CDO training program

CONFIDENTIAL

- C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR - CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides - 30/03/2007 17:07:02

CDO Technology Overview

- C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR - CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides - 30/03/2007 17:07:02

CDOs

Concept is derived from securitisation Pool, tranches Pool with a very minimum of 10 to 20 assets Below 10 / 20 assets => Exotic Credit Derivatives area Usually the minimum is 50 (optimal number = 100 to 120 assets) Tranches = debt securities format Senior (super-senior = AAA tranche) Mezzanine (upper, lower) Equity (most junior debt) Also called « first loss » tranche

Less risk SENIOR MEZZ. EQTY.

More risk

CDO training program

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- C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR - CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides - 30/03/2007 17:07:02

CDOs (cont’d)
Senior: 80 Mezz : 15 Eqty : 5

Mecanism Let’s assume the following tranching…

Pool 100

… and 3 different senarios: If over the CDO life, the cumulative losses of the pool = 3
Senior tranche is not hit Mezz tranche is not hit

Increasing number of defaults

Equity tranche is hit by 3

Eqty tranche investors partially lose their investment

If over the CDO life, the cumulative losses of the pool = 10
Senior tranche is not hit Mezz tranche is hit by 5 Mezz tranche investors partially lose their investment EQTY tranche investors lose all their investment

Equity tranche is totally hit (by 5)

If over the CDO life, the cumulative losses of the pool = 25
Senior tranche is hit by 5 Senior tranche investors partially lose their investment Mezz tranche investors lose all their investment EQTY tranche investors lose all their investment
4

Mezz tranche is totally hit (by 15) Equity tranche is totally hit (by 5)

CDO training program

- C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR - CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides - 30/03/2007 17:07:02

Different Asset Classes

.C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .30/03/2007 17:07:02 Different Asset Classes Corporate risks High Grade High Yield Mix of both Asset Backed Securities (‘ABS’) 2 main caracteristics: Default rate < to those of corporate assets class Relatively higher stability of ratings (more resilient to economic downturns) SME Loans (small & medium companies) CDO tranches ( CDO-squared) CDO training program 6 .CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .

.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Different Structures .CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .

C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .30/03/2007 17:07:02 Different types of structures: 4 criteria Objective Balance Sheet vs Arbitrage CDO Balance sheet = credit portfolio management. reglementary issues. capital optimization.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides ..… Arbitrage = taking advantage of the difference between the average return on the reference portfolio and the payments made to the tranches investors (= excess spread) Transfer mode Cash vs Synthetic Cash = True sale of the underlying credit assets portfolio Synthetic = risk transfert via CDS Cash Flow CDO vs Market value CDO Cash flow = CDO revenues driven by those of the underlying credit assets portfolio + revenues allocation to investors according to note seniority (= cash flow waterfall) Market value (CDS based technology) = CDO performance linked to the variation of the underlying credit assets market value Static vs Managed CDO Static = Credit assets reference pool is defined at implementation and remain unchanged during all the life of the transaction Managed = Credit assets reference pool can fluctuate over time according to CDO manager trading decisions CDO training program 8 .

C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .30/03/2007 17:07:02 Flurry of innovations won’t be discussed CDO^2 CPPI (Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance) CPDO CDO with equity buckets Mix between debt and Eqty in order to enhance the CDO return profile L/S (Long / Short structure) Hedging vs market spreads variations Etc… CDO training program 9 ..CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .

C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .30/03/2007 17:07:02 Let’s focus on 3 cases Funded Loan Securitisation Partially Funded Synthetic CDO Single-tranche synthetic CDO CDO training program 10 ..CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .

.5% Notes First loss exposure The bank selects a pool of loans to be securitized Notes proceeds CDO training program 11 .C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .5% EURIBOR + 45bp Notes Investors = protection providers Senior exposure Reference pool Assets face value = 100% True sale Pool of credit assets Assets face value = 100% Mezzanine BB Face value = 20% EURIBOR + 90bp Notes Intermediary exposure Cash Borrower 4 Loan agreement (=Notes proceeds) Equity Face value = 13.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Cash CDO / Funded Loan Securitisation Bank = Transaction Sponsor / Manager Borrower 1 Borrower 2 Borrower 3 Loan agreement Loan agreement Loan agreement Management Agreement SPV Assets Liabilities Senior Debt AAA Face value = 66.

but in most cases.C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR . …) Rating based on Default statistics (historical data) Sponsor’s commitment = Equity retention Bank commits itself to keep the first losses unhedged in order to prove its good faith to investors vs any arbitrage temptation Many drawbacks (= heavy structure) but some advantages in terms of funding stability (vs synthetic CDO that are non-funded structures) Good for banks with weakening rating interest level (swap rate + spread) defined the day the structure is implemented and remains unchanged through the life of the deal (=usually 5 years) In terms of rating CDO training program 12 .30/03/2007 17:07:02 Funded Loan Securitisation (cont’d) Named Cash CLO (Collateralised Loan Obligation) True sale to an SPV for the full amount of the CLO The SPV can already exist. Fitch.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides . it is created for the sole purpose of the CDO SPV issues rated securities (with various tranches from AAA/Aaa to BB/Ba3 in general) that are all placed to Investors Securities rated by rating agencies (S&P.. Moody’s.

C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR . Pledge Collateral Portfolio tranching AAA: 3% A: 3% BBB: 3% EQTY : 1% SPV Subordinated CDS Premium Treasuries (0% BIS weighted) CLN : 9% EQTY: 1% Cash Intermediary exposure Funded part First loss exposure 1. Pledge collateral to investors: Neutralizes investors exposure towards Bank A credit risk Enables Bank A to issue AAA rated notes though itself rated AA (or below) CDO training program 13 .. Pledge Collateral Collateral (Treasuries) Notes proceeds Cash Market Eqty tranche can be kept by the bank in order to enhance the risk profile of the structure 1. Pledge collateral to Bank A: Neutralizes bank A exposure towards SPV Enables bank A to benefit from a 0% BIS weighted treatment 2.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Partially Funded Synthetic CDO Bank A AAA: 90% Reference potfolio of credit assets Super senior CDS Premium (20bppa) Bank B (20% BIS weighted) Non funded part 2.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .

C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR . Cap. credit assets for a total amount of 100MEUR RWA = 100MEUR Reg cap ≥ RWA * 8% = 8MEUR RWA & Capital after securitization of the pool Super senior tranche RWA = 90MEUR * 20% = 18MEUR Reg Cap = 18MEUR * 8% = 1.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Partially Funded Synthetic CDO (cont’d) Focus on reg.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides . Optimization (Basle I) RWA & Capital before securitization of the pool (H): Pool = fully drawn corp..44MEUR Mezz tranche RWA = 9MEUR * 0% = 0MEUR Reg Cap = 0MEUR * 8% = 0MEUR Eqty tranche Reg Cap = 1MEUR (1:1 ratio) New total RWA = 18MEUR Such synthetic CDO deal : Enables the bank to reduce its RWA from 100MEUR to 18MEUR Leaves Tier 1 component of Reg cap unchanged (pre and post securitization) Enables a huge benefit on the [Core Reg Cap / RWA] ratio that is dramatically increased Eqty tranche nominal deducted from Tier3 component on a 1:1 basis CDO training program 14 .

30/03/2007 17:07:02 Single tranche Synthetic CDO Bank A AAA: 90% Reference potfolio of credit assets Portfolio tranching AAA: 3% A: 3% A: 3% BBB: 3% EQTY : 1% Subordinated CDS Premium (45bppa) Protection provider Correlation desk Delta hedging Position dynamically managed vs « long & hold » strategy type CDS Market CDO training program 15 ..C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .

CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides . subordination. …) Structure that can be self managed or externally managed Bilateral instrument (= no distribution) Non publicly rated structure Correlation desks are the natural counterparties Correlation desk traders Delta-hedge their position in the CDS markets Tranche underlying names need to be liquid Pricing & rating of single tranches will now be examined in part 2 CDO training program 16 . The capital structure is not entirely distributed Single-tranche synthetic CDOs are also called « Bespoke tranches » Indeed.tranche size.C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .. rating. term. the investor can customize various caracteristics (= portfolio composition.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Single-tranche Synthetic CDO (cont’d) Only one tranche is created and sold to an investor.

30/03/2007 17:07:02 Base Case Loss distribution characteristics .C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides ..

we assume a level of correlation at 10% Correlation is supposed to be the same across the portfolio Pool total nominal = 20.71%.PD for all names (typically they are all Baa3) With the same 30% recovery rate for all names The key parameter discussed is correlation In our base case.000M CDO training program 18 .CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .. 0.5% each With the same 3-year bullet tenor for all the names With the same 1.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Base Case – CDORom use Let our base case be an homogeneous portfolio with 200 names with a nominal of 100M each Equally weighted.C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .

0% 10.5% 18..00% 18.5% 30.00% 4.5% 3.C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .00% 16.00% 0.0% 19.00% 10.5% 24.0% 16.0% 31.00% 6.0% 37.5% 15.5% 12.5% 36.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Base Case .0% 22.Portfolio Loss distribution graph Loss Distribution 20.00% 0.0% 1.0% Probabilities CDO training program 19 .0% 25.0% 7.00% 2.5% 21.00% 8.5% 27.00% % of portfolio loss 12.0% 34.00% 14.5% 6.0% 4.5% 9.5% 33.5% 39.0% 28.0% 13.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .

8% 0.00% 99.7% 0.91% 9.81% 8.00% 99.1% 0.786371333 0.96% 10.21% 0.90% 9.0% 0.86% 9.07% 2.00% 99.95% 10.77% 8.149101167 0.0% 0.9% 0.15% 1.784625667 0.840908167 0.9% 0.00% 99.5% 0.00% 99.01% 99.713940667 0.44% 0.147986833 0.14% 1.1% 12.93% 9.0% 0.8% 0.00% 99.00% 99.2% 0.147581667 0.01% 99.3% 0.489143333 0.97% 11.880650667 0.33% 2.82% 8.325696 0.00% 99.3% 0.98% 2.7128165 0.87903 0.331104167 0.82% 8.17% 2.89% 9.9% 2.8% 0.855773167 0.00% 99.4% 0.93% 10.77% 8.02% 99.16% 2.00% 99.7% 0.4% 17.0% 14.01% 99.40% 1.2% 0.96% 10.1% 0.78% 8.328024 0.64% 3.86% 8.05% 0.6% 0.9% 1.93% 9.787376333 0.00% 99.12% 1.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Base Case – Zoom on [0%-3%] and [8%-11%] tranches [0%-3%] Tranche Loss Rate Probabilities 0.7% 0.773310167 0.12% 1.8% 0.610565333 0.2% 0.7% 0.487974667 0.C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .148552667 0.9% 0.95% 10.2% 0.91% 9.01% 99.0% 0.907799833 0.00% 99.89% 9.13% 2.3% 0.7% 0.10% 0.5% 9.28% 2.00% 99.49% 2.00% 99.8% 5.00% 99.3% 0.909956167 [8%-11%] Tranche Loss Rate Probabilities Cum Prob 8.95% 10.00% 99.6% 2.6% 0.614605167 0.01% 99.94% 10.00% 99.1% 0.22% Cum Prob 0.96% 10.01% 99.839991667 0.5% 0.1% 0.96% 10..06% 0.84% 8.00% 99.88% 9.76% 0.3% 0.7% 0.11% 1.25% 1.1% 0.0% 0.23% 1.2% 0.5% 0.8% 15.01% 99.23% 0.617369167 0.5% 0.01% 99.02% 99.01% 99.709715833 0.94% 10.03% 99.2% 4.485512167 0.881380667 0.86% 8.6% 0.0% 0.10% 2.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .09% 2.04% 0.94% 1.837185167 0.97% ∑ Prob = 1 CDO training program 20 .4% 0.91% 9.01% 99.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.329017667 0.616134833 0.31% 1.6% 0.6% 0.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.66% 0.

00% 574 95.C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .98% 2.El & Ec.28% of the pool nominal (= 256. inferred from Distribution Capital Economique Cum.202 99. Cap.00% 1.861 99. Prob.359M / 20.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .30/03/2007 17:07:02 Base Case .8% equals 12% of the pool nominal (= 2. Cum.00% 781 99.00% 265 90.000M) Ec Cap = 9 times EL The capital buffer amount is very important CDO training program 21 .90% 1. which is consistent with a Baa3 pool Ec Cap 99.28% EL over a 3-year period roughly corresponds to a 42 bppa spread.359 EL 256 Expected Loss equals 256 million which represents 1.29M / 20.000M) An 1.. Loss 50. Port.

CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides ..30/03/2007 17:07:02 Main drivers of Cum Loss Distribution .C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .

the more fat tailed the cumloss distribution Key 3 factor = Tenor The higher the CDO maturity.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Portfolio Loss distribution What are the main drivers of the loss distribution? Key 1 factor = Default rate of each entity The higher the PD rate of the portfolio. Tranche Correlation Neutral Increase Increase CDO training program 23 . the more important the cumulative losses Impact level on the cumloss curve Key 2 factor = Correlation The higher the correlation. Tranche Spread Increase Increase Increase on Senior tranche Decrease on Eqty tranche Neutral on Mezz.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .. the more important the cumulative losses Other parameters of lesser impact Diversification (# of names) LGD Default Prob Tenor EL Increase Increase Impacts on Cum Loss Distribution Ec Cap Fat Tail Increase Increase Increase Increase Rating Deteriorate Deteriorate Increase on Senior tranche Decrease on Eqty tranche Neutral on Mezz.

C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides ..30/03/2007 17:07:02 Tenor impact on portfolio loss distribution .

2 12 EL (MEUR) 63 256 554 845 x1.035 6000 5000 Million 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 0 5 10 15 Tenor (year) EL EC99. Cap.98 (en MEUR) 991 2.98% 7000 Tenor (in year) 1 3 6 9 x2.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Tenor impact on EL & Ec Capital Expected Loss & Capital @ 99.C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .98 The longer the tenor.282 Ec. the bigger the EL and the Ec. In other words. Cap. the lower its rating CDO training program 25 .359 3.738 4. the longer the tranche maturity.762 6.2 1. 99.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides ..

.30/03/2007 17:07:02 DP Impact on portfolio loss distribution .C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .

5% loss Rate curve 1% 1. Cap.1.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Loss Rate (Default Probability) impact on EL & EC. In other words. you have higher probabilities to have big losses with low rated pool.. the bigger the EL and the Ec.C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR . Probability .1% loss rate curve .5% Portfolio losses in % of pool nominal The higher the DP. Cap.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides . CDO training program 27 .

30/03/2007 17:07:02 Correlation impact on portfolio loss distribution .CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides ..C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .

. probability of default (p) each. 2 etc is 100% Maximum correlation Bimodal distribution Either no loan default or all the loans of the pool default Probability of each situation 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 8 16 100% Correlation case Full Correl 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 Number of defaults amongst 100 96 CDO training program 29 . FALSE) And of course.30/03/2007 17:07:02 In theory two correlation extreme cases No correlation No link between the various default Binomial case 25% Probability of each situation 20% 15% Binomial 10% 5% 0% 0 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 Number of defaults amongst 100 96 Binomial calculation Sample with (n) elements.k) * p^k * (1-p) ^(n-k) With X being the number of defaults.71%. 1.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR . the sum of the probabilities for k= 0. 200. Proba of having (k) defaults is P(X=k) = C(n.n ] BINOMDIST(3. 1. and K Є [0.

the more fat tailed the distribution looks like.00% Probabilities 30. the more important the impact of the 100% correlation bimodal distribution ( situations) Greater probability to have no loss at all the curve moves to the left the curve moves to the right Higher probabilities for extreme Greater probability to have all the underlyings defaulting at the same time CDO training program 30 .C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .00% 10.00% 20..CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides . The higher the correlation.00% 15.00% 5.00% 25.00% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Correl = 10% Correl = 20% Correl = 30% The intermediate cases with correl 10% or correl 20% etc are a kind of blend between correl = 0% and correl 100% The higher the correlation.00% 0.30/03/2007 17:07:02 In real life Intermediate cases 40.00% 35.

.8% 3% Same mean 6% Portfolio losses in % of pool nominal The pricing of the tranche is proportional to the sub area Below the curve CDO training program 31 .78% CumProb = 8.C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .05% Probability -10% correlation -20% correlation 2.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .30/03/2007 17:07:02 Correlation @ 10% vs Correlation @ 20% CumProb = 88.19% CumProb = 3.29% CumProb = 90.59% CumProb = 8.12% CumProb = 1.

there is a 3.8%) Correlation impacts the standard deviation of the cumloss distribution Correlation increases the sub area of senior tranches ( Loss distribution attracted to the right) For the correlation @10%.100%] interval of pool size Naturally those expected losses will drive the tranche pricings The larger the area of the tranche below the curve.100%] interval of pool size For the correlation @20%. there is a 1.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Correlation @ 10% vs Correlation @ 20% (Cont’d) The two distributions have the same mean ( = 2.12% probability that cumulative losses over 3 year will fall in the [6% ..CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .05% probability that cumulative losses over 3 year will fall in the [6% . the higher the spread Correlation increases Senior tranche price Correlation decreases Eqty tranche price Correlation has a relatively neutral impact on Mezz tranche Note: such statement is no longer true for very high correlation levels (impact of the 100% correlation bimodal distribution) CDO training program 32 .

C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR ..30/03/2007 17:07:02 Pricing in theory: only one correlation .CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .

CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .100%] 36.100%] 40 Correlation @ 10% Correlation @ 20% x3 40 * Duration concept not taken into account Most sensitive tranche in terms of correlation In the base case. we assume an average CDS spread for the pool @40 bppa of pool nominal For a 10% correlation The [0%-3%] loss tranche having a cumulative probability of 90.43 0.31bppa of pool nominal (= 40bpba * 90.28 3.6%] [6% .4).78% (see p.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Conversion of CumLoss into bppa of pool nominal (Approximate calculations*) Mezz Senior Eqty [0% .25 Global Pool [0% .C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .41 1.32 3.31 35.78%) CDO training program 34 . the corresponding tranche pricing is 36.3%] [3% ..

CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .210 1.31bppa / 3%) Correlation @ 10% Correlation @ 20% Same type of calculations apply to mezzanine and senior tranches Mezzanine 3.6%] [6% .30/03/2007 17:07:02 Translation into tranche pricings (Approximate calculations*) Eqty Mezz Senior [0% .44 1.42bppa /94%) Key point : pricing of upper tranches are quiete close to 0 bppa CDO training program 35 .C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .33 For 10% correlation.19% * 40 bppa) 109bppa of tranche nominal (=3.42bppa of pool nominal (= 1.44bppa of tranche nominal (=0.28bppa of pool nominal (= 8.100%] 1. the corresponding tranche pricing is 1210 bppa of tranche nominal (= 36.3%] [3% .177 109 115 0. equity tranche The [0%-3%] cumloss tranche size being 3% of pool nominal..05% * 40 bppa) 0.28bppa /3%) * Duration concept not taken into account Return carried by the Eqty tranche = 12% of the pool nominal Senior tranche 0.

.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .30/03/2007 17:07:02 Pricing in real life: not only one correlation! .

30/03/2007 17:07:02 Compound correlation model limits Theory single correlation model Real life various correlation levels Step 1 : tranche pricing calculated from a unique correl Correl Pricing bppa Tranche [0% .CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .9%] [9% .12%] [12% .22%] 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 1 610 140 10 0.C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR ..6 0.3%] [3% .6%] [6% .02 Step 2: Correls calculated by the market Market Spread Correl Deducted 1 046 86 33 12 6 20% 6% 30% 40% 50% Pricing not so close to 0 Step 1: Determination of the spread of each tranch of a portfolio using the historical unique correlation @ 6% (used by rating agencies) via the « Normal Copula Model » Step 2: Calculation of correlations using market spread Market spread are not deducted from one level of correlation but various levels of correlation according to tranche attachment and detachment points CDO training program 37 .

C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides . you find spread levels extremely low (near to zero bp) Whereas the market quotes hardly fall below 1 or more bppa Who would sell protection at 0. the higher the level of correlation induced by the market CDO training program 38 ..1 bppa? The law of supply and demand leads to higher market spreads.and hence higher correlation levels Such a market practice explains the correlation smile (same as for the options markets) The more senior the tranche.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Real market pricings are not so close to zero! Determining tranche pricings through a CumLoss approach with a unique correlation figure is indeed possible around the equity zone But when applying the same approach to upper mezz and senior tranches.

C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR . only one correlation will apply to the whole portfolio … market quotations cannot be derived from a model with only 1 correlation Correlation varies according to the tranch seniority Market needs to ensure liquidity for upper tranches The smile reflects the fact that market does not believe in a single correlation model Europe [0% .8% 30.9% Smile de corrélation CDO training program 39 .9%] [9% .100%] Bid/Ask 28. when a default occurs.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Correlation Smile: Theory vs market prices Though only one correlation figure should prevail for the entire portfolio & tranche pattern… Indeed.22%] [3% .3% 18.12%] [12% .5 Mid-market implied correlation 19..3%] [3% .CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .8% 24.25/33.6%] [6% .25 + 500 235/275 95/115 50/65 18/26 13.9% 7.4% 20.5/17.

30/03/2007 17:07:02 Bootstrapping method Base correlation related to x% is the correlation of the [0.. Spread [0% .6%] tranche spread known from mkt Given that [3% .3%]) = compound Correlation [3% .6%] tranche pricing depends on BaseCorrel (3%) and BaseCorrel (6%). Bootstrapping is a calculation method that derives the BaseCorrel of a senior tranche from a more junior tranche CDO training program 40 .C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .6%]) 6%.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .6%] BaseCorrrel (6%) then calculated f-1(Spread [0% . x%] equity tranche on a standardised portfolio Recursive calculation of the base correlation curve [0%-3%] tranche spread known from mkt BaseCorrrel (3%) then calculated f-1(Spread [0% .9% tranche spread known from mkt BaseCorrrel (9%) then calculated etc.6%] = Spread [0% .3%] + Spread [3% .

. the skew is the slope of the BaseCorrel curve with a proportionality factor in the definition) A steepening of the skew conveys a spread increase of the upper tranches Smile Effect The skew level is ruled by the law of supply and demand Smile effect CDO training program 41 .30/03/2007 17:07:02 Base Correlation curve after bootstrapping calc Skew measures the steepness of the BaseCorrel curve In other words.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .

25%] 228bppa [15% .C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides ..30/03/2007 17:07:02 Mezzanine tranche pricing is sensitive to skew Base Correlation Skew 90% Parallel shift in the correlation Correlation 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% level does not impact Mezz tranche spread level… (H): Portfolio spread = 54bppa [15% .26%] 211bppa Detachem ent Level Initial Correlation Parallel Shift [16% .25%] 248bppa [16% .26%] 231bppa Base Correlation Skew 90% 80% 70% Correlation 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% … whereas skew changes Mezz tranche spread level 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Detachem ent Level Initial Correlation Skew Mouvement CDO training program 42 .

30/03/2007 17:07:02 Mezzanine tranche pricing is sensitive to skew (Cont’d) Impact of changing correlation @ attachment point All things being equal. the lesser the tranche spread The slope of the base correlation curve increases It’s the slope of the base correlation curve that affects tranche pricing Note: A parallel shift of the base correlation curve only impacts the spread levels of Eqty and Senior tranches Neutral impact on Mezz.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides . the bigger the tranche spread The slope of the base correlation curve decreases Impact of changing correlation @ detachment point All things being equal . tranche CDO training program 43 . the higher the correlation at attachment point. the higher the correlation at detachment point.C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR ..

30/03/2007 17:07:02 Mark-to-Market .CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR ..

000.000.000.6%] Nominal Tranche 3 billion Nominal pool 100 billion CDO Tranche (Unfunded transaction) Amount Tranche Value Market Spread Bp Value 641.62% -1.56% 4.263.83 CDS Portfolio Amount Number of Names Outstanding Portfolio Notional Portfolio Expected Loss % of Outstanding Portfolio 125 100.17% 0.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Base case Closing Pool @ 25 bppa Tenor 5 year 14 days Correlation_Attach 15% Correlation_Detach 23.02% 0.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .376 CDO training program 45 .720.615..919 % of Invested Notional -1.6%] Nominal Tranche 3 billion Nominal pool 100 billion After 1 year Pool @ 40 bppa Tenor 4 year 14 days Corelation _Attach 12% Correlation_Detach 22% Tranche [3% .87% 3.26% CDS Portfolio Amount Number of Names Outstanding Portfolio Notional Portfolio Expected Loss % of Outstanding Portfolio 125 100.753 % of Invested Notional 0.000.71 CDO Tranche (Unfunded transaction) Amount Tranche Value Market Spread Bp Value -35.8% Tranche [3% .837.225.C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .000 -1.256 -1.000 -1.

C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .7% * 100 billion = 6.7% of the portfolio global cost of carry Cost of carry of the tranche related to pool nominal = 56 bppa * 3% = 1. Portfolio spread = 25 bppa ( Tranche spread = 56 bppa ( CDS cost of the whole pool) CDS cost for the tranche) Thus.40% .7% of the portfolio in terms of MtM Delta-hedging (by a correlation desk) will thus be done on a nominal of 6.0.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Explanation of MtM in order of magnitude At Closing.7%. the higher its relative cost of carry.68bppa / 25 bppa = 6.7 year] * 100 billion Tranche converted into pool Duration Variation in Underlying’s spread Pool nominal MtM (for the investor) = .25%] * [3.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .37 million Calculation looks like the MtM of a Bond CDO training program 46 .6.7 billion MtM (for the investor) = . the delta of the tranche is 6. my tranche represents 6..7% It can be noted that the lower the tranche seniority. and thus the more important its Delta In other words.7% * [0.68bppa This cost related to the global cost of carry of the pool = 1. It means that the tranche behaves like 6.

.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .30/03/2007 17:07:02 Greeks or portfolio sensitivity to risk factor shifts .C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .

CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .30/03/2007 17:07:02 Greeks or portfolio sensitivity to risk factor shifts Delta .C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR ..

30/03/2007 17:07:02 Delta: Volumetry Bank A Reference potfolio of credit Assets 1 GEUR Portfolio tranching [9% .9%]: 30MEUR [3% -.6%] :: 30MEUR [3% 6%] 30MEUR [0% . the correlation desk must realise its delta hedge on a nominal equal to almost 6 times the tranche notional 5.100%] 910MEUR [6% .CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .7 * 30MEUR = 171MEUR or 17.3%]: 30MEUR Subordinated CDS Premium Protection provider Correlation desk Delta hedging (H): Delta = 5.C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .7 * tranche notional CDS Market In this example..1% of the pool nominal CDO training program 49 .

/ CDS on the specific underlying spread var.) * Tranche notional Tranche Delta depends on: Attachment point (= subordination) Tranche thickness Pool spread Time to maturity Default correlation CDO training program 50 .30/03/2007 17:07:02 Delta: generals Tranche Delta is used: By investors (correl desk) to hedge their exposure to movements in the CDS spread of the underlying credits Delta = definition of the CDS underlying nominal that needs to be sold / bought to hedge a short/long synthetic CDO tranche position By CDO sponsors to manage the transactions Delta = indication of the cost of substituting underlying credits. Delta = (Tranche spread var.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides ..C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR . Delta main features Tranche delta range from 0% to 100% of pool nominal Tranche delta are usually quoted in terms of notional amount needed to hedge the tranche against spread movements of the particular underlyings.

8% 12..54% 17.33 6.00% 20. spread Delta in % Base Correl @ 26 bppa of pool AP / DP 668.00% Delta 40.04 30.00% [0% .07 51.00% Tranche size Tranche [0% .00% 30.3%] [3% -6% ] [6% .3%] 3% [3% -6%] 3% [6% .18 Tranche spread with portf.7% / 36.9%] 3% 3% [9% . the higher its delta Tranches that are lower in the capital structure are more risky as there is less protection against default risk CDO training program 51 .00% 50.12%] Tranche spread with portf.9% 2. spread @ 25 bppa 648.00% 0.33 23.9% ] [9% .80 15% / 15% 62.12% ] Tr anche Delta in % of pool The more junior the tranche.7% 3.00% 7.8% / 30.58% 60.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Delta: Tranche attachment point impact 70.28 16.00% 10.19% 55.46 15% / 23.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .

00% 15% / 30.6%] [3% .62 41.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Delta: Tranche detachment impact Tranche [3% .55% 33.4 6% 15.54% 43.00% 16.9% ] Tr anche Delta in % of pool The larger the tranche.7% 2. a wider tranche is exposed to a larger band of losses. the higher delta For a fixed level of subordination (here = 3%).98 47.6% ] [3% .28 55.92% 38.00% 15% / 26.1% 6.7%] [3% .73 5% 15.00% 0.00% Base Correl 12.00% 15% / 28. spread Delta in % @ 26 bppa of pool @ 25 bppa size 51.C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .4% 4.8%] [3% .46 3% 12.8% 8.00% Delta [3% .00% 14.00% 15% / 23.00% AP / DP 10.7%] [3% .8%] [3% .60% 18.9%] Tranche spread Tranche spread Tranche with portf. and is therefore more risky Note that the increase in tranche delta flattens out once the limit of possible losses is reached CDO training program 52 .8 36. spread with portf..CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .46 4% 13.

. the greater the delta of the Eqty tranche the lower the delta of the senior tranche Time to maturity: As the time to maturity tends to 0.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Delta: other factors impacts Pool spread: Tranche deltas are linked to the risk profile of the pool. The riskier the pool.C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .the risk is shifted to the senior tranche (= higher probability of joint default). the delta of the Eqty tranche decreases and the delta of the senior tranche increases CDO training program 53 . defaults becomes less likely to occur. and the deltas of all other tranches converge to 0% : Default correlation As correlation level increases.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides . the delta of the Eqty tranche converges to 100% of the pool nominal.

30/03/2007 17:07:02 Greeks or portfolio sensitivity to risk factor shifts Time to maturity .C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides ..

6%] mezzanine tranche Tranche spread decreases)… … up until a certain point of time when MtM increases again until reaching 0 at maturity (« time decay » impact on tranche MtM superior to « spread reduction » impact) CDO training program 55 .40% -0.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Variation of MtM with the time to maturity -0..20% -0.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .37% -0.[Tranche spread variation * Duration * tranche nominal] Tranche less risky As time to maturity decreases.10% -0.02% -0.50% 0 1 2 3 4 5 Source: SG CDO Pricer tool -0.C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .60% -0.6%] tranche We make strong assumptions: Portfolio spread (= 25bppa) remains unchanged all along the life of the CDO Correlation curve remains unchanged (Attachment point = 15% / Detachment point = 23. the MtM deteriorates (there is less time for defaults to hit the [3% . let’s simplify the MtM formula by ignoring the Delta impact (negligible since moving into a relatively narrow corridor) MtM (for the investor) = .02% MtM Point of time Issuance + 1Year + 2Years + 3Years + 4 Years + 5 Years (Residual maturity = 14 days) GCPM MtM in % of tranche nominal -0.80% All parameters being equal… We look at the [3% .8%) To explain the curve shape.00% -0.70% -0.70% -0.30% -0.54% Ye ar s 0.70% -0.

C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR ..CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .30/03/2007 17:07:02 Greeks or portfolio sensitivity to risk factor shifts Spread parallel move test .

CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .58 4.3%] Portfolio spread (bppa) 25 50 x2 75 100 125 Portfolio spread (bppa) 25 50 x2 75 100 125 Tranche spread (bppa) 872 1.3%] tranche and the [3% .500 3.8% for the tranche [3% .3%] spread (bppa) [3% .18 3.18 2.556 3.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Spread parallel move test [0%.3%] tranche spread moves from 872 bppa (core) to 1727 bppa [3% .727 x2 2.84 3.500 4..6%] spread (bppa) All parameters being equal… We look at the [0% .000 3.6%] 4.372 4.2/1 is the leverage of that tranche The ratio 6.000 1.000 500 0 25 45 65 85 105 125 145 Portfolio spread (bppa) [0% .97 [3% .3 2 Duration (year) 4.71 4.500 1.68 2.000 2.C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .6%] We move the portfolio spread from 25bppa to 50 bppa [0% .500 2.4 4.179 Tranche spread (bppa) 56 216 x4 436 686 942 Duration (year) 3.4/1 is the leverage of that tranche Eqty tranche is the most sensitive to portfolio (and single-name) wide spread moves Note that « tranche spread vs pool spread » curve is sligthly convex Tranche spread (bppa) CDO training program 57 .6%] tranche Maturity = 5 years We make strong assumptions: Correlation curve remains unchanged: 15% /15% for the tranche [0%-3%] and 15% / 23.6%] tranche spread moves from 56 bppa (core) to 216 bppa The ratio 34.

C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR ..30/03/2007 17:07:02 Greeks or portfolio sensitivity to risk factor shifts Duration .CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .

6%] Duration [3% .727 2.6%] Duration can be defined as a kind of discounted average life time The riskier (= more junior) the tranche The higher the portfolio spread the higher the number of default the smaller the duration the higher the number of default the smaller the duration Note that American priced tranche will always have a smaller duration than European priced tranche CDO training program 59 .58 4.30/03/2007 17:07:02 Duration [0%.3%] Duration [3% .372 4.97 5 4.68 2.556 3.84 3.3 2 Duration (year) 4.5 0 50 100 150 Portfolio spread (bppa) [0% .3%] tranche and the [3% .71 4.179 Tranche spread (bppa) 56 216 436 686 942 Duration (year) 3.C:\USERS\Stephane DELAINE\STR .4 4.5 4 3.6%] tranche Maturity = 5 years We make strong assumptions: Correlation curve remains unchanged: 15% /15% for the tranche [0%-3%] and 15% / 23.5 3 2.18 2.8% for the tranche [3% .5 2 1.3%] Duration (years) Portfolio spread (bppa) 25 50 75 100 125 Portfolio spread (bppa) 25 50 75 100 125 Tranche spread (bppa) 872 1.CDO CWA & investissement\presenations\post asian seminar slides .6%] All parameters being equal… We look at the [0% ..18 3.

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