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# Superbowl XL Pool Analysis

Gameday: February 5, 2006 Detroit, Michigan Questions: hiram@stoopboy.com

The Superbowl Numbers  T eeh v b e 3 S p ro l a s l e s c 1 6 ( iy a’is #40 if you forgot your h r a e e n 9 u eb w g me p y d i e 9 7 t s e r a n h s Roman numerals)  T ie u ts o h q ae t… s –156 quarters of football –156 pairs of scores –312 individual digits that have occurred  No overtime periods have ever been played in a Superbowl game 1 .

8.8% 20% 0% 0. 7 would be likely last digits at any Frequency of Groups of Digits p it f g me on o a a … 100% 17. 5. 7 4. 3...5. 8..5..3% 80% There is a very significant There is a very significant difference between the five difference between the five “a e n mb r (..9) –83% to 17% (1. 2.. 3.8.Since most scoring occurs in increments of 3 or 7 –a key hypothesis would be that 0.2. 6 1. 9 All …historical Superbowl scores by quarter validate this theory 2 .) h v ” u es 03467 a dtefe“a enots” n h i hv a dtefe“a enots” n h v hv i v (1.0% 40% 63.) h v ” u es 03467 “a e n mb r (.2.9% 60% 100.9) –83% to 17% 18.

6% 2.2% 90 25.0% 20.6% 0.0% 15.3% 10.0% 80 # of Occurences (out of 312) 30.0% 70 19. z r” sahero in s a a n iiu l ii r s o u eb w s o “eo i this game Frequency of Last Digits 100 28.7% 15.0% % of Occurences Note: Based on quarterly scores of all previous Superbowl games (see appendix) Count % 3 .9% 60 50 40 10.6% 30 20 4.0% 5.0% 8.A fr sidvd a dgt f m S p ro l g .9% 2.8% 10 0 0 7 3 4 6 Digit 1 9 8 5 2 4.5% 2.

. 7-9 and converses (e.Looking at digit combinations.g. 7-9 and 9-7 have the same 9-7 have the same probability) probability) The 2004 Superbowl final score of 32-29 yielded a first time winning combination of 2-9/9-2 due to two failed and one successful 2-pt conversion attempts Legend: = Never occurred in Superbowl = Historical probability > 5% in Superbowl 4 .g. there are 40* pairs (of 100) that have NEVER occurred as a quarter-ending score in a Superbowl Note: ** 40 pairs is Note: 40 pairs is composed of 20 composed of 20 combinations and their combinations and their converses (e..

and of the 35 pairs that have occurred.8% 8.0% 12 10 8 4.8% 4.6% 1.0% # of Occurences (out of 156) 7.0% 3.2% 16 14 9.0% 12.These 100 pairs are actually 55 unique combinations of scores (i.7% 6.3% 2.0% 10.4% 5.5% 6 4 2 0 0-7 0-3 0-0 4-7 0-4 3-7 3-6 3-4 3-3 7-7 0-6 0-9 6-7 0-5 0-2 0-8 1-5 1-7 6-8 1-4 0-1 2-7 6-6 7-9 4-9 2-9 1-3 1-6 1-9 2-4 2-8 5-9 6-9 8-9 14. 0-3-7 again dominate Frequency of Score Pairs 20 18 12.e.9% 1. 9-5 and 5-9 would count as one pair).6% 0.0% 6..0% 3.2% 2.0% 0.0% Score Pair Occurences % 1-8 % of Occurences 5 .

Smi rorc n y as ti y a’ p o h s2 p i (r o e ) that i l t e e t e r.hs e r o l a 5 ar o b x s a s s have a historical probability of greater than 2.5% in Superbowls = Historical probability > 5% in Superbowls 6 .5% of occurring Actual 2006 Actual 2006 Grid !! Grid Legend: = Has Never occurred in a Superbowl = Historical probability > 2.

niquette.9 oa p i s c rd ho g h e r u eb w… n s s 1. and missed extra points will yield our pairs –here is some additional data to help  T eeh v b e 17 6ttl o t soe tru htiy a’S p ro l h r a e e n .At this point we are all trying to determine what combination of safeties. very rare –there is about a 94% success rate –Touchdowns outpace field goals by a ratio of more than 2-to-1 Source: Paul Niquette (www. 2-point conversions.272 Points 199 Extra Points 199 Points 103 Field Goals 309 Points 5 Safeties 10 Points 3 2-Point Conv.com) l Hs u eb w a a s s c 2 0 p s ’S p ro l n l i i e 0 5 u ys n Note: Scoring components are within +/.2% of actuals –had to estimate some 7 . 6 Points  …i ms on t: t t oe e –Safeties and 2-point conversions are very. very rare –less than 1% of scoring –Missed extra points are very.796 Total Points 212 Touchdowns 1.

it would also help to use a full season of scores as a sample  For the 2002-2003 regular season.049 quarters played  I p o tr .Since Superbowls only represent a very small portion of games.h me n … n o l ms ti a s e s –1.049 pairs of scores –2.024 regulation quarters played plus 25 games went into overtime. for a grand total of 1.098 individual digits that occurred  The post-season was not included in the analysis 8 . there were 32 NFL teams that played 16 games a h e c… –256 games played –1.

2% 5.098) 30.3% % of Occurences Rank order for digits Rank order for digits is same as is same as Superbowl except for Superbowl except for swap swap of 1 and 6 of 1 and 6 15.5% 300 12.9% 600 23.8% 0 0 7 3 4 1 Digit Count % 6 9 8 5 2 2.0% 400 15.0% 200 6.0% 6.9% 1.0% # of Occurences (out of 2.2% 0.0% 9 .5% 100 2.Single Digit Analysis revealed similar results to the Superbowls… Frequency of Last Digits 700 27.0% 500 20.0% 10.0% 25.7% 1.

6% 4.…as did the Combination Analysis.0% 1.7% 14. with 0-3-7 displaying an even srn e tn e c … t g re d n y o Frequency of Score Pairs 160 14.3% 2.4% 3.0% # of Occurences (out of 1.5% 2.8% 8.6% 1.049 pairs) are not 1.049 pairs) are not shown on chart shown on chart 10.049) 120 9.3% 2.0% 1.0% 20 8.2% 2.4% 2.0% .5% 60 6.6% 3.0% 5.0% 140 12.3% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 6.0% 4.9% 80 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% Score Pair Occurences % 7-9 % of Occurences 10 100 Pairs with a probability Pairs with a probability of less than 1% (9 or of less than 1% (9 or fewer occurrences in fewer occurrences in 1.0% 0 0-7 0-3 0-0 3-7 0-4 7-7 4-7 3-4 1-7 0-6 3-3 3-6 4-4 6-7 1-4 4-6 1-3 0-1 7-8 0-9 3-9 5-7 0.7% 40 3.

and 8-2 are very bad draws are very bad draws to say the least! to say the least! 8.5% 0.6% 2. and 8-2 2-2.0% 0.3% 3. 2-8.3% 0.0% 2.4% 0.8% 1.3% 2.2% 0.4% 3.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.000 pairs 4 5 6 7 6.3% 0.3% 1.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 3 9.3% 0.7% 14.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% 7 14.3% 1.9% 0.2% 6.9% 9 1.8% 0.4% 0.6% 2.9% 1 1.0% 0.7% 3.6% 0.5% 4. 2-8.7% 1.2% 2.2% 0.5% 0.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 6 3.2% 0.0% 1 2 3 1.0% 0.5% 2.6% 1.3% 0.8% 4 6.0% 4.1% 2.…but the larger sample does prove that almost all pairs can really occur.4% 9.7% 8 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.4% 3.7% 0.1% 0.3% 6.0% 0.6% 0.6% 2.1% 1.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% Legend: = Never occurred in 2002-03 Season Game = Occurred 1 time in 2002-03 Season Game = Historical probability > 5% in 2002-03 8 9 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 5.8% 0.3% 0. and there are only a handful of “ uo t ls r” a tmai o es c 0 0 2-2.0% 5 0.5% 2 0.8% 0.2% 11 .0% 1.1% 0. albeit infrequently.0% 0.3% 0.4% 1.1% 0.0% Note: Based on the 2002-2003 sample of over 1.8% 0.5% 2.7% 3.

Good Luck! 12 .

28. 1976 Dallas Pittsburgh Jan. 2004 XXXVII Jan. 30. 1979 Pittsburgh Dallas Jan. 1978 Dallas Denver Jan. 1975 Pittsburgh Minnesota Jan. 14. 30. 1972 Dallas Miami Jan. 2001 XXXIV Jan. 12. 1967 KC Green Bay 1Q 7 7 10 0 0 0 7 7 0 0 0 14 7 0 3 0 0 3 0 3 0 0 3 0 0 7 2Q 14 7 3 0 16 0 3 0 2 0 0 3 7 0 7 3 6 10 0 13 7 0 13 7 10 7 3Q 0 3 7 10 3 7 0 0 7 0 0 7 0 0 7 0 0 0 7 7 6 0 10 0 0 14 4Q Final 35 14 14 31 7 27 10 0 32 13 14 7 17 7 14 21 7 16 6 6 7 7 24 0 14 0 7 7 7 24 3 0 16 10 13 0 7 0 0 23 3 16 7 7 33 7 14 7 10 0 35 7 13 . 1982 San Francisco Cincinnati Jan. 12. 9. 27. Louis Tennessee Denver Atlanta Green Bay Denver New England Green Bay Dallas Pittsburgh San Diego San Francisco Dallas Buffalo Buffalo Dallas 1Q 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 0 7 0 3 0 7 3 7 7 14 10 10 0 7 14 6 3 7 14 2Q 7 7 10 14 0 17 0 14 3 0 6 0 10 3 7 10 0 17 3 7 3 14 0 10 3 14 3Q 7 7 0 0 6 14 0 3 14 7 7 6 0 0 3 7 7 8 7 0 8 14 14 0 7 3 4Q Final 24 10 21 7 29 19 32 18 21 12 48 14 17 14 3 20 10 34 7 0 23 7 10 16 17 34 19 13 24 7 31 7 21 0 35 0 27 7 17 10 26 8 7 49 10 30 13 0 17 0 21 52 # XXVI XXV XXIV XXIII XXII XXI XX XIX XVIII XVII XVI XV XIV XXVIII Jan. 1990 San Francisco Denver Jan. 25.Appendix -. 1996 Jan. 22. 17. 2000 XXXIII Jan. 26. 14. 28. 1983 Miami Washington Jan. 24. 1994 XXVII Jan. 1993 Date Team Jan. 26. 11. 2003 XXXVI Feb. 31. 1985 Miami San Francisco Jan. 3. 1997 Jan. 31. 30. 26. 1984 Washington Raiders Jan. 1970 Minnesota KC Jan. 16. 20. 1999 XXXII XXXI XXX XXIX Jan. 1989 Cincinnati San Francisco Jan. 1977 Oakland Minnesota Jan. 1998 Jan. 15. 18. 2005 XXXVIII Feb. 1995 Team New England Philadelphia Carolina New England Oakland Tampa Bay St. 25. 1980 Rams Pittsburgh 1Q 0 0 3 3 13 3 0 3 0 10 10 7 13 3 10 7 0 7 7 0 7 0 14 0 7 3 2Q 17 0 9 7 14 0 3 0 35 0 0 2 10 0 6 21 3 14 10 10 13 0 0 3 6 7 3Q 14 10 0 7 14 7 10 3 0 0 0 17 21 0 0 10 6 14 0 3 0 7 10 0 6 7 4Q Final 37 6 24 14 19 7 20 3 55 14 10 0 16 3 14 20 42 7 0 10 20 10 39 13 2 46 10 7 0 16 38 0 9 0 38 3 17 0 27 14 26 6 21 14 27 3 7 10 19 0 14 31 # XIII XII XI X IX VIII VII VI V IV III II I Date Team Jan. 1974 Minnesota Miami Jan. 1981 Oakland Philadelphia Jan. 22.Superbowl Data 1967-2005 # Date XXXIX Feb. 1973 Miami Washington Jan. 6. 21. 2002 XXXV Jan. 25. 20. 26. 1987 Denver Giants Jan. 1969 NY Jets Baltimore Jan. 31. 13. 29. Louis New England Baltimore NY Giants St. 1988 Washington Denver Jan. 1. 1992 Washington Buffalo Jan. 28. 1991 Buffalo Giants Jan. 1968 Green Bay Oakland Jan. 15. 1971 Baltimore Dallas Jan. 1986 Chicago New England Jan.