Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Market
Status
Issue.
9
December
2011
page 2
Having experienced healthy growth during 2011, the femtocell market is now demonstrating it can scale with multiple deployments that reach well into 100s of thousand units, including Vodafone, Sprint, AT&T, Softbank and SFR.
The majority of Tier-1 mobile operators worldwide have expressed interest in small cells, particularly for capacity driven networks including LTE.
8 of the top 10 mobile operator groups (by revenue) now offer femtocell services, including AT&T, France Telecom/Orange, Telefonica, T-Mobile/Deutsche Telecom and Vodafone amongst others.
As of December 2011, there are 37 commercial services (from 31 in June 2011) and a total of 46 deployment commitments (compared to 43 in June 2011). As of December 2011, there have been 7 new operator deployments since June 2011.
According to an Informa survey that took place during Q2 2011, 60% of operators believe that small cells will be more important than macrocells for an effective LTE deployment strategy.
The Femto Forum has grown to include 66 mobile operators representing 1.99 billion mobile subscribers worldwide, across multiple wireless technologies (WiMAX, UMTS and CDMA) and account for 34% of total mobile subscribers worldwide plus 70 vendors, illustrating that the femtocell ecosystem is experiencing healthy growth.
The CDMA femtocell market is also growing with Verizon Wireless and Sprint having launched enterprise femtocells during Q4 2011 and the Femto Forum publishing a best practice guide for deploying CDMA femtocells in cooperation with 3GPP2.
Important progress has been made in the evolution of femtocell chipsets with new launches from Cavium, Freescale, Qualcomm and Texas Instruments. These join existing chipset vendors Broadcom, DesignArt, Picochip and Mindspeed.
Femtocell-specific 3GPP, 3GPP2 and WiMAX standards have been completed, signalling that femtocell technology has been ratified by the highest profile standardisation bodies worldwide.
page 3
Operator
Aspect
The
femtocell
market
continues
to
experience
a
flurry
of
activity,
including
further
operator
launches
and
commitments
and
major
milestones,
including
SFRs
free
femtocell
offering.
Femtocell
interest
in
the
mobile
operator
community
continues
to
grow,
while
deployments
increased
to
37
in
24
countries
(from
36
in
24
countries)
during
Q4
2011.
Several
operators
have
now
reported
deployments
with
100s
of
thousands
of
femtocells
including:
Sprint
(US)
has
reported
more
than
500K
units
Both
Softbank
and
SFR
have
reported
more
than
100K
units
Vodafone
having
reported
femtocell
registered
users
in
the
hundreds
of
thousands
in
the
UK
Although
AT&T
has
not
reported
their
numbers
directly,
analyst
estimates
also
put
this
at
over
500K
units
Femto
Forum
operator
members
currently
represent
more
than
2
billion
mobile
subscribers
worldwide,
across
multiple
wireless
technologies
(WiMAX,
UMTS
and
CDMA)
and
account
for
34%
of
total
mobile
subscribers
worldwide.
Figure
1
illustrates
operator
members
in
the
Femto
Forum.
For
updated
information
on
the
Femto
Forum
members
and
their
activities,
please
see
http://www.femtoforum.org/femto/membership.
Figure
1:
Femto
Forum
mobile
operator
members
Source:
Femto
Forum
page 4
Example
Pricing
$4.99
per
month
($10
for
unlimited
calling,
$20
for
family
plans)
Capabilities
Up
to
6
3G
users
Launch
date
September
2007
USA
http://bit.ly/sprint_us Consumer: Home Zone (UMTS) $32.1 per month Up to 4 3G (postpaid) users November 2008
Singapore
http://bit.ly/starhub_singapore Consumer and Enteprise: $249.99 Network Extender Up to 3 2G 1xRTT users January 2009
USA
http://bit.ly/verizon_us Consumer: Sure Signal (UMTS/HSPA) Various options 50 upfront Free for >45 contracts Up to 4 3G users July 2009 (Access Gateway) Rebranded January 2010
UK
USA
France http://bit.ly/sfr_france
page 5
Japan
Up to 4 3G users
November 2009
http://bit.ly/docomo_japan Consumer: 3G Inn (UMTS/HSPA) FAP cost: CNY 1,200 Monthly fee: CNY 10
Up to 4 3G users
November 2009
Portugal
Up to 4 3G users
December 2009
http://bit.ly/optimus_portugal Consumer: CallZone (WCDMA) Access point: SING$323 Monthly charge: SING$53.50 Up to 4 3G users January 2010
10
Singapore
http://bit.ly/singtel_singapore Consumer: Voz y Datos Premium Oficina (WCDMA) Consumer: Femtocell service (WCDMA) Public: Femtocell service in public areas (WCDMA)
11
Spain
15 per month
Up to 4 3G users
June 2010
http://bit.ly/vodafone_spain
Free
of
charge
Up
to
4
3G
users
June
2010
12
Japan
13
Qatar
Metro coverage
Up to 4 3G users
http://bit.ly/vodafone_qatar
Consumer:
au
Femtocell
(CDMA2000
EV- DO)
Free
of
charge
(in
coverage
deadspots)
Up
to
4
3G
users
July
2010
14
Japan http://bit.ly/KDDI_japan
15
Greece
Free of charge (>40 monthly contract. 75 (<40 monthly) 150 retail price
Up to 4 3G users
July 2010
http://bit.ly/vodafone_greece Consumer: Mi Cobertura Movil 9/month service charge Requires 3MB DSL service from Movistar
16
Spain
Up to 4 3G users
August 2010
http://bit.ly/movistar_spain
page 6
17
United Kingdom
October 2010
http://bit.ly/t-mobile_UK Consumer: Femtocell Unite Femtocell tariff addons: Unilimited 3G voice, network, Internet.
18
Up to 4 3G users
November 2010
Moldova
http://bit.ly/moldtelecom Public: Femtocells for data offload Deployed in public areas Up to 4 3G users December 2010
19
South Korea
http://bit.ly/sktelecom_kr
20
New
Zealand
http://bit.ly/vodafone_nz
January 2011
21
Ireland
Up to 4 3G users
February 2011
http://bit.ly/vodafone_ireland
22
Norway
NOK 99
Up to 4 3G users
February 2011
http://bit.ly/network_norway
23
Thailand http://bit.ly/tot_thailand
March 2011
24
Australia http://bit.ly/optus_au
Consumer: Homezone
Up to 4 users
April 2011
25
Australia
Unknown
May 2011
http://bit.ly/vodafone_au
26
Russia http://bit.ly/megafon_ru
Consumer: Minicells
Free
Up to 4 users
May 2011
27
Italy http://bit.ly/vodafone_it
May 2011
page 7
28
Hungary http://bit.ly/vodafone_hg
May 2011
29
France http://bit.ly/orange_fr
Up to 4 users
May 2011
30
Romania http://bit.ly/orange_ro
Up to 16 users
May 2011
31
Russia http://bit.ly/mts_ru
Unknown
Up to 4 users
May 2011
32
Up to 4 users
July 2011
33
Enterprise
Russia
http://bit.ly/beeline_ru
Unknown
Up to 8 users
August 2011
34
Netherlands http://bit.ly/vodafone_nl
Unknown
Up to 4 users
October 2011
35
Greece http://bit.ly/cosmote_gr
Up to 4 users
October 2011
36
Unknown
Romania
Unknown
Unknown
Unknown
37
United States
Consumer: Homecell
Up to 4 users
December 2011
http://bit.ly/mosaic_us
Source:
Informa
Telecoms
&
Media
page 8
There
are
several
other
operators
that
have
expressed
interest
in
past
femtocell
trials
and
have
announced
their
plans
to
launch
femtocell
services
in
the
future,
including
Free
in
France
who
aims
to
introduce
femtocells
in
a
home
gateway
product
during
2012.
Mosaic
Telecoms
and
Celcoms
commitments
are
significant
in
being
the
first
instances
of
smaller
operators
committing
to
femtocells,
showing
that
the
femtocell
business
case
also
benefits
smaller
operators.
Following
after
these
two
regional
operators,
Moldtelecom
is
the
latest
operator
to
offer
femtocells,
confirming
that
the
business
case
for
smaller
operators
is
positive.
Bouygues
Telecom
has
also
expressed
that
femtocells
will
help
to
expand
indoor
coverage
with
LTE
networks.
Table
2
below
presents
a
summary
of
deployment
commitments
expressed
publicly.
Table
2:
Femtocell
deployment
commitments
Operator
Details
Expects
to
include
femtocells
in
home
gateway
during
2012
France
Taiwan
Intention
to
deploy
femtocells
after
regulatory
approval.
All
three
operators
in
Taiwan
report
that
they
will
offer
femtocell
services
with
Taiwan
subsidies.
Taiwan
Intention
to
deploy
femtocells
during
2011
to
bridge
fixed
and
mobile
services
United
Arab
Emirates USA
Intention to deploy femtocell services. Intention to deploy femtocells for consumer services. Femtocell service BoostBox for residential and enterprise now listed on website as pre-launch. Link Intention to deploy femtocell services for consumer and enterprise customers.
United Kingdom
Kuwait
page 9
Bouygues
CEO
has
claimed
that
femtocells
will
help
the
operator
to
improve
indoor
coverage
for
LTE
networks
France
The
following
chart
illustrates
a
historical
representation
of
deployments
and
commitments,
both
of
which
have
increased
more
than
200%
within
a
year,
while
there
have
been
6
operator
deployment
announcements
in
the
last
half-year
alone
and
18
similar
announcements
in
2011
so
far.
Figure
2:
Historical
femtocell
service
deployments
and
commitments
Source:
Informa
Telecoms
&
Media
Operators continue to identify a number of major user segments for femtocell and exciting service scenarios. All femtocell deployments had previously been focused on consumer deployment, so it is significant to see that several operators have now commercialised a femtocell service specific to enterprises. Enterprise only
page 10
femtocell
deployments
are
starting
to
accelerate
compared
with
previous
quarters.
Beeline
(Russia)
and
Vodafone
(Netherlands)
have
launched
enterprise
only
femtocell
services
during
Q3
2011.
Additional
segmentation
is
being
considered,
including
open
access,
metro
and
rural
applications.
The
following
table
summarizes
femtocell
offerings
segmented
according
to
target
group.
Table
3:
Femtocell
deployment
segmentation
according
to
target
group
Number of deployments 20 6 6 3 1
Examples Vodafone UK, AT&T, Cosmote T-Mobile UK, Network Norway, Orange France Vodafone NZ, Verizon Wireless, Sprint Vodafone Qatar, SK Telecom, TOT Thailand Softbank (using satellite backhaul)
From
a
regional
perspective,
the
distribution
of
femtocell
service
deployments
is
expanding
year
on
year
in
all
regions.
As
of
Q3
2011,
no
next-generation
(WiMAX
or
LTE)
femtocell
services
have
been
deployed,
but
Tier-1
mobile
operators
have
expressed
the
view
that
LTE
and
subsequent
high-capacity
air
interfaces
are
most
likely
to
be
deployed
through
hierarchical
cell
structures,
including
femtocells.
The
publication
of
the
3GPP
and
WiMAX
Forum
standards
for
LTE
and
WiMAX
femtocells
respectively
is
a
key-enabling
factor
towards
this.
Table
4:
Commercial
service
launches
by
Geography
and
Technology
Pricing
models
As
the
femtocell
market
evolves,
a
variety
of
pricing
models
have
surfaced,
illustrating
that
mobile
operators
are
active
in
assessing
the
business
case
of
femtocells
and
applying
it
to
their
regional
environment.
The
following
table
illustrates
a
selection
of
pricing
models
tied
to
femtocells,
for
both
consumer
and
enterprise
markets.
page 11
Market
Consumer
Enterprise
Pricing model Addons for unlimited calling Free femtocell Low upfront fee High upfront fee Monthly fee High upfront fee
Deployment examples MoldTelecom, Sprint, Optus Softbank, Vodafone (GR), SFR Vodafone (UK) Vodafone (IT, HU), Verizon Sprint, Movistar, NTT DoCoMo All operators
The majority of consumer femtocell services rely on a low upfront fee. On the other hand, enterprise deployments are subject to high costs (e.g. Orange France charges an upfront fee of 1100 and 70 per month for an enterprise femtocell) but these costs are justifiable since femtocells are operator installed and technicians perform on site visits and surveys to select the best location for installing the femtocells. In addition, enterprise femtocells are bigger units compared to consumer units which may also increase the cost considerably. Notable examples are Optus, Mold Telecom and Sprint, who are offering bundles that can be applied to their femtocell services to offer unlimited voice, data or messaging in return for a monthly fee. A major trend is now free femtocells with Softbank, Vodafone and Cosmote in Greece and SFR now offering the FAPs for free. SFRs example is notable, which does not require customers to fulfill ARPU requirements to qualify for a free femtocell.
Trial
Status
Trial
activity
has
been
very
healthy
during
2009
and
2010
and
has
created
a
good
pipeline
for
deployments
during
2010
and
2011.
Although
the
majority
of
trials
remain
behind
closed
doors
and
no
public
announcements
are
made,
the
increase
in
announcements
shows
a
healthy
growth
in
the
femtocell
market.
According
to
Informas
calculations,
the
number
of
trials
that
are
taking
place
during
Q3
2011
are
more
than
50.
Competitive
landscape
Several
markets
across
the
globe
are
now
subject
to
femtocell
competition,
where
more
than
one
mobile
operator
have
launched
femtocells
to
address
competition.
The
following
map
illustrates
the
state
of
the
femtocell
market
in
the
global
landscape.
page 12
Source:
Informa
Telecoms
&
Media
There
are
68
vendors
in
this
ecosystem
today
focusing
on
products
and
services
in
the
emerging
femtocell
marketplace.
There
are
currently
8
providers
of
End-to-End
and
System
Integration
worldwide
and
more
than
23
FAP
providers
covering
most
licensed
spectrum
types;
their
number
is
increasing
rapidly
as
component
manufacturers
are
introducing
flexible
reference
platforms
for
femtocell
access
points.
There
are
more
than
23
equipment
providers
providing
core
network
components
that
can
support
femtocell
services
and
in
excess
of
17
component,
software
and
tools
vendors
providing
a
health
supply
to
various
parts
of
the
solution
space.
All
major
infrastructure
vendors
have
now
joined
the
Femto
Forum
and
there
are
several
smaller
companies
targeting
smaller,
specialist
segments,
including
test
and
certification,
femtocell
specific
silicon
and
core
network
components.
Figure
4:
Femtocell
ecosystem
End$to$end$$ system$providers$
Network$$ Elements$
Other$ enablers$
Products$
Components$ and$So6ware$
Source:
Femto
Forum
page 14
23" 17"
23"
20"
15"
11"
10"
8"
5"
0" End"to"End" solu.ons" Components"and" So5ware" Femto"Access" Points" Networking" elements" Other"enablers"
page 15
Market
Forecasts
Informa
Telecoms
&
Media
expects
the
femtocell
market
to
experience
significant
growth
over
the
next
few
years,
reaching
just
under
48
million
femtocell
access
points
(FAP)
in
the
market
by
2014.
The
following
chart
illustrates
Informas
forecasts
(June
2011)
for
femtocell
access
point
shipments.
Figure
6:
Femtocell
access
point
forecasts
!60!!
Femtocell(access(points(in(market((millions)(
!50!!
!40!!
!30!!
!20!!
!10!!
In addition, many industry analysts who cover a number of aspects of the femtocell ecosystem have begun to track and forecast the progress of the femtocell market. The following table provides a summary of publicly announced statements, sorted by reverse chronological order. The table is followed by more information regarding each statement: Mobile Experts published a report on small cell backhaul, claiming that more than 1.8 million small cell wireless backhaul unit shipments during 2016. (Mobile Experts October 2011)
page 16
IDate estimates that worldwide femtocell access point market will reach a cumulative total of 39.4 million deployed units by 2015, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 71% between 2011 and 2015. (IDate September 2011)
Infonetics anticipates that femtocells will gain mass-scale traction in 2012, at which point the year-over- year unit growth rate will jump to over 100%, and will stay at triple-digit levels in 2013. (Infonetics September 2011)
ABI Research estimates that Enterprise femtocells are to make up 36% of shipments by 2016 which relates to 50% of security gateway revenues (ABI Research August 2011)
Infonetics estimates that total global revenue from femtocells used in consumer, enterprise, rural and public spaces grew 45% during the past 4 quarters. (Infonetics June 2011).
Visiongain expects femtocell revenues will reach US $27 Billion in 2016 and that femtocells have entered into the growth stage of their lifecycle during 2011 (Visiongain May 2011).
Juniper Research predicts that Wi-Fi and femtocell networks will play a significant role in easing data traffic by carrying 63 percent of data traffic, or almost 9,000 petabytes by 2015 (Juniper Research April 2011).
Infonetics Research predicts that rapid acceleration in the market will happen during 2012, when femtocell shipments should exceed 5 million worldwide, driven by a diversification from the consumer and enterprise segments to rural and public spaces. (Infonetics Research March 2011).
Cisco expects that by 2015, over 800 million terabytes of mobile data traffic will be offloaded to the fixed network by means of dual-mode devices and femtocells. Without dual-mode and femtocell offload of smartphone and tablet traffic, total mobile data traffic would reach 7.1 exabytes per month in 2015, growing at a CAGR of 95 percent. (Cisco February 2011)
Maravedis expects the price of femtocell access points to fall to as low as US$70-80 in 2011 from its $100 price during end-2019. Maravedids also expects the demand for femtocells will be highest in 2012, when upfront payment is expected to be below $50. (Maravedis January 2011).
Standards
Development
The
majority
of
industry
standards
have
ratified
femtocells
in
their
activities,
including
3GPP,
3GPP2
and
WiMAX.
Ongoing
standardisation
activities
are
taking
place
to
enhance
the
operation
of
femtocells
in
these
networks.
outset. It also supports a greater number of simultaneous users, emergency warning systems and both private and public usage models. Release 9 provides end-to-end support for LTE femtocells, including all radio and OAM aspects, enabling the development of the first standardised devices. It also supports hybrid access so femtocells can be used in retail environments to provide open access to customers yet also provide prioritised usage for a closed group such as staff. WCDMA uplink bandwidth requirements have been revised allowing a major increase in the amount of calls that can be simultaneously supported. Finally, the standard also supports public warning services so that areas without macro coverage can receive emergency messages such as Tsunami warnings. 3GPP Release 10 has been frozen in March 2010 and protocols were made stable during June 2011. Release 10 has introduced support for mobility enhancements for Home eNodeBs. The Stage 2 architecture for the enhancements was ratified in the RAN Plenary in December 2010, which introduces a new Iurh interface between the femtocell access points and supports soft and hard handover between femtocells. Other important additions to Release 10 include Self Optimizing Networks (SON), Selective IP Traffic Offload (SIPTO) and Local IP Access (LIPA). Proposals to consider new functionality, including support of Cell_FACH for HNBs and inter-CSG handover for HeNBs were removed from the Release 10 work item, and are now likely to be considered during Release 11.
page 18
Enhanced System Selection is supported for improved handset battery life, faster femtocell and macrocell system acquisition, improved handoff between femtocell and macrocell and femtozone awareness.
Local and Remote IP Access is supported, allowing packet data traffic to be directly offloaded from femtocells to customers home networks, corporate intranets, or to the public Internet. When mobile devices are operating outside of the femtocell subsystem, the 3GPP2 specifications also include a remote access capability to allow mobile devices to connect to the users IP network at home and exchange IP data with their home network via a secure remote tunnel
The 3GPP2 specifications provide a complete security architecture that allows CDMA2000 femtocell networks to support large numbers of femtocells via standard commercial IPsec/IKEv2-based security gateways. The 3GPP2 security architecture and protocols are compatible with the security architecture for 3GPP radio technology-based femtocell devices. This architecture not only protects system operators core networks, but also provides for highly secure authentication of FAP devices using secure certificate-based mechanisms and protocols that are widely deployed and validated for security, robustness, manageability, and scalability.
The specifications incorporate a security framework that allows WiMAX networks to support a large number of access points via standard commercial IPSec based security gateways. This phase of specifications also contains simple Self Organizing Network (SON) capabilities to allow automatic configuration of large numbers of femtocells. Future revisions will further enhance the SON capabilities to standardize automatic interference management between femtocells and macro base stations. The standard also incorporates support for three usage models to support different deployment scenarios such as residential, enterprise and outdoor environments. The Open Model allows the femtocell to operate like a normal WiMAX base station by allowing anyone to use the service; Closed Subscriber Group (CSG) Closed allows a limited number of pre-allocated subscribers to use the femtocell. The Closed Subscriber Group (CSG) Open extends the previous model to allow the subscriber to add users themselves.
Regulatory
Developments
In
April
2011
the
Femto
Forum
issued
two
regulatory
updates:
1.
Regulatory
considerations
for
LTE
deployments
2011 Informa Telecoms & Media, Femtocell Market Status page 19
The Forum issued a short statement for the benefit of regulators who may be considering specific regulatory requirements for femtocells using LTE technologies. It emphasised that femtocells are fully encompassed in the 3GPPs LTE standard and, as is the case with existing 3G femtocells, are fully managed by a licenced mobile operator via secure connections and management systems, allowing them to comply with relevant licencing conditions in the same fashion. It also highlighted the regulatory benefits of femtocells including improved access to mobile services and improved spectrum efficiency thereby making the technology a key part of LTE rollouts. A full paper of femtocell regulatory considerations is available on the Forums website here: http://www.femtoforum.org/femto/Files/File/regulatory_support_for_lte_femtocells_6apr11.pdf 2. Cellular interference distinguishing between types of cellular boosters and femtocells The second update focused on the controversy surrounding the issue of interference caused by the use of cellular signal boosters in the United States. It highlighted that certain specially designed signal boosters can be deployed without causing interference issues, the controversy therefore surrounds the use of improperly designed signal boosters. However, it also highlighted the distinction between boosters and femtocells which provide the virtues of specially designed signal boosters but with the added advantage that they also significantly improve network capacity. As such femtocells can provide mobile services in areas where cell capacity is under major strain a situation which cell boosting technology is fundamentally incapable of addressing. In addition, several national and international regulatory bodies have taken specific steps to clarify issues of policy and regulation relating to femtocells. The FCC is organizing a forum focusing on indoor deployments of small cells to take place during 28th October to discuss technologies available, potential business models and economic impart of small cell deployments. In March 2011 UK regulator Ofcom published its consultation on the award of the 800 MHz and 2.6 GHz spectrum, expected to take place in the first half of 2012. This includes an option for a portion of the 2.6 GHz band, potentially up to 2 x 20 MHz, to be awarded specifically for low-power use. This portion of the band could be shared by as many as ten operators concurrently, with technical measures and a potential code of practice amongst operators to limit potential interference. This consultation represents perhaps the first example of a spectrum award being explicitly designed to take account of the technical Femto Forum provides specific information for regulators at http://www.femtoforum.org/femto/regulatory.
page 20
page 21
Contact
Information
Femto
Forum
would
be
pleased
to
respond
to
further
queries
on
femtocell
deployment.
Contact
details:
Postal:
Email:
info@femtoforum.org
Web:
www.femtoforum.org
The
Femto
Forum
P
O
Box
23
Dursley
GL11
5WA
UK
Suggestions for additional content particularly analyst forecasts may be submitted to marketcommentary@femtoforum.org Informa Telecoms & Media Editor Dimitris Mavrakis, Principal Analyst Contact details: Postal: Email: dimitris.mavrakis@informa.com Web: www.informatandm.com Informa Telecoms & Media 37-41 Mortimer Street London W1T 3JH UK
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