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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. OVERVIEW 1.1.-Introduction -Know yourself -Know Opponent 1.2.-Terms Glossary 1.3.-General View -The Bets -The Rules -The Strategy 2. ANALYSIS 2.1.-Analysis and Selection Criteria 2.2.-Team Analysis 2.3-Match Analysis 2.4.-League Analysis 2.5.-Odds Analysis 3. BETTING 3.1.-Bet Types 4. MONEY MANAGEMENT 4.1.-Systems 4.2-Spread Betting 4.3.-Risk-free Bets 4.4.-Staking Plan 5. TRACKING 5.1.-Betting Record 5.2-Check List 6. BETTING STRATEGY 7. PSYCHOLOGY 7.1.-Common Problems 7.2.-Winning Edges -Profiling Gamblers -Essential Qualities
In the sports betting, there are 2 parts involved: you and the sportsbook. In this book you will learn everything you need to present yourself at the game and to show your best abilities. Specifically, you will learn how to win by building your own strategy and changing it when you are not satisfied with the results. After completing this book you will know what every other bettor in the world knows. No important issue will be left outside of your knowledge. You will learn the HOW and also the most important WHY of sports betting. So let’s get down to business.
Know yourself With sportsbetting as with everything else in life, it's important to set yourself a goal. If you don't have a goal with your betting, it may get out of hand. You may start betting every day, you may start betting harder to make up for earlier losses, you suddenly place impulsive bets, and the whole thing can become rather unpleasant. Therefore, take a few moments thinking over the following:
Risk profile. Who am I to tell you how you're going to bet, and where to place your bets ? You're right, I can only suggest, not command. There are no correct answers to how you should bet to make money. It all depends (among other things) on your risk profile. Therefore, an answer can only be given when you know your willingness to take risks. A bettor who wants to win big money fast, often has a risky way of betting (betting on outsiders, often with high stakes). The opposite is the bettor who's content with making a 10% profit on his bets. He has a rather low risk profile, and places his bets on a big favorite at low prices and very often with low stakes aswell. Long term/short term. This is one of the most important things to decide. Do you bet on a short term basis, or long term ? If you bet long term, you're probably willing to bet on outsiders, with a relativly low matemathical chance of winning. In that way, you don't have to win each time, but when you do win, you win a lot because the odds on outsiders are high. The question is: Have you got the patience to wait for the outsider. Will you loose patience, and start changing your strategy ? The short-term bettor will most likely bet on big favorites at small prices, and often with high stakes. He will feel he's winning often , but when he wins, the payback is so small, that one loss, and it's all down to scratch again. This is due to the bookie's fear
of favorites. The relative value on favorites is often very slim, due to the fact that the bookie fear the favorites big chance of winning (thus a large payout for the bookie, as most bettors bet on big favorites). In other words, you get less value out of each bet when you bet on big favorites, because they don't win as often as the prices offered reflect.
"Modus operandi". Some people fancy a bet just to have some excitement watching a televised footballmatch or sport event. And that's OK. They don't care too much whether they win or loose. It's just for the sake of entertainment. And these people don't bet everyday, they've got a relaxed relation to sports betting. The opposite is bettors who intend to win money on their betting, big money. Often these bettors need to play often, and they bet on low-priced games, which the bookie is very aware of, and therefore has slashed the odds notably. Therefore, these bettors don't get the long-term value which high-odds often provide. But what happens when the "entertainment-bettor" suddenly starts winning ? Yes, correct, he suddenly starts increasing his stakes, because he feels he has been lucky or clever, he's betting more often than before, and then suddenly his money has gone. This is a result of human behaviour. It seems as if we, for some strange reason, want to loose the money we've won. When we win, we don't stop, and say: "Allright, I'm satisfied". No, we stretch the limits further, and suddenly we start loosing. And when we've crossed the limits, we really don't notice it, because now we're trying to get back what we've "lost". And then everything start going downhill. If you started with 100 $, then winning 500 $, you've got a nice profit. Instead of taking the profit, you stretch the limits further, and suddenly you're down to 300 $. Still you've got a 200 % payoff, but you'll feel that 300 on the way down is much less than 300 on the way up, and therefore you'll continue betting without taking the 200 $ profit. Chances are that your profit has disappeared before you even realise what's happening... This is somewhat self destructive, but it can be dealt with if you've got a minimum of self dicipline. Dicipline. When you win, don't feel unbeatable, and start increasing your stakes straight away. Continue where you started, and remember that even though it's easy to win, it's even easier to loose what you've just gained. Ofcourse you should take your chances when you're in a winning streak, but keep in mind it's very easy to let it all get out of hand. When you're loosing, don't get tempted into irrational actions (dramaticly increasing the stakes, changing your strategy, bet on more games, etc). If your strategy has worked before, it will work again, it's all about dicipline and patience. Sometimes you will hit a bad run, and this is the time to show dicipline. Maybe take a few weeks break from betting, do something else and come back later. Time. Have you got the time to gather info about the participants in the events, or do you just put in a bet every know and then just for the sake of excitement ? Analyse what kind of time you're willing to use on this hobby, and act thereafter. Money How much money have I got at my disposal ? How much can I afford to loose ? Never
Do not bet just for the sake of a bet. It's a good advice to follow this little checklist before placing your money in the sportsbooks account: • Reliability/Credibility. Avoid bookies who do not accept straights. and pay attention to what others have to say about the bookie. but also by credit cards. In England. Is it a recognised bookie ? A well known name. It may be wise to open a new VISA account. Do not bet whith money who's intended used for housekeeping or other more important things than sports betting. it's much easier to keep updated on what's going on. and finally your money. you should not accept taxes on your winnings.bet with borrowed money. • Naturally interrested ? Are you really interrested in sports. i. and continue with your initial 100$. then it's time to call it a day. Is the bookie unreliable. Taxes. Know Opponent Before you start with online betting. and send an email and ask the bookie if you are unsure about something. the law states • • • . If you feel that the whole thing is getting boring and no fun anymore. I find it most convenient using a credit card in all my transactions with bookies. When the motivation is gone. real cash. and as a result. most bookies these days offer straight wagers on every game and in every sport. separated from your salaryaccount. Methods of payment. set a target of 500$. find another Luckily. If you reach 500$. competition in the bookmaking market has grown tougher. In this way. The bookie should have several methods of payouts. Rules. It's a must to know the rules in every game you play. or do you bet just for the sake of the possible profit? If you enjoy sports. not only by bank check. Set yourself a target. thus maybe having an extra edge on the bookie. you'll see the fruits of your work. and take the profit when you've reached the target. then have a look elsewhere. Always keep in mind that you can loose all your money. Read the rules. If the bookie only accepts parlays or teasers.e the sportsbook. there's a big chance that you will lose patience and interest. Listen to the grapevine. with a proven track record ? In other words: Is your money safe ? Check for words on the street. then start all over again. etc. the bookie pay the bettor's tax aswell as it's own taxes. and among other bettors. and it's the same story here. When betting with online sportsbooks. not only virtual money on the bookie's server. Private sportsbooks pay taxes to the country they operate in. Example: If you start with 100 $. In some countries. or very late with his payouts. it's very smart to gather som info about the "opposition". order a payout of 400$.
of course. but it can be worth having a look at the bookies' rules regarding minimum deposits. • Prices. • • • 1. who bet 10 grand rather than a tenner now and then. Stanley Cup final etc). (abide the law !!!). but have been known to occur from time to time. and never bother about minor leagues. Private bookies do generally offer most events. It's a major "pre" if your bookie offer as many events as possible. Normally this is not a problem. that when many events are offered. and your odds changes as a result of this. such as superbowl. the chances are that bettors will bet on more events than they originally had in mind. see Dime Line . What kind of odds is your bookie offering ? How is the odds compared to what others offer on the same event ? Does the bookie change the odds a lot. Some bookies demand a fortune in deposits. go find another bookie. this can be of some importance. Do not accept to pay taxes on your winnings. thus increasing the bookies chance of profit. is not offering lousy prices. but all kinds of sports. Stay away from these vultures ! Events offered. you should get the odds which was offered at the time you placed your bet. this is not important. GLOSSARY TERMS 10 Cent Line . The bookie's behaviour is then nothing but unacceptable and he's not worthy an honest customer like yourself. and bookies who do not offer you the chance to bet on lower leagues.The money line difference (10 cents) between what a bettor would lay with the favorite or take back with the underdog.Do not accept bookies who only cover a few sports. Check if your bookie has got a very low maximum winnings. Minimum deposits Hopefully you will only have to deposit your hard-earned cash once. The clever bookie knows. or who often exclude big favorites from their event list.2. Maximum winnings.that bettors must pay a tax of 9% on their winnings. not only soccer. Infact. unless you are situated in Britain and with local sportsbooks. If the bookie alter the odds on your event after you've placed your bet. Some bookies only offer odds on the top leagues. Online sportsbooks do not charge taxes on a bettors winnings. The worst thing a bookie can do. and is the bookie presenting his prices for events early in the week ? Even though the bookies do alter their odds (often done on popular events. but for the tough guys. the worst thing is not offering you the opportunity to bet on an event. For the average bettor.
Also known as the book.The money line difference (20 cents) between what a bettor would lay with the favorite or take back with the underdog A Across The Board . the store.$100 Bookie -A person or business that sets the line on sports events and takes bets.Messenger bettor Buck . C Chalk . The money line difference (10 cents) between what a bettor would lay with the favorite or take back with the underdog. injuries.A wager of any kind B Bad Beat .A method of wagering on a horse to win.Game where action is limited due to uncertainties about weather.Tough Loss Beard .$1000 Dime Line .Two separate baseball games played on the same day for the same two teams E Edge . the man. see 10 Cent Line.20 Cent Line .Underdog Dollar . etc.Favorite Circled Game .Win by more than the pointspread D Dead Heat .When two horses finish in a tie Dime .Advantage . Cover . sportsbook. Dog .$100 Double Header . place and show Action .Slang used to designate the 10 cent money line.
Betting a lot.A slang word for the over/under total for the combined score of all the hockey contests on the schedule for that day.g.The contestant in any given contest that is considered the most talented. U. Open. betting during the season on the Super Bowl winner.S.S.Wagers made. G Get Down . Also in baseball. Also the four major golf tournaments: The Masters. .Information the sportsbook is not yet privy to.Slang word used to indicate the game of basketball Home Field Advantage . A player who is "firing" is wagering large sums "Foots" .Slang word used sometimes for football Futures . Grand Salami .Basketball Hot Tip .Bet the opposite of your original wager in order to reduce the amount of exposure you have on a game Hook .Action other than a straight bet or parlay Exposure . U.Even Money . scoring four runs.Final four teams in the NCAA basketball tournament Firing . British Open.A line on only the first half. or lines/odds posted on an event or outcome taking place some time in the future.The four major tennis tournaments: Wimbledon.Make a bet Grand Slam .Edge the home team is expected to have as a result of familiarity with the playing area. favorable demographics and effect of travel on the visiting team Hoops . Australian Open.The amount of money one actually stands to lose on a game or race Favorite . e. a homerun with the bases loaded. Open.Half point in pointspreads "Hoops" . French Open. PGA Championship (Professional Golf Association). H Halftime Line .One who studies sports and predicts outcomes Hedge .A wager on which neither side lays any odds or vigorish Exotic Bet . or only the second half scoring of a football or basketball game Handicapper . or has the best chance to win the contest Final Four .
you've middled the book. or pointspread of any given contest Listed Pitcher (LP) . if you bet the underdog +3 1/2 and the favorite -2 1/2 and the favorite wins by 3.National Football League .A wager on a favorite in a money line contest Limit . most often refers to the 11 to 10 football bettors lay on straight wagers. L Lay the Points .A wager on a favorite in a pointspread contest Lay The Price .Sportsbook’s commission.The money line. For example.Major League Baseball Moneyline .International Boxing Federation J Juice . MLB .To win both sides of a game.National Basketball Association NCAA . odds.I IBF .National Collegiate Athletic Association Neutral Site . N NBA . The book has been middled.Large underdog M Middle . Leagues give MVP Awards to the best regular-season and to the outstanding player in championship games or series.Maximum bet accepted by the house before the price will be changed Line . Also known as vigorish. court or field where neither side has a home field advantage NFL .Easy Winner Longshot .The amount you must bet to win 100 or the amount you win if you bet 100 MVP .Most Valuable Player.Arena.The pitcher or pitchers listed by Las Vegas odds makers as probable starting pitchers for a scheduled baseball game Lock .
Game where no bets are being accepted Over/Under . or one cent at a time Pick or Pick'em .A game where neither team is favored Player .National Hockey League Nickel .The moneyline odds on the favorite of a given match "Pucks" .The handicap.A slang word used to indicate the game of hockey Puppy . or the total points number R Rain Out .A contest that has been canceled because of bad weather Round Robin . or head start.To bet a larger amount than usual Price .The continuance of a contest that is tied at the end of regulation time until a winner is determined or the maximum number of overtime periods have expired.A bet with two or more teams where all the teams must win for the bettor to be successful Past Post . A three-team round robin consists of one three-team .When the odds on a proposition are in favor of the bettor rather than the house Overtime . P Parlay .Bettor. gambler Pointspread .A bet on whether the combined total of the points/goals scored by the two teams will exceed or be less than a specified number Overlay .A money line that is adjusted in increments of a penny.A series of parlays.NHL .$500 NIT .National Invitational Tournament O Off The Board .To make a bet after an event has started Penny Line . which the favorite gives to the underdog for betting purposes Press .Underdog Push .A tie between the bettor and the sportsbook that is the result of the score of an event falling exactly on the pointspread number.
A line that has been adjusted or moved as a result of action and does not reflect the true line as posted. or side. Side Bet/Side Wager .NHL Championship Steam . to win a contest Soft Line .parlay and three two-team parlays Rundown .NFL Championship game T Take A Price . see beard Ryder Cup . but are games that the mass of bettors somehow decide to key on Straight Bet .Withdraw.Messenger bettor. if you lay -2 1/2 and take 3 on the same game and the favorite wins by 3 you have sided the book.To win one side and tie the other.One who attempts to profit from the differences in odds from book to book by betting both sides of the same game at different prices Score .A wager on a particular team.Line update Runner . For example. The book has been sided.When a betting line starts to move quite rapidly. Spread .An overtime period in which the first contestant to score is declared the winner of the contest Superbowl . Most "steam games" do not necessarily reflect the "right side".A wagering line that is not current with the true posted line.A wager on the underdog in a moneyline contest Take The Points .To win a lot of money Scratch .A single wager on a selected side or over/under Sudden Death . cancel Sharp .A wager on the underdog in a pointspread contest Teaser .A golf tournament between American and European golfers that is staged every two years S Scalper .Wise guy Side .A bet on 2 or more teams where the line on each team is adjusted in the favor of the .An abbreviated form of pointspread Stanley Cup .
The 64 team.bettor.An overlay Vigorish . We will focus on Baseball and .The contestant in any given contest that is considered the least talented.World Boxing Council Wise Guy . The straight wager is the most common wager placed. see over/under Tout Service .When the odds on a proposition are in favor of the house V Value . post season college basketball championship tournament Toss Up . all selections must be correct for the teaser to win The Big Dance . Also known as juice. Like a Parlay.MLB championship.Womens National Basketball Association World Series .. representing the combined number of points/goals scored by the two teams.The line on a given contest.A business that sells opinions on sporting events U Underdog .World Boxing Association WBC .Established and successful sports bettor WNBA .3. most often refers to the 11 to 10 football bettors lay on straight wagers. or has the least chance to win the contest Underlay . The final seven games of the baseball playoffs between the two league champions to determine the world champion 1.Game where the line is close to pick-em Total .Sportsbook's commission. W WBA . GENERAL VIEW The Bets Straight Wager: A straight wager is a wager on one particular team or side to win a game.
For the player to win the wager. which is more than the –7 pointspread. Types of Straight Wagers: A. The 7 points is considered the "Pointspread. or lose by less than 7 points. they must bet (or risk) $110. If the player wants to win $100 on Oakland. If Denver wins the game 28-10. once you are comfortable with football you will be able to process wagers on Basketball as they are also identical. Visiting Team: Denver –7 Home Team: Oakland +7 *** Visiting Team is Player A has two wagering options on this game: • Option #1: The player can wager on Denver at –7. On a pointspread wager. • Option #2: The player can wager on Oakland at +7. the wager is . the player loses the $110 bet. Run Line Wager: Run Line wagering is only offered for Baseball A. If they lose by exactly 7. and Oakland at +7 is considered to be the underdog. Pointspread Wager: The pointspread wager is the standard wager for Football and Basketball. If Player A wants to win $100 on Denver. Example: (Football) The posted line on the football game between the Denver Broncos and the Oakland Raiders is Denver –7. Once you are comfortable with Baseball you will be able to process wagers on Hockey as they are very similar. Denver must win by more than 7 points. the team wagered on must win by the pointspread for the player to win the wager.Football. they must risk $110. Pointspread Wager: Pointspread wagering is only offered for Football and Basketball B. As well. However. Over/Under Wager: Over/Under wagering is offered for all four major sports D." Denver at –7 is considered to be the favorite. the wager is considered a "Push" and the original funds are refunded back to the players wagering account. Moneyline Wager: Moneyline wagering is offered for all four major sports C. Oakland must either win the game. If Denver Wins by exactly 7 points. For the player to win the wager. Player A wins $100. Player A won the bet because Denver won by 18. if Denver loses 10-28.
Example 2: (Football) Arizona Cardinals +10 New Orleans Saints –10 • Player B wants to win $50 on the underdog. If the player bets $100 on the Braves and the Braves win 5-1. is always the underdog. player C wins $50. The team wagered on simply has to win the game for the player to win their bet. Visiting Team: Atlanta Braves +135 Home Team: NY Yankees -155 A player has two wagering options on this game: • Option #1: The player can wager on the Braves at +135. Example 1: (Baseball) The posted line on the baseball game between the Atlanta Braves and the New York Yankees is Atlanta +135 and the New York Yankees –155. or no sign at all. Arizona +10. B. Moneyline wagering is simply wagering on the contest based on a given price rather than a pointspread. player B loses $55. The Yankees at –155 are considered to be the favorite. If Arizona loses by exactly 10 points. then the player wins $135. The team with a minus (-) sign next to them is always the favorite and the team with a plus (+) sign. the wager is a push and the funds are refunded. If New Orleans wins by exactly 10 points. Moneyline Wager: The moneyline wager is used in all four of the major sports. player B wins $50. The official wager would be risking $220 to win $200 on New Orleans –10. If Arizona loses by more than 10 points. If Arizona loses by less than 10 points. but is the standard wager for betting on Baseball and Hockey. and the Braves at +135 are considered to be the underdog. If New Orleans wins by less than 10 points. the wager is a push and the funds are refunded. • Player C wants to win $200 on New Orleans –10. or wins the game. If New Orleans wins by more than 10 points. However if the Braves lose .considered a "Push" and the original funds are refunded back to the players wagering account. player C loses $55. The official wager would be risking $55 to win $50 on Arizona +10.
If the Yankees win the game 4-0 then the player wins $100. this is because the line on Chicago is –140. If the player wants to win $100 on the Yankees. the player wins $100. To win $100 the player must risk $140. If Cleveland wins the game. Example 2: (Baseball) Cleveland Indians +120 Chicago White Sox –140 • Player A places a wager on Cleveland +120 for $100. C. the player loses $140. • Player B places a wager on Chicago –140 to win $100. The Over/Under wager is a wagering option where the player must choose to bet Over the listed total. overtime included. This poinspread is listed as follows: Philadelphia +6 Cincinnati -6 Total: 44 ½ Over/Under: 42 Points . The Braves simply have to win the game for the player to win the wager. If the Yankess lose the game 0-4. If Chicago loses the game. The Yankees simply have to win the game for the player to win the wager. If Chicago wins the game. Over/Under Wager: The Over/Under wager is used in all four major sports and is an extremely popular wager. With an over/under wager. Louis -7 The Over/Under points listed at 42 is called the "TOTAL" for the game Example 2: (Football) The posted line on the Football game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Cincinnati Bengals is Cincinnati –6 with the Total of 44 ½. then they must wager $155 to win $100.1-5 they lose the $100 they risked. the total points of the contest by both teams. the total points the wager is based on is called the "TOTAL." Example 1: (Football) The posted line on the football game between San Francisco and St. must fall over or under the side selected. the player loses $100. If Cleveland loses the game. • Option #2: The player can wager on the Yankees -155. the player loses the $155 they risked. On an Over/Under wager. Louis is: San Francisco +7 St. or Under the listed total. the player wins $120.
Run Line Wagering is simply wagering on the event based on a pointspread and a moneyline combined.5. Player A would win $500 because the score exceeded 441/2.5 -140 . • Option #1: Player A wagers $550 to win $500 on the Over 44 ½. Note: The wager cannot "Push" as the listed total is 9 ½. they can bet on Philadelphia +6. Run Line Wager: The Run Line wager is offered only in Baseball and is not a frequently placed wager. Florida +1. Player A loses $120. The only 2 wagering options we will consider in this example is the Over 44 ½ and the Under 44 ½. Player A wins $100. If the final score is 7-5. If the final score is 20-10. • Player B wagers $120 to win $100 on the Under 9. the total combined points of both teams must exceed 44 ½. while the -140 for Florida and the +120 for Arizona is the moneyline. Player A loses his $550 wager because the total combined score was only 30 points. • Player A wagers $100 to win $100 on the Over 9.5 +120 and the Florida Marlins +1. or Under 44 ½ points. The Example 3: (Baseball) Atlanta Braves +125 Baltimore Orioles -145 • Total: 9 ½ Under –120 Over +100 Over/Under wagers can also have a moneyline. D. If the final score is 6-4. If the final score is 4-3. Player A wins $100. The team wagered on must win by the pointspread in the same fashion of the pointspread wager. This will be provided to you by the software and needs no additional training. which is covered thoroughly in training.The Player has 4 wagering options on this game. which is Under 44 ½.5 for Arizona is the pointspread. Example 1: (Baseball) The posted Run Line on the baseball game between the Florida Marlins and the Arizona Diamondbacks is Arizona –1. Over 44 ½ points. If the final score is 4-0. the game has to either go over or under the total. Cincinnati – 6.5 -140. Player A loses $100. For Player A to Win his wager. The +1. • Option #2: Player B wagers $330 to win $300 on the Under 44 ½.5 for Florida and the –1. If the final Score is 31-24. You only need to be able to Quote the line correctly. For Player B to Win his wager. the total combined points of both teams must fall below 44 ½.5.
player B wins $360. The Rules Sports Betting rules: (How to bet. If Florida loses by 2 runs.5 +180.5 -140.5 runs.5 –140 or Arizona –1.5 +120. types of bets. If Detroit wins the game by more than 1.5. Player B wins $120.5 then Player A loses the $320 he risked. For Player A to win his wager. or only wins by 1 run.Arizona -1. Player B loses $200.5 -160 Detroit Tigers -1. They can wager on Florida +1.5 +180 • Player A wants to win $200 on Kansas City +1.5 +120. If Arizona wins by 2 runs. For Player B to win his wager. Florida has to either win the game. To win $200 the player must risk $320. • Option #1: Player A wants to win $100 on Florida +1. If Arizona only wins by 1 run. he will be credited $360 ($200 risked multiplied by the +180 moneyline). Example 2: (Baseball) Kansas City Royals +1. • Player B wants to risk $200 on Detroit –1. Player B loses the $100.5 runs. To win $100 the player must risk $140 due to the moneyline.) . Arizona has to win the game by more than 1.5 +120 The player has 2 wagering options on this event. or loses by only 1 run. Player A wins $200.5 –160. If Kansas City wins the game. the player loses his bet because they lost by more than 1. If he is risking $200 and Player B wins his wager. • Option #2: Player B wants to risk $100 on Arizona –1. or lose by only 1 run. If Kansas City loses by more than 1. If Detroit loses the game.
you go to a sportsbook.sign for the underdog. If the favorite wins by the exact Pointspread. including points scored in overtime. A kind of 'let-it-ride' bet. physical or online. This establishes the odds for each team but inversely proportional to what would have been a Pointspread. Below is a list of the more common types of bets. and so on. A parlay bet can yield huge dividends if won. Hockey. one team has to win outright. if you bet for the underdog. to buy Key Points. Buy Points. A multiple bet. Snooker and Soccer games. such as. You get your bet back. a double parlay becomes a straight bet. For every $180 you bet on A you would win $100 or lose $180. You bet on a winner at given odds. the type of bet and the amount you are wagering. There are many types of bets you can place. otherwise you lose your bet even if the team wins. You need to state what you are betting on by making a selection. placing a bet on your favorite sport event makes the game exciting and more enjoyable. . then it is a push or a tie. Some sportsbooks may offer more betting varieties and combinations than others. You could also bet over the phone with many sportsbooks. and is indicated by a + for the underdog and a sign for the favorite. Pointspread. A bet that the combined number of points scored by the two teams in the game will be Over or Under the total set by the oddsmaker. Say team A is favorite and quoted at -180 and B is the underdog at + 120. a triple parlay becomes a double. To eliminate a tie result. Basketball.The main object of sports betting is to beat the 'Oddsmakers' or the 'Odds Compilers' and win some money. but for every $100 you bet on B you would win $120 or lose $100. You can bet on the outcome of several sporting events. Your selection will obviously depend on the odds offered. Total. The Pointspread is the number of points allocated and is shown with a + sign for the favorite and a . Over/Under. To place sports bet. that team has to lose by less than the Pointspread for you to win. This bet lets you bet on a winner from two selections who have been made equal by allocating appropriate points to the underdog team. The sportsbook simply accepts sports bets. the oddsmakers sometimes include a half pointspread. Also. your parlay is automatically reduced by one selection. so you will want to examine the range of odds available before you make a decision. All the selections made must win for you to win the parlay. Parlay or Accumulator. An oddsmaker is a person who sets the betting odds. The favorite has to win by more than the Pointspread for you to win. Baseball. Tennis. This is the simplest and most common bet. The bets offered would be 10:18 odds-on for the favorite. and 12:10 for the underdog. postponed or cancelled. A bet for the number of points scored in the game by both teams combined. Move the Pointspread favorably at a price. Inversely. The Moneyline. • • • • • • • Straight bet or Single. Additionally. Football. If a game is a tie. Since scores use full numbers only. Making simultaneous selections on two or more games with the intent of pressing the winnings of the first win on the bet of the following game selected. Note that a sportsbook or sportsbook is not the same as an oddsmaker. Betting is done through Sportsbooks (US) or Bookmakers (UK) entities that accept bets.
tactics. When betting a teaser additional points are either added to the underdog or subtracted from the favorite. usually on 'Exotic' bets. A bet that allows the bettor to make a second wager. A bet on a future event. A few others will take bets on just about anything you can think of. At the start of each season. all selections must win for the teaser to win. The odds vary according to the number of points the spread is moved and the number of teams combined to form the teaser. Betting on unusual events.) The odds offer has to be at least 2:1 to make it worthwhile. analyze them and act on your findings accordingly. Some sportsbooks post odds and take bets on a wide variety of other sports related events and activities. the sportsbooks give out odds for teams to win a certain championship. up to an equal amount. Exotic Bets. multiple. Teasers odds are usually worse than the parlays. choose a selection with a slightly higher risk to prop up the price. if at all. As in the parlay. technique. Take advantage of those situations. Future. The value of the odds must be such that the sportsbook's commission is to a minimum. Proposition Bet or Prop Bet. but if you win you get paid at the original odds that you took. This is possibly one of the most profitable bets if you have considerable knowledge of the sport that you are betting on including the players. The value of the odds (overpriced or underpriced?) 3. Open Wager. what type of bet to place and how much.• • • • • • Teaser. Some lines get 'steamed' unnecessarily. combination. the 'favorite' price lengthens. If-wager. The odds offer (Price) 2. Open wagers allow the bettor to play teasers or parlays making a selection at different times and even different days. not too difficult to win and have good winning potential: the Straight bet. To create an opportunity to be a winner. the Doubles and the Future. plan. you need to take into account three main factors. If necessary. but with the option to add or subtract points (called 'moving the line') from one or more Spread bets. The odds change as the game date approaches and in most cases get shorter. and a good sense of judgment. Three types of bets seem to stand out as a sensible combination to use because they are simple. When this happens. etc. The type of bet (single. It is like a parlay. These are: 1.) The challenge of sports betting is to collect and analyze information and then make a sound judgment on what to bet on. method. pending a win on the first selection. . system. The Strategy How to win at sports betting: (Strategy. An offer of bets at odds and conditions chosen by the sportsbook.
at least not immediately. Avoid outside influences. In general. wait until each team has played at least 6 matches so that your recent form analysis is valid. you will learn to spot them fairly quickly. Define a bankroll at the beginning of the year or season and stick to it. Four important things you should look for in a sportsbook: Are they members of a known Gambling Association? How quick do they pay out? How accessible is their customer service? What happens when there is a dispute? Do’s And Don'ts The following Do's And Don'ts are a must for any successful bettor. Do not bet at the beginning of the season. Limit your selections and betting money. Do your homework before signing up to an online sportsbook. The exception being that the odds are favorable to covering your bet (i. Playing too many selections is gambling against high odds. as recent team form is only consistent within the boundaries of that league. cover bet with a draw). you must put back in your pocket some or most of your winnings. If you want to be in control. Look for value odds as much as likely winners. Avoid favorites and long shots (outsiders) too. Betting successfully requires discipline. Be selective . stick by your decision. It is best not to replay your winnings. Not a wise thing to do on a regular basis. while betting intelligently. manageable and not too difficult to win. Play it whenever you can.e. A straight bet is simple. If you keep looking for them. Define a staking system and stick to it. A 'Future' bet is possibly one of the most profitable bets if you have considerable knowledge of the sport that you are betting on including the players. and a good sense of judgment. stick to betting on League Matches.Sports Betting tips: • • • • • • • Keep it entertaining and fun to do. Do not assume that there are any 'sure things'. a minimum of the last six matches. With time you should improve your assessment ability and judgment. Bet only what you can afford. Play it but always weigh up the odds. Do not bet on local derbies or evenly balanced teams. Do not bet on teams or leagues that you don't know anything about. Any result is possible. After analyzing your bets. .don't bet on anything or everything. Your Selection Criteria must include recent form. Try to specialize on chosen leagues.
Likewise a big win can cause some bettors to become flippant and bet more frequently and sporadically. Define your Selection Criteria Strategies. You may not be suited to gambling and an up to-date record will highlight this. A big loss can cause some bettors to chase their losses by betting big and for high returns thus accumulating bigger losses. Discipline is the key. The variance on returns across sportsbooks can be substantial.Do not work with more than 3 Selection Criteria Strategies. especially if it is a losing bet. Analyze all bets after the fact. Bet only on the smallest combinations of results feasible. returns and losses. Do not bet for the sake of it. 4+ accumulators may give big returns but they are also the hardest to achieve. fine-tune them as you go. 2. ANALYSIS 2. Bet only when the odds are in you favor. Learn by your mistakes and/or experiences. Always remain calm especially after a big win or loss. Bet only when you deem the odds to be fair or acceptable for your bet. Keep an up to-date record of all bets.1. Determine the best return on your bet from various Sportsbooks. ANALYSIS AND SELECTION CRITERIA . especially on multiple bets or accumulators.
Individual Bettors from there knowledge and experiences will use in addition to some of the criteria below.2.Analysis and Selection Criteria section goes into to details on the various types of analysis that the bettor will go through to obtain a list of selected teams to bet on. RecentForm. Teasers) Maximum Return (Best Sportsbook or Bet Facilitator). their own criteria as to what teams to bet on. Leagueform. Fair or Acceptable Odds 2. No. A Bettor in determining their Selection Criteria will include some of criteria listed below. Home v Away Records League Analysis %Home Wins. TEAM ANALYSIS There are numerous factors on which a team can be analyzed. Playing at Home/Away Match Analysis Team Rating Comparisons (RateForm. of games in the last 2 weeks. Parlays. Combo). A Selection Criteria is a combination of different analyzed components that provide the Bettor with the best teams to bet on in their opinion. leagueform. Date of most recent game. There are 4 types of analysis that a bettor may do Team Analysis Ratings (RateForm. No. %. The following is a list of such factors. Sequences. Combo). This list is the tip of the ice berg for Team Analysis. RecentForm. Averages. %Away Wins Odds Analysis Bet Type (Straight. Team Moral General moral of the team Injuries Last Game Any key injuries. of injuries. . Streaks. Injuries.
% Win % Loss All Home Games . Goal Diff Ave. Goal Diff Ave. . Last 4 Games.Pts Ave. Sequences . Home & Away Goal Diff Ave....% Win % Loss Loss All Away Games .% Win % Loss Last 6 Games .. Away Pts Ave. Percentages All Games .Pts Ave.Challenging Challenging for title? New Manager Team has new manager New Signings Team has new players. ComboA rating calculation based on the team's recent form and league form.% Win % Averages All Games . Home Pts Ave.% Win % Loss Loss Last 4 Away Games . Last 6 Games ... Team Ratings RateForm A rating calculation based on the Rateform RecentForm A rating calculation based on the team's last 6 league matches. Leagueform A rating calculation based on the team's league matches.% Win % Last 4 Home Games .. Away Pts Ave.Home Pts Ave.
For the 4 major sports in the US: football (National Football League).no. Losing Sequence fixture.average of TDs allowed per game from rushes . there are different characteristics to take into consideration when you make the team analysis. of consecutive league matches since the team lost.Winning Sequence fixture. Defense . some teams have a strong collective game.TotalDefenseRank. meanwhile others rely on the shape and skills of their star players to build their wins.Rush TDsAllowedPer Game. of consecutive league defeats prior to the current Streaks Since a Win .RushDefenseRank-the rank of the defense in what the average length of rushes is concerned compared to the other teams. The short term forecast will be mostly related to the general shape. but you don’t know which matches they will win and which they will lose. . It means that at the end of the season.the rank of the defense in the league in comparison with the other teams. The analysis of the team will give you only an indication about the overall performance of a team and not the performance in each and every game.no.no.PassDefenseRank-the rank of the defense for the length of passes compared to the rest of the teams form the league. Some teams base their game on the strength of their defense and others on the capacity of their offense to score points. The stats of each team are shown by the overall form indicators of the team and they give you some sort of indication about the future performance of the team in question. . the performance of a team will reflect their stats throughout the season. Since a Loss . Besides. of consecutive league wins prior to the current . and hockey (National Hockey League. .Rush TdsAllowed. but there are cases when the team that is in good shape will lose to an underdog. baseball (Major League Baseball). . of consecutive league matches since the team win.Games .no. You analyze the team from two points of view: defense and offense. but there are cases when a team that plays lousy can win a game.number of TouchDowns allowed from rushes . basketball (National Basketball Association). Football In football there are several indicators of the two main departments of a team: defense and offense.
3 4 1.0 2 0.Run YardsPer Game .average of yards allowed to pass per game.3 8 2.0 3 0.Pass TDsPer Game .0 89 4 29 24 30 3 0.Pass TdsAllowed..Pass TDs .5 5 1.3 105 4 9 26 3 4 1.0 125 4 24 23 18 3 0.PassOffenseRank .7 63 4 10 10 14 3 0.3 184 4 17 25 8 4 1.8 8 2.Pass TDsAllowedPer Game.5 6 1.8 141 3 13 4 26 1 0.8 111 4 6 22 6 1 0.5 136 3 22 12 29 1 0.Rush TDsPer Game .3 3 1.5 3 0.0 87 4 18 20 13 1 0.0 2 0. The tables with the stats for each team look like this and they will be adjusted after every game that each team plays. Offense .0 118 4 26 21 25 5 1.Run YardsAllowedPer Game.3 5 1. Defense NFL Team Arizona Cardinals Atlanta Falcons Baltimore Ravens Buffalo Bills Carolina Panthers Chicago Bears Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns Dallas Cowboys Denver Broncos Detroit Lions Green Bay Packers Houston Texans Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville Jaguars Kansas City Chiefs Miami Dolphins Minnesota Vikings Rush Pass Run Total Rush Pass Rush TDs Pass TDs Yards Y Games Defense Defense Defense TDs Allowed TDs Allowed Allowed A Rank Rank Rank Allowed Per Allowed Per Per Game Game Game G 4 21 15 23 4 1.Pass YardsAllowedPer Game.number of TouchDowns allowed with the action coming from a pass .3 99 4 28 28 24 6 1.8 91 .Games .Rush TDs .average of TDs allowed per game from passes .8 3 0.TotalOffenseRank .3 7 1.8 115 4 16 7 20 5 1.3 108 3 11 2 27 0 0.RushOffenseRank .8 4 1.5 150 4 8 16 10 2 0.7 7 2.Pass YardsPer Game.3 5 1.average of yards allowed to run per game .0 9 2.0 93 3 30 32 15 5 1.3 3 0.8 131 4 14 27 4 2 0.7 72 4 4 8 9 1 0.
8 2 10 3 3 7 6 6 8 9 2 4 0 4 7 0. Louis Rams Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tennessee Titans Washington Redskins 4 4 3 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 7 23 32 25 31 19 2 27 3 20 12 1 5 15 13 19 9 31 30 1 6 29 5 11 18 17 3 14 12 21 32 5 28 31 2 17 7 22 11 1 19 16 5 3 1 4 5 1 4 5 2 1 3 1 2 3 1.3 0.5 2.7 2 4 22 27 15 1 0.0 2.5 4 4 31 21 28 4 1.5 0.8 5 Pass TDs Per Game 1.0 1.8 0.0 5 3 1 4 4 3 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.3 6 4 30 29 24 0 0. Offense Rush Total Rush Pass Rush TDs Pass Games Offense Offense Offense TDs Per TDs Rank Rank Rank Game 4 16 28 8 2 0.7 1.New England Patriots New Orleans Saints New York Giants New York Jets Oakland Raiders Philadelphia Eagles Pittsburgh Steelers San Diego Chargers San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks St.3 0.3 2 4 29 31 10 6 1.0 1.8 1.5 1.0 1.3 0.5 2.8 0.3 0.0 4 4 21 1 32 5 1.3 7 4 14 17 13 3 0. the part of their defense that is weak.5 4 3 26 3 31 1 0.3 0.0 1.3 0.0 2. these indicators are not absolute and you should take into account other factors from other analysis criteria.3 7 4 27 24 22 1 0. However.3 Run Yards Per Game 76 93 196 52 162 105 79 70 153 163 86 129 105 92 100 Pass Yards Per Game 234 159 104 227 125 127 218 192 240 185 200 203 222 226 206 NFL Team Arizona Cardinals Atlanta Falcons Baltimore Ravens Buffalo Bills Carolina Panthers Chicago Bears Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns Dallas Cowboys Denver Broncos Detroit Lions Green Bay Packers Houston Texans Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville Jaguars .7 1.3 4 3 32 15 30 2 0.3 0. The numbers are indicators of the relative strength of each team’s defense and.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.0 0. also.0 2 4 7 2 25 5 1.0 1.0 1.3 6 4 12 12 19 5 1.8 96 108 90 174 154 58 86 150 74 93 107 107 63 98 You can base your team analysis on these charts.8 4 4 15 22 11 1 0.3 0.7 1.5 1.8 1.3 9 4 18 18 17 3 0.5 0.8 1.8 2.0 0.
What football has been told about is also true.96 13.5 0.0 0. but the indicators are different.3 147 146 146 105 98 110 52 82 132 91 135 133 126 86 94 69 131 194 184 230 202 203 238 238 208 150 277 204 222 177 250 253 220 236 That’s why on the offense chart looks like it is a separate indicator from the defense. the Dallas Cowboys have the 1st rank offense and the 13th rank defense and the TampaBay Buccaneers are the 1st rank defense and the 8th rank offense. The performance of the defense might be related by no means with the offense.3 2.8 1.8 .462 .0 1.0 1.8 0.3 1.3 81.3 24.0 1.5 19. and you can see this fact. They can win a game on their own.795 120. otherwise their average will not look so good.9 No Team Off Def Reb Ast Stl Blk To Pf Dreb Oreb .0 0. Louis Rams Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tennessee Titans Washington Redskins 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 9 13 2 17 20 6 24 23 28 3 10 5 19 11 8 25 4 5 6 7 16 19 14 32 26 10 23 8 9 13 25 20 30 11 23 26 9 21 20 5 6 16 29 1 18 12 27 3 2 14 7 8 3 4 1 2 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 2 1 4 2.3 30.Kansas City Chiefs Miami Dolphins Minnesota Vikings New England Patriots New Orleans Saints New York Giants New York Jets Oakland Raiders Philadelphia Eagles Pittsburgh Steelers San Diego Chargers San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks St.5 1.0 1.0 1.4 10. there has to be some balance between the two departments for a team to win.319.87.5 1.66 3.7 0.0 0. Fgm3gmFtmPct Pct Pct eff a a a 37.7 2.3 0. For instance.8 41. Certainly.8 97.5 1.7 2.8 18. You need to consider also the fact that the overall performance of a team might be based on their star players and you should take into account the shape of the key players of the teams that have this characteristic.3 1.0 4 5 10 5 5 6 2 5 0 5 5 5 6 6 5 8 5 1.81 Sacramento 102.3 0.3 0.3 1.3 2.0 1. Basketball The sport has its own set of stats that show the performance of the team.3 0.0 1. Team analysis for basketball looks like the example below.0 0.401 . regardless of what the team does as a whole.8 0.3 1.2 26.8 1.2 8.
1 29.1 31.020 Utah 88.5 45.5 78.5 84.428 .1 15.0 42.9 2 .6 80.0 93.746 101.448 .5 20.363 .0 26.5 .336 .15.2 29.9 23.83 15.6 Jersey 40.3 30.9 7.1 84.63 4.3 87.0 .1 79.776 102.4 .2 97.7 22.519.2 .7 13.775 110.8 36.0 12.8 .5 12.5 8.5 11.442 .813 Indiana 91.443 .1 82.68 Cleveland 92.5 12.436 .020.793 103.8 97.3 81.34.725 98.38 14.3 22.1 20.0 13.7 28.8 19.4 15.3 32.27 11.517.5 81.3 94.443 5.746 98.3 25.8 8.0 90.518.Lakers 98.1 33.8 34.0.7 21.5 24 Phoenix 94.2 94.6 19.74 14.9 40.57 15.420 .1 32.8 .6 21..7 8.94 L.4 29.75.6 ..2 10.1 42.6 24.9 14.5 42.3 23.2 17.8 40.118.3 12.5 13.8 39.764 105.1 .3 23.4 12.693 111.442 .2 7.1 21.86.5 40.1 20.2 24.8 23.373 .2 .7 .8 45.0 18.104.22.1685 102.412 Portland 90.4 11.217 Boston 95.09 6.334 .65 4.321 .9 12.89 14.87 5.6 15.7 20.1 20.6 80.7 20.2 96.3 30.5 42.15.423 Philadelphia 88.06 4.7 8.76 4.2 Antonio 32.15.9 11.435 .722 Atlanta 92.2 23.3 10.04.6 20.55 15.6 21.5 35.433 .4 9.6 30.4 85.1 York 34.1 42.29 Denver 97.3 9.017.315 .6 36.342 .1 32.022.5 13.4 13.335 .4 79.218.4 43.8 22.8 91.7New 14 91.8 6.2 45.98 15.5 77.15.5 .2San 19 91.6 24.72 13.7 7.7 80.681 105.06 6.731 103.3 41.7 12.345 17.1 97.70 6.7 40.0 30.816.94 14.Clippers 94.781 112.0 12.1 82.0 43.0 11.1 20.24.611 Seattle 97.74.7 35.A.66 Minnesota 94.9 8.55.3 34.6 88.0 6.727 111.767 110.2 100.5 20.65.96 15.0 7.6 Orleans 33.44.2 12.5 7.350 .9 9.441 .4 21.454 .216.65 3.753 104.93 14.6 24.0New 90.5 8.7 22.8 25.725 103.6 .445 .2 21.321 .5 28.8 99.346 .350 .1 10.24 4.34.428 .447 .9Golden 18 93.61 14.7 24.88.3 30.04 6.4 21.433 .018.0 41.7 94.2 32.6 28.6 33.1 20.7 22.319 .3 36.54 12.4 23.57 13.617.2 22.9 13.750 101.1 14.342 .58 13.7 13.8 29.414 .7 75.5 .336 ..2 .1 34.344 .1 20.2 20.9 80.5 14.9 29.98 4.9 29.3 8.1 23.3 96.015 Detroit 22.214.171.1249.05 Memphis 96.63.17 13.3 21.5 25.54.0 11.021 L.7 State 34.03 Dallas 105.2 21.1 24.7 .3 42.4 15.3 21.753 96.4 7.7 96.8 21.348 .8 20.3 36.5 89.346 .15 6.462 .9 12.2 23.4 8.4 .6 22.02 4.56 14.5 9.118.32 4.5 .6 12.7 29.9 8.217.04 4.7 .6 26.3 82.0 29.0 26.2 16.7 36.8New 16 92.3 35.6 22.7 29.3 43.7 92.08 5.8 .016.3 .3 79.00 5.6 21.8 18.796 123.9 95.119.443 .442 .120.719.753 104.920.9 42.9 41.435 .3 11.0 97.6 7.6 78.6 77.4 23.327 .54.3 9.7 21.56.48 5.210 Chicago 89.8 10.34.6 22.34 14.34 14.00 13.8 20.1 30.6 30.9 21.364 .7 35.84 5.358 .22 14.3 11.2 19.5 27.1 7.615.9 8.94.750 103.4 20.7 89.3 .1 37.0 20.1 13.0 43.94 4.8 20.765 107.39 3.459 .4 35.77 Milwaukee 98.753 107.446 .9 81.5 20.2 .3 30.A.9 77.9 25.6 78.6 41.340 .8 76.92 15.4 13.016.5 21.42 4.
N : Not enough to qualify for rankings.762 98.2 .726 Houston 89. Baseball This is an example of stats in baseball that will provide you with the data about the teams and players that compete in the league. Min : Minutes.8 97. Ftm-a : Free throws made .7 41.Free throws made) + Turnovers)).218.3 .329 Washington 91.83 5.421 . Oreb : Offensive Rebounds. Res : Result.Free throws attempts.5 19.7 12.4 33.0 42.828 Miami 90. Pts : Points.425 .1 77.366 .9 29. which will decide mostly what the outcome of the game will be.((Field goals attempts .615.418 . if two teams are not balanced it doesn’t mean that the better skilled team will win all the time.3 point attempts.7 22.3 29.7 20. Margin : efficiency recap margin When you analyze the teams from the NBA or any other basketball league. .5 27.3 16.6 19.1 7.72 13. 3pm-a : 3 point made . There is no such a thing as a sure thing in betting and you should expect anything to happen.3 6.319.5 39. Pct : Percentage.1 . eff : efficiency recap = ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) .76 13.3 10.0 101.3 89.5 23.81. Ast : Assists.5 10. Again. Stl : Steals. Blk : Blocks.1 21.025 Orlando 94.8 18.344 . Fgm-a : Field goals made .6 32.750 93.67 3.1 30.6 . Pf : Fouls.8 21.45.0 11.5 17.5 32.2 82. L : Loss. Dreb : Defensive Rebounds. There are also psychological factors here.4 88.429 .2 24.5 .Field goals made) + (Free throws attempts .65.0 Glossary G : Games.316.1 78.0 75.127 Toronto 85.3 6. W : Win. W-Diff : Win Difference.4 14. The indicators show a certain aspect of the game and the overall performance is based on the quality of these indicators that cover every aspect of the game.2 13.8 88.341 .3 21.9 15. that’s the kind of chart you will use.96 16.737 98.357 . L-Diff : Loss Difference.917.356 . Reb : Rebounds.773 101.37 4. To : Turnovers.6 19.0 21.714 96.3 28.35. Gs : Games Started.2 7.442 .90 13.4 15.5 79.7 35.4 42.9 19.93 4.45.Field goals attempts.1 33.46.5 15.8 20.1 40.20 3.40 15.1 22.4 33. From this set of indicators you should have an overall view over the quality of the teams in the two major departments: offense and defense.7 8.
AL 36 11.271 Seattle Mariners 162 5561 795 1509 290 . 63 NL 37 12. NL 150 74 14. 65 AL 25 15.Team SO SB 1.268 Baltimore Orioles 163 5665 743 1516 277 .265 San Francisco Giants 161 5456 755 1440 281 .330 .454 .267 Florida Marlins 162 5490 751 1459 292 .338 . AL 120 42 7.349 .427 .410 . Louis Cardinals 162 5672 876 1580 342 .264 3B HR RBI TB BB 40 238 932 2832 620 943 88 31 235 872 2696 545 933 68 32 196 827 2574 580 952 82 33 190 853 2573 546 1081 45 155 755 2440 512 1027 39 162 781 2378 476 926 14 230 845 2540 684 1042 33 139 759 2282 586 989 33 150 687 2265 476 838 24 152 695 2297 431 902 89 31 198 814 2458 619 1134 45 163 711 2346 529 1049 44 157 709 2310 515 978 36 239 799 2569 488 1052 38 137 678 2286 420 1030 29 180 713 2319 593 980 53 . AL 129 61 10.455 .279 Toronto Blue Jays 162 5661 894 1580 357 .360 .336 . AL 142 42 16. NL 37 LEAGUE G AB R H 2B CS OBP SLG AVG Boston Red Sox 162 5769 961 1667 371 .330 .344 . 98 AL 33 8.405 .413 . 94 AL 44 6. 86 NL 37 13.338 .431 .274 New York Yankees 163 5605 877 1518 304 .420 .341 .349 .333 .445 .454 .344 .266 Texas Rangers 162 5664 826 1506 274 . NL 22 3.404 .475 .271 Anaheim Angels 162 5487 736 1473 276 .266 Tampa Bay Devil Rays 162 5654 715 1501 298 .350 .323 .421 .356 .491 .277 Kansas City Royals 162 5568 836 1526 288 . AL 35 2. NL 32 4.284 St.268 Colorado Rockies 162 5518 853 1472 330 .320 .267 Pittsburgh Pirates 162 5581 753 1492 275 . AL 108 37 9.289 Atlanta Braves 162 5670 907 1608 321 .425 .279 Minnesota Twins 162 5655 801 1567 318 .453 . 37 AL 25 5.
419 .368 .336 .261 Chicago Cubs 162 5519 724 1431 . AL 14 27.401 .263 Houston Astros 162 5583 805 1466 . 98 AL 63 Arizona Diamondbacks 162 5570 717 1467 .417 . 72 NL 29 21.243 Detroit Tigers 162 5466 591 1312 . NL 100 39 24.326 .240 303 47 152 696 2320 531 1006 308 30 191 763 2407 557 1021 303 19 220 766 2446 519 916 77 325 27 166 757 2325 651 1155 257 32 128 641 2147 565 1073 302 24 172 691 2297 492 1158 294 25 144 682 2180 522 990 266 24 196 685 2325 547 1221 296 26 158 660 2235 466 1062 317 24 176 742 2291 556 898 48 262 24 124 607 1999 489 1035 239 21 182 669 2176 524 1326 260 25 124 544 2010 407 985 80 201 39 153 553 2050 443 1099 Hitting Stats .327 .416 . 86 AL 61 26.417 . 76 NL 39 22.247 Cincinnati Reds 162 5509 694 1349 .419 .331 .374 . 99 NL 39 25.254 New York Mets 161 5341 642 1317 .256 Cleveland Indians 162 5572 699 1413 .375 .329 .316 . NL 36 30.343 .395 .318 .388 .254 Oakland Athletics 162 5497 768 1398 . 70 NL 31 28. 76 NL 38 18.333 .323 .330 .303 .401 .431 .300 .17.261 San Diego Padres 162 5531 678 1442 .258 Milwaukee Brewers 162 5548 714 1423 . 80 NL 34 29.446 . 66 NL 30 19.245 Los Angeles Dodgers 162 5458 574 1328 .263 Philadelphia Phillies 162 5543 791 1448 . 73 NL 31 23. AL 29 20.263 Chicago White Sox 162 5487 791 1445 .259 Montreal Expos 162 5437 711 1404 .314 .
we will talk about this when the time for this is near.On-base Plus Slugging Percentage PA/SO .Sacrifice Bunts SB% .At-Bats per Runs Batted In AO . Also.Hit by Pitch HR .At-Bats per Grounded Into Double Play AB/HR . This material is not about statistics.Triples AB .Ground into Double Plays GO . As for every other sport. the stats for baseball are in two departments: offense-hitting and defense-pitching and fielding. notice that the analysis itself doesn’t provide the edge you need to win in betting. Then.Intentional Walks LIPS .Strikeouts TB .Home Runs IBB .Fly Outs AVG .Extra Base Hits This is the stats only for hitting and they were displayed only for illustration purposes.Slugging Percentage SO .Hits HBP .Ground Outs GO/AO .Caught Stealing G .Bases on Balls (Walks) CS .Triple Play TPA .Stolen Bases SF .Number of Pitches OBP . it is about winning in sports betting with a system.Sacrifice Flies SLG .Batting Average BB .At-Bats per Home Run AB/RBI . Hockey .2B . keep these indicators in balance and give each one the necessary balance.Runs Batted In SAC .At Bats AB/GIDP .Plate Appearances per Strikeout R .Stolen Base Percentage SB .Runs Scored RBI .Grand Slam Home Runs H . So.Doubles 3B .Late Inning Pressure Situations LOB . pitchers.Total Bases TP . and fielders.Ground Outs/Fly Outs GSH . but only for the teams. there are the players in separate statistics: hitters. But.Total Plate Appearances XBH .On-base Percentage OPS . Along with this statistics. there are also those for pitching and for fielding.Games Played GIDP .Left On Base NP . Let’s go to the last sport we will cover here.
351 .3 25.421 3.1 83.5 .567 .468 .9 27 CLB 82 25 45 8 4 62 .842 .607 .176 .616 2.5 27.616 2.917 .8 28 WAS 82 23 46 10 3 59 .4 26.526 .70 13.2 82.00 2.415 50.4 .444 .1 32.222 .867 .555 2.424 48.2 9 NJD 82 43 25 12 2 100 .1 21 ATL 82 33 37 8 4 78 .317 .4 5 TOR 82 45 24 10 3 103 .744 .560 .6 81.4 30 PIT 82 23 47 8 4 58 .805 .70 2.257 .720 .23 2.222 .588 47.6 29.952 .317 51.643 .6 .346 .7 29.341 .600 52.2 24.707 .333 .5 23.665 2.333 .450 .7 .30 3.7 .098 .2 .870 .05 2.87 14.6 27.277 .10 10.481 .30 3.37 2.667 .29 16.314 .0 83.6 27.341 .889 .0 26.343 .27 19.105 .226 .440 50.794 .3 24.4 28.793 .34 2.771 .787 .5 27.4 30.500 .7 20 LOS 82 28 29 16 9 81 .556 48.29 13.857 .500 .54 17.9 26.818 .5 27.29 15.609 .727 .42 2.7 22 CAR 82 28 34 14 6 76 .16 2.500 .529 .245 .317 .65 2.5 28.7 26.355 .564 51.3 .421 47.708 .690 .196 .4 30.800 .205 .8 17 EDM 82 36 29 12 5 89 .7 28.0 .5 25.2 33.Shots Against per Game S/g-Shots per Game SC 1st%.1 81. You will see below an example of team statistics for the NHL.351 . SC TR OS W LD LD OS RK TEAM GP W L T OTL PTS GA/g G/g PP% PK% SA/g S/g 1st 1st FOW% BY % 1%2% % % % % 1 DET 82 48 21 11 2 109 .60 2.256 .7 28.23 2.50 14.8 25.654 .361 55.3 29.767 .4 26 PHO 82 22 36 18 6 68 .130 .9 85.0 77.08 2.1 4 SAN 82 43 21 12 6 104 .55 16.591 2.2 29.300 46.4 29.3 83.313 54.1 25 NYR 82 27 40 7 8 69 .821 .5 27.0 27.732 .37 15.4 29.5 28.360 3.11 20.667 .0 81.573 2.818 .8 84.457 2.8 84.Winning$ Scoring First TR 1st%-Winning% Trailing First LD1 %-Winning after Leading Period 1 LD 2%-Winning % after Leading Period 2 OS BY %-Winning% Outshoot OS%-Winning% Outshooting FOW%-Face Off Win% .4 28.44 15.90 2.1 6 OTT 82 43 23 10 6 102 .594 .405 .463 2.2 26.511 50.610 2.1 84.619 .67 16.0 29 CHI 82 20 43 11 8 59 .667 .7 .3 15 STL 82 39 30 11 2 91 .821 .286 .3 8 VAN 82 43 24 10 5 101 .8 .For hockey there are the team statistics and the player statistics.872 .523 .8 23.4 26.471 .472 .737 .7 13 MON 82 41 30 7 4 93 .2 29.0 3 BOS 82 41 19 15 7 104 .49 2.4 .33 17.516 .818 .2 .63 16.680 .792 .6 26.677 .692 .316 .34 2.42 2.4 .868 .533 .291 .3 34.8 29.4 29.2 30.667 .60 16.54 2.5 .758 .9 28.55 2.0 28.555 2.786 .842 .261 48.476 2.340 .70 2.13 2.6 27.7 83.523 51.6 85.622 2.3 24 FLO 82 28 35 15 4 75 .235 .842 .96 2.545 .395 51.778 .750 .1 29.242 .61 14.463 2.405 .407 .268 .737 .541 .8 30.89 16.774 .354 3.588 .518 2.4 .2 79.523 50.500 .70 2.29 2.0 .212 .839 .774 .171 49.308 .2 28.8 85.250 .556 .480 47.29 14.646 2.2 82.15 2.5 .9 29.7 .500 .5 .7 86.692 .2 .0 86.500 .581 .2 84.551 52.7 29.375 .7 85.610 2.913 .652 .1 .24 18.793 .841 .478 .6 14 NYI 82 38 29 11 4 91 .4 27.167 .2 19 MIN 82 30 29 20 3 83 .88 20.458 46.506 2.590 52.555 2.9 16 NAS 82 38 29 11 4 91 .130 .360 3.632 .270 .378 2.7 83.6 85.0 .634 2.353 .636 .9 18 BUF 82 37 34 7 4 85 .6 26.4 12 CAL 82 42 30 7 3 94 .528 .95 20.9 23 ANA 82 29 35 10 8 76 .27 2.1 24.429 .500 46.350 .438 .5 24.657 .2 The legend: RK-rank GP-Games Played W-Wins L-Losses T-Ties OTL-Over Time Losses PTS-Points W%-Win % GA/g-Goals Against per Game G/g Goals per Game PP%-Power Play% PK%Penalty Killing% SA/g.68 15.694 .250 49.7 .5 2 TAM 82 46 22 8 6 106 .636 .6 84.1 .3 31.65 2.7 28.342 .634 2.16 14.3 85.882 .385 .5 .577 51.7 .0 11 DAL 82 41 26 13 2 97 .0 7 PHI 82 40 21 15 6 101 .2 10 COL 82 40 22 13 7 100 .6 25.450 .646 .677 .56 2.625 .5 .32 18.741 .519 50.564 50.760 .0 80.4 85.0 84.5 29.524 49.99 2.1 .3 .596 .99 16.51 14.494 2.543 2.415 2.528 49.20 21.610 .340 .184 .8 .559 49.325 .700 .5 27.628 2.5 83.9 81.79 20.567 2.1 30.
RateForm : A rating calculation based on the information you consider important for the team’s form . After you have a static analysis of the team. Away Team : Name of away team. you should extract from these indicators what is important and that is the overall performance of a team and this information you will complete it with the other information in the analysis section. MATCH ANALYSIS This section analyzes the conditions in which the game takes place. you go on and analyze the value of the odds offered by the sports books. In conclusion. Player History If applicable could player history impact the result. suited with the game that you analyze. having in mind the context and the trends of the involved teams. The goalkeeper plays a very important role in the hockey game and his stats are highlighted separately. • • • • Date : Match date. you go and analyze the match and then the characteristics of the league. The Data The match data is presented in table format which includes 12 columns. We will get to them in the next paragraphs. In addition. Balanced Teams Too close to call? To gather the important data you will need to use for your bets you can use forms as the ones shown below. It highlights a range of variables that have an influence on the outcome of the game. several other factors as listed below have a strong bearing on the result regardless of logic. Derby Is the match a local derby. Previous History Is there a strong history of results between the teams irrespective of form and league position. There are different odds offered by different sports books and your job is to find out which odds are best. Match Analysis involves primarily weighing up the analysis of the home team against the analysis of the away team. Home Team : Name of home team.3. After you have all this information. 2. The columns contain the following information.In hockey there is one important indicator that is not found in other sports: Goalie Stats.
Probability win/loss : % Calculation for the match outcome based on a multitude of Stats and Ratings including RateForm. Probability home/Away win : A % Probability calculation based on information you gather from different sources o % Home Win o % Away Win History : History results of up to the previous 10 matches between the teams in the last 10 years. Recent Encounters etc. These most important indicators are: season and the strength of the opposition but also includes • • • • Recent Form : Takes into account the last six matches only. Golden Rule : Bet with your head not your heart.. Home Win Fixed Odds get info from a sportsbook Away Win Fixed Odds get info from a sportsbook Result : Match result where appropriate. Handy method of discovering top versus bottom or bottom versus top matches. Thus you can tell at a glance all matches that look positive for home wins or away wins. This may be an overall indicator of all Ratings and Stats. Leagueform : A rating calculation based on the teams league matches. Historical Data The beauty of the historical data is that you can proof check your own theories/formulae against it. Recent Form. Combo : A rating calculation based on the teams recent form and league form. no gain as some would say!! The 6 League tables include : • • • • • • Full View (Home and Away matches combined in W L format) Last 6 Matches Table Last 4 Homes Table Last 4 Aways Table Home Match Table Away Match Table Match Odds You should also take into account the match odds for several sportsbooks.• • • • • • • • RecentForm : A rating calculation based on the teams last 6 league matches. Takes into account results form the start of the season so you can see the most important information in an aggregate format. No pain. Positive values across all rating are a good indicator. The greater the value indicates the greater in superiority of the home team's league record against the away team's league record. League Form : Takes into account all matches played since the start of the season. . Combo Form : Combination of Recent Form and League Form thus providing a more robust form indicator.
Only use statistics when you are in slight doubt about the object and as a supplement to objects you've singled out through criterias mentioned further down on this page. If several key members of the team get unexpectedly injured. what's good odds. Relevant criterias: o Injuries It's very wise to have a check on the participating teams' injury situation before placing a bet. statistics. Very often. just notice the events you feel "must" have a certain outcome. Get a view of the assortment from several bookies. Sometimes the decision is based on a mix of genuine belief. But if you have singled out an object. and visit the sportsbook sites. Also pay attention to reports of viruses. It's time to pick games. etc. If you can't decide upon whether to bet or not to bet on an event. don't change your plan only because an unexpected injury occurs.After having opened accounts with several sportsbooks. etc. Often you don't need to run a thorough analysis on a match in order to decide whether to bet on it or not. and after analysing your risk. because bettors can stay updated on injuries to the last minutes before kickoff. Bettors have here a rare advantage on the bookie. The bookie presents his odds long before the match kicks off. It should only be used as additional info to a genuine belief. dependant on their key personell).and 10-year statistics. Genuine conviction: The most common way of betting is to pick an object based on genuine belief of a certain outcome. First pick the object based on belief. By following these simple steps. This is how the average bettor operate. Statistical analysis: Let it be said: Use of statistical analysis should not be the only criteria when choosing betting objects. etc. you don't know as much about the participating teams as you should in order to make a sound bet. it's time to consider what's good bets. the form. get a market view. Do not pay too much attention to the odds offered in this phase. and good price offered. gather info about teams and events. it's time to get down to business. Make use of resources from websites who compares odds presented by most sportsbooks. the average bettor have decided his bet long before he's even seen the price offered. With statistics I mean league tables. 5. Find out who's offering what. By "genuine belief" I mean the hunch. then check the prices offered. then you should consider your pick (especially if it's a team with a rather thin squad. you should be well on your way: • Get an overview. and bookies are not nescessarily updated on the injury situation. If you have to analyse every match you want to bet on. perhaps it isn't a good object after all.and bettingprofile. Use the internet. form tables. or the feeling you've got before you've checked the table. you'll automaticly know when a good object comes your way. squads suffering • • • • . I mention this because if you are updated on the event. Study offers: It's important to superficially scan the assortment before you start examining the assortment more carefully. getting to know their rules and procedures.
from the flu, etc. Very often during the winter squads are depleted due to flu or viruses.
Type of match The outcome of a match is often dependant on what kind of match it is. You should consider whether the game is in the regular season or in the playoffs and what is the situation fo the teams if there is a regular season match.
2.4. LEAGUE ANALYSIS
What league ? You should consider the characteristics of the competition, the homeaway win ratio in the leagu, what changes occur over time in the balance of forces between home and away teams.
During the season run-in, mid-table teams, with little to play for, often beat top teams with medals in sight, or desperate teams looking to survive. Nothing to play for means no pressure and often these teams play very well. Ofcourse, the opposite also happens. This has all to do with psycology and be aware of these kind of games. Even already relegated teams can play better after their fate have been decided. The pressure's off, and suddenly they start to play well again. Stay away from these kind of games, they are usually difficult to predict. Local derbies are always special. Pay attention to these games.
Time of year During the first quarter of the season, results can be very unpredictable, and often less fancied teams bet the more well known teams. This is the time to bet on highly priced underdogs. After the first quarter the leagues have usually settled, and things are back to normal. Results seem to be "normal", and the assumed top teams win their matches with ease. This is the time when the promoted teams start to feel the pace, and loosing their grips after a good start to the campaign. During the run-in (last quarter), results may not be so easy to predict. Low table teams often beat the top teams, and form doesn't count for so much anymore. The bottom teams are desperate, and this makes this part of the season difficult for bettors. It might pay off to have small
bets on the underdogs, instead of heavy money on the favorites.
League tables League tables should not be used as a pick criteria at all during the first months of the season, as they count for nothing in this period. Wait for the season to settle, and only start to use the tables after about a quarter of the season. League tables should never be used as the only criteria when picking a betting object. Remember that bookies use league tables, form tables and 5- or 10-year statistics when they decide what odds to offer.
Form Form is the major criteria used by bookies to decide prices. Therefore, formteams are almost always recognised by bookies, and the prices reflect this. A team who have won it's last 4 matches are rarely given good odds by the bookie. You have to identify a team in form as early as possible, in order to get good prices before the bookie discover it. Often you can assume a change in form, not nescessarly based on results, but on reports on how the team has played, even though results haven't been that good. During a season teams hit periods with extreme luck, and periodes with really bad luck. Teams can play very badly for a period, then a change of management turn things upside down, and the team hit a winning streak.. It's vital to your success to identify these periods early on, before bookies get aware.
Recent history Some bettors do not take 5- or 10-year statistics into consideration at all when picking objects. Succesful bettors do not use these statistics as a vital criteria, but if other criterias like form and league table indicate a good object and the 5-year statistics shows the opposite, the object is often dropped. 5-year statistics can indicate a teams psycological superiority, but do not pay too much attention to this criteria unless form and league table indicate a good object. Ofcourse, this could be superstitions, but when things happen over and over again, it would be stupid not to take it into consideration when the situation occurs. Differences in style of play is probably the reason for the "bogey team" theory, but it could also be just a psycological thing.
Special circumstances Sometimes during the regular season one team has the place assured and the result of the match doesn’t count that much. The sportsbooks are very alert to these kind of situations and they rarely offer a good price on the object.
2.5. ODDS ANALYSIS
After this stage, you have to analyze the odds offered by different sportsbooks. You do this to find that sports book that offers odds that are not reflecting the reality of the game. The sports books have different criteria to get an odd for a game and there are differences between bookies. You will choose the one that is in your best interest. There are lots of programs available which can help you sort all the information you gather. But be ware of computer programs which are supposed to calculate the teams form. Many of these programs seem to put too much weight on a big victory, producing a "false" form rating. If a team wins in a game, and they've lost their 3 previous games, it's too early to conclude with a turn of form. Only when teams have been performing well in several games, we can say that a team is "in form". It's often more important to check your objects 5 latest games. First check the results, then check the opposition. Was the previous games against tough opposition ? Had the opposition been playing well for some time at the time? Was it a marginal victory with slices of luck in it? Harsh referreing decisions ? Did your team play well in previous games, but did not have the little luck needed to beat assumed better teams ? Listen to match reports, they often produce useful information for bettors. It's important not to look at the results only, but identify the happenings behind the result. This is the info that bettors use to identify value bets, and teams on the way up or down. Find the trends, and use them well. Teams are often on several bad runs and good runs during a season. Teams rarely lose and win every other game. No, teams often lose several in a row, and then win seferal in a row. We must identify these periods before the sportsbooks do. Note that the sportsbooks are using the form factor quite heavily when determining their odds. League tables and form is the major criterias used by the bookies. For bettors, it is important to identify tems "on the way up" earlier than the bookies, thus we get better odds. In order to beat the bookie we need to know something the bookie does not know. We must gather info from several sources. TV, newspapers, internet ezines, etc. Value Betting Odds calculation
To understand value betting, you got to understand first how the odds are calculated and to take advantage of this situation. The sportsbook takes into account several variables when calculating odds like: last matches, team form, previous matches between the 2 teams, injuries, weather and so on. Then the bookie puts all this together and comes up with a percentage. For example, let’s say that the match is between Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers and the match is played at Green Bay. After the calculation it comes up Miami X% and Green Bay Y% where X+Y=100. There is no other result so the 100% is split between the two teams. Then the sportsbook makes the odds. The odds are built in such a manner that with this percentages that prove reliable over time the sportsbook makes money no matter what the result in the field is. The bookie comes up with the money line that will have these characteristics. The money line will look something like this: Minnesota +160 Green Bay -180 which means that if you bet 100 on Minnesota , you will win 160 and if you bet 180 on Green Bay , you will win 100. If we calculate the percentages that the bookie had, it will come up a sum that is greater than 100 and the difference is the juice, the sportsbook’s win. Let’s say that after we calculate the percentages based on the odds, we come up with 107%. The juice here is 7%. For the example above tha calculation is done as follows: for 180 bet on Green Bay the gain is 100, so for 100 bet on Green Bay the win is 100X100/180=55,55. For every 100 bet on Green Bay we end up with 155,55 in total if Green Bay wins and for every 100 bet on Minneota we end up with 260 if Minnesota wins. Now the percentage assumed by the sportsbook is 100/155,55=0.6428 for Green Bay and 100/260=0.3846. if we add the two the result is 1.0274 and in percentage 102.74%. the juice is 102.74-100=2.74% in this case or 0.0274. This means that if the percentages assumed by the sportsbook are correct, the win will be 2.74% no matter what the result is. When you do Value Betting you thoroughly study the odds from the sportsbooks. Then you consider the home- away percentage distribution for the games. This shall in the long run give a profit. What you with value betting is that you calculate the percentages based on the odds offered by the sportsbook and you calcualte the percentages based on your information or intuition. If your Estimate % is greater than the Odds% then you have a value bet. Estimate%-Odds%>0 To understand Value Betting better we will look at some examples. Odds are set by sportsbook, estimate is your percentage for a home win or an away win. The point here is to always make the sum be a number higher than 0. This makes it a Value Bet. To successfully make money on Value Betting you must be patient, avoid quitting although losing the first number of bets. This will eventually give a profit. Value Betting with Small Odds (Betting on favorites) Often there are games with big favorites. The odds put in the favor of the favorites is too small after your calculations and you come up with a greater percentage, then you choose to back the big favorite.
Value Betting with High Odds (Betting on non-favorites)
if the odds are high and you stick to this strategy for a longer period of time (maybe the whole season) there are bound to be a couple of unexpected favorite defeats. With OddsExchange you can: -compare odds from largest sportsbooks -find highest odds from each sportsbook -get profit with sure bets -view best value bets -subscribe to sure bets. These 'strange' results give a high profit. but it will give you a great advantage on the long term. Use them to find value bets and place those bets. you have to patiently bet on the non-favorites. OddsExchange. Since you never know when these 'strange' results occur. Then you can choose to place the bet on the non-favorite. The key is to wait for those special games that offer a high formula value. which will outweigh your losses in the long run. The goal of value betiing is to find those games that are undervaluated by the sportsbooks and to take advantage of this situation on the long term. One such website is www. IWAs scan web for changes at regular intervals. Problems with Value Betting The main problem is the accuracy of the percentage distribution. .com. Obviously. value bets and highest odds from each sportsbook. However.oddsexchange. OddsExchange. It is one of the key edges of the bettors.Sometimes the sportsbook gives too small chances to non-favorites and you know that in this particular game the non-favorite has a biiger chance than what the bookie assigned. OddsExchange.com uses the unparalleled technologies developed by BetResearch Ltd. There are several websites that offer odds comparison. This is no sure way to win. the percentages must not be changed in any way to bring the formula answer above 0. What's why the information presented by OddsExchange. After you set the odds it is time to choose the bet types. Odds are taken from the largest online sportsbooks with the help of Intelligent Web Agents (IWAs).com is an online service for professional players and gamblers.com provide services for the odds comparison.com is always up to date and actual. Consequently the service allows customers to compare sportsbook's odds with the highest level of comfort. It's a service that provides people with a real time information even on little changes which occur in the world of bets.
It is customary that when making a bet that you put up the juice as part of your wager. For baseball. If the number is negative (-) then subtract those points from your teams score.BETTING 3. $110 will be wagered if you specify a $100 straight bet. If the number is positive (+) then you add the points to your team's score. to win $100 San Francisco 49ers -2½ Risking $110. The side with the higher score after the points are applied is the winner. For baseball. Example Teams Line Price Total Price -110 -110 35 44 -110 -110 Washington Redskins -7 San Francisco 49ers -2½ Bet examples: Washington Redskins -7 Risking $110. For example. you bet on which team will win the game outright.3.1. . For example. BET TYPES Straight/Side bets (All Sports) A straight/side bet is one of the most common forms of sports betting where you pick which team will win the game. the payoff is determined by the money line. to win $100 Teams Line Price Total Price -110 -110 202 185 -110 -110 Los Angeles Lakers -17 New Jersey Nets +2½ Bet examples: LA Lakers -17 Risking $110. to win $100. if the money line is +125 then you would wager $100 to win $125. If the money line is a positive number then you will wager $100 to win the money line. If the money line is a negative number then you wager the amount of the money line for each $1 of your bet. For football and basketball the payoff is $100 for every $110 wagered unless otherwise noted. For basketball or football there will generally be a pointspread as part of the bet. if the money line is -135 then you would wager $135 to win your $100 bet. Therefore.
Basketball. Baseball and Hockey. If a 2 team parlay has a tie and a winner then the parlay pays 90% of the straight bet payoff except. Parlays (Football. line moves are done by applying a money line to the total. For baseball totals the total points seldom moves. Parlay payoffs depend on how many teams are in your wager. However. For football and basketball the payoff for a winner is $100 for every $110 wagered unless otherwise noted. when the winner is a baseball bet the payoff is 100% of the straight bet payoff. to win $100. It is customary that when making a bet that you put up the juice as part of your wager. of Teams Odds Payouts 2 Teams 3 Teams 13/5 6/1 $100 to win $260 $100 to win $600 . Example You can bet parlays in Football. Example Teams Line Price Total Price -110 +6 47 -110 -110 38 -110 St Louis Rams-11 Arizona Cardinals Bet example St Louis Rams over 47 risking $110 to win $100. Payoffs for football and basketball are shown in the table below.New Jersey Nets +2½ Risking $110. Basketball. If there is a tie in one or more of your individual parts then the wager steps down to the next lower number of teams. Totals (All Sports) When you bet on totals you are betting on whether the total points scored in the game will be higher or lower than the posted total. $110 will be wagered if you specify a $100 total bet. to win $100. Parlays No. For the parlay to win all of the individual parts of the parlay need to win for the parlay to be a winner. You can mix different sports on the same parlay. Arizona Cardinals under 38 Risking $110. Therefore. Instead. Hockey. You can combine multiple sports to make up your 2-8 teams. and Baseball) A parlay is a group of straight bets or totals combined into one bet. your payoff will depend on the money line at the time of the wager. Therefore.
Teasers (Football and Basketball) A teaser is a group of straight bets or totals combined into one bet. Teasers are not available for baseball and you are able to mix Teasers for football and basketball. 2 team 6½ Pt. As with a parlay. 49ers over 35 . to win $600. The difference between a parlay and a teaser is that with a teaser the line you bet against for each individual wager is moved to your favor by the number of points of the teaser. If there is a tie in one or more of your individual parts then the wager steps down to the next lower number of teams. Example Ties lose on all Teasers except the 2-Teasers where a tie is a push.000 Price -110 35 -110 -110 San Francisco 49ers -2½ San Francisco 49ers over Houston Texans -3½ Customer Bet example 3 team parlay S. If a 2 team teaser has a tie and a loser. If the regular line is -6 and you have a 4 point teaser then your line would be -2. all of the individual parts need to win for the teaser to be a winner. the teaser loses. The cost is an extra . Payoffs for football and basketball are shown in the table below. Teaser is 12/10 and a 7 Pt. Football Teaser is 13/10 .S. Teaser payoffs depend on how many teams are in your wager. 49ers -2½ .Houston -3½ Risking $100.4 Teams 5 Teams 6 Teams 7 Teams 8 Teams Example Teams Line 10/1 20/1 40/1 75/1 $100 to win $1000 $100 to win $2000 $100 to win $4000 $100 to win $7500 150/1 $100 to win $15. EX.F. You can buy up to 1 full point on 2 Team Football Teasers.F.10 cents per half point. If a 2 team teaser has a tie and a winner then the teaser pushes " No Action".
San Francisco -1 Risking $110. . to win $100.# Of Teams 6 Point 6 1/2 Point 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Team 6 Team 7 Team 8 Team 100/100 100/170 100/280 100/425 100/600 100/800 100/900 7 Point 120/100 100/150 100/200 100/350 100/500 100/600 100/700 110/100 100/160 100/250 100/400 100/550 100/700 100/800 10 Point Football Super Teaser No. of Teams Odds Payouts for a $100 bet 3 Teams 11/10 $110 to win $100 Example Teams Line Price Total Price -110 -110 41 -110 35 38 -110 51 -110 -110 -110 Washington Redskins +7½ San Francisco 49ers -7 USC Trojans -9 Arizona Wildcats -110 +2 Bet example: 2-Team 6 point Football Teaser Original lines Washington +7½ & San Francisco -7 Teased Lines Washington +13½ .
Bet example: 3-Team 10 point Football Super Teaser Original lines USC Trojans -9 .41/2 points . USC Trojans Under 51 Risking $120. of Teams Odds Payouts for a $100 bet 3 Teams 12/10 $120 to win $100 . to win $100. Arizona Wildcats +2 . USC Trojans Under 41 Teased Lines USC Trojans +1.Bet example: 2-Team 7 point Football Teaser Original lines USC Trojans -9 & Arizona Wildcats +2 Teased Lines USC Trojans -9 & Arizona Wildcats +9 Risking $130. Basketball Teasers betting: 4 points . to win $100.5 points Teaser bet payoffs are the following # Of Teams 4 Point 4 1/2 Point 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Team 6 Team 7 Team 8 Team 100/100 100/170 100/280 100/425 100/600 100/800 100/900 5 Point 120/100 100/150 100/200 100/350 100/500 100/600 100/700 110/100 100/160 100/250 100/400 100/550 100/700 100/800 7 Point Basketball Super Teaser No. Arizona Wildcats +12 .
North Carolina Tar Heels +7 Risking $130.10 cents per half point. The cost is an extra .UCLA Bruins over 141 . 2 team 4½ Pt.Los Angeles Lakers -7 Teased Lines Washington Wizards +11½ .Los Angeles Lakers -3 Risking $110. Bet example: 2-Team 5 point Basketball Teaser Original lines UCLA Bruins -9 . EX. to win $100.North Carolina Tar Heels +2 Teased Lines UCLA Bruins -4 .Example Ties lose on all Teasers except the 2-Teasers where a tie is a push. Teaser is 12/10 and a 5 Pt. Basketball Teaser is 13/10 Teams Line Price Total Price -110 -110 141 +2 185 202 -110 -110 151 -110 -110 -110 Washington Wizards +7½ Los Angeles Lakers -7 UCLA Bruins -9 -110 North Carolina Tar Heels Bet example: 2-Team 4 point Basketball Teaser Original lines Washington Wizards +7½ . Bet example: 3-Team 7 point Basketball Super Teaser Original lines Original lines Washington Wizards +7½ . You can buy up to 1 full point on 2 Team Basketball Teasers.Los Angeles Lakers -7 . to win $100.
Arizona Wildcats -4 Risking $100.Teased Lines Washington Wizards +14½ . Pleasers will not be taken on NFL totals. to win $100. of Teams Odds Payouts for a $100 bet 2 Teams 3 Teams 4 Teams 5 Teams 6 Teams Example Teams Line Price Total Price -110 -110 141 -110 185 202 -110 151 -110 -110 -110 6/1 17/1 45/1 120/1 300/1 $100 to win $600 $100 to win $1700 $100 to win $4500 $100 to win $12000 $100 to win $30000 San Diego Chargers +7½ Oakland Raiders USC Trojans -9 Arizona Wildcats -7 -110 +2 Bet example: 3-Team 6 point Football Pleaser Original lines San Diego Chargers +7½. to win $1700. or NCAA football at the current time. Oakland Raiders -13. Arizona Wildcats +2 Pleased Lines San Diego Chargers +1½. Oakland Raiders -7. If the regular line is –10 and you play a pleaser then your line would be –16. Pleasers (Football) A pleaser is a group of NFL side straight bets combined into one bet. Pleasers are currently only available on NFL regular season side plays. NFL preseason. Example 6 Point Football Pleasers No.Los Angeles Lakers -PK -UCLA Bruins over 134 Risking $120. The difference between a pleaser and a teaser is that with a pleaser the line you bet against for each individual wager is moved against your favor by 6 points. .
unless money lines are involved. of Teams Odds Payouts 2 Teams Example Teams Line Price Total Price -110 -7 -110 185 -110 45 -110 41 -110 -110 2. Baseball . .Round Robins (Football. to win $260.USC Trojans -9 Risking $100. Example Round Robin. Oakland Raiders -7. for example. the same rules apply as in a regular parlay. whatever the player risks on the Round Robin must be applied to each of the 2 team parlay combinations. to win $260. Basketball and Hockey) A Round Robin Parlay is a wager in which three to 18 teams or totals are combined into a single play and all possible combinations of two or three team parlays are exhausted. *If one of the teams loses. if the Round Robin were in 2 team parlay combinations: *The payoff on each 2 team parlay is 5/13. Also. ( A combination of 3-5 different 2-Team Parlays) No. to win $260. then all combinations with that team would turn into straight bets.6/1 $100 to win $260 LA Clippers +7 Oakland Raiders USC Trojans -9 Bet example: 3-Team Round Robin distributed in $100 2-Team Parlays LA Clippers +7. They are used in all sports except in circled games and there is no buying points allowed. Because they are turned into 2 or 3 team parlays. You can bet multiple sports in your combinations. all parlay combinations with that team are a loss *If one team pushes. USC Trojans -9 Risking $100. LA Clippers +7. Total at Risk $300 to win $780.Oakland Raiders-7 Risking $100.
Baseball & Hockey). when you have money lines you have to be careful and see if the customer is taking only dogs. if the customer’s first play is a win or a push. and Hockey) An If Bet consists of two straight bets joined together by an IF CLAUSE. and there is no buying points allowed.If Bets (Football. only favorites or a combinations of both. except circled games. If Bets can be used for all of the four major sports (Football. Basketball. ties or cancels). That is. so if he places an If Bet he will not have any kind of problem whatsoever. The advantage of placing an If Bet is that the customer can make sure to get action on all of the games that he is interested in. Sometimes he will have a pending wager that hasn’t been reconciled and there can be a game going of the board. however. Baseball. he cannot change each subsequent one to a higher amount. then we process his second wager. In If Bets the player gets Double Action (wager goes on only if the first one wins. If Bets Combinations Odds for a $100 Bet If win or Tie $110 to win $100 If Win only $110 to win $100 If Lose or Tie $110 to win $100 If Lose only Example Teams Line Price Total Price -110 -110 41 -110 35 44 -110 51 -110 -110 -110 $110 to win $100 San Diego Chargers +7½ Oakland Raiders USC Trojans -9 Arizona Wildcats -7 -110 +2 . You can use multiple sports in your combinations. Example If bets are combinations of 2 Straight Bets/Sidebets. Each of the bets in the If Bet must be for the same amount or less than the first one. Basketball.
If San Diego Chargers +7½ Win only Risking $110.” or is cancelled for any reason.A two team reverse bet merely reverses the order of an initial “if bet”. a “push. All reverse bets are double action: the remaining bets in the sequence will be placed if the preceding bet is a win. Reverses Combinations Odds for a $100 Bet Win or Tie Win only $220 to win $400 $220 to win $400 . than the actual amount of money that the customer must risk would be $660. If the first bet is a winner then your second bet will have action.Bet example: 2-Team If Bet. ties or cancels then Z (and) If Z wins. Reverses These are simply two straight bets joined together into If Bets that work in both directions of the if clause. to win $100.200. ties or cancels then Z (and) If Z wins. the risk is the same for all the wagers in the reverse. as follows: If X wins. a reverse bet contains two “if bet” sequences. if there are three or more teams. a three team reverse is actually going to be six separate if bets. The more teams selected in the reverse the more possible combinations there will be and the higher the amount of money that must be risked. however. The sequence that would be used would be. they are used for all the major sports except circled games. Example Reverses are a combinations of 2 If Bets . ties or cancels then Y (and) If Y wins.” Placing a reverse bet will include that sequence and its opposite: “if X wins. You can use multiple sports in your combinations. ties or cancels then X. or $110 on each of the if bets.” As you can see. and you must lay down or risk an equal amount for each one: an if bet for $110 is $220 as a reverse bet. ties or cancels then X If X wins. Therefore. If each of the teams in this reverse were for $100. in order to win a maximum of $1. ties or cancels then Y. and no buying points is allowed. ties or cancels then X If Y wins. An “if bet” (double action) follows the sequence “if X wins. then the reverse bet would be broken down or "boxed" into all the possible two team if bets using those three teams and each of those if bets would be reversed. or twelve separate straight bets. ties or cancels then Y” AND “if Y wins. ties or cancels then Y. Next bet: USC Trojans over 41 Risking $110 to win $100.
MONEY MANAGEMENT 4. SYSTEMS The main Money Management Systems are: Martingale.1. 4. to win $100. Row of numbers ("Die Abstreichmetode”) and Kelly Criteria .Example Teams Line Price Total Price -110 -110 41 -110 35 44 -110 51 -110 -110 -110 San Diego Chargers +7½ Oakland Raiders USC Trojans -9 Arizona Wildcats -7 -110 +2 Bet example: 2-Team Reverse If San Diego Chargers +7½ Win only Risking $110. The next element and a vital one is Money Mangement. IF USC Trojans over 41 Win or Tie Risking $110 to win $100. you know what the alternatives are tyo build your own strategy to win in betting. Risking a total of $220 to win $400 Now. after you reviewed the bet types.
with . these systems are known under other names. but the function should be the same no matter the name. let the customer feel he's winning. The profesional bettor do not get carried away after a few wins. You bet 100$. Follow this example: You've found a game with odds +100 for home victory. Profesional bettors know that sportsbooks operate this way. and therefore they wait patiently for the next round with extra good prices offered. (presenting good prices every now and then. Or if you have the sufficient cool when you hit a long losing run. If you lose again. Sportsbooks know that even if they present a few good odds (I mean really good odds). espescially after the sportsbook has had a few good weeks (often weeks with surprise results.. because the average bettor will feel aroused by his winnings.a "Die Abstreichmetode"). There are 3 systems for money management which are widely used by bettors: Martingale. thereby increasing their sportsbook account. Originally designed for use in casinos. average bettors will most probably deposit more money. and bettors' accounts are running empty. or what ? Certainly. because he knows that the customer most likely will have an empty account in a few weeks time due to his poor money management anyway.and the Kelly criteria Ofcourse. he's getting eager. He knows what to expect. This means that you eventually will be ensured a profit. you can be a lousy bettor. and most certainly win this time. and start to bet more often and often with higher stakes. this system has nothing to do with picking objects. Fantastic system. Unevitably. etc). "Row of numbers" (a. with a solid interest on top. Martingale Martingale is probably the best known system for money management. and if you win. Sportsbooks can from time to time present very good prices. as the game ends in an away win.. The 100$ payoff is equal to what you would've won on your first bet. and acts thereafter. you double your stakes. Or if the bookie would drop his maximum bet limit. but you lose. Martingale is a system which helps you control your stakes.k. With Martingale.. you start all over on your starting stake. If you win this time. Next time you bet 200$ on a game with odds +100. The principle of the Martingale system is as follows: If you lose. Remember. many favorites losing. but he's definitivly much better with money management. thus generating more cash flow. you've placed a total stake of 100+200+400 =700$. and eventually more money in the sportsbook coffers). the bookie's getting his money back. and you've won 100$ for your efforts. The profesional bettor is not necessarily better to predict an events outcome than other bettors . but still win money. The sportsbook will see this loss as a short term investment. you must bet 400$ on a game with odds +100. if you had unlimited funds available. Please not that Martingale is a system with very high risk of going broke.. get money circulation. This is fine by the bookie.The average bettor loose his money to the sportsbook largely as a result of poor money management.
While Martingale can quickly give you your stakes back including a profit. It's better to underestimate rather than overestimate your abilities. it would look like this: 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Determining your first stake: . If you want to play on games with an average odds of +100.. But Row of numbers is not as tough as Martingale though. given a fixed odds. you must try to decide an average probability for a win. With a 40% chance of predicting the +100 object correctly. and remove numbers when you win..odds=+100. and should be used by bettors with large funds and no nerves. Row of numbers does not repay your losses that quick. Too many people think they'll have to win soon when they've lost many in a row. E. you will have to make up for it by increasing your stakes. you have no greater chance of winning the sixth time. but when you lose you must add a number to the row.g 1000 $. As a result of this.. you get to remove 2 numbers on the list (the first and last number). If you overestimate your ability. Martingale is in other words a very dangerous system. so to say. set your probability to 40% (or thereabouts). And losing 5 times in a row is not too difficult with odds +100. you will have to wager 32 times your original stake if you lose 5 times in a row. because when you win you must remove the first and last number in the row. and has a lot in common with Martingale (recovering from losses by increasing stakes). you will lose 60% of the picks. Then you have to figure out how long it's going to take to reach your goal. When you lose you must add a number at the end of the list. If we draw this row of numbers. The fact is that the chances for a win is just as big (or small if you like) as when you started the betting sequence. Row of numbers gives you more flexibility compared to Martingale because you can adjust your stakes in a more suitable way. Martingale is not a suitable money management system for the average bettor due to it's heavy level of progression Row of numbers The German word for this system is "Die Abstreichmetode".. Let's have a look at the system: First decide how much you want to win. This is the tricky part. In my opinion. If we imagine the 1000$ split into 20 50$ wins. You need to have better control with your betting. The disadvantage is that this system requires more effort from you. This is also a system well known from casinos. given the 40% chance of winning with odds=+100(a 50% chance means you're betting even with the sportsbook). Thus you lose 50% more often than you win (60/40). and increasing the stakes can easily become rather unpleasant if you hit a losing streak. as you have to make a row of numbers on a piece of paper and add numbers when you lose. And even if you have lost 5 times in a row. In the case of winning. we can calculate how long you will have to bet in order to get a 1000$ total win. but it does not lead to big stakes either (which Martingale does).
If the odds given is +100.As explained above. the risk of bankruptcy is virtually eliminated. In order to win 100$. If the odds are . you must use a stake which will give you 100$ in net profit. Before starting with this kind of system. you will only bet on the home team if you think it has a 50% chance or more. or better than the sportsbook. the first and last number will be removed if you win. If you win.the formula is (oddsXamount you want to win)/100 and the result is the amount you need to bet to win the profit you want. .33$. Kelly criteria Systems like Martingale and Row of numbers use high level of progresion to make up for the bettors lack of margins. stakes are successivly increased when losing. You must ofcourse substitute "odds" with the actual odds offered on your object. If the odds is 175 you must bet 133. your pre-betting calculations is of highest importance. you'll have to bet 100$. 50+50=100. The stakes are decided by a percentage of the size of your funds. the American who invented this theory and formula. The Kelly Criteria has got it's name from John L. and then start fresh again. The method of determining the stake is: If the odds are + you need to bet 100$ to win the amount. you must remove the first and last number in the row. and see the importance of modesty when determining your own predicting ability. Kelly. If a home team has got odds = +100. If the odds is -150 you must bet 200$. progresion increases when you are winning. The Kelly Criteria requires that the bettor have the probabilities on his side. Even though this system does not produce such a high level of progresion as Martingale. it's still a rather dangerous system. be sure to run a test period with fake stakes for a month or so. In the Kelly Criteria. When using Kelly. Therefore. In these systems. If you hit a losing streak. and decreases when you are losing. things can easily get out of hand. it's expected that the bettor can bet even with. In the Kelly Criteria. You will learn the system. thus the bettor are running a high risk of bankruptcy.
If you've not set yourself a goal. This is due to the fact that Kelly's formula optimizes your stakes if you are able to predict with a high degree of accurracy. How often. Picking value objects correctly.e you overestimate your predictions). If you overestimate your ability to predict an outcome (i. Use services on the Internet to compare odds from several sportsbooks. and often enough. so you have to shop around with several sportsbooks. Sportsbooks rarely offer many valueobjects during a week. When you find an object which you think has got value. If you underestimate your ability to predict the outcome (i. If the odds presented is +100. and how well you are able to pick value-objects Experience is vey important in the art of sportsbetting. you will lose money compared to flat stake betting Before starting with Kelly.e you predict a 55% chance. because the stakes are decided as a percentage of the actual size of your fund. Do not expect to find value in more than 2-5 events during a week. when the chance is 60%).e you predict a 60% chance. decide upon the following: Size of your fund A fund sized 10-15 times the size of your normal singlebet is enough. If you instead have a small disadvantage for evey game you pick (i. reset your fund when . the team MUST have more than a 50% chance for victory. Ofcourse these funds must be funds you can afford to lose. but not as much as if you were betting with flat stakes. and look for objects with a high spread. Kelly's theory says that if you can determine a somewhat correct probability for an events outcome. you will win money. Remember that with the Kelly Criteria. is ofcourse the trickiest part. finish the project when your goal is reached. check this event carefully. because the size of the stake is directly related to the winning probability (which is your subjective opinion). and thereby strenghtening your moral and dicipline. With Kelly you make money by having only a small advantage on every game you pick. you will not lose all your money straight away. Only by gaining experience you can become a clever bettor. This way you get to realise the money you've earned. High spread means that sportsbooks have different views to what is the correct odds on a match. you will pay for it by losing money. Lenght of the project For how long will you continue to play with this system? If you have set yourself a goal with your betting. when the correct prediction should be 52%). and start all over again. Crastinum and Gamblersdomain are examples of excellent free services. The sportsbooks do not offer a lot of value objects.In short. then the formula will determine the exact amount of your funds which you should bet on that event.
I won't bother you with advanced statistics (infact I'm not so sure I understand it myself either. If your average stake is 10% of your total funds. i. .. and start it all over again. and still have nearly 48% of your funds left (take 0. Make your earnings visible. then you can lose 6 times in a row. you will not experience great changes to your account. When the size of the fund is low. the extra 5% on each game. As a result of this. your next stake will also be low. If you lose. not you. Kelly is the system of the profesional bettor. But be ware of the dangers represented with these systems. With Kelly you make money by having the required little margin. the chance of losing 10 times in a row (at odds=+100) is 1/3000 !!! Kelly is not a system which provides rapid changes to your account. If you have a low risk profile (you consider betting to be an investment with slightly more risk than a stockfund). This is due to the fact that your next stake is a percentage of the fund's actual size.9 and multiply with itself 6 times). but also for the sake of their own satisfaction (when the prediction turns out to be a good one). Remember as long as your money is in the sportsbook account. decide when to reset your fund when you have reach a predefined amount. Lets examine the system closer: The biggest advantage with the Kelly Criteria is that you will lose less money when your fund is low. and only if. or Row of numbers. If you have the margins on your side. then Martingale. but if you've got the probabilities on your side (you bet with a 10% advantage on the bookie every time). it's the sportsbook who possesses the money. could be your money management system. a system for bettors who thrive for perfection. and you know you are able to predict slightly better than the sportsbook. Their progression rate can be devastating.).e the sportsbook. Kelly is a system for bettors who do not bet jut for the sake of money. Kelly makes your stakes increase. and can take the mickey out of your projet long before it's even started. Conclusion If you are a bettor with a high risk profile (you like to gamble). And what's the point of earning money when you cannot use them as you please ? Therefore. you can predict better than the "enemy". then Kelly is your system. stakes will decrease.it approaches 100% payoff. A system who optimizes the handling of your funds. if.. and you know that you rarely predict better than the sportsbook.
Your return will vary with every goal scored. you will win a lot more than in fixed odds betting. Due to the nature of spread betting. and the whole thing can become rather unpleasant. one bad bet can make huge inrows in your account.4.2. Spread betting is much more "dangerous". However. If you don't have a goal with your betting. you may start betting harder to make up for earlier losses. you may risk to lose quite a lot. every corner. In spread betting. DO NOT BET BEFORE YOU UNDERSTAND THE GAME. etc. It's not like fixed odds betting. but it's not for novices. take a few moments thinking over the following: What is spread betting ? Spread betting has become very popular in recent years. In spread betting. You may start betting every day. if you are better to predict than the sportsbook. it may get out of hand. Spread betting. something for you? . it's important to set yourself a goal. SPREAD BETTING With sportsbetting as with everything else in life. You should be aware of the risks with spread betting. Therefore. more exciting. and as a result. you suddenly place impulsive bets. every booking. But it's also possible to lose very large amounts indeed ! Spread betting is the most exciting method of betting. if you fail to predict better than the sportsbook. and be sure you understand the rules. due to the possible massive returns on low investments. you do not know excactly how much you will win/lose before the event has finished.
If you are right. withing a range of values (normally 0-100). fast. However. and how much you can lose. you will win. but be ware that your potential los can exceed that deposit. In my opinion. If you bet higher than the bookie's prediction. The sportsbook will offer a spread. If you are wrong. depending on how accurate you are with your predictions. Companies who offer spreads will normally ask for a deposit.Spread betting is a high risk form of betting. and when you bet lower. you think the outcome will be lower than the bookie expects. but only with an amount which is determined by the correctness of your bet (i. You must then decide whether to bet higher or lower than the sportsbook's predictions. you think that the result will become higher than the bookie thinks. but only with an amount which is determined by the incorrectness of your bet (i. This is known as the sportsbooks opening prediction.e the difference between the actual outcome and the bookie prediction). you will lose. You will know how much you may win. Only play with money you can afford to lose. You may lose a lot.e the difference between the actual outcome and the bookie prediction). The sportsbook will perhaps offer a spread of 40-60. meaning you will always know before you place the bet what the possible outcome is. spread betting is not for the ordinary bettor. or win a lot. EXAMPLE: The possible outcome for a bet could be 0-90 (also called "the range") . Spread betting is different. and are willing and able to absorb the loses. then spreads is the most exciting form of betting available! Fixed odds vs spread betting Fixed odds betting is "fixed". Spead betting is a dangerous form of betting. if you want to win big.
You have won by 10 points. In this example.The sportsbook quotes an "opening spread of 40-50". or "Lower than 50". and the amount you have won is found by the difference in points between outcome and bet. You place your bets staking for instance 10$ per point. Incorrect bet: If you bet "Lower than 40") you lose. You have lost by 30 points. Correct bet: If you bet "Higher than 50") you win. Spread betting is a dangerous game !!) . can't make any bets other than the two listed above. we say that the outcome was 70. 0-40) Important: You. and multiplied with your stake of 10$. the bookie thinks the outcome will be between 40 and 50. When the bets are placed you sit back and wait for the outcome. your return gives 10$ x 20 = 200$. ie. and the amount you have lost is found by the difference in points between outcome and bet. The bettor has now got 2 options: 1 Higher than 50 (known as "Buy at 50") You will win if the outcome exceeds 50 (ie. and multiplied with your stake of 10$. 70-40 = 30. ie. In other words. 70-50 = 20. You can't place a bet. your now owe the bookie 10$ x 30 = 300$ !!! (now you see what I mean. 50-90 or more) 2 Lower than 40 (known as "Sell at 40") You will win if the outcome is lower than 40 (ie. saying "Higher than 35".
But the point is that you don't actually place the stake before the event takes place. the smaller profitmargin for the bookie. in a 40-50 spread. you would also lose 10$*5 points = 50$. No "hidden surprises". Example: You bet "Higher than 50". Due to the high risk of spread betting. Result is 45. Depending on the type of account you have. If you had bet on "Higher than 50". your stake is the maximum possible loss (related to your bet). Money are placed in front of the bet. then the bookie will win the difference multiplied with your stake. due to his profit margin. Actually the sportsbook wins. you always know how much you may win. Different methods of staking are used. there are 2 methods used for this: . Spread bets are different. and the result was 45. and the result was 45. Placing the bets Previously we've stated that spread bets are not placed the same way as fixed odds bets. then "nobody" wins. as in fixed odds betting.No win situation If the outcome is between the spread quoted by the bookie (in this case 40-50). This is ofcourse the sportsbooks profit margin The smaller the spread. and how much you may lose. Spread bets are placed typically in $ per unit (or any other currency per unit). Sportsbook wins (50-45) * 10$ = 50$ !! If you bet on "Lower than 40". With fixed odds betting.
(ie a defined range. the maximum loss you can experience is 60 points (difference between 60 and 0). Debit Account Example: If you place a bet "Higher than 60" (buy at 60). 500$ will be recredited your card (remember that 600$ was originally debited) Types of spreads. There are no money paid when the bet is placed. You will then lose (60-50) points * 10$ = 100$. Depending on the result of the event. for instance 0-100).1 Credit Account . A maximum loss can then be calculated before the bet is placed. A stake of 10$ per unit requires that 10$*60 =600$ is debited from your card before the bet. because they might vary from bookie to bookie.funds are already deposited to an account. as they may vary with different sportsbooks. Upon placing bets. Ofcourse this form of staking are used in bets where there is a defined win/loss cut-off. Wins/losses are paid/withdrawn from the account. this will normally not count) 38-42 (although varies depending on type of match) . Check the rules . such as Mastercard or Delta. 2 Debit Accounts . but there must be sufficient funds available in the account to cover a potential loss. the maximum possible loss is debited from the card.here debitcards are used. These are the most common types of spread betting: First goal First booking Total goals Margin of win Others Time of first goal: Value range: Typical spread: 0-90 (if a goal occurs in the 90th minute. funds are credited back to the card. Let's assume the outcome of the bet is "50". Be sure to check rules carefully on this point as well. Football and soccer spreads are very popular.
(44-32) x 3$ = 36$ loss Total goals: Value range: Typical spread: Example: 0-unlimited 1. Then bet at "Lower than 28". Then bet at "Lower than 38". Result: Your return: First goal scored in the 21. Result: Return: First yellow card in the 44th minute. at for instance 3$ per minute.3 at for instance 3$/ tenth.3 (varies greatly) You think that there will be 2 or more goals in a game where the bookie offer the spread 1. at for instance 2$ per minute.7-2.Example: You predict there will be a goal before the 38th minute. (38-21)* 2$ = 34$ win Time of first booking: Value range: Typical spread: Example: 0-90 (booking in the 90th minute normally does not count) 28-32 minutes (but varies from match to match) You predict there will be a booking before the 28th minute.7-2. (3 goals) (30-23) x 3$ = 21$ win . minute.3. Result: Return: 2-1 to the away team. Then you bet on "Higher than 2.
thus you bet on "Higher than 0.3=0. you would lose (23-20)x3$ = 9$) Please note !!! objective I guess you are confused by betting on tenths of a goal.7) Margin of win: Value range: Typical spread: Example: -unlimited to + unlimited 0. If you bet on "Lower than 1.3" it means that if you are correct.7-1. You predict the home team will win by at least 1 goal. you will minimum win 3. ofcourse) The bookie belives the home team will win by a narrow margin.0 = 0. (3 goal margin) (30-5) x 5$ = 125$ win Lets assume your team lost by 2 goals: Return: (-20-5) x 5$ = -125$ loss .0-2.0-0.0.0 .7 goals = 7 units. thus presenting the spread 0.7".(if it ended a 1-1 draw.5 home team (but varies a lot. lets say 5$ per tenth. The main with a spread like the one quoted above is to decide minimum wins if you bet correctly.5. If you bet on "Higher than 2.5" with a stake of. you will minimum win 7 units (1. Result: Return: Your team wins 4-1.
If you are correct.. I wouldn't waste too much money on this type of betting.. You decide whether to bet higher or lower.. Examples: Time of Second Goal. Your return will vary with virtually every kick of the ball. but can be very exciting and amusing when watching a match in front of the TV with your friends :) Time of . Generally a spread can be offered for everything that can be measured !!! Conclusion Spread betting is a very exciting form of betting.. 3 yellows and 1 red gives a total of 55 points).... . The sportsbook quotes a spread based on this total. Time of 2nd-Half First Goal. go buy yourself a lotto coupon instead !! There are of course lots of other spread betting offers. In-match betting has also become popular in recent years. Time of Last Goal. with the advantages and disadvantages which may follow. This makes spread betting ideal for televised games.. etc. Add together the points of all the cards in a match (for instance. Total Corners: How may corners will there be in a match? This is ofcourse more like bingo. but it's equally expensive for you wallet if you are wrong. Other spreads Other typical spread offers are listed below: Total Bookings: The sportsbook awards a number of points for a yellow card (normally 10) and a red card (normally 25). you pay a heavy prize if you are wrong in your predictions. you are rewarded well. but the same system can be applied to many other minute-by minute events. Nowadays most sportsbooks accept spreads on the most popular leagues.As you can see.: Time of First Goal and Time of First Booking are mentioned above. etc. With in-match betting you can place bets during the match.
which can be difficult for non-professionals to access. 1.22 of risk-free profit regardless of which team won the match. are created everyday in sports-betting markets amongst the growing number of worldwide sportsbooks in existence. but also the method which will rob you if you are not up to standards. AN EXAMPLE A NFL match between Atlanta Falcons & Jacksonville Jaguars returned the following marketanomaly between William Hill & Gamebookers: ATLANTA JACKSONVILLE GAMEBOOKERS WILLIAM HILL -117 +150 This arbitrage yields a profit of just over 6%. These anomalies show up regularly & repeatedly. 4. Be aware of that. The difference in price represents an immediate risk-free profit that is independent of the subsequent movement in price of the instruments traded. SPORTS-ARBITRAGE Numerous arbitrage situations. This technique has long been used in financial markets.Spread betting is the form of betting which best repays your skills.3. meaning that a correctly structured investment of $1000 would yield $63. PREPARE YOURSELF .ARBITRAGE(RISK-FREE BETS) Arbitrage A trading technique whereby exactly offsetting positions are taken in a market simultaneously but at different prices. scalps and risk free bets. and remember to read the rules carefully. also referred to as surebets.
It is best to open up 2 (or 3) separate browser windows so that you can have one sportsbook in each.: If you use the links provided then you will also receive the highest bonuses currently on offer from each sportsbook. Lesson 2 will explain in more detail what to look out for. you will bet. plus a whole lot more. You can check the online arbitrage-events calendar to see what events are taking place that are likely to yield risk-free betting opportunities: 3. because you will never be gambling. This will not the case for you. 4. Soccer. including how much you need to stake on each outcome. And remember . however. Baseball and a number of others. 6. Place your bets. 5. The reason these companies give out such bonuses is because they know that most gamblers will just lose it by betting. check through the prices offered by the sportsbooks you have decided to use and make a list of which ones are offering the best prices on the events you are covering. consider using spreadsheets. but if you want to take this opportunity seriously. 2.Open all of the important sportsbook accounts NOW so that you are ready to pounce as soon as an arbitrage is created. CALCULATE THE PERCENTAGES FROM THE ODDS Use these tables to assess whether the prices you have will produce an arbitrage betting opportunity. As an Sports Arbitrage Trader. Conversion Tables The tables are a rather old-fashioned way of going about this though. These run from 10% to 40% so you will find yourself in profit before you even begin. MAKE A NOTE OF YOUR ACTIVITY IN YOUR ACCOUNTS . FIND AN EVENT LIKELY TO YIELD AN ARBITRAGE OPPORTUNITY These events include US Football. This will allow you to place your bets almost simultaneously. Cricket. CHECK THE PRICES BEING OFFERED ON THE EVENTS YOU HAVE CHOSEN Using the internet. Golf. Basketball. and I recommend that you consider upgrading to spreadsheets for this operation . but you will ALWAYS make a profit. ACT QUICKLY & PLACE YOUR BETS Once you have found an arbitrage opportunity.you will not need to place any funds on any of the accounts until you actually have an arbitrage opportunity to invest in. act immediately. Boxing. You can do this with paper. pen and a calculator.it performs all of the necessary calculations for you. Tennis.
4. The two types of betting have been included here because they are related directly with the money management and they can have a different impact on your bankroll than the normal bets. 2. 7. the safest way to achieving this goal. STAKING PLANS There are really two parts to a successful betting strategy. including Martingale. Rolling Bank and many more.transfers from account to account. Kelly. What this actually means in practice is a study of staking strategy and money management. assess and mitigate the perils associated with his betting strategy through effective risk management. the application of a bankroll of known size. the identification of a suitable staking plan.It's important to keep track of all of the bets you place and the flow of funds. some with very elaborate names. however. which if lost would not be detrimental to everyday living. outgoing payments. pending and actual returns. The first is to find a successful method of predicting sporting events through the principles of value betting. however. There exist myriad staking plans. Instead. Note every transaction you make . Oscar's Grind. it really does work and you really can choose how often you want to generate a risk-free profit. the bettor must learn to identify. his second task is to plan a staking strategy in order to maximize his profits. wagers placed. but common elements include: 1. the reduction and control of bankruptcy risk to acceptable levels. Merely increasing the stake size or the odds on a bet with a view to securing a greater return is not. D'Alembert.just set it up to include each bank and credit card account plus each sportsbook account. Proper money management may mean different things to different people. 4. no betting system will be successful. Where a bettor has achieved one. All of them in some way attempt to increase the profits a bettor can win above those achievable from simple . Steady Drip. Be sure to give each arbitrage investment its own ID number so that you can easily tie all related transactions together. set aside for the purposes of betting. You can customise any accounts software to do this . REPEAT STEPS ALL OF THE STEPS AS MANY TIMES AS YOU WANT TO! Yes. 3. The downside to such a basic approach is an increase in bankruptcy risk. Without an edge. 4. the maximization of returns.
Finally. like level staking. variable staking. an unprofitable record is not necessarily evidence of a flawed betting system. may choose to standardize the amount he wins for every successful bet. since this just represents one permutation of all possible betting histories due to the inherent randomness or noisiness in the way sporting results sequence themselves. Where the odds differ. or level. Broadly speaking. in particular the progressive staking plans. this will amount to level staking. percentage staking. with an unacceptable increase in risk.level staking. from a statistical perspective. Where all the odds are the same. it is not simply good enough to analyze your own betting record. regardless of the betting odds. Percentage (bank) staking. every bet placed is assigned the same stake size. a staking strategy is likely to fall into one of 4 different categories: 1. fixed staking. although the bettor will be very tempted to give it up. Similarly. This strategy might suitably be called the fixed profits staking plan. is a hybrid of percentage and fixed profits staking. staking. progressive staking involves increasing or decreasing the stake size after each bet. The Martingale and Pyramid staking plans are two examples of loss chasers. but for many. for example. The most suitable staking strategy for a bettor will depend extensively on his attitude to profit making and risk taking. A profitable record cannot. Many bettors see weaknesses with level staking and prefer to vary the size of their bets according to various criteria. with a view to recovering earlier losses or enhancing gains whilst on a winning run. For fixed. A common misconception amongst less-experienced bettors is that some staking strategies. but basically they all share a common goal. A bettor. In the main they are successful. according to whether it won or lost. standardizes the size of the stake. A short-term gambler may prefer to stake large and risk more in an attempt to make a quick and sizeable profit. including their strength and their odds. define the chance its underlying strategy has of failing. Conversely. Level staking forms the benchmark staking strategy against which all others should be compared for profitability and risk evaluation. To examine its exposure to risk. To circumvent this difficulty. 3. The problem. 4. Kelly staking. The best way to achieve this is to simulate it using a computer model. 2. on its own. but as a percentage of the size of the current betting bank at the time the bet is placed. one must resort to a statistical analysis of the staking plan. and progressive staking. There are other. a long-term fixed odds "investor" . rather than as a fixed number of points proportional to the initial bankroll. This is impossible and represents a misunderstanding of the mathematical principles that underlie such strategies. the stake sizes will vary. which goes further than simple percentage bank staking by seeking to optimize the stake size according the odds and the edge the bettor has estimated he has over the sportsbook. is that to test any staking strategy one needs to have a reasonable number of results with which to work. more complex staking progressions. can turn loss-making systems into profitable ones.
Then. The first week he makes 5 wagers of $110 to win $100 and goes 4-1. Scenario C – Risking your balance. Take a look at the following four scenarios and hopefully you won’t recognize any of these habits as yours. Bill is also a $100 player but has a slightly smaller bankroll than Alan. He makes 6 plays of $110 and goes 2-4 for a loss of $240 (2 wins of $100 and 4 losses of $110). His balance is now $210 and he risks it all on a Sunday 1pm game. He now thinks his handicapping skills are so sharp that he can beat the house on any week and now raises his plays to $200.5%).will prefer to employ more a more conservative staking strategy. A bettor who acknowledges and understands the uncertainties inherent in fixed odds sports betting. Lowering the size of your plays after a shortterm losing period or not having enough funds to make your plays will also benefit the books when your turn to win comes. For the week. he decides to go for the big win and risks the whole amount again on the Sunday night game. will be better able to choose a strategy best suited to his risk-reward preferences. Even the worst bettors seldom lose more than 55% of their picks. Raising the size of your plays after a short-term winning period will benefit the House greatly if and when things even out. which he wins. which he also wins to bring his balance to just over $400. Scenario D – Chasing your losses. Alan has lost $190 despite going 6-5 overall (54. If he had simply played $110 on all 11 games he would have made $50 in profit. For the week he has lost $480 (2 wins of $200 and 4 losses of $220). What you have to know is there are a lot of bad money management strategies to avoid and that is what you will cover below. In the second week he makes 6 bets of $220 to win $200 and goes 2-4. The easiest way to explain is to show a few examples. He typically plays half a dozen or so games a week and is a dedicated handicapper. which he loses. Charlie has now lost $110 despite going 3-1. He is now down $231 and is really . however. where staying in the game is more important than making fast money. Remember books have a 50/50 chance of wiping you out when you put all your action on any one game and those odds will catch up with you eventually. Here are a few traps that you should avoid if you want to be net winner at the end of the day. This week he wins 4 of the 5 and makes $145 (4 wins of $50 and 1 loss of $55). he has made a profit of $290 (4 wins of $100 and 1 loss of $110). a great week by any standard. His bankroll is now too small to be able to play $100 a game so in the second week he only makes 5 plays of $55 to win $50 each. David has a bankroll of $1000. Wagering $110 for each of the four games would have yielded a profit of $190. He posts up $110 and risks it all on a single game Saturday night. Scenario A – Raising your bet amounts. He is frustrated at losing the money and wants to win it back so he wagers $121 (to win $110) on a second game and loses as well. Charlie likes to take big risks for big rewards. Money management theories and systems abound but I have yet to see any proof that any of them really work. Feeling lucky. Alan is a $100 player. Here is the key point you need to understand – poor money management generates more losses for players than bad handicapping. Good money management is what separates the pros from novice bettors. Scenario B – Lowering your bet amounts. He wagers $110 on a game and loses. He now has the same overall winning record as Alan (6-5) but is down $95 anyway. he puts the whole amount on a 4pm game and wins again to get his balance to an incredible $765 (and change) in less than a day. So overall.
frustrated. Thinking he can’t lose 3 in a row. BETTING RECORD .1. and that their money lasted way longer last year than in years prior. Even more importantly. Many books/sites that discuss money management will tell you to only wager 2-5% of your bankroll on any one play. He has now lost $485. affordable and consistent amounts and your bankroll will last a long time. he wagers $254.90 won’t get him back to even but he puts it all in play on another game hoping to get it close (it would be a win of $468. it is very clear to me after years and years of watching some players win consistently and others lose consistently that these are the four worst traps to avoid. Keep your bets to reasonable. I cannot say what the magic number is and I certainly do not have any magic formulas for picking winners or telling you how much to bet. Some said they won money over the course of the season for the first time but most just said it was the first time they had a plan.4% winners. However. 5. you will come out ahead of the book in the long run and that is the only time frame that matters! Good money management will not make you a winner. I had a lot of very nice emails from players who took this advice last season. that still has to come from choosing the right teams. if you can pick more than 52. but it sure will help your bankroll last. He loses the fourth game and has busted out.10 and even a win with his remaining balance of $514. TRACKING 5.10 (to win $231) and loses yet again.09). Losing streaks will happen to every player every year no matter how good they are and players that chase losses will not last for long.
5. Betting Records for individual Bettors will vary.2. By keeping a betting record the Bettor will gain and fine tune their knowledge of betting.It is essential that the Bettor keeps a betting record. what to bet on. See Team Analysis Section for more details. It is necessary to do this such that the Bettor can determine • o o • o o • o o their current betting finances Is the Bettor suited to gambling? Is the staking system suitable? fruitful bet types What bet types are producing the best results? What bet types to avoid? inaccurate Analysis & Selection Criteria Analysis all bets and note any reasons that may have led to an inaccurate forecast. how to bet and where to bet. Sections of Interest : Team Analysis . Step 1 Analyze Teams and create list of teams of interest. Learn from mistakes. CHECK LIST You have here the following checklist to help you in determining whether to bet. some producing more detailed records than others.
Analyze Matches against teams selected. Sections of Interest : Team Analysis . See Match Analysis Section for more details. Sections of Interest : Team Analysis . Betting Strategies differ immensely depending on the type and style of the bettor. Sections of Interest : Odds Types Step 4 Determine the Bet Type that is suited to the selected outcomes that adhere to the Bettor's Betting Strategy as described in the Bet Types Section. Sections of Interest : Team Analysis . There are 2 basic types of bettor: • • those who bet to win those who bet for fun . Sections of Interest : Bet Types Step 5 Maintain a Betting Record following the principles outlined in the Betting Record Section 6. create list of matches of interest.Match Analysis Step 3 Analyze the Odds for the selected outcomes as stated in the Odds Analysis Section. See Match Analysis Section for more details.Match Analysis or Analyze Matches and create list of matches of interest. BETTING STRATEGY A betting strategy is a must for any successful bettor.Match Analysis Step 2 Analyze Matches in detail checking out details as stated in the Team Analysis Section.
) Staking System (Fixed Weekly Amount. A betting strategy should include the following Analysis & Selection System Team Analysis Match Analysis League Analysis Odds Analysis Bet Types Staking System (Money Management) Betting Record The Bettor should decide on a betting strategy that suits their remit. This is a never-ending process where knowledge. Other bettors will go for accumulators citing the returns as the value of the bet. more adrenaline rushes than the bet for fun Bettor. Top v Bottom etc. A bet to win Bettor has more fun. sometimes doing some research. Bear in mind a betting strategy can be as complicated or as simple as the Bettor deems necessary. practice and experience are the corner stones of a successful betting strategy.. but long term this will turn in to a loss. continually analysis it and learn from it...The ideal bettor is one who combines both of these characteristics. 100% Recent Form. stick to it. % of Bank etc. Some sportsbooks propose betting on the smallest combination of results available unless the odds allow you to cover your bet with draws. The bet for fun Bettor will bet with the heart and gut feelings. The bet to win Bettor will have invested more time and energy in doing their research on systems. Betting Strategies vary according to the style of the bettor.. Short term profits can be eroded quickly as the bet for fun bettor can get carried away and squander their profits.) In terms of Bet Type. selections etc. implementing and sticking to a betting strategy. how much to bet.. how to bet. and where to bet. etc. Know when to bet. What follows is a general structure of the various components of a betting strategy. Betting Styles can differ on the following counts • • • Analysis & Selection Criteria (Home Win Only. The bet for fun bettor in general will make some short term profit. The number of variables listed in the above . Teasers. some bettors religiously stick to singles thus reducing the number of variables affecting the outcome of the bet. Parlays. sometimes not. A bet for fun Bettor can easily progress to become a bet to win Bettor by choosing. League Matches Only.) Bet Types (Straight Wagers. The key to long term success is discipline.
The Psychology behind the Betting Strategy is the single most important thing that account for your winning or losing in the world of betting. -a mix of the two. That explains why so many people are winning in sports betting. form. He takes into account injuries. What you read so far is valuable information that will help you build the strategy that fits your personality and to which you adhere completely. If you choose one kind of strategy stick to it long enough to give it the time to perform. You have all the elements to know what to change in your strategy and why if it doesn’t perform as you would like. No. Also if you look at the way they use the information the betting strategies are used following 3 basic approaches: -technical-the bettor uses only statistical data to find patterns on teams. In the following section we will take an in-depth look at this aspect. 1 Rule is to enjoy betting. He starts with the conviction that the result on the field is the result of the performance of the teams at the moment of the match. Too few variables may prove futile. favorite vs. One element that has a major influence on the overall performance of your betting is the selfdiscipline to follow a certain system and not to try to override it in any way once you decided how to play. non-favorite and so on. Now you have all the components to build a winning strategy. matches. the actual matches have no importance and the bettor is looking that the predetermined statistical data will appear sooner or later. too many variables makes the process tedious. What is important for you to know is that you decide what kind of strategy you use and not to change it in the short term because the effect of the probabilities is gone if you do. . streaks and so on. Treat it carefully because here the difference between winners and losers is made.components may appear daunting. The most important thing that accounts for the success of the bettor and the one that recieves the least amount of attention is the Psychology involved in the betting. however. in reality you will only use a subset of them. -fundamental-the bettor analyzes the teams and matches from the current perspective and value at the moment of the match.
The best way for you to avoid these . Over the time.1 COMMON PROBLEMS Knowing yourself means understanding how you’re likely to behave under various circumstances. PSYCHOLOGY 7.7. researchers in psychology have developed a clearer understanding of the psychological traps bettors fall in.
However. it is easy to make the mistake of thinking that this coin has only one in sixteen chance of coming up heads. The decisions of bettors are affected by how a problem. It is not the same if you see opportunities or threats after a series of losses that you had in your betting. many people know how to figure that there is only one in sixteen chances that a fair coin will come up heads four times in a row. the coin does not remember past tosses and feels no obligation to even out the number of heads and . Best players in the sports betting arena or in gambling in general have an understanding of these concepts built into their betting strategies. the forms they take. and which you are most likely to fall into. Here again. You must keep in mind that you don’t have nothing to prove. If you do. Anchoring and adjusting. In making a decision. is presented. ways can cause people to make different choices. even when circumstances change. Irrational escalation of a commitment. Improper framing.traps is to become aware of them. Players tend to make choices that justify past decisions. and it often leads people to bet more money and to bet more often than they otherwise would. or set of circumstances. If you play to win and not for pleasure only. Here are five common issues: • • • • • Over-confidence. Confirmation trap. and objectively equal. This common mistake is sometimes called the gambler's fallacy. Psychologists discovered that people consistently overrate their abilities. You must also understand how you tend to react under stress. The game is not a personal quest against the betting or against some sportsbook. Even the same problem framed in different. It seems that the coin should make the average of past tosses come out right. Gamblers must seek and weigh quality feedback and stay within their circle of competence. People with different personality profiles behave in dissimilar ways when stressed. and skill—especially in areas outside of their expertise. But if the coin has already come up heads three times in a row. Framing. they must only consider future costs and benefits. hence anchoring our subsequent thoughts. The Gambler's Fallacy One of the easiest mistakes you could make in betting is thinking that past bets influence future ones. too. For instance. so pay attention to your reactions and stick to your predetermined plan.The gambler's fallacy and concept of availability error are key for gamblers. It is very important that you keep your discipline even after a series of losses and get on with your system. we often give disproportionate weight to the first information we receive. You can downplay this risk by seeking information from a variety of sources and talking to various people. To avoid this trap. Gamblers tend to seek out information that supports their existing point of view while avoiding information that contradicts their opinion. After a win people tend to over-play. But in reality. then the chances that it will do so for the fourth time are the same as they would be if it had never been tossed before-one in two. self-awareness and some basic techniques to offset suboptimal behavior go a long way. plays a central role in assessing probabilities. your job is to make money and not to be right. you ruin the chances of the probabilities upon which your system is built. knowledge. That’s why you are better if you have somebody to talk to.
This explains why people put more money into bets when they are part of a group. despite the fact that the odds are just as bad for the group as for the individual. This is the common tendency we all have to focus only on good. . we would have no time for anything else. And people consistently do this. For instance. Moreover. in fact. As we make more and more coin tosses. We may also think that if we know or heard of a winner it must not be very hard to play successfully. even far-off. common. the psychological factor plays a big role in sports. is called availability error by psychologists.tails that have come up before. or easily remembered experiences. And if we wanted to hear all the stories of the times that our relatives' acquaintances' friends or our friends' acquaintance's relatives lost money while playing. Many great wins (so called) are. hearing that someone has won at the casino sticks in our mind more than hearing that someone has lost the same casino. But we never hear the story of our colleague’s brother who lost twenty thousand dollars to the sportsbooks gambling on tips with no strategy. Many people have a story about how their cousin or their brother’s boss won onceon some great bet. don’t put your bets on a team that is in a losing or winning streak thinking that it has a bigger chance than normal. where they can hear and see signs that others are winning. where they have no recent memory of someone's winning. but remember to weigh any situation according to the current circumstances. the ratio of heads to the total number of tosses will approach to one half. we tend to assume that because we have heard of this person and have some link to him or her. Because a team has lost the latest three games it doesn’t mean that there is a bigger chance than normal to win the fourth game. when we hear a story about our brother's boss' win. many gamblers aspire to believe they have more information than they really have. But there are several things that are left behind from such stories. Clearly. We remember winners more than losers. and which increases their tendency to over-play. So. by such a network of associations you can hear information of essentially every other person in the entire world. also with respect to the streaks that teams have over the year. forgetting the bad. rather than when they play individually. or less available ones. Memories of winners are simply more available for the large groups than the individuals that play alone. nor does this mean that in the course of a few tosses things will come up even anywhere near. Misunderstanding this fact. and winning must be more likely than we had thought. The sports books take advantage of our tendency toward availability error and exploit our memory of the one great win while encouraging us to forget the many losses. and which serve to lure people to continue betting and losing more money. and mistakenly think that the chances match our memory. but this does not mean that there will be exactly (or even close to) the same number of heads as tails. This is true. and can cause them to be more willing to over-play than they otherwise would. Most important is the fact that someone lost thousands of dollars before and after making that great win. However. Availability Error The second major mistake people make. only small wins that barely cover the cost of playing. unusual.
Money Management How players keep account of their wins or losses tells very much why they are in the game: to win or for the pleasure. The other extreme is players who seem ashamed to win. In short. they are able to concentrate on the betting more accurately and they don’t need to think what will happen if they lose. A small number of players bring bad attitudes into the game and those attitudes prevent them to play appropriately. If they are for the win they should know at all times what their balance is in the game and this is necessary information also to be able to rate their systems and to operate the appropriate changes. but for the sportsbooks. they use betting money to feel tainted. They will not feel great whether they win or lose. Money as the Drug of Choice Some players prefer the low risk game and this is an image of all they do in their life. and we all know what walks! . Yes it’s true that money talks. They don’t like the change and probably they are the same in the day to day life. Having money is their source of safety and spending seems to take away their sense of power. Betting Habits Some players will bet only on sure matches out of an extreme aversion towards risk and consequently they don’t lose much. Doing this. They play on high stakes games and rarely one of them wins. In their private lives they’ll be miserly with money. They are there to make more money so they can show how successful they are. They don’t like to spend money. They are very careful with the bets and they don’t do it for the excitement. The style of playing is a reflection of the personality and beliefs of the player.Some people use drugs and alcohol for excitement. They are not betting for recreation. there are players who put value on their money and they usually do pretty well. while there are players that will risk money only for getting that rush of adrenaline. the majority of players use the betting money properly. At the other end of the stick are the bettors that play on multiple games in the hope they will get the jackpot. “Money is the root of all evil” is the essence of their attitude. but they don’t win much either. They are compulsive players and usually they make money. meaning they don’t bet money that has different destinations. They bet very cautiously and agonize over losing. Moral Money Attitudes On one extreme. However.
How one invests their money can tell a lot about a player.” Money taken from household or business budgets to gamble is always a mistake. That’s why it is essential to test your system based on historical data. Playing hunches without regard to what is possible will identify the poor player. Often. Winners know when to invest their stakes and when to wait. a player may play with what is called “stolen money. At the same time. Betting with no regard to the odds of making a hand is the same as not thinking at the tables or driving blindfolded. ask yourself. Some are loose and some are tight. However for the rest of the players there are 4 areas of expertise. And your system accounts for this. Chasing your luck and getting more and more into debt is not the way to manage your money. 3. some players are organized and others are sloppy. Somewhere in the middle of these traits is ideal. when to increase their size and when to drop it. Money management is one of the essential keys to survival in any gambling endeavor. how do you spend money? Many players bet on hunches only. Most of the money is made from people that don’t have a structured system and play on hunches or inspiration. Betting. 2. If the expectancy is not so great ask yourself what needs to be done to build a system that will ensure that you win in the long-run.7. Others will be very structured and their bets are based on odds. Good players know how to mix hunches with the odds of making wise bets. According to Gamblers’ Anonymous. 1. Managing. Some players will use money that they can’t afford to lose. As well.2 WINNING EDGES Profiling Gamblers How can a gambler or someone who is concerned about a loved one who gambles determine whether there is a problem? Some players are good while some are bad players. Sportsbooks love nonthinking play and may even encourage you by providing bonuses or reduced juice on occasions. Playing styles can range from passive to aggressive and from structured to impulsive. First of all. . and it’s an area where most players can improve. 6 percent of the population is what it is known as compulsive gamblers. to give your system the best of returns make sure that you don’t bet money that you can’t afford to lose. You must play in such a way that you absorb the losses while waiting for the winning bets. Thinking. Good players tend to have guidelines to determine how much to bet. “How do I bet my money?” In other words.
but lose their original stake. . Good players develop the skill to quit. successful players are their own best friends. This is especially true under stress. An internal supportive belief system (about self and others) is one that will sustain players in good times and bad ones. It is insane to do the same thing and to expect different results. When they are winning they are feeling confident and they think that they can do no wrong and consequently they bet more than usual. You bet too much. enjoy the winnings and start again fresh. Stay for a while. Accept that you have a problem and take the required steps towards a new attitude. These players often only give back their winnings. According to the questionnaire that is distributed by Gamblers’ Anonymous. Gambling Awareness. However. 5. you can get away from the game from a while after a long winning streak. Essential Qualities Three essential qualities emerge to combine the best of playing attitudes and aptitudes: . they may have problems with gaming. Responsible players make sure that they have the skills and information required to do their best.4. take the appropriate measures.First of all. Have a guide like leaving the game for a while when you encounter abnormal losing streaks. then you don’t need any advice. get back into the game fresh and with the confidence that you do what you must do and the losses don’t occur as a result of poor execution. it is rather hard to do something without professional help. However. This means that as a responsible player you have internalized a supportive belief system. The sports betting is a game based on skill. Quitting. you must like yourself and know how to take care of yourself during good times as well as bad times. -You must come prepared with the necessary information and skills. If you are aware of what is happening and you enjoy the situation. If your belief system is not dependent on the most recent past bets you are well on your way to win at the game. answering “yes” to seven out of twenty traits will identify compulsive gamblers. Also. If you do. games and the environment in which the event takes place. the majority of gamblers are not compulsive and yet. if you are in the compulsive gambler category. but the luck has its part although it cannot make a winner out of a loser. Rather than being selfdefeating. Skills apply in processing the information available on teams. This includes the wisdom to act on your knowledge and to obtain the knowledge that you lack. and to take risks when the odds are worth it. and never quit when you are ahead? Many players don’t have a win/loss rule and they expect a winning streak to last forever. There are actually three ingredients to success in living life as well as in gambling. Knowing when to leave ahead is important to sports betting. Analyze what happens and if you do everything right.
breaking even is winning enough. When players passively let things happen. Winning There are players. they are likely in one of two modes: Losing or Breaking Even.-Finally. A loser is not actively playing the odds or analyzing the information available. A loser passively lets hands happen. such as blaming everyone except one’s self. not thinking. When players make things happen they are probably winning. You can only allow yourself to succeed when there are no internal conflicts about your skills and about winning. and many more. you will sabotage yourself again and again. Losing is the eventual outcome. you must have permission to apply what talents you’ve developed and to succeed. “almost” players who won’t quite reach their goals. Your set of belief must not stand in your way when it comes to betting. who watch things happen. For others. The ingredients for success in sports betting will also point to success in other facets of your life. winners willanalyze what went wrong and learn something from their mistakes. they may still lack the necessary permission to be successful and the willingness to risk. “I knew that! I wish I had listened to myself. It’s always something or someone outside of themselves . asking themselves what happened. Winning is hard work. Just as some people wait for success to come to them. we all must do things with self-confidence and not rely on others to validate who we are and what we do. On the other hand. The freedom to act on the knowledge and experience you possess is just as important as knowing what to do. Such losing players almost never take responsibility for how they play. “Letting” Things Happen Passivbetting usually involves playing on hunches and feelings. While it’s true that people can be lucky and do win on hunches. passive players complain about how the bad luck stroke them when they were about to win. How often have you said. Losing attitudes abound. Too many players bet in the hope to get that validation from others and measure their success or failure by how much they have won or lost. Winners accept losses rather than pretend they don’t exist.”? Some people play until they are broke and fail to leave when they are well ahead by giving back the hard earned winnings. too many passive players consistently let impulse rule their responses. Besides having positive aptitudes. If you have a deep–rooted belief about not deserving to win. However. players who make things happen. being successful comes from having personal permission to succeed. They are more inclined to let things happen. being too aggressive. You may have the skills along with luck. Simply put. losers prefer to blame everything but themselves. you must install the right set of beliefs that allows you to express at the fullest of your potential. Many good players know how to take care of themselves. In short. They also have obtained the requisite information they need to get the job done. Success comes with learning the basics and then getting the on-the-job experience to develop skills. or too conservative. and still lack the attitude that you are really deserving of success. For some. or at least betting intelligently and having fun. “Making” vs. To win at sports betting. breaking even means risking funds that are needed to pay bills. Players who neither win nor lose are non-winners. While losing streaks happens to everyone at some point. and those who end up broke.
paying attention to the specific information in the game. A loser seldom settles for 4 out of ten wins while winners are happy with decent betting averages. A winner takes these losses. . and playing the odds are attitudes that increase your batting average and enjoyment at the betting game . Just as some people wait for success to come to them. -Set reasonable expectations. Winners accept the realities of the game and play accordingly. players who make things happen. However. others will sit. -Choose to make things happen. That’s why it’s essential that you have the discipline to follow your system. A loser prefers to blame the world. both may be losing at the time but a winner knows when to stop. Its okay to bet to try to hit a big win. They fail to say “no” to losing. “What happened?” Making things happen.Accept responsibility for how you play. Recognize that losing is as much a part of the game as winning. Know that your betting capital has some expectancy and concentrate on the average results rather than on big wins. That is the responsibility of a system: to make sure that over a series of events you come out net winner no matter what happens. and complain. but your betting should be based on solid systems. Players who play what they can afford and stop when they reach that limit are being responsible.that stopped them from winning. a winner will seek solutions and learn something from his mistakes. and then there are players who say. and keep playing to make up their deficits: attitudes of defeat that are all too often selffulfilling. If you override your system the positive expectancy of your system will turn into a negative one because you will chase the results and the possibility to miss increases. you will see irresponsible players betting poor odds at almost every sportsbook. conserving his capital. guilt. lose. and remorse. . you must get used to losing because you will do much of it. Attitude In order to win at sports betting. There are players who watch things happen. lie to others as well as themselves about their losses. The attitude that you have when you enter the game of sports betting better includes the following guidelines if you want to stand a chance to end up net winner. Losers hide it. This is a loser’s favorite game to play. Yet. If it does.Know that it’s okay to lose. or the friend that gave him the tip. Losers seem to evaluate their value by how close to perfect they are. the sportsbook. anger. but at the end of the day don’t expect the wins to come from those high-risk bets. True. so much better for you. throwing caution and judgment to the winds. risking money they can’t afford to lose. You need to build a system that will absorb the losses and prepare you for the times when the wins come your way. Losers generally feel shame. hoping to win back their losses. They lose and keep playing. -Refuse to play catch-up. Responsible players may be disappointed but understand the vagaries of the game and will monitor themselves. gets the most out of them and moves on. Winners play with money they can afford to invest.
As you already know. You have to assume the fact that you must be able to predict the outcome of a match. you lose even with the best of systems. it is very hard to implement at a functional level.We come to the end of the psychology section. it’s not so much about the system. if you are down on your bankroll. From the technical point of view. The problem is that they expect to win every single time that they bet and they can’t stand to lose money. Let me explain this. If that is easy to understand at a theoretical level . A system is a tool that makes you a net winner over a series of bets. With the proper discipline. Because of this. and the systems are available as well. That is the problem with most people. No doubts. it is harder to concentrate on the matches. Then. So. . Saying this. you make the probability works with you and not against you. you have now all the tools to be a winner at the sports betting. you can make money even with an average system while with lack of discipline. the information is available in large quantities. In other words. Most people don’t follow a system because they lack of the discipline to do it. with the help of a system. Also. it is very much about the discipline you put into it. they don’t think they need a system that will absorb all the losses and will produce a positive overall performance. What else could account the massive difference between those who win and the majority of the bettors who lose at sports betting? The information available is the same. you might ask yourself what is it that makes it so difficult to win when all the information is available? The reason why most people don’t win at sports betting is because they see the things differently than those who win. this is the most important part of the game. There is an equation of Psychology+System+Execution=Win. The proportion which you solve each part of the equation will account the level of success you will enjoy in the game. the sports betting is an easy eandeavor. you can’t rely only on intuition and hunches because you tend to distort information. They start with a system. there is no secret system that accounts the top performance of the few who make a living from sports betting or who win large sums of money. Even more. you have an edge that makes the probability to win more than the probability to lose. When you want to play in order to win at sports betting. but they don’t stick with it. with a system. All you have in mind is how to get back on terms.
until next time good luck at the game although you won’t need it. ☺ .Take this guide and read it until you understand all the parts and how they work together as a whole. Well. Winning at sports betting is not an exercise of luck. it is the right attitude translated into betting with the help of a positive expectancy system...
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