57 1.8 7.2 2

5.43 9 10.8 18 20

4. Conclusion
Today for any type of transportation-roadway related issue proper knowledge on headway considerations is obvious, which makes our detailed discussion very much relevant. Classification of headway distribution with three types of traffic scenarios are discussed . Then the basics of Monte Carlo method and its application to generate vehicle arrival assuming the headways to follow exponential distribution are discussed. This Monte-Carlo method forms the heart of the larger simulation models. Vehicle arrival can also be modeled using Poisson distribution, which is discussed in brief in the next chapter as an advanced study topic.

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5. References
Kadiyali L.R. Traffic engineering and transport planning, Khanna Publishers, 2009, pp. 596-620 Drew.D.R. Traffic flow theory and control, McGraw-Hill,1968,pp 124-153 May.A.D. Traffic flow fundamentals, Prentice Hall,2002,pp.12-48 Papacostas C.S. Transportation engineering and planning ,Prentice , pp-615-620 Ross S.M. Introduction to probability and statistics Elsevier press, 2003 , pp-171-180

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6. Advanced study: Poisson distribution of vehicle arrival

6.1. Introduction The distribution of vehicles in space or time may assume various mathematical forms. In general it is likely that the spacing in between the vehicles may assume a random and haphazard manner with gaps of various sizes occurring . Then we can apply Poisson distribution to illustrate the model. The following traffic conditions need to be satisfied in order to apply Poisson distribution: 1. An arrival of a vehicle at a given point is completely independent of the occurrence of any other event. i.e. the number of vehicles arrived during the previous interval. 2. Equal intervals of time or space are equally likely to contain equal number of vehicles. When the above conditions are fulfilled we can use Poisson distribution. It should be kept in mind that it is applied to the study of number of vehicles because it is a discrete variable. The Poisson distribution can be indicated by the following form

P (x) = (mx e-m)/ x!

Where ,P (x) = Probability of arrival of x vehicles in any interval of t sec m= (average rate of arrival) * (time interval) 6.2. Validation of Poisson distribution In order to check the validity of the Poissonian arrival in a lightly trafficked street free from the influence of intersections or signals nearby a count of vehicles passing an observer was taken. The number of vehicle arriving in 20 sec each as counted and recorded are given below:

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Number of vehicles intervals with stated number of vehicles

13

23

26

24

14

Total no. of vehicles counted during the study= (0*1+4*1+2*13+3*23+4*26+5*24+6*14) =408 Total intervals = 4+13+23+26+24+14=104 m= avg. arrival per 20 sec interval=(408/104) =3.92 P (0) = (e-3.92) = 0.02 Intervals with 0 arrival= I (0)=0.02*104=2 P(1)=P(0)m= 0.08 P(2)=P(1)m/2=.15 P(3)=P(2)m/3=.2 P(4)=P(3)m/4=.193 I(1)=8 I(2)=16 I(3)=21 I(4)=20

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No. vehicles

of

13

23

26

24

14

interval(O) Expected values 20 of sec 2 8 16 21 20 16 11

interval(E)

(=O-E)/E=10.43
C= number of classes =6 Degree of freedom= 4 For a significance level of 5%, =14.86 (from table 1) , critical> , observed We conclude that Poisson distribution represents the observed distribution. 6.3. Limitations of Poisson distribution The Poisson distribution only holds good when the traffic is light, not vehicles are not inhibited by other vehicles, and the flow should be free. This is almost impossible to get these conditions right, so we need to find better way to deal.

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