Dealing with Severe Drought in S th i Southwest People’s tP l ’ Republic of China

Tun Lin/ EAAE
The material and pictures in the presentation are provided by and/or discussed with: Songcai You, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science; Jiatuan Zhang, State Flood Control and Drought Relief Office; Kunhamboo Kannan, Yoshiaki Kobayashi, Yaozhou Zhou and Joy Quitazol-Gonzalez from EAAE Kobayashi Quitazol Gonzalez

Drought Area and Impacts Causes of Drought Relief Work Lessons Learnt

Sichuan
About 8 million people affected and 2 million short of drinking water.

Chongqing Hunan Guizhou

Over 17 million people affected and 5.7 illi 5 7 million short of d i ki water. h t f drinking t

As of 18 March 2010, 60 million people are affected by drought, 18 million people suffered from shortage of drinking water supply, and 90 million mu of cultivated l d i hit lti t d land is by drought. These amount to a direct loss of 23 billion RMB Yuan. Yuan Drought Legend
Extremely severe y

Yunnan
• Over 8 million people affected and 7 million people short of food. • 87% of agricultural crop area and 80% of economic tree crops affected.

Severe

Guangxi
Moderate

About 8 million people affected and 2 million short of drinking water.

Light

In extreme situation, one of possible options is to relocate the inhabitants in the drought hit areas (March 31. News from State Council, PRC)

Impacts of Drought p g
1. 1 Impacts on Water Resources

March, 2009

March, 2010

Qinghai Lake, Xiangyun County, Yunnan

Honghe River, Yunnan

Impacts of Drought p g
2. 2 Impacts on Basic Subsistence

From October 2009, the total precipitation in Yanshan County, Yunnan, was just 26.2 mm, or 90% less than that in the same period of the previous year. In the picture, local farmers are waiting f the iti for th water deliveries.

Impacts of Drought p g
2. 2 Impacts on Basic Subsistence

Sapiwu village, Huaxian County, Yunnan Province (Photo by Haotian)

Impacts of Drought p g
2. 2 Impacts on Basic Subsistence

Impacts of Drought p g
2. 2 Impacts on Basic Subsistence
Dried well, 18 meters deep well Pengzhou, Sichuan

Taking water from a 10meter deep cave Qingkou Village, Luoping Village County, Yunnan Province March 22, 2010.

Impacts of Drought p g
3. Impacts on Agriculture
Guangxi Sichuan Guizhou
As of 10 March 2010, 2 million livestock are y affected by drinking water shortage; 60% of planted crops and an area of 13 million mu are hit by drought. As of 20 March 2010, of the 5 2 2010 5.2 million mu cultivated area, 0.78 million mu is affected by drought. A crop area of over 10 million mu is affected.

Yunnan
4.86 million livestock are affected by drinking water shortage; over 87% of planted crops is affected; total area hit by drought is around 30 million mu; mu; estimated crop yield will be reduced by 50%; 50%; fishery and fi h d forestry affected too, with total loss estimated at over 18 million RMB Yuan Yuan.

Impacts of Drought p g
3. Impacts on Agriculture 3
Niujiehe Reservoir, Jiulong Township, Ji l T hi Luoping County, Yunnan Province The over 0.4 million mu rape plantation in this county is almost completely p y destroyed.

Impacts of Drought
3. Impacts on Agriculture

Panzhihua, Sichuan ,

P dd Fi ld Yunnan Paddy Field, Y

Deyang, Sichuan

Wheat Field, Yunnan

Impacts of Drought p g
4. Impacts on Global Food Prices
Food price increase
Rice production in Vietnam, the Ri d ti i Vi t th 2nd largest rice-producing country in the world, is expected to be reduced by 1/3. Global food prices may consequently increase (Anbound consulting,2010). IMF warning: Given that Thailand g and Vietnam has a combined share of 40% of global rice trade, the reduction of rice yields in these countries due to drought may spur a sharp increase in global food prices.

Impacts of Drought
p y 4. Impacts on Industry
Power Shortage
Water Shortage SMEs suffer the most Southwest is the y country’s main water power generation region. 90% of water power stations in Guangxi halted operations operations.

Production Loss

Getting water for factory Yunnan

Asbestos tile production Yunnan

Impacts of Drought p g

Horticulture:
Yunnan supplies 80% of PRC’s cut flower production. However, with 80% of flower plantation in Yunnan adversely affected by drought, both the output and d ht b th th t t d quality of flowers have been reduced.

Impacts of Drought p g
5. Impacts on Forestry 5
Production Loss High insect risk i k High fire risk

Yunnan covers Y 47.3153 million mu of forests, of which, 23.3676 million mu is affected by drought; ff t d b d ht the resulting economic loss is around 6 billion RMB Yuan.

In Guangxi Guangxi, drought has triggered an outbreak of p pine moth.

Drought generates an increase incidence of forest fire.

Damage on forest

Impacts of Drought p g
5. Impacts on Forestry 5

Dead trees, Yunnan

Dadukou District, Chongqing March 21, 2010

Impacts of Drought p g
6. Impacts on Fishery 6

(L)Kaiyang County, Guizhou (M)Nahui River, the upper reach of Pearl River watershed, Guizhou (R)Kaiyang County, Guizhou

Impacts of Drought p g
6. Impacts on Tourism -03-21 20102010 03Huangguoshu Waterfall
2010-03-24 2010-03-

2010-03-26 2010-03-

Impacts of Drought p g
Dadieshui Waterfall, Shilin County, Yunnan

Today, amount of water discharge from the waterfall is just around 10% of it normal level. f its ll l

Before drought

Impacts of Drought p g
7. Impacts on international relationship 7

Concerns of countries in the lower reaches of  the Mekong River 
About 23.5% of the Mekong River watershed area is  within the PRC boundary, taking up 13.5% of the river  discharge.  The secretary general of the Mekong River  Management Committee: the level of water discharge  is not adversely affected by the development of hydro  is not adversely affected by the development of hydro power

Causes of Drought g
El Niño effect (Wang
Jinsong, Lanzhou Meteorological Institute, Institute CMA)

Less snow in Tibet plateau and relatively warmer winter causes drought in Sichuan
(Ma Zhengfeng, Sichuan Climate Center)

Hi h Temperature, t High T less precipitation

Red soil and Limestone, eak ater holding weak water-holding capacity

Human-induced activities, such as deforestation, planting of Eucalyptus and rubber tree which absorb under-ground water

Relief Work
y g Community Mobilized or drinking water

Panxian county, Guzhou, 100,000 urban migration workers return home to combat drought

Drinking water delivered by fire trucks.

Relief Work
y g g Community mobilized for irrigation management

Yulong County, Yunnan

Relief Work
Civil society donates water.

Premier Jiabao Wen visited droughtg hit region in Yunnan.

Military carries the water to affected area.

Relief Work
Cave exploration for water Missiles for rainfall

Lessons Learnt: Overview of Drought in Asia
Drought affects Asia more than any other continent
Asia experienced 25% of the world total droughts from 1900 to 2010. Droughts killed about 12 million people and affected 2 billion people in Asia, accounting for 83% and 81% respectively of the world total. On average, each drought killed more than 67,000 people in Asia, as compared to about 32 thousand in Europe, about 3 thousand in Africa, 35 people in Oceania, and less than one person in Americas. In terms of economic losses, on average, each drought cost Asia about ten times higher than in Africa. Among the Asian countries, India, PRC, and Bangladesh are the three most drought-affected countries. These three countries accounted for over 98% of drought-killed population in Asia.

Lessons Learnt: Overview of Drought in the PRC
PRC has historically been a drought prone country.
The country is hit by major drought once every two years from 206 BC to 1949. The most severe drought occurred during 1876 to 1878, which 1878 took 13 million lives. From 1950 to 2008, 18 extreme droughts hit the PRC. Over the last 10 years, 66 million tons of grain was lost annually because of droughts, equivalent to 7% of annual production or 33 billion RMB in economic terms. Annual industrial loss is over 230 billion RMB.23 million rural population have difficulty in accessing water, while millions of l ti h diffi lt i i t hil illi f urban citizens are also affected. Since 1990, direct economic loss from drought accounts for over 1% of GDP. The percentage reaches 2% during severe drought years.

Extreme Drought (2000)
Per capita water usage is 2,200 cubic meters, or 28% of the world’s average 64% of Land, 19% of Water ,

36% of Land, 81% of Water

40000 成灾面积(万亩) 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 50年代 60年代 70年代 80年代 90年代 2000年以后 粮食损失(千吨)

An annual average of 14 million ha of agricultural land was severely affected since 2000, with food loss reaching 35 million tons each year.

Challenges, Actions and ADB
1. Enhancing rural drinking water security ⇒ More investment, better coordination among government agencies (e.g. NDRC,MWR, MoH, MoE) ⇒ Investment Opportunity for ADB?
Quantity dimension Quality dimension

Challenges, Actions and ADB
2. Strengthening intra- and inter- watershed management. Inter-watershed transfer (Zhu River, Huang River, etc.) Improving endanger dams and reservoirs: 6240 by 2010 > => Example: Shangdong Endangered Dams Project Conjunctive management Wetland preservation => ADB Examples: Sanjiang, Yancheng, Baiyangdian,etc.

Challenges, Actions and ADB
3. Improving irrigation, drainage and water storage facilities The last mile problem About half farm land not irrigated Among the irrigated, only about 42% uses water-saving measures > => ADB Examples: Comprehensive Agricultural Development Project; Ningxia Water-saving Irrigation Project

Challenges, Actions and ADB
4. Development of Water-saving Society. By 2030, water demand is 730 billion m3 and supply 670 billion m3, with the deficit about 60 billion m3. Planned at national, river basin, local level. Irrigation efficiency raised from 48% of current level t0 50% by 2020 Marginal water consumption per 10,000 RMB industrial M i l t ti 10 000 i d t i l production dropped to 144 cubic meters from 953 cubic meters.

缺水城市分布图

400 major cities suffer from unreliable water supply and 110 have severe water shortage.

Challenges, Actions and ADB
5. Strengthening Disaster Management Capacity
Drought Relief Responsibility System. Chief local government officers are responsible for drought management while agencies management, concerned are accountable for drought relief performance. Integration of Risk into Social Development Plan: national and local economic development planning and urban and rural housing development should integrate risk considerations. Drought Preparedness
Local contingency plans Relief material reserves

Disaster Risk Financing

Local incentive compatibility

Public Awareness Promotion Decision Support System for drought relief

Challenges, Actions and ADB
6. Better understanding the interactions among climate change, water resources and change agricultural production
Less rainfall in North and Northeast PRC over the last 50 years. Runoff of the Yellow, Huai, Hai and Liao Rivers decreased by 10 to 20 percent. World Bank work on HHH and Can ADB do the rest ($300k)?