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This revision booklet is for EDEXCEL AS GEOGRAPHY students studying UNIT 1 – GLOBAL CHALLENGES (6GE01). Please note that this revision booklet only covers TOPIC 1: WORLD AT RISK and NOT TOPIC 2: GOING GLOBAL. The following revision booklet is the material I used to prepare for this exam in January 2010. However, please note that this should only be used to accompany your notes, and not to replace them. This is because this revision booklet does not contain the homework I was set during the course of studying this Unit, and as mentioned previously, only contains notes on Topic 1 – World at risk, which covers Global Hazards and Climate Change, as well as The challenge of global hazards for the future. This unit is worth 60% of your AS result and 30% of your A2 result, and is therefore 1 out of the 2 modules of the whole A level accounting for the majority of marks. May I wish you the best of luck with your exams and I hope this has been helpful along the course of your studies.
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SECTION 1 – GLOBAL HAZARDS
Hazards Hazards affect and disrupt our lives High hazard – Death Medium Hazard: ○ Buildings destroyed ○ Disease from dirty water ○ Destruction of transport/communication links • LEDC’s have more physical loses, e.g. Deaths • MEDC’s have more economic loses, e.g. Collapsed buildings • People in LEDC’s are much more vulnerable as they place themselves in high risk areas Kiribati Tebua in Kiribati was inundated due to rising sea levels Rest of Kiribati is suffering from rising sea levels and erosion People are leaving and becoming environmental refugees There are 3 key reasons why Tebua disappeared: ○ Global warming has led to rising sea levels due to ice caps melting ○ Volume of water has increased due to thermal expansion ○ Tebua was very vulnerable because it was very flat and low-lying • Kiribati also faces other risks, such as: ○ Erosion ○ Tsunamis ○ Tropical storms • It is an area of multiple hazards • The disappearance of Tebua is a clear sign that global warming is happening • Since 1920, southwest Pacific sea levels have warmed by 1oC compared to the world as a whole which has only warmed by 0.6oC. • The worst effects of global warming are felt by the poorest countries, which make the least contribution to the problem are lease equipped to deal with it Key Definitions Global warming – When the Earth’s climate warms because of Greenhouse Gases in the atmosphere • Environmental Refugees – People forced to migrate as a result of changes to the environment • Greenhouse Gases – Gases which retain heat within the Earth’s atmosphere and contribute to global warming, e.g. CO2, N2O and CH4 Multiple Hazards – Where a region suffers from a number of different natural or man-made hazards which make life difficult for people living there
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• • • •
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Difference between hazards and disasters A hazard is a natural event which has the potential to threaten both life and property and disrupt everyday life (e.g. Earthquake) • Some hazards also have human causes (e.g. Wildfires) • A disaster is the realisation and actual impacts of a hazard (e.g. the resulting deaths, injuries, destruction and disruption) • Disasters are becoming increasingly frequent as the vulnerability of people increases and their ability to cope decreases • The basic difference is that a hazard is a threat and a disaster is the outcome of that threat. • Not all hazards lead to disasters (e.g. when they occur in unpopulated areas or are of a small scale nature) When does a hazard become a disaster? The EM-DAT international database suggests a hazard becomes a disaster when one of the following criteria are met: • 10+ people are killed • 100+ people are affected • A state of emergency is declared • International assistance is called for The above figures will fluctuate depending on the country due to population densities, corrupt governments, money factors etc. How a hazard becomes a disaster? Vulnerability is the main reason why a hazard becomes a disaster • Underlying causes of vulnerability: ○ Poverty (limited access to power, infrastructure and resources) ○ Failing political, social and economic systems Pressures – local scale: ○ Lack of education ○ Lack of training ○ Lack of food security Macro scale: ○ Rapid population change ○ Rapid urbanisation ○ Debt repayment issues ○ Over-exploitation of resources/deforestation Unsafe conditions of populations – physical: ○ Dangerous locations ○ Unprotected buildings Unsafe conditions of population – Socioeconomic: ○ Weak local economy = poverty •
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○ Lack of disaster preparedness ○ Hunger and disease Risks from global hazards (listed in order of decreasing severity) Hazards to people: ○ Death and severe injury ○ Disease, stress • Hazards to goods ○ Economic losses ○ Infrastructure damage ○ Property damage • Hazards to the environment ○ Pollution ○ Loss of flora and fauna ○ Loss of amenity Why people remain exposed to hazard risk Changing Risks Difficult to predict when, where and the magnitude of the hazard Rise in sea levels means that low lying coastal plains that were once safe places to live are now more prone to storm surge and flood • Human activity like deforestation increases flooding events Lack of Alternatives World’s poorest and vulnerable people are forced to live in unsafe locations such as hillsides, floodplains or regions subject to drought • E.g. slums on hillsides in Rio De Janeiro Benefits VS Costs People will weigh up the benefits vs. costs of living in high-risk areas For example, the benefits of fertile farming land on the flanks of a volcano may outweigh the risk from eruptions Risk Perception People tend to be optimistic about the risk of hazards occurring Comforted by statistics which show the risk of death from hazards is far lower than car accidents • They believe if a high magnitude event has a occurred, they will be okay for the next few years (this is not true) Nature of Hazards Key Definitions
Hazard – A perceived natural event which has the potential to threaten both life and property
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For example. For example. Volcanoes. such as a flood or volcanic eruption • Natural technological disasters – where natural hazards trigger environmental disaster (e. El Nino • Geophysical Hazard – A hazard formed by tectonic/geological processes (Earthquakes. sometimes international aid • Humans are exposed to hazards because people live in hazardous areas through perceived economic advantage or over-confidence about safety. a sea level rise increases the risk of coastal floods and erosion. and increase peoples vulnerability Key Terms • • • • • • • • • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . E. an avalanche is formed from snow and ice (atmospheric conditions). nuclear power plant exploding Chronic hazards such as global warming and the El Nino – La Nina cycle may increase the threat from environmental hazards. particular of death.g. flooding causing a dam to burst) • Technological accidents – such as Chernobyl. yet the mass movement is a geomorphological process. e. Environmental hazards Key features of environmental hazards: Short warning time Rapid onset Difficult to predict Most direct loses occur within days or weeks of the event Resulting disaster justifies an emergency response.g. Tsunamis) • Hydro-Meteorological Hazard – A hazard formed by hydrological (floods) and atmospheric (storms and droughts) processes • Other hazards – Avalanches can be placed in either group. Global warming. Burma not allowing international aid initially after the 2008 cyclone • Poverty • The above amplify the risks.5| Page Context Hazard – widespread (global) threat due to environmental factors such as climate change. Social & Economic factors increasing people’s vulnerability to hazards Overpopulation / High population density makes the problem worse Corruption/inefficiency in government – e.g. • Vulnerability – A high risk combined with an inability of individuals and communities to cope Environmental hazards are specific events like earthquakes or floods. California.g. usually classified into: Natural processes – where the hazard results from an extreme geophysical or hydro-meteorological event.
forming clouds and precipitation along warm and cold fronts • Depressions rotate around a low pressure centre • As they develop.6| Page Disaster – A hazard becoming reality in an event that causes deaths and damage to foods/property and the environment • Risk – The probability of a hazard event occurring and creating loss of lives and livelihoods. possibly heavy precipitation • Heavy showers with hail • Strong winds • Lightning • • Occluded Cold Fronts Description • • • • A 'front' describes the area of transition between two different masses of air. In a weather system. to intense category 5. A warm front is formed if warm air is approaching colder air. if warm air is totally forced off the ground by cooler air. Droughts • • Lack or shortage of water for an unusually long period of time Takes many months or even years to develop • • • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . Depressions Cyclonic storms • Form when cool polar maritime (Pm) and warm tropical maritime (Tm) air meet at the polar front • Less dense Tm air rises. A cold front is formed if cold air is approaching and replacing warmer air. strong winds and heavy rain intensify • Gale force winds can cause property damage and floods may occur Impacts of a depression Front Warm Associated weather elements • Low cloud • Poor visibility • Continuous light to moderate precipitation • Strong winds • Prolonged. this is known as an occluded front. as well a weak upper level winds to allow the storm to develop its characteristic spiral • Hurricanes form 500km North and South of the equator where the coriolis effect is strong enough to generate spin • Hurricane Strength is measured using the Saffir-Simpson scale ranging from weak category 1. Hurricanes Intense storms in the subtropics Begin as tropical depressions Need sea surface temperatures of 27°C+ to generate convection.
g. Developing world • Eventually. leads to more widespread flooding.000 houses across Sudan.g. famine sets in as food supply runs out • This often leads to large scale migration • Droughts in Somalia often cause both famine and conflict Floods Flooding occurs when the capacity of a river channel is exceeded by the water discharge • Persistent rain. e. dry winds such as the Santa Ana winds of California combined with drought conditions can create “fire weather” • Wildfires become extreme when the canopy of trees catches fire • Trying to extinguish forest fires can actually raise risk • Unburned leaves. e. Tornados • • • • • • • • • Fire • • • Tornados are small-scale. over a period of days or weeks. often started by lightning Common during heat waves and droughts when vegetation is really dry Strong. twigs and branches build up over time to create a vast fuel source making fires more powerful Volcanoes • • Occur when magma is forced to the surface through cracks and fissures in the Earth’s crust The degree of Volcanic hazard is measured using the VEI (Volcanic explosivity Index) scale ranging from 0-8 CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . ripping narrow paths of complete distruction Wildfires are a natural phenomenon. • Widespread flooding tends to cause property damage as houses and fields remain underwater for long periods of times (e. Tewkesbury in the 2007 floods) • Flooding has complex causes. often partly human. deforestation and poor river management • Flash floods often occur due to intense precipitation over a small area. short lived storms They remain in one place for only a few seconds Begin as large thunderstorms (supercells) where warm and cold air meet Rapidly convecting warm air produces towering clouds which are twisted by strong upper level jet streamed winds Winds can reach up to 350km h-1 while the tornado itself moves at an average of about 60km h-1 Tornado wind speed is measured using the fujita scale They can be locally devastating.7| Page Droughts hit hardest in areas which rely directly on agriculture.g. • 11th July 2007: Flash floods killed 20 people and destroyed more than 15.
Explosivity depends on magma viscosity The more viscous the magma, the more hazardous the volcano Viscosity depends on gas, temperature and silica content Highly explosive volcanoes erupt low temperature, vicious lava with high silica content Earthquakes • • • • • Most commonly occur when 2 tectonic plates move suddenly against each other Rocks fracture underground at the Earthquake focus Earth’s crust shakes as energy is released Waves spread from the epicentre (point of Earth’s surface directly above the focus) Earthquakes are measured using: ○ Richter Magniture scale ○ Mercalli Intensity scale Severe earthquake damage can occur when unconsolidated sediment undergoes a process called liquefaction This is responsible for the worst ground shaking and damage
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Tsunamis Waves caused by the rapid displacement of water Submarine earthquakes are the most common cause • Tsunami waves travel at speeds of up to 700 km h-1 across the open ocean • Wavelengths are hundreds of km • Height is about 1m • Cannot be seen out at sea • Once they approach the shore, the waves slow down and increase in height Landslides • Downslope movements of rock and soil under the influence of gravity • Most hazardous landslides involve water • Heavy rain is often one of the key causes of landslides • Earthquakes can also trigger landslides • Rapid liquid flows are the most devastating • Humans can also play a part in landslides, e.g. Deforestation Avalanches • • • Type of mass movement involving snow, ice and other debris Occur on mountains with slopes of about 30-45° Occur within snowpack’s, which contain both weak and strong layers of snow • •
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The following can cause avalanches: ○ Changing wind conditions ○ Changing temperatures ○ Further snow falls ○ Skiing ○ Earth tremors Speeds can be of up to 300 km h-1 as the slab breaks up and rushes downslope Most avalanche fatalities result from burial
Comparing Vulnerability Location & Date of Earthquake Magnitude Deaths Injuries Property Damage Bam, Iran – December 2003 6.6 25,000 30,000 $10 billion economic Loss 18,000 buildings destroyed • • • • • Hawaii, USA – October 2006 6.7 0 Several hundred minor $73 million in damage 1,200 buildings damaged
Despite the magnitude of the Hawaiian earthquake being stronger, the impact was minute compared to the impact on Bam 90% of the buildings in Bam were constructed of mud with no structural frame In Hawaii, most buildings could resist the ground shaking with only minor damage In Bam, many emergency service vehicles and buildings were damaged by the earthquake Average incomes in Hawaii are $30,000 per annum compared to $3,900 in Iran
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Destruction in Bam, one of Iran’s poorest, isolated regions. Measuring Risk Risk Equation • The Risk equation measures the level of hazard for an area:
Risk = Frequency or magnitude of hazard x level of vulnerability Capacity of population to cope Frequency or magnitude of hazard increasing Use of fossil fuels is warming the planet Resulting change in climate is increasing the frequency and severity of weather related hazards (e.g. Floods, droughts, windstorms) Level of vulnerability increasing Hazards become disasters only when people get in the way Unsustainable development on poor land (e.g. building on floodplains) increases the vulnerability • Destruction of coastal mangroves decreases coastal protection Capacity to cope decreasing • Poor and vulnerable communities lack the skills, tools and money to cope with the effects of climate change • • • •
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Debt repayments and selective foreign investment mean that poorer countries can’t invest money in the skills and tools to cope with the effects of climate change, thus decreasing their capacity to cope The Future • The most affected areas will be the poorer countries and communities: ○ Sub-Saharan Africa ○ Parts of Southeast Asia ○ Many of the small developing islands This shows how the development gap is widening, with the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.
Global warming: Our greatest hazard? Key terms
• • •
Albedo – How much solar radiation a surface reflects Climate change – any long term trend or shift in climate (average weather over 30 years) detected by a sustained shift in the average value for any climatic element (e.g. Rainfall) Global warming – A recently measured rise in the average surface temperature of the planet Greenhouse effect – The warming of the Earth’s atmosphere due to the trapping of heat that would otherwise be radiated back into space. It enables the survival of life on earth. Enhanced greenhouse effect – Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase owing to human activity Fossil fuels – Energy sources that are rich in carbon which release carbon dioxide when burnt Tipping point – The point at which a system switches from one state to another
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the Earth would be up to 30°C cooler • In early 19th century. concentrations of CO2 and GHG’s stood at 280ppm (parts per million) • In 2007. which will be the global tipping points for dangerous climate change Why Global warming is important • Global problem affecting all areas of the world • • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . an enhanced greenhouse effect is now occurring • A concentration of over 450ppm is expected to lead to a rise of 2°C in the Earth’s temperature. which is warmed • This sustains life on earth by raising temperatures to a global average of 15°C • Without the greenhouse effect. nitrous oxide and ozone) absorb outgoing long-wave radiation from the Earth and send some of it back to the Earth’s surface. Carbon Dioxide. the concentrations of CO2 and other GHG’s stands at 430ppm as a result of human activities • Because of these increased levels.12 | P a g e Greenhouse Effect Natural phenomenon Process by which GHG’s (Water vapour [biggest contributor]. CFC’s. methane.
this will raise the temperature further and make the remaining ice melt quicker Socio-Economic impacts of a 2°C global temperature change Global Warming: a context hazard • • Global warming is a chronic hazard because it is continually present Global warming is potentially a global hazard because its impacts could be very widespread ○ E. Causing whole climate zones to shift Global warming could cause increases in the frequency and magnitude of hydro-meteorological hazards CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © • . e.13 | P a g e • • • • • Chronic hazard with an enormous range of direct impact Changes in climate: ○ Affects Ecology ○ Affects Wildlife ○ Could lead to the spread into new areas of disease. more heat from the sun will be absorbed ○ In turn.g. oceans become diluted by fresh water ○ This impacts on ocean circulation ○ Ice also has a high albedo and as it melts. Malaria Rising ocean temperatures may cause an increasing frequency and magnitude of hurricanes which in turn destruct coral reefs Thermal expansion leads to sea level rise Earth consists of a number of interlocking systems: ○ As glaciers and ice sheets melt.g.
E America These could become more frequent. North England • Vulnerability • • • • Developing countries and regions are more vulnerable than developed ones Capacity to cope is generally lower in the developing world. reducing predictive ability.g. which is by its very nature. communication systems Government disaster-assistance programmes Insurance Community initiatives Scientific understanding Decreasing Vulnerability Warning and emergency-response systems • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . e. poor social conditions.14 | P a g e It could also increase vulnerability to tectonic hazards by reducing food supply and water availability • As a global problem. e. e. and more intense over areas such as the UK. and possibly more frequent. Portugal. Gloucestershire. e. Alps These may become more intense.g. water. S. poor populations Increasing Vulnerability Population growth Urbanisation and Urban Sprawl Economic wealth Environmental Degradation Loss of community memory about hazard Ageing population Ageing infrastructure Greater reliance on power. it requires a global solution.g. environmental degradation and unfavourable physical geography all increase vulnerability Impacts on LEDCs last longer because of: ○ Corrupt governments delaying aid (e. so hazard impact lasts longer than in the developed world Poverty.g. Australia Mountain areas could experience more variable weather patterns. e.g. Burma – Cyclone Nargis 2008) ○ Poor communication links easily destroyed ○ Lack of healthcare LEDCs are more vulnerable because of: ○ Lack of evacuation plans ○ Dense. Sheffield Already vulnerable areas such as the Sahel could experience increased drought. complex Possible impacts of global warming on hydro-meteorological hazards Floods Drought Avalanches Hurricanes Depressions Changing rainfall patterns could increase risk in some areas – floods may become more common. New areas could become affected.g.
V = Vulnerability. increases as hazardous events become more common. spring-loaded foundations and counterweights on top Education and public awareness via earthquake drills and through the media Sea walls/Coastal defences can reduce impact from floods Aforestation – Planting of trees near drainage basins to intercept water SECTION 2 – GLOBAL HAZARD TRENDS Hazard Trends (1) CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . H = Frequency or magnitude of hazard. C = Capacity to cope Risk can be reduced by implementing some of the following strategies: • • • • ‘Quake proof buildings’ – Shock absorbers.15 | P a g e Hazard engineering Over-reliance on technological fix Risk • Risk. as shown in the disaster risk equation. people become more vulnerable and their capacity to cope decreases Risk can be reduced by reducing vulnerability. increasing capacity or reducing hazard frequency and/or magnitude • HxV R= C R = Risk.
1900 – 2005 • • • • • • Number of reported disasters has risen significantly in recent years Part of this rise is likely to be due to more accurate recording and better communications with isolated regions. which is when satellite remote sensing and global communications began. and are vulnerable due to low coping capacity Hazard Trends (2) Number of natural disasters by type. This may indicate an increase in the vulnerable population and a rise in the number of hazardous events. Population growth means more people living in potentially hazardous locations This means there are a greater number at risk Many people at risk live in the developing world. There are likely to have been more people in earthquake-prone areas in 2000 than in 1980. Floods and Windstorms • • • There is a clearer upward trend for floods and wind storms. It could be the result of global climate change and/or other environmental changes. There is no evidence that the number of earthquake events is increasing. Rapid rise since around 1960.16 | P a g e Hazard trends. Hazard trends (3) CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . and this would explain the slight rise in disasters. 1970 – 2005 Earthquakes • • • The trend for earthquakes is fairly stable.
065 300.150 110.000 165.002 128.013 300.009 152. Congo Year 1991 1992 2006 1982 1969 2005 1993 1994 2002 2002 1. Rep.000 250.400 • • • • • • Around 50-70 volcanoes erupt every year There is no trend in eruption frequency Very large magnitude eruptions (e. Mt Pinatubo in 1991) are rare There is a rising trend in the number of people affected Notice that 8 of the top 10 eruptions have occurred since 1990 This reflects growing population density in the developing world Hurricane Trends • • • • • Some researchers have linked the increase in hurricanes to global warming Others argue the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) has caused the increase There is a long-term trend in the USA of falling hurricane-related deaths but rising economic costs Coastal areas of Florida and the Gulf have seen population rises of 400% by 1980 This means an increased number of people are at risk CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .036.17 | P a g e Volcanoes Number of people affected Country Philippines (Mt Pinatubo) Nicaragua Ecuador Indonesia Indonesia Comoros Philippines Papua New Guinea Ecuador Dem.075 300.g.000 245.
and at a consistently rapid rate since the late 1970s. such as the 20 cm rise in global sea level since 1900 and the decline in Arctic sea ice since the 1970s. 1850–2008 • • • • Many scientists believe that increased global warming will lead to more unpredictable weather and a rise in extreme weather events. Global temperatures have risen since 1910.18 | P a g e • • The potential for economic loss continues to grow as populations rise The 5 major hurricanes that struck Florida in 2005 caused $120 billion in damage and the loss of 2. Flood Disaster Trends CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . The fact that there are only 30–35 years of reliable data about global temperatures makes the scientists’ task of accurately predicting future changes more difficult. are more reliable.200 lives Global Warming Global temperatures. Some data.
000 homes and 7. many areas in the UK received over 100 mm of rainfall in 24 hours. Separating the climate change signal from the human factors that increase flood risk is a real challenge. Summer 2007 UK Floods Rainfall pattern. rapid urbanisation. CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . deforestation and other land-use changes. total cost £3 billion+ The basic cause of the flooding was a southerly jet stream. summer 2007 • • • In summer 2007. 1977–2007 • • • • Trends in global flood disasters show significant rises since the early 1990s. 50. This could be an early signal of climate change. It may also be related to rising populations. meaning low pressure and rain over the UK at a time when high pressure was to be expected. causing widespread flooding.000 businesses flooded.19 | P a g e Reported global flood disasters and death tolls.
One of these is urbanisation. there has been a significant rise of people earning less than $1 per day. compared to 29% in 1950. and increasing the vulnerability to hazards. World poverty continues to be a major issue. floods and hurricanes. In Latin America and Africa.20 | P a g e • Many meteorologists have linked this situation to La Niña conditions in the Pacific. Deforestation results from pressure on land with growing populations. Over 50% of the world’s population now lives in urban areas. These crowded spaces are especially vulnerable to major earthquakes. reducing the capacity to cope with. increasing the risk of flash floods and landslides Global Trends Disasters related to human development levels • Overall. Disaster Management CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . global trends show that: ○ The numbers of reported disasters and people affected are rising ○ But the number of people killed by disasters is falling. Human Trends • • • • • • Some trends among the human population add to increasing risk.
Death tolls are reduced when populations are prepared for a possible hazard. I was asked to complete case studies of all the different types of hazards. I originally did them on MS Publisher. These responses are longer term. Some hazards can be predicted. International relief efforts now occur quickly in response to disasters. This can save lives. e. I still have some of the files to the detailed case studies. However. I no longer have MS publisher and therefore cannot access the files to produce my detailed case studies in this revision booklet. After a disaster. hurricanes. but is unlikely to reduce economic losses. so if you would like to have them. costly and beyond the reach of many in the developing world. Despite this.21 | P a g e • • • • • • • • • Falling death tolls suggest improvements in disaster management. Prediction allows for warning and evacuation. As part of my October half term homework. This saves lives but the numbers affected and the economic losses are still high. But. ‘Rapid response’ has improved considerably over the last few decades. CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . The challenge is to ‘disaster proof’ communities by: ○ Using appropriate building techniques ○ land-use zoning ○ education ○ developing prevention technology. drought and volcanic eruptions.g. then please leave a comment on the section where you download this revision booklet and I will email them to you if possible. floods. immediate rescue and relief is essential.
22 | P a g e El Nino/La Nina • This affects the weather around the world – therefore it’s a context hazard • These events happen every 2-7 years and last for 1-2 years • It is not clear whether global warming is changing the frequency or intensity During El Nino: CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .
Mexico and the Coasts of Peru and Ecuador often results in flooding and mudslides • Suppression of the cold current in the east pacific devastates fish catches off the west coast of South America • Tornados in the USA are reduced • More cyclones in Hawaii and Polynesia but fewer in North Australia • Southern Africa may experience drought • East Africa may experience floods During La Nina: • • • • • • Higher rainfall in Indonesia and the Philippines Lower rainfall on the west coast of South America Southern Africa and Southern Australia may experience floods Eastern Africa. leading to drought. Flooding • • Flooding is a common hazard Risk is related to physical factors: ○ Heavy rain ○ Impermeable rock/soil ○ Sparse vegetation cover ○ Steep slopes And human factors: ○ Urbanisation ○ Deforestation CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © • . This migrates seasonally. Oceanic and India. crop failure and wildfires • Heavy rain in California. around 80-90 km thick Magma: Molten material that rises towards the Earth’s surface when hotspots within the asthenosphere generate convection currents Hotspot: A localised area of the Earth’s crust with an unusually high temperature Plume: An upwelling of abnormally hot rock within the Earth’s mantle Inter-tropical convergence zone: A zone of low atmospheric pressure near the equator.23 | P a g e Rainfall is reduced in Southeast Asia. California and South America may experience drought More hurricanes in the Caribbean and USA SECTION 3 – GLOBAL HAZARD PATTERNS Key Definitions Asthenosphere: A semi-molten zone of rock underlying the Earth’s crust Lithosphere: The crust of the Earth.
drought may contribute to the onset of famine Tropical Cyclones • Tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons) are intense low pressure weather systems that occur in belts just north and south of the equator CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .24 | P a g e • ○ Poor river management ○ Building on floodplains ○ Lack of preparedness Flooding is possible in numerous locations (see map below) and is likely to increase in frequency in many areas due to climate change Drought • • • • Drought occurs when precipitating falls below ‘normal’ and expected levels Drought has a slow-onset Those who rely directly on food production and natural water sources are most vulnerable In extreme cases.
and their consequences can be catastrophic in terms of both human and economic loss • • • • • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . flooding low-lying coastal areas ○ Intense rainfall contributes to flooding ○ Winds of up to 280 km h-1 cause structural damage and often deaths Plate Tectonics The movement of the Earth’s tectonic plate is responsible for most earthquakes and volcanoes • Oceanic plates are normally thicker and more dense than continental plates • Most hazards occur at the boundaries where two plates meet • The risk from these hazards is closely related to the type of plate boundary. often occurring simultaneously Earthquakes • Earthquakes are not predictable. with some boundaries more hazardous than others Volcanoes Volcanoes occur in well-known.g. ash fall. e. pyroclastic flows and lahars. June-November in the north Atlantic and October-May in the southern hemisphere Hurricanes Hurricane intensity is measured on the Saffir-Simpson scale which ranges from 1 to 5. including lava flows. with 5 the most devastating storm • Storms that make landfall have severe impacts: ○ Low pressure creates a storm surge.25 | P a g e • • They are generated in source areas and track along the trade wind paths Tropical cyclones occur in distinct seasons. localised areas Monitoring and prediction can often reduce risk The most devastating volcanoes are located on destructive plate boundaries in densely populated developing countries • A single volcano can generate a range of hazards.
Landslides/Lahars. Volcanoes.26 | P a g e • Large. Iran. 2008 Kashmir.6 8.000 17.78 2.000 Numerous volcanic islands Earthquakes. 2001 Magnitude 7.000 26. one hazard triggers or exacerbates another – earthquakes trigger landslides.4 Deaths 70.000+ 200.95 0.000 80. 2005 Sumatra. Pakistan.415 RIC 0. Fires Philippines 1. wind. • • • • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . India. China. for example up to a third of deaths in the 2005 Kashmir earthquake were a result of landslides Disaster hotspots Disaster hotspots occur when two or more hazards occur in the same location In many cases. vulnerable populations live in high-risk locations • In the developing world.8 7. and typhoon rainfall triggers lahars • Disaster hotspots are the world’s most unpredictable and dangerous locations • The Philippines and the California coast California and the Philippines compared Average income (US$) Country type Human development index Annual population growth Under 5 mortality rate Physical geography Hazards California Coast 45.g.3% 40/1. further snowfall and alpine sports • Landslides may be triggered by earthquakes. Indonesia.000 Slides Landslides and avalanches are 2 types of mass movement Landslides are most common in geologically young mountains and tectonically active areas • Water movement and precipitation. Tsunamis.000 MEDC 0. plus land-use change (e. are important factors in generating landslides • Avalanches are most common in alpine environments where winter snowfall is disturbed by periodic thaws.7% 7/1. Flash floods.000 Plains and mountain ranges Earthquakes. the capacity to cope is often low Worst earthquakes in the last decade: Location Sichuan. 2004 Bam. deforestation).6 7. 2003 Gujarat.9 6.
disaster training & education: • • • • • National Disaster Co-ordinating Council Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical services Land-use planning and building regulation Structural programmes of defence – help people to survive the huge range of hazards facing them lower middle income developing fast CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . the government has established several organisations to carry out forecasting. especially in Luzon – the country’s most economically and politically important island of the country In response. about 10 typhoons occur each season. making them vulnerable to tsunamis and typhoon storm surges • On average. where the Eurasian plate and the Philippines plate collide (Volcanoes and earthquakes) California sits on a conservative plate boundary (earthquakes) Compulsory Disaster Hotspot Case Study: The Philippines The Philippines consists of over 7000 islands Many are small and are concentrated at the latitudes between 5 and 20°N of the equator It lies in a belt of tropical cyclones and an active plate boundary The dense oceanic Philippines plate is being subducted beneath the Eurasian plate The country experiences a tropical monsoon climate and is subject to heavy rainfall Flooding can lead to landslides because of the deforestation of hillsides • • • ••The Philippines is a country which is • Rapidly increasing young population • Average population densities for the country are high at 240 people per km2 • Many of these people are very poor and live on the coast. hazard risk assessment. warning.27 | P a g e Typhoons. Flooding • • • • • • The 2 hotspots contrast in terms of physical geography The Philippines sit on a destructive plate margin.
The hazardous zone is concentrated along the San Andreas Fault Much of the coastline is crowded as various land users compete for prime space This human-physical interface increases the danger from hazards Sophisticated management prevents California from becoming a disaster zone For example. including huge risks from geophysical hazards (especially earthquakes) as well as a range of atmospheric hazards such as fog. the Southern Leyte landslide killed 1.126 people. and associated wildfires. a recent earthquake which struck off the Northern shore of California in January 2010 measuring 6.5 million underclass live in hazardous locations • • • • • • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . Compulsory Disaster Hotspot Case Study: California Coast • • • 40 million people High-income economy Suffers from a vast range of hazards.28 | P a g e In 2006.6 on the Richter scale. A large proportion of the 3. and major impacts from the El Nino Southern Oscillation. The landslide occurred following a 10 day period of heavy rain and a minor earthquake measuring 2. drought.5 resulted in no deaths.
Church Stretton fault These minor earthquakes cause damage to a few buildings and occasional minor injury but no deaths 3) Snowstorms and droughts Shropshire’s continental position within the UK leads to harsh winters and severe snowfalls • In March 2007 there were heavy snowfalls for 2 days • Shropshire also experiences heat waves and droughts in summer. when the whole of the country falls under the influence of an anticyclone 4) Storms and Tornadoes • Violent storms and flash flooding in Tenbury wells (2007) and the Telford Tornado in 2007 The Distribution of Geophysical Hazards – Volcanoes World’s active volcanoes are found on: ○ Constructive plate boundaries ○ Destructive plate boundaries ○ Hotspots • Volcanoes often occur in localised areas • Plate movement is about 15cm every year • New technology means we can monitor and predict when they will erupt and this can often reduce risk Destructive plate boundary • • • • • • • • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .g. e.29 | P a g e Investigating the hazard risk of your local area: Shropshire Research the history of hazard events in your local area using: ○ Historic newspapers (history archive in local library) ○ Searching online ○ Interviewing older residents 4 main hazard types in Shropshire 1) Flooding Flooding from major rivers such as the Severn Between 1970 and 2000 flooding was eliminated by catchment management in the upper Severn (the building of Clyweddog dam and Melverley Washlands basin) • 2007flash food: Tenbury wells resulted from torrential rainfall of up to 20mm in 3 hours 2) Earthquakes Range from 4 to 5 on the Richter scale Result from movement along historic fault lines.
the bigger the earthquake The most destructive plate boundaries are also associated with volcanoes • Example of D. E.g. as only in Iceland do they go above sea level • Hotspots A hotspot is a localised area of the Earth’s crust with an unusually high temperature • Plume is the fixed point under the plate • As a plate moves over the hotspot a chain of volcanoes are created. Soufriere Hills in Montserrat Constructive plate boundary • Most of the constructive plate volcanoes don’t pose a threat to humans. E.30 | P a g e The worst volcanoes occur on destructive plate boundaries in densely populated regions • 80% of the worlds active volcanoes are located on destructive plate boundaries.P: Nazca underneath South American plate Constructive plate boundary • • • • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . Hawaii Volcanic Hazards • Lava • Ash falls • Tsunamis • Mudflows • Pyroclastic flows – move about 100 km/h and are 300°C Earthquakes • The Lithosphere is divided into 7 major plates • These plates float on the asthenosphere Destructive Plate Boundary • One plate is forced underneath of the other Associated with ocean-ocean subduction and ocean-continent subduction The further into the subduction.B.g.
g.g.000 people ○ Deep seam mining – Decreases support & stability of land Earthquake hazards Primary Hazards • • Result from ground movement and shaking Surface seismic waves can cause: • • • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . North Indian (1993) killed 10. Killari. e. Church Stretton fault in Shropshire • Earthquakes can also occur from human actions: ○ Dam & reservoir construction – Increases weight & stress on land E.B: The San Andreas Fault Other Earthquakes A small minority earthquakes occur on ancient fault lines.31 | P a g e • • • 2 plates separate/move away from each other Magma rises up through the Earth’s crust forming volcanoes Example of Constructive P.B: Mid-Atlantic Ridge Conservative plate boundary Slide passed each other in opposite directions Friction causes vibrations which is the earthquake • Example of Conservative P.
g. E. E.32 | P a g e ○ Buildings to collapse ○ Water & gas pipes to burst Secondary Hazards • • • • • • Soil Liquefaction Landslides Avalanches Tsunamis All of the above significantly add to the death toll Distribution of Geophysical Hazards – Landslides Landslides are the 7th biggest killer with over 1400 deaths per year (higher than volcanoes and droughts) Most mountainous areas experience landslides after abnormally heavy rain.g. Norway • • • Hillside Deforestation in Laos Landslide in Alesund. or seismic activity Humans can increase landslide risks by hillside deforestation. on a slope under an apartment block The Distribution of Hydro-Meteorological Hazards – Drought • • Drought has a dispersed pattern – Over 1/3 of the world’s land surface has some level of drought exposure This includes 70% of the world’s people and agricultural value – which means that drought has an effect on global food security CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . Laos Buildings on hill slopes can lead to widespread landslides. Norway.
g. High-pressure zones expand and block the rain-bearing winds • In Ethiopia and Somalia. it brings a band of seasonal rain • In some years. particularly in LEDC’s such as Kenya. Ethiopia and Sahel • Additional areas suffering drought: ○ South East & South West Australia ○ Sahelian Africa ○ Great plains of the USA ○ Mediterranean Europe. E. like the UK However. depressions are forced to track further north. E. leading to very dry conditions Droughts from blocking anticyclones were felt in France and UK in 2003 and 2006 • • • • • Drought Hazards • Crop failure • Loss of livestock • Wildfires • Dust storms • Famine Drought also has economic impacts on agriculture and water-related businesses in developed countries CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . Northern Kazakhstan ○ Northeast Brazil Causes of Drought Drought has a slow onset and is a creeping hazard Variations in the movement of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) band around the equator of the tropics where warm moist air gathers • As the ITCZ moves North and South through Africa.33 | P a g e Countries suffering from drought Drought causes famine. if blocking anticyclones form and persist.g. families may suffer from famine if the summer rains never arrive Drought and El Nino El Nino can bring major changes to rainfall patterns In 2006. it brought drought to Indonesia and Australia whilst South America got loads of heavy rain Changes in mid-latitude depression tracks • • • In temperate regions. depressions bring large amounts of rainfall. Spain & Portugal ○ Interior Asia.
as in Mozambique in 1997 and 2006 • Rapid snowmelt can add water to an already swollen river Flooding Hazards • • • • • Deaths by drowning and disease Destruction of food crops Destruction of infrastructure Loss of home Disruption of transport and communication networks • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .34 | P a g e Distribution of Hydro-meteorological hazards – Flooding Flooding is a frequent hazard and is evident in some 33% of the world’s area. cyclones and depressions • Flash floods can have devastating affects • Intense rainfall sometimes associated with thunderstorms can lead to localised flash flooding • El Nino can bring devastating floods. which is inhabited by over 80% of its population • Regional scale. Bangladesh and China • The main cause of flooding is excessive rainfall from monsoons. high-magnitude floods are frequent events in India.
35 | P a g e • • Damages livelihoods Creates high insurance costs Distribution of Hydro-meteorological hazards – Storms Storms include tropical cyclones. mid-latitude storms and tornadoes Tropical cyclones occur North and South of the Equator. E. Hurricane Katrina • • • • • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .g. ranging from 5 to 20° Bangladesh suffers from tropical cyclones Tropical cyclones will only occur over warm oceans that are 26°C+ Tropical cyclones are most common in the East Pacific between June and October – occur 3 or more times a year on average • Caribbean creates 11% of tropical cyclones between August and October • Tropical cyclones created over East Asia from May to December and happen over 5 times a year on average Tropical storm hazards • • • Heavy rain (leading to mudslides and floods) High wind velocity and low central pressure (leading to storm surges and coastal flooding) They can be devastating.
the surface of the planet would be 33°C cooler and life on earth would have not been able to exist or evolve Natural Greenhouse Effect • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .8 and 4°C in the next 100 years • The climate of the Earth exists due to a naturally occurring phenomenon known as the Greenhouse Effect • Without it.36 | P a g e SECTION 4 – CLIMATE CHANGE & ITS CAUSES Introductory points Current research estimates that average global temperatures will increase by between 1.
whilst the rest is absorbed by the Earth. the heat is re-radiated which warms the Earth up even more. Consequently.37 | P a g e Solar radiation from the sun beats down on the Earth. However. resulting in an Enhanced Greenhouse Effect The enhanced greenhouse effect is the increase in the natural greenhouse effect. when industrialisation began in the UK CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . Some radiation bounces straight back into space. said to be caused by human activities which increase the quantity of greenhouse Gases in the atmosphere Main Greenhouse Gases (GHG’s) • Water Vapour • Carbon Dioxide • Nitrous Oxide • Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s) • Methane • Ozone Increasing Concentrations • The quantities of some of these gases have increased by 25% since 1750. Reasons for Climate Change • • • • Climate change is part of a naturally occurring cycle influenced by many different factors Recent evidence suggests that human activities are largely responsible for the warming trend This is largely due to the influence of human activities on GHG concentrations. some of the radiation bouncing back into space is intercepted and absorbed by greenhouse gases present in the atmosphere.
CFCs absorb solar radiation. annual emissions livestock flatulence have increased 4x faster than CO2 Nitrous Oxide Agricultural fertilisers. atmosphere. more condensation and therefore more cloud cover to trap heat in the atmosphere Key GHG’s & their contribution to Global Warming Contribution to Global Warming Carbon Dioxide Burning of Carbon-based Increased atmospheric CO2 by fuels (e. this encourages the evaporation of water vapour. changing to nitric production of synthetic oxide which destroys ozone chemicals (e. Coal and Oil) 25% Chlorofluorocarbons Propellants in spray cans. evident since 1970s The Wane of Winter • Arctic: Summer of 2008. Lake Chad and Senegal have seen a 40-60% reduction in the total amount of water available • Mediterranean and Southern Asia – Reduced amounts of rainfall has lowered soil moisture. Since 1950. (CFCs) foam plastics and refrigerant The thinning in the Ozone layer fluids between 10 and 25km above Antarctica was probably caused by CFCs Methane Rice production. the main GHG More water vapour. vegetation.g. burning Very effective in retaining heat. thus making existing problems of drought and desertification worse • Northern Europe – Frequency of heavy rainfall events has increased • North Atlantic – Warmer oceans expected to give rise to an increased intensity of tropical cyclones. coal mining. Nylon) Ozone N/A Acts like a greenhouse gas but plays a vital role in dispersing harmful UV rays Evidence of a changing world Tropics – increased evaporation due to warmer temperatures has led to an increase in rainfall • Sahel – increased evaporation has made water even scarcer • Catchment areas of Niger. Traps infrared radiation in the burning fossil fuels.38 | P a g e • • Due to the increase in global temperatures. both the NE and NW passages around the Arctic were clear of sea ice due to a net fall of the pack ice accumulation during the winter months • Greenhouse Gas Source CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .g.
Alaska’s permafrost temperature has increased 0. a vivid sign that the coral is responding to stress induced by increased or decreased water temperatures (often attributed to global warming). as natural climate cycles enter a cooling phase. The science of global warming is not proved.000 polar bears compared with 5.4 and 0. sinking roads and buildings. scientists have CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . such as Bangladesh and Orissa. the annual rate of increase was 3.1mm per year Alps – changes have resulted in the loss of traditional species from mountain slopes and the migration of species to higher altitudes due to increased temperatures Arguments for and against Climate Change For Against Sceptics also argue that while environmentalists are very keen to show photographs of polar bears struggling on supposedly melting icebergs. They argue that although the global surface temperature has risen in the last 200 years. the global sea level has risen by about 10 to 25 cm Rainfall around the world has risen by about 1%. it is still very low compared to the time of the dinosaurs. If global warming continues. it is estimated that there are now 22. and are consistent with data from weather balloons. There is a lot of Bleached coral present on the ocean/sea floors. It is argued that we don’t have long term historical records of weather. storms and droughts have shown how vulnerable the UK is to extreme weather events and scientists Satellite readings of temperatures in the lower troposphere (an area scientists predict would immediately reflect any global warming) show no warming since readings began 23 years ago.01ºC. Some scientists have argued that the current climate changes we are experiencing might actually be part of our "normal" climate. Many Indian states. this situation will also create more water to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere with and so global warming is further reduced. the situation is likely to get worse Over the past few years.3°C over the last 40 years Snow. The Earth's temperature may stay roughly the same for a decade. While global warming might cause the sea level to rise. mountain glaciers and Arctic sea ice in the northern hemisphere are all melting.8mm per year Between 1993 and 2003.5ºC to 1. Global surface temperatures have increased by between 0. have suffered severe flooding in recent years.2 to 0.39 | P a g e • • • • • • Collectively. floods. eroding tundra riverbanks. 65 million years ago.5ºC since 1980 with resulting forest damage. These readings are accurate to within 0. the Northern hemisphere has seen a 10% reduction in the amount of snow cover in its mid to high latitudes since the 1960s Switzerland has lost 2/3 of the volume of its glaciers during the 20th century Melt water from Greenland and Antarctica has been one of the main contributors of rapid sea level rise that has occurred in recent decades Between 1961 and 1993 the average rise in sea level was 1. Over the last 100 years.8ºC since the late 19th century and by about 0. changes in tundra vegetation and increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions from thawed peat.000 in 1940 and there are several reputable scientific studies that have shown that the mass of the Greenland ice sheet is actually expanding.
Climate Timescales Long term Climate Data Long term climate change has occurred on geological timescales. A resident said they have never come in so inland before. so predicting climate scientists in the US change is like rolling dozens of dice: you can’t be sure what your final result will be because there are so many possible results. This occurred as a result of First. Tebua Tarawa and Abanuea. this possibility depends on proxy data. 2 South Pacific There is an argument that CO2 levels lag Islands. Paeleoclimatology The study of past climates is important as it allows us to make judgements as to whether present-day global warming is part of a natural cycle or fluctuation. If so. The Earth is absorbing more energy from the Some experts think we’ve got it all Sun than it is giving back into space. Evidence for this most often comes from ice cores. and scientists claim that global warming is what is making them do so. CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . which are now starting to submerge the tiny islands. over several hundreds of thousands to millions of years.40 | P a g e predict increasing episodes of such events predicted. One of the Island’s main road has started to get submerged and homes are at threat. drove changes in levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. sea in 1999. in turn. It is true that the fluctuations in temperatures that caused the ice ages were initiated by changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun which. or whether it is occurring because of anthropogenic influences (human-induced). Tuvalu is seeing increased intensity of tidal waves. and were then followed by rises in levels of carbon dioxide up to several hundred years later. the current climate change would have nothing to do with humans today/recently. completely wrong because the climate according to a new study by climate system is very complex. disappeared under the waves of the behind temperatures by 800 years or so. This is backed up by data from ice cores which show that rises in temperature came first. and scientists believe this since records don't go back that far. as a result of sea level rise and increased water in the sea. rising sea levels. because of climate change The increase of three-quarters of a degree Rising levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and centigrade (0. century is larger than can be accounted for by natural factors alone. But it was an affect of global warming.75°C) in average global other greenhouse gases (GHGs) do not temperatures that we have seen over the last correlate with global warming. could well be true because it's so consistent.
so climate data prior to this cannot be accurately verified. Short term climate change has been measured over the last few decades using sensitive. Since around 1850. Short term Climate data Evidence for Short Term Climate Change CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . direct measurements of climate variables have been made using thermometers and rain gauges. accurate equipment such as satellites and ocean temperature buoys. It may only be inferred from written accounts and descriptions that only indicate the prevailing climate and not actually measure it.41 | P a g e Medium term Climate data Medium term timescale covers changes over the last few thousand years.
42 | P a g e Changes in global ice cover in response to recent climate change CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .
43 | P a g e Evidence of Medium-term Climate Change CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .
and must be used with care • They are usually local. • Written accounts such as the Greenland sagas are also useful records Problems in using the above as sources of evidence • The sources did not set out to record climate. precipitation. but it is localised It is difficult to determine the relative importance of temperature.44 | P a g e Proxy records are used to reconstruct climate before the start of instrumental records • Proxy records include: ○ Paintings ○ Poems ○ Record books ○ Diaries & Journals ○ All of which recorded weather at the time • The Thames froze over regularly between 1500 and 1850 – this period was known as the Little Ice Age • Mid 14th century – dates of the grape harvest in France had been carefully recorded and used to indicate past climate • HOWEVER. and it is difficult to use them to generalise Tree ring analysis indicating change in climatic conditions Wide tree rings reflect good growing conditions Narrow tree rings reflect periods of climate stress Long term sequences of tree rings can be obtained from living trees. and the artists interpretation is open to artist flair and freedom • Because the freezing of the Thames was an extreme and unusual event. are highly subjective • They are one person’s view of an event. such as that of the Frost Fair on the Thames during the Little Ice Age. the grape harvest could have been affected by non-climate factors such as conflict or decreased vines • Reliability of such data would have been reduced due to the fact that the harvest dates would have been recorded by different individuals and the recording methods would have changed • Old paintings involving weather events. sunlight and wind Glacier position indicating climate conditions • • • • • • • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . such as the Bristlecone pines of the Western USA Relative merits of tree ring climatic record Accuracy of tree ring record is good. photographs and sequences such as the Grape Harvest data. it may have been exaggerated • The actual temperature and the duration of the event cannot be easily estimated Using Historical records to indicate past climate change Historical records can be used to indicate past climate change by analysing paintings.
45 | P a g e • Glacier position can indicate climate conditions because some glaciers. such as valley glaciers. grow and shrink in response to climate Thames Frost Fair. 1683-84. by Thomas Wyke Evidence of Long Term Climate Change CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .
46 | P a g e CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .
47 | P a g e Palaeoclimatology Evaluation Milankovitch Cycles CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .
but that same hemisphere will be in winter at aphelion and have a colder winter.1° and 24. and this wobble is precession.44° and is in its decreasing phase of its cycle.000 years Axial Tilt (Obliquity) 41. the seasons would be more extreme – warmer summers and colder winters – as one hemisphere receives more solar radiation than the other.48 | P a g e • • Surface temperature of the Earth changes over time because the Earth’s orbit and axis tilt vary over time These variations lead to changes in the amount and distribution of solar radiation received by the Earth from the sun Cycle Orbital Shape (Eccentricity) 100. The hemisphere which is in summer at perihelion will receive much of the increase in solar radiation. Currently the Earth is tilted as 23. The Eccentricity is a measure of the departure of the ellipse from circularity. Precession refers to the direction the Earth tilts in relation to its orbit around the sun and this cycle occurs approx every 21. the seasons are less severe – cooler summers and milder winters – as solar radiation is distributed more evenly between the hemispheres.000 years Explanation Eccentricity is the shape of the Earth’s orbit around the sun. taking approximately 41. in the range of 20-30% When the tilt of the Earth increases.000 years CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . The tilt in the Earth’s axis usually varies by 2. When the Earth’s orbit is more elliptical. The shape of the Earth’s orbit varies from being nearly circular (low eccentricity) to being mildly elliptical (high eccentricity) Axial tilt refers to the inclination of the Earth’s axis in relation to its orbit around the sun.4°C periodically. When the tilt decreases.000 years Effect on Climate Today the Earth experiences a 6% difference in the amount of solar radiation received in January compared to July. Axial Precession (Wobble) 21. the amount of energy received would vary much more between seasons. Earth does not have a perfect spin about its axis. It wobbles. The other hemisphere will have a relatively warmer winter and cooler summer.5° and back again.000 years to shift between a tilt of 22.
the actual impact of orbital changes on solar radiation amount and distribution is small – probably no more than enough to change global temperature by 0. but climate mechanisms are needed to sustain it • From evidence of past climate change.g. ice ages were about 5°C cooler than interglacials Positive Feedback • • • • • Amplify a small change and make it larger E.000 year intervals However.49 | P a g e Milankovitch Cycle questions Evidence to support the theory of Milankovitch Cycles Ice ages have occurred at regular 100. more solar energy is reflected back into space ○ This contributes to further cooling. which might encouraged further snowfall CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .5°C Why do scientists believe that the cycles have a significant influence on our climate? Milankovitch cycles may just be enough to trigger a major global climate change. Snow and Ice cover ○ Small ↑ in snow and ice dramatically raise surface albedo (reflectivity) ○ Consequently.
as well as longer cycles Relationship between sunspots and global temperatures The total variation in solar radiation caused by sunspots is about 0. although it is unclear whether the medieval warm period was a global event Evidence that sunspots have influenced the Earth’s climate • • • • Some scientists have suggested that around 20% of 20th century warming may be attributed to solar output variation Volcanic and cosmic causes How volcanic activity can alter global climates Major eruptions eject material into the stratosphere.5°C cooling identified by the Milankovitch is amplified into a 5°C global cooling Negative Feedback • • Diminish the change and make it smaller E. caused by intense magnetic storms • There is a well known 11 year sunspot cycle.4 – 0. where high-level winds distribute it around the globe • Volcanoes eject huge volumes of: ○ Ash ○ Sulphur dioxide ○ Water vapour ○ Carbon dioxide • High in the atmosphere. Cloud cover ○ As global warming occurs. sulphur dioxide forms a haze of sulphate aerosols. more evaporation will occur and this may increase global cloud cover ○ Increasingly cloudy skies could reflect more solar energy back into space.7°C • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .g. and diminish the effect of the warming Solar Output Questions What are sunspots and is there a pattern to their occurrence? Sunspots are dark spots that appear on the sun’s surface.50 | P a g e ○ This may be how the 0.1% A long period with almost no sunspots occurred between 1645 and 1715 – linked to the little ice age • The medieval warm period has been linked to more intense sunspot activity. resulting in a ‘year without a summer’ in 1816 as global temperatures dipped by 0. which reduces the amount of sunlight received at the Earth’s surface Evidence/events to support this theory • Tambora eruption (1815) ejected 200 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide.
they prevented the heat of the sun getting through. China. Africa & British Isles Effects of global dimming • • The more reflective clouds could alter the pattern of the worlds rainfall with tragic consequences Could have been responsible for famine and death on a biblical scale CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . Pollution particles were blocking sunlight However.51 | P a g e • Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991 ejected 17 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide resulting in temperature falls Global Dimming What global dimming is and its influence on the climate • Atmospheric pollutants like soot and sulphur dioxide reflect solar energy back into space and so have a net cooling effect Evidence to support Global Dimming • Between 1950s and‘ 1990s. matched exactly the drop in sunlight reported by Scientists Causes of global dimming • • • • • • • Energy production causes pollution Burning fuel not only produces GHGs. which provided 10x more sites for water droplets to form Instead of the water droplets being large and few like they are naturally. humidity and wind Decline in pan evaporation in Russia. US and Eastern Europe – pan on average evaporated 100mm less of water in the last 30 years Drop of 250 megajules in the decline of sunlight in Russia The drop in evaporation rate. ash and sulphur dioxide. so consequently. but it also produces tiny airborne particles such as sut which causes the haze/smog In North Maldives. It was the same over India. but global temperatures were going up Temperature not the most factor in pan evaporation Sunlight (dominant). the rate of pan evaporation was falling. the level of solar energy reaching the earth’s surface dropped: ○ ○ ○ ○ 9% in Antarctica 10% in USA Almost 30% in Russia 16% in parts of the British Isles • • • • • • In 1990s. they also turned clouds into giant mirrors reflecting sun back into space They do this as the polluted air contains particles of sut. Pacific. they were small and many of them which reflect more light. Western Europe.
000 people died in France due to temperatures rising over 40°C in the first 2 weeks of August Temperatures could rise as double as Climatologists originally thought. making the UK’s climate warmer • It also influences the growth of sub-tropical plants in the Scilly isles Thermohaline Circulation • • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . which was needed to draw the tropical rains northward to the Sahel Pollution from North America and Europe meant that the Africa monsoons failed which directly killed 1 million people and affected 50 million more How have humans lessened the sources of particular matter into the atmosphere to reduce global dimming? • • • • • • • • Scrubbers in power stations Cayalytic convetors Low sulphur fuels Banned 4* petrol Renewable.52 | P a g e • • • • • 1984 Ethiopian famine was partly caused by a decade’s long drought across the Sahel Year after year.g. sustainable resources (e.000 billion tonnes of methane would be released into the atmosphere SECTION 5 – IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Impacts of Climate Change on the world’s oceans Role of Oceans and winds in making the Earth habitable Oceans and winds help to distribute heat from the equator towards the poles Winds blowing across the sea transport heat through the atmosphere and drive ocean currents towards the poles Northern flow of the Gulf Stream influence on the UK • AKA North Atlantic Drift • It flows north past the west coast of the UK. triggering irretrievable changes such as the melting of ice caps which would rise sea levels by 8m TRF’s would burn down and turn into desert 10. Wind/Solar) Recycle Improve public transport so there are less cars on the road EU Ban on the manufacturing of filament 100w light bulbs How reducing global dimming has grave consequences for the future • • • • • As we reduce global dimming. the summer rains failed – Scientists blamed overgrazing and poor land management However. we induce global warming In 2003. over 11. evidence suggests that the cause was global dimming Polluted clouds stopped the heat of the sun getting through.
which melts the ice and increases rainfall • Melt water lowers the salinity. and CO2 that would normally stay there is released into the atmosphere Britain without the Gulf Stream Impact on the weather CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . creating bitter winters Increasing River Flows Where does the freshwater come from in the Arctic Ocean? • Mostly comes from the 6 largest Eurasian Arctic Rivers • • • What effect will increased freshwater flow have in the Arctic? Could slow down or even shut off the North Atlantic Drift. ready to be warmed again. which makes it denser. Changes in the Polar Oceans Carbon Sink Southern Ocean around Antarctica absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere Cold dense seawater absorbs CO2 These sinks are vital as they absorb excess CO2 slowing down G. heavier and causes it to sink • When the water sinks.53 | P a g e The flow of warm and cold water that circulates around the world’s oceans In the far North Atlantic. How the global conveyor belt is being disturbed More freshwater is entering the Arctic Ocean as a result of global warming. the ocean is stirred up. the water is cold and very saline. affecting the thermohaline circulation and cooling the whole of Northern Europe. the movement from the Tropics draw cold water up from the ocean bottom.W What researchers have found regarding the CO2 Sink • • • • • • • Researchers have found that CO2 sinks have stayed the same since 1981. and slows down the rate at which the ocean sinks • This means that the water further down cannot draw warm water in from the ocean surface above What could be the result for Europe? • If the Thermohaline circulation stops. even though CO2 emissions have risen by 40% This may increase CO2 levels in the atmosphere The cause of the sink staying the same is increasing windiness As wind increases. January Western Europe temperature would drop by at least 5°C. it draws warmer water in from the ocean surface above • This then draws water across the ocean surface from the Tropics • Eventually. which decreases the density of the ocean.
the gulf stream transports 27..54 | P a g e • UK would be 5°C cooler in the winter time • This would bring the average London December temperature to 2°C Impact on the environment UK could eventually experience another ice age if the Gulf Stream shut down This is because the UK should have really cold winters due to its latitude.. Disappear under the waves • Coral reefs cover 0.000 times more heat to British shores than all the nations power supplies could provide • This means that the UK would have to open more power stations in order to produce much more energy.. but the Gulf Stream warms our winters by 5°C Consequences on Energy supply Currently. • . resulting in: ○ Increased emissions in the atmosphere enhancing global warming ○ Our natural resources being used up at a much faster pace ○ Extortionate prices of energy (Gas & Electricity) Consequences on Agriculture • Crops will have reduced growing seasons. London and Tokyo (Financial districts) • Predicting eustatic (changes in the sea level due to changes in the amount of water in the oceans) sea level rise is complex • Most models predict a rise of up to 1m by 2100 Reasons for the huge differences in prediction models CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © • • • • . • • • Indirect Impacts: The Global Impact of Sea Level Rise Change the basic shape of nations and continents Significant tracts of highly productive land will be lost to the oceans Coastal and low-lying communities: ○ Threat to the population ○ Threat to the infrastructure • Loss of biodiversity as habitats such as: ○ Coral reefs ○ Coastal mangroves ○ River Deltas .. including New York. as the 5°C temperature boost from the gulf stream allows arable farming to continue passed summer (such as East Anglia).2% of the Earth’s surface but hold 25% of the worlds biodiversity which could hold cures for cancer Modelling the Rise in Sea Level Worst case scenario is a 15m rise in sea level by 2100 would put many of the world’s great cities in peril.
the sea level would continue to rise due to the continued warming of the deep ocean • This is because there is a lag time of about 50 years in the atmosphere • Although sea level rise is a worldwide process.. thermal expansion will not be uniform Modelling of ice sheet and glacial contribution • • • Modelling the contribution of melting ice sheets and glaciers is complex Antarctic Ice sheets may increase in size with climate change. recent satellite observations suggest that atmospheric and oceanic warming are leading to a melting of both Greenland and Antarctica • • • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . the rise will vary depending on the region • This is due to the fact that there will be localised land movements caused by tectonic movements and isostatic change (movement of land in response to loss or gain of mass) from changing sediments of ice sheet pressure • As the oceans have different temperature. Even if greenhouse gas emissions stabilised.55 | P a g e Difficult of estimating future GHG emissions Whether the prediction model adopts a ‘business as usual’ or a sustainable scenario • Difficult to predict the impact of thermal expansion of the oceans and the contributions of melting of ice sheets and glaciers Rising sea level notes continued . because warming could lead to increased snowfall. However.
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mosses. particularly freshwater fish Increasing fires and insects Global warming will increase forest fires and insect-caused tree death This may have an impact on old-growth forest. methane emissions from warming wetlands and thawing permafrost could counterbalance this positive impact Other impacts • • Increased coastal erosion as thawing permafrost weakens the coast More waves and storms surges as sea ice is lost • • • • • • • • • • • Impacts on animal species Northward species shifts • • Species will shift north with forests Some species are likely to suffer major decline CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . lakes and rivers will drain as the frozen ground beneath them thaws • Rising river flows could create new wetlands in other places • These changes will have an impact on species.59 | P a g e Impacts of climate change on the Arctic – COMPULSORY CASE STUDY Impacts on natural systems Vegetation Shifts Vegetation zones are predicted to shift Northwards Coniferous forests would encroach tundra and ice deserts This shift will destabilise existing food webs The longer. fungi and birds • Alien species may invade Ultraviolent Impacts Increased UV radiation will reach the Earth’s surface as snow and ice cover is lost • Many freshwater ecosystems are highly sensitive to UV radiation. a value habitat that is rich in lichens. which destroys Phytoplankton at the base of the marine food chain Carbon cycle changes The replacement of Arctic vegetation with more forests will lead to higher primary productivity and increased CO2 uptake • However. warmer growing season will be a benefit to Arctic agriculture although soils will be a limiting factor Thawing of Permafrost Up to 40% of total permafrost is expected to thaw. especially in Siberia This will release large quantities of methane In some areas.
but disruption of land-based transport because of permafrost thawing • Enhanced agriculture and forestry • Arctic will become vulnerable to exploitation for oil. including polar bears. arctic fox and snowy owl are at risk • Impacts on Society The ecological and environmental changes described above will mean: • • • Loss of hunting culture and decline of food security for indigenous people Need for animals to change their migration routes (geese and reindeer) Decline in northern freshwater fisheries (e. threatened arctic char). gas. which creates potential for conflict between water users Demand outstrips supply of water for 25% of Africans • • • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . fish and other resources due to large areas of snow and ice melting. but decrease to the north and south of that band Water Issues • Life in Africa is regulated by access to water for: ○ Agriculture ○ Domestic use ○ Hydroelectric power Many of the larger rivers are internationally shared (e.60 | P a g e Marine Species Marine species dependent on sea ice. exposing new land and open sea Impacts of climate change on Africa – COMPULSORY CASE STUDY Africa makes the least contribution to global warming.g. seals.g. River Nile). walruses and some birds will decline • Some may face extinction • Birds like geese will have different migration patterns Land Species • Land species adapted to the Arctic climate such as vole. but enhanced marine fisheries (arrival of cod and herring due to warmer water) • Increasing access for marine shipping. but is the most vulnerable to climate change • It’s population is dependent on climate-sensitive resources such as local water and ecosystems • It has a limited ability to respond to changing climate because of poverty • Prediction: Temperature will rise in Africa overall by 3-4°C above the mean global change • Rainfall is likely to increase in the equatorial region.
in Darfur in the Sudan between pastoralists and arable farmers) • An unjust trading system forces many countries to sell their exports at a low price to compare with subsidised European and North American products • The burden of unpayable debt means that no money is available for the mitigation of climate impacts and the introduction of adaptive strategies Desertification • Major destroyer of grasslands • It is increased by unreliable or decreasing rainfall Development of Coastal zones • • • • • Movement of environmental refugees from the countryside puts pressure on the coastal zones.g.g. many of which are at risk of coastal erosion and flooding The threat from these is likely to increase as a result of rising sea level If the coastal zones were flooded.g. pasture quality deteriorate or crops fail • Increased locust plagues may also threaten food supplies Natural resources Poor people living in marginal environments depend directly on wild plants and animals to support their way of life • Loss of biodiversity due to climate change will threaten them Health • • Vector-borne diseases (e. bridges and buildings would also be lost • • • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . global migrations and famine Food insecurity 70% of the population are subsistence farmers Many won’t be able to feed themselves should water supplies dry up. Malaria) and water-bounre diseases (e. which are under threat • • • • Poverty Africa’s vulnerability is poverty 2/3 of LEDC’s are located in Africa Problem is made worse by conflicts (e. Freetown and Lagos 60% of Africans live in coastal zones. especially of north and west Africa Refugees set up home in shanty towns in cities such as Accra.61 | P a g e Poverty is the key reason why millions have no access to safe and reliable water supplies • Water stress could lead to wars. Diarrhoea) could increase with climate change 80% of health services rely on wild plants for remedies. much of the continent’s infrastructure of roads.
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66 | P a g e Global warming and the future A1a Scenario CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .
sea level would rise by 6 metres flooding: ○ 1/3 of Florida ○ Much of Manhattan ○ Most of Eastern England ○ Entire country of Bangladesh ○ Almost all of the Netherlands Shutting down the Atlantic thermohaline Circulation • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .67 | P a g e • Technology based on fossil fuels A1b Scenario • Technology based on non-fossil fuel sources A1c Scenario • Technology balanced across all energy resources A2 Scenario • Technological change is very slow B1 Scenario • Cleaner. more efficient technologies B2 Scenario • Slow but diverse technological change using wind or solar energy The concept of tipping point Tipping point is reached when climate change occurs irreversibly and at an increasing rate The following are 3 consequences that may already be happening as a result of climate change and global warming: Rising Sea Levels Greenpeace estimates that melting of the Arctic ice caps caused a rise in sea level of 10-25cm during the 20th century • In 21st century. they predict further rises of 15-95cm • 95cm rise in sea level would ○ result in large-scale coral bleaching ○ flood huge areas of inhabited land ○ threaten the world’s most diverse ecosystem • If the Greenland and west Antarctic ice sheets melt.
Europe.8 billion people will suffer water shortages for drinking and irrigation • • Over the next few decades.68 | P a g e 50% chance that this will shut down within 200 years This would make the land areas of Western Europe colder. USA & Russia It’s putting the poorest 200 million people in those areas at risk of starvation 2. Greenland’s ice sheet will melt irreversibly Falling agriculture yields and water shortages • • • Happening in Africa.02cm • If global temperatures rise by 2°C more than pre-1750. there is a possibility that up to 25% of the world’s mammals and 12% of its bird species may be lost to extinction CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . even though the process of global warming would continue to warm the oceans sufficiently to allow further melting of Greenland’s ice sheet • Current melting of Greenland’s ice sheet is causing annual sea level increases of 0.
69 | P a g e SECTION 6 – COPING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE Mitigation Reducing the output of GHG’s and increasing the size of GHG sinks (e.g. Rainforest) • Examples of mitigation: ○ Setting targets to reduce CO2 emissions ○ Switching to renewable energy resources ○ ‘Capturing’ carbon emissions from power stations and storing them in spent oil wells Adaptation • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .
transport etc.70 | P a g e • • Changing our lifestyles to cope with a new environment rather than trying to stop climate change Examples of adaptation: ○ Managed retreat of coastlines vulnerable to rising sea level ○ Developing drought-resistant crops (GM) ○ Enlarging existing conservation areas to allow for shifting habitat zones Human and natural systems may differ in their ability to respond to mitigation and adaptation strategies • Human Systems For human systems such as the economy. • However. recycling. mitigation could limit damage but adaption strategies could condemn natural environments that cannot adapt to the shift in climate • This would result in species loss and reduced biodiversity as ecosystems become increasingly threatened Adaptive Capacity to cope Some countries are better able to implement mitigation and adaptation strategies than others • Wealthier countries have the capital and resources to adapt to climate change • But poorer countries in the developing world lack this adaptive capacity to cope as they already have to overcome a number of ‘non-climatic stresses’. some of which need to be dealt with more urgently. adaptation may allow the cost to be spread over a longer time period Natural Systems For natural systems. mitigation will involve an upfront cost in reducing GHG emissions. Roadside collections Park and ride National Government policies and national tax frameworks Pass laws to set carbon reduction targets and monitor Global International agreements for global action Kyoto agreement Agenda 21 CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . such as: ○ Poverty ○ Poor infrastructure ○ Limited education and skills ○ Limited or unequal access to resources ○ Conflict and Civil War ○ Food Shortages ○ Water Stress ○ Disease Scales of Mitigation and Adaptation Individual Lifestyles and consumption choices Using reusuable bags Turn off standby • • • Local Local government strategies on planning.
e.g.71 | P a g e them Invest in green technologies Banning of the manufacturing of filament lightbulbs Set targets to reduce carbon emissions by 30% by 2020 and 60% by 2050 USA: Encouraging farmers to grow maize and other crops to have biofuel Store CO2 underground Tax on aviation fuels Recycling of white goods i. fridges Washing at 30°C Car sharing Public Transport Energy saving bulbs Switch off lights Turn off heating Loft insulation Recycling household waste Hybrid cars (Ethical consumerism) Composting Take showers instead of baths Education Bus lanes Congestion Charges Cycle lanes Car pool lanes Return packaging Stop supermarkets giving out bags Walking bus – walking all kids together to school Waste charging European emissions trading scheme Mitigation and Adaptation: Key Players Top down Strategies Incentives and schemes to reduce GHG emissions are designed and implemented by central government • E. Government legislation and targets are filtered down to regional assemblies and implemented by local councils Bottom up Strategies Small lifestyle changes made by all individuals within a community can accumulate into large differences and improvements within the environment • E. act local) • Local government/councils will play a large part in implementing central government strategies • Government legislation may enforce targets to cut emissions.g. so companies are required/enforced to consider their impact in the environment when conducting business • With increased public awareness on green issues. businesses are also keen to show their green credentials and portray a caring attitude toward the environment • • Actions and Responsibilities Business (Industry & TNC) CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . Individual households who recycle to replace traditional light bulbs with energy saving bulbs Key Players Key Players Governments • Organisation and facilitation of strategies to reduce GHG’s • May include strategies developed as a result of International Agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and Agenda 21 (Think global.
Most urban areas have roadside collections for recyclable waste • Using energy saving bulbs. which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions • Carbon credits allow companies to pollute.g.72 | P a g e NonGovernmenta l Organisation s (NGOs) Individuals Environmental charities such as Greenpeace and friends of the Earth can lobby governments to pressure them into changing legislation to protect the environment • They can also advise governments on how to develop and implement sustainable development strategies • Small/local environment groups can promote sustainable development schemes or work to protect and conserve the environment • E. public transport and being an ethical consumer are also examples of what you can do.g. called carbon credits. but at a cost • Each credit costs money which polluters have to pay. and is in proportion to the pollution produced • The cost encourages companies to look for other ways of production by polluting less or not at all Carbon credit forms Certified: ○ International exchanges which aim to cut overall emissions ○ Companies and/or countries are given targets. plants trees and run education schemes in local schools to raise environmental awareness in future generations • All individuals can take responsibility for ensuring that sustainable development strategies can be implemented • E. Wildlife groups such as North East Wales Wildlife work to create habitats for Great Crested Newts. • European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Carbon Offsetting Carbon offsetting is a credit system. allowing them to pollute a certain amount ○ Trading is allowed between those with higher or lower levels than they need • Voluntary ○ Payments or projects which offset emissions with equivalent CO2 savings ○ Used where people or organisations volunteer to offset the pollution they create EMS aim • • • Cut emissions by placing a limit on the total amount emitted Get polluters to pay for damage they cause by introducing credits for the GHG’s they emit Create incentives for companies to invest in cleaner technology CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © • • .
which farmers can then use to generate electricity London Congestion charge is an £8 charge per day to drive in the Central London congestion zone: ○ Traffic levels have fell by 15% ○ Congestion has fell by 30% ○ 60% less disruption to bus services Kyoto Protocol • Global agreement setting targets for reducing GHG emissions • 175 countries have signed up K. enclosed pools to collect the effluent and capture methane from pigs. the BP set itself the target of reducing its GHG emissions by 10% within 12 years – it did this within just 3! Policies the UK government have introduced to reduce GHG’s Change from coal to cleaner gas-fired power stations Taxation of petrol more higher to cut demand Agricultural practices programme – feeding strategies for animals to reduce methane • The Climate Change Levy (CCL) – a tax on the use of energy in industry.P Mechanisms to reduce GHG emissions Emissions trading – if countries reduce emissions below targets. commerce and the public sector Countries against the Kyoto Protocol • USA: ○ • • • • • • Produced 31.73 | P a g e Failure of the ETS Manufacturing companies have been moving out of Europe. they can sell their excess emissions credit to others • MEDC’s can finance low emission projects in LEDC’s and receive credits – includes clean technology and planting trees to create extra carbon sinks How organisations and governments have cut their emissions Between 1990 and 2000 the UK reduced its GHG emissions by 12.8% In 1998.000 tonnes US TNC Bunge. This avoids annual CO2 emissions of 170. has built lined. thus reducing the demand for carbon credits and causing the price to fall • Companies immediately passed the price of the credits on to their customers.6% of 1990 CO2 emissions CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . and polluters are not absorbing the price of credits • The lost cost of carbon credits means it is cheaper to buy credits rather than to invest in green technology Carbon offsetting in action • • • • Shell pumps CO2 from an oil refinery in the Netherlands into 500 greenhouses growing fruit and veg.
initially singed up but withdrew following the election of GW Bush Many developing countries have signed up. windows. huge quantities of heat are lost through roofs. reliable and affordable heating CHP success in Denmark By 2005. but did not commit to actual figures The EU will not meet its target of 8% reduction Spain. instead of just 5% Energy use. Portugal and Ireland have no made progress Climate scientists believe that the Kyoto targets are too much low. annual household heating bills in Copenhagen were €1500 less than if oil had been used for heating • Between 1995 and 2000.74 | P a g e ○ USA won’t sign it as LEDC countries like China have greater leniency on emissions ○ The USA are aiming to reduce carbon intensity of its economy by having domestic policies in place to combat climate change Failure • • • • • The USA. doors and walls Combined Heat and Power in Copenhagen Uses a heat engine to simultaneously generate both electricity and useful heat • A CHP system uses a combination of: ○ Waste heat from electricity production ○ Surplus heat from waste incineration ○ Geothermal energy ○ Bio-fuels ○ Small amounts of fossil fuels • It supplies many cities (like Copenhagen) with clean. efficiency and conservation Up the Chimney 3 main ways in which amounts of energy in the UK are wasted: ○ Power Stations – waste 65% of generated heat which goes up the chimney or is lost when hot water is released into rivers ○ Transmission of electricity over a distance loses energy ○ At home. which produces 25% of global emissions. the cities annual CO2 emissions dropped from 3.5 million tonnes to 2. and a 60% cut is needed by industrialised nations.5 million • SO2 emissions have also been cut by 33% Use of nuclear energy • Brought about concern from people mainly due to the: • • • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .
75 | P a g e ○ Radioactivity from Uranium ○ Nuclear accidents ○ How to deal with nuclear waste • 1986 Chernobyl technological accident is what has made UK public deeply suspicious about nuclear energy Carbon Offsetting • • The act of mitigating (reducing) GHG emissions E. which absorb heat during warm spells and release it when cooler It has its own CHP plant. Asking people or companies to pay extra for air travel Renewable energy sources for the future Renewable energy is generated from resources which are naturally replenished and cannot run out (like fossil fuels). fed by waste wood from tree surgery that would otherwise become landfill Windows are double-glazed which cuts heat loss by 50% Loft and cavity wall insulation cuts heat lost via these routes by 33% • • • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . resulting in an inconsistent supply of energy Present designs of tidal energy do not produce a lot of electricity Building of large dams flood large areas and destructs habitats CO2 is released into the atmosphere when the material is burnt Tidal Hydroelectricity Biomass BedZED – Energy Conservation Project • BedZED housing in South London attempt to be carbon neutral by using heatefficient natural.g. Renewable energy Solar Geothermal Wind Wave Advantage Relatively maintenance free Running costs are very low Cost of the electricity it generates is falling Wave turbines are quiet and do not affect wildlife Rise and fall of the tide is constant and not weather dependent Rivers flow continuously and thus provides a constant source of energy Energy can be extracted from wastes Disadvantage Less available solar energy near the poles of the Earth Can only be used where the crust is thin and hot rocks are near the surface Winds are intermittent and don’t blow all the time Wave heights vary considerably. recycled or reclaimed materials.
CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . the money is repaid back by energy saved.76 | P a g e • • Low-energy lighting and energy-efficient appliances which also cut back on carbon emissions Although the above initially cost more.
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7. human security and social wellbeing.78 | P a g e SECTION 7 – THE CHALLENGE OF GLOBAL HAZARDS FOR THE FUTURE 1.1 The Enormity of the Challenge The enormity of the challenge • • Climate change has implications for economic growth. especially for the poorest of people The diagram below shows the vicious cycle of problems generated by climate change Water Shortages • • • Physical water scarcity: lack of available supplies to meet demand Economic water scarcity: lack of water because of poverty and poor governance Colombia and Bolivia: disappearance of glaciers means that people can no longer rely on glacial meltwater as a water source CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .
HOWEVER.79 | P a g e Case Study Case Study: Nicaragua’s Miskito Indians • • • • • • • • Climate change is having a devastating effect on the Miskito Indians They subsist on crops planted on a few hectares of land 1997. 60 bags of rice a hectare could be harvest In 2007.g. Climate) ○ Adequate food available but the community/individual is too poor to access it Impacts of global warming on food security • • • • Higher temperatures stress crops and reduce yields. healthy lifestyle Food insecurity results from: ○ A lack of available food due to physical factors (e. hurricanes and unseasonal flooding will increase The Miskito are isolated from modern farming techniques and hampered by poverty from years of economic neglect and discrimination. Food Insecurity • • Food security means populations having access to enough food for an active. only 7 bags of rice a hectare were harvest The effect of climate change is likely to hit indigenous communities the hardest Temperatures across central America are expected to rise by 1-3°C and rainfall will decrease by 25% by 2070 Droughts. they prolong growing seasons and allow a wider range of crops to be grown Higher concentrations of CO2 speeds plant growth and increases resilience to water stress Equatorial areas and East Africa will have more rainfall Higher temperatures can also promote the growth of crop pests and diseases CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .
and malnutrition is likely to get worse The Challenge • • • How countries cope with climate change will depend on the wealth Poverty leads to poor health.80 | P a g e • • • • In theory.2 – Tackling the Challenge Sustainable Development Sustainable development is ‘development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future to generations to meet their own needs. malnutrition and an inability to cope with extreme weather events These interconnecting factors are summarised by the poverty bomb: • Climate change is just one of the detonators 1.’ Green strategies • Tree planting – take in carbon dioxide. food production and thus food security should not be adversely affected by climate change Studies have shown that crop yields could drop by up to 10% for every 1°C temperature rise in some areas of Asia Subsistence farmers in Africa will be badly affected by drought and extreme events. a growing tree releases more CO2 than it absorbs CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . in the first 10 years of its life. However. at a global level.7. agriculture is adaptable to global warming and there are techniques that can overcome water stress Therefore.
schools and hospitals. businesses. radio and telecommunications to over 200 households in the remote areas of Mt.81 | P a g e Microhydro – Small scale hydroelectric scheme generating electricity from running water • Wind turbines – generate electricity for the national grid or isolated communities • Biomass – Plant material burned and used to generate electricity and heat. when in reality releasing large amounts of CO2 Renewable energy schemes examples/case studies Community Hydropower in Kenya 2 community hydroelectric schemes provide lighting. countries are not prohibited from deforestation. Oxfordshire • The following schemes have been implemented to lower the village’s carbon footprint: ○ Each road has waste champions who take surplus rubbish to a recycling centre ○ Information is circulated on the 10 most effective ways to reduce CO2 emissions ○ Green transport strategies have been introduced. shops. Kenya • It saves 42 tonnes of CO2 emissions each year Sagan Island Uses a standalone PV power plant that provides electricity to homes. The CO2 released is the same amount as was removed from the atmosphere during the plant’s lifetime • Geothermal – heat from the Earth is used to fuel power plants and heat water • Solar – PV panels convert the sun’s radiation into electricity • Tidal wave – generate electricity using tidal barrages or wave energy Under the Kyoto protocol. yet they can claim carbon credits for new planting. including car sharing and promotion of the use of the local bus ○ Cloth bags are available to cut down on plastic bags CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © . • Diesel-powered generators have been replaced by this scheme Community based solutions • Community-based solutions work well because they are ‘bottom up’ – developed by local people for local people instead of being imposed by the government • • • Community-based green strategies Wolvercote.
the UK has made huge investments in scrubbers for Chinese power stations • • CHRISTOPHER CARTWRIGHT © .82 | P a g e Energy Efficiency • Methods of increasing energy efficiency: ○ Remodelled factors with cleaner industrial processes and optimum energy use ○ Redesigned houses with modern boiler systems and full insulation ○ Green transport using green technology (hybrid) ○ Greener power stations with lower emissions The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) allow developed countries to sponsor GHG cutting projects in developing countries in exchange for carbon credits that can be used to meet their own emissions targets For example.
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