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Infosys
Performance highlights
(` cr) Net revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) PAT 3QFY12 9,298 3,133 33.7 2,372 2QFY12 8,099 2,514 31.0 1,906 % chg (qoq) 14.8 24.6 265bp 24.5 3QFY11 7,106 2,363 33.3 1,780 % chg (yoy) 30.8 32.6 44bp 33.3
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code IT 153,325 1.0 3,388/2,169 146,052 5 16,038 4,831 INFY.BO INFY@IN
`2,589 `3,047
12 Months
For 3QFY2012, Infosys results came in lower than our as well as streets expectations on the USD revenue front; however, the company exceeded expectations on the INR revenue, margin and bottom-line fronts. The major disappointment came from the lowering of FY2012 USD guidance below our and consensus estimates to 16.4% from earlier 17-19% yoy. In addition, the company gave tepid revenue guidance for 4QFY2012 (almost flat qoq). We recommend a Buy rating on the stock. Quarterly highlights: For 3QFY2012, Infosys reported revenue of US$1,806mn, up 3.4% qoq, aided by 3.1% qoq volume growth and 0.8% qoq blended pricing growth. In INR terms, revenue came in at `9,298cr, up by whopping 14.8% qoq. The companys EBITDA and EBIT margin increased by 265bp and 302bp qoq to 33.7% and 31.2%, respectively, largely gaining from INR depreciation. PAT came in at `2,372cr, up 24.5% qoq. Outlook and valuation: Management commentary has turned cautious for the next years budgets and expects it to be flat to marginally negative. Also, the company is witnessing delays in ramp-ups of the deals being signed. This is clearly reflected in the muted 4QFY2012 and FY2012 guidance given by management. We believe this clearly indicates challenging visibility in business volumes and managements future expectation. We expect the company to record USD revenue growth of 16.4% and 13.1% yoy in FY2012 and FY2013, respectively. We have revised our INR assumption downwards for 4QFY2012 and FY2013 to `51.0 and `50.0, respectively, following a steep 15% depreciation against USD over the last four months. This has led to INR revenue growth to be higher than USD revenue growth at 24.1% and 16.5% yoy for FY2012 and FY2013, respectively. Over FY201113E, we expect a CAGR of 19.2% and 19.0% in EBITDA and PAT, respectively. We value the company at 18x FY2013E of `169.0 and recommend a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `3,047. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 16.0 17.5 37.4 29.1
3m (5.4) (3.4)
FY2009 21,693 30.0 5,990 28.6 33.2 104.6 24.7 7.7 31.2 29.0 6.3 19.1
FY2010 22,742 4.8 6,219 3.8 34.5 109.5 23.6 6.2 25.8 25.0 5.8 16.8
FY2011 27,501 20.9 6,823 9.7 32.6 119.5 21.7 5.4 25.0 25.9 4.8 14.6
FY2012E 34,120 24.1 8,358 22.5 32.0 146.3 17.7 4.4 25.1 26.7 3.7 11.6
FY2013E 39,767 16.5 9,656 15.5 32.0 169.0 15.3 3.6 23.8 25.8 3.1 9.5
Ankita Somani
+91 22-39357800 Ext: 6819 ankita.somani@angelbrkoing.com
3QFY12 9,298 5,054 4,244 1,111 3,133 234 2,899 422 3,321 949 2,372 41.6 45.6 33.7 31.2 24.4
2QFY12 8,099 4,511 3,588 1,074 2,514 233 2,281 387 2,668 762 1,906 33.4 44.3 31.0 28.2 22.5
% chg (qoq) 14.8 12.0 18.3 3.4 24.6 0.4 27.1 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 134bp 265bp 302bp 194bp
3QFY11 7,106 3,847 3,259 896 2,363 216 2,147 290 2,437 657 1,780 31.2 45.9 33.3 30.2 24.1
% chg (yoy) 30.8 31.4 30.2 24.0 32.6 8.3 35.0 36.3 44.4 33.3 33.3 (22)bp 44bp 96bp 34bp
9MFY12 24,882 13,918 10,963 3,141 7,822 691 7,132 1,252 8,384 2,384 6,000 105.0 44.1 31.4 28.7 23.0
9MFY11 20,251 11,042 9,209 2,569 6,640 640 6,000 796 6,796 1,791 5,005 87.6 45.5 32.8 29.6 23.8
% chg (yoy) 22.9 26.0 19.0 22.3 17.8 8.0 18.9 23.4 33.1 19.9 19.9 (141)bp (135)bp (97)bp (82)bp
3.5 2.3
2 0 (2) (4)
4QFY11 Offshore
1QFY12 Onsite
3QFY12
4.0
5.0 4.5
4.4
3.1
3.1
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
Volume growth
% to revenue % growth qoq % growth yoy 64.3 17.1 21.8 6.1 7.9 5.2 3.6 2.6 30.6 5.1 4.8 0.3 3.4 3.4 4.4 8.8 (0.3) (0.4) 9.5 (4.0) 1.4 17.2 18.2 3.4 16.9 21.8 12.9 13.9 23.3 5.8 70.9 (1.2) 9.6 0.2 1.3 (14.5)
Industry wise, revenue of FSI, the companys anchor vertical contributing 35.3% to revenue, grew by 3.4% qoq, led by 7.8% qoq growth in revenue from insurance. Revenue from banking and financial services grew by 2.3% qoq. In CC terms, revenue from FSI grew by 4.0% qoq. Going ahead, the company is seeing traction in this vertical from risk compliance, fraud prevention and regulatory kind of work. Manufacturing (contributed 20.4% to revenue) emerged as the major growth driver for the company, recording 4.5% qoq revenue growth. In CC terms, revenue from this vertical grew by 5.7% qoq. The company is seeing IT spending coming in the manufacturing industry segment from clients in terms of work related to harmonising processes and transformation to gain cost efficiency and simplicity. The RCL segment (contributed 23.1% to revenue) registered 4.3% qoq revenue growth, led by whopping 21.7% and 11.6% qoq growth in transport and logistics and lifesciences, respectively. In CC terms, revenue from RCL grew strongly by 5.3% qoq. In this industry segment, retail is gaining good traction on account of spend related to digital commerce, digital marketing and clients targeting to go global. In addition, CPG companies are investing significantly in package implementation-related services. The ECS segment (contributed 21.2% to revenue) posted merely 1.5% qoq growth in its revenue, led by 8.9% qoq growth in revenue from energy and utilities. In CC terms, revenue from this segment increased by 2.8% qoq. Going ahead, the company expects its deal pipeline to pick up for the telecom industry segment, with more spend coming in from the wireless space during the quarter. The company closed five large deals in this quarter one was a transformational deal, while the others were all business operations deals.
% to revenue 35.3 27.9 7.4 20.4 23.1 15.2 2.0 4.1 1.8 21.2 6.0 9.8 5.4
% growth qoq 3.4 2.3 7.8 4.5 4.3 0.8 21.7 11.6 3.4 1.5 8.9 (2.5) 1.6
% growth yoy 11.1 14.1 0.8 18.7 25.9 19.5 25.2 30.2 102.7 3.7 12.1 (10.5) 30.8
In terms of geographies, revenue growth was led by Europe, which posted 16.8% qoq growth in CC terms. Revenue from North America and Rest of the World grew by 1.1% and 2.5% qoq in CC terms, respectively. The company added 14 new clients in Europe in 3QFY2012 across industries, such as FSI, manufacturing and retail and logistics.
16.8
(%)
7.3 2.5
5 0
2.1
1.1
Hiring intact
Infosys added 9,655 gross employees in 3QFY2012, of which only 3,863 were lateral additions. The net addition number for the quarter stood at 3,266. Attrition, on LTM basis, declined slightly to 15.4% in 3QFY2012 from 15.6% in 2QFY2012. The company maintained its gross hiring target of 45,000 employees in FY2012. In addition, the company made 23,000 campus offers for FY2013 (27,000 for FY2012).
Utilization rate, including trainees, declined by 30bp qoq to 69.9, while utilization rate, excluding trainees, increased by merely 10bp qoq to 77.4% during the quarter.
77.3 74.9
77.4
75 70 65 60 3QFY11 4QFY11 Including trainees 1QFY12 2QFY12 Excluding trainees 3QFY12 72.6 68.4 69.6 70.2 69.9
Margins enhance
The companys EBITDA and EBIT margins improved by 265bp and 302bp qoq to 33.7% and 31.2%, respectively, largely gaining from INR depreciation. EBIT margin gain of 302bp qoq came on the back of 1) a 440bp qoq gain from INR depreciation and 2) 140bp qoq negative impact due to cost increases on account of promotions given during the quarter.
(BP)
US$300mn plus
Source: Company, Angel Research
Guidance disappoints
Management has reduced its FY2012 USD revenue growth guidance to 16.4% yoy to US$7,029mn-7,033mn from 17.1-191% yoy, mainly on account of delays in decision making from the clients side. In addition, management has given tepid revenue guidance of almost flat qoq at US$1,806mn-1,1810mn for 4QFY2012. We believe this clearly indicates challenging visibility in business volumes and managements future expectation. In addition, the company decreased its USD EPS guidance to US$3.0 from US$3.023.06 given during 2QFY2012 results, 14.5% yoy growth vs. the previous guidance of 15.3-16.8% yoy growth.
(%)
(7)
31.0
(`)
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Apr-11
Price
Source: Company, Angel Research
26x
22x
18x
14x
10x
Oct-11
10
11
12
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio (x) P/E P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS Cash EPS Dividend Book value DuPont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/sales) Asset turnover ratio (sales/assets) Leverage ratio (assets/equity) Operating ROE Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) Receivables days 3.4 74 3.4 70 3.6 78 4.3 74 4.6 74 29.0 57.4 31.2 25.0 58.7 25.8 25.9 56.1 25.0 26.7 61.8 25.1 25.8 63.6 23.8 0.9 1.1 0.3 1.0 1.2 31.2 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 25.8 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 25.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.9 1.1 25.1 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.9 1.1 23.8 105 118 23.5 336 109 125 25.0 421 119 134 34.9 477 146 162 34.9 583 169 189 34.9 710 24.7 21.9 7.7 0.9 6.3 19.1 6.2 23.6 20.7 6.2 1.0 5.8 16.8 4.8 21.7 19.3 5.4 1.3 4.8 14.6 4.2 17.7 15.9 4.4 1.3 3.7 11.6 3.4 15.3 13.7 3.6 1.3 3.1 9.5 2.7 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
13
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Infosys No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
14