SECTION I: INTRODUCTION Process safety emphasizes the use of appropriate technological tools to provide information for making safety decisions with respect to plant design and operation. Safety, hazard, and risk are frequently-used terms in chemical process safety. Their definitions follow: • Safety or loss prevention is the prevention of accidents by the use of appropriate technologies to identify the hazards of a chemical plant and to eliminate them before an accident occurs. • A hazard is anything with the potential for producing an accident. • Risk = [Frequency of a hazard resulting in an accident] x [Consequence of the accident]. Chemical plants contain a large variety of hazards. First, there are the usual mechanical hazards that cause worker injuries from tripping, falling, or moving equipment. Second, there are chemical hazards. These include fire and explosion hazards, reactivity hazards and toxic hazards. Nature of the Accident Process Chemical plant accidents follow typical patterns. It is important to study these patterns in order to anticipate the types of accidents that will occur. As shown in Table 1, fires are the most common, followed by explosion and toxic release. With respect to fatalities, the order reverses, with toxic release having the greatest potential for fatalities. Table 1: Three Types of Chemical Plant Accidents Type of accident Probability of Potential for Potential for occurrence fatalities economic loss Fire High Low Intermediate Explosion Intermediate Intermediate High Toxic Release Low High Low Economic loss is consistently high for accidents involving explosions. The most damaging type of explosion is an unconfined vapour cloud explosion where a large cloud of volatile and flammable vapor is released and dispersed throughout the plant site followed by ignition and explosion of the cloud. Toxic release typically results in little damage to capital equipment but personnel injuries, employee losses, legal compensation, and cleanup liabilities can be significant. The Accident Process Accidents follow a three-step process. Initiation: the event that starts the accident. Propagation: the event or events that maintain or expand the accident. • Termination: the event or events that stop the accident or diminish it in size. In the example cited above, the worker tripped to initiate the accident. The shearing of the valve and the resulting explosion and fire propagated the accident. The event was terminated by consumption of all flammable materials.
• •


Process upsets Process deviations Pressure, Temperature Flow rate, Concentration, Phase /state change, Impurities Reaction rate/ heat of reaction Spontaneous reaction Polymerization, Runaway reaction Internal explosion Decomposition Containment failures Pipes, tanks, vessels, gaskets/seals Equipment malfunctions Pumps, valves, instruments, sensors, interlock failures Loss of utilities Electricity, nitrogen, water, refrigerator, air, heat transfer fluids, steam, ventilation • • • • • •

Table 2 Accident Initiating Events Management Human errors systems failures Inadequate Design staffing Construction Insufficient training Operations Lack of administrative controls and audits Maintenance Testing and inspection

External events Extreme weather conditions Earthquakes Nearby accidents’ impacts Vandalism / sabotage

Table 3 Accident Propagating Factors Failures: Equipment failure, Safety system failure Ignition sources: Furnaces, Flares, Incinerators, Vehicles, Electrical switches, Static electricity, Hot surfaces, Cigarettes Management systems failure: Inadequate staffing, training etc Human errors: Omission, Commission, Fault diagnosis, Decision making Domino effects: Other containment failures, Other material releases External conditions: Meteorology, Visibility • • • • Table 4 Accident Phenomena Discharge: Single (liquid/vapour) or two phase flow, flash, evaporation Dispersion: Neutral or buoyant gas, Dense gas Fires: Pool fires, Jet fires, Flash fires, Fireballs Explosions: BLEVEs, Confined explosions, Unconfined vapor cloud explosions, Physical explosions, Dust explosions, Detonations, Missiles

Table 5 Accident Consequences • Effect analysis: Toxic effects, Thermal effects, Overpressure effects • Damage assessments: Community, Workforce, Environment, Company assets, Production Risk Analysis and Management Risk analysis, as used for the assessment of the hazards associated with process plant and storage installations can be summarized by three questions. - What can go wrong? - What are the effects and consequences? - How often will it happen? The first and basic step of hazard identification (the first question) is purely qualitative and is often called a safety study. Such a study may reveal aspects of the plant or installation which require more consideration. It is then necessary to answer the next two questions in order to complete the risk analysis. The results of the analysis are used for judgment about the acceptability of the risk and for decision making (see figure below). Qualitative answers are often given to the second and third questions. However, recent developments have involved the application of quantitative techniques for obtaining answers to these two questions. The use of these techniques is termed as quantitative risk analysis (QRA). The whole exercise may be called risk assessment. In earlier years, many companies did not use quantitative techniques after the identification stage. However, decisions were made and actions taken to control specific hazards considering (qualitatively) probabilities and consequences. In a sense this is an elementary form of risk analysis, but at a less sophisticated level than assessments involving quantitative consideration of probabilities and consequences. However, over the years, the use of in-depth risk assessment ranging from hazard identification to computation of individual and societal risk has increased. Risk Control and Layers of Protection Safety engineering involves eliminating the initiating step and replacing the propagation steps by termination events Table 6 presents a few ways to accomplish this. In theory, eliminating the initiating step can stop accidents. In practice this is not very effective. It is unrealistic to expect elimination of all initiation. A much more effective approach is to work on all three areas to insure that accidents, once initiated, do not propagate and will terminate as quickly as possible. Risk Measures Risk is defined as a measure of economic loss or human injury in terms of both the likelihood and the magnitude of the loss or injury. There are three commonly used ways of combining information on likelihood and magnitude of loss or injury: risk indices are single numbers or tabulations that yield simple presentations, individual risk measures consider the risk of an individual who may be at any point in the effect zones of incidents, and societal risk measures consider the risk to populations that are in the effect zones of incidents.


System Description Hazard Identification Scenario Identification

Accident Probability

Accident Consequence Modify Design No Accept Risk?

Risk Estimation

Yes Build System/Operate

Schema of Risk Assessment and Management Table 6: Mitigating the Accident Process Procedure Grounding and Bonding Inerting Flame proof electricals Guardrails and guards Maintenance procedures Hot-work permits Human factors design Process design Awareness of dangerous properties of chemicals Emergency material transfer Reduce inventories of flammables Equipment spacing and layout Nonflammable construction materials Firefighting equipment and procedures Relief systems Sprinkler systems Installation of check and emergency shut-off valves

Step Initiation

Desired effect Diminish






each individual in that building is subject to a certain individual risk. comparison of risk reduction benefits from various remedial measures) or an absolute basis (e. Operator Supervision Typical Layers of Protection • Individual Risk: risk to a person in the vicinity of a hazard (probability of fatality person per year) • Societal Risk: a measure of risk to a group of people. Risk presentation provides a simple quantitative risk description useful for decision making. y) is a type of societal risk measure. This individual risk is independent of the number of people present – it is the same for each of the 400 people in the building during office hours and for the single guard at other times. than at other times when a single person is affected. An office building located near a chemical plant contains 400 people during office hours and 1 guard at other times. Additionally.g. The difference between individual and societal risk may be illustrated by the following example. residential. Risk presentation reduces this large volume of information to a manageable form. The presentation may be on a relative basis (e. the likelihood of 10 fatalities at a specific location (x. If the likelihood of an incident causing a fatality at the office building is constant throughout the day. comparison with a risk target). However. 2) Community Emergency Response Plant Emergency Response Physical Protection (Dikes) Physical Protection (Relief Devices) Automatic Action SIS or ESD Critical Alarms. This definition can include the population (e. Risk Presentation The large quantity of frequency and consequence information generated by a Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) must be integrated into a presentation that is relatively easy to understand and use. societal risk estimation requires a definition of the population at risk around the facility. The form of presentation will vary depending on the goal of the CPQRA and the measure of risk selected.g. or mitigation factors. when 400 people are affected. the societal risk is significantly higher during office hours. industrial.g. Operator Supervision. school). The calculation of societal risk requires the same frequency and consequence information as individual risk. For example. the likelihood of people being present.Layers of Protection (Fig. Manual Intervention Basic Controls. The end result may be a 5 . Process Alarms. The number of incidents evaluated in a QRA may be very large.

An F-N curve is a plot of cumulative frequency versus consequences (expressed as number of fatalities). Another form of societal risk presentation is a tabulation of the risk of different group sizes of people affected (e. a table. Every chemical process has a certain amount of risk associated with it. Figure 4 shows an F-N curve for a single liquefied flammable gas facility. For a single chemical process in a plant comprised of several process. 1-10. Risks from a process plant environment are always greater than the normal day-to-day risks taken by individuals in their non-industrial environment. 6 . population concentrations) may be quickly identified. hospitals.g. which is a three tiered framework as illustrated in Fig. The presentation of societal risk was originally developed for the nuclear industry.g. A common form of societal risk is known as an F-N (Frequency-Number) curve. It is also common to show contributions of selected incidents to the total F-N curve as this is helpful for identification of major risk contributors. F-N plot). it is necessary to make every effort to minimize risks within the economic constraints of the process as well as ensure compliance with the national regulatory (acceptable) risk standards. 101-1000). Acceptable Risk One cannot eliminate risk entirely. The approach to risk management followed today is based on the ALARP (as low as reasonably practicable) principle. Individual risk representation Common form of presentation of Individual Risk is risk contour plots (Figure 3). schools. 5 below. Risk contours (“isorisk” lines) connect points of equal risk around the facility.g. a graph (e.single-number index. 11-100. A logarithmic plot is usually used because the frequency and number of fatalities range over several orders of magnitude. this risk may be too high since the risks due to multiple exposures are additive. At some point in the design stage someone needs to decide if the risks are "acceptable". Places of particular vulnerability (e. Certainly it would require a substantial effort and considerable expense to design a process with a risk comparable to the risk of sitting at home. individual risk contour plot).g. Societal risk representation Societal risk addresses the number of people who might be affected by hazardous incidents. and/or a risk map (e. From an engineering perspective.

4 Societal Risk Profile (F – N Curve) around a Plant Table 7 Risks to life from employment FAR Risk per person per year Firemen in London 1940 1000 2000 x 10-5 Policemen in Northern Ireland 1973-1992 70 140 x 10-5 Offshore oil and gas 62 125 x 10-5 Health and Safety Executive tolerable limit 50 100 x 10-5 Deep sea fishing 42 84 x 10-5 Coal mining 7.5 x 10-5 Construction 5 10 x 10-5 Sector 7 .Individual Risk Contours around a Plant Fig 3 Individual Risk (Iso-risk) Contours around a Process Facility Societal Risk Profile (F – N Curve) around a Plant Accident Frequency Actual Averaged Number of Fatalities in the Community Fig.3 14.

2 x 10-5 0. Table 8 Risks to life from employment (Guidelines) Risk per person per year Maximum tolerable risk: 10-3 • employees 10-4 • public 10-5 • public (nuclear) Broadly acceptable risk: 10-6 • employees and public Negligible risk: 10-7 • employees and public Fig. 5 Framework for Risk Criteria: As Low as Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) Intolerable risk (Risk cannot be justified The ALARP region Risk is undertaken only if a benefit is desired Tolerable only if risk reduction is impracticable or if its cost is grossly disproportionate to the improvement gained Broadly acceptable region (no need for detailed QRA to demonstrate ALARP) 8 .05 9.7 1. in a group of 1000 people for a working lifetime.2 1.1 x 10-5 0.4 x 10-5 2.Railways All premises covered by the Factories Act (UK) Agriculture Chemical and allied industries All manufacturing industry Vehicle manufacture Clothing manufacture UK Health and Safety Executive broadly acceptable limit 4.2 0.3 x 10-5 1.05 0.6 0.e.. i.4 x 10-5 2.1 x 10-5 FAR= number of fatalities in 108 working hours.8 4 3.6 x 10-5 8 x 10-5 7.

In the above formula where ps = absolute upstream (storage pressure (N/m2). R = gas constant (8314 J/kg-mol /oK).67.g. M = gas molecular weight (kg/kg-mol). A = hole area (m2).8).(2) ⎛ Ps ⎞ ⎛ γ +1 ⎞ If ⎜ ⎟ > ⎜ ⎟ ⎝ Pa ⎠crit ⎝ 2 ⎠ γ /( γ −1) Then the velocity if gas discharging from the leak is sonic. 1. T = storage pressure (N/m2) and temperature (oK).. GAS DISCHARGE γ /( γ −1) ⎛ γ +1 ⎞ We define a ratio r = ⎜ ⎟ ⎝ 2 ⎠ . PS.(1) . We define X.5 9 .(3) Gas mass flow rate through an orifice is given by: ..05. due to runaway reaction or foaming liquid) Liquid discharges • Hole in atmospheric storage tank or other atmospheric pressure vessel or pipe under liquid head • Hole in vessel or pipe containing pressurized liquid below its normal boiling point The following sections show the methodology of estimating their effects quantitatively.1 to 1. such that: X =( 2 (γ +1) /(γ −1) ) γ +1 .9 bar absolute will result in sonic flow.. γ = gas specific heat ratio (Cp/Cv. GV = Cd APS {(γ M / RT ) X }0. Cd = discharge coefficient (~ 0.71 to 2. Thus for releases of most industrial gases to atmosphere.. upstream pressures over ~ 1. which give ‘r’ values of 1. vessel) containing gas under pressure • Relief valve discharge (of vapor only) • Generation of toxic combustion products as a result of fire Two-phase discharges • Hole in pressurized storage tank or pipe containing a liquid above its normal boiling point • Relief valve discharge (e. pa = absolute downstream (atmospheric pressure (N/m2). Examples of Emission Source (Emergency Unplanned Releases) Gas discharge • Hole in equipment (pipe.. dimensionless) Typical values of γ range from 1.SECTION II: ACCIDENT EFFECT ANALYSIS Table below shows the various accident scenarios and consequences feasible in an industrial scenario.(4) Where GV = gas discharge rate (kg/s).

ρl-1)](TsCpl)-1/2 where GLV is total two-phase emission mass rate (kg/s) Λ is latent heat of vaporization (J/kg) is gas density at storage pressure (kg/m3) ρg Ts is the storage temperature (oK) Cpl is specific heat of liquid (K/kg/oK) 10 . Propane vapor pressure 25oC = 8..74. which exceeds r = 1. p = 10 barg = 11 x 105 N/m2 abs pa = 1 x 105 N/m2 abs GL = CdAρl 1/ 2 2( p − pa ) ρl + 2 gH = (0. p = pvp) and equilibrium two-phase choked flow is established during release through a severed pipeline (i. Data: Propane heat capacity ratio = 1. g = acceleration of gravity (9. Propane vapor pressure 25oC = 8. sharp edged orifices is 0. Therefore use a gas discharge equation.3 barg At P = 10 barg. Example: Calculate the discharge of propane from a tank through a 10-mm hole at 10 barg.81 m/s2)..e.64.3 barg Since the total pressure is less than the vapor pressure of propane. the flow is sonic.(6) GLV = [AΛ/(ρg-1.0. p = liquid storage pressure (N/m2 absolute). nonflashing) liquids through a sharp-edged orifice/nozzle is given by: ⎛ 2( p − pa ) ⎞ GL = CdAρl ⎜ .01) 2 4 (490) 2(10)(10 5 ) + 2(9.8)(2) 490 = 1. pa = downstream (ambient) pressure (N/m2 absolute). then the following equation is recommended: . Therefore use the liquid discharge model. 25oC with 2 m liquid head. Here Ps /Pa = 5. X =( Thus X= 0.. ρl = liquid density (kg/m3). LIQUID DISCHARGES Discharge of pure (i.Example: Calculate the discharge rate of propane through a 10-mm hole for conditions of 25oC and 4 barg (5 bara). pipe length > 0..15 × 44 /(8314 × 298)}(0.61) π (0.(5) + 2 gH ⎟ ρl ⎝ ⎠ Where GL = liquid mass emission rate (kg/s).8){π (0.1 m).35)]0. Cd = discharge coefficient (dimensionless).e.01) 2 / 4}(5 ×105 )[{1. Thus. A= discharge hole area (m2).5 = 0.35 2 (γ +1) /(γ −1) ) γ +1 GV = (0.09kg / s 2.0 = 5.6 – 0. H = height of liquid above hole (m) The discharge coefficient for fully turbulent discharges from small. the discharge will initially be liquid.15.e..0/1. Data: Propane density = 490 kg/m3.5 kg/s 3. the discharge must be as a pure gas. TWO-PHASE FLOW If the liquid is stored at saturation (i.

If the fluid path length of the release is very short (through a hole in a thin-walled container). of the liquid emission is "flashed" to vapor as the pressure is reduced to ambient.75 100 0. stored at temperature above the normal boiling point).ρl-1)(TsCpl)/Λ2 Where x is the weight fraction of vapor after depressurizing to atmospheric pressure. in Eq. the fluid flashes external to the hole. With this assumption the mass flow rate is given by Gm = ACo 2ρ f gc (P . that accounts for frictional losses.43 ⎝ 340000 ⎠ Flashing liquids escaping through holes and pipes require very special consideration since two-phase flow conditions may be present. The result will only be valid for liquids stored at a pressure higher than the saturation vapor pressure.. where Lp and D are pipe length and diameter.55 400 4.(9) 11 . then a more complicated numerical model is necessary to calculate the emission rate.e. equilibrium flashing conditions are achieved and the flow is choked. respectively. If the fluid path length through the release is greater than 10 cm (through a pipe or thick-walled container). This fraction is approximated from the thermodynamic relationship ΔT = (T .65 200 0.Tb) oK . Frictional losses for saturated liquids For long pipe lengths the mass emission rate.(8) FV = CpΔT/Hvap Where Ts is process line/vessel temperature and Tb is normal boiling point temperature. F.This equation applies only if the following condition is met: . and the liquid does not have time to flash within the hole. nonequilibrium conditions exist.(6) should be multiplied by a factor. FRACTION FLASHED FROM LIQUID DISCHARGE For superheated liquids (i. f. a fraction. The equations describing incompressible fluid flow through holes apply. Several special cases need consideration. Suggested values for F are given in Table 2.85 50 0.P sat ) .. A good approximation is to assume a choked pressure equal to the saturation vapor pressure of the flashing liquid.(7) x < p(ρg-1..4 x 105 J/kg Hence FV = 2400 ⎜ ⎛ 130 − 69 ⎞ ⎟ = 0. GLV.. Data Cp = average liquid heat capacity (range T to Tb) ~2400 J/kg/oK T = operating temperature (i. Example: Leak of hexane from a pressurized pipeline at 5 bar. Hvap the heat of vapourization at normal pressure. Table 2: Variation of Factor F with Ratio Lp/D Lp/D F 1 0 0.e boiling point at 5 bar = 130oC) Tb = atmospheric boiling point (69oC) Hvap = latent heat of vaporization at Tb = 3. If this condition is not met.

Example: Propylene is stored at 25oC in a tank at its saturation pressure. GLV = ( ) 2 = 7.18 x 103 J/kg K Equation 10 applies to this case.61. Equation 10 is used.0945 m forms in the tank.18 x 10 1. ΔHv = 3.6 kg/s Where.85 x 10-5 m2 ΔH v A v fg gc 7. The saturation vapor pressure of liquid ammonia at this temperature is 0. Equilibrium flashing conditions can be assumed. two-phase mass flow rate is given by: ΔH v A g c GLV = .85 x 10 -5 m 2 = (3. Equation 9 applies for the case of equilibrium flashing conditions.34 x 105 J/kg. P = Psat. Gm = ACo 2ρ f gc (P . Solution. These aerosol droplets are readily entrained by the wind and transported away from the release site. psat = 1. The assumption that the quantity of droplets formed is equal to the amount of material flashed is frequently made.. A leak of diameter 0. The area of the leak is πd 2 (3. For liquids stored at their saturation vapor pressure.14 ) 1 x 10 . ρf is the density of the liquid (mass/volume). Assume a discharge coefficient of 0. At these conditions.4 x 106 Pa.(10) v fg C pT Small droplets of liquid also form in a jet of flashing vapor. for propylene. Co is the discharge coefficient (unitless).968 x 106 Pa and its density is 603 kg/m3.14)(0.15 x 106 Pa. vfg = 0. Estimate the mass flow rate through the hole.2 m = A= 4 4 Using Equation 54.P sat ) = (0. P is the pressure within the tank.Example Liquid ammonia is stored in a tank at 24oC and a pressure of 1.61) (3.774 kg/s 12 . For this case the choked. A 1-cm diameter hole develops in the tank.042 m3/kg. A is the area of the release. and Psat is the saturation vapor pressure of the flashing liquid at ambient temperature.4 x10 6 − 0.0945 m) 2 / 4 x 2(603 kg/m 3 ) [1(kg m/s 2 ) / N] (1.34 x 105 J/kg) (1 N m/J) Cp T 0.968 x 10 6 ) (N / m 2 ) Gm = 97.0(kg m/s 2 ) / N 3 J/kg K ( 298 K) (1N m/J) ) GLV = 0.042 m 3 / kg x ( ( ) ) (2. Determine the mass flow rate through the leak. Cp = 2.

The dispersion phenomenon depends on whether the gas is lighter or heavier than air. and the liquid is well mixed. given by the formula Kg = DmNsh/d . slightly conditions. neutral conditions. moderately unstable conditions. they will be dispersed by atmospheric conditions. E.e. TABLE 3 Pasquill Stability Meteorological Conditionsa. the pool temperature is within a few degrees of ambient and the liquid does not boil). If the rate of evaporation is light to moderate (i. C. given by the correlation NSh = 0.. B. Ge = kgApvpM/R*Tp . SLOWLY EVAPORATING POOL In many cases the hazardous material does not evaporate before it hits the ground surface. Extremely unstable conditions. slightly unstable conditions. Once released.. For light to neutrally buoyant gases the following table allows the choice of applicable stability class (table 3) which in turn is used to choose the dispersion coefficients provided in tables 4 and 5. b Neutral and Positively Buoyant Plume and Puff Models Neutral and positively buoyant plume or puff models are used to predict concentration and time profiles of flammable or toxic materials downwind or a source based on the concept of Gaussian dispersion.(12) 2 Where Dm is the molecular diffusivity of the vapor I air (m /s) d is the effective pool diameter (m) Nsh is the Sherwood number. moderately conditions.8-15200] .037(km/Dm)1/3[(ud/km)0. D. and it is necessary to model the evaporation from a surface pool.b Surface wind Daytime insolation Nighttime conditions speed (m/s) at 10m height Strong Moderate Slight Thin overcast ≤ 3/8 or ≥ low 4/8 cloudiness cloudiness B A-B A <2 F E C B A-B 2-3 E D C B-C B 3-4 D D D C-D C 4-6 D D D D C >6 A.5. Plumes refer to with the travel time (time for cloud to reach location of 13 .(11) Where Ge is the evaporative emission rate (kg/s) A is the pool area (m2) pvp is the vapor pressure (N/m2) M is the molecular weight (kg/kg-mol) * R is the gas constant (J/mol/oK) Tp is the pool temperature (oK) The parameter kg is the mass transfer coefficient (m/s).(13) 2 Where km is the kinematic viscosity of the air (m /s) u is the wind speed at 10 m over the pool (m/s) DISPERSION MODELS Gases can be released either continuously (plume) or instantaneously (puff)... then an empirical formula for slowly evaporating pools can be applied. F.

85 0.14x0. u = wind velocity (m/s) Dispersion coefficients σy and σz for diffusion of Gaussian plumes are available aa predictive formulas for these are also available. σy.34x0.087x1.(14) Where x.90 0.92 A 0.92 0.88 B 0.65 0.63 14 .88 0.02x 0.y. Also because of a lack of data. Table 4 Equations for Pasquill – Gifford Dispersion Coefficients for Plume Dispersion (x = distance downwind from source) Pasquill-Gifford Stability class σz(m) σy (m) or σx (m) 0. Use of such formulas allow for easier computerization of the method.18x0.10x 0.75 B 0.80 Table 5 Equations for Pasquill – Gifford Dispersion Coefficients for Puff Dispersion (x = distance downwind from source) Pasquill-Gifford Stability class σz(m) σy (m) or σx (m) 0.337x 0.128x0.95 0.90 C 0.05x0.71 0.89 F 0.15x0. GV = vapour emission rate (kg/s). The basis for the PasquillGifford model is Gaussian dispersion in both the horizontal and vertical axes. it is often assumed σx = σy. these differ slightly. y = crosswind.60x0.91 E 0. H = height of source above ground level plus plume rise (m). m (x = downwind. z = vertical) c = concentration (kg/m3) at location x.112x0. z . t = time elapsed after release (s) Puff emissions have different spreading characteristics from continuous plumes and different dispersion coefficients (σy.53x0. z.09x 0.z = distance from source..067x0. y .493x A 0. y.91 D 0.06x 0. M = amount released instantaneously (kg).10x0. FORMULA FOR INSTANTANEOUS PUFF EMISSIONS: ⎡ M y2 −( x − ut ) 2 −( z − H ) 2 −( z + H ) 2 ⎤ C ( x.10 0.082x0.70 E 0.73 0.92 D 0.82 F 0.92 C 0.135x0.92 0.90 0.interest) or sampling (or averaging) time (normally 10 min).057x0.(15) Where.093x0. t ) = exp{ ]}⎥ − 2 }{[ exp + exp ⎢ 2 (2π )3/ 2 σ xσ yσ z ⎢ 2σ x 2σ y 2σ z2 2σ z2 ⎥ ⎣ ⎦ . σz). function of distance downwind.04x0. σz = dispersion coefficients (m).195x 0. FORMULA FOR CONTINUOUS PLUME DISPERSION: ⎡ GV − y2 ⎤ ⎡ −( z − H ) 2 −( z + H ) 2 ⎤ exp{ 2 }⎥ ⎢exp{ } + exp{ }⎥ C= ⎢ 2πσ yσ z u ⎢ 2σ y ⎥ ⎣ 2σ z2 2σ z2 ⎦ ⎣ ⎦ .

Chlorine molecular weight.90 = 9. 10 m crosswind. and 2 m height. The leak rate is small.e.85 = 5.3) ⎣ 2(9. Weather conditions correspond to D stability. unconfined vapor cloud explosions or UVCE).. thus dispersion will rapidly ensure that the dense gas behaviour zone is negligible and a Gaussian model is adequate. Explosions can arise from strictly physical phenomena such as the catastrophic rupture of a pressurized gas container or from a chemical reaction such as the combustion of a flammable gas in air. Data: Assume ground roughness is equivalent to urban conditions. assume that the plume is at near ambient temperature (Ta). This equilibrium must be rapid enough that the energy contained in the high-pressure gas is dissipated as a shock wave.082 m3 atm/kg-mol/oK The following equation is used to estimate the wind speed at a height of 2 m can be determined: uz = u10 (z/10)p = 5(2/10)0. for fires the consequences of concern are thermal radiation effects. σz = 0.e.5)(5.3 = + exp exp exp ⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥ 2π (9.4)(3. The consequences of concern for explosions in general are shock wave overpressure effects and projectile effects.093x0. Ta = 20oC (293oK).5) 2 ⎦ ⎣ 2(5. so the mean height for wind estimation is selected as 2 m.128x0. Then. Ambient temperature. When explosions arise from a combustion reaction usually the thermal radiation effects are ignored because the shock wave effects will predominate. R = 0.72 x 10-4 kg/m3 To convert this into ppm (vol).4) 2 ⎦ G RTa (0. Gas constant.4 m Concentration in kg/m3 can be found from Equation (14): C= = 2. pressure p = 1 atm abs..Example on Plume Discharge: Calculate the concentration of chlorine from a source of 0.5 m. Mo = 71. EXPLOSIONS AND FIRES The objective of this section is to review the types of models available for estimation of accidental explosion and fire incident outcomes. These latter reactions can occur both in a confined state (i. The following accident scenarios are considered: • Unconfined Vapor Cloud Explosions and Flash Fires • BLEVE and Fireball • Pool Fire and Jet Fires 15 . Cppm =C ⎡ − y2 ⎤ ⎡ −( z − H ) 2 −( z + H ) 2 ⎤ exp 2 ⎥ ⎢exp + exp ⎢ ⎥ 2πσ yσ z u ⎢ 2σ y ⎥ ⎣ 2σ z2 2σ z2 ⎦ ⎣ ⎦ ⎡ −102 ⎤ ⎡ −(2 − 1) 2 −(2 + 1) 2 ⎤ 0. within buildings or vessels) or an unconfined state (i.3 m/s Dispersion coefficients for D stability evaluated at x = 120 m (using table above) σy = 0.082)(293) x 106 = (2.4) 2 2(5. An explosion can be thought of as a rapid equilibrium of a high-pressure gas with the environment.3 kg/s located 2 m above ground level at a place 120 m downwind.72 x 10-4) x 106 = 92 ppm PM o (1)(71) 2.25 = 3. 5 m/s wind (at 10 m height). Stability class = D. the plume is constrained by ground level. The release occurs at 2 m.

The TNT model is easy to use and has been applied for many CPQRAs. thus if many pieces of process equipment and many structures are present. Figure 1. Process structures contribute to partial confinement and turbulence. A model of UVCEs is the TNT model. Scaled overpressure as a function of scaled distance 16 . EcTNT = heat of combustion of TNT (44374765 kJ/kg or 1943-2049 Btu/lb. If this cloud is ignited before the cloud is diluted below its LFL. typically 1 bar (15 psi) or less. • Peak overpressures of UVCEs are much less than with detonations. • The presence of some confinement/obstacles may be necessary for transition to UVCE.Unconfined Vapor Cloud Explosions and Flash Fires When a large amount of a volatile flammable material is rapidly dispersed to the atmosphere. η = empirical explosion yield (or efficiency) (ranges from 0. It is based on the assumption of equivalence between the flammable material and TNT. These estimates range from 1 ton to 15 tons. it is likely that a flash fire will make the transition a UVCE.10). a UVCE or flash fire will occur. The main consequence in a UVCE is the shock wave that results while the main consequence in a flash fire is the thermal radiation. Ec = lower heat of combustion of flammable gas (kJ/kg or Btu/lb).. and positive phase durations of 20-100 ms.01 to 0. • Materials with higher fundamental burning velocities can produce easier transition to UVCE for a given release quantity.(16) E cTNT where W = equivalent mass of TNT (kg or lb). Various researchers have concluded that • There may be some minimum mass of flammable material that is required to allow transition from a flash fire to UVCE. M = mass of flammable material released. a vapor cloud forms and disperses. Two important mechanisms for flame acceleration are thermal expansion and turbulence. factored by an explosion yield term: ηME c W= .

. A BLEVE is a sudden release of a large mass of pressurized superheated liquid to the atmosphere The primary cause is usually an external flame impinging on the shell of a vessel above the liquid level.(19) Center height of fireball (m) HBLEVE = 0.(23) where τ = atmospheric transmissivity (fraction energy transmitted: 0 to 1).. the scaled distance (ZG) to 5 psi (Pso m/kg1/3.000 x 46350 4650 = = 4530 kg From Figure above. E = surface emitted flux (kW/m2) F21= view factor (dimensionless) The atmospheric transmissivity τ. This section describes the methods used to calculate the effects of the vessel rupture and the fireball that results if the released liquid is flammable and is ignited. x = path length.3 Dmax .. Assume an explosion yield (η) = 0. Converting scaled distance to real distance: RG = ZG W1/3 = 7 m/kg1/3 x (4530 kg)1/3 = 113 m 0. The radiation received by a target (for the duration of the BLEVE incident) is given by QR = τEF21 . weakening the container and leading to sudden shell rupture.09 . This causes a reduction in radiation received at target locations.. If the released liquid is flammable.26 . Pw = water partial pressure (Pascals.(18) Fireball duration (s) tBLEVE = 0. N/m2). A pressure relief valve does not protect against this mode of the failure. calculate the distance to 5 psi overpressure (equivalent to heavy building damage) of an UVCE of 10 short tons of propane.(20) Initial ground level hemisphere diameter (m) Dinitial = 1. The correlation formula that accounts for humidity is: τ = 2.(22) where QR = radiation received by a black body target (kW/m2) τ = transmissivity (dimensionless)..05 x 10. typically increasing its volume over 200 times. Useful formulas for BLEVE physical parameters are Peak fireball diameter (m) Dmax = 6.325 .Example Using the TNT equivalent model. Assume EcTNT = 4650 kJ/kg From Equation (16).825 M0. is an important factor. Thermal radiation is absorbed and scattered by the atmosphere.(21) where M = initial mass of flammable liquid (kg). W = ηME c E cTNT = 0. Lower heat of combustion of propane (Ec) = 46350 kJ/kg. however.33 atm) = 7 BLEVE and Fireball A Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE) occurs when there is a sudden loss of containment of a pressure vessel containing a superheated liquid or liquefied gas.48 M0. Data: Mass = 10 tons.05.75 Dmax .02(Pwx)-0. This is sufficient to generate a pressure wave and fragments. a fireball may result. distance from flame surface to target (m) 17 .. It should be noted. The initial diameter is used to describe the short duration initial ground level hemispherical flaming-volume before buoyancy forces lift it to a semisteady height. that a BLEVE can occur due to any mechanism that results in the sudden failure of containment allowing a superheated liquid to flash.

rather than for community risk. as the latter requires the flame temperature.. D = sphere diameter (m) r = distance from sphere center to target along the ground (m) BLEVE Schematic Dmax HBLEVE X Target r Pool Fires and Jet Fires Pool fires and jet fires are common fire types resulting from fires over pools of liquid or from pressurized releases of gas and/or liquid. D2 . Pool Size: In most cases. Typical heat fluxes in BLEVEs (200-350 kW/m2) are much higher than in pool fires as the flame is not smoky. Dmax = peak fireball diameter (m).25-0. a geometric view factor for a sphere to a surface normal to the sphere (not the horizontal or vertical components) should be used.40.4.Thermal radiation is usually calculated using surface emitted flux.g. unlike those for dispersion and UVCE. They tend to be localized in effect and are mainly of concern in establishing the potential for domino effects and employee safety zones. For a continuous leak. Pool fire models have been applied to LNG spills as well as more common flammable materials. TBLEVE= fireball duration (s) As the effects of a BLEVE mainly relate to human injury. characteristic for the material. This fraction is typically 0. typically 0. Typical values for hydrocarbons are in the range 0.. E. pool size is fixed by the size of release and by local physical barriers (e. Pool Fire Models Burning Rate: Large pool fires burn at a constant vertical rate. Frad MH c . are made up of a range of independent submodels and the best pool fire model will be based on the selection of the most appropriate submodels..05 kg/m2s (gasoline) to 0. the maximum diameter is reached when the product of burning rate and surface area equals the 18 . M = mass of LPG in BLEVE (kg).(24) E= π ( Dmax ) 2 t BLEVE where E = surface emitted flux (kW/m2).(25) F21 = 2 4r where F21 = view factor between sphere and target surface.25-0. Pool and jet fire models. The most common application of jet fire models is the specification of exclusion zones around flares. on an infinite flat plane. dikes. rather than the Stefan-Boltzmann equation. The surface heat flux is based on the radiative fraction of the total heat of combustion. Hc = heat of combustion (kJ/kg).12 (LPG). Frad = radiation fraction. sloped drainage areas).

as this radiant fraction is high for smoky pool fires) then the radiant heat. Geometric View Factor: The thermal radiation received at a target location is determined by the geometric view factor (ignoring atmospheric absorption).13 kg/m2s x 43. The surface emitted power unit per area can be estimated using the radiation fraction method as follows: (i) Calculate total combustion power (based on burning rate and pool area) (ii) Multiply by radiation fraction to determine total power radiated (iii) Determine flame surface area (commonly use only the cylinder side area) (iv) Divide radiated power by flame surface area.700 kJ/kg x π (0.35 (conservative.35 x 2.(27) 2 Where Qx = thermal radiation received at distance x (kW/m ).35.2 kW/m2 leakage rate.8 x 106 kW = 9. more rigorous formulas or tables are used. Circular pools are normally assumed. 20oC and 50% relative humidity../5 x 25)2 m2 = 2.0 x 106 = 5.700 kJ/kg. τ = atmospheric transmissivity (dimensionless). kg/m2s. Data: burning rate = 013 kg/m2s. x = distance from point source to target (m).02(2320x100)-0. QR = total heat radiated (kW).0 x 106 m-2 2 2 4πx 4π 100 Using Equation (23) for a distance of 100 m: τ = 2. Weather conditions are no wind. Fp = point source view factor (m-2) 19 .. QR = 0.8 x 106 kW Assume radiant fraction for hydrocarbon fires = 0. Typical values of H/D are in the range 2-3. The simplest shape factor is the point source that assumes all radiation arises in a single point and is received by an object oriented perpendicular to this: . m2 Q = 0. where dikes lead to square or rectangular shapes.66 The received thermal flux at 100 m is then calculated using Equation (27) Qx = τQRFp = 0. an equivalent diameter may be used. FP = 1 1 = = 8. Flame Height: Many observations of pool fires show that there is an approximate ratio of flame height to diameter. Received Thermal Flux: The received thermal flux (on a target) from a pool fire is given by Qx = τQRFp . A = pool area.66 x 0.(26) Fp = 1/ 4π x 2 -2 Where Fp = point source view factor (m ). kJ/kg. View factors are discussed in texts on thermal radiation.8 x 106 kJ/s = 2.98 x 106 Kw x 8. This must be applied to the total heat output. QR can be estimated. The radiation fraction of total combustion power is often quoted in the range 0.09 = 0.02(Pwx)-0.09 = 2. The point source view factor provides a reasonable estimate of received flux at distance far from the flame.15-0. vapor pressure of water at 50% relative humidity and 20oC = 232 Pa Procedure: (1) Ignore flame tilt as there is no wind (2) Estimate total heat released Q = MbEcA where Mb = burning rate. At closer distances. not to the flux per unit area. heat of combustion = 43.Example: Determine the thermal flux received at a distance of 100 m from a pool fire contained in a 25-m-diameter tank dike. Upper values for other hydrocarbon pool fires lie in the range 110-170 kW/m2. but smoke obscuration often reduces this to 20-60 kW/m2.8 x 105 kW. Surface Emitted Power: LPG and LNG fires radiate up to 250 kW/m2. Ec = heat of combustion.

50 4. t = exposure time (s. Standard curve fitting techniques are used to determine the best fit straight line. ESTIMATION OF EFFECTS OF ACCIDENTS: PROBIT ANALYSIS Many methods exist for representing the response-dose curve..72 4. M = LPG release rate (kg/sec.08 4.87 4.75 4.36 3.92 4.9 t0.(28) L = 9.72 3.80 4.12 3.42 4.4 x 250.12 4.96 4.90 4. The dimensions of the torch flame which is assumed to be conical.( 32) 9 3.5 = 91 x 250.53 4. are given by (for LPG): .67 4.1 m0.59 3. the side-on hazard zone for 50% lenthality is 54 m from the jet flame centerline. This relationship is tabulated in Table 6.(31) P= exp ⎜ − ⎟du ∫ ⎝ 2⎠ 2π −∞ Equation A provides a relationship between the probability P and the probit variable Y. From Equations (28)-(30) the jet flame dimensions are determined: L = 9.47 = 1.50 = side-on hazard range to 50% lethality (m.61 4. but subject to 10<t<300s)The end-on hazard zone is 85% of the side-on hazard zone. the probit (probit = probability unit) method is particularly suited. while response implies the human/property damage caused by the accident. The probit variable Y is related to the probability P (of a specified level of response) by: Y −5 ⎛ u2 ⎞ 1 . but subject to 1< m< 3000 kg/s).4 m0.01 4. Here dose refers to the intensity of accident outcome (air-borne concentration of a toxic material.69 4.77 4. V.45 4.05 4.47 where L = length of torch flame (m).48 4. but subject to r>W).(30) Rs. Table 7 shows a variety of probit equations for a number of different types of exposures.50 = 1.59 4.95 3.82 4.52 3. but several reviews have been published.4 m0. overpressure due to an explosion or radiation intensity due to a fire).39 4.29 4.66 4.95 .87 3..67 2.16 4.26 4.1 m0.. The causative factor represents the dose. rs. Example: Determine the 50% lethality range for a pressurized release of LPG @ 25 kg/s lasting for 100s.97 20 Table 6: The Transformation from Percentages to Probits 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -2.77 3.25L .Jet Fire Models: Jet fire modeling is not as well developed as for pool fires.25 3.19 4.56 4.36 4.85 4..9x1000.50 = 1.33 4.64 4.47 = 54 m Thus. W = jet flame conical half-width at flame tip (m).25L = 11 m (half width) rs.45 3. The probit relationship of Equation 31 transforms the typical sigmoid shape of the normal response versus does curve into a straight line when plotted using a linear probit scale. For single exposures.9 t0. The probit variable Y is computed from the following equation: Probit = Y = k1 + k2 ln V % 0 10 20 30 40 .5 W = 0.92 3.23 4.82 3.(29) ..5 = 45 m W = 0.

03 5.8 2. the probability is 100%.61 5.58 5.37 5. For a probit more than 8.08 6.992 (or 99.81 6.00 5.67.55 5. For a probability of 0.23 5.29 0.20 5.1 7.4 7.95 the probability is 0.48 (or 48%) 6.33 5.91 po Eardrum ruptures -15. Table 7: Probit correlations for exposures.6 1. the causative variable V is representative of the magnitude of the exposure.65 5.92 ln (602 x 60) = 5. Type of injury or damage Causative Probit variable Parameters V k1 k2 Fire: Burn deaths from fire -14.95 6.2 7.56 teIe4/3/104 te= effective time of exposure (s).13 6. Ie= effective radiation intensity received by target (W/m2) Explosion: Deaths from lung hemorrhage po -77.15 5. the probability is 0.29 + 0.29 + 0.36 the probability is 0.79 o 2 p = peak overpressure (N/m ) Toxic release: Chlorine deaths -8.58 4.04 6. the probit is 5.3 7.71 6.93 o p Structural damage -23.5 7.23 7.48 0.88 0.995 (or 99. the probit is 3.1 (or 10%) .28 5.25 5.50 60 70 80 90 % 99 5.84 3.77 6.64 0.6 7.52 5.05 0.88 6.09 Examples: 1.92 po Glass breakage -18.1 6.2%) 7.46 5. For a probit of 4.67 6.28 0.5%).09.92 C2T C= concentration (ppm).10 5.92 6.99 6.75 0.33 5. 21 .13 5.9 2.1 2.58 5.88 5.41 5.64 5.74 6. For a probability of 0.9 8.18 5.7 7.47 5.44 5.08 5.36 5. For a probability of 0.05 (or 5%) 5.01 .8 7. For a probit of 7.55 0.51 5.84 6. the probit is 7.36 the probability is 0. the probability of fatality is 50%.8 (or 80%).05 5.0 7.41 0.34 0.50 5.39 5.31 5.33 0. T= time interval (min) Example: What is the chance of human fatality for a 60 min exposure to 60 ppm chlorine? Ans: From table 5.72 2.Using table 3.41 5.75 5. Ychlorine = – 8. For a probit less than 2.92 ln (C2t) = – 8. 8.18 7. For a probit of 3.

the chance is negligible) If overpressure is 15 psi (1 atm): Y = – 77. leading to fatality unless rescue is effected quickly.1 + 6. Thus.(33) nuclear explosion data..1 + 6. Extreme pain within 20 seconds and movement to shelter is instinctive.9 (From table 6. t = duration of exposure (sec). also.1 + 6. 5.91 ln 34455 = – 4. 15psi overpressure is the approximate threshold for fatality.9 + 2.91 ln (103365) = 2. is: Yburn deaths = – 14.Table 9 Thermal Radiation Impact Criteria Criterion Level (kW/m2) 40 20 12. No fatality 140 mbar (2 psi) • House uninhabitable and badly cracked 210 mbar (3 psi) • Reinforced structures distort • Storage tanks fail • 20% chance of fatality to a person in a building 350 mbar (5 psi) • House uninhabitable • Wagons and plant items overturned • Threshold of eardrum damage • 50% chance of fatality for a person in a building and 15% chance of fatality for a person in the open 700 mbar (10 psi) • Threshold of lung damage • 100% chance of fatality for a person in a building or in the open. 22 . Example: What is chance of death from lung hemorrhage for an exposure to 5 psi blast pressure? From Table 7 Yfatality from hemorrhage = – 77.7) x 101300 N/m2 = 34455 N/m2 Hence Y = – 77.5 psi) 90% glass breakage No fatality and very low probability of injury 70 mbar (1 psi) • Internal partitions & joinery damaged.68 The probability of fatality is ~ 1%.5 Likely Effects at Criterion Level Immediate fatality. complete demolition of houses Relatively high blast overpressures (>15 psig) are necessary to produce fatality (primarily due to lung hemorrhage).1 Threshold value below which escape should always be possible.91 ln p0 Now p0 = 5 psi = (5/14. based on . The probit method has found less use for thermal injury than it has for toxic effects. I = thermal radiation intensity (W/m2) Table 8 Explosion Impact Criteria Explosion Overpressure Effect • • 35 m bar (0. Incapacitation. A probit model to estimate injury levels for a given thermal dose from pool and flash fires. Limiting flux for secondary fires.56 ln tI 4/ 3 /10000 Where Pr = probit. but can be repaired • Probability of injury is 10%.

e. I = 61 kW/m ..e-λt The failure density function f(t) is defined as: f(t) = dP(t) = λ e−λ t dt ∞ . suitable for prolonged exposures. on the average.0 (Table 4).9 + 2. I = ⎡104 e[(Pr + 14. Between these two periods. 000) 4 / 3 /10000 ⎤ = 3. Yburn deaths = –14. Equation 1 assumes a constant failure rate.. ∫ f(t)dt = 1 .56 ln tI 4 / 3 /10000 = – 14.(1) R(t) = e-λt where. and is given by . The overall probability of a failure in a process is dependent on the nature of this interaction. when t the reliability goes to 0. 23 . Pr = 5. may be inappropriate for such incidents. especially for short duration incidents such as BLEVEs (on the order of 10-20s). P..Example 1.R(t) = 1 . With adequate data it can be shown that. For t = 100 s. λ. The complement of the reliability is called the failure probability (or sometimes the unreliability).00 ⎣ ⎦ Hence using table 6 the chance of fatality is ~ 2 % 2.(4) Equations 1through 5 are only valid for a constant failure rate. Determine the thermal flux necessary to cause 50% fatalities for 10 and 100 seconds of exposure. .9 + 2.(3) The area under the plot of complete failure density function is unity. Data is collected on the failure rate of a particular hardware component. Many components exhibit a typical "bathtub" failure rates. I = 11 kW/m2 This example demonstrates the importance of duration of exposure.9) / 2. This is called the average failure rate and is represented by λ with units of faults/time. 0 The time interval between two failures of the same component is called the mean time to failures (MTTF) and is given by the first moment of the failure density function: E(t) = MTTF = ∫ f(t)dt = λ 0 ∞ 1 . Equation (33) can be rearranged to solve for the thermal radiation intensity I: For t = 10 s. A fixed criterion. the failure rate is reasonably constant and Equation 2 through 4 are valid. SECTION III: RELIABILITY THEORY Equipment failures or faults in a process occur as a result of a complex interaction and failures of the individual components.56] / t ⎤ ⎣ ⎦ 2 3/ 4 . Using the probit method. t) is given by: . For 50% fatality. The failure rate is highest when the component is new (due to defects in manufacturing/assembly) and when it is old (due to wear and tear in aging). the component fails after a certain period of time.. i. The probability the component will not fail during the time interval (0.56 ln ⎡ 20(20. What is the chance of human fatality for 20s exposure to 20kW/m2? Using Eq 33 (or table 7). R is the reliability.(2) P(t) = 1 .

These values depend on manufacturing practices employed by manufacturer.044 Strip chart recorder 0. Process components interact in two different ways.044 Level measurement meter (liquids) 1.22 Thermocouple 0.∏ (1 . Table 1 Failure Rate Data for various selected process components Instrument Faults/year Controller 0. or top event. design of the component.(7) .52 Thermometer 0. In some cases.Pi ) Failure rate data for a number of typical process components are provided in Table 1.. the physico-chemical environment in which the component functions etc. a process failure requires the simultaneous failure of a number of components operating in a "parallel" mode.42 Stepper motor 0.(6) Where Ri is the reliability of an individual process component. For series components the overall system process reliability..(8) Psys = 1. Process components also interact in series.(5) where n is the total number of components and Pi is the failure probability of each.44 FAULT TREES Fault trees are a deductive method for identifying ways in which hazards can lead to accidents. materials of construction.70 Pressure gauge 1. is: Rsys = ∏R i =1 n i =1 n i . Rsys = 1 - ∏ (1 .13 Alarm Indicator lamp 0.29 Control valve 0. In such a case the system unreliability is: Psys = ∏P i =1 n i . in that. and works backwards towards the various scenarios or events that can cause the accident.022 Pressure switch 0.60 Hand valve 0..R ) i i =1 n . In such cases the overall process failure probability is computed from the individual component failure probabilities.Interaction between Process Units Accidents in chemical plants are usually the result of a complicated interaction between a number of process components. they are connected in a "Series" structure within a system. Events in fault 24 ..14 Solenoid valve 0. The approach starts with a well-defined accident. Rsys. These are average values determined at a typical chemical process facility.41 Pressure relief valve 0.027 Valve positioner 0.

and environmental abnormities.tree are not restricted to hardware failures. It can also include software failure. Exothermic Reactor System 25 . For reasonably complex chemical processes. The AND logic gate is used for describing processes that interact in parallel. a number of additional logic functions are needed to construct a fault tree. Below is an example of a fault tree for a reactor system for which 2 safety systems are available (i) an alarm system and (ii) a shutdown system. OR gate is used for describing events that need occur alone to result in output event. human error.

Example: Consider the chemical reactor system shown in Figure below.Fault Tree for Exothermic Reactor System EVENT TREES An event tree begins with an initiating event and works towards a final result or consequence through steps. 26 . The second safety function is the operator noticing the high reactor temperature during normal inspection. The event tree for a loss of coolant initiating event is shown in the next figure. This system features a high temperature alarm that has been installed to warn the operator of a high temperature within the reactor. These safety systems may in turn either fail or succeed in their operation. The final safety feature is invoked by the operator performing an emergency shutdown of the reactor. In constructing the event tree these safety functions are written across the page in the order in which they logically occur. The operator may also notice the high temperature on his own during normal inspection. When an accident occurs in a plant. various safety systems come into operation in order to prevent the accident from propagating. The event tee approach includes the effects of an event initiation followed by the impact of the safety systems on the propagation of the accident based on the performance of the safety systems. The third safety function is the operator re-establishing the coolant flow by correcting the problem within time. The first safety function is the high temperature alarm. Four safety functions are identified.

The open circles indicate safe conditions and the circles with the crosses represent unsafe conditions.Exothermic Reactor System If in a certain situation a safety function does not apply or is not relevant. The sequence description and consequences are indicated on the extreme right hand side of the event tree. the horizontal line is continued through the safety function without branching. 27 .

Event Tree for the Exothermic Reactor System 28 .

Estimation of accident consequence: source and dispersion models 2. The probability of fatality from a hazardous incident at a particular location is either 0 or 1. Using industry-wide historical data. II. • Only two weather conditions occur. An explosion resulting from detonation of an unstable chemical. • There are people located around the site. flammable liquid from a pipe might catch fire immediately (jet fire). and half of the time it blows from the southwest. Incident Outcomes The identified incidents may have one or more outcomes. In the company X the following apply: • All hazards originate at a single point. and is used primarily to illustrate the QRA methodology. the following realistic scenarios are identified for X: I. These simple conditions. The specific population distribution will be described later in the example. a leak of volatile. The atmospheric stability class and wind speed are always the same. For example. fault and event tree models Define QRA objectives and describe system Identify hazards and incident scenarios Estimate incident consequences Estimate incident frequency Estimate risk Use results to manage and reduce risk QRA Procedure Incident Identification It is important to choose the correct set of representative accident scenarios for QRA. Half of the time the wind blows from the northeast. Estimation of Accident frequency: reliability. when the information is needed. • Incident consequences are simple step functions. A release of a flammable. The concepts and techniques used to derive the risk measures from the underlying incident frequency and consequence information are the same as would be used for a more complex QRA study (steps shown in Fig below ) which use a variety of models. where most phenomena occur as simple step functions. toxic gas resulting from failure of a vessel. depending on the sequence of events which follows the original incident. Estimation of effects of accident effects on human and property: probit Analysis 3. as well as HAZID techniques.QRA: A CASE STUDY The chemical plant X considered is a very simple one. allow easy hand calculation of various risk measures. and the description of the impact zones of incidents as simple geometric areas. might form a flammable cloud which 29 . These models include: 1.

and the consequence and effects are unaffected by the weather. The material also might not ignite at all. toxic cloud) and its event tree is also shown in fig 2. if these conditions influence the potential damage resulting from the incident. Estimation of a physical concentration of material or energy at each location starting from the point of origin of the incident: radiant heat from a fire. for Incident I there is only one incident outcome and one incident outcome case. Some incident outcomes are further subdivided into incident outcome cases. all persons within 200 meters of the explosion center are killed (probability of fatality = 1. all persons within 100 meters of the explosion center are 30 . the explosion has only one possible outcome (the explosion). Therefore. vapor cloud fire. differentiated by the weather conditions and wind direction. toxic gas. all persons beyond this distance are unaffected (probability of fatality = 0). the environment. Consequence and Impact Analysis Incident impact estimation requires two steps. Incident Event Tree for Incident I I – Explosion Incident Outcomes Incident Outcome Cases II – Explosion Event Tree for Incident II IIA – Ignition IIA – Ignition (Explosion) IIB1 – Toxic Cloud to Southwest IIB – No Ignition Toxic Cloud IIB2 – Toxic Cloud to Northeast II – Flammable Toxic Gas Release Fig 2. toxic material dose-response relationships (probit equations). resulting in a toxic vapor cloud. or property – for example. Incident I. the release of flammable. These are referred to as potential accident scenarios or as incident outcomes. 1.could ignite and burn (flash fire) or explode (vapor cloud explosion).0). The application of consequence and impact models to facility X yields simple impact zone estimates for the identified incident outcome cases: • Incident Outcome Case I (explosion) – the explosion is centered at the center point of the facility. overpressure from an explosion. (Note that for simplicity only two wind directions are assumed for the outcomes cases). Event Trees for the Incidents I and II The Incident II. this is represented by an event tree with no branches (Fig 2). vapor cloud explosion. concentration of a toxic material in the atmosphere 2. has several possible outcomes (jet fire. • Incident Outcome Case IIA (explosion) – the explosion is centered at the center point of the facility. Estimation of the effects (impact) that this physical concentration of material or energy has on people. Event tree logic may be used to identify the incident outcomes and outcome cases.

Figure 3 illustrates these impact zone. the individual risk from that incident outcome case IRx. Incident Frequency Analysis Reliability. within the impact zone for each incident outcome case.I .i IRx. all persons beyond this distance are unaffected (probability of fatality = 0).(2) IRx. and from the Southwest 50% of the time.y. IIB2 (toxic gas clouds) – all persons in a pie shaped segment of radius 400 meters downwind and 22. Individual Risk Estimation Individual risk is defined as “The risk to a person in the vicinity of a hazard. Figure 5 is an individual risk contour plot for this example problem. the nature of the injury for both individual and societal risk calculations will be immediate fatality resulting from fire.y. The four impact zones from the four incidents are superimposed on a map of the region of the plant and its surroundings as shown in Figure 5. ∑ IR i =1 n x. y Each incident outcome case has an equal impact (probability of fatality pf. We assume that the following values obtain for the 2 potential incidents on X: • Incident I – Frequency = 1 x 10-6 events per year • Incident II – Frequency = 3 x 10-6 events per year (for Incident II – Ignition Probability = 0. For example. The above considerations give the frequency estimates for the four incident outcome cases (shown in the event trees of Figure 4). fault and event tree methods are used for accident frequency estimation. The total individual risk of fatality at each geographical location is then determined by adding the individual risk from all incident outcome case impact zones that impact that location (using Equation 1).y (probability of fatality per year) IRx. application of Equation 1 gives the results listed in Table 1.y = where.50 width are killed (probability of fatality = 1.0).I = fi pf. y. and the time period over which the injury might occur.i = probability that incident outcome case I will result in a fatality at location x. the likelihood of the injury occurring. Similar calculations for the other areas in Figure 5 give the results summarized in Table 2. with the individual risk values for each area listed in Table 2. in the area labeled “C” in Figure 5. Therefore. explosion.i = the individual risk of fatality at geographical location x.i is zero. all persons outside this area are unaffected (probability of fatality = 0).. This includes the nature of the injury to the individual. Individual Risk Contours Individual risk at any point is given by: IRx.0). 31 .y from incident outcome case i (probability of fatality per year) n = the total number of incident outcome cases considered in the analysis = frequency of incident outcome case i.y. or exposure to toxic vapors.killed (probability of fatality = 1. (per year) fi pf. • Incident Outcome Cases IIBI. IRx.i = 1) throughout its geographical impact zone.y.i is equal to the frequency of that incident outcome case (Equation 2).” In this example..(1) .y = the total individual risk of fatality at geographical location x. Outside the impact zone.33) We further assume that annually. the wind blows from the Northeast 50% of the time.

Figure 6 is the individual risk profile in the northeast direction. of fatality = 0 Prob. of fatality = 1.0 Triangle Height = 400m. of fatality = 0 Prob.0 Circle Diameter = 100m Prob.0 Prob. of fatality = 0 Incident Outcome Case I Incident Outcome Case IIA Triangle Height = 400m. Impact zones for Incident Outcome Cases Individual Risk Profile (Risk Transect) The individual risk profile (risk transect) is a graph showing the individual risk as a function of distance from the source of the risk in a particular direction. of fatality = 0 Incident Outcome Case IIB1 Incident Outcome Case IIB2 Fig 3.0 N E Prob.50 Prob. Angle = 22.50 Prob.Circle Diameter = 200m Prob. of fatality = 1. For the example problem.i IRi (per year) -6 I 10 1 10-6 IIB2 10-5 1 10-5 1. For drawing this transect the necessary numbers are shown in tables 2 and 3.1 x 10-5 IR = ∑ IRi = 32 . Table 1 Individual Risk Calculation for Area “C” In Figure 5 Incident Outcome Case fi (per year) Pf. of fatality = 1. of fatality = 1. Angle = 22.

33 II – Flammable Toxic Gas Release. Frequency (f) of Incident (final) Outcome Cases Incident Outcome Case IIB2 Effect Zone N E I E C G A Incident Outcome Case IIA Effect Zone Incident Outcome Case IIB1 Effect Zone B D F H J Incident Outcome Case I Effect Zone K Figure 5. f = 3x10 . = 0. f = 10 – 6/yr Prob.Incident Event Tree for Incident I I – Explosion f = 10 – 6/yr Incident Outcomes Incident Outcome Cases II – Explosion f = 10 – 6/yr Event Tree for Incident II IIA – Ignition Prob. = 0. = 0. Individual Risk Contour Map 33 . f = 10 – 6/yr IIA – Ignition (Explosion) f = 10 – 6/yr IIB1 – Toxic Cloud to Southwest.67 Prob.6/yr IIB – No Ignition Toxic Cloud Prob. = 0.5 IIB2 – Toxic Cloud to Northeast.5 Figure 4.

IIA 1. IIB2 2.1 x 10-5 I.6 10 . IIA.1 x 10-5 > 400 200 – 400 100 – 200 0 – 100 10 .1 x 105 IIB2 1.0 x 10-6 Table 3 Individual Risks in the Northeast Direction Region Incidents Impacting Total Individual Risk of Region Fatality (per year) Beyond E None 0 E IIB2 1. IIB2 1.1 x 10-5 I. IIB1 2.4 Individual Risk per year 10 .0 x 10-5 C I.1 x 10-5 I. IIA 1. IIA.Region (see Figure 5) A B C D E F G H I Distance (m) Table 2 Individual Risk Results Incidents Impacting Region Total Individual Risk of Fatality (per year) I.7 100 200 300 400 500 Distance from the Plant in the Northeast (m) Figure 6.5 10 .0 x 10-5 IIB1 1. IIA.1 x 10-5 I 1.0 x 10-5 I. Individual Risk Transect in the Northeast direction 34 . IIB2 1.1 x 10-5 I. B1 1.1 x 10-5 A I. IIB. IIB2 2.

. per year Table 5 summarizes the cumulative frequency results.i . 35 .(5) ∑ x. The data in Table 5 can be plotted to give the societal risk F-N Curve in Figure 8. Fi = frequency of incident outcome case i. Table 4 summarizes the estimated number of fatalities for the four incident outcome cases. Societal risk measures are important for managing risk in a situation where there is a potential for accidents impacting more than one person. and counting the number of people inside the impact zone. the adverse outcome considered is immediate fatality resulting from fire. this calculation can be done graphically by superimposing the impact zones from Figure 3 onto the population distribution in Figure 7. explosion.i in Equation 5 equals 1. In this example. Population Distribution in and around CP Societal Risk Calculation Societal risk measures the risk to a group of people. Societal risk measures estimate both the potential size and likelihood of incidents with multiple adverse outcomes. per year .(6) Curve: FN = Fi . For the example. Incident Outcome Case IIB2 Effect Zone N E 6 3 10 Incident Outcome Case IIA Effect Zone Incident Outcome Case IIB1 Effect Zone 2** 4** X 1** Incident Outcome Case I Effect Zone K Indicates X people at specified location ** Employees in on-site buildings Figure 7. y where Ni is the number of fatalities resulting from Incident Outcome Case i.. Because the impact zones for the example are simple. for all outcome cases i for which Ni ≥ N ∑ i where: FN = frequency of all incident outcome cases affecting N or more people. pf. as determined by: Ni = Px .Figure 7 shows the location of people in the area surrounding the CP facility. or exposure to toxic vapors. The first step in generating an F-N Curve for the example problem is to calculate the number of fatalities resulting from each incident outcome case. F-N Curve A common measure of societal risk is the Frequency-Number (F-N) curve. The data in Table 4 must then be put into cumulative frequency form to plot the F-N . y Pf .

per year 10 .0 x 10-6 >13 + None 0 10 .4 Frequency of N or more Fatalities . IIB1 1.Table 4 Estimated Numbers of Fatalities from Each Incident Outcome Case Incident Outcome Case Frequency Fi Estimated Number of Fatalities (per year) I 1.0 x 10-5 0 IIB1 1. Societal Risk F-N Curve 36 .6 10 . IIB2 2. IIB1.x 10-5 13 + I 1.7 1 10 100 Number of Fatalities (N) Figure 8.1 x 10-5 6+ I.0 x 10-5 6 -5 IIB2 1.5 10 .0 x 10 3 Table 5 Cumulative Frequency Data for F-N Curve Number of Fatalities Incident Outcome Cases Total Frequency N Included FN (per year) 3+ I.0 x 10-6 13 IIA 1.

HAZOP: An Introduction The Hazard and Operability study (HAZOP) systematically questions the design to discover how it can deviate from the design intention. reverse. These solutions are reviewed and accepted by the HAZOP team before implementation. The main process parameters with their commonly used guide words are as follows: Main Process Parameters flow temperature. Where deviations result in hazards. actions are identified. To enable a thorough examination. reaction. Each part is subjected to a number of questions based on a set of guidewords for the project. The application of an accepted set of guide words ensures that every conceivable deviation is considered. The purpose is to identify all possible deviations from the design conditions and to identify all the hazards associated with these deviations. The basic concept behind HAZOP studies is that processes work well when operating under design conditions. the plant is split into a number of parts. deviations from the process design conditions cause hazards and lead to operability problems. other than 37 . level composition. The questions are formulated using a number of guide words to ensure a consistent and structured approach. as well as. The guide words are normally applied in conjunction with a series of process parameters to arrive at a meaningful deviation. This requires the design engineer to review and suggest solutions to either remove the hazard or reduce its risk to an acceptable level. part of. lower no. pressure. less. less. phase Commonly Used Guide Words no. sneak (leak) higher. more. more.

HAZARD AND OPERABILITY STUDY REORT Project title: Project number: P&ID number: Line number: Guide word Deviation Cause Consequences Sheet Date: Chairman: Study team: Safeguards Numbe r By Action Details Reply accepted of 38 .

possible runaway –do- Action required 1. Control valve fails closed Plugged cooling coils 1. Select valve to fail open Install filter with maintenance procedure Install cooling water flow meter and low flow alarm Install 39 . 2. 2. 2. Loss of cooling.Exothermic Reactor: HAZOP CASE STUDY Item 1A Study node Cooling coils Process parameters Flow Deviations (guide words) No HAZOP Study applied to the Exothermic Reactor Possible causes Possible consequences 1.

reactant conc. Monomer feed continues. 2. 2. 4. 2. Cooling system capacity limited temp. increases 1. Interlock between cooling flow and reactor feed 1. Temperature rises. 4. None.2 Install check calve 1D 1E 1F As well as Part of Reverse 1G 1H 1I 1J 1K 2A Stirrer Temperature Agitation Other than. possible runaway –do- 5. Loss of cooling. 3.2 See 1A. Not possible here 1. possible accumulation of unreacted materials 2. 1 Low water supply temperature 1. Monomer feed valve must fail closed on power loss 40 .2 Place valve on critical instrumentation list 1. Stirrer motor controller fails. None 1. None 1. 2. 3. alarm 1. 1. possible accumulation of unreacted materials 1. 4. 2. 2. 1. possible runaway 1. No mixing. Stirrer motor malfunction Power failure 2B More 1. Interlock with feed line 2. 3. builds. 1. None 1.1 Instruct operators and update procedures See 1A-4 See 1A. resulting in high motor speed 1. 1. Contamination of water supply Covered under 1C Failure on water source resulting in backflow Backflow due to high backpressure Not considered possible Cooling normally started early Operator error 1. 2.3. 1. –do–do–do- 3. 5. controller handles 1. See1A. 5. 1B High 1. 1C Low Reactor cools. Partially plugged cooling line Partial water source failure Control valve fails to respond 1. Cooling water service failure Controller fails and closes valve Air pressure fails. 2. high temperature alarm to alert operator Check and monitor reliability of water service Place controller on critical instrumentation list See 1A. Install high flow alarm and/or cooling water high temp. 2. possible runaway on heating – do Diminished cooling. 2. High water supply temperature 1. Sooner than Later than Low High No 1. 1. possible runaway –do–do1. Control valve fails open Controller fails and opens valve 1. None 1. 1. closing valve 3.

One must be familiar with this concept to be able to determine the value of the input parameters and to understand the results of a risk or reliability analysis.PROBABILITY THEORY IN CHEMICAL RISK ASSESSMENT The probability concept is the basis for a risk analysis or reliability analysis. B. F = events P = probability S = entire sample space n = number of samples in which event A occurred N = number of experiments m = number of components in series or in parallel Operations: ∪ : Operation of union ∩ : Operation of intersection A : Operation of complementation : Conditional P ( A ∪ B ) = P ( A) + P( B) − P( A ∩ B) Mutually exclusive events: P ( A ∩ B) = 0 Complementary events : P ( A) + P ( B) = 1 ⇒ P( A) + P( A) = 1 Conditional Probabilities: 41 . A.

It follows that: For independent events: If events are dependent: Bayesian Estimation We know that in general: For any arbitrary event Ai Or: 42 .

the following conditions hold: Using the previous relations: The last expression is Bayes’ theorem. given that A. (i. is true. Exhaustive implies that every conceivable outcome is included in the prior distribution. It is important to understand the meaning of the various terms in the Bayes expression: B: Collected plant-specific data. Available generic data) P(B|Ai) : The probability of the observation.e.Let’s consider that one has a set events Ai which are exhaustive and mutually exclusive.e.. The equation is valid in general for any number of events A1.(i. A3 A1 AB A2 Considering Ai as class i. prior to learning fact B. Updated failure data) P(Ai|B) : Probability of Ai after learning fact B.. 43 . A2. An. P(Ai) : Probability of Ai.….

median and mode of a distribution Mode (X) = the most preferred value of ‘x’ (the one with the maximum probability) 44 . The probability density function f(x) is given by: ‘t’ = dummy variable The properties of probability density functions make it possible to treat the areas under f(x) as probabilities: Mean.PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS The cumulative distribution function F(x) is defined as the probability that the random variable x assumes values of less than or equal to the specific value x.

Skewness ≡ E[( X − μ )3 ] > 0 . Skewness: Skewness ≡ E[( X − μ )3 ] = ∫ ( x − μ )3 f ( x)dx −∞ ∞ For a symmetric distribution: Skewness ≡ E[( X − μ )3 ] = 0 If. 45 . the values of X > μ are more widely dispersed than X < μ.5 Mean (or Expectation): E( X ) = μ = ∫ ∞ +∞ −∞ xf ( x)dx In general the expectation of a function G(X) where ‘X’ is a random variable is: E[G ( X )] = ∫ G ( x) f ( x)dx −∞ Variance: Var ( X ) = σ 2 = ∫ ( x − μ ) 2 f ( x)dx −∞ +∞ Standard Deviation: σ ( X ) = Var ( X ) Coefficient of Variation: COV = δ ( X ) = σ ( X ) / μ ( X ) The COV gives the relative spread of ‘X’ around its mean value. Thus: F (Xm) = 0.Median (Xm) = value of ‘X’ at which values of X above and below are equally probable.

Thus. where‘s’ is an auxiliary (deterministic) variable. where: GX ( s) ≡ E (e sX ) . Skewness Coefficient: θ≡ E[( X − μ )3 ] σ3 Moment Generating Function: In general the nth moment of a probability distribution function is given by: E[( X n ] = ∫ x n f ( x)dx −∞ ∞ The moment generating function MGF of a random variable X ≡ GX ( s ) .If. GX ( s ) ≡ ∫ e sX f ( x)dx −∞ ∞ Now it follows that: ∞ ⎡ d {G ( s )} ⎤ ⎢ ds ⎥ = ∫−∞ xf ( x)dx = E ( X ) ⎣ ⎦ s =0 It may be shown that in general: ∞ ⎡ d n {G ( s )} ⎤ n n ⎢ ⎥ = ∫−∞ x f ( x)dx = E ( X ) n ⎣ ds ⎦ s =0 Binomial Distribution: p = probability of an event occurring Exponential Distribution: f ( x) = λ e − λ x F ( x) = 1 − e − λ x Normal Distribution: 46 . Skewness ≡ E[( X − μ )3 ] < 0 . the values of X < μ are more widely dispersed than X > μ.

σ z = 1 The Normal Distribution Curve Lognormal Distribution: The lognormal distribution is used quite frequently in reliability and safety studies. The relationship to normal distribution is as follows: if the stochastic variable ln(x) has a normal distribution. x has a lognormal distribution.Standard Normal Distribution: It follows that: μ z = 0. The probability density function f(x) is given by: 47 .

The Lognormal Distribution Curve Weibull distribution: β = shape parameter δ = lowest value life parameter θ= characteristic life Typical shapes of f(x) is shown below with δ = 0 48 .

Poisson Distribution: The Poisson distribution gives the probability of exactly x occurrences of a rare event (p ➝ 0) in a large number of trials (n ➝ infinity). 49 . The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution and not a probability density distribution.

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