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POPULATION TRENDS IN CHINA SL TYPE II

Aim: In this task, you will investigate different functions that best model the population of China from 1950 to 1995.

The following table shows the population of China from 1950 to 1995.
Year Population in Millions 1950 554.8 1955 609.0 1960 657.5 1965 729.2 1970 830.7 1975 927.8 1980 998.9 1985 1070.0 1990 1155.3 1995 1220.5

(a) Define all relevant variables and parameters clearly. Variables: Parameters: (b) Use technology to plot the data points from the above table on a graph.

Population versus time 1950 to 1995
1400 1200 P / millions 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 10 20 t / years 30 40 50

(c) Comment on any apparent trends shown in the graph. (Discuss slope plus shape of graph)

(d) What types of functions could model the behaviour of the graph? Explain your choices. Linear, Polynomial, trig function «. Discuss «. (e) Analytically develop one model function that fits the data points on your graph. Do not use regression!!!

To develop a polynomial function « Start with P = t3

(h) Use technology to estimate and interpret K.5)3 + 860 Then apply horizontal and vertical dilations to obtain « P = a(bt +c)3 + d To develop a sine curve « y = a sin (bx + c) + d (f) On a new set of axes. Chart Title 1400 1200 1000 Axis Title 800 600 400 200 0 0 10 20 Axis Title 30 40 50 (g) Comment on how well your model fits the original data. Estimate : Can use regression «.5)3 P = (t -22. L and M are parameters. P = (t -22. Interpret : What effect do they have on the function « illustrate ! (i) Construct the researcher¶s model using your estimates. . Revise your model if necessary.Horizontal translation 22. L and M. plot your model and the original data.5 years to the right «. P at time t can be modelled by  where K. Vertical translation up 860 «. « a table of values. Give general comments « plus R2 « coefficient of correlation «now you can use Regression A researcher suggests that the population.

7 1997 1236. original data b. slopes (l) Discuss the implications of each of these models in terms of population growth for China in the future.1 1992 1171.3 2000 1267.4 2003 1292. Talk about specific regions. so that it applies to all the given data from 1950 to 2008.) .use an analytical approach again « (o) Comment on how well your modified model fits all the data.( consider domain and range. logistic model «.7 (m) Comment on how well each of the models above fit the IMF data for the years 1983±2008. plot the researcher¶s model and the original data. Then verbal description « (n) Modify the model that best fits the IMF data. graph (k) Comment on how well this model fits the original data.(j) On a new set of axes. Logistic is «««. « sine curve is «««.6 2008 1327. Do not use regression «. published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Here are additional data on population trends in China from the 2008 World Economic Outlook. One Graph with a. Be specific about which part of the graph fits better « « You need a conclusion !!! «. sine model c.3 2005 1307. Year Population in Millions 1983 1030.