Steel Industry Update/270

January 2012

Locker Associates, 225 Broadway, Suite 2625 New York NY 10007

Tel: 212-962-2980

Table 1: Selected U.S. Steel Industry Data, November & Year-to-Date, 2011
Month of November
2011
2010
% Chg
7,752
7,074
9.6%

(000 net tons)

Raw Steel Production ...............

2011
86,987

Year-to-Date
2010
81,402

% Chg
6.9%

Capacity Utilization .................

73.0

68.3

--

74.4

70.5

--

Mill Shipments ..........................

7,405

6,549

13.1%

83,780

76,333

9.8%

Exports .....................................

1,230

1,017

20.9%

12,253

11,076

10.6%

Total Imports.............................

2,121

1,786

18.8%

26,451

22,058

19.9%

Finished Steel Imports ............

1,651

1,497

10.3%

20,258

17,352

16.7%

Apparent Steel Supply* .............

7,825

7,029

11.3%

91,784

82,609

11.1%

Imports as % of Supply*..........

21.1

21.3

--

22.1

21.0

--

Average Spot Price** ($/ton) ......

$778

$660

17.9%

$874

$700

24.8%

Scrap Price# ($/gross ton)...........

$405

$354

14.4%

$437

$343

27.4%

Sources: AISI, SteelBenchmarker

*Excl semi-finished imports

**Avg price of 3 carbon products

#shredded scrap

Table 2: U.S. Spot Prices for Selected Steel Products, January & Year-to-Date, 2012

Hot Rolled Band..…………..
Cold Rolled Coil…......…….
Coiled Plate................……..

Month of January
2012
2011
% Chg
$728
$772
-5.7%
830
886
-6.3%
950
890
6.7%

2012
$728
830
950

Average Spot Price……....

$836

$849

-1.6%

$836

$849

-1.6%

OCTG (J55-SML)…………...

$2,040

$1,751

16.5%

$1,930

$1,748

10.4%

#1 Heavy Melt……………...
Shredded Scrap…………...
#1 Busheling……………….

$420
466
504

$425
455
477

-1.2%
2.4%
5.7%

$420
466
504

$425
440
466

-1.2%
5.9%
8.2%

($ per net ton)

Year-to-Date
2011
% Chg
$772
-5.7%
886
-6.3%
890
6.7%

Sources: World Steel Dynamics, Spears & Associates, 1/12; OCTG is December, 2011 data

Email: lockerassociates@yahoo.com | Website: www.lockerassociates.com

Steel Industry Update/270
Table 3: World Crude Steel Production, December & Year-to-Date, 2011
Month of December
Year-to-Date
(000 metric tons)
Region
2011
2010
% Chg
2011
2010
European Union…….
12,541
12,648
-1.0%
177,431
172,625
Other Europe……….
3,345
2,996
12.0%
37,181
31,895
C.I.S………………….

9,318

9,210

North America………

10,134

South America……...

3,795

Africa………………...
Middle East………….

% Chg
3.0%
17.0%

1.0%

112,434

108,080

4.0%

9,248

10.0%

118,927

111,406

7.0%

3,441

10.0%

48,357

43,872

10.0%

1,202

1,180

2.0%

13,966

16,261

-14.0%

1,718

1,658

4.0%

20,325

18,980

7.0%

Asia…………………..

74,581

74,039

1.0%

954,190

884,092

8.0%

Oceania………...…...

424

686

-38.0%

7,248

8,149

-11.0%

Total…………………

117,058

115,105

2.0% 1,490,060 1,395,359

7.0%

52,164
8,397

51,826
9,172

1.0%
-8.0%

683,265
107,595

627,506
109,599

9.0%
-2.0%

Country
China…………….......
Japan….…………..…
United States………..

7,334

6,648

10.0%

86,247

80,495

7.0%

India(e)……………….

6,150

5,743

7.0%

72,200

68,321

6.0%

South Korea…………

5,950

5,548

7.0%

68,471

58,912

16.0%

Russia……….…...….

5,886

5,711

3.0%

68,743

66,942

3.0%

Turkey.……………….

3,112

2,792

11.0%

34,103

29,143

17.0%

Germany.…….……….

3,025

3,177

-5.0%

44,288

43,830

1.0%

Ukraine.….…………..

2,804

2,960

-5.0%

35,332

33,432

6.0%

Brazil……..…………..

2,688

2,427

11.0%

35,162

32,926

7.0%

All Others…………....

19,548

19,101

2.3%

254,654

244,253

4.3%

Source: World Steel Association, 1/12; e=estimate

Graph 1: World Crude Steel Production, November 2011

Source: World Steel Association, 1/12; in million metric tons

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Steel Industry Update/270

Graph 2: World Steel Capacity Utilization Ratio, November 2011

Source: World Steel Association, 1/12

Table 4: U.S. Steel Imports, November & YTD, 2011
(in 000 tons)

Japan
EU
Canada
Brazil
Korea
Mexico
Russia
China
Australia
South Africa
Indonesia
Turkey
Ukraine
India
Others
Total

Nov '11
154
474
419
183
193
208
83
84
34
4
6
24
14
76
151
2,107

Nov '10
103
347
464
124
153
155
69
70
59
17
2
37
15
46
125
1,786

% Chg
49.8%
36.6%
-9.7%
47.5%
26.0%
34.4%
19.8%
19.6%
-42.1%
-74.1%
-58.2%
-34.5%
-4.5%
65.3%
20.8%
18.0%

Source: World Steel Associates, 1/12

-3-

YTD ‘11
1,844
4,055
5,629
2,721
2,634
2,700
1,323
1,152
803
131
50
651
333
745
1,667
26,438

YTD ‘10
1,338
3,937
6,235
804
1,846
2,605
1,306
797
517
103
29
561
118
749
1,113
22,058

% Chg
37.8%
3.0%
-9.7%
238.4%
42.7%
3.7%
1.3%
44.5%
55.4%
27.6%
70.7%
16.1%
182.5%
-0.5%
49.8%
19.9%

Steel Industry Update/270

Table 5: U.S. Steel Exports, November & YTD, 2011
(in 000 tons)

Canada
Mexico
EU
Russia
Turkey
Brazil
Venezuela
Ecuador
Argentina
Colombia
Trin & Tobago
Peru
Chile
Dom Republic
Others
Total

Nov '11
583,731
310,546
90,022
609
603
26,477
18,839
5,484
805
16,365
246
8,315
6,399
1,738
160,241
1,230,420

Nov '10
505,989
249,476
63,276
701
751
20,563
2,339
18,529
1,877
7,247
372
4,972
1,151
5,114
134,454
1,016,811

% Chg
15.4%
24.5%
42.3%
-13.1%
-19.7%
28.8%
705.4%
-70.4%
-57.1%
125.8%
-33.9%
67.2%
456.0%
-66.0%
19.2%
21.0%

YTD ‘11
6,157,896
3,124,611
549,338
7,934
30,217
144,327
75,296
44,155
13,597
110,341
16,789
113,200
32,850
189,643
1,643,209
12,253,403

YTD ‘10
6,209,865
2,384,635
419,539
8,824
19,363
149,285
59,989
56,520
14,156
103,234
15,634
92,436
38,354
241,923
1,262,304
11,076,061

% Chg
-0.8%
31.0%
30.9%
-10.1%
56.1%
-3.3%
25.5%
-21.9%
-3.9%
6.9%
7.4%
22.5%
-14.4%
-21.6%
30.2%
10.6%

Source: AIIS, 1/12

Table 6: MEPS Global Crude Steel Production Forecast, 2012f
Region
European Union

2011(e)
177.7

2012(f)
184.5

Other Europe/CIS

151.4

159.9

North America

119.1

123.0

South America

48.7

51.5

Africa/Middle East

36.7

39.8

China

731.0

800.0

Japan

108.0

110.5

Other Asia/Oceania
World Total

192.1

200.9

1,564.7

1,670.0

Source: MEPS -- World Steel Outlook, 1/25/12; in million tonnes

Steel Industry Update (ISSN 1063-4339) published 12 times/year by Locker Associates, Inc. Copyright © 2012 by Locker Associates, Inc. All
rights reserved. Reproduction in any form forbidden w/o permission. Locker Associates, Inc., 225 Broadway Suite 2625 New York NY 10007.

-4-

Steel Industry Update/270

Table 7: Turkish Steel Billet Exports, YTD 2011
Country
2011

2010

Saudi Arabia

707,429

718,676

Egypt

424,009

282,982

Syria

183,100

59,617

UAE

161,469

836,729

Morocco

130,518

121,906

Italy

109,888

51,128

Bangladesh

91,670

76,534

Peru

54,375

217

Tunisia

49,821

89,750

Sudan

31,248

12,550

Source: Steelorbis.com, 1/6/12; in tonnes

Table 8: India’s Steel Production, November 2011
Producer
SAIL
RINL
TATA Steel
Total of 3
Other Major Producers
Total for Big Ones

Nov'11
669
241
443
1,353
1,299
2,652

Nov'10
765
194
443
1,402
1,165
2,567

% Chg
-12.5%
24.2%
0.0%
-3.5%
11.5%
3.3%

Oct'11
541
267
454
1,262
1,853
3,115

MoM
23.7%
-9.7%
-2.4%
7.2%
-29.9%
-14.9%

Source: JPC 1/12; in 000 tonnes

Table 9: Severstal Financial Results, 3rd quarter 2011
(in US$ millions)

Revenue
EBITDA
Profit from operations
Net profit/(loss)

Q3'11
$4,772
1,130
922
429

Q2'11
$4,383
1,109
890
602

Source: Steel Guru, 12/29/11

-5-

% Chg
8.9%
1.9%
3.6%
-28.7%

9M'11
$12,882
3,173
2,549
1,550

9M'101
$9,847
2,364
1,795
-225

% Chg
30.8%
34.2%
42.0%
n/a

Steel Industry Update/270
Table 10: US Scrap Industry Jobs and Generated Revenue, 2011
($ millions)

Jobs
Wages
Econ Impact ($ mil)

Direct
137,640
$9.2
$32.8

Supplier
132,490
$7.9
$27.9

Induced
189,010
$9.1
$29.9

Total
459,140
$26.1
$90.6

Source: Economic Impact Study US-based Scrap Recycling Industry Report 2011 by John
Dunham & Associates

Table 11: Economic Impact of US Scrap Recycling Exports, 2011
($ billions)

Jobs
Wages
Econ Impact ($ bil)

Direct
51,768
$3.3
$11.0

Supplier
44,239
$2.6
$9.3

Induced
65,924
$3.2
$10.4

Total
161,931
$9.1
$30.7

Source: Economic Impact Study US-based Scrap Recycling Industry Report 2011 by John
Dunham & Associates

Table 12: US Scrap Industry Economic and Job Impact, by State, 2011

Source: Economic Impact Study US-based Scrap Recycling Industry Report 2011 by John Dunham & Associates

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Steel Industry Update/270

Table 12: World Production of Iron Ore, 2008-2010
Country (in mil tonnes)
Sweden
Europe (excl CIS)
CIS
Europe Total
Canada
USA
Brazil
Venezuela
Americas Total
Mauritania
South Africa
Africa Total
India
Asia (excl China)
China
Asia Total
Australia
Oceania Total
World Total

2008
23.8
28.5
191.4
219.9
33.4
53.6
346.0
21.5
482.9
11.2
49.0
63.3
223.0
262.7
301.2
563.9
349.8
351.2

2009
17.7
21.6
177.1
198.7
33.0
26.7
305.0
14.9
407.3
11.4
55.4
70.1
218.6
259.2
222.7
481.9
394.1
396.2

2010
25.3
31.8
202.5
234.3
37.5
49.5
375.0
14.0
509.2
11.3
56.9
70.8
212.0
262.6
315.4
578.0
432.8
434.9

1,681.8

1,554.1

1,827.6

Source: UNCTAD 2011 as published in NSMR Bergsmannen 7/11

Table 13: Corporate Control in Iron Ore Mining, 2010
Entity
Vale (Cia Vale do Rio Doce)
Rio Tinto
BHP Billiton
State of India
ArcelorMittal
Anglo American
Fortesque Metal Group
Cliffs Natural Resources
Metalloinvest
System Capital Management
Total of 10 Largest
World Total

Country
Brazil
UK
Australia
India
Luxemburg
UK
Australia
US
Russia
Ukraine

Controlled
World Prod*
309.0
181.0
149.0
56.1
49.7
46.2
38.8
37.4
37.0
31.2
935.0
1,827.0

Share %
16.9%
9.9%
8.2%
3.1%
2.7%
2.4%
2.1%
2.0%
2.0%
1.7%
51.0%
100.0%

Source: Raw Materials Data as published in NSMR Bergsmannen 7/11; *in million tonnes

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Steel Industry Update/270

Locker Associates Steel Track: Spot Prices
U.S. Flat-Rolled Prices

U.S. Scrap Prices

($ per ton)

($ per ton)

500

1100

#1 Busheling

Plate
1000

450

CR Coil

Shredded Scrap

900
400

800

#1 Heavy Melt

350

Rebar
700

HR Band

300

600
250

500

200

400
'06 '07 '08 '09 1q 2q 3q 4q J F M A M J

'07 '08 '09 1q 2q 3q 4q J

J A S O N D J

F

M A M J

J

A

S O N D J

Locker Associates Steel Track: Performance
U.S. Raw Steel Production

10.0

(mil net tons)

9.0

2011

80%

7.0

70%

6.0

60%

5.0

50%

4.0

40%

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

2010

90%

8.0

3.0

U.S. Capacity Utilization

100%

2011
2010

30%

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

2011 7.9 7.4 8.1 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 7.9 7.9 7.8

2011 73% 75% 75% 74% 73% 76% 75% 76% 76% 72% 73%

2010 6.9 6.9 7.8 7.7 8.0 7.8 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.1

2010 64% 71% 73% 74% 75% 75% 70% 68% 70% 67% 68%

D

Steel Mill Products: US Imports, November & Year-to-Date
Imports: Country of Origin
(000 net tons)

Canada………………………..
Mexico…………………………
Other W. Hemisphere………..
European Union………………
Other Europe*………………..
Asia…………………………….
Oceania……………………….
Africa…………………………..
Total
Imports: Customs District
Atlantic Coast…………………
Gulf Coast/Mexican Border…
Pacific Coast………………….
Gr Lakes/Canadian Border….
Off Shore………………………

Month of November
2011
2010
% Chg
419
464
-9.7%
208
155
34.2%
295
156
89.1%
409
347
17.9%
131
129
1.6%
611
447
36.7%
42
72
-41.7%
5
17
-70.6%
2,121
1,786
18.8%

2011
5,629
2,701
3,138
3,990
2,388
7,542
923
140
26,451

173
1,031
295
612
10

2,874
11,895
4,641
6,859
182

215
716
234
604
18

Source: AISI; *includes Russia

Update #270
-8-

-19.5%
44.0%
26.1%
1.3%
-44.4%

Year-to-Date
2010
% Chg
6,235
-9.7%
2,605
3.7%
1,066
194.4%
3,937
1.3%
2,051
16.4%
5,444
38.5%
609
51.6%
110
27.3%
22,058
19.9%
2,733
7,634
4,111
7,388
191

5.2%
55.8%
12.9%
-7.2%
-4.7%

Locker Associates, Inc.
LOCKER ASSOCIATES is a business-consulting firm that specializes in enhancing the
competitiveness of businesses and industries on behalf of unions, corporate and government
clients. By combining expert business and financial analysis with a sensitivity to labor issues,
the firm is uniquely qualified to help clients manage change by:





leading joint labor/management business improvement initiatives;
facilitating ownership transitions to secure the long-term viability of a business;
conducting strategic industry studies to identify future challenges and opportunities;
representing unions in strategic planning, workplace reorganization and bankruptcy
formulating business plans for turnaround situations; and
performing due diligence for equity and debt investors.

Over the last 28 years, the firm has directed over 225 projects spanning manufacturing,
transportation, distribution and mining industries. Typical projects involve in-depth analysis of a
firm’s market, financial and operating performance on behalf of a cooperative labormanagement effort. Locker Associates also produces a widely read monthly newsletter, Steel
Industry Update that circulates throughout the U.S. and Canadian steel industry.

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RECENT PROJECTS
• Business Plan for High-Tech Startup (2009-present): drafted detailed business plan to
raise capital and promote a new hydrogen battery technology
• IBT-Supervalu (2010): assist union and management to identify major operational problems
impacting warehouse performance and provide recommendations for joint improvement
• Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (2010): presented a status report on the U.S. steel
market before the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries Commodities roundtable

• Save the World Air-Marketing (2009-present): developed a marketing plan to help drive
sales of a green technology product, ELEKTRA, an electronic fuel device for trucks that
increases fuel economy (mpg's), reduces exhaust emissions and improves engine performance

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