Ecosystem Adaptation to Rapidly-Rising Sea level in Tidal Wetlands of the Southeast Summary The effects of climate change

are highly variable and forecasts have substantial uncertainty. However, two virtually certain consequences of a warming climate at all scales are rising sea levels and increases in major hurricane intensity (Williams and others, 2009). These consequences increase flooding frequency and alter erosional and vegetative habitats in coastal areas. Tidal wetlands currently experiencing submergence by increasing sea levels will continue to lose area as the rate of sea level rise accelerates, and even under ideal conditions, coastal wetlands in the mid-Atlantic will likely only be able to keep up with a rate of sea level rise of 2 millimeters per year (Titus and Craghan, 2009). Over one-half of the U.S. population lives in the coastal zone, and developments in the storm-prone southeastern U. S. put lives and property at risk (NAST, 2000). To mitigate this risk, shorelines are often stabilized, altering the natural process of erosion, sedimentation, and wetland migration. To study the effect of sea level rise on tidal wetlands, an ideal study study includes a large area with different geomorphic settings, unbroken stretches of natural shoreline, minimal risk to humans, the ability to test various strategies for managing the land, and applicability to other regions. The Albemarle-Pamlico (AP) peninsula provides such a place. The proposed work seeks to understand, through monitoring and modeling, the effect of various adaptive management alternatives to maintain the ecological and biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the region in the face of a rising sea level and changes in hydrology. The effects of global climate change and accelerated sea level rise pose an immediate threat to the complex network of estuaries and wetlands of the AP peninsula. The majority of the peninsula has an elevation no greater than 0.6 meters above current mean sea level (see figure at right). The peninsula’s 73,860 hectares are 96.4% federally owned (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge and Air Force Dare County Bombing Range) and under conservation protection by partners working together to collectively manage the landscape. Several recent studies ranked northeastern North Carolina as one of the top three most vulnerable areas to sea level rise in the United States due to landscape elevation and extensive ditching (Thieler and Hammar-Klose, 1999; CIER, 2008; Band and Salvesen, 2009). The current rate of relative sea level rise in this region is 3+ millimeters per year, with the rate expected to double within the next 50 to 100 years (Kemp and others, 2009). The objectives of the study are to: 1. Evaluate habitat change due to sea level rise and the corresponding changes in inundation frequency and magnitude.

2. Simulate hydrologic and habitat change resulting from adaptive management actions. 3. Quantify land surface accretion/subsidence rates, and LiDAR accuracy in each major habitat. 4. Provide common datasets, calibrated models, and develop the framework to loosely link different models to spur further research; effectively creating an instant framework for efficiently calibrating and evaluating new modeling approaches. This will be done by: 1. Performing a survey to define the vertical and horizontal positions of marsh monitoring locations and to evaluate the accuracy of existing LiDAR data in each habitat. 2. Assembling input data for the coastal ecological landscape models, converting data as needed, and uploading all information to a common access server. 3. Monitoring water level in one location and marsh subsidence/accretion in 11 habitats. 4. Predicting the effects of management adaption scenarios for various climate projections of sea level rise and tropical storm frequency and magnitude using four coastal ecology landscape models. 5. Documenting project results. 6. Opening the server that houses the data, results, and models to the wider modeling community and letting the resource continue to grow. The expected products include several calibrated coastal landscape ecology models that simulate the effect of various adaptive management practices on wetland processes and spatial extent. The parameterization of the models will be described and the data used to calibrate the models, and the models themselves will be published and publicly accessible. The water-level and surface elevation table data will provide critical information for land managers in North Carolina and beyond. The Nature Conservancy plans to continue the monitoring after the conclusion of this study. Through this project, the AP peninsula will become an efficient testing and comparison area for new coastal ecology landscape models. It also provides an in-depth case study for coastal areas that have not yet been affected, but need to prepare. Six USGS Scientific Investigations Reports: 1) WETLANDS model, 2) Habitat-Specific Ecosystem Model, 3) Expert-knowledge Bayesian network model, 4) Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model, 5) water level, accretion/subsidence monitoring, and digital elevation model validation, and 6) a comprehensive report of all of the models and monitoring. Team members will be encouraged to publish in professional journals and present at conferences. All data, results, calibrated models, and explanations of how to access and utilize the information will be publicly available on the Internet. Read and write access to the servers will be enabled for the public at the completion of the project and will allow access to other modelers to use all of the resources, add results, and share calibrated models. The research team will host a workshop to present results to the community in the third year and will continue involvement in the South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative and the Eastern North Carolina, Southeastern Virginia Strategic Habitat Conservation teams. The personnel, cooperators and partners include: Dr. Loren Wehmeyer, team facilitation, data compilation, monitoring, wetland landscape modeling Dr. Donald Cahoon, wetland elevation monitoring network design and installation training Dr. Lauren Hay, software development and data management system configuration Dr. Thomas Doyle, large storm analysis and wetland landscape modeling Dr. Roxolana Kashuba, Dr. Enrique Reyes, & Mr. Robert Mickler, wetland landscape modeling Mr. John Stanton & Mr. Dennis Stewart, ecological implications on the management of wildlife Dr. Brian Boutin, fieldwork, model interpretation, and management application

TITLE: Ecosystem Adaptation to Rapidly-Rising Sea level in Tidal Wetlands of the Southeast PRINCIPAL CONTACT: Dr. Loren Wehmeyer, Hydrologist, USGS North Carolina Water Science Center (2510), (919) 571-4094, llwehmey@usgs.gov OBJECTIVES/JUSTIFICATION: North Carolina’s Albemarle-Pamlico (AP) peninsula and its surrounding waters (shown at right) support many species of resident and migratory fish and wildlife, including 48 documented species of fish (Allen and others, 1979; Baker and Smith, 1965; Hester and Copeland, 1975; Johnson and other, 1980); 145 species of birds (Potter, 1982); 48 species of reptiles and amphibians (Allen and others, 1979; Braswell and Wiley, 1982); and 40 species of mammals (Clark and others, 1985). The area supports wildlife species that are important from both a regional and a national standpoint and lies at or near the northern limit of ranges for several vertebrate species (Noffsinger and others, 1984). The AP peninsula marks the northern end of the threatened American alligator's range and remains a stronghold for the black bear, the endangered red-cockaded woodpecker, bald eagle, and the endangered red wolf (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2008), which is regarded as one of the most endangered animals in the world (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1997). Imperiled vegetative communities in the AP peninsula include nonriverine wet hardwood forest, peatland Atlantic white cedar forest, nonriverine swamp forest, and low pocosin (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2008). The North Carolina Natural Heritage Program has designated three Significant Natural Heritage Areas on the AP peninsula, and the North Carolina Division of Water Quality has designated several water bodies in the vicinity as outstanding resource waters (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2008). The significance of providing tools to increase the understanding of sea level rise effects is clear. At the federal level, Department of Interior, Department of Agriculture, Department of Commerce, and the Department of Defense all have substantial land management and conservation programs. At the state level, the Albemarle Pamlico National Estuary Program is tasked to restore and protect the peninsula and its surrounding waterbodies. In the last two years, the Nature Conservancy has overseen over 600 hours per year in volunteer labor and has received over $1,500,000 in private donations, with a goal of $3,000,000 by 2016 to conduct studies and implement management actions for mitigating the effects of sea level rise on the AP Peninsula. The proposed work addresses three of the six science directions described in the USGS 2007-2017 Science Strategy, specifically 1) understanding ecosystems and predicting ecosystem change, 2) climate variability and change, and 3) national hazards, risk, and resilience assessment (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). It also addresses or establishes the framework to address all five of the priority science activities defined in the NCCWSC 2009 National Workshop Summary (U.S. Geological Survey, 2009). Climate change threatens this resource-rich and vulnerable peninsula. Changes in the frequency and magnitude of large storms can result in shoreline erosion and degrade freshwater habitats with saline storm overwash, while sea level rise threatens to inundate the land surface and accelerate wetland loss. The proposed work seeks to understand, through monitoring and modeling, the effect of various adaptive management alternatives to maintain the ecological and biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the region in the face of rising sea level and changes in hydrology. Specifically, this project will: 1. Evaluate habitat change due to sea level rise and changes in storm frequency and magnitude. 2. Simulate hydrologic and habitat change resulting from management actions. 3. Quantify land surface accretion/subsidence rates, and LiDAR accuracy in 11 habitats.

4. Provide common datasets, calibrated models, and develop the framework to loosely link different models to spur further research; effectively creating an instant framework for efficiently calibrating and evaluating new modeling approaches. The proposed project provides a single platform for several of the best coastal ecology landscape models (CELMs) to interact in order to address a problem. The ensemble approach is better than using only one model and helps managers select the most appropriate model to employ in subsequent situations and allows researchers to test new models using common datasets. It also established one of the densest networks of surface elevation tables (SETs) on the Atlantic coast, which will help local, regional and national scientists understand the relation between sea level rise and land surface accretion/subsidence. BACKGROUND: Much of the AP peninsula is at an elevation of less than 2 meters above mean sea level (Corbett and others, 2008). From 1980-2000 sea level in the AP peninsula area rose at the rate of about 0.5 meters per 100 years (Riggs and others, 2008). Lateral saltwater intrusion has resulted in the landward expansion of the fringe salt marsh, replacing the pocosin swamp forest that is more resistant to erosion (Riggs and Ames, 2003). The peninsula has been cleared and logged for over 300 years (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2008). The figure at right shows the extensive network of ditches, which drain the wetlands and introduce saline water into the interior of the peninsula. The red rectangle in the figure shows the location where The Nature Conservancy and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recently installed a water control structure with a flap valve and plan to introduce appropriate vegetation as a technique to preserve freshwater vegetative habitat. Canals have been shown to facilitate movement of brackish water from the Alligator River into the interior of the Buckridge Reserve (near the AP peninsula) during large storms and wind tides (Ferrell and others, 2007). The Nature Conservancy and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service have invested heavily in examining adaptive management alternatives to help the AP peninsula adapt to the effects of climate change. They selected five adaptive management actions that were both feasible and had the greatest chance for success. The adaptive management alternatives include planting appropriate vegetation, building oyster reefs and managing water in the canals in order to compensate partially for the spatial and temporal habitat changes that hydrologic alterations have caused throughout the region, and can buy the ecosystem time to adapt. The five adaptive management alternatives selected include: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Constructing fringing oyster reefs along the eastern shoreline Restoring marsh along northern shoreline (sawgrass, salt meadow hay, black needle rush) Restoring marsh along the western shoreline (sawgrass, salt meadow hay, black needle rush) Planting bald cypress in all of the agricultural fields Installing water control structures with flap valves at all canals along the eastern coast

Coastal ecology landscape models predict habitat in space and time and are effective tools for visualizing the effects of sea level rise on land-based habitat. This developing field of study has been hindered by the challenges in demonstrating the predictive ability of these models and the barriers in coordinating the evaluation of new techniques and models with alternate approaches (Turner and others, 1987; Costanza and Voinov, 2004).The two most important data sources driving the CELMs are land surface elevation and mean sea level. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data were collected across the AP peninsula in 2001 and provide a high-resolution digital elevation model. The North Carolina Water

cropland. In the future. 2007.gov/csdl/sealevelrise. low shrub pocosin. Geological Survey. The Sea Level Rise Rectification Program (SLRRP) generates local sea level projections based on IPCC projections for each emission scenario and 7 general circulation models combined with intra. SLRRP rectifies the historical tide record and future eustatic sea level rise into a common datum to facilitate comparison with land-based elevations.and interannual variability of sea level determined from local tide gage records (Keim and others. see National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 2009. mixed pine/hardwood forest.nauticalcharts. within the region (HURASIM.S. SLRRP will produce hydrographic time-series that can be used seamlessly as an input to the other models. The Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) provides much of the framework for this evaluation.er. see Doyle. The SLRRP model generates a sea level prediction by wrapping the historical mean monthly records for the period of record up to year 2100 before adding the predicted or accelerated eustatic sea level rise based on a selected IPCC model and scenario. Each model has already been developed for the AP peninsula (SLAMM. so ADCIRC can potentially be loosely coupled efficiently in future collaborations (see http://www. see Mickler and Welch.noaa. Atlantic white cedar forest.The CELMs simulate habitat location and extent. 2010). encompassing a wide range of emissions by 2100.Science Center is one of the agency leaders in LiDAR data manipulation and can resample the data into various pixel sizes. WETLANDS. 2008. U. brackish marsh. 1997).8 mm/year (0. see Doyle and others. managed wetlands. Doyle and others. which includes a viewing interface (Nathaniel Plant and Rob Theiler). 2003) or is location-independent (Bayesian network model). This permits the determination of elevation change occurring over different portions of the sediment profile because it can be attached to benchmarks that are driven to both deeper and shallower depths. The subset of emissions scenarios selected for this project include A1F1 and B1.com/). 2007) will be used. 2009). coastal erosion.html and http://www. and inundation under geological constraints. Future mean sea levels based on emission scenarios articulated in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report (IPCC. PROCEDURES/METHODS: Monitoring Monitoring changes in marsh surface elevation must be done with high precision because annual changes in elevation are generally only a few millimeters. 2009). Fish and Wildlife Service will collaborate in coupling wildlife population models with the CELMs. The proposed work builds on two recent NCCWSC and global change program projects. . The USGS National Assessment of Shoreline Change program has published shapefiles of historic shoreline location (U. high shrub pocosin. Douglas. Cahoon and others (1995. a neighboring watershed (Habitat-Specific Ecosystem Model. including a sensitivity and accuracy assessment (Alexa McKerrow) of the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) and the use of a Bayesian model to relate sea level.ncsealevelrise. Field surveying in each of the peninsula’s 11 habitat types (pond pine/shrub pocosin. but may not have the resolution necessary for adequately evaluating the adaptive management alternatives. 2005) and the effects of extreme storms on coastal change (http://coastal. SLRRP uses an historical eustatic sea level rate of 1.S.gov/hurricanes/). 1999) present a method whereby surface accretion processes are monitored by repeated sampling of artificial marker horizon plots and then marsh surface elevation is correspondingly monitored with a rod surface elevation table. Small pixels in dense vegetation can result in the bare earth inaccurately being defined as the top surface of the vegetation. pond pine/cane pocosin.071 in) conferred by several sources as the best estimate for the global-mean of the 20th Century (IPCC. Pixels that are large may avoid this problem. non-alluvial hardwood forest. The next step is to model wildlife populations given habitat extent.usgs. NOAA and FEMA have also funded sea level rise modeling projects using a storm surge model (ADCIRC) that has the same output file type as the proposed models. and cypress-gum forest) will provide a way to quantify the vertical accuracy of the digital elevation models within each habitat type.

Model output for 1851-2007 will be analyzed to review the periodicity of storm events and to construct future characteristics of storm frequency under a changing . HURASIM is a spatial simulation model of hurricane structure and circulation for reconstructing estimated wind force and vectors of past hurricanes (Doyle and others. Don Cahoon will travel to North Carolina to train staff from the North Carolina Water Science Center and The Nature Conservancy in the installation. 2006). The Nature Conservancy has agreed to cover the continuing costs for maintenance and data collection of the SETs. Station locations will be established every 30 meters along a given transect or traverse from which land elevation. and accretion information will be gathered. Three replicate SETs will be installed in each of the 11 habitat types identified and described in U. and sediment supply (Cahoon and others. 2009). historical characteristics of tropical storms and incorporate their characteristics under a changing climate into the CELMs. Hurricane landfall rates vary greatly with high and low frequency for given coastal stretches of the southeastern United States (Doyle.Wetland response to sea level rise differs among wetlands depending on geomorphic setting. vegetation cover and stature will be recorded. The second is to simulate coastal ecological processes that affect landscape habitat dynamics using the CELMs. The first is to evaluate the local. dominant vegetation type.S. The USGS will install a stage-only gage on the eastern coast of the AP peninsula that will measure and record water-level data necessary to quantify the relative change in the land surface elevation. Fish and Wildlife Service (2008). 2009). central pressure. tidal range. and maximum sustained wind speed every six hours or less. latitude and longitude. maintenance. 1982) and water-level data will be published annually. Data input for the model include tracking information of storm position. subsidence. At the completion of the project.S. The closest tidal water-level gage to the AP peninsula is at Duck. surface water elevation. 2100) and the five adaptive management scenarios mentioned previously. Model applications have been validated for wind speed and direction with meteorological data collected from portable anemometers that were deployed to capture wind data during landfall of Hurricane Rita (2005) at different locations in southwest Louisiana and eastern Texas. 2010. The gage will be maintained according to USGS protocols (Rantz. 1995. HURASIM Model The regularity and severity of tropical storms are major determinants controlling ecosystem structure and succession for coastal ecosystems. The model uses historical (1851-2010) tracking and meteorological data of North Atlantic tropical storms taken from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center HURDAT database. 2020. The relative change in the land surface elevation compared to mean sea level is more important than accretion and subsidence rates alone. 2002). region. The CELMs will be initialized in 1932 and 2010 (dates of aerial photos) and simulate two IPCC emission scenarios (A1F1 and B1) for five dates (1961. The HURASIM model will be applied in this study to provide a retrospective analysis of spatial and temporal chronologies of hurricane incidents for the AP Peninsula. Fish and Wildlife Service. North Carolina on the opposite side of the North Carolina barrier islands. 2060. 2008) identified habitat types. Real-time kinematic global positioning system (GPS) surveying will be used to establish vertical elevations of SET benchmarks (with millimeter vertical accuracy) within the 11 (U. Doyle and Girod. Doyle. All surveys will be linked to known or measured elevation networks tied to SET monuments or tidal benchmarks. The model estimates storm characteristics and produces profiles of maximum predicted wind conditions for a given site stored by year and storm from 1851 to 2010. Elevation surveys will be conducted across the AP Peninsula to coincide with SET sites where hydrology. 1997. and monitoring of the sites (Cahoon and others. A combination of real-time kinematic GPS and differential leveling survey by traditional methods will be used to run traverses and circuits across vegetation types and communities to build species occurrence models relative to local hydrology and tidal coupling. Modeling This study includes two modeling aspects.

The model contains functional attributes of community sensitivity to hydrological conditions. 1990). WETLANDS Model The WETLANDS landscape simulation model predicts changes in the spatial distribution of coastal marsh and forest due to sea level rise (Doyle. Each model will be set up to start running in 1932. Doyle and others. Kjaerulff and Madsen. and 2100. Windspeed profiles and storm surge frequencies will be used in the CELMs to predict the effects of potential forest damage and increased soil salinity from surge overwash.5-meter resolution LiDAR data and 3-meter-by-3-meter resolution LiDAR data to be used as digital elevation models. 2008) relating expert knowledge of ecosystems to climate change and management scenarios. The model simulates pore water salinity to relate emergent vegetation to surficial hydrology and to predict marsh migration upslope under rising sea level. These spatial models referred to as CELMs incorporate location-specific algorithms that allow feedback between the local processes and the landscape habitat dynamics. 2060. each model will output five dates. Therefore. The 11 habitat types defined from the past and present aerial photos will be converted to grid files and included as shared data. combined with the development and implementation of a biophysical simulation model . The CELMs will all be generated from common data sources to facilitate model comparisons.climate. organization and synthesis of environmental data. Maps of aquatic and terrestrial habitat at a community level are used to initialize model simulation by vegetative type and associated dominant species. The CELMs applied in this study include WETLANDS (Doyle. Flood height is then used to predict favored habitat condition based on probability functions of species and community tolerance to coastal inundation and elevation calibrated from elevation and hydrological surveys. so that both the diverse habitats and the intensity of the processes affecting them changes throughout time (Boumans and Sklar. Mean sea level for each IPCC emission scenario and date will be derived from the SLRRP model (described in the background section).S. In the proposed project. 1998. Coastal Ecological Landscape Models (CELMs) Ecological research and management assessment has been accomplished using spatially articulated biophysical models for over two decades (Sklar and others. 2000. 1985. and for the two selected IPCC emission scenarios (A1F1 and B1). 2000). Reyes and others. associated sediment loads. and an application of a Bayesian network approach (Jensen and Nielsen. with the initiation from the first aerial photographs. Each model will produce map sets of habitat extent for the five adaptive management scenarios for each date. The model will then be re-initialized to start in 2010 with results output for 2020. including habitat type and topography. and long-term effects of climate change on the survival of wetland communities. Storm surge frequencies obtained from the HURASIM model will be used to elevate soil salinities favoring salt-tolerant vegetation. Fish and Wildlife and other partners to classify the locations and extent of the 11 habitat types using images that date back to 1932. Ortho-rectified aerial photography will be interpreted by U. SLAMM (Clough and others. 2007. 2004.5-meter-by-1. the WETLANDS model will use a LiDAR-based digital elevation model and habitat maps from available sources for the AP Peninsula (White and Sellars. 2004). 2010). Bales and others. Doyle and others. 2003). Each of the CELMs will be modified to produce maps (grid files) of the spatial extent of these 11 habitats. 2003). 2007) to simulate a likelihood index of habitat change and conversion under the different scenarios of sea level rise and adaptive management. Results will be presented for 1961 and 2010 when aerial photographs can be used to assess the predictive ability of the model from 1932 to 2010. for up to 50 maps. two emission scenarios and five management scenarios. The modeling effort includes the collection. Habitat-Specific Ecosystem Model Habitat-Specific Ecosystem Model assesses the spatial correlation between present and proposed hydrologic modifications. Habitat-Specific Ecosystem Model (Reyes and others. 1997. Input data include 1.

for the EPA Report to Congress on potential effects of global change. Using expert knowledge to parameterize a predictive model offers a variety of benefits. and their synergy (Hopkinson and others. and a vegetation module that computes above and below wetland biomass. Water crossing from one cell to another carries both organic and inorganic particles.that incorporates a shallow-water hydrodynamic module. Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) SLAMM was developed with U. incorporating uncertainty assessment into model . First. It has received a cool reception from USGS scientists. and SLAMM will be included in the comprehensive report. The model uses hydrological information to compute wetland primary productivity. Nyman and others. the fractional conversion from one class to another is computed based on the relative change in elevation divided by the elevation range of the cell’s class. resuspended. 2004). which can be calibrated further in future work with SET data after at least three years of monitoring. green and brown biomass. while ecological processes of soil formation and habitat change will be derived from averaged results of the mechanistic processes simulated in the model. and mean sea level depend on the IPCC emissions scenario and date selected. Shallow and well-mixed water bodies will be simulated using two-dimensional. 1986) and has subsequently been used to simulate sea level rise on 20% of the coast of the contiguous U. Wetland colonization routines will be added to represent vegetative responses to the deposition of sediments and elevation changes. This balance of sediment inputs and outputs is critical for predicting how wetland succession and productivity are affected by natural and human activities. maximum growth rate and a limiting function. No USGS funding will support the development of SLAMM. However. because the forcing functions do not allow for feedbacks among variables (Kirwan and Guntenspergen. flooding duration. The model domain is divided into cells of equal area. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) funding (Park and others. The model will simulate accretion rates throughout the sediment profile. These suspended materials are partitioned between being deposited. and carried to the next cell. The change in water level in each cell is determined in the model by water exchanges in and out of the cell across all four boundaries plus surplus rainfall. Long-term geologic processes such as accretion. A decision tree incorporates geometric and qualitative relationships to represent transfers among coastal habitat classes. subsidence. Mitsch. Expert-knowledge parameterized Bayesian network model Expert knowledge is the backbone of science. SLAMM simulates the dominant processes involved in wetland conversions and shoreline modifications during long-term sea level rise. and outputs due to erosion and subsidence on the other. The model computes water levels. Expert judgment expresses an intuitive sense of how confidently science knows particular relationships. Marsh and swamp productivity are calculated as net primary productivity for each plant community in the model. 1988. salinity.S. salinity. and each vegetation class within a cell is simulated separately. the site-specific rate of change of elevation due to accretion or subsidence and isostatic adjustment. The model computes above and below-ground biomass as a function of biomass. among other reasons. and sea level rise will be included as boundary conditions.S. and suspended sediment concentrations for all locations in the peninsula. 1990). 1988. The limiting function accounts for daily temperature. a soil-building component to account for elevation changes. The sum of the historic eustatic trend. The relative rates of each of these exchanges in each location are a function of habitat type. it provides a comprehensive assessment of a system from all information synthesized over a career’s worth of experience. water level. For each time step. 2000. In summary. The USGS will work with Bob Mickler (North Carolina State University) to publish a report consistent with the other reports. horizontal plane models (Reyes and others. lost due to subsidence. SLAMM will be treated the same as the other models. The Nature Conservancy intends to fund the development of SLAMM and it will be integrated seamlessly into this project. Relative sea level change is computed for each cell and time step. 2009). The buildup of land or the development of open water in a cell depends on the balance between net inputs of sediments and local organic peat deposition.

The challenge is translating this expertise into a quantifiable form that can then be compared with output from other models. observed. and then use that knowledge directly in model development and parameterization. The orientation of these child and parent nodes is selected in such as way as to describe the causal relationships between variables in a system. but need to prepare for it. 2006) offers a viable solution to meet this goal. Comparison metrics will include hectares of habitat match between predicted. Taroni and others. and adaptive management alternative. date. 4) SLAMM model. The research team will host a workshop to present results to the wider . The goal is to codify expert knowledge. calibrated models. and 6) a comprehensive report of all of the models and monitoring. add results. the AP peninsula will become an efficient testing and comparison area for new coastal ecology landscape models. The online geodatabase will include maps of habitat extent from model runs. mean sea level and management action.parameterization. and explanations of how to access and utilize the information will be publically available on the Internet. a node with arrows pointing to it is called a ‘child node’ and a node with arrows pointing from it is called a ‘parent node’. results. 2000. Through this project. and documentation for using and interacting with the information. This network predicts the impact of changes to any node on the entire system. A Bayesian network is a probabilistic modeling framework consisting of a series of nodes and arrows. In this network (or graphical model). 3) Expert-knowledge Bayesian network model. dependent on the values of its parent node(s). Jensen and Nielsen. For each of the hindcasting dates. Team members will be encouraged to publish in professional journals and present at conferences. This series of parent-child relationships is then linked together into one interdependent network. Spirtes and others. Comprehensive evaluation and comparison of CELMs Each model will output a map of the extent of the predicted 11 habitat types (and the associated probability of each habitat for the models capable of doing this) for each of the combinations of emission scenario. Read and write access to the servers will be enabled for the public at the completion of the project and will allow other modelers to use all of the resources. predicting the likelihood of each habitat type given each climate and management scenario. TECHNOLOGY/INFORMATION TRANSFER: All data. These individual. and between models to establish a degree of association. Pourret and others. 2004. Each child node is modeled as a distribution of likely values. It also provides an in-depth case study for coastal areas that have not yet been affected by sea level rise. The data used to calibrate the models and the models themselves will be published and publicly accessible. 2008. which causally precede it. 2) Habitat-Specific Ecosystem Model. appropriately recognizing the degree of uncertainty in that knowledge. respectively. Using expert knowledge to parameterize the relationships between nodes. 5) monitoring and digital elevation model validation. each of the calibrated models. representing variables and relationships between variables. 2007. 2008. The water-level and surface elevation table data will provide critical information for land managers in North Carolina and beyond and The Nature Conservancy plans to continue the monitoring after the conclusion of this study. the output of this type of network is expert-predicted probability distribution of likelihood of each habitat type to occur at each location in the study area given factors such as current habitat. site-level Bayesian networks can be aggregated using a geographic information system interface into spatially explicit probability maps. 1999. all of the input data. the output will be compared to the grid files generated from interpretations of the ortho-rectified aerial photographs. Kjaerulff and Madsen. Six USGS Scientific Investigations Reports: 1) WETLANDS model. EXPECTED PRODUCTS: The expected products include several calibrated coastal landscape ecosystem models that simulate the effect of various adaptive management practices on wetland processes and spatial extent. and share calibrated models. Neapolitan. A Bayesian network approach (Heckerman.

including the digital elevation model. monitoring. the potential payoff is significant because it makes modeling information readily accessible across an entire modeling community. but interested in the application of the research. and other inputs defined at the onset of the project. wetland landscape modeling MANAGEMENT PLAN: This is a complex project with several different aspects to manage. This work proposes addressing these issues by using defined protocols based on open standards. At the initiation of the project. the data. models. and will have technical assistance. large storm analysis and wetland landscape modeling • Roxolana Kashuba (USGS North Carolina Water Science Center). ensuring that the files can be pushed into one of the system’s THREDDS servers. but more fundamentally lacks a standard definition for the term “shared data”. Adherence to industry best practices and required security configurations will be implemented by local Information Technology support personnel. These limitations complicate the exchange of information between researchers for use in digital models. Quality control will continue to be the responsibility of each modeler. The investigators will be involved with the SHC team and part of an annual workshop addressing climate change and modeling in the SALCC. DATA MANAGEMENT: Cross-disciplinary research between modeling groups is complicated by the variety of file formats and semantics of data that are used by different researchers. From a scientific perspective. The Nature Conservancy will incorporate this information into material presented to individuals and organizations that may not be interested in the scientific details of the research. as needed. The research team will be trained in metadata creation at a workshop in the first year. data compilation. The proposed form of data management involves use of a web portal system to be developed by the USGS’s Geographic Information Office in order to provide web services for accessing model datasets from Windows-based servers located in science centers throughout the USGS. Lauren Hay will outline a systematic . The modelers are limited to these shared resources to ensure all of the models have the same data. Southeastern Virginia Strategic Habitat Conservation (SHC) team. The modeling community lacks not only a standard data exchange format. Finally. All input data to the models will be consistent. and related information will be accessible via the Internet. comprehensive model evaluation leader • Lauren Hay (USGS National Research Program). wetland landscape modeling. software development and data management • Thomas Doyle (USGS National Wetland Research Center). in a workspace capable of subsequently incorporating additional models added from the wider research community. The initial investment in converting models to a common language is small. Scientists need a simple solution to facilitate the interconnection of their models thereby fostering truly interdisciplinary research. Loren Wehmeyer will be the contact for all cooperators and partners. a server will be set up in the North Carolina Water Science Center that utilizes THREDDS technology. Throughout the project.coastal climate change research community in the third year. PERSONNEL: • Loren Wehmeyer (USGS North Carolina Water Science Center). An important aspect of the proposed work involves the continued involvement of project partners with the South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative (SALCC) and the Eastern North Carolina. the information will be incorporated into the Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center science projects modeling framework and portal. sea-level rise scenarios. For this project. but there will be an immediate increase in efficiency resulting from a reduction in data reformatting tasks normally performed by modelers. Then each model will be modified to both input and output an open standard data format (NetCDF). to ensure metadata and documentation are in acceptable formats and condition.

f: 301-4975624. BUDGET: Objective: Improve understanding of land surface accretion and subsidence relative to sea level. ECU. John_Stanton@fws. bboutin@tnc. Costs: SET supplies. • Donald Cahoon (USGS Patuxent Wildlife Science Center) SET monitoring (technical) 10300 Baltimore Avenue. the online workspace will be accessible to anyone via the Internet. model interpretation. p: 919-406-2104. Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge) Assessing ecological implications on the management of wildlife in general (in-kind and technical) P.com • John Stanton (USFWS South Atlantic Migratory Bird Coordination Office) Assessing ecological implications on the management of migratory birds (in-kind and technical) P. Beltsville. Columbia. All data. Modelers are responsible for submitting quarterly updates to Loren Wehmeyer that will be reviewed as part of the North Carolina Water Science Center Support and Technical Assistance Team review. dennis_stewart@fws.000. f: 252-296-2403.gov • Brian Boutin (The Nature Conservancy) Fieldwork. reyese@ecu. Because all data and results are stored on servers accessible to all partners. p: 252-796-2400. Box 210. The modelers will provide their model source code to Loren Wehmeyer and he will package them up and send them to Lauren Hay. results.O. and management application (in-kind and technical) 701 West Ocean Acres Dr.gov • Enrique Reyes (East Carolina University through the Piedmont-South Atlantic Coast CESU) Wetland landscape modeling (in-kind and technical) Dept. p: 252-328-5778. Suite 200. f: 252441-1271. SET installation with in-kind contribution of one month of labor by TNC. coring device for SET installation. p: 252-441-2525. The data server will be set up using THREDDS technology at the North Carolina Water Science Center using best practices and security configuration. water-level gage annual management. rmickler@alionscience. validate. p: 301-497-5523. MD 20705. COOPERATORS/PARTNERS: The following individuals will provide services. calibrated models.org FACILITIES/EQUIPMENT/STUDY AREA(S): The field-study area is the federally owned land of the Albemarle-Pamlico peninsula. Greenville. NC 27954. SET platform: $160. monitoring.edu • Bob Mickler (North Carolina State University) Wetland landscape modeling (technical) 1000 Park Forty Plaza. NC 27925. time donated). the progress of each modeler can be tracked. but will not receive salary money from this project.. NC 27713. BARC-East. Once the North Carolina Water Science Center has the computer hardware and network functioning. NC 27858. LEGAL AND POLICY-SENSITIVE ASPECTS: There are no legal or policy-sensitive aspects of this project. and prepare data sources and models. training (travel expense only. Box 1969.O.process for preparing each model to be modified. as well as annual progress reports for incorporation into the NCCWSC annual progress reports. and documentation of how to run the models will be stored online. At the completion of the project. Lauren Hay will come to North Carolina for a workshop with the modelers to ensure that all team members understand how to appropriately utilize and take advantage of the framework efficiently. with the exception of a server that provides access to models and datasets from internet-capable devices. p: 252-473-1131 x231. Objective: Assemble. of Biology. f: 252-328-4178. Manteo. Kill Devil Hills. Bldg 308.gov • Dennis Stewart (USFWS. dcahoon@usgs. No new facilities or major equipment will be utilized. f: 252-473-1668. water-level gage installation. f: 919-549-4995. Durham. . NC 27948.

data assembly and management: $90. Amount requested from NCCWSC: $897. Costs: WETLANDS.520. They are interested in exploring the possibility of loosely coupling their models of evapotranspiration.000 grant from Duke Energy.Costs: Workspace and data management configuration. LEVERAGING: In 2008.000. install stations Compile data. Objective: Model landscape habitats incorporating climate change effects. tangible management actions. detailed historic and wetland vegetation maps.000. This project will provide additional scientific justification for this action.000+ in active management informed by the work.014. See budget spreadsheets for breakdown. reports for each model in peer-review Comprehensive modeling report and marsh monitoring report in peer-review FY 2012 Annual Progress Report submitted Project completion pending peer review and security check of online resources All documentation and reports published.204 in cost share. The focus of the work conducted by The Nature Conservancy is concrete. $29. Additionally. East Carolina University: $20.400 in in-kind services related to model interpretation. Fish and Wildlife Service: $38.S.000. and soil surveys. and anticipates raising an addition $2.075 for SLAMM modeling. create software to share common data and models Use conventional surveying to validate LiDAR data. Forest Service has a rich ongoing research program on the peninsula including a series of top-down and bottom-up ecosystem studies using eddycovariance methodology and detailed analyses of net primary production and soil carbon dynamics at a series of managed and unmanaged ecosystems. SLAMM (only Report writing and publication funded by USGS) models. Funds from other sources: The Nature Conservancy: $29. In 2009. An exciting benefit is that the proposed project will be followed up by $1. 2010).S. surveying for LiDAR validation and SET elevations. U. WORK AND REPORTING SCHEDULE: Design marsh monitoring network. the Department of Defense funded a study using SLAMM to simulate the effects of sea level rise on the AP peninsula. The U.000 in private donations within the next 3 years to facilitate adaptive management of the land on the AP peninsula for the effects of climate change. server publically available 10/2010-4/2011 10/2010-4/2011 4/2011-5/2011 5/2011-9/2011 1/2012 1/2011-5/2013 5/2013-9/2013 1/2013 9/2013 1/2014 . The WETLANDS and Bayesian network model use similar empirical concepts and a probabilistic framework and can integrate Plant’s knowledge with additional theoretically-derived biological drivers and expert opinion related to habitat change. The proposed work employs three high-resolution data products: LiDAR data with a vertical accuracy of about 10-20 centimeters (which will be further evaluated). net primary production and soil carbon storage.520.944. Project amount including in-kind contributions: $1. set up servers. the Nature Conservancy received a $1. on-the-ground. publications.745 in inkind services related to fieldwork and model interpretation. tie in marsh monitoring Analyze LiDAR data accuracy in each habitat type FY 2011 Annual Progress Report submitted Build and run models for all scenarios. both as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project. which includes the Dare bombing range (Department of Defense. Bayesian network. USGS researcher Alexa McKerrow is currently conducting a sensitivity and accuracy analysis of SLAMM and a Bayesian model employing a statistical framework for predicting coastal erosion and inundation under a range of sea level rise scenarios that consider the effects of geologic constraints and other forces has recently been developed by USGS Oceanographer Nathaniel Plant.000. publicly accessible workspace: $647. share information. Habitat-Specific Ecosystem Model.

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R.Sklar. Garbolino.E. GA.G.R. Creation of the digital elevation model for the North Carolina sea level rise project.S.H. K. U. FitzGerald. E. D. and Biedermann. x + 70 p. Geological Survey Circular 1309. [J. NOAA National Geodetic Survey unpublished report. J. A report by the U. B.S. U. Environmental Protection Agency. National assessment of coastal vulnerability to future sea level rise: Preliminary results for the U. . B. Sea-level rise and its effects on the coast. Glymour. White.R. Gutierrez. D. A. 2010 at http://nccwsc..H. Geological Survey science in the decade 2007-2017: U. Geological Survey. Burkett. Environmental Protection Agency. U. Titus (coordinating lead author). The national assessment of shoreline change: A GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the U.E. and Hammer-Klose. 2007.K.T. Turner M. Causation.W.. Chichester. Anderson. Cambridge.S. Comprehensive conservation plan: Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge. Williams (lead authors)]. Facing tomorrow’s challenges—U. National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center 2009 National Workshop Summary. 1987.pdf. Atlantic coast. Taroni.S.. Gesch. C. and Sellars.. Gutierrez. UK: Wiley.R. Titus (coordinating lead author).S. A report by the U. Geological Survey. S.. E.S. 1985. B. E.S.S..A. Washington DC. Cahoon. NC.R. 2000. M. Williams (lead authors)]. and search.K.. F.. [J. S. U.J.. J. U. K. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Dynamic spatial simulation modelling of coastal wetland habitat succession. In: Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region. S. Methods to evaluate the performance of spatial simulation models. 1999..R. Cahoon. Anderson. p. Aitkin. Ecological Modelling 29: 261-281. Costanza. U. Endangered red wolf.. Titus.. 2009.S..B. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. 2009. S.G. In: Coastal sensitivity to sea-level rise: A focus on the Mid-Atlantic region.S.G. Southeast Atlantic Coast: U. and Samenow.usgs. Geological Survey Open File Report 2005-1326 U. Thieler..E. E. Gill. P. 2005. Williams. and S.. and Sklar. C. and Day. 1997. Asheville. Gesch.S. Spirtes. V. E.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. prediction.. J. Gill.J.S.B. Thieler.. R. D. F.T.. 2008. Bayesian networks and probabilistic inference in forensic science..S.. Titus. Shore protection and retreat. Gill.. Thieler...G.gov/documents/NCCWSC_2009_National_Workshop_Summary.. D.R. Cahoon.. K. Geological Survey Open-File Report 99593. 2009. S. Atlanta.T.K. J. 1124 p. and Scheines. and Craghan.J. Fish and Wildlife Service. MA: MIT Press. Washington DC. P. F. U. R.. D. D. Ecological Modelling 48(1-2): 1-18. 2006. 87-104. Geological Survey. accessed July 15.S. Costanza.G. and S.S.. 2004. Anderson. Thieler. Gutierrez. J.R.

200 $1. all installation direct expenses Cryogenic coring device to install SETs SET platform (portable) Data management and storage equipment D.000 $1.516 $6.915 $11.770 $31.500 $3.839 $7.000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $234.400 $9.400 $38.000 $0 $18. Indirect Costs (Overhead/Burden) Bureau Center Overhead Lumped indirect costs through CESU H.000 $1.457 $69.850 $5.800 $11.500 $1.400 $6.801 $6.400 $6.774 $25.000 $1.990 .276 $4.326 $64.112 $35. Principal Investigator Salary & Benefits B.591 $298.500 $1.913 $24.900 $37.200 $18.000 $0 $40.454 $5.000 $0 $40.200 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $26.602 $8. Funds Requested (Direct + Indirect) I.000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $230.047 $40.400 $9.386 $299.500 $1.193 $234.081 $33.100 $29.000 $0 $90.500 $2. Travel Flights Hotel Mileage and M&IE E.326 $0 $37.800 $2.200 $6.557 $17.839 $49. Participant/Conference Support Costs Tuition/Fees/Registration {other} F.752 $80.806 $125.345 $4.915 2013 ITEMIZED TOTAL $57.326 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $9.198 $0 $39.000 $1. Other Personnel Salary & Benefits Lauren Hay Thomas Doyle Roxolana Kashuba USGS NC monitoring and surveying staff Graduate student support Total Salary.339 $8.128 $77.857 $63.400 $6.231 $6.200 $205.134 2012 TOTAL ITEMIZED TOTAL $45.357 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $21.537 $13.000 $1.000 $1.030 $104.342 $134.982 $299.000 $7. Other Direct Costs Materials and Supplies Publication Costs Consultant Services ADP/Computer Services Subawards/Contracts Equipment of Facility Rental/User Fees Laboratory fees Total Direct Costs G.500 $1.000 $3. Equipment Stage gage.500 $6.000 $0 $90. Partner Contribution East Carolina University John Stanton travel and salary Dennis Stewart travel and salary The Nature Conservancy travel and labor ITEMIZED $32.Total Budget 2011 SECTION A.500 $10.887 $6.260 $5.650 $56.045 $150. Wages C.

045 $134.400 $6.000 $1.651 $22.000 $8.454 $5.910 $161.000 $40.North Carolina Water Science Center 2011 SECTION A. Other Direct Costs Materials and Supplies Publication Costs Consultant Services ADP/Computer Services Subawards/Contracts Equipment of Facility Rental/User Fees Laboratory fees Total Direct Costs G.271 $20.000 $17.200 $1.400 $9.915 $19.752 $80.000 $18. Principal Investigator Salary & Benefits B.715 $6.909 $51.715 . Other Personnel Salary & Benefits Lauren Hay Thomas Doyle Roxolana Kashuba USGS NC monitoring and surveying staff Graduate student support Total Salary. Wages C.030 $20.000 $1.915 $169.200 $11.796 $7.671 $54.128 $13.727 $219.606 $22. Participant/Conference Support Costs Tuition/Fees/Registration {other} F.000 $6.200 $18.537 $13.000 $142.400 $9.000 $1.342 $70.000 $49.000 $1.400 $6.000 $1.000 $1.422 $17.000 $1.200 $40.500 $3.336 $47.336 $0 $8. Indirect Costs (Overhead/Burden) Bureau Center overhead Lumped indirect costs through CESU H. Equipment Stage gage.000 $1.322 $41.000 $1.924 $49.400 $38.260 $5.000 $6.305 2013 ITEMIZED TOTAL $57.500 $2. Travel Flights Hotel Mileage and M&IE E.400 $6.000 $5.500 $1. Funds Requested (Direct + Indirect) I.508 $183. Partner Contribution East Carolina University John Stanton travel and salary Dennis Stewart travel and salary The Nature Conservancy travel and labor ITEMIZED 2012 TOTAL ITEMIZED TOTAL $45.000 $90.500 $10. all installation direct expenses Cryogenic coring device to install SETs SET platform (portable) Data management and storage equipment D.134 $66.990 $6.790 $6.391 $29.924 $0 $8.000 $1.000 $90.079 $24.360 $27.336 $208.587 $17.

000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 . Wages C.National Research Program (Denver) 2011 SECTION A. Travel Flights Hotel Transportation and M&IE E. Funds Requested (Direct + Indirect) I. Indirect Costs (Overhead/Burden) Bureau Center Overhead Lumped indirect costs through CESU H. Equipment ITEMIZED TOTAL $32.900 $32. Principal Investigator Salary & Benefits B.500 $700 $800 $1.00 $50.900 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 D.600 $4. Partner Contribution East Carolina University John Stanton travel and salary Dennis Stewart travel and salary The Nature Conservancy travel and labor $2.000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $35. Other Direct Costs Materials and Supplies Publication Costs Consultant Services ADP/Computer Services Subawards/Contracts Equipment of Facility Rental/User Fees Laboratory fees Total Direct Costs G.00 $10.352. Participant/Conference Support Costs Tuition/Fees/Registration {other} F.400 $14.248. Other Personnel Salary & Benefits Lauren Hay Thomas Doyle Roxolana Kashuba USGS NC monitoring and surveying staff Graduate student support Total Salary.900 2012 ITEMIZED TOTAL $0 2013 ITEMIZED TOTAL $0 $32.

839 $0 $37.69 $5.839 $0 $39.339 $10. Other Direct Costs Materials and Supplies Publication Costs Consultant Services ADP/Computer Services Subawards/Contracts Equipment of Facility Rental/User Fees Laboratory fees Total Direct Costs G.839 $39.839 $37. Other Personnel Salary & Benefits Lauren Hay Thomas Doyle Roxolana Kashuba USGS NC monitoring and surveying staff Graduate student support Total Salary.940.339 $10.839 $37.661 $4. Partner Contribution East Carolina University John Stanton travel and salary Dennis Stewart travel and salary The Nature Conservancy travel and labor $1.500 $500 $500 $500 $0 $500 $500 $500 $1.339 $10.720.500 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $39. Travel Flights Hotel Transportation and M&IE E.National Wetlands Research Center 2011 SECTION A.720.339 $0 D. Participant/Conference Support Costs Tuition/Fees/Registration {other} F.19 $39.940.000 $0 $4.68 $5.19 $50. Principal Investigator Salary & Benefits B.20 $50.339 2013 ITEMIZED TOTAL $39. Funds Requested (Direct + Indirect) I.339 $37.000 $0 $39.68 $5. Indirect Costs (Overhead/Burden) Bureau Center Overhead Lumped indirect costs through CESU H.839 2012 ITEMIZED TOTAL $37.661 $50.661 $4. Equipment ITEMIZED TOTAL $37.000 $0 .940.720. Wages C.

Partner Contribution East Carolina University John Stanton travel and salary Dennis Stewart travel and salary The Nature Conservancy travel and labor $2.982 $25. Travel Flights Hotel Transportation and M&IE E.182 2013 ITEMIZED TOTAL $24.396 2012 ITEMIZED TOTAL $33. Funds Requested (Direct + Indirect) I.063 $24.396 $13. Principal Investigator Salary & Benefits B.063 $0 D. Participant/Conference Support Costs Tuition/Fees/Registration {other} F.386 Lumped indirect costs through CESU H.396 $0 $33. Other Personnel Salary & Benefits Lauren Hay Thomas Doyle Roxolana Kashuba USGS NC monitoring and surveying staff Graduate student support Total Salary.164 $8.000 $500 $500 $0 $1.063 $4. Indirect Costs (Overhead/Burden) $0 $500 $500 $0 $1.000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $13.386 $29.182 $0 $24. Other Direct Costs Materials and Supplies Publication Costs Consultant Services ADP/Computer Services Subawards/Contracts Equipment of Facility Rental/User Fees Laboratory fees Total Direct Costs G. Equipment ITEMIZED TOTAL $13.345 $34.801 $5. Wages C.063 $13.887 $4.Piedmont-South Atlantic CESU (East Carolina University) 2011 SECTION A.982 $40.516 $6.516 .182 $5.345 $15.887 $8.741 $4.801 $4.396 $2.449 $6.182 $33.

D. Water Quality expertise: Delineation of floodplain versus in-stream sources and processes affecting water quality. Saltwater intrusion in coastal rivers and adjacent wetlands.The University of Iowa. 2007-present Supervisor: Chad Wagner (919-571-4021. Development. IA (May 2008) Major: Geoscience (Water Resources emphasis) Master's Degree .gov) Lead project manager for multiple water-quality. and estuaries. commercial development. cwagner@usgs. duration. Fayette. Model domains as small as 7 miles to greater than 110 miles of river. Statistical evaluation of surface water data to determine trends and the contribution of groundwater.Gonzaga University. llwehmey@usgs. Geological Survey. Quantifying site-specific water availability and simulating future water availability scenarios with implications affecting fish and wildlife. Research has included residential floodplain mapping theory and the quantification of historical land cover change on river and floodplain geomorphology.E. Iowa City. U. IA (December 2004) Major: Business Administration (Organizational Development emphasis) Bachelor's Degree . Spokane. Simulations of the effect of hydropower operations on the depth. Land use and climate change expertise: Pre. wetlands. Surface water expertise: One. calibration. and timing of wetland inundation downstream.The University of Iowa. Ph. Wehmeyer.S. Ecological flow expertise: Relating hydrologic statistics to ecosystem needs. Raleigh NC. Hydrologist. IA (May 2006) Major: Civil and Environmental Engineering Master's Degree . two. and three dimensional coupled hydrodynamic and water quality models. Research includes quantifying the predictive ability of different metrics for estimating aquatic ecosystem characteristics. State of North Carolina USGS Experience Hydrologist . including the integration of models without prior documentation of integration at the time of development (HEC-RAS and WASP) as well as standard coupled models (HEC-RAS and CE-QUAL-W2). and transportation.gov Education Doctor of Philosophy .. and ecological flow modeling projects. P. USGS North Carolina Water Science Center (919) 571-4094.Upper Iowa University. floodplains. calibration.and post-development hydrologic impact modeling of residential areas. two and three dimensional hydrodynamic model development. . and validation of one. WA (December 2002) Major: Civil Engineering Licensure Professional Engineer. Iowa City. and validation for rivers. including nutrient cycling and the effect of low dissolved oxygen on aquatic resources. Sea level rise modeling and visualization using high resolution remotely sensed data.Loren L. surface water.

NC. April 19-21. 2010. L. Bradley. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2010-XXXX. Proceedings of the Alabama Water Environment Association Conference. and Bales. Proceedings of the 2010 USGS Modeling Conference. South Carolina. C. Iowa Highway Research Board Report TR-533. April 27. G. North Carolina. J. Effects of Hydropower Flow Rescheduling on Dissolved Oxygen in the Roanoke River.A.. L. September 14-16. 2.L.. March 8-9.. 2009... Wehmeyer.. Application to the Mobile River of Lessons Learned from Flow and Water Quality Modeling in the Lower Roanoke River. Richmond. Fish and Wildlife Service national wildlife refuges in the Southeastern USA. J. L.S. 106 p. in-press. L. Relation Between Flow and Dissolved Oxygen in the Roanoke River Between Roanoke Rapids and Jamesville. North Carolina. 2009. A.M. GA. Wagner. 2009.L. Evaluation of design flood frequency methods for Iowa streams. in-press.. Orange Beach... Calhoun. ..R.M. A. J.Selected publications 2009-2010 Wehmeyer... T.D. Denver. 2009. L. 2010.. June 10.D. 2010 [abs]. March 30-31. and Garcia. J.S. 2009. L.D. 2009. Wehmeyer. 2009. North Carolina. Wehmeyer. L.. Virginia. Wehmeyer. 2010. Nov. North Carolina.. Wehmeyer. 1998–2005: U. Hydrologic and land-use/land-cover metrics used in ecological assessments of six U. composite models can come through…eventually..D. Effect of hydropower peaking and floodplain drainage on instream dissolved oxygen in the Roanoke River. Proceedings of the 2009 Georgia Water Resources Conference.D. February 21-25.D. L.. 2010. A.16.. Ecohydrology..M.. 2005-2009: U. Colorado. L. Alabama [abs].. and Weirich. 42 p.. L. J. 2009.C. and Cuffney. 2010 [abs]. Bales. XX p.S. J. F. In-Stream Flow and Floodplain Inundation Modeling in the Lower Roanoke River Corridor. L. Wehmeyer. When hydrologic monitoring meets complex modeling needs. Proceedings of the 2010 North Carolina Water Resources Research Institute (WRRI) Conference. Relation between hydropower dam releases and downstream dissolved oxygen in a coastal ecosystem. Virginia [abs]. 10 p.L.R.L. Bales. North Carolina [abs]. March 8-10..M. 2009. 2010 [abs]. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering.. L. Proceedings of the 2010 Land Grant and Sea Grant National Water Conference. Hilton Head. Raleigh.. J.. Athens.and 3-d hydrodynamic and water quality modeling of North Carolina’s Roanoke River and floodplain. Wehmeyer. Bales. Wehmeyer. Wehmeyer. Chen.. A. in-press.. Effect of historic land cover change on composite runoff curve number estimation in Iowa. D. Richmond. 1997-2007. Proceedings of the 2009 Annual American Water Works Association-Water Environment Association Conference. L. 8 p. Wehmeyer. A. F. and Weirich. and Garcia.L. 1832-2001. North Carolina. Proceedings of the 2010 Virginia Water Conference. North Carolina. Bales.. Proceedings of the 2009 Virginia Water Conference. Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Forests and Water in a Changing Environment. Garcia. 2010 [abs]. 1997-2007. Garcia. and Bales. Powell. Effect of land cover change on runoff curve number estimation in Iowa. 1-. L. 000:000-000. Raleigh. Buell. 2009. Raleigh. 2009.. and Wehmeyer. Wehmeyer. 000:000-000. Simulated Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Effects of Dam Releases and Permitted Discharges on an Estuarine-Influence Portion of the Roanoke River. 2009.. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2009-5238. Weirich.. Wehmeyer. L. F. Effect of historic land cover change on runoff curve number estimation in Iowa.

D. W.M. TN. Geological Survey National Wetlands Research Center 700 Cajundome Blvd. T. Smith. Biology RESEARCH INTERESTS Ecosystem analysis and modeling with a special emphasis on tree-ring applications. Lafayette. Northeast Louisiana University. Listing of model acronyms and function: ATCHBAS: Atchafalaya Basin Flood Inundation Model CONGFLO: Congaree Swamp Floodplain Inundation Model CONGFOR: Congaree Swamp Forest Landscape Simulation Model FORICO: Gap succession model for tropical montane rain forest HURACAN: Hurricane windspeed and wind vector simulation model HURASIM: Hurricane tracking and windspeed visualization model INVASIV: Invasive Species Spread and Hurricane Circulation Model MANGRO: Mangrove Forest Succession Model SELVA: Spatially Explicit Landscape Vegetation Analysis model SLOPE: Sea Level Overland Proportional Elevation model SLRRP: Sea Level Rise Rectification Program model WETLANDS: Wetlands hydrology and habitat simulation model SELECTED PUBLICATIONS Doyle. LA 1976.. University of Tennessee. Robblee. 1983. Monroe.. fax-8586 Email: tom_doyle@usgs. Wind damage effects of Hurricane Andrew on mangrove communities of southwest Florida.S. Ecology . role of natural and anthropogenic disturbance and climate change on forest structure and diversity of coastal ecosystems of the southeastern United States and Caribbean regions.CURRICULUM VITAE THOMAS W. Knoxville. SPATIAL SIMULATION MODELS AND DECISION-SUPPORT TOOLS created for environmental assessment needs and ecosystem management of Department of Interior trust lands and species. TN.B.gov EDUCATION . 1980.D. of Coastal Research 18: 159-168. . University of Tennessee.S. DOYLE. T.S. Knoxville.. Ecology .Ph. Ph. and landscape simulation models. LA 70506 (337) 266-8647. CURRENT POSITION: WORK ADDRESS: Supervisory Ecologist U. J.. J. 1995. B. and M. forest succession..

W. Doyle. 46 p. 2007.6. Hurricane frequency and landfall distribution for coastal wetlands of the gulf coast. Turner.H.W. Dahdouh-Guebas. in Ning. 211-221..H. and Abdollahi. N.W. 2003. . Ch. Climatic Change and Socioeconomic Impacts: A Current Perspective. USA. Modeling flood plain hydrology and forest productivity of Congaree Swamp. Ch. In G.Y. Doyle.W. Conner. A. Springer. and K. T.. and G. Modeling mangrove forest migration along the southwest coast of Florida under climate change. 2003. Fontalvo-Herazo. Doyle. Doyle. Berger. 2010. Doyle. pp. Journal of Coastal Research 18:354-364. pp. K.Doyle. Day. pgs. Duke.H. J. K.W. pp325.. NY. K. T.R. Predicting coastal retreat in the Florida Big Bend region of the gulf coast under climate change induced sea-level rise Ning. and Abdollahi. V. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2009– 5130.. T.. Pulwarty (eds. and Twilley. T. N.H. Doyle. Turner.E.W.H.W... N. W.H.S. 1995. and From. Doyle. T..67-80. Ecology of Tidal Freshwater Forested Wetlands of the Southeastern United States. South Carolina: U. F... Diaz and R.. Vulnerability of coastal wetlands in the Southeastern United States: climate change research results...A. R. 2009. Z. C.C. Girod.. T. Z. B.). and Books. T. 411-446.S. 2003. H. editors. Doyle. IN: H. T. D. USGS Biological Resources Division Biological Science Report USGS/BRD/BSR-1998-0002. T. Structural impact of Hurricane Andrew on forested wetlands of the Atchafalaya Basin in coastal Louisiana. Integrated assessment of the climate change impacts on the Gulf Coast Region: Baton Rouge. R. W. GRCCC and LSU Graphic Services. 7. La.W. pp. W. T. R. GRCCC and LSU Graphic Services.. 500 pp. Aquatic Botany 89: 260-274. Vairin.W. La. Girod. E. Advances and limitations of individual-based models to analyze and predict dynamics of mangrove forests: a review. and Biagas. Hurricanes.. J. New York.. Piou. 1997..R.F. 2009. D. Modeling global change effects on coastal forests. Forest Ecology and Management 259: 770-777. Keeland. Integrated assessment of the climate change impacts on the Gulf Coast Region: Baton Rouge. NY. T. Rivera-Monroy. Guntenspergen and B.. Gorham. Doyle... 1998. U. Predicting the retreat and migration of tidal forests along the northern Gulf of Mexico under sea-level rise. Springer. W. 111-128.. Koedam. 2008. G. Doyle. Doyle. Hildenbrandt. M... Conner. 201-209..L. Westview Press... U. Krauss..E..M.W. Wetlands 29: 35–43. L. R. Mehlig. T.. Krauss.A. Johnson. The frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes and their influence on the structure of south Florida mangrove communities. 2003. 1992-1997. M..

B. J. S. United States Geological Survey. Illinois School of Public Health. R. U.T. http://hdl. Gerard McMahon.handle.. Fax: 919. Multilevel regression models describing regional patterns of invertebrate and algal responses to urbanization across the United States. Research Interests Water quality modeling... Lee. Refereed Publications Kashuba. Northwestern University. 88p. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2009-5243. minor in Psychology. eds. T.F. uncertainty characterization Publications A. North Carolina Nicholas School of the Environment. Raleigh. G. Division of Environmental Sciences and Policy Ph.571. and Waite. K.571. Qian.. I.Roxolana O. Alameddine. Lee.. Emily Bernhardt. Bayesian methods to characterize uncertainty in predictive modeling of the effect of urbanization on aquatic ecosystems. Song Qian. J.. U. Y. Thomas Cuffney. Qian. and Darius Semmens. Committee: Peter Scheff (advisor)....F. Illinois B. R. McMahon. Alameddine.. in Chemistry with biochemistry focus. I. Roxolana Oresta. Song S. Combining expert knowledge with data to develop a Bayesian network describing the impact of urbanization on aquatic macroinvertebrate communities in the southeast United States. T. May. Duke University. T. Cha. June 2001. responses of Benthic Macroinvertebrates to Environmental Changes Associated with Urbanization in Nine Metropolitan Areas of the Conterminous United States. R. McMahon.A. and Cuffney. (In review) Kashuba. Durham. Evanston..D.T. 3916 Sunset Ridge Road. Coles.4088.. rkashuba@usgs. K. Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Division M.4041. environmental management decisions. Gerritsen. Cuffney. NC 27607 Phone: 919.S. May 2010. dissertation.gov Duke University..S. Dissertation title: Bayesian methods to characterize uncertainty in predictive modeling of the effect of urbanization on aquatic ecosystems. in Environmental Science. Thesis title: Characterization of Short-term Fine Particulate Matter Measurement in Region 5. G.. B.F.. R. September 8-11. and McMahon..A. Ph. (In press) Kashuba. R. Serap Erdal. University of Illinois at Chicago... T. T. In Webb.. Reckhow. (In review) Kashuba.. Richard M. Cha. Parameterizing the Biological Condition Gradient in the northeast United States using a Bayesian network approach. Committee: Kenneth Reckhow (advisor). XXp. Kashuba Education Environmental Modeler.. Multilevel Hierarchical Modeling of Benthic Macroinvertebrate Responses to Urbanization in Nine Metropolitan Areas across the Conterminous United States. Cuffney. Proceedings of the Third Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds. Y. statistical methods.S. Cuffney. in Statistical Water Quality Modeling. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2010-XXXX. G. Kashuba. J.net/10161/2366 Cuffney. S. Robert Anderson. Page 1 .. and Davies.D. Chicago. I. 2008. Reckhow. Kashuba. 2010. August 2003.

Kashuba. North Carolina). Roxolana. Roxolana. Northeast US Bayesian network urban driver expert elicitation. Geological Survey (2008-present) Research Hydrologist: Quantifying the effect of urbanization on aquatic stream biota (macroinvertebrates. Kashuba. North Carolina). and metabolic breakdown of pesticides of varying acidity. U. 2010. S. expert judgment) to predict integrated pesticide fate in various application scenarios. Massachusetts).. and fish) at multiple scales using innovative hierarchical multilevel techniques and Bayesian networks. Reviewed pesticide environmental fate studies for scientific validity. Gerritsen. Reckhow. Kashuba.S. Critically evaluated and peer reviewed risk assessment-related work products. Interpreting ecosystem response in terms predictive probability of meeting water quality criteria due to urban impairment. Modeled hydrolytic. Duke University (2006-2008) Research Assistant: Developed hierarchal Bayesian model (using interrelated data. Kashuba. U. Colorado). G. Guest lecturer for Water Quality Modeling (ENV335) at Duke University (Durham. Presented at Maine-EUSE-EPA-Duke BCG (Biological Condition Gradient) Project Meeting (Portland. and mobility. Roxolana. Using a Bayesian Network Approach to Model the Effects of Urbanization on the Condition of Benthic Macroinvertebrate Assemblages in the Northeast U. Developing New Approaches to Model the Effects of Urbanization. and Southeast US modeling process. Kashuba. logic. Negotiated risk mitigation measures via communication of scientific inferences to decision-making audiences. A Bayesian network example: Parameterizing the Biological Condition Gradient in the northeast United States. Expert elicitation. 2009. Bayesian networks. and Davies. Roxolana. Model can be expanded to predict survival distributions resulting from different management decisions and variable environmental conditions. Presented at Massachusetts Water Science Center EUSE Modeling Project Collaboration and Data Solicitation Meeting (Northborough. Environmental Protection Agency (2004-2006) Environmental Scientist (GS-12): Synthesized multiple scientific sources of information (lab studies. and parameter tiers) describing larval survival in a river in time and space. as Defined by the Biological Condition Gradient. Research Experience Aquatic Ecosystem Statistical Modeling.. Developing a method for parameterizing the Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) for Effect of Urbanization on Stream Ecosystems (EUSE) dataset. discharge) and multiple. Expert elicitation: what is it and when do you use it. models. T. then sampled from the joint distribution of coefficients and error terms to verify model form. S. Characterized environmental exposure as part of an ecological risk assessment process. McMahon. Pesticide Aquatic Fate Modeling and Ecological Risk Assessment. 2009. photolytic. incorporating expert elicitation and Bayesian uncertainty characterization. Bayesian Network Overview. Presented at Research Triangle Institute Water Group Seminar (Research Triangle Park. K.. 2009. Maryland). J. 2009.S.Roxolana O. different error terms. Presented at Northeast Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) Bayesian Network Urban Expert Meeting (Baltimore.S. Roxolana. Kashuba Invited Presentations Kashuba. 2010. North Carolina). Guest lecturer for Reckhow Water Quality Statistics Laboratory Meeting (Durham.. process.F. Statistical Water Quality Modeling and Decision Analysis. Qian. Presented at Seventh National Monitoring Conference (Denver. solubility.. Roxolana. Cuffney. Maine). Kashuba. Simulated data sets. Page 2 . as affected by covariate data (temperature. and coherence. Roxolana. algae. 2009.

Biology B. Dept. Hawaii Sea Grant 2004. 5. V. G. BioScience. and the Usumacinta-Grijalva delta. Mexico. Kemp. EPA Aquatic Ecology and Ecosystems 2001 and 2002. ISBN: 978-0-444-53103-2. J. In: G. 81(8): 2331:2349. Reyes E. P. J.F. Brinson. J. E.W. Coastal Wetlands: An Integrated Ecosystem Approach. Elsevier. Estuarine. Coastal and Shelf Science. 4. A.M. 5. Reyes E.ENRIQUE REYES a. East Carolina University. Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico.P. Landscape Simulation Modeling: A spatially explicit. Landscape Modeling of the Mississippi Delta. 52(4): 357-365. Mex. F. 2009. p.F. J. 1994. Wetlands Ecology and Management. M. J. Day.M. White. US Global Change Research Program 1999. 2000. Publications (from a total of 30) 1.W. dynamic approach. NOAA Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research 2010. 6. 2002. Kemp. YanezArancibia. Day Jr. Chesapeake Biological Laboratory. Perillo.R.E. Reyes E..W. New York. White. Appointments 2005. Louisiana State University. Habitat changes in the Mississippi Delta: future scenarios and alternatives.P. Baltzer Science Publishers.. Kemp. Ecosystems. 2004 and 2010. Wetland Landscape Spatial Models. 1983 Biological Oceanography M. Associate Professor. J. G.H. Elsevier Press. Elsevier Press. Wolanski. S. In: R. Ecological Modelling. Springer. 2. G. E. J.present. Environmental Modeling and Assessment. Springer. Forest Ecology and Management. Chap. Martin. Martin. Reyes E. 2005. Aravamuthan.. Costanza and A. Ocean & Coastal Management 47 (2004) 693–708 3.. c. of Biology. 1992 Landscape Ecology Post-Doc. Ecological Modelling. D.). USA. Springer-Verlag. d. (eds. California Sea Grant 2001. Synergistic Activities Ad hoc reviewer for: Ecological Economics. Day... 2003. Ecology. Zarate-Lomeli. D. 119-142. 2005. NOAA Coastal Ocean Program in Coastal Hypoxia Research Program. Reyes E. Profesional Preparation Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana. M. 885. Sanchez-Gil. Landscape Modeling of Coastal Habitat Change in the Mississippi Delta. J. D. Lara-Dominguez.P.L. 1995 b.L. S. Day. 74: 256-276. Day. Reyes.). Voinov (eds. Modeling Approach for Fish Migration across a Landscape: the regional organism exchange (ROE) model. 1 . 1988 Marine Sciences Ph.W.L. Cahoon. Sklar. Assessing coastal management plans using watershed spatial models for the Mississippi delta. A. M. Environmental Management.W. Elsevier Press. Martin. Review Panelist for: NSF 1999. Mashriqui. H.F.

John. Ohio State University. Sant Carles de la Ràpita. Louisiana State University.D. (1999). (2002). BIOL7300 Landscape Ecology. Martha Sutula Ph. Dept. Ph. Cntr Ecological Engineering. (ii) Graduate and Postdoctoral Advisors Martin Merino-Ibarra. advisor). Visser. Susanne Hoeppner Ph. Caroline Quidort MURP UNO (2006). Spain. Coastal Ecology Institute. John W. Mexico. Ph. of South Carolina. (2000).S. Robert Costanza. Jay.W. Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana. (2001). Taragona. Perez. James. Haley Blakeman MURP UNO (2006).D.S. Ana Laura Lara Ph. Southern California Coastal Water Research Project. Mexico. Fisheries Ministry of Barbados. Ecosystems of Coastal Cities. Reed.D. & Geoph. Louisiana State University. MS ECU (2009). David Kunz. University of Maryland System. Ioannis. J. Center for Coastal. UNO (2004). Kemp. BIOL6850 & BIOL6994. Institute of Ecology. LSU (2004).D. 2 . G. Texas A&M University. Inst. Institut de Recerce I Tecnologia Agroalimentaries. UNO (2004). Environmental Engnr Dept. S. Ecosistemes Aquàtics.Paul.D. D.. Certificate Course: “Ecología Regional”.D. Tanaporn Sakulpitakphon M. Geol. BIOL4320 “Ecological Responses to Global Climate Change”. Certificate Course: “Ecología de Sistemas”. Estuarine and Environmental Resources. LSU (2007). Robert Lane Ph. BIOL6992 Ecological Modeling. USGS. e. Collaborator & Other Affiliations (i) Collaborators Morris. Certificate Course: “Manejo Integrado de la Zona Costera”. Louisiana State University. (Postdoctoral Sponsor). Emily Hyfield M. Xalapa. Davis. Arturo Bernal MS. UNO. Argentina. UNO. Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (Master’s advisor). Coastal Ecology Institute. Ecological Dimensions of Coastal Zone Management. Martin. San Francisco State Univ. LSU (2003). Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana. (Ph.D. South Florida Water Management District. Callaway.(2000). (iii) Thesis Advisor and Postgraduate-Scholar Sponsor Total number of postgraduate advisees (8). Jay Martin.S. Ohio State University.. Lorna Inniss Ph. Giorgiu. Rebecca Murphey M. (2000). Bahia Blanca. Louisiana State University. CRM6300. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Brian C. Day. National Wetlands Research Center. Day.Teaching: BIOL 6128. Univ. Certificate Course: “Ecology of Estuarine and Coastal Tropical Ecosystems”. Denise. Special Programs. Jenneke. Carlos Coronado. Systems Ecology. de Ecología.

L. (2) statistical and dynamical downscaling of atmospheric models. University of Arizona. (3) hydrologic forecasting.H. USGS.cr. Use of regional climate model output for hydrologic simulations: Journal of Hydrometeorology. New Jersey District Office.H.usgs. . and other hydrologic components. climate. L. L. and land use on streamflow. 1986-1989: Hydrologist. and Ayers. Hay. Gutowski. G.. Colorado.. and Leavesley.php for a complete list) Hay. Specific objectives are to investigate watershed hydrologic processes to: (1) improve understanding of watershed system dynamics. Hay.J.. Clark. Tufts University. USGS. 2002.M. 2003. M. Denver. and (4) model calibration.. Clark. 3. Leavesley.E. (2) develop computer models to simulate and evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation. Boulder.W. Z. 1986 BS Geology.A. and E.L. University of Colorado.L. Pan. Recent Publications (see http://wwwbrr. (3) develop procedures and techniques to estimate model parameters using measurable watershed and climatic characteristics.P..E. 36(2). Medford.P. Massachusetts.S. Denver.. 1982 Relevant Appointments 2007-present: Project Chief of the Modeling of Watershed Systems research group. Takle. Tucson. Arizona. 97(D3). USGS. Colorado. 2000. and M. Use of statistically and dynamically downscaled atmospheric model output for hydrologic simulations in three mountainous basins in the western United States: Journal of Hydrology. D. Use of weather types to disaggregate general circulation model predictions: Journal of Geophysical Research. Wilby. Wilby. M. Past research objectives included: (1) spatial and temporal distribution of climate variables for hydrologic modeling. R. Relevant Work Experience Research has the broad goal of understanding precipitation-runoff processes and developing improved hydrologic models.E. G.. R. 1992. National Research Program. G.E. and (4) develop techniques for data integration. A Comparison of Delta Change and Downscaled GCM Scenarios for Three Mountainous Basins in the United States: Journal of American Water Resources. National Research Program. Colorado. 1989-2007: Research Hydrologist. Wolock.J. W. Arritt.. McCabe. 282. sediment yield.gov/projects/SW_MoWS/pubs/hay_pubs/hayPubs. project member of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling research group. Hay. 1996 MS Hydrology.LAUREN ELIZABETH HAY Professional Preparation PhD Geography. L. R.

2010.E. Clark. and W. Leavesley.. and Hay.E. Pagowski.P. Integrated Watershed Scale Response to Climate Change for Selected basins Across the United States: Water Resources Impact. M. 11(2).. Hay. One-way Coupling of an Atmospheric and a Hydrologic Model in Colorado: Journal of Hydrometeorology. 2009. Step-Wise. 42(4).L. G. Jr.. and Hay.. M. 2006.P. and Risley.. Viger. and Umemoto. Oregon: Journal of American Water Resources.H. J.. Hay. L.. G. Clark.L. McCabe. L. 2004. R. S.E. Markstrom. Clark.P.J. Gutowski.. Multiple-Objective Calibration Of A Hydrologic Model For A SnowmeltDominated Basin: Journal of American Water Resources. M.. 2006b.. 7(4.. Use of Medium-Range Numerical Weather prediction Model Output to Produce Forecasts of Streamflow: Journal of Hydrometeorology.. L. Leavesley.E.J.P.J..E. M..Clark.. L. Hay. G. 5(1).C. M. S.H. M. L. . Markstrom. Reducing streamflow forecast uncertainty: application and qualitative assessment of the Upper Klamath River Basin.

Caribbean mangroves adjust to rising sea-level through biotic controls on change in soil elevation. Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. Drew University. R. Estuaries and Coasts 29(6A):889-898. a senior research ecologist with the U. Hensel PF. McKee. and J. In: J. has more than 30 years experience investigating wetland plant ecology. L. Beltsville. D.). Estimating shallow subsidence in microtidal salt marshes of the southeastern United States: Kaye and Barghoorn revisited. 2006. Plant Ecology. Kjerfve. Ecology 83: 2869-2877. Botany. wetland accretionary processes. Bobbink. R. 1975. Nietch. Volume 190. 2002. 1995.S. J. Reed. University of Maryland. Bldg 308. Day.. McKee KL. Global Ecology and Biogeography 16:545-556. Pages 271-292. Marine Geology 128: 1-9. which is being used in 23 countries by 70 coastal scientists. R. A review of major storm impacts on coastal wetland elevation. and the impact of current wetland management and restoration practices on elevation dynamics and wetland stability.NAME Donald R.. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Sundareshwar. He and his colleagues have developed a global network of elevation monitoring sites using standard measurement protocols (SET and marker horizons) on coastal wetlands to give an advance warning of change. MD 20705 EDUCATION BA. R. Whigham (Eds. P. These developments are being used to determine the vulnerability of coastal wetlands to global change (e. and new elevation monitoring technology to improve our understanding of subsurface process influences on elevation. FIVE RELEVANT PUBLICATIONS Cahoon DR. Ecological Studies. Cahoon. Feller. Coastal wetland vulnerability to relative sea-level rise: wetland elevation trends and process controls. and has published his findings in > 130 research papers and reports. . the critical driving forces and subsurface processes controlling elevation for a wide range of wetland types. Cahoon. MS. sea-level rise and storms). C. 1972. T. A. Responses of coastal wetlands to rising sea level. 10300 Baltimore Ave. Spencer T. 2010 PRESENT ADDRESS U. Morris. W. B. Cahoon and I. Saintilan N. S. D. He has developed a research approach for measuring wetland elevation dynamics (surface elevation tables (SET) used in conjunction with artificial soil marker horizons). Cahoon. Geological Survey. PhD. Jr. Wetlands and Natural Resource Management.. University of Maryland. and D. V..g. Reed DJ. c/o BARC-East. and D. D. new predictive models to determine the long-term potential for submergence of coastal wetlands. 2007. B. J. and wetland restoration and management. K. 2006. C. Verhoeven. Cahoon Date: July 13. T. Beltman. Geological Survey. 1982 RELEVANT EXPERIENCE Don Cahoon. D. T. R. Plant Ecology.

Ecological Engineering 12: 189-205 Erwin. SYNERGISTIC ACTIVITIES Co-edited a book titled “Coastal Wetlands: an integrated ecosystem approach” with G. 1997. R. Lynch. A. Rybczyk. NOAA. R. Current Topics in Wetland Biogeochemistry 3: 72-88. NPS. Brinson. USA. Charles Roman. USGS. D. 260-261. June 24. Estimating the potential for submergence for two subsiding wetlands in the Mississippi River delta. USGS. M. with EPA. USGS. F. James Grace. USGS. NPS. and P. Karen McKee. D. Estuaries 25: 985-998. M. 2006. Gutierrez)..FIVE OTHER SIGNIFICANT PUBLICATIONS Nuttle... USFWS. 1999. Surface elevation dynamics in vegetated Spartina marshes versus unvegetated tidal ponds along the mid-Atlantic coast. D. Estuaries 29: 96-106. Sara Stevens. John Brock. W. Day. J. Tom Reiss. M.. preparing a report on sea-level rise effects on tidal wetlands of Maryland COLLABORATORS Denise Reed. Cahoon. Eos 78(25): 257. NOAA and other USGS authors (Anderson. Processes that maintain coastal wetlands in spite of rising sea level. Cahoon. and M. and J. Prosser. Brinson. 2002. USGS. David Nemerson. Cahoon. C. Tom Smith. UNO. . Perillo. Hensel. Wolanski. Member of Scientific and Technical Working Group of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change. The influence of surface and shallow subsurface soil processes on wetland elevation: a synthesis.. Sanders. R. J. R. Susan Adamowicz. J. Jr. and D. Williams. and D. Cahoon.1 report on sea-level rise and its potential effects on coastal systems. Ford. Reed. D. E. with implications to water birds. and D. Greg Steyer. A lead author on CCSP SAP 4. NAIB. 1999. USGS. Restoring marsh elevation in a rapidly-subsiding salt marsh by thin-layer deposition of dredged material. et al. W. publisher is Elsevier. Cahoon. 1997. Philippe Hensel. Thieler. G. M.

Research Triangle Park. Cornell University (1976) Post-Baccalaureate Studies. and effects such as fire distribution and severity. Research includes the development of sea level rise modeling and risk assessments. Forests to Environmental Change”. . Establish a comprehensive science assessment program for the US National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program's Southern Commercial Forest Research Cooperative investigating the effects of atmospheric pollutants on forests.Robert A. Fax: 919-549-4665 Email: r. extent. North Carolina State University SPECIAL QUALIFICATIONS: Develop and implement science assessments for the US Department of Defense. SPECIFIC WORK/TASK EXPERIENCE: North Carolina State University.S. Mickler Program Manager Alion Science and Technology. Institute of Ecosystem Studies. “Impact of Air Pollutants on Southern Pine Forests”. Department of Forestry. Inc. 1986-present New York Botanical Garden Cary Arboretum. Major accomplishments include the coediting and co-authoring of a science assessment book published by Springer-Verlag entitled. Millbrook. 1000 Park Forty Plaza. North Carolina 27713 Phone: 919-406-2104. the US Department of Interior. and the US EPA and USDA Forest Service in the Global Change Research Program investigating the impact of atmospheric and climatic change to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. “The Productivity and Sustainability of Southern Forest Ecosystems in a Changing Environment” and “Responses of Northern U. NC. and serving as author/editor for two special issues compilations of terrestrial carbon research for Elsevier’s Journal of Environmental Pollution and Springer-Verlag’s journal Environmental Management. 1986-Present Alion Science and Technology Inc.mickler@alionscience. Develop and implement the foliar nutrients and toxins bioindicator for the US EPA Environmental Monitoring Assessment Program (EMAP-Forest) for the determination of current status. application and validation of improved aircraft or satellite-based remote sensing applications for quantifying fuel types. Adjunct Faculty. changes. and the development. fire hazard. Vassar College. fire behavior. fuel condition and loading. NY. Major publication accomplishments include: the coediting and co-authoring of a science assessment books published by Springer-Verlag entitled.com EDUCATION: Bachelors of Science. terrestrial carbon budgets. and trends in the condition of our nation's ecological resources on regional and national scales. the use of GIS and remote sensing technologies linked to forest physiological models to examine forest productivity at the local to national scale. Suite 200 Durham. 19771986..

Mickler (eds. (Eds. pp. Asheville.. In: R.A. Mickler. Mickler. forest Ecosystems. Mickler. New York. Mickler. Heath. pp.A. Proceedings RMRS-P-46. U.) Impact of Air Pollutants on southern Pine Forest. Forest carbon trends in the southern United States. Mickler.) Responses of Northern U. Earnhardt. and Frost. J. Mickler.S. Project # 08-410. T.A. 52:174-185. Birdsey.. 2002.. J. USDA Forest Service. Springer-Verlag. Welch.PROFESSIONAL MEMBERSHIPS/LICENSES: American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing Ecological Society of America The Association for Fire Ecology North Carolina Division of Forest Resources Certified Prescribed Burner HONORS AND AWARDS USDA Forest Service Commendations US EPA Commendations SELECTED PUBLICATIONS: Mickler. Pollution 116:S7-S16. R. Oxford. VA. and Pikkarainen. Southern Research Station. Springer-Verlag. Cook. Percy. NC. management. Forests to Environmental Change.F. The fire environment-innovations. J.A. In: R..S. 2007. R. Sea Level Rise Risk Assessment for DoD Coastal Installations.. R. C. 1-74. R. Chappelka. S. Reintroduction of Prescribed Fire in Coastal Plain Ecosystems to Reduce Wildland Fire Risk. R.A. Arlington. and J.A. S. R.S. Chapter 33. and J..). Southern forest ecosystems in a changing chemical and physical environment. Birdsey. 26-30 March 2007.. Environ. Presettlement fire regime and vegetation mapping in southeastern coastal plain forest ecosystems. Mickler. Southern Pine Forests of North America. Coastal Management (In Press). Ecological Studies 118. Bailey. In: Fox S.A. Ecological Studies 128. Mickler.A.. Assoc.Hom. comps. Air Waste Manage. Department of Defense Legacy Resource Management Program. 2010. C. and J.A. Moore. W. 2000. UK. 2009. .A. Modeling and Spatially Distributing Forest Net Primary Production at the Regional Scale.A. 2010. p. Sea level rise risk assessment for North Carolina coastal ecosystems.1-639. Department of Agriculture. K. VA. 2004. 2006. Hom.) The Productivity and Sustainability of Southern Forest Ecosystems in a Changing Environment. Ecological Studies 139.. R. Mickler and S. pp. Department of Defense Legacy Resource Management Program. A.. General Technical Report SRS–75.. In: Karnosky.E. Global Change and Forests in the New Millennium. Welch. Welch. 345-358.. R. W.D. 2002. Mitigation strategies for reducing sea level rise impacts to coastal ecosystems. S. and D. Rocky Mountain Research Station. Moore. CO. 1-12. and policy.S. and R. R. Heath. Forest Service. Fort Collins. R.Hom (Eds.A. Mickler. A. McNulty. 1996. Elsevier Science Ltd.A. Arlington. Summary of Prospective Global Change Impacts on Northern U.J. Mickler. 1998. 383-394.A. and L. Regional estimation of current and future forest biomass. and D. A. Springer-Verlag.H. Journal of Coastal Research (In Press). Birdsey. and L. D. R.A. Responses of forests in the eastern US to air pollution and climate change. 2003.. Project # 05-252.G. and J. T. 8 maps. Smith. J. Air Pollution.A.A.S. Earnhardt. Mickler R. R. NY . Fox (Eds. Mickler. Simpson. R. J. and D.. pp. New York. In: Butler. Destin Florida. R.A.

Estuarine Reserves Division.538. Project Principal. University of Delaware 2004-2005 Graduate Research Assistant. $30. NC 27948 bboutin@tnc. University of North Carolina at Wilmington Grants Received 2009-2011 2009 2005-2008 Southeast Aquatic Resources Partnership-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Hydrologic restoration of coastal wetlands on North Carolina’s Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula. Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management. Project Principal. $185. Office of Graduate Studies 2004 Marian R.000.org. biomass. North Carolina Chapter 2008-2009 Marine Biologist II. National Ocean Service. Kill Devil Hills. Boutin Climate Change Adaptation Project Director The Nature Conservancy Outer Banks Office. North Carolina Division of Marine Fisheries 2005-2008 Graduate Research Fellow. 252-441-2525 Professional preparation University of Delaware University of North Carolina at Wilmington Marine Biosciences Marine Biology PhD BS 2008 2003 Employment 2009-present Climate Change Adaptation Project Director. Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program: Building ecosystem resilience to climate change and sea-level rise through restoration of an estuarine habitat complex. University of Delaware. growth. University of Delaware. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Evaluation of essential fish habitat for juvenile weakfish (Cynoscion regalis): Comparisons of habitat-specific density.500. Okie Fellowship. University of North Carolina at Wilmington Awards and Fellowships 2006 Graduate Student Travel Award. University of Delaware 2003 Research Technician. University of North Carolina at Wilmington 2002-2003 Intern Researcher. Wildlife Conservation Society: Coastal adaptation and wetland restoration on Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge. The Nature Conservancy. $47. $65. production. College of Marine and Earth Studies 2002-2003 NSF Cross-disciplinary Research at Undergraduate Institutions Internship. Pending 2010 .Brian P. and food habits in tidal tributary and nearshore habitats of Delaware Bay. Project Principal. Principal Investigator.500.

high-bank shoreline. Estuaries and Coasts. growth. $36. Invited member scientific advisory panels 2009-present Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program 2009-present Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Partnership 2009-present National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Ecosystem Effects of Sea Level Rise 2009-present Northern North Carolina Oyster Restoration Workgroup . Publications Boutin BP. Co-Project Principal. and maritime salt shrubs along a high energy.000. and food habits. submerged aquatic vegetation.613.2010 2010 NASA. Targett TE (in prep) Functional value of tidal tributary and nearshore habitats as nurseries for juvenile weakfish Cynoscion regalis in Delaware Bay: biomass density. Boutin BP. Southeast. CoPrincipal Investigator.S. $900. Targett TE (in prep) Fish and blue crab assemblage structure in marsh creeks of the Delaware Coastal Bays. Estuaries and Coasts. Carbon Cycle Science: Quantification of functional responses & transition thresholds of coastal ecosystems to climate change and sea level rise for adaptation and mitigation in the U. production. coastal wetlands. The Nature Conservancy-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Demonstrating the value of natural communities for shoreline protection: restoration of oyster reefs.

NC. Manteo. Fish and Wildlife Biologist.gov EDUCATION M. Raleigh.Present Supervisory Wildlife Biologist. Partners for Fish and Wildlife Program. Manitoba. Raleigh. NC.2001 2001.S. NC. in Automotive Technology (1988) Southern Maine Technical College.CURRICULUM VITAE JOHN D. Wildlife Biologist. Maryland” B.1994 2003.Present Adjunct Professor. ME PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE 1986 Research Associate. in Wildlife Management (1986) University of Maine. Marksville. Clemson University. Portland. STANTON III Supervisory Wildlife Biologist. North Carolina State University. Columbia. Roseburg. Division of Migratory Birds. LA. Fish and Wildlife Service South Atlantic Migratory Bird Coordination Office Columbia. . Lake Ophelia National Wildlife Refuge. Bureau of Land Management. Wildlife Biologist. NC. ME Assoc. U. PROFESSIONAL APPOINTMENTS 2009. S. Delta Waterfowl and Wetlands Research Station. CANADA Graduate Assistant. 1994. Department of Forestry and Natural Resources.S. Orono.2003 Wildlife Biologist. NC 27925(252)796-2400. OR. South Carolina. John_Stanton@fws. in Wildlife Biology. USFWS.1990 1991 1992.S. 1988. Swan Quarter. minor in Poultry Science (1991) North Carolina State University. NC Thesis: "Summer survival and recruitment of hand-reared female mallards released on Remington Farms. Mattamuskeet National Wildlife Refuge.

Distinguished Service Award. 14pp. C. April 2006. . Wetland restoration opportunities for private landowners in eastern North Carolina. Brewer. SELECTED PUBLICATIONS H. Am. E. North Carolina Conservation Initiative. Ducks Unlimited. D. D. Lonsdorf. Shepherdstown.S. Stanton III. F. T. North Carolina Chapter of The Wildlife Society (2008-2009) Certified Wildlife Biologist (1996) -The Wildlife Society Association of American Field Ornithologists AWARDS 2010 2007 2005 Regional Director’s Honor Award for Outstanding Performance. Numerous U. Durbian. Mark Seamans11. A. Maryland. J. Lancia. E. J. J. Fish and Wildlife Service. U. January 2008. C.. Stanton III. National Conservation Training Center. Wildlife Society Bulletin 20: 182-188. and S. Survival and reproduction of game-farm. 597pp. Brown. Strategic Habitat Conservation Team (2007-2008) Executive Board. Runge. Lyons. Laskowski1. and M. Abstract in the Proceedings of International Conference “Hydrology and Management of Forested Wetlands”. Coppen. Stanton. King. female mallards at Remington Farms. Soutiere and R. Milliken.S. A Case Study Final Report: Application of Structured Decision Making to Assess Multiple Scale Monitoring Needs for Waterbird Management. D. J.C. D. J. Leger. Jones. 1992. Fish and Wildlife Service internal wildlife habitat management plans and biological program review reports for individual refuges units of the National Wildlife Refuge System throughout the Southeast region. U. New Bern. A.PROFESSIONAL SERVICE Co-Team Leader. T. S.S. Regional Director’s Honor Award for Outstanding Performance. Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers.S. WV. NC. Fish and Wildlife Service’s eastern NC/ southeastern VA U.

A Fish and Wildlife Coordination Act Report. C. 57 pp. 1988. Mayes. State University UNC-Greensboro N. Inc. NC 1982-1994 Wildlife Biologist.. 1981. Laney. Honorable Discharge 1970-1971 Public school teacher – Physical Science. and V. W. Laney. .Dennis L. Army. Stewart. Raleigh. NC 27954 dennis_stewart@fws. Nichols. North Carolina State University 1973-1979 Public school teacher – Earth Science (Geology). 37 pp + appendices. Bruton. Department of the Interior. W. Chapter – The Wildlife Society Selected Publications Stewart. S. Greensboro. Wildlife Federation. C. C. S. Raleigh. 1988. A. L. Bertie County. Dare County.. S. D. North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission. C. Manteo. N. 200 pp + appendices. 28(12). Department of the Interior. Stewart and D. N. Division of Ecological Services. D. McCrain. C. C. Noffsinger. L. C. E. Prulean Farms. Stewart.. Final Report on the North Carolina Department of Transportation Company Swamp Mitigation Bank. S. Fish & Wildlife Service Manteo. N. North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission 1979-1982 Teaching/Research Assistant. North Carolina. Stewart Refuge Wildlife Biologist North Carolina Coastal Plains Refuge Complex U. R. Alligator River and Pea Island National Wildlife Refuges. Fish and Wildlife Service. North Carolina Coastal Plains Refuge Complex. N. 252-473-1131 x231 Professional preparation N. N. L. Fish and Wildlife Service. L. R. State University Wildlife Biology Biology/Ecology Science Ed/Biology MS MEd BS 1984 1976 1970 Employment 1994-present Refuge Biologist. W.gov. North Carolina. N. Policies and Guidelines for Conservation of Wetlands and Aquatic Habitats by D. North Carolina Scientific Societies The Wildlife Society N. Friend O' Wildlife. R. Steffeck. C. R. C. North Carolina 1971-1973 U. C. C. Wildlife Resources Commission. Greensboro. U. Otters in North Carolina: A species in need of research. Raleigh. G. 1984. D. Raleigh. U. M. Department of Zoology.

N. Wildlife Resources Commission.Stewart. and D. 2006. 28-31. Synergistic activities Invited member scientific advisory panels: The Nature Conservancy Climate Change Adaptation Project Scientific.. L. D. Major projects include the U. management performance I have oversight authority for a number of research and monitoring projects on two refuges and am called to assist with input at four additional refuges. R. 23-27. Shore & Beach. Army Corps of Engineers dredging the Oregon Inlet Federal Navigation Channel and bypassing the sand to the Pea Island National Wildlife Refuge beach. technical. Shore & Beach. 2006. and D. 1993 Day Shift Night Shift. N. Long-term impacts of tidal inlet bypassing on the swash zone filter feeder Emerita talpoidea Oregon Inlet and Pea Island. . Wildlife in North Carolina. At Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge I am the primary contact for the Climate Change Adaptation Project. North Carolina. S. I am frequently called upon to assist with highly controversial projects such as wild horse management at Currituck National Wildlife Refuge or water management at Pocosin Lakes and Roanoke River National Wildlife Refuges. C. Stewart. C Dolan. R. A concept for reducing ecological impacts of beach nourishment and tidal inlet bypassing. 74(1). 74(1). C. I also have oversight responsibilities for wildlife crossings research relative to upgrading US Highway 64 from a 2-lane to a 4-lane facility across the refuge. Dolan. Raleigh. Donoghue. Stewart.

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APNEP’s many partners are committed to building resilience into and restoring the lands and waters of the Albemarle-Pamlico area. Governor Dee A. 2010 To Whom It May Concern. while protecting habitats and protecting water quality. William Crowell. the Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program strongly supports this project and its purpose. The APNEP looks forward to assisting with the project and sharing results of this project with its other partners. Raleigh. Concentrated efforts by both public and private partners in the region are needed to ensure a greater understanding of this dynamic system and prepare for the potentially devastating consequences to both public and private investments in the region. AICP 1601 Mail Service Center. Through USGS’ efforts. Perdue. Geological Survey’s (USGS) proposal to the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center. Again.North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources Beverly E.. Secretary Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program Bill Crowell. The Albemarle-Pamlico estuarine system is the second largest estuarine area in the United States. This project will make a significant contribution by helping provide information needed by the both private landowners and public land managers to apply adaptation measures and conservation practices to protect sensitive waters and decrease erosion. often supplemented by anthropogenic alterations and sea-level rise. This project supports the Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program (APNEP) mission and implementation of the Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan and will provide much needed information to guide efficient and cost effective adaptation measures. Please do not hesitate to contact me (919715-1327) if you have any questions. It supports a $1 billion fishing and ecotourism industry that is dependent on clean water and functional habitats. Director February 18. apnep. North Carolina 27699-1601 Phone: 919-715-4196 \ FAX: 919-715-3060 \ Internet: www. Freeman. This effort will play a critical role in assisting local efforts to address the potential impacts associated with sea level rise on the Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula. The shorelines in Albemarle-Pamlico estuarine system are extremely vulnerable to the effects of accelerated erosion.org An Equal Opportunity \ Affirmative Action Employer – 50% Recycled \ 10% Post Consumer Paper . I am pleased to write this letter of strong support for the U.S. Sincerely. entitled: AP Peninsula Hydrologic Monitoring and Modeling to Support Ecosystem Adaption and Management.

We are already performing measurements of dissolved organic carbon concentration. Ge Sun. Research Hydrologist Car ing for the Land and Ser ving People Printed on Recycled Paper . including the Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge (ARNWR). NC 27606 919-515-9498 Voice Ge_Sun@fs. and the movement of C in to and out of ecosystems (fluxes) as a function of the mentioned global change factors. As such. we fully support the proposed project and look forward to working with our partners of the USGS. we are engaged in a series of studies in collaboration with North Carolina State University. 2010 TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN I have read the pre-proposal of Dr. Wehmeyer entitled "AP Peninsula Hydrologic Monitoring and Modeling to Support Ecosystem Adaption and Management" and think that the proposed activities will provide direct and significant support to ongoing studies of the USFS Southern Global Change Program in the region. In particular. but need the hydrology data to calculate the carbon flux.fed. Ge Sun 920 Main Campus Dr . Specifically. The proposed work will be particularly valuable to us in that it promises to better characterize the hydrologic regime of ARNWR that will complement our ongoing studies of forest evapotranspiration. Sincerely. Suite 300 Ventur e Center II Raleigh. To do this. North Carolina.D. we are performing a series top-down and bottom-up ecosystem studies using eddy-covariance methodology and detailed analyses of net primary production and soil carbon dynamics at a series of managed and unmanaged ecosystems in Washington and Dare Counties. and land use on coastal forest resources. and other partners to assess the impacts of climate change. The Nature Conservancy. This will allow us to close the site water balance and constrain the dissolved fluxes of carbon in surface water and groundwater. sea level rise. the US Fish and Wildlife Service. Ph. we are quantifying the storage of C in plants and soils (pools).us File Code: Date: 4000 February 19.United States Depar tment of Agr icultur e For est Ser vice Souther n Resear ch Station Souther n Global Change Pr ogr am Dr .

Policy and Guidance Through policy statements. The NR Program’s goal is to ensure continued access to realistic habitat conditions to support the military’s combat readiness mission. while simultaneously working to ensure the long-term sustainability of our country’s priceless natural heritage. Sikes Act First passed in September 1960. guidance. To do this. and water resources. and all relevant Executive Orders. 4. National Environmental Policy Act. including the Sikes Act. By embracing a leadership role as part of the program. The three principles that guide the NR Program are stewardship. and coordinate with external stakeholders. Endangered Species Act. e. leadership. The NR Program’s primary responsibilities are to: oversee development and implementation of natural resource-related policy. Migratory Bird Treaty Act. the NR Program provides broad guidance to help the Military Services comply with all federal environmental laws. DoD Instruction 4715. 13514.. 2. guidance. procedures and supplemental materials. the Sikes Act as amended authorizes DoD to manage the natural resources under its stewardship. Executive Orders.DoD Natural Resources Conservation Program Program Overview The Department of Defense’s (DoD) Natural Resources Conservation Program (NR Program) provides policy. Through partnerships. air. the NR Program provides guidance through policy for preparing and implementing INRMPs. the Act requires that DoD develop comprehensive Integrated Natural Resources Management Plans (INRMPs) that are fully coordinated with the U.3 (under revision) is the NR Program’s primary policy document. 5. NC 1. manage natural resources allocation programs. and partnership. and metrics. These are: Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune.g. 7. and legislative obligations. To assist the Military Services. procedures. the Marine Mammal Protection Act. 6. ensure Military Service compliance with policies. The reissued DoD Instruction will formalize new conservation metrics that evaluate seven key performance areas for each installation’s INRMP. Fish and Wildlife Service and appropriate state agency. including non -governmental organizations. INRMP Project Implementation Listed Species and Critical Habitat Partnerships Effectiveness Fish and Wildlife Management and Public Use Team Adequacy Ecosystem Integrity INRMP Impact on the Installation Mission Defending Our Nation's Resources . Stewardship initiatives assist DoD in safeguarding its irreplaceable resources for future generations. 3. and oversight for management of natural resources on approximately 30 million acres of military land. states. DoD is responsible for managing and protecting 420 federally-listed species and 523 species at-risk. and other federal agencies.S. the Program strives to access the knowledge and talents of individuals outside of DoD. respond to Congressional inquiries. the DoD serves as a model for respectful use of natural and cultural resources.

mil/portal/page/portal/NaturalResources January 2010 . and pollinators. Through the Legacy Program. Photo: USFWS support military operations. the Sustaining Military Readiness Conference. Legacy has funded nearly 3. and the impacts and implications of adapting to global climate change.denix. creating outreach materials. Funding The Legacy Resource Management Program and the Forestry Reserve Account are funding mechanisms controlled by the DoD NR Program. The Legacy Program awards projects through a competitive process. such as a national pollinator workshop.boice@osd. Forestry Reserve Account funds are awarded to projects on a competitive basis. the DoD NR Program directly sponsors.org https://www. such as Bird Aircraft Strike Hazard (BASH) and wildland fire efforts. CA Outreach and Education Each year. Emerging Issues In addition to its current program portfolio. Since its inception in 1991. and are primarily used to benefit forest resources. or exhibit new and innovative ways of doing resource conservation on DoD lands. Peter Boice Deputy Director. Contact Information: L.000 projects. invasive species. In addition to providing guidance and policy. or legal or statutory requirements that go beyond installation-specific needs. The Wildlife Society Annual Conference. totaling approximately $300 million. expanding partnerships across geographic and geopolitical boundaries. attends. Events include the National Military Fish and Wildlife Association Annual Meeting. developing educational events. demonstrate cost efficiencies and time savings. and a variety of other workshops focusing on topics relating to threatened and endangered species. Funds result from the sale of forest products from military installations. and regional invasive species courses. such as the Invasive Species Outreach Toolkit and the Biodiversity Outreach Toolkit. the NR Program also sponsors educational courses and workshops.mil www.Wildlife and Habitat Management DoD is responsible for the lands and waters under its control.DoDLegacy.net www. Fort Irwin. and supporting safety programs. and/or actively participates in numerous natural resource and conservation-related conferences and meetings across the country. such as the Sikes Act Introductory and Advanced Sikes Act training courses. regional State Wildlife Action Plan/Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan Integration workshops. To be eligible. Partners in Amphibian and Reptile Conservation. Natural Resources Department of Defense peter. such as Partners in Flight. and the Pollinator Partnership. DoD also advances strategies to deal with emerging natural resources issues. with approximately $1-2 million per year awarded across the Military Services.DoDNaturalResources. such as the Natural Selections newsletter. to name a few. Areas the NR Program will focus on in the near future include ecosystem services.osd. projects must: focus on regional or Black-Capped Vireo DoD-wide activities. Mojave Desert. the ways in which the NR Program does this include: participating in partnership-based conservation efforts. and emphasize crosscutting conservation projects that support or leverage ongoing or new DoD initiatives. and the annual SERDP/ESTCP Partners Symposium. This includes managing and protecting 420 federally-listed species and 523 species at-risk. Additional outreach materials include specific publications.