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Common Recommendation Last price Target price Upside Free float Market cap Enterprise value ADT, 100 days
Prices as of May 28, 2010
JKX LN (from SELL) HOLD $3.40 (from $3.90) $3.70 9% 38% $585 mln $646 mln $2.3 mln
Key data
2008 Financials (IFRS), $ mln Revenues EBITDA EBIT Net income EPS, $ Profitability EBITDA margin EBIT margin Net margin Price ratios P/S EV/EBITDA P/E P/CF Growth Revenues EBITDA EPS 207 153 125 78 0.50 74% 61% 38% 2.8 3.8 6.8 4.2 12% 15% 4% 2009 197 151 120 85 0.52 77% 61% 43% 3.0 3.9 6.5 4.4 5% 1% 4% 2010E 224 169 140 101 0.59 75% 62% 45% 2.6 3.8 5.8 4.7 14% 12% 13% 2011E 244 178 146 104 0.61 73% 60% 43% 2.4 3.7 5.6 3.5
Recent fall is excessive. Since our SELL call in December 2009, the stock has lost 17%, while the Ukrainian market has gained 18%. However, we believe that the recent sweeping correction has unduly pushed the shares too low, even considering the companys lower than expected gas selling price. Lower gas price cuts into revenues, but enough remains. We decrease JKX Oil & Gas expected 2010E gas selling price by 19% to $250 per 1,000 m3 to bring it in line with the new gas import agreement reached with Russia. But even with this price drop, the company still demonstrates superior profitability to its Russian and West European peers, which sell their gas at around $75 and $230 per 1,000 m3, respectively. Gas sales in Russia may boost revenues 9% y o y in 2011. JKX Oil & Gas has committed to selling gas in Russia in early 2011. On the back of a recent $61 mln capital increase, it plans capex of up to $200 mln in 2010 for five workovers in Russia and construction of an LPG plant in Ukraine. While the positive impact of this development is partially diminished by lower gas prices in Russia and the still relatively small 2P reserve base of 88.7 mln boe, we believe that assuming a conservative scenario of full production from all six Russian wells starting in mid 2011, revenues should grow 9% y o y in 2011. Strongest trigger: future reserve replacements. Having relatively modest 2P reserves, we see future reserve replacements as the most potent price trigger, with potential materialization in around 1Q11. Despite 3.8 mln boe of 2P reserves replaced in 2009, we conservatively model the production curve without any future reserve replacements. However, incorporating a recurring 2P reserve replacement of just 2.0 mln boe annually would raise the fundamental value by 28% to $4.85 per share. We think that any major adjustments to Ukraines gas import price or delays in the workover program in Russia could also be potential price triggers. Valuation. We value the company using a 50:50 split of core NAV and relative valuation, with the latter based on equally weighted P/E, EV/EBITDA, EV/output and EV/reserves valuations. Our valuation yields a target price of $3.70 per share, implying upside of 9%, which at current prices warrants an upgrade in our recommendation from SELL to HOLD.
9% 5% 4%
Price performance, %
Common Relative to UX 1m 13.8 21.8 3m 11.3 10.6 6m 27.0 33.1 YTD 25.6 35.6
Price performance, $
5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 May '09 Jul '09 Sep '09 Nov '09 Jan '10 Mar '10 May '10
Peter Keller
In accordance with US SEC Regulation AC, important US regulatory disclosures and analyst certification can be found on the last page of this report. research@troika.ua, www.troika.ua
JUNE 3, 2010
Valuation
Changes in assumptions
Assumption changes
New 2010E gas selling price in Ukraine, $ per 1,000 m3 2014E gas selling price in Ukraine, $ per 1,000 m3 2P reserves, beginning 2010, mln boe 2010E capex, $ mln Expected end of extraction Risk free rate 2010E UAH/USD rate, aop 2010 UAH/USD rate, eop
Source: Troika
JKX Oil & Gas Ukrainian gas selling price decreased by 19% in 2010. We reduce the companys expected 2010 gas selling price in Ukraine by 19% to $250 per 1,000 m3 as a result of the new gas import agreement between Naftogaz Ukrainy and Russias Gazprom. In 2011 14, we even reduce JKX Oil & Gas selling price in Ukraine by 30 33% to a flat $226 per 1,000 m3 because we assume that Naftogaz Ukrainys import gas price will be equal to the regulated gas price for industrial consumers. But even if there were some premium to the import price (as is the case in 2010), we see potential downward pressure for the domestic gas price for industrial consumers due to recent government initiatives for direct imports from Central Asia, decoupling the gas price formula from crude prices and constructing an LNG terminal in Ukraine. As a basis for our long term gas price forecast, we assume a flat Urals price of $70/bbl for 2011 and beyond.
Old assumption
Source: Company, Troika estimates
New assumption
2P reserves up 4% in 2009 due to reserve replacements. JKX Oil & Gas added 3.8 mln boe to its 2P reserves in 2009 after it added 17.0 mln boe in 2008. Given these latest replacements and the companys plans to add more reserves from existing licenses through license area expansion (Russian license), exploration of deeper reservoirs (Rudenkivske license and Russian license) and potential shale gas (Rudenkivske license), we believe that the probability for further reserve replacements has increased. The view that JKX Oil & Gas is focusing more on reserve replacements has also been confirmed by discussions with the management during a recent site visit.
TROIKA DIALOG
JUNE 3, 2010
Reserves
Source: Company
Extraction
Replacements
Source: Troika estimates
One of our concerns regarding JKX Oil & Gas was that for a company producing 11,647 boepd in 2009, the 2P reserves of 88.7 mln boe look relatively small. Given the reserve replacements of recent years and its plan to intensify this in the future, we think that this risk is partially mitigating. Our sensitivity analysis of the fundamental value based on core NAV to 2P reserve replacements shows that because JKX Oil & Gas has a relatively small 2P reserve base, reserve replacements significantly affect its fundamental value. If we assume that the company would in the future be able to add 2 mln boe to its 2P reserves every year (as it did in 2009), the fundamental value would rise 28% to $4.85 per share.
Capex estimate for 2010 raised 68% due mainly to ambitious workover program. We increase our capex forecast for 2010 by 68% from $112 mln to $188 mln due to the announced workover program of five wells in Russia using two rigs and the construction of a liquefied gas petroleum (LGP) plant in Ukraine. According to the management, capex this year could even reach $200 mln. The program will be financed by the recent capital increase ($61 mln) and operating cash flow. The success of the workover program is the basis for beginning gas sales in Russia in late 2010 or early 2011. Consequently, the failure or delay of the workover program is a potential risk, in our view.
Source: Company
Production curve adjusted slightly on the back of plans for Russia. Based on the latest extraction figures in Ukraine, reserve replacements and plans for Russia, we adjust slightly the expected production curve. As a result, we now expect a slightly lower plateau production of 26,000 boepd, 124% above 2009 extraction, and end of production in 2020.
TROIKA DIALOG
JUNE 3, 2010
New assumption
Source: Company, Troika estimates
Old assumption
Recent capital increase incorporated. JKX Oil & Gas raised $61 mln in January through issuing 15.3 mln new shares (9.7% capital increase). The company will use this money for its 2010 capex program and we incorporate this change of charter capital in our model. Risk free rate reduced to 9%. We now incorporate a reduced risk free rate of 9% (down from 12%) due to the ongoing narrowing of Ukraines Sovereign spread over the USTs. Stronger than average 2010 exchange rate estimate. We now incorporate a better average hryvnia rate forecast for 2010 of UAH8.2/$1 (down from UAH9.0/$1) and a year end rate of UAH8.5/$1 (down from UAH9.2/$1) due to ongoing improvements in the balance of payments.
Valuation
VALUATION SUMMARY Over the last two months, JKX Oil & Gass share price has dropped 26%, in line with our previous SELL recommendation, and it has even fallen below our old target price of $3.90 per share. We now slightly reduce our target price by 5% from $3.90 to $3.70 per share, mainly as a result of a lower expected Ukrainian gas price, partly mitigated by a reduced risk free rate. This suggests 9% upside from the current mid market price. We base our target price on a 50:50 weighting of the fundamental value derived from our core NAV model and the equity value derived from relative valuation. Consequently, we upgrade our recommendation on the stock from SELL to HOLD.
Target price calculation, $ per share
Weight Core NAV Relative valuation Target price Current price
Source: Troika estimates
Upside 12% 6% 9%
50% 50%
TROIKA DIALOG
JUNE 3, 2010
2014E 21E 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 14.0% 6.0% 92.9% 7.1% 13.4% 8.0%
Risk free rate Standard ERP Company specific risk Cost of equity Cost of debt, after tax Share of equity Share of debt WACC Pre tax cost of debt
RELATIVE VALUATION
Relative valuation
Ticker JKX Oil & Gas E&P peers Dragon Oil Lundin Petroleum Heritage Oil Premier Oil Soco International Dana Petroleum Afren Regal Petroleum Salamander Energy Melrose Resources Petroneft Volga Gas Harmonic mean Discount/premium JKX LN DGO LN LUPE SS HOIL LN PMO LN SIA LN DNX LN AFR LN RPT LN SMDR LN MRS LN PTR LN VGAS LN Country/region Ukraine Turkmenistan Russia, Europe, Asia Russia Southeast Asia Asia, Africa Europe Africa Ukraine Europe, Trinidad Central Europe, Egypt Russia Russia MCap $ mln 583 3,079 1,455 1,825 1,972 1,922 1,413 1,215 468 510 419 156 305 592 17,496 13,080 118,031 09 6.8 12.5 >100 neg 28.0 34.8 31.3 >100 neg neg 30.1 neg n/a 23.8 71% 4.4 12.4 12.0 P/E 10E 5.8 7.7 7.9 neg 12.8 29.6 11.0 12.0 17.0 12.8 12.2 42.0 24.8 13.3 56% 3.9 9.9 8.5 11E 5.6 5.9 8.7 >100 8.4 11.8 8.2 3.8 6.0 10.8 4.9 3.5 8.2 6.3 11% 3.9 8.5 7.2 EV/EBITDA 09 10E 11E 3.9 4.1 4.2 neg 5.5 17.9 5.3 6.1 neg 7.7 4.5 neg n/a 5.6 31% 5.2 4.6 4.6 3.8 2.6 3.1 neg 4.6 13.2 3.5 3.2 5.0 3.6 4.3 12.0 17.6 4.5 15% 4.2 4.6 3.6 3.7 1.8 2.6 >100 3.5 5.7 3.0 1.0 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.1 6.1 2.6 42% 3.8 4.1 3.2 EV/output, $/boe EV/reserves, $/boe 09 10E 11E 09 10E 11E 139 109 139 n/m 113 n/m 104 136 63 109 136 n/m n/m 107 29% 73 177 155 144 95 102 n/m 102 n/m 99 112 91 90 129 157 398 114 26% 73 244 153 106 80 90 n/m 89 n/m 96 87 89 76 123 54 199 89 20% 67 241 149 6.6 3.4 10.0 28.2 6.5 13.2 11.7 29.8 n/m 10.3 19.5 2.2 5.6 7.1 6% 2.6 10.9 13.5 7.7 3.3 10.5 17.1 7.2 12.7 12.8 39.8 n/m 11.4 22.0 2.2 5.7 7.2 7% 3.3 17.1 13.5 8.5 3.1 11.1 20.2 7.9 12.5 14.4 56.5 n/m 12.5 25.5 2.7 5.9 7.8 9% 3.2 17.2 13.4
Russian integrated peers harmonic mean GEM integrated peers harmonic mean DM integrated peers harmonic mean
Note: All multiples given equal 25% weight. Source: Companies, Bloomberg, Troika estimates
WACC
Peer group. We compare JKX Oil & Gas with the harmonic mean of multiples for E&P peers. The harmonic mean of Russian, GEM and DM peers is only displayed for informational purposes. Incorporated forecast periods. We apply 2011E multiples.
Target multiples. We replace P/BV with P/E due to our belief that visibility of profits has stabilized and investors are shifting their focus back to profitability oriented metrics. The other multiples that we consider (EV/EBITDA, EV/output and EV/2P reserves) remain unchanged.
P/E. Based on the peers harmonic mean of 2005 10E P/E of 8.5, we apply a justified discount
of 30% and obtain a target multiple of 6.0. JKX Oil & Gas shares have been trading with a historic discount of around 30% on P/E. We believe that these justified discounts also properly reflect country risk. The company had a high net margin of 43% in 2009 due to very beneficial
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JUNE 3, 2010
royalties, while its E&P peers had an average net margin of just 16% that year. It thus looks like the market is punishing JKX Oil & Gas for having a net margin significantly above its peers.
EV/EBITDA. We use as a target multiple the peers harmonic mean of 2009 10E EV/EBITDA
of 3.6 without any adjustments, because JKX Oil & Gas 2009 EBITDA margin of 77% is only slightly above the peers average of 65%.
EV/output. Starting at peers harmonic mean of 2009 10E EV/output of $101/bbl, we
incorporate a justified premium of 20%, because JKX Oil & Gas is able to create more value out of its production, for a target multiple of $121/bbl.
EV/reserves. Based on peers harmonic mean of 2009 10E EV/reserves of $7.5/bbl, we
apply a justified premium of 20% because JKX Oil & Gas is able to create more value out of its 2P reserves, arriving at a target multiple of $9.0/bbl.
Weighting. We continue to assign equal weights to these multiples to achieve an average equity value per share based on relative valuation.
Our relative valuation with 2011E multiples gives us an equity value of $3.60 per share. This value is relatively close to the fundamental value of $3.80 per share derived from core NAV and indicates the consistency of both valuation approaches.
TROIKA DIALOG
JUNE 3, 2010
2009 8.00 7.80 76.4 52 1.46 118.1 249 0.48 0.0 196.5 5% 46 (45.8) 16% (10.8) (13.3) 7% 3.1 (5.5) 10% (14.5) 600 1% 1,986 12% (7.3) 4% (7.7) 4% (66.2) 15% (31.1) 115% (1.1) 2.6% (34.0) 28% (112.1) 15% (26.4) 1.46 3,991 0.48 1,301 4.25 11,647 20.1 46.2 55 8.4 13.7 88.7 10 2019
2010E 8.50 8.20 94.3 64 1.48 127.7 250 0.51 2.2 224.2 14% 50 (55.0) 20% (12.3) (14.4) 8% 3.2 (6.5) 18% (16.1) 649 8% 2,073 4% (9.0) 4% (9.0) 4% (70.2) 6% (29.7) 16% (1.3) 1.0% (39.1) 28% (125.1) 12% (27.9) 1.48 4,054 0.51 1,399 4.48 12,285 22.4 50.0 62 6.9 13.1 84.2 19 2029
2011E 8.50 8.20 87.6 60 1.47 154.4 191 0.58 2.4 244.4 9% 39 (66.8) 21% (10.7) (20.8) 45% 3.4 (7.9) 22% (18.4) 749 15% 2,050 1% (9.8) 4% (9.8) 4% (73.9) 5% (31.9) 10% (1.4) 1.0% (40.6) 28% (140.7) 12% (22.6) 1.47 4,032 0.58 1,599 6.22 17,040 16.8 39.3 72 5.4 12.3 78.0 13 2024
2012E 8.50 8.20 86.8 60 1.46 204.8 183 0.64 2.9 294.6 21% 37 (79.9) 20% (9.9) (27.6) 32% 3.4 (8.9) 12% (19.8) 799 7% 2,069 1% (11.8) 4% (11.8) 4% (87.9) 19% (36.9) 10% (1.6) 1.0% (49.4) 28% (167.8) 19% (20.8) 1.46 3,998 0.64 1,748 8.06 22,080 15.8 36.6 77 4.0 11.2 69.9 9 2021
2013E 8.50 8.20 85.4 60 1.43 240.8 192 0.69 3.3 329.5 12% 37 (88.3) 11% (10.0) (30.6) 11% 3.5 (10.0) 12% (21.3) 849 6% 2,095 1% (13.2) 4% (13.2) 4% (105.3) 20% (50.5) 12% (1.7) 1.0% (53.1) 28% (193.6) 15% (22.0) 1.43 3,931 0.69 1,902 8.80 24,120 15.5 37.4 82 2.6 10.0 61.1 7 2020
2014E 8.50 8.20 86.1 60 1.45 261.9 191 0.74 3.5 351.4 7% 37 (88.3) 0% (9.3) (33.4) 9% 3.5 (11.0) 10% (22.8) 889 5% 2,142 2% (10.5) 3% (10.5) 3% (117.3) 11% (58.7) 13% (1.6) 1.0% (57.0) 28% (205.7) 6% (21.6) 1.45 3,964 0.74 2,022 9.51 26,055 15.4 37.0 86 1.1 8.6 51.6 5 2019
CAGR 2005 09 2009 14E 12% 11% 6% 12% 5% 52% 44% 5% 100% 24% n/a 9% 8% 4% 3% 6% 16% 10% n/a 15% 47% 34% 10% 25% 19% 17% 5% 5% 1% 22% 23% 12% 2% 19% 16% 1% 1% 2% 3% 0% 17% 5% 9% n/a 12% 4% 14% 3% 20% 2% 15% 8% 2% 8% 7% 6% 14% 7% 11% 13% 4% 0% 9% 17% 5% 4% 9% 33% 9% 10%
4.85 4.95 121.8 84 1.45 83.1 189 0.44 2.1 207.0 12% 51 (54.4) 5% (13.5) (12.4) 4% 3.1 (5.0) 11% (16.3) 595 24% 2,256 1% (8.7) 4% (12.0) 6% (77.6) 34% (27.2) 122% (1.0) 3.8% (49.4) 39% (132.1) 20% (32.8) 1.45 3,959 0.44 1,203 4.03 11,033 19.4 51.4 50 9.6 13.5 89.2 22 2027
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JUNE 3, 2010
Ownership structure
17.5%
40.9%
BALANCE SHEET Assets Cash and equivalents Receivables Inventories Other current assets Total current assets Total non current assets Total assets Liabilities Short term borrowings Payables Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long term borrowings Other non current liabilities Total non current liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Equity Total liabilities and equity Net debt/(cash)
CASH FLOW STATEMENT Net income Minority interest DD&A Working capital change Other assets change Operating cash flow Maintenance capex Expansionary capex Other investments Investing cash flow Change in debt Dividends paid Share issues/(purchases) Other Financing cash flow Forex effects Net change in cash
RATIOS P/E EV/EBITDA P/BV ROE ROIC Dividend per share, $ Dividend yield P/S P/CF Revenue growth EBITDA growth EPS growth
TROIKA DIALOG
JUNE 3, 2010
Disclosure appendix
IMPORTANT US REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
An affiliate of Troika Dialog USA makes a market in the securities of JKX Oil & Gas, Regal Petroleum. The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors, firm revenues and overall investment banking revenues.
Analyst certification
The following analyst(s) hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect such research analyst's personal views about the subject securities and issuers and that no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in the research report: Peter Keller.
TROIKA DIALOG
This research report is prepared by TROIKA DIALOG or its affiliate named herein and provides general information only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a recommendation, an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other investment or any options, futures or derivatives related to such securities or investments. It is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, other investment or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities or other investments, if any, may fluctuate and that price or value of such securities and investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Any information relating to the tax status of financial instruments discussed herein is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their particular circumstances from an independent tax professional. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs or GDRs, whose values are influenced by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk. The information contained herein has been obtained from, and any opinions herein are based upon, sources believed to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. From time to time, TROIKA DIALOG or its affiliates or the principals or employees of its affiliates may have or have had positions or derivative positions in the securities or other instruments referred to herein or make or have made a market or otherwise act or have acted as principal in transactions in any of these securities or instruments or may provide or have provided investment banking or consulting services to or serve or have served as a director or a supervisory board member of a company being reported on herein. TROIKA DIALOG maintains strict internal policies, which are designed to manage any actual or potential conflicts of interest from harming the interests of investors. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained from TROIKA DIALOG upon request. This report may not be reproduced, copied nor extracts taken from it, without the express written consent of TROIKA DIALOG. For residents of the United States: This research report is being distributed in the United States by TROIKA DIALOG USA, INC., which accepts responsibility for the contents hereof. Any U.S. person receiving this report who wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact TROIKA DIALOG USA, INC., not its affiliate. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained from TROIKA DIALOG USA, INC. upon request. For residents of the United Kingdom and rest of Europe: Except as may be otherwise specified herein, this research report is communicated to persons who are qualified as eligible counterparties or professional clients (as defined in the FSA Rules) and is made available to such persons only. The information contained herein is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients (as defined in the FSA Rules). TROIKA DIALOG 2010