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This note is a basic introduction to econometrics, particularly OLS. It also contains a practical summary of some linear algebra that you should know to address the topic.

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Econometrics II by Jorge Rojas ∗

Abstract This is a summary containing the main ideas in the subject. This is not a summary of the lecture notes, this is a summary of ideas and basic concepts. The mathematical machinery is necessary, but the principles are much more important.

1

Linear Algebra

1. (AT )T = A 2. (A + B)T = AT + B T 3. (AB)T = B T AT 4. (cA)T = cAT ∀c ∈ R

Properties of Transpose

5. det(AT ) = det(A) 6. a · b = aT b =< a, b > (inner product) 7. This is important: If A has only real entries, then (AT A) is a positive-semideﬁnite matrix. 8. (AT )−1 = (A−1 )T 9. If A is a square matrix, then its eigenvalues are equal to the eigenvalues of its transpose. Notice that if A ∈ M(n×m) , then AAT is always symmetric. Properties of the Inverse 1. (A−1 )−1 = A

1 2. (kA)−1 = k A−1

∀k ∈ R \ {0}

**3. (AT )−1 = (A−1 )T 4. (AB)−1 = B −1 A−1 5. det(A−1 ) = [det(A)]−1
**

Without Equality in Opportunities, Freedom is the privilege of a few, and Oppression the reality of everyone else.

∗

1

ECON581: Lecture Notes

Econometrics II by Jorge Rojas 1

**Properties of the trace 1. Deﬁnition. tr(A) =
**

n i=1

aii

2. tr(A + B) = tr(A) + tr(B) 3. tr(cA) = c · tr(A) ∀c ∈ R 4. tr(AB) = tr(BA) 5. Similarity invariant: tr(P −1 AP ) = tr(A) 6. Invariant under cyclic permutations: tr(ABCD) = tr(BCDA) = tr(CDAB) = tr(DABC) 7. tr(X ⊗ Y ) = tr(X) · tr(Y ) where ⊗ is the tensor product, also known as Kronecker product. 8. tr(XY ) =

i,j

Xij · Yji

The Kronecker product is deﬁned for matrices A ∈ M(m×n) and B ∈ M(p×q) as follows: a11 B · · · a1n B . . .. . A⊗B = . . . . am1 B · · · amn B mp×nq Properties of the Kronecker Product 1. (A ⊗ B)−1 = (A−1 ⊗ B −1 ) 2. If A ∈ M(m×m) and B ∈ M(n×n) , then: |A ⊗ B| = |A|n |B|m (A ⊗ B)T = AT ⊗ B T tr(A ⊗ B) = tr(A)tr(B) 3. (A ⊗ B)(C ⊗ D) = AC ⊗ BD

Careful! it doesn’t distribute with respect to the usual multiplication

Properties of Determinants

n

only deﬁned for A ∈ Mn×n

**1. det(aA) = a · det(A) ∀a ∈ R 2. det(−A) = (−1)n · det(A) 3. det(AB) = det(A) · det(B) 4. det(In ) = 1 5. det(A) =
**

1

det(A−1 )

6. det(BAB −1 ) = det(A) similarity transformation. 7. det(A) = det(AT ) ¯ 8. det(A) = det(A) the bar represents complex conjugate.

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ECON581: Lecture Notes

Econometrics II by Jorge Rojas 2

**Diﬀerentiation of Linear Transformations 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
**

∂aT x ∂x ∂Ax ∂x

(matrices)

= =

∂xT a ∂x ∂xT AT ∂x

=a = AT

∂xT A ∂x

=A = (A + AT )x = abT x + baT x

∂xT Ax ∂x

∂aT xxT b ∂x

Diﬀerentiation of traces 1. 2. 3. 4.

∂tr(AX) ∂X

=

∂tr(XA) ∂X

= AT = (BA)T = (BX T CA)T + (CAXB)

∂tr(AXB) ∂X

=

∂tr(XBA) ∂X

∂tr(AXBX T C) ∂X ∂|X| ∂X

=

∂tr(XBX T CA) ∂X

= cof actor(X) = det(X) · (X −1 )T

2

Probability Distributions

Here, we could say that, starts the summary for Econometrics ECON581. Deﬁnition 1. Normal distribution: where µ is the mean and σ 2 is the variance.

(x−µ)2 1 f (x) = √ e− 2σ2 σ 2π

∀x ∈ R

If the mean is zero and the variance is one, then we have the standard normal distribution N (0, 1). The normal distribution has no closed form solution for its cumulative density function CDF. Deﬁnition 2. Chi-square Distribution: We say that χ2 has r degrees of freedom. (r)

r

Zi ∼ iidN (0, 1)∀i = 1, . . . , r =⇒ A =

i=1

Zi2 ∼ χ2 (r)

E(A) = r and V (A) = 2r Thus, the χ2 is just a square sum of standard normal distributions. We use this (r) distribution to test the value of the variance of a population. For instance, H0: σ 2 = 5 against H1: σ > 5

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ECON581: Lecture Notes

Econometrics II by Jorge Rojas 3

Deﬁnition 3. t-student Distribution: We say that t(r) has r degrees of freedom. The t-distribution has “fatter” tails than the standard normal distribution. Z ∼ N (0, 1) ∧ A ∼ χ2 ∧ (Z and A are independent) =⇒ T = (r) E(T ) = 0 and V (T ) =

r r−2

Z A/r

∼ t(r)

The t distribution is an “appropriate” ratio of a standard normal and a χ2 random (r) variables. Deﬁnition 4. F Distribution: We say that F (r1 , r2 ) has r1 degrees of freedom in the numerator and r2 degrees of freedom in the denominator. A1 ∼ χ2 1 ) ∧ A2 ∼ χ2 2 ) ∧ (A1 and A2 are independent) =⇒ F = (r (r A1 /r1 ∼ F (r1 , r2 ) A2 /r2

We use the F distribution to test whether two variances are the same or not after a 2 2 2 2 structural break. For instance, H0: σ0 = σ1 against H1: σ0 > σ1 .

3

Probability Deﬁnitions

**Deﬁnition 5. The expected value of a continuos random variable is given by: E[X] =
**

Ω

xf (x)dx

(1)

The notation

Ω

just means that Ω is the domain of the relevant random variable.

**Deﬁnition 6. The variance of a continuos random variable is given by: V [X] = V ar[X] = E[(x − µ)2 ] =
**

Ω

(x − µ)2 f (x)dx

(2)

Deﬁnition 7. The covariance of two continuos random variables is given by: C[X, Y ] = Cov[X, Y ] = E[XY ] − E[X]E[Y ] (3)

Notice that the covariance of a r.v. X with itself is its variance. In addition, if two random variables are independent, then its covariance is zero. The reverse is not necessarily true.

**Some useful properties: 1. E(a + bX + cY ) = a + bE(X) + cE(Y ) 2. V (a + bX = cY ) = b2 V (X) + c2 V (Y ) + 2bcCov(X, Y ) 3. Cov(a1 + b1 X + c1 Y, a2 + b2 X + c2 Y ) = b1 b2 V (X) + c1 c2 V (Y ) + (b1 c2 + c1 b2 )Cov(X, Y ) 4. If Z = h(X, Y ), then E(Z) = EX [EY |X (Z|X)] Law of iterated expectations
**

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ECON581: Lecture Notes

Econometrics II by Jorge Rojas 4

4

Econometrics

A random variable is a real-valued function deﬁned over a Sample Space. The Sample Space (Ω) is the set of all possible outcomes. Before collecting the data (ex-ante) all our estimators are random variables. Once we have realized the data(ex-post), we get a speciﬁc number for our estimators. These numbers are what we called estimates. Remark 1. A simple Econometric Model: yi = µ + ei regression model, but is an econometric one. ∀i = 1, . . . , n. This is not a

In order to estimate µ we make the following assumptions: 1. E(ei ) = 0 ∀i 2. V ar(ei ) = E(e2 ) = σ 2 i ∀i

3. Cov(ei , ej ) = E(ei ej ) = 0 ∀i = j In a near future, we will further assume that the residual term follows a normal distribution with µ = 0 and variance σ 2 . This is not necessary for the estimation process, but we need to run some hypothesis tests. What we are looking for is for a line that ﬁts the data, minimising the distance between the ﬁtted line and the data. In other words, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS).

n

Min

i=1

(yi − µ)2 ⇔ Min SSR ⇔ ˆ

i 1 n n i=1

ei 2 ˆ

The estimator is then given by µ = ˆ

yi = y ¯

Deﬁnition 8. We say that an estimator is Unbiased if: E(ˆ) = µ µ In other words, if after inﬁnitely sampling we are able to achieve the true population value. For this particular estimator (ˆ) is easy to see that is indeed unbiased and its variance µ 1 2 is V ar(ˆ) = n σ , given the assumption that the draws are iid. µ Note: Linear combination of normal distribution is a normal distribution. Proposition 1. If µ ∼ N (µ, σ ), then Z = ˆ n

2

µ−µ ˆ√ σ/ n

∼ N (0, 1)

**Standard normal values: Φ(z ≥ 1.96) = 0.025 and Φ(z ≥ 1.64) = 0.05 Note: 1. 2.
**

e2 i σ2 ei 2 ˆ σ2

∼ χ2 n

2

σ = (n−1)ˆ ∼ χ2 We lose one degree of freedom here because we need to use n−1 σ2 one datum to estimate µ. ˆ µ−µ ˆ √ σ2 / n ˆ

3. When we do not know σ 2 our standardise variable is Z =

∼ t(n−1)

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ECON581: Lecture Notes

Econometrics II by Jorge Rojas 5

Hypothesis Testing

Reject H0 Reject H1

H0 is true H1 is true Type I error OK OK Type II error

Thus, we deﬁne the following probabilities: • P(Type I error) = P(Reject H0| H0 is true) = α • P(Type II error) = P(Fail to reject H0| H0 is false) = 1 − β and β is the so-called “power of the test”. Remark 2. Multiple Linear Regression (Population) yi = xi β + ei ASSUMPTIONS E(ei ) E(e2 ) i E(ei ej) ei = = = ∼ 0 ∀i σ 2 ∀i 0 ∀i = j N (0, σ 2 ) (4) ∀i = 1, . . . , n vector notation

X variables are non-stochastic. There is NO exact linear relationship among X variables. If ei is not normal, we may apply the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). However, for this we need to have a large sample size. How large is large enough? 30 (n − K) is one number, but it will depend on the problem. OLS estimator results from minimising the SSE(error sum of squares)

n n

ˆ β=(

i=1

x i xi )

−1 i=1

xi y i

(5)

The above estimator is useful if we are in “Asymptopia”. In matrix notation we have: y = Xβ + e e ∼ iid N (0, σ 2 In ) X is non-stochastic The OLS from the sample is: ˆ β = (X X)−1 X Y = β + (X X)−1 X e This mathematical form is useful to run analysis in the “ﬁnite sample” world. The OLS estimator is unbiased and its variance-covariance matrix is given by: ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ Cov(β) = E[(β − E(β))(β − E(β)) ] = E[(X X)−1 X ee X(X X)−1 ] = σ 2 (X X)−1 ˆ Thus, β ∼ N (β, σ 2 (X X)−1 )

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(6)

(7)

(8)

ECON581: Lecture Notes

Econometrics II by Jorge Rojas 6

Deﬁnition 9. The matrix MX = In − X(X X)−1 X is symmetric and idempotent, i.e., T MX = MX and MX × MX = MX In general, we can have Mi = In − Xi (Xi Xi )−1 Xi . Thus, Mi Xj is interpreted as the residuals from regressing Xj on Xi . Note: The following properties are important for demonstrations: 1. If A is a square matrix, then A = CΛC −1 where Λ is a diagonal matrix with the eigenvalues of A, and C is the matrix of the eigenvectors in column form. 2. If A is symmetric, then C C = CC = In and hence A = CΛC 3. If A is symmetric and idempotent, then Λ is a diagonal matrix with either eigenvalues 1 or 0. 4. If A = CΛC , then rank(A)=r where r = n λi i=1 Using this deﬁnition we get that ˆˆ e e = e MX e and hence E(ˆ e) = σ 2 (n − K) eˆ Theorem 1. Gauss-Markov Theorem: In a linear regression model in which the errors have expectation zero and are uncorrelated and have equal variances, the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) of the coeﬃcients is given by the OLS estimator. Best means giving the lowest possible mean squared error of the estimate. Notice that the errors need not be normal, nor independent and identically distributed (only uncorrelated and homoscedastic). The proof for this theorem is based on supposing an estimator β ∗ = CY that is better ˆ than β and ﬁnding the related contradiction. Remark 3. Suppose that you have the model: ˆ ˆ ˆ Y = X1 β1 + X2 β2 + e , ˆ then you can estimate β1 as: ˆ β1 = (X1 M2 X1 )−1 X1 M2 Y M2 = In − X2 (X2 X2 )−1 X2 ˆ likewise, for β2 we have: ˆ β2 = (X2 M1 X2 )−1 X2 M1 Y M1 = In − X1 (X1 X1 )−1 X1 ˆ e ∼ N (0, σ 2 In )

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ECON581: Lecture Notes

Econometrics II by Jorge Rojas 7

4.1

Misspeciﬁcation Cases.

Including an Irrelevant Variable True regression model: ˆ ˆ Y = X1 β1 + e Estimated regression: ˆ ˆ ˆ Y = X1 β1 + X2 β2 + e The main result is that the OLS estimators are NOT eﬃcient, however they’re still unbiased. ˆ β1 = β1 + (X1 M2 X1 )−1 X1 M2 e ˆ E(β1 ) = β1 ˆ V ar(β1 ) = σ 2 (X1 M2 X1 ) Thus, comparing the variances between the true estimator and the ineﬃcient one, we get a matrix that is positive deﬁnite, and so we establish the claim. 1 1 1 − = 2 X1 X2 (X2 X2 )−1 X2 X1 ˆ1,true ) V ar(β1,est ) ˆ σ V ar(β Omitting a Relevant Variable. True regression model: ˆ ˆ ˆ Y = X1 β1 + X2 β2 + e Estimated regression: ˆ ˆ Y = X1 β1 + e In this case, we get bias in the estimator, so we do not even mind to analyse the variance. ˆ β1 = β1 + (X1 X1 )−1 X1 X2 β2 + (X1 X1 )−1 X1 e ˆ E(β1 ) = β1 + (X1 X1 )−1 X1 X2 β2

5

Hypothesis Testing (in detail).

¡¡¡Viva la Revoluci´n Libertaria!!! o

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ECON581: Lecture Notes

Econometrics II by Jorge Rojas 8

6

**One page Summary
**

Y ˆ β ˆ E(β) ˆ Cov(β) ˆ β

2

= = = = ∼

**Xβ + e (X X)−1 X Y β σ 2 (X X)−1 N (β, σ 2 (X X)−1 ) 1 1 ˆˆ ee= n−K n−K 2σ 4 (n − K)
**

n

σ ˆ

=

e2 i

i=1

E(ˆ 2 ) = σ 2 σ V ar(ˆ ) = σ

2

e e ∼ χ2 (n) ˆˆ (n − K)ˆ 2 σ ee = ∼ χ2 (n−K) 2 σ σ2 e ∼ N (0, In ) e ∼ N (0, σ 2 In ) ⇔ σ MX = In − X(X X)−1 X ˆ e = MX Y Theorem 2. Gauss-Markov Theorem: In a linear regression model in which the errors have expectation zero and are uncorrelated and have equal variances, the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) of the coeﬃcients is given by the OLS estimator. Best means giving the lowest possible mean squared error of the estimate. Notice that the errors need not be normal, nor independent and identically distributed (only uncorrelated and homoscedastic).

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