Climatic Change (2009) 95:219230 DOI 10.

1007/s10584-008-9519-5

Cartographic design and the quality of climate change maps

Jean E. McKendry Gary E. Machlis

Received: 13 February 2008 / Accepted: 22 September 2008 / Published online: 21 November 2008 Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2008

Abstract Maps are essential in climate change research and policymaking, and are primary tools for communicating climate change information to the public. The consequences of cartographic design are potentially signicant to understanding climate change and effectively informing policymakers. Yet, the cartographic design and quality of climate change maps have not been critically assessed nor systematically evaluated. We suggest that evaluating the quality of climate change maps is both timely and essential, and offer one approach as a demonstration. We use cartographic design principles to evaluate a high visibility climate change map from the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our specic goals are to demonstrate the need and value of cartographic critique, describe how such evaluation can be accomplished, and make a case for cartographers engagement with climate change scientists in mapping activities. We suggest a research and policy agenda for the cartographic evaluation and design of climate change maps.

1 Introduction Maps are essential to climate change research and policymaking, and their use is substantial: Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) included over 130 maps in its 2007 report (IPCC 2007a). Climate change maps are used by the scientic community to display results of general circulation models (GCMs), projected sea level rise, temperature change, migration of ora and fauna habitat ranges, and more. Policymakers use climate change maps to compare

J. E. McKendry G. E. Machlis College of Natural Resources, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844-1133, USA ) J. E. McKendry (B c/o AAAS, 1200 New York Avenue, NW (Room 637), Washington, DC 20005, USA e-mail: jeanm@uidaho.edu

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costs/benets of adaptive responses, analyze policy options, and develop mitigation plans. Maps are also primary tools for communicating climate change information to the public. Hence, an important question arises for the producers and users of climate change maps: what is the quality of cartographic design used in climate change maps? Here quality refers not to the accuracy or reliability of the underlying data but to how data are cartographically displayed. The question is relevant because: (1) maps, including climate change maps, are increasingly made by individuals not trained in map design, (2) poor map design can hinder effective data analysis, understanding, and decision-making, and (3) poorly designed maps can distort information and mislead users (see Lilley 2007; Cassettari 2007; Carter 2004; McKendry 2000; Monmonier 1996). Mapmaking and cartography have been transformed by technology (see Arikawa et al. 2007; Gartner et al. 2007; Monmonier 2007; Butler 2006; Taylor and Caquard 2006). These technological developments have made it easier to produce maps. Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, Global Positioning Systems (GPS), interactive web mapping (including mashups), inexpensive computing platforms, and plentiful data and data delivery options have made mapmaking a commonplace activity beyond the realm of the trained cartographer. Todays mapmakers often do not have specialized education or training in the principles of cartographic design. As a result, maps made by non-cartographers vary in quality (as do maps by cartographers, of course), and are often poorly designed (Cassettari 2007; Plewe 2007; Monmonier 2006; Field 2005; Wood and Keller 1996). The consequences of poor quality map design can be signicant. Maps have the power to inform or misinform, lead or mislead, clarify or confuse through the use or misuse of design principles (Lilley 2007; Carter 2004; McKendry 2000; Butteneld 1996; Monmonier 1995; Butteneld and Beard 1991; Petchenik 1983). For example, Tufte (1990, 1983) analyzes a broad range of information graphics (including charts, diagrams, graphs, tables, and maps) and documents the prevalence of graphic mediocrity (due to lack of skill). Importantly, he describes how the quality of graphic design can directly impact decision-making by revealing or obscuring information (Tufte 1997). Given the urgent challenges created by climate change and the importance of maps in climate change research and policymaking, the role of map design deserves attention. Surprisingly, the cartographic design and quality of climate change maps have not been critically assessed nor systematically evaluated. We suggest that evaluating the quality of climate change maps is both timely and essential. We offer one approach as a demonstration. First, we select a high visibility climate change map to evaluate, in this case a map used in the Summary for Policymakers report issued by Working Group II of the IPCC (IPCC 2007b). We then present a brief overview of selected cartographic design principles that can be used to evaluate this and other climate change maps. This overview is not a comprehensive primer on cartographic design; there are many resources available to introduce cartographic design (see Section 3 below). The purpose of this overview is to provide specic examples of agreed-upon design principles established through cartographic research. Next, we systematically apply these cartographic principles to the selected climate change map and report the results. We conclude with a proposed research and policy agenda for the systematic cartographic evaluation of

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climate change maps. We acknowledge that this small case study approach is limited. However, our specic goals are to demonstrate the need and value of cartographic critique, describe how such evaluation can be accomplished, and make a case for cartographers engagement with climate change scientists in mapping activities.

Figure SPM.1. Locations of significant changes in data series of physical systems (snow, ice and frozen ground; hydrology; and coastal processes) and biological systems (terrestrial, marine, and freshwater biological systems), are shown together with surface air temperature changes over the period 1970-2004. A subset of about 29,000 data series was selected from about 80,000 data series from 577 studies. These met the following criteria: (1) ending in 1990 or later; (2) spanning a period of at least 20 years; and (3) showing a significant change in either direction, as assessed in individual studies. These data series are from about 75 studies (of which about 70 are new since the Third Assessment) and contain about 29,000 data series, of which about 28,000 are from European studies.White areas do not contain sufficient observational climate data to estimate a temperature trend. The 2 x 2 boxes show the total number of data series with significant changes (top row) and the percentage of those consistent with warming (bottom row) for (i) continental regions: North America (NAM), Latin America (LA), Europe (EUR), Africa (AFR), Asia (AS), Australia and New Zealand (ANZ), and Polar Regions (PR) and (ii) global-scale: Terrestrial (TER), Marine and Freshwater (MFW), and Global (GLO). The numbers of studies from the seven regional boxes (NAM, , PR) do not add up to the global (GLO) totals because numbers from regions except Polar do not include the numbers related to Marine and Freshwater (MFW) systems. Locations of large-area marine changes are not shown on the map. [Working Group II Fourth Assessment F1.8, F1.9; Working Group I Fourth Assessment F3.9b].

Fig. 1 Map, legend, and caption of Figure SPM.1., reprinted from IPCC Working Group II Summary for Policymakers (2007b, p. 10), used with permission

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2 Selecting a climate change map to evaluate A climate change map from a recent report of the IPCC was selected to demonstrate how climate change maps can be cartographically evaluated. Selecting an IPCC map is appropriate for several reasons. Since 1988, the IPCC has released four comprehensive scientic assessments of climate change. IPCC reports are considered by policymakers and the scientic community to be a denitive source of information on climate change and its impacts (Kintisch and Kerr 2007). The map shown in Fig. 1 was published in the Summary for Policymakers completed by Working Group II for Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007b, p. 10). The title of the map is Changes in physical and biological systems and surface temperature 1970 2004. Figure 1 is the only map included in this summary report for policymakers. We consider this map appropriate for a case example given that: (1) the IPCC is a legitimated source of climate change information, (2) the IPCCs fourth assessment report (AR4) is a major consensus technical effort to summarize current climate change knowledge, (3) the policy summary is an important stand-alone document, and (4) Fig. 1 is the sole map in the policy summary approved by Working Group II. The map published in the report is 184 mm wide by 194 mm tall, accompanied by a caption 184 mm wide by 41 mm tall, and printed in color on a page 215 mm wide by 279 mm tall. The map was also made available as a separate color graphic (though without its title or caption) on the IPCC website (IPCC 2007b). Since its original publication, the map has been distributed through other reports of the IPCC and in the public media in both its original and modied form. The map appears in the draft copy of the Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Reportthe overall summary of the IPCCs work (IPCC 2007c). It was published in modied form in the Washington Post (print and online) on 18 November 2007, page A10 with the caption excluded, title changed, and legend edited and rearranged (Struck 2007). The map was adapted and split into two separate maps by the Organization of Ibero-American States (Organizacin de Estados Iberoamericanos 2007). The resulting two maps were posted on the organizations website with substantial changes made to the legend (see http://www.oei.es/decada/presentacioneurop.htm). The color version of the map published in the nal summary report of Working Group II and shown in Fig. 1 is evaluated in this demonstration, downloaded from the IPCC website 21 November 2007 (IPCC 2007b, p. 10).

3 Selected principles of cartography to use in evaluating climate change maps Research and practice in the eld of cartography have produced a set of fundamental principles that are essential to good cartographic designprinciples that deal with map layout and symbolizing data and features. Cartographic design principles guide decisions about how to represent locations on a map and attributes of those locations, using graphic symbols such as color, size, shape, typography, and other symbols. Principles describe how points, lines, and areas should be symbolized based on the underlying data (i.e., attributes of features). For example, the selection of

Table 1 Selected principles for cartographic design and layout with descriptions (adapted from Brewer 2005 and Krygier and Wood 2005)

Cartographic principle Description of cartographic principle

Map projection

Generalization

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Data classication

All map projections have distortions (distance, area, direction, and/or shape). An equal-area map projection is a good selection for most small-scale maps (e.g., many world maps) and should be used for maps showing data distributions. Small-scale maps should show more area, less detail, and more generalization of features. Large-scale maps should show less area, more detail, and less generalization of features. The coastline of a country on a large-scale map is symbolized by a line with more detailed curves than the same coastline on a small-scale map. Qualitative data show differences in kind (e.g., forest versus urban land cover). Qualitative data should be grouped so that features in the same group are more similar than dissimilar and features in different groups are more dissimilar than similar. Quantitative data show differences in amount (e.g., population density). Quantitative data should be grouped by specic external criteria (e.g., quantiles) or by the characteristics of the data (e.g., natural breaks).

Map layouta Focus Visual variablesb Color hue Color value

Map layout should guide readers through the map elements and help them focus on the most important parts of the map.

Color saturation

Size

Shape

Visual hierarchy

Color hue (such as red, green, blue) should be used to categorize features that are qualitatively different, such as a river and a road. Color value (or lightness of hue) should be used to represent quantitatively different data (either rank-ordered data or numerical amounts), such as population density. Value is typically light for low numbers (e.g., light green) and dark for high numbers (e.g., dark green) in sequential datasets, such as a dataset of population change from 0% to 100%. For diverging data sets with an important midpoint (between negative and positive values), such as population change from 50% to +50%, hue and value can vary to show the two directions in the data set. The midpoint from 0% to 50% can be symbolized using a light to dark color hue. The midpoint from 0% to +50% can be symbolized using a different, complementary light to dark color hue. Color saturation (or intensity of hue, such as bright red compared with a dull, gray red) can be used for qualitative or quantitative data. It is difcult to use on its own to symbolize data. Saturation is typically used to reinforce changes in value for quantitative data or to reinforce changes in hue for small areas on a map that are qualitatively different. Size should be used to represent quantitatively different data (either rank-ordered data or numerical amounts). A larger square signies a greater quantity than a smaller square. Shape should be used to categorize features that are qualitatively different. A square is not more or less than a circle, but is different in kind. Visual hierarchy should emphasize the most important map elements. Less important elements should be less noticeable. Visual hierarchy should clearly communicate the intellectual hierarchy and purpose(s) of the map. 223

a For Krygier and Wood (2005) focus is one element of map layout that also includes map pieces (title, legend, border, etc.), balance (stability), and the grid (underlying grid of vertical and horizontal lines that helps with balance). b Bertin (1981) initially described seven visual variables. Cartographers have adapted and modied this list. Five visual variables are presented here.

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appropriate color schemes is determined by whether the attributes are qualitative (use different colors to symbolize different ecotypes) or quantitative (use the same color with variation from light to dark to symbolize changes in temperature over time). Cartographic principles guide decisions about how to group (classify) data for representation. For example, a map showing temperature ranges may have temperature data assigned to groups using equal intervals (same data range for each class) or quantiles (same number of data points in each class). Cartographic principles guide decisions about how to arrange all the graphic symbols included on a map so that there is clarity in the overall design and layout. Numerous texts review and explain cartographic principles (see, for example, Slocum et al. 2005; Kimerling et al. 2001; Dent 1999; Robinson et al. 1995; MacEachren 1994; Monmonier 1993). There is strong consensus within the cartographic community about basic principles. Contemporary map design also demands understanding the constraints and opportunities determined by the media on which a map will be reproduced. For example, maps designed for digital display are limited by screen resolution compared with maps designed for printing on paper, and endless zoom options carry with them unique problems of data accuracy and cartographic design (see Lobben and Patton 2003, for a comparison of design issues for digital and printed maps).

Table 2 Selected introductory resources on cartographic design Books (full citations are listed under references) Cynthia Brewer, Designing Better Maps: A Guide for GIS Users Borden Dent, Cartography: Thematic Map Design, 5th edition Jon Kimerling, Philip Muehrcke, and Juliana Muehrcke, Map Use: Reading, Analysis, and Interpretation, 5th edition John Krygier and Denis Wood, Making Maps: A Visual Guide to Map Design for GIS Alan MacEachren, Some Truth with Maps: A Primer on Symbolization and Design Mark Monmonier, How to Lie with Maps, 2nd edition Terry Slocum, Robert McMaster, Fritz Kessler, and Hugh Howard, Thematic Cartography and Geographic Visualization, 2nd edition Journals Cartographic Perspectives (Journal of the North American Cartographic Information Society; http://www.nacis.org) Cartography and Geographic Information Science (Journal of the Cartography and Geographic Information Society; http://www.cartogis.org) Cartographica (Journal of the Canadian Cartographic Association; http://www.cca-acc.org/) The Cartographic Journal (Journal of the British Cartographic Society; http://www.cartography.org.uk/) Websites http://www.colorbrewer.org (an interactive online tool designed to assist in selecting good color schemes for maps and other graphics) http://www.typebrewer.org/ (an online tool designed for people who want to learn more about map typography) http://www.progonos.com/furuti/MapProj/Normal/CartProp/cartProp.html (an introduction to map projections, with examples of distortions, and a discussion of matching projection to a maps purpose) http://mappingcenter.esri.com/ (a website that focuses on cartographic resources, examples, and assistance for users of ArcGIS)

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Table 1 includes selected cartographic principles adapted from two recent books that focus on map design (Brewer 2005; Krygier and Wood 2005). Specically, Table 1 describes principles concerning map projections, generalization, data classication, map layout, visual variables (such as color), visual hierarchy (important information is visually prominent in the maps design), and more. The sources were selected because their focus is on teaching GIS users how to make better maps, and can introduce non-cartographers to the basics of good map design. The list of principles, though not exhaustive, deals with common design issues encountered in mapping. For example, all maps displayed in two dimensions require mathematical transformation of spherical coordinates to plane coordinates through the use of a map projection. All map projections have distortions of distance, area, direction, and/or shape. Such distortions are particularly noticeable on small-scale maps, such as maps of the world. A map projection that preserves relative areas should be used for maps showing data distributions. While these principles are basic and straightforward, their application in the overall design and layout of a map is often complex and challenging, can involve design tradeoffs, and is a requirement for high quality map design. For climate change scientists interested in learning more about cartographic design, Table 2 provides a list of selected resources that include numerous examples of good and poor map design.

4 Evaluating the IPCC climate change map: an example approach Figure 1 from the IPCC Working Group II summary report for policymakers can be evaluated using the selected principles in Table 1. Each principle can be systematically applied to the map with the result rated as good, satisfactory, or poor followed by a brief explanation. We applied this method to the IPCC map shown in Fig. 1. Table 3 includes the rating of the map for each selected principle with its explanation. Our preliminary and limited evaluation indicates that the map published in the summary report of Working Group II for policymakers ranges from poor to satisfactory in its use of selected cartographic principles. For example, we rated map layout and focus as poor. The map legend is complex and includes data not even displayed on the map, i.e., the number and percentage of signicant changes in the series of four-celled tables with arrows. The legend is also the same size as the map, and they visually compete with each other for importance on the page. Information about the white areas on the map is included in the caption but not in the map legend. Meaningful relationships between changes in physical and biological systems and changes in surface temperature are difcult to see. We rated the generalization of features on the map as satisfactory. The map shows coastlines and boundaries between nations. The black linework to symbolize coastlines and boundaries is more detailed than needed for the scale of this map. The high level of detail for the southern tip of Chile means that the black boundaries blend in with the point locations (blue circles with black outlines). Table 3 summarizes results for each of the selected cartographic principles. Overall, our evaluation is that the map does not clearly and effectively display information about its intended topic, changes in physical and biological systems and

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Table 3 Results of evaluating map from IPCC working group II summary report using selected principles for cartographic design and layout

Cartographic principle

Rating

Explanation

Map projection

Poor

Generalization

Satisfactory

Data classication

Satisfactory

The map shows temperature and other statistical information. The projection should be equal-area. Instead, it is a cylindrical equidistant projection. Area is distorted as well as shape. The colored squares on the map are equal in size, but they do not represent the same area on the earth. The map shows coastlines and boundaries of nations. The generalization of areas (nothing smaller than a country) is appropriate. Linework to symbolize the coastlines and boundaries is too detailed for the scale and purpose of the map. Argentina, Chile, Antarctica, and Southeast Asia are examples where too much detail interferes with the areas and data being shown. The map displays quantitative and qualitative data that are classied. The observation locations for physical systems are combined into a single group. Observation locations for biological systems are combined into a single group. They are symbolized as qualitatively different groups using different color hues. The data on temperature range are classied into ve groups, low to high. It is unknown how the class breaks were established. The reader can only determine that the data ranges for the classes are not equal in size. It is unclear in the legend where class breaks begin and end as a single value is assigned to a break. Climatic Change (2009) 95:219230

Map layout Focus

Poor

The map lacks focus. The legend is complex (including data not even displayed on the map, i.e., the number and percentage of signicant changes in the series of four-celled tables with arrows). The legend is the same size as the map, and they visually compete with each other for importance on the page. The map is accompanied by a detailed caption. The reader must carefully read the caption rst to understand the legend and then carefully read the legend in order to understand the map. For example, information about the white areas on the map is included in the caption but not in the map legend.

Visual variables Color hue

Satisfactory

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Color value

Poor

Color saturation Size

NA Satisfactory

Shape Visual hierarchy

NA Poor

Point observations for physical and biological systems are distinguished by different color hues. This is appropriate for grouping qualitative features. It is unclear why the green circles have white borders on the map (white and black borders in the legend), while blue circles have black borders. The temperature data are quantitative and displayed using a color sequence that varies by color hue. It appears that a detailed spectral or rainbow sequence, often used to symbolize many classes in a temperature range, has been simplied to ve classes. The visual effects produced on the map are changes in color hue. It is challenging to view the sequence in this quantitative dataset symbolized by colors that are qualitatively different, e.g., green, blue, yellow. The ve classes of data should be displayed by varying color value (light to dark) or by using a diverging scheme around the zero data point with color hue/color value changes for the two directions (negative and positive) in the data set. Color saturation is not used to symbolize data on the map. Circle symbols of different sizes are appropriately used (small to big) to represent quantitative data. However, it is unclear why the size varies in Europe only. Shape is not used to symbolize data on the map. The visual hierarchy of the map is poor. The relationship between observation locations and temperature is difcult to understand. Blue circles (physical systems) completely cover green circles (biological systems) in most locations, while green circles cover blue ones in a few locations. Circles that only change size in Europe are confusing. Actual changes in physical and biological systems (emphasized in the map title and in the legend) are not displayed on the map. Also, the color hues of the circles (blue and green) are very close to the blue and green color hues used to show temperature range.

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surface temperatures 19702004. For the only map published in an IPCC summary report for policymakers, the evaluation reveals specic issues of cartographic quality with this high-visibility map. Our evaluation is of course subjective, and reects: (1) our choice of selected design principles, (2) the evaluation categories, (3) the lack of multiple reviewers, and (4) the reviewers expertise in applying the design principles to the evaluated map. Nevertheless, this kind of cartographic evaluation can provide useful insights into the quality of climate change maps.

5 Toward a research and policy agenda for evaluating climate change maps We have demonstrated how a climate change map can be evaluated. Other climate change maps are likely to vary in quality and could benet from such evaluation. Poor quality climate change maps have implications for climate change research and policymaking. We suggest a modest but important agenda to improve the cartographic quality of climate change maps. (a) Systematic evaluation of the cartographic design and quality of climate change maps should be undertaken to assess and improve climate change maps. Our evaluation was a preliminary demonstration. Evaluation methods should be rened to include: (a) carefully designed sampling plans to select a population of climate change maps to evaluate, (b) expanding the criteria (cartographic principles) to apply in the evaluations, including possible weighting of criteria, (c) assembling a panel of expert cartographers to assess map design using established evaluation techniques, and (d) developing more elaborate and varied evaluation rankings. Such evaluations could provide an important inventory of the state of climate change map design, identify key examples of good design, educate climate scientists about cartographic principles, and help target efforts to improve climate change maps. (b) The impact of climate change maps on climate change research and policymaking should be researched to better understand their specic role and inuence. Such research on the impact of climate change maps includes cartography of course, but could usefully extend to psychology, sociology, and political science. There are several key questions. How do maps inuence or direct scientic efforts and research priorities? What assumptions do scientists make about the audiences for whom they produce the maps, do these assumptions need to change, and if so, how? How effective are climate change maps for synthesizing and interpreting climate change data for policymakers? How are specic maps being used to guide decision-making? What are the implications of inserting inaccurate or misleading maps (purposefully or not) into the policymaking process? What are the cumulative effects of maps produced by scientic organizations when reprinted and propagated through the popular media (unchanged or modied)? How can the cartographic design and persuasiveness of climate change maps be improved? Research to address these questions can illuminate the role of climate change maps, help identify key traits of effective maps, and improve research, policy analysis, and public communication related to climate change.

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(c) Climate change scientists should encourage cartographers to become more directly engaged with climate change research and cartographers should be responsive to such engagement. Cartographers can and should be more effectively engaged in climate science activities. Climate change research teams should include cartographers or personnel well-trained in cartography. Climate change scientists and cartographers should work collaboratively to actively advocate and implement good quality map layout and design. Potential collaborations include (but are not limited to) training of climate research teams, regular map critiques, and experimentation with new cartographic methods, technologies, and map designs.

6 Conclusion Climate change is the most pervasive environmental challenge facing contemporary societies. Its local, regional, and global impacts are (and will increasingly be) extraordinary in scope, complexity, and consequence. The scientic community has a wideranging and intense research effort underway, focused on climate change dynamics, impacts, adaptation, and mitigation alternatives. The results increasingly depend on maps as tools of visualization and analysis, instruments of policy and decisionmaking, and ways of communicating climate change science to the public. As we have suggested, maps have the power to inform or misinform, lead or mislead, clarify or confuse through the use or misuse of design principles. Successful application of good map design is a necessary step in the development of the climate change sciences.
Acknowledgements The authors thank the anonymous reviewers for their review and comment on earlier drafts of this manuscript. Wayde Morse and Jim Snyder provided valued assistance. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 23rd International Cartographic Conference, Moscow, Russian Federation, August 2007.

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