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(July 2011) Global population will reach 7 billion later in 2011, just 12 years after reaching 6 billion in 1999. Today's world population is double the population in 1967. But while the overall growth rate has slowed, the population is still growing, and growth rates in some countries show little if any decline. The Population Reference Bureau's 2011 World Population Data Sheet and its summary report offer detailed information on 18 population, health, and environment indicators for more than 200 countries. "Even though the annual population growth rate has declined to 1.2 percent per year, world population grows by about 83 million annually," says Wendy Baldwin, PRB's president. "If the late 1960s population growth rate of 2.1 percentthe highest in historyhad held steady, world population would have grown by 117 million annually, and todays population would have been 8.6 billion." "The world added the sixth billion and the seventh billion in a record 12 years for each, says Carl Haub, PRB's senior demographer and co-author of this year's data sheet. "The eighth billion may also take about 12 years, but only if birth rates in all developing countries follow projections that assume a smooth decline to two children or fewer." Declines in birth rates have been virtually universal across countries, but the pattern of decline has varied widely. In some countries such as Germany, Russia, and Taiwan, birth rates have fallen far below two children. In other countries such as Bangladesh, birth rates have decreased and most families have between two and three children. In still other countries, birth rates remain high; for example, in Niger, seven children per woman continues to be the norm. The 2011 World Population Data Sheet provides up-to-date demographic, health, and environment data for all the countries and major regions of the world. It shows just how stark the contrasts are between rich and poor countries, as illustrated by the table with data from Italy and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Even though the DRC and Italy have almost the same population size today, the DRC is projected to more than double its population from 68 million today to 149 million in 2050. Italy's population will likely grow very slowly from 61 million to 62 million over that same time. The cause of these enormous differences is lifetime births per woman and the share of the population in their childbearing years.

Key Demographic Indicators, 2011

Population mid-2011 Population 2050 (projected) Percent of population below age 15 Percent of population ages 65+ Lifetime births per woman Annual births Annual deaths Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) Annual infant deaths 340,000 Gross national income per capita, 2009 $300

Congo, Dem. Rep. 68 million 149 million 46% 3% 6.1 3,050,000 1,140,000 111

Italy 61 million 62 million 14% 20% 1.4 560,000 590,000 3.7 2,000 $31,870


HIV/AIDS prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa declined by 15 percent among adults ages 15 to 49from 5.9 percent in 2001 to 5.0 percent in 2009. But prevalence among adults remains high in many countries24.8 percent in Botswana and 25.9 percent in Swaziland. Nearly half the world (48 percent) lives in poverty on less than the equivalent of US$2 per day, including 80 percent of people in the Democratic Republic of Congo, 76 percent in India, 65 percent in Uganda, and 61 percent in Pakistan. Virtually all population growth is concentrated in the world's poorest countries, making it difficult to lift large numbers of people out of poverty. Worldwide, women now average 2.5 children during their lifetimes and 4.5 in the poorest countries. Lifetime fertility is highest in sub-Saharan Africa at 5.2 children per woman. In the developed countries, women average 1.7 children. The United States is one exception among high-income countries, with a total fertility rate of 2.0 children per woman. The U.S. population increased by almost 10 percent between 2000 and 2010, but growth patterns varied widely. States in the South and the West grew the fastest, while many rural areas lost population, including much of the Great Plains and northern and central Appalachia.

Uncovering the Links Between Population and Economic Development at the PopPov Research Conference
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January 18th, 2012 |

Posted in Income/Poverty, PRB News, Reproductive Health

by Eric Zuehlke, web communications manager This week, a bunch of us from PRB are in Accra, Ghana for the 6th Annual Research Conference on Population, Reproductive Health, and Economic Development as part of the PopPov Research Network. The Population and Poverty Research Network (PopPov) was created in 2005, when the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation formed partnerships with funding agencies and program implementers, bringing together researchers from leading higher education institutions worldwide. PopPovs goal is to provide clear evidence that investing in reproductive health can provide economic benefits at both the household and country level, and how to reach policymakers and donors with these messages. This week, conference participants will present their ongoing and completed research on population, reproductive health, and economic development; identify gaps in evidence and methods that inhibit the development of sound policies on population and economic development; and discuss examples of the influence of research on policies and how to communicate research findings to policymakers. Were honored to be co-hosting the conference with the University of Ghana. Fred Sai, Former Presidential Advisor on Reproductive Health and HIV/AIDS, will give the keynote address tomorrow. Im excited to hear his perspective on the progress and challenges since the International Conference on Population and Development (the Cairo conference) in 1994. (Dr. Sai was the chair of the conferences Main Committee.) Since then, the focus of global family planning efforts has shifted to womens rights and empowerment, for women to be able to decide the family size they desire and have control over their fertility. Donor funding and programming for family planning is increasing, but the links to economic development is not as clear. And with many other public health and development issues competing for donor and policy attention, strong evidence is needed. I expect Dr. Sai, and the conference in general, to discuss many of these issues. Throughout the week, Ill be blogging from Accra and interviewing researchers on various population and economic issues and their implications for public policy. Stay tuned for more posts from Accra and quite a few videos on the PRB site over the coming weeks. Want to learn more about the conference? Visit the PopPov website for the agenda, conference paper abstracts, and more.

Cameroon 2011 Demographic and Health Survey Shows Stalled Fertility Decline, Improving Health Indicators
No Comments | Posted in Health, Population Basics, Reproductive Health

December 12th, 2011

by Carl Haub, senior demographer The Cameroon 2011 Demographic and Health Survey Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey is the fourth DHS in a series that began in 1991. As so often observed in subSaharan countries, the birth rate decline has stalled at a high level and, in Cameroons case, for quite some time. The survey interviewed 15,426 women ages 15 to 49 and 7,191 men ages 15 to 59 from January to August, 2011. The total fertility rate (TFR the average number of children would bear in her lifetime if the birth rate of a particular year were to remain constant) obtained in the survey was 5.1 for the three-year period preceding the survey. For urban women, the TFR was 4.0 and, for rural women, who were a 46.1 percent of the sample, 6.4. The TFR in the 2010 DHS was actually slightly higher than that obtained in the 2004 survey, when it was 5.0 nationally, and 6.1 for rural women while that of urban women remained unchanged. TFR decline came to an end in Cameroon from 1998 onwards as can easily be seen in the figure below. In the survey, 49.3 percent of women with five living children said they did not wish to have any additional children and 64.9 percent of those with six or more children also said that they wished to cease childbearing. Of those two groups, the percentage who declared themselves to be sterile or who were sterilized was 5.1 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively.

In the survey, 23.4 percent of currently married women said that they were using some form of family planning, with 14.4 percent using a modern method. Use of the male condom accounted for more than half of modern use at 7.6 percent, followed by 3 percent using injectables, and 1.9 percent using the contraceptive pill. Reported contraceptive use was similar to that in the 2004 DHS, which was 26 percent for all methods and 12.5 percent for modern methods. (In the 2007 MICS, contraceptive use was reported as 39.7 percent for all methods and 17.6 for modern methods. TFR data were not collected.) Read the rest of this entry

Recession Not So NEET for Young Adults in U.S.

1 Comment | Posted in Marriage/Family, Youth

December 9th, 2011

by Mark Mather, associate vice president, Domestic Programs In the U.K., they are called NEETS, people who are Not in Employment, Education, or Training. In Spain and Mexico, they have been called Generation Neither-Nor. We have them in the United States too, and their numbers have increased since the onset of the recessionespecially among men. A new report by PRB shows that the percent of young men ages 25 to 34 who are neither working nor attending school increased sharply between 2007 and 2010, from 14 percent to 19 percent. During the same period, the share of women who were not working and not in school remained steady at 26 percent. Part of this gender difference can be explained by womens earlier age at marriage, compared with men. Percent Distribution of Young Adults Ages 25-34 by School Enrollment and Employment Status, 2007 and 2010 Men (%) Women (%) 2007 2010 2007 2010 8 3 75 14 8 4 69 19 10 4 61 26 10 5 58 26

School Enrollment, Employment Status In school, working In school, not working Not in school, working Not in school, not working

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey.

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