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Hype Cycle for Communications Service Provider Infrastructure, 2011
Published: 27 July 2011 Analyst(s): Peter Kjeldsen, Ian Keene

When analyzing and adjusting their technology portfolios, communications service providers need to keep costs down while securing future revenues through innovations that offer tangible end-user benefits in terms of bandwidth, mobility, sophisticated devices and near ubiquitous video.
Table of Contents
Analysis..................................................................................................................................................4 What You Need to Know..................................................................................................................4 The Hype Cycle................................................................................................................................4 The Priority Matrix...........................................................................................................................11 Off The Hype Cycle........................................................................................................................12 On the Rise....................................................................................................................................13 Terabit-per-Second Transport..................................................................................................13 Cognitive Radio........................................................................................................................13 Network Virtualization...............................................................................................................15 OneAPI.....................................................................................................................................16 Cellular to Wi-Fi Authentication.................................................................................................18 Consumer Telepresence...........................................................................................................19 3D TV Services.........................................................................................................................21 Diameter Protocol.....................................................................................................................23 CMTS Bypass..........................................................................................................................24 WiMAX 802.16m......................................................................................................................26 LTE-A.......................................................................................................................................28 Smart Antennas........................................................................................................................29 VDSL2 Enhancements..............................................................................................................31 Mobile CDN..............................................................................................................................32 Network Intelligence.................................................................................................................34

Cloud-based RAN....................................................................................................................35 Socialcasting............................................................................................................................36 Contact Center Interaction Analytics.........................................................................................38 At the Peak.....................................................................................................................................39 Convergent Communications Advertising Platforms (CCAPs)....................................................39 IPX for LTE...............................................................................................................................42 Rich Communication Suite........................................................................................................44 VoIP Wireless WAN..................................................................................................................46 WDM-PON...............................................................................................................................47 Self-Organizing Networks.........................................................................................................49 4G Standard.............................................................................................................................50 CDN for Fixed CSPs.................................................................................................................52 Integrated Policy and Charging Control Solutions.....................................................................53 Augmented Reality...................................................................................................................55 Public Cloud Computing/the Cloud...........................................................................................57 100 Gbps Transport.................................................................................................................58 Sliding Into the Trough....................................................................................................................59 Mobile Subscriber Data Management.......................................................................................59 Energy Management Gateways................................................................................................61 802.22......................................................................................................................................63 Addressable TV Advertising......................................................................................................63 RF Over Glass..........................................................................................................................67 White Spaces: Unlicensed Spectrum TV...................................................................................69 TD-LTE.....................................................................................................................................70 Next-Generation Service Delivery Platforms..............................................................................72 IMS...........................................................................................................................................75 10G-PON.................................................................................................................................77 Network Sharing.......................................................................................................................79 IPv6..........................................................................................................................................82 802.16-2009............................................................................................................................84 Broadband Over Power Lines...................................................................................................85 802.11k-2008..........................................................................................................................86 802.11r-2008...........................................................................................................................87 Long Term Evolution.................................................................................................................88 MPLS-TP..................................................................................................................................90 Video Telepresence..................................................................................................................92
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40 Gbps Transport...................................................................................................................94 Mobile Advertising....................................................................................................................95 Climbing the Slope.........................................................................................................................99 Femtocells................................................................................................................................99 802.11n..................................................................................................................................100 IPTV.......................................................................................................................................101 Mobile DPI..............................................................................................................................104 Mobile Application Stores.......................................................................................................105 FTTH......................................................................................................................................107 HSPA+...................................................................................................................................109 Network DVR..........................................................................................................................111 TD-SCDMA............................................................................................................................113 VDSL2....................................................................................................................................114 DOCSIS 3.0 Cable..................................................................................................................116 Online Video...........................................................................................................................117 Interactive TV..........................................................................................................................119 MPEG-4 Advanced Video Coding...........................................................................................123 OTN and GMPLS/ASON.........................................................................................................125 Entering the Plateau.....................................................................................................................126 Next-Generation Voice............................................................................................................126 ROADMs................................................................................................................................128 Mobile TV Streaming..............................................................................................................129 Off the Hype Cycle.......................................................................................................................130 Mobile TV Broadcasting..........................................................................................................130 Residential VoIP......................................................................................................................132 Appendixes..................................................................................................................................134 Hype Cycle Phases, Benefit Ratings and Maturity Levels........................................................136 Recommended Reading.....................................................................................................................137

List of Tables
Table 1. Hype Cycle Phases...............................................................................................................136 Table 2. Benefit Ratings......................................................................................................................136 Table 3. Maturity Levels......................................................................................................................137

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.... of course...... Gartner's 2011 Hype Cycle for CSP Infrastructure can assist CSPs and their suppliers in selecting appropriate technology portfolios to match CSP service strategies... and leverage mass-customization enabled by network intelligence in order to optimize existing revenue streams and generate new ones..... we sort technologies based on whether the primary CSP attraction is cost/ performance or revenue protection/generation — or a combination of both.. a less austere outlook for the economy and continued innovation have increased the hype around technologies that offer more bandwidth at lower cost per bit.. the rapid increase in traffic volume — driven by mobile data and various types of video — means that CSPs face some fundamental logistical challenges. choosing the right architectures and getting the timing right are key challenges that CSPs must address.... and the heavy reliance on available standards can sometimes slow down the adoption of new technologies (because standards are not yet in place) or speed things up (if standards are available).. and alignment with.............. Priority Matrix for Communications Service Provider Infrastructure. Inc.. CSPs should.... complexity and importance of these networks tends to make CSP decision makers quite cautious..135 Analysis What You Need to Know Communications service providers (CSPs) need to develop their network infrastructure to meet cost center challenges such as bit-wise economy-of-scale and network ecology-of-scale... A clear trend is that the continued growth in mobile data and various types of video traffic... as they need to realize: Page 4 of 139 Gartner... 2011. consider which combination of raw bandwidth and network intelligence provides the best end-to-end performance — but the increase in hype relative to last year's report is most visible for the technologies that are related to raw bandwidth..... associated CSP service strategies and visions. when measured both in actual size and in terms of investments. They also need to adjust their business models and product portfolios.List of Figures Figure 1..... The Hype Cycle CSP network infrastructures are — if international connections are included — among the largest and most complex man-made constructions.........12 Figure 3...... However. A key challenge for CSPs will be to orchestrate investments in different parts of their infrastructure to ensure the best possible end-to-end support of. 2011.... Hype Cycle for Communications Service Provider Infrastructure.......... | G00214660 .. Selecting the right technologies.. The vast size... 2010. Hype Cycle for Communications Service Provider Infrastructure......... In the following section.10 Figure 2... the interest in cloud solutions...

prevent customer churn and protect/increase revenue by offering new types of service. "Network ecology-of-scale" with energy efficient architectures and infrastructure that prevents energy consumption from getting out of hand as network traffic continues to rise. their networks must be built and operated in ways which ensure that. like most other organizations. as more traffic is handled. In order to justify continued investments in ever more sophisticated network infrastructure. It is important for CSPs to realize that these are not simply challenges for today or tomorrow. as the technological underpinnings of both are increasingly intertwined. The intended audience for this Hype Cycle is technology stakeholders in CSPs and their suppliers. evolving consumer behavior and a challenging financial environment. most CSPs are focusing on short-term impact. Inc. Hence. entertainment and information services. year after year. CSPs and their suppliers face changing competitive landscapes. the cost per transmitted bit decreases. "Mass-customization through network intelligence" where new services. The Hype Cycle features both fixed and mobile carrier infrastructure technologies. In the current climate the imbalance between short. CSPs do realize the imperative of transforming their networks. networks and underlying business models to a durable longterm vision with sustained differentiation — taking into account the threats and opportunities related to the emerging public cloud — stand a real chance of breaking away from their competitors. However.■ "Bit-wise economy-of-scale" — that is. driven by consolidation. which offers limited room for true differentiation. although the imbalance has been reduced over the past year. content and features are used to protect and drive up revenue. Gartner. globalization. Competition is arriving in many forms and from all directions — both traditional and nontraditional competitors (such as Google) are seeking a share of the fast-changing market for communications. may find themselves in equally dire straits. but for future decades with no real end in sight. innovation. keeping a cap on the total network cost. Gartner's 2011 Hype Cycle for CSP Infrastructure covers key technologies for network infrastructure that CSPs should evaluate to meet the challenges outlined above. business models and organizations. Here. masscustomization through network intelligence is essential. or that get the timing wrong. | G00214660 Page 5 of 139 . even before more passive competitors do. as CSPs are transforming both their business models and their networks to become more cost-effective.and long-term investments is even stronger than usual. they tend to focus more on near-term risk than on longer-term risks and opportunities. ■ ■ Both bit-wise economy-of-scale and network ecology-of-scale can be thought of as cost center challenges. CSPs need to tap into new revenue streams as well as protect existing revenues. CSPs that fail to innovate may not survive — but CSPs that decide on the wrong type of transformation. Those CSPs that can make the right longterm investments that align services. An apparent disconnect exists between the CSP investment climate and the changes required by the challenges that they are facing.

Mobile DPI. Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM) PON. Cable Modem Termination System (CMTS) Bypass. White Spaces: Unlicensed Spectrum TV. and alignment with. TD-LTE. Terabit-per-Second Transport and Self-Organizing Networks. IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS). It is interesting to notice that all of the fast-moving technology profiles are related either to increased bandwidth or to lowering the cost of bandwidth. FTTH.  ■ ■ The technologies that have progressed most on the Hype Cycle come from either the cost/ performance category (100 Gbps Transport and Network Sharing) or the combined category (RF Over Glass. Interactive TV. Femtocells and White Spaces: Unlicensed Spectrum TV). IPTV. IPX for LTE. High-Speed Packet Access Evolution (HSPA+). we observed that many technologies were piling up at the Trough of Disillusionment. Socialcasting. Mobile Subscriber Data Management. Time Division-Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access (TD-SCDMA). although several of these technologies have moved toward the Slope on Enlightenment as CSPs have started investing in them. Smart Antennas. Mobile Application Stores. Cognitive Radio. Public Cloud Computing/the Cloud. Mobile CDN. Optical Transport Networks and Generalized Multiprotocol Label Switching/ Automatically Switched Optical Network (OTN and GMPLS/ASON). MPEG-4 Advanced Video Coding. 100 Gbps Transport.16-2009. Augmented Reality. 10G-PON. Network DVR. Radio Frequency (RF) Over Glass. Video Telepresence. Inc.0 Cable. 802. 802. Long Term Evolution. Diameter Protocol.It is perhaps easiest to understand the technologies on the Hype Cycle and their potential impact on CSP infrastructure by categorizing them according to whether CSPs introduce them for reasons of cost/performance.22. or both: ■ Technologies introduced based on cost or performance considerations. Energy Management Gateways. In the 2010 Hype Cycle for CSP Infrastructure. Mobile Application Stores. Cloud-based RAN. Network Intelligence. Technologies introduced to protect or drive up revenue.22. Terabit-per-Second Transport. | G00214660 . Long Term Evolution Advanced (LTE-A). A residual effect of this phenomena is still visible in the 2011 version of the Hype Cycle. Integrated Policy and Charging Control Solutions. Page 6 of 139 Gartner. Consumer Telepresence. Voice Over Internet Protocol (VoIP) Wireless WAN. 802. Multiprotocol Label Switching Transport Profile (MPLS-TP). OneAPI. Contact Center Interaction Analytics.11k-2008. CDN for Fixed CSPs. Next-Generation Voice.11r-2008. Addressable TV Advertising. VDSL2. revenue. Cellular to Wi-Fi Authentication. VDSL2 Enhancements. Convergent Communications Advertising Platforms (CCAP). and 3D TV Services. Rich Communication Suite.11n. Broadband Over Power Lines. Mobile TV Streaming. Technologies introduced for reasons of both cost/performance and revenue. WiMAX 802. associated CSP service strategies and visions. Online Video. 802. Network Sharing. Fourth-Generation (4G) Standard. Reconfigurable Optical Add/Drop Multiplexers (ROADMs). This illustrates that a key challenge for CSPs will be to orchestrate investments in different parts of their infrastructure to ensure the best possible end-to-end support of. Femtocells. Long Term Evolution. IPv6. 802.16m. 10G Passive Optical Network (10G-PON). Network Virtualization. Data-Over-Cable Service Interface Specification (DOCSIS) 3. and 802. Next-Generation Service Delivery Platforms. 40 Gbps Transport.

2011" replaces the 2010 report of the same name. some technologies have been deleted and some added — both sets are listed below. Gartner. Inc. The lack of movement of the Public Cloud Computing/the Cloud technology may seem surprising. Network Sharing. though most of them only slightly. it should be noted that the following technologies have not moved since last year's report: ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ CMTS Bypass. Public Cloud Computing/the Cloud. 802. Finally. We also list those technologies that have seen noticeable change since last year's report. Some. 10G-PON. but the sustained hype surrounding cloud-based solutions means that this technology experienced a prolonged stay close to the Peak of Inflated Expectations. 802. | G00214660 Page 7 of 139 . Femtocells. have changed position more substantially: ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 100 Gbps Transport. RF Over Glass. there is one technology that has moved backward since last years report: ■ Convergent Communications Advertising Platforms (CCAP). Long Term Evolution. VoIP Wireless WAN. White Spaces: Unlicensed Spectrum TV.22. Further details of the reasons for the revised positions are given in the individual entries in this Hype Cycle. however. In addition.Major Changes to the 2011 Hype Cycle Gartner's "Hype Cycle for Communications Service Provider Infrastructure. Notable Positioning Changes Most of the technologies have changed position since the 2010 iteration of the Hype Cycle. As is always the case.16-2009. Rich Communication Suite.

The reason behind the unusual backward movement of the CCAP technology is that its capability to deliver convergent and integrated advertising functions across multiple channels, media types and media formats has been advancing at a slower pace than had been previously assessed. This is mainly due to the complexity and challenges faced with the integration of the broad array of components across the data, the process and the systems layers that comprise a CCAP architecture. The lack of advertising-related open and standardized data models and interfaces further challenges the evolution of CCAP. New to the Hype Cycle The following technologies are new to the Hype Cycle:
■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■

Mobile CDN. CDN for Fixed CSPs. 802.11k-2008. Cellular to Wi-Fi Authentication. Integrated Policy and Charging Control Solutions. Network Intelligence. Diameter Protocol. VDSL2 Enhancements. Energy Management Gateways. Terabit-per-Second Transport. Cognitive Radio. IPv6. Cloud-based RAN. Mobile Subscriber Data Management. Network Virtualization. Augmented Reality. Socialcasting. Video Telepresence. Consumer Telepresence. Online Video. Mobile DPI. Contact Center Interaction Analytics.
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■ ■ ■

IPX for LTE. OneAPI. Mobile Advertising.

Deleted From the Hype Cycle The following technologies no longer appear on the Hype Cycle:
■ ■ ■ ■

Switched Digital Video — because the functionality is covered within other techonologies. High-Speed Uplink Packet Access — matured beyond the scope of the Hype Cycle. Mobile TV Broadcasting — matured beyond the scope of the Hype Cycle. Residential VoIP — matured beyond the scope of the Hype Cycle.

Renamed Entries Three entries have been renamed on this year's Hype Cycle:
■ ■

OTN and GMPLS/ASON — was called GMPLS/ASON previously. Convergent Communications Advertising Platforms (CCAP) — was called Convergent Communications Advertising Data Platforms previously. 802.16-2009 — replaces 802.16e-2005, which was used in previous iterations of this report.

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Figure 1. Hype Cycle for Communications Service Provider Infrastructure, 2011

expectations
Self-Organizing Networks WDM-PON VoIP Wireless WAN Rich Communication Suite IPX for LTE Convergent Communications Advertising Platforms (CCAP) Contact Center Interaction Analytics Socialcasting

4G Standard CDN for Fixed CSPs Integrated Policy and Charging Control Solutions Augmented Reality Public Cloud Computing/the Cloud 100 Gbps Transport

Mobile Subscriber Data Management OTN and Energy Management Gateways GMPLS/ASON 802.22 Cloud-based RAN Addressable TV Advertising Online Video Network Intelligence DOCSIS 3.0 RF Over Glass TD-LTE Mobile CDN Cable White Spaces: Unlicensed Next-Generation FTTH Spectrum TV VDSL2 Enhancements MPEG-4 Advanced Video Coding Service Delivery Interactive TV Smart Antennas Mobile Application Stores Platforms VDSL2 WiMAX 802.16m LTE-A IMS Femtocells TD-SCDMA CMTS Bypass 10G-PON Network DVR Diameter Protocol IPv6 Network Sharing HSPA+ 3D TV Services Consumer Mobile DPI Telepresence 802.16-2009 IPTV Cellular to Wi-Fi Authentication Broadband Over 802.11n Power Lines Mobile Advertising OneAPI 40 Gbps Transport 802.11k-2008 Network Virtualization Terabit-per-Second Transport 802.11r-2008 Video Telepresence Cognitive Radio As of July 2011 Long Term Evolution MPLS-TP

Mobile TV Streaming ROADMs Next-Generation Voice

Technology Trigger

Peak of Inflated Expectations

Trough of Disillusionment

Slope of Enlightenment

Plateau of Productivity

time
Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2 years
Source: Gartner (July 2011)

2 to 5 years

5 to 10 years

more than 10 years

obsolete before plateau

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Gartner. Network Virtualization and Public Cloud Computing/the Cloud). the ability to create new services (Next-Generation Service Delivery Platforms) and changed business models (Network Sharing. Their transformational aspects relate to network performance (FTTH). The Priority Matrix also shows a number of technologies that are expected to have a high impact that will reach the Plateau of Productivity in less than two years. As the Priority Matrix shows. five of the included technologies are transformational in nature. These technologies will have a noticeable impact on CSP networks by 2012. Inc. These are technologies that will make the networks of 2015 to 2020 very different from those we know today. MPEG-4 Advanced Video Coding and Next-Generation Voice). or enable new services and revenue streams (Mobile Application Stores.The Priority Matrix A characteristic feature of the Priority Matrix is that there are no transformational technologies that are less than two years to mainstream adoption. Further details of the reasons for the technology positions in the Priority Matrix are given in the individual entries in this document. These technologies relate to basic network cost and performance (HSPA+). This reflects the strong momentum of the CSP infrastructure market and the inherent difficulty in transforming networks quickly. | G00214660 Page 11 of 139 .

Inc.0 Cable HSPA+ Mobile Application Stores Mobile DPI MPEG-4 Advanced Video Coding Next-Generation Voice Online Video VDSL2 CDN for Fixed CSPs Diameter Protocol Integrated Policy and Charging Control Solutions Interactive TV Long Term Evolution Mobile Advertising Mobile CDN Mobile Subscriber Data Management MPLS-TP OneAPI Self-Organizing Networks Socialcasting VDSL2 Enhancements Augmented Reality Cellular to Wi-Fi Authentication Cloud-based RAN Contact Center Interaction Analytics Convergent Communications Advertising Platforms (CCAP) Energy Management Gateways TD-LTE Cognitive Radio LTE-A moderate 40 Gbps Transport 802.11n IMS IPTV IPX for LTE Network Intelligence RF Over Glass Rich Communication Suite Smart Antennas White Spaces: Unlicensed Spectrum TV 10G-PON 4G Standard Addressable TV Advertising VoIP Wireless WAN WDM-PON 3D TV Services Terabit-per-Second Transport low 802.Figure 2.11r-2008 802. Page 12 of 139 Gartner.16-2009 IPv6 As of July 2011 Source: Gartner (July 2011) Off The Hype Cycle Mobile TV Broadcasting and Residential VoIP are considered mature technologies and have therefore been removed from the 2011 Hype Cycle.22 100 Gbps Transport 802. 2011 benefit years to mainstream adoption less than 2 years 2 to 5 years FTTH Network Sharing Network Virtualization Next-Generation Service Delivery Platforms Public Cloud Computing/the Cloud 5 to 10 years more than 10 years transformational high DOCSIS 3. | G00214660 .11k-2008 Femtocells Mobile TV Streaming Network DVR OTN and GMPLS/ASON ROADMs Video Telepresence 802. Priority Matrix for Communications Service Provider Infrastructure.

Sylvain Fabre Definition: Cognitive radio dynamically identifies how spectrum is being used and chooses appropriate frequencies." seeking to demonstrate ever higher bit rates per channel. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Embryonic Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. Business Impact: Commercial transport systems with per-channel bit rates in excess of 1 Tbps. Cognitive radio gives flexibility of operation that goes a long way beyond that offered by software-defined radio Gartner." it is still very early days in terms of "real market hype" — which explains the position of the technology at the far left-hand side of the Hype Cycle. ZTE Cognitive Radio Analysis By: Jim Tully. User Advice: Communications service providers should expect a continued requirement for bitwise economies of scale in their networks. may be hard to envision — but so were 100 Gbps systems 10 years ago. This technology may eventually offer a cost-effective means of addressing traffic growth issues — acting as an enabling technology for the continued expansion of network capacity.On the Rise Terabit-per-Second Transport Analysis By: Peter Kjeldsen Definition: We define terabit-per-second transport as systems with one or more wavelengths each operating at one terabit per second (1 Tbps) or above. considering the time lag relative to the introduction of 100 Gbps systems in today's market. we are probably still more than 10 years away from commercially available terabitper-second transport systems. During the second half of the 1990s. While such impressive technological achievements are attracting significant interest and "R&D hype. | G00214660 Page 13 of 139 . there were similar announcements for 100 Gbps singlechannel systems and. have (over the past few decades) been a key ingredient in the innovation around optical transport systems. In March 2011. ZTE presented a post-deadline paper at the OFC/NFOEC 2011 conference demonstrating transmission of a 10 Tbps single-channel signal over 640 kilometers of fiber. protocols and modulation to coexist with other devices. With fiber life spans being 20 or more years. Ciena. Inc. it is essential to ensure that deployments are made in a way that makes investments sufficiently future proof. and plan their network architectures and fiber deployments accordingly. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: "Hero experiments.

The utilization of these elements is critical in allowing end-users to make optimal use of available frequency spectrum and wireless networks with a common set of radio hardware. New schemes need to be devised for the allocation and licensing of spectrum. adaptive radio and other technologies to automatically adjust its behavior or operation to achieve desired objectives. depending on the needs of these and other devices in the vicinity. whenever they need to and in whatever manner is appropriate. Page 14 of 139 Gartner. Legislation and regulation. Some handset suppliers could even utilize SDR while others do not — within the same system. and can make decisions about their radio mode of operation behavior by mapping that information against predefined objectives. It requires a solution that does not consume more bandwidth than is saved through the use of cognitive radio. SDR enables wireless devices to switch dynamically between protocols and frequencies. enabling devices to dynamically negotiate protocol and spectrum use. These are likely to include agreements to give designated owners of spectrum the highest priority while others can then use unused bandwidth. which generally show that spectrum is under-utilized. This requires agreement and standardization. These require relatively highperformance digital signal processing technology with the added complexity of reconfigurable capabilities. The secondary user must exploit these spectrum opportunities without causing harmful degradation to the primary network. Design of the polling and exploration scheme among neighboring devices. Cognitive radio needs to be adopted by the entire system (infrastructure and handsets) at the same time. and is also a foundation that can be used to build a cognitive radio system. The IEEE is active in the early stages of this work. Such technology typically consumes too much power for handsets. This will reduce cost to end-users while allowing them to communicate with whomever they need. The motivation for cognitive radio stems from various measurements of spectrum utilization. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Cognitive radio is often viewed as an extension of SDR but it is far more complex and applies to the entire system. such as location and utilization of the radio frequency spectrum at that location. ■ ■ These are formidable hurdles and the technology is unlikely to reach the mainstream before 2020. SDR is a more localized technology where base stations and handsets could adopt the technology at different times. Inc. In cognitive radio. communication systems are aware of their internal state and environment.(SDR). Cognitive radio is a more sophisticated concept than SDR. Cognitive radio is further defined by many to utilize SDR. This means that there are many "holes" in the radio spectrum that could be exploited by secondary users. | G00214660 . Three major issues must be addressed in the development of cognitive radio systems: ■ Hardware and software architecture of handset devices. This systemwide dimension increases the complexity and the time scale considerably compared with SDR.

with guaranteed bandwidth on-demand. Sharma. | G00214660 Page 15 of 139 . this could allow for cheaper radio coverage. Network virtualization is a new concept whereby network connectivity is virtual. Inc. For communications service providers. ■ ■ Gartner. These mega-plexes comprise application servers typically running on 1 to 10 Gigabit Ethernet general-purpose computers with storage and high-performance processing power. This offers access to routing features and data streams which can provide newer service-aware resilient solutions. New service networks introduced without new overlays. For communications service providers (CSPs). Reduced total cost of ownership. network connectivity between the data centers has been fixed. real-time session control for converged voice and video applications. the essential benefits of network virtualization can include: ■ Energy and space savings from converged network elements and an elastic network. newer security services that are native within network elements. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Embryonic Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. supporting subscriber-aware policy control for peer-to-peer traffic management. and improve user experience as radio access can occur on multiple networks. rather than speed-specific nailed-up circuits connected to dedicated ports/routers. Thales Network Virtualization Analysis By: Akshay K. Newer emerging trends in cloud computing architectures have occurred.User Advice: Cognitive radio can allow for a more optimal use of finite radio resources. and application-aware. to be router-. depending on what is currently available to the user. However. Peter Kjeldsen Definition: Network virtualization is the process of combining hardware and software network resources and network functionality into a single virtual network. speed-. Business Impact: End-users will benefit from a seamless wireless experience as it will become more unlikely for them to ever completely be out of radio coverage. ST-Ericsson.and resiliency-agnostic. latency. NEC. Intel. port-. while vendors like VMware have virtualized storage or applications that can be deployed across data centers. with the potential of a future on-demand model of network connectivity relying on real-time policy and charging. as multiple legacy access networks could be leveraged in order to achieve coverage and capacity. with vast mega-plexes of massively parallel server-farms in huge data centers.

as well as the sophisticated over-the-top (OTT) services consumed by communications service providers' (CSPs') subscribers has put pressure on CSPs globally: to innovate. Juniper Networks Recommended Reading: "Dataquest Insight: Network Virtualization is An Emerging Trend in Data Center Communications" OneAPI Analysis By: Mentor Cana Definition: The increase in the use of mobile devices and mobile data. in the area of operations support systems/ business support systems. and to offer new services to users. Inc. User Advice: CSPs should consider network virtualization in the context of their overall network strategies. emerging technology will have a minor business impact for data center CIOs. the underlying infrastructure is still fractured because there are a number of aggregators and consolidators each specializing in a limited set of APIs. Many CSPs have been exposing limited network capabilities (mostly messaging. Streamlined asset utilization. and monitor announcements from equipment vendors in this area. Cisco. by providing a layer of administrative abstractness. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Cisco. Further. Enterprises should look to CSPs for leveraged data center offers based on network virtualization. either directly to third-party developers or through application programming interface (API) aggregators as intermediaries. Benefit Rating: Transformational Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Ciena. to find new business models in order to monetize their network and operational infrastructure. they do not enable the use and reuse of services internally or Page 16 of 139 Gartner. as the aggregators are aimed at third-party developers. with on-demand real-time charging. Improved profitability. newer solutions with real-time policy control are needed to allow for this capability to be a managed service. Business Impact: To begin with. Ciena and Juniper Networks have announced initial network virtualization capabilities. Support of new business models. location and charging) through proprietary interfaces. however.■ ■ ■ ■ Risk mitigation. until de facto standards emerge. While API aggregation via intermediaries helps third-party developers somewhat. | G00214660 . This pressure has led many CSPs to open up their network capabilities for consumption by third-party developers for integration into their services.

have teamed up in cooperation with Aepona — to provide a common platform for developers to access these major CSPs in Canada in a standardized way using the OneAPI implementation. Thus.0 adds the following new capabilities: voice call control (enabling phone calls from Web.aepona. and the overwhelming competition from OTT providers. The aggregators also: dilute the branding and loyalty of any particular CSP. Currently. Gartner. Orange. After that. CSPs can avoid the risk of being marginalized and kept outside of the innovative service creation cycle and potential revenue stream. The business case for developing specific APIs will depend on the value of the applications and the user base that a provider can offer. especially with the emergence of OTT and disruptive services related to mobility and mobile devices. Telus and T-Mobile (in the U. location. Gartner estimates that the window of opportunity for CSPs is during the next three to five years — while content services and mobile Internet are maturing. between CSPs and.. Austria.between CSPs.aepona. desktop and mobile phones). that expose messaging. Vodafone (via its Betavine developer platform) has exposed limited messaging capabilities for commercial use via OneAPI. OneAPI version 2. The Canadian CSPs. by third-party providers and developers. do not help with multivendor manageability.0 — finalized in May 2011. Telenor. Given the rapid acceleration of mobility and mobile data use. Germany and The Netherlands).K. the telecom industry — led by the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) Association (GSMA) — has defined OneAPI as a set of standardized and lightweight Web-friendly APIs for CSPs to expose their network capabilities in a standardized way. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Network-exposure APIs such as OneAPI can add value to CSP networks. Telus and Rogers. data connection profile. as mobile Internet and content services begin to take off. and help them compete with OTT providers and other CSPs. Aepona (http://oneapi. the current OneAPI specifications are at version 2. and device capabilities profile.2. data connection profile (using REST only) and charging (using SOAP only).com). Rather. Bell. CSPs need to implement OneAPI specifications: to keep up with other CSPs already offering them. User Advice: Given the current context of constant service innovation. CSPs may not have the choice of maintaining their current state and stagnating. Building on the earlier OneAPI specifications. Thus. The following CSPs have made their APIs available for messaging and location services in the GSMA's reference implementation (for testing purposes): Vodafone (Betavine).com/GSMA. has enabled a reference implementation of OneAPI specification v. and charging capabilities. OneAPI interfaces can be used internally by a CSP. working with http://oneapi. | G00214660 Page 17 of 139 . Inc.0 with the following capabilities exposed for testing: messaging (using Simple Object Access Protocol [SOAP] and Representational State Transfer [REST]). it will be more difficult to compete with established brands and APIs will have become just a necessary feature. location (using SOAP and REST). Telecom Italia. The API window of opportunity is open now. and take advantage of the economies of scale in architecture and in user base. and do not reduce the cost and the complexity in the creation of applications that span multiple CSPs (multiple interfaces for the same service across different CSPs). more importantly. For example. by standardizing and opening up their network capabilities for consumption and integration beyond their immediate control.

Inc. by applying service-oriented architecture principles to ensure that the capabilities and functionalities they expose are widely discoverable. independent software vendors. Uniformity in the application layer and the network-exposure layer will ensure real portability of applications. and its willingness to adapt and use OneAPI interfaces to build applications and widgets. How and Why Communications Service Providers Are Developing APIs to Expose Their Networks. The open and direct relationship (based on standardized interfaces) among the CSPs. the CSPs can improve their services. Worldwide" "Market Trends: Worldwide. | G00214660 . because it can also be used in future to enable them to interoperate and use each other's network capabilities. third-party vendors and application developers. whose devices can move between 3G and Wi-Fi networks at a low level using a 802. reusable. also need a unified and reliable way to authorize their access to all of those networks. maintainable. and may also induce innovation in value and service co-creation with their partners and end users. OS owners. Ultimately. CSPs and end users — plans to utilize the GSMA OneAPI standard to access CSPs' network layer. This multivendor and multiple physical layer authentication allows cellular connections to be transferred to Wi-Fi. ultimately.21 handoff. the real test will come from the developer community. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Aepona. Michael J. The Open Mobile Alliance (OMA) has also undertaken initiatives to expose Parlay X Web Services and ParlayREST via OneAPI. handset manufacturers. as well as among multiple Wi-Fi vendors from one installation to another. The CSPs can further benefit from the adaptation and standardization of interfaces. within an enterprise. 2011 Update" Cellular to Wi-Fi Authentication Analysis By: Tim Zimmerman. Business Impact: CSPs can benefit from the adoption and implementation of OneAPI. King Definition: Cellular to Wi-Fi authentication provides a foundational component for dual-mode smartphones to move freely between cellular and Wi-Fi connectivity for voice and data applications. Mobile users. Locatrix Recommended Reading: "Competitive Landscape: SOA for Communications Service Providers. Based on this knowledge. and supportable over time. will provide CSPs with a wealth of intelligence about the patterns of use of each individual service in the ecosystem (both internal and external).11u provides a common Page 18 of 139 Gartner.The Wholesale Application Community (WAC) — a global alliance that aims to create an open application ecosystem for mobile devices by bringing together application developers. usable (technology and platform agnostic). whether it is a hot spot or. 802.

has boosted the momentum for initiatives such as the Wi-Fi Alliance's Next-Generation Hotspot or Hotspot 2. They should also expect issues with initial implementations of multiple vendor solutions in hot spots. User Advice: Users should expect that once the functionality has been agreed upon by the industry it will take time for the necessary hardware and software to be implemented. Verizon Consumer Telepresence Analysis By: Fernando Elizalde. since they control the end-to-end solution. such as high-definition television (HDTV).abstraction that all networks. Enterprises looking to use the technology to additionally provide a migration strategy for roaming among Wi-Fi vendors will have more initial success. broadband and home theater sound systems. can use to provide a common authentication experience. Cisco. such as stadiums. high-quality audio. including: life-size (or near life-size) image displays. Initial vendor testing is just beginning with the Wireless Broadband Alliance and will begin in the fall of 2011 for the Wi-Fi Alliance. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Embryonic Sample Vendors: Aruba Networks. AT&T. Telepresence has the potential to break down the consumer dissatisfaction that has been prevalent with video telephony. Telepresence systems are being driven by the enterprise market through companies such as Cisco. Vendor trials will show the ability to authenticate. but vendors will still need to negotiate roaming agreements and to facilitate rolling out the necessary hardware and software for the end-to-end solution for all components of the multivendor solution. Inc. metropolitan areas or university classrooms.0. as well as within the network infrastructure. full-motion video capabilities and a minimal camera-to-eye angle to provide virtual eye-to-eye contact. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The ratification of 802. a consumer system will need to embrace a variety of environments in which the majority of costs can be absorbed in other home devices. While an enterprise system can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars and may require an environment that is ad hoc. Elia San Miguel Definition: Consumer telepresence is a set of technologies that enables users to feel they are "present" during videoconferences. Telepresence solutions share common traits. Consumer telepresence creates a greater challenge than its enterprise counterpart. | G00214660 Page 19 of 139 .11u. HP and Polycom. Business Impact: The ability to seamlessly roam from cellular to Wi-Fi will be huge as Wi-Fi continues to provide a 450 Mbps connectivity through a single access point architecturally capable of over 1 gigabyte of Wi-Fi connectivity through layering and load balancing using multiple access points. The offloading ability will provide a solution for density-rich environments. regardless of protocol. Gartner. which provides the necessary functionality for internetwork communication such as network discovery and selection.

this will require the use of a range of different home entertainment systems. rudimentary solutions will not suffice. Two models of telepresence system appear to be "shaping up" in the market: ■ The first is a managed service provided by carrier service providers.S. video messaging and video storing. plus a $24. for example. | G00214660 .Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Consumer telepresence market adoption is a long way off. but only with regard to features such as quality of service. Page 20 of 139 Gartner. as an indication of the lack of success of this model. Inc. Those first to market may have an advantage. commercially introduced by Cisco in the U. However. User Advice: For technology providers. Cisco reduced the price of the umi box to $499 and the service to $9. In addition to software. The cost of high-end. The second is delivered over a broadband connection to an Internet-enabled HDTV using a kit. has not shown signs of strong acceptance. connected TV manufacturers are already offering a Skype client that. high-definition sound and a quality microphone system will be required. a high-definition camera.95 a month in March 2011. This type of service — Cisco is its biggest advocate — delivers a high-quality consumer experience but is expensive. ■ Both models need to incorporate the consumer's HDTV and home sound systems to provide the necessary sound quality at a price that is economically viable for the consumer market. stand-alone systems will be a deterrent for most consumers. allows for Skype video calls to be made on an HDTV set. and sections of their populace.95 fee per month for unlimited calls. in October 2010 under the umi brand. Meanwhile. Panasonic." Telepresence is about quality of experience. Only very few countries. LG and Samsung have all introduced Skype-enabled HDTV sets to be commercialized within the year. despite the launch of much hyped products by Cisco and Skype. but it will be many years before it becomes a viable market for many players. These types of product will address only 1% of the addressable market — the "innovators" and those who are financially and technology advanced. The first model. with the use of a high-definition camera that retails for between $100 and $200. distance learning and remote health applications. Cisco's umi was initially priced at $599 for the standalone unit. consumer telepresence must adapt to the consumer's wallet. The experience that vendors are gaining in enterprise telepresence will be directly applicable to consumer telepresence. The quality of experience related to consumer telepresence video will be the primary requirement. while in April 2011 it announced that it was moving the umi to its enterprise product line. will have the standard of living necessary to accommodate consumer telepresence within the next decade. It is suitable for some vertical segments in which it may be adopted faster. but the real gains will come only when the experience offered approaches the feeling of "being there. Consumer telepresence is a market worth studying as it evolves.

Several broadcasters and pay-TV operators have been trialing 3D TV services since mid-2009. Logitech. Panasonic. TV service providers are looking for the next premium TV experience after highdefinition TV (HDTV). Walt Disney's Pixar subsidiary has announced that it will produce all future content for 3D release. Hollywood studios are interested in extending the reach of the cinema experience to the home. generated high expectations around the delivery of 3D content to the home TV. satellite TV operator Sky).K. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The resurgence of 3D screening and the enormous commercial success of some recent 3D films in 2010. Sony Pictures' Discovery Communications and IMAX have formed a joint venture to produce native 3D content.S. because this will create an additional pay-TV revenue stream for their growing portfolio of 3D content.Business Impact: Until truly affordable consumer telepresence systems come to market. Samsung. LifeSize.'s public broadcaster. but the markets most likely to adopt this technology have only just upgraded to "regular" HDTV. This is a market fraught with peril for technology and service providers. | G00214660 Page 21 of 139 . For example. the U. Skype. Teliris Recommended Reading: "Predicts 2011: CSPs Must Rethink Business Paradigms to Meet Market Challenges" "Vendor Rating: Cisco" 3D TV Services Analysis By: Fernando Elizalde Definition: Three-dimensional television (3D TV) services deliver 3D images to TV sets using stereoscopic imaging: where two slightly different images are superposed and transmitted to each eye. Gartner. it is a technology solution that requires a change in consumer habits. However. has also announced that it will film the 2012 London Olympics in 3D. Consumer telepresence's potential to deliver the experience of "being there" offers the promise of significant change in the dynamics of consumer communications. Tandberg. There are several technologies currently used to deliver 3D images on TV sets. Even the potentially less expensive Skype offering requires the purchase of new Internet-enabled HDTV sets and kits. At the same time. the eventual success of this technology will still be in question. rather than pared-down business systems for the elite. and those that don't. and most important. sports broadcaster ESPN and U. LG. and many have gone live from mid-2010 onwards (most noticeable among these are the U. HP. They fall into two broad groups: those that require glasses. including original series. Benefit Rating: Low Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Embryonic Sample Vendors: Cisco.K. Similarly. The BBC. Inc.

and selected markets in Europe and Asia/Pacific. the lack of industry standards remains an issue that translates into limited deployment on fragmented. adult content and children's animation. Vendors and service providers interested in this market must set up a process to keep track of how the uptake of these services progresses. the ready-to-deploy technologies require either the use of special glasses to view the content in 3D. Although 3D-ready TVs have started to come down sharply in price. showing mixed content. proprietary platforms. Broadcasters and pay-TV providers in geographies other than the U. The biggest issues holding back anything like mass-market adoption are the need to wear special glasses to see the 3D effect and the limited viewing angles at which one can appreciate the 3D effect.S. Inc.K. Understandably. Business Impact: Consumer electronics' manufacturers will continue to introduce 3D-ready equipment and to increase production of this product type in the coming years. Currently. Poland and other countries. However. | G00214660 . Industry players must set up industry standards quickly. In any case. The appeal of 3D for soap operas.. situation comedies. compatible. while TV manufacturer Samsung has launched a 3D VOD service on its connected TV platform. demand Page 22 of 139 Gartner. or special glasses and a filter for the television screen (or even a new set) for an experience that. Current 3D TV technologies present pay-TV providers with a relatively easy setup to deliver the next significant consumer experience. the U. with the 3D-ready HDTV set-top boxes already deployed in some consumers' homes. Germany. the 3D content available for TV viewing is restricted to films and sports events and is limited. may not be optimal. such as subscription-based 3D video-on-demand (VOD) services are starting to be launched in France. reality shows and news remains questionable. Some operators. will continue to concentrate on introducing HDTV for the next three to five years at least. so that they can introduce equipment to capture 3D content and products for the consumer household. The genres most suitable for 3D viewing are horror. User Advice: Early commercial launches in the U. These types of content are very suitable for VOD. ultimately. However. sports. and avoid creating a market with fragmented technologies for 3D TV services. consumer electronics' vendors are heavily advocating 3D TV services. plus certain types of performance. France and a few other countries will provide a good early insight into how well consumers receive 3D TV services.. in some cases.Most of the 3D services launched consist (as expected) of a single 3D channel for linear TV. and remember that successful early trials do not always translate into commercial mass-market opportunities. 3D TV sets that don't require glasses won't be available at mass-market prices for many years to come. There is a strong drive from film studios to release 3D content in the near future. rather than genre-dedicated channels.S. sales have remained low — hindering adoption and indicating an initial lack of mass-market interest in 3D TV services. action. such as music and dance. Content remains limited to sports events and documentaries.

Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: ESPN. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Solutions using the Diameter protocol have been slowly increasing since 2009 and. Sky. RADIUS operates over User Datagram Protocol. Sony. whereas Diameter operates over either TCP or SCTP. for the more specialized and less family-orientated content for which people are willing to pay for better quality experiences (such as sports TV). which translates to efficiency versus RADIUS. with the onset of smartphone and device adoption. France Telecom. | G00214660 Page 23 of 139 . and where sports bars are popular. Despite the hype and the initial commercial launches. therefore Diameter = RADIUS x2. authorization and accounting (AAA) protocol for computer and telecommunications networks and is the successor to Remote Authentication Dial-In User Service (RADIUS). reliability and flexibility. A Mass-Market Product or a Niche Technology?" Diameter Protocol Analysis By: Deborah Kish Definition: Diameter is an authentication. 3D offers a chance for service providers to differentiate their services from those of their competitors and to drive additional revenue. Diameter's challenge/response attributes can be secured using end-to-end encryption and authentication. and the expected increase in mobile data connections. Inc. it is not clear that the consumer market is ready for 3D TV yet. Gartner expects that mobile data traffic will grow at a compound annual rate of 91% between 2010 and 2015. SingTel. which are used widely in the all-Internet-Protocol (IP). service-oriented IMS and Long Term Evolution (LTE) architectures. The main features included in Diameter that overcome the limitations of RADIUS include operation over reliable connections (TCP/Stream Control Transmission Protocol [SCTP]). With CSPs ramping up their Gartner. which does not provide reliable connections. LG. and "keep alive" messages that indicate that a server is going down for a period of time. RADIUS is the legacy AAA solution for Password Authentication Protocol and Challenge Handshake Authentication Protocol. Virgin Media Recommended Reading: "Market Insight: 3D TV. Diameter supports more pending AAA requests. Samsung. Diameter supports 32-bit vendor-specific attributes. it is determined that the RADIUS protocol will not be sufficient to handle the increasing number of AAA requests. However.will be concentrated in markets where multi-TV-set households are starting to replace their second TVs. efficiency. Larger-Than-Life Expectations?" "Dataquest Insight: 3-D TV. The combination of reliable transport and keep-alive messages allows Diameter-based systems to detect and recover from server failures more efficiently. IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) architecture needs twice the security. which supports only eight bits.

Metaswitch Networks. admission control and service provisioning. Diameter interworking and traffic steering. tariff changes. as it will be useful in scenarios such as policy enforcement. the number of interfaces and complexity will increase. This architecture redirects video traffic away from the CMTS unit that handles the Internet Protocol (IP) data traffic and. with immediate goals of high quality of experience and service. The alternative for cable operators is to pass all IPTV traffic through the CMTS ports.LTE infrastructures. traffic management and load balancing tasks. Additionally. This approach maintains separate streams for video and data. should look to vendors with routing solutions using the Diameter protocol. most of the functionality performed by SS7 will have to be carried through Diameter. Inc. routes it through edge quadrature amplitude modulation (EQAM) units. as well as adding new infrastructure. Business Impact: When implementing an IMS or LTE network. The resulting architecture enables IP networks to grow incrementally and systematically to support increasing service and traffic demands. for example. While LTE defines Diameter-based rather than Signaling System 7 (SS7) interfaces. Solutions using Diameter signaling relieve LTE and IMS endpoints of routing. instead. the Diameter protocol supports subscriber roaming through Diameter policy exchange across CSPs. the lack of a capable signaling infrastructure poses a number of challenges from which Diameter protocol solutions promise to provide relief. As the adoption of Diameter-based solutions grows. There is no "one solution fits all" due to consolidation among CSPs and the inheritance of varying technologies and solutions. as traffic levels grow. CMTS bypass can reduce the load on CMTS ports by redirecting the cable operator's IPTV traffic. traffic shaping and optimization. and provide a single interconnect point to other networks. using offload and leveraging spectrum. So CSPs must use a multiplicity of tools to address the continuous increase in data consumption. even if the video is delivered as IP-based video. Tekelec CMTS Bypass Analysis By: Ian Keene Definition: Cable modem termination system (CMTS) bypass is an architecture that enables the deployment of IPTV technology on a cable network. | G00214660 . Radvision. creating the need to optimize networks for Diameter-related tasks. User Advice: Carriers should create a sequential road map for controlling the traffic explosion in a planned way and CSPs must be careful in order to provide adequate levels of control over subscribers and the infrastructure. we expect that the time to the Plateau of Productivity for the Diameter protocol will be two to five years. as it is better suited to handle the interdomain exchange of user information. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: F5. HCL Technologies. Page 24 of 139 Gartner. policy management. such as address resolution. Diameter routing can also add other advanced network functionalities. CSPs that have technology and network road maps targeted at increasing mobile subscriptions.

competition from wireline communications service providers (CSPs) with fiber-to-the-home and VDSL2 access networks. hence any lower cost attraction of CMTS bypass is diminished.0 has reached early mainstream adoption. MSOs are facing a dual challenge to their business models: on the one hand. but large MSOs will study the deployments by smaller cable providers. Cox Communications and Time Warner Cable. ■ ■ ■ User Advice: Larger service providers should examine reference points from early adopters as they consider CMTS bypass as one of a number of existing solutions for solving the challenges of bandwidth optimization and video delivery. the implementation and management processes demand caution.0. not just to set-top boxes. mainly by small and midsize cable providers. since it offers some potential benefits at a reasonable price and. There is a move by a growing number of MSOs to support IPTV delivery to a wide selection of devices such as smartphones and PCs. In the meantime. as CMTS costs reduce over time so the attraction of CMTS bypass fades somewhat. integration and implementation risks are more easily mitigated. Backed by Comcast. and when.0 CMTS. While there may be some benefits in deploying CMTS bypass. when EQAM units were significantly less expensive than CMTS hardware. demand for high-definition content is increasing and taxing the capacity of MSOs' broadcast video delivery architectures. many are looking to provide on-demand IPTV to their subscribers and CMTS bypass is an option to achieve this. on the other hand. CableLabs released an architectural overview of the Converged Cable Access Platform (CCAP) specification. An increasing amount of this available bandwidth is being consumed by over-the-top (OTT) video. CCAP integrates the functions of EQAM and DOCSIS 3. is raising the bar in regard to consumers' expectations for data bandwidth delivery. products are brought to market. with smaller footprints. Inc. In June 2011. CMTS bypass offers a potentially cost-effective alternative to addressing these issues. Networkwide implementations of CMTS bypass by large MSOs are doubtful during 2011 to 2012.CMTS bypass gained some traction back in 2006 to 2009. It still remains a valid solution for cable operators looking to deliver on-demand IPTV services. hence the relative bandwidth savings from CMTS bypass of IPTV traffic are being continually eroded. plus the ability to support passive optical network in the same chassis at the headend. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: There are a number of deployments of CMTS bypassbased IPTV in existence. doubt is cast on CMTS bypass ever reaching the Plateau of Productivity and mainstream deployment — for the following reasons: ■ Data-Over-Cable Service Interface Specification (DOCSIS) 3. delivering higher subscriber bandwidth through the DOCSIS 3. among others. Smaller players can be more aggressive in deployment of the technology. CMTS costs have reduced over time and are expected to continue to do so. | G00214660 Page 25 of 139 . Gartner. Take into consideration your strategy on OTT video. However. The long-term vision of most cable operators is moving toward an all-IP network. The concept of delivering IPTV via cable networks is an approach being considered for the evolution of multisystem operator (MSO) architecture into a converged IP-oriented model. However. This is likely to be favored over CMTS bypass in the three-year to five-year time period if.

support for spectrum up to 100 MHz. this offload does not apply to OTT video. WiMAX 802. The group behind the proposal — the IEEE 802.16m is a proposed technology for next-generation high-speed services. The specification continues to evolve. ■ Page 26 of 139 Gartner. Improved cell coverage. MSOs (as well as wireline CSPs) are looking at OTT video as a complementary delivery tool for video programming.m. This limitation looms large as MSOs analyze their alternatives for moving to an IPTV architecture — something that seems inevitable at some point as convergence becomes a more important factor in the evolution of video delivery business models. mostly as part of a convergence strategy. together with Long Term Evolution-Advanced (LTE-Advanced).Business Impact: Smaller players will benefit from a strategy of service expansion that is costeffective. Phillip Redman Definition: In April 2011. with "optimized" performance within 5 km. However. Harmonic. the CMTS bypass architecture may prove very beneficial in reducing costs: optimizing network capacity by offloading video traffic in IP format from the CMTS platform. As well as meeting the requirements for 4G mobile networks and ensuring backward compatibility with existing WiMAX technology. The plan is to release the final decision for the 4G standard in 2012. 2Q11 Update" "Forecast: Carrier Network Infrastructure. but currently includes a 100 Mbps downlink in mobile situations and a 1 Gbps downlink in nomadic situations. Worldwide. 2Q11 Update" WiMAX 802." These include backward compatibility with the WiMAX 802. Inc.16m Analysis By: Joy Yang. | G00214660 . or fourth-generation (4G) wireless communications. which is the fastest-growing type of video traffic in broadband networks.16m working group aims to achieve: ■ High spectral efficiency and voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) capacity. In the medium term. leading to data throughput rates of up to 1 Gbps. and time division duplexing/frequency division duplexing (TDD/FDD) modes. the WiMAX 802. Worldwide. multiple input/multiple output (MIMO).16m. the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) approved WiMAX 802. BigBand Networks.16e-2005 standard. also called Mobile WiMAX Release 2 or WirelessMAN-Advanced. Additionally.16 Broadband Wireless Access Working Group — has defined the main principles for ". Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Aurora Networks. 2008-2015. and "functional" performance at 30 km to 100 km. Motorola Recommended Reading: "Forecast Analysis: Carrier Network Infrastructure. "graceful" performance at 5 km to 30 km. It is being prepared and submitted to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) as a candidate for standardization for International Mobile Telecommunications-Advanced (IMT-Advanced). 2008-2015.

Assuming that the standard also supports full backward compatibility.16m.16m may ever be implemented. there is a decreasing chance that WiMAX 802. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Although the WiMAX 802. relay and intercell interference coordination. Also. MIMO. WiMAX 802.16m specification has been approved by IEEE and has been chosen as one of two candidates for the ITU's 4G standard. WiMAX 802.16m is competing directly with TDLTE or TD-LTE-Advanced.. However. also eliminated the potential WiMAX opportunity.16e-2005 has had limited rollout and support from Tier 1 operators. which were released in late 2010. As many WiMAX operators are already indicating a migration to LTE (Clearwire in the U. Samsung.■ Better handover capabilities than 802. Motorola. which will help WiMAX's market position.16m to meet operators' requirements for quality-of-service management. including network and device support for 3G cellular systems. and still has its niche market. This will improve WiMAX's ability to advance from current IT-grade services to telco-grade services. WiMAX will face challenges because of the strength of vendor support for and carrier adoption of TD-LTE. for example). The business case for WiMAX 802. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Embryonic Sample Vendors: Alvarion. Business Impact: The IEEE plans to add features to WiMAX 802. and Gartner expects less investment for 802. Currently. 802. Huawei. location-based services. smart antennas. Infrastructure and terminal vendors have made less effort to invest in WiMAX than in LTE. self-organization. terminal vendors and chipset vendors. The key technologies used in WiMAX 802. since most of the Indian BWA license holders have chosen to go with TD-LTE. Inc. carrier aggregation. User Advice: WiMAX technology is being challenged by the rapidly maturing TD-LTE technology.16m as a mobile solution is not clear. among other things. and to operate in licensed spectrum allocated for mobile and fixed broadband services and future IMT-Advanced services. 802.16m are orthogonal frequency division multiple access (OFDMA). there is weak support from the ecosystem.16m could become a competitive alternative to LTEAdvanced systems and could be used as a wireline replacement in many cases. ZTE Gartner.16m.16e has appeal as a last-mile access technology for fixed broadband networks in emerging markets. WiMAX 802. | G00214660 Page 27 of 139 . FDD and half-duplex FDD (H-FDD) schemes. which leaves little chance for 802. even if it is considered a true 4G alternative.16m is being developed to support TDD.16e when users are on the move — the technology should be able to maintain connections even when people are traveling in vehicles at speeds of 120 km/h to 350 km/h.S. The delayed broadband wireless access (BWA) licenses in India. security and interoperability with Wi-Fi networks and femtocells. including infrastructure vendors.

Page 28 of 139 Gartner. as was the case for Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) and wideband code division multiple access (WCDMA). including picocells and femtocells — the segment now called "small cells" — and should improve uplink speeds. is supposed to be the first version that is fully compliant with the International Telecommunication Union Telecommunication Standardization Sector (ITU-T) specification for fourth-generation (4G) systems — as LTE is actually technically still 3G/WCDMA. flexible spectrum usage and cognitive radio. or Yota in Russia). Network sharing as a concept to save money for carriers will be part of LTE-A. Backhaul could pose challenges. as adoption of a new wireless generation can easily take up to a decade. which may still take time. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: LTE-A standardization is likely to be complete by 2011 at the earliest. trials. certified infrastructure network equipment for LTE-A can be expected 18 to 24 months after the standardization is complete. However. User Advice: It is too early to plan for LTE-A for enterprises. Consumer and enterprise users can expect LTE-A to be positioned as a premium service initially.S. as today's CSPs struggle via WCDMA and LTE interworking. Some functionality proposals include relay nodes. such as LightSquared-Sprint in the U. LTE-A also has some implications in relay functions to create mesh networks and base station routing.LTE-A Analysis By: Sylvain Fabre Definition: Long Term Evolution Advanced (LTE-A). the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) Release 10. as well as another quantum leap in transport capacity needs. Although vendors of equipment are likely to yet again promise software-only upgrades. Business Impact: LTE-A aims mainly for high-speed wireless data for low-mobility users. LTE-A should be backward-compatible with LTE Release 8. CSPs should plan for some hardware changes on radio sites. early commercial rollouts and upgrades to LTE systems will start. and most backhaul networks are not able to handle 1 Gbps. Relays use over-the-air (OTA) links to macro base stations as backhaul connections. until around 2018. | G00214660 . and mass-market deployment will happen during the following five years. This should be achieved with scalable usage of up to 100 MHz of spectrum. and could lead to new operational models of mobile networks (some LTE networks already will be relying on sharing. LTE-A should support various cell types. as devices may get hundreds of Mbps — up to a theoretical limit of 1 Gbps — although no application needs hundreds of Mbps per user. which means 2013. The scoping of LTE-A is part of the ITU-T specification of 4G. Inc. We expect LTE-A to initially focus in urban areas of high data usage. as well as relay technologies to improve coverage. which will minimize backhaul transport for nearby peer-to-peer traffic. Therefore. It is also worth noting that direct access to macro base stations by user equipment in relay coverage may cause significant interference with relay base stations. or that at least that their vendors are designing LTE-A for backward-compatibility with LTE. the timeline for LTE-A could vary and depends on the success of LTE. Operators procuring LTE equipment should ensure that the equipment can be upgraded to LTE-A. The targeted peak rate for a downlink is 1 Gbps and for an uplink greater than 500 Mbps for stationary devices. After 2013. so OTA backhaul will need to be taken into consideration when choosing between relay access and direct access.

The use of smart antennas can reduce. Hype Cycle for Wireless Networking Infrastructure" "Dataquest Insight: IPR Issues Could Delay Growth in the Long Term Evolution Market" Smart Antennas Analysis By: Deborah Kish Definition: Smart antennas provide the signal-processing function behind antenna arrays. Ericsson. here we are referring to smart antennas specific to cellular systems (similar solutions are seen in neighboring areas — for example. | G00214660 Page 29 of 139 . or eliminate. How Mobile CSPs can Control the Mobile Data Explosion. Therefore. Smart antennas have become the basis of multiple input/multiple output (MIMO) technology. smart antennas are able to optimize the transmitter antenna beam. 2011" "Market Trends: Worldwide. However. MIMO can also be advantageous in femtocell Gartner. especially in WiMAX and LTE. Huawei. WiMAX and Long Term Evolution (LTE). eliminating the negative effects of multipath transmission. Beamforming in cellular networks has advanced through the various generations of mobile technology to reach higher-density cells with higher throughput. Inc. smart antennas can increase the signal to interference and noise ratio. MIMO technology places multiple antennas at both the source and the destination.11n]). It has played an integral part in the migration toward third-generation networks. and the channel capacity. Based on the calculation of the direction of the arrival of the signal. ZTE Recommended Reading: "Magic Quadrant for LTE Network Infrastructure" "Market Trends: Demand for LTE Infrastructure From CSPs. It is becoming a key technology in Time Division-Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access. Nokia Siemens Networks. the trouble caused by multipath wave transmission. The technology has two basic functions: beamforming and identifying the direction of the arrival of the signals. 2011" "Dataquest Insight: LTE and Mobile Broadband Market. Samsung. MIMO for Wi-Fi [802. cutout and intermittent reception. NEC.Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Embryonic Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. maximize the energy directed to the subscriber radio and minimize the energy radiated to other subscriber radios. Determining the direction of the signal is important because portions of the signal are scattered and late arrival of scattered signals causes problems such as fading. 1Q10 Update" "Emerging Technology Analysis: Self-Organizing Networks. Fujitsu. Smart antennas can be considered as a space division multiple access technology that will significantly increase the capacity in the same spectrum.

Smart antennas will be popular for mobile networks when LTE becomes more widely deployed. such as iPads and tablets. the notion of equipment sharing has been a point of discussion. If handset vendors could introduce the same technology into their devices. Inc. would help to improve the capacity of the channel. While smart antennas are a good solution to the traffic-related issues in mobile communications. it will be important for major chip vendors to produce the smart antenna technology module. User Advice: Adding more antenna arrays. Westell. and the adoption of other devices with mobile connectivity. The module that supports the process for realtime communications will be mandatory technology in the future after LTE build-outs become more apparent. Ruckus Wireless. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Wireless communications are increasing due to growth in subscriptions. The adoption of Apple's iPhone and Android-based phones. as well as increased mobile usage. In other aspects of telecommunications. smart antennas have been very useful in increasing channel capacity. reducing customer churn and increasing subscriber levels. femtocells are an emerging alternative within the enterprise. and it could be the same for smart antennas.deployment. The pressure on communications service providers (CSPs) to provide subscribers with more reliable services from a coverage perspective. Antenova. provisioning of advanced new services and an increase in data and multimedia traffic. Wireless carriers can benefit from smart antennas as they maximize spectral efficiency and provide improved coverage and QoS. As the technology will be more popular in the future. However. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Andrew Solutions. enabling a femtocell to switch between providing high data rates and strong transmission. Over time. as MIMO for Wi-Fi (802. has created service issues due to the increased traffic from mobile Internet usage. Smart antennas are positioned as a low-cost alternative to deploying additional cell sites. it would improve radio performance and help to reduce the power consumption of handsets. ArrayComm. Smart antennas have been deployed in most large wireless carrier networks to improve capacity and tackle overall quality of service (QoS) issues caused by increasing voice and data traffic. with smaller beam-width antennas. Consider smart antennas for cellular systems. mobile video streaming and application store activity. smart antennas have extended additional applications. it would also significantly increase the complexity of signal processing.11n) is already climbing up the Plateau of Productivity. is leaving them increasingly compromised. | G00214660 . CSPs need solutions that will assist with backhaul and traffic offload. and they can also be found as virtual antennas embedded in various residential wireless gateways. ZTE Page 30 of 139 Gartner. Business Impact: From a network perspective. Increased broadband penetration may also provide adoption opportunities for smart antenna technology in relation to femtocells. such as sharing. providing backhaul assistance. as well as normal everyday SMS data traffic usage.

and is now applied to DSL lines.2). Vendors are interested in demonstrating high user bandwidths for their VDSL2 solutions — in order to help compete on functionality rather than price as VDSL2 moves to a higher volume and more commoditized market position. This enhances the cancellation of cross talk between neighboring copper pairs in a cable. Inc. Since then. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: In terms of practical subscriber deployments. shipments continue to grow as a percentage of the total DSL market. Alcatel-Lucent demonstrated 300 Mbps over 400 meters using two bonded pairs. Vectoring requires a large amount of processing. Current vectoring chipsets can scale up to 32 lines. | G00214660 Page 31 of 139 . these laboratory demonstrations need to be developed and proven in the field. vectoring and phantom mode. Phantom mode is a technique that was used for creating extra lines in old analog networks.5). CSPs are also likely to want system-level vectoring. quality of the installed cables containing many copper pairs. and the availability of redundant copper pairs to enable bonding. However. ■ ■ For example.993. which increases as the square of the number of active twisted pairs in a cable. Copper twisted pair bonding requires that at least two twisted pairs are available for a subscriber. products that can process 100 or more lines will be needed.998. While some networks have this spare capacity. In April 2010. This utilizes two or more copper twisted pairs to increase the aggregate bandwidth to the subscriber. an increasing number of communications service providers (CSPs) are concerned that in future such bandwidth provision will not be sufficient to compete and to deliver new high-bandwidth services to subscribers — both consumer and business. Recent laboratory demonstrations and field trials of VDSL2 enhancements have used one or more of the following technologies: ■ Copper twisted pair bonding (International Telecommunication Union [ITU] standard G. Current VDSL2 deployments typically supply subscriber download speeds of 20 Mbps to 50 Mbps — depending on the length of the copper local loop and the quality of the cable. enabling higher bandwidths over longer distances. DSL "Phantom Mode" techniques that create a third virtual pair from two bonded copper pairs. as opposed to the Gartner. "Vectoring" (ITU standard G. During late 2010 and early 2011.VDSL2 Enhancements Analysis By: Ian Keene Definition: Very-high-bit-rate DSL (VDSL2) started to gain significant commercial traction in 2008 and 2009. in 2009 Ericsson demonstrated 500 Mbps over 500 meters using six bonded pairs and vectoring. One solution is to deploy fiber directly to the subscriber. vendors have been developing and productizing these demonstrated technologies. with deployments in networks worldwide. Huawei and Nokia Siemens Networks (among other vendors) have demonstrated significantly improved speeds over basic VDSL2. but for large-scale deployment. others do not. User bandwidth will depend upon the length of the copper local loop. but recent enhancements to the basic VDSL2 technology have promised to increase bandwidth to the point where the cost of fiber deployment may not be necessary. Since then.

Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent.current line card vectoring. Monitor vendor progress with product development and conduct field trials. available solutions may prove attractive for fiber-to-the-building architectures where the building serves multiple subscribers via VDSL2. Initial products suitable for high-volume deployment are expected in 2012 to 2013. | G00214660 . VDSL2 enhancement product development will increasingly become an interesting technology to track and test. Vendors need to focus on developing the components to deliver cost-effective high line count vectoring solutions. The standard may also have an impact in providing cellular network backhaul. 2Q11 Update" Mobile CDN Analysis By: Akshay K. User Advice: ■ CSPs should consider VDSL2 enhancements as both complementary and as an alternative to fiber-to-the-home deployments. Worldwide. ■ ■ ■ Business Impact: If low-cost high-performing products can be developed during 2011 to 2013. CSPs should initially consider VDSL2 enhancements. 2008-2015. Many CSPs will view this as an incremental opportunity to improve service revenue alongside the deployment of gigabit passive optical network technology — to replace their ADSL or ADSL2 networks. the cost and power consumption of the products currently under development is unclear and may not meet CSPs' needs. then VDSL2 enhancements will prove attractive to many CSPs as a way of providing higher bandwidth services without the need to bring fiber all the way to the home. However. 2Q11 Update" "Forecast: Carrier Network Infrastructure. With many CSPs building out their fiber networks much closer to subscriber premises. In the meantime. Inc. Nokia Siemens Networks Recommended Reading: "Emerging Technology Analysis: Next-Generation Broadband Access Caters for End-User Bandwidth Appetite" "Forecast Analysis: Carrier Network Infrastructure. Sharma Page 32 of 139 Gartner. particularly bonding and phantom mode. ECI Telecom. CSPs need to take into account both capital expenditure and any increased operating expenditure. with anticipated subscriber bandwidths of 50 Mbps to 150 Mbps. When considering the business viability of VDSL2 enhancements. Huawei. to enhance bandwidth availability to business customers. Worldwide. 2008-2015. Ericsson.

and offers improved latency via closer proximity to the user. may be more established. Secure Sockets Layer acceleration and dynamic application acceleration via optimization techniques. such as bandwidth optimization through caching and video transcoding. as well as intelligent optimization techniques. as part of an electronic software delivery solution. Although some elements of mobile offerings. an efficient and seamless experience will mean the difference between success and failure. the umbrella concept of a mobile CDN with global load balancing (redirecting sessions to optimal websites as people roam) is relatively new. such as the streaming of cached assets. but which are used to deliver mobile network services. Finally. expanding the range of application-fluent network services and facilitating relationships between e-commerce partners. transcoding and multicasting) are occurring in the mobile core. While common in fixed networks. Use of all of these services is also common within the e-commerce industry.Definition: A mobile content delivery network (CDN) is used to improve performance. It is like a traditional fixed CDN. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Gartner. where content offload is the most frequently used service. Mobile CDNs are a type of distributed computing infrastructure. but with added intelligence for device detection and content adaptation. As more consumers look to online service options for searching and acquiring content. including live streams. A mobile CDN offloads origin servers via edge caching. It can also be used to deliver software packages and updates. a mobile CDN may also provide services such as global load balancing. CDNs can assist in improving end-user performance. which is critical for mobile communications service providers (CSPs). and help to reduce bandwidth costs for high-volume and content-heavy sites. Business Impact: We believe that mobile CDNs will continue to increase the breadth and scope of these additional services. | G00214660 Page 33 of 139 . higher packet loss and huge variation in download capacity. where devices (servers or appliances) reside in multiple points of presence on multihop packet-routing networks (such as the Internet) or on private WANs. and technologies to solve the issues inherent in mobile networks. the mobile CDN is emerging as a new technique in mobile core networks. Newer optimization techniques (including video caching. Inc. User Advice: Wireless CSPs should carefully assess the opportunities for partnering with mobile CDNs. which have high latency. and rich-media delivery via progressive downloading is the most frequently used service. In the media sector all these uses are common. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Using a mobile CDN is less expensive than buying servers and bandwidth. scalability and cost efficiency. including advertisers. A mobile CDN can be used to distribute rich media — such as audio and video — as downloads or streams.

F5 Networks Recommended Reading: "Emerging Technology Analysis: Enterprise Video Content Management and Distribution. allowing better integration of back-office software with real-time NI. an Opportunity for Communications Service Providers" "Market Insight: LTE CSPs Can Offer Session Control of Carrier-Grade Solutions With Over-the-Top Web-Based Streaming Video" Network Intelligence Analysis By: Kamlesh Bhatia Definition: Network intelligence (NI) is an enabling technology that allows communications service providers (CSPs) to capture subscriber-. service assurance and security. as subscriber and network awareness become an integral part of new services. A nonstandard approach to NI has also made it difficult to integrate the underlying NI with traditional business intelligence and other business and operations applications. Ericsson. Page 34 of 139 Gartner.Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Akamai. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Adoption of NI as part of business and operations systems is driven largely by the need to have a more granular view of and control over subscriber consumption patterns. In addition. NI implemented as a stand-alone solution forms a middleware between the network and application layer. been embedded in proprietary hardware and software network technology. Standardization of interfaces and a platform-based OEM approach by specialized vendors will help to increase the uptake of integrated NI. service. tapping into NI in real time can significantly enhance the perceived value of the service and create new revenue opportunities. CSPs may want to integrate NI capability policy management to have more granular control of charging or service assurance with the aim of improving customer experience. This will. NI has. This information is then analyzed and exposed for integration with other applications in the back office. The solution is modular and can be deployed stand-alone. until now. Alcatel-Lucent. allowing CSPs to apply granular policies to influence customer experience and adapt to dynamic shifts in application and service usage. especially in Internet Protocol environments. policy management. This is essential as the number (and complexity) of applications increases and CSPs are faced with supporting hundreds of protocols and standards. in turn. We expect that modular NI software will help to close this gap.and application-level awareness contained in network traffic. allowing it to evolve independently of underlying network or application complexity. Inc. In some cases. revenue assurance. | G00214660 . The solution is based on nonproprietary hardware and software platforms and can be used by CSPs on any network. which has made it inflexible and unable to cope with the level of change (more protocols and features). play into the trend of making back-office applications more event-driven to monetize content and transaction services. AT&T. rather than being embedded in network elements such as routers or switches. This is especially relevant as CSPs face a surge in data consumption and as network upgrade costs outpace revenue growth. enhancing applications such as billing and charging. bandwidth management.

The cloud aspect refers to the fact that parts of the architecture for the base station is located in the cloud. Consider building robust NI capability that integrates with applications such as policy management.User Advice: ■ Evaluate bandwidth consumption patterns in your network to make a business case for an NI solution. so that CSPs may not necessarily have complete freedom of placement). smart/active antennas while beamforming alone can add extra capacity to a site. ipoque. create upsell opportunities and optimize resource consumption. | G00214660 Page 35 of 139 . charging and subscriber data management to address aspects of the revenue and customer life cycles. Technology development cycles are becoming shorter and require specialization. Gartner. Sandvine Cloud-based RAN Analysis By: Sylvain Fabre. from macro cells to "small cells" which would be typical of a heterogeneous network (also known as HetNets). Akshay K. Enhancing the functional capability of back-office applications by adding subscriber and network awareness can help CSPs to improve customer experience. as well as a more efficient use of resources. Inc. Generally. at the right location and so on. For example. typically this would be the control elements. Qosmos. ■ ■ Business Impact: Granular understanding of subscriber and network behavior is vital to monetize data and new content-based services. with some variations based on the vendor. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Cisco. through lower site costs because of a reduced footprint (although the site still needs to be of the right height. Sharma Definition: We define cloud-based radio access networks (RANs) as a new architecture for the mobile RAN that combines several key attributes. One of the clear goals of this technology is cost savings for the communications service provider (CSP). including Long Term Evolution. The use of self-organizing networks allows a unified management of the network with the mix of cell sizes. Work with vendors that offer standardization in their approach and a high level of modularity. Keep in mind the influence on new product development of enhanced subscriber and application awareness. Revenue and subscriber intelligence is crucial to monetize investment in advanced networks. radio network controller or mobility management entity. capacity will be directed where usage requires it rather than being allocated equally across the cell — using. such as the base station controller. for example baseband processing. for example. parts of the architecture of the base transceiver station can be pooled and shared among several sites.

more data is needed to establish if having many more such very small cells will be cheaper than fewer. Nokia Siemens Networks Recommended Reading: "Magic Quadrant for LTE Network Infrastructure" "Forecast: Mobile Data Traffic and Revenue. online video platform provider (OVPP) capabilities. with Alcatel-Lucent. when compared to a legacy single RAN architecture. portable tools for the creation of scheduled and ad hoc live broadcasts. This space has evolved from consumer webcam videocasts to a clear bifurcation between a growing number of professional news organizations and consumer webcasts. | G00214660 . complete with content distribution network (CDN) agreements. and applications that run on smartphones and FireWire-connected video cameras. for example.Position and Adoption Speed Justification: So far. this concept provides a distributed architecture where components can be placed in different locations. 2010-2015" "Emerging Technology Analysis: Self-Organizing Networks. However. Inc. User Advice: CSPs should consider this architecture for areas where new site acquisition is an issue due to cost or local regulations issues. Hype Cycle for Wireless Networking Infrastructure" Socialcasting Analysis By: Allen Weiner Definition: Socialcasting provides lightweight. Livestream and Kyte are working with local and Page 36 of 139 Gartner. Business Impact: For CSPs. and capacity can be dynamically allocated where it is most needed. The socialcasting components include back-end. Such firms as Qik (now part of Skype). larger traditional sites. Ustream. microwave transmission) or to create live broadcasts in difficult-to-reach areas. Professional news organizations use socialcasting ("backpack journalism") to cut costs in mobile broadcasts (truck rolling. Worldwide. its Light Radio concept could reduce the total cost of ownership by over 50%. the main proponents of this architecture are Alcatel-Lucent with its Light Radio concept and Nokia Siemens Networks with Liquid Radio. It will take several more of the leading vendors to present their products for this segment to be considered mature and stable enough to gain wider CSP adoption. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. claiming that in the context of Long Term Evolution and small cells. or where current sites no longer allow larger form factors to be installed for RAN equipment. Freescale Semiconductor. An example is Fox News' use of Kyte's (now part of Kit Digital) socialcasting services to broadcast from Haiti using smartphones. Significant cost savings are advanced by vendors in this space. The very small form factor with system-on-chip components means that the antenna equipment on site can be so small that it is no longer visible.

The intent of socialcasting is for the video to be viewed live. friends and fans who have the service. a need for media firms to differentiate will help drive socialcasting. mobile phones or televisions. For concerts. while the action is happening. sporting events and special events. Business Impact: Google's entry into socialcasting moves this technology up the Hype Cycle slightly as the market for social TV begins to heat up. depending on how Google uses the new socialcasting service within YouTube as an element in its Google TV strategy. live content streams are becoming a differentiator as part of their service packages. OVPPs are positioned to offer end-to-end solutions that include encoding on the fly. In early 2011. Most consumers do not know that socialcasting capability is an option for them or how to do it. not as a separate endeavor. should look to create socialcasts in support of a new TV show in which the show's star or producer is featured in a socialcast to enable live interaction to promote the new offering. Socialcasting allows both one-to-one and one-to-many broadcasting over ad hoc networks. photos or video clips from their mobile phones directly to other PCs. Socialcasting offerings for consumers are services for end users to broadcast live video streams. live has a place in the future of social TV. or when the content is for a large audience. and socialcasting provides an easy. although content is posted at an Internet site when the intended recipients are not available to view the videos live. on-the-scene coverage. Google announced that YouTube would begin experimenting with "socialcasts" on an inviteonly basis. YouTube's entry into this space may be a disrupter. Marketing is necessary to educate the consumer in order for socialcasting to become mainstream. | G00214660 Page 37 of 139 . for example. Inc. because there is no control over the subject matter and video quality. Socialcasting also includes elements of social TV in that socialcasting platforms often include links to or direct feeds to Facebook and Twitter. A TV network. Socialcasting needs to be viewed as a component of that vision.national broadcasters as well as publishers that want to enhance their content offerings. established path to execute that strategy. Socialcasting also provides an easy platform to include social media as part of a live broadcast strategy. With the number of enhanced TV platforms Gartner. Sponsors are less willing to have their advertisements associated with content from individual consumers. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The opportunity in this space will continue to expand as both incumbent and new digital publishers look to add more immediacy and social interaction to their content portfolios. but as the demand for video continues to grow. User Advice: Live content is becoming an increasingly large part of the future of television. distribution. Socialcasters can send live video to specific family members. The consumer opportunity will continue at a fairly steady pace. Socialcasting can also be viewed from a cost-savings perspective as local and national news media do more with less and perhaps trade some level of broadcast fidelity for continued live. One reason socialcasting by consumers is not more strongly promoted is that socialcasting for business is often supported by advertising. For OVPPs such as Flumotion. social media application development and analytics.

such as support for multiple channels (e. The insights obtained from analyzing customer-agent interactions provide new perspectives on customer understanding and organizational feedback. User Advice: Calculate the potential value-add of this integrated analytical technology suite above and beyond the siloed technologies. screen (i. such as email or Web chat). therefore. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Google. but adoption within contact centers is less than 1%. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Page 38 of 139 Gartner.. ranging from Apple to Google's efforts in this space.. the ROI potential) won't be known until the investment has been made. operations (such as call length or transfers or Web chat durations). because the insights (and. These problems are likely to be overcome during the next two years. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Interaction analytics solutions are beginning to appear in the market. call flow dynamics (such as speaking at the same time or pauses in the conversation).e. socialcasting might be poised for a greater market acceptance.e.g.emerging. Early deployments have delivered high value. The solutions lack maturity. Ustream Contact Center Interaction Analytics Analysis By: Jim Davies Definition: Interaction analytics solutions provide a holistic understanding of customer-agent interactions through the combined analysis of multiple data streams associated with the interaction. such as speech analytics or performance management. fueling accelerated adoption during the next few years. and many have functional omissions. Qik. Inc. Kyte. The data analyzed includes the dialogue (i. The challenge is in building the business case. chat and email). what the agent was doing on his or her desktop) and customer feedback (through the capture of postinteraction survey data). the audio or text. emotion (customer and agent). | G00214660 . as well as provide customer and departmental insights (such as customer perceptions of a marketing campaign or a new product pricing strategy). Business Impact: Deployment in a contact center may uncover a diverse range of insights that can be used to improve the performance of the contact center and its agents.. Livestream. Pay particular attention to the technical architecture and ensure alignment with the organization's overall customer analytics strategy.

Jean-Claude Delcroix Definition: A convergent communications advertising platform (CCAP) is a scalable. content. business support systems (BSSs) and operations support systems (OSSs). Multimedia Messaging Service [MMS]. advertising exchanges or links to them. business intelligence (BI). response management. "Convergent" means interoperable with several types of devices.Sample Vendors: Autonomy etalk. initial implementations of convergent platforms may be limited to one basic type of telecom offering — mobile communications or multichannel video. Over time. but also connects to other subsystems and common data management systems to exchange relevant customer data. These isolated advertising solutions do not build on a CSP's cross-service user advertising network data. gateways and interfaces. for example — as long as they handle advertising bound to several individual services and different types of content in relation to user profiles managed in a unified way. charging and rating. Short Message Service [SMS]. network and device data. CSPs that intend to "monetize" their unique competitive position may implement Gartner. or to specific groups. agency management. However. advertisement forwarding to users. rule and recommendation engines. campaign metrics. with different maturity levels. It may extend to machine-to-machine (M2M) services such as public displays or public terminals. A CCAP draws on user-related and contextual data that is controlled or collected by CSPs. Verint Systems At the Peak Convergent Communications Advertising Platforms (CCAPs) Analysis By: Mentor Cana. and perhaps advertisers in self-service mode. multichannel set of interrelated applications and technologies used by communications service providers (CSPs) to deliver targeted advertising services. applications and telecom services (such as fixed voice. on a customer-by-customer basis. in a variety of situations. such as a user's location. would most likely interface with CCAPs using APIs. TV/video. however. some being just Internet applications not specific to CSPs. and service delivery platforms (SDPs). a CCAP includes a range of dedicated processes and data systems. advertiser management. billing. several non-convergent telecommunications-based advertising solutions exist. user data. Other providers in the value chain. status and type of device. fixed and mobile Internet. CCAPs require deep integration with communications services data. car displays and train displays). network presence. various types of analytics. Today. Market analysis and advertising design in the broadest sense may never become a strength of CSPs but that does not limit the potential of the CCAP as a platform. advertisement content management. Inc. security and privacy (opt in and opt out). mobile voice. The scope of a CCAP may include capabilities and data such as: general advertisement processing. digital rights management. e-books. Nice Systems. which may be accessed through network-exposure APIs. From an architectural point of view. Combining real-time location-based contextual data with specific customer demographic and service information by means of sophisticated analytics and business rules allows CSPs to deliver dynamically targeted advertising content. | G00214660 Page 39 of 139 . These include CRM. campaign management. storage.

but does not yet offer converged advertising. Orange is working on algorithms to process user profiles and has announced a co-operative venture with OpenX. interactive services. Inc. due to its many acquisitions. This approach does not come without challenges and risks (over-the-top [OTT] advertising companies also targeting TI's mobile and IPTV subscribers). including a video-related advertising platform. AT&T's directory advertising business accounts for 3. The lack of advertising-related open and standardized data models and interfaces further challenges the evolution of CCAPs. As CSPs are slow to move into advertising. CSPs' CIOs see the need for system integration when they are faced with multiple applications dealing with user profiles and context data. Few (if any) platforms cover all screens and all channels. Oracle and Amdocs also offer a broad solution. advertisement exchanges and the selling of aggregated user data and analytics to advertising agencies.converged platforms. Software vendors targeting the telecom industry in the broad sense will progressively integrate their multiple applications and will likely include CCAPs. vendors will try two Page 40 of 139 Gartner. Such a platform will increase its value by linking and co-operating with advertising agencies. mainly to promote their own services. for instance). AOL has probably the largest set of technologies and companies supporting advertising.2% of its revenue (with $1 billion from online advertising). covering mobile advertisements. which are moving away from silos into an end-to-end environment that covers multiple services and network technologies. In the video world. but it has also given TI an opportunity for additional revenue sources. partly through acquisitions. to give one example. games and social networking. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: CSPs started to use mobile advertising in 2001. 2010 and 2011 appear to be years of transition. voice and other channels. which is available on 40 million devices. Orange. the need for CSPs to offer advertising is gathering pace. devices and services they operate. mobile advertising gained momentum. Today. social networks and related advertising are leading the hype in 2011. After the 2009 retraction of the advertising market. It may fully exploit Web 2. AT&T has also lunched a location-based SMS advertising initiative targeting shoppers in supermarkets. new forms of BI. the need for them has become recognized. Instead.0 technologies. such as video and SMS. to set up a European advertising exchange. spanning the different networks. Microsoft is also offering broad video and TV solutions. The move toward a CCAP in terms of CSP architecture is similar to the convergence in telecom operations management systems. Since the first appearance of CCAPs on this Hype Cycle in 2007. Moreover. It is building further on the directory advertising business with its Yellow Pages (YP) app. content distribution services (for music and IPTV. | G00214660 . CSPs are slow in adopting a convergent or integrated approach to delivering content and advertising in a massive and productive way. but still related CSP technology is not at its peak. Several vendors are emphasizing convergent and integrated solutions now through advertising platforms with a rich set of features. In particular. the implementation of advertising solutions is progressing through narrow approaches. but revenue remained — and still remains — relatively low. An example of a CSP building a converged advertising platform is Telecom Italia's (TI's) purchase of Italy's well known Internet brand Virgilio. an advertising technology and service firm. provides similar content across fixed and mobile networks. In mid-2011. such as mashups and user-generated content. in essence providing TI with an integrated Internet advertising platform that also includes an ad agency (Niumidia Adv). In 2005 and 2006. Neither the development nor the penetration of advertising by CSPs will be very fast.

As the needs for integrated and convergent systems related to advertising emerge within CSPs. Major obstacles are regulations and consumer trends in personal data protection. particularly in mobile. We believe that CSP CCAPs will reach the Plateau of Productivity between 2016 and 2019. Such convergent platforms. CCAPs can offer lucrative solutions for advertisers: linking advertising directly to sales results. and IPTV/video and new connected devices (e-books. A CCAP will enable CSPs to play a new role in the online advertising and content market. and by the incremental inclusion of advertising channels across service offerings. At the same time. CSPs should consider vendors that offer integration expertise and solutions in massive data management and storage. tablets and public digital displays). a CCAP would make it easier to deal with privacy protection in a uniform way due to its integrated and unified approach to consumer data. addressing the questions of "which customer?. IPTV and multichannel telecom-based advertising. technologies and processes encompassing the end-to-end advertising solutions. data can be grouped to offer instant topical or local trends. CSPs should determine a strategic path concerning the role they might be able to play in the advertising ecosystem. we see a new interest in offering cloud-based value-added services and advertising to CSPs or with CSPs. both by the incremental integration of advertising-related support systems and applications." "where?" and "when?" Real-time interactive solutions work better with convergent solutions. Social networks within wireless communities are becoming increasingly important for advertisers. Indeed. CSPs should favor systems that: (1) build on all their services.alternative options: to sell advertising platforms to media companies and to offer advertising as a service. When related to payments and purchases. Based on the assessment. and (3) connect well within their service-oriented architecture and business process management systems. Beyond collection of user and context data. | G00214660 Page 41 of 139 . In addition. they should assess their expertise across the different systems. Only a convergent platform will enable a CSP to play to its strengths. presence data. driven by business models that maximize their profits. Inc. as they give consumers the option to watch something on IPTV and then comment on it or forward it via a mobile phone or the Internet. We forecast moderate revenue growth through 2012. With convergent advertising it will be possible to improve targeted advertising. (2) minimize duplication with their data systems. CSPs may capitalize on their user information assets in progressive steps. It is the intelligent converging of customer data and context that creates a CSP's profiling power. searching and browsing history. mobile data. such as mobile services. Two major technology trends will boost the need for CSP advertising platforms: (1) the growth of mobile data services with location information. For analytics. CSPs should look for marketing knowledge as much as tools. Internet content and portals. multichannel interactive advertising will give advertisers a better understanding of customer behavior across locations and time slots. Business Impact: The benefits of convergent advertising stem from more comprehensive and coherent profiling of customers — including demographics. SMS. and communications. location data and local time. security and content management. and (2) the growth of the IPTV and mobile TV user base. User Advice: Utilizing their strength in a synergistic approach. along with converged Gartner. Moreover. as well as CSPs' difficult business transformation.

Wmode. such as the progressive transformation of CSPs' business models over time (as CSPs are identifying new revenue opportunities beyond their traditional offerings). will introduce challenges and risks for CSPs with respect to the adoption and implementation of CCAPs. As a result of these challenges and risks. with varying success. This knowledge can be further utilized to design new offers. CSPs with a multitude of service offerings and channels and a large user base will attempt to implement more comprehensive CCAPs. RGB.services. Zad Mobile Recommended Reading: "Dataquest Insight: New Revenue Opportunities for Telecom Carriers. Communications Service Provider Operations. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Acision. as well as the progressive transformation of the media and advertising landscape. | G00214660 . Capgemini. 2010" IPX for LTE Analysis By: Deborah Kish. 2010" "Key Issues for Media. to better serve their customers. Alcatel-Lucent. email. will support new CSP business models by increasing indirect revenue — that is. Convergent advertising platforms will cover both fixed and mobile communications. as well as advertising and marketing skills. However. Citex Software. A successful advertising strategy is also required. The competitive position of CSPs will depend not only on the market's acceptance of CSP-based solutions. Sylvain Fabre Page 42 of 139 Gartner. 2013" "Emerging Technology Analysis: Convergent Communications Advertising Platforms. instant messaging. revenue beyond that related to transmission services. 2011" "Market Trends: Worldwide. or flavors of offers. Comverse Technology. Openet. IBM. 2010" "Hype Cycle for Media Industry Advertising. Other factors. Oracle. Pure mobile CSPs also need convergent platforms that link advertising across different services. Medio Systems. Inc. Amdocs. route planning. Mobixell. location. MADS. Operating a CCAP will provide CSPs with additional analytics and BI based on how their customers consume advertising and the context within which the ads were consumed. it is expected that CSPs will adopt CCAPs to varying degrees. SLA Mobile. a CCAP on its own is not a guarantee of success for a CSP. CSP Mobile Marketing and Advertising. payment and video services. Atos Origin. Huawei. It is unknown which CSPs will use their strengths to compete in the advertising market. Competition in telecommunications and regulations on data protection will also determine adoption rates. games. Some CSPs will implement minimal advertising capabilities. such as the mobile Internet.

| G00214660 Page 43 of 139 . ISPs. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: With CSPs transitioning to LTE. Telenor Global Services and TeliaSonera International Carrier. Services not requiring premium quality can use less demanding QoS bearers.gsmworld. CITIC Telecom International. ■ ■ It is not evident to end users whether or not their service provider uses the IPX model. IPX is an evolution of the GPRS Roaming Exchange. but it does offer an alternative for CSPs. It provides for end-to-end quality of service (QoS) in support of both roaming and interworking for Long Term Evolution (LTE) and IP Multimedia Subsystem via an IP-based network-to-network interface (NNI). Operators are free to select bilateral or efficient multilateral modes of interconnection for different types of traffic.com/our-work/programmes-and-initiatives/ipnetworking/ip_exchange. Sybase 365. IPX Precommercial Implementation trials have been ongoing since April 2007. IPX is not intended to replace or compete with the Internet.Definition: IP eXchange (IPX) was developed by the GSMA in collaboration with communications service provider (CSP) members to foster open standardized Internet Protocol (IP) connectivity for multiple types of service providers (mobile. Deutsche Telekom International Carrier Sales & Solutions. In February 2008. iBasis.htm. but the ability for CSPs to differentiate services using the flexibility provided by the IPX model ultimately provides for end-user choice. fixed. All IP traffic is protected. Reach. focusing particularly on packet switched voice services. such as BICS. Inc. quality of experience and the ability to differentiate services. Telecom New Zealand International. From 2004 onward. quality and security. Telekom Austria. The intent of IPX is to provide interoperability of IP-based services between all service provider types within a commercial framework that enables all parties in the value chain to receive a commercial return. Payments associated with the business model are identified and settled between operators. For more information. The commercial relationships are underpinned with SLAs that guarantee performance. The principles of IPX have been successively tested and validated by the GSMA. IPX promises QoS. GSMA Session Initiation Protocol trials tested an IP-based NNI with numerous IMS-based services. application service providers). Gartner. Telecom Italia Sparkle. Tata Communications. the GSMA indicated that IPX trials had been completed successfully and that several international carriers were preparing to roll out IPX services. A GSMA working group called Roaming and Interconnect in LTE is responsible for defining how roaming and interconnection will be enabled in LTE. Some key components of IPX are: ■ ■ ■ IPX traffic has managed QoS at various levels of performance. as well as CSPs emphasizing quality of customer experience. BT. go to: www. Telefonica International Wholesale Services. Syniverse Technologies. data roaming and interconnect will be an issue.

In June 2011. the Amsterdam Internet Exchange launched a service-level interconnection to large IPX networks. Telecom Italia Rich Communication Suite Analysis By: Deborah Kish. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Acme Packet. CSPs can expect a common charging principle and a technically interoperable end-to-end network. Sybase. Those involved in agreements sign up to a security code of conduct creating a trusted community. the IPX creates an environment that is above and beyond the traditional "clearing houses" used in regular Global System for Mobile Communications/wideband code division multiple access networks. such as the U. CSPs can also decide to use IPX by choosing the service they want to interwork over the IPX on an individual service basis and the CSPs with which they want to interwork. RCS aims to provide features and benefits in the following three phases/releases: Page 44 of 139 Gartner. security will always be of the highest importance. Charlotte Patrick Definition: Rich Communication Suite (RCS) services bring together a number of different functionalities into a single place on the consumer's device. Inc. SLAs between CSPs and more flexibility for end users. The Apple iPhone address book is an early example of part of intelligent address book functionality. therefore we see it nearing the Peak of Inflated Expectations. Based on when we expect LTE to become more apparent. allowing the user to start an email. Business Impact: For mobile CSPs and end users. and Japan. see an address in Google Maps and click on any telephone number to call or text — these are not part of RCS.S. Since the trials in 2008. Deutsche Telekom.IPX is dominated largely by European carriers and is still not considered a global phenomenon. Tata Communications. so they are unable to access the core networks involved in the management and delivery of IP services. it is likely that IPX will reach the Plateau of Productivity in two to five years and that it will gain wider adoption in other regions as LTE blossoms in other markets. Because the IPX is not accessible from the Internet. CSPs. Enduser terminals and devices have no visibility of the IPX. | G00214660 . Deutsche Telekom has announced an IPX platform that offers security. Other CSPs such as Orange and TeliaSonera have also launched IPX capabilities. Additionally. Doing so leads to agreements containing specific connectivity models. followed by Android-based phones. reliability options and multiple QoS levels. User Advice: As IPX services are standardized. as part of the value chain and managed network. Syniverse Technologies. can expect payment for the IP services they provide at specific quality levels. attacks are not possible.

User Advice: Equipment and technology vendors and software developers should focus on creating case studies. members and scope of RCS. RCS's position has advanced in the Hype Cycle and is now nearing the Trough of Disillusionment. | G00214660 Page 45 of 139 . ■ ■ For a full description of the features. content sharing and enhancements to sharing and presence. the initiative has still not gone live and communications service provider (CSP) participation varies from region to region. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The RCS initiative continues to develop across three phases that will consist of broadband access. It was developed in 2008 and was the steppingstone to define a stable and proven framework. For legacy messaging. however. They should be aggressive with making trials reality. focuses on consolidating the Release 2 features and adds some enhancements. They should mitigate risk by continuing to invest in other service initiatives and/or equipment. such as joint innovation labs. initially defined in February 2010. Business Impact: It is hard to forecast the likely success of RCS as there are unknown factors concerning user experience. interworking guidelines and technical reference implementation. a PC connected via a wireless LAN access point). such as IBM and Oracle. The value of the RCS platform needs to be proved by real-world examples. CSPs should use RCS to support IMS as a service delivery platform and consider offering software suites either as cloud or hosted services to enterprise customers. goals. RCS clients connected via broadband access can only send SMS messages. such as the IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) Primary Device feature.■ Release 1 focuses on voice. such as Mobile 2. They are not able to receive SMS messages or to send/receive Multimedia Messaging Service messages. Release 2 was introduced in mid-2009 and focuses on RCS services becoming accessible via broadband access. Due to the length of time since the inception of RCS and sporadic launches. either organically or by working with software vendors.com/our-work/mobile_lifestyle/rcs/index. however. They should work toward developing applications that differentiate them from the competition.htm). The farther out RCS is pushed. Alternatives exist that are less costly. the more likely it is that it will fail to take off. While Release 1 was defined for mobile devices. application stores and inter-CSP initiatives. while in Europe and Asia/Pacific there is more activity and participation in RCS. next-generation service delivery platforms. such as whether consumers will find the intelligent address book Gartner. which allows customers to use broadband access as the primary device in the absence of mobile devices. The RCS Release 3. messaging and enhanced phonebook capabilities for mobile devices.0 (as over-thetop and cloud-based providers [such as Skyfire] have). For example. as well as geolocation information. Release 2 extends the use of rich communication services to other devices with broadband access (that is. and some have decided to develop RCS as an enterprise software package in order to reach critical mass. Inc. visit the GSMA's website (www.gsmworld. coupled with a nonworldwide adoption. The supported RCS services via broadband access are identical to the services already defined in Release 1. Many technology and software vendors continue to be involved in RCS. North American CSPs have a tendency to simply develop rich applications on their own.

The next-generation technology using Long Term Evolution (LTE) is the first all Internet Protocol (IP) network. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. Ericsson. 2009" "Dataquest Insight: The Future for Telecommunications Operators in Social Networking" "Dataquest Insight: Telecom Service Providers: Evolving Toward the 2015 Horizon" "Dataquest Insight: Carriers Can Keep Control of LTE With IMS" "Network Operators Should Strive to Be Community Owners. Nokia Siemens Networks. which could trigger additional or simultaneous communication sessions. rather than the packet-switched technology they use for data transmissions. such as picture sharing with voice. It could also encourage them to use more niche functionality. and to act as a portal to their social contacts (rather than allowing entities such as social network sites to own the relationship completely). In February 2010. By having these functionalities. which will include support for voice. such as video. Critical Path. Inc. which would not have taken place previously.features very attractive on devices with smaller screens or whether the mass market of customers will be interested in some of the more complex pieces of RCS functionality. It is also unclear whether the initiative's road map is moving at sufficient speed to ensure commercial success. therefore increasing the average revenue per unit. consumers are likely to increase their general use of mobile data and voice services. ■ Ownership of this type of functionality allows the operator. Voice standards over LTE haven't been fully decided on yet. | G00214660 . with most providers looking to the voice over LTE (VoLTE) standard. led by the Global Page 46 of 139 Gartner. The possible benefits that will drive trials and deployments among CSPs include: ■ Consumers' ability to see the status of friends. Not Technology Providers" VoIP Wireless WAN Analysis By: Phillip Redman Definition: Wireless network service providers deliver voice over circuit-switched technology. Metaswitch Networks. The functionality may increase subscriber stickiness. Huawei. Motorola. Sony Ericsson Recommended Reading: "Dataquest Insight: Are Carriers Leaving Money on the Table With HalfDeployed IMS Architectures?" "Key Issues for Carrier Service and Control Infrastructure. device manufacturer or over-the-top player to have a degree of influence over consumers' choice of communication service.

The GSMA's VoLTE initiative has the backing of more than 40 organizations across the mobile ecosystem. which results in lower quality and an inconsistent experience. rather than on the voice for these networks. They support the principle of a single Information Management System (IMS)based voice solution. | G00214660 Page 47 of 139 . However. current high-speed networks support VoIP. Gartner expects initial rollouts of this service. fring. Although this isn't being supported today. and it can also enable the simultaneous use of voice and data on a device. Business Impact: There is still little use of VoWWAN capabilities. This is the reverse of what was proposed by a contingency looking to evolve using voice over LTE via Generic Access (VoLGA). VoIP also could support many softphones. It will still be four or five years before the transition away from 2G voice to third-generation (3G)/LTE voice support begins. Most cellular infrastructure vendors. handset manufacturers and equipment vendors. which could drive costs lower to support wireless voice services. The use of IP in the wireless link for packetized voice transmission (as compared with circuitswitched transmission) comprises a voice over IP (VoIP) wireless wide-area network (WWAN). Verizon WDM-PON Analysis By: Ian Keene Gartner. VoIP could add 20% to 40% in additional capacity on all IP networks. but it is not supported for cellular calling. LTE networks are only now being deployed. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: With the launch of LTE. but without quality of service. which will be run over LTE. which are ubiquitous and offer low-cost calling. Low-cost alternatives to support voice still abound. Look to third-party fixed mobile convergence (FMC) systems to support handoff and higher-quality voice. User Advice: Although some smartphones support VoIP clients that can use 3G networks. Consumer users of popular VoIP services also want to extend that capability to their mobile phones. including many of the world's leading mobile operators. Inc. many in the industry came forward to support VoLTE. which will increase the number of devices that support mobile voice capabilities. network carriers took a step forward toward supporting voice over WWAN (VoWWAN). and most calls worldwide are still going over second-generation (2G) GSM systems. during the next few years.System for Mobile Association (GSMA). Skype. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: AT&T. It is also the main technology to support FMC and mobile unified communications. so much of the focus and revenue will be directed toward data capabilities. Many companies have begun to support VoIP and are looking for the same support outside their offices. Some operators continue to use VoIP for push-to-talk over cellular services. voice traffic is will be subsumed by the increasing data traffic. In the end.

to significantly reduce operating expenditure. but wait for standardization and component innovation that produces steep price erosion before deploying. Despite this. The use of multiple wavelengths increases the capacity of WDM-PON systems beyond those where multiple users share the same wavelength. before WDM-PONs can pass the Trough of Disillusionment. approved standards need to be in place and the technology needs further innovation and maturity to reduce component costs. WDM-PONs will. User Advice: Ensure you include WDM-PONs when evaluating future network scenarios. Inc. Indeed. | G00214660 .Definition: Wavelength division multiplexing passive optical network (WDM-PON) solutions are characterized by: (a) the use of a passive fiber tree. the use of dedicated wavelengths requires more advanced optical components and. With a premium cost related to the more advanced optical components. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The challenge facing current-generation gigabit PON (GPON)/Ethernet PON (EPON) technologies is more related to deployment cost than to limited capacity. with a reach of up to 100 km. which WDM-PON suppliers emphasize as a security benefit over traditional PON architectures with shared wavelengths. While WDM-PON has beaten 10-Gigabit PON (10GPON) in terms of getting nonstandardized products to the market. WDM can scale to 1. therefore. If products that are stable under variable temperatures can be brought to market at an effective price. the most likely success scenario for widespread deployments of the more advanced WDM-PON solutions is an upgrade scenario unfolding when current-generation PON deployments start to run out of bandwidth or when the additional cost of WDM-PON becomes negligible from a total-cost-ofownership perspective.000 wavelengths. compete against 10G-PON upgrade solutions. therefore. in these scenarios. as found in other PON technologies. as is the development of 40-Gigabit-PON (40G-PON) or 100-Gigabit-PON (100G-PON) systems. then WDM-PON has the potential to significantly reduce the number of central offices needed by a communications service provider (CSP) and. and the use of WDM splitters in the fiber tree means that any user receives only the intended wavelength. WDM-PON suppliers face a cost challenge that must be overcome before WDM-PONs will find widespread use. therefore. WDM-PON is being standardized by the International Telecommunication Union. supplying ultrahigh bandwidths to subscribers without the need for localized central office infrastructure and. and (b) the use of dedicated wavelengths for each user. WDMPONs also have potential applications in the backhaul and business market segments. The combination of 10G-PONs and WDM-PONs is a potential long-term scenario. However. For a more detailed discussion of 10G-PON and WDM-PON." Some deployments of residential WDM-PONs have already taken place in South Korea. the standardization of WDM-PON is not complete and it is uncertain when final standards will emerge. Business Impact: WDM-PONs offer a future upgrade path for CSPs that have deployed currentgeneration PON solutions. more than 1 Gbps per wavelength. Page 48 of 139 Gartner. supported by the Next-Generation Access initiative from the Full Service Access Network. with reduced operating costs. the time it is expected to take for WDM-PONs to reach the Plateau of Productivity exceeds the corresponding estimate for 10G-PONs — mainly because of the expected price premium related to the more advanced optical components already mentioned. see "Emerging Technology Analysis: 10G and WDM PON.

In practice. Worldwide. However. there will need to be expert operations. this would be the network running and managing itself. still need to be measured. 2008-2015. as ongoing LTE trials and early deployments continue to yield results and operators have a clearer idea of how to run their LTE networks. In a nutshell.Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Adva Optical Networking. Tellabs Recommended Reading: "Emerging Technology Analysis: Next-Generation Broadband Access Caters for End-User Bandwidth Appetite" "Emerging Technology Analysis: 10G and WDM PON" "Forecast Analysis: Carrier Network Infrastructure. In the extreme. but SONs may reduce the total numbers. fault management and fault correction function at the base station of an LTE or the next-generation mobile network. Inc. They should help mobile operators to manage the coverage. a SON is likely to be used gradually as an adjunct to human operators for planning. effective opex savings. 2Q11 Update" "Forecast: Carrier Network Infrastructure. 2Q11 Update" Self-Organizing Networks Analysis By: Sylvain Fabre Definition: Self-organizing networks (SONs) are a key feature of Long Term Evolution (LTE) and next-generation networks. But at its most basic. SONs will provide a self-configuration. Vendors push this feature for its operating expenditure (opex) savings: Less extra head count will need to be added to accommodate the new. Gartner. administration and maintenance (OA&M) and radio planning personnel in place anyway. self-optimization. 2008-2015. | G00214660 Page 49 of 139 . The feature requirements for SONs are expected to be updated by operators. and have it configure itself through negotiating neighboring relations with its peers. SONs should allow self-configuration — the ability to simply add a cell in the network. Huawei. alarms management and maintenance. traffic and backhaul of the base station more easily. Worldwide. compared with traditional OA&M. additional LTE layer. and is a set of rules and algorithms that defines automatic actions to be performed by the system upon given events. Nokia Siemens Networks. SON functionality resides partly in the operations support system (OSS) framework and partly in the radio access network eNodeB. In practice. or at least enable faster and more efficient decision making. capacity.

User Advice: Operators should place requirements on vendors for valued features. It will take time to mature to determine what level of SON is adequate in the first few LTE network releases. While LTE has enjoyed a lot of attention and hype recently. as well as network planning and head count. there will be differences among them. SONs are integral to some advanced RAN architectures. or a hybrid approach). NEC. Ericsson. The first use cases of SON were in early deployments of LTE in 2010. so cost-optimized operations. | G00214660 . The rationale behind the SON functionality is that second-generation (2G). managed and planned. Inc. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Actix. It is possible that femtocells may play a greater role in wider-scale LTE. after backhaul costs and scalability. Since the quality of SON products will vary. extra SON requirements have been defined in The 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) and next-generation mobile networks (NGMN). and although all leading vendors have some ability in this area. what constitutes the key building blocks of early LTE releases is less understood. Nokia Siemens Networks. SONs will become key differentiating features in early LTE releases. SONs are already a key feature of femtocells. Business Impact: SONs can provide a significant saving in operations. Huawei. Interface specifications and use cases for SONs have been defined and are part of 3GPP specification 32. and greatly automate the way future wireless networks are set up. centralized versus distributed SONs. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: SONs are a key issue for many CSPs. Hype Cycle for Wireless Networking Infrastructure" 4G Standard Analysis By: Sylvain Fabre Definition: A fourth-generation (4G) worldwide standard being developed for a next-generation local. such as cloud-based RANs.500 in Release 8. third-generation (3G) and LTE networks will coexist for some time. incidentally. maintenance and planning are needed. and what architectures will be favored (for example. especially in the early stages. ZTE Recommended Reading: "Magic Quadrant for LTE Network Infrastructure" "Emerging Technology Analysis: Self-Organizing Networks. A SON can help achieve stable LTE networks for operators. and evaluate the cost of these features based on estimated savings in operations. Alcatel-Lucent. administration and maintenance.and wide-area cellular platform is expected to enter commercial service between 2012 and Page 50 of 139 Gartner. and have been a key requirement for next-generation mobile networks.SONs require specialized skills. Leading operators have indicated that they value SONs. Over the past two years.

Then there is the problem of how to provide adequate backhaul capacity cost-effectively. Deployments of High-Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA). in the U. Agreement on the initial specification has yet to be reached. But these are not the only reasons why its introduction is some way off. and it will become harder with LTE and then 4G. is not being assessed for 4G — had been under consideration as a next-generation mobile standard in the U. | G00214660 Page 51 of 139 . the Wireless World Initiative New Radio (WINNER) project. this is already difficult with the higher data rates supported by High-Speed Packet Access (HSPA). Many technologies have competed for inclusion in the 4G standard. HSUPA.S. low latency. Also. 4G technology will be all-IP and packet-switched..2015. with 802.16m a possible distant contender. software-defined radio (SDR) and multiple input/multiple output (MIMO). but discussions point to some key characteristics. we believe that the network architecture will be radically different from today's networks. for data. unlike wideband code division multiple access (WCDMA) and HSPA. The development effort involves many organizations: the International Telecommunication Union Radiocommunication Sector (ITU-R). network operators will want to receive a worthwhile return on 3G investments before moving to 4G. but has since changed its future plan to LTE. to some extent. Inc. as these need to provide a worthwhile return on investment before network operators will commit themselves to a new generation of technology. as backward-compatibility might otherwise be an issue (as interworking between WCDMA and LTE networks is proving). High-Speed Uplink Packet Access (HSUPA) and Long Term Evolution (LTE) technology will extend the life of third-generation (3G) infrastructures for voice and. Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB) — which. and support for call control and signaling. WiMAX worldwide is losing momentum to time division LTE (TD-LTE). such as orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM). Carriers will also need to ensure interoperability with today's networks. a European Union research program. The radio access will be made up of more cells with increasingly smaller sizes to enable increased frequency reuse for maximum performance. In particular. Gartner. It appears likely at this point that LTE-Advanced (LTE-A) is a clear leader for 4G. purely Internet Protocol (IP) core and radio transport networks for voice. but it failed to gain a foothold and will not be widely adopted. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The 4G standard is still in the early stages of development and has to incorporate a wide range of technologies. Sprint had been advertising WiMAX as 4G. the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF). but they share common features. video and data services. These include support for peak data transmission rates of 100 Mbps in WANs and 1 Gbps in fixed or low-mobility situations (field experiments have achieved over 2. International Mobile Telecommunications-Advanced (IMT-A) is now called 4G. In addition.5 Gbps). but is not in the race anymore. Instead. and parts of Asia and Latin America. handover between wireless bearer technologies such as code division multiple access (CDMA) and Wi-Fi. monitor the deployment and success of 3G enhancements such as HSDPA. flat architecture and integration of femtocells and picocells (as the "small cell" layer) within the macrolayer. it will include all-IP. and network operators. the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) and 3GPP2. User Advice: It is too soon to plan for 4G. High-Speed Packet Access Evolution (HSPA+) and LTE.S. telecom equipment vendors. WiMAX had been considered.

to provide bandwidth optimization for an enhanced user experience. Inc.Business Impact: The business impact areas for 4G are high-speed. ZTE Recommended Reading: "Magic Quadrant for LTE Network Infrastructure" "Emerging Technology Analysis: Self-Organizing Networks. multiple "pervasive" networks and interoperable systems. A fixed-CSP CDN can be used to distribute rich media — such as audio and video — as downloads or streams. where content offload is the most frequently used service. but which are used to deliver network services from fixed carriers. In the media sector. a fixed-CSP CDN may also provide services such as global load balancing. While common in the cloud within media networks. as part of an electronic software delivery solution. A CDN for fixed communications service providers (CSPs) offloads origin servers via edge caching and offers improved latency via closer proximity to the user. for example. Ericsson. Page 52 of 139 Gartner. and rich-media delivery via progressive downloading is the most frequently used service. Nokia Siemens Networks. Peter Kjeldsen Definition: Fixed carrier content delivery networks (CDNs) are a type of distributed computing infrastructure. increased use of network sharing and "small cells. Additionally. It can also be used to deliver software packages and updates. Use of all of these services is also common within the e-commerce industry. the fixed-CSP CDN is emerging as a new technique in CSPs' core networks. Hype Cycle for Wireless Networking Infrastructure" "Dataquest Insight: IPR Issues Could Delay Growth in the Long Term Evolution Market" CDN for Fixed CSPs Analysis By: Akshay K. unless a different network business model is found. NEC. carriers should recognize that the cost of deploying and operating an entirely new 4G network might be too high to justify. including live streams. Fujitsu. as well as intelligent optimization techniques." Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Embryonic Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. Secure Sockets Layer acceleration and dynamic application acceleration via optimization techniques. | G00214660 . Sharma. Finally. Huawei. low-latency communications. Samsung Electronics. including. where devices (servers or appliances) reside in multiple points of presence on multihop packet-routing networks (such as the Internet) or on private WANs. all these uses are common.

The traditional flat-rate or static pricing model. traffic priority and so on. As more consumers look to online service options for searching and acquiring content. 8. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: 5% to 20% of target audience Maturity: Early mainstream Sample Vendors: Akamai. such as the streaming of cached assets.Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Using a fixed-CSP CDN is less expensive than buying servers and bandwidth. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The demand for bandwidth continues to grow as subscribers increasingly consume Internet Protocol content and bandwidth-intensive applications on multiple devices. Gartner. Inc. As a result. including advertisers. Business Impact: We believe that fixed-CSP CDNs will continue to increase the breadth and scope of these additional services. | G00214660 Page 53 of 139 . has been unable to compensate for growing capital and operational expenses despite increasing revenue. expanding the range of application-fluent network services and facilitating relationships between e-commerce partners. The design of these solutions is intended to allow CSPs to centralize policy and charging functions in a multi-service. and help to reduce bandwidth costs for high-volume and content-heavy sites. especially for data access. This has led to a situation where CSPs. especially mobile CSPs are often faced with clogged networks and users see sub-optimal service performance. Verizon Integrated Policy and Charging Control Solutions Analysis By: Kamlesh Bhatia Definition: Integrated policy and charging control solutions are part of the communications service provider's (CSP's) operational functions that allow dynamic and real time control of subscriber entitlements to network resources like bandwidth. Newer optimization techniques (including video caching. User Advice: CSPs should carefully assess the opportunities for partnering with cloud-hosted CDNs. multi-network environment and have access to integrated subscriber information. AT&T. The solutions allow CSPs to monetize value delivered to subscribers through personalized and targeted pricing offers based on usage and contextual information. Industry standards bodies like 3GPP (in release 7. 9) have laid down detailed guidelines around the design and use of Policy and Charging Rules Function (PCRF) within the same environment. an efficient and seamless experience will mean the difference between success and failure. CDNs can assist in improving end-user performance. volume utilization. which is critical for fixed CSPs. CSPs are looking at solutions to help them overcome this challenge while maintaining their position as a trusted provider in a highly competitive market environment. transcoding and multicasting) are occurring in the core.

As CSPs move into new business models that hinge on applications. converged services and smart devices. User Advice: CSPs should consider integrated policy and charging management solutions as an extension to their investment in subscriber data management offerings. the European Union). Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Adolescent Sample Vendors: Bridgewater Systems. integration with operating components and real-time performance. policy and charging have been moving closer together.. Tekelec. HP. Orga Systems. The range of these solutions should transcend beyond the network into the IT layer allowing CSPs to create dynamic personalized offerings (such as integrating with customer or self-care capabilities). Local regulations around the use of policy decisions should be kept in mind. Since last year. Given the market hype around these solutions. In some cases local regulatory bodies have mandated use of policy decisions to address concerns around bill-shock (e. Vendors of these solutions are working to alleviate challenges around configurability.g. Adherence to industry standards (like 3GPP) is a must. Openet. realize higher margins (through differential pricing of applications/services) and to manage customer experience. Huawei. | G00214660 . use of integrated policy and charging solutions can enhance subscriber loyalty through personalization and create new opportunities to monetize resource consumption. CSPs should look beyond plain technology platforms and focus on their ability to create new policy and charging scenarios using these solutions.The use of integrated policy and charging control solutions allows CSPs to employ a more granular policy mechanism at the application. Telcordia. the focus on integrated policy and charging control solutions is expected to grow. Comptel. Volubill Page 54 of 139 Gartner. This is largely a result of growing concern in the industry around changing consumption patterns for data services and the need to move beyond traditional pricing models. The inclusion of policy management solutions is now a common feature in proposals for real-time charging systems hence justifying the hype around these solutions. CSPs that have already invested in solutions for online charging and subscriber data management (SDM) are expected to take an evolutionary approach to integrating these with policy solutions that offer real-time policy control. service and network level to control entitlements. Business Impact: Integrated policy and charging control solutions are key to enforce a fair-usage policy among CSPs' subscriber base (where few users account for large bandwidth consumption). It also allows the subscriber greater leverage over their spending and consumption patterns through dynamic changes in their subscription plans. We expect this to continue and gather momentum resulting in high adoption of integrated solutions for policy and charging control. As CSPs engage in new business models (two-sided). It also has the ability to enhance the quality of experience for end-users by dynamically altering network resource allocation based on subscriber preference. Inc. The solution should also enable a convergent approach across services and lines of business and allow easy configuration of individualized policy and charging rules. Elitecore Technologies.

Suggestion — Indicating real-world objects of interest. accelerometers. so. Nintendo 3DS also uses AR as a differentiator to enrich gaming experiences on its 3D display. providing consumers with information and education. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The maturity of a number of mobile technologies — such as GPS. as many vendors exploited this technology to differentiate their products — both services and hardware. The combination of these features and technologies also allows AR to be used in a number of different applications. the increasing popularity of application stores (increasing awareness and availability of applications). As all these technologies converge in maturity. For example. It is this "real world" element that differentiates AR from virtual reality. We also believe that AR will play a role in mobile contextual interactions. In 2010. AR browser vendor Layar boasts more than 700. including enhancing user interfaces (UIs). for example. by pointing a camera at a traffic sign. The term has existed since the early 1990s. offering potential for marketing and advertising. Direction — Indicating where a user should go. digital compasses. AR has also benefited from a growing number of open OSs (promoting native development). a number of factors will slow adoption of AR: ■ Device requirements for AR in mobile devices are rigorous. and augmenting games and entertainment applications. audio and other virtual enhancements on a live view of the real world. Gartner. Tuong Huy Nguyen Definition: Augmented reality (AR) is a technology that superimposes graphics. and will be particularly powerful for: ■ ■ ■ Exploration — Finding things in the vicinity. it will be restricted to higher-end devices. Inc. Panasonic provides the Viera AR Setup Simulator (as a promotional tool) to help the consumer feel how their TV will fit into a room. online maps and Wikipedia.Recommended Reading: "Emerging Technology Analysis: How CSPs can Cut Costs and Charm Customers with Integrated Policy and Charging Control" Augmented Reality Analysis By: CK Lu. and the rising availability of overlay data such as databases. Despite the hype and potential. we observed that the hype surrounding AR has slowed down. AR aims to enhance users' interaction with the environment. broadband. This year.000 active users. | G00214660 Page 55 of 139 . rather than separating them from it. AR had reached the peak of its hype. when it originated in aerospace manufacturing. Mobile devices have smaller screens than other consumer electronics devices such as laptops and even handheld gaming consoles. although mobile services provide a great use case for this technology. image processing and face/object recognition software — has made AR a viable technology on mobile devices. World Lens developed an AR translation application allowing users to translate one language to another. digital cameras. Nevertheless. its uses are still being explored. The vendor is working with LG (to preload its application on new Android devices) and Samsung (to be supported on bada). restricting the information that can be conveyed to the end user.

to provide an uninterrupted user experience. gyroscopes or magnetometers. healthcare institutions and real-estate agencies. Inc. Build up alliances with AR database owners and game developers to provide exclusive AR applications and services for your devices. there are also issues with compatibility: competing AR browsers are using proprietary APIs and data structure. Extend your AR application as a platform that individual users and third-party providers can use to create their own content. but can be enhanced by hardware such as accelerometers. Mobile device manufacturers: Recognize that AR provides an innovative interface for your mobile devices. Open discussions with developers about the possibility of preinstalling application clients on your devices. AR developers: Take a close look at whether your business model is sustainable. maintenance. Provide end-to-end professional services for specific vertical markets. ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Page 56 of 139 Gartner. Mapping vendors: Add AR to your 3D map visualizations. queue-busting or medical staff). to improve the user experience — with the aim of predicting what information users need in different contexts. AR is a natural way to display search results in many contexts. Educate consumers about the impact of AR on their bandwidth.The interface (a small handheld device that needs to be held in front of you) limits usage to bursts. A controlled hardware and software stack from database to device will ensure a quality user experience for these groups. privacy is a potential concern and a hindrance to adoption. in which AR could offer significant value. Integrate AR with existing tools. Explore how to apply AR. For workers who are mobile (including factory. perhaps by offering white-label versions of your products. ■ User Advice: ■ Communications service providers (CSPs): Examine whether AR would enhance the user experience of your existing services. and consider working with CSPs or device manufacturers to expand your user base. As a newer solution. through different applications and services. Secure preloading agreements and examine how you could integrate AR into your UIs or OSs. emergency response. rather than building your own AR from the ground up. | G00214660 . making the AR information from one vendor's browser incompatible with that from other browsers. rather than continued interaction with the real world. GPS technology also lacks the precision to provide perfect location data. warehousing. to avoid being blamed for users going over their data allowance. identify how AR could deliver context-specific information at the point of need or decision. Early adopters: Examine how AR can bring value to your organization and your customers by offering branded information overlays. such as browsers or maps. Build up your own databases to provide exclusive services through AR applications. Providers of search engines and other Web services: Get into AR as an extension of your search business. Compile a list of AR developers with which you could partner. ■ As with other location-based services (LBSs). including schools. and document how developers can access device features.

Companies such as Mobilizy are offering white-label solutions that allow core Wikitude functionality to be customized. | G00214660 Page 57 of 139 .Business Impact: AR browsers and applications will be the focus of innovation and differentiation for players in the mobile device market in 2011. Enterprises want the value delivered through cloud computing services. trust. data management. There are interesting branding opportunities for companies and businesses. Through public consumption of cloud services. economies of scale and sharing of resources will be generated to reduce costs and to increase the choices available to consumers. as well as countless business sites delivering services from entertainment to healthcare records. Layar. Tonchidot Recommended Reading: "Emerging Technology Analysis: Augmented Reality Shows What Mobile Devices Can Do" "Contextual Smartphone Applications Will Exploit Augmented Reality" Public Cloud Computing/the Cloud Analysis By: Daryl C. control and guarantees of appropriate performance will not be sufficient to support enterprise needs. brands and advertisers. but also need to ensure that the concept is ready for delivering services that a company can rely on. handset vendors." Sites such as Flickr and Facebook. public cloud computing has proved itself time and again. Inc. in the context of the Internet and the Web. This can provide revenue via set charges. and use it as a competitive differentiator in their device portfolio. Points of interest can be branded with a "favicon" (that is. However. Therefore. as well as an opportunity for CSPs. Web service providers and mapping vendors to provide value and content to partners in the value chain. have been in use for some time in the public context. Public cloud computing carries with it the concerns that security. Mobilizy. CSPs and their brand partners can leverage AR's ability to enhance the user experience within their LBS offerings. a favorites or website icon) that appears when the point of interest is selected. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Adolescent Sample Vendors: GeoVector. recurring subscription fees or advertising. Google. The growing popularity of AR opens up a market opportunity for application developers. Plummer Definition: Gartner defines public cloud computing as a style in which scalable and elastic ITenabled capabilities are provided as services to external customers using Internet technologies. from what is commonly referred to as the "consumer perspective. Handset vendors can incorporate AR to enhance UIs. AR products such as Wikitude can lead to numerous LBS advertising opportunities. Gartner. public cloud computing involves the use of cloud computing technologies to support customers that are external to the provider's organization.

Customers should still be cautious about the claims of most providers. with rapid growth in cloud computing through 2012. Amazon or Workday) delivers cloud services that provide value to their consumers. cloud services and cloud computing. salesforce. As enterprises heavily experiment with the concept. Rackspace. The evaluation of peer projects that solve actual problems are under way. In addition. Inc. but the basic opportunity is for businesses to consume services from other companies that free them from the need to provide those services themselves. with little regard for where or how. the idea of cloud services is more tangible. Many providers are unprepared to deliver these advantages to the enterprise. There will continued investment in 2011. Google. they begin serious budgeting efforts for real projects. In the end. because their models are still unproved for enterprise use. The cloud is used euphemistically to indicate that work is being performed somewhere else. cloud computing is a style of computing. This can enable to companies to eliminate work that previously might have been done in-house. Beyond this. are worth investigating for cloud computing adoption.com 100 Gbps Transport Analysis By: Peter Kjeldsen Definition: Updates to optical transport systems enabling the delivery of 100 gigabits per second (Gbps) data rates per wavelength represent a tenfold increase over the commonly deployed 10 Gbps per channel systems in communications service provider (CSP) networks. User Advice: User companies should be moving experimental projects to feasibility discussions for serious implementation in 2010. Benefit Rating: Transformational Market Penetration: More than 50% of target audience Maturity: Early mainstream Sample Vendors: Amazon. or set up new users in an existing environment. It can also lead to massive changes in the way money is spent — for example. The cloud is an abstract concept that refers to a collection of one or more cloud services.g. Some of the same developments utilized for achieving 40 Gbps throughput are being used in 100 Gbps as well. | G00214660 . using operating expenses to fund external services. Business Impact: The business impact of cloud computing in the public sense can be varied. but besides reducing the initial investment in assets. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The public cloud is at (and a little past) the Peak of Inflated Expectations. agility is certainly something that clients will want to look at closely. more advanced modulation schemes are being considered for 100 Gbps. The potential advantages in terms of agility. in that each cloud provider (e. but to maintain transmission distances. cloud providers are advertising their ability to deliver enterprise services and reduce cost. rather than using capital expenses to fund IT projects. whereas cloud services are used to deliver value through this abstract thing that we call the cloud.It's important to distinguish among the cloud.. as well as in time to market to stand up new applications. with coherent dual polarization quadrature phase shift keying (DP-QPSK) modulation being Page 58 of 139 Gartner.

This allows CSPs to consider the move to higher line rate systems in the wider context of what their future optical transport architecture should look like. Inc. NEC.org/announcements/ 2010/ratification8023ba. With further advances in transceiver technologies and the push for even higher per-channel line rates in dense wavelength-division multiplexing (DWDM) systems. Huawei. Business Impact: This technology will eventually offer cost-effective addressing of traffic growth issues. Ciena. | G00214660 Page 59 of 139 . The 100 Gbps technology is clearly leveraging advances related to the realization of 40 Gbps commercial solutions. However.oiforum.3ba standard in June 2010 (see http://standards. Cisco. acting as an enabling technology for the expansion of network capacity. 40 Gbps technology when addressing traffic growth challenges.com/public/documents/ OIF-FD-100G-DWDM-01.emphasized by the Optical Internetworking Forum (see http://www.ieee.html). We expect that 100 Gbps will reach the Plateau of Productivity within the next three to four years. CSPs should look at 100 Gbps wavelengths as part of architecture evolution rather than a simple capacity upgrade. paced by continued growth in mobile data and video traffic and the associated core router User Advice: Evaluate the cost-effectiveness and maturity of the 100 Gbps technology vs. Nokia Siemens Networks Sliding Into the Trough Mobile Subscriber Data Management Analysis By: Kamlesh Bhatia Gartner. and cost-effectiveness (cost per bit) of 100 Gbps solutions compared to 40 Gbps is likely still a couple of years away.0. to realize 100 Gbps solutions raises the bar in terms of more advanced transceiver designs. to cost-effectively support mobile data and video services. it is possible that other advanced modulation schemes can play a role in +100 Gbps transport. which will allow CSPs to carry 40 Gbps and 100 Gbps Ethernet directly over transport networks supporting these line rates. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: 100 Gbps commercial trials and early deployments are ongoing in the transport networks of large CSPs such as Verizon. AT&T and Comcast. 100 Gbps (as well as 40 Gbps) line rates are already standardized for Synchronous Digital Hierarchy/Synchronous Optical Network (SDH/SONET) and optical transport network (OTN) by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU).pdf). Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) ratified the 802.

CSPs need to think beyond this. for example. those used in operations support systems or business support systems. While HLR and even HSS are no longer new network elements. Having said that. or virtually into a consolidated view — and then leveraged for insights. be centralized in main data centers include: ■ ■ ■ ■ Presence servers.Definition: Mobile subscriber data management (SDM) is the activity whereby parts of datasets related to the same subscriber. and low latency is extremely important — whereas IT systems are not. Other subscriber databases which may. or may not. in the past few years. with CRM and combined with Web analytics. limited-capacity. Other repositories for subscriber-related data that reside within the CSP's network. SDM is now being closely aligned with other control plane elements like Policy and Charging Rules Function (PCRF) to bring out more subscriber and context-aware capabilities that CSPs can leverage to generate new revenue or improve the customer experience. rollouts have begun. close to switching and routing — they contribute to real-time call flow and service delivery. Inc. can leverage a whole new Page 60 of 139 Gartner. Mobile subscriber databases also exclude databases that reside in the Internet Protocol cloud. Device preferences. authorization and accounting (AAA). that hold subscriber data within the wireless communications service provider's (CSP's) infrastructure. | G00214660 . "Buddy lists. and are used by over-the-top providers like Skype and Google. User Advice: While the initial driver to move to mobile SDM may sometimes be the need to upgrade legacy switches. and subscriber network databases. onto a consolidated database. switch-based platforms to commercial platforms — massively scalable distributed systems with increased geographical redundancy. Location servers. The CSP community has to actively pursue financial opportunities from its subscriber data (beyond simply upgrading platforms for network databases) — as CSPs become more skilled over time at exploiting the customer data insights for real-time marketing. the past decade has seen these concepts modified from proprietary. are pulled together — either physically." These databases are fundamentally different from other IT-based systems. Home subscriber server (HSS). Authentication. SDM. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The concept of mobile SDM has been spreading throughout the vendor community during the last decade and. but are not distributed in the CSP network. policy management and deep packet inspection capabilities. and the ability to deliver innovative services in addition to just voice and data. But CSPs and vendors alike are struggling to find services and revenue that could be directly linked to mobile SDM. There are several existing data repositories. but physically located on different repositories. Subscriber network databases are distributed in the network. including: ■ ■ ■ ■ Home location register (HLR).

Rather than just sitting on their subscriber data. A unified view of subscribers across networks can also help to resolve problems with dirty or duplicate data. Worldwide" "Emerging Technology Analysis: How CSPs can Cut Costs and Charm Customers with Integrated Policy and Charging Control" Energy Management Gateways Analysis By: Ian Keene. This might enhance CSPs' ability to proactively offer more tailored products and services to certain customer groups. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Adolescent Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. Tekelec. or. retaining new revenue opportunities and. However. Bridgewater Systems. Inc. CSPs securely exposing and utilizing subscriber data from the network. linking and integrating consumer energy management. along with an Gartner. | G00214660 Page 61 of 139 . this may also trigger a much deeper integration of networking and IT technologies — vendors and CSPs should actively plan for such integration over time. Nokia Siemens Networks. It is the interactive energy gateway to the customer's home or for energy management in buildings. to profile customers for business purposes. CSPs have to actively develop new service and revenue opportunities. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: High and volatile energy prices. This could mean hardware and software platform upgrades (which take time and investment). HP. Huawei. improving the customer experience. cutting down revenue leakage. most importantly. especially in conjunction with next-generation service delivery platforms. Customer gateways. ZTE Recommended Reading: "Competitive Landscape: Subscriber Data Management Solutions. is leading to a resurgence in gateway deployments. Some vendors have now started to embrace this coherent network and IT concept in their latest subscriber data management offerings.set of revenue by using real-time marketing insights about subscribers — to improve customer experience and proactively offer more tailored products and services to certain customer groups. and having smart appliances increase energy efficiency and enhance the consumer's quality of life. Ericsson. Zarko Sumic Definition: Customer energy management gateways allow consumers to become part of the smart grid by enabling self-service energy provisioning on-premises. Business Impact: The ability to capture and leverage mobile subscriber data offers the potential to fundamentally change the role of the mobile CSP. for example. Opportunities for CSPs are emerging for providing the telecommunication services needed to connect devices and homes to the utility's smart-grid infrastructure and services. coupled with emerging consumer willingness and desire to take control of previously inaccessible consumer decisions. Openet.

Tendril Recommended Reading: "Management Update: Top 10 Business Trends Impacting the Utility Industry in 2011" "The Utility of the Future: The Information Utility" "Energy Technology Consumerization: The Quest for Lean and Green" Page 62 of 139 Gartner. as envisioned by the U. at least partially.S. Often.advanced metering infrastructure — particularly for the mass market. primarily in the face of price signals through programs such as economic demand response.. Business Impact: Customer gateways will affect energy retail. and numerous initiatives in other countries globally — enable the consumer to effectively make choices about energy consumption. In addition to becoming a stand-alone device. and will be key enablers of energy technology consumerization by acting as portals between utility and consumer energy technology. opportunities are now global. Customer gateways are an enabling technology for energy technology consumerization and an interface between utility and home energy management (HEM) and a home-area network (HAN) system. | G00214660 . such as on-site generation and storage. all of this is done through systems that are programmable by the consumer to alleviate the impact of high prices by reducing consumption or shifting consumption to lower-priced hours. Echelon. Inc. Costs will be offset. and smart appliances supporting consumer home energy management and enabling energy provisioning transformation. focus. User Advice: Energy IT organizations should prepare for the impact of IT and energy technology consumerization by providing communication links and control schemas to incorporate customerinstalled gateways. as well as energy-efficiency programs. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Comverge. Energy Policy Act (EPAct) of 2005. Gateways are also a point of handshake between utility deployed smart-grid IT and operational technology (OT) and home energy management solutions provided by consumer technology vendors. the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 in the U.S. While this technology initially had a U.S. CSPs should work with utilities and should look for new service revenue opportunities from the supply of the communications infrastructure needed. a consumer gateway can be provided by utilities and integrated in AMI (smartmetering solution) or can be an integral part of a home energy management/consumer energy management solution. These gateways are critical components for customer inclusion in energy markets through on-site renewable generation and storage. by energy savings. home energy management systems and smart devices. the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.

4 and 5 GHz bands. Samsung Recommended Reading: "Emerging Technology Analysis: Potential of TV White-Space Spectrum for Enterprise/Business Use" Addressable TV Advertising Analysis By: Andrew Frank Gartner. This spectrum can also be used in rural areas for broadband services. Manufacturers and users of semiconductors. Inc. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Initial drafts of the 802.22 is a standard for wireless regional area networks that uses white space (the unused guard bands in the TV frequency spectrum). This standard could lead to devices that enable broadband access via white space spectrum. | G00214660 Page 63 of 139 . which implement the IEEE 802. home networking equipment and mobile devices should follow the progress of this standard. Google." are appearing. enterprise networking devices. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Dell.22 devices.11 specification. whereby the system has a similar topology to a base station and customer premises equipment (CPE) — much like a cellular network. consumer electronic devices. Microsoft. User Advice: It is too early to plan for 802. and to newer communications service providers (for example. PCs. HP. dynamically selecting channels to avoid interference. termed "Super Wi-Fi. One key feature of the wireless regional area network is that the CPE will be sensing the spectrum to determine if newer channels should be used.22 Analysis By: Akshay K. Business Impact: The main aim of utilizing white space is to provide access to high-speed wireless data for low-mobility users. in which lower frequencies can reach further and penetrate buildings more easily than standard Wi-Fi radios.802. It leverages newer cognitive radio techniques to reuse unused spectrum for wireless broadband access. over-the-top providers such as Microsoft and Google) entering this area. This technology provides Wi-Fi over the TV "white space" spectrum.22 standard specify that the network should operate on a point-to-multipoint basis. Wi-Fi runs in the unlicensed 2. and operates in the very high frequency/ultrahigh frequency TV broadcast bands between 54 MHz and 862 MHz. Newer prototypes. Sharma. Peter Kjeldsen. Sylvain Fabre Definition: The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 802.

although still lags behind national TV audiences in most regions. scale is essential. satellite providers. the competitive threat from online video has led TV service providers to accelerate efforts to provide addressable targeting solutions at scale. through cable. cable serves about 60% of the 115 million television households. | G00214660 . the underlying audience that can be addressed by a given solution must be large enough to produce segments large enough to be of interest to advertisers. first on cable and satellite TV and then on IPTV and the Internet. but technical issues of legacy set-top boxes and headend systems continue to impede the industry-backed efforts of companies such as Canoe Ventures. A few cable operators have achieved regional addressability (such as Cablevision. and the U.K. media tablets.. whose share of consumer time is growing.) The scale factor has narrowed the focus on addressability to cable and satellite providers. A major factor in TV service providers' efforts to provide addressability is the potential scale of their deployments. The proliferation of video content options.S.Definition: Addressable TV advertising technologies enable advertisers to selectively segment TV audiences and serve different ads within a common program or navigation screen. whose main objective is to engage a more-limited target segment that is likely to respond to a specific call to action.S. advertiser goals for addressability can be divided into "reach" strategy. These efforts are closely tied to service providers' underlying technology infrastructure. Digital broadcast satellite (DBS) providers are further along. to offer nationwide multisystem addressability solutions. behavioral and (in some cases) self-selected individual household levels. this technology does not apply to broadband-delivered video programming services. whose main objective is to cover a broad target segment with a message to generate brand awareness. giving it ample scale. although effectiveness places greater emphasis on the depth and quality of the targeting data. using Visible World's Connect product to deliver addressable ads to about 3 million households in mid-Atlantic states). Because broadband-delivered advertising is inherently addressable by nature. demographic. has fragmented television audiences and raised advertisers' expectations to be able to apply targeting capabilities developed on the Internet across all media. and hybrid approaches combining over-the-air (OTA) broadcast and Internet are progressing at varying rates in different regions. Because addressability is for segmenting audiences. so that the efforts of cable companies. Segmentation can occur at geographic. and smartphones. (As Nielsen Research has noted. satellite and Internet Protocol television (IPTV) delivery systems and set-top boxes (STBs). In either case. a joint venture of the cable industry's largest operators. and "effectiveness" strategy. In the U. such as Verizon FiOS. although a few telco IPTV providers are offering zone-based addressability. DirecTV plans to Page 64 of 139 Gartner. Although addressable TV advertising was long envisioned as part of television's evolutionary road map. This factor has limited interest in the technology outside of the largest broadcasting markets such as the U. however cable-based addressability on a national scale has proven elusive. Inc. and are in the process of rolling out addressability solutions based on DVR-based local storage of addressable ads. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The value proposition of TV broadcasting for advertisers was once based on the unique opportunity the medium gave advertisers to reach a nationwide mass audience with relative ease. telco IPTV providers. Internet TV providers and video ad networks have little difficulty providing such capabilities to connected TVs as well as TV programming viewed on PCs.

Internet-based challengers or broadcasters and programmers will control the most lucrative part of the value chain. | G00214660 Page 65 of 139 . and whether this additional value will be sufficient to offset costs." which in their case. In any case. for which addressability represents a disruption to entrenched business practices. refers to this capacity as "Adtag. At least as significant as the technology and audience size issues are business issues affecting the adoption of addressable TV advertising. Its provider. it remains to be seen whether incumbent TV distributors. distributors and third parties. Uncertainty as to how much additional value advertisers will assign to targeting (especially in high-spending. User Advice: Gartner. but the overall process of change represented by addressable TV ads appears slower than expected. at least within certain marketing sectors. notably Sky's AdSmart project in the U. which represents a large jump in the complexity of media packaging and sales processes. Significant privacy concerns associated with household segmentation. The cable industry's legacy infrastructure barriers have led to estimates of six years or more to provide nationwide addressability in the U. the cable operator's advertising arm.reach 10 million subscribers when it rolls out in the second half of 2011. Finally. Communications service providers (CSPs) have found the technique to be effective in marketing new capabilities to customers on their networks based on the knowledge of what they already have. There are several to consider: ■ General inertia and recalcitrance of the TV advertising market. phone number and Web link of a consumer's nearest dealer. leading us to extend its time to maturity to five-to-10 years from a more-optimistic assessment in the previous year.S. NDS. Inc. A popular belief is that more-advanced providers will break ranks and deliver the capability before then. Automotive manufacturers have found value in the ability to switch the final image of an ad — referred to as an "art card" — to a screen that contains the address. Some regions will certainly outpace others. ■ ■ ■ ■ It has become clear in the past year or so of trials that the measurable value of addressability varies considerably among marketing sectors and objectives. and the practice will become widespread. possibly by employing over-the-top (OTT) technologies that make use of broadband rather than broadcast-based solutions. it's likely that the efficiencies derived from audience segmentation will eventually prevail. Fragmentation of audiences. (Comcast Spotlight. low-consideration sectors. such as consumer packaged goods).") Automotive advertisers are also among the most willing sectors to pay a premium to reach consumers who are "in-market. is also deploying this technology (called NDS Dynamic) in other regions.K. Issues regarding the allocation of revenue and control over addressable ads among broadcasters. is shopping for a car.

Black Arrow. turning a big problem into a benefit. Canoe Ventures. MVPDs. Inc. We have reduced the benefit rating from "High" to "Moderate" based on the observation that broadband technologies. and challenge proprietary service provider data. Packet Vision. television regulators and privacy advocates. These technologies also affect marketing technologists considering the CRM implications of new targeting capabilities. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Adolescent Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. Internet portals. Microsoft. such as customer addresses. OTT services and ad networks can continue to exploit delays in TV addressability by engaging more with traditional video-oriented advertising agencies and advertisers to develop online targeting and segmentation strategies and capabilities. SeaChange International. Broadcasters must ensure that they preserve their direct relationships with advertisers and don't get intermediated by platforms over which they have little control. Addressable TV advertising represents an opportunity for mainstream advertisers and broadcasters to benefit from the scourge of audience fragmentation — thus. TV networks. Agencies and advertisers should work with platform developers and metric providers to define standard metrics that will enable transparency and optimization in the complexity that will result from addressable capabilities. are increasingly likely to dilute any impact MVPD in-band solutions might have on the marketplace. | G00214660 . ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Business Impact: Addressable TV advertising technologies affect advertisers. NDS. OpenTV. Multichannel video programming distributors (MVPDs) must re-evaluate how various Internet advertising technologies might present opportunities to offer advanced advertising capabilities alongside in-band approaches and be wary of platform-specific solutions that require extensive alignment among fragmented operators. Invidi. They must also invest in data analytics to gain the ability to use emerging targeting techniques effectively. being used for adtargeting purposes without explicit advance informed consent. which are not included here.■ Advertisers must consider how to position their media and sales strategies and privacy policies against emerging TV-ad-targeting technologies. They should also press for interoperability of TV standards with Internet and mobile channels. Agencies must offer multichannel campaign management services that include support for various emerging segmentation and targeting capabilities in media. marketing data providers. They must bargain aggressively to minimize intermediary revenue splits and may play competitive factions against one another to prevent lock-in to any single-provider solution. CE manufacturers. BigBand Networks. advertising agencies. Visible World Recommended Reading: "New Television Meets Context-Aware Computing" Page 66 of 139 Gartner.

"A Scenario for the Future of Television in the Cloud" "Two Roads to TV 2. Reduced operating expenditure (opex) is also a key aspect of the technology. This RFoG standard defines interoperability with existing headend equipment. enhancements to this standard continue to be discussed in committee. Note that the term "RFoG" is often used to describe prestandard and proprietary technologies. as well as other bandwidth-laden applications and services. are expected to become the norm. but in addition many will offer proprietary enhancements on top of the standards-based functionality. international standardization of the SCTE proposal is under way. Proprietary RFoG solutions have been on the market since 2006." The SCTE Engineering Committee completed the first RFoG standard (SCTE 174 2010) in December 2010. while also supporting the coexistence of current legacy technologies over cable's hybrid fiber-coaxial (HFC) system architecture — in which voice. Inc. and this was adopted by the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) as a standard in May 2011. back-office systems. RFoG is also compatible with standard PON networks such as gigabit PON (GPON) and Ethernet PON (EPON). digital set-top boxes and Data-Over-Cable Service Interface Specification (DOCSIS) modems. over-the-top and peer-to-peer video. As with many telecom standards. | G00214660 Page 67 of 139 . allowing the gradual replacement of coaxial cable with fiber within the delivery network. Most of these vendor solutions are expected to adopt the SCTE standard. This move comes at a time when cable operators are under pressure to increase the capacity in their networks to support not only ultra-high-speed broadband — to compete with FTTH services being deployed by wireline communications service provider competitors — but also a future where large amounts of on-demand and high-definition programming. RFoG and HFC can operate out of the same hub. but these deployments have mainly been by Gartner. Outside of North America. and in this respect it is not only existing HFC networks that may untilize RFoG technology.0" RF Over Glass Analysis By: Ian Keene Definition: Radio frequency over glass (RFoG) is a standard that was proposed by the main cable standards body — the Society of Cable Telecommunications Engineers (SCTE) — it is effectively the equivalent of fiber to the home (FTTH) for cable networks. SCTE 174 2010 is a suite of technical standards to support wider use of optical fiber in the cable plant. RFoG can be an overlay to a PON network for the delivery of linear broadcast TV. allowing the transition from HFC to RFoG and eventually to PON and an all-Internet Protocol (IP) environment. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: A number of cable operators have deployed RFoG (proprietary implementations at the time of writing. and has been described as "combining the best of RF cable delivery and passive optical network (PON) technologies. video and data share the same spectrum.

Inc. Operators need to examine the benefits of the longevity of fiber. On the other hand. | G00214660 . and strike the right balance for bandwidth expansion and opex savings. ■ While the main disadvantages are: ■ Increased capital expenditure in non-greenfield deployments.0 to be a sufficiently competitive architecture — at least in the medium term — for the bulk of their subscribers. both downstream and upstream. in terms of providing business services to the enterprise and small or midsize business customers. they need to consider what the use of a single network (instead of separate networks) will do to improve their operational success. and they are expected to gradually ramp up over the next five years. relative to HFC. MSOs could move to an all-IP infrastructure at some time in the future. are field trials. many urban and suburban areas will remain HFC (with fiber continuing to get closer to the street corner) for at least the next three years. With the RFoG standard supporting PON. Implementation of this technology will require operators to analyze their network needs and requirements in terms of the density of homes passed versus the distance from central headends/ hubs. Lower opex. ■ Now that the standard has been ratified. particularly the high cost of deploying fiber cable. and could give MSOs a cost-effective way to compete for subsidized rural broadband dollars.small cable operators. in denser urban environments the cost of replacing coaxial cable with fiber is likely to be prohibitive — with the possible exception of multitenant buildings. cable operators will have less risk of vendor lock-in with RFoG deployments. Still limited to DOCSIS 3. less than potential GPON bandwidths. but consider HFC and DOCSIS 3. in a greenfield environment with medium to low urban density are favorable. Also. with lower maintenance of outside plant and reduced power consumption. or are built on new "greenfield" sites). Some broadband expansion initiatives may also help to drive RFoG. The costs of deploying RFoG solutions. where portions of the existing HFC network can be changed to RFoG while protecting the investment in existing headend. However. and the transition path that RFoG can provide toward an all-fiber broadband IP network. RFoG offers a transition strategy. to accommodate more linear broadcast and high-definition TV channels. The technology is well suited to extending cable footprints into surrounding rural areas. as well as what RFoG technologies can mean to that equation. Large multisystem operators (MSOs) are deploying fiber deeper into their networks. Page 68 of 139 Gartner.0 IP bandwidths. The "endgame" for a growing number of MSOs is an all-fiber and an all-IP network. back-office and customer premises equipment. User Advice: Cable HFC network operators need to consider opex factors as part of their competitive advantage. The main advantages of RFoG are: ■ More RF spectrum.

| G00214660 Page 69 of 139 . the first white space trial was launched in Claudville. High-density multidwelling units. Aurora Networks. 2Q11 Update" White Spaces: Unlicensed Spectrum TV Analysis By: Akshay K. 2008-2015. moved to digital TV.Business Impact: Opex savings will deliver the biggest impact. and in replacement networks where existing plant has reached end of life. Worldwide. this means that RFoG could have a significant overall business impact. emergency generators and so on — as well as providing more environmentally "green" solutions for operators. Sharma. Sylvain Fabre Definition: On 12 June 2009. In October 2009. As more MSOs see an all-IP. Cisco. they are compatible with all digital services for voice. RFoG solutions can be overlaid/installed as needed within an existing HFC network. Maintenance costs are also a major factor: customers with all-fiber plant could achieve as little as 20% of the maintenance costs of an HFC or copper plant. Altogether. RFoG is also expected to deliver major improvements in the powering of outside plant — removing all requirements for outside plant power such as backup power. Taken together with its bandwidth expansion properties. 2Q11 Update" "Forecast: Carrier Network Infrastructure. video and data. CommScope. 2008-2015.S. By small cable operators. Motorola Recommended Reading: "Forecast Analysis: Carrier Network Infrastructure. ■ ■ ■ Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 5% to 20% of target audience Maturity: Early mainstream Sample Vendors: Arris. and they preserve existing protocols in both the downstream and upstream paths. Key areas are improved network reliability and uptime. the U. Worldwide. Gartner. Inc. Hitachi. Virginia. vendors of this solution estimate opex savings for their customers of up to 70% in ideal conditions. The "white spaces" in the unused TV frequencies between TV channels can now be used to provide wireless broadband that delivers high-speed Internet access (at 10 Mbps and above) to fixed and low-mobility consumers. all-fiber future. RFoG will be used in a number of scenarios during the next five years: ■ New network build (greenfield sites). In low-density (typically rural) areas where opex savings are maximized and government broadband initiatives might come into play.

the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in the U. Inc. Business Impact: The main aim of white space is to provide high-speed wireless data to lowmobility users.In Cambridge in the U. Google. Microsoft. | G00214660 . Microsoft demonstrated high-definition TV (HDTV) streaming in white spaces.. Philips. The potential exists for further devices from members of the White Space Coalition. and can reach further and penetrate buildings more easily than standard Wi-Fi radios. Wi-Fi runs over white spaces at lower frequencies. which implement the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 802. called "Super Wi-Fi.4 and 5 GHz bands. Google. According to the 3GPP's definition. Newer prototype solutions are emerging. the abandoned television channels are very high frequency (VHF). which includes Microsoft. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: In November 2008. the city of Wilmington in North Carolina (and the surrounding county of New Hanover) partnered with companies TV Band Service and Spectrum Bridge to launch a new experimental network that uses white space spectrum to provide wireless connectivity to surveillance cameras and environmental sensors in a "smart city" deployment. HP. TD-LTE will be the successor to Time Division Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access (TD-SCDMA). is a time-division duplexing (TDD) version of Long Term Evolution (LTE). or LTE TDD as it is called by the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP). Intel. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Dell.K. HP. Page 70 of 139 Gartner." In these.11 specification. These bar interference with TV signals and have the ability to access (via the Internet) a database that confirms which white spaces are available — according to the device's location. Dell. Wi-Fi runs in the unlicensed 2. Samsung Recommended Reading: "Emerging Technology Analysis: Potential of TV White-Space Spectrum for Enterprise/Business Use" TD-LTE Analysis By: Joy Yang Definition: TD-LTE. In February 2010. unanimously granted free. EarthLink and Samsung. User Advice: It is too early to plan for white-space devices. This access is dependent on mobile technology companies incorporating geolocation capabilities into their devices. unlicensed wireless access to chunks of unused airwaves on the broadcast spectrum that had previously been used to buffer TV channels. In the rest of the world.S.

Innofidei and HiSilicon Technologies. including Ericsson. is heavily behind the TD-LTE ecosystem. two commercial launches had been announced: one by Hi3G in Sweden and Denmark. as license fees for FDD spectrum are often more expensive and difficult to obtain. Sequans Communications. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: TDD technology does not require paired spectrum. | G00214660 Page 71 of 139 . However. In 2010. In 2011. TD-LTE has a different frame structure from LTE FDD at the physical layer and requires greater synchronization in the system. Ericsson. Altair Semiconductor. there were 30 TD-LTE trial networks worldwide. There were also some TD-LTE handsets. Alcatel-Lucent and ZTE. TD-LTE is also attracting the interest of WiMAX operators. Huawei. ST-Ericsson. which. WiMAX is another wireless broadband technology based on TDD technology. China Mobile. Also. Qualcomm. Huawei and ZTE cooperated with China Mobile and demonstrated their TD-LTE solutions at Expo 2010 Shanghai China. booklets (mini-notebook PCs) and MiFi routers. Inc. unlike FDD in which transmit and receive signals work in different frequency bands. As of April 2011. India's broadband wireless access license holders are actively testing TD-LTE with vendors. There is no operational difference between LTE TDD and LTE FDD at higher layers or in the system architecture. unlike FDD. not enough effort has been invested in WiMAX's successor technology. WiMAX 802. All the mainstream mobile infrastructure vendors. China Mobile is pushing dual-mode (TDD/FDD) handsets. TDD has the flexibility to allocate channel capacity to the uplink or downlink dynamically. tablets. FiberHome Technologies. uses paired frequency spectrum separated by a guarded band to provide uplink and downlink data communications in dedicated spectrum. Therefore. are contributing to it. TDD does not require a guard band between uplink and downlink. At the end of April 2011. and another by Aero 2 in Poland. The TD-LTE ecosystem is in the process of maturing. TD-LTE is gaining momentum among technology vendors in relation to compliance. User Advice: Operators that lack the opportunity.16m. seven TD-LTE data cards and USB dongles were available from ZTE. TD-LTE can make more efficient use of frequency resources. together with Chinese TD-SCDMA vendors such as Datang. to support TD-LTE in 2014. equipment vendors Motorola. China Mobile is conducting trials in six cities with seven infrastructure vendors. New Postcom and Potevio. By the end of 2010. many WiMAX operators are likely to migrate to TD-LTE as their next-generation technology. With several equipment vendors having announced that their current WiMAX solutions could in future support TD-LTE through software upgrades. Nokia Siemens Networks. or are unwilling. Gartner. according to the demands of the traffic. by contrast.TD-LTE will be solely a physical-layer development from LTE frequency-division duplexing (FDD). Transmit and receive signals use the same frequency band and are separated through time-division duplexing. which owns the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) network with the largest number of mobile subscribers and is the only major TD-SCDMA operator. In 2011. Apple has announced a dual-mode iPhone road map. TDD is also a great alternative where FDD spectrum is too costly or insufficiently available. to pay the high license fees for FDD spectrum should consider TD-LTE as an alternative technology for providing mobile broadband services. Nokia Siemens Networks.

Current WiMAX operators should bear TD-LTE in mind as an alternative for technological evolution. Service business conditions. ZTE Next-Generation Service Delivery Platforms Analysis By: Martina Kurth Definition: A next-generation service delivery platform (NG SDP) is a set of integrated software components that supports the delivery of Internet Protocol (IP) and non-IP carrier services. Service operation subsystems (traditionally the domain of network resources): ■ Databases/registers (centralized or distributed). The aim with NG SDPs is to create the core of a network/resource-neutral service delivery system that can automate service creation and service management. When choosing a WiMAX vendor. Assurance. NG SDPs include many functions. some of which may be considered a business support system or operations support system (OSS) by other vendors. Huawei. Nokia Siemens Networks. Qualcomm. Service composition. Vendors' NG SDP offerings vary according to their key competencies in networks or IT. Inc. with potential reductions in operational costs for operators. Samsung. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. Business Impact: TD-LTE is intended to deliver high-bandwidth. communications service providers should evaluate the likely ability of the solution to migrate to TD-LTE in the future. WiMAX equipment vendors without TD-LTE offerings should consider using their experience in TDD technology and their "footprint" in the WiMAX market to break into the TD-LTE market. These functions may include: Service creation: ■ ■ ■ Service element creation. Service management (traditionally the domain of OSSs): ■ ■ Fulfillment. | G00214660 Page 72 of 139 . Ericsson. facilitates faster service creation and enables the combination of many services and service features. high-quality mobile broadband services to enterprises and residential users. Gartner. It provides more flexibility.

end-user data. A set of APIs to connect services. Increasingly. Inc. it will include functions such as device management. Integration platform and service-oriented architecture (SOA) environment (SOA service orchestration). Web portal technology.■ ■ Application execution. This software and hardware infrastructure will include all service-enabling functions of a future communications service provider (CSP). A set of APIs to connect to carriers' existing applications. content management. Identity management (and profile management). such as billing. ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Enablers and application programming interfaces (APIs): ■ ■ A set of APIs to interact with and virtualize the carrier's network elements. data or mobile). Content management subsystems. Session Initiation Protocol services or Internet services. are integrated and can work together through the use of common capabilities. user device clients. The concept of an end-to-end integrated service infrastructure or service network is emerging. Call-processing subsystems. parts of the control layer (IP Multimedia Subsystem or Internet protocols) and even end-user applications. Gartner. NG SDPs have an architecture that aims to simplify the complex service delivery environment to a minimal number of SDPs that work together and use modern software principles. such as SOA. which can be shared between applications. handling specific services. NG SDPs will evolve toward an environment in which various NG SDPs. expensive and slow service delivery environment. for greater efficiency and lower costs. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: CSPs have gone through numerous generations of SDP and consequently have a complex. including third-party content services and virtual network operator services. Therefore. customer relationship management. ERP and OSS applications. Over time. next-generation OSSs. ■ ■ ■ The underlying transmission services can be traditional telecom services (voice. enablers also include application storefronts and devices to create new content and services. Service enablers providing presence and location data. Mobile portal technology. policies. | G00214660 Page 73 of 139 .

and APIs for third-party content providers with a focus on content creation and delivery. At present. Nevertheless. Inc. most SDP implementations that support mobile services and mobile functionality are more advanced. as well as improvements to the user experience. Consumers. IT matters such as Web 2. horizontal evolution and proven return on investment for each module. such as third-party abstraction and application stores. revenue generation and improvements to the customer experience. small and midsize businesses and branch-office users could all benefit from an Page 74 of 139 Gartner. Over time. we expect the SDP increasingly to take on the role of service broker. For example. NG SDPs become key business enablers as focus shifts toward new business models that entail third-party participation. social media on the Internet. based on a modularized. However. The main focus of CSPs is the migration of NG IN and telco services to maximize revenue based on existing infrastructures. the current reality is that SDPs are deployed as multiple (often vertical) platforms. for example. A key factor in this context is the monetization of existing network and IT assets. SDP architectures show greater alignment with CSPs' needs. in order to gain experience of the new service delivery environment. and management and analytics relating to devices in this context. However. Many CSPs around the world are either evaluating or at various stages in the implementation of NG SDPs in order to enable the business case for new converged services. Additionally. as well as amplified partnerships with the "ecosystem" of third-party developers and content and application providers and next-generation intelligent network (NG IN) integration. will simultaneously become more imperative. This trend also leads to the acceleration of network and service exposure. CSPs should center their immediate efforts on pragmatic enhancements to existing telco services in order to leverage legacy assets for new composite services. they should refrain from a risky "big bang" approach. evolutionary enhancements of their existing architectures.CSPs understand the concept of a horizontal service delivery environment with third-party exposure. We also see a lot of hype around the enablement of application stores. the need for application development and legacy interoperability are among the main drivers of CSPs' investments in NG SDPs. while mitigating legacy investment in telecom networks and IT. with parts of the SDP moving into the cloud. using. Instead. the worldwide market for NG SDP products and services has matured over the past year. CSPs should not wait too long to tap into new domains. are very likely. NG SDP infrastructures gradually mature as CSPs tend to pursue modularized. as well as related partner settlement and charging. enablers such as presence and location could be exposed to third parties to help build and later charge for innovative IT services. However. Therefore. Network and service exposure. | G00214660 . User Advice: CSPs should invest swiftly in a more agile creation and delivery environment for innovative services so as to be able to anticipate new value chains and sources of revenue.0. a step-by-step deployment model should be used. service exposure and device enablers. which interoperate. application stores.

For cost-efficiency. such as hosted software as a service (SaaS).increased choice of services. HP. the Policy and Charging Rules Function (PCRF) is the policy entity that forms the link between the service and transport layers. authorizes quality-of-service Gartner. | G00214660 Page 75 of 139 . However. and CSPs work together to increase their reach. Multitenant services. Once these platforms are wellunderstood and embraced by major carriers. Inc. Oracle IMS Analysis By: Bettina Tratz-Ryan Definition: IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) is a standardized. regardless of the access network on which they run. Business Impact: NG SDPs will have a profound effect on the service experience of end users in the long term. and standardizes the signaling and control layer. Ericsson. Huawei. technology solutions and services. IMS separates session control from the actual applications for maximum flexibility. end users can also be "producers. They must define their architecture and ensure ease of integration by minimizing the number of tools and vendors they use. NG SDPs support the business case for new converged services without requiring heavy network investments. third-party content creation and settlement. scalabilty and time-to-market reasons. The PCRF collates subscriber and application data. It helps carriers build their strategy on the convergence of platforms. as well as on end-user devices and terminals. Benefit Rating: Transformational Market Penetration: 5% to 20% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Accenture. Within IMS. may be particularly well-suited to these models. including handsets and client premises equipment. Alcatel-Lucent. carriers are enablers and wholesale providers. large business users can develop or source customized services." additional revenue streams can come from nonend-user third parties (for example. so the effect is likely to be less dramatic there. Nokia Siemens Networks. together with network-based and Web-enabled applications and services. as well as enterprise services. From a technological perspective. To link all software components in a service delivery environment. open architecture based on Session Initiation Protocol (SIP). It defines how applications and services are delivered to customers. CSPs should evaluate alternative SDP delivery models. additional innovative services will become available to users through a high-performance and highly secure "carrier-grade" service environment. Flexible and open NG SDPs will also play an important role at the core of NG service networks. Additionally. IBM. In this model. advertisers). where they will be crucial for enabling the "multidimensional" next-generation telco business model. platform as a service (PaaS) and the cloud. The effect on CSPs' product creation capabilities will be significant as SDPs enable new content and services. CSPs will need to select and implement appropriate enterprise service bus and SOA tools.

Wireline operators need a carrier-grade. especially when communications service providers need to deal with traffic from over-the-top players and Web service providers. implementation has been mostly deployed by service providers to fulfill certain needs and requirements on a network level or a service environment. but it needs considerable system integration to deliver the promised results. instant messaging and active directory) using existing telephony. IMS will be able to support both fixed and mobile sessions. However. especially for Long Term Evolution (LTE) multimedia services. and service providers have selected vendor "ecosystems" to optimize an IMS-based network transformation solution around their specific core network requirements. such as e-healthcare and video surveillance via sensors and remote cameras. Business Impact: Network service providers will be able to support. Mobile operators are pursuing the IMS topology from a home subscriber server and application layer perspective and are interested in IMS RCS delivering a standardized set of applications (presence. the IMS application enablers. Inc. and value-added services. voice and multimedia mail. voice and collaboration applications for specific enterprise and consumer customers. Deploy IMS-capable softswitches and proceed with IMScompliant service delivery platforms. Control. together with initiatives such as IMS Rich Communication Suite (RCS). In addition. and they are interested in fixed-mobile service convergence for enterprise customers. such as to build out converged data. In the longer term. An increasing number of service bundles for smarter applications. Network service providers will also be able to collapse various network layers to gain cost savings. but rather as a supplemental service capability. This function becomes interesting. During the past few years. Watch for new service opportunities in the RCS community to justify mobile network development. The world's largest carriers will embrace IMS. future-proof voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) platform blended with IPTV. IMS will have an impact on Page 76 of 139 Gartner. In the future. so it will help in carrier interoperability. IMS will be applicable to fixed and mobile operators. Residential and enterprise customers will be able to obtain more "carrier grade" services via a single terminal.resources. This remains a critical issue. will become offerings of CSPs. control and charge for differentiated session delivery for multimedia services with a standards-based architecture. as well as cable operators. will enable the communications service providers (CSPs) to build out services to vertical customers such as energy utilities. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The architecture around the IMS topology and the logic behind it has matured. User Advice: IMS is a promising long-term architecture for session control. because many blended services receive only a limited return on investment. Many deployments stem from fixed-line operators in their voice migration toward next-generation voice. | G00214660 . will support the creation of compelling new services that will provide subscribers with an end-user experience they are willing to pay for. There are many competing IMS offerings from vendors. with one authentication point for address book. because in future iterations of the architecture. Consider vendors that have experience in technology migration and have the necessary capabilities to provide the integration and application development skills. even television via IP could be linked using IMS. IPTV should not be seen as a panacea for successful IMS implementation. and instructs the transport plane on how to proceed with the underlying data traffic. The success hinges on the quick availability of IMS terminals. and IMS will become a facilitator for those services. as well as abstraction layers into service delivery architectures. the migration from an existing network topology to IMS continued to be quite complex. implementing rich communication suites in lockstep.

3ah) solutions. Italtel. the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) approved 802. Asymmetrical 10G-PON (specified by the Full Service Access Network [FSAN] as XG-PON1) provides 10 Gbps downstream and 2.2 10G-PON standards with asymmetrical and symmetrical implementations. or for the deployment of broadband to high-density multidwelling units. basically offering higher bandwidth and additional features. 10G-PON uses different downstream and upstream wavelengths (1.5 Gbps upstream.987.270nm respectively) to those used by GPON.577 nanometers [nm] and 1.future mobile LTE broadband network designs and. Sonus.3av as a 10G-EPON standard. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Adolescent Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent.984) and Ethernet passive optical network (EPON) (IEEE 802. therefore. ZTE Recommended Reading: "Magic Quadrant for Softswitch Architecture" "Vendor Rating: Alcatel-Lucent" "Vendor Rating: Ericsson" "Vendor Rating: Huawei" "Vendor Rating: ZTE" 10G-PON Analysis By: Ian Keene Definition: 10 Gbps passive optical network (10G-PON) is a next-generation solution following the current-generation gigabit passive optical network (GPON) (ITU-T G. Inc. including both 10/1 Gbps and symmetrical 10 Gbps implementations. Huawei. This allows communications service providers (CSPs) to supply GPON services to the majority of their subscribers. so that both systems can coexist on the same fiber architecture. such as enterprises.1 and G. In September 2009. Symmetrical 10G-PON (specified by FSAN as XG-PON2) provides 10 Gbps both ways. Nokia Siemens Networks. 10G-PON will allow multiple users to share the capacity over a passive fiber-optic "tree" infrastructure. where the fibers to individual users branch out from a single fiber running to a network node. Like its predecessors.987. NEC Japan. Ericsson. future services that will be enabled on this architecture. In October 2010. the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) approved the ITU-T G. | G00214660 Page 77 of 139 . while providing higher-bandwidth 10G-PON to premium subscribers. Gartner. Metaswitch Networks.

The fixed-access market is a high-volume market. and the price tag that technology providers will put on 10G-PON will be shaped not only by production cost. Portugal and France. there is another shorter-term market opportunity for 10GPON products. with 10G-PON lower on capital expenditure and WDM-PON potentially lower on operating expenditure due to its long (100 km) reach that can eliminate many central office locations. In either scenario. with examples in the U. User Advice: Expect the price premium for asynchronous 10G-PON relative to current-generation PON to erode over time.. Another scenario for widespread deployments of 10G-PON solutions that could potentially move 10G-PON to the Plateau of Productivity is an upgrade scenario in which current-generation PON deployments start to run out of bandwidth — but with CSPs struggling to fully leverage the bandwidth of current-generation GPON/EPON solutions.Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Outside Japan and China. as multiple system operators there have traditionally tended to favor EPON over G-PON. as when GPON replaced broadband passive optical network (BPON) (ITUT G. The equipment cost is a relatively minor component of the FTTH TCO. When evaluating the price premium for 10G-PON. For this reason. When it reaches this point. With civil works and fiber installation cost typically accounting for most of the total cost. 10G-PON has been moved significantly along the Hype Cycle. The evolution in the TCO for CSPs will be different from the evolution in the equipment cost for technology providers.S. most "greenfield" deployments will switch to 10G-PON. 10G-PON is likely to compete against wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) PON solutions. ensure you do so from a total cost perspective.983). While comparatively low in volume compared with the consumer access market. but also by the competitive landscape that providers of 10G-PON solutions will be facing. However. might be an exception to this. Growing numbers of CSPs are conducting 10G-PON trials.S. The U. and the challenge facing current-generation fiber to the home (FTTH) PON technologies is related more to deployment cost than to limited capacity. 10G-PON is expected to dominate over 10G-EPON. this scenario is less likely than the nearcost parity scenario. There is growing interest in overlaying synchronous 10G-PON on existing GPON networks to supply enterprises with high-bandwidth. This implies that the time it will take 10G-PON to reach the Plateau of Productivity on the Hype Cycle will probably be determined by how quickly the total cost of ownership (TCO) for 10G-PON comes close enough (usually within 15% to 25%) to the TCO of current-generation PON to become attractive. synchronous 10G-PON is a technology that CSPs can leverage in their effort to be effective providers of public cloud services. Inc. low-latency access to cloud computing services. reaching this cost point can really be a possibility only for asynchronous 10G-PON due to the high cost of 10 Gbps upstream lasers within the optical network terminal. the price Page 78 of 139 Gartner. While the expected time to reach the Plateau of Productivity in this Hype Cycle is based on consumer FTTH as the target market. | G00214660 .

The Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) has defined networksharing scenario requirements. 2008-2015. | G00214660 Page 79 of 139 . architectures and functions in its Release 6. 2008-2015. This introduces two network-sharing architectural configurations: the Gateway Core Network (GWCN) configuration and the Multi-Operator Core Network (MOCN) configuration. Gartner. Worldwide. Inc. Motorola Recommended Reading: "Emerging Technology Analysis: Next-Generation Broadband Access Caters for End-User Bandwidth Appetite" "Forecast Analysis: Carrier Network Infrastructure. When deploying or evaluating current-generation PON solutions. CSPs should evaluate synchronous 10-GPON as a potential part of any plan to provide enterprise cloud services. especially radio access network (RAN) sharing. Network sharing. is seriously considered in mobile infrastructure construction. either through joint ownership of network resources or by third-party-enabled network sharing (open networks). Business Impact: 10G-PON could become the mainstream PON technology as the price premium relative to current-generation PON diminishes. In principle. but it is most widely discussed in the context of open fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) networks and the joint ownership of various infrastructure components of mobile networks. Worldwide.difference between current-generation PON and 10G-PON is lower from a total cost perspective than from a pure equipment cost perspective. network sharing can happen with any technology. but it also offers itself as one of the possible upgrade paths for CSPs that have already deployed current-generation PON solutions. 2Q11 Update" "Magic Quadrant for Fiber-to-the-Home Equipment" Network Sharing Analysis By: Peter Kjeldsen Definition: Network sharing is defined as a situation in which two or more communications service providers (CSPs) share network resources. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Adolescent Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. consider future upgrades either to 10G-PON or WDM-PON solutions. 2Q11 Update" "Forecast: Carrier Network Infrastructure. Huawei.

and that the estimated time to reach the Plateau of Productivity applies to adoption by relevant CSPs.e. Vodafone and Orange in Spain. Telstra and Hutchison 3G in Australia. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Network sharing as a business model has been around for some years: ■ Joint ownership of resources has been seen as a way to cap rollout costs for mobile networks. Network sharing as defined in this summary is (a) technology-agnostic. open networks were seen mainly in FTTH rollouts involving utilities and municipalities. administration and maintenance (OAM) tools are used together with appropriate processes that take the shared interests and responsibilities fully into account — and both types of sharing can be significantly affected by regulatory decisions. Scenarios include different types of sharing that involve joint ownership of backhaul infrastructure. Both passive and active network sharing require that appropriate operations. ■ ■ ■ Note that the business models associated with network sharing will not appeal to all CSPs.. cell towers and RAN base stations. as it could prove a cost. FTTH initiatives in many different countries offer examples of this development. fibers.. with Singapore and Australia being prime examples. Inc. | G00214660 . TeliaSonera and Teles in Sweden. not to all CSPs. and Yota in Russia. but the open-network business model has experienced a renaissance as a result of government stimulus packages implemented to mitigate the effects of the financial crisis. it may be relevant to distinguish between scenarios where CSPs decide to share their existing infrastructure and scenarios where two or more CSPs invest in new shared infrastructure. Telus and Bell Canada in Canada. RAN sharing has been practiced by T-Mobile and Hutchison 3G in the U.K. radio towers and so on) than active components (i. Ericsson. It should also be noted that some CSPs will probably pursue more aggressive networksharing strategies abroad than in their home markets.S. as seen with the June 2011 announcement Page 80 of 139 Gartner. radio units and so on) — both in terms of allocating shared costs and the operational challenges of running the network. depending on the context. Gartner expects that network sharing will attract more attention for Long Term Evolution (LTE) than 3G. Until recently. and (c) includes both sharing of existing infrastructure as well as investments in new shared infrastructure. Nokia Siemens Networks and Huawei are network infrastructure vendors that have proved able to support RAN sharing.and spectrum-efficient way to deploy LTE — examples include Sprint and LightSquared in the U.. Third-party-enabled network sharing via open networks has attracted regulatory attention because of this model's ability to lower entry barriers for CSPs. while still allowing for differentiation in the higher parts of the value chain. (b) includes both active and passive sharing. and Hutchison 3G and Telenor in Sweden. as well as core network components like data switches and softswitches.In most cases it will be simpler to share passive infrastructure (e. and the financial crisis has sharpened CSPs' focus here. network nodes. In the third-generation (3G) cellular era.g. Finally.

These are often unattractive. The business impact of any instance of network sharing depends on the type of sharing (open or bilateral. the regulatory conditions and the competitive landscape in which the sharing occurs. it tends to attract most attention in capital expenditure (capex)-intensive scenarios unfolding during tough economic conditions. network sharing can stimulate competition throughout the value chain by breaking down barriers to entry in the lower parts of the value chain. Netadmin Systems. there is a big difference between the vertically integrated monopolies of the past. thereby reducing risk factors for the individual CSPs' business cases. Network sharing is sometimes associated with a return to the monopoly days that preceded widespread telecom deregulation. which spanned the entire value chain. User Advice: Network sharing should be considered by CSPs wanting to minimize their investments in the lower parts of the value chain. Nokia Siemens Networks Recommended Reading: "Dataquest Insight: Radio Access Network Sharing Is One of the Key Success Factors in LTE" Gartner. CSPs should carry out careful analyses before embarking on network-sharing schemes. the type of infrastructure shared. especially when the sharing will have an irreversible impact on their market position. However. 3G and 4G) in Denmark. Inc. for example). Regulatory risks should be evaluated and the management overhead associated with network sharing should be explicitly addressed in the underlying business case. However. In fact. Benefit Rating: Transformational Market Penetration: 5% to 20% of target audience Maturity: Adolescent Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. as CSPs are looking for real differentiation in the higher parts of the value chain. Ericsson. and should carefully analyze if critical abilities to differentiate against competition are lost. Business Impact: The sharing of network infrastructure by CSPs lowers the overall investment needed for basic network infrastructure. Huawei.from Telenor and TeliaSonera about their plans for creating a shared mobile infrastructure (2G. which affect only a small part of the value chain. Network sharing levels the playing field between CSPs by reducing the entry barriers for prospective players. It is interesting to notice that network sharing has gone from being a very controversial undertaking to a commonly accepted strategic option. | G00214660 Page 81 of 139 . As such. and the network-sharing schemes of today. They should consider network sharing only when this approach resonates with their core strategy.

Networked systems that connect the physical world. the DirectAccess feature for remote management). like sensor networks. Inc. integrated security and quality-ofservice mechanisms. process automation systems. and the regional registry responsible for assignments in Asia/Pacific (APNIC) is ceasing to allocate IPv4 addresses for networks with more than 1. the situation is different for enterprises. are another area of development. The commercial availability of wireless sensor products that support the v6-only protocol. In 2011. large network operators may see better routing stability as platforms mature. advanced metering infrastructure. In addition. and industrial automation protocols such as International Organization for Standardization 100 could suddenly drive billions of devices into an IPv6 Internet. Yet the installed base of IPv4 devices is huge and will not migrate soon. both the public Internet and the typical corporate/government network will carry both IPv4 and IPv6 traffic. as well as support for autoconfiguration and mobility. asset management and building automation networks. known as 6LoWPAN (IPv6 over low-power wireless personal-area networks). Willis Definition: Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6) is the next version of Internet Protocol (IP). Position and Adoption Speed Justification: IPv4 address exhaustion is occurring. By 2015.024 hosts. they will see pockets of IPv6 appearing more frequently — protocol support is built in and used in certain functions (for example. The main benefits of IPv6 are vastly increased address space. For them. designed to overcome several key limitations of IP version 4 (IPv4). the largest blocks were fully assigned by the Internet Assigned Numbers Authority. using private IP addressing inside their organizations while managing their pool of routable addresses conservatively. Page 82 of 139 Gartner."Dataquest Insight: The Devil Is in the Detail. As the Internet grows. increasingly restricting new IPv4 allocations. While many public networks will move aggressively. Other registries will follow. the most widely used networking protocol. Making Radio Site Sharing in LTE and 3G Environments Different" "Australian Government Addresses Competition Problem with National Fiber-to-the-Premises Plan" "Governments Can Bring Moore's Law to Broadband Access (February 2006 Update)" "A Business Model for Next-Generation Broadband Access (February 2006 Update)" "Why Governments Should Care About Fiber-to-the-Home" IPv6 Analysis By: David A. IPv6 usage will grow along with it. | G00214660 . 17% of the global Internet will use IPv6. As enterprise customers migrate to Windows 7. the actual depletion date for public addresses is not critical because most enterprises use relatively few public IP addresses. with 28% of new Internet users running the protocol. Through 2020.

Benefit Rating: Low Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Gartner. Because an expanding part of the Internet's population will be natively IPv6. Enterprises transitioning to new operating systems should be prepared to support some remote IPv6 clients. systems should be ready to support IPv6. so clients must take charge of providing native support. Inc. but a large replacement of existing IPv4 services is ill advised. | G00214660 Page 83 of 139 . As businesses replace network infrastructure. Serving IPv6 customers via IPv4-only hosts will result in a poor experience for many users. IPv4 and mixed environments at scale. which allows nearly all backbone networks to stay with the current protocol. Fortunately. they should ensure that their vendors have a credible IPv6 strategy — every piece of infrastructure equipment should have IPv6 support implemented at minimum in software. Business Impact: There will be little or no effect for businesses. IPv4/IPv6 coexistence technologies work well at a relatively small scale. Look for IPv6 Ready Logo certification as a measure of a product's conformance to standards and interoperability. By the middle of the decade. This will take the form of providing dual-stack. such as F5. Aggressive adoption will often be disruptive to operations. most of the benefits of IPv6 can be delivered with current IP (IPv4) workarounds. high-performance gateways) should implement IPv6 handling in hardware. routers. Migration costs are very high for established IP networks. providing gateway services and dual-stack capabilities as needed. especially as the trend "picks up steam. The protocol will rapidly appear in pockets. so IPv6 management must become a system administrator competency. public-facing services (such as Web and mail hosts) should be first on the list to migrate." We expect that carrier-grade network address translation gateways will become overwhelmed. especially in Asia and the developing world. Through 2013. and foundational equipment (switches. we will see the migration of many public-facing services to dual-stack IPv4/v6. But external services serving IPv6 customers must be moved or enterprises risk delivering a poor user experience. Benefits will be seen only by very large networks operated by carriers and the military. Expect to support both IPv6 and IPv4 through at least 2020. and attempts to transition even moderate-size networks have revealed many unexpected problems and hidden costs. Brocade and Radware. The transition should be made in a measured fashion.User Advice: The time for selective deployment of IPv6 is near. Those aggressively adopting wireless sensor network technologies should use IPv6-based systems (6LoWPAN). such as network address translation and IPsec. gateway and tunnel support. Enterprises should plan to provide limited internal IPv6 support by 2012 if they plan a broad move to Windows 7 and expect to use the DirectAccess feature extensively. Another alternative is for the enterprise to use translation gateway capabilities from vendors of application delivery controllers. Beyond the applications already noted. Citrix. which need only avoid disruptions that new users running the protocol could create.

Maturity: Adolescent Sample Vendors: AT&T; Brocade; BT Group; Cisco; Citrix Systems (NetScaler); F5; Juniper Networks; Nortel; NTT Communications; Orange Business Services; Radware Recommended Reading: "Internet Protocol Version 6: It's Time for (Limited) Action" "Changeover to IPv6: The Deadline Approaches" "Q&A: Windows 7 DirectAccess Challenges Remote-Access VPNs" "Planning for the Security Features of Windows 7"

802.16-2009
Analysis By: Phillip Redman; Joy Yang Definition: IEEE 802.16 is a series of wireless broadband standards authored by the IEEE, with current implementations known as WiMAX technology. The current version is IEEE 802.16-2009. It consolidates and obsoletes IEEE Standards 802.16-2004, 802.16e-2005 and 802.16-2004, 802.16f-2005, and 802.16g-2007. The most popular implementation of the IEEE 802.16 standard is the Mobile Wireless MAN, originally defined by the 802.16e-2005 amendment that is being deployed around the world in more than 140 countries by more than 475 operators. This technology succeeds and replaces the one originally on 802.16e-e2005. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Mobile WiMAX still gets limited uptake globally and is used mostly for semimobile fixed access in developing countries. We have not seen accelerated growth, any new infrastructure or device suppliers, nor any additional Tier 1 operators choose WiMAX as their next-generation technology. Even Clearwire, the joint venture between Sprint and Clearwire and the largest carrier to use mobile WiMAX in a national network, is already testing TDLTE for potential replacement of WiMAX. TD-LTE, which is another time division duplex (TDD) technology, gained strong support from the ecosystem, and has been widely tested by communications service providers (CSPs) worldwide, and will be adopted as the replacement for WiMAX. In the end, we think WiMAX will remain a niche technology with minor service adoption. User Advice: Consider WiMAX as a broadband access service, especially if no alternative infrastructure is commercially available and national roaming isn't needed. WiMAX can also be considered an alternative for Wi-Fi on campuses for enterprise wireless data connections, if deployed in an unlicensed spectrum. However, enterprise customers should leverage product portfolios or ecosystems in which as many products and solutions as possible are certified to gain the cost economics and vendor support for technology road maps, especially for end-user devices and terminals. Business Impact: WiMAX is a semimobile technology that will be used for defined areas, such as DSL fill-in in rural regions, rather than as a nationwide system for voice and data. Benefit Rating: Low

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Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Adolescent Sample Vendors: Alvarion; Clearwire Communications; Motorola Solutions; Samsung

Broadband Over Power Lines
Analysis By: Zarko Sumic Definition: Broadband over power line (BPL) technology — also called power line communications (PLC) — is a landline means of communication that uses established electrical power transmission and distribution lines. A service provider can transmit voice and data traffic by superimposing an analog signal over a standard alternating electrical current of 50Hz or 60Hz. Traditionally, the promise of BPL appeared to reside in electrical engineering domains, in which looping the transformers was cost-effective (for example, in Europe and Asia/Pacific, where, because of higher secondary distribution service voltage, several hundred consumers are served by one transformer, as opposed to North America, where only up to seven consumers are served by one transformer). However, with the recent development of new technologies and technological improvements, embedded utility infrastructures can be used to deliver voice, video and data services. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Utilities, searching for options to increase revenue, are revisiting BPL, and, at the same time, exploring its potential to improve utility functions. Business models that highlight utility-focused applications, such as advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), appear to be driving new implementations — particularly in Europe, where they still have a strong presence. However, other broadband technologies — particularly WiMAX — are evolving faster and moving into position to take large portions of the addressable market for Internet access. User Advice: BPL technology is maturing, but some technical issues still must be resolved (such as tunneling/bypassing distribution transformers, signal attenuation and radio interference). Distribution feeders are dynamic in nature, resulting in changing network parameters as a consequence of capacitor and line regulator switching for voltage control, as well as sectionalizing and transfer switching. Utilities should understand that most BPL systems must be retuned for optimal performance every time a distribution component gets switched in or out of the network. Therefore, close collaboration should be established between BPL personnel and planning engineers to consider BPL dynamics in circuit design and operations. BPL continues to lag behind other mainstream broadband communications technologies, which are attracting substantially more R&D investments. Although BPL is not yet fully mature, electric utilities and broadband service providers should follow BPL development and conduct technical feasibility and economic viability studies. BPL appears to be more appropriate as a communications channel for AMI and other utility control-monitoring functions (although some initial deployments have raised performance concerns), while less appropriate for Internet access services. BPL must be evaluated as a vehicle that can increase system reliability, improve the use of the distribution asset, and

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enable sophisticated energy management and demand-response options, rather than as a new revenue source from entry into the broadband market. Utilities considering deployment of AMI, focused on either achieving utility-centered operational benefits (such as meter reading cost reduction, outage notification and revenue protection) or wanting to avoid out-of-schedule meter reads to support retail switching, can still find BPL-based communications appropriate for their needs. However, utilities focused on finer-granularity consumption data to support energy efficiency initiatives or on the use of consumption data for asset optimization will find BPL's limited bandwidth to be an obstacle. Users must ensure that business models, regulatory issues, and proper divisions between broadband service and utility functions have been addressed before attempting rollouts. In addition, users need to consider that, due to the smaller scale and investment level compared with other mainstream communication technologies, BPL will become obsolete, which will impact product and supplier viability and deployment, resulting in a "stranded asset." Business Impact: Affected areas include broadband communications and energy management services, such as on-premises, "home-plug-type" provisioning for consumer energy management applications, and AMI or automated-meter-reading deployment projects. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Obsolete Sample Vendors: Ambient; Amperion; Echelon; MainNet Recommended Reading: "Management Update: Top 10 Technology Trends Impacting the Energy and Utility Industry in 2011"

802.11k-2008
Analysis By: Tim Zimmerman; Michael J. King Definition: The 802.11k-2008 radio resource measurement is an Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) specification designed to standardize the measurement and reporting of performance information from the wireless client to the access point (AP) about the Wi-Fi environment. By evaluating the quality of connections, better decisions can be made about roaming, load balancing and the quality of service offered by the wireless infrastructure. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The IEEE approved this standard in mid-2008, but the adoption of 802.11k, as well as 802.11r, has been linked to the Wi-Fi Alliance Voice-Enterprise certification, which is not expected until 2012. The Wi-Fi Alliance has taken the lead as the organization that measures and enforces interoperability within the industry, and until the certification process is complete, few vendors will invest in developing the functionality. User Advice: As wireless LANs (WLANs) are increasingly the access layer of choice for a growing number of users, the confidence in the WLAN must match that of the standard wired LAN. This is
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11k increases the amount of information about the client that is available to the AP. Motorola 802. | G00214660 Page 87 of 139 .11r-2008 Analysis By: Tim Zimmerman. The Wi-Fi Alliance has taken the lead as the organization that measures and enforces interoperability in the industry. voice and video applications. thereby enabling the wireless infrastructure to make the best decisions based on real-world reporting. for better handoffs and more warning about signal drop-offs or AP oversubscription. Gartner expects that vendors will continue using proprietary extensions beyond the standard to differentiate functionality to improve quality of service for data. Business Impact: 802. As part of the Wi-Fi Enterprise-Voice certification requirements.11r-2008 as a standard as part of an amendment regarding Basic Service Set (BSS). which is not expected until 2012.11k will become a standard part of any voice over WLAN (VoWLAN) solution. This amendment enables a secure. The intent of the amendment is to simplify the process that access points and clients must perform to hand off clients from one access point to the next. such as voice over wireless LAN (VoWLAN) and mobile video. client and. AP load balancing. until the certification process is complete. fast-roaming functionality is most noticeable when deploying losssensitive applications. the adoption of 802. Gartner. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Because all vendors have proprietary versions of fast hand-offs for their networks. while they're roaming among wireless LAN (WLAN) access points. Enterprises that have voice requirements should use the standard. The need for standardized. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 5% to 20% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Aruba Networks. Inc. after the client moves out of coverage range of the access point where it was associated.only possible when the client and AP have information regarding client interference issues.11r has been linked to the Wi-Fi Alliance VoiceEnterprise certification. It's also useful for applications that are designed around wired latency levels. client roaming and AP subscription. by way of AP reporting. Avaya. Fast roaming is achieved by quick reassociation and transfer of security credentials to a new access point. rather than solely AP-to-AP measures or other vendor algorithms. King Definition: The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers' (IEEE's) subcommittee has ratified 802. Michael J. This will enable better decisions to be made between the client and the AP. the implementation of 802. and. fast hand-off experience for clients. few vendors will invest in developing the functionality. Cisco. once available. because it will be the common denominator to which many will have tested their products. as a baseline for vendor capabilities. the controller application.

see "Glossary of Mobile and Wireline Carrier Network Infrastructure Terminology. probably the last step before fourth-generation (4G) technology. The core specifications for Release 8 were completed by the end of 2007. Benefit Rating: Low Market Penetration: 5% to 20% of target audience Maturity: Adolescent Sample Vendors: Aerohive Networks. | G00214660 . as a baseline for vendor capabilities. System Architecture Evolution [SAE] and UMTS Terrestrial Radio Access Network [UTRAN]. (For definitions of MIMO.User Advice: Although ratifying 802. Cisco. WCDMA and Page 88 of 139 Gartner. Enterprises with voice requirements should use the standard. voice and video applications. and handovers between 3G and LTE. Aruba Networks. once available.11r as a standard will improve the base level of roaming functionality for devices as they move through the infrastructure. Inc. because it will be the common denominator against which many will have tested their products. 2010. OFDMA.11r will become the baseline requirement for enterprises that are looking to deploy VoWLAN. The more metrics that are defined to solidify the wireless environment. Currently. The standardization of another basic wireless element will motivate vendors to find new capabilities with which to differentiate themselves. Motorola Long Term Evolution Analysis By: Joy Yang Definition: Long Term Evolution (LTE) is a Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) venture to define the requirements and basic framework for the wideband code division multiple access (WCDMA) mobile radio access network beyond third-generation (3G) technology. Notably. Objectives with LTE include theoretical data rates of 100 Mbps downstream and 50 Mbps upstream in 20MHz of spectrum. the more confidence enterprises will have in using it as their primary access layer communication medium. it will not use code division multiple access (CDMA) for the radio layer.") LTE will come in two types — frequency division duplexing (FDD) and time division duplexing (TDD) — to support deployments in FDD spectrum and TDD spectrum. HP. most 3G communications service providers (CSPs) are adopting FDD-based 3G technologies. Business Impact: 802. there may be no perceptible difference for most mobile users where the requirement is for data only. and there is a major operator-driven effort by the European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) to cap intellectual property royalties for LTE at a maximum of 5% of the cost of the equipment. LTE is likely to employ multiple input/multiple output (MIMO). Gartner expects vendors to continue using proprietary extensions beyond the standard to differentiate functionality and improve quality of service for data. full mobility at speeds of up to 500 kilometers per hour. It is also known as Release 8. support for 3G network overlays. Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access (OFDMA) and single carrier frequency division multiple access (SC-FDMA) in the link layers.

including modules. which the One Voice organization is working on. North America and Japan are the early adopters. User Advice: CSPs have been deploying WCDMA. which will require new core and radio access networks. Options include circuit-based call fallback to 2G/3G networks and voice over IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS). High-Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA) and High-Speed Uplink Packet Access (HSUPA). along with the Evolved Packet Core (EPC) network elements. However. on 5MHz bands HSPA+ is just as spectrally efficient. End users should not wait for promises of an ideal technology. FDD LTE will be a reasonable next-step migration technology. and investigate upgrade options Gartner. which rely on circuit-based 2G and 3G technology. has been given up on by the industry. there were 98 available LTE user devices. USB dongles. routers.16m technology. and is continuing to see early adoption in 2011.cdma2000. | G00214660 Page 89 of 139 . another LTE voice solution. and they must carefully consider further upgrades for LTE.16m is competing directly with TDD LTE or TDD LTE advanced. Inc. and it could also be cheaper if CSPs do not add all the possible enhancements for HSPA+. TD-SCDMA. CSPs had announced 154 trials and commitments in more than 60 countries. which will be able to provide features competitive with LTE Advanced (LTE-A). tablet and phones. which leaves the WiMAX ecosystem looking slim. WiMAX 802. For them. by Hi3G in Sweden and Denmark. as well as new spectrum. and still has its niche market. The WiMAX Forum has claimed that WiMAX 16e will be able to migrate to next-generation 802. which will help drive the LTE market. in the early stages of LTE. several major mobile equipment vendors left the WiMAX market in 2008 and 2009. 20 commercial FDD LTE network had been launched in 14 countries. Within LTE. such as 2x2 MIMO. and WiMAX 806. By March 2011. Some operators have chosen to extend the life of their WCDMA networks by rolling out High-Speed Packet Access Evolution (HSPA+) technology. Voice over LTE via Generic Access (VoLGA). This may delay the need for LTE by a couple of years. but rather evaluate price/performance criteria. The development of tablets will boost data bandwidth demand from subscribers. The LTE ecosystem is maturing quickly. 64 quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) and additional carriers. by the end of May 2011. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: LTE gained momentum in 2010.16e has appeal as a last-mile access technology for fixed broadband networks in emerging markets. which has been adopted only by China Mobile. Western Europe. As per Global mobile Suppliers Association statistics.16e are TDD-based 3G technologies. choose the operator with the strongest service package. and two TDD LTE networks had been launched. 802. Furthermore. China Mobile is heavily promoting TDD LTE and is likely to adopt it as soon as it is ready for commercial use. Although LTE's performance is better overall. LTE still faces challenges to provide traditional voice and short message services. applications will focus on mobile data usage based on data cards and USB dongles. The evolution from High-Speed x Access (HSxPA) to HSPA+ would be less disruptive than going straight to LTE. and by Aero 2 in Poland. which leaves it little chance. the core network evolution from the general packet radio service (GPRS) packet core is covered by System Architecture Evolution (SAE). CSPs in other markets are aiming to launch services in 2012 or 2013.

Nokia Siemens Networks. Challenge LTE infrastructure vendors regarding the extent to which their HSxPA/HSPA equipment is forward-compatible with or "upgradable" to LTE. Upgrades from WCDMA to HSxPA have shown that "software-only upgrades" can have unexpected hardware impacts. 2008-2015. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Adolescent Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. 2011" MPLS-TP Analysis By: Peter Kjeldsen Page 90 of 139 Gartner. Mobile broadband will not be a perfect substitute for fiber or very-high-bit-rate DSL. as with each of the preceding 3GPP network releases. high-quality mobile broadband services to enterprises and residential users. typical data rates for mobile users are likely to be only 10% to 20% of the maximum theoretical rate — though this would still provide a significantly improved experience. ■ ■ ■ Business Impact: LTE has been widely trialed since 2009. Worldwide. Users should expect better performance. Motorola. Ericsson. Advice for CSPs: ■ Evaluate the revenue potential of mobile broadband to justify the cost of investing in technologies like LTE. 2Q11 Update" "Market Trends: China. North America and Japan. Third-Generation Cellular Networks. Prepare users for device upgrades by educating them about the benefits of fast mobile access. Focus on the user experience improvements that come with high speeds — including lower latency for voice and better Web surfing — rather than selling technology. NEC. such as Western Europe. Samsung. Inc. with potentially reduced operational costs for CSPs. Set realistic expectations about bandwidth speeds and resilience. ZTE Recommended Reading: "Marketing Essentials: How to Market LTE as the Next-Generation Mobile Infrastructure" "Magic Quadrant for LTE Network Infrastructure" "Forecast: Carrier Network Infrastructure. but. Plan to segment your service portfolio and offer value-added services to generate more revenue. It is being deployed to deliver high-bandwidth.for higher-bandwidth packages. Huawei. compared with HSxPA. and has been deployed by up to 20 major CSPs in leading markets. | G00214660 .

as such. Therefore. The battle that raged a few years ago between the Provider Backbone Bridge Traffic Engineering (PBBTE) (also referred to as Provider Backbone Transport [PBT]) and Transport (T)-MPLS camps did not encourage CSPs to adopt either technology. a potential move to MPLS-TP should be evaluated as a likely scenario. and together with its natural fit with MPLS this should be a technology that most CSPs will welcome. with the ITU-T Study Group 15 in February 2011 voting to proceed with its own OAM solution. MPLS-TP was started as a joint effort between the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF). Recently there has been disagreements between the ITU and the IETF regarding the finalization of the standards. and evaluate potential risks and possible mitigation options specific to their installed networks and future network strategies. aspire to eventually replace SDH/SONET in CSP networks. It now appears that there will be more than one flavor of MPLS-TP — at least from a standards perspective. we still expect the technology to be more than two years away from the Plateau of Productivity. CSPs are still expected to quickly adopt the MPLSTP technology. even though the need for innovation in this space has been evident for some time. CSPs expect that MPLS-TP will provide cost-effective mechanisms for aggregating and transporting data with well-defined network management capabilities. but the disagreements between the ITU and the IETF will be a concern and something that CSPs will want to understand the full implications from. User Advice: CSPs should evaluate MPLS-TP as a potential technology for their technology portfolio to reap the benefits of a standardized data-centric transport architecture. Inc. as the collaboration between the IETF and the ITU toward a unified standard has been seen as a clear advantage of MPLS-TP. This will be a disappointment to CSPs. CSPs should be aware of the conflict between the ITU and the IETF regarding the final shape of the standard. If they have already deployed PBB-TE or T-MPLS-based solutions. Gartner. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: CSPs are expected to welcome MPLS-TP as a standardized technology for cost-effective transport solutions for carrier Ethernet services. The technology is an attempt to marry the best ingredients of "Ethernet economy" and Synchronous Digital Hierarchy (SDH)/Synchronous Optical Network (SONET) reliability — and. The network architecture and network management principles behind MPLS-TP will be the same as those for SDH/SONET and Optical Transport Network (OTN). despite the technology having matured and the standards having progressed. The standardization process is now in advanced stages and prestandard commercial products have emerged. Business Impact: MPLS-TP is expected to offer a standardized solution for cost-effective transport of carrier-class Ethernet traffic. | G00214660 Page 91 of 139 .Definition: Multiprotocol Label Switching Transport Profile (MPLS-TP) is a connection-oriented packet-switched protocol which offers communications service providers (CSPs) a data-centric transport solution with conventional transport operations. administrations and maintenance (OAM) capabilities.

feel and lighting of different rooms being set up to aid the impression of sharing the same physical space with other counterparts). and the integration and management of these systems being such that they don't get in the way of collaboration. often dedicated to and designed for video traffic with minimal latency so that users can retain natural levels of spontaneity during interactions with other participants. with low-compression. LCD or projection screens. Cisco. unless integrated to provide some of the nontechnology aspects that make the environment immersive: the way in which the room is configured (with the look. such as H. Telepresence systems make high demands on the network. Nokia Siemens Networks Video Telepresence Analysis By: Scott Morrison. Adaptive solutions — both single and multiscreen — fit into established environments and cost considerably less than fully immersive suites.080p (progressive scan) lines of resolution. Huawei. Conference participants appear as life-size individuals on large plasma. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: 5% to 20% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. while "lite" solutions may be no different from regular HD room videoconferencing. Mason Definition: Video telepresence is a form of immersive video communication that creates the impression of being in the same room as other conference participants.It is significant that MPLS-TP was started as a joint ITU and IETF effort — even with the recent dispute between the two organizations — and that the architectural principles are based on proven technology that is widely adopted among CSPs. so that all audiovisual information becomes directional.264 Scalable Video Coding (SVC). providers are increasingly adopting new encoding standards. color tones and lighting that maximize the perception of realism. three-screen. Operational simplicity and high availability remain a key part of the added value in telepresence. acoustics. without the connectivity problems associated with traditional room videoconferencing solutions. Telepresence suites are designed and configured by the system supplier to provide layout. Robert F. CSPs are risk-averse when adopting new technologies. and MPLS-TP is perceived as a relatively low-risk path toward more packet-centric optical transport architectures. | G00214660 . Systems are designed to enable anyone to use them to their full potential. HD rooms taking anything from 8 Mbps to 45 Mbps of dedicated bandwidth for video and content. to allow for the use Page 92 of 139 Gartner. Multiple cameras and microphones pick up individuals or pairs of individuals. Ciena. Inc. Ericsson. However. They are typically deployed across Multiprotocol Label Switching (MPLS) networks. the technological differences between immersive and nonimmersive forms of telepresence have become blurred." With most videoconferencing solutions now capable of running high-definition (HD) video resolution at 1. with little or no prior training. with good eye contact and spatial sound aligned with the location of the person speaking. The term "telepresence" has slowly but surely become synonymous with "videoconferencing.

using Telepresence Interoperability Protocol (TIP). but the added dimension afforded by telepresence makes new forms of virtual communications feasible for users who benefit from the increased productivity and speed of decision making as a result. through protracted negotiations on bilateral peering. and around 4. Vendors are now going beyond interlinking telepresence rooms with other videoconferencing endpoints — a key focus now is on enabling any unified communications soft client to connect. When selecting a solution. combined with a common architecture for enabling multiscreen system interoperability.000 single-screen systems from the same product lines. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The primary use of telepresence in most organizations remains for internal meetings or meetings with clients and partners who come to the company premises as a way to reduce travel.000 videoconferencing endpoints. and reaches far more users. User Advice: Organizations should consider video telepresence as the high end of their videoconferencing technology requirements. will help to push telepresence islands toward interconnectivity.of best-effort or contended bandwidth. the process is inexorable. Most mature telepresence deployments have a ratio of one telepresence system per 10 regular room-based videoconferencing systems. Gartner expects telepresence adoption to continue to be driven by larger organizations and specific vertical industries. telemedicine. against a total market of nearly 200. collaboration and unified communications programs. but from a small base. While many service providers have continued to slow the pace of interconnection. Growth in demand has been very strong. and most vendors have either adopted this or stated publicly their intention to do so by the first half of 2012. Year-over-year growth in demand for desktop video is equally strong. The hospitality and managed office industries are now beginning to roll out telepresence suites for pay per use in their conference centers.264 SVC is the key technology mechanism being used. | G00214660 Page 93 of 139 . Inc. systems with multiple video screens and cameras) were sold in 2010. organizations should consider video telepresence in the context of their wider productivity. such as government. pharmaceuticals. consumer products and motion pictures/entertainment. Gartner. While this initially increases the mix of encoding standards in the market. albeit at a substantially higher cost. higher-quality group videoconferencing experience than a traditional room-based or desktop videoconferencing solution. rather than a stand-alone solution. banking.000 multicodec systems (that is. the collaboration features lend themselves increasingly to project management and engineering environments. and the addressable market for telepresence systems is limited to a combination of larger sites in Fortune 5000 companies and specific applications in other sectors. Many telepresence vendors are taking the technologies and capabilities first provided in immersive environments and placing them in lower-cost solutions down to the desktop level. Only around 2. its future widespread use. Telepresence can deliver a more immersive. where travel is not necessarily being avoided. including financial services. The wider use of H. professional services and healthcare. However. hightechnology manufacturing.

policy and behavioral measures are required. | G00214660 . HP. additional governance. LifeSize. To facilitate higher line rates without sacrificing transmission reach. but the costs associated with infrastructure are significant. A key benefit of telepresence. However.000 per screen/codec (so a three-screen environment will cost around $100. Teliris Telepresence Recommended Reading: "MarketScope for Video Telepresence Systems" "Telepresence Is Coming Home: Are You Ready?" "Building a Global Videoconferencing Strategy" 40 Gbps Transport Analysis By: Peter Kjeldsen Definition: To address accelerating traffic growth. particularly topdown mandating of video as an alternative to face-to-face meetings. Polycom. The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) ratified the 802. transport systems are increasing channel capacity from 10 Gbps data rates to 40 Gbps. is its ability to displace the need for travel by highly mobile executives. Inc. based on a 10-hour business day.to five-year period. Early adopters indicate that telepresence has boosted usage rates into the 30% to 40% range for organizations. to lower travel costs and emissions. often less than 18 months. travel cost reductions and improved productivity will provide a business case with a relatively short payback period. and the networking and managed services costs will typically be double the capital investment in the system over a three. this can help reduce Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions. Magor Communications.ieee. compared with less than an hour per day for unmanaged videoconferencing systems. even over other forms of video communications. with differential phase shift keying being the most widely adopted enabling technology to address this evolution. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Early mainstream Sample Vendors: Cisco.3ba standard in June 2010 (see http://standards. Public utility services are still not widely available. The cost of some immersive endpoint solutions has fallen to around $35. 40 Gbps (and also 100 Gbps) line rates are already standardized for Synchronous Digital Hierarchy/ Synchronous Optical Network (SDH/SONET) and optical transport network (OTN) by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU).org/announcements/ Page 94 of 139 Gartner. Increased usage is key to cost justification and customer success with telepresence. From an environmental perspective.000). Telepresence typically demands a utilization rate of more than three hours per day — three to four times what most organizations achieve with traditional videoconferencing.Business Impact: For regular telepresence users. limiting the benefit they bring to enterprises wishing to extend the reach of their own telepresence footprint. solution providers have had to introduce more advanced modulation schemes and thus more complex transceivers.

However. Business Impact: The relentless traffic growth is driving the demand for more capacity at lower cost per bit. economies-of-scale are being realized and the pricing barrier is being lowered. 40 Gbps will be a natural step on the way to 100 Gbps transport line rates.5 to 3 — so there is an economy-ofscale aspect to moving up in terms of channel rate. and is rapidly closing the remaining gap. A number of routing platforms utilize 40 Gbps interfaces. With large CSPs adopting the technology. This allows CSPs to consider the move to higher line rate systems in the wider context of what their future optical transport architecture should look like.html). and 40 Gbps will continue as part of the solution hierarchy after 100 Gbps is introduced (just as 10 Gbps and 2. CSPs should evaluate investments in 40 Gbps system as an integral part of their overall transport strategy — and also consider if waiting for 100 Gbps systems is a viable path. Ciena. ZTE Mobile Advertising Analysis By: Andrew Frank Gartner. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Commercial deployments are gaining momentum in long-haul backbones and metropolitan networks alike. economies of scale have kicked in to the point where the carrier cost of deploying 40 Gbps technology compares favorably with alternative approaches based on 10 Gbps technology (when comparing cost per transmitted bit). | G00214660 Page 95 of 139 . moving to a channel rate that is four times higher only increases the cost by a factor of 2. User Advice: With many CSPs already adopting this technology. which will allow communications service providers (CSPs) to carry 40 Gbps and 100 Gbps Ethernet directly over transport networks supporting these line rates. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 20% to 50% of target audience Maturity: Early mainstream Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. Traditionally. Ericsson.2010/ratification8023ba. The technology is mature enough for deployment as traffic demand and price points line up. 100 Gbps will take a few more years than 40 Gbps to be cost-effective. just as 10 Gbps was the step that preceded 40 Gbps solutions. Nokia Siemens Networks. Huawei.5 Gbps are still being used). which is an important driver toward wider adoption of 40 Gbps transport solutions. 40 Gbps is almost there in terms of cost. Inc. Infinera. both in metropolitan and long-haul networks. it should be noted that the 40 Gbps life cycle will likely be compressed compared to the 10 Gbps life cycle (which experienced an early onset with the "optical bubble" back in 2000 as well as extended "prime time" due to the financial crises) and the 100 Gbps life cycle (which appears to be in line for an early onset due to early standardization and technology progress).

as many of the business models and practices. This category was formerly limited to handset-based screens. print and out-of-home signage. or about 4% of total ad expenditures. The key to these applications is the use of microphones and cameras as input devices that can recognize audio and visual cues. Inc. are replicated and refined for the mobile channel. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Aided by a notable recovery in ad spending overall. | G00214660 . To reduce ambiguity. making these platforms nearly indispensable for advertisers. and. automation platforms. including television. such as privacy. or from mobile communications service providers (CSPs) or manufacturers that provide portals on certain devices. the mobile advertising category has accelerated its evolution over the past year. as well as broadcast content (TV and radio). Gartner forecasts nearly 1 billion smartphones and about 350 million media tablets will be sold in 2015. Mobile advertising encompasses a number of formats: ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Mobile Web banners and display ads (including rich media) Mobile in-application ads Mobile search and map-based ads Mobile in-stream video and audio ads Mobile display ads affixed to SMS or Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS) messages Mobile ads may be acquired through ad networks. the status of advertising within these cross-platform content formats becomes ambiguous. Since smartphones and media tablets are increasingly used to access Web content (much of which is not yet optimized for display on these devices). metrics.Definition: Mobile advertising is advertising or other paid placement on mobile device screens. such as audio fingerprints and watermarks (to synchronize with TV and radio) or quick response (QR) codes and image recognition (to extend messaging from print ads and signage). and context-aware interactive design techniques. entertainment and social networking devices. we consider mobile advertising to apply only to formats that are specifically optimized for wireless Internet delivery to a mobile device. standards and so forth. advertisers and content providers are discovering the utility of using a mobile device in concert with other media. Page 96 of 139 Gartner.6 billion worldwide. despite lingering issues. The growth of mobile advertising is also being streamlined by the many lessons learned through the 10-year emergence of Internet advertising. Along with mobile adoption of Web advertising concepts. Gartner expects the mobile advertising market to more than double over the next two years and to increase 12-fold by 2015 to $20. directly from mobile publishers or mobile app developers. This growth is being driven by robust consumer adoption of smartphones and media tablets. however. with the introduction of media tablets — most notably Apple's iPad — it has been expanded to include these screens as well. radio. which is changing the way consumers use and think about mobile devices — from primarily as phones to all-purpose information. such as ad networks and exchanges.

brands and agencies must consider ways to use mobile channels as a response mechanism in concert with other noninteractive formats. especially in retail sectors and other businesses that rely on direct response marketing. and not just as a stand-alone channel. other device sensors. a compass and an accelerometer. Add to these benefits projected growth in mobile payments (forecast by Gartner to have almost 350 million users worldwide in 2015) and mobile becomes an even more attractive promotional and transactional platform for advertisers. such as print and TV. | G00214660 Page 97 of 139 . ■ ■ ■ User Advice: ■ Brands and agencies must develop methods of evaluating the effectiveness of mobile campaigns across various mobile channels to optimize the use of mobile media in the marketing mix. many of the targeting methods developed for the Web. that have high creative potential but are expensive and limited in terms of reach and expertise. are widely unavailable on the mobile Web because of such factors as the default settings of Apple's mobile Safari browser. In particular. particularly on the part of CSPs to use phone-based customer data for ad targeting. The issue of privacy norms and regulations. This is likely to vary considerably by product category. especially for potentially attractive but controversial location-based concepts. such as publishing and financial services. remains uncertified and hampered by technical complexity. Meanwhile. must understand how to leverage the medium's ability to deliver nearby traffic to their offline stores and venues in a privacy-friendly way. Inc. such as Apple iAds. such as the use of thirdparty browser cookies. audience profile and region. For example: ■ Formats and standards. has also created controversy and reluctance. Metrics and measurement. Local advertisers. leading to the emergence of nonstandard device-specific platforms.In addition to microphones and cameras. Despite these positive signs. significant challenges do remain. Advertisers and agencies must also revise privacy policies to address new and potentially controversial targeting capabilities of mobile devices and systematically assess regional variations and partner practices. In summary. such as GPS. growth is likely to accelerate in the coming years. which are set to reject third-party cookies. Privacy and targeting. ■ ■ Gartner. in particular. Existing ad standards from organizations such as the Mobile Marketing Association (MMA) and the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) are widely considered to trail the capabilities of more-advanced smartphones and media tablets. The mobile metrics picture. although many fundamental issues remain to be resolved. can provide targeting input that advertising platforms can use to optimize selection and presentation of ads based on location and other contextual factors. considered by many advertisers and agencies to be a baseline requirement for any major media investment.

The question of how mobile advertising will affect growth in Web advertising highlights the issue of categories. such as Google and Apple. CSPs and advertisers should not overlook handset telephony capabilities for contextual clickto-call and save-contact features in ads. In this competition. and it may provide enough economic value to subsidize the expansion of access to more-advanced handsets and service plans. | G00214660 . developers and publishers need to understand how to incorporate elements such as social features. which will limit its impact on these media by preventing overall spending from being a zero-sum game. namely the "long tail" fragmentation of audiences and usage that makes it difficult for all but a few providers to achieve the scale necessary to attract substantial ad revenue. and competition will center more on Web ads versus in-app ads on these emerging platforms. targeted. Manufacturers other than Apple have also found difficulty gaining a foothold in the ad platform market. For developing markets. Inc. mobile advertising seems to be conveying most of its impact on Web leaders. success will require both strong partnerships and strategic acquisitions to quickly establish key roles in end-to-end solutions that can deliver efficiency and scale to advertisers. Mobile's impact on television will be minimal. we see in-app display taking an early lead because of the industry-leading efforts of Apple. A few CSPs have succeeded in building momentum around mobile advertising efforts. Publishers. pull-style interactions that may accompany a long-term reduction in the share of marketing resources directed at general media advertising. which have successfully exploited the channel. although we expect Web display to ultimately prevail as HTML5 comes of age and delivers advertisers a uniform standard that eliminates the overhead and reach limitations of platform-specific development. Mobile Web will be increasingly difficult to separate from PC-based Web delivery as more content is designed to adapt to different format factors.■ Content providers. making them more efficient through direct response and thus raising their value to advertisers. SMS will remain a good way to distribute marketing messages to mass audiences. although the majority find themselves marginalized by reliance on their flagging portals. although the overall effect of mobile will be to emphasize direct. along with a number of mobile ad networks and platform providers whose timing coincided with the longanticipated growth in the channel. with few exceptions. maps and video into applications that will attract both users and advertisers. content providers and application developers appear to have a similar problem on mobile that has challenged their efforts online. On the opportunity side. CSPs and manufacturers need to be decisive about their intended roles in mobile advertising and acknowledge that. although it will be complementary and often used in concert with those categories. ■ ■ ■ Business Impact: Mobile advertising will siphon most of its revenue from print and outdoor categories. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: 5% to 20% of target audience Maturity: Adolescent Page 98 of 139 Gartner.

A5-size base station box aimed at improving indoor coverage. thereby increasing adoption. | G00214660 Page 99 of 139 . Microsoft. but some technological improvements have been taking place to bring the bill of materials (BOM) low. with communications service providers (CSPs) ramping up their LTE networks. whereas MiFi "talks" Wi-Fi broadband to the consumer and cellular 3G and Long Term Evolution (LTE) to the carrier. Inc. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Still in their early commercial rollout stage. femtocells could be bundled with broadband and/or mobile plans.Sample Vendors: Apple. 2008-2015" Climbing the Slope Femtocells Analysis By: Deborah Kish Definition: A femtocell is a small. Millennial Media. Most femtocell initiatives are still at the trial stage and are aimed mainly at consumer markets. Their advantages include their lower cost than existing microcellular technology. which is essentially a femtocell in reverse. The main drivers for deploying femtocells are poor cellular coverage in rural areas. Velti. and should be more aggressive with integrated solutions such as femtocells embedded in broadband routers or set-top boxes. such as Wi-Fi — femtocells' strongest competitor — and other devices such as MiFi. consumers and enterprise end users are expected to consume more bandwidth via data and multimedia traffic. Similar to picocells. and user density in urban areas where the growing use of cellular data services is putting pressure on the existing base station architecture. The business case for femtocells has been in question due to their cost. A femtocell "talks" cellular to the consumer and broadband backhaul to the carrier. Integrated solutions will increase adoption. as consumers look for ways to cut their monthly living expenses. is likely to attract subscribers. There have been some advances in increasing the number of users per femtocell to up to 32 to target the small and midsize business market. which are simply Wi-Fi routers or cable modems with a femtocell inside. Alternative technology exists. much like a cable modem or wireless router. especially for higher-frequency services such as third-generation (3G) services. so femtocells may be positioned to provide some mobile backhaul relief. femtocells are even smaller cellular base stations that are designed for use in residential or corporate environments that connect to the customer's own broadband connection using an Internet Protocol (IP) link for backhaul. thus driving down cost and eliminating crowded Gartner. Worldwide. Greystripe. CSPs will need to work toward lower or tiered price plans to control demand and may consider including a femtocell as part of high-speed access plans. Google. their physically smaller unit size and their greater network efficiency. CSPs and vendors should work together to develop lower-cost solutions. Alternatively. for example. Femtocells are offered in two form factors: as stand-alone units. Jumptap. However. Yahoo Recommended Reading: "Forecast: Mobile Advertising. femtocells could make mobile communications more pervasive and encourage more users to switch over from fixed to mobile as their main means of communication. and as integrated solutions. as they will decrease the BOM. User Advice: CSPs should offer incentives — offering rebates.

will also increase femtocells' attractiveness. so the impact on consumer markets could be significant. Huawei. Nokia Siemens Networks. as a broadband connection is needed for a femtocell service." which will offer more value per subscriber dollar. From an enterprise perspective. Motorola. Kineto. but actual performance will depend on each vendor's implementation. Inc. ip. compared with the 54 Mbps of a similar 802.access. Improvements in the technology have expanded the throughput and range that can be implemented in 2.desktops. as subscribers may opt to switch to mobile as their main means of communication. as technology advances and femtocells' capacity to increase the number of registered users per femtocell grows. A single spatial stream operating in a 20MHz channel width can achieve 75 Mbps. RadioFrame Networks. Business Impact: Government incentives (such as those in the U.11 standards.11n Analysis By: Tim Zimmerman. Sagemcom. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Airvana. 2010-2015" "Market Insight: Are Mobile Applications and Video Facing a Shortage of Bandwidth?" 802.11n is the latest wireless LAN (WLAN) standard ratified by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). rather than voice over IP (VoIP). 802. although the number of public switched telephone network lines in the enterprise is not decreasing as quickly as VoIP is growing. and Germany) to increase broadband access in rural areas could be advantageous to CSPs offering femtocells.11n in clients may be limited to less than the capacity of the infrastructure by the specific implementation.11n is expected to deliver as much as 600 Mbps of networking performance using four spatial streams. Picochip. Theoretically. and several vendors have introduced three-stream radios that can provide up to 450 Mbps. Like previous 802.11g solution. ZTE Recommended Reading: "Femtocells: The State of the Market" "Emerging Technology Analysis: The Mutual Benefits of Femtocells and LTE" "Magic Quadrant for LTE Network Infrastructure" "Forecast: Mobile Data Traffic and Revenue.S. King Definition: 802. Additionally. developing complementary mobile applications. this could prove to be a driver in this market too. Dual-stream radios providing 300 Mbps at 5GHz using the bonded channel functionality are common in the market. Ubiquisys. the performance of 802. such as "in-house presence alert. such as the number of antennas that are integrated into the device. 802. Worldwide.11a or 802. Fujitsu.4GHz or 5GHz. Michael J. Samsung. | G00214660 . Additionally. Mobile services in these areas are likely to increase.11n provides for a Page 100 of 139 Gartner.

but will also create the need for use case testing. continue to drive the technology deeper into the enterprise. 802. Fernando Elizalde Gartner. because there is no longer a premium to be paid.11n across the access layer. Motorola Solutions Recommended Reading: "Magic Quadrant for Wireless LAN Infrastructure" "Toolkit: Technology Section of a WLAN RFP" "Toolkit: Checklist for Building a Solid WLAN Access Layer" "Critical Components of Any WLAN Site Survey" IPTV Analysis By: Ian Keene. two or three integrated radios within the access point. Vendors will still have points of differentiation that will not only improve wireless network performance in terms of capacity and robustness of communication.11n has been swift. Business Impact: 802. Cisco. including capacity and level of service. | G00214660 Page 101 of 139 . IT organizations that have answered the call to implement wireless for conference rooms and reception areas can tackle the additional hurdles (such as voice over WLAN [VoWLAN]) that are impeding the implementation of 802.11n for all their WLAN requirements. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 5% to 20% of target audience Maturity: Early mainstream Sample Vendors: Aruba Networks.11b and 802.11n.11n should be considered for all wireless LAN scenarios as mainstream adoption of the technology in small. medium or remote office environments. will be determined by the enterprise WLAN requirements. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Since the ratification of the standard. User Advice: IT leaders should consider 802. voice and video applications. HP. or with one. although they continue to be purchased for different architecture considerations — autonomous versus coordinated. because implementation choices will affect data. controller-based versus in the cloud. the market movement to 802. Inc.11n will enable sufficient bandwidth and required capabilities (such as quality of service) for enterprises to consider moving not only data.11g (a/b/g) standards on the market. Many vendors continue to report that more than 70% of new access points being purchased are now 802.11a/b/g components. as well as in higher education and healthcare. We believe that 802.20MHz channel width to enable backward compatibility with 802. as well as the number of spatial streams supported and type of multiple input/multiple output (MIMO) support needed. but also voice and video for many enterprise applications to the WLAN. in comparison with 802.11a. The number of radios within an access point.

2% of worldwide. and are forecast to grow to 74 million by the end of 2014.Definition: Internet Protocol television (IPTV) refers to the network architecture. CSPs cannot engage in effective advertising and marketing campaigns. In the future. and consumer inertia when it comes to changing service providers are issues as well. | G00214660 . The main activity is in China. Rather. For example. and HDTV and poor customer experience can be an issue.S. Recent activity by cable MSOs and satellite broadcasters to integrate IPTV with their traditional broadcast offerings and Internet services (which could include access to OTT TV and video) will lead to more households consuming IPTV than indicated in the above statistics for wireline CSP subscriptions. It is a major area in the field of next-generation telecom architecture and services. However. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: IPTV constitutes the CSP's response to competition from cable and satellite operators. Until recently. not all households are considered the target market for IPTV. noncable. IPTV is doing very well with people switching from the cable operators to Verizon's FiOs and AT&T's U-verse. Perhaps a clearer picture of the current market penetration is that 9. Not all copper loops can offer enough noise-free bandwidth for standard-definition video. whereas early implementations of IPTV used MPEG-2. These include mature pay-TV markets in some countries and competitive bundled offerings from. wireless-based distribution networks may be added to this list. It is becoming clear that IPTV is not a quick. for example. with the potential to be a transformational enabler for CSPs and for those end users who have not been able to receive interactive TV. such as MPEG-4 or VC-1. consumer-fixed broadband households subscribed to IPTV services in 2010. in real time. The inability of some CSPs to procure different and compelling content. it's a value-added service to complete the offering to the household and reduce churn. as the required end-to-end solution is complex. these issues can be overcome.. While this is a small number in terms of household penetration (less than 2% worldwide in 2010. Inc. and the market for over-the-top video on the Internet is growing fast. Now. IPTV services were a TV delivery solution for wireline CSPs over either DSL or FTTH access networks. home devices and networks. cable competitors. in the U.6% in 2014). easy answer to new revenue generation. over managed communications service provider (CSP) networks. There are also technological issues. In most areas..S. IPTV means that CSPs need to manage complex server farms. and forecast only to reach 3. South Korea and Western Europe (aggregated countries). IPTV should be contrasted to over-the-top (OTT) Web streaming video with no quality of service (QoS) issues like buffering delays. or even content similar to current content deals. factors that hold back the rapid and widespread adoption of IPTV are numerous. Page 102 of 139 Gartner. However. plus the newer threat of OTT TV and video services. Cable and satellite operators are now also starting to invest in IPTV with hybrid set-top boxes to deliver an expanded selection of on-demand and interactive TV alongside linear broadcast TV and Internet services. Consumers are not universally convinced about the benefits of premium content. for example. equipment and technologies. Global subscribers of IPTV services delivered by wireline CSPs reached nearly 36 million in 2010. the U. Some CSPs have started to think about IPTV as a service delivery platform and are experimenting with. IPTV is beginning to be used by cable operators and satellite broadcasters as a means of providing additional TV channels to their subscribers. IPTV delivery systems increasingly employ advanced video compression (AVC) technologies. middleware and software platforms used to deliver standard or high-definition television (HDTV) signals.

more cross-platform integration between entertainment. There is the potential for virtually unlimited programming. If CSPs are to drive customer uptake in mature markets. CSPs need to embrace OTT video to complement their offerings and facilitate the search of OTT content. even though the real value. PCs and mobile screens. or superior to existing video services in terms of content. Bundle IPTV with other services at favorable prices. Benefit Rating: Moderate Gartner. They should consider signing partnerships with premium OTT service providers to expose their subscribers to OTT and create a win-win scenario. especially in regions with significant satellite and cable deployment. | G00214660 Page 103 of 139 . Business Impact: The effect of IPTV will be felt primarily in the residential market. The most positive immediate effects for CSPs are loss of churn and the ability to sell more broadband to users. User Advice: Keys to success will be: ■ ■ ■ ■ Avoid "me too" offerings. importantly. Inc. OTT and personal content. Other potential benefits include more integrated search and navigation among broadcast/linear programming. photos and videos. In addition. technology and content (as well as bundling with nonentertainment services) to bring new customers into the pay-TV market. and "killer application. such as stored music. they will need to use the best combination of price.digital advertising and marketing solutions. ondemand. communications and information services is possible. Expect market development to vary by region and by country. The complexity of delivery means that integrated solutions will likely be the fastest and most cost-efficient way of deploying the necessary architecture." from this kind of three-screen strategy is still unproven — as is user willingness to pay a premium for this functionality. CSPs promised to deliver a new viewing experience compared with cable or satellite TV. ease of use and. The upside for service providers is still largely speculative and contingent on the ability to differentiate services and price aggressively. Gain access to compelling content. in addition to the "three-screen strategy" of providing their customers with content and content-related services on TVs. Increased video content in networks will drive capacity upgrades. CSPs will need to evolve new applications. they need to come to market with services that are either equal to those of their competitors at a lower price. thanks to the "switched" nature of the network architecture. usage and user behaviors to differentiate themselves from the established broadcast alternatives. TVs and mobile phones. most cable and satellite offerings have upgraded to deliver what IPTV originally promised to differentiate on. customer service to improve the overall customer experience. This can also be achieved between PCs. Ensure that the network can deliver the bandwidth needed for reliable. convenience. protecting their subscriber base and increasing the user experience and content available. However. In less-saturated markets. high-quality viewing. Cable operators across geographies have been notorious for the inappropriate customer service.

Ericsson. 2008-2014" "Forecast Analysis: IPTV Subscribers and Service Revenue. becomes important. Worldwide. as a means to determine which traffic should be traffic-shaped. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Mobile DPI is seen as a key feature of mobile data switches (for example. ■ ■ Mobile DPI has received a lot of hype in prior years within net neutrality debates. or the evolved packet core network elements of LTE. it is now clear that mobile DPI can be used with Policy and Charging Rules Function (PCRF) for real-time charging with policy Page 104 of 139 Gartner. while proactive methods include the policy decision function in IP Multimedia Subsystems (IMSs). and can also facilitate tiered services. 2008-2014" "Market Share: Leading IPTV Carriers and Their Technology Vendors. Cisco. The packet data server node (PDSN) switch in code division multiple access networks. Technicolor Recommended Reading: "Forecast: IPTV Subscribers and Service Revenue. such as: ■ The gateway general packet radio service (GPRS) support node (GGSN) switch in wideband code division multiple access networks. It can be used effectively to prioritize sessions like emergency calls with subscriber data management systems. 1Q11 Update" "Market Definitions and Methodology Guide: IPTV Service Forecast and Business Models. and perhaps blocking. mobile DPI has now become a mainstream technique to determine how over-the-top traffic is managed. Sharma Definition: Mobile deep packet inspection (DPI) is a technique used to monitor the data traffic in mobile applications. Worldwide.Market Penetration: 5% to 20% of target audience Maturity: Adolescent Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. As a business model evolves in which data services become more important than voice for revenue generation — and in which the network is upgraded to Long Term Evolution (LTE) and becomes Internet Protocol (IP) end-to-end — the ability to perform traffic shaping. Motorola. or part of existing network elements. subscriber awareness and context awareness with market intelligence techniques. However. Part of the evolved packet core of LTE and High-Speed Packet Access Evolution networking elements. Mobile DPI is considered a reactive way to monitor traffic. Mobile DPI can be a stand-alone network element. Worldwide. Inc. and can be a proactive method for communications service providers (CSPs) to achieve session awareness. | G00214660 . GGSN and PDSN). However. Worldwide" Mobile DPI Analysis By: Akshay K. Nokia Siemens Networks.

In January 2011. travel. Sandvine Recommended Reading: "Dataquest Insight: Mobile DPI. music. Inc. Microsoft Windows Marketplace for Mobile and Palm Software Gartner. peer-to-peer traffic. Content-based billing or traffic control could be next. allowing certain carriers to provide tiered services for data plans and usage-based billing. which is still in the market today. mobile DPI can be a way to filter noncritical traffic. with free. and has been a main differentiator for iPhone and iPad success. Business Impact: End-to-end QoS is critical for voice over IP voice quality.5 billion in revenue sharing to developers in 2010. as well as for video quality. User Advice: Enterprises and consumers should appraise their chosen LTE operator for the SLA and quality of service (QoS) promised. books. How Mobile Deep Packet Inspection Became Deep Pocket Inspection" "Emerging Technology Analysis: How CSPs can Cut Costs and Charm Customers with Integrated Policy and Charging Control" Mobile Application Stores Analysis By: Monica Basso Definition: Application stores offer downloadable applications to mobile users via a storefront that is either embedded in the device or found on the Web. App Store generated huge interest and adoption by its device customers. Apple introduced App Store. social networks. App Store generated excitement in the market and forced other handset and OS manufacturers to try reproducing similar dynamics and introduce their own application stores — for example. travel and news. CloudShield. Nokia Ovi Store (now rebranded Nokia Store). Apple paid out over $1. for a range of applications that include entertainment. Allot. Google Android Market. Operators may not openly mention whether mobile DPI is used for traffic shaping or to filter high-volume. In 2008. Research In Motion BlackBerry App World. Private application stores can be created by enterprises for mobile workers. travel and search. | G00214660 Page 105 of 139 .rules.000 apps and 10 billion downloads. Apple announced the achievement of over 350. utilities. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Mobile application stores are targeted to smartphone and media tablet users. entertainment. advertisement-based or charged-for applications. One of the original application stores was offered by GetJar. For mission-critical applications. Application categories in public application stores include games. and can be free or charged-for. ipoque. productivity. Cisco. education. productivity. utilities. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: 20% to 50% of target audience Maturity: Early mainstream Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent.

the enterprise runs the store). giving them access to additional customers in a well-organized ecosystem Gartner. Carriers are also offering upgrades to their own application stores and offerings for their feature phones.." and those offering them need to create some unique selling points that will bring developers to their stores. we expect application stores to accelerate rapidly to the Plateau of Productivity in less than two years. rather than those of their competitors. such as Handmark. individuals can easily access. user reviews. or are recommended to. Orange App Shop and Vodafone 360. and (2) mobile business-toconsumer (B2C) application initiatives to target end customers can leverage application stores as channels for application distribution and discovery by target users. Due to the expectation that the adoption of smartphones and high-end feature phones will increase. Application providers and developers should look for application stores that are associated with popular handsets and that can create a good user experience. and all sides have visibility into the accounting of application sales and an efficient billing system that allows everyone to get paid in a timely manner. and should weigh that against the difficulty of developing and porting applications and the potential popularity of an application.com). with a view to exposing services such as billing.. along with the popularity of applications. such as MobileIron and Zenprise. Inc. Microsoft and Nokia will pursue synergies among the two stores. User Advice: Enterprises should evaluate opportunities that originate from application stores to target end customers with mobile applications (e. Other features of application stores that would benefit developers include advertisement support (like the Google model.. to allow vendors to be "top of deck"). offer white-label solutions to carriers. A number of third parties. Citrix Dazzle works across a range of client and mobile devices. as part of a major partnership that brings Windows Phone 7 on Nokia devices. | G00214660 Page 106 of 139 .g. collect customer feedback and preferences. download and use applications.g. which can advertise and segment customers based on applications Application providers. An increasing number of enterprise portals promote applications that employees should. It is also important to choose application stores that have good distribution in terms of outlets and service from the application development community. enable private application stores. and good billing and reporting features. GetJar and Qualcomm. Public application stores are relevant to enterprises for two reasons: (1) consumerization and personal device models are bringing progressive usage to employees. and provide new services).Store. Other vendors. Business Impact: Mobile application stores are likely to have an impact on: ■ ■ Brands. location and messaging to developers — e. Application stores are a "scale game. An "ecosystem" needs to be created in which developers have the tools to easily write and port applications. Among enterprise-specific application stores. download through either passthrough to the store or local download. and provides a mobile app store for internal deployment (i. to engage them in community-based activities to implement market campaigns.e. rankings and recommendations (as with Amazon.

.S. Google. Active Ethernet PTP can operate at either 1 Gbps or 100 Mbps transmission rates. The former comes in two types: Gigabit PON (GPON. | G00214660 Page 107 of 139 . Japan. Nokia. Orange. China. IEEE 802. for example.Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: 5% to 20% of target audience Maturity: Early mainstream Sample Vendors: Apple.984) and Ethernet PON (EPON. GPON bandwidth is shared by time division modulation and optical splitters. France. Palm. The Revenue Opportunity Beyond the Hype" FTTH Analysis By: Ian Keene Definition: Fiber to the home (FTTH) is deployed as the most radical way (in terms of cost and performance) to facilitate very-high-speed broadband access. Microsoft. reliable and bandwidth-agile technology for broadband access and video services delivery.25 Gbps upstream. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Communications service providers (CSPs) are already deploying significant amounts of FTTH in. EPON at 1 Gbps in each direction and GPON at 2. Australia. FTTH has proved to be the most future-proof. There are two categories of FTTH technology deployed today: point-to-multipoint passive optical networks (PONs) and Active Ethernet point-to-point (PTP).985 specification and the 802.3ah standard from the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. FTTH is gaining momentum in the market. O2. As the cost of FTTH equipment decreases and deployment techniques improve. This high performance can be achieved due to the ultrahigh bandwidth of single-mode optical fibers. Vodafone Recommended Reading: "Marketing Essentials: How to Decide Whether to Start a Mobile Application Store" "Dataquest Insight: Application Stores. Singapore and Portugal. ITU-T G.5 Gbps downstream and 1. Russia. Sweden. South Korea. typically servicing up to 64 users per central office port with a geographical coverage of up to 20 km.3ah). Denmark. The latter is standardized by the International Telecommunication Union's G. Inc. although the high peruser capital expenditure (mainly related to the fibers and construction costs) remains a barrier to even wider deployments — especially as end users are often reluctant to pay more simply for Gartner. Note that 10-Gigabit PON and wavelength division multiplexing PON are not included in this FTTH description. The high cost associated with the technology is particularly related to the civil works involved when installing the fibers. Italy. secure. Broadband PON (BPON) is an older standard but there are few or no new deployments. Norway. Research In Motion. the U. as these two technologies are covered separately.

CSPs will favor nearterm-oriented CDN investments over longer-term FTTH deployments. competition and cultural differences impacting the perceived value of high-bandwidth services. strategic and long-term investment with an expected service life of 30 years. some government stimulus packages have offset this and added to the heterogeneous picture seen across different geographies for FTTH. will extend the lifetime of the copper local loop. This disparity can be attributed to pricing. An example is Verizon's deployment of FTTH as a response to rival cable operators' move to Data-Over-Cable Service Interface Specification 3. Enhancements to VDSL2. Incumbent CSPs are often active in extending the reach of fiber in their access networks.getting additional bandwidth. but also relying on copper for direct access to the majority of their subscriber base. Be aware that while most FTTH business cases are built on expectations of new revenue streams associated with video services. However.0) and AT&T's comparable services for ultra-high-speed broadband. are opting for shorter-term VDSL2 investments instead. In some cases. FTTH deployment depends significantly on the competitive and regulatory situation that an operator faces. in some cases. simply because of the huge investment and effort required to deploy it. deploying fiber to the building where it is economically practical. note that FTTH is moving more slowly toward the Plateau of Productivity than most other technologies. Additionally. User Advice: Wireline CSPs need to consider the implications of continuing investment in DSL technologies versus the large capital expenditure outlay for large-scale FTTH deployments. slow takeup is due to poor marketing and inappropriate service bundles. particularly those with a legacy copper access infrastructure. such as bonding and vectoring.0 (DOCSIS 3. Uptake of higherbandwidth services through the deployment of FTTH varies considerably from country to country. Track initiatives such as Google's plans for a 1 Gbps city network — which applications and services would subscribers pay for? Understand your target subscriber base before deploying FTTH infrastructure. | G00214660 . Note that the popularity of the different types of FTTH varies in different regions. Service offerings and deployments do vary and will continue to vary significantly by country and region. Be sure to incorporate an analysis of the particular regulatory environment concerned and to take into account the impact of relevant government stimulus packages. The speed of adoption of FTTH is linked to CSPs wanting to expand their range of services and to the increasing bandwidth demands from the growing levels of network traffic. it is typically a competitive challenge that triggers FTTH deployments. the position of FTTH on the Hype Cycle should be understood as a "geographic mean" of deployments across different geographies. As such. Consider network sharing to reduce costs. Research the business case for new revenue streams from services that require 100 Mbps and above. The percentage of subscribers per homes passed varies from more than 70% in parts of Asia to less than 20% in Europe as a whole. while municipalities and small local CSPs have Page 108 of 139 Gartner. Many CSPs. Take the estimated reduced operational expenses that typically follow a FTTH rollout into account (due to fewer active nodes and the passive nature of the infrastructure). Inc. FTTH is a large. Successful FTTH deployments will increasingly depend on CSPs also investing in appropriate content delivery networks (CDNs) and. The main explanation for this is that the choice of technology is closely related to the type of CSP — incumbent wireline operators mainly favor PON.

Tellabs. The Third Generation Partnership Project's (3GPP's) Release 7 specification has HSPA+ theoretically achieving 28 Mbps on the downlink and 11 Mbps on the uplink by using downlink 16 quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM). Worldwide. In Release 8. with multicarrier technology. and downlink 2x2 multiple input/multiple output (MIMO) technology. the theoretical HSPA+ downlink peak rate can reach 168 Mbps by using 64 QAM with 2x2 MIMO over 2x20MHz spectrum. the HSPA+ downlink will rise to 42 Mbps by using 64 QAM with 2x2 MIMO. Huawei. 2008-2015. can have a significant impact on the operational expenses of CSPs deploying this technology. The 3GPP requires HSPA+ to be backward-compatible with Release 99 (R99) Gartner. In Release 10. PacketFront. Motorola. GPON deployments are now growing rapidly in China. The EPON variety has been popular in Japan and Asia/ Pacific. HSPA+ works in the same spectrum as current Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) networks. 2008-2015. 2Q11 Update" "Magic Quadrant for Fiber-to-the-Home Equipment" HSPA+ Analysis By: Joy Yang Definition: HSPA+ is also known as HSPA Evolution and Evolved HSPA. along with the passive nature of the infrastructure.tended to favor Active Ethernet PTP. and downlink multipoint transmission. | G00214660 Page 109 of 139 . However. However. Ericsson. ZTE Recommended Reading: "Emerging Technology Analysis: Next-Generation Broadband Access Caters for End-User Bandwidth Appetite" "Forecast Analysis: Carrier Network Infrastructure. Business Impact: The primary business impact will be the availability of higher bandwidth in the residential and small to midsize business markets. uplink 16 QAM. Benefit Rating: Transformational Market Penetration: 5% to 20% of target audience Maturity: Early mainstream Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. uplink dual antenna beamforming and MIMO. The proposed enhancements to HSPA+ in Release 11 will then be discussed. the abbreviation "HSPA" standing for High-Speed Packet Access. the long reach of FTTH systems allows CSPs to operate with fewer active network nodes. Cisco. National alternative operators and multiple system operators considering FTTH also tend to favor PON. Worldwide. 2Q11 Update" "Forecast: Carrier Network Infrastructure. Mitsubishi. while the GPON variety has been popular elsewhere. which. NEC. Inc. including eight-carrier HSDPA. Calix.

Therefore. including voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) and multimedia applications. The recession has made operators conservative about investing in LTE. Inc. there is the possibility of migrating to HSPA+ through a software upgrade. Business Impact: HSPA+ will significantly improve the mobile broadband experience. In May 2010 at the Shanghai Expo.UMTS and with R5 and R6 HSPA networks and devices. A total of 31% of HSPA networks have been upgraded to HSPA+. It offers enhanced bandwidth and has the potential to increase voice capacity for VoIP services. has been deployed in 23 networks. by April 2011. TD-SCDMA is a 3GPP TDD-based third-generation technology. This analysis focuses on the frequency division duplexing (FDD) type of HSPA+. Mobile device vendors should synchronize their HSPA+ handset road maps with operators' road maps for network rollout. and to keep using their existing UMTS and HSPA networks for basic services in areas without HSPA+ coverage. depending on their vendor. because of the high bandwidth promised by HSPA+. Nokia Siemens Networks' demonstration of HSPA+ achieved a peak rate of 112 Mbps using 64 QAM. The backward-compatibility of HSPA+ enables them to provide high-performance mobile broadband services in phases. They should also recognize that HSPA+ is good for the brand image of handset designs incorporating MIMO. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: 5% to 20% of target audience Page 110 of 139 Gartner. there were 123 commercial HSPA+ launches in 65 countries. Although the performance of Long Term Evolution (LTE) is better overall. For existing HSPA operators. such as mobile video. network operators should consider transforming their service and control layers to improve their ability to enable and manage new applications. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: As per Global mobile Suppliers Association statistics. is a software upgrade from basic 3G networks and has sufficient capacity in most cellular operator cell sites. This would protect operators' UMTS and HSPA investments. User Advice: Together with deploying HSPA+. on 5MHz bands HSPA+ is just as spectrally efficient. Dual carrier HSPA+ (DC-HSPA+). as demand arises. which is an upgrade to Time Division Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access (TD-SCDMA). There is also a time division duplexing (TDD) version. such as Vodafone. which represents great progress from the 40+ user devices that were available in April 2010. This makes it possible for operators to make use of their existing UMTS and HSPA investments. which can support 42 Mbps data bandwidth. have chosen HSPA+ as a more cost-efficient technology than LTE. some bandwidth-hungry mobile applications are becoming possible. Also. HSPA+ together with Wi-Fi offload at busy locations is a solution that will delay the deployment of LTE by many operators. | G00214660 . 2x2 MIMO and four bundled wideband code division multiple access (WCDMA) channels (20MHz of spectrum). HSPA+ can accommodate switched voice. Some operators. which has been deployed on a large scale only by China Mobile. which will be a key technology for LTE devices. There are 45 user devices supporting DC-HSPA+. And there are now 144 available HSPA+ user devices.

store and play back content with DVD-like functions. ZTE Recommended Reading: "The Impact of LTE on Corporate Wireless Strategy" "Dataquest Insight: Mobile Operators Must Manage Costs While Nurturing LTE Revenue" "Early Commercial LTE Networks To Reach Sweden. and there are implementations of combined network and set-top DVRs. or selects broadcast channels which are then available to consumers for a set number of days.Maturity: Early mainstream Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. consumers make predetermined decisions as to what they will record. Worldwide by Country. most network DVRs deployed worldwide provide access to programs (already broadcast) for a set number of days. Sierra Wireless. On the other hand. Inc. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: IPTV and cable operators are interested in the technology as a way to provide value-added services to their customer base. Hype Cycle for Wireless Networking Infrastructure. it means fewer overheads and management expenses compared with complex set-top boxes fitted with hard disks. in the other. There are also hybrids: users may have a combination of both versions. the network DVR (and in particular the version which allows consumers to make predetermined decisions) has network storage capacity and quality of service issues that need to be addressed. To date. Norway" "Vendor Rating: Ericsson" "Market Share: Mobile Carrier Network Infrastructure. while content for a network DVR is stored on the service provider's network. Copyright issues are generally Gartner. Worldwide. The main difference is that a standalone DVR stores content on a hard drive within the set-top box. Network DVRs have evolved into two main versions: in one. enabling consumers to record. Despite its attractiveness as a customer retention mechanism and generator of incremental revenue. 2003-2014. | G00214660 Page 111 of 139 . Huawei. the service provider records all video content. Ericsson. 1Q10 Update" "Dataquest Insight: Femtocell Market is Unlikely to Take Off Before 2012" "Emerging Technology Analysis: Long-Term Evolution (LTE). For larger operators. the required network storage will grow to be thousands of terabytes or even petabytes. Nokia Siemens Networks. Qualcomm. 2008" Network DVR Analysis By: Fernando Elizalde Definition: Network digital video recorders (DVRs). have a similar function to their stand-alone DVR/PVR counterparts. 2008" "Forecast: Carrier Network Infrastructure. also known as network personal video recorders (PVRs).

Invitel and Wist in Poland. | G00214660 . Amis in Slovenia and Minsk TV in Belarus. In other cases. Comcast. Free and SFR (formerly Neuf) in France. and results in less capital expenditure. the players in the consumer pay-TV value chain. with the American Court of Appeal declaring network and set-top DVRs to be the same. carriers must be prepared to address these discrepancies with different strategies and innovations. Portugal Telecom (Meo TV). Teo LT in Lithuania (the Gala TV IPTV service). For example. Network DVRs that allow consumers to decide what to record on the operators' servers have seen limited deployment worldwide. joining other operators worldwide that already offer such services. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 5% to 20% of target audience Page 112 of 139 Gartner. Copyright issues that held up full network DVR services in the U. to a lesser degree. Regardless of regional differences.. Imagenio in Spain. and the U. Inc. for large operators. and On Telecoms in Greece (On TV). while in China several cable and IPTV operators offer most channels on demand after the real-time broadcast. the positioning of network DVRs facilitates greater time shifting and a move to an "on-demand" environment.. service providers ask subscribers to authorize them to record shows on their behalf to be stored for a limited time on the operators' servers. but satellite operators will lose out if they fail to emulate network DVR services (by providing hard drives in set-top boxes) to compensate for the lack of a return path in their offerings.S. A network DVR can offer significant benefits over a set-top DVR.S. For consumers. the features most widely deployed are selected time-shifted capabilities. However. operators must have a working relationship with the studios and networks. Supreme Court refusing to hear a final appeal on the matter. among many others — offer this type of network DVR service. European operators — such as Orange. Cablevision launched network DVR services in January 2011. to enabling advertisers to update and replace old ads with more targeted ones. The complexity.agreed beforehand with the broadcast and/or content owners that make a selection of programs available to TV service providers to distribute on their networks.S. Cable and telecommunications companies will benefit from lower capital and operating expenditures. storage capacity and stress on the network — together with copyright issues and the cost of storage — have pushed large operators away from network DVR platforms toward successful deployments of premium set-top DVRs. network DVR for selected shows and. Business Impact: Network DVRs will affect most. such as On TV in Greece. This type of consumer-driven network DVR is implemented most often in small IPTV deployments — for example. BT Vision and TalkTalk TV in the U. Within this type of service. User Advice: Regional implementations will vary because of copyright laws and their interpretation. start-over capabilities. network DVRs can handle the treatment of advertisements — from preventing viewers from skipping ads.K. Time Warner Cable and Verizon FiOS have introduced different versions of this type of network DVR. Iskon in Croatia. have been resolved. set-top box DVRs are better positioned to address consumers' recording decisions. In the U. this solution avoids the issues that surround service provider network capacity and copyright. Teo's Gala TV in Lithuania. if not all.

to become the only carrier running this technology. 2Q09 Update" TD-SCDMA Analysis By: Joy Yang. C-Cor.Maturity: Early mainstream Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. with 220. the only TD-SCDMA communications service provider. TDD LTE is gaining momentum with the support of vendors in the ecosystem. China Mobile's 3G network covered all county-level cities (those without a subregion beneath them). However.000 TD-SCDMA base stations. This is a possible advantage as there is a lot of unused time division duplexing (TDD) spectrum globally. Ericsson Television. | G00214660 Page 113 of 139 . By the end of the year. Worldwide. but not Spectacular" "Leading IPTV Carriers and Their Technology Vendors. Global Consumer Communications Services" "Forecast: IPTV Subscribers and Service Revenue. In 2011. TDD LTE deployment in China is highly reliant on government licenses. Gartner. Espial. China Mobile invested heavily in TD-SCDMA network construction. will adopt TDD LTE in the future. China Mobile will focus on increasing its TD-SCDMA subscribers. Worldwide. Sandy Shen Definition: Time Division-Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access (TD-SCDMA) is China's homegrown third-generation (3G) standard for cellular networks. In 2010. Cisco/Scientific Atlanta. Given China Mobile's financial and management strength. It is very likely that China Mobile. There is little chance of China's government releasing TDD LTE licenses this year or next. as Long Term Evolution (LTE) is expected to leapfrog TD-SCDMA before it reaches the Plateau of Productivity. Inc. These developments are mostly driven by politics. It requires only a single frequency spectrum to provide the uplink and the downlink. It has released a group purchase RFP for 30 million units in 2011. which can support 2. unlike frequency division duplexing (FDD) which requires a pair of frequencies. This leaves limited room for a TD-SCDMA market. TD-SCDMA may have a chance to keep its place in the market. Major TD-SCDMA equipment vendors have claimed that current TD-SCDMA Node Bs will be able to migrate to TDD LTE with software upgrades. As of 1Q11. Microsoft Recommended Reading: "Emerging Technology Analysis: Internet TV. since TD-SCDMA licenses were released just two years ago. 2007-2013" "Dataquest Insight: Worldwide IPTV Growth to Remain Steady. we still believe this technology will become obsolete before reaching maturity.8 Mbps downlink and 384 kbps uplink. It has deployed Time Division-High-Speed Downlink Packet Access (TD-HSDPA). China Mobile had 27 million TD-SCDMA subscribers. and although they give momentum to TD-SCDMA in the short term. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: China Mobile received a TD-SCDMA license on 7 January 2009.

allowing for better performance under various loop length and noise/cross talk scenarios. VDSL2 is seen as a potentially economical last step.993. ZTE Recommended Reading: "Market Trends: China. Inc. Ericsson. Nokia Siemens Networks. Based on discrete multitone line code. 2011" VDSL2 Analysis By: Ian Keene Definition: Very-high-bit-rate DSL 2 (VDSL2) is a DSL standard (G. | G00214660 . Huawei.2) ratified by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) in May 2005.4 kilometers from the DSL access multiplexer [DSLAM]). China Putian. However. CSPs can still use their legacy copper infrastructure. Its achievements include longer reach than VDSL (up to approximately 2. with the capability of handling multiple high-definition television (HDTV) streams. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: While most service providers are still upgrading their networks to ADSL2+. Third-Generation Cellular Networks. Datang Telecom. For communications service providers (CSPs) that do not want to pull fiber all the way to the home. VDSL2 essentially doubles the downstream data rates delivered by VDSL. Benefit Rating: Low Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Adolescent Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. video on demand. the VDSL2 standard specifies eight bandplans or profiles — optimized for different deployment scenarios. VDSL2 allows for operation in spectrum ranging from a minimum of 8MHz up to 30MHz. while being able to provision advanced services — such as IPTV. Its deployment is being spurred selectively in markets that are facing strong competitive threats from cable multisystem operators and broadband cellular services. Theoretically. but also better upstream capability than was possible with earlier DSL flavors. Business Impact: TD-SCDMA could adversely affect China Mobile's performance if it fails to live up to expectations. it can deliver asymmetrical or symmetrical aggregate bandwidth of 200 Mbps on twisted pairs at short distances (up to 100 Mbps downstream and upstream). and quadruples those delivered by ADSL2+.User Advice: Companies should resist signing up for TD-SCDMA data services until performance and indoor coverage improve. A significant feature is that VDSL2 uses Ethernet as a multiplexing technology. and speeds of up to 100 Mbps (symmetric) on short loops. they should look at 3G options from other carriers that operate mature technologies such as wideband code division multiple access (WCDMA) and cdma2000. voice and digital video. VDSL2+ is being positioned for extra-strength triple-play: the delivery of highspeed data. In the meantime. Page 114 of 139 Gartner. interactive gaming and peer-to-peer applications — all of which require not only high bandwidth. Vendors with multiple product lines are less exposed to the risks presented by TD-SCDMA. practical deployments typically deliver 20 Mbps to 50 Mbps services. eliminating asynchronous transfer mode.

fiber to the building or fiber to the curb. that ADSL2+ offers only about 1 Mbps of upstream bandwidth without ADSL2+ channel bonding.The main deployments of VDSL2 will be where CSPs are expanding their fiber networks out of the central office with a fiber to the node (FTTN) architecture.0 cable services. with VDSL2 serving the rest of the copper-based access network outside and in-building. User Advice: ■ CSPs should consider VDSL2 where there is a strong likelihood of intense competition from DOCSIS 3. ■ ■ ■ Business Impact: ■ It will primarily be the residential and small or midsize business markets that will experience significant bandwidth upgrades from VDSL2. | G00214660 Page 115 of 139 . often alongside FTTH deployments. Factor in the expected arrival of Long Term Evolution (LTE) cellular services in some areas from 2011. The best deployment scenarios will be FTTN. CSPs that have weak competition should consider whether ADSL2+ is sufficient to deliver any additional broadband services that are planned — such as IPTV and triple-play services — especially if takeup of HDTV is still sparse. The standard may also have an impact in providing cellular network backhaul.0 cable services or High-Speed Packet Access (HSPA) cellular services. Inc. Building out the fiber infrastructure will be a significant cost factor for carriers in provisioning for VDSL2 services. To ensure extra bandwidth. but deployments are now ramping up in many countries. more deployments are expected. however. Delays in building out the FTTN architecture caused a slow initial build-out of VDSL2. It is deployed in multitenant buildings where fiber is terminated at the building ingress and DSL is used to deliver services to the individual dwellings. ■ ■ Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: 5% to 20% of target audience Maturity: Early mainstream Gartner. carriers may want to consider VDSL2 enhancements. deployments are not expected during the next two to three years and ADSL or ADSL2 will dominate. Keep in mind. in order to benefit from the higher-bandwidth services that VDSL2 can provide over shorter copper loop lengths. Be aware that performance degrades as loop length increases. and increasing CSP interest in deploying high-bandwidth services. This brings the DSLAMs closer to the end user. Several CSPs have deployed VDSL2 in selected areas. With further expansion of FTTN. Vendor revenue from VDSL sales is forecast to match that from ADSL DSLAMs by 2012. particularly where there is competition from Data-Over-Cable Service Interface Specification (DOCSIS) 3. VDSL2 will prove popular in countries where regulators favor the unbundling of FTTH — making the business case for fiber direct to the premises weaker. Where there is less competition.

Generally. Bundled TV. to combat the competition from FTTH services. DOCSIS 3. Providing higher speeds requires further investment in infrastructure and the deployment of fiber closer to the customer premises.Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. ZTE Recommended Reading: "Forecast Analysis: Carrier Network Infrastructure. services have been limited to 50 Mbps. Using Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6) to expand IP address space. Consumer services have been steadily rolled out through 2010 and 2011.0 Cable Analysis By: Ian Keene Definition: A cable modem is a piece of customer premises equipment that modulates data signals over cable operators' hybrid fiber-coaxial infrastructure to deliver broadband Internet access. 2008-2015. Huawei. Europe. Incorporating statistical multiplexing. and are expected to continue as this technology reaches the Plateau of Productivity. and a few cable operators can provide services in excess of 150 Mbps. 2Q11 Update" DOCSIS 3. DOCSIS 3.0-ready. some cable operators are using the technology to leapfrog current ASDL bandwidth offerings from the wireline communications service providers (CSPs). However. the latest version.0. most high-profile cable operators in North America. to give more users a higher peak capacity. Worldwide. It achieves this chiefly by: ■ Bonding four or more 6MHz/8MHz channels for downstream transmission rates of 160 Mbps or more. voice and Internet services. Inc.S. was completed in 2006 and supports up to four times as much bandwidth as DOCSIS 2. 2Q11 Update" "Forecast: Carrier Network Infrastructure.0 deployment started in the U. | G00214660 . together with higher bandwidth access than that provided by the Page 116 of 139 Gartner. DataOver-Cable Service Interface Specification (DOCSIS) is an international standard specified by CableLabs. In addition. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Cable operators worldwide are demanding ultra-highspeed products. and upstream rates of 120 Mbps or more. mobile operators are offering attractive High-Speed Packet Access (HSPA) services and Long Term Evolution (LTE) is on the horizon. such as Verizon's FiOS offerings. 2008-2015.0 requires compatible modular CMTS equipment to enable channel-bonding in both downstream and upstream directions. Asia/Pacific and Japan have upgraded a significant portion of their infrastructure to be DOCSIS 3. Ericsson. so that they can compete effectively against very-high-bit-rate DSL 2 (VDSL2) and fiber to the home (FTTH) services. As a result. Nokia Siemens Networks. 100 Mbps services are expanding. Worldwide. ■ ■ It also employs the Advanced Encryption Standard for more secure connections. ECI Telecom.0. While DOCSIS 3. that defines a protocol for the bidirectional exchange of signal data between a cable modem and a cable modem termination system (CMTS) at the headend.

Motorola.0 equipment has been mainly on the residential consumer market.0 in their portfolios.incumbent CSP. Business Impact: The initial impact of DOCSIS 3. regardless of the nature of the content or the device. will give cable operators more effective competitive fire power against VDSL2. Cisco. enterprise and small or midsize business (SMB) customers might want to consider these solutions for their remote workers or for their offices. including wireless data protocols such as 3G and LTE. excluding arrangements such as telco IPTV distribution architectures that rely on managed networks. We stipulate only that the transmission between the video source and the receiver must traverse public Internet infrastructure. DOCSIS 3. Worldwide. Gartner. The focus of this definition (in contrast to similar profiles such as Internet TV) is on the use of Internet Protocol and infrastructure as the primary transmission channel for streaming video. beyond using out-ofband overlay technologies that provide Ethernet-type bandwidth or direct fiber connections.0-based products has ramped up. cable operators wanting to attract SMBs will now have more solutions to offer targeted segments of the commercial sector. Display devices may include PCs. Higher transmission rates of 100 Mbps and above. 2008-2015. Technicolor Recommended Reading: "Forecast Analysis: Carrier Network Infrastructure.and FTTx-based competitors. 2Q11 Update" Online Video Analysis By: Andrew Frank Definition: Online video describes the delivery of video as a digital data stream over a broadband Internet connection to any device capable of receiving and displaying it. Netgear.0 has now been adopted in all worldwide regions. both wired and wireless.0 will be sufficient to remain competitive with wireline CSPs' broadband offerings that use either VDSL2 or FTTH access networks. DOCSIS 3. Inc. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: 20% to 50% of target audience Maturity: Early mainstream Sample Vendors: Arris. Worldwide. smartphones. User Advice: Volume manufacturing of DOCSIS 3. 2008-2015. It also allows cable operators to provide on-demand IPTV services in addition to their broadcast products. media tablets and TVs that connect directly or indirectly to broadband sources by a variety of methods. has helped to reduce customer churn. 2Q11 Update" "Forecast: Carrier Network Infrastructure. Most cable operators consider that. | G00214660 Page 117 of 139 . While the consumer market is the main target of the operators. in the medium term at least. With the addition of DOCSIS 3.

Netflix now generates nearly 30% of peak Internet traffic in North America. two-way and multipoint interactions ■ ■ We can also divide delivery modes into the following: ■ ■ ■ Live streams On-demand content libraries Programmed. which aims to provide subscribers access to the television content they subscribe to on any device at any location. pre-recorded content delivered on a linear schedule The motivation for taking a high-level. evidenced. which refers to licensed professional content produced for television broadcast (for example. HBO. and that. that the Internet is on the way to becoming the predominant channel for delivering video of any type to any device. recently rolled out its own online video service called HBO Go. All of this growth in online video usage has led to renewed speculation that additional caps or metering on fixed or mobile broadband connections will be needed to bring usage in line with Page 118 of 139 Gartner. both through original productions and curated services. surpassing Showtime or Starz and closing in on HBO. Inc. Web portals and publishers continue to raise investments in online video for the Web and mobile applications. while it may not soon displace broadcasting for mainstream TV content. The success of Apple's iPad in redefining the tablet category around media has also contributed to the rise in online video usage.Online video encompasses several classes of content: ■ Internet TV. Additionally. subject to the licensing restrictions of programmers. including one-way. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: In terms of consumer adoption. corporations have realized they can create acceptable quality videos in-house without hiring an expensive production crew. and easy-to-use video editing and management software are also contributing to the acceleration of this trend. including billing and authentication. content-neutral view of this definition is to capture the assertion. | G00214660 . The popularity of these devices has helped accelerate the embrace of online video by incumbent TV distributors (cable and satellite operators) embracing the TV Everywhere model. At the same time. for example. such as movies and TV shows and online video streams. programming produced for Web distribution) Consumer-generated video content posted on social sites such as YouTube and Facebook Private and corporate communications and training video. online video continues to make inroads and move well beyond its initial phase of preoccupation with short-form. by the fact that Netflix has now used Internet streaming to support 24 million video on demand (VOD) subscriptions. Consumers are increasingly viewing licensed professional content. the integration of video into smartphones and media tablet camera apps. which relies on TV service providers to handle subscriber relationships. according to a recent report by Sandvine. challenged by some. which is also occupying an increasing share of smartphone time. for its part. As a result. other delivery options are likely to be marginalized. The falling costs and rising quality of handheld digital video cameras. user-generated content typical of the early years of YouTube.

User Advice: Beyond media applications. Advertisers should also consider how best to utilize the increased measurability of online video for optimizing campaigns by observing engagement factors such as completion rates and tune-out points. Inc. YouTube Interactive TV Analysis By: Andrew Frank Gartner. online video is creating opportunities for organizations to leverage the power of video for corporate communications. collaboration and marketing initiatives. corporate communications. it doesn't solve major distribution problems such as how to make video discoverable and monetizable in an increasingly crowded field of competition for the attention of fragmented audiences. It will increasingly be an expected part of any online promotional or merchandising presence. Yahoo. and copyright protection and licensing. and ensure that they're suitably enhanced with features that exploit the interactivity and social connections of the online environment. Nonetheless. These factors suggest that the investment needed to bring capacity in line with growing demand will generally be available. and consumers are growing accustomed to watching video on a number of broadband connected devices. Video content providers and investors need to recognize that. Hulu. Brightcove. Communication service providers need to aggressively explore how best to balance public demands for net neutrality and unmetered access to high-quality online video (especially in fixedline contexts) with tiering concepts that ensure escalating usage is equitably compensated by consumers and network peers. Advertisers should insist that TV advertising investments be tailored for online video delivery as well. Comcast. It has also led to predictions of a coming "broadband crisis" that will force many regions to resolve controversial issues affecting investment. as has recently been observed in some mobile data plans. Ooyala.bandwidth capacity and costs. Online video has a global impact on market research. | G00214660 Page 119 of 139 . even if it disrupts some legacy businesses. such as spectrum reallocation and net neutrality regulations. training. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: 20% to 50% of target audience Maturity: Early mainstream Sample Vendors: BBC. especially in political and cause-related domains that resonate with social distribution. demand for online video seems unlikely to reverse its steep growth trend anytime soon. Business Impact: Online video will impact media distribution and advertising. Netflix. although online video can lower barriers and reduce distribution costs.

Definition: Interactive TV can be defined as television programming (that is, licensed video content professionally produced for a home-viewing audience) made interactive by the addition of overlays or other synchronized signals indicating that a viewer response is enabled (for instance, to vote in a poll, play a game, or indicate interest in an advertised product). Because the profile of Interactive TV (hereafter ITV — not to be confused with the U.K. broadcast network) predates the use of Internet as a video delivery platform, the term has conventionally been used to refer to methods of achieving interactivity that do not involve Internet technologies. Thus, a legacy definition would restrict ITV to programming delivered by a platform that enables interactive elements to be bound to a program's video stream and distributed over a terrestrial or multichannel video service — such as cable or satellite TV — and decoded by a set-top box (STB). ("Multichannel" in this context refers to a broadcast-style transmission through which video feeds are assigned to fixed channels that are tuned by a receiver.) The growing use of the Internet to deliver TV programming (sometimes referred to as "over-the-top" or OTT services) to a variety of devices, including connected TVs, blu-ray players, and game consoles, but also PCs, and, increasingly, media tablets, and smartphones, has created a competing vision to the STB-based notion, as these platforms — like the Internet itself — are inherently and richly interactive. OTT has also created ambiguity in the definition of "television" itself. Some consider TV to refer only to broadcast-based transmission. Others take the position that it's the presentation of content on a TV set that's the defining factor. We take the position here that it's the programming that defines a service as "TV." There is also an increasing trend to deliver interactivity synchronized with TV programming to a mobile app, which a user may access on a smartphone or media tablet while watching a broadcast, bypassing the video delivery system altogether. This fissure in definitions creates a challenge in pinpointing the progress of this technology. For the purposes of this analysis, we will consider ITV in the broad sense of binding interactivity to licensed video content and examine the competitive positions. We will use the term "in-band" to refer to multichannel-based services, "OTT" to refer to Internet-based, and "dual-screen" to refer to the coviewing approach. Similarly, we'll use the term "multichannel video programming distributor" (MVPD) to refer to pay TV distributors (cable, satellite, or IPTV) that operate in-band services, and online video distributor (OVD) to refer to TV distributors that operate OTT services. These follow the U.S. FCC's formal definitions of these terms. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: MVPDs have been trying for more than 20 years to produce an Interactive TV platform that is economically viable and appealing to consumers, yet that goal remains elusive. Meanwhile, the Internet has grown into a credible rival to channel-based video delivery systems, and significantly raised expectations for the kinds of interactive experiences marketers and consumers might share. This contrast has produced a complex, high-stakes battle for the future of interactivity on television. It also makes ITV an erratic and slow-moving technology on the cycle.

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For advertisers and marketers, the high value of interactivity is twofold: it is a direct-response mechanism that can lead directly to a sale (often referred to as t-commerce), and it has been proven to significantly increase brand recall, purchase intent and other metrics of high importance to brand marketers. These factors have contributed to the growth of Internet advertising into the secondlargest ad medium behind television, although television still has a significant lead overall. Many of the difficulties MVPDs have had with ITV can be traced to the high cost of replacing consumer premises equipment, combined with 10-year-old decisions to deploy digital STBs whose cost constraints made them nearly obsolete at the time of their deployment (compared with the capabilities of contemporary PCs). In 2001, as the first Internet bubble was bursting and MVPDs were transitioning to digital cable and satellite services, the threat that broadband Internet would soon re-emerge to mount a credible challenge to multichannel digital TV technologies for delivery of even high-definition TV programming seemed remote to most service providers, who were understandably more focused on near-term economic trade-offs. In the intervening period the capabilities of PCs and Internet connections followed Moore's law and roughly doubled every 18 months, and are now supplemented by smartphones and media tablets whose capabilities far exceed these legacy digital STBs. Even when STB upgrades are deployed, MVPDs are generally reluctant to add disruptive features, such as open broadband connectivity and support for Internet standards, because this would undermine their control and ability to monetize ITV features. MVPDs have often clashed with broadcasters over control of interactive video platforms, and this continues to motivate MVPDs to design platforms that isolate interactions from the open Internet. Despite these restrictions, the strategy of subsidizing "free" STBs bundled with service has effectively kept competing consumer electronics products from gaining much traction in the market. The U.S. cable industry has tried to make the most of its base of legacy STBs by developing and deploying Enhanced TV Binary Interchange Format (EBIF), an in-band CableLabs standard for basic interactivity which is currently installed on about 25 million U.S. STBs. In early 2010, Canoe Ventures, a joint venture of the six largest U.S. cable companies, launched a request-for-information (RFI) product that leverages EBIF to provide advertisers with a text overlay to a TV commercial to which viewers can respond with their remotes. Although no results have been published, indications are that uptake has been slow. In Europe and South Korea, Digital Video Broadcasting Multimedia Home Platform (DVB-MHP) is available over the air on at least 20 million STBs, often with a telephone-service-based return path (wired or wireless), while in the U.K., MHEG-5 has been deployed by Freeview (a digital terrestrial TV service reaching 70% of U.K. households) and Freesat (a joint satellite venture between the BBC and ITV), and OpenTV has been deployed by Sky TV satellite service. These deployments offer interactivity, but no return path. To address this, BBC, ITV, Channel 4 and Channel 5 are collaborating on a project called YouView (formerly Project Canvas), which is planning to launch early in 2012. These developments suggest that, for these regions, ITV is becoming a reality with less contention than seen in the U.S. Another challenge to ITV has been the difficulty of designing compelling interactions based on a standard remote control pointed at a screen about 10 feet away (this is sometimes called the "10-

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foot interface problem"). As smartphones and media tablets find their way into homes, many marketers and developers have latched onto the dual-screen notion that interacting with an application on a smartphone or tablet that could be synchronized with televised programming content might be a more compelling model for ITV, while providing a way around both the isolation of STBs and fragmentation of OTT platforms. This approach is disruptive to both the MVPD model for ITV and for OTT models from OVDs and connected TV manufacturers. Gartner's assessment of the progress and impact of ITV is an average of competing models. Standards such as EBIF are fundamentally challenged by the rising global trend of Internet TV consumption, including mobile devices and connected TVs themselves, that bypass closed STBs. These alternate TV consumption devices, which will tend to support interactivity through native apps or HTML5 programming techniques, are unlikely to recognize EBIF triggers, which will limit the ubiquity of EBIF or any other MVPD standard that is not compatible with broadband connected devices. And the dual-screen approach shows that ITV can also be achieved through ensemble interaction techniques that don't rely on any sort of in-band signaling. So, although ITV continues to make progress and is increasingly spurred by high-stakes competition, the outcome remains murky and still requires programmers to hedge their bets with multiple approaches. User Advice:

Service providers need to align with their regional industry groups and negotiate collectively for interoperable standards that allow their network platforms (cable, satellite, IPTV, broadcast and online video) to remain competitive and economical to develop for. Service providers also need to focus on multiscreen strategies (TV, PC and mobile) for service bundling and integration. However, service providers must be wary of standards that are incompatible with Internet protocols. Broadcasters and content providers should focus on how to incorporate standards-based interactivity into programming to bring more value to audiences and sponsors. Manufacturers should resist the temptation to create differentiation on the level of standards implementations that would undermine interoperability, and should seek advantage on the application level instead (such as better support for Internet TV and video device controls). Advertisers and ad agencies need to press for control over metrics and reporting standards, and work to ensure full transparency and openness in interactive TV advertising markets. All commercial parties should focus in the near term on partnerships and alliances in the newly forming "ecosystem" for interactive TV services, and hedge their bets on any single technology solution. Regulators should focus on ensuring fair competition among service providers and standards bodies, and be aware that technology is creating media environments in which legacy regulations are often inapplicable or irrelevant.

Business Impact: TV service providers — MVPDs and OVDs — have a substantial opportunity to increase their revenue share from advertisers and direct marketers by offering interactive features that can support transactions and consumer engagement. Consumer electronics, middleware and STB vendors face potentially decisive competition over where to strike the right balance between
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Ericsson Television. Videoconferencing. Invidi. MPEG-4 can deliver bit rate savings of 50% with the same quality as MPEG-2. for which DVR-based ad skipping and Internet advertising spending shifts are significant disruptive trends. which were designated as the standard ISO/IEC 14496 for a group of audio and video coding formats and related technologies. OpenTV. Canoe Ventures. Internet Protocol television (IPTV). TV networks and advertisers. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: 5% to 20% of target audience Maturity: Adolescent Sample Vendors: Apple. Digital broadcast TV. TiVo. Google. BBC. Nielsen.263 or MPEG-4 Part 2). to shore up the value of the TV medium to advertisers. The H. It also aims to be flexible enough to enable the standard to be applied to a wide variety of applications on a variety of networks and systems. which coordinates standards for telecommunications on behalf of the ITU. Inc. rely on interactive features. Microsoft. MPEG-4 AVC aims to provide good video quality at significantly lower bit rates (half or less of the bit rates of MPEG-2. along with more-dynamic targeting. Yahoo Recommended Reading: "New Television Meets Context-Aware Computing" "A Scenario for the Future of Television in the Cloud" MPEG-4 Advanced Video Coding Analysis By: Ian Keene Definition: MPEG-4 Part 10. or MPEG-4 Advanced Video Coding (AVC). Ensequence. Intel. is the standard defined by the Moving Picture Experts Group (MPEG) for compressing audio and visual data for: ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Internet over-the-top (OTT) streaming video.264 for video compression issued by the International Telecommunication Union's (ITU's) Telecommunication Standardization Sector (ITU-T). which would make it impracticable or too expensive to deploy. It is part of the larger collection of MPEG specifications introduced in late 1998.264 and MPEG-4 Part 10 standards are jointly maintained so that they have identical technical content. Gartner. Rovi. | G00214660 Page 123 of 139 . H. Cable and satellite standard definition/high definition (SD/HD) linear broadcast. CD/DVD distribution.features and cost. without an increase in the complexity of design. MPEG-4 AVC is technically identical to the standard known as H.

Satellite and cable operators have been slower to make the transition from MPEG-2 due to the cost of replacing legacy equipment. the ability to encode mixed media data (video. receivers. it is expensive to overhaul their entire customer base with MPEG-4-compatible STBs. | G00214660 . MPEG-4 is becoming essential as the number of broadcast HDTV channels increase. Programmers and satellite service providers are adopting advanced compression technologies to save transponder capacity on the satellites they use to transmit their programming to customers nationally and globally. and the overall strategy for promoting HDTV should dictate how aggressive cable operators need to be in transitioning STBs that are MPEG-4-enabled. Something similar applies to those considering 3D TV services. which are embedded in encoders. Furthermore. This will enable cost savings due to lower bandwidth and capacity Page 124 of 139 Gartner. It is used by OTT services. which decodes alternate left and right frames in the video stream. error resilience for robust transmissions and the ability to interact with the audio-visual scene generated at the receiver. decoders. the penetration of MPEG-4 in STBs increases.264 technology has been adopted in many countries by digital terrestrial broadcasters and service provider networks for the transmission of HDTV content over satellite. and their attempts to pursue additional revenue. Inc. cable and wireline DSL/FTTH IPTV systems. particularly the large installed base of customer premises equipment (CPE). Any service provider using legacy MPEG-2 is increasingly exposed to competitors. Cable and satellite service providers must weigh the costs and operational effects of implementing MPEG-4 AVC in terms of operational efficiency improvements and revenue generation. While they are moving more aggressively toward adopting MPEG-4. Business Impact: The implementation of advanced video encoding technologies will be crucial to the success of network service providers' operational efficiency for video. This includes calculations for STB swap-outs. Dual MPEG-2/4 codec cable STBs are a solution for some. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: MPEG-4 AVC/H. User Advice: Cable and satellite service providers need to align their business plans with their technology evolution plans with regard to MPEG-4 AVC. Many cable operators still have a significant installed base of MPEG-2-based headend encoders and STBs. It is the codec of choice for enterprise video applications. IPTV and OTT video will drive the transition to more-advanced codecs that will enable a multiscreen strategy. such as YouTube. Wireline communications service provider (CSPs) have been quick to embrace MPEG-4 for IPTV services. set-top boxes (STBs) and other devices. The key features of the technology. include significantly improved coding efficiencies (which reduce the amount of bandwidth required for video transmissions). As more customers upgrade to an HDTV service tier. It is also used for cellular IPTV and is embedded in 3G smartphones. speech). MPEG-4 is part of the Blu-ray Disc format of the Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA). audio. The technology is a key enabler of HDTV. integration of linear broadcast.MPEG-4 MVC is an extension of MPEG-4 AVC used for 3D TV.

Worldwide. 2008-2015. supervision and survivability (including sub-50 millisecond protection switching). However. The underlying principles of OTNs OAM capabilities are inherited from SDH/SONET. network connections established using time division multiplexing (TDM) technology. Ericsson-Tandberg Television. as wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) technologies entered communications service provider (CSP) networks it became apparent that establishing operations. as well as new revenue from HDTV content. Gartner.e. and emerging packet-oriented transport solutions such as Multiprotocol Label Switching Transport Profile (MPLS-TP). Motorola. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: 20% to 50% of target audience Maturity: Mature mainstream Sample Vendors: Cisco. Harmonic. Worldwide. GMPLS/ ASON functionality can be applied to different types of transport network. The technology is important for the contribution and distribution of content.709 standard to provide a mechanism that allows CSPs to control diverse traffic types including both circuits in the TDM layer (at up to 100 Gbps) and wavelengths in the WDM layer.requirements. administrations and management (OAM) capabilities for the "wavelengths" in the "WDM layer" similar to the features defined by SDH/SONET for the "TDM layer" would be necessary to manage the ever-increasing wavelength counts in CSP networks. 2Q11 Update" "Forecast: Carrier Network Infrastructure. Technicolor Recommended Reading: "Forecast Analysis: Carrier Network Infrastructure. Inc. | G00214660 Page 125 of 139 . Harris. management. the TDM technology had matured and 40 Gbps and 100 Gbps per-channel transport was being developed. At the same time. Envivio. 2008-2015. SDH/SONET was successful because it offered a standards-based approach to implementing multiplexing." i. transport.. such as SDH/SONET. Consequently the ITU defined the Optical Transport Network (OTN) G. 2Q11 Update" OTN and GMPLS/ASON Analysis By: Peter Kjeldsen Definition: The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) defined the now incumbent Synchronous Digital Hierarchy/Synchronous Optical Network (SDH/SONET) standards to establish a digital hierarchy of "circuits. especially in video-on-demand distribution systems. The Internet Engineering Task Force's Generalized Multiprotocol Label Switching (GMPLS) standard and the ITU's Automatically Switched Optical Network (ASON) standard enable CSPs to automate their transport networks by means of an intelligent control plane and associated signaling.

and the larger the amount of traffic. network management-controlled manual procedures with decentralized. OTN and GMPLS/ ASON is changing its character away from being a key differentiator toward becoming merely "table stakes" — especially among the largest CSPs. the easier it is to justify this kind of investment. signaling-controlled automated ones. by increasing or decreasing capacity in near real-time. ZTE Entering the Plateau Next-Generation Voice Analysis By: Deborah Kish Definition: Next-generation voice refers to the network architecture. Fujitsu. so this relatively monotonous growth scenario does not utilize the full flexibility offered by OTN and GMPLS/ASON technology — which easily could cater for more dynamic provisioning scenarios. User Advice: Investments in OTN and GMPLS/ASON must be justified by operational savings from the automation of tasks that previously were manual or semi-manual. is central to this offer in the business segment. it is rare that they need to take bandwidth away. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 20% to 50% of target audience Maturity: Mature mainstream Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. but are speeding up as CSPs upgrade and automate their transport networks to cost-effectively support bandwidth-hungry video services and mobile data. equipment and protocols needed to replace the traditional time division multiplexing public switched telephone network (PSTN) with voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP)." While CSPs need to rapidly add bandwidth to their infrastructure. Inc. Ericsson. | G00214660 . As the technology has matured and the cost of implementing it has come down. although it started as a technology only for the largest CSPs. In mobile networks. Business Impact: OTN and GMPLS/ASON enable service providers to optimize network operations by replacing centralized.Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Adoption of OTN and GMPLS/ASON started slowly. Nokia Siemens Networks. it has now also found its way into smaller networks as the wavelength count in these networks is increasing beyond the "automation threshold. Ciena. An additional provein factor is the ability to handle complex (and even malicious) failure scenarios by means of sophisticated protection schemes. Huawei. where the ability to reallocate bandwidth as needed. and to provide enhanced voice functions and applications in both fixed and mobile networks. OTN and GMPLS/ASON technology is adopted primarily by CSPs that need to automate their transport networks. Examples of such dynamic requirements have appeared — one such example being AT&T's Optical Mesh Service. the architectural design for Page 126 of 139 Gartner. The larger the network.

such as Session Initiation Protocol. The cost to provide mobile voice is relatively low. Although. Vendors and CSPs should participate in initiatives such as Rich Communication Suite and should work with software and handset vendors to improve interoperability and accelerate time to market. VoIP and VoLTE will increase competition between service providers. while simultaneously innovating toward provisioning new voiceenabled service bundles. Lower price points due to increasing competition and lower production costs will encourage residential users and enterprises to adopt services at an increased rate. Government initiatives will encourage service providers to increase their reach and upgrade their networks. their corporate customers and residential users. Nokia Siemens Networks. so CSPs have to reduce the cost of delivering them. Huawei. but the ROI is considerably higher. as well as the GSMA's voice over Long Term Evolution (LTE) — VoLTE — initiative. because of their low ROI. NEC. as well as cable operators offering voice services. CSPs are under pressure to maintain good-quality voice services. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Approaches to next-generation voice are helping CSPs to reduce the cost of delivering telephony services. Inc. Fixed voice revenue still running on the PSTN will continue to be the "cash cow" that will help pay for investments in advanced technology and the applications that will help differentiate CSPs. Motorola. Users should evaluate advanced features accurately. Metaswitch Networks. ignoring technology hype while acknowledging true added value and understanding the key benefits. These approaches allow mobile communications service providers (CSPs) to deploy telephony in an efficient way. | G00214660 Page 127 of 139 . Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: More than 50% of target audience Maturity: Mature mainstream Sample Vendors: Alcatel-Lucent. ZTE Recommended Reading: "Magic Quadrant for Softswitch Architecture" Gartner. IMS in the core will complement LTE when mobile next-generation voice becomes available. while moving to upgrade their networks to accommodate broadband-based multimedia services. Genband. voice services don't lead to revenue growth. Business Impact: The impact of next-generation voice is widespread and will affect CSPs. and should encourage the appearance of a wide range of new Web application providers. they do provide a steady income stream. and vendors of next-generation voice technology. using VoIP rather than IMS architecture for multiservice delivery. Cisco. Italtel.next-generation voice includes an IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) core. so waiting out the long life cycles of traditional equipment in select parts of the networks may be a good short-term solution (no longer than two years). so are working toward achieving high-definition voice services. Ericsson. BroadSoft. such as Google and Skype. so it is an important revenue stream for future infrastructure investments. Investigate the benefits of telephony emulation. User Advice: Continue to investigate and take advantage of the benefits of open and standardized technology architectures with interoperable interfaces. particularly in fixed networks.

Benefit Rating: Moderate Page 128 of 139 Gartner. | G00214660 . mainly in ring configurations. ROADMs enable CSPs to achieve "bit-wise economies of scale" through faster and more flexible provisioning in their WDM networks. Worldwide. due to enhanced flexibility and efficiency in the use of network wavelengths. ensuring that investment decisions are made from an appropriate total cost of ownership point of view."Forecast: Carrier Network Infrastructure. bandwidth-hungry networks that are being upgraded to cater for mobile data and video services. ROADMs are a trade-off between capital expenditure (capex) and operating expenditure (opex). In Gartner's market statistics for optical transport systems. with protection switching and easy provisioning being the major benefits. 2Q11 Update" "Forecast Analysis: Carrier Network Infrastructure. 2008-2015. 2008-2015. ■ ■ Business Impact: By automating wavelength handling. Equipment vendors should focus their ROADM marketing efforts on midsize and large CSPs and on those that are early adopters of bandwidth drivers — such as fiber to the home and Long Term Evolution. especially in large. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: ROADM equipment has been deployed for several years. ROADMs enable communications service providers (CSPs) to automate the way individual wavelengths of WDM systems are routed through their networks. 2Q11 Update" "Magic Quadrant for LTE Network Infrastructure" ROADMs Analysis By: Peter Kjeldsen Definition: Reconfigurable optical add/drop multiplexers (ROADMs) are the wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) equivalent of the add/drop multiplexing that has been used in the Synchronous Digital Hierarchy (SDH) and Synchronous Optical Network (SONET) markets for more than a decade. Many CSPs have already invested in this technology. which includes all types of node equipment that handle traffic in the optical domain without relying on client-layer functions (such as those provided by SDH/ SONET). The OXE segment also includes optical switches and optical cross-connects. Smaller CSPs are likely to find that they will not have the same economic incentives to invest in ROADMs as larger CSPs. Worldwide. where a capex premium is paid (relative to less-dynamic WDM solutions) to save subsequently on opex. simply because of the lower wavelength count in their networks. User Advice: ■ Be sure to weigh the opex advantage offered by ROADMs against their intrinsic capex premium. Inc. ROADMs are included in the optical exchange equipment (OXE) segment.

a key mobile TV platform provider. In particular. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: In the past year. it had 13 million subscribers globally. in addition to the UEFA Super Cup. including rights for broadcasts via Sky Mobile TV. satellite rights for 129 live UEFA Champions League matches per year. Apalya Technologies. Alcatel-Lucent. Cricket World Cup and Indian Premier League cricket matches in 1H11 became key drivers of mobile TV streaming services.Market Penetration: 20% to 50% of target audience Maturity: Mature mainstream Sample Vendors: Adva Optical Networking. other catch-up TV services have been extended to iOS platforms. The average viewing time on some sports apps on tablets is twice as much as on smartphones.K. Cisco. Vodacom has partnered with MultiChoice to offer a mobile TV streaming service on generation twoand-a-half and 3G devices in Tanzania. To honor existing carriage agreements. Nokia Siemens Networks Mobile TV Streaming Analysis By: Shalini Verma Definition: Mobile TV streaming is the streaming of live TV from cellular networks to mobile and portable handsets using narrowcasting or multicasting technology. Mobile apps are largely offered free to subscribers of TV program packages. Time Warner Cable and Cablevision Systems offer live TV iPad apps only within the subscriber's home over Wi-Fi. In emerging markets. which had the mobile rights for the matches. In April 2011. In India. In India.. Verizon is extending its FiOS TV broadcasting service to the iPad to be watched at home by its TV subscribers. driven by Gartner. Telenor has partnered with Aspiro TV to offer new mobile TV apps on Android and iOS devices in the Nordic countries. Broadcasters are also releasing optimized mobile TV apps for the key mobile platforms.K. continues to build on its success in terms of content partnerships and subscribers. In mature markets. CSPs want to use mobile TV to gain a competitive advantage. In this agreement. Sky also gained cross-platform rights. Inc. the satellite broadcaster BSkyB signed a new multiyear agreement with the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) for U. MobiTV. added more than a million new subscribers to its mobile TV services in the first five months of 2011. traditional mobile TV streaming services are being used to attract subscribers. Telstra won the 2012 to 2016 rights for broadcasting every Australian Football League match live on its mobile network. In September 2010. In Africa. communications service providers (CSPs) and media companies are focused on extending their TV broadcasting services via apps on the iOS. Huawei. the tablet is emerging as a major device of choice for mobile TV streaming. ECI Telecom. in addition to the BBC's iPlayer. Fujitsu. | G00214660 Page 129 of 139 . the industry focus has been mainly on securing broadcast rights for live sporting events. ESPN has extended its TV Everywhere service to the iOS platform. Android and BlackBerry platforms. Live streaming of the 2010 FIFA World Cup helped to popularize mobile TV streaming in emerging markets. In the U. CSPs are using mobile TV as bait to recruit subscribers to their newly launched thirdgeneration (3G) services.

Worldwide. Mobile TV streaming will also affect the business of content providers and broadcasters as they make mobile TV streaming a core part of their content strategy. | G00214660 . which can offer improvements in video experience of 40% to 70%. as well as bundling streaming with other data services. YouTube on HTML5-compliant mobile browsers has a rich experience. CSPs use various pricing models. In June 2010. Broadcasters and CSPs need to invest in video analytics to understand the mobile TV viewing habits of their users. Content rights also come into play. it will help CSPs to manage bandwidth utilization more effectively. As HTML5 becomes more pervasive. they can use video optimization solutions. the industry will start to evaluate it for mobile TV streaming. and the number of videos streamed on mobile devices increased by 160% year on year. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 20% to 50% of target audience Maturity: Early mainstream Sample Vendors: MobiTV.the extension of the service on multiple mobile platforms such as iOS. 2008-2015" Off the Hype Cycle Mobile TV Broadcasting Analysis By: Shalini Verma Page 130 of 139 Gartner. There is no significant change in pricing from last year. YouTube Recommended Reading: "Forecast: Mobile Application Stores. With the introduction of tiered pricing for mobile broadband. the increased usage of mobile TV streaming on Wi-Fi will adversely affect CSPs' revenue from mobile TV streaming services. In addition. While HTML5 will become a key delivery option for mobile TV streaming. In the interim. including free and subscription-based models. On the upside. Android and BlackBerry. YouTube's app's presence on iOS. broadcasters that rely on digital rights management will not find HTML5 suitable for their business model. YouTube had 100 million mobile views per day. Inc. Android and BlackBerry devices translates into a massive installed base. They will have to look again at their business model and content rights if they want to use HTML5. Long Term Evolution (LTE) network rollout will be a key driver of mobile TV streaming. MobiTV has found that Android devices have higher TV viewing attach rates (the ratio of video clips viewed per device) and conversion rates from free trials to paid subscriptions than iOS and BlackBerry devices. Business Impact: Mobile TV streaming has an impact on mobile data services in terms of mobile data traffic usage and mobile data revenue. User Advice: CSPs offering TV and video streaming services need to consider viewing patterns and the growth of mobile TV and video streaming traffic in their LTE infrastructure rollout planning. once capable devices are available.

technology providers have been releasing external receivers as accessories. CSPs have continued the trend of shutting down their mobile TV broadcasting services. Qualcomm suspended new sales of the service to consumers and in March 2011 the FLO TV service was discontinued. Terrestrial Digital Multimedia Broadcasting (T-DMB) and MediaFLO. Gartner. announced the launch of a Nokia mobile headset that acts as a DVB-H receiver for its Symbian devices. Dutch operator KPN Telecom is also terminating its DVB-H mobile TV service. though the project has been delayed beyond the second half of 2011 because of a lack of consensus on the technology to go with. which led to a shortage of devices supporting the technology. | G00214660 Page 131 of 139 . broadcasters are keen to launch mobile TV broadcasting services and as many as 12 broadcasters and television content owners there have created the joint venture Open Mobile Video Coalition (OMVC). Notably. a few Android smartphones and media tablets were launched with T-DMB TV tuners in Korea. it was impossible for AT&T. Another reason for a lackluster year for mobile TV broadcasting was that very few smartphones released onto the market had native support for mobile TV broadcasting technologies. Members have pooled their broadcasting spectrum and are planning to launch a mobile TV service based on the Advanced Television Systems Committee-Mobile/Handheld (ATSC-M/H) standard by the end of 2011. mobile apps for TV streaming were the key focus areas for media companies and communications service providers (CSPs).Definition: The broadcasting of digital TV programs to mobile handsets and media tablets using technologies such as Digital Video Broadcasting — Handheld (DVB-H). Virgin Mobile and broadcast infrastructure and service provider TDF have planned to launch a mobile TV broadcasting service. Nokia. which receives a DVB-H signal and converts it into a Wi-Fi signal for Wi-Fi-enabled devices. these services were launched alongside mobile TV streaming services. which helped save lives. Mobile TV broadcasting was put to good use during Japan's recent calamity. In France. The service costs 36 rand per month. some countries are still seeing the launch of mobile TV broadcasting services. though the broadcaster sees the service as only delivering a ROI in the long term. the reason given was that DVB-H did not develop into a global standard for mobile TV broadcasting. broadcaster MultiChoice continued to extend its DVB-H mobile service DStv into new countries: launching in South Africa during November 2010. and Windows and iOS devices. for example. To extend mobile TV broadcasting onto the newer smartphones. In the U. which is still trying to push DVB-H. With the industry focus on mobile apps. In Africa. Japan's Integrated Services Digital Broadcasting-Terrestrial (ISDB-T)-based mobile TV was able to transmit emergency warnings. MultiChoice also launched a separate mobile TV decoder. Inc. to justify the premium monthly price of $10 to $15 for FLO TV (MediaFlo). The service will be made available on a variety of consumer products such as in-vehicle displays and netbooks.S. when the national broadcaster NHK gave 24/7 coverage of the disaster across multiple screens. allowing users to view One-Seg without the need to keep the One-Seg TV tuner in "close" proximity. including One-Seg — the country's free mobile digital TV broadcast system. such as laptops. MobielTV. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: 2010 continued to be an unexciting year for mobile TV broadcasting. which is fighting an uphill battle against TV streaming and mobile apps for video on demand. in June 2011. SoftBank made a new iPhone app available. During 2010. the Drifta. During the past year. However. In October 2010..

rights management. with the objective of improving the in-home and on-the-go TV viewing experience. syndication and advertising. Worldwide. Argentina. It does have opportunities on other device form factors. DSL or fiber-to-the-x connections using specialized end-user customer premises Page 132 of 139 Gartner. Texas Instruments Recommended Reading: "Forecast: Mobile Application Stores. Benefit Rating: Low Market Penetration: 5% to 20% of target audience Maturity: Mature mainstream Sample Vendors: DiBcom. They should also review the current business models to use a freemium model — keeping basic content free and charging for premium content (for example. Gartner expects mobile TV broadcasting services to be restricted to specific markets. and target the segments where opportunities for mobile broadcasting TV are present. Egypt and China. CSPs and device vendors should concentrate their efforts on specific geographic pockets. Telegent Systems.As in the previous year. Peru. LG. Mobile TV broadcasting will be more suitable for live events that have significance for the target audience. Russia. such as media tablets and in-car systems. Thailand. They should build technologies such as 3D and high-definition (HD) optimization. Recent demand for analog TV receivers is indicative of some latent demand in emerging markets. upcoming 3D or HD TV optimization content). User Advice: ■ Device vendors should explore alternative portable form factors for delivering mobile TV broadcasting. | G00214660 . analog TV receivers continued to see a strong demand from emerging markets such Brazil. Samsung. Content providers should explore delivering content related to major events beyond sports. and those that allow users to perform gestures to turn on the device — or flick the device to switch to another device. on smartphones this technology will continue to be upstaged by mobile apps for mobile TV streaming and time-shifting and Web-based video services. Free-to-air service supported by ads continues to be more popular than monthly subscription. but price and availability of channels will be the key success criteria. ■ ■ ■ Business Impact: Mobile TV broadcasting will affect all areas of video production. Government agencies should ensure that the emergency warning system attached to mobile TV broadcasting systems is available for use when required. Nigeria. 2008-2015" Residential VoIP Analysis By: Deborah Kish Definition: Residential voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) is a telephone service delivered via broadband cable. However. Inc.

the portability and mobility of applications will increase. a broadband modem and associated headend/central-office broadband access platforms. These platforms include either Internet Protocol (IP) DSL access multiplexers for telcos or cable modem termination systems for cable operators. Mobile substitution has been ongoing for several years. offering greater simplicity and convenience to consumers. multiport routers and Wi-Fi access points or femtocells. voice-to-text or voice-to-email services. or a best-effort service. Voice traffic has substantially shifted to mobile connections or to peer-to-peer VoIP calling. including "over the top" competitors such as Google and Skype with services beyond voice. and increasing productivity and the perceived value of the bundle. Gartner. | G00214660 Page 133 of 139 . of digital video services as well. a voice service is included in lowcost and bundled service plans as a double play with broadband. voice mail on PCs and televisions. we do not expect an uptake of IP phones but of base station phones. It is. Caller ID on televisions. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Residential VoIP has been available for almost a decade and is becoming more widely adopted. so wired phone lines have become less relevant for end users. An example of this would be developing software pricing models in which consumers can download additional features if they pay for the license. We do not define PC-to-PC-based calling services. as integrated portals are emerging to manage all services from a single location. limiting the location of a single terminal. Look for variations of CPE. For residential users. therefore. and to Google from fixed connections. Residential VoIP can be a managed service that provides quality of service (QoS). voice-signaling adaptors. single voice mailboxes for mobile and fixed lines. which are best-effort "over the Internet" services. moving much closer to the Plateau of Productivity. As technology platforms become more converged. such as Vonage and magicJack. and the ability to view call logs are becoming common. Service providers can provide these services themselves over their own networks or they can offer VoIP that is hosted and managed by a third party. Business Impact: Residential VoIP is delivering on the promise of new service and revenue opportunities. however. primarily a telephone adapter that is integrated with. They need to add value to the VoIP platform by offering cross-platform integration with data and multimedia services. Inc. including gateway devices that incorporate combinations of broadband modems. however. the kind of terminal used is a matter of end-user preference. Residential VoIP can be used with traditional "black phones" or dedicated IP phones. along with softswitches and other associated call and customer management servers and software. Its bundling with broadband is having a positive effect on the uptake of services and.equipment (CPE). will continue to keep their voice lines. as residential VoIP services. which plugs into an existing broadband connection or PC but does not provide a managed service with QoS. In most cases. service providers need to find ways to encourage subscribers to add services and pay for them at lower additional costs. as well as integrating fixed and wireless platforms that can be used with any device. in many cases. or attached to. such as Skype. as the device needs to be plugged directly into the modem or router. such as Skype. as a triple play when video is added or a quad play when a TV service is added. User Advice: Communications service providers have been challenged with finding ways to differentiate themselves from competing providers. In an IP Multimedia Subsystem environment. it also serves as an additional platform for integration with broadband data and video services. At a time when consumers are looking for ways to cut spending. Consumers.

France Telecom. Jupiter Telecommunications. BT. Motorola. Time Warner Cable. TeleNet. Verizon Communications. Cablecom. Comcast.Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: 20% to 50% of target audience Maturity: Mature mainstream Sample Vendors: Arris. AT&T. Cisco. Cedar Point Communications. Nokia Siemens Networks. Genband. Charter Communications. UPC. Telenor. | G00214660 . Vonage Appendixes Page 134 of 139 Gartner. TeliaSonera. Rogers Communications. Cablevision. Inc. Megacable Comunicaciones. Shaw Communications. Videotron. Cablemas.

2010 expectations VoIP Wireless WAN Self-Organizing Networks Rich Communication Suite RF Over Glass White Spaces: Unlicensed Spectrum TV WDM PON 802. Inc. | G00214660 Page 135 of 139 .16e-2005 IPTV High-Speed Uplink Packet Access TD-SCDMA MPEG-4 Advanced Video Coding FTTH Switched Digital Video Network DVR DOCSIS 3.16m Broadband Over Power Lines 802.11r-2008 WiMAX 802.22 100 Gbps Transport 4G Standard Convergent Communications Advertising Platforms Addressable TV Advertising Public Cloud Computing/the Cloud Network Sharing 10G PON TD-LTE Next-Generation Service Delivery Platforms Long Term Evolution Femtocells Interactive TV IMS GMPLS/ASON MPLS-TP Mobile TV Broadcasting 40 Gbps Transport HSPA+ 802.Figure 3.11n Residential VoIP ROADMs Next-Generation Voice Mobile TV Streaming Smart Antennas CMTS Bypass LTE-A 3D TV Services WiMAX 802.0 Cable VDSL2 Mobile Application Stores As of July 2010 Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity time Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2 years Source: Gartner (July 2010) 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years obsolete before plateau Gartner. Hype Cycle for Communications Service Provider Infrastructure.

public demonstration. Approximately 20% of the technology's target audience has adopted or is adopting the technology as it enters this phase. The only enterprises making money are conference organizers and magazine publishers. Tools and methodologies are increasingly stable as they enter their second and third generations. improved user experience) that will be difficult to translate into increased revenue or cost savings High Moderate Low Source: Gartner (July 2011) Page 136 of 139 Gartner. The time required for the technology to reach the Plateau of Productivity. risks and benefits. it rapidly becomes unfashionable. Inc. The real-world benefits of the technology are demonstrated and accepted. but more failures. Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity Years to Mainstream Adoption Source: Gartner (July 2011) Table 2. except for a few cautionary tales. the rapid growth phase of adoption begins. Hype Cycle Phases Phase Technology Trigger Definition A breakthrough. Commercial off-the-shelf methodologies and tools ease the development process. Benefit Ratings Benefit Rating Transformational Definition Enables new ways of doing business across industries that will result in major shifts in industry dynamics Enables new ways of performing horizontal or vertical processes that will result in significantly increased revenue or cost savings for an enterprise Provides incremental improvements to established processes that will result in increased revenue or cost savings for an enterprise Slightly improves processes (for example. During this phase of overenthusiasm and unrealistic projections. Benefit Ratings and Maturity Levels Table 1. Because the technology does not live up to its overinflated expectations. Focused experimentation and solid hard work by an increasingly diverse range of organizations lead to a true understanding of the technology's applicability.Hype Cycle Phases. | G00214660 . product launch or other event generates significant press and industry interest. Growing numbers of organizations feel comfortable with the reduced level of risk. a flurry of wellpublicized activity by technology leaders results in some successes. as the technology is pushed to its limits. Media interest wanes.

2008-2015. 2007-2015. 2011" "Forecast: Carrier Network Infrastructure. Worldwide. 2008-2015. 2Q11 Update" "Forecast Analysis: Carrier Network Infrastructure. 2Q11 Update" "Forecast Analysis: Telecom Operations Management Systems (BSS. Worldwide. 2Q11 Update" "Forecast: Telecom Operations Management Systems (BSS. | G00214660 Page 137 of 139 .Table 3. OSS and SDP). OSS and SDP). Maturity Levels Maturity Level Embryonic Emerging Status ■ ■ Products/Vendors ■ ■ In labs Commercialization by vendors Pilots and deployments by industry leaders Maturing technology capabilities and process understanding Uptake beyond early adopters Proven technology Vendors. 2007-2015. 2Q11 Update" Gartner. technology and adoption rapidly evolving Robust technology Not much evolution in vendors or technology Not appropriate for new developments Cost of migration constrains replacement Rarely used None First generation High price Much customization Second generation Less customization Adolescent ■ ■ Early mainstream ■ ■ Third generation More out of box Methodologies Several dominant vendors Mature mainstream ■ ■ Legacy ■ ■ Maintenance revenue focus Obsolete ■ ■ Used/resale market only Source: Gartner (July 2011) Recommended Reading Some documents may not be available as part of your current Gartner subscription. Inc. Worldwide. "Understanding Gartner's Hype Cycles. Worldwide.

This research is part of a set of related research pieces. See Gartner's Hype Cycle Special Report for 2011 for an overview. Page 138 of 139 Gartner. | G00214660 . Inc.

gartner. Inc. or its affiliates.com/technology/about/ ombudsman/omb_guide2. funds or their managers. completeness or adequacy of such information and shall have no liability for errors. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. All rights reserved. Gartner. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner. | G00214660 Page 139 of 139 . CT 06902-7700 USA +1 203 964 0096 Japan Headquarters Gartner Japan Ltd. Ltd. Gartner does not provide legal advice or services and its research should not be construed or used as such. das Nações Unidas. Level 9. For further information on the independence and integrity of Gartner research. Aobadai. Gartner is a public company. http://www. TW20 9AW UNITED KINGDOM +44 1784 431611 Asia/Pacific Headquarters Gartner Australasia Pty. Inc. This publication may not be reproduced or distributed in any form without Gartner’s prior written permission. 4-chome Meguro-ku. Inc. 12551 9° andar—World Trade Center 04578-903—São Paulo SP BRAZIL +55 11 3443 1509 European Headquarters Tamesis The Glanty Egham Surrey. see “Guiding Principles on Independence and Objectivity” on its website. and its shareholders may include firms and funds that have financial interests in entities covered in Gartner research.Regional Headquarters Corporate Headquarters 56 Top Gallant Road Stamford. and/or its affiliates. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy. Aobadai Hills. 141 Walker Street North Sydney New South Wales 2060 AUSTRALIA +61 2 9459 4600 © 2011 Gartner. 6F 7-7. Tokyo 153-0042 JAPAN +81 3 3481 3670 Latin America Headquarters Gartner do Brazil Av. Although Gartner research may include a discussion of related legal issues. Gartner research is produced independently by its research organization without input or influence from these firms.jsp. This publication consists of the opinions of Gartner’s research organization and should not be construed as statements of fact. omissions or inadequacies in such information. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Gartner’s Board of Directors may include senior managers of these firms or funds.

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