Beyond Predictions: Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate Terence P. Dawson, et al. Science 332, 53 (2011); DOI: 10.1126/science.


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6Centre for Population Biology. by shifting to more suitable local microhabitats. However. and disruption of ecological services must be taken seriously.. and mechanistic (process) modeling based on ecophysiology and population biology. genetic diversity) and extrinsic factors (rate.sciencemag. Dundee DD1 4HN. are likely to be most at risk. Assessing the biodiversity consequences of climate change is complicated by uncertainties about the degree. as well as how conservation managers can leverage adaptive capacities in natural systems to maximum advantage. as well as strategic conservation planning for the coming years and decades.3 Iain Colin Prentice. habitats. Most assessments of future exposure to climate change are based on scenario projections from GCMs often downscaled with regional models and applied in niche models. and other hazards) in habitats and regions occupied by the species. UK. requiring consideration of all aspects of vulnerability: exposure. or extinction owing to climate change. and governments (1.sciencemag. North Ryde. Exposure depends on the rate and magnitude of climate change (temperature. niche models are best suited to identifying exposure to climate change. 4Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Division of Biology. Macquarie University. particularly on climate variables that are likely to undergo change in the near future. with diverse consequences for resilience at local to global scales. flood frequency. Vulnerability is the extent to which a species or population is threatened with decline. life history traits. Department of Earth Sciences. reduced fitness. We introduce a framework that uses information from different sources to identify vulnerability and to support the design of conservation responses. 15) have relied heavily on empirical niche (or climate-envelope) modeling and analog scenarios of climate space (4). are already manifest in recent widespread shifts in species ranges and phenological responses (6. and Berry Biodiversity Conservation Center. and adaptive capacity (5) (see Box 1). observational. life history. Vulnerability has three components: exposure (which is positively related to vulnerability). precipitation. and modeling studies. and microhabitat preferences. based on multiple sources and approaches. pollutants) (13. or fresh water. experiments. invasive species. and nature of projected climate change (11). Exposure refers to the extent of climate change likely to be experienced by a species or locale.4. marine. UK. both positive and negative. and dispersal and colonization ability. The capacity to cope depends on both intrinsic factors (species biology. Mace4. London SW7 2AZ. Because greenhouse gas emissions to date commit Earth to substantial climate change in the coming decades (3). Additional sources of evidence include observations of responses to climate changes (both past and present). 2). There is a wealth of knowledge upon which to draw. 14). University of Wyoming. This approach uses statistical relationships between current climate variables and geographic patterns of species distribution and/or abundance to define an “environmental space” associated with a particular species. development of new areas for restoration and management. ecological communities. This has led in turn to calls for radical and immediate intervention measures. genetic diversity. Integration of multiple approaches and perspectives is needed for more accurate information about which species and habitats. 10). Scotland. University of Dundee. whether terrestrial.2 Joanna I. fitness. 18). 2011 How Reliable Is the Current Generation of Predictions? Climate-change impacts on biodiversity. Alarming predictions have come from a rather narrow methodological base. These studies show a range of natural coping mechanisms among populations exposed to climate change. these can be assessed by empirical. we review the insights that different approaches bring to anticipating and managing the biodiversity consequences of climate change. the diversity of individual-species responses to a broad suite of interacting climate variables (6). and genetic diversity. Laramie. Syntheses of climate change and biodiversity for decision-makers. School of the Environment. larming predictions about the potential effects of future climate change are prompting policy responses at local to global levels (1. Although human land use remains the main driver of present-day species extinction and habitat loss (8). More sensitive species are likely to show greater reductions in survival or fecundity with smaller changes to climate variables. including phenotypic plasticity. *To whom correspondence should be addressed. in which places. 7). Adaptive capacity refers to the capacity of a species or constituent populations to cope with climate change by persisting in situ. including the extent of species’ natural resilience. Like sensitivity. assessments of climate-change impacts on biodiversity have largely been based on empirical niche (or climate-envelope) models (4).1 Stephen T. Imperial College London. Application of these models has led to dire warnings of biodiversity loss (16). genetic loss. SEE LAST PAGE REVIEW Beyond Predictions: Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate Terence P. but a new. . and adaptive capacity (negatively related). 5Department of Biological Sciences. NSW 2109. the potential for loss of biodiversity. 2. competition. University of Bristol. Assessing biodiversity consequences of climate change is a multifaceted problem. yielding maps of species ranges predicted under future climate scenarios. But how good are our current predictions. which is only one aspect of vulnerability. Dawson. 2Department of Botany. Averting deleterious consequences for biodiversity will require immediate action. The models are then applied to climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs). Sensitivity depends on a variety of factors. Jackson. including the redesign of protected-area systems. Australia. climate change is projected to become equally or more important in the coming decades ( on October 12. and computational models. These can be assessed by empirical.mace@imperial.CORRECTED 1 APRIL 2011. persistence. Ascot SL5 7PY. Although much of the information reviewed is on species. For most species. A experiments. and modeling studies. sea level rise. Drawing on evidence from paleoecological observations.6* Climate change is predicted to become a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st 1 www. WY 82071. Program in Ecology. these models indicate large geographic displacements and widespread extinctions. including ecophysiology. 3QUEST.5 Georgina M. and how fit are they for conservation planning purposes? To date. conservation organizations. or regeneration of a species or population is dependent on the prevailing climate. and interactions of climate-change effects with other biotic factors (e. evolutionary rates. UK. or by migrating to more suitable regions.3. Sensitivity is the degree to which the survival. sensitivity (positively related). magnitude.g. integrated science of climate-change biodiversity assessment is emerging. sensitivity. Box 1. termination of evolutionary potential. our framework and conclusions are also applicable to ecosystems. the likelihood of novel and disappearing climates (12). trophic relationships) and stressors (land use. and nature of climatic change). House. performance. Bristol BS8 1RJ. pathogens. Adaptive capacity depends on a variety of intrinsic factors. E-mail: g. Imperial College London. and humanassisted migration (17. recent phenological and microevolutionary responses. SCIENCE VOL 332 1 APRIL 2011 53 Downloaded from www. rate. observational. but accurate predictions and effective solutions have proved difficult to formulate. Vulnerability in the context of climate and biodiversity.

there is more evidence for climate-driven range expansion than for range contraction (27). 9). and are often coupled. exposure is inevitable for any species that has a finite geographic distribution. Brewer. and are valuable in parameterizing mechanistic models. sensitivity. Experimental manipulations provide information on sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Elements of Integrated Climate-Change Assessment for Biodiversity Ecological observations in real time. harvesting) remain barriers to some natural response mechanisms. long-term local persistence of populations. although the amount of between geographic patterns of species distributions and climate. are applicable at a broad range of scales and can be used to assess all aspects of vulnerability. Although some species are undergoing rapid. require taxon-specific parameters.sciencemag. T. 26). Argynnis paphia). However. Paleoecological records extend the observational foundation to encompass a broader range of rates. including long-term monitoring. Extirpations already entrained by climate change may take years or decades to run their full course (29). Integration of these approaches will provide a more robust basis for vulnerability assessment and allocation of resources for conservation and Downloaded from www. These indicate that biodiversity losses may not be as large as predicted from niche models. (°C) 10 Winter temp. and are best suited for assessment of on October 12. Porter. Assessment of vulnerability must also include climate sensitivity and adaptive capacity (5) (Box 1). www. particularly given that the underlying assumptions of that approach are under debate. owing to undersampling of small or isolated populations.sciencemag. It might appear that many species are coping with climate change. An integrated science of climate-change biodiversity assessment will draw from multiple sources and approaches. and adaptive capacity. and invasive species (8. Complementary methodologies are available that tell us much more about natural responses to climate change (Fig. Many species are altering their geographic ranges and VOL 332 SCIENCE 54 1 APRIL 2011 www. However. [Photo credits: direct observations (silverwashed fritillary. K. paleoecological records. experimental manipulations. 19–23). and kinds of climate change. ecophysiological models. pathogens. S. Direct observations. S. They can reveal adaptive capacity and risks. and predicting ecological outcomes is unproven (25). To date. exposure is only one of many factors determining the impacts of climate change. and species decline as well as loss climate change to be faced varies widely among species. A. scale dependency. Mechanistic models such as population models and ecophysiological models are diverse. experiments. Critiques center on the correlative nature of the niche models. widespread population declines. W. but their efficacy in assessing extinction risk. population models. Climate-envelope (or niche) models are statistical models based on correlations The heavy reliance of conservation management and policy on a single scientific approach creates risks of policy or management failures. Knapp. Approaches based on observations in the present and the past. and failure to represent key ecological and evolutionary processes that could allow species to persist in a heterogeneous landscape (13. delineating suitable future habitats. Jackson] adjusting phenological responses in ways consistent with the relatively small climate changes of the past few decades (6. (°C) 5 -40 Integrated science of climate-change biodiversity assessment Mechanistic Ecophysiological models Population models Experimental manipulations Fig. and extinction lags (28). magnitudes. biotic interactions. T. although the rate of change and land use (habitat loss or destruction. 1. Integration of these approaches should provide the foundation for a robust science of climate-change assessment. Detecting (or forecasting) species decline is challenging because the processes are not well understood. climate-envelope models. S. 1). in most cases the primary drivers of decline involve land-use change and habitat fragmentation. and new modeling techniques are developing rapidly. P.learnaboutbutterflies. 2011 .com. They are particularly effective in assessing sensitivity and adaptive capacity. range contraction and population extirpation (local extinction) may be more difficult to document than expansion and migration. the difficulty of reliable extrapolation outside observed climate space. Each provides useful but incomplete information on exposure. Given the global nature of projected climate changes (1). Niche models provide a tool for assessing exposure to climate change as projected in various GCM scenarios (Box 1). Niche models impart ease of use and power in explaining modern distributions (24). Jackson.REVIEW Direct observations Paleoecological records Empirical and observational Climate-envelope models Taxa abundance (%) 30 Summer temp.

Barnosky (Megaloceros giganteus). Megaloceros giganteus) owing to environmental change. additional examples. 43) or regionally to Toleration Habitat shift Migration Extinction Juniperus osteosperma Pinus flexilis Picea glauca Picea martinezii Alces alces Cervus elaphus Rangifer tarandus Megaloceros giganteus Fig. 2011 . 35).REVIEW of ecosystem function may involve threshold transitions (30–32). undergone habitat shifts (usually elevational or topographic) within some modes. 36–38). Picea martinezii). documented for selected North American conifer trees and Eurasian cervids. recent case studies where the causal processes driving population responses to climate change have been disentangled suggest that the climate variables. The use of observational evidence will therefore need to be applied alongside deeper understanding of the biological differences among species that determine their fate under climate change. experiments. Differences among modes within and among species depend on rates. New knowledge emerges from real-time tracking of species responses to climate change. a sufficient method for forecasting risks or the intrinsic capacity of species and populations to adapt. in which species adjust their geographic locations to track suitable environments. Both migration and habitat shift are forms of environment tracking. or whether these are transient responses in populations with reduced fitness in the changed environment. www. perhaps because reliable methods to detect microevolution have rarely been applied (34. References. Future environments will display novel combinations of climate variables (12). 2. usually associated with severe population bottlenecks (near-extinction episodes) (e. Migrations of 100 to 1000 km are well documented for many species. since the last glacial maximum. Alces alces has also undergone a severe genetic bottleneck. Observations. and other factors ( (Alces alces. Representative modes of population and species-range response to environmental changes since the last glacial maximum. and other attributes as the environment changed. evolution. but direct observations are not. and other stressors and interactions).. [Photo credits: S.g. At least a few species have undergone universal extinction (e. Intrinsic adaptive capacity for climate change. populations of Juniperus osteosperma and Alces alces have persisted at some sites (toleration). T.g. 2) (35. Picea martinezii). Furthermore.sciencemag. Species’ responses to climate change may consist of multiple www. and mechanistic models indicate that many species populations have the capacity to adjust to climate change in situ via phenotypic plasticity (e. acclimatization. on their own. moving short distances (1 to 10 km) to sites with different aspects.sciencemag. can be both complex and context-specific (30. 31. and/or dispersal). Jackson ( Juniperus osteosperma. For example. and geographic patterns of climatic change. magnitudes. So far there is limited evidence of microevolutionary adaptive change (33).org on October 12. the capacity of species populations to adapt (via phenotypic plasticity.. acclimation. Populations of many species have persisted in situ at individual sites since the last glacial maximum (toleration) and many have undergone habitat shifts. It remains unknown whether the ongoing range expansions and phenological shifts will allow species populations to survive. 39) and microevolution (40. slopes. Picea glauca.. Pinus flexilis. Rangifer tarandus)] VOL 332 1 APRIL 2011 SCIENCE 55 Downloaded from www. D. elevations. others have experienced loss of genetic diversity.. Cervus elaphus. and the way they interact with species life history. developmental adjustments) (Fig. and that many populations are able to disperse locally to suitable microhabitats (42. and detailed discussion are provided in the supporting online material. and colonized extensive new territory while disappearing from previously occupied territory (migration). geographic barriers.g. A. 41).grambophoto.

and often rapid increases and decreases in sizes of local and regional populations (12. and connectivity of the species’ habitat within and beyond that region.sciencemag. which has so far been underexploited for determining adaptive capacity. 60). and management strategies. The other two measures from the vulnerability framework. 49. for example. and the size. 50). highmagnitude glacial-age climate changes with near-global impact (50). The vulnerability of a species or ecosystem is based on its exposure to climate change. 62). Extinction of only one plant species (Picea critchfieldii) has been documented during the last deglaciation (65). Each of these adaptive mechanisms has constraints. adaptive capacity and sensitivity (see Box 1). VOL 332 SCIENCE long-distance migration and dispersal (59.. the rate and magnitude of climate change anticipated for that region. shifts along habitat gradients and mosaics (49. This transition followed immediately upon a series of abrupt. These include. in some periods and regions. changes in both the location and overall size of geographic ranges. cohesiveness. and by identifying the circumstances under which species have escaped extinction and populations have resisted extirpation. By determining past climate-driven losses in genetic and species diversity at local to regional scales. Such species are not a priority for intervention unless there is a change in climate-change pressures or landscape permeability. evolutionary potential. These processes are. Ecological and biogeographic responses to these climatic changes are particularly well documented for the past 10. such responses included repeated reorganization of terrestrial communities. which may limit the capacity of species and populations to keep pace with high rates and magnitudes of climate change (35). This axis is primarily determined by biological characteristics of species that influence their mobility. and therefore need only low-intensity intervention as change becomes more extreme. phenotypic plasticity. Decisions are also likely to be affected by costs and assessments of benefits (e. population growth. 2). geohistorical records and paleoecological studies are being integrated with independent paleoclimate records to reveal effects of past climate changes (47. 61). All species or species groups living on Earth today have persisted through a glacialto-interglacial transition 20. and biotic interactions critical to persistence. The environmental controls and absolute limits of phenotypic plasticity.000 years for many regions. 2011 Low Low vulnerability Low-intensity intervention . and sensitivity (endogenous factors). Species in the upper left corner have high sensitivity to climate change but are expected to face relatively minor challenges. 49. fecundity. must be determined empirically for a range of species to predict in situ ecological and evolutionary responses to environmental change (34. metapopulation dynamics) provide a basis for assessing response times for local.000 years ago that included rapid. Specific conservation responses that will be appropriate under the different circumstances are discussed in the text. with decreasing adaptability. paleoecological records offer vital information about how species responded to different rates and degrees of change. The diverse outcomes for different taxa and life history types emphasize the range of past responses that are likely to be reflected in the present and future (Fig. specificity. 2). The fact that the biodiversity on Earth today passed through these events indicates natural resilience and adaptive responses. Many species have also undergone rapid range contraction and widespread population decline (16. rewilding • Assisted migration • Species-specific management • Habitat or landscape management • Passive management Adaptive capacity Monitor climate and populations. 35).g. 58). 57. physiological constraints. its sensitivity. Given the number and diversity of species potentially under threat. freshwater. 54–56). But few documented species extinctions can be ascribed solely to climatic change (65–67). The x axis represents the degree of exposure to climate change faced by species and communities (exogenous factors). with contingency plans that can be deployed in a timely manner in case of change. high-magnitude climate changes at all latitudes and in both terrestrial and marine environments. and its inherent capacity to adapt to change. The relative position of species and ecosystems along the axes can inform decisions on appropriate research.sciencemag. dispersal and growth on October 12. monitoring. The last glacial-interglacial High Low Vulnerability high Preparedness Intensive intervention • Ex situ conservation • Reestablishment. an ecosystems service value or lower cost might shift strategies implemented toward the top right). Downloaded from www. Species in the upper right corner will have relatively high levels of both exposure and sensitivity. and the environmental dependence of optimum phenotypes (45). which. were as large and rapid as those projected for the future (49. Species with high exposure but low sensitivity and high adaptive capacity (lower right corner) can presumably cope with change. 64). more intensive and specific management will be required. Megafaunal extinctions occurred in North America at a time of rapid climate change during the last deglaciation.000 to 20. however. establishment. This task can be simplified by using existing data and targeted studies of a range of representative taxa with diverse life history patterns and functional traits. and marine ecosystems. are plotted together on the y axis. and rapid expansion under favorable conditions (21). Low genetic diversity indicates that many species have passed through recent genetic bottlenecks (63. the subject of an extensive ecological and evolutionary literature. Plant and animal species have shown capacity for persistence in small populations and microhabitats (52. these studies can contribute to assessments of adaptive capacity and vulnerability (Fig. regional.REVIEW newly suitable locales (44). 56 1 APRIL 2011 www.000 to 12. 55. with numerous case studies in terrestrial. Although possible future climates will be unlike those of the past. but human exploitation is also a possible cause (66). Their potential vulnerability means that they need to be monitored to ensure that they are thriving and remain unthreatened. Biodiversity consequences of past climate changes. 51–53). 48). mortality. prepare contingency plans with increasing intensity Sensitivity • Benign neglect High Low High Exposure to climate change and barriers to dispersal Fig. 3. Empirical and theoretical studies of relevant ecological processes (propagule dispersal. and continental adjustments in distribution and abundance (46). Circled text denotes generic conservation responses. the synthesis and application of existing evidence on adaptation will provide necessary—but not sufficient—information on adaptive mechanisms and capacities. The relative balance of these different components of vulnerability would lead to different management interventions. cycle is only the most recent of at least 20 such cycles during the past 2 million years. This axis is largely determined by the species’ or population’s geographical location. Paleoecological observations can be further integrated with modern genetic and ancient DNA studies to assess the genetic consequences of these dynamics (47.

Intensive intervention strategies include assisted migration and translocation of species outside their native range (18)... This axis runs from “laissez-faire” (i. but may risk further spread of disease or invasive species. vast territories designated as wilderness areas or reserves are “managed” with a laissez-faire approach. 70). change in the future. or elevational). involving captive breeding and genetic manipulation in zoological and botanical gardens and recently developed cryogenic seed banks. such as boreal forests. and benefits of connectivity are under debate (79). and often intensive “command and control” interventions. which provides more options for both natural populations and conservation managers (80). A complementary strategy is to maintain high withinregion habitat heterogeneity (edaphic. in the United States and Africa.” For example. We advocate a combination of strategies governed by assessment of vulnerability and its three components—exposure. evolutionary. but it can reverse the fate of endangered species (8). it is likely that some ecosystems that currently receive minimal management. and assess associated risks. This approach can inform managers about the relative urgency and the type of conservation action necessary. These designations may. and exposure. For example. and paleoecological records suggest that they may break down under rapid climate change (49.g. and the way that it interacts with their natural coping mechanisms. 3) and will also vary in the financial and other resources they require. Large range sizes may imply a large population size and can act to buffer against habitat loss or fragmentation. Thus. may contribute to conserving species or populations with a view to future release or reintroduction. This assessment should aim to maximize the likelihood of the desired management outcome. but may also foster high genetic variability. ecological specialists at higher trophic levels. and paleontological field studies. Outlook Conservationists are increasingly concerned about biodiversity disruption and loss as climate-change impacts intensify in the coming decades. Paleoecological evidence suggests that many plant species have responded to past rapid climate changes with migration rates orders of magnitude higher than predicted by mean observed dispersal distances. dynamic placing of buffer zones. In any habitat or community. The most adaptable and/or insensitive species and those with low exposure will need minimal interventions with low-level monitoring. creating permeable landscapes to facilitate migration may be more effective under climate change than intensive management in “static” conservation areas as climate change proceeds. The empirical foundation for trait-based climate-change vulnerability analysis is now starting to appear. with whole communities recreated from populations surviving elsewhere. especially to identify and parameterize key ecological and evolutionary www. 65).org on October 12. So far the focus has mostly been on multispecies. 76). Given the evidence that the responses of species and communities to climate change will be highly variable. Intermediate strategies—including intervention to arrest or divert natural succession or ecosystem regime shifts. brought together with relevant climate data and with appropriate evolutionary and ecological theory and modeling. and models emphasizes the extent to which species vary in their vulnerability. For example. experiments. placebased predictions with emphasis on exposure to climate change. small geographic range) (77). Analyses based on niche models have prescribed this approach (15). for example. we need to move beyond predictions of future range changes. including species that were exposed to relatively rapid climate shifts during the Quaternary (47. More appropriate conservation actions will result from taking into account all three aspects of vulnerability—species sensitivity. This variation represents perhaps our best hope for maintaining biodiversity and its associated ecological goods and services in the future. when. The rich history of ecological. pollinator or plant-herbivore networks)—are now widely used.sciencemag. and economic imSCIENCE VOL 332 pacts (81) and ethical concerns (82). and removal of individuals dangerous to humans (e. controlled ex situ conservation. removal of barriers. and establishment of corridors or “stepping stones” within a wider landscape may be necessary (78). based on a vulnerability framework. 72–75). targeted. like natural LDD mechanisms. The diagonal axis in Fig. Decisions must balance tradeoffs. may require more active management under climate change.. Vulnerability assessment has been suggested for prioritizing species at risk from climate change (5) and has been applied to both taxonomic and regional species groups (69. The particular strategies deployed will depend on the circumstances of the species (Fig. 2011 . Our review of the evidence from paleohistory. substantial benefits may result from simply designating new protected areas and undertaking low-level habitat management to reinforce species’ intrinsic dispersal and migration mechanisms. sensitivity.g. will continue to increase species and ecosystem adaptive capacity to climate change. delayed reproductive maturity. poor dispersal ability. This suggests a potential role for rare long-distance dispersal (LDD) through the transportation of seeds in atmospheric updrafts and water courses. management decisions will depend on judgments of potential risks and benefits balanced against costs and available or anticipated resources. has the potential to transform the way that we assess climate-change vulnerability. let natural processes run their course) to direct. many species will be required to disperse rapidly through highly fragmented. and adaptive capacity—drawn from multiple lines of evidence. low-impact eradication of invasive species. although the definition. Body mass is strongly correlated with extinction risk and is often associated with other risk-promoting traits (e. evolutionary.REVIEW Developing an Integrated Science of Climate-Change Biodiversity Assessment The diverse sources of evidence discussed above can be integrated in a vulnerability framework (68). Periodic reevaluation of ongoing and planned protected-areas strategies may be needed to maintain potential for species resilience and mobility under climate change. perhaps facilitating conservation strategies. A broad geographical distribution may not only protect against individual habitat patches becoming climatically unsuitable. 71) as well as some recent studies (44.e. such interventions may be necessary in some circumstances. Today. As exposure and sensitivity increase and autonomous-response capability decreases. Because of the variety of vulnerabilities and the factors that contribute to them.. rogue grizzly bears). Developing effective strategies will rely on improved understanding of the nature of the climate threat to species. Active management is restricted to sporadic rewilding (e. with long generation times. These are generally considered to be high-risk strategies because of potentially negative ecological. a one-size-fits-all strategy risks failure. which may overestimate or underestimate risks in particular cases. top-predator reintroduction). However. of course. humandominated landscapes in order to keep pace with changing climate. and low reproductive output. maintenance of specific habitats or habitat diversity. Many orthodox conservation practices. Additional. A combination of expert opinion and expectations from ecological and evolutionary theory has been used to identify vulnerable traits for some groups (69. including. there are many exceptions to these generalizations. and dispersal by birds and animals..sciencemag. Species-specific management may be costly and intensive.g. Humans are very effective as LDD vectors and. costs. topographic. Reestablishment and rewilding involve intensive habitat management to restore critical habitat 1 APRIL 2011 57 Downloaded from www. do not require contiguous habitat to establish or maintain connectivity between populations. oceanic currents. Despite these risks. The perceived conservation value of particular habitats and species will also play a part and may be informed by ecosystem service assessments. more informed approaches will require new research. For example. some species may require specific actions for their conservation or to retain critical biological interactions. current observations. It is not too early to debate whether. a strategy we call “benign neglect. 3 broadly reflects increasing intensity of conservation interventions. Figure 3 displays species responses to climate change on two axes. adaptive capacity. minimize the financial costs. such as the restoration and protection of habitats and the removal of anthropogenic pressures unrelated to climate. and how such strategies should be deployed (83). Finally.g. and targeted interventions to restore disrupted species interactions (e.

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org sCiEnCE erratum post date 1 apriL 2011 1 Downloaded from www. 2 was incorrect due to an editorial error.CorreCtions & CLarifiCations Erratum Post date 1 April 2011 www.sciencemag.” The PDF and HTML versions were corrected on the day of publication. (1 April. Dawson et al. 53). This PDF contains the corrected figure. . The third column in on October 12. Fig. 2 was mislabeled as “Habitat shift. P. 2011 Review: “Beyond predictions: Biodiversity conservation in a changing climate” by T. p. When originally published.

also using eye movements as a primary variable of attention. then the only special elementary school in New York City for “gifted” children. because of the way chemistry was taught at the time. I became frustrated with the subject. University of Massachusetts. The photograph seems to imply that I learned those chemical equations at school. and money often plays only a limited role in its success. when recently I received an e-mail from an elementary school friend. SUSTC currently meets neither of these criteria. The staff at Hunter did not teach me advanced chemistry. as educators and students alike in China believe the current system is inadequate for training independent and innova- tive thinkers. I dreamed of being another Beethoven. LIFE MAGAZINE RAN AN ARTICLE titled “Genius school. In the years Published by AAAS CREDIT: JOHN SOLEM/UMASS AMHERST Downloaded from www. The first step in building a new university—especially a research university with an overarching emphasis on undergraduate and graduate education. This was not the case. and Literacy. I taught myself the chemistry displayed in the photograph by reading the high-school review book shown in my hand. defies common sense. I turned back to my interest in chemistry. and more recently I have studied driving and driving safety. Accompanying the article was a photograph of a 7-year-old boy with a chemistry book in hand. standing in front of a blackboard covered in chemistry equations. It is no surprise that the government will not promptly approve SUSTC’s authority to grant undergraduate and graduate degrees.D. Department of Psychology.sciencemag. Amherst. 2011 An Unexpected Spotlight Throughout my childhood. I learned that my 7-year-old self had earned a second moment of glory: Science magazine had run a version of the Life magazine photograph on the cover of the 23 April 2010 issue on Science. Even after my first year of graduate school. MA 01003. he was a high school graduate but had always been interested in chemistry and was one of the smartest people I have ever known. while indeed daring.sciencemag. Zhu has chosen to enroll undergraduates to his university before establishing a formal curriculum and permanent on October 12.” about Hunter College Elementary School. p. I laud the goal of exploring new models to challenge China’s education system. I had not thought about my brief moment of childhood fame in decades. in psychology. Faculty recruitment itself is an extremely challenging and timeconsuming endeavor. I am still active in all three areas at age 70. the professors should be given a few years to establish their own research programs and develop the cur- 662 6 MAY 2011 VOL 332 SCIENCE www.COMMENTARY The natural world and humans in it Rippling rings LETTERS I BOOKS I POLICY FORUM I EDUCATION FORUM I PERSPECTIVES 665 672 LETTERS edited by Jennifer Sills ON 22 MARCH 1948. Stone describes Zhu Qingshi’s effort to build a new university. With support from my teachers. Well-regarded and successful universities educate students by offering both a curriculum that comprises the collective wisdom of the faculty and a course selection that reflects the knowledge and style of individual faculty members.umass. I did not understand what a chemist did. I changed course again and returned to the University of Michigan to get a master’s in mathematics and a New University Plan Skips Crucial Steps I WAS SHOCKED BY THE NEWS & ANALYSIS story “Daring experiment in higher education opens its doors” (8 April. Upon seeing this snapshot of the past. I majored in chemistry at the University of Michigan and then earned a master’s degree in chemistry from Harvard. what President Zhu Qingshi is doing. but when reality set in. the Southern University of Science and Technology of China (SUSTC). I like to think that the inquisitive little boy that graced the cover of Science last year is still a part of me. my primary research has been measuring eye movements to gain insight into the reading process. However. From Judith. as SUSTC aspires to become—is not to enroll students but to build the necessary infrastructure and use it to recruit a diverse group of highly qualified faculty members. Judith Shulman Weis. Language. However. That little boy was me. but they did provide something even more important: an environment that encouraged independent learning and rewarded interest in science. I couldn’t help thinking about my years at Hunter and how the school may have affected the path my life has taken. ALEXANDER (SANDY) POLLATSEK . in which R. I have also been involved in funded research on the understanding and misunderstanding of statistics. USA. 161). E-mail: pollatsek@psych. Once the faculty has been assembled. My father had given me the book.

Students. Perspective. For example. 2011 Symmetrical Transparency in Science . Missing from the discussion. Because this is unlikely in the near term. should only be admitted after these are in place.” B. supports product licenses or pollution permits. 649. to borrow a phrase from medicine. and “Climate data challenges in the 21st century.S. 6). Yale University.” WEIMIN ZHONG Department of Molecular.S. but. This constitutes a seriously tilted playing field. and industry requests to protect data. There are many ills that need to be cured in China’s education system. so that they can make an informed decision as to whether the university is suitable for them. or environmental threats.” J. or is supposed to support industry’s regulatory compliance. SCIENCE VOL 332 Published by AAAS 6 MAY 2011 663 Downloaded from www. www. Cellular and Developmental Biology. provide guidance for best practices regarding data access and transparency for private science affecting public health and the environment.sciencemag. under claims of confidential business interests. privately funded science used for public or regulatory purposes should be subject to the same transparency requirements as publicly funded science. do no harm. especially undergraduates. p. Data Access Act and the 2001 U. New Haven. as well as (1–4)]. 11 February. CT 06520–8103. but it is difficult to judge because private science does not face the same transparency requirements as public science. Hanson et al.LETTERS riculum and individual courses. is recognition that a good deal of science relevant to public and environmental health and welfare is done in the private sector and. perhaps through the National Research Council. this private science is not subject to the same scrutiny as public IN RECENT MONTHS. “first.. both the Data Access and Data Quality Acts would be amended to apply equitably to public and private science. however. 700. and data access [Dealing with Data special on October 12. THERE HAS BEEN CONsiderable discussion in the scientific community of the need for increased transparency. Editorial. openness. Ideally. E-mail: weimin. Data Quality Act.sciencemag. largely because of the 1999 U. USA. safety. SUSTC appears to be doing things backwards. p. we suggest that the scientific community. should be granted only when public health and safety are demonstrably not at stake (5. even when it assesses public health. “Making data maximally available.. Overpeck et al. Much or even most private science may well be of high quality.zhong@yale.

please visit www. Sadie Weber. 3. industry. GSM701154. To submit a Letter. M.” Review: “Beyond predictions: Biodiversity conservation in a changing climate” by T. O. will be disqualified. Downloaded from www. K. San Diego.cce-review. published. I propose a graduate school–style approach to primary and secondary school STEM education. not delineated on the images. McGarity. Durant and A. Maryland Letters to the Editor Letters (~300 words) discuss material published in Science in the past 3 months or matters of general interest. Brash. I was happy to read J. The scientific community should therefore also suggest criteria to evaluate when data requests. IN 46556. under the Freedom of Information Act or other federal statutes. The research detailed in the story was led by Cheryl Makarewicz at Germany’s Christian-Albrechts University at on October 12. the last sentence of the second paragraph has been corrected and two instances of “Weber” have been changed to “Makarewicz. Only then. some data requests may well be harassing or malicious. A and B.and 30-min time points for E2-only data from Fig. Press. needed_if_the_ipcc_hopes_to_survive/2244/. 1798). with the 0. constitute an unreasonable burden on researchers. pp. 2C were performed as part of the same experiment shown in Fig. ChIP assays were performed using the same samples as in Fig. Reports: “Aryl hydrocarbon receptor antagonists promote the expansion of human hematopoietic stem cells” by A.The National Library of Medicine.fnlm. Geologist Kazuhisa Goto is at Chiba Institute of Technology. STEM taught in the classroom should be reinforced at the dinner table and on the school bus. p. and Math (STEM) is an often-overlooked aspect of bringing STEM into the mainstream. Friends of the National Library of Medicine. Schiermeier. NC 27514. p. is an undergraduate on Makarewicz’s team. including to discuss pressing issues in clinical trials: • Roles of NIH and ClinicalTrials. MD. F. Q. 1A. www. Ju et al. beginning with the youngest age groups.pdf. D. *To whom correspondence should be addressed. or posted elsewhere. p. 2Department of History and Program in Science Studies. instead of appreciated as an interactive and dynamic field. More information and online registration. A. Boitano et al. 5. and GSM701160. MACC MONDAY–TUESDAY. who presented the research. Nature 6. This curriculum would not focus only on 6 MAY 2011 Published by AAAS Robert Califf. 25 February 2010). E-mail: kshrader@nd. 1. p. JUNE 6–7. 4. 53). When originally published. In the HTML version online. Letters are not acknowledged upon receipt. 416). M. USA. MA. USA. (10 September 2010. P. http://e360. should have been clearly described in the legends. I believe that before there can be a revolution in STEM M. Web 2. Letters submitted.sciencemag. To help cultivate an infectious interest in STEM. Reports: “A topoisomerase IIβ–mediated dsDNA break required for regulated transcription” by B. E. and The American Association for the Advancement of Science LETTERS Of course. designed to block sound public policy rather than promote it. 2 was mislabeled as “Habitat shift. Incorporating journal discussions in the classroom would stimulate the teachers who choose the papers and pique the curiosity of the students. there needs to be a paradigm shift in the way our culture and society embrace STEM. and academia • Effects of social media. Press. 2011 CORRECTIONS AND CLARIFICATIONS . Dawson et al. A and B. La Jolla. Normile (18 March. Wagner. “The independent climate change e-mails review” (July 2010). 2008). E. GSM701155. University of California. “Major change is needed if the IPCC hopes to survive” (Yale Environment 360. go to www. In Fig. 1. Presently STEM is regarded by both students and teachers as a static subject. when students are self-motivated by curiosity to study STEM. will they go on to achieve STEM excellence. 2 was incorrect due to an editorial References News Focus: “Early farmers went heavy on the starch” (22 April. News & Analysis: “Waves of destruction” by D. I believe that the idea of celebrating STEM should proliferate into the classroom. and academia. industry. the FDA. 1A is reproduced in Fig. “Climate change: Addressing the major skeptic arguments” (September 2010). (23 June 2006. Oxford. Ibrahim’s Editorial “Celebrating the culture of science” (11 March. 1B. 9–16. GSM701158. 2C to facilitate comparison to E2+Mer data. The 2011 NLM/FNLM Conference will convene major figures in government. VOL 332 SCIENCE www. AARON KROLIK Chapel Hill. reproduced in Fig. 1345). E-mail: aaron. Mer treatments in Fig. R. not Chiba University. Letters are subject to editing for clarity and 1. University of Notre Dame.0.pdf. www. 891 (2010). R. 1B to facilitate direct comparison to TopoIIα. Fig. (1 April. The TopoIIβ track from Fig.b. Carr. but would also emphasize current research in each subject. Microarray data for this paper were not immediately available but have now been deposited in the National Center for Biotechnology Information’s Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) with accession numbers GSM701153. the core material. 1 “Clinical Trials: New Challenges & Opportunities” 2011 CONFERENCE KRISTIN SHRADER-FRECHETTE1* AND NAOMI ORESKES2 Department of Biological Sciences and Department of Philosophy. I think that a freely available journal publication that takes groundbreaking current STEM reports and edits them for a younger audience should be created and integrated into the classroom. GSM701156. p. I feel that engaging the public in Science. 2. Notre Dame. Cambridge.” The PDF and HTML versions were corrected on the day of publication. in print or online.-G. Doubt Is Their Product: How Industry’s Assault on Science Threatens Your Health (Oxford Univ. USA. 1376). Whether published in full or in part. Engineering. 2011 Natcher Conference Center. The third column in REPORT. W. Bending Science: How Special Interests Corrupt Public Health Research (Harvard Univ. Pielke Jr. p.dbcca. These details. Technology.sciencemag. GSM701157. National Institutes of Health Bethesda.krolik@ gmail. 1242).-E. CA 92093– 0104. Michaels. 2008). and patient-driven networks on clinical research • Clinical research’s response to public health needs • New ways to improve trials’ ef ciency and quality • Forging government-industry partnerships • Using clinical trials to improve patient care The keynote address will be delivered by NIH Director Francis Collins Bringing Research into the Classroom AS A HIGH SCHOOL STUDENT LOOKING TO pursue science.